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The scale of the Tory challenge (and why being a lawyer helps Jenrick) – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,091
edited 6:12AM in General
The scale of the Tory challenge (and why being a lawyer helps Jenrick) – politicalbetting.com

The Tories need to make a net gain of 205 seats at the next election to win a majority of 2.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,959
    First. Like Badenoch.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,843
    edited 6:32AM
    Second, like the chance Jenrick might get in 2026 if Badenoch fails to inspire.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,959
    Stuartinromford said:

    Second, like the chance Jenrick might get in 2026 if Badenoch fails to inspire.

    Spectator reporting this weekend that some MPs are already seeing Cleverly as the Prince Over the Water figure should the winner of the contest be found to be not up to it in a couple of years time.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,874
    rottenborough said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Second, like the chance Jenrick might get in 2026 if Badenoch fails to inspire.

    Spectator reporting this weekend that some MPs are already seeing Cleverly as the Prince Over the Water figure should the winner of the contest be found to be not up to it in a couple of years time.

    I wonder if Andrew Burnham smiled and nodded benignly from Manchester on hearing that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,603
    In more world stability news, the rhetoric's been dialled up a bit from North Korea.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1wnxlxxwq2o
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,979
    ydoethur said:

    rottenborough said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Second, like the chance Jenrick might get in 2026 if Badenoch fails to inspire.

    Spectator reporting this weekend that some MPs are already seeing Cleverly as the Prince Over the Water figure should the winner of the contest be found to be not up to it in a couple of years time.

    I wonder if Andrew Burnham smiled and nodded benignly from Manchester on hearing that.
    But Cleverly is an MP unlike Andy Burnham which makes it easier to be the Prince Over The Water.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,874
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    rottenborough said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Second, like the chance Jenrick might get in 2026 if Badenoch fails to inspire.

    Spectator reporting this weekend that some MPs are already seeing Cleverly as the Prince Over the Water figure should the winner of the contest be found to be not up to it in a couple of years time.

    I wonder if Andrew Burnham smiled and nodded benignly from Manchester on hearing that.
    But Cleverly is an MP unlike Andy Burnham which makes it easier to be the Prince Over The Water.
    Burnham was an MP until 2017.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,740
    With respect to the graph, it seems to confirm what we all feel to be true, that there's been an increase in the volatility of the electorate in recent decades.

    If you replayed the 1992-7 Parliament now, with Blair as leader of the opposition, the only reason he wouldn't make twice as many gains is that the Tories would run out of seats to lose.

    So I think we're in a situation where historical prevents are much less useful than previously.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,773
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    rottenborough said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Second, like the chance Jenrick might get in 2026 if Badenoch fails to inspire.

    Spectator reporting this weekend that some MPs are already seeing Cleverly as the Prince Over the Water figure should the winner of the contest be found to be not up to it in a couple of years time.

    I wonder if Andrew Burnham smiled and nodded benignly from Manchester on hearing that.
    But Cleverly is an MP unlike Andy Burnham which makes it easier to be the Prince Over The Water.
    Burnham was an MP until 2017.
    Burnham wasn’t a prince over the water figure in 2017. The leadership contests had exposed him as a windsock, and Cooper as someone with no ideas.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,874
    New Zealand win by 8 wickets. Very fine performance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,874
    Monksfield said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    rottenborough said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Second, like the chance Jenrick might get in 2026 if Badenoch fails to inspire.

    Spectator reporting this weekend that some MPs are already seeing Cleverly as the Prince Over the Water figure should the winner of the contest be found to be not up to it in a couple of years time.

    I wonder if Andrew Burnham smiled and nodded benignly from Manchester on hearing that.
    But Cleverly is an MP unlike Andy Burnham which makes it easier to be the Prince Over The Water.
    Burnham was an MP until 2017.
    Burnham wasn’t a prince over the water figure in 2017. The leadership contests had exposed him as a windsock, and Cooper as someone with no ideas.
    We're talking about James Cleverly. Your point being?

    (And I definitely remember him being talked about as a Corbyn replacement.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,551
    ydoethur said:

    New Zealand win by 8 wickets. Very fine performance.

    Credit to India for making something of a fight of it after that utterly bizarre first innings.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,603
    Dr. Foxy, Sir Roger Mortimer and Henry IV do spring to mind, though.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,843
    edited 7:07AM
    LostPassword said:

    With respect to the graph, it seems to confirm what we all feel to be true, that there's been an increase in the volatility of the electorate in recent decades.

    If you replayed the 1992-7 Parliament now, with Blair as leader of the opposition, the only reason he wouldn't make twice as many gains is that the Tories would run out of seats to lose.

    So I think we're in a situation where historical prevents are much less useful than previously.

    Now there are five parties above or near ten percent of the national vote, FPTP does somewhat screwy things. There is no uniform national swing any more, and success is really about the distribution of your vote.

    Lib Dems have pretty much aced that, and the Labour vote dovetails that pretty well.

    On the other side, Reform and the Conservatives haven't. Hence the "if only we could come to a sordid deal understanding not to tread on each others' toes" crayoning on the electoral map.

    But I struggle to see how that works, and gets communicated to voters, without losing whatever currently passes for the left of the Conservative party.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,148
    It's a great graph in the header, showing the scale of gains that would be needed for a Tory majority, twice what the best previous Tory GE success was. Even with increasing electoral volatility that is a tall order, and it's not obvious that either of the rival leadership candidates is up to the mark.

    Incidentally, we didn't have successive single term governments in the 1970s, the only one since the war has been Heath, everyone else got at least 2, albeit one of the Parliaments being rather short.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,843
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    rottenborough said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Second, like the chance Jenrick might get in 2026 if Badenoch fails to inspire.

    Spectator reporting this weekend that some MPs are already seeing Cleverly as the Prince Over the Water figure should the winner of the contest be found to be not up to it in a couple of years time.

    I wonder if Andrew Burnham smiled and nodded benignly from Manchester on hearing that.
    But Cleverly is an MP unlike Andy Burnham which makes it easier to be the Prince Over The Water.
    Worth noting too that the original "Prince Over the Water" never did become King.

    If you're over the water (Burnham then, Johnson or Mordant now), you have the logistical problem of getting across the water at the right time.

    But if you're not over the water, some of the failings of the deposed leadership splatter onto you.

    But with so few MPs, it will be all hands to the pump. Can anyone dare to turn down a shadow cabinet role without looking awful?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,775
    edited 7:21AM
    Stuartinromford said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    rottenborough said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Second, like the chance Jenrick might get in 2026 if Badenoch fails to inspire.

    Spectator reporting this weekend that some MPs are already seeing Cleverly as the Prince Over the Water figure should the winner of the contest be found to be not up to it in a couple of years time.

    I wonder if Andrew Burnham smiled and nodded benignly from Manchester on hearing that.
    But Cleverly is an MP unlike Andy Burnham which makes it easier to be the Prince Over The Water.
    Worth noting too that the original "Prince Over the Water" never did become King.

    If you're over the water (Burnham then, Johnson or Mordant now), you have the logistical problem of getting across the water at the right time.

    But if you're not over the water, some of the failings of the deposed leadership splatter onto you.

    But with so few MPs, it will be all hands to the pump. Can anyone dare to turn down a shadow cabinet role without looking awful?
    Replacing the dinosaur Chope with the fragrant Goddess Penny would kill two birds with one stone. Christchurch is quite local for the Portsmouth North Princess.

    Lord Chope of Upskirting-on-Solent
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,979
    Foxy said:

    It's a great graph in the header, showing the scale of gains that would be needed for a Tory majority, twice what the best previous Tory GE success was. Even with increasing electoral volatility that is a tall order, and it's not obvious that either of the rival leadership candidates is up to the mark.

    Incidentally, we didn't have successive single term governments in the 1970s, the only one since the war has been Heath, everyone else got at least 2, albeit one of the Parliaments being rather short.

    I've edited to add the words de facto.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,979
    MCC head of ticketing dismissed for gross misconduct

    Exclusive: Simon Wakefield has admitted responsibility for ‘misappropriating complimentary tickets for personal gain and falsifying records’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/10/19/mcc-head-of-ticketing-dismissed-for-gross-misconduct/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,037
    DavidL said:

    Really sad story involving Sir Chris Hoy in the ST today. He has terminal cancer. He is facing it with the same character and willpower that he has brought to everything else in his life but jeez. And his wife has an aggressive form MS as well. Their attitudes are inspirational but 2 young children. Just awful.

    His gold post box is still in Hunter Square in Edinburgh. I pass it going to the office. Really quite gutted.

    Wonderful man.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,979
    LostPassword said:

    With respect to the graph, it seems to confirm what we all feel to be true, that there's been an increase in the volatility of the electorate in recent decades.

    If you replayed the 1992-7 Parliament now, with Blair as leader of the opposition, the only reason he wouldn't make twice as many gains is that the Tories would run out of seats to lose.

    So I think we're in a situation where historical prevents are much less useful than previously.

    A pedant writes that if Blair had doubled his gains in 1997 the Tories would still have had 18 MPs.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,740
    Stuartinromford said:

    LostPassword said:

    With respect to the graph, it seems to confirm what we all feel to be true, that there's been an increase in the volatility of the electorate in recent decades.

    If you replayed the 1992-7 Parliament now, with Blair as leader of the opposition, the only reason he wouldn't make twice as many gains is that the Tories would run out of seats to lose.

    So I think we're in a situation where historical prevents are much less useful than previously.

    Now there are five parties above or near ten percent of the national vote, FPTP does somewhat screwy things. There is no uniform national swing any more, and success is really about the distribution of your vote.

    Lib Dems have pretty much aced that, and the Labour vote dovetails that pretty well.

    On the other side, Reform and the Conservatives haven't. Hence the "if only we could come to a sordid deal understanding not to tread on each others' toes" crayoning on the electoral map.

    But I struggle to see how that works, and gets communicated to voters, without losing whatever currently passes for the left of the Conservative party.
    The parties really don't have as much control over which constituencies their voters live in as your post implies.

    Also, from a mathematical point of view, there is a very fine line between the best and worst possible distribution of votes under FPTP, and the difference between the two is simply a matter of winning more votes overall.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,904
    LostPassword said:

    Just reading about this Musk bribery of the electorate in Pennsylvania and trying to work out why he hasn't had his collar felt. Bearing in mind that the GOP have outlawed providing bottled water to people in hours-long voting queues on the basis of not providing inducements to vote, it seems remarkable that Musk is just getting a pass.

    He'll just say that the fact there's an election on is a coincidence, and he's just promoting free speech and gun rights. The act it's happening now, and he's doing it in a battleground state, is irrelevant. And his brain-dead muskrat fanbois will slurp it all up.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,740
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LostPassword said:

    With respect to the graph, it seems to confirm what we all feel to be true, that there's been an increase in the volatility of the electorate in recent decades.

    If you replayed the 1992-7 Parliament now, with Blair as leader of the opposition, the only reason he wouldn't make twice as many gains is that the Tories would run out of seats to lose.

    So I think we're in a situation where historical prevents are much less useful than previously.

    A pedant writes that if Blair had doubled his gains in 1997 the Tories would still have had 18 MPs.
    Oops. That'll learn me.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,605
    DavidL said:

    Really sad story involving Sir Chris Hoy in the ST today. He has terminal cancer. He is facing it with the same character and willpower that he has brought to everything else in his life but jeez. And his wife has an aggressive form MS as well. Their attitudes are inspirational but 2 young children. Just awful.

    His gold post box is still in Hunter Square in Edinburgh. I pass it going to the office. Really quite gutted.

    Bizarrely I was watching him presenting on the World Championship yesterday and commented how well he looked. He looks very fit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,551
    And in other cheerful news this Sunday morning Trump's campaign already has more than 120 court cases lodged about the election: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/legal-blitz-republicans-lay-groundwork-us-election-challenges-2024-09-29/

    His big NY rally, too close to the election to be much use for that, seems to be a fund raiser for yet more litigation if things go against him.

    With the rain hammering against the windows, Sir Chris and this, I am seriously tempted just to go back to bed.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,740
    JosiasJessop said:

    LostPassword said:

    Just reading about this Musk bribery of the electorate in Pennsylvania and trying to work out why he hasn't had his collar felt. Bearing in mind that the GOP have outlawed providing bottled water to people in hours-long voting queues on the basis of not providing inducements to vote, it seems remarkable that Musk is just getting a pass.

    He'll just say that the fact there's an election on is a coincidence, and he's just promoting free speech and gun rights. The act it's happening now, and he's doing it in a battleground state, is irrelevant. And his brain-dead muskrat fanbois will slurp it all up.
    I'm sure that there were people who didn't think that Al Capone did anything wrong - it was all just business - but that is hardly relevant. What matters are the institutions in society that should be mostly neutral - police, prosecutors, judiciary - and the institutions that scrutinise those institutions and make sure they do their job properly - the Press, civil society more generally.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,328
    edited 7:34AM
    Thatks for the header @TSE , and good morning everyone.

    I note that the successful lawyers seem to be ex-lawyers :smile: .
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,328
    edited 7:35AM
    DavidL said:

    And in other cheerful news this Sunday morning Trump's campaign already has more than 120 court cases lodged about the election: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/legal-blitz-republicans-lay-groundwork-us-election-challenges-2024-09-29/

    His big NY rally, too close to the election to be much use for that, seems to be a fund raiser for yet more litigation if things go against him.

    With the rain hammering against the windows, Sir Chris and this, I am seriously tempted just to go back to bed.

    Trump seems to be very skilled at getting lawyers disbarred or put behind bars.

    (Update: catching up. Yes, very sad news about Sir Chris Hoy. And he didn't show anything of it whilst commentating this weekend.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,551
    edited 7:38AM
    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    And in other cheerful news this Sunday morning Trump's campaign already has more than 120 court cases lodged about the election: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/legal-blitz-republicans-lay-groundwork-us-election-challenges-2024-09-29/

    His big NY rally, too close to the election to be much use for that, seems to be a fund raiser for yet more litigation if things go against him.

    With the rain hammering against the windows, Sir Chris and this, I am seriously tempted just to go back to bed.

    Trump seems to be very skilled at getting lawyers disbarred or put behind bars.

    Sir Chris? I can think of various people who deserve to be Sit Chris - Boardman etc, but which one are we talking about?
    I don't think acting for the Donald is a career enhancing move by any stretch of the imagination. More often than not you don't get paid and when you do you probably get sued.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,695
    DavidL said:

    And in other cheerful news this Sunday morning Trump's campaign already has more than 120 court cases lodged about the election: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/legal-blitz-republicans-lay-groundwork-us-election-challenges-2024-09-29/

    His big NY rally, too close to the election to be much use for that, seems to be a fund raiser for yet more litigation if things go against him.

    With the rain hammering against the windows, Sir Chris and this, I am seriously tempted just to go back to bed.

    Yet a whole batch of those cases was very quickly dispensed with the last time.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,236
    ydoethur said:

    rottenborough said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Second, like the chance Jenrick might get in 2026 if Badenoch fails to inspire.

    Spectator reporting this weekend that some MPs are already seeing Cleverly as the Prince Over the Water figure should the winner of the contest be found to be not up to it in a couple of years time.

    I wonder if Andrew Burnham smiled and nodded benignly from Manchester on hearing that.
    The mention of Burnham raises an interesting new question. What happens when there are Labour held by elections? Two newish possibilities: that the principal challenger in some such cases will be Reform. And, perhaps less likely, that the principal challenger could sometimes be the LDs. (A third of course is the Galloway/Islamist sideshow).
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,918
    kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    Really sad story involving Sir Chris Hoy in the ST today. He has terminal cancer. He is facing it with the same character and willpower that he has brought to everything else in his life but jeez. And his wife has an aggressive form MS as well. Their attitudes are inspirational but 2 young children. Just awful.

    His gold post box is still in Hunter Square in Edinburgh. I pass it going to the office. Really quite gutted.

    Bizarrely I was watching him presenting on the World Championship yesterday and commented how well he looked. He looks very fit.
    Terrible news. A true sporting legend. He’s got a young family too

    Value every day you have folks. Life is cruel.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,328
    edited 7:57AM
    Reading up on Sir Chris, i see it is prostate cancer. Like the NHS testing programme I have received by request to take part in.

    Don't neglect to take those tests when the NHS send them out, gentlemen.

    (Though I note that Sir Chris is even now just under the age of 50, when the screening programme starts. At least he has some time, 2-4 years.)

    Sir Chris told the newspaper: "As unnatural as it feels, this is nature.

    "You know, we were all born and we all die, and this is just part of the process.

    "You remind yourself, aren't I lucky that there is medicine I can take that will fend this off for as long as possible."

    Sir Chris added: “Hand on heart, I’m pretty positive most of the time and I have genuine happiness. This is bigger than the Olympics. It’s bigger than anything. This is about appreciating life and finding joy.”
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4dr9xdxgro
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,489
    Foxy said:

    It's a great graph in the header, showing the scale of gains that would be needed for a Tory majority, twice what the best previous Tory GE success was. Even with increasing electoral volatility that is a tall order, and it's not obvious that either of the rival leadership candidates is up to the mark.

    Incidentally, we didn't have successive single term governments in the 1970s, the only one since the war has been Heath, everyone else got at least 2, albeit one of the Parliaments being rather short.

    It is a great graph.

    BJO will no doubt be on later to explain how Corbyn was the best Labour LOTO ever.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,135
    MattW said:

    Reading up on Sir Chris, i see it is prostate cancer. Like the NHS testing programme I have received by request to take part in.

    Don't neglect to take those tests when the NHS send them out, gentlemen.

    (Though I note that Sir Chris is even now just under the age of 50, when the screening programme starts. At least he has some time, 2-4 years.)

    Sir Chris told the newspaper: "As unnatural as it feels, this is nature.

    "You know, we were all born and we all die, and this is just part of the process.

    "You remind yourself, aren't I lucky that there is medicine I can take that will fend this off for as long as possible."

    Sir Chris added: “Hand on heart, I’m pretty positive most of the time and I have genuine happiness. This is bigger than the Olympics. It’s bigger than anything. This is about appreciating life and finding joy.”
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4dr9xdxgro

    It did also say that it had spread to many other parts though so be tough.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,775
    edited 8:06AM
    Mexicanpete said:

    MattW said:

    Reading up on Sir Chris, i see it is prostate cancer.

    Don't neglect to take those tests when the NHS send them out, gentlemen.

    (Though I note that Sir Chris is even now just under the age of 50, when the screening programme starts.)

    I live in the hope that the two to four year life expectation is overly pessimistic.

    My father was given a similar stage 4 diagnosis, the cancer having metatised to the bone and two to four years to live aged 73. He died aged 87 after a car accident. He was diagnosed at a similar time to Andy Ripley, who unfortunately didn't last quite so long.
    Metastasized
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,918
    malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    Reading up on Sir Chris, i see it is prostate cancer. Like the NHS testing programme I have received by request to take part in.

    Don't neglect to take those tests when the NHS send them out, gentlemen.

    (Though I note that Sir Chris is even now just under the age of 50, when the screening programme starts. At least he has some time, 2-4 years.)

    Sir Chris told the newspaper: "As unnatural as it feels, this is nature.

    "You know, we were all born and we all die, and this is just part of the process.

    "You remind yourself, aren't I lucky that there is medicine I can take that will fend this off for as long as possible."

    Sir Chris added: “Hand on heart, I’m pretty positive most of the time and I have genuine happiness. This is bigger than the Olympics. It’s bigger than anything. This is about appreciating life and finding joy.”
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4dr9xdxgro

    It did also say that it had spread to many other parts though so be tough.
    That’s what happened to my father when he had it and he’d had his removed. It ended up in his brain. It was horrendous.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,454
    The only way that the Tories can make enough gains to get close to a majority at the next election they need to do two things.
    1) Reconcile the divide in the right by merging with or destroying the reform party
    2) have policies which can take centre or centre right votes off the Lib Dems.

    Even the best leader in the world would struggle to do both of those but Jenrick and Badenoch will struggle to do one of them.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,236
    The graph in the article has some interesting features. It shows clearly how all the epoch size gains from opposition are all by Labour under what was believed at the time of the election to be high quality leadership (Attlee, Blair, Starmer); it shows that when Labour appoint a leader that Joe Public think is the wrong choice/wrong brother when a better choice was obvious from Mars they do conspicuously badly (Foot v Healey, E Miliband v D Miliband, Corbyn v Rest of the Human Race).

    It also shows Attlee to be in a class of his own, with a legacy still abundantly around and argued about daily.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,775
    spudgfsh said:

    The only way that the Tories can make enough gains to get close to a majority at the next election they need to do two things.
    1) Reconcile the divide in the right by merging with or destroying the reform party
    2) have policies which can take centre or centre right votes off the Lib Dems.

    Even the best leader in the world would struggle to do both of those but Jenrick and Badenoch will struggle to do one of them.

    Quickly return Johnson to Parliament, Ref and Con join hands like the Liberals and the SDP did with two leaders and bingo ConRef landslide. Johnson and Farage could both be Prime Ministers and live together in the flat at No 11 like Tony Randall and Jack Klugman.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,775
    SouthamObserver said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    Someone fresh and without the vile scented baggage of the Johnson years might work. Brandreth?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,345
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MCC head of ticketing dismissed for gross misconduct

    Exclusive: Simon Wakefield has admitted responsibility for ‘misappropriating complimentary tickets for personal gain and falsifying records’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/10/19/mcc-head-of-ticketing-dismissed-for-gross-misconduct/

    Simon Wakefield can be the new prince over the water. He's got an MP's eye for a freebie; all he needs is a safe seat, possibly in Ethics Essex.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 629
    SouthamObserver said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    I wasn't impressed by Cleverley as a minister - but the reason for his support is that his flaws are less obvious than either Badenoch or Jenrick. I agree with you in theory, but the problem the Tories have in practice is - who is that entirely new superstar?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,236
    spudgfsh said:

    The only way that the Tories can make enough gains to get close to a majority at the next election they need to do two things.
    1) Reconcile the divide in the right by merging with or destroying the reform party
    2) have policies which can take centre or centre right votes off the Lib Dems.

    Even the best leader in the world would struggle to do both of those but Jenrick and Badenoch will struggle to do one of them.

    Yes. Two comments.

    1) Huge numbers of seats they need to recover are Lab/Con (with Reform interloping) not LD/Con. A lot of Tory centrists voted Labour in the seats where LD are not relevant (I am an example). The Tories are not close to getting it back, even though Labour are doing their best to help them.

    2) It is obvious that the Tories not only need Labour to do badly, but also to have a leader and inner circle who make the political weather and climate rather than try to guess what focus groups want and pretend to give it to them. The person who will do this has probably not yet even decided which Oxford college will get their PPE application, and IIRC this year's deadline has just passed.

    The last such person went to Somerville if that's any help, but anyone thinking a repeat of that approach will be the right thing has not got the quality required.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,775
    algarkirk said:

    The graph in the article has some interesting features. It shows clearly how all the epoch size gains from opposition are all by Labour under what was believed at the time of the election to be high quality leadership (Attlee, Blair, Starmer); it shows that when Labour appoint a leader that Joe Public think is the wrong choice/wrong brother when a better choice was obvious from Mars they do conspicuously badly (Foot v Healey, E Miliband v D Miliband, Corbyn v Rest of the Human Race).

    It also shows Attlee to be in a class of his own, with a legacy still abundantly around and argued about daily.

    I am sure the Farage Government of 2029 will quickly unpick Attlee's woke legacy.
  • LDLFLDLF Posts: 159
    edited 8:23AM
    This suggests that the best the Tories can hope for next time round is a 2005-style result, with #TwoTermKeir as the result, and I think that's about right.
    There is the possibility, not of a formal Conservative Reform alliance, but a strategic focus of resources by each party on seats held by Labour/Lib Dem MPs (rather than by Reform or Conservative), rather as there seemed to be an understanding between Labour and the Lib Dems in the last election to divide Tory seats between them.
    But even assuming this, it is a very tall order, and a minority Labour Government with Lib Dem support is more likely than a minority Conservative government with Reform support.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,678
    edited 8:25AM
    I think it unlikely Jenrick or Badenoch would get an outright majority even despite the unpopularity of Labour, what they might get is an outside chance of enough for a deal with Farage to form a government.

    Indeed Electoral Calculus has an MRP poll which is already forecasting a Jenrick led Tory party would get a hung parliament, gaining 57 seats to get to 178 with the SNP up to 48, Reform up to 24 and Labour down to 311.

    Starmer would need confidence and supply from the 58 forecast LDs to stay in power. Badenoch would gain seats too but against her by contrast Labour would still have a majority of 14 the poll forecasts.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_hypopoll_20241017.html

    Being a lawyer certainly helped Starmer, Attlee and Blair and may help Jenrick, Thatcher as a chemist turned lawyer also took the Tories into government from opposition in 1979. Of other Leaders of the Opposition who won a general election in the chart, Heath and Cameron and Wilson did PPE. Churchill did not go to university but Sandhurst after Harrow but was effectively an amateur historian writing some wonderful historical tomes on the likes of his ancestor the Duke of Marlborough
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,855
    edited 8:24AM
    Mexicanpete said:

    MattW said:

    Reading up on Sir Chris, i see it is prostate cancer.

    Don't neglect to take those tests when the NHS send them out, gentlemen.

    (Though I note that Sir Chris is even now just under the age of 50, when the screening programme starts.)

    I live in the hope that the two to four year life expectation is overly pessimistic.

    My father was given a similar stage 4 diagnosis, the cancer having metatised to the bone and two to four years to live aged 73. He died aged 87 after a car accident. He was diagnosed at a similar time to Andy Ripley, who unfortunately didn't last quite so long.
    Yes the predictions of life time remaining are just best guesses and very often turn out to be completely wide of the mark. They make astrology or economic forecasting seem reliable.

    I care nothing at all about professional cycling, and indeed am left utterly cold by any professional sport. Still as a fellow human being, I wish him all the best and hope the diagnosis is wrong. Too bad Vladimir Putin or Kim Jong Un can't get his diagnosis instead.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,328
    edited 8:28AM
    Mexicanpete said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    Someone fresh and without the vile scented baggage of the Johnson years might work. Brandreth?
    If that's the same Brandreth, it would be interesting at PMQ.

    "Mr Speaker, I welcome the Novelty Knit to his appropriate place as leader of the Conservative Party." It's worth my photo quota:


    I wonder if that much different from the winner of the existing pair :wink: . Are there any defenestrated-by-the-voters MPs who could become exhibits in the Brandreth Teddy Bear Museum?

    Reflecting, I guess that Bear Grylls is perhaps the best candidate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,874
    edited 8:24AM
    Mexicanpete said:

    MattW said:

    Reading up on Sir Chris, i see it is prostate cancer.

    Don't neglect to take those tests when the NHS send them out, gentlemen.

    (Though I note that Sir Chris is even now just under the age of 50, when the screening programme starts.)

    I live in the hope that the two to four year life expectation is overly pessimistic.

    My father was given a similar stage 4 diagnosis, the cancer having metatised to the bone and two to four years to live aged 73. He died aged 87 after a car accident. He was diagnosed at a similar time to Andy Ripley, who unfortunately didn't last quite so long.
    Jimmy Carter was given six months to live, just nine years ago.

    An experimental drug changed that and he celebrated his century a week ago.

    Let's hope somebody is bold enough to try something similar with Sir Chris and it has a similarly happy outcome.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,345
    Benpointer said:

    Foxy said:

    It's a great graph in the header, showing the scale of gains that would be needed for a Tory majority, twice what the best previous Tory GE success was. Even with increasing electoral volatility that is a tall order, and it's not obvious that either of the rival leadership candidates is up to the mark.

    Incidentally, we didn't have successive single term governments in the 1970s, the only one since the war has been Heath, everyone else got at least 2, albeit one of the Parliaments being rather short.

    It is a great graph.

    BJO will no doubt be on later to explain how Corbyn was the best Labour LOTO ever.
    Have another look at the graph. Corbyn 2017 is right next to Churchill 1951. (Another similarity is both had Labour Party HQ working against them.)
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,843
    MattW said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    Someone fresh and without the vile scented baggage of the Johnson years might work. Brandreth?
    If that's the same Brandreth, it would be interesting at PMQ.

    "Mr Speaker, I welcome the Novelty Knit to his appropriate place as leader of the Conservative Party." It's worth my photo quota:


    I wonder if that much different from the winner of the existing pair :wink: .
    His daughter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,678
    algarkirk said:

    The graph in the article has some interesting features. It shows clearly how all the epoch size gains from opposition are all by Labour under what was believed at the time of the election to be high quality leadership (Attlee, Blair, Starmer); it shows that when Labour appoint a leader that Joe Public think is the wrong choice/wrong brother when a better choice was obvious from Mars they do conspicuously badly (Foot v Healey, E Miliband v D Miliband, Corbyn v Rest of the Human Race).

    It also shows Attlee to be in a class of his own, with a legacy still abundantly around and argued about daily.

    Foot and Ed Miliband did get early poll leads though and even Corbyn won a shock hung parliament to deprive May of her majority in 2017
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,678
    edited 8:28AM
    spudgfsh said:

    The only way that the Tories can make enough gains to get close to a majority at the next election they need to do two things.
    1) Reconcile the divide in the right by merging with or destroying the reform party
    2) have policies which can take centre or centre right votes off the Lib Dems.

    Even the best leader in the world would struggle to do both of those but Jenrick and Badenoch will struggle to do one of them.

    They can do the former but not the latter unless the LDs prop up an unpopular Labour government
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,550
    algarkirk said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The only way that the Tories can make enough gains to get close to a majority at the next election they need to do two things.
    1) Reconcile the divide in the right by merging with or destroying the reform party
    2) have policies which can take centre or centre right votes off the Lib Dems.

    Even the best leader in the world would struggle to do both of those but Jenrick and Badenoch will struggle to do one of them.

    Yes. Two comments.

    1) Huge numbers of seats they need to recover are Lab/Con (with Reform interloping) not LD/Con. A lot of Tory centrists voted Labour in the seats where LD are not relevant (I am an example). The Tories are not close to getting it back, even though Labour are doing their best to help them.

    2) It is obvious that the Tories not only need Labour to do badly, but also to have a leader and inner circle who make the political weather and climate rather than try to guess what focus groups want and pretend to give it to them. The person who will do this has probably not yet even decided which Oxford college will get their PPE application, and IIRC this year's deadline has just passed.

    The last such person went to Somerville if that's any help, but anyone thinking a repeat of that approach will be the right thing has not got the quality required.
    Mind, that last such person didn't even read PPE, so that opens things up a bit ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,678
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MCC head of ticketing dismissed for gross misconduct

    Exclusive: Simon Wakefield has admitted responsibility for ‘misappropriating complimentary tickets for personal gain and falsifying records’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/10/19/mcc-head-of-ticketing-dismissed-for-gross-misconduct/

    Some free tickets going to punters in compensation?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,874
    Hmmmm.

    Speaking of Musk and dodgy practices, here's Mary Creagh on a landfill scandal that very much exercised @Tissue_Price while MP for the area:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv2gdng4pwo

    Her logic is ridiculous. I mean, paying her a salary has never been a good use of public money given she's terminally dimwitted, but that's not stopped her from taking it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,775
    HYUFD said:

    I think it unlikely Jenrick or Badenoch would get an outright majority even despite the unpopularity of Labour, what they might get is an outside chance of enough for a deal with Farage to form a government.

    Indeed Electoral Calculus has an MRP poll which is already forecasting a Jenrick led Tory party would get a hung parliament, gaining 57 seats to get to 178 with the SNP up to 48, Reform up to 24 and Labour down to 311.

    Starmer would need confidence and supply from the 58 forecast LDs to stay in power. Badenoch would gain seats too but against her by contrast Labour would still have a majority of 14.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_hypopoll_20241017.html

    Being a lawyer certainly helped Starmer, Attlee and Blair and may help Jenrick, Thatcher as a chemist turned lawyer also took the Tories into government from opposition in 1979. Of other Leaders of the Opposition who won a general election, Heath and Cameron and Wilson did PPE. Churchill did not go to university but Sandhurst after Harrow but was effectively an amateur historian writing some wonderful historical tomes on the likes of his ancestor the Duke of Marlborough

    It's a bit early to be looking at Hung Parliaments. Labour either fail and the party implodes at the next election or they turn the ship around and retain a reduced majority. You will have a better idea after four years rather than four months. Even if Labour royally fail, a ConRef alliance would be helpful to the Tories, but otherwise there is no guarantee the Conservatives even get close to being the largest party.

    Labour may be despised for crashing the golden legacy but I doubt the Tories are that far behind them in terms of unpopularity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,307
    I didn't know Jenrick was a lawyer, so I'll add that as another knock against him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,678
    edited 8:33AM
    rottenborough said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Second, like the chance Jenrick might get in 2026 if Badenoch fails to inspire.

    Spectator reporting this weekend that some MPs are already seeing Cleverly as the Prince Over the Water figure should the winner of the contest be found to be not up to it in a couple of years time.

    Cleverly got just 30% of Tory MPs behind him when he was eliminated in the last MPs round, significantly behind the 38% of Tory MPs who voted for Rishi in the final MPs round in 2022. Being opposition leader for Jenrick or Badenoch trashing a now unpopular Labour government will also be far easier than being immediate PM of an already unpopular Tory government was for Truss
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,236
    Mexicanpete said:

    algarkirk said:

    The graph in the article has some interesting features. It shows clearly how all the epoch size gains from opposition are all by Labour under what was believed at the time of the election to be high quality leadership (Attlee, Blair, Starmer); it shows that when Labour appoint a leader that Joe Public think is the wrong choice/wrong brother when a better choice was obvious from Mars they do conspicuously badly (Foot v Healey, E Miliband v D Miliband, Corbyn v Rest of the Human Race).

    It also shows Attlee to be in a class of his own, with a legacy still abundantly around and argued about daily.

    I am sure the Farage Government of 2029 will quickly unpick Attlee's woke legacy.
    The most casual glance at the average Reform voter in Clacton shows with great clarity how delighted they will be to learn that health care is now based on the ability to pay + a randomly distributed charity sector, as are the universities, and what used to fund their state pension now is left in the pockets of bankers and hedge funds. Their social housing pensioner bungalow has been sold to Rachman Housing Inc, based in Panama.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,775
    MattW said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    Someone fresh and without the vile scented baggage of the Johnson years might work. Brandreth?
    If that's the same Brandreth, it would be interesting at PMQ.

    "Mr Speaker, I welcome the Novelty Knit to his appropriate place as leader of the Conservative Party." It's worth my photo quota:


    I wonder if that much different from the winner of the existing pair :wink: . Are there any defenestrated-by-the-voters MPs who could become exhibits in the Brandreth Teddy Bear Museum?

    Reflecting, I guess that Bear Grylls is perhaps the best candidate.
    Wrong Brandreth. His spawn is now MP for his former seat of course. I am not sure of her knitwear preferences or how to spell her peculiar name.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,307
    SouthamObserver said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    It's time to start looking at new intakers for the next leader, and by the very fact of them being new it makes selecting the likely options near impossible. Exciting times.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,678
    kle4 said:

    I didn't know Jenrick was a lawyer, so I'll add that as another knock against him.

    Jenrick would be the first ex city solicitor PM, Attlee, Blair, Thatcher and Starmer were barristers and Lloyd George was a country solicitor
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 807
    Kim takes the crown. Labour win the next election or she tries to bring back the Reform lot to the Tories. If that fails she does a deal with them and wins the next election. About a 10.0% chance of that. Labour win the next election. If Trump wins I can see quite a few problems for Labour dealing with the new USA administration. Still, Vance may take over after 18 months although I am not sure that will be any better. Harris save the day. I really hope so!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,307
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    And in other cheerful news this Sunday morning Trump's campaign already has more than 120 court cases lodged about the election: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/legal-blitz-republicans-lay-groundwork-us-election-challenges-2024-09-29/

    His big NY rally, too close to the election to be much use for that, seems to be a fund raiser for yet more litigation if things go against him.

    With the rain hammering against the windows, Sir Chris and this, I am seriously tempted just to go back to bed.

    Yet a whole batch of those cases was very quickly dispensed with the last time.
    Much better organised this time. And the court cases were often just to give a pretext for politicians to say the outcome should not be certified - even after the cases were dismissed.

    Several states will try to not certify the election results this year, I am sure.

    Of course they will struggle if they try sending fake electors since it's not one of their own counting this time (unless they succeed in getting the real ones to certify phony results, since the VP cannot reject certified electors).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,984
    algarkirk said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    algarkirk said:

    The graph in the article has some interesting features. It shows clearly how all the epoch size gains from opposition are all by Labour under what was believed at the time of the election to be high quality leadership (Attlee, Blair, Starmer); it shows that when Labour appoint a leader that Joe Public think is the wrong choice/wrong brother when a better choice was obvious from Mars they do conspicuously badly (Foot v Healey, E Miliband v D Miliband, Corbyn v Rest of the Human Race).

    It also shows Attlee to be in a class of his own, with a legacy still abundantly around and argued about daily.

    I am sure the Farage Government of 2029 will quickly unpick Attlee's woke legacy.
    The most casual glance at the average Reform voter in Clacton shows with great clarity how delighted they will be to learn that health care is now based on the ability to pay + a randomly distributed charity sector, as are the universities, and what used to fund their state pension now is left in the pockets of bankers and hedge funds. Their social housing pensioner bungalow has been sold to Rachman Housing Inc, based in Panama.
    “health care is now based on the ability to pay + a randomly distributed charity sector, as are the universities, and what used to fund their state pension now is left in the pockets of bankers and hedge funds. Their social housing pensioner bungalow has been sold to Rachman Housing Inc, based in Panama.”

    But what will the Reform government do to change the status quo from this?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,307
    spudgfsh said:

    The only way that the Tories can make enough gains to get close to a majority at the next election they need to do two things.
    1) Reconcile the divide in the right by merging with or destroying the reform party
    2) have policies which can take centre or centre right votes off the Lib Dems.

    Even the best leader in the world would struggle to do both of those but Jenrick and Badenoch will struggle to do one of them.

    It's also why they might only try one to start with. There's time to try the second after.

    I'd go 1 then 2 as 2 will exacerbate the difficulties with 1 whilst you might get away with focusing on 1 without 2 being that engaged.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,984
    ydoethur said:

    Hmmmm.

    Speaking of Musk and dodgy practices, here's Mary Creagh on a landfill scandal that very much exercised @Tissue_Price while MP for the area:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv2gdng4pwo

    Her logic is ridiculous. I mean, paying her a salary has never been a good use of public money given she's terminally dimwitted, but that's not stopped her from taking it.

    Then again, a public enquiry is a good way to kick the can down the road for a decade, while providing employment for lawyers and various experts.

    Oh, and block any legal action while it is going on.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,775
    ydoethur said:

    Hmmmm.

    Speaking of Musk and dodgy practices, here's Mary Creagh on a landfill scandal that very much exercised @Tissue_Price while MP for the area:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv2gdng4pwo

    Her logic is ridiculous. I mean, paying her a salary has never been a good use of public money given she's terminally dimwitted, but that's not stopped her from taking it.

    I am quite content to offer my expertise to Mary Creagh for a modest cost. I suspect I am better qualified.

    Firstly to prevent this happening again ( OK, I know it is already happening again throughout the UK) don't bury gypsum/plasterboard. It is illegal but that doesn't seem to stop the practice, and secondly disbar convicted environmental criminals ( I used to be a colleague of this one) from operating any waste disposal or recovery facility. Thirdly, replace the EA/NRW/SEPA/NIEA with a more robust regulator (see the river pollution debacle). Perhaps Fred Carno's Army.

    My fee, which is in the post to 10 Downing Street for saving the gazillions of pounds about to be wasted on an inquiry is a mere £1m (have I undersold myself?)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,457
    MattW said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    Someone fresh and without the vile scented baggage of the Johnson years might work. Brandreth?
    If that's the same Brandreth, it would be interesting at PMQ.

    "Mr Speaker, I welcome the Novelty Knit to his appropriate place as leader of the Conservative Party." It's worth my photo quota:


    I wonder if that much different from the winner of the existing pair :wink: . Are there any defenestrated-by-the-voters MPs who could become exhibits in the Brandreth Teddy Bear Museum?

    Reflecting, I guess that Bear Grylls is perhaps the best candidate.
    Aphra, Gyles' daughter, is Tory MP for Chester South and Eddisbury. She's effective and personable. Tory Leader in ten years time?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,773
    PJH said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    I wasn't impressed by Cleverley as a minister - but the reason for his support is that his flaws are less obvious than either Badenoch or Jenrick. I agree with you in theory, but the problem the Tories have in practice is - who is that entirely new superstar?
    Rory Stewart
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,148
    algarkirk said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    algarkirk said:

    The graph in the article has some interesting features. It shows clearly how all the epoch size gains from opposition are all by Labour under what was believed at the time of the election to be high quality leadership (Attlee, Blair, Starmer); it shows that when Labour appoint a leader that Joe Public think is the wrong choice/wrong brother when a better choice was obvious from Mars they do conspicuously badly (Foot v Healey, E Miliband v D Miliband, Corbyn v Rest of the Human Race).

    It also shows Attlee to be in a class of his own, with a legacy still abundantly around and argued about daily.

    I am sure the Farage Government of 2029 will quickly unpick Attlee's woke legacy.
    The most casual glance at the average Reform voter in Clacton shows with great clarity how delighted they will be to learn that health care is now based on the ability to pay + a randomly distributed charity sector, as are the universities, and what used to fund their state pension now is left in the pockets of bankers and hedge funds. Their social housing pensioner bungalow has been sold to Rachman Housing Inc, based in Panama.
    So, very like your average Joe MAGA in Appalachia voting for an end to their healthcare, and tax cuts for hedge funds?

    It might just work.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,874
    Mexicanpete said:

    ydoethur said:

    Hmmmm.

    Speaking of Musk and dodgy practices, here's Mary Creagh on a landfill scandal that very much exercised @Tissue_Price while MP for the area:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv2gdng4pwo

    Her logic is ridiculous. I mean, paying her a salary has never been a good use of public money given she's terminally dimwitted, but that's not stopped her from taking it.

    I am quite content to offer my expertise to Mary Creagh for a modest cost. I suspect I am better qualified.

    Firstly to prevent this happening again ( OK, I know it is already happening again throughout the UK) don't bury gypsum/plasterboard. It is illegal but that doesn't seem to stop the practice, and secondly disbar convicted environmental criminals ( I used to be a colleague of this one) from operating any waste disposal or recovery facility. Thirdly, replace the EA/NRW/SEPA/NIEA with a more robust regulator (see the river pollution debacle). Perhaps Fred Carno's Army.

    My fee, which is in the post to 10 Downing Street for saving the gazillions of pounds about to be wasted on an inquiry is a mere £1m (have I undersold myself?)
    As they said of Fred Carno's army:

    We cannot fight
    We cannot fuck
    What bleeding use are we?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 69,663
    LostPassword said:

    Just reading about this Musk bribery of the electorate in Pennsylvania and trying to work out why he hasn't had his collar felt. Bearing in mind that the GOP have outlawed providing bottled water to people in hours-long voting queues on the basis of not providing inducements to vote, it seems remarkable that Musk is just getting a pass.

    Does it matter either way now ?

    Trump will pardon him if elected.
    After campaigning against a deep state which arrested an American hero…
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,328
    edited 8:54AM
    Stuartinromford said:

    MattW said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    Someone fresh and without the vile scented baggage of the Johnson years might work. Brandreth?
    If that's the same Brandreth, it would be interesting at PMQ.

    "Mr Speaker, I welcome the Novelty Knit to his appropriate place as leader of the Conservative Party." It's worth my photo quota:


    I wonder if that much different from the winner of the existing pair :wink: .
    His daughter.
    Thank-you. I considered myself more educated, now.

    I note that she is phonetically the MP for South Chester and Teddiesbury.

    More seriously, has there been in recent years an MP becoming leader of a major party who has been in the Commons for just a couple months? Perhaps that would have been someone 'parachuted in', if that has happened.

    (The upthread suggestion of leader in 10 years sounds credible. But that's three terms for Mr Starmer, which some may not relish.)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,775
    algarkirk said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    algarkirk said:

    The graph in the article has some interesting features. It shows clearly how all the epoch size gains from opposition are all by Labour under what was believed at the time of the election to be high quality leadership (Attlee, Blair, Starmer); it shows that when Labour appoint a leader that Joe Public think is the wrong choice/wrong brother when a better choice was obvious from Mars they do conspicuously badly (Foot v Healey, E Miliband v D Miliband, Corbyn v Rest of the Human Race).

    It also shows Attlee to be in a class of his own, with a legacy still abundantly around and argued about daily.

    I am sure the Farage Government of 2029 will quickly unpick Attlee's woke legacy.
    The most casual glance at the average Reform voter in Clacton shows with great clarity how delighted they will be to learn that health care is now based on the ability to pay + a randomly distributed charity sector, as are the universities, and what used to fund their state pension now is left in the pockets of bankers and hedge funds. Their social housing pensioner bungalow has been sold to Rachman Housing Inc, based in Panama.
    Yes but foreigners will also lose these benefits too. Is there a downside?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,196
    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 69,663
    Stuartinromford said:

    MattW said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    Someone fresh and without the vile scented baggage of the Johnson years might work. Brandreth?
    If that's the same Brandreth, it would be interesting at PMQ.

    "Mr Speaker, I welcome the Novelty Knit to his appropriate place as leader of the Conservative Party." It's worth my photo quota:


    I wonder if that much different from the winner of the existing pair :wink: .
    His daughter.
    I can see the family resemblance in the picture…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,874
    MattW said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    MattW said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    Someone fresh and without the vile scented baggage of the Johnson years might work. Brandreth?
    If that's the same Brandreth, it would be interesting at PMQ.

    "Mr Speaker, I welcome the Novelty Knit to his appropriate place as leader of the Conservative Party." It's worth my photo quota:


    I wonder if that much different from the winner of the existing pair :wink: .
    His daughter.
    Thank-you. I considered myself more educated, now.

    I note that she is phonetically the MP for South Chester and Teddiesbury.

    More seriously, has there been in recent years an MP becoming leader of a major party who has been in the Commons for just a couple months? Perhaps that would have been someone 'parachuted in', if that has happened.
    Does Vince Cable count?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,855
    edited 8:55AM
    On topic, the Conservatives do indeed have a lot to do to win in 2029, but that Labour holds a lot of seats now isn't one of their challenges. As I showed on here many years ago, there's no convincing correlation between general election results five years apart, and the result of the last election, where a large Conservative majority was turned into a gigantic Labour one, will make that lack of a relationship even more pronounced. I might update my analysis at some point, though I appreciate the sophisticated econometrics needed isn't everybody's bag.

    The Conservative challenges are all about reuniting the right while avoiding seepage to the centre, finding a leader who is at least tolerable, developing some policies or at least a vision that resonates and hoping the electorate forgets the worst features of the last regime. Above all they need to hope that Labour's poor start isn't just teething troubles, it's how they are going to govern. That way forward would be the same if Labour had a majority of 1 or 600.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,917
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MCC head of ticketing dismissed for gross misconduct

    Exclusive: Simon Wakefield has admitted responsibility for ‘misappropriating complimentary tickets for personal gain and falsifying records’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/10/19/mcc-head-of-ticketing-dismissed-for-gross-misconduct/

    At the same time as charging the regular punter £150 a ticket....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,917
    edited 8:59AM
    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore. And Threads...is that still going? I don't think I ever heard anybody talk about Threads other than the likes of the BBC who got very excited for a day about it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,328
    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Does Bluesky embed here, or are we on paste + link?

    ‪ᴊɪᴍ ᴅᴀᴠɪs‬ ‪@thatjimdavis.bsky.social‬ - 21m
    It's funny how 'vacuum' and 'fuck you' sound similar when spoken by a 3 year old. It's marginally less funny in Currys.
    https://bsky.app/profile/thatjimdavis.bsky.social/post/3l6wlo3uivl2t
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,212
    ydoethur said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    ydoethur said:

    Hmmmm.

    Speaking of Musk and dodgy practices, here's Mary Creagh on a landfill scandal that very much exercised @Tissue_Price while MP for the area:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv2gdng4pwo

    Her logic is ridiculous. I mean, paying her a salary has never been a good use of public money given she's terminally dimwitted, but that's not stopped her from taking it.

    I am quite content to offer my expertise to Mary Creagh for a modest cost. I suspect I am better qualified.

    Firstly to prevent this happening again ( OK, I know it is already happening again throughout the UK) don't bury gypsum/plasterboard. It is illegal but that doesn't seem to stop the practice, and secondly disbar convicted environmental criminals ( I used to be a colleague of this one) from operating any waste disposal or recovery facility. Thirdly, replace the EA/NRW/SEPA/NIEA with a more robust regulator (see the river pollution debacle). Perhaps Fred Carno's Army.

    My fee, which is in the post to 10 Downing Street for saving the gazillions of pounds about to be wasted on an inquiry is a mere £1m (have I undersold myself?)
    As they said of Fred Carno's army:

    We cannot fight
    We cannot fuck
    What bleeding use are we?
    Was familiar with the phrase Fred Karno's last stand.

    Cool biography -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Karno?wprov=sfla1
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,196
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore.
    Possibly. Probably.

    The difference now is it's immediately a much nicer place to be; my timeline isn't spammed with far-right accounts and the search function actually works.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,033
    kle4 said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    It's time to start looking at new intakers for the next leader, and by the very fact of them being new it makes selecting the likely options near impossible. Exciting times.
    26 new Tory MPs elected on July 4th, though quite a few were retreads of various kinds.

    The Parliamentary Party is not exactly overburdened with fresh talents. Meanwhile checking out the resumes of the 64 new Liberal Democrat MPs there is real experience and talent in a variety of fields and several who have the potential to be national figures.

    The Tory brain drain,so obvious in their leadership campaign, applies across the party.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,775
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I didn't know Jenrick was a lawyer, so I'll add that as another knock against him.

    Jenrick would be the first ex city solicitor PM, Attlee, Blair, Thatcher and Starmer were barristers and Lloyd George was a country solicitor
    Besides the fact he is toast, your point is?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,124
    ..
    spudgfsh said:

    The only way that the Tories can make enough gains to get close to a majority at the next election they need to do two things.
    1) Reconcile the divide in the right by merging with or destroying the reform party
    2) have policies which can take centre or centre right votes off the Lib Dems.

    Even the best leader in the world would struggle to do both of those but Jenrick and Badenoch will struggle to do one of them.

    I don't think the Conservatives will manage (1) as long as Farage is around. I think their real hope is he disappears. Europe is littered with the remains of Centre Right parties that have at inconsistently tried to co-opt and beat far right alternatives.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,874
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I didn't know Jenrick was a lawyer, so I'll add that as another knock against him.

    Jenrick would be the first ex city solicitor PM, Attlee, Blair, Thatcher and Starmer were barristers and Lloyd George was a country solicitor
    Your reasoning fails on one significant point...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,307
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore. And Threads...is that still going? I don't think I ever heard anybody talk about Threads other than the likes of the BBC who got very excited for a day about it.
    Musk may have wanted to back out of the purchase of twitter, and it may be struggling with various issues, but it remains the only game in town.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,917
    edited 9:07AM
    Eabhal said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore.
    Possibly. Probably.

    The difference now is it's immediately a much nicer place to be; my timeline isn't spammed with far-right accounts and the search function actually works.
    My personal For You timeline doesn't have very much of that as I don't follow politics on twitter, but even if it is a problem, there is a really easy solution, you just use the Following tab.
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