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That way madness lies – politicalbetting.com

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited October 16
    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    Confusion? Miss a turn off and try to get back to it? Come off a junction round a bout and turn down the wrong road (the motorway exit, rather than the way on).
    What's weird is that the police were already on their way to intercept the driver, and there was a post on social media saying that the signs on the motorway were warning people that there was a car coming the other way.
    As a matter of interest how do the police intercept a car travelling the wrong way on a motorway

    I am familiar with the area and it is fast and if near Tebay services there is a service road between both sides of the motorway and it could be the driver went down the wrong slip, though this is just guess work

    The closing speed of the cars could have been near 140mph or more
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,572
    kyf_100 said:

    Scrap the triple lock. Starmer and Reeves are prats.

    The UK throughout my life has been defined by making the lives of people older than me better.

    In my 20s, it was cheap credit and cheap housing that let people in their 40s become BTL millionaires.

    By the time I hit that age... houses were too expensive and Osborne's reforms mean you get taxed on income, not profit. Also, you're screwed if you're a renter as a result of that, because lack of housebuilding means Mr Osborne's tax reforms get passed on to you.

    Now pensioners wealth has to be protected at all costs. Despite the fact that many are sitting on hundreds of thousands of tax free gains in their property, and even those that aren't are guaranteed a pay rise when millions of us are not.

    My father owns a string of houses with a net value of at least three million (lucky him) and uses his winter fuel allowance to keep the damp out of the one spare house he doesn't rent out but pops back to when he's occasionally back in the UK in the summer. The WFA should be means tested and if we're really saying it can't be done then it's scary that the state can't distinguish a millionaire pensioner from one on 10k a year.
    While at lunch last week I overheard a woman moaning about the loss of her WFA: "It covered the cost of heating the pool while we're in our villa in Spain through the winter."

    She did at least spend it on fuel, in the winter, I guess.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473

    TimS said:

    maxh said:

    I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.

    I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.
    I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?

    What beats it?
    Pratt's Bottom.
    My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.
    You'll like Titty Hill in West Sussex then.
    For the Truss fans there are both Nether Wallop and Middle Wallop in the Test Valley.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    TimT said:

    A very interesting poll out today in the US.

    The 7 pollsters with the best track record since 2008 have all been putting a Dem lead at 2-3%. We now have a pollster breaking that trend. Marist put the Dems up by 5%. If that gets backed up by other pollsters then that would be significant.

    The previous day's polls saw over 60% of reported polls coming from Rep Pty-linked concerns. I'm doing a litle work on the consequences of that. They tend to give the Reps 1-2% compared to other pollsters. They also have the Trump'vote within 0.5% in each of the seven battleground states. That would be very surprising.

    They are clearly gaming the system. Why is a very important question. The fear is that they intend to argue that Trump ‘winning’ the polling averages ‘proves’ the results (when Harris wins) are fraudulent.
    Reckon the Why some partisan pollsters would want to game the system, is that subset of swing voters who want to vote for the winner. Thus convincing them YOUR candidate is winning, is key part of persuading them to vote for them.

    Recall reading about poll in USA, taken a year or so after 1960 election, which asked people how they'd voted in that POTUS election - JFK won by several more percenage points in memory than in actuality!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    viewcode said:

    TimT said:

    A very interesting poll out today in the US.

    The 7 pollsters with the best track record since 2008 have all been putting a Dem lead at 2-3%. We now have a pollster breaking that trend. Marist put the Dems up by 5%. If that gets backed up by other pollsters then that would be significant.

    The previous day's polls saw over 60% of reported polls coming from Rep Pty-linked concerns. I'm doing a litle work on the consequences of that. They tend to give the Reps 1-2% compared to other pollsters. They also have the Trump'vote within 0.5% in each of the seven battleground states. That would be very surprising.

    They are clearly gaming the system. Why is a very important question. The fear is that they intend to argue that Trump ‘winning’ the polling averages ‘proves’ the results (when Harris wins) are fraudulent.
    How do you identify which are the good polls and the bad polls? Which of the pollsters in this are bad?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election
    Rasmussen in 2022 had an average 5.1% error, 100% in favour of the GOP. InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar are also highly suspect. There are also others. The polls published often have a sample size of 500 or 600.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423

    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    Confusion? Miss a turn off and try to get back to it? Come off a junction round a bout and turn down the wrong road (the motorway exit, rather than the way on).
    What's weird is that the police were already on their way to intercept the driver, and there was a post on social media saying that the signs on the motorway were warning people that there was a car coming the other way.
    As a matter of interest how do the police intercept a car travelling the wrong way on a motorway

    I am familiar with the area and it is fast and if near Tebay services there is a service road between both sides of the motorway and it could be the driver went down the wrong slip, though this is just guess work

    The closing speed of the cars could have been near 140mph or more
    Went down the wrong slip and carried on driving in the wrong direction?

    For an obstruction the police would get in front of the traffic and do a rolling roadblock. No idea what they'd do after that with someone coming the other way.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    kyf_100 said:

    Scrap the triple lock. Starmer and Reeves are prats.

    The UK throughout my life has been defined by making the lives of people older than me better.

    In my 20s, it was cheap credit and cheap housing that let people in their 40s become BTL millionaires.

    By the time I hit that age... houses were too expensive and Osborne's reforms mean you get taxed on income, not profit. Also, you're screwed if you're a renter as a result of that, because lack of housebuilding means Mr Osborne's tax reforms get passed on to you.

    Now pensioners wealth has to be protected at all costs. Despite the fact that many are sitting on hundreds of thousands of tax free gains in their property, and even those that aren't are guaranteed a pay rise when millions of us are not.

    My father owns a string of houses with a net value of at least three million (lucky him) and uses his winter fuel allowance to keep the damp out of the one spare house he doesn't rent out but pops back to when he's occasionally back in the UK in the summer. The WFA should be means tested and if we're really saying it can't be done then it's scary that the state can't distinguish a millionaire pensioner from one on 10k a year.
    While at lunch last week I overheard a woman moaning about the loss of her WFA: "It covered the cost of heating the pool while we're in our villa in Spain through the winter."

    She did at least spend it on fuel, in the winter, I guess.
    I mean in a way it would be fair play if governments had been honest about it and said “for the poor it’s necessary to stop people dying of hypothermia, but for more comfortably off pensioners it’s a little bonus, a bit of joy to sweeten the sunset years of their lives. And who would begrudge a bit of joy and a splash of luxury for dear Granny?”
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    From Trump’s town hall with women:

    Georgia voter: Women are entitled to do what we need to do with our bodies. It’s necessary to save our own lives. Why is the government involved in women's basic rights?

    Trump: Yeah, I think it's great. For 52 years, they wanted to end Roe v. Wade. We were able to do it
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    edited October 16
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    maxh said:

    I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.

    I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.
    I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?

    What beats it?
    Pratt's Bottom.
    My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.
    Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".

    For full staff list:
    https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html
    Nominative determinism is always great to see. My favourite of the famous ones is Mark de Man, the Belgian footballer.
    I used to work with a surgeon Mr Pain and was at medical School with Sandra De'Ath, though I think she practised under another surname.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,305
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,572
    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Barnesian said:

    Telegraph

    The triple lock will raise 100 million next year as some pensioners are drawn into tax

    Utterly daft comment - it will cost many billion

    Indeed, and because the DWP refuses or is unable to deduct ICT in the way every employer and every pension company in the land has too, those spensioners without private pensions will have to complete self-assessments. Often for a few £10s of tax due.

    Utter madness.
    Increase the personal allowance a bit.
    I wouldn't be surprised for Reeves to increase the allowance to sugar the pill of higher taxes and borrowing
    I suspect it will be the return of the age related personal allowance. A little extra for over 66s only to offset the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance.
    I think if pensioners have high enough incomes that bring them into tax, they should pay it like the rest of us.

    A better offset for WFP would be to expand eligibility for PC a bit.
    So £13,000 pa income for a pensioner is 'like the rest of us' ?
    No, actually.

    Pensioners typically have much lower housing costs (70% own their homes outright, and only 7% privately rent) and fewer dependents, so their equivalised household income after housing costs are, on average, much higher than the rest of the population even with the same income.

    If we were to adjust the personal allowance to take account of these factors, it would be significantly lower, on average, for pensioners.

    Of course, a significant proportion of pensioners are in poverty, which makes the vast wealth and high incomes of other pensioners all the more intolerable when it comes to freebies like WFP. Means testing pensioner benefits, using something like an expanded Pension Credit, is by far the most equitable option.
    do you have evidence that 70% own their homes outright, sounds bollox to me. I can see you at forefront of pensioner culling as well, some crazy thing against pensioners whilst being loaded, pretty shabby to say the least. Hopefully you have feck all when you are a pensioner.
    England and Wales, admittedly. I'll fish the stats for Scotland out for you.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/householdcharacteristicsbytenureenglandandwales/census2021
    Crowds now gathering on PB to watch that rare phenomenon the fabled "@malcolmg apology".
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534

    "Today, the Guardian, alongside @hopenothate , today publish an in depth undercover investigation into the efforts of a network of far right race and IQ obsessives, who have been trying to influence discourse about race science."

    https://x.com/AdamRutherford/status/1846537873761116295

    It's a good job we don't have a race and IQ obsessive on here...

    Rutherford and Hope Not Hate are aggressive activists. I'd take anything they say with a pinch of salt.
    Good advice for ANYTHING you read on Twatter AND rest of web. Also anywhere else!

    In this case, the proposition that racists are trying to egg the rancid pudding of inherent non-White inferiority via tests of (alleged) IQ, is hardly a stretch, is it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,572
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    maxh said:

    I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.

    I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.
    I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?

    What beats it?
    Pratt's Bottom.
    My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.
    Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".

    For full staff list:
    https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html
    Nominative determinism is always great to see. My favourite of the famous ones is Mark de Man, the Belgian footballer.
    I used to work with a surgeon Mr Pain and was at medical School with Sandra Death, though I think she practised under another surname.
    If she was American, it was probably Sandra Passing.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    "Today, the Guardian, alongside @hopenothate , today publish an in depth undercover investigation into the efforts of a network of far right race and IQ obsessives, who have been trying to influence discourse about race science."

    https://x.com/AdamRutherford/status/1846537873761116295

    It's a good job we don't have a race and IQ obsessive on here...

    Rutherford and Hope Not Hate are aggressive activists. I'd take anything they say with a pinch of salt.
    Agree about HnH. Not about Rutherford, though. And they have a point with the 'science' these people invent.
  • Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    Confusion? Miss a turn off and try to get back to it? Come off a junction round a bout and turn down the wrong road (the motorway exit, rather than the way on).
    What's weird is that the police were already on their way to intercept the driver, and there was a post on social media saying that the signs on the motorway were warning people that there was a car coming the other way.
    As a matter of interest how do the police intercept a car travelling the wrong way on a motorway

    I am familiar with the area and it is fast and if near Tebay services there is a service road between both sides of the motorway and it could be the driver went down the wrong slip, though this is just guess work

    The closing speed of the cars could have been near 140mph or more
    Went down the wrong slip and carried on driving in the wrong direction?

    For an obstruction the police would get in front of the traffic and do a rolling roadblock. No idea what they'd do after that with someone coming the other way.
    I understand a rolling roadblock but not how to stop a rogue car driving the wrong way on a motorway
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    edited October 16

    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Barnesian said:

    Telegraph

    The triple lock will raise 100 million next year as some pensioners are drawn into tax

    Utterly daft comment - it will cost many billion

    Indeed, and because the DWP refuses or is unable to deduct ICT in the way every employer and every pension company in the land has too, those spensioners without private pensions will have to complete self-assessments. Often for a few £10s of tax due.

    Utter madness.
    Increase the personal allowance a bit.
    I wouldn't be surprised for Reeves to increase the allowance to sugar the pill of higher taxes and borrowing
    I suspect it will be the return of the age related personal allowance. A little extra for over 66s only to offset the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance.
    I think if pensioners have high enough incomes that bring them into tax, they should pay it like the rest of us.

    A better offset for WFP would be to expand eligibility for PC a bit.
    So £13,000 pa income for a pensioner is 'like the rest of us' ?
    No, actually.

    Pensioners typically have much lower housing costs (70% own their homes outright, and only 7% privately rent) and fewer dependents, so their equivalised household income after housing costs are, on average, much higher than the rest of the population even with the same income.

    If we were to adjust the personal allowance to take account of these factors, it would be significantly lower, on average, for pensioners.

    Of course, a significant proportion of pensioners are in poverty, which makes the vast wealth and high incomes of other pensioners all the more intolerable when it comes to freebies like WFP. Means testing pensioner benefits, using something like an expanded Pension Credit, is by far the most equitable option.
    do you have evidence that 70% own their homes outright, sounds bollox to me. I can see you at forefront of pensioner culling as well, some crazy thing against pensioners whilst being loaded, pretty shabby to say the least. Hopefully you have feck all when you are a pensioner.
    England and Wales, admittedly. I'll fish the stats for Scotland out for you.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/householdcharacteristicsbytenureenglandandwales/census2021
    Crowds now gathering on PB to watch that rare phenomenon the fabled "@malcolmg apology".
    Fff…ffe..that would be an ecumenical matter.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited October 16
    It looks as if Jenrick referenced her without her permission so not surprised
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473

    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Barnesian said:

    Telegraph

    The triple lock will raise 100 million next year as some pensioners are drawn into tax

    Utterly daft comment - it will cost many billion

    Indeed, and because the DWP refuses or is unable to deduct ICT in the way every employer and every pension company in the land has too, those spensioners without private pensions will have to complete self-assessments. Often for a few £10s of tax due.

    Utter madness.
    Increase the personal allowance a bit.
    I wouldn't be surprised for Reeves to increase the allowance to sugar the pill of higher taxes and borrowing
    I suspect it will be the return of the age related personal allowance. A little extra for over 66s only to offset the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance.
    I think if pensioners have high enough incomes that bring them into tax, they should pay it like the rest of us.

    A better offset for WFP would be to expand eligibility for PC a bit.
    So £13,000 pa income for a pensioner is 'like the rest of us' ?
    No, actually.

    Pensioners typically have much lower housing costs (70% own their homes outright, and only 7% privately rent) and fewer dependents, so their equivalised household income after housing costs are, on average, much higher than the rest of the population even with the same income.

    If we were to adjust the personal allowance to take account of these factors, it would be significantly lower, on average, for pensioners.

    Of course, a significant proportion of pensioners are in poverty, which makes the vast wealth and high incomes of other pensioners all the more intolerable when it comes to freebies like WFP. Means testing pensioner benefits, using something like an expanded Pension Credit, is by far the most equitable option.
    do you have evidence that 70% own their homes outright, sounds bollox to me. I can see you at forefront of pensioner culling as well, some crazy thing against pensioners whilst being loaded, pretty shabby to say the least. Hopefully you have feck all when you are a pensioner.
    England and Wales, admittedly. I'll fish the stats for Scotland out for you.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/householdcharacteristicsbytenureenglandandwales/census2021
    Crowds now gathering on PB to watch that rare phenomenon the fabled "@malcolmg apology".
    Do we need to get our tin helmets on?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456

    TimS said:

    maxh said:

    I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.

    I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.
    I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?

    What beats it?
    Pratt's Bottom.
    My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.
    Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".

    For full staff list:
    https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html
    Car Service by Pikop Andropov
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    maxh said:

    I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.

    I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.
    I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?

    What beats it?
    Pratt's Bottom.
    My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.
    Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".

    For full staff list:
    https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html
    Nominative determinism is always great to see. My favourite of the famous ones is Mark de Man, the Belgian footballer.
    I used to work with a surgeon Mr Pain and was at medical School with Sandra Death, though I think she practised under another surname.
    If she was American, it was probably Sandra Passing.
    One of the most annoying recent trends. Everyone is talking about passing. Not even passing away. Grr
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Barnesian said:

    Telegraph

    The triple lock will raise 100 million next year as some pensioners are drawn into tax

    Utterly daft comment - it will cost many billion

    Indeed, and because the DWP refuses or is unable to deduct ICT in the way every employer and every pension company in the land has too, those spensioners without private pensions will have to complete self-assessments. Often for a few £10s of tax due.

    Utter madness.
    Increase the personal allowance a bit.
    I wouldn't be surprised for Reeves to increase the allowance to sugar the pill of higher taxes and borrowing
    I suspect it will be the return of the age related personal allowance. A little extra for over 66s only to offset the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance.
    I think if pensioners have high enough incomes that bring them into tax, they should pay it like the rest of us.

    A better offset for WFP would be to expand eligibility for PC a bit.
    So £13,000 pa income for a pensioner is 'like the rest of us' ?
    No, actually.

    Pensioners typically have much lower housing costs (70% own their homes outright, and only 7% privately rent) and fewer dependents, so their equivalised household income after housing costs are, on average, much higher than the rest of the population even with the same income.

    If we were to adjust the personal allowance to take account of these factors, it would be significantly lower, on average, for pensioners.

    Of course, a significant proportion of pensioners are in poverty, which makes the vast wealth and high incomes of other pensioners all the more intolerable when it comes to freebies like WFP. Means testing pensioner benefits, using something like an expanded Pension Credit, is by far the most equitable option.
    do you have evidence that 70% own their homes outright, sounds bollox to me. I can see you at forefront of pensioner culling as well, some crazy thing against pensioners whilst being loaded, pretty shabby to say the least. Hopefully you have feck all when you are a pensioner.
    England and Wales, admittedly. I'll fish the stats for Scotland out for you.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/householdcharacteristicsbytenureenglandandwales/census2021
    68% in Scotland:

    At the bottom of this: https://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/search-the-census#/topics/list?topic=Housing&categoryId=3
    So Malc was right after all! By -2% but then a miss is as good as a mile . . . maybe?

    (Will let UKers do translation into kilometers!)
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .

    In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .

    In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .

    It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    TimS said:

    maxh said:

    I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.

    I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.
    I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?

    What beats it?
    Pratt's Bottom.
    My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.
    That's where Charles Dickens used to hang out I think.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,851
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    maxh said:

    I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.

    I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.
    I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?

    What beats it?
    Pratt's Bottom.
    My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.
    Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".

    For full staff list:
    https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html
    Nominative determinism is always great to see. My favourite of the famous ones is Mark de Man, the Belgian footballer.
    I used to work with a surgeon Mr Pain and was at medical School with Sandra De'Ath, though I think she practised under another surname.
    There used to be a primary school headteacher in maidenhead who rejoiced under the name of Jack Tw@t.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    That tweet says she isn't backing either candidate.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    nico679 said:

    Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .

    In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .

    In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .

    It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !

    Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.

    Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,572
    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    Must be quite a feat.

    Surprised this doesn't happen more often on dual carriageway A-roads though. The A303 has some rather dodgy minor junctions. Here's just one example:

    www.google.co.uk/maps/
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    edited October 16

    "Today, the Guardian, alongside @hopenothate , today publish an in depth undercover investigation into the efforts of a network of far right race and IQ obsessives, who have been trying to influence discourse about race science."

    https://x.com/AdamRutherford/status/1846537873761116295

    It's a good job we don't have a race and IQ obsessive on here...

    Rutherford and Hope Not Hate are aggressive activists. I'd take anything they say with a pinch of salt.
    Well, racists are often aggressive activists. I’d take anything they say with a pinch of salt. I have more faith in Hope Not Hate than in the AfD.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423
    edited October 16

    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    Must be quite a feat.

    Surprised this doesn't happen more often on dual carriageway A-roads though. The A303 has some rather dodgy minor junctions. Here's just one example:

    www.google.co.uk/maps/
    It's an issue on the A9 where the two carriageways split south of Drumochter. Doesn't help the the road switches between dual and single a few times in that section.
  • viewcode said:

    TimT said:

    A very interesting poll out today in the US.

    The 7 pollsters with the best track record since 2008 have all been putting a Dem lead at 2-3%. We now have a pollster breaking that trend. Marist put the Dems up by 5%. If that gets backed up by other pollsters then that would be significant.

    The previous day's polls saw over 60% of reported polls coming from Rep Pty-linked concerns. I'm doing a litle work on the consequences of that. They tend to give the Reps 1-2% compared to other pollsters. They also have the Trump'vote within 0.5% in each of the seven battleground states. That would be very surprising.

    They are clearly gaming the system. Why is a very important question. The fear is that they intend to argue that Trump ‘winning’ the polling averages ‘proves’ the results (when Harris wins) are fraudulent.
    How do you identify which are the good polls and the bad polls? Which of the pollsters in this are bad?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,572
    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    Confusion? Miss a turn off and try to get back to it? Come off a junction round a bout and turn down the wrong road (the motorway exit, rather than the way on).
    What's weird is that the police were already on their way to intercept the driver, and there was a post on social media saying that the signs on the motorway were warning people that there was a car coming the other way.
    These days, it should be possible to automatically detect anything going the wrong way on a motorway and direct al legit traffic to pull over onto the hard shoulder until the culprit is stopped.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    Foxy said:

    That tweet says she isn't backing either candidate.
    "Penny isn’t endorsing anyone in this contest" say Bad'enoch.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    edited October 16
    That's a bit of a slap in the face to Bobby J actually, as he wrote a whole Conhome piece centered around how great Penny is!

    https://conservativehome.com/2024/10/14/robert-jenrick-im-offering-a-unified-party-a-plan-policies-people-and-penny/

    Though why he chose that headline when he hadn't even secured her endorsement is a bit weird?

    The headline and image choice is a bit peculiar all in all, but I'm wondering if that was subediting by some Conhome intern type - the whole operation does seem very shonky there.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    That's a bit of a slap in the face to Bobby J actually, as he wrote a whole Conhome piece centered around how great Penny is!

    https://conservativehome.com/2024/10/14/robert-jenrick-im-offering-a-unified-party-a-plan-policies-people-and-penny/
    Though why he chose that headline when he hadn't even secured her endorsement is a bit weird?

    The headline and image choice is a bit peculiar all in all, but I'm wondering if that was subediting by some Conhome intern type - the whole operation does seem very shonky there.

    Edit - Oh I see she hasn't actually backed Kemi.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    Foxy said:

    That tweet says she isn't backing either candidate.
    True, but there's not backing and NOT BACKING.

    And at least Badenoch isn't offering Penny to the party. (No, not like that, ooh behave, the very thought of it...)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/15/mordaunt-distances-herself-jenrick-campaign-photo-posted/
  • Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    Confusion? Miss a turn off and try to get back to it? Come off a junction round a bout and turn down the wrong road (the motorway exit, rather than the way on).
    What's weird is that the police were already on their way to intercept the driver, and there was a post on social media saying that the signs on the motorway were warning people that there was a car coming the other way.
    These days, it should be possible to automatically detect anything going the wrong way on a motorway and direct al legit traffic to pull over onto the hard shoulder until the culprit is stopped.
    No hard shoulders in my neck of the woods.

    https://news.sky.com/story/m1-smart-motorway-crash-that-killed-two-would-not-have-happened-with-hard-shoulder-inquest-hears-12850805
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534

    It looks as if Jenrick referenced her without her permission so not surprised
    Except that "Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi" is FAKE NEWS.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200

    nico679 said:

    Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .

    In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .

    In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .

    It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !

    Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.

    Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.
    50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .
  • Can you stop posting fake news.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    Foxy said:

    That tweet says she isn't backing either candidate.
    True, but there's not backing and NOT BACKING.

    And at least Badenoch isn't offering Penny to the party. (No, not like that, ooh behave, the very thought of it...)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/15/mordaunt-distances-herself-jenrick-campaign-photo-posted/
    Yes, it was very peculiar.

    And obviously Kemi's team sniffed around hoping to seriously embarrass Jenrick by clinching the PM endorsement, but she wasn't having that either. A women not to be taken for granted!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .

    In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .

    In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .

    It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !

    Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.

    Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.
    50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .
    It appears, sadly, that people are attracted to dehumanising lies about immigrants and minorities being to blame for everything, as we see here too.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534

    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    Must be quite a feat.

    Surprised this doesn't happen more often on dual carriageway A-roads though. The A303 has some rather dodgy minor junctions. Here's just one example:

    www.google.co.uk/maps/
    Driving wrong way on motorway is NOT difficult to do IF driver is distracted, intoxicated and/or gaga.

    OR suicidal.

    Never done it myself - and no longer driving - but did it years ago, on a backroad in Northern Ireland, because I forgot to remind myself before I left the petrol station, that UKers (and Irish) drive on the left NOT the right.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,572

    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    Confusion? Miss a turn off and try to get back to it? Come off a junction round a bout and turn down the wrong road (the motorway exit, rather than the way on).
    What's weird is that the police were already on their way to intercept the driver, and there was a post on social media saying that the signs on the motorway were warning people that there was a car coming the other way.
    These days, it should be possible to automatically detect anything going the wrong way on a motorway and direct al legit traffic to pull over onto the hard shoulder until the culprit is stopped.
    No hard shoulders in my neck of the woods.

    https://news.sky.com/story/m1-smart-motorway-crash-that-killed-two-would-not-have-happened-with-hard-shoulder-inquest-hears-12850805
    Good point.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,053

    kyf_100 said:

    Scrap the triple lock. Starmer and Reeves are prats.

    The UK throughout my life has been defined by making the lives of people older than me better.

    In my 20s, it was cheap credit and cheap housing that let people in their 40s become BTL millionaires.

    By the time I hit that age... houses were too expensive and Osborne's reforms mean you get taxed on income, not profit. Also, you're screwed if you're a renter as a result of that, because lack of housebuilding means Mr Osborne's tax reforms get passed on to you.

    Now pensioners wealth has to be protected at all costs. Despite the fact that many are sitting on hundreds of thousands of tax free gains in their property, and even those that aren't are guaranteed a pay rise when millions of us are not.

    My father owns a string of houses with a net value of at least three million (lucky him) and uses his winter fuel allowance to keep the damp out of the one spare house he doesn't rent out but pops back to when he's occasionally back in the UK in the summer. The WFA should be means tested and if we're really saying it can't be done then it's scary that the state can't distinguish a millionaire pensioner from one on 10k a year.
    While at lunch last week I overheard a woman moaning about the loss of her WFA: "It covered the cost of heating the pool while we're in our villa in Spain through the winter."

    She did at least spend it on fuel, in the winter, I guess.
    I can't imagine how people aren't ashamed of themselves to say such a thing out loud.
  • It looks as if Jenrick referenced her without her permission so not surprised
    Except that "Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi" is FAKE NEWS.
    Apparently
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    kinabalu said:

    The US is surely making a mistake in moving to postal voting on demand. Will only increase peoples' suspicions about the validity of the ballot which Trump can be guaranteed to play on.

    Try telling that to voters in Oregon and Washington. Where EVERY signature on returned ballot envelop, is checked against the voter's signature on file with election authorities (counties and Secretary of State.

    Easy to allege fraud, when your Trump or a MAGA-maniac cultist, because you then believe that ANY ballot cast against you is ipso facto illegitmate.
    Would it be fair to say that MAGA is the world's biggest cult? I can't think of anything on quite the same scale. Certainly not in the West.
    Islam, Christianity, Budhism, etc all wave at this point…
    They're not really cults though. Although they do have sub sections (eg evangelicals) that maybe fit the description.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,851
    AnneJGP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scrap the triple lock. Starmer and Reeves are prats.

    The UK throughout my life has been defined by making the lives of people older than me better.

    In my 20s, it was cheap credit and cheap housing that let people in their 40s become BTL millionaires.

    By the time I hit that age... houses were too expensive and Osborne's reforms mean you get taxed on income, not profit. Also, you're screwed if you're a renter as a result of that, because lack of housebuilding means Mr Osborne's tax reforms get passed on to you.

    Now pensioners wealth has to be protected at all costs. Despite the fact that many are sitting on hundreds of thousands of tax free gains in their property, and even those that aren't are guaranteed a pay rise when millions of us are not.

    My father owns a string of houses with a net value of at least three million (lucky him) and uses his winter fuel allowance to keep the damp out of the one spare house he doesn't rent out but pops back to when he's occasionally back in the UK in the summer. The WFA should be means tested and if we're really saying it can't be done then it's scary that the state can't distinguish a millionaire pensioner from one on 10k a year.
    While at lunch last week I overheard a woman moaning about the loss of her WFA: "It covered the cost of heating the pool while we're in our villa in Spain through the winter."

    She did at least spend it on fuel, in the winter, I guess.
    I can't imagine how people aren't ashamed of themselves to say such a thing out loud.
    You'd be surprised
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    TimT said:

    TimS said:

    maxh said:

    I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.

    I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.
    I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?

    What beats it?
    Pratt's Bottom.
    My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.
    Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".

    For full staff list:
    https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html

    Car Service by Pikop Andropov
    Easy Money by Robin Banks?
    Long Walk Home by Miss D Buss?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    OK. I have now come to the conclusion that Trump wants to lose.

    Fox Host: The family of Amber Thurman, who died after not receiving urgent care needed for an infection under Georgia’s abortion ban, is speaking ahead of this town hall.

    Trump: We’ll get better ratings, I promise.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    Andy_JS said:

    TimS said:

    maxh said:

    I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.

    I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.
    I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?

    What beats it?
    Pratt's Bottom.
    My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.
    That's where Charles Dickens used to hang out I think.
    Do you mean geographically OR anatomically?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,851

    malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    Must be quite a feat.

    Surprised this doesn't happen more often on dual carriageway A-roads though. The A303 has some rather dodgy minor junctions. Here's just one example:

    www.google.co.uk/maps/
    Driving wrong way on motorway is NOT difficult to do IF driver is distracted, intoxicated and/or gaga.

    OR suicidal.

    Never done it myself - and no longer driving - but did it years ago, on a backroad in Northern Ireland, because I forgot to remind myself before I left the petrol station, that UKers (and Irish) drive on the left NOT the right.
    Oxford South services are so complicated you could end up on the wrong carriageway.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,305

    Can you stop posting fake news.
    When Penny does a nice, friendly photoshoot with Jenrick then you can call it fake news.
  • malcolmg said:

    Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash

    The driver apparently died along with 4 others

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386

    How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong way
    Must be quite a feat.

    Surprised this doesn't happen more often on dual carriageway A-roads though. The A303 has some rather dodgy minor junctions. Here's just one example:

    www.google.co.uk/maps/
    Driving wrong way on motorway is NOT difficult to do IF driver is distracted, intoxicated and/or gaga.

    OR suicidal.

    Never done it myself - and no longer driving - but did it years ago, on a backroad in Northern Ireland, because I forgot to remind myself before I left the petrol station, that UKers (and Irish) drive on the left NOT the right.
    Oxford South services are so complicated you could end up on the wrong carriageway.
    I agree with you so much so I avoid them
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .

    In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .

    In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .

    It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !

    Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.

    Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.
    50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .
    Is it because Trump stands for one man, one vote, one time?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    maxh said:

    I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.

    I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.
    I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?

    What beats it?
    Pratt's Bottom.
    My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.
    Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".

    For full staff list:
    https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html
    Nominative determinism is always great to see. My favourite of the famous ones is Mark de Man, the Belgian footballer.
    I used to work with a surgeon Mr Pain and was at medical School with Sandra De'Ath, though I think she practised under another surname.

    There used to be a primary school headteacher in maidenhead who rejoiced under the name of Jack Tw@t.
    At this point I need to post this incomparable letter

    https://lettersofnote.com/2009/10/28/we-all-feel-like-that-now-and-then/

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    The US is surely making a mistake in moving to postal voting on demand. Will only increase peoples' suspicions about the validity of the ballot which Trump can be guaranteed to play on.

    Try telling that to voters in Oregon and Washington. Where EVERY signature on returned ballot envelop, is checked against the voter's signature on file with election authorities (counties and Secretary of State.

    Easy to allege fraud, when your Trump or a MAGA-maniac cultist, because you then believe that ANY ballot cast against you is ipso facto illegitmate.
    Would it be fair to say that MAGA is the world's biggest cult? I can't think of anything on quite the same scale. Certainly not in the West.
    Islam, Christianity, Budhism, etc all wave at this point…
    They're not really cults though. Although they do have sub sections (eg evangelicals) that maybe fit the description.
    How are the6 not cults? They are EXACTLY cults. Almost by definition.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .

    In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .

    In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .

    It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !

    Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.

    Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.
    50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .
    It appears, sadly, that people are attracted to dehumanising lies about immigrants and minorities being to blame for everything, as we see here too.
    It’s tragic. Once you start de-humanizing people bad things happen . The US media are complicit in sanewashing Trump, instead of calling him out they’re dancing on the head of a pin. His campaign is a sea of hate.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .

    In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .

    In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .

    It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !

    Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.

    Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.
    50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .
    It appears, sadly, that people are attracted to dehumanising lies about immigrants and minorities being to blame for everything, as we see here too.
    It’s tragic. Once you start de-humanizing people bad things happen . The US media are complicit in sanewashing Trump, instead of calling him out they’re dancing on the head of a pin. His campaign is a sea of hate.
    The world's great hope has to be Elon Musk. Quite how and why he has his odd political views I've no idea. His views as to the future are really rather inspiring.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    TimT said:

    OK. I have now come to the conclusion that Trump wants to lose.

    Fox Host: The family of Amber Thurman, who died after not receiving urgent care needed for an infection under Georgia’s abortion ban, is speaking ahead of this town hall.

    Trump: We’ll get better ratings, I promise.

    It doesn’t matter what Trump does . He has a solid 45% of voters who will vote for him regardless of what he does. He could blow Bambi’s head off and start culling pensioners and the moronic cult members would still be clapping like seals .
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,851

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    maxh said:

    I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.

    I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.
    I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?

    What beats it?
    Pratt's Bottom.
    My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.
    Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".

    For full staff list:
    https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html
    Nominative determinism is always great to see. My favourite of the famous ones is Mark de Man, the Belgian footballer.
    I used to work with a surgeon Mr Pain and was at medical School with Sandra De'Ath, though I think she practised under another surname.

    There used to be a primary school headteacher in maidenhead who rejoiced under the name of Jack Tw@t.
    At this point I need to post this incomparable letter

    https://lettersofnote.com/2009/10/28/we-all-feel-like-that-now-and-then/

    Surely this is fake....
    I didn't think lady gardens existed in the war...
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .

    In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .

    In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .

    It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !

    Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.

    Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.
    50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .
    It appears, sadly, that people are attracted to dehumanising lies about immigrants and minorities being to blame for everything, as we see here too.
    It’s tragic. Once you start de-humanizing people bad things happen . The US media are complicit in sanewashing Trump, instead of calling him out they’re dancing on the head of a pin. His campaign is a sea of hate.
    The world's great hope has to be Elon Musk. Quite how and why he has his odd political views I've no idea. His views as to the future are really rather inspiring.
    Anyone who enables Trump deserves to fail miserably. We shouldn’t just give free passes to people because they might do other things that are seen as inspiring.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,323
    edited October 16
    Harris' problem is turnout of groups traditionally favourable to the Democrats. The upper end of her potential vote is more frothy than Trumps. It bothers to vote and she wins, no matter whether Trump gets his potential vote out or not.

    The financial markets seem to be assuming Trump has got this, and at this point I think they are right.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112
    Yokes said:

    Harris' problem is turnout of groups traditionally favourable to the Democrats. The upper end of her potentia vote is more frothy that Trumps. It bothers to vote and she wins, no matter whether Trump gets his potential vote out or not.

    The financial markets seem to be assuming Trump has got this, and at this point I think they are right.

    The amount of Hopium around Harris has been startling for weeks.

    Smart money thinks Trump edges it.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,955
    George Will believes that "World War III is already under way. Not that Harris or Trump has noticed."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/16/world-war-presidential-election-harris-trump/

    I am inclined to agree with him, on both claims.

    ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Will )
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    Note how our PBs own Sophist-in-Chief publishes a fib . . . that is directly contracted by his own source . . . then trys to weasle out of it by . . . wait for it . . . more sophistry.

    Directed at our Moderator-in-Chief no less. Deserving of Ignobel award for brazen bullshitting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,508
    .

    The US is surely making a mistake in moving to postal voting on demand. Will only increase peoples' suspicions about the validity of the ballot which Trump can be guaranteed to play on.

    Try telling that to voters in Oregon and Washington. Where EVERY signature on returned ballot envelop, is checked against the voter's signature on file with election authorities (counties and Secretary of State.

    Easy to allege fraud, when your Trump or a MAGA-maniac cultist, because you then believe that ANY ballot cast against you is ipso facto illegitmate.
    Any of the other 48 states? I regard the bigger issue as being the loss of the secret ballot. We used to demand good reason for a postal vote being granted.
    I have NOT lost MY secret ballot.

    There's lose talk about how family members coerce other family members, but that's frankly speculative BS.

    Don't have list of all vote-by-mail states, though think Alaska is one of them.

    Note that in WA State, one of the reasons why we went to all VBM, was because the majority of voters were already requesting absentee ballots for EVERY election.

    Further note that, before Trump started frothing, it was REPUBLICANS who were most likely to request absentees.
    It just demonstrates that is you repeat a lie often enough, as Trump does, even the neutral will be influenced by it.

    The GOP efforts to question ballot safety, with barely a shed of evidence, have nearly half the country fully convinced, and a fair proportion of the rest taking them seriously.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    nico679 said:

    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .

    In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .

    In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .

    It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !

    Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.

    Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.
    50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .
    It appears, sadly, that people are attracted to dehumanising lies about immigrants and minorities being to blame for everything, as we see here too.
    It’s tragic. Once you start de-humanizing people bad things happen . The US media are complicit in sanewashing Trump, instead of calling him out they’re dancing on the head of a pin. His campaign is a sea of hate.
    The world's great hope has to be Elon Musk. Quite how and why he has his odd political views I've no idea. His views as to the future are really rather inspiring.
    Anyone who enables Trump deserves to fail miserably. We shouldn’t just give free passes to people because they might do other things that are seen as inspiring.
    Musk though needs no free pass.

    I have a very dim view of Trump and his supporters.

    I cannot reconcile these two things, but my hats off admiration of Musk's bravado at just going for the impossible is unbounded
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134

    Note how our PBs own Sophist-in-Chief publishes a fib . . . that is directly contracted by his own source . . . then trys to weasle out of it by . . . wait for it . . . more sophistry.

    Directed at our Moderator-in-Chief no less. Deserving of Ignobel award for brazen bullshitting.

    When was the last time people in Washington state voted in person at voting places?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .

    In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .

    In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .

    It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !

    Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.

    Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.
    50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .
    It appears, sadly, that people are attracted to dehumanising lies about immigrants and minorities being to blame for everything, as we see here too.
    It’s tragic. Once you start de-humanizing people bad things happen . The US media are complicit in sanewashing Trump, instead of calling him out they’re dancing on the head of a pin. His campaign is a sea of hate.
    The world's great hope has to be Elon Musk. Quite how and why he has his odd political views I've no idea. His views as to the future are really rather inspiring.
    Anyone who enables Trump deserves to fail miserably. We shouldn’t just give free passes to people because they might do other things that are seen as inspiring.
    Musk though needs no free pass.

    I have a very dim view of Trump and his supporters.

    I cannot reconcile these two things, but my hats off admiration of Musk's bravado at just going for the impossible is unbounded
    He does run an impressive engineering company, but remains a moral imbecile.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385
    They are just trolling us now.

    BBC now using an advert just before the main news extolling their amazing news gathering and fact checking - "the fight for truth".

    Literally the same day they canned a ton of news gathering and ditched hard news shows like Hard Talk having already butchered Newsnight and so on.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,416
    edited October 16
    NEW DETAILS ABOUT THE PAGERS
    https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1846591352949125270

    It is very interesting and impressive, but also should worry us all. This approach was undetectable by airport scanners etc and only sign something was a bit off was the battery didn't last quite as long as advertised.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,416
    edited October 16

    They are just trolling us now.

    BBC now using an advert just before the main news extolling their amazing news gathering and fact checking - "the fight for truth".

    Literally the same day they canned a ton of news gathering and ditched hard news shows like Hard Talk having already butchered Newsnight and so on.

    While BBC Verify doesn't know their arse from their elbow most of the time and even when they do, its a poor man's Bellingcat type analysis.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,465
    edited October 16

    George Will believes that "World War III is already under way. Not that Harris or Trump has noticed."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/16/world-war-presidential-election-harris-trump/

    I am inclined to agree with him, on both claims.

    ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Will )

    When I was at Uni around 1980 some right-wing Tories I encountered there were saying that WWIII was already in progress then e.g. in Angola , Zimbabwe etc. and "we" were losing it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473

    NEW DETAILS ABOUT THE PAGERS
    https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1846591352949125270

    It is very interesting and impressive, but also should worry us all. This approach was undetectable by airport scanners etc and only sign something was a bit of was the battery didn't last quite as long as advertised.

    Undetectable by airline scanners is worrying indeed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,416
    edited October 16
    Foxy said:

    NEW DETAILS ABOUT THE PAGERS
    https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1846591352949125270

    It is very interesting and impressive, but also should worry us all. This approach was undetectable by airport scanners etc and only sign something was a bit of was the battery didn't last quite as long as advertised.

    Undetectable by airline scanners is worrying indeed.
    It wasn't that long ago that there was the terrorist plot that loaded much more crude explosives into printers and insert them into the world logistics system, and it appears Russia might have copied this approach now. It shows there is are significant weaknesses in airfreight, and with shear volume of them, if you can use similar approaches that couldn't be easily scanned, seems unstoppable.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .

    In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .

    In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .

    It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !

    Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.

    Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.
    50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .
    It appears, sadly, that people are attracted to dehumanising lies about immigrants and minorities being to blame for everything, as we see here too.
    It’s tragic. Once you start de-humanizing people bad things happen . The US media are complicit in sanewashing Trump, instead of calling him out they’re dancing on the head of a pin. His campaign is a sea of hate.
    The world's great hope has to be Elon Musk. Quite how and why he has his odd political views I've no idea. His views as to the future are really rather inspiring.
    Anyone who enables Trump deserves to fail miserably. We shouldn’t just give free passes to people because they might do other things that are seen as inspiring.
    Musk though needs no free pass.

    I have a very dim view of Trump and his supporters.

    I cannot reconcile these two things, but my hats off admiration of Musk's bravado at just going for the impossible is unbounded
    He does run an impressive engineering company, but remains a moral imbecile.
    Well, yes. I think that's right. The weird question is quite what he isn't saying when he's supporting Trump. Nobody in their right mind would support the buffoon after all. So what is it that he thinks he sees?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,305
    Foxy said:

    George Will believes that "World War III is already under way. Not that Harris or Trump has noticed."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/16/world-war-presidential-election-harris-trump/

    I am inclined to agree with him, on both claims.

    ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Will )

    To be fair in previous World Wars the USA was rather slow to notice too.
    Imagine the previous World Wars with Biden as President: "We'll give you weapons but you can't use them to hit Germany."
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,955
    edited October 16
    Dr. Foxy - Will makes this point in the rest of the column: The two presidential candidates in 1940, FDR and Wendell Wilkie, both went about as far as they could in getting the US prepared for war.

    For instance, our first peace time draft was passed in September 1940 -- by one vote in the House of Representatives. (Most likely the Democratic leaders had a few to spare, if they needed them, but it was close.)

    Those efforts cost FDR votes of German and Irish-Americans, but won him votes of Poles and Jews.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385
    Latest on Boomers grabbing all they can.

    Pensions rise by £39 a month.


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    29m
    Thursday’s i: “Benefits to rise £1.50 a week - as Reeves faces Labour backlash” #TomorrowsPapersToday
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Attended an event with Lord Frost for Jenrick this evening, he spoke well and had a good reception.

    General feeling I got was it will be close between Kemi and Robert and at least 1 attendee had switched from Badenoch to Jenrick
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    Andy_JS said:

    TimS said:

    maxh said:

    I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.

    I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.
    I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?

    What beats it?
    Pratt's Bottom.
    My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.
    That's where Charles Dickens used to hang out I think.
    Ian Fleming did. He wrote James Bond novels while sitting at the Duck Inn (which is reopening soon after a hiatus of nearly a year). Bucolic spot.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473

    Dr. Foxy - Will makes this point in the rest of the column: The two presidential candidates in 1940, FDR and Wendell Wilkie, both went about as far as they could in getting the US prepared for war.

    For instance, our first peace time draft was passed in September 1940 -- by one vote in the House of Representatives. (Most likely the Democratic leaders had a few to spare, if they needed them, but it was close.)

    Those efforts cost FDR votes of German and Irish-Americans, but won him votes of Poles and Jews.

    I was being a bit tongue in cheek!

    Foxy said:

    George Will believes that "World War III is already under way. Not that Harris or Trump has noticed."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/16/world-war-presidential-election-harris-trump/

    I am inclined to agree with him, on both claims.

    ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Will )

    To be fair in previous World Wars the USA was rather slow to notice too.
    Imagine the previous World Wars with Biden as President: "We'll give you weapons but you can't use them to hit Germany."
    Better than not having them at all, with Trump as President.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Yokes said:

    Harris' problem is turnout of groups traditionally favourable to the Democrats. The upper end of her potential vote is more frothy than Trumps. It bothers to vote and she wins, no matter whether Trump gets his potential vote out or not.

    The financial markets seem to be assuming Trump has got this, and at this point I think they are right.

    He might though Harris is polling better with white women than any recent Democrat candidate did, including Obama.
    https://www.foxnews.com/media/white-women-could-win-election-harris-cnn-data-reporter-says

    Some new swing states data

    Quinnipiac

    Georgia Trump 52% Harris 46%

    North Carolina Harris 50% Trump 47%
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3914

    Redfield

    Wisconsin Harris 48% Trump 47%

    Pennsylvania Harris 48% Trump 48%

    Georgia Harris 47% Trump 47%

    North Carolina Trump 48% Harris 46%

    New Mexico Harris 49% Trump 45%

    Nevada Harris 47% Trump 47%

    Minnesota Harris 51% Trump 43%

    Michigan Harris 47% Trump 47%

    Florida Trump 50% Harris 44%

    Arizona Trump 48% Harris 46%
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-12-14-october-2024/#usvipop
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,572
    HYUFD said:

    Yokes said:

    Harris' problem is turnout of groups traditionally favourable to the Democrats. The upper end of her potential vote is more frothy than Trumps. It bothers to vote and she wins, no matter whether Trump gets his potential vote out or not.

    The financial markets seem to be assuming Trump has got this, and at this point I think they are right.

    He might though Harris is polling better with white women than any recent Democrat candidate did, including Obama.
    https://www.foxnews.com/media/white-women-could-win-election-harris-cnn-data-reporter-says

    Some new swing states data

    Quinnipiac

    Georgia Trump 52% Harris 46%

    North Carolina Harris 50% Trump 47%
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3914

    Redfield

    Wisconsin Harris 48% Trump 47%

    Pennsylvania Harris 48% Trump 48%

    Georgia Harris 47% Trump 47%

    North Carolina Trump 48% Harris 46%

    New Mexico Harris 49% Trump 45%

    Nevada Harris 47% Trump 47%

    Minnesota Harris 51% Trump 43%

    Michigan Harris 47% Trump 47%

    Florida Trump 50% Harris 44%

    Arizona Trump 48% Harris 46%
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-12-14-october-2024/#usvipop
    It's all going to come down to the respective GOTV operations.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385
    HYUFD said:

    Attended an event with Lord Frost for Jenrick this evening, he spoke well and had a good reception.

    General feeling I got was it will be close between Kemi and Robert and at least 1 attendee had switched from Badenoch to Jenrick

    LOL. Best of luck then! Dodgy Bobby will be a frigging disaster for your party.

    Although has the advantage of being definitely thrown out in two years and so chance for a pre-election reset.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385
    Honestly, if the tory press are rubbing themselves raw on how unpopular Starmer is becoming what are they going to do when Jenrick tests the very depths of unpopular polling?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,114
    HYUFD said:

    Attended an event with Lord Frost for Jenrick this evening, he spoke well and had a good reception.

    General feeling I got was it will be close between Kemi and Robert and at least 1 attendee had switched from Badenoch to Jenrick

    Was Lord Frost sober?

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    Honestly, if the tory press are rubbing themselves raw on how unpopular Starmer is becoming what are they going to do when Jenrick tests the very depths of unpopular polling?

    Call for Badenoch or Farage, probably.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    edited October 16

    Honestly, if the tory press are rubbing themselves raw on how unpopular Starmer is becoming what are they going to do when Jenrick tests the very depths of unpopular polling?

    Well the polling puts him doing better than Kemi with the public.

    According to the Telegraph he would get a hung parliament in 4 years time, though with Labour on 302 quite hard to find enough coalition partners for a Tory government.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Mortimer said:

    Yokes said:

    Harris' problem is turnout of groups traditionally favourable to the Democrats. The upper end of her potentia vote is more frothy that Trumps. It bothers to vote and she wins, no matter whether Trump gets his potential vote out or not.

    The financial markets seem to be assuming Trump has got this, and at this point I think they are right.

    The amount of Hopium around Harris has been startling for weeks.

    Smart money thinks Trump edges it.
    Mug money.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,114
    Speculating on the US...aside from the fact that Trump winning will have a massive impact on my emotional well being....

    I'm hoping that US pollsters have overcorrected their methodologies from 2016/20, if not Trump wins all the swing states....

    One thing that is for sure, a Trump victory would energise all the racist, populist notrights globally, and we have some here on pbCOM...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited October 16

    Honestly, if the tory press are rubbing themselves raw on how unpopular Starmer is becoming what are they going to do when Jenrick tests the very depths of unpopular polling?

    He won't, a shock new poll of 6300 voters by Electoral Calculus released tonight has a Tory party led by Jenrick gaining 57 seats compared to 30 the party would gain under Badenoch.

    Jenrick would slash Labour's voteshare by 7% since July and Badenoch would also cut it by 6%

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/starmer-would-lose-majority-jenrick-were-tory-leader-poll/

  • novanova Posts: 690
    Foxy said:

    Honestly, if the tory press are rubbing themselves raw on how unpopular Starmer is becoming what are they going to do when Jenrick tests the very depths of unpopular polling?

    Well the polling puts him doing better than Kemi with the public.

    According to the Telegraph he would get a hung parliament in 4 years time, though with Labour on 302 quite hard to find enough coalition partners for a Tory government.
    Is that the Telegraph psychic department's own polling?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    The US is surely making a mistake in moving to postal voting on demand. Will only increase peoples' suspicions about the validity of the ballot which Trump can be guaranteed to play on.

    Try telling that to voters in Oregon and Washington. Where EVERY signature on returned ballot envelop, is checked against the voter's signature on file with election authorities (counties and Secretary of State.

    Easy to allege fraud, when your Trump or a MAGA-maniac cultist, because you then believe that ANY ballot cast against you is ipso facto illegitmate.
    Would it be fair to say that MAGA is the world's biggest cult? I can't think of anything on quite the same scale. Certainly not in the West.
    Islam, Christianity, Budhism, etc all wave at this point…
    They're not really cults though. Although they do have sub sections (eg evangelicals) that maybe fit the description.
    How are the6 not cults? They are EXACTLY cults. Almost by definition.
    Because only a small fraction of people who describe themselves as those things are zealous about it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,385
    HYUFD said:

    Honestly, if the tory press are rubbing themselves raw on how unpopular Starmer is becoming what are they going to do when Jenrick tests the very depths of unpopular polling?

    He won't, a shock new poll of 6300 voters by Electoral Calculus released tonight has a Tory party led by Jenrick gaining 57 seats compared to 30 the party would gain under Badenoch.

    Jenrick would slash Labour's voteshare by 7% since July and Badenoch would also cut it by 6%

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/starmer-would-lose-majority-jenrick-were-tory-leader-poll/

    Genuine :lol:
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062
    nova said:

    Foxy said:

    Honestly, if the tory press are rubbing themselves raw on how unpopular Starmer is becoming what are they going to do when Jenrick tests the very depths of unpopular polling?

    Well the polling puts him doing better than Kemi with the public.

    According to the Telegraph he would get a hung parliament in 4 years time, though with Labour on 302 quite hard to find enough coalition partners for a Tory government.
    Is that the Telegraph psychic department's own polling?
    The blind to reality department
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