That way madness lies – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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As a matter of interest how do the police intercept a car travelling the wrong way on a motorwayEabhal said:
What's weird is that the police were already on their way to intercept the driver, and there was a post on social media saying that the signs on the motorway were warning people that there was a car coming the other way.turbotubbs said:malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
Confusion? Miss a turn off and try to get back to it? Come off a junction round a bout and turn down the wrong road (the motorway exit, rather than the way on).malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
I am familiar with the area and it is fast and if near Tebay services there is a service road between both sides of the motorway and it could be the driver went down the wrong slip, though this is just guess work
The closing speed of the cars could have been near 140mph or more0 -
While at lunch last week I overheard a woman moaning about the loss of her WFA: "It covered the cost of heating the pool while we're in our villa in Spain through the winter."kyf_100 said:
The UK throughout my life has been defined by making the lives of people older than me better.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Scrap the triple lock. Starmer and Reeves are prats.
In my 20s, it was cheap credit and cheap housing that let people in their 40s become BTL millionaires.
By the time I hit that age... houses were too expensive and Osborne's reforms mean you get taxed on income, not profit. Also, you're screwed if you're a renter as a result of that, because lack of housebuilding means Mr Osborne's tax reforms get passed on to you.
Now pensioners wealth has to be protected at all costs. Despite the fact that many are sitting on hundreds of thousands of tax free gains in their property, and even those that aren't are guaranteed a pay rise when millions of us are not.
My father owns a string of houses with a net value of at least three million (lucky him) and uses his winter fuel allowance to keep the damp out of the one spare house he doesn't rent out but pops back to when he's occasionally back in the UK in the summer. The WFA should be means tested and if we're really saying it can't be done then it's scary that the state can't distinguish a millionaire pensioner from one on 10k a year.
She did at least spend it on fuel, in the winter, I guess.3 -
For the Truss fans there are both Nether Wallop and Middle Wallop in the Test Valley.Benpointer said:
You'll like Titty Hill in West Sussex then.TimS said:
My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Pratt's Bottom.maxh said:
I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?JosiasJessop said:
I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.Luckyguy1983 said:I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.
What beats it?0 -
Reckon the Why some partisan pollsters would want to game the system, is that subset of swing voters who want to vote for the winner. Thus convincing them YOUR candidate is winning, is key part of persuading them to vote for them.TimT said:
They are clearly gaming the system. Why is a very important question. The fear is that they intend to argue that Trump ‘winning’ the polling averages ‘proves’ the results (when Harris wins) are fraudulent.Clutch_Brompton said:A very interesting poll out today in the US.
The 7 pollsters with the best track record since 2008 have all been putting a Dem lead at 2-3%. We now have a pollster breaking that trend. Marist put the Dems up by 5%. If that gets backed up by other pollsters then that would be significant.
The previous day's polls saw over 60% of reported polls coming from Rep Pty-linked concerns. I'm doing a litle work on the consequences of that. They tend to give the Reps 1-2% compared to other pollsters. They also have the Trump'vote within 0.5% in each of the seven battleground states. That would be very surprising.
Recall reading about poll in USA, taken a year or so after 1960 election, which asked people how they'd voted in that POTUS election - JFK won by several more percenage points in memory than in actuality!3 -
Rasmussen in 2022 had an average 5.1% error, 100% in favour of the GOP. InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar are also highly suspect. There are also others. The polls published often have a sample size of 500 or 600.viewcode said:
How do you identify which are the good polls and the bad polls? Which of the pollsters in this are bad?TimT said:
They are clearly gaming the system. Why is a very important question. The fear is that they intend to argue that Trump ‘winning’ the polling averages ‘proves’ the results (when Harris wins) are fraudulent.Clutch_Brompton said:A very interesting poll out today in the US.
The 7 pollsters with the best track record since 2008 have all been putting a Dem lead at 2-3%. We now have a pollster breaking that trend. Marist put the Dems up by 5%. If that gets backed up by other pollsters then that would be significant.
The previous day's polls saw over 60% of reported polls coming from Rep Pty-linked concerns. I'm doing a litle work on the consequences of that. They tend to give the Reps 1-2% compared to other pollsters. They also have the Trump'vote within 0.5% in each of the seven battleground states. That would be very surprising.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election1 -
Went down the wrong slip and carried on driving in the wrong direction?Big_G_NorthWales said:
As a matter of interest how do the police intercept a car travelling the wrong way on a motorwayEabhal said:
What's weird is that the police were already on their way to intercept the driver, and there was a post on social media saying that the signs on the motorway were warning people that there was a car coming the other way.turbotubbs said:malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
Confusion? Miss a turn off and try to get back to it? Come off a junction round a bout and turn down the wrong road (the motorway exit, rather than the way on).malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
I am familiar with the area and it is fast and if near Tebay services there is a service road between both sides of the motorway and it could be the driver went down the wrong slip, though this is just guess work
The closing speed of the cars could have been near 140mph or more
For an obstruction the police would get in front of the traffic and do a rolling roadblock. No idea what they'd do after that with someone coming the other way.0 -
I mean in a way it would be fair play if governments had been honest about it and said “for the poor it’s necessary to stop people dying of hypothermia, but for more comfortably off pensioners it’s a little bonus, a bit of joy to sweeten the sunset years of their lives. And who would begrudge a bit of joy and a splash of luxury for dear Granny?”Benpointer said:
While at lunch last week I overheard a woman moaning about the loss of her WFA: "It covered the cost of heating the pool while we're in our villa in Spain through the winter."kyf_100 said:
The UK throughout my life has been defined by making the lives of people older than me better.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Scrap the triple lock. Starmer and Reeves are prats.
In my 20s, it was cheap credit and cheap housing that let people in their 40s become BTL millionaires.
By the time I hit that age... houses were too expensive and Osborne's reforms mean you get taxed on income, not profit. Also, you're screwed if you're a renter as a result of that, because lack of housebuilding means Mr Osborne's tax reforms get passed on to you.
Now pensioners wealth has to be protected at all costs. Despite the fact that many are sitting on hundreds of thousands of tax free gains in their property, and even those that aren't are guaranteed a pay rise when millions of us are not.
My father owns a string of houses with a net value of at least three million (lucky him) and uses his winter fuel allowance to keep the damp out of the one spare house he doesn't rent out but pops back to when he's occasionally back in the UK in the summer. The WFA should be means tested and if we're really saying it can't be done then it's scary that the state can't distinguish a millionaire pensioner from one on 10k a year.
She did at least spend it on fuel, in the winter, I guess.1 -
From Trump’s town hall with women:
Georgia voter: Women are entitled to do what we need to do with our bodies. It’s necessary to save our own lives. Why is the government involved in women's basic rights?
Trump: Yeah, I think it's great. For 52 years, they wanted to end Roe v. Wade. We were able to do it
1 -
I used to work with a surgeon Mr Pain and was at medical School with Sandra De'Ath, though I think she practised under another surname.TimS said:
Nominative determinism is always great to see. My favourite of the famous ones is Mark de Man, the Belgian footballer.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".TimS said:
My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Pratt's Bottom.maxh said:
I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?JosiasJessop said:
I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.Luckyguy1983 said:I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.
What beats it?
For full staff list:
https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html2 -
0
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Crowds now gathering on PB to watch that rare phenomenon the fabled "@malcolmg apology".Eabhal said:
England and Wales, admittedly. I'll fish the stats for Scotland out for you.malcolmg said:
do you have evidence that 70% own their homes outright, sounds bollox to me. I can see you at forefront of pensioner culling as well, some crazy thing against pensioners whilst being loaded, pretty shabby to say the least. Hopefully you have feck all when you are a pensioner.Eabhal said:
No, actually.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So £13,000 pa income for a pensioner is 'like the rest of us' ?Eabhal said:
I think if pensioners have high enough incomes that bring them into tax, they should pay it like the rest of us.londonpubman said:
I suspect it will be the return of the age related personal allowance. A little extra for over 66s only to offset the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I wouldn't be surprised for Reeves to increase the allowance to sugar the pill of higher taxes and borrowingBarnesian said:
Increase the personal allowance a bit.Benpointer said:
Indeed, and because the DWP refuses or is unable to deduct ICT in the way every employer and every pension company in the land has too, those spensioners without private pensions will have to complete self-assessments. Often for a few £10s of tax due.Big_G_NorthWales said:Telegraph
The triple lock will raise 100 million next year as some pensioners are drawn into tax
Utterly daft comment - it will cost many billion
Utter madness.
A better offset for WFP would be to expand eligibility for PC a bit.
Pensioners typically have much lower housing costs (70% own their homes outright, and only 7% privately rent) and fewer dependents, so their equivalised household income after housing costs are, on average, much higher than the rest of the population even with the same income.
If we were to adjust the personal allowance to take account of these factors, it would be significantly lower, on average, for pensioners.
Of course, a significant proportion of pensioners are in poverty, which makes the vast wealth and high incomes of other pensioners all the more intolerable when it comes to freebies like WFP. Means testing pensioner benefits, using something like an expanded Pension Credit, is by far the most equitable option.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/householdcharacteristicsbytenureenglandandwales/census20211 -
Good advice for ANYTHING you read on Twatter AND rest of web. Also anywhere else!FrankBooth said:
Rutherford and Hope Not Hate are aggressive activists. I'd take anything they say with a pinch of salt.JosiasJessop said:"Today, the Guardian, alongside @hopenothate , today publish an in depth undercover investigation into the efforts of a network of far right race and IQ obsessives, who have been trying to influence discourse about race science."
https://x.com/AdamRutherford/status/1846537873761116295
It's a good job we don't have a race and IQ obsessive on here...
In this case, the proposition that racists are trying to egg the rancid pudding of inherent non-White inferiority via tests of (alleged) IQ, is hardly a stretch, is it?0 -
If she was American, it was probably Sandra Passing.Foxy said:
I used to work with a surgeon Mr Pain and was at medical School with Sandra Death, though I think she practised under another surname.TimS said:
Nominative determinism is always great to see. My favourite of the famous ones is Mark de Man, the Belgian footballer.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".TimS said:
My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Pratt's Bottom.maxh said:
I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?JosiasJessop said:
I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.Luckyguy1983 said:I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.
What beats it?
For full staff list:
https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html0 -
Agree about HnH. Not about Rutherford, though. And they have a point with the 'science' these people invent.FrankBooth said:
Rutherford and Hope Not Hate are aggressive activists. I'd take anything they say with a pinch of salt.JosiasJessop said:"Today, the Guardian, alongside @hopenothate , today publish an in depth undercover investigation into the efforts of a network of far right race and IQ obsessives, who have been trying to influence discourse about race science."
https://x.com/AdamRutherford/status/1846537873761116295
It's a good job we don't have a race and IQ obsessive on here...0 -
I understand a rolling roadblock but not how to stop a rogue car driving the wrong way on a motorwayEabhal said:
Went down the wrong slip and carried on driving in the wrong direction?Big_G_NorthWales said:
As a matter of interest how do the police intercept a car travelling the wrong way on a motorwayEabhal said:
What's weird is that the police were already on their way to intercept the driver, and there was a post on social media saying that the signs on the motorway were warning people that there was a car coming the other way.turbotubbs said:malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
Confusion? Miss a turn off and try to get back to it? Come off a junction round a bout and turn down the wrong road (the motorway exit, rather than the way on).malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
I am familiar with the area and it is fast and if near Tebay services there is a service road between both sides of the motorway and it could be the driver went down the wrong slip, though this is just guess work
The closing speed of the cars could have been near 140mph or more
For an obstruction the police would get in front of the traffic and do a rolling roadblock. No idea what they'd do after that with someone coming the other way.0 -
Fff…ffe..that would be an ecumenical matter.Benpointer said:
Crowds now gathering on PB to watch that rare phenomenon the fabled "@malcolmg apology".Eabhal said:
England and Wales, admittedly. I'll fish the stats for Scotland out for you.malcolmg said:
do you have evidence that 70% own their homes outright, sounds bollox to me. I can see you at forefront of pensioner culling as well, some crazy thing against pensioners whilst being loaded, pretty shabby to say the least. Hopefully you have feck all when you are a pensioner.Eabhal said:
No, actually.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So £13,000 pa income for a pensioner is 'like the rest of us' ?Eabhal said:
I think if pensioners have high enough incomes that bring them into tax, they should pay it like the rest of us.londonpubman said:
I suspect it will be the return of the age related personal allowance. A little extra for over 66s only to offset the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I wouldn't be surprised for Reeves to increase the allowance to sugar the pill of higher taxes and borrowingBarnesian said:
Increase the personal allowance a bit.Benpointer said:
Indeed, and because the DWP refuses or is unable to deduct ICT in the way every employer and every pension company in the land has too, those spensioners without private pensions will have to complete self-assessments. Often for a few £10s of tax due.Big_G_NorthWales said:Telegraph
The triple lock will raise 100 million next year as some pensioners are drawn into tax
Utterly daft comment - it will cost many billion
Utter madness.
A better offset for WFP would be to expand eligibility for PC a bit.
Pensioners typically have much lower housing costs (70% own their homes outright, and only 7% privately rent) and fewer dependents, so their equivalised household income after housing costs are, on average, much higher than the rest of the population even with the same income.
If we were to adjust the personal allowance to take account of these factors, it would be significantly lower, on average, for pensioners.
Of course, a significant proportion of pensioners are in poverty, which makes the vast wealth and high incomes of other pensioners all the more intolerable when it comes to freebies like WFP. Means testing pensioner benefits, using something like an expanded Pension Credit, is by far the most equitable option.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/householdcharacteristicsbytenureenglandandwales/census20210 -
It looks as if Jenrick referenced her without her permission so not surprisedwilliamglenn said:Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi.
https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/18465980005938054650 -
Do we need to get our tin helmets on?Benpointer said:
Crowds now gathering on PB to watch that rare phenomenon the fabled "@malcolmg apology".Eabhal said:
England and Wales, admittedly. I'll fish the stats for Scotland out for you.malcolmg said:
do you have evidence that 70% own their homes outright, sounds bollox to me. I can see you at forefront of pensioner culling as well, some crazy thing against pensioners whilst being loaded, pretty shabby to say the least. Hopefully you have feck all when you are a pensioner.Eabhal said:
No, actually.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So £13,000 pa income for a pensioner is 'like the rest of us' ?Eabhal said:
I think if pensioners have high enough incomes that bring them into tax, they should pay it like the rest of us.londonpubman said:
I suspect it will be the return of the age related personal allowance. A little extra for over 66s only to offset the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I wouldn't be surprised for Reeves to increase the allowance to sugar the pill of higher taxes and borrowingBarnesian said:
Increase the personal allowance a bit.Benpointer said:
Indeed, and because the DWP refuses or is unable to deduct ICT in the way every employer and every pension company in the land has too, those spensioners without private pensions will have to complete self-assessments. Often for a few £10s of tax due.Big_G_NorthWales said:Telegraph
The triple lock will raise 100 million next year as some pensioners are drawn into tax
Utterly daft comment - it will cost many billion
Utter madness.
A better offset for WFP would be to expand eligibility for PC a bit.
Pensioners typically have much lower housing costs (70% own their homes outright, and only 7% privately rent) and fewer dependents, so their equivalised household income after housing costs are, on average, much higher than the rest of the population even with the same income.
If we were to adjust the personal allowance to take account of these factors, it would be significantly lower, on average, for pensioners.
Of course, a significant proportion of pensioners are in poverty, which makes the vast wealth and high incomes of other pensioners all the more intolerable when it comes to freebies like WFP. Means testing pensioner benefits, using something like an expanded Pension Credit, is by far the most equitable option.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/householdcharacteristicsbytenureenglandandwales/census20210 -
Car Service by Pikop AndropovSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".TimS said:
My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Pratt's Bottom.maxh said:
I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?JosiasJessop said:
I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.Luckyguy1983 said:I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.
What beats it?
For full staff list:
https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html0 -
One of the most annoying recent trends. Everyone is talking about passing. Not even passing away. GrrBenpointer said:
If she was American, it was probably Sandra Passing.Foxy said:
I used to work with a surgeon Mr Pain and was at medical School with Sandra Death, though I think she practised under another surname.TimS said:
Nominative determinism is always great to see. My favourite of the famous ones is Mark de Man, the Belgian footballer.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".TimS said:
My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Pratt's Bottom.maxh said:
I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?JosiasJessop said:
I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.Luckyguy1983 said:I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.
What beats it?
For full staff list:
https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html1 -
So Malc was right after all! By -2% but then a miss is as good as a mile . . . maybe?Eabhal said:
68% in Scotland:Eabhal said:
England and Wales, admittedly. I'll fish the stats for Scotland out for you.malcolmg said:
do you have evidence that 70% own their homes outright, sounds bollox to me. I can see you at forefront of pensioner culling as well, some crazy thing against pensioners whilst being loaded, pretty shabby to say the least. Hopefully you have feck all when you are a pensioner.Eabhal said:
No, actually.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So £13,000 pa income for a pensioner is 'like the rest of us' ?Eabhal said:
I think if pensioners have high enough incomes that bring them into tax, they should pay it like the rest of us.londonpubman said:
I suspect it will be the return of the age related personal allowance. A little extra for over 66s only to offset the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I wouldn't be surprised for Reeves to increase the allowance to sugar the pill of higher taxes and borrowingBarnesian said:
Increase the personal allowance a bit.Benpointer said:
Indeed, and because the DWP refuses or is unable to deduct ICT in the way every employer and every pension company in the land has too, those spensioners without private pensions will have to complete self-assessments. Often for a few £10s of tax due.Big_G_NorthWales said:Telegraph
The triple lock will raise 100 million next year as some pensioners are drawn into tax
Utterly daft comment - it will cost many billion
Utter madness.
A better offset for WFP would be to expand eligibility for PC a bit.
Pensioners typically have much lower housing costs (70% own their homes outright, and only 7% privately rent) and fewer dependents, so their equivalised household income after housing costs are, on average, much higher than the rest of the population even with the same income.
If we were to adjust the personal allowance to take account of these factors, it would be significantly lower, on average, for pensioners.
Of course, a significant proportion of pensioners are in poverty, which makes the vast wealth and high incomes of other pensioners all the more intolerable when it comes to freebies like WFP. Means testing pensioner benefits, using something like an expanded Pension Credit, is by far the most equitable option.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/householdcharacteristicsbytenureenglandandwales/census2021
At the bottom of this: https://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/search-the-census#/topics/list?topic=Housing&categoryId=3
(Will let UKers do translation into kilometers!)1 -
Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .
In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .
In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .
It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !3 -
Just did some maths - a single parent with two secondary age kids, renting a flat with three bedrooms, would need to earn about £55,000 to attain the same standard of living as a pensioner on State Pension and owning their home outright.
That's 60% higher than the UK median salary.6 -
That's where Charles Dickens used to hang out I think.TimS said:
My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Pratt's Bottom.maxh said:
I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?JosiasJessop said:
I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.Luckyguy1983 said:I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.
What beats it?0 -
There used to be a primary school headteacher in maidenhead who rejoiced under the name of Jack Tw@t.Foxy said:
I used to work with a surgeon Mr Pain and was at medical School with Sandra De'Ath, though I think she practised under another surname.TimS said:
Nominative determinism is always great to see. My favourite of the famous ones is Mark de Man, the Belgian footballer.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".TimS said:
My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Pratt's Bottom.maxh said:
I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?JosiasJessop said:
I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.Luckyguy1983 said:I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.
What beats it?
For full staff list:
https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html
0 -
That tweet says she isn't backing either candidate.williamglenn said:Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi.
https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/18465980005938054650 -
Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.nico679 said:Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .
In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .
In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .
It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !
Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.0 -
Must be quite a feat.malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
Surprised this doesn't happen more often on dual carriageway A-roads though. The A303 has some rather dodgy minor junctions. Here's just one example:
www.google.co.uk/maps/0 -
Well, racists are often aggressive activists. I’d take anything they say with a pinch of salt. I have more faith in Hope Not Hate than in the AfD.FrankBooth said:
Rutherford and Hope Not Hate are aggressive activists. I'd take anything they say with a pinch of salt.JosiasJessop said:"Today, the Guardian, alongside @hopenothate , today publish an in depth undercover investigation into the efforts of a network of far right race and IQ obsessives, who have been trying to influence discourse about race science."
https://x.com/AdamRutherford/status/1846537873761116295
It's a good job we don't have a race and IQ obsessive on here...
0 -
It's an issue on the A9 where the two carriageways split south of Drumochter. Doesn't help the the road switches between dual and single a few times in that section.Benpointer said:
Must be quite a feat.malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
Surprised this doesn't happen more often on dual carriageway A-roads though. The A303 has some rather dodgy minor junctions. Here's just one example:
www.google.co.uk/maps/0 -
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/viewcode said:
How do you identify which are the good polls and the bad polls? Which of the pollsters in this are bad?TimT said:
They are clearly gaming the system. Why is a very important question. The fear is that they intend to argue that Trump ‘winning’ the polling averages ‘proves’ the results (when Harris wins) are fraudulent.Clutch_Brompton said:A very interesting poll out today in the US.
The 7 pollsters with the best track record since 2008 have all been putting a Dem lead at 2-3%. We now have a pollster breaking that trend. Marist put the Dems up by 5%. If that gets backed up by other pollsters then that would be significant.
The previous day's polls saw over 60% of reported polls coming from Rep Pty-linked concerns. I'm doing a litle work on the consequences of that. They tend to give the Reps 1-2% compared to other pollsters. They also have the Trump'vote within 0.5% in each of the seven battleground states. That would be very surprising.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election0 -
These days, it should be possible to automatically detect anything going the wrong way on a motorway and direct al legit traffic to pull over onto the hard shoulder until the culprit is stopped.Eabhal said:
What's weird is that the police were already on their way to intercept the driver, and there was a post on social media saying that the signs on the motorway were warning people that there was a car coming the other way.turbotubbs said:malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
Confusion? Miss a turn off and try to get back to it? Come off a junction round a bout and turn down the wrong road (the motorway exit, rather than the way on).malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-132343860 -
"Penny isn’t endorsing anyone in this contest" say Bad'enoch.Foxy said:
That tweet says she isn't backing either candidate.williamglenn said:Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi.
https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/18465980005938054650 -
That's a bit of a slap in the face to Bobby J actually, as he wrote a whole Conhome piece centered around how great Penny is!williamglenn said:Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi.
https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/1846598000593805465
https://conservativehome.com/2024/10/14/robert-jenrick-im-offering-a-unified-party-a-plan-policies-people-and-penny/
Though why he chose that headline when he hadn't even secured her endorsement is a bit weird?
The headline and image choice is a bit peculiar all in all, but I'm wondering if that was subediting by some Conhome intern type - the whole operation does seem very shonky there.
0 -
Edit - Oh I see she hasn't actually backed Kemi.Luckyguy1983 said:
That's a bit of a slap in the face to Bobby J actually, as he wrote a whole Conhome piece centered around how great Penny is!williamglenn said:Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi.
https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/1846598000593805465
https://conservativehome.com/2024/10/14/robert-jenrick-im-offering-a-unified-party-a-plan-policies-people-and-penny/
Though why he chose that headline when he hadn't even secured her endorsement is a bit weird?
The headline and image choice is a bit peculiar all in all, but I'm wondering if that was subediting by some Conhome intern type - the whole operation does seem very shonky there.0 -
True, but there's not backing and NOT BACKING.Foxy said:
That tweet says she isn't backing either candidate.williamglenn said:Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi.
https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/1846598000593805465
And at least Badenoch isn't offering Penny to the party. (No, not like that, ooh behave, the very thought of it...)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/15/mordaunt-distances-herself-jenrick-campaign-photo-posted/0 -
No hard shoulders in my neck of the woods.Benpointer said:
These days, it should be possible to automatically detect anything going the wrong way on a motorway and direct al legit traffic to pull over onto the hard shoulder until the culprit is stopped.Eabhal said:
What's weird is that the police were already on their way to intercept the driver, and there was a post on social media saying that the signs on the motorway were warning people that there was a car coming the other way.turbotubbs said:malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
Confusion? Miss a turn off and try to get back to it? Come off a junction round a bout and turn down the wrong road (the motorway exit, rather than the way on).malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
https://news.sky.com/story/m1-smart-motorway-crash-that-killed-two-would-not-have-happened-with-hard-shoulder-inquest-hears-128508051 -
Except that "Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi" is FAKE NEWS.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It looks as if Jenrick referenced her without her permission so not surprisedwilliamglenn said:Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi.
https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/18465980005938054651 -
50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.nico679 said:Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .
In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .
In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .
It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !
Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.1 -
Can you stop posting fake news.williamglenn said:Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi.
https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/18465980005938054653 -
Yes, it was very peculiar.Stuartinromford said:
True, but there's not backing and NOT BACKING.Foxy said:
That tweet says she isn't backing either candidate.williamglenn said:Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi.
https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/1846598000593805465
And at least Badenoch isn't offering Penny to the party. (No, not like that, ooh behave, the very thought of it...)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/15/mordaunt-distances-herself-jenrick-campaign-photo-posted/
And obviously Kemi's team sniffed around hoping to seriously embarrass Jenrick by clinching the PM endorsement, but she wasn't having that either. A women not to be taken for granted!0 -
It appears, sadly, that people are attracted to dehumanising lies about immigrants and minorities being to blame for everything, as we see here too.nico679 said:
50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.nico679 said:Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .
In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .
In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .
It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !
Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.1 -
Driving wrong way on motorway is NOT difficult to do IF driver is distracted, intoxicated and/or gaga.Benpointer said:
Must be quite a feat.malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
Surprised this doesn't happen more often on dual carriageway A-roads though. The A303 has some rather dodgy minor junctions. Here's just one example:
www.google.co.uk/maps/
OR suicidal.
Never done it myself - and no longer driving - but did it years ago, on a backroad in Northern Ireland, because I forgot to remind myself before I left the petrol station, that UKers (and Irish) drive on the left NOT the right.1 -
Good point.TheScreamingEagles said:
No hard shoulders in my neck of the woods.Benpointer said:
These days, it should be possible to automatically detect anything going the wrong way on a motorway and direct al legit traffic to pull over onto the hard shoulder until the culprit is stopped.Eabhal said:
What's weird is that the police were already on their way to intercept the driver, and there was a post on social media saying that the signs on the motorway were warning people that there was a car coming the other way.turbotubbs said:malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
Confusion? Miss a turn off and try to get back to it? Come off a junction round a bout and turn down the wrong road (the motorway exit, rather than the way on).malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
https://news.sky.com/story/m1-smart-motorway-crash-that-killed-two-would-not-have-happened-with-hard-shoulder-inquest-hears-128508050 -
I can't imagine how people aren't ashamed of themselves to say such a thing out loud.Benpointer said:
While at lunch last week I overheard a woman moaning about the loss of her WFA: "It covered the cost of heating the pool while we're in our villa in Spain through the winter."kyf_100 said:
The UK throughout my life has been defined by making the lives of people older than me better.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Scrap the triple lock. Starmer and Reeves are prats.
In my 20s, it was cheap credit and cheap housing that let people in their 40s become BTL millionaires.
By the time I hit that age... houses were too expensive and Osborne's reforms mean you get taxed on income, not profit. Also, you're screwed if you're a renter as a result of that, because lack of housebuilding means Mr Osborne's tax reforms get passed on to you.
Now pensioners wealth has to be protected at all costs. Despite the fact that many are sitting on hundreds of thousands of tax free gains in their property, and even those that aren't are guaranteed a pay rise when millions of us are not.
My father owns a string of houses with a net value of at least three million (lucky him) and uses his winter fuel allowance to keep the damp out of the one spare house he doesn't rent out but pops back to when he's occasionally back in the UK in the summer. The WFA should be means tested and if we're really saying it can't be done then it's scary that the state can't distinguish a millionaire pensioner from one on 10k a year.
She did at least spend it on fuel, in the winter, I guess.2 -
ApparentlySeaShantyIrish2 said:
Except that "Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi" is FAKE NEWS.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It looks as if Jenrick referenced her without her permission so not surprisedwilliamglenn said:Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi.
https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/18465980005938054650 -
They're not really cults though. Although they do have sub sections (eg evangelicals) that maybe fit the description.turbotubbs said:
Islam, Christianity, Budhism, etc all wave at this point…kinabalu said:
Would it be fair to say that MAGA is the world's biggest cult? I can't think of anything on quite the same scale. Certainly not in the West.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Try telling that to voters in Oregon and Washington. Where EVERY signature on returned ballot envelop, is checked against the voter's signature on file with election authorities (counties and Secretary of State.FrankBooth said:The US is surely making a mistake in moving to postal voting on demand. Will only increase peoples' suspicions about the validity of the ballot which Trump can be guaranteed to play on.
Easy to allege fraud, when your Trump or a MAGA-maniac cultist, because you then believe that ANY ballot cast against you is ipso facto illegitmate.0 -
You'd be surprisedAnneJGP said:
I can't imagine how people aren't ashamed of themselves to say such a thing out loud.Benpointer said:
While at lunch last week I overheard a woman moaning about the loss of her WFA: "It covered the cost of heating the pool while we're in our villa in Spain through the winter."kyf_100 said:
The UK throughout my life has been defined by making the lives of people older than me better.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Scrap the triple lock. Starmer and Reeves are prats.
In my 20s, it was cheap credit and cheap housing that let people in their 40s become BTL millionaires.
By the time I hit that age... houses were too expensive and Osborne's reforms mean you get taxed on income, not profit. Also, you're screwed if you're a renter as a result of that, because lack of housebuilding means Mr Osborne's tax reforms get passed on to you.
Now pensioners wealth has to be protected at all costs. Despite the fact that many are sitting on hundreds of thousands of tax free gains in their property, and even those that aren't are guaranteed a pay rise when millions of us are not.
My father owns a string of houses with a net value of at least three million (lucky him) and uses his winter fuel allowance to keep the damp out of the one spare house he doesn't rent out but pops back to when he's occasionally back in the UK in the summer. The WFA should be means tested and if we're really saying it can't be done then it's scary that the state can't distinguish a millionaire pensioner from one on 10k a year.
She did at least spend it on fuel, in the winter, I guess.
0 -
Easy Money by Robin Banks?TimT said:SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".TimS said:
My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Pratt's Bottom.maxh said:
I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?JosiasJessop said:
I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.Luckyguy1983 said:I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.
What beats it?
For full staff list:
https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html
Car Service by Pikop Andropov
Long Walk Home by Miss D Buss?0 -
OK. I have now come to the conclusion that Trump wants to lose.
Fox Host: The family of Amber Thurman, who died after not receiving urgent care needed for an infection under Georgia’s abortion ban, is speaking ahead of this town hall.
Trump: We’ll get better ratings, I promise.1 -
Do you mean geographically OR anatomically?Andy_JS said:
That's where Charles Dickens used to hang out I think.TimS said:
My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Pratt's Bottom.maxh said:
I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?JosiasJessop said:
I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.Luckyguy1983 said:I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.
What beats it?0 -
Oxford South services are so complicated you could end up on the wrong carriageway.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Driving wrong way on motorway is NOT difficult to do IF driver is distracted, intoxicated and/or gaga.Benpointer said:
Must be quite a feat.malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
Surprised this doesn't happen more often on dual carriageway A-roads though. The A303 has some rather dodgy minor junctions. Here's just one example:
www.google.co.uk/maps/
OR suicidal.
Never done it myself - and no longer driving - but did it years ago, on a backroad in Northern Ireland, because I forgot to remind myself before I left the petrol station, that UKers (and Irish) drive on the left NOT the right.
1 -
When Penny does a nice, friendly photoshoot with Jenrick then you can call it fake news.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can you stop posting fake news.williamglenn said:Penny Mordaunt is backing Kemi.
https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/18465980005938054650 -
I agree with you so much so I avoid themDaveyboy1961 said:
Oxford South services are so complicated you could end up on the wrong carriageway.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Driving wrong way on motorway is NOT difficult to do IF driver is distracted, intoxicated and/or gaga.Benpointer said:
Must be quite a feat.malcolmg said:
How the feck do you get on a motorway the wrong wayBig_G_NorthWales said:Report tonight that a car was being driven the wrong way on the M6 causing the terrible fatal crash
The driver apparently died along with 4 others
https://news.sky.com/story/two-children-among-five-dead-in-m6-crash-13234386
Surprised this doesn't happen more often on dual carriageway A-roads though. The A303 has some rather dodgy minor junctions. Here's just one example:
www.google.co.uk/maps/
OR suicidal.
Never done it myself - and no longer driving - but did it years ago, on a backroad in Northern Ireland, because I forgot to remind myself before I left the petrol station, that UKers (and Irish) drive on the left NOT the right.1 -
Is it because Trump stands for one man, one vote, one time?nico679 said:
50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.nico679 said:Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .
In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .
In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .
It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !
Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.1 -
At this point I need to post this incomparable letterDaveyboy1961 said:Foxy said:
I used to work with a surgeon Mr Pain and was at medical School with Sandra De'Ath, though I think she practised under another surname.TimS said:
Nominative determinism is always great to see. My favourite of the famous ones is Mark de Man, the Belgian footballer.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".TimS said:
My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Pratt's Bottom.maxh said:
I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?JosiasJessop said:
I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.Luckyguy1983 said:I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.
What beats it?
For full staff list:
https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html
There used to be a primary school headteacher in maidenhead who rejoiced under the name of Jack Tw@t.
https://lettersofnote.com/2009/10/28/we-all-feel-like-that-now-and-then/
1 -
How are the6 not cults? They are EXACTLY cults. Almost by definition.kinabalu said:
They're not really cults though. Although they do have sub sections (eg evangelicals) that maybe fit the description.turbotubbs said:
Islam, Christianity, Budhism, etc all wave at this point…kinabalu said:
Would it be fair to say that MAGA is the world's biggest cult? I can't think of anything on quite the same scale. Certainly not in the West.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Try telling that to voters in Oregon and Washington. Where EVERY signature on returned ballot envelop, is checked against the voter's signature on file with election authorities (counties and Secretary of State.FrankBooth said:The US is surely making a mistake in moving to postal voting on demand. Will only increase peoples' suspicions about the validity of the ballot which Trump can be guaranteed to play on.
Easy to allege fraud, when your Trump or a MAGA-maniac cultist, because you then believe that ANY ballot cast against you is ipso facto illegitmate.1 -
It’s tragic. Once you start de-humanizing people bad things happen . The US media are complicit in sanewashing Trump, instead of calling him out they’re dancing on the head of a pin. His campaign is a sea of hate.bondegezou said:
It appears, sadly, that people are attracted to dehumanising lies about immigrants and minorities being to blame for everything, as we see here too.nico679 said:
50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.nico679 said:Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .
In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .
In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .
It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !
Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.0 -
The world's great hope has to be Elon Musk. Quite how and why he has his odd political views I've no idea. His views as to the future are really rather inspiring.nico679 said:
It’s tragic. Once you start de-humanizing people bad things happen . The US media are complicit in sanewashing Trump, instead of calling him out they’re dancing on the head of a pin. His campaign is a sea of hate.bondegezou said:
It appears, sadly, that people are attracted to dehumanising lies about immigrants and minorities being to blame for everything, as we see here too.nico679 said:
50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.nico679 said:Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .
In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .
In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .
It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !
Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.0 -
It doesn’t matter what Trump does . He has a solid 45% of voters who will vote for him regardless of what he does. He could blow Bambi’s head off and start culling pensioners and the moronic cult members would still be clapping like seals .TimT said:OK. I have now come to the conclusion that Trump wants to lose.
Fox Host: The family of Amber Thurman, who died after not receiving urgent care needed for an infection under Georgia’s abortion ban, is speaking ahead of this town hall.
Trump: We’ll get better ratings, I promise.2 -
Surely this is fake....StillWaters said:
At this point I need to post this incomparable letterDaveyboy1961 said:Foxy said:
I used to work with a surgeon Mr Pain and was at medical School with Sandra De'Ath, though I think she practised under another surname.TimS said:
Nominative determinism is always great to see. My favourite of the famous ones is Mark de Man, the Belgian footballer.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Back in the day of the great "Car Talk" radio show on NPR hosted by Tom & Ray Magliozzi (aka Click & Clack) which was officially (?) conducted (?) under the aegis that fine old enterprise, Dewey, Cheetam & Howe, "Pat McCann" was listed as "Sexual Harrassment Intervention Counselor".TimS said:
My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Pratt's Bottom.maxh said:
I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?JosiasJessop said:
I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.Luckyguy1983 said:I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.
What beats it?
For full staff list:
https://jfi.uchicago.edu/~tten/Funny things/Car Talk- Credits.html
There used to be a primary school headteacher in maidenhead who rejoiced under the name of Jack Tw@t.
https://lettersofnote.com/2009/10/28/we-all-feel-like-that-now-and-then/
I didn't think lady gardens existed in the war...
0 -
Anyone who enables Trump deserves to fail miserably. We shouldn’t just give free passes to people because they might do other things that are seen as inspiring.Omnium said:
The world's great hope has to be Elon Musk. Quite how and why he has his odd political views I've no idea. His views as to the future are really rather inspiring.nico679 said:
It’s tragic. Once you start de-humanizing people bad things happen . The US media are complicit in sanewashing Trump, instead of calling him out they’re dancing on the head of a pin. His campaign is a sea of hate.bondegezou said:
It appears, sadly, that people are attracted to dehumanising lies about immigrants and minorities being to blame for everything, as we see here too.nico679 said:
50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.nico679 said:Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .
In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .
In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .
It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !
Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.1 -
Harris' problem is turnout of groups traditionally favourable to the Democrats. The upper end of her potential vote is more frothy than Trumps. It bothers to vote and she wins, no matter whether Trump gets his potential vote out or not.
The financial markets seem to be assuming Trump has got this, and at this point I think they are right.0 -
The amount of Hopium around Harris has been startling for weeks.Yokes said:Harris' problem is turnout of groups traditionally favourable to the Democrats. The upper end of her potentia vote is more frothy that Trumps. It bothers to vote and she wins, no matter whether Trump gets his potential vote out or not.
The financial markets seem to be assuming Trump has got this, and at this point I think they are right.
Smart money thinks Trump edges it.0 -
George Will believes that "World War III is already under way. Not that Harris or Trump has noticed."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/16/world-war-presidential-election-harris-trump/
I am inclined to agree with him, on both claims.
( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Will )0 -
Note how our PBs own Sophist-in-Chief publishes a fib . . . that is directly contracted by his own source . . . then trys to weasle out of it by . . . wait for it . . . more sophistry.
Directed at our Moderator-in-Chief no less. Deserving of Ignobel award for brazen bullshitting.0 -
.
It just demonstrates that is you repeat a lie often enough, as Trump does, even the neutral will be influenced by it.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
I have NOT lost MY secret ballot.FrankBooth said:
Any of the other 48 states? I regard the bigger issue as being the loss of the secret ballot. We used to demand good reason for a postal vote being granted.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Try telling that to voters in Oregon and Washington. Where EVERY signature on returned ballot envelop, is checked against the voter's signature on file with election authorities (counties and Secretary of State.FrankBooth said:The US is surely making a mistake in moving to postal voting on demand. Will only increase peoples' suspicions about the validity of the ballot which Trump can be guaranteed to play on.
Easy to allege fraud, when your Trump or a MAGA-maniac cultist, because you then believe that ANY ballot cast against you is ipso facto illegitmate.
There's lose talk about how family members coerce other family members, but that's frankly speculative BS.
Don't have list of all vote-by-mail states, though think Alaska is one of them.
Note that in WA State, one of the reasons why we went to all VBM, was because the majority of voters were already requesting absentee ballots for EVERY election.
Further note that, before Trump started frothing, it was REPUBLICANS who were most likely to request absentees.
The GOP efforts to question ballot safety, with barely a shed of evidence, have nearly half the country fully convinced, and a fair proportion of the rest taking them seriously.0 -
To be fair in previous World Wars the USA was rather slow to notice too.Jim_Miller said:George Will believes that "World War III is already under way. Not that Harris or Trump has noticed."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/16/world-war-presidential-election-harris-trump/
I am inclined to agree with him, on both claims.
( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Will )5 -
Musk though needs no free pass.nico679 said:
Anyone who enables Trump deserves to fail miserably. We shouldn’t just give free passes to people because they might do other things that are seen as inspiring.Omnium said:
The world's great hope has to be Elon Musk. Quite how and why he has his odd political views I've no idea. His views as to the future are really rather inspiring.nico679 said:
It’s tragic. Once you start de-humanizing people bad things happen . The US media are complicit in sanewashing Trump, instead of calling him out they’re dancing on the head of a pin. His campaign is a sea of hate.bondegezou said:
It appears, sadly, that people are attracted to dehumanising lies about immigrants and minorities being to blame for everything, as we see here too.nico679 said:
50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.nico679 said:Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .
In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .
In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .
It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !
Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.
I have a very dim view of Trump and his supporters.
I cannot reconcile these two things, but my hats off admiration of Musk's bravado at just going for the impossible is unbounded1 -
When was the last time people in Washington state voted in person at voting places?SeaShantyIrish2 said:Note how our PBs own Sophist-in-Chief publishes a fib . . . that is directly contracted by his own source . . . then trys to weasle out of it by . . . wait for it . . . more sophistry.
Directed at our Moderator-in-Chief no less. Deserving of Ignobel award for brazen bullshitting.0 -
He does run an impressive engineering company, but remains a moral imbecile.Omnium said:
Musk though needs no free pass.nico679 said:
Anyone who enables Trump deserves to fail miserably. We shouldn’t just give free passes to people because they might do other things that are seen as inspiring.Omnium said:
The world's great hope has to be Elon Musk. Quite how and why he has his odd political views I've no idea. His views as to the future are really rather inspiring.nico679 said:
It’s tragic. Once you start de-humanizing people bad things happen . The US media are complicit in sanewashing Trump, instead of calling him out they’re dancing on the head of a pin. His campaign is a sea of hate.bondegezou said:
It appears, sadly, that people are attracted to dehumanising lies about immigrants and minorities being to blame for everything, as we see here too.nico679 said:
50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.nico679 said:Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .
In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .
In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .
It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !
Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.
I have a very dim view of Trump and his supporters.
I cannot reconcile these two things, but my hats off admiration of Musk's bravado at just going for the impossible is unbounded2 -
...
I thought they were bang on time for both the 1917-18 war and the 1941-45 war.Foxy said:
To be fair in previous World Wars the USA was rather slow to notice too.Jim_Miller said:George Will believes that "World War III is already under way. Not that Harris or Trump has noticed."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/16/world-war-presidential-election-harris-trump/
I am inclined to agree with him, on both claims.
( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Will )6 -
They are just trolling us now.
BBC now using an advert just before the main news extolling their amazing news gathering and fact checking - "the fight for truth".
Literally the same day they canned a ton of news gathering and ditched hard news shows like Hard Talk having already butchered Newsnight and so on.3 -
NEW DETAILS ABOUT THE PAGERS
https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1846591352949125270
It is very interesting and impressive, but also should worry us all. This approach was undetectable by airport scanners etc and only sign something was a bit off was the battery didn't last quite as long as advertised.0 -
While BBC Verify doesn't know their arse from their elbow most of the time and even when they do, its a poor man's Bellingcat type analysis.rottenborough said:They are just trolling us now.
BBC now using an advert just before the main news extolling their amazing news gathering and fact checking - "the fight for truth".
Literally the same day they canned a ton of news gathering and ditched hard news shows like Hard Talk having already butchered Newsnight and so on.1 -
When I was at Uni around 1980 some right-wing Tories I encountered there were saying that WWIII was already in progress then e.g. in Angola , Zimbabwe etc. and "we" were losing it.Jim_Miller said:George Will believes that "World War III is already under way. Not that Harris or Trump has noticed."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/16/world-war-presidential-election-harris-trump/
I am inclined to agree with him, on both claims.
( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Will )2 -
Undetectable by airline scanners is worrying indeed.FrancisUrquhart said:NEW DETAILS ABOUT THE PAGERS
https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1846591352949125270
It is very interesting and impressive, but also should worry us all. This approach was undetectable by airport scanners etc and only sign something was a bit of was the battery didn't last quite as long as advertised.2 -
.
Smart money doesn't guess about something it has zero chance of predicting with confidence.Mortimer said:
The amount of Hopium around Harris has been startling for weeks.Yokes said:Harris' problem is turnout of groups traditionally favourable to the Democrats. The upper end of her potentia vote is more frothy that Trumps. It bothers to vote and she wins, no matter whether Trump gets his potential vote out or not.
The financial markets seem to be assuming Trump has got this, and at this point I think they are right.
Smart money thinks Trump edges it.5 -
It wasn't that long ago that there was the terrorist plot that loaded much more crude explosives into printers and insert them into the world logistics system, and it appears Russia might have copied this approach now. It shows there is are significant weaknesses in airfreight, and with shear volume of them, if you can use similar approaches that couldn't be easily scanned, seems unstoppable.Foxy said:
Undetectable by airline scanners is worrying indeed.FrancisUrquhart said:NEW DETAILS ABOUT THE PAGERS
https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1846591352949125270
It is very interesting and impressive, but also should worry us all. This approach was undetectable by airport scanners etc and only sign something was a bit of was the battery didn't last quite as long as advertised.0 -
Well, yes. I think that's right. The weird question is quite what he isn't saying when he's supporting Trump. Nobody in their right mind would support the buffoon after all. So what is it that he thinks he sees?Foxy said:
He does run an impressive engineering company, but remains a moral imbecile.Omnium said:
Musk though needs no free pass.nico679 said:
Anyone who enables Trump deserves to fail miserably. We shouldn’t just give free passes to people because they might do other things that are seen as inspiring.Omnium said:
The world's great hope has to be Elon Musk. Quite how and why he has his odd political views I've no idea. His views as to the future are really rather inspiring.nico679 said:
It’s tragic. Once you start de-humanizing people bad things happen . The US media are complicit in sanewashing Trump, instead of calling him out they’re dancing on the head of a pin. His campaign is a sea of hate.bondegezou said:
It appears, sadly, that people are attracted to dehumanising lies about immigrants and minorities being to blame for everything, as we see here too.nico679 said:
50% in the Georgia poll said Trump is the best choice to protect democracy ! I despair , it must be very frustrating being a liberal sane person in the USA .SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Why do you think that? In additon to moe, also differences between one state and another.nico679 said:Two new polls out from Quinnipiac which seem strange given what you might expect .
In Georgia Trump leads 52 to 46 head to head . Trump up 2 and Harris up 1 since their last poll .
In North Carolina Harris leads 50 to 47 head to head . Trump down 2 Harris up 2 .
It’s quite hard to believe those numbers can co-exist !
Note that aftermath of Hurricane Helene is creating challenges for election workers AND voters in both GA and NC, which may (emphasis on conditional) impact Trump more than Harris, esp in western North Carolina. Where outside of Asheville and Boone are mostly rural.
I have a very dim view of Trump and his supporters.
I cannot reconcile these two things, but my hats off admiration of Musk's bravado at just going for the impossible is unbounded1 -
Imagine the previous World Wars with Biden as President: "We'll give you weapons but you can't use them to hit Germany."Foxy said:
To be fair in previous World Wars the USA was rather slow to notice too.Jim_Miller said:George Will believes that "World War III is already under way. Not that Harris or Trump has noticed."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/16/world-war-presidential-election-harris-trump/
I am inclined to agree with him, on both claims.
( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Will )3 -
Dr. Foxy - Will makes this point in the rest of the column: The two presidential candidates in 1940, FDR and Wendell Wilkie, both went about as far as they could in getting the US prepared for war.
For instance, our first peace time draft was passed in September 1940 -- by one vote in the House of Representatives. (Most likely the Democratic leaders had a few to spare, if they needed them, but it was close.)
Those efforts cost FDR votes of German and Irish-Americans, but won him votes of Poles and Jews.1 -
Latest on Boomers grabbing all they can.
Pensions rise by £39 a month.
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
29m
Thursday’s i: “Benefits to rise £1.50 a week - as Reeves faces Labour backlash” #TomorrowsPapersToday0 -
Attended an event with Lord Frost for Jenrick this evening, he spoke well and had a good reception.
General feeling I got was it will be close between Kemi and Robert and at least 1 attendee had switched from Badenoch to Jenrick1 -
Ian Fleming did. He wrote James Bond novels while sitting at the Duck Inn (which is reopening soon after a hiatus of nearly a year). Bucolic spot.Andy_JS said:
That's where Charles Dickens used to hang out I think.TimS said:
My vineyard is in Pett Bottom. Or more specifically the small hamlet of Lynsore Bottom in the Pett Bottom valley. Lynsore bottom sounds too much like a topical ointment so I tend to stick with the naughty sounding Pett Bottom.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Pratt's Bottom.maxh said:
I love the name Mousehole. Also that it's actually Mouzle. Excellent Christmas lights too. Could it be in the top ten place names in the whole of UK do you think?JosiasJessop said:
I loved that film. Partly because it features an old sailor in Mousehole; and on a couple of occasions my dad took us to visit an elderly friend of his in Mousehole.Luckyguy1983 said:I watched Raise The Titanic. Classy film. Alec Guiness. John Barry score. An expensive flop - 'would have been cheaper to lower the sea'. But very good.
What beats it?0 -
I was being a bit tongue in cheek!Jim_Miller said:Dr. Foxy - Will makes this point in the rest of the column: The two presidential candidates in 1940, FDR and Wendell Wilkie, both went about as far as they could in getting the US prepared for war.
For instance, our first peace time draft was passed in September 1940 -- by one vote in the House of Representatives. (Most likely the Democratic leaders had a few to spare, if they needed them, but it was close.)
Those efforts cost FDR votes of German and Irish-Americans, but won him votes of Poles and Jews.
Better than not having them at all, with Trump as President.williamglenn said:
Imagine the previous World Wars with Biden as President: "We'll give you weapons but you can't use them to hit Germany."Foxy said:
To be fair in previous World Wars the USA was rather slow to notice too.Jim_Miller said:George Will believes that "World War III is already under way. Not that Harris or Trump has noticed."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/16/world-war-presidential-election-harris-trump/
I am inclined to agree with him, on both claims.
( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Will )0 -
He might though Harris is polling better with white women than any recent Democrat candidate did, including Obama.Yokes said:Harris' problem is turnout of groups traditionally favourable to the Democrats. The upper end of her potential vote is more frothy than Trumps. It bothers to vote and she wins, no matter whether Trump gets his potential vote out or not.
The financial markets seem to be assuming Trump has got this, and at this point I think they are right.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/white-women-could-win-election-harris-cnn-data-reporter-says
Some new swing states data
Quinnipiac
Georgia Trump 52% Harris 46%
North Carolina Harris 50% Trump 47%
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3914
Redfield
Wisconsin Harris 48% Trump 47%
Pennsylvania Harris 48% Trump 48%
Georgia Harris 47% Trump 47%
North Carolina Trump 48% Harris 46%
New Mexico Harris 49% Trump 45%
Nevada Harris 47% Trump 47%
Minnesota Harris 51% Trump 43%
Michigan Harris 47% Trump 47%
Florida Trump 50% Harris 44%
Arizona Trump 48% Harris 46%
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-12-14-october-2024/#usvipop0 -
It's all going to come down to the respective GOTV operations.HYUFD said:
He might though Harris is polling better with white women than any recent Democrat candidate did, including Obama.Yokes said:Harris' problem is turnout of groups traditionally favourable to the Democrats. The upper end of her potential vote is more frothy than Trumps. It bothers to vote and she wins, no matter whether Trump gets his potential vote out or not.
The financial markets seem to be assuming Trump has got this, and at this point I think they are right.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/white-women-could-win-election-harris-cnn-data-reporter-says
Some new swing states data
Quinnipiac
Georgia Trump 52% Harris 46%
North Carolina Harris 50% Trump 47%
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3914
Redfield
Wisconsin Harris 48% Trump 47%
Pennsylvania Harris 48% Trump 48%
Georgia Harris 47% Trump 47%
North Carolina Trump 48% Harris 46%
New Mexico Harris 49% Trump 45%
Nevada Harris 47% Trump 47%
Minnesota Harris 51% Trump 43%
Michigan Harris 47% Trump 47%
Florida Trump 50% Harris 44%
Arizona Trump 48% Harris 46%
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-12-14-october-2024/#usvipop4 -
LOL. Best of luck then! Dodgy Bobby will be a frigging disaster for your party.HYUFD said:Attended an event with Lord Frost for Jenrick this evening, he spoke well and had a good reception.
General feeling I got was it will be close between Kemi and Robert and at least 1 attendee had switched from Badenoch to Jenrick
Although has the advantage of being definitely thrown out in two years and so chance for a pre-election reset.0 -
Honestly, if the tory press are rubbing themselves raw on how unpopular Starmer is becoming what are they going to do when Jenrick tests the very depths of unpopular polling?
1 -
Call for Badenoch or Farage, probably.rottenborough said:Honestly, if the tory press are rubbing themselves raw on how unpopular Starmer is becoming what are they going to do when Jenrick tests the very depths of unpopular polling?
1 -
Well the polling puts him doing better than Kemi with the public.rottenborough said:Honestly, if the tory press are rubbing themselves raw on how unpopular Starmer is becoming what are they going to do when Jenrick tests the very depths of unpopular polling?
According to the Telegraph he would get a hung parliament in 4 years time, though with Labour on 302 quite hard to find enough coalition partners for a Tory government.1 -
Mug money.Mortimer said:
The amount of Hopium around Harris has been startling for weeks.Yokes said:Harris' problem is turnout of groups traditionally favourable to the Democrats. The upper end of her potentia vote is more frothy that Trumps. It bothers to vote and she wins, no matter whether Trump gets his potential vote out or not.
The financial markets seem to be assuming Trump has got this, and at this point I think they are right.
Smart money thinks Trump edges it.0 -
Speculating on the US...aside from the fact that Trump winning will have a massive impact on my emotional well being....
I'm hoping that US pollsters have overcorrected their methodologies from 2016/20, if not Trump wins all the swing states....
One thing that is for sure, a Trump victory would energise all the racist, populist notrights globally, and we have some here on pbCOM...1 -
He won't, a shock new poll of 6300 voters by Electoral Calculus released tonight has a Tory party led by Jenrick gaining 57 seats compared to 30 the party would gain under Badenoch.rottenborough said:Honestly, if the tory press are rubbing themselves raw on how unpopular Starmer is becoming what are they going to do when Jenrick tests the very depths of unpopular polling?
Jenrick would slash Labour's voteshare by 7% since July and Badenoch would also cut it by 6%
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/starmer-would-lose-majority-jenrick-were-tory-leader-poll/
0 -
Is that the Telegraph psychic department's own polling?Foxy said:
Well the polling puts him doing better than Kemi with the public.rottenborough said:Honestly, if the tory press are rubbing themselves raw on how unpopular Starmer is becoming what are they going to do when Jenrick tests the very depths of unpopular polling?
According to the Telegraph he would get a hung parliament in 4 years time, though with Labour on 302 quite hard to find enough coalition partners for a Tory government.1 -
Because only a small fraction of people who describe themselves as those things are zealous about it.turbotubbs said:
How are the6 not cults? They are EXACTLY cults. Almost by definition.kinabalu said:
They're not really cults though. Although they do have sub sections (eg evangelicals) that maybe fit the description.turbotubbs said:
Islam, Christianity, Budhism, etc all wave at this point…kinabalu said:
Would it be fair to say that MAGA is the world's biggest cult? I can't think of anything on quite the same scale. Certainly not in the West.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Try telling that to voters in Oregon and Washington. Where EVERY signature on returned ballot envelop, is checked against the voter's signature on file with election authorities (counties and Secretary of State.FrankBooth said:The US is surely making a mistake in moving to postal voting on demand. Will only increase peoples' suspicions about the validity of the ballot which Trump can be guaranteed to play on.
Easy to allege fraud, when your Trump or a MAGA-maniac cultist, because you then believe that ANY ballot cast against you is ipso facto illegitmate.0 -
GenuineHYUFD said:
He won't, a shock new poll of 6300 voters by Electoral Calculus released tonight has a Tory party led by Jenrick gaining 57 seats compared to 30 the party would gain under Badenoch.rottenborough said:Honestly, if the tory press are rubbing themselves raw on how unpopular Starmer is becoming what are they going to do when Jenrick tests the very depths of unpopular polling?
Jenrick would slash Labour's voteshare by 7% since July and Badenoch would also cut it by 6%
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/starmer-would-lose-majority-jenrick-were-tory-leader-poll/
1 -
The blind to reality departmentnova said:
Is that the Telegraph psychic department's own polling?Foxy said:
Well the polling puts him doing better than Kemi with the public.rottenborough said:Honestly, if the tory press are rubbing themselves raw on how unpopular Starmer is becoming what are they going to do when Jenrick tests the very depths of unpopular polling?
According to the Telegraph he would get a hung parliament in 4 years time, though with Labour on 302 quite hard to find enough coalition partners for a Tory government.0
