Kemi’s biggest problem when it comes to the membership outside the south east, Is that she’s seen as DougieSmith’s protege and that is likely fatal for her chances in the members ballot!
@NadineDorries 'Kemi is the long term protege of Gove and Dougie Smith. How does her network work?
Francis Maude launched her leadership campaign.
Maude runs a successful political consultancy, his business partner is Nick Boles.
Boles is v close to Gove and was a key player when Gove stabbed Boris in the back in 2016.
Maude is a close ally of Sue Gray, who is also a longstanding close friend of Gove.
Maude heaped effusive praise upon Gray when it was announced she had left the civil service and jumped to Labour.
He was also the hugest fan of the coalition government and was quick to publicly defend Dougie Smith, when it was disclosed that Smith ran the fever sex parties
Dougie Smith is a long standing close friend of Kemi and her husband and is closer to Gove than most. He is still on the CCHQ payroll.
Nick Boles works in Reeves office. Gray worked in Starmer’s. Now Maude wishes you to vote for Kemi to be leader of the opposition.
If you have contacts at the heart of every administration in Westminster, would that benefit your political advisory business?
Why do Gove (where he goes, Cummings goes too) Dougie Smith, Francis Maude and others want Kemi who would cross the road to pick a fight and cannot handle a media round, to be leader.
Because she’s the only candidate they have links to.
How? Kemi worked at the Spectator where Cummings wife worked and where Gove is now editor. Where James Forsyth worked who introduced Sunak to Dougie.
I asked someone who was very close to Sunak in No10, why he tolerated CCHQ paying Dougie when Dougie turned on him and the answer was ‘because Sunak is *ucking terrified of him,they all are.’
It won’t be just Kemi MPs will be voting for if she is put through to the final 2.
BoZo made a big play of claiming that nobody else paid for his suits (just his food, accommodation, wedding, holidays...)
Quite right too.
If I was a donor and paid however much this cost I would be horrified it still looks like a sack of shit
Can he not afford a belt?
Or decent shoes.
Those probably are v expensive shoes. Church’s or whatever
He’s one of those guys that looks scruffy in anything. To be fair, he’s realised this and turned it to his advantage - made it his shtick
Yes he has. I suffer from a similar problem (we have discussed before). I have short arms and legs and a long/broad body. If my legs were the right length for my body I would be very tall. If my body was the length that matched my legs I would be one of Snow White's dwarfs. Clothes are not attractive on me. Clothes suit long legs and not broad bodies.
I also struggle in a racing car. I can't get in a single seater. My head is higher than the rollbar even though I am within the height limit. I can't reach the pedals. I can't get the steering wheel on because of my thighs and my arms are outside of the cockpit. Otherwise I am a perfect fit.
Since I've put on a bit of weight and developed love handles I find it hard to find trousers that fit me properly. No one seems to make high waisted trousers that aren't for the very elderly so I'm forced to have trousers that sit unbecomingly low on my waist. If anyone has any tips or advice (other than to just lose the weight which I know already) it would be very welcome.
David C Bannerman @DCBMEP Calling all 121 Conservative MPs!? Please be very careful tomorrow in your choice. All my contacts across all Conservative groups. are warning that the wrong choice means they will be off to Reform with the wrong leader. In my view only @RobertJenrick can hold them back and reassure them. The new Leader could find the party further diminished from 100k membership now (down from 160k for Sunak v Truss) with Reform on 80k.
@AlisonPearson7 is saying the same thing if Continuity Cleverly wins - she’ll be off too: ‘If the new Conservative leader ends up being James Cleverly, that’s it’
There is a good case each of the three candidates can make to be put through & be elected. But I’m not convinced approach of “pick who I want or I’ll defect to another party” will impress Conservative MPs & members nor does it demonstrate much party loyalty. Could well backfire
It is a bit difficult - they do need to prevent further defection to Reform and also probably to win over people who voted Reform last time (regardless of whether those people were previous Tory voters), but it suggests just bluntly stating people will jump ship if the wrong candidate wins gives the impression that the party is already irrevocably broken if their factions are so distinct.
Those threatening to defect to Reform are probably UKIP cuckoos who have already done great harm to the party. The party will be well shot of them.
I don’t care if I look like a pathetic PB centrist dad with my stupid Garmin smartwatch
I just want to die later rather than earlier, and it seems that these might help
Genuinely surprised to read this.
Given all the booze and drugs you've done, I always kind of thought you took the "live well, die young" mentality?
I didn’t expect to be enjoying myself quite this much at this later stage. Lots of travel. Good friends. Still a decent income. Fascinating job. Get on with my kids (also worry about them - and they probably need me to hang about). Its a pretty good package
But it doesn’t just need me alive it needs me relatively fit and healthy. Think these watches might help
It is amazing what we can do these days at an older age if healthy. I am 70 in a few weeks. Admittedly I gave up squash when I was 40, catamarans in my 50s and skiing in my 60s, but I can still cycle 500 km in just over a week on holiday with little preparation and enjoy the good things in life and do physically challenging jobs daily eg I chop all the logs for our 3 stoves which is a hell of a lot of logs.
Compare this to the 1960s when I was a teenager. Philosan for the over 40s, many dead from cancer, heart attack or stroke in their 50s, knackered by your 60s.
We are so much luckier these days when we reach 60 if we are still fit.
A relative of mine is almost 70 and exercises for at least an hour every morning, weights and various cardio, and frequently go for 20 mile bike rides and the like.
It's not as though they are in perfect shape, they have periodic back troubles from 50 years of working in factories and buiding sites etc, so they have lighter exercise videos and chair exercises and such when that's all they can do.
I'd say it was inspirational, as it is fitter than I am, but it hasn't actually inspired me to action just yet. But put the work in earlier and it clearly pays off.
And people can just look really good thesedays too. Must have been a moisteriser revolution or something.
Not sure about looking good. On Sunday I was queuing for my COVID/flu vaccines. There was a second queue for slightly younger people who just get the flu jab. Both looked absolutely knacked. It keeps dawning on me that I must look like that. I still feel as if I look like a 30 year old. You don't see yourself or friends getting older.
PS I realised my post about your combined ages post was nonsense re hoping you were young. Your current age is irrelevant. Sorry having brain failure.
Kemi’s biggest problem when it comes to the membership outside the south east, Is that she’s seen as DougieSmith’s protege and that is likely fatal for her chances in the members ballot!
@NadineDorries 'Kemi is the long term protege of Gove and Dougie Smith. How does her network work?
Francis Maude launched her leadership campaign.
Maude runs a successful political consultancy, his business partner is Nick Boles.
Boles is v close to Gove and was a key player when Gove stabbed Boris in the back in 2016.
Maude is a close ally of Sue Gray, who is also a longstanding close friend of Gove.
Maude heaped effusive praise upon Gray when it was announced she had left the civil service and jumped to Labour.
He was also the hugest fan of the coalition government and was quick to publicly defend Dougie Smith, when it was disclosed that Smith ran the fever sex parties
Dougie Smith is a long standing close friend of Kemi and her husband and is closer to Gove than most. He is still on the CCHQ payroll.
Nick Boles works in Reeves office. Gray worked in Starmer’s. Now Maude wishes you to vote for Kemi to be leader of the opposition.
If you have contacts at the heart of every administration in Westminster, would that benefit your political advisory business?
Why do Gove (where he goes, Cummings goes too) Dougie Smith, Francis Maude and others want Kemi who would cross the road to pick a fight and cannot handle a media round, to be leader.
Because she’s the only candidate they have links to.
How? Kemi worked at the Spectator where Cummings wife worked and where Gove is now editor. Where James Forsyth worked who introduced Sunak to Dougie.
I asked someone who was very close to Sunak in No10, why he tolerated CCHQ paying Dougie when Dougie turned on him and the answer was ‘because Sunak is *ucking terrified of him,they all are.’
It won’t be just Kemi MPs will be voting for if she is put through to the final 2.
Succinctly put. And also you have put your finger firmly on her appeal. Kemi is riz.
Yes, but Kemi is also Liz Truss 2, only better spoken.
Is she better spoken? I find her just as wooden. I appreciate this is subjective. That said, I find most of both front benches pretty wooden and artificial.
The language here possibly a bit OTT for a politics prof, but he has a point, I reckon.
The truth is that everyday day life in Britain is utterly horrible for most people. You can't see a doctor, find a dentist, take a train or even get on a bus. Until that changes, we will just see rotation after rotation in our politics as voters search for an answer.
It feels broken because a lot of it is broken, or at best extremely tatty. It's the logical endpoint of things we've voted for (with our wallets as well as our ballots) for decades, but we're not going to acknowledge that. But until we do, we will collectively keep looking for that One Weird Trick that They Don't Want Us To Know.
Whatever the answer is, it ain't going to be easy or quick.
It's nonsense though. Today I saw a doctor at the drop of a hat. Four weeks ago I needed emergency dental work which I was able to get, along with two follow up appointments. Oh, and I got the tram there without incident. My kids all go to totally acceptable state schools
The story we are told is that nothing works. And indeed I listen to the story, and sometimes believing the story, I don't even try (to, for example, see a doctor). But when I'm forced to use the system, mostly, it works. I accept there are many examples of people for whom it doesn't. But the norm is a working system.
I don’t care if I look like a pathetic PB centrist dad with my stupid Garmin smartwatch
I just want to die later rather than earlier, and it seems that these might help
Genuinely surprised to read this.
Given all the booze and drugs you've done, I always kind of thought you took the "live well, die young" mentality?
I didn’t expect to be enjoying myself quite this much at this later stage. Lots of travel. Good friends. Still a decent income. Fascinating job. Get on with my kids (also worry about them - and they probably need me to hang about). Its a pretty good package
But it doesn’t just need me alive it needs me relatively fit and healthy. Think these watches might help
It is amazing what we can do these days at an older age if healthy. I am 70 in a few weeks. Admittedly I gave up squash when I was 40, catamarans in my 50s and skiing in my 60s, but I can still cycle 500 km in just over a week on holiday with little preparation and enjoy the good things in life and do physically challenging jobs daily eg I chop all the logs for our 3 stoves which is a hell of a lot of logs.
Compare this to the 1960s when I was a teenager. Philosan for the over 40s, many dead from cancer, heart attack or stroke in their 50s, knackered by your 60s.
We are so much luckier these days when we reach 60 if we are still fit.
My old man died just short of 55. His job entailed the installation of milling equipment. Flour mills, built with wooden frames, had a nasty habit of catching fire unless the timber was lined with asbestos. Pre-cut asbestos sheets wouldn't always fit so he'd have to climb in with a hand saw to trim the corners and edges. Ironically he went to his early grave believing it was due to his smoking habit because mesothelioma hadn't yet been invented.
One of my wife's university colleagues died of mesothelioma. There was an awful lot of asbestos in postwar school and university buildings.
I used to know a guy who'd carded the fibre for asbestos textiles, back in the early seventies. The factory used to be ankle deep in the dust.
The language here possibly a bit OTT for a politics prof, but he has a point, I reckon.
The truth is that everyday day life in Britain is utterly horrible for most people. You can't see a doctor, find a dentist, take a train or even get on a bus. Until that changes, we will just see rotation after rotation in our politics as voters search for an answer.
It feels broken because a lot of it is broken, or at best extremely tatty. It's the logical endpoint of things we've voted for (with our wallets as well as our ballots) for decades, but we're not going to acknowledge that. But until we do, we will collectively keep looking for that One Weird Trick that They Don't Want Us To Know.
Whatever the answer is, it ain't going to be easy or quick.
I agree. I'm an optimist in global terms, but things just seem kind of low grade crappy here right now, nothing much seems to work well, and in general people seem to flit between vaguely defined tricks to improve things, ignoring it, or leaning into the negatives.
The language here possibly a bit OTT for a politics prof, but he has a point, I reckon.
The truth is that everyday day life in Britain is utterly horrible for most people. You can't see a doctor, find a dentist, take a train or even get on a bus. Until that changes, we will just see rotation after rotation in our politics as voters search for an answer.
It feels broken because a lot of it is broken, or at best extremely tatty. It's the logical endpoint of things we've voted for (with our wallets as well as our ballots) for decades, but we're not going to acknowledge that. But until we do, we will collectively keep looking for that One Weird Trick that They Don't Want Us To Know.
Whatever the answer is, it ain't going to be easy or quick.
Also, you'll never get elected with that conclusion.
I don’t care if I look like a pathetic PB centrist dad with my stupid Garmin smartwatch
I just want to die later rather than earlier, and it seems that these might help
Genuinely surprised to read this.
Given all the booze and drugs you've done, I always kind of thought you took the "live well, die young" mentality?
I didn’t expect to be enjoying myself quite this much at this later stage. Lots of travel. Good friends. Still a decent income. Fascinating job. Get on with my kids (also worry about them - and they probably need me to hang about). Its a pretty good package
But it doesn’t just need me alive it needs me relatively fit and healthy. Think these watches might help
It is amazing what we can do these days at an older age if healthy. I am 70 in a few weeks. Admittedly I gave up squash when I was 40, catamarans in my 50s and skiing in my 60s, but I can still cycle 500 km in just over a week on holiday with little preparation and enjoy the good things in life and do physically challenging jobs daily eg I chop all the logs for our 3 stoves which is a hell of a lot of logs.
Compare this to the 1960s when I was a teenager. Philosan for the over 40s, many dead from cancer, heart attack or stroke in their 50s, knackered by your 60s.
We are so much luckier these days when we reach 60 if we are still fit.
I don’t care if I look like a pathetic PB centrist dad with my stupid Garmin smartwatch
I just want to die later rather than earlier, and it seems that these might help
Genuinely surprised to read this.
Given all the booze and drugs you've done, I always kind of thought you took the "live well, die young" mentality?
I didn’t expect to be enjoying myself quite this much at this later stage. Lots of travel. Good friends. Still a decent income. Fascinating job. Get on with my kids (also worry about them - and they probably need me to hang about). Its a pretty good package
But it doesn’t just need me alive it needs me relatively fit and healthy. Think these watches might help
It is amazing what we can do these days at an older age if healthy. I am 70 in a few weeks. Admittedly I gave up squash when I was 40, catamarans in my 50s and skiing in my 60s, but I can still cycle 500 km in just over a week on holiday with little preparation and enjoy the good things in life and do physically challenging jobs daily eg I chop all the logs for our 3 stoves which is a hell of a lot of logs.
Compare this to the 1960s when I was a teenager. Philosan for the over 40s, many dead from cancer, heart attack or stroke in their 50s, knackered by your 60s.
We are so much luckier these days when we reach 60 if we are still fit.
I don’t care if I look like a pathetic PB centrist dad with my stupid Garmin smartwatch
I just want to die later rather than earlier, and it seems that these might help
Genuinely surprised to read this.
Given all the booze and drugs you've done, I always kind of thought you took the "live well, die young" mentality?
I didn’t expect to be enjoying myself quite this much at this later stage. Lots of travel. Good friends. Still a decent income. Fascinating job. Get on with my kids (also worry about them - and they probably need me to hang about). Its a pretty good package
But it doesn’t just need me alive it needs me relatively fit and healthy. Think these watches might help
It is amazing what we can do these days at an older age if healthy. I am 70 in a few weeks. Admittedly I gave up squash when I was 40, catamarans in my 50s and skiing in my 60s, but I can still cycle 500 km in just over a week on holiday with little preparation and enjoy the good things in life and do physically challenging jobs daily eg I chop all the logs for our 3 stoves which is a hell of a lot of logs.
Compare this to the 1960s when I was a teenager. Philosan for the over 40s, many dead from cancer, heart attack or stroke in their 50s, knackered by your 60s.
We are so much luckier these days when we reach 60 if we are still fit.
BoZo made a big play of claiming that nobody else paid for his suits (just his food, accommodation, wedding, holidays...)
Quite right too.
If I was a donor and paid however much this cost I would be horrified it still looks like a sack of shit
Can he not afford a belt?
Or decent shoes.
Those probably are v expensive shoes. Church’s or whatever
He’s one of those guys that looks scruffy in anything. To be fair, he’s realised this and turned it to his advantage - made it his shtick
I look at that picture and think "that twat used to be our Prime Minister." He was a complete disaster for his party and his country. What anyone sees in that incompetent clown astonishes me.
BoZo made a big play of claiming that nobody else paid for his suits (just his food, accommodation, wedding, holidays...)
Quite right too.
If I was a donor and paid however much this cost I would be horrified it still looks like a sack of shit
Can he not afford a belt?
Or decent shoes.
Those probably are v expensive shoes. Church’s or whatever
He’s one of those guys that looks scruffy in anything. To be fair, he’s realised this and turned it to his advantage - made it his shtick
Yes he has. I suffer from a similar problem (we have discussed before). I have short arms and legs and a long/broad body. If my legs were the right length for my body I would be very tall. If my body was the length that matched my legs I would be one of Snow White's dwarfs. Clothes are not attractive on me. Clothes suit long legs and not broad bodies.
I also struggle in a racing car. I can't get in a single seater. My head is higher than the rollbar even though I am within the height limit. I can't reach the pedals. I can't get the steering wheel on because of my thighs and my arms are outside of the cockpit. Otherwise I am a perfect fit.
Since I've put on a bit of weight and developed love handles I find it hard to find trousers that fit me properly. No one seems to make high waisted trousers that aren't for the very elderly so I'm forced to have trousers that sit unbecomingly low on my waist. If anyone has any tips or advice (other than to just lose the weight which I know already) it would be very welcome.
Wear braces rather than belt. Clothes hang much better with braces than belt, tailors have long known this. With braces you can also size up on trousers without them becoming baggy, as they will ride a bit higher.
More that everyone is aware of Farage, Starmer and Sunak.
Starmer is actually the second most positive. Lots of DKs for the rest, including the remaining Tory leadership candidates.
The thing that should worry Starmer is that only 27% of the public have a positive impression of him compared to 35% who voted Labour at the last election. By contrast, Farage and Davey have much higher %s than voted for their parties.
Succinctly put. And also you have put your finger firmly on her appeal. Kemi is riz.
Yes, but Kemi is also Liz Truss 2, only better spoken.
Is she better spoken? I find her just as wooden. I appreciate this is subjective. That said, I find most of both front benches pretty wooden and artificial.
I mean posher. Kemi has that posh RP accent that upper class Nigerians have.
The language here possibly a bit OTT for a politics prof, but he has a point, I reckon.
The truth is that everyday day life in Britain is utterly horrible for most people. You can't see a doctor, find a dentist, take a train or even get on a bus. Until that changes, we will just see rotation after rotation in our politics as voters search for an answer.
It feels broken because a lot of it is broken, or at best extremely tatty. It's the logical endpoint of things we've voted for (with our wallets as well as our ballots) for decades, but we're not going to acknowledge that. But until we do, we will collectively keep looking for that One Weird Trick that They Don't Want Us To Know.
Whatever the answer is, it ain't going to be easy or quick.
It's nonsense though. Today I saw a doctor at the drop of a hat. Four weeks ago I needed emergency dental work which I was able to get, along with two follow up appointments. Oh, and I got the tram there without incident. My kids all go to totally acceptable state schools
The story we are told is that nothing works. And indeed I listen to the story, and sometimes believing the story, I don't even try (to, for example, see a doctor). But when I'm forced to use the system, mostly, it works. I accept there are many examples of people for whom it doesn't. But the norm is a working system.
Maybe the whingers should go and take a trip to eastern Ukraine or the middle east. They need to get a bit of perspective. "The truth is that everyday day life in Britain is utterly horrible for most people." What a piece of hyperbolic bollox. It is clearly a hard life being a mollycoddled Professor.
BoZo made a big play of claiming that nobody else paid for his suits (just his food, accommodation, wedding, holidays...)
Quite right too.
If I was a donor and paid however much this cost I would be horrified it still looks like a sack of shit
Can he not afford a belt?
Or decent shoes.
Those probably are v expensive shoes. Church’s or whatever
He’s one of those guys that looks scruffy in anything. To be fair, he’s realised this and turned it to his advantage - made it his shtick
Yes he has. I suffer from a similar problem (we have discussed before). I have short arms and legs and a long/broad body. If my legs were the right length for my body I would be very tall. If my body was the length that matched my legs I would be one of Snow White's dwarfs. Clothes are not attractive on me. Clothes suit long legs and not broad bodies.
I also struggle in a racing car. I can't get in a single seater. My head is higher than the rollbar even though I am within the height limit. I can't reach the pedals. I can't get the steering wheel on because of my thighs and my arms are outside of the cockpit. Otherwise I am a perfect fit.
Since I've put on a bit of weight and developed love handles I find it hard to find trousers that fit me properly. No one seems to make high waisted trousers that aren't for the very elderly so I'm forced to have trousers that sit unbecomingly low on my waist. If anyone has any tips or advice (other than to just lose the weight which I know already) it would be very welcome.
BoZo made a big play of claiming that nobody else paid for his suits (just his food, accommodation, wedding, holidays...)
Quite right too.
If I was a donor and paid however much this cost I would be horrified it still looks like a sack of shit
Can he not afford a belt?
Or decent shoes.
Those probably are v expensive shoes. Church’s or whatever
He’s one of those guys that looks scruffy in anything. To be fair, he’s realised this and turned it to his advantage - made it his shtick
I look at that picture and think "that twat used to be our Prime Minister." He was a complete disaster for his party and his country. What anyone sees in that incompetent clown astonishes me.
Some weird tricks that would solve our problems without us having to inconvenience ourselves.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
The language here possibly a bit OTT for a politics prof, but he has a point, I reckon.
The truth is that everyday day life in Britain is utterly horrible for most people. You can't see a doctor, find a dentist, take a train or even get on a bus. Until that changes, we will just see rotation after rotation in our politics as voters search for an answer.
It feels broken because a lot of it is broken, or at best extremely tatty. It's the logical endpoint of things we've voted for (with our wallets as well as our ballots) for decades, but we're not going to acknowledge that. But until we do, we will collectively keep looking for that One Weird Trick that They Don't Want Us To Know.
Whatever the answer is, it ain't going to be easy or quick.
I agree. I'm an optimist in global terms, but things just seem kind of low grade crappy here right now, nothing much seems to work well, and in general people seem to flit between vaguely defined tricks to improve things, ignoring it, or leaning into the negatives.
To be fair, most of the world feels like this at the moment, not just us. It's sliced a bit differently in different places, but optimism about the state of the country is pretty rare across not just the developed world, but also the old USSR, Middle East, much of Africa, Latin America etc.
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Succinctly put. And also you have put your finger firmly on her appeal. Kemi is riz.
Yes, but Kemi is also Liz Truss 2, only better spoken.
Is she better spoken? I find her just as wooden. I appreciate this is subjective. That said, I find most of both front benches pretty wooden and artificial.
I mean posher. Kemi has that posh RP accent that upper class Nigerians have.
BoZo made a big play of claiming that nobody else paid for his suits (just his food, accommodation, wedding, holidays...)
Quite right too.
If I was a donor and paid however much this cost I would be horrified it still looks like a sack of shit
Can he not afford a belt?
Or decent shoes.
Those probably are v expensive shoes. Church’s or whatever
He’s one of those guys that looks scruffy in anything. To be fair, he’s realised this and turned it to his advantage - made it his shtick
Yes he has. I suffer from a similar problem (we have discussed before). I have short arms and legs and a long/broad body. If my legs were the right length for my body I would be very tall. If my body was the length that matched my legs I would be one of Snow White's dwarfs. Clothes are not attractive on me. Clothes suit long legs and not broad bodies.
I also struggle in a racing car. I can't get in a single seater. My head is higher than the rollbar even though I am within the height limit. I can't reach the pedals. I can't get the steering wheel on because of my thighs and my arms are outside of the cockpit. Otherwise I am a perfect fit.
Since I've put on a bit of weight and developed love handles I find it hard to find trousers that fit me properly. No one seems to make high waisted trousers that aren't for the very elderly so I'm forced to have trousers that sit unbecomingly low on my waist. If anyone has any tips or advice (other than to just lose the weight which I know already) it would be very welcome.
Wear braces rather than belt. Clothes hang much better with braces than belt, tailors have long known this. With braces you can also size up on trousers without them becoming baggy, as they will ride a bit higher.
Thanks that's really good advice. I did actually try wearing braces for the first time the other day and liked the experience. I felt the need not to take my jacket off though as I didn't want to look like an 80s banker. Maybe I'll get used to the look eventually.
BoZo made a big play of claiming that nobody else paid for his suits (just his food, accommodation, wedding, holidays...)
Quite right too.
If I was a donor and paid however much this cost I would be horrified it still looks like a sack of shit
Can he not afford a belt?
Or decent shoes.
Those probably are v expensive shoes. Church’s or whatever
He’s one of those guys that looks scruffy in anything. To be fair, he’s realised this and turned it to his advantage - made it his shtick
I look at that picture and think "that twat used to be our Prime Minister." He was a complete disaster for his party and his country. What anyone sees in that incompetent clown astonishes me.
BoZo made a big play of claiming that nobody else paid for his suits (just his food, accommodation, wedding, holidays...)
Quite right too.
If I was a donor and paid however much this cost I would be horrified it still looks like a sack of shit
Can he not afford a belt?
Or decent shoes.
Those probably are v expensive shoes. Church’s or whatever
He’s one of those guys that looks scruffy in anything. To be fair, he’s realised this and turned it to his advantage - made it his shtick
Yes he has. I suffer from a similar problem (we have discussed before). I have short arms and legs and a long/broad body. If my legs were the right length for my body I would be very tall. If my body was the length that matched my legs I would be one of Snow White's dwarfs. Clothes are not attractive on me. Clothes suit long legs and not broad bodies.
I also struggle in a racing car. I can't get in a single seater. My head is higher than the rollbar even though I am within the height limit. I can't reach the pedals. I can't get the steering wheel on because of my thighs and my arms are outside of the cockpit. Otherwise I am a perfect fit.
I habe short legs and a long broad body too! So that's why. Also, shirts never stay tucked in. Because they are not long enough for my long broad body.
Tell me about it. Also short pullovers were a fashion in the 70s and you couldn't get long ones. They looked ridiculous on me as they were ridiculously very very short on me. And shirt cuffs that cover your hands, agggh.
Although the shirt not tucking was a source of fun. Margie Kensit, Patsy Kensit mum, was my (and others) secretary in the 80s. She was lovely and bonkers and took a great deal of interest in my love life, although never offered to introduce me to her daughter sadly. Anyway she spent a lot of time ensuring my shoes were clean and my shirt tucked in.
BoZo made a big play of claiming that nobody else paid for his suits (just his food, accommodation, wedding, holidays...)
Quite right too.
If I was a donor and paid however much this cost I would be horrified it still looks like a sack of shit
Can he not afford a belt?
Or decent shoes.
Those probably are v expensive shoes. Church’s or whatever
He’s one of those guys that looks scruffy in anything. To be fair, he’s realised this and turned it to his advantage - made it his shtick
Yes he has. I suffer from a similar problem (we have discussed before). I have short arms and legs and a long/broad body. If my legs were the right length for my body I would be very tall. If my body was the length that matched my legs I would be one of Snow White's dwarfs. Clothes are not attractive on me. Clothes suit long legs and not broad bodies.
I also struggle in a racing car. I can't get in a single seater. My head is higher than the rollbar even though I am within the height limit. I can't reach the pedals. I can't get the steering wheel on because of my thighs and my arms are outside of the cockpit. Otherwise I am a perfect fit.
Since I've put on a bit of weight and developed love handles I find it hard to find trousers that fit me properly. No one seems to make high waisted trousers that aren't for the very elderly so I'm forced to have trousers that sit unbecomingly low on my waist. If anyone has any tips or advice (other than to just lose the weight which I know already) it would be very welcome.
Wear braces rather than belt. Clothes hang much better with braces than belt, tailors have long known this. With braces you can also size up on trousers without them becoming baggy, as they will ride a bit higher.
You try taking on the big belt companies, they've gaslit us all.
BREAKING: Channel 4 announces plans for America Decides: US Election Results on Nov 5th hosted by @krishgm & @maitlis with @mattfrei & @theJeremyVine on data - exclusive guests inc @BorisJohnson & Stormy Daniels & a partnership with CNN to bring our viewers comprehensive coverage
Like him releasing his bookie-wookie to overshadow the Tory leadership contest, Johnson is desperate to remain relevant. He really does think he is Churchill in the wilderness.
BoZo made a big play of claiming that nobody else paid for his suits (just his food, accommodation, wedding, holidays...)
Quite right too.
If I was a donor and paid however much this cost I would be horrified it still looks like a sack of shit
Can he not afford a belt?
Or decent shoes.
Those probably are v expensive shoes. Church’s or whatever
He’s one of those guys that looks scruffy in anything. To be fair, he’s realised this and turned it to his advantage - made it his shtick
I look at that picture and think "that twat used to be our Prime Minister." He was a complete disaster for his party and his country. What anyone sees in that incompetent clown astonishes me.
Two words: Not Corbyn.
Well indeed. It was a choice between Dumb and Dumber.
BoZo made a big play of claiming that nobody else paid for his suits (just his food, accommodation, wedding, holidays...)
Quite right too.
If I was a donor and paid however much this cost I would be horrified it still looks like a sack of shit
Can he not afford a belt?
Or decent shoes.
Those probably are v expensive shoes. Church’s or whatever
He’s one of those guys that looks scruffy in anything. To be fair, he’s realised this and turned it to his advantage - made it his shtick
Yes he has. I suffer from a similar problem (we have discussed before). I have short arms and legs and a long/broad body. If my legs were the right length for my body I would be very tall. If my body was the length that matched my legs I would be one of Snow White's dwarfs. Clothes are not attractive on me. Clothes suit long legs and not broad bodies.
I also struggle in a racing car. I can't get in a single seater. My head is higher than the rollbar even though I am within the height limit. I can't reach the pedals. I can't get the steering wheel on because of my thighs and my arms are outside of the cockpit. Otherwise I am a perfect fit.
Since I've put on a bit of weight and developed love handles I find it hard to find trousers that fit me properly. No one seems to make high waisted trousers that aren't for the very elderly so I'm forced to have trousers that sit unbecomingly low on my waist. If anyone has any tips or advice (other than to just lose the weight which I know already) it would be very welcome.
Wear braces rather than belt. Clothes hang much better with braces than belt, tailors have long known this. With braces you can also size up on trousers without them becoming baggy, as they will ride a bit higher.
Thanks that's really good advice. I did actually try wearing braces for the first time the other day and liked the experience. I felt the need not to take my jacket off though as I didn't want to look like an 80s banker. Maybe I'll get used to the look eventually.
BoZo made a big play of claiming that nobody else paid for his suits (just his food, accommodation, wedding, holidays...)
Quite right too.
If I was a donor and paid however much this cost I would be horrified it still looks like a sack of shit
Can he not afford a belt?
Or decent shoes.
Those probably are v expensive shoes. Church’s or whatever
He’s one of those guys that looks scruffy in anything. To be fair, he’s realised this and turned it to his advantage - made it his shtick
Yes he has. I suffer from a similar problem (we have discussed before). I have short arms and legs and a long/broad body. If my legs were the right length for my body I would be very tall. If my body was the length that matched my legs I would be one of Snow White's dwarfs. Clothes are not attractive on me. Clothes suit long legs and not broad bodies.
I also struggle in a racing car. I can't get in a single seater. My head is higher than the rollbar even though I am within the height limit. I can't reach the pedals. I can't get the steering wheel on because of my thighs and my arms are outside of the cockpit. Otherwise I am a perfect fit.
Since I've put on a bit of weight and developed love handles I find it hard to find trousers that fit me properly. No one seems to make high waisted trousers that aren't for the very elderly so I'm forced to have trousers that sit unbecomingly low on my waist. If anyone has any tips or advice (other than to just lose the weight which I know already) it would be very welcome.
Wear braces rather than belt. Clothes hang much better with braces than belt, tailors have long known this. With braces you can also size up on trousers without them becoming baggy, as they will ride a bit higher.
Thanks that's really good advice. I did actually try wearing braces for the first time the other day and liked the experience. I felt the need not to take my jacket off though as I didn't want to look like an 80s banker. Maybe I'll get used to the look eventually.
BoZo made a big play of claiming that nobody else paid for his suits (just his food, accommodation, wedding, holidays...)
Quite right too.
If I was a donor and paid however much this cost I would be horrified it still looks like a sack of shit
Can he not afford a belt?
Or decent shoes.
Those probably are v expensive shoes. Church’s or whatever
He’s one of those guys that looks scruffy in anything. To be fair, he’s realised this and turned it to his advantage - made it his shtick
Yes he has. I suffer from a similar problem (we have discussed before). I have short arms and legs and a long/broad body. If my legs were the right length for my body I would be very tall. If my body was the length that matched my legs I would be one of Snow White's dwarfs. Clothes are not attractive on me. Clothes suit long legs and not broad bodies.
I also struggle in a racing car. I can't get in a single seater. My head is higher than the rollbar even though I am within the height limit. I can't reach the pedals. I can't get the steering wheel on because of my thighs and my arms are outside of the cockpit. Otherwise I am a perfect fit.
Since I've put on a bit of weight and developed love handles I find it hard to find trousers that fit me properly. No one seems to make high waisted trousers that aren't for the very elderly so I'm forced to have trousers that sit unbecomingly low on my waist. If anyone has any tips or advice (other than to just lose the weight which I know already) it would be very welcome.
Wear braces rather than belt. Clothes hang much better with braces than belt, tailors have long known this. With braces you can also size up on trousers without them becoming baggy, as they will ride a bit higher.
You try taking on the big belt companies, they've gaslit us all.
Belts only really became popular post war, prior to then people wore braces.
In part it was because braces generally were worn under a waistcoat, and these became unfashionable post war.
The language here possibly a bit OTT for a politics prof, but he has a point, I reckon.
The truth is that everyday day life in Britain is utterly horrible for most people. You can't see a doctor, find a dentist, take a train or even get on a bus. Until that changes, we will just see rotation after rotation in our politics as voters search for an answer.
It feels broken because a lot of it is broken, or at best extremely tatty. It's the logical endpoint of things we've voted for (with our wallets as well as our ballots) for decades, but we're not going to acknowledge that. But until we do, we will collectively keep looking for that One Weird Trick that They Don't Want Us To Know.
Whatever the answer is, it ain't going to be easy or quick.
It's nonsense though. Today I saw a doctor at the drop of a hat. Four weeks ago I needed emergency dental work which I was able to get, along with two follow up appointments. Oh, and I got the tram there without incident. My kids all go to totally acceptable state schools
The story we are told is that nothing works. And indeed I listen to the story, and sometimes believing the story, I don't even try (to, for example, see a doctor). But when I'm forced to use the system, mostly, it works. I accept there are many examples of people for whom it doesn't. But the norm is a working system.
Maybe the whingers should go and take a trip to eastern Ukraine or the middle east. They need to get a bit of perspective. "The truth is that everyday day life in Britain is utterly horrible for most people." What a piece of hyperbolic bollox. It is clearly a hard life being a mollycoddled Professor.
Good luck putting that on an election poster.
And yes, "horrible" is OTT. But "grindingly mediocre" takes more characters. Every time one looks round, another thing that makes our common life agreeable has fallen off or over. (Latest here is that the local council can't afford a switch-on event for Christmas lights.)
And the story of the last decade or so has been voters scrabbling around for someone to flick a switch and make it better. It was the appeal of Brexit, Corbyn, Johnson and Truss. Sunak wasn't above it, either.
BREAKING: Channel 4 announces plans for America Decides: US Election Results on Nov 5th hosted by @krishgm & @maitlis with @mattfrei & @theJeremyVine on data - exclusive guests inc @BorisJohnson & Stormy Daniels & a partnership with CNN to bring our viewers comprehensive coverage
Like him releasing his bookie-wookie to overshadow the Tory leadership contest, Johnson is desperate to remain relevant. He really does think he is Churchill in the wilderness.
Complete this sentence:
Boris Johnson is to Churchill what ****** is to *******
BoZo made a big play of claiming that nobody else paid for his suits (just his food, accommodation, wedding, holidays...)
Quite right too.
If I was a donor and paid however much this cost I would be horrified it still looks like a sack of shit
Can he not afford a belt?
Or decent shoes.
Those probably are v expensive shoes. Church’s or whatever
He’s one of those guys that looks scruffy in anything. To be fair, he’s realised this and turned it to his advantage - made it his shtick
Yes he has. I suffer from a similar problem (we have discussed before). I have short arms and legs and a long/broad body. If my legs were the right length for my body I would be very tall. If my body was the length that matched my legs I would be one of Snow White's dwarfs. Clothes are not attractive on me. Clothes suit long legs and not broad bodies.
I also struggle in a racing car. I can't get in a single seater. My head is higher than the rollbar even though I am within the height limit. I can't reach the pedals. I can't get the steering wheel on because of my thighs and my arms are outside of the cockpit. Otherwise I am a perfect fit.
Since I've put on a bit of weight and developed love handles I find it hard to find trousers that fit me properly. No one seems to make high waisted trousers that aren't for the very elderly so I'm forced to have trousers that sit unbecomingly low on my waist. If anyone has any tips or advice (other than to just lose the weight which I know already) it would be very welcome.
Wear braces rather than belt. Clothes hang much better with braces than belt, tailors have long known this. With braces you can also size up on trousers without them becoming baggy, as they will ride a bit higher.
You try taking on the big belt companies, they've gaslit us all.
Belts only really became popular post war, prior to then people wore braces.
In part it was because braces generally were worn under a waistcoat, and these became unfashionable post war.
Ah, well I generally wear a waistcoat, so should be good.
Now, which politicians generally wear waistcoats, so I know which to vote for?
(I also wear broad brimmed hats, so really braces seem like an inevitable addition to my outfit at some point).
The language here possibly a bit OTT for a politics prof, but he has a point, I reckon.
The truth is that everyday day life in Britain is utterly horrible for most people. You can't see a doctor, find a dentist, take a train or even get on a bus. Until that changes, we will just see rotation after rotation in our politics as voters search for an answer.
It feels broken because a lot of it is broken, or at best extremely tatty. It's the logical endpoint of things we've voted for (with our wallets as well as our ballots) for decades, but we're not going to acknowledge that. But until we do, we will collectively keep looking for that One Weird Trick that They Don't Want Us To Know.
Whatever the answer is, it ain't going to be easy or quick.
It's nonsense though. Today I saw a doctor at the drop of a hat. Four weeks ago I needed emergency dental work which I was able to get, along with two follow up appointments. Oh, and I got the tram there without incident. My kids all go to totally acceptable state schools
The story we are told is that nothing works. And indeed I listen to the story, and sometimes believing the story, I don't even try (to, for example, see a doctor). But when I'm forced to use the system, mostly, it works. I accept there are many examples of people for whom it doesn't. But the norm is a working system.
Maybe the whingers should go and take a trip to eastern Ukraine or the middle east. They need to get a bit of perspective. "The truth is that everyday day life in Britain is utterly horrible for most people." What a piece of hyperbolic bollox. It is clearly a hard life being a mollycoddled Professor.
Good luck putting that on an election poster.
And yes, "horrible" is OTT. But "grindingly mediocre" takes more characters. Every time one looks round, another thing that makes our common life agreeable has fallen off or over. (Latest here is that the local council can't afford a switch-on event for Christmas lights.)
And the story of the last decade or so has been voters scrabbling around for someone to flick a switch and make it better. It was the appeal of Brexit, Corbyn, Johnson and Truss. Sunak wasn't above it, either.
Yes, and the thing is pointing out many people have it a lot lot worse does not really make people grateful for what they have, even when it is true. We can see calling everything horrible is nonsense and the argument gets rejected, but 'too many things are crappy'? That resonates more.
Even if we the public are often responsible by what we reward politicians for, or punish them for.
I don’t care if I look like a pathetic PB centrist dad with my stupid Garmin smartwatch
I just want to die later rather than earlier, and it seems that these might help
Genuinely surprised to read this.
Given all the booze and drugs you've done, I always kind of thought you took the "live well, die young" mentality?
I didn’t expect to be enjoying myself quite this much at this later stage. Lots of travel. Good friends. Still a decent income. Fascinating job. Get on with my kids (also worry about them - and they probably need me to hang about). Its a pretty good package
But it doesn’t just need me alive it needs me relatively fit and healthy. Think these watches might help
It is amazing what we can do these days at an older age if healthy. I am 70 in a few weeks. Admittedly I gave up squash when I was 40, catamarans in my 50s and skiing in my 60s, but I can still cycle 500 km in just over a week on holiday with little preparation and enjoy the good things in life and do physically challenging jobs daily eg I chop all the logs for our 3 stoves which is a hell of a lot of logs.
Compare this to the 1960s when I was a teenager. Philosan for the over 40s, many dead from cancer, heart attack or stroke in their 50s, knackered by your 60s.
We are so much luckier these days when we reach 60 if we are still fit.
I'll be skiing again next Spring at 82.
I'm impressed. Aren't you scared of falling? I'm not really happy until I have had a big wipeout and both skis have come off. That hadn't happened for a few years and then I had a trivial fall and broke my ribs, although nothing serious. I did tend to like skiing challenging runs rather than blues though which made it more of a reason to stop. I do miss it a lot.
BREAKING: Channel 4 announces plans for America Decides: US Election Results on Nov 5th hosted by @krishgm & @maitlis with @mattfrei & @theJeremyVine on data - exclusive guests inc @BorisJohnson & Stormy Daniels & a partnership with CNN to bring our viewers comprehensive coverage
The language here possibly a bit OTT for a politics prof, but he has a point, I reckon.
The truth is that everyday day life in Britain is utterly horrible for most people. You can't see a doctor, find a dentist, take a train or even get on a bus. Until that changes, we will just see rotation after rotation in our politics as voters search for an answer.
It feels broken because a lot of it is broken, or at best extremely tatty. It's the logical endpoint of things we've voted for (with our wallets as well as our ballots) for decades, but we're not going to acknowledge that. But until we do, we will collectively keep looking for that One Weird Trick that They Don't Want Us To Know.
Whatever the answer is, it ain't going to be easy or quick.
Its the logical endpoint of spending far, far too much on welfare for people who do not need it.
Its not the endpoint of taxing too little as taxes are at a record high.
Yet still people squeal like spoilt brats at losing the winter fuel allowance.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
See the NYTimes poll for Florida - it's Trump +13
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
See the NYTimes poll for Florida - it's Trump +13
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
I wonder. If Trump were to lose very badly, would it help to kill Trump-ism, or is the Republican Party unsalvageable?
I don’t care if I look like a pathetic PB centrist dad with my stupid Garmin smartwatch
I just want to die later rather than earlier, and it seems that these might help
Genuinely surprised to read this.
Given all the booze and drugs you've done, I always kind of thought you took the "live well, die young" mentality?
I didn’t expect to be enjoying myself quite this much at this later stage. Lots of travel. Good friends. Still a decent income. Fascinating job. Get on with my kids (also worry about them - and they probably need me to hang about). Its a pretty good package
But it doesn’t just need me alive it needs me relatively fit and healthy. Think these watches might help
It is amazing what we can do these days at an older age if healthy. I am 70 in a few weeks. Admittedly I gave up squash when I was 40, catamarans in my 50s and skiing in my 60s, but I can still cycle 500 km in just over a week on holiday with little preparation and enjoy the good things in life and do physically challenging jobs daily eg I chop all the logs for our 3 stoves which is a hell of a lot of logs.
Compare this to the 1960s when I was a teenager. Philosan for the over 40s, many dead from cancer, heart attack or stroke in their 50s, knackered by your 60s.
We are so much luckier these days when we reach 60 if we are still fit.
I'll be skiing again next Spring at 82.
I have an investor in my business called Meyer. He's 98. (And fully fit and with it. Except his hearing.)
He gave up skiing at 86, when his doctor said to him "Meyer, you're 86 years old. If you fall, you won't be getting up again."
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
See the NYTimes poll for Florida - it's Trump +13
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
I wonder. If Trump were to lose very badly, would it help to kill Trump-ism, or is the Republican Party unsalvageable?
I think the Right is fissured in both the US and the UK. Trump losing badly doesn't heal that fissure.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
See the NYTimes poll for Florida - it's Trump +13
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
I wonder. If Trump were to lose very badly, would it help to kill Trump-ism, or is the Republican Party unsalvageable?
Things have gotten so bitter, so odious, with so many boundaries of previously acceptable behaviour pushed back, that I'm not sure a bad loss would kill it.
It would probably help, though a more likely scenario is that Trump outperforms in some areas - for instance the wannabee Trumps like Lake likely to lose badly in Arizona, whilst there's a good chance he wins it. Now, that might lead them to think trying to be like Trump whilst not being Trump doesn't work, or they may triple down to attempt to be even more like Trump.
I have said for a long time that Cleverly is the Tories' best option. It seems very, very obvious to me. So what is the case against him? There must be one.
He's not the brightest.
He'll be a centrist plodder when they need to roll the dice is a case against him I guess.
Although I can tell you for a fact that Labour want Badenoch. But who knows who the best choice is. Whoever gets it could surprise in either direction and the next GE is ages away.
I'm torn between Badenoch and Cleverly. Cleverly is on paper the best candidate (affable, non-alienating) - he will get a hearing, but it might be a hearing which concludes "Thanks, but still no." Badenoch could be awful (is she a capable manager/administrator/people handler? Maybe she is, but I've not seen much to convince me) or could be brilliant (in a reaches-the-parts-other-Tories-don't-reach way). Both seem to me preferable to Jenrick.
Badenoch is as mad as Truss and also seems to be heading down the ultra libertarian line while being obsessively anti woke.
Cleverly is Rishi 2 with less energy and drive, so it is Jenrick for me now, at least he is offering something different and with vigour
It is my ardent prayer that for the sake of the conservative party that Jenrick is nowhere near the leadership
Maybe but at the moment I have a vote as a party member and you don't, if Jenrick gets through tomorrow
Yes but I want a conservative party that can win power, not an imitation of Reform
Jenrick would be the worst possible choice
Badenoch would be the worst choice actually, polling worst of the final 3 v Starmer with More in Common amongst 2019 Conservative voters
As always HYUFD, you're good with the polling evidence. But I'd suggest there's a massive don't know factor with this one. None of these four are well known with 2019 voters, and there's massive scope to change minds, for better or worse.
I think Badenoch will win the contest, and has a good chance of becoming PM at the next general election.
I don’t care if I look like a pathetic PB centrist dad with my stupid Garmin smartwatch
I just want to die later rather than earlier, and it seems that these might help
Genuinely surprised to read this.
Given all the booze and drugs you've done, I always kind of thought you took the "live well, die young" mentality?
I didn’t expect to be enjoying myself quite this much at this later stage. Lots of travel. Good friends. Still a decent income. Fascinating job. Get on with my kids (also worry about them - and they probably need me to hang about). Its a pretty good package
But it doesn’t just need me alive it needs me relatively fit and healthy. Think these watches might help
It is amazing what we can do these days at an older age if healthy. I am 70 in a few weeks. Admittedly I gave up squash when I was 40, catamarans in my 50s and skiing in my 60s, but I can still cycle 500 km in just over a week on holiday with little preparation and enjoy the good things in life and do physically challenging jobs daily eg I chop all the logs for our 3 stoves which is a hell of a lot of logs.
Compare this to the 1960s when I was a teenager. Philosan for the over 40s, many dead from cancer, heart attack or stroke in their 50s, knackered by your 60s.
We are so much luckier these days when we reach 60 if we are still fit.
I'll be skiing again next Spring at 82.
I'm impressed. Aren't you scared of falling? I'm not really happy until I have had a big wipeout and both skis have come off. That hadn't happened for a few years and then I had a trivial fall and broke my ribs, although nothing serious. I did tend to like skiing challenging runs rather than blues though which made it more of a reason to stop. I do miss it a lot.
I fall occasionally. I find it difficult to get back up unless I'm on a steep slope. But people stop and pull me up and push me off.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
See the NYTimes poll for Florida - it's Trump +13
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
I wonder. If Trump were to lose very badly, would it help to kill Trump-ism, or is the Republican Party unsalvageable?
Things have gotten so bitter, so odious, with so many boundaries of previously acceptable behaviour pushed back, that I'm not sure a bad loss would kill it.
It would probably help, though a more likely scenario is that Trump outperforms in some areas - for instance the wannabee Trumps like Lake likely to lose badly in Arizona, whilst there's a good chance he wins it. Now, that might lead them to think trying to be like Trump whilst not being Trump doesn't work, or they may triple down to attempt to be even more like Trump.
In a normal world, electoral loss would be taken as a signal that change was needed if the electorate was to vote for you.
In Trump world, electoral loss means you were cheated. Personally, I am not bothered by Trumpian politics, but I am extremely disturbed by the erosion of democratic norms.
I don’t care if I look like a pathetic PB centrist dad with my stupid Garmin smartwatch
I just want to die later rather than earlier, and it seems that these might help
Genuinely surprised to read this.
Given all the booze and drugs you've done, I always kind of thought you took the "live well, die young" mentality?
I didn’t expect to be enjoying myself quite this much at this later stage. Lots of travel. Good friends. Still a decent income. Fascinating job. Get on with my kids (also worry about them - and they probably need me to hang about). Its a pretty good package
But it doesn’t just need me alive it needs me relatively fit and healthy. Think these watches might help
It is amazing what we can do these days at an older age if healthy. I am 70 in a few weeks. Admittedly I gave up squash when I was 40, catamarans in my 50s and skiing in my 60s, but I can still cycle 500 km in just over a week on holiday with little preparation and enjoy the good things in life and do physically challenging jobs daily eg I chop all the logs for our 3 stoves which is a hell of a lot of logs.
Compare this to the 1960s when I was a teenager. Philosan for the over 40s, many dead from cancer, heart attack or stroke in their 50s, knackered by your 60s.
We are so much luckier these days when we reach 60 if we are still fit.
I'll be skiing again next Spring at 82.
I'm impressed. Aren't you scared of falling? I'm not really happy until I have had a big wipeout and both skis have come off. That hadn't happened for a few years and then I had a trivial fall and broke my ribs, although nothing serious. I did tend to like skiing challenging runs rather than blues though which made it more of a reason to stop. I do miss it a lot.
I fall occasionally. I find it difficult to get back up unless I'm on a steep slope. But people stop and pull me up and push me off.
Any similarly aged friends who board? Wondering if I'm going to have to learn to ski eventually.
"Eyebrows are being raised at the fact that 120 out of 121 MPs voted in the penultimate round of the leadership race. It’s so close that one out of Leader Rishi Sunak and Chairman Richard Fuller must have voted, which they usually wouldn’t…
Tory Chairman Fuller told Christopher Hope that he wouldn’t be voting, leading Hope to conclude that “Rishi has definitely voted.” However, despite Fuller’s promise, a campaign source tells Guido that they saw Fuller voting and “suspects he was backing Kemi.” Bob Blackman won’t be pleased – Guido makes no comment – but the candidates’ spin teams are furiously speculating about the secret ballot. With 24 hours to go, the race is getting more and more heated…
UPDATE: A Rishi source tells Guido: “Rishi didn’t vote. He has maintained neutrality and hasn’t voted in any of the parliamentary rounds.” Must have been Fuller then…"
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
See the NYTimes poll for Florida - it's Trump +13
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
I think it's an outlier. The average is about 5% and Florida is in turmoil, one way or another, so anything could happen.
I have said for a long time that Cleverly is the Tories' best option. It seems very, very obvious to me. So what is the case against him? There must be one.
He's not the brightest.
He'll be a centrist plodder when they need to roll the dice is a case against him I guess.
Although I can tell you for a fact that Labour want Badenoch. But who knows who the best choice is. Whoever gets it could surprise in either direction and the next GE is ages away.
I'm torn between Badenoch and Cleverly. Cleverly is on paper the best candidate (affable, non-alienating) - he will get a hearing, but it might be a hearing which concludes "Thanks, but still no." Badenoch could be awful (is she a capable manager/administrator/people handler? Maybe she is, but I've not seen much to convince me) or could be brilliant (in a reaches-the-parts-other-Tories-don't-reach way). Both seem to me preferable to Jenrick.
Badenoch is as mad as Truss and also seems to be heading down the ultra libertarian line while being obsessively anti woke.
Cleverly is Rishi 2 with less energy and drive, so it is Jenrick for me now, at least he is offering something different and with vigour
It is my ardent prayer that for the sake of the conservative party that Jenrick is nowhere near the leadership
Maybe but at the moment I have a vote as a party member and you don't, if Jenrick gets through tomorrow
Yes but I want a conservative party that can win power, not an imitation of Reform
Jenrick would be the worst possible choice
Badenoch would be the worst choice actually, polling worst of the final 3 v Starmer with More in Common amongst 2019 Conservative voters
As always HYUFD, you're good with the polling evidence. But I'd suggest there's a massive don't know factor with this one. None of these four are well known with 2019 voters, and there's massive scope to change minds, for better or worse.
I think Badenoch will win the contest, and has a good chance of becoming PM at the next general election.
50,000 civil servants have only 4 1/2 years before she sends them to chokey.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
See the NYTimes poll for Florida - it's Trump +13
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
I think it's an outlier. The average is about 5% and Florida is in turmoil, one way or another, so anything could happen.
How do you even focus on running an election if it gets as bad as some say there?
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
I fear the polls are underestimating Trump's ability to connect with just the voters who will swing those swing states.
Lots of hopium around Harris; but her position seems to be drifting down. Slowly, admittedly. But I'm not sure she is up enough where it matters.
"Eyebrows are being raised at the fact that 120 out of 121 MPs voted in the penultimate round of the leadership race. It’s so close that one out of Leader Rishi Sunak and Chairman Richard Fuller must have voted, which they usually wouldn’t…
Tory Chairman Fuller told Christopher Hope that he wouldn’t be voting, leading Hope to conclude that “Rishi has definitely voted.” However, despite Fuller’s promise, a campaign source tells Guido that they saw Fuller voting and “suspects he was backing Kemi.” Bob Blackman won’t be pleased – Guido makes no comment – but the candidates’ spin teams are furiously speculating about the secret ballot. With 24 hours to go, the race is getting more and more heated…
UPDATE: A Rishi source tells Guido: “Rishi didn’t vote. He has maintained neutrality and hasn’t voted in any of the parliamentary rounds.” Must have been Fuller then…"
"Eyebrows are being raised at the fact that 120 out of 121 MPs voted in the penultimate round of the leadership race. It’s so close that one out of Leader Rishi Sunak and Chairman Richard Fuller must have voted, which they usually wouldn’t…
Tory Chairman Fuller told Christopher Hope that he wouldn’t be voting, leading Hope to conclude that “Rishi has definitely voted.” However, despite Fuller’s promise, a campaign source tells Guido that they saw Fuller voting and “suspects he was backing Kemi.” Bob Blackman won’t be pleased – Guido makes no comment – but the candidates’ spin teams are furiously speculating about the secret ballot. With 24 hours to go, the race is getting more and more heated…
UPDATE: A Rishi source tells Guido: “Rishi didn’t vote. He has maintained neutrality and hasn’t voted in any of the parliamentary rounds.” Must have been Fuller then…"
I don’t care if I look like a pathetic PB centrist dad with my stupid Garmin smartwatch
I just want to die later rather than earlier, and it seems that these might help
Genuinely surprised to read this.
Given all the booze and drugs you've done, I always kind of thought you took the "live well, die young" mentality?
I didn’t expect to be enjoying myself quite this much at this later stage. Lots of travel. Good friends. Still a decent income. Fascinating job. Get on with my kids (also worry about them - and they probably need me to hang about). Its a pretty good package
But it doesn’t just need me alive it needs me relatively fit and healthy. Think these watches might help
It is amazing what we can do these days at an older age if healthy. I am 70 in a few weeks. Admittedly I gave up squash when I was 40, catamarans in my 50s and skiing in my 60s, but I can still cycle 500 km in just over a week on holiday with little preparation and enjoy the good things in life and do physically challenging jobs daily eg I chop all the logs for our 3 stoves which is a hell of a lot of logs.
Compare this to the 1960s when I was a teenager. Philosan for the over 40s, many dead from cancer, heart attack or stroke in their 50s, knackered by your 60s.
We are so much luckier these days when we reach 60 if we are still fit.
I'll be skiing again next Spring at 82.
I'm impressed. Aren't you scared of falling? I'm not really happy until I have had a big wipeout and both skis have come off. That hadn't happened for a few years and then I had a trivial fall and broke my ribs, although nothing serious. I did tend to like skiing challenging runs rather than blues though which made it more of a reason to stop. I do miss it a lot.
I fall occasionally. I find it difficult to get back up unless I'm on a steep slope. But people stop and pull me up and push me off.
Any similarly aged friends who board? Wondering if I'm going to have to learn to ski eventually.
I think boarding is for youngsters. Lots of bending and flexing. And you're on your knees or bum a lot of the time.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
I fear the polls are underestimating Trump's ability to connect with just the voters who will swing those swing states.
Lots of hopium around Harris; but her position seems to be drifting down. Slowly, admittedly. But I'm not sure she is up enough where it matters.
The polling averages from 538 and Nate Silver are almost unchanged in the last month, and are almost exactly at the tipping point level: i.e. they point right now to a very finely balanced outcome.
With that said average polling errors are about 2.5%. And if it's towards Trump, he's won comfortably; and if it's towards Harris, she has.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
I fear the polls are underestimating Trump's ability to connect with just the voters who will swing those swing states.
Lots of hopium around Harris; but her position seems to be drifting down. Slowly, admittedly. But I'm not sure she is up enough where it matters.
IIRC Trump is still bossing it with non-college educated white people, and is doing better with black voters than last time. Not sure about hispanic voters (not that they are are single bloc).
Margins are so tight that the EC outcomes could look very comfortable one way or another with tiny swings.
The language here possibly a bit OTT for a politics prof, but he has a point, I reckon.
The truth is that everyday day life in Britain is utterly horrible for most people. You can't see a doctor, find a dentist, take a train or even get on a bus. Until that changes, we will just see rotation after rotation in our politics as voters search for an answer.
It feels broken because a lot of it is broken, or at best extremely tatty. It's the logical endpoint of things we've voted for (with our wallets as well as our ballots) for decades, but we're not going to acknowledge that. But until we do, we will collectively keep looking for that One Weird Trick that They Don't Want Us To Know.
Whatever the answer is, it ain't going to be easy or quick.
It's nonsense though. Today I saw a doctor at the drop of a hat. Four weeks ago I needed emergency dental work which I was able to get, along with two follow up appointments. Oh, and I got the tram there without incident. My kids all go to totally acceptable state schools
The story we are told is that nothing works. And indeed I listen to the story, and sometimes believing the story, I don't even try (to, for example, see a doctor). But when I'm forced to use the system, mostly, it works. I accept there are many examples of people for whom it doesn't. But the norm is a working system.
There are far worse fates than being alive today, in a rich world democracy.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
I fear the polls are underestimating Trump's ability to connect with just the voters who will swing those swing states.
Lots of hopium around Harris; but her position seems to be drifting down. Slowly, admittedly. But I'm not sure she is up enough where it matters.
I think differential turnout will determine the result - not connecting with swing voters.
"Eyebrows are being raised at the fact that 120 out of 121 MPs voted in the penultimate round of the leadership race. It’s so close that one out of Leader Rishi Sunak and Chairman Richard Fuller must have voted, which they usually wouldn’t…
Tory Chairman Fuller told Christopher Hope that he wouldn’t be voting, leading Hope to conclude that “Rishi has definitely voted.” However, despite Fuller’s promise, a campaign source tells Guido that they saw Fuller voting and “suspects he was backing Kemi.” Bob Blackman won’t be pleased – Guido makes no comment – but the candidates’ spin teams are furiously speculating about the secret ballot. With 24 hours to go, the race is getting more and more heated…
UPDATE: A Rishi source tells Guido: “Rishi didn’t vote. He has maintained neutrality and hasn’t voted in any of the parliamentary rounds.” Must have been Fuller then…"
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
See the NYTimes poll for Florida - it's Trump +13
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
I wonder. If Trump were to lose very badly, would it help to kill Trump-ism, or is the Republican Party unsalvageable?
Things have gotten so bitter, so odious, with so many boundaries of previously acceptable behaviour pushed back, that I'm not sure a bad loss would kill it.
It would probably help, though a more likely scenario is that Trump outperforms in some areas - for instance the wannabee Trumps like Lake likely to lose badly in Arizona, whilst there's a good chance he wins it. Now, that might lead them to think trying to be like Trump whilst not being Trump doesn't work, or they may triple down to attempt to be even more like Trump.
In a normal world, electoral loss would be taken as a signal that change was needed if the electorate was to vote for you.
In Trump world, electoral loss means you were cheated. Personally, I am not bothered by Trumpian politics, but I am extremely disturbed by the erosion of democratic norms.
This analysis might obscure what is really going on.
It used to be considered a democratic norm that a people had a right to self-determination through free elections, but in the modern age the idea of 'a people' has been problematised, which in itself undermines this conception of democracy.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
I fear the polls are underestimating Trump's ability to connect with just the voters who will swing those swing states.
Lots of hopium around Harris; but her position seems to be drifting down. Slowly, admittedly. But I'm not sure she is up enough where it matters.
It all comes down to Pennsylvania and North Carolina in my view, Trump must win both, Harris one
I have said for a long time that Cleverly is the Tories' best option. It seems very, very obvious to me. So what is the case against him? There must be one.
He's not the brightest.
He'll be a centrist plodder when they need to roll the dice is a case against him I guess.
Although I can tell you for a fact that Labour want Badenoch. But who knows who the best choice is. Whoever gets it could surprise in either direction and the next GE is ages away.
I'm torn between Badenoch and Cleverly. Cleverly is on paper the best candidate (affable, non-alienating) - he will get a hearing, but it might be a hearing which concludes "Thanks, but still no." Badenoch could be awful (is she a capable manager/administrator/people handler? Maybe she is, but I've not seen much to convince me) or could be brilliant (in a reaches-the-parts-other-Tories-don't-reach way). Both seem to me preferable to Jenrick.
Badenoch is as mad as Truss and also seems to be heading down the ultra libertarian line while being obsessively anti woke.
Cleverly is Rishi 2 with less energy and drive, so it is Jenrick for me now, at least he is offering something different and with vigour
It is my ardent prayer that for the sake of the conservative party that Jenrick is nowhere near the leadership
Maybe but at the moment I have a vote as a party member and you don't, if Jenrick gets through tomorrow
Yes but I want a conservative party that can win power, not an imitation of Reform
Jenrick would be the worst possible choice
Badenoch would be the worst choice actually, polling worst of the final 3 v Starmer with More in Common amongst 2019 Conservative voters
As always HYUFD, you're good with the polling evidence. But I'd suggest there's a massive don't know factor with this one. None of these four are well known with 2019 voters, and there's massive scope to change minds, for better or worse.
I think Badenoch will win the contest, and has a good chance of becoming PM at the next general election.
I think she does out tomorrow and if she doesn't has little chance of becoming PM, we will see
"Eyebrows are being raised at the fact that 120 out of 121 MPs voted in the penultimate round of the leadership race. It’s so close that one out of Leader Rishi Sunak and Chairman Richard Fuller must have voted, which they usually wouldn’t…
Tory Chairman Fuller told Christopher Hope that he wouldn’t be voting, leading Hope to conclude that “Rishi has definitely voted.” However, despite Fuller’s promise, a campaign source tells Guido that they saw Fuller voting and “suspects he was backing Kemi.” Bob Blackman won’t be pleased – Guido makes no comment – but the candidates’ spin teams are furiously speculating about the secret ballot. With 24 hours to go, the race is getting more and more heated…
UPDATE: A Rishi source tells Guido: “Rishi didn’t vote. He has maintained neutrality and hasn’t voted in any of the parliamentary rounds.” Must have been Fuller then…"
Here's the 538 national polling average. It's continued no change:
There are two questions that matter for me.
Firstly, have pollsters adjusted their weightings and samplings following 2016 and 2020, so as to avoid the undersampling of less educated white voters?
Secondly, will abortion ballot propositions drive turnout for young voters? Wherever there have been abortion ballot propositions, turnouts have been way higher than expected, normally driven by the young.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
See the NYTimes poll for Florida - it's Trump +13
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
I wonder. If Trump were to lose very badly, would it help to kill Trump-ism, or is the Republican Party unsalvageable?
Trump won't lose badly, he will either win or lose only narrowly so the populist right likely keeps control of the GOP
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
I fear the polls are underestimating Trump's ability to connect with just the voters who will swing those swing states.
Lots of hopium around Harris; but her position seems to be drifting down. Slowly, admittedly. But I'm not sure she is up enough where it matters.
IIRC Trump is still bossing it with non-college educated white people, and is doing better with black voters than last time. Not sure about hispanic voters (not that they are are single bloc).
Margins are so tight that the EC outcomes could look very comfortable one way or another with tiny swings.
That's why I think the more extreme ranges of EC votes are good value.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
See the NYTimes poll for Florida - it's Trump +13
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
I wonder. If Trump were to lose very badly, would it help to kill Trump-ism, or is the Republican Party unsalvageable?
Things have gotten so bitter, so odious, with so many boundaries of previously acceptable behaviour pushed back, that I'm not sure a bad loss would kill it.
It would probably help, though a more likely scenario is that Trump outperforms in some areas - for instance the wannabee Trumps like Lake likely to lose badly in Arizona, whilst there's a good chance he wins it. Now, that might lead them to think trying to be like Trump whilst not being Trump doesn't work, or they may triple down to attempt to be even more like Trump.
In a normal world, electoral loss would be taken as a signal that change was needed if the electorate was to vote for you.
In Trump world, electoral loss means you were cheated. Personally, I am not bothered by Trumpian politics, but I am extremely disturbed by the erosion of democratic norms.
This analysis might obscure what is really going on.
It used to be considered a democratic norm that a people had a right to self-determination through free elections, but in the modern age the idea of 'a people' has been problematised, which in itself undermines this conception of democracy.
I'm fairly sure I heard similar arguments about allowing black people to vote.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
I fear the polls are underestimating Trump's ability to connect with just the voters who will swing those swing states.
Lots of hopium around Harris; but her position seems to be drifting down. Slowly, admittedly. But I'm not sure she is up enough where it matters.
IIRC Trump is still bossing it with non-college educated white people, and is doing better with black voters than last time. Not sure about hispanic voters (not that they are are single bloc).
Margins are so tight that the EC outcomes could look very comfortable one way or another with tiny swings.
That's why I think the more extreme ranges of EC votes are good value.
Agreed: I would suggest buying 330+ for both candidates.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
See the NYTimes poll for Florida - it's Trump +13
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
I wonder. If Trump were to lose very badly, would it help to kill Trump-ism, or is the Republican Party unsalvageable?
Things have gotten so bitter, so odious, with so many boundaries of previously acceptable behaviour pushed back, that I'm not sure a bad loss would kill it.
It would probably help, though a more likely scenario is that Trump outperforms in some areas - for instance the wannabee Trumps like Lake likely to lose badly in Arizona, whilst there's a good chance he wins it. Now, that might lead them to think trying to be like Trump whilst not being Trump doesn't work, or they may triple down to attempt to be even more like Trump.
In a normal world, electoral loss would be taken as a signal that change was needed if the electorate was to vote for you.
In Trump world, electoral loss means you were cheated. Personally, I am not bothered by Trumpian politics, but I am extremely disturbed by the erosion of democratic norms.
This analysis might obscure what is really going on.
It used to be considered a democratic norm that a people had a right to self-determination through free elections, but in the modern age the idea of 'a people' has been problematised, which in itself undermines this conception of democracy.
I'm fairly sure I heard similar arguments about allowing black people to vote.
And both supporters and opponents of extending the franchise recognised that it was a constitutional question.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
See the NYTimes poll for Florida - it's Trump +13
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
I wonder. If Trump were to lose very badly, would it help to kill Trump-ism, or is the Republican Party unsalvageable?
Things have gotten so bitter, so odious, with so many boundaries of previously acceptable behaviour pushed back, that I'm not sure a bad loss would kill it.
It would probably help, though a more likely scenario is that Trump outperforms in some areas - for instance the wannabee Trumps like Lake likely to lose badly in Arizona, whilst there's a good chance he wins it. Now, that might lead them to think trying to be like Trump whilst not being Trump doesn't work, or they may triple down to attempt to be even more like Trump.
In a normal world, electoral loss would be taken as a signal that change was needed if the electorate was to vote for you.
In Trump world, electoral loss means you were cheated. Personally, I am not bothered by Trumpian politics, but I am extremely disturbed by the erosion of democratic norms.
This analysis might obscure what is really going on.
It used to be considered a democratic norm that a people had a right to self-determination through free elections, but in the modern age the idea of 'a people' has been problematised, which in itself undermines this conception of democracy.
I'm fairly sure I heard similar arguments about allowing black people to vote.
And both supporters and opponents of extending the franchise recognised that it was a constitutional question.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
See the NYTimes poll for Florida - it's Trump +13
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
I wonder. If Trump were to lose very badly, would it help to kill Trump-ism, or is the Republican Party unsalvageable?
Things have gotten so bitter, so odious, with so many boundaries of previously acceptable behaviour pushed back, that I'm not sure a bad loss would kill it.
It would probably help, though a more likely scenario is that Trump outperforms in some areas - for instance the wannabee Trumps like Lake likely to lose badly in Arizona, whilst there's a good chance he wins it. Now, that might lead them to think trying to be like Trump whilst not being Trump doesn't work, or they may triple down to attempt to be even more like Trump.
In a normal world, electoral loss would be taken as a signal that change was needed if the electorate was to vote for you.
In Trump world, electoral loss means you were cheated. Personally, I am not bothered by Trumpian politics, but I am extremely disturbed by the erosion of democratic norms.
This analysis might obscure what is really going on.
It used to be considered a democratic norm that a people had a right to self-determination through free elections, but in the modern age the idea of 'a people' has been problematised, which in itself undermines this conception of democracy.
I'm fairly sure I heard similar arguments about allowing black people to vote.
And both supporters and opponents of extending the franchise recognised that it was a constitutional question.
Harris needs to bank as many early votes as possible before Israel causes a spike in global oil prices .
One can’t under estimate the impact of pump prices going up in the run upto Election Day . This will help Trump and harm Harris improving polling numbers on the economy .
Harris is doing better than expected in North Carolina but not making as much progress as hoped in Pennsylvania, with the result that both are on a knife-edge, whereas she'd probably prefer to be ahead in PA more comfortably.
I don’t care if I look like a pathetic PB centrist dad with my stupid Garmin smartwatch
I just want to die later rather than earlier, and it seems that these might help
Genuinely surprised to read this.
Given all the booze and drugs you've done, I always kind of thought you took the "live well, die young" mentality?
I didn’t expect to be enjoying myself quite this much at this later stage. Lots of travel. Good friends. Still a decent income. Fascinating job. Get on with my kids (also worry about them - and they probably need me to hang about). Its a pretty good package
But it doesn’t just need me alive it needs me relatively fit and healthy. Think these watches might help
It is amazing what we can do these days at an older age if healthy. I am 70 in a few weeks. Admittedly I gave up squash when I was 40, catamarans in my 50s and skiing in my 60s, but I can still cycle 500 km in just over a week on holiday with little preparation and enjoy the good things in life and do physically challenging jobs daily eg I chop all the logs for our 3 stoves which is a hell of a lot of logs.
Compare this to the 1960s when I was a teenager. Philosan for the over 40s, many dead from cancer, heart attack or stroke in their 50s, knackered by your 60s.
We are so much luckier these days when we reach 60 if we are still fit.
I'll be skiing again next Spring at 82.
I'm impressed. Aren't you scared of falling? I'm not really happy until I have had a big wipeout and both skis have come off. That hadn't happened for a few years and then I had a trivial fall and broke my ribs, although nothing serious. I did tend to like skiing challenging runs rather than blues though which made it more of a reason to stop. I do miss it a lot.
I fall occasionally. I find it difficult to get back up unless I'm on a steep slope. But people stop and pull me up and push me off.
Any similarly aged friends who board? Wondering if I'm going to have to learn to ski eventually.
I think boarding is for youngsters. Lots of bending and flexing. And you're on your knees or bum a lot of the time.
I'm not letting my youngsters board, I'd be shown up I think the big risk is only having one foot clipped in on and off the lifts.
"The "Blob" will ensure Cleverly is elected, thereby guaranteeing there is no actual real opposition. TTK can then get on his task of destroying what's left of our nation unobstructed."
BREAKING: Channel 4 announces plans for America Decides: US Election Results on Nov 5th hosted by @krishgm & @maitlis with @mattfrei & @theJeremyVine on data - exclusive guests inc @BorisJohnson & Stormy Daniels & a partnership with CNN to bring our viewers comprehensive coverage
Like him releasing his bookie-wookie to overshadow the Tory leadership contest, Johnson is desperate to remain relevant. He really does think he is Churchill in the wilderness.
BREAKING: Channel 4 announces plans for America Decides: US Election Results on Nov 5th hosted by @krishgm & @maitlis with @mattfrei & @theJeremyVine on data - exclusive guests inc @BorisJohnson & Stormy Daniels & a partnership with CNN to bring our viewers comprehensive coverage
Like him releasing his bookie-wookie to overshadow the Tory leadership contest, Johnson is desperate to remain relevant. He really does think he is Churchill in the wilderness.
More like Fatty Arbuckle I'd say.
Boris Johnson is like Fatty Arbuckle, you say? A silent film actor known for his enormous, erm, Johnson.
Harris is doing better than expected in North Carolina but not making as much progress as hoped in Pennsylvania, with the result that both are on a knife-edge, whereas she'd probably prefer to be ahead in PA more comfortably.
If Trump wins, there will be plenty of time for Kamala to regret her VP choice. Whether PA governor Josh Shapiro could have delivered his home state...
I have said for a long time that Cleverly is the Tories' best option. It seems very, very obvious to me. So what is the case against him? There must be one.
He's not the brightest.
He'll be a centrist plodder when they need to roll the dice is a case against him I guess.
Although I can tell you for a fact that Labour want Badenoch. But who knows who the best choice is. Whoever gets it could surprise in either direction and the next GE is ages away.
I'm torn between Badenoch and Cleverly. Cleverly is on paper the best candidate (affable, non-alienating) - he will get a hearing, but it might be a hearing which concludes "Thanks, but still no." Badenoch could be awful (is she a capable manager/administrator/people handler? Maybe she is, but I've not seen much to convince me) or could be brilliant (in a reaches-the-parts-other-Tories-don't-reach way). Both seem to me preferable to Jenrick.
Badenoch is as mad as Truss and also seems to be heading down the ultra libertarian line while being obsessively anti woke.
Cleverly is Rishi 2 with less energy and drive, so it is Jenrick for me now, at least he is offering something different and with vigour
It is my ardent prayer that for the sake of the conservative party that Jenrick is nowhere near the leadership
Maybe but at the moment I have a vote as a party member and you don't, if Jenrick gets through tomorrow
Yes but I want a conservative party that can win power, not an imitation of Reform
Jenrick would be the worst possible choice
Badenoch would be the worst choice actually, polling worst of the final 3 v Starmer with More in Common amongst 2019 Conservative voters
As always HYUFD, you're good with the polling evidence. But I'd suggest there's a massive don't know factor with this one. None of these four are well known with 2019 voters, and there's massive scope to change minds, for better or worse.
I think Badenoch will win the contest, and has a good chance of becoming PM at the next general election.
Whoever wins, there is plenty of time to replace them before the election. Only one of the Conservative party's last seven leaders lasted more than three years.
IDS lasted 2 years Michael Howard 2 years David Cameron 11 years Theresa May 3 years Boris Johnson 3 years Liz Truss 7 weeks Rishi Sunak 2 years
Amount UK's richest pay in income tax revealed Sixty of the wealthiest people in the UK collectively contributed more than £3bn a year in income tax https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqlvggr9qz5o
Commiserations to my friend @TomTugendhat. He ran a great campaign and led the debate on security and how we stand tall on the world stage in volatile times. I’m pleased to have increased support and grateful to all of my colleagues who voted for me. This is a very tight race and I’ll continue fighting for every vote. It's also clear from every independent poll and survey, the support from members for my @Renewal2030 campaign is surging.
Farage: "Jenrick tried to be Nigel Farage. I can coach, give him lessons if he wants. But you can't out Farage Farage." (Daily Mail video clip of interview)
Farage seems to want Cleverly as opponent.
That would reduce the need to adjust dog whistle frequency.
I don’t care if I look like a pathetic PB centrist dad with my stupid Garmin smartwatch
I just want to die later rather than earlier, and it seems that these might help
Genuinely surprised to read this.
Given all the booze and drugs you've done, I always kind of thought you took the "live well, die young" mentality?
I didn’t expect to be enjoying myself quite this much at this later stage. Lots of travel. Good friends. Still a decent income. Fascinating job. Get on with my kids (also worry about them - and they probably need me to hang about). Its a pretty good package
But it doesn’t just need me alive it needs me relatively fit and healthy. Think these watches might help
Well they certainly won't harm.
Re age, it struck me recently how unusual I must be in being 64 with both parents alive, D91 and M88. That's a combined 243 years, the three of us.
Can anybody here beat that or get close?
242 on my Mum's death. If I knew there was going to be a competition and it would be that close I would have asked for a bit more effort. My dad died last year at 96
That's an interesting question.
The number for me was 189 on dad's death (asbestosis @ 72, me in my early 40s). If they were both alive now it would still be less than yours.
I don’t care if I look like a pathetic PB centrist dad with my stupid Garmin smartwatch
I just want to die later rather than earlier, and it seems that these might help
Genuinely surprised to read this.
Given all the booze and drugs you've done, I always kind of thought you took the "live well, die young" mentality?
I didn’t expect to be enjoying myself quite this much at this later stage. Lots of travel. Good friends. Still a decent income. Fascinating job. Get on with my kids (also worry about them - and they probably need me to hang about). Its a pretty good package
But it doesn’t just need me alive it needs me relatively fit and healthy. Think these watches might help
It is amazing what we can do these days at an older age if healthy. I am 70 in a few weeks. Admittedly I gave up squash when I was 40, catamarans in my 50s and skiing in my 60s, but I can still cycle 500 km in just over a week on holiday with little preparation and enjoy the good things in life and do physically challenging jobs daily eg I chop all the logs for our 3 stoves which is a hell of a lot of logs.
Compare this to the 1960s when I was a teenager. Philosan for the over 40s, many dead from cancer, heart attack or stroke in their 50s, knackered by your 60s.
We are so much luckier these days when we reach 60 if we are still fit.
I'll be skiing again next Spring at 82.
I have an investor in my business called Meyer. He's 98. (And fully fit and with it. Except his hearing.)
He gave up skiing at 86, when his doctor said to him "Meyer, you're 86 years old. If you fall, you won't be getting up again."
ISTR Apollo 11 astronaut Michael Collins was running a yearly half-marathons well into his eighties.
How many people remain in the forecast path of Milton? Sounds like there might not be much left standing by Thursday. Footage of the highway queues is something else.
My head canon says that Arizona and Michigan will go Harris and Penn will go Trump. Happy to hear counter-argument. 🙂
I think the polls are underestimating differential turnout and that Harris will take all seven swing states giving 319 v 219. She might even get an extra 30 from Florida making 349.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
See the NYTimes poll for Florida - it's Trump +13
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
I wonder. If Trump were to lose very badly, would it help to kill Trump-ism, or is the Republican Party unsalvageable?
Things have gotten so bitter, so odious, with so many boundaries of previously acceptable behaviour pushed back, that I'm not sure a bad loss would kill it.
It would probably help, though a more likely scenario is that Trump outperforms in some areas - for instance the wannabee Trumps like Lake likely to lose badly in Arizona, whilst there's a good chance he wins it. Now, that might lead them to think trying to be like Trump whilst not being Trump doesn't work, or they may triple down to attempt to be even more like Trump.
In a normal world, electoral loss would be taken as a signal that change was needed if the electorate was to vote for you.
In Trump world, electoral loss means you were cheated. Personally, I am not bothered by Trumpian politics, but I am extremely disturbed by the erosion of democratic norms.
This analysis might obscure what is really going on.
It used to be considered a democratic norm that a people had a right to self-determination through free elections, but in the modern age the idea of 'a people' has been problematised, which in itself undermines this conception of democracy.
I'm fairly sure I heard similar arguments about allowing black people to vote.
And both supporters and opponents of extending the franchise recognised that it was a constitutional question.
Restricting the franchise, constitutionally or otherwise, has been the Republican brand in the modern era.
There are hundreds of stories like this, and it’s almost always them.
Biennial reminder that Ohio Republicans have limited early voting to just one location per county regardless of population size.
The language here possibly a bit OTT for a politics prof, but he has a point, I reckon.
The truth is that everyday day life in Britain is utterly horrible for most people. You can't see a doctor, find a dentist, take a train or even get on a bus. Until that changes, we will just see rotation after rotation in our politics as voters search for an answer.
It feels broken because a lot of it is broken, or at best extremely tatty. It's the logical endpoint of things we've voted for (with our wallets as well as our ballots) for decades, but we're not going to acknowledge that. But until we do, we will collectively keep looking for that One Weird Trick that They Don't Want Us To Know.
Whatever the answer is, it ain't going to be easy or quick.
It's nonsense though. Today I saw a doctor at the drop of a hat. Four weeks ago I needed emergency dental work which I was able to get, along with two follow up appointments. Oh, and I got the tram there without incident. My kids all go to totally acceptable state schools
The story we are told is that nothing works. And indeed I listen to the story, and sometimes believing the story, I don't even try (to, for example, see a doctor). But when I'm forced to use the system, mostly, it works. I accept there are many examples of people for whom it doesn't. But the norm is a working system.
Maybe the whingers should go and take a trip to eastern Ukraine or the middle east. They need to get a bit of perspective. "The truth is that everyday day life in Britain is utterly horrible for most people." What a piece of hyperbolic bollox. It is clearly a hard life being a mollycoddled Professor.
Well quite. Try telling the recent arrivals from Ukraine and Hong Kong that the UK just doesn’t work, and they’ll tell you exactly what they think.
Kemi’s biggest problem when it comes to the membership outside the south east, Is that she’s seen as DougieSmith’s protege and that is likely fatal for her chances in the members ballot!
@NadineDorries 'Kemi is the long term protege of Gove and Dougie Smith. How does her network work?
Francis Maude launched her leadership campaign.
Maude runs a successful political consultancy, his business partner is Nick Boles.
Boles is v close to Gove and was a key player when Gove stabbed Boris in the back in 2016.
Maude is a close ally of Sue Gray, who is also a longstanding close friend of Gove.
Maude heaped effusive praise upon Gray when it was announced she had left the civil service and jumped to Labour.
He was also the hugest fan of the coalition government and was quick to publicly defend Dougie Smith, when it was disclosed that Smith ran the fever sex parties
Dougie Smith is a long standing close friend of Kemi and her husband and is closer to Gove than most. He is still on the CCHQ payroll.
Nick Boles works in Reeves office. Gray worked in Starmer’s. Now Maude wishes you to vote for Kemi to be leader of the opposition.
If you have contacts at the heart of every administration in Westminster, would that benefit your political advisory business?
Why do Gove (where he goes, Cummings goes too) Dougie Smith, Francis Maude and others want Kemi who would cross the road to pick a fight and cannot handle a media round, to be leader.
Because she’s the only candidate they have links to.
How? Kemi worked at the Spectator where Cummings wife worked and where Gove is now editor. Where James Forsyth worked who introduced Sunak to Dougie.
I asked someone who was very close to Sunak in No10, why he tolerated CCHQ paying Dougie when Dougie turned on him and the answer was ‘because Sunak is *ucking terrified of him,they all are.’
It won’t be just Kemi MPs will be voting for if she is put through to the final 2.
Harris is doing better than expected in North Carolina but not making as much progress as hoped in Pennsylvania, with the result that both are on a knife-edge, whereas she'd probably prefer to be ahead in PA more comfortably.
If Trump wins, there will be plenty of time for Kamala to regret her VP choice. Whether PA governor Josh Shapiro could have delivered his home state...
...Is not knowable. Only HYUFD assumes it axiomatically.
Comments
'Kemi is the long term protege of Gove and Dougie Smith. How does her network work?
Francis Maude launched her leadership campaign.
Maude runs a successful political consultancy, his business partner is Nick Boles.
Boles is v close to Gove and was a key player when Gove stabbed Boris in the back in 2016.
Maude is a close ally of Sue Gray, who is
also a longstanding close friend of Gove.
Maude heaped effusive praise upon Gray when it was announced she had left the civil service and jumped to Labour.
He was also the hugest fan of the coalition government and was quick to publicly defend Dougie Smith, when it was disclosed that Smith ran the fever sex parties
Dougie Smith is a long standing close friend of Kemi and her husband and is closer to Gove than most. He is still on the CCHQ payroll.
Nick Boles works in Reeves office.
Gray worked in Starmer’s.
Now Maude wishes you to vote for Kemi to be leader of the opposition.
If you have contacts at the heart of every administration in Westminster, would that benefit your political advisory business?
Why do Gove (where he goes, Cummings goes too) Dougie Smith, Francis Maude and others want Kemi who would cross the road to pick a fight and cannot handle a media round, to be leader.
Because she’s the only candidate they have links to.
How?
Kemi worked at the Spectator where Cummings wife worked and where Gove is now editor. Where James Forsyth worked who introduced Sunak to Dougie.
I asked someone who was very close to Sunak in No10, why he tolerated CCHQ paying Dougie when Dougie turned on him and the answer was ‘because Sunak is *ucking terrified of him,they all are.’
It won’t be just Kemi MPs will be voting for if she is put through to the final 2.
Time to put an end to the control and get back to being a professional organisation.'
https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1843701514809856459
PS I realised my post about your combined ages post was nonsense re hoping you were young. Your current age is irrelevant. Sorry having brain failure.
The story we are told is that nothing works. And indeed I listen to the story, and sometimes believing the story, I don't even try (to, for example, see a doctor). But when I'm forced to use the system, mostly, it works.
I accept there are many examples of people for whom it doesn't. But the norm is a working system.
I used to know a guy who'd carded the fibre for asbestos textiles, back in the early seventies. The factory used to be ankle deep in the dust.
Andy Rooney: "Who's black??"
Helen Whately, Tory MP.
LOL
https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1739497564955926875
He's done several threads along these lines.
NB 330-349 EVs for Harris is 13.5 on Betfair.
No idea why Johnson is in that list. Some kind of typo?
Louisa Compton
@louisa_compton
BREAKING: Channel 4 announces plans for America Decides: US Election Results on Nov 5th hosted by @krishgm
& @maitlis with @mattfrei & @theJeremyVine on data - exclusive guests inc @BorisJohnson
& Stormy Daniels & a partnership with CNN to bring our viewers comprehensive coverage
https://x.com/louisa_compton/status/1843599756410671188
Although the shirt not tucking was a source of fun. Margie Kensit, Patsy Kensit mum, was my (and others) secretary in the 80s. She was lovely and bonkers and took a great deal of interest in my love life, although never offered to introduce me to her daughter sadly. Anyway she spent a lot of time ensuring my shoes were clean and my shirt tucked in.
https://putthison.com/real-people-building-a-holistic-wardrobe/
If you can find someone affordable who can do alterations to sleeve or trouser lengths, all the better.
In part it was because braces generally were worn under a waistcoat, and these became unfashionable post war.
And yes, "horrible" is OTT. But "grindingly mediocre" takes more characters. Every time one looks round, another thing that makes our common life agreeable has fallen off or over. (Latest here is that the local council can't afford a switch-on event for Christmas lights.)
And the story of the last decade or so has been voters scrabbling around for someone to flick a switch and make it better. It was the appeal of Brexit, Corbyn, Johnson and Truss. Sunak wasn't above it, either.
Boris Johnson is to Churchill what ****** is to *******
Now, which politicians generally wear waistcoats, so I know which to vote for?
(I also wear broad brimmed hats, so really braces seem like an inevitable addition to my outfit at some point).
Even if we the public are often responsible by what we reward politicians for, or punish them for.
Its not the endpoint of taxing too little as taxes are at a record high.
Yet still people squeal like spoilt brats at losing the winter fuel allowance.
Possible it's wrong, but Siena are a very decent pollster.
He gave up skiing at 86, when his doctor said to him "Meyer, you're 86 years old. If you fall, you won't be getting up again."
It would probably help, though a more likely scenario is that Trump outperforms in some areas - for instance the wannabee Trumps like Lake likely to lose badly in Arizona, whilst there's a good chance he wins it. Now, that might lead them to think trying to be like Trump whilst not being Trump doesn't work, or they may triple down to attempt to be even more like Trump.
In Trump world, electoral loss means you were cheated. Personally, I am not bothered by Trumpian politics, but I am extremely disturbed by the erosion of democratic norms.
Tory Chairman Fuller told Christopher Hope that he wouldn’t be voting, leading Hope to conclude that “Rishi has definitely voted.” However, despite Fuller’s promise, a campaign source tells Guido that they saw Fuller voting and “suspects he was backing Kemi.” Bob Blackman won’t be pleased – Guido makes no comment – but the candidates’ spin teams are furiously speculating about the secret ballot. With 24 hours to go, the race is getting more and more heated…
UPDATE: A Rishi source tells Guido: “Rishi didn’t vote. He has maintained neutrality and hasn’t voted in any of the parliamentary rounds.” Must have been Fuller then…"
https://order-order.com/2024/10/08/fingers-pointed-at-sunak-and-fuller-for-voting-in-heated-leadership-race/
Lots of hopium around Harris; but her position seems to be drifting down. Slowly, admittedly. But I'm not sure she is up enough where it matters.
With that said average polling errors are about 2.5%. And if it's towards Trump, he's won comfortably; and if it's towards Harris, she has.
Margins are so tight that the EC outcomes could look very comfortable one way or another with tiny swings.
We see those fates, in the news.
It used to be considered a democratic norm that a people had a right to self-determination through free elections, but in the modern age the idea of 'a people' has been problematised, which in itself undermines this conception of democracy.
https://nitter.poast.org/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155#m
Here's the 538 national polling average. It's continued no change:
There are two questions that matter for me.
Firstly, have pollsters adjusted their weightings and samplings following 2016 and 2020, so as to avoid the undersampling of less educated white voters?
Secondly, will abortion ballot propositions drive turnout for young voters? Wherever there have been abortion ballot propositions, turnouts have been way higher than expected, normally driven by the young.
One can’t under estimate the impact of pump prices going up in the run upto Election Day . This will help Trump and harm Harris improving polling numbers on the economy .
I think the big risk is only having one foot clipped in on and off the lifts.
"The "Blob" will ensure Cleverly is elected, thereby guaranteeing there is no actual real opposition. TTK can then get on his task of destroying what's left of our nation unobstructed."
https://order-order.com/2024/10/08/scrap-between-kemi-and-jenrick-to-get-to-final-two/
TikTok called the claims misleading and said it was "proud of and remain deeply committed to the work we've done to protect teens"."
https://news.sky.com/story/tiktok-sued-by-13-us-states-for-harming-young-peoples-mental-health-13230453
IDS lasted 2 years
Michael Howard 2 years
David Cameron 11 years
Theresa May 3 years
Boris Johnson 3 years
Liz Truss 7 weeks
Rishi Sunak 2 years
Sixty of the wealthiest people in the UK collectively contributed more than £3bn a year in income tax
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqlvggr9qz5o
@KemiBadenoch
Commiserations to my friend @TomTugendhat. He ran a great campaign and led the debate on security and how we stand tall on the world stage in volatile times. I’m pleased to have increased support and grateful to all of my colleagues who voted for me. This is a very tight race and I’ll continue fighting for every vote. It's also clear from every independent poll and survey, the support from members for my @Renewal2030 campaign is surging.
3:58 PM · Oct 8, 2024
83.4K Views"
https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1843667407392387218
The number for me was 189 on dad's death (asbestosis @ 72, me in my early 40s). If they were both alive now it would still be less than yours.
There are hundreds of stories like this, and it’s almost always them.
Biennial reminder that Ohio Republicans have limited early voting to just one location per county regardless of population size.
That means 1.3 million people in Columbus' Franklin County (heavily Dem) & 12,000 people in rural Vinton County (heavily GOP) each get one location
https://x.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1843743002566832132
Only HYUFD assumes it axiomatically.