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Jenrick slips to third place with punters today and likely third place with MPs tomorrow

SystemSystem Posts: 12,068
edited October 8 in General
imageJenrick slips to third place with punters today and likely third place with MPs tomorrow – politicalbetting.com

Blimey. It could be Badenoch and Cleverly going to the members.. pic.twitter.com/1I0XpAybGT

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,731
    I am confused by Jenrick's slump, everybody loves a lawyer.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,228
    Good afternoon from the Aberystwyth to Holyhead train

    Really pleased and hope Cleverly wins
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,731
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am confused by Jenrick's slump, everybody loves a lawyer.

    Oh was that a first?
  • eekeek Posts: 27,671
    edited October 8
    Shall we just say that Jenrick is no Stanley Baldwin

    Clearly if you want to do well in Politics you need to avoid Cambridge Uni..
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,314
    CLEVERLY
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,694
    F*ck it.

    Kemi is 3.9

    I'm topping up. Monte Carlo or bust!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,556
    Badenoch is the only candidate to have added votes in each round. Interesting factoid.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,568
    FPT: feels to me like some Jenrick backers might switch to Kemi in the final ballot, potentially?

    Cleverly may prefer to face Jenrick in the final two, so in theory there could be some vote lending though.

    Fascinating. It feels like a JC v KB contest has just become much more likely.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,694
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am confused by Jenrick's slump, everybody loves a lawyer.

    Other characteristics of the fellow may have weighed in.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,694

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    11m
    It's tricky. I'd guess Tugendhat supporters would prefer Badenoch to Jenrick as leader, but would prefer Cleverly to either & think Cleverly had a better chance against Jenrick with the members.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,556
    numbertwelve said:

    FPT: feels to me like some Jenrick backers might switch to Kemi in the final ballot, potentially?

    Cleverly may prefer to face Jenrick in the final two, so in theory there could be some vote lending though.

    Fascinating. It feels like a JC v KB contest has just become much more likely.

    Not good for team white men, lol.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,694
    The membership want Kemi. Are MPs really going to defy them in the end?

    Letting the membership choose when so few of them and such a narrow sect is bonkers in my opinion, but them's the rules at moment.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,556
    edited October 8
    Did Jenrick blow it with a conference speech that was too right-wing? Didn't watch it myself.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,694
    Andy_JS said:

    Did Jenrick blow it with a conference speech that was too right-wing?

    And pretty crappily delivered if I remember rightly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,040
    rottenborough said:


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    11m
    It's tricky. I'd guess Tugendhat supporters would prefer Badenoch to Jenrick as leader, but would prefer Cleverly to either & think Cleverly had a better chance against Jenrick with the members.

    I've seen this movie before. It doesn't end well.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,572
    edited October 8
    I thought that Jenrick was inevitable for a long time, but losing MP support between rounds is a really bad look.

    One change I would make to the Tory leadership rules would be to say there's no member's ballot if the winner of the final round has the support of more than half the MPs and is at least 20pp ahead of the second-placed candidate.

    It would put a stop to all these shenanigans about the leading candidate lending votes to choose who they face in the member's ballot, which risks making the candidate with the third highest level of support among MPs the leader.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,650
    Glorious news.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,172
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Good afternoon from the Aberystwyth to Holyhead train

    Really pleased and hope Cleverly wins

    Wait - there's a train from Aberystwyth to Holyhead?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,694
    Andy_JS said:

    numbertwelve said:

    FPT: feels to me like some Jenrick backers might switch to Kemi in the final ballot, potentially?

    Cleverly may prefer to face Jenrick in the final two, so in theory there could be some vote lending though.

    Fascinating. It feels like a JC v KB contest has just become much more likely.

    Not good for team white men, lol.
    Nor for Oxbridge.

    For once.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,172
    Always fun in these contests when an MP loses support from one round to the next. Who, and why? People changing their minds or people playing silly buggers?
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 675
    what are the rules if there's a tie break for 2nd?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,228
    Cookie said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Good afternoon from the Aberystwyth to Holyhead train

    Really pleased and hope Cleverly wins

    Wait - there's a train from Aberystwyth to Holyhead?
    Yes with change at Shrewsbury shortly
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,030
    edited October 8
    FPT:
    noneoftheabove said:

    Cookie said:

    FPT:

    noneoftheabove said:

    TOPPING said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    TOPPING said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    This is the catastrophe looming for the UK under Labour

    “One Fifth of All Millionaires To Leave Britain by 2028”

    https://x.com/guidofawkes/status/1843554081672954112?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/07/britain-suffer-biggest-millionaires-exodus-globally-non-dom/

    Labour are chasing away the rich 1%, who pay 30% of our entire tax take. The world has changed and people can work remotely

    Labour are going to run out of money, they will have to tax more and more, driving away MORE rich people - meanwhile poor people keep arriving. We’re in a doom loop

    While there is definitely an exodus of millionaires - I know one or two who have already gone - the big risk is the brain drain of the young and ambitious.

    What's left in broken britain for people other than to be pay pigs for unproductive spongers and boat people? If you're in your 20s, bright, ambitious, you can stay in broken britain and be taxed to the eyeballs while being unable to ever save money to get on the property ladder (and be cheated at every turn if you finally do), or you can bugger off to Dubai, pay 0% tax and like as not avoid the graduate tax aka student loan while you're at it.

    It's not just the millionaires we'll lose over the next five years. It's the young and ambitious who can make more and pay less tax elsewhere.
    It probably won't be long before Rachel Thieves puts in place exchange controls. The basic problem is that Labour does not understand wealth creation. It is a party for the public sector, hence the reason why NHS consultants and senior managers will retire with tax-free pension pots of £2.5M, while wealth generators will have any sale of a business that they have built up taxed, taxed and more taxed!
    If she does anything like the IFS recommendation of setting CGT at income tax rates, the amount of capital flight will be catastrophic, as will the collapse in FDI. There would be no incentive whatsoever to invest in a UK business, and no incentive for anyone of serious means to stay in the country, when there are so many other countries doing their best to encourage capital.
    Unlike @kjh who wants us to know (or is it believe) that he is in the "£3M to £10M range" (lol), I do know people who are leaving or giving it serious consideration. This is the difference between the current public sector obsessed Labour Party and Blair's New Labour, the latter of which understood and encouraged wealth creation. Lord Mandelson needs to advise them to get a grip quick before the economy becomes more and more fucked.
    From my vantage point, in a small country well-known for having no personal income tax nor capital gains tax, with VAT at 5% and Corporation Tax 7%, rents are up around 30% year on year as the place is importing people faster than the many builders can keep up with demand.
    Hi Sandpit. Cut and paste from my other post:

    I did not say people won't leave for better jobs or a better life. However people who are rich who haven't left already (as per the topic) aren't now going to leave because of tax now.
    They really really will
    Why? What will they gain? I note @MarqueeMark liked, but he hasn't left.

    This might be a misunderstanding. I am not saying the aspiring won't leave, and that is an issue. I'm not saying people won't leave for quality of life issues.

    I'm particularly saying those who are well off who haven't left won't now because of tax. If they were they would have already done it. They might for a job or quality of life, but that would happen anyway.
    As I said, taxes, schmaxes. But many rich people might get the feeling that this govt is coming for them and this is just the start.
    Top tip - they could just cancel their Telegraph and Speccie subscriptions and this feeling would miraculously disappear. Much cheaper than leaving the country too.
    The two most notable totemic issues for Lab over the past decade or two have been private school VAT and foxhunting.

    Neither amount to a hill of beans economics (or indeed animal welfare-)wise but are red meat to the rank and file. And both are designed to make a point against a certain demographic who Lab believes are to be made to alter their beliefs with laws to back them up.

    That doesn't come from the pages of the Speccie or the Telegraph.
    That is such a warped view. The main concerns of the left are the NHS and education. Housing should have equal weight but doesn't. Fox hunting isn't in the top 20.

    Your warped view comes from places like the Speccie and Telegraph, it is simply not real.
    Pretty much the only policy announced by Labour prior to the election was the VAT on private schools. Which was not done to improve education - because even the densest can see that it won't benefit state school pupils - it was done to punish people using private schools. Because it is an issue which the left cares deeply about.
    Now arguably it is a suboptimal situation to have a two-tier education system. But of all the pressing needs to address in education, this doesn't seem to be anywhere close to the top of the list. It is there because it is important to the activists.

    Ditto foxhunting in 1997 (replace animal welfare for education). Though Lab came in in 1997 with rather more of a plan than Lab in 2024.

    This is nonsense. Here is the Labour manifesto:

    https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-MANIFESTO-UK-2024.pdf

    There are 19 pages with dozens of policies, including a page on education.

    VAT on Private schools is not even mentioned. How can you believe it was their only policy? The answer is simply that it is the obsession of the right wing media, not the obsession of Labour.
    On a slightly pedantic note, that's the Easy Read Summary adumbrated version of the manifesto.

    This is the full 136 page one, and it is mentioned (plus references to "tax breaks"):
    https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf

    I still think that Sir Keir on the cover has a Douglas Hurd look about him - in Alan Clark's terms.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,662
    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Did Jenrick blow it with a conference speech that was too right-wing? Didn't watch it myself.

    And his character. He'd offer nothing but bombast and questionable ethics.
    Indeed, he presents as a right prat. But it might be wise for the One Nation grouping to ensure he is in the final. Kemi is quite mad, and could therefore win with the nutcase membership.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,556
    Dumbosaurus said:

    what are the rules if there's a tie break for 2nd?

    Good question. I was asking this the other day. They'd probably hold the vote for a second time, but not sure what happens if there's a repeat of the tie. Rishi Sunak hasn't been voting in each round (reportedly) so maybe he might decide to vote to break the deadlock.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,659
    "Russia on mission to cause mayhem on UK streets, warns MI5"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8e15yr1gwo

    As I've said passim, we're already at war. :(
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,228
    Anabobazina said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Did Jenrick blow it with a conference speech that was too right-wing? Didn't watch it myself.

    And his character. He'd offer nothing but bombast and questionable ethics.
    Indeed, he presents as a right prat. But it might be wise for the One Nation grouping to ensure he is in the final. Kemi is quite mad, and could therefore win with the nutcase membership.
    I do wonder how many one nation conservatives joined to vote

    I didn't but wished I had
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,556
    LostPassword said:

    I thought that Jenrick was inevitable for a long time, but losing MP support between rounds is a really bad look.

    One change I would make to the Tory leadership rules would be to say there's no member's ballot if the winner of the final round has the support of more than half the MPs and is at least 20pp ahead of the second-placed candidate.

    It would put a stop to all these shenanigans about the leading candidate lending votes to choose who they face in the member's ballot, which risks making the candidate with the third highest level of support among MPs the leader.

    Some people believe Gove was knocked out by Johnson supporters lending votes to Hunt in 2019.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,568
    edited October 8
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am confused by Jenrick's slump, everybody loves a lawyer.

    Other characteristics of the fellow may have weighed in.
    Nah, it’s absolutely because he’s yet another damn lawyer. And you’ll never guess where he went to university?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,172
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Cookie said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Good afternoon from the Aberystwyth to Holyhead train

    Really pleased and hope Cleverly wins

    Wait - there's a train from Aberystwyth to Holyhead?
    Yes with change at Shrewsbury shortly
    Ah, I see. I thought ATW had maybe introduced an exciting new route.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,568
    I think Kemi should be favourite here, it’s too close between the three of them for much tactical voting, and how many Tugendhat votes are going to Jenrick?

    Kemi is the favourite among most of the members’ surveys, so if she gets past the MPs she’s the most likely winner.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,694
    ‪Sam Freedman‬ ‪@samfr.bsky.social‬
    ·
    33m
    A tremendous opportunity to get rid of the odious Jenrick before the members get to choose.

    Which would then leave the ideal battle between Badenoch (excellent comedy value) and Cleverly (me winning money).

    https://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3l5z2ctqsrl25
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 675
    Anabobazina said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Did Jenrick blow it with a conference speech that was too right-wing? Didn't watch it myself.

    And his character. He'd offer nothing but bombast and questionable ethics.
    Indeed, he presents as a right prat. But it might be wise for the One Nation grouping to ensure he is in the final. Kemi is quite mad, and could therefore win with the nutcase membership.
    As a nutcase member, that's what I'm hoping for for sure. Currently my betting position is aligned too.

    But I'd be fine with Cleverly - key thing is to keep that bastard Jenrick who makes children cry away from power.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,860
    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Did Jenrick blow it with a conference speech that was too right-wing? Didn't watch it myself.

    And his character. He'd offer nothing but bombast and questionable ethics.
    I don't find Jenrick particularly bombastic? He seems very measured to me.

    I'm quite puzzled by your overall attitude to be honest. You spend half your time on PB between anger and grief at the wokification, leftification, and economic basket-casification of the UK, and when given the chance to do something about it you choose...



    ...Jimmy Dimly. Favoured candidate of civil servants and centrist dads the country over. It's like you're smacking yourself in the face as hard as possible with a plank of wood.

    Ah well.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,460
    Cleverly supporters would rather he faces Jenrick with the members
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,228
    edited October 8
    Cookie said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Cookie said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Good afternoon from the Aberystwyth to Holyhead train

    Really pleased and hope Cleverly wins

    Wait - there's a train from Aberystwyth to Holyhead?
    Yes with change at Shrewsbury shortly
    Ah, I see. I thought ATW had maybe introduced an exciting new route.
    It is very exciting with mixture of single track, old fashioned request halts, and big stations with lines going everywhere

    Our tickets do show Colwyn Bay to Aberystwyth with TFW all the way
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,950
    Forget polls, we have real numbers of early votes cast in Pennsylvania.


    Pennsylvania early voting returns data: as of today

    Democratic registered: 73.3% 100,845
    Republican registered: 19.0% 26,148
    Other 7.7% 10,661


    added since 4th October

    Democratic registered: 35,610
    Republican registered: 8,806
    Other 3,640

    Assuming people are voting broadly along the lines they registered, then either

    a) Trump is having very little success in moving his voters to coming out ahead of 5th November

    or

    b) Harris has some mighty momentum.

    Bear in mind some of those registered Republicans might well be Haley voters lending their vote to Harris. Haley got 16% of the vote in the Republican primary six weeks AFTER she had withdrawn her candidature.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,556
    edited October 8
    rottenborough said:

    ‪Sam Freedman‬ ‪@samfr.bsky.social‬
    ·
    33m
    A tremendous opportunity to get rid of the odious Jenrick before the members get to choose.

    Which would then leave the ideal battle between Badenoch (excellent comedy value) and Cleverly (me winning money).

    https://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3l5z2ctqsrl25

    Feel I ought to know who Sam Freedman is but don't.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,860
    Sandpit said:

    I think Kemi should be favourite here, it’s too close between the three of them for much tactical voting, and how many Tugendhat votes are going to Jenrick?

    Kemi is the favourite among most of the members’ surveys, so if she gets past the MPs she’s the most likely winner.

    Tugendhat himself might go Jenrick if he's serious about his China positioning. His going to Cleverly would be extremely odd.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,860
    Scott_xP said:

    Cleverly supporters would rather he faces Jenrick with the members

    Hope so! That's the match I'd like.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,694
    MarqueeMark said:

    Forget polls, we have real numbers of early votes cast in Pennsylvania.


    Pennsylvania early voting returns data: as of today

    Democratic registered: 73.3% 100,845
    Republican registered: 19.0% 26,148
    Other 7.7% 10,661


    added since 4th October

    Democratic registered: 35,610
    Republican registered: 8,806
    Other 3,640

    Assuming people are voting broadly along the lines they registered, then either

    a) Trump is having very little success in moving his voters to coming out ahead of 5th November

    or

    b) Harris has some mighty momentum.

    Bear in mind some of those registered Republicans might well be Haley voters lending their vote to Harris. Haley got 16% of the vote in the Republican primary six weeks AFTER she had withdrawn her candidature.

    Trump spent years telling his cult that early voting was a scam and they shouldn't do it.

    Be a shame if listening to the lying tyrant means they lose.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,694
    Sandpit said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am confused by Jenrick's slump, everybody loves a lawyer.

    Other characteristics of the fellow may have weighed in.
    Nah, it’s absolutely because he’s yet another damn lawyer. And you’ll never guess where he went to university?
    St Neots poly wasn't it?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,568
    edited October 8
    Cookie said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Good afternoon from the Aberystwyth to Holyhead train

    Really pleased and hope Cleverly wins

    Wait - there's a train from Aberystwyth to Holyhead?
    Not quite. He’ll be going out to Shewsbury and back into Wales again.

    You can get as far North as Porthmadog or Pwllheli from Mid-Wales, then it’s taxi the rest of the way. Lovely journey up the coast that.

    Would be a nice new 20 miles of railway to make up the gap between the two lines between Porthmadog and Bangor, but suspect it would see little traffic outside six weeks of summer.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,556
    "I refurbished Downing Street flat because it looked like crack den, claims Boris Johnson"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/08/boris-johnson-downing-street-crack-den-refurbishment/
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 675
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Did Jenrick blow it with a conference speech that was too right-wing? Didn't watch it myself.

    And his character. He'd offer nothing but bombast and questionable ethics.
    I don't find Jenrick particularly bombastic? He seems very measured to me.

    I'm quite puzzled by your overall attitude to be honest. You spend half your time on PB between anger and grief at the wokification, leftification, and economic basket-casification of the UK, and when given the chance to do something about it you choose...



    ...Jimmy Dimly. Favoured candidate of civil servants and centrist dads the country over. It's like you're smacking yourself in the face as hard as possible with a plank of wood.

    Ah well.
    Jenrick is enough of a slimey bastard that there's a decent chance he concedes before tomorrow in return for a cabinet place, and enough of a stupid bastard that he does this deal with "Jimmy", you know.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,030
    Another FPT.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Reeves urged to scrap free prescriptions for 60- to 65-year-olds

    Move could raise the Treasury more than £6bn in lead up to Budget

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/reeves-urged-scrap-free-prescriptions-60-65-year-olds/

    A bit more detail. That £6bn the Telegraph claims would be saved "in the lead up to the budget" is actually explained in the article itself as being over a decade.

    But if you go back to the Impact Assessment for when the Tories proposed this the actual cash saving is more like ~£200m per annum afaics.

    Here's the impact assessent. It has a full DCF-NPV analysis of multiple options and I think the £6bn is more to do with "health benefit" impact involving QALYs etc to get a notional figure. It's quite a chunky doc.
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/60d5a38dd3bf7f7c2c6ba21d/impact-assessment-upper-age-prescription-exemption.pdf

    Given a) That the savings are not a lot, b) That ~90% of prescription items are already free and c) That total prescription fee income is only ~£600m per annum, I think a more rational option to address generational inequality (the article premise) would simply be to make them all free for everyone, and add the difference to the IHT or other Tax Tweek.

    In this, the Telegraph has handed the Govt an opportunity to get a modest hit on the Right - if their media operation is up to it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,556
    "@IanDunt

    Used to have some time for Tugendhat. That was an error. He has been useless in this campaign: cynical, superficial and singularly unwilling to defend the moderate values he supposedly holds."

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1843665588213952595
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 5,959
    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris is getting a huge historic lead in white college graduates in the latest polling:

    Clinton achieved +5% margin
    Biden achieved +9% margin
    Harris has a poll showing +18% margin

    Biggest margin ever recorded.

    (Source CNN)

    They also have higher turnout rates than white non graduates .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,731
    Just imagine how big lead Cleverly’s lead would be if it wasn’t for the Chagos Island surrender.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,662
    edited October 8
    MarqueeMark said:

    Forget polls, we have real numbers of early votes cast in Pennsylvania.


    Pennsylvania early voting returns data: as of today

    Democratic registered: 73.3% 100,845
    Republican registered: 19.0% 26,148
    Other 7.7% 10,661


    added since 4th October

    Democratic registered: 35,610
    Republican registered: 8,806
    Other 3,640

    Assuming people are voting broadly along the lines they registered, then either

    a) Trump is having very little success in moving his voters to coming out ahead of 5th November

    or

    b) Harris has some mighty momentum.

    Bear in mind some of those registered Republicans might well be Haley voters lending their vote to Harris. Haley got 16% of the vote in the Republican primary six weeks AFTER she had withdrawn her candidature.

    Cheers Mark. Do we know how those compare to earlier Potuses? (2020 excepted because Trump campaigned against EV in that election).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,950
    nico679 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris is getting a huge historic lead in white college graduates in the latest polling:

    Clinton achieved +5% margin
    Biden achieved +9% margin
    Harris has a poll showing +18% margin

    Biggest margin ever recorded.

    (Source CNN)

    They also have higher turnout rates than white non graduates .
    Indeed. Be interesting to see how that is breaking down between males/females. Given women vote more than men.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,662
    edited October 8
    Andy_JS said:

    "I refurbished Downing Street flat because it looked like crack den, claims Boris Johnson"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/08/boris-johnson-downing-street-crack-den-refurbishment/

    Johnson is such an inveterate slob that it was doubtless him that made it that way.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,805
    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,568
    MarqueeMark said:

    Forget polls, we have real numbers of early votes cast in Pennsylvania.


    Pennsylvania early voting returns data: as of today

    Democratic registered: 73.3% 100,845
    Republican registered: 19.0% 26,148
    Other 7.7% 10,661


    added since 4th October

    Democratic registered: 35,610
    Republican registered: 8,806
    Other 3,640

    Assuming people are voting broadly along the lines they registered, then either

    a) Trump is having very little success in moving his voters to coming out ahead of 5th November

    or

    b) Harris has some mighty momentum.

    Bear in mind some of those registered Republicans might well be Haley voters lending their vote to Harris. Haley got 16% of the vote in the Republican primary six weeks AFTER she had withdrawn her candidature.

    What we really need, is a comparison of those numbers with the same point in the 2020 election, when Trump was actively encouraging voters to vote in person on the day.

    There’s definitely a very active GOP registration and early voting operation going on in PA, for example:
    https://x.com/scottpresler/status/1843670921615446288
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,022
    Anabobazina said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "I refurbished Downing Street flat because it looked like crack den, claims Boris Johnson"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/08/boris-johnson-downing-street-crack-den-refurbishment/

    Johnson is such an inveterate slob that it was doubtless him that made it that way.
    Does he actually think people will believe him?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,805
    Oh fuck. My phone just told me my flight is boarding. And it did a little vibration

    Cool cool!!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,659
    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    If you are of a certain mindset, you might find yourself getting a little obsessed with metrics. "I must beat my step count!!!" is a beginners=level one. :)

    Enjoy Geneva.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,731
    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    Sad, you should have gone for the Apple Watch Ultra 2.

    The black one is the watch Batman would use.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,556
    "China hits back at EU with brandy tax"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn8jz39xl19o
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,805
    JosiasJessop said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    If you are of a certain mindset, you might find yourself getting a little obsessed with metrics. "I must beat my step count!!!" is a beginners=level one. :)

    Enjoy Geneva.

    These things are amazeybollox

    It’s like having a little genie tugging at your arm. “Don’t miss your flight!”
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,288
    rottenborough said:

    The membership want Kemi. Are MPs really going to defy them in the end?

    Letting the membership choose when so few of them and such a narrow sect is bonkers in my opinion, but them's the rules at moment.

    Precisely the reason why Robert LaFollette, then Governor (later US Senator) of Wisconsin, successfully campaigned for a primary election law, that ended old system of nominations by conventions of party members (mostly bosses, hacks & henchpeople) in favor of voter primaries.

    By opening the nomination process, Fighting Bob helped break the rule of narrow, easily maniputated cliques . . . such as the miniscule "membership" of the Conservative & Unionist Party.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,659
    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris is getting a huge historic lead in white college graduates in the latest polling:

    Clinton achieved +5% margin
    Biden achieved +9% margin
    Harris has a poll showing +18% margin

    Biggest margin ever recorded.

    (Source CNN)

    I'm seeing many times more pro-Trump/anti-Harris stuff on Twix than I am anti-Trump/pro-Harris. This is despite me being more on the pro-Harris side.

    It'll be interesting to see if this election is a case of those who make the most noise, having least effect. Or if the noise matters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,341
    Nothing inevitable about this at all, I am a Tugendhat supporter who now backs Jenrick for starters
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,743
    Leon said:

    Oh fuck. My phone just told me my flight is boarding. And it did a little vibration

    Cool cool!!

    Is it on your wrist, or in nature's pocket?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,288
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Cookie said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Cookie said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Good afternoon from the Aberystwyth to Holyhead train

    Really pleased and hope Cleverly wins

    Wait - there's a train from Aberystwyth to Holyhead?
    Yes with change at Shrewsbury shortly
    Ah, I see. I thought ATW had maybe introduced an exciting new route.
    It is very exciting with mixture of single track, old fashioned request halts, and big stations with lines going everywhere

    Our tickets do show Colwyn Bay to Aberystwyth with TFW all the way
    PLEASE do NOT "throw Momma from the train"!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,805
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    Sad, you should have gone for the Apple Watch Ultra 2.

    The black one is the watch Batman would use.
    I wanted the one with long battery life and good health stuff. Life is too short to be constantly charging a watch

    What tipped me over was a chat with a good good friend who told me he’d been in hospital 8 times v recently. Horrible health scare. But should be ok

    Why am I twatting about if these gizmos are good for your health?

    Of course now I’ve bought one I’ve become aware of them and I’ve noticed about 30% of people (at Gatwick) seem to be wearing some kind of smart watch
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,399
    JosiasJessop said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris is getting a huge historic lead in white college graduates in the latest polling:

    Clinton achieved +5% margin
    Biden achieved +9% margin
    Harris has a poll showing +18% margin

    Biggest margin ever recorded.

    (Source CNN)

    I'm seeing many times more pro-Trump/anti-Harris stuff on Twix than I am anti-Trump/pro-Harris. This is despite me being more on the pro-Harris side.

    It'll be interesting to see if this election is a case of those who make the most noise, having least effect. Or if the noise matters.
    What is Twix? Googled it and got chocolate.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 5,959
    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Forget polls, we have real numbers of early votes cast in Pennsylvania.


    Pennsylvania early voting returns data: as of today

    Democratic registered: 73.3% 100,845
    Republican registered: 19.0% 26,148
    Other 7.7% 10,661


    added since 4th October

    Democratic registered: 35,610
    Republican registered: 8,806
    Other 3,640

    Assuming people are voting broadly along the lines they registered, then either

    a) Trump is having very little success in moving his voters to coming out ahead of 5th November

    or

    b) Harris has some mighty momentum.

    Bear in mind some of those registered Republicans might well be Haley voters lending their vote to Harris. Haley got 16% of the vote in the Republican primary six weeks AFTER she had withdrawn her candidature.

    What we really need, is a comparison of those numbers with the same point in the 2020 election, when Trump was actively encouraging voters to vote in person on the day.

    There’s definitely a very active GOP registration and early voting operation going on in PA, for example:
    https://x.com/scottpresler/status/1843670921615446288
    Here’s a great link .

    https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,650
    Barnesian said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris is getting a huge historic lead in white college graduates in the latest polling:

    Clinton achieved +5% margin
    Biden achieved +9% margin
    Harris has a poll showing +18% margin

    Biggest margin ever recorded.

    (Source CNN)

    I'm seeing many times more pro-Trump/anti-Harris stuff on Twix than I am anti-Trump/pro-Harris. This is despite me being more on the pro-Harris side.

    It'll be interesting to see if this election is a case of those who make the most noise, having least effect. Or if the noise matters.
    What is Twix? Googled it and got chocolate.
    Twitter/X.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,228
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Cookie said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Cookie said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Good afternoon from the Aberystwyth to Holyhead train

    Really pleased and hope Cleverly wins

    Wait - there's a train from Aberystwyth to Holyhead?
    Yes with change at Shrewsbury shortly
    Ah, I see. I thought ATW had maybe introduced an exciting new route.
    It is very exciting with mixture of single track, old fashioned request halts, and big stations with lines going everywhere

    Our tickets do show Colwyn Bay to Aberystwyth with TFW all the way
    PLEASE do NOT "throw Momma from the train"!
    Not after 62 years together !!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,731
    Leon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    Sad, you should have gone for the Apple Watch Ultra 2.

    The black one is the watch Batman would use.
    I wanted the one with long battery life and good health stuff. Life is too short to be constantly charging a watch

    What tipped me over was a chat with a good good friend who told me he’d been in hospital 8 times v recently. Horrible health scare. But should be ok

    Why am I twatting about if these gizmos are good for your health?

    Of course now I’ve bought one I’ve become aware of them and I’ve noticed about 30% of people (at Gatwick) seem to be wearing some kind of smart watch
    Apple Watches will save your life.

    https://www.imore.com/health-fitness/apple-watch/5-times-an-apple-watch-saved-a-life-and-how-it-did-it
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,191
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    The membership want Kemi. Are MPs really going to defy them in the end?

    Letting the membership choose when so few of them and such a narrow sect is bonkers in my opinion, but them's the rules at moment.

    Precisely the reason why Robert LaFollette, then Governor (later US Senator) of Wisconsin, successfully campaigned for a primary election law, that ended old system of nominations by conventions of party members (mostly bosses, hacks & henchpeople) in favor of voter primaries.

    By opening the nomination process, Fighting Bob helped break the rule of narrow, easily maniputated cliques . . . such as the miniscule "membership" of the Conservative & Unionist Party.
    The demos that elects a leader must have a cost/benefit relation with them (analogous to "insurable interest" in insurance). That makes me think that the electorate should be the 650MP and candidate MPs, not just the MPs in Parliament (who may prefer their own necks to the party) nor the members (who may vote on whim).

    Happy to be corrected if wrong.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,223
    Leon said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    If you are of a certain mindset, you might find yourself getting a little obsessed with metrics. "I must beat my step count!!!" is a beginners=level one. :)

    Enjoy Geneva.

    These things are amazeybollox

    It’s like having a little genie tugging at your arm. “Don’t miss your flight!”
    Did you miss many flights without it?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,223
    edited October 8
    Scotland's population rising at fastest rate since 1940s
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4z83yndldo

    Everyone's moving to Scotland for free prescriptions.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,690
    CatMan said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "I refurbished Downing Street flat because it looked like crack den, claims Boris Johnson"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/08/boris-johnson-downing-street-crack-den-refurbishment/

    Johnson is such an inveterate slob that it was doubtless him that made it that way.
    Does he actually think people will believe him?
    Probably.

    We've all believed all sorts of rubbish he's said in the past.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,066
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    Sad, you should have gone for the Apple Watch Ultra 2.

    The black one is the watch Batman would use.
    Batman would have a Garmin Instinct (the yellow one?)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,066
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Scotland's population rising at fastest rate since 1940s
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4z83yndldo

    Everyone's moving to Scotland for free prescriptions.

    Fleeing the fires and flooding in England.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,860
    viewcode said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    The membership want Kemi. Are MPs really going to defy them in the end?

    Letting the membership choose when so few of them and such a narrow sect is bonkers in my opinion, but them's the rules at moment.

    Precisely the reason why Robert LaFollette, then Governor (later US Senator) of Wisconsin, successfully campaigned for a primary election law, that ended old system of nominations by conventions of party members (mostly bosses, hacks & henchpeople) in favor of voter primaries.

    By opening the nomination process, Fighting Bob helped break the rule of narrow, easily maniputated cliques . . . such as the miniscule "membership" of the Conservative & Unionist Party.
    The demos that elects a leader must have a cost/benefit relation with them (analogous to "insurable interest" in insurance). That makes me think that the electorate should be the 650MP and candidate MPs, not just the MPs in Parliament (who may prefer their own necks to the party) nor the members (who may vote on whim).

    Happy to be corrected if wrong.
    You're wrong.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,659
    edited October 8
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    Sad, you should have gone for the Apple Watch Ultra 2.

    The black one is the watch Batman would use.
    I wanted the one with long battery life and good health stuff. Life is too short to be constantly charging a watch

    What tipped me over was a chat with a good good friend who told me he’d been in hospital 8 times v recently. Horrible health scare. But should be ok

    Why am I twatting about if these gizmos are good for your health?

    Of course now I’ve bought one I’ve become aware of them and I’ve noticed about 30% of people (at Gatwick) seem to be wearing some kind of smart watch
    Apple Watches will save your life.

    https://www.imore.com/health-fitness/apple-watch/5-times-an-apple-watch-saved-a-life-and-how-it-did-it
    From a quick read of that article, I think any Garmin with heart rate detection would do all of those.

    Don't endanger people's lives by telling them these things are only available on Apple.

    Edit: incidentally, we are going to see increasing amounts of wearable biometrics, and false positives notwithstanding, I think that's an excellent thing. Regardless of the provider.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,628
    Barnesian said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris is getting a huge historic lead in white college graduates in the latest polling:

    Clinton achieved +5% margin
    Biden achieved +9% margin
    Harris has a poll showing +18% margin

    Biggest margin ever recorded.

    (Source CNN)

    I'm seeing many times more pro-Trump/anti-Harris stuff on Twix than I am anti-Trump/pro-Harris. This is despite me being more on the pro-Harris side.

    It'll be interesting to see if this election is a case of those who make the most noise, having least effect. Or if the noise matters.
    What is Twix? Googled it and got chocolate.
    Kool Kidz name for Twatter.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,659
    Barnesian said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Harris is getting a huge historic lead in white college graduates in the latest polling:

    Clinton achieved +5% margin
    Biden achieved +9% margin
    Harris has a poll showing +18% margin

    Biggest margin ever recorded.

    (Source CNN)

    I'm seeing many times more pro-Trump/anti-Harris stuff on Twix than I am anti-Trump/pro-Harris. This is despite me being more on the pro-Harris side.

    It'll be interesting to see if this election is a case of those who make the most noise, having least effect. Or if the noise matters.
    What is Twix? Googled it and got chocolate.
    Twitter + X

    I use it as it (in my mind, at least...) shows contempt for Musk's name change of the service.

    Incidentally, Aus did not fall for that.

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/10/x-loses-appeal-of-400k-australia-child-safety-fine-now-faces-more-fines/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,191
    edited October 8
    MarqueeMark said:

    Forget polls, we have real numbers of early votes cast in Pennsylvania.


    Pennsylvania early voting returns data: as of today

    Democratic registered: 73.3% 100,845
    Republican registered: 19.0% 26,148
    Other 7.7% 10,661


    added since 4th October

    Democratic registered: 35,610
    Republican registered: 8,806
    Other 3,640

    Assuming people are voting broadly along the lines they registered, then either

    a) Trump is having very little success in moving his voters to coming out ahead of 5th November

    or

    b) Harris has some mighty momentum.

    Bear in mind some of those registered Republicans might well be Haley voters lending their vote to Harris. Haley got 16% of the vote in the Republican primary six weeks AFTER she had withdrawn her candidature.

    Two things are good indicators of election success

    * postal votes (see EUREF16 for an example)
    * places where they campaign (see UKGE15 or UKGE24 for examples)

    So if a candidate gets stacks more postal votes and campaigns in hitherto-safe areas for their opponent, they should be the favourite
  • CJtheOptimistCJtheOptimist Posts: 280
    Andy_JS said:

    "I refurbished Downing Street flat because it looked like crack den, claims Boris Johnson"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/08/boris-johnson-downing-street-crack-den-refurbishment/

    Poor Theresa May.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,191
    Eabhal said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Scotland's population rising at fastest rate since 1940s
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4z83yndldo

    Everyone's moving to Scotland for free prescriptions.

    Fleeing the fires and flooding in England.
    Well it is uphill from England, so less likely to flood... :):):)
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,723
    kyf_100 said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    If you are of a certain mindset, you might find yourself getting a little obsessed with metrics. "I must beat my step count!!!" is a beginners=level one. :)

    Enjoy Geneva.

    These things are amazeybollox

    It’s like having a little genie tugging at your arm. “Don’t miss your flight!”
    Did you miss many flights without it?
    I find people who actually enjoy being buzzed by constant notifications very weird - my phone is permanently on silent - and even weirder when people enjoy constant notifications on the wrist.

    Sort of like how it suddenly became acceptable to use your phone at the dinner table in the late 2000s. The idea that you're less present and in the moment and more attached to the tech that's telling you what to do or how to behave.

    If I live to be 180, I will still never own a "smart" watch. My watch tells the time. Nothing more, nothing less.
    I still awaiting the edge case where I need to tell the time at 50m depth. But one day it will come.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,659
    kyf_100 said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    If you are of a certain mindset, you might find yourself getting a little obsessed with metrics. "I must beat my step count!!!" is a beginners=level one. :)

    Enjoy Geneva.

    These things are amazeybollox

    It’s like having a little genie tugging at your arm. “Don’t miss your flight!”
    Did you miss many flights without it?
    I find people who actually enjoy being buzzed by constant notifications very weird - my phone is permanently on silent - and even weirder when people enjoy constant notifications on the wrist.

    Sort of like how it suddenly became acceptable to use your phone at the dinner table in the late 2000s. The idea that you're less present and in the moment and more attached to the tech that's telling you what to do or how to behave.

    If I live to be 180, I will still never own a "smart" watch. My watch tells the time. Nothing more, nothing less.
    And if that works for you, cool.

    Alerts are configurable. Just about everything on such watches (Garmin, Apple or whatever...) is configurable. Mrs J has her watch much more tightly tied down (not linked to any other accounts) than I have.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,956
    viewcode said:

    Eabhal said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Scotland's population rising at fastest rate since 1940s
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4z83yndldo

    Everyone's moving to Scotland for free prescriptions.

    Fleeing the fires and flooding in England.
    Well it is uphill from England, so less likely to flood... :):):)
    Its an old one, but my dad always refers to driving north as going uphill. Drives me mad!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,690
    Meanwhile, the crude "centre-right and right, equally split" model still holds.

    If Tom's votes are more centrist than right wing, that would point to James on sixtyish this time tomorrow with Kemi and Bob on thirtyish each.

    I doubt it will be quite that neat, but it's likely that Cleverly will have a significant (but a bit phoney) plurality.

    Does that affect what happens next?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,572
    viewcode said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    The membership want Kemi. Are MPs really going to defy them in the end?

    Letting the membership choose when so few of them and such a narrow sect is bonkers in my opinion, but them's the rules at moment.

    Precisely the reason why Robert LaFollette, then Governor (later US Senator) of Wisconsin, successfully campaigned for a primary election law, that ended old system of nominations by conventions of party members (mostly bosses, hacks & henchpeople) in favor of voter primaries.

    By opening the nomination process, Fighting Bob helped break the rule of narrow, easily maniputated cliques . . . such as the miniscule "membership" of the Conservative & Unionist Party.
    The demos that elects a leader must have a cost/benefit relation with them (analogous to "insurable interest" in insurance). That makes me think that the electorate should be the 650MP and candidate MPs, not just the MPs in Parliament (who may prefer their own necks to the party) nor the members (who may vote on whim).

    Happy to be corrected if wrong.
    That's an interesting idea - so standing as a paper candidate in Bootle would get you a vote for the leadership?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,628
    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    Sad, you should have gone for the Apple Watch Ultra 2.

    The black one is the watch Batman would use.
    I wanted the one with long battery life and good health stuff. Life is too short to be constantly charging a watch

    What tipped me over was a chat with a good good friend who told me he’d been in hospital 8 times v recently. Horrible health scare. But should be ok

    Why am I twatting about if these gizmos are good for your health?

    Of course now I’ve bought one I’ve become aware of them and I’ve noticed about 30% of people (at Gatwick) seem to be wearing some kind of smart watch
    Apple Watches will save your life.

    https://www.imore.com/health-fitness/apple-watch/5-times-an-apple-watch-saved-a-life-and-how-it-did-it
    From a quick read of that article, I think any Garmin with heart rate detection would do all of those.

    Don't endanger people's lives by telling them these things are only available on Apple.

    Edit: incidentally, we are going to see increasing amounts of wearable biometrics, and false positives notwithstanding, I think that's an excellent thing. Regardless of the provider.
    Private docs in the U.K. are starting to asks for data from such devices. My NHS GP looked horrified when I asked him if he used such data.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,694
    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    Sad, you should have gone for the Apple Watch Ultra 2.

    The black one is the watch Batman would use.
    I wanted the one with long battery life and good health stuff. Life is too short to be constantly charging a watch

    What tipped me over was a chat with a good good friend who told me he’d been in hospital 8 times v recently. Horrible health scare. But should be ok

    Why am I twatting about if these gizmos are good for your health?

    Of course now I’ve bought one I’ve become aware of them and I’ve noticed about 30% of people (at Gatwick) seem to be wearing some kind of smart watch
    Apple Watches will save your life.

    https://www.imore.com/health-fitness/apple-watch/5-times-an-apple-watch-saved-a-life-and-how-it-did-it
    From a quick read of that article, I think any Garmin with heart rate detection would do all of those.

    Don't endanger people's lives by telling them these things are only available on Apple.

    Edit: incidentally, we are going to see increasing amounts of wearable biometrics, and false positives notwithstanding, I think that's an excellent thing. Regardless of the provider.
    Yeh, but does it dispense cash?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,628
    biggles said:

    kyf_100 said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    If you are of a certain mindset, you might find yourself getting a little obsessed with metrics. "I must beat my step count!!!" is a beginners=level one. :)

    Enjoy Geneva.

    These things are amazeybollox

    It’s like having a little genie tugging at your arm. “Don’t miss your flight!”
    Did you miss many flights without it?
    I find people who actually enjoy being buzzed by constant notifications very weird - my phone is permanently on silent - and even weirder when people enjoy constant notifications on the wrist.

    Sort of like how it suddenly became acceptable to use your phone at the dinner table in the late 2000s. The idea that you're less present and in the moment and more attached to the tech that's telling you what to do or how to behave.

    If I live to be 180, I will still never own a "smart" watch. My watch tells the time. Nothing more, nothing less.
    I still awaiting the edge case where I need to tell the time at 50m depth. But one day it will come.
    Accurate timing is vital in diving.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,572
    rottenborough said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    Sad, you should have gone for the Apple Watch Ultra 2.

    The black one is the watch Batman would use.
    I wanted the one with long battery life and good health stuff. Life is too short to be constantly charging a watch

    What tipped me over was a chat with a good good friend who told me he’d been in hospital 8 times v recently. Horrible health scare. But should be ok

    Why am I twatting about if these gizmos are good for your health?

    Of course now I’ve bought one I’ve become aware of them and I’ve noticed about 30% of people (at Gatwick) seem to be wearing some kind of smart watch
    Apple Watches will save your life.

    https://www.imore.com/health-fitness/apple-watch/5-times-an-apple-watch-saved-a-life-and-how-it-did-it
    From a quick read of that article, I think any Garmin with heart rate detection would do all of those.

    Don't endanger people's lives by telling them these things are only available on Apple.

    Edit: incidentally, we are going to see increasing amounts of wearable biometrics, and false positives notwithstanding, I think that's an excellent thing. Regardless of the provider.
    Yeh, but does it dispense cash?
    It melts all polymer notes within 2 metres.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,694
    CJtheOptimist said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "I refurbished Downing Street flat because it looked like crack den, claims Boris Johnson"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/08/boris-johnson-downing-street-crack-den-refurbishment/

    Poor Theresa May.
    It was a crackpot den just after him.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,650
    Malmesbury said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    Sad, you should have gone for the Apple Watch Ultra 2.

    The black one is the watch Batman would use.
    I wanted the one with long battery life and good health stuff. Life is too short to be constantly charging a watch

    What tipped me over was a chat with a good good friend who told me he’d been in hospital 8 times v recently. Horrible health scare. But should be ok

    Why am I twatting about if these gizmos are good for your health?

    Of course now I’ve bought one I’ve become aware of them and I’ve noticed about 30% of people (at Gatwick) seem to be wearing some kind of smart watch
    Apple Watches will save your life.

    https://www.imore.com/health-fitness/apple-watch/5-times-an-apple-watch-saved-a-life-and-how-it-did-it
    From a quick read of that article, I think any Garmin with heart rate detection would do all of those.

    Don't endanger people's lives by telling them these things are only available on Apple.

    Edit: incidentally, we are going to see increasing amounts of wearable biometrics, and false positives notwithstanding, I think that's an excellent thing. Regardless of the provider.
    Private docs in the U.K. are starting to asks for data from such devices. My NHS GP looked horrified when I asked him if he used such data.
    Does the NHS have wrist watch technology yet?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,066
    RobD said:

    Malmesbury said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    I HAVE JOINED THE PB CENTRIST DADS

    Just bought the Garmin Venu 3 at Gatwick

    Including flights and accommodation I might just have crept over my £400 Geneva budget

    Sad, you should have gone for the Apple Watch Ultra 2.

    The black one is the watch Batman would use.
    I wanted the one with long battery life and good health stuff. Life is too short to be constantly charging a watch

    What tipped me over was a chat with a good good friend who told me he’d been in hospital 8 times v recently. Horrible health scare. But should be ok

    Why am I twatting about if these gizmos are good for your health?

    Of course now I’ve bought one I’ve become aware of them and I’ve noticed about 30% of people (at Gatwick) seem to be wearing some kind of smart watch
    Apple Watches will save your life.

    https://www.imore.com/health-fitness/apple-watch/5-times-an-apple-watch-saved-a-life-and-how-it-did-it
    From a quick read of that article, I think any Garmin with heart rate detection would do all of those.

    Don't endanger people's lives by telling them these things are only available on Apple.

    Edit: incidentally, we are going to see increasing amounts of wearable biometrics, and false positives notwithstanding, I think that's an excellent thing. Regardless of the provider.
    Private docs in the U.K. are starting to asks for data from such devices. My NHS GP looked horrified when I asked him if he used such data.
    Does the NHS have wrist watch technology yet?
    My GP practice certainly does not, appointment was 45 mins late last time
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