The ConHome poll has moved the market – politicalbetting.com
The ConHome poll has moved the market – politicalbetting.com
.@JamesCleverly overtakes @RobertJenrick in our post-conference leadership survey https://t.co/ZgKy4i0qyl
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The current contenders can spend a couple of years better making a policy-driven case. But new faces will be encouraged to come forward with a better manifesto. (And they won't be expected to pay absurd sums to cover the process either, under the way he will conduct the next leadership race.)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/06/if-mcsweeney-cant-fix-starmers-dysfunctional-downing-street/
https://fortune.com/europe/2024/07/08/britain-prime-minister-sir-keir-starmer-work-past-6-fridays-good-example/
I've long been of the view that Cleverly is value but I'd say Cleverly is now a lay.
Two things to note:
- I am really crap at political betting, so me laying Jenrick strongly suggests he will win.
- 'all the funds in my Smarkets account' translates to £12.03, so I am hardly Billy Big Bollocks here.
Nevertheless, I have just traded out for a £2.79 profit which covers my loss on an inexplicable punt on Clare Coutinho a few months back, so all is well with the world.
Though I maintain 50/1 was an excellent value loser.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/07/08/its-not-looking-good-for-suella-braverman/
I was reminded of them whilst listening to some 'It Could Happen Here' podcasts - radical left which will put some of you off, but I would heartily recommend a recent one on the Darien gap: https://open.spotify.com/episode/31zGPQdbeNyMgyKDp2r291?si=950dfe584fec4f18.
I don't envy the US politicians trying to find a solution to migration across the southern border, which makes our small boats issue look like nothing, but whatever policy decisions are made towards migration should be done so in full knowledge of the day-to-day* experience of migrants making journeys such as that across the Darien gap. It's a brave piece of reporting and worth half an hour of your time.
*@CasinoRoyale I almost typed lived experience here but stopped. You would be proud.
Biden has left Camp David and gone to the Whitehouse.
https://x.com/worldsource24/status/1842958937337037241?s=61
I think Jenrick is the value now. He is pretty certain to make the members vote.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961
Tbh, I'm pretty crap too, and cautious. I play with tiny stakes. I often lose. When i win its usually a small amount.
I just look for tips from those much smarter than me about the stats, and try and recognise who to listen to amongst the noise.
Gong for Sue Grey to ease her passage out of her job into a non job ?
Some quite interesting analysis of his language and sentence structure.
The NYT has taken a lot of flack for ignoring the many issues with Trump. If they are starting to change it does not bode well for him.
But I have long since realised I lose more than I win, so try to make this a cheap, rather than an expensive, hobby. Like Casino I value what I learn from those on here with sounder heads than mine.
There was a post here the other day (@Nigelb?) saying how Trump had pledged to restore some confederacy names to key military sites and elsewhere.
Whilst I'm not a supporter of the Confederacy- nowhere close - I can see why stripping out every single statue of Robert Lee and Stonewall Jackson would have pissed off Southerners, as it's part of their history and identity. I was annoyed even here about the Rhodes Commission to make a detailed submission to them, and that one stayed up.
There are lots of little things like that about Trump that garner him votes.
Jurisdiction over statues, school names, parks etc is not a federal responsibility.
So in Georgia there are 201 recognised Confederate memorials still extant for example, including a statue of General Gordon outside the state legislature, despite him being a KKK leader. The state flag is based on the Confederate flag too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials_in_Georgia
So it isn't accurate to suggest that history is being erased.
There are 45 schools in Georgia named for Confederates too, some with significant African American student enrollment.
It wouldn't make me any more inclined to vote for the orange fash-lite liar, but each to their own.
Eat BEFORE you get to Pristina airport
Must be winter.
You mentioned removing statues of Lee and Jackson. That isn't a Federal responsibility
International commercial flights appear to be staying well away from the area. Sandpit flights are mostly heading out straight West over Saudi and then Egypt before heading North.
https://x.com/flightradar24/status/1842975937979363807
2) it’s 9D chess
3) it’s a non story, talking down the country., from the alt-right Guardian newspaper
4) all of the above
This period covers
i) The aftermath of the budget
ii) The result of the Tory leadership election
iii) The US presidential election
I feel I have picked the ideal time for a quiet break.
But, of course, you know this. You were just being your usual tedious self.
I think..
A good example of Starmer's comms people asleep at the wheel. And there have been plenty of non-stories which Starmer's people have thoroughly lost control of.
It's like they didn't realise the Tory's client media wouldn't run with a story whether it was true or not.
Labour have been very fortunate that Tory MPs have been less inclined towards the mudslinging and left it to Leon and the Telegraph. That will stop once Jenrick becomes LOTO, so not much time to get their act together.
Nothing will ever top OGH's break in June 2023, it saw over three consecutive days
i) The publication of the Privileges Committee report into Boris Johnson lying to the Commons
ii) Boris Johnson quitting as an MP because of i)
iii) Nadine Dorries and Nigel Adams triggering by elections because they weren't given peerages
iv) Nicola Sturgeon was arrested
it was utterly surreal editing PB then.
The corollary is that there are no voters who might be upset or annoyed by racist sentiment. Or that they don’t matter because they’re in safe Democrat seats. Somewhere like Georgia, I’m not sure that’s true.
Divisive ideologies tend to drive turnout among their own supporters, and among their opponents.
The secret - this is where the dog whistle analogy is so powerful - is to appeal to your own ideologies while making sure the other side don’t notice.
I have a few planned threads on Scottish independence, AV, and why lawyers are awesome.
Yes I know it's bollocks.
“We’ve had a strategy in place and we’ll try to keep to it, which is to carve out really protected time for the kids, so on a Friday – I’ve been doing this for years – I will not do a work-related thing after 6 o’clock, pretty well come what may. There are a few exceptions, but that’s what we do.”
On a more serious note, I am surprised some journalist hasn't done some leg work and had a proper look at where the levelling up money was spent. From personal experience I know of some very interesting places it end up, and certainly not what most people would think required levelling up cash.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/morgan-mcsweeney-sue-gray-starmer-wife-who-b2624665.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54498357
Same with other jobs in government.
At that point you’ll hear screaming. Because that means sharing power. And sharing it with worse rivals than the Opposition. Sharing it with colleagues!!!!!!
Brown’s chief of staff left after 6months. Labour lost the election.
Cameron’s director of comms, left after 8months & went to jail. Tories won.
Johnson’s chief aide left after 16months. PM was later ousted.
Not everything has to be “unprecedented”. What happens next 🤷♂️
https://x.com/MattChorley/status/1842996733812572475
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braxton_Bragg
… Bragg is generally considered among the worst generals of the Civil War. Most of the battles he engaged in ended in defeat. Bragg was extremely unpopular with both the officers and ordinary men under his command, who criticized him for numerous perceived faults, including poor battlefield strategy, a quick temper, and overzealous discipline. ..
Though I grant it’s on brand.
Clip of a Canadian doctor who does euthanasia, chatting about her work
It has several disturbing moments. For me it is her urgent mirthless laughter as she talks about terminal cancer
https://x.com/serena_partrick/status/1842623436700450990?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
See what you think. I don’t know where I stand on this sad issue. But the Canadian example gives me doubts
The thing is, I was against Boris well before he left his role as MoL. I thought he would be a disaster as PM (the role he evidently wanted...) and I think I was right for the correct reasons.
Having said that, I increasingly find myself defending him in certain ways. Whilst he was nowhere near the Churchill-reincarnated that he saw himself, or the anti-EU hero some of his fanbois saw; he is nowhere near as bad as many of his critics make out. The critics go far too far, to almost stupid levels.