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Why you shouldn’t read too much into small unweighted subsamples – politicalbetting.com
Why you shouldn’t read too much into small unweighted subsamples – politicalbetting.com
Here are our two polls of KY-06, the district where we closed out live polling at KY-06.Look at the difference, by chance, at n=100! These are two *weighted* samples with a net-30 point difference. In the end, totally the same. pic.twitter.com/P4m7Lh8sko
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On Wednesday, October 2, 2024, the President signed into law:
S. 2228, the “Building Chips in America Act of 2023,” which exempts certain projects relating to the production of semiconductors from environmental reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/legislation/2024/10/02/bill-signed-s-2228/
The devil would be in the detail. As a general principle, it's a good idea, so long as competing interests aren't completely ignored.
I assume it's pretty rare.
...This bill modifies and limits the review of certain semiconductor (i.e., microchip) projects under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA).
Specifically, the bill exempts from NEPA and NHPA specified semiconductor projects that receive financial assistance under the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021.
Next, the bill allows the Department of Commerce to serve as the lead agency for the review of a semiconductor project that receives such financial assistance but is not exempted from review under NEPA. A single environmental document and joint record of decision must be prepared for a semiconductor project. In completing the environmental review, Commerce may adopt a prior study or decision under certain circumstances. The bill also allows a state to assume the responsibility of an environmental review under NEPA for a semiconductor project.
Finally, the bill sets a statute of limitations for certain claims under NEPA...
Sky reporting Saudi, Bahrain, Egypt, and UAE have said a president Trump would be the answer for the middle east
No idea of source but certainly that is what Kay Burley said in an interview just now
https://ide-tech.com/en/blog/why-water-sustainability-is-vital-for-the-semiconductor-industry/
Though there is considerable recycling.
ETA: Also, it's important to know, if Trump is the answer, what the question is!
Have edited it
https://x.com/birthgauge/status/1832726932552572974?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
There are some really startling stats in there
Live births in Chile fell from 90,000 to 70,000 in one half year. A 22% fall. Chile’s Total Fertility Rate is 0.88 - less than one child per woman. Chile is also the richest, most developed nation in S America. But it is running out of Chileans
East Asia is a horror show of course. Korea is dying. China is not far behind. I had no idea Thailand is similar - when you go there you see kids everywhere but that’s probably because I mainly go to youthful Bangkok
Schools worldwide will start closing down
(It is a problem from a perpetual-growth viewpoint that our politicians and economists like. But from the viewpoint of the future of mankind?)
The number of atoms in the observable universe (~ 10^80) is minuscule compared to that !!!
Though allowing someone who has US citizens chopped up to have any input into whom the US elects seems sub-optimal.
Harris:
Like: 42%
Dislike: 34%
Neutral: 18%
Trump:
Dislike: 51%
Like: 32%
Neutral: 15%
YouGov / Oct 1, 2024 / n=1638
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1841567740324413781
And highly productive nations like Korea are on the cusp of disappearing entirely
Upside: much cheaper houses
That’s why pollsters do everything possible to not have to do that.
BBC cancels Boris Johnson interview after Laura Kuenssberg message gaffe
Briefing notes mistakenly being sent to ex-PM meant it was ‘not right for the interview to go ahead’, says presenter
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/03/bbc-cancels-boris-johnson-interview-laura-kuenssberg-briefing-notes
It wouldn't so matter so much at 1.9, 1.8, but when you're down at 1.3 like Scotland... It also depends on why. If it's because women (and indeed men) have more opportunities to work, travel and study, that's great. If it's because housing is so expensive that young couples don't feel they can't afford to have kids (or at least until you run into fertility issues) - terrible.
Housing is a big problem, but I suspect the former reason is much more important than we like to admit.
Mr. Dopermean, a thousand years ago when I was writing fiction, I accidentally sent a beta reader a copy of a draft containing my own notes (which tend to be very sarcastically critical "Remove this apostrophe then cut your own hands off" etc). Luckily, it was an amusing rather than serious screw up.
However Ukrainians do fit this template. By absorbing much or all of Ukraine Putin solves Russia’s demographic problems, and makes it more Slavic, at least for the medium term
How about Mishal Husian?
I find it hilarious that Bozo is losing 30 minutes / 1 hour of TV time during which he would remind people he existed and has a book to sell.
https://democrats-science.house.gov/news/press-releases/ranking-member-lofgren-floor-statement-for-the-record-on-consideration-of-s-2228-the-building-chips-in-america-act
Of course the problem is that if you are not doing the proper reviews before hand then you have to deal with the pollution afterwards.
suspect if he did consider a return to frontline politics
*I don't think this is a phrase. Maybe there is a better one.
Putin has failed in his war aims, and things over time will only get worse for him, even if he were somehow to eke out some kind of "victory" in the short/medium term. It is more likely that Ukrainian tanks will end up in Rostov than Russian ones in Lviv. As for Russian demographics, Putin already knows he is staring disaster in the face. Hi repressive attempts to increase the birth rate are almost laughable.
As are his killing or maiming of two-thirds of a million breeding-age males.
Mother Russia is barren. 19th century Mormonism might get a foothold in Putin's Russia, as able bodied men get themselves multiple wives.
Or else Islam.
A decade ago, it was that it's all the EU's fault.
Now, it's all the fault of immigrants.
Simple answers that are not really answers.
Why are the Balts disappearing?
It's not surprising that most Women avoid marriage https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/east-asia/south-korea-marriages-birthrate-b2507149.html#:~:text=And age-wise, a significant,lowest fertility rate at 0.55.
Also, methodology. You have to select a theoretically representative sample in the first place, even before the vagaries of random chance in the opinions of those people come into play. This is always difficult, and particularly so in the US where state contests vary over 2-/4-/6-year cycles, where turnout and registration are crucial and are also not consistent over time, and where access to voting varies considerably from place to place and year to year.
Which of your leadership candidates is standing on that platform?
(and Palestine) have notably healthy TFRs. Egypt is high (but falling fast)
But many other Islamic countries are way below 2.1: Iran, Malaysia, Azerbaijan - all dwindling
Most immediately, the imminent collapse in China's population means that their fighting age population will also collapse, which will increase the sense of urgency in Beijing to use the military strength their economic strength has given them before it melts away.
But once the world was a whole is shrinking the consequences become even larger.
I do know that Poland has stopped exporting so many people but it still has horrendous demographics - some of the worst in Europe. Forecast TFR of 1.10
The problem is really how this will be done and enforced. One of the big problems in the US is the intersection between multiple Federal, State and local agencies. These often allow problems to slip through the cracks.
They also can result in serious legal barriers - a chap Texas had a fun one. Essentially a new pond of water had formed on a bit of his land. Under one set of rules/laws (local) he had to drain it, for public health reasons. If he did, he was potentially prosecutable under federal rules for wetlands. Oh, and if he drained it, where the water went was a whole other bag of fun.
Not dissimilar stuff impedes big projects in the UK.
It is of interest that, for offshore wind, the streamlining wasn't about removing all regulation. It was setting out, very clearly, exactly what needed to be done, to make a decision on the project. Line up all the reports and surveys for ship wrecks, fish habitat etc etc. Get all your ducks lined up in a nice row - and you have a decision. Further, a decision that wasn't subjectable to automatic legal challenge.
As a member of the Enquiry Industrial Complex put it to me (slightly abbreviated) "It's unfair - there is nothing we can use to delay a project".
I find that quite sad.
But yes, he's been obsessed with Russia's demographics for a long time. Indeed, a core part of his nationalist-authoritarian philosophy comes from the collapse in Russia's birth rate through the chaos and uncertainties of the 1990s.
So maybe this is Gaia, rebalancing herself naturally. But we don’t want humans to disappear entirely
We need to somehow go back to a world of 2-3bn humans but at the same time start settling other planets
Whereas in the west, we often don't like hanging around the office as much as we would like.
The guy was a crazy hardworker himself (in the pre-marriage and pre-kids phase of his work...) so he knew a little about working hard.
My headline view is that the very big problems of demographic decline are rather smaller than the very big problems of untramelled demographic growth. So on a global scale there's that to be cheery about. But there's no doubt they are big problems.
The wikipedia page on Chinese demographics has a little animation of their projected age/sex pyramid, which is quite startling.
The interesting thing is that demographic decline seems to happen everywhere in the developed or almost-developed world, regardless of local culture and politics. It's easy to blame housing costs, and housing costs are certainly a problem, but globally, poverty clearly doesn't stop people having children - all the really high birth rates are in really poor places. It's easy to blame the choices people make, but this seems to hold true across all cultures - and in any case, I think it's the case that people continue to want children in the same numbers they always did. The number of childless women who get to their mid-40s and wish they'd had children is about 90% of the number of childless women who get to their mid-40s. The number of people who wish they'd had more children is almost infinitely higher than the proportion who wish they'd had fewer.
There are all sorts of reasons why children don't happen, but my theory is that they have a common root: across all developed and almost-developed societies, there are many more old people than there used to be, and the more old people you have, the more resources you have to put into looking after that generation, so the less you have for the next generation. Low birth rates are to a large extent a feature of high birth rates a generation or two ago: the steeper the population growth a generation or two ago (e.g. East Asia), the steeper the decline now.
This doesn't hold for sub-Saharan Africa because so few people make it to old age. But when they start doing so, we'll see the same pattern there.
A chap I worked with, while working on the finances of the ex-Soviet oil industry, found a fun example of how to tell lies with statistics. His idea of fun was figures - got talking to some people in the local medical care system in the 'stans. It turned out that under the Soviet regime, birth rate was a Target. The system was obsessed with having enough soldiers in the next generation - shades of WWII etc. So people lied, as they lied with all the other figures.
It seemed that because of a lack of birth control (medicine), abortion was high in the good old USSR. So the management types counted pregnancies - before the abortions! - in their returns to Moscow as "children on the way".
Makes you wonder how many countries that was true for.
I’ve managed two but without going into details it could/should have been several more
When I count my acquaintances it is striking how many are childless (and now going to stay that way). Sadly, I do think most of them regret it
Back in the day when birthrates were well above replacement level, commanders could afford to be profligate with their soldiers' lives, secure in the knowledge that the population of young men would bounce back, after the war.
Putin's generals haven't yet woken up to the fact that human wave tactics are destroying Russia.
The reaction to this question is always interesting, in the UK.
Equally to show how had it is, I don't have an expensive house (the better options are in way worse locations) and I earn well over the average wage..
In some of the places I worked, there was a clear and manifest long hours in the office culture. It was perceived the more you were seen in the office by senior management the more likely it was you would be rewarded when higher grade roles were advertised.
Needless to say, most of those who spent long hours in the office were extraordinarily unproductive as they simply tried to fill the time looking busy. The truth about working from home is it mirrors what goes on in the office itself and the lack of productivity (perceived rather than actual) is no different whether you're suited and booted at a desk or wearing your rupert bear jim-jams in your living room.
The long hours culture needs to be run down and a stake driven through its still beating heart - we had another anti-WFH tirade in the Mail last weekend. I thought, as we moved further into the 21st century, it was about working smarter, not harder but as we see in so many areas, the cultural mores lag far behind the technological and societal realities. The working patterns of the 20th century are anachronistic at best.
That said, I can't find the stats to back this up, and Wikipedia gives some very different stats.
If we have an Israel-Iran war, they’re likely not coming down at all!
With 5.24 births per woman.
The 22nd Century belongs to Nigeria.
There is probably a bit of interaction between the two if women who are more likely to have children are more likely to move abroad. Or the opposite.