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After the beauty parade punters make Cleverly the coming man – politicalbetting.com

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    ydoethur said:

    Really Scott. That implies they did die.

    You mean they IS Welsh.
    I read that as "Ridley Scott". Was the stabbing filmed with beautiful cinematography and lighting but with a script so bad it made even brutal violence boring?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    DavidL said:

    In terms of precedent does AV beating Bayern Munich not mean that they get presented with the European Cup?
    Unai Emery has beaten Bayern Munich for the third time with as many clubs 👔

    ✅ PSG
    ✅ Villarreal
    ✅ Aston Villa
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    I don't bet (I know, I know...). The thing is, if he was facing a competent Tory party then he'd be in much deeper trouble. But he is not, at least yet - and perhaps not at all, if the new leader isn't very good. As long as the Conservatives remain in chaos, he can do okay.

    But we need better than okay.
    Ah, you don’t bet. That rather puts some of your predictions in perspective.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    DavidL said:

    In terms of precedent does AV beating Bayern Munich not mean that they get presented with the European Cup?
    I thought AV was defeated in the referendum.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    tlg86 said:

    Apologies if already discussed:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/oct/02/middlesexs-long-term-future-lords-doubt-failing-extend-tenancy-cricket

    Middlesex’s future at Lord’s is in doubt with the club failing to secure a long-term extension of a tenancy agreement with the MCC that expires this year. After months of talks with the ground’s owners, Middlesex are close to agreeing a 12-month contract that will ensure most of their matches are played at the home of cricket next summer, but the club’s long-term future is uncertain.

    Middlesex have been troubled by a number of governance and financial problems in recent years, with senior figures at the MCC believed to have expressed concerns about the way the county are run. There is also understood to be tension between some of the senior figures at the clubs.

    I hope Middlesex dies. I had paid for my membership for the 2020 season and they just keep the money. No offer of a name on a donor wall if they kept it, like Yorkshire. No future discounts. They just said “tough”. I hope they die and I’ll join the MCC’s new tenant club.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,996

    The thing is, there were other problems facing Blair in 1997/8, aside from the Ecclestone mess. They were more minor, but could have been troublesome.

    But Blair had several advantages over Starmer: he was personally popular; he had won on a mandate of positivity; and he had a great team around him to spin the message.

    Starmer has none of these, as many people pointed out before the election. He won because of the Conservative's woes, not because there was a great fervour for Labour's policies.

    IMV that spells big problems for him.
    Starmer is no Blair, but does have a habit of proving people wrong because of that slightly plodding unlikability that leads people to underestimate his less showy strengths.

    Other factors mattering more are also partly the point - ultimately if the country can plausibly talked about as in better shape in 2028/9 than in 2024 then broadly speaking people will forgive Labour its current woes and write them off as growing pains of getting back into government. If it isn't and Labour stumble through the next 4/5 years then they will be the first evidence they were not up to it and wrong'uns.

    Your perception of which is likelier will generally depend on your underlying views about Labour.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    This is a genuine BBC News tweet:

    https://x.com/bbcnews/status/1841484989805756516

    Teachers stabbed by pupil thought they was going to die

    Switch the machine off, the BBC is dead.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,911
    DavidL said:

    "Teachers" and "they" are plural. "Was" is singular. If a teacher was using the pronoun "they", which I suppose is possible these days, it would be "teacher". Its illiterate. From the BBC. O tempora o mores.
    I was looking for something deeper than that, lol. Usually I notice grammatical mistakes.
  • Why repay £6k? All that happens now is that every other penny will continue to be under massive scrutiny. Until it all gets repaid.

    Did Boris repay the cash? Did Blair?

    Who is advising these guys?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    Why repay £6k? All that happens now is that every other penny will continue to be under massive scrutiny. Until it all gets repaid.

    Did Boris repay the cash? Did Blair?

    Who is advising these guys?

    It is more and more obvious that he lacks a deeply political animal in his office (Campbell to Blair or Osborne to Cameron) and lacks those instincts himself.
  • biggles said:

    It is more and more obvious that he lacks a deeply political animal in his office (Campbell to Blair or Osborne to Cameron) and lacks those instincts himself.
    It is increasingly funny just how inept they are.
  • I thought AV was defeated in the referendum.
    68% v. 32%
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    It is increasingly funny just how inept they are.
    Wait until the unintended, unpredictable, consequences of the Budget kick in. They always happen.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited October 2024

    Why repay £6k? All that happens now is that every other penny will continue to be under massive scrutiny. Until it all gets repaid.

    Did Boris repay the cash? Did Blair?

    Who is advising these guys?

    The play for this scandal was obvious....come out straight away, say yes i took these, rules allowed them, but referred myself for investigation (3 months time he is found guilty of nothing more than poor on the paperwork)...but we are a new government, doing things a new way, and determined we are above reproach....so i have paid back all the money and so has Rachel, Ange (you get the party to do it) and i will be setting up an independent commission on reforming rules over gifts.

    Then you get 2-3 days of media coverage and it becomes a boring process story about how Lord or Lady no-name will spend a year considering all this and report back.

    At the same time, you also get your Malcom Tucker to phone round the journos saying what gifts you had big man, i saw you at Taylor Swift, you wife looks different these days.And i presume you want us to attend your summer party, awards ceremony etc, but no politicians at a sumer politics party is a bit shit isn't it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    Nigelb said:

    Political divisions feel so intractable and immovable, but Jimmy Carter is still alive and his winning electoral map looks INSANE to a 2020s observer.
    https://x.com/aseitzwald/status/1841515041092174061

    Having seen the birthday photos of Predident Carter, I am not entirely convinced that he is alive.

    But it does show how the Electoral map is not set in stone.
  • viewcode said:

    Am I missing something 1: is there something wrong with the word "panties"? Is it now considered archaic, childish or rude? Genuine question.
    Squirrel Covers.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773

    68% v. 32%
    On penalties. The winner went thru to the Brexit referendum.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773

    Squirrel Covers.
    ??????????
  • The play for this scandal was obvious....come out straight away, say yes i took these, rules allowed them, but referred myself for investigation (3 months time he is found guilty of nothing more than poor on the paperwork)...but we are a new government, doing things a new way, and determined we are above reproach....so i have paid back all the money (you get the party to do it) and i will be setting up an independent commission on reforming rules over gifts.

    Then you get 2-3 days of media coverage and it becomes a boring process story about how Lord or Lady no-name will spend a year considering all this and report back.
    That’s one route. Boot it into the long grass of a commission

    The other route? We took the same donations as all politicians get. Ours were fancy geps and a suit and apparently Angie’s Eyebeethoh rave. The Tories took millions and awarded billions to their mates. It’s not equivalent.

    But oh no. We get flap and dither and then here’s a small cheque because yes we agree we done wrong. FFS…
  • Squirrel Covers.
    Are they the next Dodgy Donation who Starmer will have to give back?
  • viewcode said:

    ??????????
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-QiVf68o1U
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited October 2024

    That’s one route. Boot it into the long grass of a commission

    The other route? We took the same donations as all politicians get. Ours were fancy geps and a suit and apparently Angie’s Eyebeethoh rave. The Tories took millions and awarded billions to their mates. It’s not equivalent.

    But oh no. We get flap and dither and then here’s a small cheque because yes we agree we done wrong. FFS…
    I wouldn't have gone the but look at them....it doesn't play well, see expenses scandal, it often wasn't the amount of expenses, it was the contempt at putting dirty movies and moat cleaning in as an expense (they didn't even get paid out).

    And particularly if the pitch is we aren't like the last lot, not wr aren't quite as bad.
  • I wouldn't have gone the but look at them....it doesn't play well, see expenses scandal, it often wasn't the amount of expenses, it was the contempt at putting dirty movies and moat cleaning in as an expense (they didn't even get paid out).

    And particularly if the pitch is we aren't like the last lot, not wr aren't quite as bad.
    The other route is what I expect Labour to do. Self-entitled and assuming they are pure as driven snow cause they’re not the Tories. Streeting can pull that line off. Starmer? Apparently not.
  • That’s one route. Boot it into the long grass of a commission

    The other route? We took the same donations as all politicians get. Ours were fancy geps and a suit and apparently Angie’s Eyebeethoh rave. The Tories took millions and awarded billions to their mates. It’s not equivalent.

    But oh no. We get flap and dither and then here’s a small cheque because yes we agree we done wrong. FFS…
    I simply do not understand why Starmer thought it best to offer to repay just £6,000 of his freebies, especially at this time when the middle east is very much the story

    Apparently Sky are after Rayner tonight over her trip to a disco

    Starmer and Labour need someone to understand now they are in government the media see them as the gotchas, and watching Sky is remarkable how they have moved their gotcha to Labour
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,213
    Nebraska Senate seat is in play.
    Second such poll recently.

    Nebraska Senate Polling:

    Osborn (I): 47%
    Fischer (R): 42%

    Bullfinch / Oct 1, 2024 / n=400

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1841574298487509360
  • tlg86 said:

    Apologies if already discussed:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/oct/02/middlesexs-long-term-future-lords-doubt-failing-extend-tenancy-cricket

    Middlesex’s future at Lord’s is in doubt with the club failing to secure a long-term extension of a tenancy agreement with the MCC that expires this year. After months of talks with the ground’s owners, Middlesex are close to agreeing a 12-month contract that will ensure most of their matches are played at the home of cricket next summer, but the club’s long-term future is uncertain.

    Middlesex have been troubled by a number of governance and financial problems in recent years, with senior figures at the MCC believed to have expressed concerns about the way the county are run. There is also understood to be tension between some of the senior figures at the clubs.

    "the way the county are run" — what happened to subs?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited October 2024

    The other route is what I expect Labour to do. Self-entitled and assuming they are pure as driven snow cause they’re not the Tories. Streeting can pull that line off. Starmer? Apparently not.
    The other trick they should have followed from Cameron handling of expenses, he basically said doesn't matter if within the rules or not, today I have setup an internal star chamber, they will order people to pay back things deemed to be inappropriate. And then they whipped through the shadow cabinet fast and got them out the way.

    Starmer could have easily done this and said then when Lord no-name reports we will go with that guidance. And of course nobody really pays the money back, its just cycled around from central party / new donations.

    That would also put focus on other political parties to take some action and have their own freebies highlighted. And you of course drop in some breadcrumbs about how certain MPs on say the Media and Sport select committee always seem to be in the private box of gambling companies.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    The other route is what I expect Labour to do. Self-entitled and assuming they are pure as driven snow cause they’re not the Tories. Streeting can pull that line off. Starmer? Apparently not.
    Blair would have handled it, well let’s say somewhat differently.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited October 2024
    biggles said:

    Blair would have handled it, well let’s say somewhat differently.
    Think of the poor journalists ear drums though, they would have just had Bad Al scream at them for hours about how he knows they took a freebie to a kinky sex show with their mistress...so don't be thinking about getting on their high horse over some freebie suits.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773

    "the way the county are run" — what happened to subs?
    They went the same way as lift attendants. They no longer exist
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,213
    “In your lifetime…”

    "Do you personally hope that the US elects a woman President in your lifetime?"

    All:
    Yes: 53%
    No: 21%

    Yes Among:
    Dems: 87%
    Independents: 47%
    GOP: 21%

    YouGov / Oct 1, 2024 / n=1638

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1841568466421035112

    Republicans are either very old, or pretty damn misogynist.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,155
    And we’re getting a civil service strike over WFH on top of everything.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/02/civil-servants-threaten-strike-back-office-push/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    Squirrel Covers.
    Surely Beavers?
  • Foxy said:

    Surely Beavers?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-QiVf68o1U
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Think of the poor journalists ear drums though, they would have just had Bad Al scream at them for hours about how he knows they took a freebie to a kinky sex show with their mistress...so don't be thinking about getting on their high horse over some freebie suits.
    Yes, I don’t think anyone’s saying that the way Labour have (not) spun this is anything other than naive. You are right about that and put it well (and very humorously).

    What was getting my goat (and that of others) was the confected, puritanical pearl-clutching on here from the usual subjects. Barring a late declaration for Vic’s frocks (which Sir Keir rectified before any media interest), Labour operated within the rules. More to the point, other parties do exactly the same.

    So yes, laugh at the naivety - it is quite funny, granted. But the performative pearl-clutchers should get a life.
  • And we’re getting a civil service strike over WFH on top of everything.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/02/civil-servants-threaten-strike-back-office-push/

    Certainly London underground drivers have voted to strike as their wage rise to £70,000 is apparently not enough
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    Nigelb said:

    “In your lifetime…”

    "Do you personally hope that the US elects a woman President in your lifetime?"

    All:
    Yes: 53%
    No: 21%

    Yes Among:
    Dems: 87%
    Independents: 47%
    GOP: 21%

    YouGov / Oct 1, 2024 / n=1638

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1841568466421035112

    Republicans are either very old, or pretty damn misogynist.

    They would vote for a Thatcher clone or Palin
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,911
    Interesting stat: Labour held onto only 71% of their GE2019 vote at GE2024.

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278

    And we’re getting a civil service strike over WFH on top of everything.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/02/civil-servants-threaten-strike-back-office-push/

    Well they ain't going to go to Amazon or Goldman Sachs over their 2 days a week in the office hybrid work requirement are they!
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/sep/16/amazon-in-person-office-policy
    https://www.cityam.com/dont-be-a-twat-goldman-orders-staff-to-work-in-the-office-five-days-a-week/
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    HYUFD said:

    They would vote for a Thatcher clone or Palin
    Whatever happened to Sarah Palin? She was a high-profile (if truly terrible) VP pick, then seemed to disappear rapidly from view.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,155

    Whatever happened to Sarah Palin? She was a high-profile (if truly terrible) VP pick, then seemed to disappear rapidly from view.
    Anchored down in Anchorage?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    HYUFD said:

    Well they ain't going to go to Amazon or Goldman Sachs over their 2 days a week in the office hybrid work requirement are they!
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/sep/16/amazon-in-person-office-policy
    https://www.cityam.com/dont-be-a-twat-goldman-orders-staff-to-work-in-the-office-five-days-a-week/
    ONS does contain a number of deep experts who can see some greener grass elsewhere.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    edited October 2024

    Anchored down in Anchorage?
    A quick Wiki suggests she launched her own cable channel at some stage. She has also appeared on the Masked Singer, apparently.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,911
    I'm convinced Harris is going to win the election, but deciding how close it's going to be is very difficult.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    Liam Conlon
    The Labour MP and the son of Starmer’s chief of staff, Sue Gray, accepted two tickets worth £1,600 to see Taylor Swift at Wembley stadium.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/02/official-register-mps-financial-interests-must-read

    Am I the only person not to get freebies to Taylor Swift?

    You and me both. Don’t want to listen to her sing, but would cheerily work my way through the freebies in the hospitality box.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm convinced Harris is going to win the election, but deciding how close it's going to be is very difficult.

    Interesting. What makes you so sure of her victory?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,483
    viewcode said:
    I'm guessing it's a bad thing - but the link just gives me a paragraph then a 'sign up to read the article' blob.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    1h
    Walz: "There is a reason Mike Pence wasn't on that stage with me ... he chose the constitution over Donald Trump ... Senator Vance made it clear he will always make a different choice."


    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1841574656567881748


    ===

    And this kids is why Vance was picked by Trump.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999
    edited October 2024

    I simply do not understand why Starmer thought it best to offer to repay just £6,000 of his freebies, especially at this time when the middle east is very much the story

    Apparently Sky are after Rayner tonight over her trip to a disco

    Starmer and Labour need someone to understand now they are in government the media see them as the gotchas, and watching Sky is remarkable how they have moved their gotcha to Labour
    Remarkable how Labour have walked into those gotchas.

    "But..but..but - you can't do that to US!!! We aren't the Tories!!"

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm convinced Harris is going to win the election, but deciding how close it's going to be is very difficult.

    Unless it is not close at all then we face weeks of legal action, unconstitutional behaviour, protest and far far worse out on the streets sadly.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,483
    biggles said:

    It is more and more obvious that he lacks a deeply political animal in his office (Campbell to Blair or Osborne to Cameron) and lacks those instincts himself.
    I'm now picturing Ed, fist clenched in rage, half-eaten bacon buttie in the background. "I Could've Been A Contender!".

    Bless him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    1h
    Walz: "There is a reason Mike Pence wasn't on that stage with me ... he chose the constitution over Donald Trump ... Senator Vance made it clear he will always make a different choice."


    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1841574656567881748


    ===

    And this kids is why Vance was picked by Trump.

    He had no shortage of people who would say the same, so it wasn't the only reason.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,913

    Certainly London underground drivers have voted to strike as their wage rise to £70,000 is apparently not enough
    They’re striking coz they might have to do - shudder - two days in the office a week

    SACK THEM ALL. FUCK THEM
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,199
    ...
    biggles said:

    You and me both. Don’t want to listen to her sing, but would cheerily work my way through the freebies in the hospitality box.
    Couldn't be arsed myself.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,764
    Leon said:

    They’re striking coz they might have to do - shudder - two days in the office a week

    SACK THEM ALL. FUCK THEM
    It's more understandable when you realise their office is in Wales.

    Commute takes forever...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,911
    No kidding.

    "Amazon to increase number of advertisements on Prime Video"

    https://www.ft.com/content/f8112991-820c-4e09-bcf4-23b5e0f190a5
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    edited October 2024


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    1h
    Walz: "There is a reason Mike Pence wasn't on that stage with me ... he chose the constitution over Donald Trump ... Senator Vance made it clear he will always make a different choice."


    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1841574656567881748


    ===

    And this kids is why Vance was picked by Trump.

    To be fair to Vance he was very fluent and articulate last night and narrowly won the debate.

    Trump may well also have picked his successor as GOP nominee, he is not just a Trump diehard and indeed is probably the first VP nominee to be clearly more intelligent than the presidential nominee since Bush picked Cheney
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    Leon said:

    They’re striking coz they might have to do - shudder - two days in the office a week

    SACK THEM ALL. FUCK THEM
    Can't do that as they almost all vote Labour
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137
    kle4 said:

    Whilst happy for the first born not being killed, as a fifth born I still think we need more pro-later born policies.
    kle5?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    Eabhal said:

    It's more understandable when you realise their office is in Wales.

    Commute takes forever...
    They are based in Newport not Snowdonia!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    BREAKING: Laura Kuenssberg has cancelled her BBC interview with Boris Johnson after sending him the briefing notes by mistake

    "It’s very frustrating, and there’s no point pretending it’s anything other than embarrassing and disappointing"
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1841592311957873023
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    NEW: Voters now say Tories would be better at managing the economy, first CON lead since mid-2022.

    🟦 CON 27% (+6)
    🟥 LAB 26% (-6)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 30 Sep (+/- vs 22 July)
    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841508920323457249
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,764
    edited October 2024
    HYUFD said:

    They are based in Newport not Snowdonia!
    wooooosh
  • tlg86 said:

    Apologies if already discussed:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/oct/02/middlesexs-long-term-future-lords-doubt-failing-extend-tenancy-cricket

    Middlesex’s future at Lord’s is in doubt with the club failing to secure a long-term extension of a tenancy agreement with the MCC that expires this year. After months of talks with the ground’s owners, Middlesex are close to agreeing a 12-month contract that will ensure most of their matches are played at the home of cricket next summer, but the club’s long-term future is uncertain.

    Middlesex have been troubled by a number of governance and financial problems in recent years, with senior figures at the MCC believed to have expressed concerns about the way the county are run. There is also understood to be tension between some of the senior figures at the clubs.

    The County top brass held a 'meet the plebs' Q&A session in the Middlesex Room one tea interval in 2019 during which I questioned the need for such intrusive security at the gates as thoroughgoing bag search and humiliating body pat-down. The CE basically told me to eff off, with which I was more than happy to comply.

    As luck would have it, next season there was no effing cricket and no effing compensation for the poor effing members, so my departure was one of the very few financially advantageous events of 2020.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    edited October 2024
    HYUFD said:

    They are based in Newport not Snowdonia!
    ONS also have an office in Hampshire.

    So there's an Office for National Statistics office in Hampshire, and an Office for National Statistics office in Newport. That's the Office's offices. I'm sure that's cleared that up. 😃😃😃😃
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056
    HYUFD said:

    NEW: Voters now say Tories would be better at managing the economy, first CON lead since mid-2022.

    🟦 CON 27% (+6)
    🟥 LAB 26% (-6)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 30 Sep (+/- vs 22 July)
    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841508920323457249

    Stats for Lefties is sharing that? Doesn't seem like positive news for lefties. This is a corker though.

    NEW POLL ~ Popularity of party leaders:

    🟪 Nigel Farage: 39%
    🟦 Rishi Sunak: 28%
    🟥 Keir Starmer: 26%
    ⬜️ Jeremy Corbyn: 25%
    🟧 Ed Davey: 19%

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841151478104289284?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    kle4 said:

    Stats for Lefties is sharing that? Doesn't seem like positive news for lefties. This is a corker though.

    NEW POLL ~ Popularity of party leaders:

    🟪 Nigel Farage: 39%
    🟦 Rishi Sunak: 28%
    🟥 Keir Starmer: 26%
    ⬜️ Jeremy Corbyn: 25%
    🟧 Ed Davey: 19%

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841151478104289284?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
    They don't consider Starmer a leftie
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    The County top brass held a 'meet the plebs' Q&A session in the Middlesex Room one tea interval in 2019 during which I questioned the need for such intrusive security at the gates as thoroughgoing bag search and humiliating body pat-down. The CE basically told me to eff off, with which I was more than happy to comply.

    As luck would have it, next season there was no effing cricket and no effing compensation for the poor effing members, so my departure was one of the very few financially advantageous events of 2020.
    Yup. My lack of compensation for 2020 now means I despise the club. I won’t be alone. I do hope the MCC brings in another tenant or takes over.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    HYUFD said:

    They don't consider Starmer a leftie
    Indeed. He's a metropolitan elite lefty: bows the knee, mouths the words, but stops short of anything that looks like redistribution of wealth or moving the burden of taxation to the rich from the poor. He will defend the central tenets of elite politics - suppressing the working class by importing more and more people, not taxing the rich in case they leave, not increasing inheritance tax thus enabling the wealthy to perpetuate their wealth - and add authoritarian measures of his own - the smoking ban, the abandonment of the free speech act, more regulation, more offices of this and that.

    We're so far past the 70s we've forgotten what a true lefty looks like and does.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    edited October 2024
    viewcode said:

    Indeed. He's a metropolitan elite lefty: bows the knee, mouths the words, but stops short of anything that looks like redistribution of wealth or moving the burden of taxation to the rich from the poor. He will defend the central tenets of elite politics - suppressing the working class by importing more and more people, not taxing the rich in case they leave, not increasing inheritance tax thus enabling the wealthy to perpetuate their wealth - and add authoritarian measures of his own - the smoking ban, the abandonment of the free speech act, more regulation, more offices of this and that.

    We're so far past the 70s we've forgotten what a true lefty looks like and does.
    Corbyn for all his faults was a true leftie, Rayner is too, Starmer isn't. Indeed even Brown and Ed Miiband are more leftie than he is.

    So far, Starmer is more interested in targeting unwoke, Brexit voting pensioners (even those on low incomes struggling to stay warm this winter) than he is the rich and high earners. Especially as pensioners still voted Tory in July while many high earners voted Labour, especially in big cities and suburbs
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,677
    edited October 2024

    Liam Conlon
    The Labour MP and the son of Starmer’s chief of staff, Sue Gray, accepted two tickets worth £1,600 to see Taylor Swift at Wembley stadium.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/02/official-register-mps-financial-interests-must-read

    Am I the only person not to get freebies to Taylor Swift?

    I wouldn't want a freebie to see Taylor Swift (and I wouldn't bother with Oasis as they went off the boil after 96) but if anyone wants to pay for me to see Springsteen next summer, DM's are open! 😂
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,911
    338 is now forecasting a one seat majority for the Conservatives in the British Columbia election on 19th October.

    https://338canada.com/bc/
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,338

    I wouldn't have gone the but look at them....it doesn't play well, see expenses scandal, it often wasn't the amount of expenses, it was the contempt at putting dirty movies and moat cleaning in as an expense (they didn't even get paid out).


    And particularly if the pitch is we aren't like
    the last lot, not wr aren't quite as bad.
    Moat cleaning wasn’t even submitted as an expense claim!

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,338

    Yes, I don’t think anyone’s saying that the way Labour have (not) spun this is anything other than naive. You are right about that and put it well (and very humorously).

    What was getting my goat (and that of others) was the confected, puritanical pearl-clutching on here from the usual subjects. Barring a late declaration for Vic’s frocks (which Sir Keir rectified before any media interest), Labour operated within the rules. More to the point, other parties do exactly the same.

    So yes, laugh at the naivety - it is quite funny, granted. But the performative pearl-clutchers should get a life.
    You completely miss the point

    It doesn’t matter if it was in the rules or not. If it is within the rules, then the rules should be changed.

    This kind of influence peddling is unacceptable. And Starmer (and others) were wrong to take the gifts
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,338
    Eabhal said:

    wooooosh
    Unlikely to achieve a “wooooosh” at 20 mph!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831

    Whatever happened to Sarah Palin? She was a high-profile (if truly terrible) VP pick, then seemed to disappear rapidly from view.
    Leon must have tipped her as a prospect, I guess?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited October 2024

    Moat cleaning wasn’t even submitted as an expense claim!

    Wasn't it. I thought like the duck house, the MP just sent in a big wad of receipts and said I would like to claim for what I am allowed to claim. And they weren't paid out. Basically the MPs were rather entitled and lazy, but not on the take.

    The worst misreporting was the MP (I think a Labour MP) who if I remember correctly had already been in parliament 2 terms, and never claimed for property upgrades. They then finally wanted to upgrade the kitchen, they went and got it all designed and then wrote to the claims office and said ok, I know I am allowed to claim for this sort of work, here is the plan I was given, but actually what is within rules and what isn't. Then after you give me this information, I will decide revisions I should make and then will pay for those remaining things that won't be covered.

    The Telegraph still went for him. He even replied to their tactic at the time which was to write and say we got you, story tomorrow, any comment. He produced all the paperwork and they still ran the story.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,284
    Andy_JS said:

    338 is now forecasting a one seat majority for the Conservatives in the British Columbia election on 19th October.

    https://338canada.com/bc/

    Not bad, given they only have eight of the 93 seats at the moment.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,911
    Mel Stride got 16 votes in the last round of the contest. I can see his votes being transferred something like this: Tugendhat 8, Cleverly 6, Jenrick 1, Badenoch 1. That would give figures of Jenrick 34, Badenoch 29, Tugendhat 29, Cleverly 27. But we don't know whether Jenrick supporters might "lend" some votes to other candidates in an attempt to effect a particular outcome, such as knocking out Badenoch.
  • Whatever happened to Sarah Palin? She was a high-profile (if truly terrible) VP pick, then seemed to disappear rapidly from view.
    What happened, was that Sarah Palin not only lost the Alaska special election for US House in 2023, but in the process demonstrated that in the 3rd decade of the 3rd millennium, she could NOT get herself elected state (or local) dogcatcher up in the Last Frontier.

    Which in turn is response to Palin resigning as governor to cash in on her celebrity. Compounded by the comic opera of her family life.

    PLUS she's been superceded as right-wing femme fatale by the likes of Kari Lake, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited October 2024
    The number of people out of work due to ill health is growing by 300,000 a year, according to fresh analysis by a leading health thinktank.

    People of working age who quit their job due to ill health were also three times less likely to return to employment than those in good health, adding to the number of people claiming disability benefits, the Health Foundation said.

    The foundation said that, in addition to 4 million working-age people out of work with ill health, there were now 3.9 million people with work-limiting health conditions in employment – an increase of 1.5 million since 2013.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/oct/03/number-of-people-in-uk-out-of-work-due-to-ill-health-growing-by-300000-a-year
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,911

    What happened, was that Sarah Palin not only lost the Alaska special election for US House in 2023, but in the process demonstrated that in the 3rd decade of the 3rd millennium, she could NOT get herself elected state (or local) dogcatcher up in the Last Frontier.

    Which in turn is response to Palin resigning as governor to cash in on her celebrity. Compounded by the comic opera of her family life.

    PLUS she's been superceded as right-wing femme fatale by the likes of Kari Lake, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert.
    Do you have any inside information on the British Columbia election, since it's in your area?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    edited October 2024
    I see it’s been estimated that each of Iran’s missiles cost about $100,000 to produce, while to shoot them down cost Israel between $1-3,000,000 a time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,284
    IanB2 said:

    I see it’s been estimated that each of Iran’s missiles cost about $100,000 to produce, while to shoot them down cost Israel between $1-3,000,000 a time.

    Wikipedia lists it as $100,000 per interception, similar to the missile cost.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641
    edited October 2024
    RobD said:

    Wikipedia lists it as $100,000 per interception, similar to the missile cost.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome
    It does not really matter because Israel has to stop the missiles whatever the cost, some of which is on Uncle Sam's dime anyway (and it might be the higher cost is for direct US interception of missiles).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    Ah, you don’t bet. That rather puts some of your predictions in perspective.
    That doesn't mean I don't get things right occasionally. Or wrong. But I think I do reasonably. ;)

    Do you care to give an example?

    But also: let's see one of your recent 'predictions': that there was nothing to see in this bung of gifts from Alli to Labour. No siree. Nothing at all. Move along now...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    HYUFD said:

    They are based in Newport not Snowdonia!
    Clearly you’ve never driven in Newport.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    Unless it is not close at all then we face weeks of legal action, unconstitutional behaviour, protest and far far worse out on the streets sadly.
    Thing is, the headline electoral college figures probably won’t be that close, but the popular vote in multiple states will be.

    However, unless the close results are all in Republican controlled states and would be decisive to a Harris win, it’s not likely that there will be real barriers to certification.

    Interesting to see the Reps are struggling in Nebraska. That’s one of the states with an abortion referendum on the ballot (albeit there is no Dem candidate in the regular election). Would love to see any polling for Missouri on that basis.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    biggles said:

    Blair would have handled it, well let’s say somewhat differently.
    Coughecclestonecough.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,136
    edited October 2024
    Leon said:

    They’re striking coz they might have to do - shudder - two days in the office a week

    SACK THEM ALL. FUCK THEM
    Your second suggestion has been classed as sexual harassment and you've been registered for a sensitivity awareness seminar.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    ydoethur said:

    Thing is, the headline electoral college figures probably won’t be that close, but the popular vote in multiple states will be.

    However, unless the close results are all in Republican controlled states and would be decisive to a Harris win, it’s not likely that there will be real barriers to certification.

    Interesting to see the Reps are struggling in Nebraska. That’s one of the states with an abortion referendum on the ballot (albeit there is no Dem candidate in the regular election). Would love to see any polling for Missouri on that basis.
    Why do you say "the reps are struggling in Nebraska?" I figured it for safe Trump. Dish dirt, please kind sir.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,199
    edited October 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    Mel Stride got 16 votes in the last round of the contest. I can see his votes being transferred something like this: Tugendhat 8, Cleverly 6, Jenrick 1, Badenoch 1. That would give figures of Jenrick 34, Badenoch 29, Tugendhat 29, Cleverly 27. But we don't know whether Jenrick supporters might "lend" some votes to other candidates in an attempt to effect a particular outcome, such as knocking out Badenoch.

    Jenrick is the clear favourite - that will attract more than one Stride transfer I think - there won't be a huge appetite to back another loser, even if ideologically one is more aligned with said loser. Badenoch, perhaps not so much, but you never know.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,402
    edited October 2024
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn for all his faults was a true leftie, Rayner is too, Starmer isn't. Indeed even Brown and Ed Miiband are more leftie than he is.

    So far, Starmer is more interested in targeting unwoke, Brexit voting pensioners (even those on low incomes struggling to stay warm this winter) than he is the rich and high earners. Especially as pensioners still voted Tory in July while many high earners voted Labour, especially in big cities and suburbs
    I'm not sure I agree. The imposition of VAT on school fees shows that he's happy to target the rich and high earners, especially through their children.

    Anyway, let's see if you can still say that it's mostly pensioners who suffer after the Autumn Statement. That'll show where this government is really headed. Everything before that will just be noise.

    The one group of people who he clearly loves are public sector workers, especially if heavily unionised. They seem to have walked away with all the spare cash we don't have.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999
    edited October 2024
    ydoethur said:

    Thing is, the headline electoral college figures probably won’t be that close, but the popular vote in multiple states will be.

    However, unless the close results are all in Republican controlled states and would be decisive to a Harris win, it’s not likely that there will be real barriers to certification.

    Interesting to see the Reps are struggling in Nebraska. That’s one of the states with an abortion referendum on the ballot (albeit there is no Dem candidate in the regular election). Would love to see any polling for Missouri on that basis.
    *cough*Floridaabortionreferendum*cough*.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    viewcode said:

    Why do you say "the reps are struggling in Nebraska?" I figured it for safe Trump. Dish dirt, please kind sir.
    It's the Nebraska Senate race where the Reps are struggling.

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/independent-union-leader-shakes-final-weeks-nebraska-senate/story?id=114358117
  • Andy_JS said:

    Mel Stride got 16 votes in the last round of the contest. I can see his votes being transferred something like this: Tugendhat 8, Cleverly 6, Jenrick 1, Badenoch 1. That would give figures of Jenrick 34, Badenoch 29, Tugendhat 29, Cleverly 27. But we don't know whether Jenrick supporters might "lend" some votes to other candidates in an attempt to effect a particular outcome, such as knocking out Badenoch.

    If it is that close, it would be risky for Jenrick to "lend" votes elsewhere. If he actually got fewer votes in this round than in the previous one, it would be a very bad look.
    I know it is a boring narrative, but I think MPs will just vote for their preference.
This discussion has been closed.