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Trump as Corbyn, Biden as May, and Harris as Johnson? – politicalbetting.com
Trump as Corbyn, Biden as May, and Harris as Johnson? – politicalbetting.com
Reminds me of the 2019 polling before and after Tories replaced May with Johnson https://t.co/2U96GseW5M
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War is horrific, but as horrors go this is impressively efficient
But it also begs the question: why was this chilling accuracy not used against Hamas, why instead did they carpet bomb civilians?
Final polls close 4pm UK time, much of the country closes earlier.
Links - TV, official results page (I think
https://on.orf.at/live?channel=orf2
https://www.bmi.gv.at/412/Nationalratswahlen/Nationalratswahl_2024/start.aspx
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Austrian_legislative_election
https://www.bundeswahlen.gv.at/2019/
Many thanks,
DC
Maybe that's the answer to the "how to get unpopular but necessary stuff done" conundrum. Let a decent old codger on the way out anyway do the grunt work, replace them with someone smiley and new a bit before the election.
If it happens here in 2028 or so (Lou Haigh maybe?) bagsy the modesty rights.
For Hamas, they didn't/haven't or if they did know their location, Hama leaders were hiding in a hotel in Dubai which is less easy to carpet bomb (lots of western citizens as collateral damage).
Senior Conservatives were reported to be in talks about bringing forward the announcement by a week, according to the Mail, but the party said on Sunday that there are currently no plans to change the date, despite calls from candidates.
The contest is scheduled to run until 2 November, which will mean no Tory leader is in place before the 30 October budget – which the leader of the opposition responds to in parliament. Rishi Sunak, the former prime minister, will have to respond to Rachel Reeves under the current timing. He would then step down as leader three days later.
There is also disquiet that the result of the Tory leadership on Saturday 2 November will be hugely overshadowed by the final days of the US election, which is the following Tuesday.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/29/jenrick-and-tugendhat-call-for-tories-to-cut-leadership-contest-short?CMP=twt_b-gdnnews
And I can't think of anyone sensible, let alone Conservative, who could disagree.
Every leader in Iran must be quietly terrified
The EU, France and UK have condemned a senior Israeli minister for suggesting it might be “justified and moral” to starve people in Gaza.
Israel’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, sparked international outrage after he said on Wednesday: “No one in the world will allow us to starve 2 million people, even though it might be justified and moral in order to free the hostages.”
Separately on Wednesday, Israel’s Channel 12 broadcasted security camera footage that reportedly showed the sexual assault of a Palestinian detainee from Gaza at Sde Teiman military detention camp. Last week, the detention of the soldiers accused of involvement in the alleged abuse sparked violent riots.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/08/israel-finance-minister-bezalel-smotrich-gaza-starve-2m-people-comments
These are large sums. It wouldn't surprise me if one or more contenders drop out to avoid the bill if they are fairly sure that they are going to lose.
It is unlikely that a company under the VAT threshold could employ anyone in the first place- an extra 10k turnover is not going to put them in a position to 'hire more staff'.
Isn't the problem that the VAT threshold disincentivises expansion? - IE you can't employ anyone as it will take you over the VAT threshold thus destroying your competitiveness as your prices go up 20%.
But note Biden’s hitherto underwater approval rating just turned positive.
That’s exactly not May, just ahead of the 2019 election.
Different narrative.
Trump: All the stupid people said I fell into her trap. They said I fell into her trap. She can’t set a mental trap. I didn’t fall into her trap. There is no trap. I didn’t fall into her trap
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1840121367670251818
And if you’re an Israeli looking at October 7 I can see why you might feel that way. The Jewish state cannot tolerate the mere possibility it might happen again - it is existential. AND if you’re going to do this you have to get it done before Iran acquires nukes
So: this will end either with the elimination of any Palestinian homeland or the destruction of Israel
Secondly, I really don't see the new Tory leader getting much impact whenever he or she is announced. And that is ok because we are a very long way from any future election and there will be years to make that impression. Someone who is not so stupid as to indicate that they would prefer Trump in the run up to the US election or the inevitable litigation wars that will follow it would be a bonus though. Trump's unpopularity in the UK makes him look like the King of New York. If the new leader really thinks that they might want to keep it to themselves.
I am not sure I have the energy to cover the Tory leadership result and the American election in the space of three days.
If anything maternity pay and early years childcare funding needs to go up substantially so that parents don't feel as though they can't have 2 kids instead of 1 or decide that 2 is enough and not go for a third one etc...
I don't know if it plays well with members, perhaps it does because they're all old fuckers who "didn't have that in our day and we raised a family of 17 on a single salary" but this shows she doesn't understand the major demographic issue facing the nation and a big driver of migration in the last 10 years.
It's this thing called fiction. You know, it's not real.
The logic is pretty brutal if you’re an Israeli. Israel can only continue if “Palestine” is extinguished. Hence Gaza. At the same time Israel is now securing its northern border with Lebanon and maybe even taking out the Iranian leadership: might as well get it all done in one go
This all makes perfect sense IF your overwhelming concern is the survival of Israel as a Jewish ethno-state. It is also horrendously cruel
We also need to remember 30% of the population of Lebanon are Christian and 6% of Palestinians are Christian too, they should be naturally pro Israel but won't be if all their churches are bombed and their families driven from their homes
Hopefully Israel can continue to press its advantage and defeat Hezbollah and Hamas and then we might finally be able to break the cycle of violence and have peace.
If the evil Iranian regime falls too, all the better.
October 7 was an inflection point. The world changed - certainly for Israel and sadly for many many innocent Palestinians
To be clear I’m not trying to moralise either way. I’m trying to calmly analyse what Israel is doing and why. And they seem to be intent on destroying Gaza forever
They should be focused on freeing the hostages by force with special forces and then working for a firm 2 state solution in Israel and Palestine and supporting reformers in Iran
As long as they exist, those regions will be blockaded and impoverished and as long as people are impoverished the only way out of poverty or to have any hope is to unfortunately join with Hamas and Hezbollah respectively.
The only way to end the cycle of violence is to metaphorically stuff people's faces with gold, the Marshall Plan works, but the prerequisite of that even being an option is to end the threat from Hamas and Hezbollah.
Not reduce it, not a temporary ceasefire, but to end the threat by destroying those organisations completely.
If that is done the cycle of violence can end, but if there's a ceasefire then it is inevitable that the fighting will resume as without a lasting peace, without development, without opportunities people will see no alternative but to continue the violence.
Just as we pressed our advantages until the Nazis surrendered unconditionally.
Just as the Americans pressed theirs until the Japanese surrendered unconditionally.
Just as the Sri Lankans pressed theirs until the Tamil Tigers surrendered unconditionally.
Unconditional surrender ends wars.
As ever, the solution is millions more houses.
This is what Israel is pursuing. They just can’t say it
How much does Starmer need to declare as a benefit in kind for the Tory Conference? It must run to millions.
Say it isn't so.
The Tamils were internal terrorists within Sri Lanka
There are those intent on pursuing the elimination or expulsion of all Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank as a resolution to the conflict. But I don't think that's Netanyahu's motivation. Once the last Palestinian dies or is expelled from Gaza, and the war against Hamas that started last October ends, he faces some difficult legal issues. The last thing he wants is a resolution to the issue. On the contrary, he needs to prolong the conflict for as long as possible.
Defeating terrorists militarily by pursuing them aggressively until they surrender unconditionally has happened many times, the idea it can't happen is a complete fallacy that is belied by history.
Maternity pay is a side-show compared to this.
Today's Conservative Party:
"Immigration is too high"
"But our population is ageing, we need immigration"
"Nah, women need to have more kids"
"And we should encourage mums to stay at home to look after their kids"
"Yeah and slash maternity pay"
@Number10cat
If Badenoch gets elected as Tory leader every Labour MP is going to have to register it as a gift
@MrHarryCole
Kemi camp in full damage control mode now:
Source; “Infighting and internal conflicts helped take our party to an historic defeat. We need to be better, we need our politics to be better. Kemi obviously supports maternity pay and was making a case for lower regulation - something she always aimed for as business secretary. For other leadership campaigns to be seeking to use selective quotes from an interview to score political hits, shows they’re still wedded to the old politics and simply aren’t serious about getting back to government.”
Worth catching too.
As long as they exist there is absolutely zero chance of a 2 state solution since Hamas can not be allowed to have a state.
If Hamas are destroyed then and only then is there a chance of a 2 state solution. Then and only then can Gaza be rebuilt with Marshall-style aid. Then and only then can the cycle of violence be broken.
But the sine qua non is the unconditional surrender of Hamas and Hezbollah. If that happens, then peace is possible, but if it doesn't then there will be more terrorists no matter what Israel does.
A ceasefire today with Gaza left in the hands of Hamas, left blockaded, left with no hope and left in ruins just guarantees more hate, more terrorism and a return to violence as a matter of when, not if.
Highest profile Mormon to do so, I think.
Unless you deport or kill about 10 million people, we need millions more houses either way.
Migration just means we need millions more plus an extra hundred thousand plus per annum on top of that.
The Gaza Strip would make for some first class seaside real estate when redeveloped.
Tom Slater"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/09/28/led-by-pygmies/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg2y7wyx56o
I can see situations when I'm forced to defend or even vote Labour to stop it.
1. You could make it easier for women to have children on their own, without having a man around. Perhaps some sort of mutually supportive living arrangement for single mothers?
2. You could provide incentives to men to encourage them to settle down and have a family earlier. What about providing a pension boost to people who have contributed to creating the future generations that will provide for old people in their retirement?
3. You could provide incentives to encourage online dating sites to help people to form lasting relationships with other people, rather than a lasting commercial relationship with an online dating site. What if you were to provide maternity pay to online dating websites?
Massive debris flow traveling at lightning speed in eastern TN! The preceding drought conditions followed by days of rain ahead of Hurricane Helene set the stage. This is incredibly rapid for a debris flow.
https://x.com/ReedTimmerUSA/status/1840090638718579055
Because of the hostages embedded with Hamas and the tunnel system under civilian areas.
Is why they can't "do a Hezbollah" in Gaza.