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Donald Trump and knocking up the voters – politicalbetting.com

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  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,337
    edited September 2024
    Barnesian said:

    The next government depends most on what deal Farage strikes with the next Tory leader.

    If Farage is given a clear run in say 50 seats and gives the Tories a clear run in the rest then they may gain a majority between them.

    The next government will be Tory with Reform support, or Labour with LibDem support. 50/50 at the moment. I'm not betting yet.
    Tricky to set up.

    For a start, Farage taking on 50 seats means accepting that he is second banana on the right. That seems unlikely.

    More importantly, there is a slice of the Conservative electorate who stuck with the party in 2024 for whom a deal like that would be the last straw. Some of them are here.

    Having failed to strangle Reform at birth, the Conservatives are going to find them tricky to eradicate.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,294
    Has the SDP beaten AfD in the Brandenburg election? I thought I saw something posted on here earlier suggesting the opposite?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24315lrv18o

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/22/germany-brandenburg-state-election-afd-spd-exit-poll-latest-live-news-updates
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,655

    You do seem to be almost wilfully missing the point - this is all about Labour and nobody else
    It is said oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them, which fits your view here. But I think oppositions do need to look OK. The current Conservative Party crumbles after 5 seconds of attention on the subject of donations. The Conservative Party in 5 years time may be very different, of course. But I can't see them turning down all donations. Jenrick's latest declaration reports around £300k in donations, I think. Today journalists aren't paying any attention to that. If he's leader at the next general election and this is all still a story, they will.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,684
    TimS said:

    Today’s tally of Lib Dem corruption revelations: zero.

    Like yesterday’s. And tomorrow’s.

    Give it a couple of years:

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/d9e1c404-191c-11ea-a9c5-93ba951187e8?shareToken=cae155fad82946e19de82bc3bae37463
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,684
    carnforth said:

    Give it a couple of years:

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/d9e1c404-191c-11ea-a9c5-93ba951187e8?shareToken=cae155fad82946e19de82bc3bae37463
    Oh, plus the £4m they took from Michael Brown, who stole it. And their reason for not paying it back to make the victims whole was "we can't afford to".
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    @DawnButlerBrent
    We kicked off
    @UKLabour
    Conference in Liverpool with a bang!

    Lord Ali donated the 🎆 fireworks presumably
  • It is said oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them, which fits your view here. But I think oppositions do need to look OK. The current Conservative Party crumbles after 5 seconds of attention on the subject of donations. The Conservative Party in 5 years time may be very different, of course. But I can't see them turning down all donations. Jenrick's latest declaration reports around £300k in donations, I think. Today journalists aren't paying any attention to that. If he's leader at the next general election and this is all still a story, they will.
    It's a mistake to think that something that is an issue for one party is automatically an issue for another party just because they're guilty of the same things. People judge them according to different standards.

    For example sex scandals were an issue for the Tories in the 1990s because of the 'back to basics' rhetoric on family values. Labour weren't as vulnerable because they were perceived as less judgemental.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,922

    Your memory is a bit dodgy Tim. How many people called the 2024 GE correctly five years ago?
    I doubt anybody would have predicted any party winning other than Labour or Conservative. They might have not anticipated the shitting of the bed by the Tories, but they certainly wouldn’t have had the sheer range of options facing us in 2029.
  • Barnesian said:

    Nevada is only 6 EC. Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina are the ones to watch.

    Pennsylvania Kamala lead 1.5%
    Georgia Trump lead 1%
    North Carolina Trump lead 0.1%
    but the trend is to Kamala, and polls lag.
    In NC, full fallout re: Black Nazi allegedly fond of watersports as GOP gov nominee has yet to be reckoned methinks.

    Interesting (perhaps?) that there was a famous White Nazi allegedly fond of something similar.

    How many PBers are familiar with Kurt Vonegut's "Mother Night" which features (briefly) a character styled "the Black Hitler", who KV based (very loosely) on a real person

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sufi_Abdul_Hamid
  • "Minister: Let me eat cake"

    Daily Star
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Bridget Philipson claimed she was accepted free Taylor Swift ttickets. She attended as Education Secretary.

    When pushed she admitted she accepted them as it was hard to turn them down as her daughter was a fan.

    It's a fucking pandemic of greed
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,522

    Tricky to set up.

    For a start, Farage taking on 50 seats means accepting that he is second banana on the right. That seems unlikely.

    More importantly, there is a slice of the Conservative electorate who stuck with the party in 2024 for whom a deal like that would be the last straw. Some of them are here.

    Having failed to strangle Reform at birth, the Conservatives are going to find them tricky to eradicate.
    Reform will eradicate themselves. Big ego clashes of little men will ensure it.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,978
    edited September 2024
    mercator said:

    OW's grandson is still alive and only 72? OW died in 1900, coincidentally the year my paternal GF was born.

    The past is not dead. It's not even past.
    One of John Tyler's (10th USA President 1841-1845) grandsons is still with us.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Ruffin_Tyler
  • How does Rayner's RomCom NYE in a luxury NYC apartment help beat the Tories?
    Okay.

    It's possible he just wants to see the Tories defeated and he's very credulous.
  • Bridget Philipson claimed she was accepted free Taylor Swift ttickets. She attended as Education Secretary.

    When pushed she admitted she accepted them as it was hard to turn them down as her daughter was a fan.

    It's a fucking pandemic of greed

    £14,000 for two birthday parties with cake
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,655


    @DawnButlerBrent
    We kicked off
    @UKLabour
    Conference in Liverpool with a bang!

    Lord Ali donated the 🎆 fireworks presumably

    Hello bigjohnowls. Have I talked to you about Carla Denyer’s list of declared donations?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Has the SDP beaten AfD in the Brandenburg election? I thought I saw something posted on here earlier suggesting the opposite?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24315lrv18o

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/22/germany-brandenburg-state-election-afd-spd-exit-poll-latest-live-news-updates

    Said they hung on narrowly on 5 live
  • TimS said:

    Today’s tally of Lib Dem corruption revelations: zero.

    Like yesterday’s. And tomorrow’s.

    72 of them now. Some will fall foul.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,522

    So, if the parallel is Johnson, is the sensible play -- if we accept your thesis that Starmer is terrible at politics and fatally wounded -- to bet on next PM and pick someone Labour but who isn't associated with the current scandal?
    Someone outside the Cabinet then....
  • Hello bigjohnowls. Have I talked to you about Carla Denyer’s list of declared donations?
    Try as you might this is not about the Greens, but entirely Labour and what makes it worse is it is not just Starmer, but Rayner (who has been reported to the standards authorities tonight), Philipson, Lammy, Streeting and other cabinet members
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited September 2024
    ydoethur said:

    Q: Do you have an arsehole?

    Vance: I have something that may be full of shit, but is not necessarily an arsehole.
    Correction - as a proud American, JD Vance has an ASSHOLE. And is one too!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,431
    Boring alert! The same 4 or 5 dreary posters are still posting the same dross they have been for the last several days. I came on here because I was interested in the US elections. I guess others did too. Can't the obsessives have a separate thread?
  • TomWTomW Posts: 70
    Just watching netflix on the battle of orgreave in 1984.
    There is no way Thatcher could have got away with some of the things she did in the social media age.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Hello bigjohnowls. Have I talked to you about Carla Denyer’s list of declared donations?
    No what has she done?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,533


    @DawnButlerBrent
    We kicked off
    @UKLabour
    Conference in Liverpool with a bang!

    Lord Ali donated the 🎆 fireworks presumably

    Perhaps all party's should disclose big donors and interest groups in much more public fashion.

    The Conservative and Unionist Party brought to you by HC-One Care homes.

    The Labour Party sponsored by Legal and General.

    Burger King presents Reform UK.

    The Liberal Democrats - a division of CPRE Nimby Services

    The Green Party in collaboration with Comintern.
  • Roger said:

    Boring alert! The same 4 or 5 dreary posters are still posting the same dross they have been for the last several days. I came on here because I was interested in the US elections. I guess others did too. Can't the obsessives have a separate thread?

    Unfortunately for you this is the leading story in the UK media and when even Labour mps and unions are aghast trying to close down the story because you are upset by it will nor work

  • TomWTomW Posts: 70
    Barnesian said:

    Kamala is brighter than Trump, and Putin has no "material" on her, unlike Trump.
    Kamala may fall for Putins manly charms though.
  • TomW said:

    Kamala may fall for Putins manly charms though.
    Putin's getting on a bit. Why don't you think she'll be manipulated by Zelensky?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,177
    TimS said:

    I’ve no idea what your politics are, but everyone seems to have been very keen to explain how all this corruption means that the incorruptible, anti-elite Nigel is going to storm into power. While ignoring the actual 3rd party, as people have been wont to do since the dawn of time.
    Everyone? No.

    What it risks is an Italian style revolt against all the traditional parties. Bunga! Bunga!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,194
    IanB2 said:

    I’m now in sweltering NC, which is a swing state. Asheville tomorrow, which is where all the Dems hang out.


    That's a hell of a lot of driving.
  • Unfortunately for you this is the leading story in the UK media and when even Labour mps and unions are aghast trying to close down the story because you are upset by it will nor work

    If they have any sense they should use this opportunity to pass some legislation on restricting donations to political parties to £1,000 per person/company/organisation per year.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,177

    How does Rayner's RomCom NYE in a luxury NYC apartment help beat the Tories?
    A! forward! base! For! Plotting! The! revolution! Komrade!

    @{champagne not included for @kinabalu)
  • What is most disturbing is they have been gifts to individuals. That is exactly what creates a sense of obligation. Give it to a central fund and people feel less of a personal sense of duty to do favours in return
    That might not hold up if you compare the list of donors to Conservative Party funds with the current membership of the House of Lords.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,177
    Roger said:

    Boring alert! The same 4 or 5 dreary posters are still posting the same dross they have been for the last several days. I came on here because I was interested in the US elections. I guess others did too. Can't the obsessives have a separate thread?

    That’s a bingo!

    We have

    - Everyone is talking about the wrong story
    - Only opponents are talking about the story
    - And now we have, boring
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Sometimes Democrats are their own worst enemy .

    California Dems seem to have ignored the fact that this is an election year and voted through a raft of legislation which would give Trump and the GOP an open goal .

    Newsom has vetoed the first Bill re help to buy for undocumented workers . An even more head in the sand bill aimed at giving non-citizens unemployment benefit has to either be signed into law or vetoed by September 30th .

    This Bill would be an absolute gift to Trump. Unless Newsom wants the Dems to lose then he’ll wield another veto .

    Newsom implored the Dems to not pass controversial legislation but that’s fallen on deaf ears .

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,431

    Unfortunately for you this is the leading story in the UK media and when even Labour mps and unions are aghast trying to close down the story because you are upset by it will nor work

    If its the biggest story you should find lots of places to read about it and you can write letters at the bottom of the page with like minded obsessives. This is supposed to be about the US elections and people like you are making it unreadable which is why only the usual five or six terminally dull are taking part
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,177

    If they have any sense they should use this opportunity to pass some legislation on restricting donations to political parties to £1,000 per person/company/organisation per year.
    Cameron wanted to do that, but Labour wanted an exemption for unions.

    I nearly started the National Union of Amalgamated Hedge Fund Owners & Boilermakers.

    With designer stainless steel oil drums for braziers on the picket lines - each one hand crafted by a master Calypso drum maker.

    Turnbull & Asser would do the road mender style jerkins…..
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Bridget Philipson claimed she was accepted free Taylor Swift ttickets. She attended as Education Secretary.

    When pushed she admitted she accepted them as it was hard to turn them down as her daughter was a fan.

    It's a fucking pandemic of greed

    Bridget Philipson claimed she was accepted free Taylor Swift ttickets. She attended as Education Secretary.

    When pushed she admitted she accepted them as it was hard to turn them down as her daughter was a fan.

    It's a fucking pandemic of greed

    Try as you might this is not about the Greens, but entirely Labour and what makes it worse is it is not just Starmer, but Rayner (who has been reported to the standards authorities tonight), Philipson, Lammy, Streeting and other cabinet members
    When you say “try as you might” do you actually “me and some in the media want it to be entirely about Labour”? Because donations and gifts aren’t unique to Labour, far from it.
  • TomWTomW Posts: 70

    Putin's getting on a bit. Why don't you think she'll be manipulated by Zelensky?
    I think we all know Zelensky has tendencies the other way.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,648

    "Minister: Let me eat cake"

    Daily Star

    That old Brass Eye which spoofed ‘cake’ as a new problem drug was actually prophetic.
  • Roger said:

    If its the biggest story you should find lots of places to read about it and you can write letters at the bottom of the page with like minded obsessives. This is supposed to be about the US elections and people like you are making it unreadable which is why only the usual five or six terminally dull are taking part
    Typical lefty - hates the story so try to shut it down

    So no @Roger you will not silence me or other posters in discussing the leadng political story of the day

  • nico679 said:

    Sometimes Democrats are their own worst enemy .

    California Dems seem to have ignored the fact that this is an election year and voted through a raft of legislation which would give Trump and the GOP an open goal .

    Newsom has vetoed the first Bill re help to buy for undocumented workers . An even more head in the sand bill aimed at giving non-citizens unemployment benefit has to either be signed into law or vetoed by September 30th .

    This Bill would be an absolute gift to Trump. Unless Newsom wants the Dems to lose then he’ll wield another veto .

    Newsom implored the Dems to not pass controversial legislation but that’s fallen on deaf ears .

    While agreeing with Gov. Newsom re: above, think you are significantly overestimating the impact of ANY newly-enacted California state legislation upon national voting intensions.

    Which outside the Great Bear Republic is pretty much nil. Ditto for GOPs chances of winning statewide for POTUS, US Senate or any other office.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,533

    Typical lefty - hates the story so try to shut it down

    That is really not a lefty specific behaviour. It's political behaviour.
  • When you say “try as you might” do you actually “me and some in the media want it to be entirely about Labour”? Because donations and gifts aren’t unique to Labour, far from it.
    Another one who doesn't get it but the public do

    This is all about Labour - the conservatives have already paid the price for their misdemeanours

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,078
    TomW said:

    Kamala may fall for Putins manly charms though.
    "Excuse me. I'm speaking".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,533

    Cameron wanted to do that, but Labour wanted an exemption for unions.

    I nearly started the National Union of Amalgamated Hedge Fund Owners & Boilermakers.

    With designer stainless steel oil drums for braziers on the picket lines - each one hand crafted by a master Calypso drum maker.

    Turnbull & Asser would do the road mender style jerkins…..
    I'd say you can raise to about 10k for organisations/unions, 1k for individuals.

    They don't need to be such massive organisations.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,177
    edited September 2024
    TomW said:

    I think we all know Zelensky has tendencies the other way.
    Is that what you discuss in your not-gay sessions, in the showers with the lads, after the gym?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    While agreeing with Gov. Newsom re: above, think you are significantly overestimating the impact of ANY newly-enacted California state legislation upon national voting intensions.

    Which outside the Great Bear Republic is pretty much nil. Ditto for GOPs chances of winning statewide for POTUS, US Senate or any other office.
    I disagree . Trump will say Harris will try and enact this nationally and it will serve as a magnet to migrants. With such small margins in the swing states you can’t afford those types of mistakes . Anyway I’d be shocked if Newsom doesn’t veto this .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,450
    edited September 2024

    If they have any sense they should use this opportunity to pass some legislation on restricting donations to political parties to £1,000 per person/company/organisation per year.
    The concern is always that us the taxpayer will ultimately ending having to pay to fund politician parties.

    I think personal donations look worse than party donations as its personal enrichment rather than keeping the party machine going. However, I don't really begrudge an MP getting the odd ticket to something e.g. tickets to the an England footy game from the FA, but it gets a lot stinkier when as we saw with Blair and Boris, basically every holiday was a donation or some MPs are definitely getting lobbied e.g. we have seen certain MPs being consistently entertained by betting industry at all the big horse racing festivals.

    Perhaps a cap / limited categories of freebies that are allowed to an individual.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,533

    The concern is always that us the taxpayer will ultimately ending having to pay to fund politician parties.

    I think personal donations look worse than party donations as its personal enrichment rather than getting the party machine going. However, I don't really begrudge an MP getting the odd ticket to something e.g. tickets to the odd England footy game etc, but it gets a lot stinkier when as we saw with Blair and Boris, basically every holiday was a donation or some MPs are definitely getting lobbied e.g. we have seen certain MPs being consistently entertained by betting industry at things like horse racing festivals.

    Perhaps a cap / limited categories of freebies that are allowed to an individual.
    The occasional concert or sports ticket is fine, but the amounts able to be received are just silly, it definitely needs an overhaul, so a cap of some kind seems reasonable without doing away with it entirely.
  • IanB2 said:

    I’m now in sweltering NC, which is a swing state. Asheville tomorrow, which is where all the Dems hang out.


    "All the Dems" hang out in Asheville? That's bunk . . . or rather Buncombe (County).

    Check out Chapel Hill, Charlotte, Winston-Salem, Raleigh, Fayettville, etc. etc. to find more Tarheel Democrats!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,648
    Trump posted a photoshopped image of Kamala Harris with Diddy yesterday. The original pic was with Monte Williams.

    NO network media has reported on it.

    https://x.com/RexChapman/status/1837915143138955275

    Of course.
    Getty has 202 photos of Donald with him alone.
    https://x.com/Morgan_C_Ross/status/1837934796414353714

    “What was it that first attracted you to the alleged sex trafficker ?”
  • The concern is always that us the taxpayer will ultimately ending having to pay to fund politician parties.

    I think personal donations look worse than party donations as its personal enrichment rather than getting the party machine going. However, I don't really begrudge an MP getting the odd ticket to something e.g. tickets to the odd England footy game etc, but it gets a lot stinkier when as we saw with Blair and Boris, basically every holiday was a donation or some MPs are definitely getting lobbied e.g. we have seen certain MPs being consistently entertained by betting industry at things like horse racing festivals.

    Perhaps a cap / limited categories of freebies that are allowed to an individual.
    It is fairly clear the taxpayer cost of delivering the quid for the quo to political donors far exceeds the cost of running the political parties. Otherwise the elite wouldn't be paying for the bungs, sorry, donations.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,648

    Another one who doesn't get it but the public do

    This is all about Labour - the conservatives have already paid the price for their misdemeanours

    No, that was just a first installment.
  • TomWTomW Posts: 70

    Is that what you discuss in your not-gay sessions, in the showers with the lads, after the gym?
    Not Zelensky especially but there are 1 or 2 known faces in our gym with tendencies the other way. Still live and let live eh.
  • The AI subtitles were definitely struggling with the accent!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,431
    edited September 2024

    Typical lefty - hates the story so try to shut it down

    So no @Roger you will not silence me or other posters in discussing the leadng political story of the day

    I don't think anyone gives a shit whether she got a ticket to see Taylor Swift. Are you suggesting she bought influence? Has no one ever given you a ticket to a concert or a theatre or a film or a football match? Really?

    .......Probably not or you'd bore them to death and you'd spoil their evening
  • Nigelb said:

    Trump posted a photoshopped image of Kamala Harris with Diddy yesterday. The original pic was with Monte Williams.

    NO network media has reported on it.

    https://x.com/RexChapman/status/1837915143138955275

    Of course.
    Getty has 202 photos of Donald with him alone.
    https://x.com/Morgan_C_Ross/status/1837934796414353714

    “What was it that first attracted you to the alleged sex trafficker ?”

    Reckon Trump was MOST impressed, by previous triumph of MAGA photo-shoppers re: Taylor Swift?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    Roger said:

    I don't think anyone gives a shit whether she got a ticket to see Taylor Swift. Are you suggesting she bought influence? Has no one ever given you a ticket to a concert or a theatre or a film or a football match? Really?

    .......Probably not or you'd bore them to death and you'd spoil their evening
    Come off it, Roger. Someone gifting another private citizen something is not the same as gifting a member of the cabinet or shadow cabinet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    The key will be whether those activists will be out on polling day as the unions will certainly be out knocking up for the Democrats.

    Though Trump may hope his rallies will be enough to motivate his voters to the polls
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,450
    edited September 2024
    Doesn't everybody get £15k for their birthday party from the bosses mate?
  • carnforth said:

    Oh, plus the £4m they took from Michael Brown, who stole it. And their reason for not paying it back to make the victims whole was "we can't afford to".
    Didn’t they also say that “we took it in good faith - didn’t know it was stolen from pensioners”
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,684

    Didn’t they also say that “we took it in good faith - didn’t know it was stolen from pensioners”
    May not be legally Receiving Stolen Goods, but morally yes.

    They could have taken a bank loan and payed it back.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727
    Drinks with an old lefty friend tonight

    I was expecting either a mildly sturdy defence or a "whatever, early days, the Tories were worse" - basically MEH

    But no. He expressed absolute contempt and anger at Starmer and Co. This has cut through, even with loyal London lefites. His main complaint was the "naivety and stupidity". I would add the "greed" but still. Impact
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,684
    edited September 2024
    Leon said:

    Drinks with an old lefty friend tonight

    I was expecting either a mildly sturdy defence or a "whatever, early days, the Tories were worse" - basically MEH

    But no. He expressed absolute contempt and anger at Starmer and Co. This has cut through, even with loyal London lefites. His main complaint was the "naivety and stupidity". I would add the "greed" but still. Impact

    Corbyn lefty or not?
  • That might not hold up if you compare the list of donors to Conservative Party funds with the current membership of the House of Lords.
    Honestly? A bauble like a title is pretty meaningless in practice. It would be better if it was like a baronet rather than coming with a seat in the Lords but that could be fixed.

  • Leon said:

    Drinks with an old lefty friend tonight

    I was expecting either a mildly sturdy defence or a "whatever, early days, the Tories were worse" - basically MEH

    But no. He expressed absolute contempt and anger at Starmer and Co. This has cut through, even with loyal London lefites. His main complaint was the "naivety and stupidity". I would add the "greed" but still. Impact

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/PortalPictures/september-2024/2209-MATT-PORTAL-WEB-P1.png?imwidth=640
  • Roger said:

    I don't think anyone gives a shit whether she got a ticket to see Taylor Swift. Are you suggesting she bought influence? Has no one ever given you a ticket to a concert or a theatre or a film or a football match? Really?

    .......Probably not or you'd bore them to death and you'd spoil their evening
    Well the public are certainly unimpressed with just 7 % supporting the gifts of concert tickets
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Roger said:

    I don't think anyone gives a shit whether she got a ticket to see Taylor Swift. Are you suggesting she bought influence? Has no one ever given you a ticket to a concert or a theatre or a film or a football match? Really?

    .......Probably not or you'd bore them to death and you'd spoil their evening
    :D
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,431
    edited September 2024
    RobD said:

    Come off it, Roger. Someone gifting another private citizen something is not the same as gifting a member of the cabinet or shadow cabinet.
    Really? If you heard that Bridget Phillipson's daughter had an interest in brass bands and someone from the Treorchy male voice choir asked her to come to a concert in Penmaenmawr would you consider it improper? If so you have obviously never worked where these sort of social interactions take place.
  • Anyone who says "nobody cares" is a StarmTrooper
  • RobD said:

    Come off it, Roger. Someone gifting another private citizen something is not the same as gifting a member of the cabinet or shadow cabinet.
    As a matter of fact I have always paid to go to football and @Roger seems very upset and has become unnecessarily personal
  • TomWTomW Posts: 70
    Leon said:

    Drinks with an old lefty friend tonight

    I was expecting either a mildly sturdy defence or a "whatever, early days, the Tories were worse" - basically MEH

    But no. He expressed absolute contempt and anger at Starmer and Co. This has cut through, even with loyal London lefites. His main complaint was the "naivety and stupidity". I would add the "greed" but still. Impact

    Starmer has to be the most charmless pm ever. Yes Major was boring but you felt there was humanity there. With Starmer there is a void of
    nothingness.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    Roger said:

    Really? If you heard that Bridget Phillipson's daughter had an interest in brass bands and someone from the Treorchy male voice choir asked her to come to a concert in Penmaenmawr would you consider it a big deal? You have obviously never worked where these sort of social interactions take place.
    Well, yes, because gifting is a way of buying influence regardless of who is doing it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    RobD said:

    Well, yes, because gifting is a way of buying influence regardless of who is doing it.
    LOL
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727
    TomW said:

    Starmer has to be the most charmless pm ever. Yes Major was boring but you felt there was humanity there. With Starmer there is a void of
    nothingness.
    Yes, indeed

    As my mate and I agreed, the problem is Starmer hasn't got the charm - Blair - or the humour - Boris - to switch things around. He is a charmless humourless fuckwit who seems like a massively over-promoted middle-manager and with zero ideas as to how to fix the country. There is no there, there

    I dunno how Labour gets out of this. They are gonna lose badly in 2028-9 to a Reform Tory coalition, is my expectation
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    Activote California

    Harris 64% Trump 36%

    Slight swing to Trump from 2020 when he got 34% in California

    https://www.activote.net/harris-again-far-ahead-in-her-home-state/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_California
  • OK, betting question. If one is convinced that Starmer's government is toast after this, how should you bet? You can get 9/4 on Tories most seats at the next election or lay Labour for most seats at 1.99, but that's a while off. Is there a next Labour leader bet worth making? Reeves is joint favourite, albeit only at 8/1, but worth laying her? Or you can lay Reeves as next PM at 15. You can lay Rayner as next PM at 23.
    Oh that's easy. If you think Labour is stuffed by these donations, the answer is surely to lay whichever would-be Conservative leader has taken most money.

    Seriously.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,684
    If I were a minister, taking freebies and then resolutely refusing to be influenced by the donor would amuse me. Perhaps that's why I'm not a minister.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727
    carnforth said:

    Corbyn lefty or not?
    No, actually centre Left. Blairite/Starmerite. So that made it doubly surprising

    Also, the anger was REAL. Not so much at the "crime" but at the political ineptitude and associated chaos
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,304
    edited September 2024

    A new statue of Oscar Wild has been branded “absolutely hideous” by the writer’s grandson.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/22/oscar-wildes-family-criticise-hideous-new-statue-of-writer/

    Has the craft of sculpting been lost? Seem regular occurrence now they are bloody awful representations.

    Sir Eduardo died almost 20 years ago at the age of 81, so not exactly a young Turk kicking in the doors of the establishment.

    I quite like, it and I suspect Oscar wouldn’t have been totally dismayed.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,684
    Leon said:

    No, actually centre Left. Blairite/Starmerite. So that made it doubly surprising

    Also, the anger was REAL. Not so much at the "crime" but at the political ineptitude and associated chaos
    I was taken in by Starmer, thinking his ability to smack the Labour Party into shape meant he could do the same for the country. Apparently not.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232

    Reform will eradicate themselves. Big ego clashes of little men will ensure it.
    The Conservatives have failed. You are wishing Labour to fail, and they may oblige.

    Which offensive Nazi grifter is looking like the incorruptible King of clean at present?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,431

    LOL
    I've just realised I took a Cabinet Minister or dinner at Grouchos. Do you think that's worth a front page in the telegraph?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,634
    Leon said:

    Yes, indeed

    As my mate and I agreed, the problem is Starmer hasn't got the charm - Blair - or the humour - Boris - to switch things around. He is a charmless humourless fuckwit who seems like a massively over-promoted middle-manager and with zero ideas as to how to fix the country. There is no there, there

    I dunno how Labour gets out of this. They are gonna lose badly in 2028-9 to a Reform Tory coalition, is my expectation
    I still enjoy that various techie Discord servers I'm on represent Starmer as a '❔' emoji. Even the Americans have picked up on it.
  • You have a cross country, Sir Keir
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,450
    edited September 2024
    Roger said:

    I've just realised I took a Cabinet Minister or dinner at Grouchos. Do you think that's worth a front page in the telegraph?
    Depends, did you then offer them £100k's worth of freebies?

  • @DawnButlerBrent
    We kicked off
    @UKLabour
    Conference in Liverpool with a bang!

    Lord Ali donated the 🎆 fireworks presumably

    Snide ones with delayed ignition that go off in your face.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727
    Roger said:

    I don't think anyone gives a shit whether she got a ticket to see Taylor Swift. Are you suggesting she bought influence? Has no one ever given you a ticket to a concert or a theatre or a film or a football match? Really?

    .......Probably not or you'd bore them to death and you'd spoil their evening
    Yes, but you are literally the stupidest person on this forum. As in, you have the lowest IQ. You are a fucking dumb fuck who went to Millfield. If you were a member of the genus Equus, you would be a beach donkey in Blackpool regularly sodomised by an unwashed kebab shop worker, and tolerating it, just because that is as good as it gets, as far as you can see
  • Seattle Times (via Washington Post) - For 57 days this fall, Earth will have a second moon

    For the next two months, an unusual object about the size of a bus will be orbiting above our heads. Say hello to Earth’s temporary new mini-moon.

    From Sept. 29 to Nov. 25, a passing asteroid will be pulled in by Earth’s gravity — sort of like a window shopper — before returning to its normal orbit around the sun. Objects that get captured by our gravitational force for a short time are known as mini-moons. This one, named asteroid 2024 PT5, came from the Arjuna asteroid belt near our sun, about 93 million miles away.

    SSI - Is THIS the much-hearlded "October Surprise" for 2024?

    And IF so, is it a Harris Moon . . . or a MAGA Death Star . . .
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,634
    Roger said:

    I don't think anyone gives a shit whether she got a ticket to see Taylor Swift. Are you suggesting she bought influence? Has no one ever given you a ticket to a concert or a theatre or a film or a football match? Really?

    .......Probably not or you'd bore them to death and you'd spoil their evening
    An office admin who visited Hong Kong once brought me a 'Hello Kitty' keyring. I managed not to blub in thanks, and for evermore sorted out her IT issues as best I could.

    So yes, I am as guilty as a PM or cabinet minister who has taken 10-100k in gifts. It's all relative.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited September 2024
    Final seats allocation in Brandenburg. 88 seats available with 45 needed for a majority.

    SPD 32
    AfD 30
    BSW 14
    CDU 12

    https://wahlergebnisse.brandenburg.de/12/500/20240922/landtagswahl_land/ergebnisse.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    'Starmer eyes ex-Tory minister David Gauke for sentencing review role'
    https://x.com/ObserverUK/status/1837559809912238280
  • Andy_JS said:

    Final seats allocation in Brandenburg. 88 seats available with 45 needed for a majority.

    SPD 32
    AfD 30
    BSW 14
    CDU 12

    https://wahlergebnisse.brandenburg.de/12/500/20240922/landtagswahl_land/ergebnisse.html

    So that’s Centrist 44, Loonies 44
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232

    LOL
    This place is f*****' insane.

    The hyperbole over Taylor Swift tickets and a box at the Emirates is being painted as substantially more corrupt than other freebies available to members of other parties, and more particularly genuine instances of industrial scale corruption. Corruption like PPE fast lane contracts, like bestowing seats in the House of Lords to the sons of KGB spies, a spy who's bunga, bunga party a serving Foreign Secretary without their close protection unit attended, or taking a ten grand donation on behalf of the Conservative Party for overruling legitimate objections to Richard Desmond's planning applications.

    Oh and why is it OK for Frank Hester to single -handedly bankroll the Conservative Party and Alii cannot buy Mrs Starmer a frock or throw a lavish birthday party for a friend?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    edited September 2024
    Leon said:

    Yes, indeed

    As my mate and I agreed, the problem is Starmer hasn't got the charm - Blair - or the humour - Boris - to switch things around. He is a charmless humourless fuckwit who seems like a massively over-promoted middle-manager and with zero ideas as to how to fix the country. There is no there, there

    I dunno how Labour gets out of this. They are gonna lose badly in 2028-9 to a Reform Tory coalition, is my expectation
    I wouldn't be sure, the LDs will likely hold the bluewall against a Jenrick or Badenoch led Tory Party even if the Tories and Farage's Reform regain the redwall and most Leave voting marginal seats that voted for Boris in 2019 but went Labour in July.

    So at worst for Starmer Labour it ends up a hung parliament, probably with the LDs holding the balance of power
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,177

    This place is f*****' insane.

    The hyperbole over Taylor Swift tickets and a box at the Emirates is being painted as substantially more corrupt than other freebies available to members of other parties, and more particularly genuine instances of industrial scale corruption. Corruption like PPE fast lane contracts, like bestowing seats in the House of Lords to the sons of KGB spies, a spy who's bunga, bunga party a serving Foreign Secretary without their close protection unit attended, or taking a ten grand donation on behalf of the Conservative Party for overruling legitimate objections to Richard Desmond's planning applications.

    Oh and why is it OK for Frank Hester to single -handedly bankroll the Conservative Party and Alii cannot buy Mrs Starmer a frock or throw a lavish birthday party for a friend?
    It depends whether you think getting 23.7% or less at the next election is the target.
This discussion has been closed.