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As can be seen male voters account for more than 50% of each party’s support with, not unexpectedly, UKIP showing the biggest divide. What is striking is that although the overall sample is weighted properly for gender balance when it comes to the output figures there are 11 men for every 9 women.
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First!0
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Good spot!0
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So the Labour figure is unlikely to be far out due to gender balance, but Tory percentage could be skewed a bit, SNP and LD more so, but UKIP would be most affected.
Is there any academic research to back up this theory?0 -
Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?0
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Isn't trying to identify the best product at the best price a worthwhile activity?DavidL said:Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?
I have a bridge to sell...you interested?0 -
Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.0
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Charles..DavidLs wife might be..she has a few others to look at first.
Do you deliver?.0 -
Naturally. Just a small additional shipping & handling chargerichardDodd said:Charles..DavidLs wife might be..she has a few others to look at first.
Do you deliver?.
(Although, as an aside, in the pursuit of inter-departmental connectivty, we've just agreed to build a bridge connecting the two halves of the University of Buckingham campus)0 -
How long before a Kipper complains this is all part of the LibLabCon Media Establishment plot to do down UKIP?0
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So are pollsters supposed to guess how the women will vote?0
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Isn’t that the way all women shop? And isn’t it alleged to go back to hunter-gatherer learned activities? Man .... see deer, raise bow, shoot. Woman ..... see fruits, check to see if better elsewhere, eventually go back to first tree.DavidL said:Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?
As I say, allegedly.
I recall reading somewhere that the trick is to look at three things, then go back and buy the second.0 -
You might have noticed that most kippers dont care, mostly because their vote isn't moving in any appreciably way, if it actually started dropping noticeably they might care, but its all MoE, and the overall trend this year has been up.CarlottaVance said:How long before a Kipper complains this is all part of the LibLabCon Media Establishment plot to do down UKIP?
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Good morning, everyone.
A sound point made by Mr. Smithson. I wonder if age is similarly affected.0 -
Charles..do you have one in a Cerise or washed out yellow colour...0
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Labour document on immigration is leaked: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30474521
UKIP will make great hay with that.0 -
The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.tlg86 said:Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.0 -
Fair enough. It does feel like OGH's clutching at straws though.logical_song said:
The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.tlg86 said:Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.
Also is the uncertainty in one direction? That is, could their vote share actually be higher than the polls?0 -
The article also raises the question about what the percentage of Don’t Know’s actually is.0
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Whatever it takes... ;-)richardDodd said:Charles..do you have one in a Cerise or washed out yellow colour...
(About to take off for lunch in the south of France)0 -
We may be married to the same woman. Does she also have an incredible gift of hindsight ?DavidL said:Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?
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They are complain its been 'taken out of context' - tough to maintain when people have the whole document!Morris_Dancer said:Labour document on immigration is leaked: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30474521
UKIP will make great hay with that.
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Morning all,
Interesting article. I've always felt undecided women play a big part in the final days of a campaign. Back in 1992 I knew Kinnock had lost on the morning when a friend's wife, who was very apolitical generally, but had been swinging towards Labour during the campaign announced she was definitely voting Tory.0 -
FPT, Jason Smith, I doubt if a man asking a woman online for sex really counts as a scandal, in this day and age. At least he had the good taste not to post photographs of his bits and pieces, a la Brooks Newmark.0
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Not always, Charles you should also take in to account the opportunity cost of your time. You being a banker that's probably not worth a lot ;-)Charles said:
Isn't trying to identify the best product at the best price a worthwhile activity?DavidL said:Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?
I have a bridge to sell...you interested?0 -
This leaked Labour document on immigration seems quite sensible ...
"It says the issue could be "unhelpful" and may risk losing votes."
Stating the bleeding obvious, in fact, so I'm surprised they spelled it out. Why not say "Let's talk about the NHS instead" while they're teaching their granny to suck eggs.
I still think that virtually all publicity is good publicity for Ukip, even when Ed makes overtures to their voters, because Labour aren't really trusted on immigration. Surely they'd be better sticking to a consistent line rather than being seen to mouth a few platitudes? I understand their strategy; they're hoping that potential switchers will give them the benefit of the doubt. But it increases the salience.
Even things like the Sydney cafe siege is unhelpful to Labour even though their worst enemy can't blame them for that.0 -
Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....0 -
OGH seems remarkably unbiased in his reporting despite his open acknowledgement of the way he votes. Since this is a betting website, it would not be advisable to wear orange, blue, green, red or purple tinted glasses since you would end up losing money.tlg86 said:
Fair enough. It does feel like OGH's clutching at straws though.logical_song said:
The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.tlg86 said:Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.
Also is the uncertainty in one direction? That is, could their vote share actually be higher than the polls?
The uncertainty could be in either direction, the question is do you want to bet on it being higher?0 -
So now we see Labour officially back simply ignoring immigration, one of the biggest two issues for British voters. They are completely in hoc to the immigrant lobby. They care more about groups that want to bring in brides from the subcontinent than the white working class seeing their wages undermined. First its the endorsement of anti-white employment preferences and now its the attempt to bury immigration as an issue.
Why? Because they instinctively dislike English culture, from the flag-waving white van man to the church-attending Anglican to the middle class land-owner. Ed Miliband has been brought up in an anti-English household and now he's trying to take that philosophy into government.0 -
*** Tin Foil Hat Alert ***CarlottaVance said:How long before a Kipper complains this is all part of the LibLabCon Media Establishment plot to do down UKIP?
It does seem pretty consistent, especially by people who you'd think would be affected by a change in the political landscape.
Perhaps the legacy parties and BBC are scared they will held to account for all the child abuse they have tolerated over the years (Rotherham, Rochdale, Savile). They are all in it together, so to speak, but UKIP are unblemished(!) insofar as they've never been in power anywhere.0 -
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The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....0 -
You advised other not to let their prejudice to get in the way.. You would be well advised to take your own advice.Socrates said:So now we see Labour officially back simply ignoring immigration, one of the biggest two issues for British voters. They are completely in hoc to the immigrant lobby. They care more about groups that want to bring in brides from the subcontinent than the white working class seeing their wages undermined. First its the endorsement of anti-white employment preferences and now its the attempt to bury immigration as an issue.
Why? Because they instinctively dislike English culture, from the flag-waving white van man to the church-attending Anglican to the middle class land-owner. Ed Miliband has been brought up in an anti-English household and now he's trying to take that philosophy into government.
I cant stand Miliband, but even I can see that what you have written is utter bollocks.0 -
Feel free to post my comment and I will justify it.CarlottaVance said:0 -
So after this leak, does anyone really think Ed "forgot" to mention immigration in his speech? When will the leak happen advising Labour candidates to "forget" to talk about the deficit?
No wonder they are worried about losing their heartlands when they have nothing to say about people's concerns. And this is why I remain convinced that Labour are going to have a mare of an election campaign, when the media relentlessly turns the conversation to topics where Labour has walked off the field of battle.0 -
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The trick is to think about what you want in advance, find something that suffices and then go home. As I said I think there may well be a link to men's views on political parties.OldKingCole said:
Isn’t that the way all women shop? And isn’t it alleged to go back to hunter-gatherer learned activities? Man .... see deer, raise bow, shoot. Woman ..... see fruits, check to see if better elsewhere, eventually go back to first tree.DavidL said:Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?
As I say, allegedly.
I recall reading somewhere that the trick is to look at three things, then go back and buy the second.0 -
Absolutely, particularly in relation to things I have attempted which were never going to work. Obviously.Alanbrooke said:
We may be married to the same woman. Does she also have an incredible gift of hindsight ?DavidL said:Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?
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This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....0 -
Maybe Isam should go for Basildon South. He'd be vastly better than the other three.CarlottaVance said:Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383
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I note with much mirth that it wasn't the Libservative MSM that taped the call butCarlottaVance said:Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383
"The recording was not made by a journalist but allegedly by an ally of fellow UKIP Essex candidate Tim Aker."
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I'm sure when it comes to betting OGH very much leaves emotion at the door. His articles, on the other hand, continually claim that Ukip's won't do that well.logical_song said:
OGH seems remarkably unbiased in his reporting despite his open acknowledgement of the way he votes. Since this is a betting website, it would not be advisable to wear orange, blue, green, red or purple tinted glasses since you would end up losing money.tlg86 said:
Fair enough. It does feel like OGH's clutching at straws though.logical_song said:
The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.tlg86 said:Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.
Also is the uncertainty in one direction? That is, could their vote share actually be higher than the polls?
The uncertainty could be in either direction, the question is do you want to bet on it being higher?
If he genuinely believes that he should put his money where is mouth is and sell Ukip on the exchange.
Personally I don't expect Ukip to do that well - certainly not in terms of seats - but Ukip won't be going away after the election, that I am certain of.0 -
@SquareRoot
It's not prejudice - it's a view formed by the evidence.
(1) We know this contempt for the English has a long history on the left. Orwell himself stated:
"England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals are ashamed of their own nationality. In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution."
(2) We know such sentiments still exist widely on the Left. From comments like Jack Straw (“The English are potentially very aggressive, very violent"), Diane Abbott ("White people love to play divide and rule") and George Monbiot ("England is dysfunctional, corrupt and vastly unequal. Who on earth would want to be tied to such a country?"
(3) We know that such beliefs were felt strongly by Ed Miliband's father:
"The Englishman is a rabid nationalist. They are perhaps the most nationalist people in the world . . . you sometimes want them almost to lose (the war) to show them how things are. They have the greatest contempt for the Continent . . . To lose their empire would be the worst possible humiliation."
"'Eton and Harrow, Oxford and Cambridge, the great Clubs, the Times, the Church, the Army, the respectable Sunday papers . . . It also means the values . . . of the ruling orders, keep the workers in their place...Also respectability, good taste, don't rock the boat, there will always be an England"
(4) We know that Ed Miliband is enamoured with his father and his political philosophy. He has stated his leadership is the "ultimate tribute" to Ralph Milband and wants to "bring back socialism" to honour him. He could not even trust his brother David, so he ran for the leadership to "'achieve his father's vision and ensure David Miliband did not traduce it".
(5) We have a long list of policies backed by Ed Miliband which show his contempt for the indigenous English:
- A refusal to do anything to reduce immigration
- No English parliament, despite strong backing for Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish assemblies
- Endorsement of discrimination against white English people in the job market
- Continued support for one way influence of Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish MPs on English matters
- An attempt to avoid speaking about immigration as a political issue, despite being in the top 1-2 concerns of the white working class
- England not counted as a nation in his proposed "Senate of the Nations and Regions"
- Participating in the conspiracy of silence about thousands of white English kids getting abused by Pakistani, Afghan and Somali rapists on our streets0 -
"The man in charge of vetting UKIP's election candidates was reported to have complained that "half my time is spent weeding out the lunatics"."CarlottaVance said:Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383
Perhaps he should work twice as hard and make it a full-time job?
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Indeede, Mr L. As a man you think like that, I’m about to do some Christmas shopping and I think like that, but do our wives? Going shopping with my wife, especially when it’s presents for the grandchildren is a nightmare!DavidL said:
The trick is to think about what you want in advance, find something that suffices and then go home. As I said I think there may well be a link to men's views on political parties.OldKingCole said:
Isn’t that the way all women shop? And isn’t it alleged to go back to hunter-gatherer learned activities? Man .... see deer, raise bow, shoot. Woman ..... see fruits, check to see if better elsewhere, eventually go back to first tree.DavidL said:Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?
As I say, allegedly.
I recall reading somewhere that the trick is to look at three things, then go back and buy the second.
The upside is that she doesn’t like me going shopping with her, so doesn’t encourage it!
Politically, to be fair, she’s much of a mind with me. Doesn’t like the Tories, can’t stand UKIP, feels let down by the LD’s but doesn’t see what Labour’s going to do.0 -
I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.Moses_ said:
This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....0 -
I think Socrates is broadly correct. The Left, and Ed in particualr, are no friends to the basic notion of English national pride and will actively seek to supress the emergence of England as a political entity.0
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While that wouldn't be difficult - I'm sure Isam would be a much better candidate!Sean_F said:
Maybe Isam should go for Basildon South. He'd be vastly better than the other three.CarlottaVance said:Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383
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But no doubt Ed will look at the van-driving winner of The X Factor with pride.....Patrick said:I think Socrates is broadly correct. The Left, and Ed in particualr, are no friends to the basic notion of English national pride and will actively seek to supress the emergence of England as a political entity.
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As long as he can stay off strong medication he's got a chance of doing it (surviving in place until the GE)CarlottaVance said:
While that wouldn't be difficult - I'm sure Isam would be a much better candidate!Sean_F said:
Maybe Isam should go for Basildon South. He'd be vastly better than the other three.CarlottaVance said:Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383
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What like Anders Breivik and the wider culture of people who are always banging on about immigration? Like that?Socrates said:
I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.Moses_ said:
This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....0 -
No, like Anders Breivik and white supremacist neo-fascism. The vast, vast majority of people that have concerns about immigration abhor violence and the targeting of innocents. Shame on you to suggest they're connected.glw said:
What like Anders Breivik and the wider culture of people who are always banging on about immigration? Like that?Socrates said:
I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.Moses_ said:
This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....0 -
Mr. glw, Breivik was a lone lunatic. There's the Sydney hostage situation, Lee Rigby's murder, 7/7, the Madrid train bombing, and 9/11 that all spring to mind from Islamic terrorism, not forgetting the perpetual cauldron of war crimes that is ISIS.0
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This is interesting. It's always possible, of course, that we might see differential turnout between the sexes. Alienation may cause men to vote for silly parties and women simply not to vote.0
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I'd be amazed if UKIP polled above 13% and won more than 5 seats, but I'd expect the party to continue its advance after the next election. By 2020, i'd expect them to be well into four figures, in terms of council seats, and have seats in the Welsh and London Assemblies.tlg86 said:
I'm sure when it comes to betting OGH very much leaves emotion at the door. His articles, on the other hand, continually claim that Ukip's won't do that well.logical_song said:
OGH seems remarkably unbiased in his reporting despite his open acknowledgement of the way he votes. Since this is a betting website, it would not be advisable to wear orange, blue, green, red or purple tinted glasses since you would end up losing money.tlg86 said:
Fair enough. It does feel like OGH's clutching at straws though.logical_song said:
The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.tlg86 said:Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.
Also is the uncertainty in one direction? That is, could their vote share actually be higher than the polls?
The uncertainty could be in either direction, the question is do you want to bet on it being higher?
If he genuinely believes that he should put his money where is mouth is and sell Ukip on the exchange.
Personally I don't expect Ukip to do that well - certainly not in terms of seats - but Ukip won't be going away after the election, that I am certain of.0 -
A rather lame comparison. I am sure with a moments thought people can identify an extremists that bangs on about benefits, bankers, the environment or what ever, that doesn't mean that all Tories, Labour or Green Party members agree with every aspect of their beliefsglw said:
What like Anders Breivik and the wider culture of people who are always banging on about immigration? Like that?Socrates said:
I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.Moses_ said:
This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....
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Mr. Antifrank, a fair comment to suggest apathy/alienation with politics may cause different groups to react differently.0
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Alastair Campbell tweeted: Good morning @Nigel_Farage - just taken my medication, now off out to abuse anyone who looks, you know, a bit foreign, or campTGOHF said:
As long as he can stay off strong medication he's got a chance of doing it (surviving in place until the GE)CarlottaVance said:
While that wouldn't be difficult - I'm sure Isam would be a much better candidate!Sean_F said:
Maybe Isam should go for Basildon South. He'd be vastly better than the other three.CarlottaVance said:Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383
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For the weekday crowd, I put a post up on Saturday on the Conservative/Labour battleground:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/testing-boundaries-1-conservatives-vs.html0 -
A bit tame for Campbell surely? Doesn't he usually just invade their countries?CarlottaVance said:
Alastair Campbell tweeted: Good morning @Nigel_Farage - just taken my medication, now off out to abuse anyone who looks, you know, a bit foreign, or campTGOHF said:
As long as he can stay off strong medication he's got a chance of doing it (surviving in place until the GE)CarlottaVance said:
While that wouldn't be difficult - I'm sure Isam would be a much better candidate!Sean_F said:
Maybe Isam should go for Basildon South. He'd be vastly better than the other three.CarlottaVance said:Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-304763830 -
The parties behave similarly when faced with difficult issues they cant solve. The "sensible" parties either lie about it (no ifs, no buts) or pretends it doesn't exist (labour not talking about the deficit or, now apparently, immigration). The "silly" parties attempt to sell simplistic solutions (UKIP on immigration, Greens on the bankrupt the country environmental policies). I am not sure which is worse to be honest.antifrank said:This is interesting. It's always possible, of course, that we might see differential turnout between the sexes. Alienation may cause men to vote for silly parties and women simply not to vote.
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So what wider culture are you connecting this current incident to? We know bugger all about what is going on, and yet you have apparently already joined the dots to figure it all out. Shame on you right back at you.Socrates said:
No, like Anders Breivik and white supremacist neo-fascism. The vast, vast majority of people that have concerns about immigration abhor violence and the targeting of innocents. Shame on you to suggest they're connected.glw said:
What like Anders Breivik and the wider culture of people who are always banging on about immigration? Like that?Socrates said:
I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.Moses_ said:
This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....
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After 2015 we may have a Labour party led by someone other than Ed. Or we may have the LibDems led by someone other than Nick. In either case I would expect UKIP to drop back below 5%.Sean_F said:
I'd be amazed if UKIP polled above 13% and won more than 5 seats, but I'd expect the party to continue its advance after the next election. By 2020, i'd expect them to be well into four figures, in terms of council seats, and have seats in the Welsh and London Assemblies.tlg86 said:
I'm sure when it comes to betting OGH very much leaves emotion at the door. His articles, on the other hand, continually claim that Ukip's won't do that well.logical_song said:
OGH seems remarkably unbiased in his reporting despite his open acknowledgement of the way he votes. Since this is a betting website, it would not be advisable to wear orange, blue, green, red or purple tinted glasses since you would end up losing money.tlg86 said:
Fair enough. It does feel like OGH's clutching at straws though.logical_song said:
The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.tlg86 said:Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.
Also is the uncertainty in one direction? That is, could their vote share actually be higher than the polls?
The uncertainty could be in either direction, the question is do you want to bet on it being higher?
If he genuinely believes that he should put his money where is mouth is and sell Ukip on the exchange.
Personally I don't expect Ukip to do that well - certainly not in terms of seats - but Ukip won't be going away after the election, that I am certain of.
However if the coalition continues and Ed stays in place (or Labour elect someone equally uninspiring) then UKIP could flourish. That's unless their internal feuds blow them apart, as quite often happens on the right.0 -
I am of course not suggesting any such thing, I was merely illustrating the stupidity of Socrates comment by throwing a fatuous counter-example of what he's done where he's linked this current incident to "part of a wider culture", based upon more or less nothing at the moment.Indigo said:
A rather lame comparison. I am sure with a moments thought people can identify an extremists that bangs on about benefits, bankers, the environment or what ever, that doesn't mean that all Tories, Labour or Green Party members agree with every aspect of their beliefsglw said:
What like Anders Breivik and the wider culture of people who are always banging on about immigration? Like that?Socrates said:
I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.Moses_ said:
This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....
0 -
Ed Miliband is giving a speech:
“Today, I am announcing that the next Labour government will go further still: making it a criminal offence to undercut pay or conditions by exploiting migrant workers. We are serving notice on employers who bring workers here under duress or on false terms and pay them significantly lower wages, with worse terms and conditions. This new criminal offence will provide protection to everyone. It will help ensure that, when immigrants work here, they do not face exploitation themselves and rogue employers are stopped from undercutting the terms and conditions of everyone else.”
Working on the assumption that this is an accurate representation of his speech, he has a major issue in understanding the problem.
Where there is a rogue employer, another law or regulation is not the way to prevent them continuing as a rogue employer. To deal with the issue you deal with the rogue employer. It really is that simple. When you have dealt with the rogue employer all the issues he imagines require new laws vanish.
Are politicians really this stupid?0 -
Miss Vance, I wonder if his pills make him forget about Dr. David Kelly.
Campbell's a disgrace.0 -
She seems extremely rational to me. Especially about the shopping.OldKingCole said:
Indeede, Mr L. As a man you think like that, I’m about to do some Christmas shopping and I think like that, but do our wives? Going shopping with my wife, especially when it’s presents for the grandchildren is a nightmare!DavidL said:
The trick is to think about what you want in advance, find something that suffices and then go home. As I said I think there may well be a link to men's views on political parties.OldKingCole said:
Isn’t that the way all women shop? And isn’t it alleged to go back to hunter-gatherer learned activities? Man .... see deer, raise bow, shoot. Woman ..... see fruits, check to see if better elsewhere, eventually go back to first tree.DavidL said:Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?
As I say, allegedly.
I recall reading somewhere that the trick is to look at three things, then go back and buy the second.
The upside is that she doesn’t like me going shopping with her, so doesn’t encourage it!
Politically, to be fair, she’s much of a mind with me. Doesn’t like the Tories, can’t stand UKIP, feels let down by the LD’s but doesn’t see what Labour’s going to do.0 -
Meanwhile, four armed men have entered an apartment in Belgium:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-304782310 -
Socrates said:
A bit tame for Campbell surely? Doesn't he usually just invade their countries?CarlottaVance said:
Alastair Campbell tweeted: Good morning @Nigel_Farage - just taken my medication, now off out to abuse anyone who looks, you know, a bit foreign, or campTGOHF said:
As long as he can stay off strong medication he's got a chance of doing it (surviving in place until the GE)CarlottaVance said:
While that wouldn't be difficult - I'm sure Isam would be a much better candidate!Sean_F said:
Maybe Isam should go for Basildon South. He'd be vastly better than the other three.CarlottaVance said:Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383
Not personally. He's more of an apologist for war crimes.
0 -
Mr. H, some politicians must be amazed that criminalising killing people hasn't made murder a thing of the past.0
-
No. He doesnt want to solve the real problem, because he doesn't believe it exists, he wants to go on the record as saying something that sounds combative about immigration to try and stem the flood leaving for UKIP without actually making any real difference to anything.philiph said:Where there is a rogue employer, another law or regulation is not the way to prevent them continuing as a rogue employer. To deal with the issue you deal with the rogue employer. It really is that simple. When you have dealt with the rogue employer all the issues he imagines require new laws vanish.
Are politicians really this stupid?
Ideally he wants to say something that sounds impressive to White Van Man, but that his Guardian readers will understand it for what it is, some dog whistling for his waverers which will result in no real change in policy.
0 -
No, but they think we are.philiph said:Ed Miliband is giving a speech:
“Today, I am announcing that the next Labour government will go further still: making it a criminal offence to undercut pay or conditions by exploiting migrant workers. We are serving notice on employers who bring workers here under duress or on false terms and pay them significantly lower wages, with worse terms and conditions. This new criminal offence will provide protection to everyone. It will help ensure that, when immigrants work here, they do not face exploitation themselves and rogue employers are stopped from undercutting the terms and conditions of everyone else.”
Working on the assumption that this is an accurate representation of his speech, he has a major issue in understanding the problem.
Where there is a rogue employer, another law or regulation is not the way to prevent them continuing as a rogue employer. To deal with the issue you deal with the rogue employer. It really is that simple. When you have dealt with the rogue employer all the issues he imagines require new laws vanish.
Are politicians really this stupid?0 -
Widespread sympathy among young Muslims in developed countries for radical Islamist groups. I haven't figured it all out, but when someone holds up a flag saying what cause they're in sympathy with, some things are pretty bloody obvious.glw said:
So what wider culture are you connecting this current incident to? We know bugger all about what is going on, and yet you have apparently already joined the dots to figure it all out. Shame on you right back at you.Socrates said:
No, like Anders Breivik and white supremacist neo-fascism. The vast, vast majority of people that have concerns about immigration abhor violence and the targeting of innocents. Shame on you to suggest they're connected.glw said:
What like Anders Breivik and the wider culture of people who are always banging on about immigration? Like that?Socrates said:
I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.Moses_ said:
This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....0 -
I can't see two thirds of UKIP's support vanishing because of leadership changes (unless Labour or Lib Dems were to adopt UKIP's policies, which is very unlikely.)logical_song said:
After 2015 we may have a Labour party led by someone other than Ed. Or we may have the LibDems led by someone other than Nick. In either case I would expect UKIP to drop back below 5%.Sean_F said:
I'd be amazed if UKIP polled above 13% and won more than 5 seats, but I'd expect the party to continue its advance after the next election. By 2020, i'd expect them to be well into four figures, in terms of council seats, and have seats in the Welsh and London Assemblies.tlg86 said:
I'm sure when it comes to betting OGH very much leaves emotion at the door. His articles, on the other hand, continually claim that Ukip's won't do that well.logical_song said:
OGH seems remarkably unbiased in his reporting despite his open acknowledgement of the way he votes. Since this is a betting website, it would not be advisable to wear orange, blue, green, red or purple tinted glasses since you would end up losing money.tlg86 said:
Fair enough. It does feel like OGH's clutching at straws though.logical_song said:
The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.tlg86 said:Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.
Also is the uncertainty in one direction? That is, could their vote share actually be higher than the polls?
The uncertainty could be in either direction, the question is do you want to bet on it being higher?
If he genuinely believes that he should put his money where is mouth is and sell Ukip on the exchange.
Personally I don't expect Ukip to do that well - certainly not in terms of seats - but Ukip won't be going away after the election, that I am certain of.
However if the coalition continues and Ed stays in place (or Labour elect someone equally uninspiring) then UKIP could flourish. That's unless their internal feuds blow them apart, as quite often happens on the right.
If the Conservatives shifted right and campaigned to leave the EU, then I could see UKIP's support falling away.
0 -
I notice as part of YouGov's last Scotland poll they asked people whether they thought Alex Salmond standing for Westminster was a good idea
50% of respondents though it was a good idea:
That breaks down as 84% Yessers and 22% Noers
Aberdeenshire voted 60/40 in favour of No (no per constituency breakdown) so using the power of mathematics I am making the rock solid guaranteed prediction FACT that Alex Salmond will be elected with 45.8% of the vote. Start getting your money on now.
Slightly disappointingly they don't do a demographic breakdown of the how people voted in the referendum. You can work out a rough figure by applying UNS to the "How would you vote now" question but that's obviously not going to be accurate.
0 -
Its the standard modern political approach of shaving percentages, based on the basic assumption that more people will notice and take account of a headline saying "Miliband talks tough on immigration" or similar, than will read the editorial telling them it complete b****cks.DavidL said:
No, but they think we are.philiph said:Ed Miliband is giving a speech:
“Today, I am announcing that the next Labour government will go further still: making it a criminal offence to undercut pay or conditions by exploiting migrant workers. We are serving notice on employers who bring workers here under duress or on false terms and pay them significantly lower wages, with worse terms and conditions. This new criminal offence will provide protection to everyone. It will help ensure that, when immigrants work here, they do not face exploitation themselves and rogue employers are stopped from undercutting the terms and conditions of everyone else.”
Working on the assumption that this is an accurate representation of his speech, he has a major issue in understanding the problem.
Where there is a rogue employer, another law or regulation is not the way to prevent them continuing as a rogue employer. To deal with the issue you deal with the rogue employer. It really is that simple. When you have dealt with the rogue employer all the issues he imagines require new laws vanish.
Are politicians really this stupid?0 -
Not if you are covering this for the Guardian they're not.Socrates said:
Widespread sympathy among young Muslims in developed countries for radical Islamist groups. I haven't figured it all out, but when someone holds up a flag saying what cause they're in sympathy with, some things are pretty bloody obvious.glw said:
So what wider culture are you connecting this current incident to? We know bugger all about what is going on, and yet you have apparently already joined the dots to figure it all out. Shame on you right back at you.Socrates said:
No, like Anders Breivik and white supremacist neo-fascism. The vast, vast majority of people that have concerns about immigration abhor violence and the targeting of innocents. Shame on you to suggest they're connected.glw said:
What like Anders Breivik and the wider culture of people who are always banging on about immigration? Like that?Socrates said:
I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.Moses_ said:
This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....0 -
The last people who overlooked differential polling were the Nats.....0
-
Shameful in view of what happened to the unfortunate Dr Kelly.CarlottaVance said:
Alastair Campbell tweeted: Good morning @Nigel_Farage - just taken my medication, now off out to abuse anyone who looks, you know, a bit foreign, or campTGOHF said:
As long as he can stay off strong medication he's got a chance of doing it (surviving in place until the GE)CarlottaVance said:
While that wouldn't be difficult - I'm sure Isam would be a much better candidate!Sean_F said:
Maybe Isam should go for Basildon South. He'd be vastly better than the other three.CarlottaVance said:Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383
Nothing Farage has said or done has resulted in the death of another.0 -
Or they know we are because they don't provide an adequate education for the population?DavidL said:
No, but they think we are.philiph said:Ed Miliband is giving a speech:
“Today, I am announcing that the next Labour government will go further still: making it a criminal offence to undercut pay or conditions by exploiting migrant workers. We are serving notice on employers who bring workers here under duress or on false terms and pay them significantly lower wages, with worse terms and conditions. This new criminal offence will provide protection to everyone. It will help ensure that, when immigrants work here, they do not face exploitation themselves and rogue employers are stopped from undercutting the terms and conditions of everyone else.”
Working on the assumption that this is an accurate representation of his speech, he has a major issue in understanding the problem.
Where there is a rogue employer, another law or regulation is not the way to prevent them continuing as a rogue employer. To deal with the issue you deal with the rogue employer. It really is that simple. When you have dealt with the rogue employer all the issues he imagines require new laws vanish.
Are politicians really this stupid?0 -
You do talk nonsense.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....
Islamist standard? He's got the wrong flag. It's a Saudi one.0 -
The Saudi flag is green, not black.TheWatcher said:
You do talk nonsense.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....
Islamist standard? He's got the wrong flag. It's a Saudi one.0 -
@TheWatcher is invariably wrong in almost every statement he makes.Socrates said:
The Saudi flag is green, not black.TheWatcher said:
You do talk nonsense.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....
Islamist standard? He's got the wrong flag. It's a Saudi one.0 -
No, it's not bloody obvious until things have ended and an investigation is carried out, as we have seen time and time again.Socrates said:Widespread sympathy among young Muslims in developed countries for radical Islamist groups. I haven't figured it all out, but when someone holds up a flag saying what cause they're in sympathy with, some things are pretty bloody obvious.
0 -
Today, I am announcing that the next Labour government will go further still: making it a criminal offence to undercut pay or conditions by exploiting migrant workers
Will this apply to migrant workers within the UK? I think I sniff bullshit here. Drafting a law to enforce something against Romanians but not itinerant British jobseekers will be a laugh. Also, what are 'pay and conditions'. Pay and conditions in a free labour market are the price point at which supply and demand meet. Hairdressers charge alot more in London than Hartlepool. If migrant EU workers are allowed to come here to work at all (as is the unmovable law of the EU) then the supply curve moves and 'pay and conditions' will too. Or is Ed actually now mandating centrally dictated 'pay and conditions'. He is a Marxist. And a gimp.0 -
For places that give a breakdown of Indy results by Parliamentary Constituency (like Edinburgh and Glasgow) I am tempted to put together a SMAP (Simplistic Moron Analysis Prediction) of 2015 results based on the idea that a vote for Yes automatically and absolutely means a vote for SNP/SSP/Green at Westminster.0
-
On R4 this morning their reporter said it was the Saudi flag, but with a black background.Socrates said:
The Saudi flag is green, not black.TheWatcher said:
You do talk nonsense.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....
Islamist standard? He's got the wrong flag. It's a Saudi one.0 -
Indeed. The flag in question is effectively that, but on the wrong coloured background. Take your argument up with Frank Gardner.Socrates said:
The Saudi flag is green, not black.TheWatcher said:
You do talk nonsense.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....
Islamist standard? He's got the wrong flag. It's a Saudi one.0 -
The Saudi Arabia flag is green and has the same statement written in the same font as the flag held in the Lindt café window.
However, the flag raised in Sydney can represent any Islamic or Jihadist group.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/nsw/a/25776171/explainer-this-is-not-an-islamic-state-flag/0 -
The NOTA would have somewhere more moderate to go. UKIP's support isn't predominantly due to their policies.Sean_F said:
I can't see two thirds of UKIP's support vanishing because of leadership changes (unless Labour or Lib Dems were to adopt UKIP's policies, which is very unlikely.)logical_song said:
After 2015 we may have a Labour party led by someone other than Ed. Or we may have the LibDems led by someone other than Nick. In either case I would expect UKIP to drop back below 5%.Sean_F said:
I'd be amazed if UKIP polled above 13% and won more than 5 seats, but I'd expect the party to continue its advance after the next election. By 2020, i'd expect them to be well into four figures, in terms of council seats, and have seats in the Welsh and London Assemblies.tlg86 said:
I'm sure when it comes to betting OGH very much leaves emotion at the door. His articles, on the other hand, continually claim that Ukip's won't do that well.logical_song said:
OGH seems remarkably unbiased in his reporting despite his open acknowledgement of the way he votes. Since this is a betting website, it would not be advisable to wear orange, blue, green, red or purple tinted glasses since you would end up losing money.tlg86 said:
Fair enough. It does feel like OGH's clutching at straws though.logical_song said:
The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.tlg86 said:Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.
Also is the uncertainty in one direction? That is, could their vote share actually be higher than the polls?
The uncertainty could be in either direction, the question is do you want to bet on it being higher?
If he genuinely believes that he should put his money where is mouth is and sell Ukip on the exchange.
Personally I don't expect Ukip to do that well - certainly not in terms of seats - but Ukip won't be going away after the election, that I am certain of.
However if the coalition continues and Ed stays in place (or Labour elect someone equally uninspiring) then UKIP could flourish. That's unless their internal feuds blow them apart, as quite often happens on the right.
If the Conservatives shifted right and campaigned to leave the EU, then I could see UKIP's support falling away.0 -
Here's a model which you might want to have a look at:Alistair said:For places that give a breakdown of Indy results by Parliamentary Constituency (like Edinburgh and Glasgow) I am tempted to put together a SMAP (Simplistic Moron Analysis Prediction) of 2015 results based on the idea that a vote for Yes automatically and absolutely means a vote for SNP/SSP/Green at Westminster.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/11238028/Labour-faces-slaughter-in-Scotland.html0 -
I predict the person/persons responsible will be male, aged 18-35, from families of Asian origin, resident in Australia, Muslim, Sunni, with a history of online interactions with extremists.glw said:
No, it's not bloody obvious until things have ended and an investigation is carried out, as we have seen time and time again.Socrates said:Widespread sympathy among young Muslims in developed countries for radical Islamist groups. I haven't figured it all out, but when someone holds up a flag saying what cause they're in sympathy with, some things are pretty bloody obvious.
What odds do you want to bet that I'm wrong?0 -
But it's near enough as damn it! Muslims trying to explain away inexplicable and trying to defend the indefensible, just make me want to puke.SimonStClare said:The Saudi Arabia flag is green and has the same statement written in the same font as the flag held in the Lindt café window.
However, the flag raised in Sydney can represent any Islamic or Jihadist group.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/nsw/a/25776171/explainer-this-is-not-an-islamic-state-flag/0 -
I don't even bother to taunt him any more, given that it's shooting fish in a barrel. Just correct the facts and move on...MikeK said:
@TheWatcher is invariably wrong in almost every statement he makes.Socrates said:
The Saudi flag is green, not black.TheWatcher said:
You do talk nonsense.Socrates said:
The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.Moses_ said:Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.
So looks like a lone nutter then....
Islamist standard? He's got the wrong flag. It's a Saudi one.0 -
Latest Populus VI: Lab 36 (+1), Con 34 (=), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 12 (-2), Oth 9 (+2). Tables here: http://popu.lu/s_vi1412150
-
Not something that it's tasteful to bet on but if I were to id play the over 35 lineSocrates said:
I predict the person/persons responsible will be male, aged 18-35, from families of Asian origin, resident in Australia, Muslim, Sunni, with a history of online interactions with extremists.glw said:
No, it's not bloody obvious until things have ended and an investigation is carried out, as we have seen time and time again.Socrates said:Widespread sympathy among young Muslims in developed countries for radical Islamist groups. I haven't figured it all out, but when someone holds up a flag saying what cause they're in sympathy with, some things are pretty bloody obvious.
What odds do you want to bet that I'm wrong?0 -
Purple drain.TheScreamingEagles said:Latest Populus VI: Lab 36 (+1), Con 34 (=), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 12 (-2), Oth 9 (+2). Tables here: http://popu.lu/s_vi141215
0 -
"We still don't know who this man is, but images show a man in his 40s or 50s, which doesn't fit with the usual pattern of young and disaffected men who have gone off to Syria and Iraq,"Socrates said:
I predict the person/persons responsible will be male, aged 18-35glw said:
No, it's not bloody obvious until things have ended and an investigation is carried out, as we have seen time and time again.Socrates said:Widespread sympathy among young Muslims in developed countries for radical Islamist groups. I haven't figured it all out, but when someone holds up a flag saying what cause they're in sympathy with, some things are pretty bloody obvious.
What odds do you want to bet that I'm wrong?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/11293934/Sydney-siege-what-is-significance-of-Islamist-flags-held-by-gunman.html
I recall the massacre in Norway when "everyone" "knew" it was "obviously" "Muslim".......
0 -
Mr. Flashman (deceased), double figures for the Lib Dems, poised within striking distance of their purple foe!0
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Who will finish 4th in the GE ? Greens or Kippers ?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flashman (deceased), double figures for the Lib Dems, poised within striking distance of their purple foe!
0
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