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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The headline figures of many polls feature the views of significantly more men than women and this could be be skewing results

As can be seen male voters account for more than 50% of each party’s support with, not unexpectedly, UKIP showing the biggest divide. What is striking is that although the overall sample is weighted properly for gender balance when it comes to the output figures there are 11 men for every 9 women.

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RobD

First!

[Deleted User]

Good spot!

logical_song

So the Labour figure is unlikely to be far out due to gender balance, but Tory percentage could be skewed a bit, SNP and LD more so, but UKIP would be most affected.
Is there any academic research to back up this theory?

DavidL

Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?

Charles

DavidL said:

Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?

Isn't trying to identify the best product at the best price a worthwhile activity?

I have a bridge to sell...you interested?

tlg86

Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.

richardDodd

Charles..DavidLs wife might be..she has a few others to look at first.
Do you deliver?.

Charles

richardDodd said:

Charles..DavidLs wife might be..she has a few others to look at first.
Do you deliver?.

Naturally. Just a small additional shipping & handling charge

(Although, as an aside, in the pursuit of inter-departmental connectivty, we've just agreed to build a bridge connecting the two halves of the University of Buckingham campus)

CarlottaVance

How long before a Kipper complains this is all part of the LibLabCon Media Establishment plot to do down UKIP?

Millsy

So are pollsters supposed to guess how the women will vote?

OldKingCole

DavidL said:

Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?

Isn’t that the way all women shop? And isn’t it alleged to go back to hunter-gatherer learned activities? Man .... see deer, raise bow, shoot. Woman ..... see fruits, check to see if better elsewhere, eventually go back to first tree.

As I say, allegedly.

I recall reading somewhere that the trick is to look at three things, then go back and buy the second.

Indigo

CarlottaVance said:

How long before a Kipper complains this is all part of the LibLabCon Media Establishment plot to do down UKIP?

You might have noticed that most kippers dont care, mostly because their vote isn't moving in any appreciably way, if it actually started dropping noticeably they might care, but its all MoE, and the overall trend this year has been up.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

A sound point made by Mr. Smithson. I wonder if age is similarly affected.

richardDodd

Charles..do you have one in a Cerise or washed out yellow colour...

Morris_Dancer

Labour document on immigration is leaked: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30474521

UKIP will make great hay with that.

logical_song

tlg86 said:

Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.

The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.

tlg86

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.

The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.

Fair enough. It does feel like OGH's clutching at straws though.

Also is the uncertainty in one direction? That is, could their vote share actually be higher than the polls?

OldKingCole

The article also raises the question about what the percentage of Don’t Know’s actually is.

Charles

richardDodd said:

Charles..do you have one in a Cerise or washed out yellow colour...

Whatever it takes... ;-)

(About to take off for lunch in the south of France)

Alanbrooke

DavidL said:

Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?

We may be married to the same woman. Does she also have an incredible gift of hindsight ?

CarlottaVance

Morris_Dancer said:

Labour document on immigration is leaked: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30474521

UKIP will make great hay with that.

They are complain its been 'taken out of context' - tough to maintain when people have the whole document!

rottenborough

Morning all,

Interesting article. I've always felt undecided women play a big part in the final days of a campaign. Back in 1992 I knew Kinnock had lost on the morning when a friend's wife, who was very apolitical generally, but had been swinging towards Labour during the campaign announced she was definitely voting Tory.

Sean_F

FPT, Jason Smith, I doubt if a man asking a woman online for sex really counts as a scandal, in this day and age. At least he had the good taste not to post photographs of his bits and pieces, a la Brooks Newmark.

Alanbrooke

Charles said:

DavidL said:

Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?

Isn't trying to identify the best product at the best price a worthwhile activity?

I have a bridge to sell...you interested?

Not always, Charles you should also take in to account the opportunity cost of your time. You being a banker that's probably not worth a lot ;-)

CD13

This leaked Labour document on immigration seems quite sensible ...

"It says the issue could be "unhelpful" and may risk losing votes."

Stating the bleeding obvious, in fact, so I'm surprised they spelled it out. Why not say "Let's talk about the NHS instead" while they're teaching their granny to suck eggs.

I still think that virtually all publicity is good publicity for Ukip, even when Ed makes overtures to their voters, because Labour aren't really trusted on immigration. Surely they'd be better sticking to a consistent line rather than being seen to mouth a few platitudes? I understand their strategy; they're hoping that potential switchers will give them the benefit of the doubt. But it increases the salience.

Even things like the Sydney cafe siege is unhelpful to Labour even though their worst enemy can't blame them for that.

Moses_

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

logical_song

tlg86 said:

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.

The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.

Fair enough. It does feel like OGH's clutching at straws though.

Also is the uncertainty in one direction? That is, could their vote share actually be higher than the polls?

OGH seems remarkably unbiased in his reporting despite his open acknowledgement of the way he votes. Since this is a betting website, it would not be advisable to wear orange, blue, green, red or purple tinted glasses since you would end up losing money.
The uncertainty could be in either direction, the question is do you want to bet on it being higher?

Ninoinoz

Sean_F said:

FPT, Jason Smith, I doubt if a man asking a woman online for sex really counts as a scandal, in this day and age.

Approaching a woman for sex?

Another example of UKIP homophobia exposed etc. etc.

Socrates

So now we see Labour officially back simply ignoring immigration, one of the biggest two issues for British voters. They are completely in hoc to the immigrant lobby. They care more about groups that want to bring in brides from the subcontinent than the white working class seeing their wages undermined. First its the endorsement of anti-white employment preferences and now its the attempt to bury immigration as an issue.

Why? Because they instinctively dislike English culture, from the flag-waving white van man to the church-attending Anglican to the middle class land-owner. Ed Miliband has been brought up in an anti-English household and now he's trying to take that philosophy into government.

Ninoinoz

CarlottaVance said:

How long before a Kipper complains this is all part of the LibLabCon Media Establishment plot to do down UKIP?

*** Tin Foil Hat Alert ***

It does seem pretty consistent, especially by people who you'd think would be affected by a change in the political landscape.

Perhaps the legacy parties and BBC are scared they will held to account for all the child abuse they have tolerated over the years (Rotherham, Rochdale, Savile). They are all in it together, so to speak, but UKIP are unblemished(!) insofar as they've never been in power anywhere.

CarlottaVance

Ninoinoz said:

Sean_F said:

FPT, Jason Smith, I doubt if a man asking a woman online for sex really counts as a scandal, in this day and age.

Approaching a woman for sex?

Another example of UKIP homophobia exposed etc. etc.

Weren't you arguing earlier that homosexuality needed to be 'dealt with'?

Socrates

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

SquareRoot

Socrates said:

So now we see Labour officially back simply ignoring immigration, one of the biggest two issues for British voters. They are completely in hoc to the immigrant lobby. They care more about groups that want to bring in brides from the subcontinent than the white working class seeing their wages undermined. First its the endorsement of anti-white employment preferences and now its the attempt to bury immigration as an issue.

Why? Because they instinctively dislike English culture, from the flag-waving white van man to the church-attending Anglican to the middle class land-owner. Ed Miliband has been brought up in an anti-English household and now he's trying to take that philosophy into government.

You advised other not to let their prejudice to get in the way.. You would be well advised to take your own advice.
I cant stand Miliband, but even I can see that what you have written is utter bollocks.

Ninoinoz

CarlottaVance said:

Ninoinoz said:

Sean_F said:

FPT, Jason Smith, I doubt if a man asking a woman online for sex really counts as a scandal, in this day and age.

Approaching a woman for sex?

Another example of UKIP homophobia exposed etc. etc.

Weren't you arguing earlier that homosexuality needed to be 'dealt with'?

Feel free to post my comment and I will justify it.

MarqueeMark

So after this leak, does anyone really think Ed "forgot" to mention immigration in his speech? When will the leak happen advising Labour candidates to "forget" to talk about the deficit?

No wonder they are worried about losing their heartlands when they have nothing to say about people's concerns. And this is why I remain convinced that Labour are going to have a mare of an election campaign, when the media relentlessly turns the conversation to topics where Labour has walked off the field of battle.

CarlottaVance

Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383

DavidL

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?

Isn’t that the way all women shop? And isn’t it alleged to go back to hunter-gatherer learned activities? Man .... see deer, raise bow, shoot. Woman ..... see fruits, check to see if better elsewhere, eventually go back to first tree.

As I say, allegedly.

I recall reading somewhere that the trick is to look at three things, then go back and buy the second.

The trick is to think about what you want in advance, find something that suffices and then go home. As I said I think there may well be a link to men's views on political parties.

DavidL

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?

We may be married to the same woman. Does she also have an incredible gift of hindsight ?

Absolutely, particularly in relation to things I have attempted which were never going to work. Obviously.

Moses_

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.

Sean_F

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383

Maybe Isam should go for Basildon South. He'd be vastly better than the other three.

TGOHF

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383

I note with much mirth that it wasn't the Libservative MSM that taped the call but

"The recording was not made by a journalist but allegedly by an ally of fellow UKIP Essex candidate Tim Aker."

tlg86

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.

The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.

Fair enough. It does feel like OGH's clutching at straws though.

Also is the uncertainty in one direction? That is, could their vote share actually be higher than the polls?

OGH seems remarkably unbiased in his reporting despite his open acknowledgement of the way he votes. Since this is a betting website, it would not be advisable to wear orange, blue, green, red or purple tinted glasses since you would end up losing money.
The uncertainty could be in either direction, the question is do you want to bet on it being higher?

I'm sure when it comes to betting OGH very much leaves emotion at the door. His articles, on the other hand, continually claim that Ukip's won't do that well.

If he genuinely believes that he should put his money where is mouth is and sell Ukip on the exchange.

Personally I don't expect Ukip to do that well - certainly not in terms of seats - but Ukip won't be going away after the election, that I am certain of.

Socrates

@SquareRoot

It's not prejudice - it's a view formed by the evidence.

(1) We know this contempt for the English has a long history on the left. Orwell himself stated:

"England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals are ashamed of their own nationality. In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution."

(2) We know such sentiments still exist widely on the Left. From comments like Jack Straw (“The English are potentially very aggressive, very violent"), Diane Abbott ("White people love to play divide and rule") and George Monbiot ("England is dysfunctional, corrupt and vastly unequal. Who on earth would want to be tied to such a country?"

(3) We know that such beliefs were felt strongly by Ed Miliband's father:

"The Englishman is a rabid nationalist. They are perhaps the most nationalist people in the world . . . you sometimes want them almost to lose (the war) to show them how things are. They have the greatest contempt for the Continent . . . To lose their empire would be the worst possible humiliation."

"'Eton and Harrow, Oxford and Cambridge, the great Clubs, the Times, the Church, the Army, the respectable Sunday papers . . . It also means the values . . . of the ruling orders, keep the workers in their place...Also respectability, good taste, don't rock the boat, there will always be an England"

(4) We know that Ed Miliband is enamoured with his father and his political philosophy. He has stated his leadership is the "ultimate tribute" to Ralph Milband and wants to "bring back socialism" to honour him. He could not even trust his brother David, so he ran for the leadership to "'achieve his father's vision and ensure David Miliband did not traduce it".

(5) We have a long list of policies backed by Ed Miliband which show his contempt for the indigenous English:
- A refusal to do anything to reduce immigration
- No English parliament, despite strong backing for Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish assemblies
- Endorsement of discrimination against white English people in the job market
- Continued support for one way influence of Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish MPs on English matters
- An attempt to avoid speaking about immigration as a political issue, despite being in the top 1-2 concerns of the white working class
- England not counted as a nation in his proposed "Senate of the Nations and Regions"
- Participating in the conspiracy of silence about thousands of white English kids getting abused by Pakistani, Afghan and Somali rapists on our streets

MarqueeMark

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383

"The man in charge of vetting UKIP's election candidates was reported to have complained that "half my time is spent weeding out the lunatics"."

Perhaps he should work twice as hard and make it a full-time job?

OldKingCole

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?

Isn’t that the way all women shop? And isn’t it alleged to go back to hunter-gatherer learned activities? Man .... see deer, raise bow, shoot. Woman ..... see fruits, check to see if better elsewhere, eventually go back to first tree.

As I say, allegedly.

I recall reading somewhere that the trick is to look at three things, then go back and buy the second.

The trick is to think about what you want in advance, find something that suffices and then go home. As I said I think there may well be a link to men's views on political parties.

Indeede, Mr L. As a man you think like that, I’m about to do some Christmas shopping and I think like that, but do our wives? Going shopping with my wife, especially when it’s presents for the grandchildren is a nightmare!

The upside is that she doesn’t like me going shopping with her, so doesn’t encourage it!

Politically, to be fair, she’s much of a mind with me. Doesn’t like the Tories, can’t stand UKIP, feels let down by the LD’s but doesn’t see what Labour’s going to do.

Socrates

Moses_ said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.

I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.

[Deleted User]

I think Socrates is broadly correct. The Left, and Ed in particualr, are no friends to the basic notion of English national pride and will actively seek to supress the emergence of England as a political entity.

CarlottaVance

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383

Maybe Isam should go for Basildon South. He'd be vastly better than the other three.

While that wouldn't be difficult - I'm sure Isam would be a much better candidate!

MarqueeMark

Patrick said:

I think Socrates is broadly correct. The Left, and Ed in particualr, are no friends to the basic notion of English national pride and will actively seek to supress the emergence of England as a political entity.

But no doubt Ed will look at the van-driving winner of The X Factor with pride.....

TGOHF

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383

Maybe Isam should go for Basildon South. He'd be vastly better than the other three.

While that wouldn't be difficult - I'm sure Isam would be a much better candidate!

As long as he can stay off strong medication he's got a chance of doing it (surviving in place until the GE)

glw

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.

I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.

What like Anders Breivik and the wider culture of people who are always banging on about immigration? Like that?

Socrates

glw said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.

I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.

What like Anders Breivik and the wider culture of people who are always banging on about immigration? Like that?

No, like Anders Breivik and white supremacist neo-fascism. The vast, vast majority of people that have concerns about immigration abhor violence and the targeting of innocents. Shame on you to suggest they're connected.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. glw, Breivik was a lone lunatic. There's the Sydney hostage situation, Lee Rigby's murder, 7/7, the Madrid train bombing, and 9/11 that all spring to mind from Islamic terrorism, not forgetting the perpetual cauldron of war crimes that is ISIS.

AlastairMeeks

This is interesting. It's always possible, of course, that we might see differential turnout between the sexes. Alienation may cause men to vote for silly parties and women simply not to vote.

Sean_F

tlg86 said:

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.

The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.

Fair enough. It does feel like OGH's clutching at straws though.

Also is the uncertainty in one direction? That is, could their vote share actually be higher than the polls?

OGH seems remarkably unbiased in his reporting despite his open acknowledgement of the way he votes. Since this is a betting website, it would not be advisable to wear orange, blue, green, red or purple tinted glasses since you would end up losing money.
The uncertainty could be in either direction, the question is do you want to bet on it being higher?

I'm sure when it comes to betting OGH very much leaves emotion at the door. His articles, on the other hand, continually claim that Ukip's won't do that well.

If he genuinely believes that he should put his money where is mouth is and sell Ukip on the exchange.

Personally I don't expect Ukip to do that well - certainly not in terms of seats - but Ukip won't be going away after the election, that I am certain of.

I'd be amazed if UKIP polled above 13% and won more than 5 seats, but I'd expect the party to continue its advance after the next election. By 2020, i'd expect them to be well into four figures, in terms of council seats, and have seats in the Welsh and London Assemblies.

Indigo

glw said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.

I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.

What like Anders Breivik and the wider culture of people who are always banging on about immigration? Like that?

A rather lame comparison. I am sure with a moments thought people can identify an extremists that bangs on about benefits, bankers, the environment or what ever, that doesn't mean that all Tories, Labour or Green Party members agree with every aspect of their beliefs

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Antifrank, a fair comment to suggest apathy/alienation with politics may cause different groups to react differently.

CarlottaVance

TGOHF said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383

Maybe Isam should go for Basildon South. He'd be vastly better than the other three.

While that wouldn't be difficult - I'm sure Isam would be a much better candidate!

As long as he can stay off strong medication he's got a chance of doing it (surviving in place until the GE)

Alastair Campbell tweeted: Good morning @Nigel_Farage - just taken my medication, now off out to abuse anyone who looks, you know, a bit foreign, or camp

AlastairMeeks

For the weekday crowd, I put a post up on Saturday on the Conservative/Labour battleground:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/testing-boundaries-1-conservatives-vs.html

Socrates

CarlottaVance said:

TGOHF said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383

Maybe Isam should go for Basildon South. He'd be vastly better than the other three.

While that wouldn't be difficult - I'm sure Isam would be a much better candidate!

As long as he can stay off strong medication he's got a chance of doing it (surviving in place until the GE)

Alastair Campbell tweeted: Good morning @Nigel_Farage - just taken my medication, now off out to abuse anyone who looks, you know, a bit foreign, or camp

A bit tame for Campbell surely? Doesn't he usually just invade their countries?

Indigo

antifrank said:

This is interesting. It's always possible, of course, that we might see differential turnout between the sexes. Alienation may cause men to vote for silly parties and women simply not to vote.

The parties behave similarly when faced with difficult issues they cant solve. The "sensible" parties either lie about it (no ifs, no buts) or pretends it doesn't exist (labour not talking about the deficit or, now apparently, immigration). The "silly" parties attempt to sell simplistic solutions (UKIP on immigration, Greens on the bankrupt the country environmental policies). I am not sure which is worse to be honest.

glw

Socrates said:

glw said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.

I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.

What like Anders Breivik and the wider culture of people who are always banging on about immigration? Like that?

No, like Anders Breivik and white supremacist neo-fascism. The vast, vast majority of people that have concerns about immigration abhor violence and the targeting of innocents. Shame on you to suggest they're connected.

So what wider culture are you connecting this current incident to? We know bugger all about what is going on, and yet you have apparently already joined the dots to figure it all out. Shame on you right back at you.

logical_song

Sean_F said:

tlg86 said:

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.

The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.

Fair enough. It does feel like OGH's clutching at straws though.

Also is the uncertainty in one direction? That is, could their vote share actually be higher than the polls?

OGH seems remarkably unbiased in his reporting despite his open acknowledgement of the way he votes. Since this is a betting website, it would not be advisable to wear orange, blue, green, red or purple tinted glasses since you would end up losing money.
The uncertainty could be in either direction, the question is do you want to bet on it being higher?

I'm sure when it comes to betting OGH very much leaves emotion at the door. His articles, on the other hand, continually claim that Ukip's won't do that well.

If he genuinely believes that he should put his money where is mouth is and sell Ukip on the exchange.

Personally I don't expect Ukip to do that well - certainly not in terms of seats - but Ukip won't be going away after the election, that I am certain of.

I'd be amazed if UKIP polled above 13% and won more than 5 seats, but I'd expect the party to continue its advance after the next election. By 2020, i'd expect them to be well into four figures, in terms of council seats, and have seats in the Welsh and London Assemblies.

After 2015 we may have a Labour party led by someone other than Ed. Or we may have the LibDems led by someone other than Nick. In either case I would expect UKIP to drop back below 5%.
However if the coalition continues and Ed stays in place (or Labour elect someone equally uninspiring) then UKIP could flourish. That's unless their internal feuds blow them apart, as quite often happens on the right.

glw

Indigo said:

glw said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.

I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.

What like Anders Breivik and the wider culture of people who are always banging on about immigration? Like that?

A rather lame comparison. I am sure with a moments thought people can identify an extremists that bangs on about benefits, bankers, the environment or what ever, that doesn't mean that all Tories, Labour or Green Party members agree with every aspect of their beliefs

I am of course not suggesting any such thing, I was merely illustrating the stupidity of Socrates comment by throwing a fatuous counter-example of what he's done where he's linked this current incident to "part of a wider culture", based upon more or less nothing at the moment.

philiph

Ed Miliband is giving a speech:

“Today, I am announcing that the next Labour government will go further still: making it a criminal offence to undercut pay or conditions by exploiting migrant workers. We are serving notice on employers who bring workers here under duress or on false terms and pay them significantly lower wages, with worse terms and conditions. This new criminal offence will provide protection to everyone. It will help ensure that, when immigrants work here, they do not face exploitation themselves and rogue employers are stopped from undercutting the terms and conditions of everyone else.”


Working on the assumption that this is an accurate representation of his speech, he has a major issue in understanding the problem.

Where there is a rogue employer, another law or regulation is not the way to prevent them continuing as a rogue employer. To deal with the issue you deal with the rogue employer. It really is that simple. When you have dealt with the rogue employer all the issues he imagines require new laws vanish.

Are politicians really this stupid?

Morris_Dancer

Miss Vance, I wonder if his pills make him forget about Dr. David Kelly.

Campbell's a disgrace.

DavidL

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

Hmm...Christmas shopping with my wife involves going around every shop looking at pretty much the same article before going back to the one she saw first off. Does the same apply to polling?

Isn’t that the way all women shop? And isn’t it alleged to go back to hunter-gatherer learned activities? Man .... see deer, raise bow, shoot. Woman ..... see fruits, check to see if better elsewhere, eventually go back to first tree.

As I say, allegedly.

I recall reading somewhere that the trick is to look at three things, then go back and buy the second.

The trick is to think about what you want in advance, find something that suffices and then go home. As I said I think there may well be a link to men's views on political parties.

Indeede, Mr L. As a man you think like that, I’m about to do some Christmas shopping and I think like that, but do our wives? Going shopping with my wife, especially when it’s presents for the grandchildren is a nightmare!

The upside is that she doesn’t like me going shopping with her, so doesn’t encourage it!

Politically, to be fair, she’s much of a mind with me. Doesn’t like the Tories, can’t stand UKIP, feels let down by the LD’s but doesn’t see what Labour’s going to do.

She seems extremely rational to me. Especially about the shopping.

Morris_Dancer

Meanwhile, four armed men have entered an apartment in Belgium:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30478231

Sean_F

Socrates said:

CarlottaVance said:

TGOHF said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383

Maybe Isam should go for Basildon South. He'd be vastly better than the other three.

While that wouldn't be difficult - I'm sure Isam would be a much better candidate!

As long as he can stay off strong medication he's got a chance of doing it (surviving in place until the GE)

Alastair Campbell tweeted: Good morning @Nigel_Farage - just taken my medication, now off out to abuse anyone who looks, you know, a bit foreign, or camp

A bit tame for Campbell surely? Doesn't he usually just invade their countries?

Not personally. He's more of an apologist for war crimes.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. H, some politicians must be amazed that criminalising killing people hasn't made murder a thing of the past.

Indigo

philiph said:

Where there is a rogue employer, another law or regulation is not the way to prevent them continuing as a rogue employer. To deal with the issue you deal with the rogue employer. It really is that simple. When you have dealt with the rogue employer all the issues he imagines require new laws vanish.

Are politicians really this stupid?

No. He doesnt want to solve the real problem, because he doesn't believe it exists, he wants to go on the record as saying something that sounds combative about immigration to try and stem the flood leaving for UKIP without actually making any real difference to anything.

Ideally he wants to say something that sounds impressive to White Van Man, but that his Guardian readers will understand it for what it is, some dog whistling for his waverers which will result in no real change in policy.

DavidL

philiph said:

Ed Miliband is giving a speech:

“Today, I am announcing that the next Labour government will go further still: making it a criminal offence to undercut pay or conditions by exploiting migrant workers. We are serving notice on employers who bring workers here under duress or on false terms and pay them significantly lower wages, with worse terms and conditions. This new criminal offence will provide protection to everyone. It will help ensure that, when immigrants work here, they do not face exploitation themselves and rogue employers are stopped from undercutting the terms and conditions of everyone else.”


Working on the assumption that this is an accurate representation of his speech, he has a major issue in understanding the problem.

Where there is a rogue employer, another law or regulation is not the way to prevent them continuing as a rogue employer. To deal with the issue you deal with the rogue employer. It really is that simple. When you have dealt with the rogue employer all the issues he imagines require new laws vanish.

Are politicians really this stupid?

No, but they think we are.

Socrates

glw said:

Socrates said:

glw said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.

I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.

What like Anders Breivik and the wider culture of people who are always banging on about immigration? Like that?

No, like Anders Breivik and white supremacist neo-fascism. The vast, vast majority of people that have concerns about immigration abhor violence and the targeting of innocents. Shame on you to suggest they're connected.

So what wider culture are you connecting this current incident to? We know bugger all about what is going on, and yet you have apparently already joined the dots to figure it all out. Shame on you right back at you.

Widespread sympathy among young Muslims in developed countries for radical Islamist groups. I haven't figured it all out, but when someone holds up a flag saying what cause they're in sympathy with, some things are pretty bloody obvious.

Sean_F

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

tlg86 said:

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.

The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.

Fair enough. It does feel like OGH's clutching at straws though.

Also is the uncertainty in one direction? That is, could their vote share actually be higher than the polls?

OGH seems remarkably unbiased in his reporting despite his open acknowledgement of the way he votes. Since this is a betting website, it would not be advisable to wear orange, blue, green, red or purple tinted glasses since you would end up losing money.
The uncertainty could be in either direction, the question is do you want to bet on it being higher?

I'm sure when it comes to betting OGH very much leaves emotion at the door. His articles, on the other hand, continually claim that Ukip's won't do that well.

If he genuinely believes that he should put his money where is mouth is and sell Ukip on the exchange.

Personally I don't expect Ukip to do that well - certainly not in terms of seats - but Ukip won't be going away after the election, that I am certain of.

I'd be amazed if UKIP polled above 13% and won more than 5 seats, but I'd expect the party to continue its advance after the next election. By 2020, i'd expect them to be well into four figures, in terms of council seats, and have seats in the Welsh and London Assemblies.

After 2015 we may have a Labour party led by someone other than Ed. Or we may have the LibDems led by someone other than Nick. In either case I would expect UKIP to drop back below 5%.
However if the coalition continues and Ed stays in place (or Labour elect someone equally uninspiring) then UKIP could flourish. That's unless their internal feuds blow them apart, as quite often happens on the right.

I can't see two thirds of UKIP's support vanishing because of leadership changes (unless Labour or Lib Dems were to adopt UKIP's policies, which is very unlikely.)

If the Conservatives shifted right and campaigned to leave the EU, then I could see UKIP's support falling away.

Alistair

I notice as part of YouGov's last Scotland poll they asked people whether they thought Alex Salmond standing for Westminster was a good idea

50% of respondents though it was a good idea:
That breaks down as 84% Yessers and 22% Noers

Aberdeenshire voted 60/40 in favour of No (no per constituency breakdown) so using the power of mathematics I am making the rock solid guaranteed prediction FACT that Alex Salmond will be elected with 45.8% of the vote. Start getting your money on now.

Slightly disappointingly they don't do a demographic breakdown of the how people voted in the referendum. You can work out a rough figure by applying UNS to the "How would you vote now" question but that's obviously not going to be accurate.

Indigo

DavidL said:

philiph said:

Ed Miliband is giving a speech:

“Today, I am announcing that the next Labour government will go further still: making it a criminal offence to undercut pay or conditions by exploiting migrant workers. We are serving notice on employers who bring workers here under duress or on false terms and pay them significantly lower wages, with worse terms and conditions. This new criminal offence will provide protection to everyone. It will help ensure that, when immigrants work here, they do not face exploitation themselves and rogue employers are stopped from undercutting the terms and conditions of everyone else.”


Working on the assumption that this is an accurate representation of his speech, he has a major issue in understanding the problem.

Where there is a rogue employer, another law or regulation is not the way to prevent them continuing as a rogue employer. To deal with the issue you deal with the rogue employer. It really is that simple. When you have dealt with the rogue employer all the issues he imagines require new laws vanish.

Are politicians really this stupid?

No, but they think we are.

Its the standard modern political approach of shaving percentages, based on the basic assumption that more people will notice and take account of a headline saying "Miliband talks tough on immigration" or similar, than will read the editorial telling them it complete b****cks.

TOPPING

Socrates said:

glw said:

Socrates said:

glw said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

This is not well organised. Its a chocolate shop FFS. Hostage to hostage taker level is firmly in favour of the hostages. This is demonstrated as 5 have managed to escape so the gunman cannot control the situation inside. I just feel had this been part of a larger movement there would be more than one gunman or more than one incident. The flag is just of passing interest insofar as the guy doesn't like the Ozzies sending people to the Middle East. He's well known to police and media.

I'm not saying it's a co-ordinated, organised attack. I'm saying that writing it off as a "lone nutter" is obscuring the fact that this is part of a wider culture.

What like Anders Breivik and the wider culture of people who are always banging on about immigration? Like that?

No, like Anders Breivik and white supremacist neo-fascism. The vast, vast majority of people that have concerns about immigration abhor violence and the targeting of innocents. Shame on you to suggest they're connected.

So what wider culture are you connecting this current incident to? We know bugger all about what is going on, and yet you have apparently already joined the dots to figure it all out. Shame on you right back at you.

Widespread sympathy among young Muslims in developed countries for radical Islamist groups. I haven't figured it all out, but when someone holds up a flag saying what cause they're in sympathy with, some things are pretty bloody obvious.

Not if you are covering this for the Guardian they're not.

CarlottaVance

The last people who overlooked differential polling were the Nats.....

TheWatcher

CarlottaVance said:

TGOHF said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Robinson on the UKIP power struggle:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30476383

Maybe Isam should go for Basildon South. He'd be vastly better than the other three.

While that wouldn't be difficult - I'm sure Isam would be a much better candidate!

As long as he can stay off strong medication he's got a chance of doing it (surviving in place until the GE)

Alastair Campbell tweeted: Good morning @Nigel_Farage - just taken my medication, now off out to abuse anyone who looks, you know, a bit foreign, or camp

Shameful in view of what happened to the unfortunate Dr Kelly.

Nothing Farage has said or done has resulted in the death of another.

philiph

DavidL said:

philiph said:

Ed Miliband is giving a speech:

“Today, I am announcing that the next Labour government will go further still: making it a criminal offence to undercut pay or conditions by exploiting migrant workers. We are serving notice on employers who bring workers here under duress or on false terms and pay them significantly lower wages, with worse terms and conditions. This new criminal offence will provide protection to everyone. It will help ensure that, when immigrants work here, they do not face exploitation themselves and rogue employers are stopped from undercutting the terms and conditions of everyone else.”


Working on the assumption that this is an accurate representation of his speech, he has a major issue in understanding the problem.

Where there is a rogue employer, another law or regulation is not the way to prevent them continuing as a rogue employer. To deal with the issue you deal with the rogue employer. It really is that simple. When you have dealt with the rogue employer all the issues he imagines require new laws vanish.

Are politicians really this stupid?

No, but they think we are.

Or they know we are because they don't provide an adequate education for the population?

TheWatcher

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

You do talk nonsense.

Islamist standard? He's got the wrong flag. It's a Saudi one.

Socrates

TheWatcher said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

You do talk nonsense.

Islamist standard? He's got the wrong flag. It's a Saudi one.

The Saudi flag is green, not black.

MikeK

Socrates said:

TheWatcher said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

You do talk nonsense.

Islamist standard? He's got the wrong flag. It's a Saudi one.

The Saudi flag is green, not black.

@TheWatcher is invariably wrong in almost every statement he makes.

glw

Socrates said:

Widespread sympathy among young Muslims in developed countries for radical Islamist groups. I haven't figured it all out, but when someone holds up a flag saying what cause they're in sympathy with, some things are pretty bloody obvious.

No, it's not bloody obvious until things have ended and an investigation is carried out, as we have seen time and time again.

[Deleted User]

Today, I am announcing that the next Labour government will go further still: making it a criminal offence to undercut pay or conditions by exploiting migrant workers

Will this apply to migrant workers within the UK? I think I sniff bullshit here. Drafting a law to enforce something against Romanians but not itinerant British jobseekers will be a laugh. Also, what are 'pay and conditions'. Pay and conditions in a free labour market are the price point at which supply and demand meet. Hairdressers charge alot more in London than Hartlepool. If migrant EU workers are allowed to come here to work at all (as is the unmovable law of the EU) then the supply curve moves and 'pay and conditions' will too. Or is Ed actually now mandating centrally dictated 'pay and conditions'. He is a Marxist. And a gimp.

Alistair

For places that give a breakdown of Indy results by Parliamentary Constituency (like Edinburgh and Glasgow) I am tempted to put together a SMAP (Simplistic Moron Analysis Prediction) of 2015 results based on the idea that a vote for Yes automatically and absolutely means a vote for SNP/SSP/Green at Westminster.

Theuniondivvie

Socrates said:

TheWatcher said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

You do talk nonsense.

Islamist standard? He's got the wrong flag. It's a Saudi one.

The Saudi flag is green, not black.

On R4 this morning their reporter said it was the Saudi flag, but with a black background.

TheWatcher

Socrates said:

TheWatcher said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

You do talk nonsense.

Islamist standard? He's got the wrong flag. It's a Saudi one.

The Saudi flag is green, not black.

Indeed. The flag in question is effectively that, but on the wrong coloured background. Take your argument up with Frank Gardner.

SimonStClare

The Saudi Arabia flag is green and has the same statement written in the same font as the flag held in the Lindt café window.

However, the flag raised in Sydney can represent any Islamic or Jihadist group.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/nsw/a/25776171/explainer-this-is-not-an-islamic-state-flag/

logical_song

Sean_F said:

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

tlg86 said:

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

Is this good or bad for Ukip? Surely having more males voters who are more likely to vote - and less likely to change their mind (snigger) - means their share of the vote is less likely to change.

The article says that turnout figures are about the same for men and women, so men aren't more likely to vote.
All it means is that UKIP's percentage is more subject to doubt, by quite a large margin over other parties.

Fair enough. It does feel like OGH's clutching at straws though.

Also is the uncertainty in one direction? That is, could their vote share actually be higher than the polls?

OGH seems remarkably unbiased in his reporting despite his open acknowledgement of the way he votes. Since this is a betting website, it would not be advisable to wear orange, blue, green, red or purple tinted glasses since you would end up losing money.
The uncertainty could be in either direction, the question is do you want to bet on it being higher?

I'm sure when it comes to betting OGH very much leaves emotion at the door. His articles, on the other hand, continually claim that Ukip's won't do that well.

If he genuinely believes that he should put his money where is mouth is and sell Ukip on the exchange.

Personally I don't expect Ukip to do that well - certainly not in terms of seats - but Ukip won't be going away after the election, that I am certain of.

I'd be amazed if UKIP polled above 13% and won more than 5 seats, but I'd expect the party to continue its advance after the next election. By 2020, i'd expect them to be well into four figures, in terms of council seats, and have seats in the Welsh and London Assemblies.

After 2015 we may have a Labour party led by someone other than Ed. Or we may have the LibDems led by someone other than Nick. In either case I would expect UKIP to drop back below 5%.
However if the coalition continues and Ed stays in place (or Labour elect someone equally uninspiring) then UKIP could flourish. That's unless their internal feuds blow them apart, as quite often happens on the right.

I can't see two thirds of UKIP's support vanishing because of leadership changes (unless Labour or Lib Dems were to adopt UKIP's policies, which is very unlikely.)

If the Conservatives shifted right and campaigned to leave the EU, then I could see UKIP's support falling away.

The NOTA would have somewhere more moderate to go. UKIP's support isn't predominantly due to their policies.

AlastairMeeks

Alistair said:

For places that give a breakdown of Indy results by Parliamentary Constituency (like Edinburgh and Glasgow) I am tempted to put together a SMAP (Simplistic Moron Analysis Prediction) of 2015 results based on the idea that a vote for Yes automatically and absolutely means a vote for SNP/SSP/Green at Westminster.

Here's a model which you might want to have a look at:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/11238028/Labour-faces-slaughter-in-Scotland.html

Socrates

glw said:

Socrates said:

Widespread sympathy among young Muslims in developed countries for radical Islamist groups. I haven't figured it all out, but when someone holds up a flag saying what cause they're in sympathy with, some things are pretty bloody obvious.

No, it's not bloody obvious until things have ended and an investigation is carried out, as we have seen time and time again.

I predict the person/persons responsible will be male, aged 18-35, from families of Asian origin, resident in Australia, Muslim, Sunni, with a history of online interactions with extremists.

What odds do you want to bet that I'm wrong?

MikeK

SimonStClare said:

The Saudi Arabia flag is green and has the same statement written in the same font as the flag held in the Lindt café window.

However, the flag raised in Sydney can represent any Islamic or Jihadist group.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/nsw/a/25776171/explainer-this-is-not-an-islamic-state-flag/

But it's near enough as damn it! Muslims trying to explain away inexplicable and trying to defend the indefensible, just make me want to puke.

Socrates

MikeK said:

Socrates said:

TheWatcher said:

Socrates said:

Moses_ said:

Sky News
The Gunman in Sydney is apparently well known to Police and also local media. Channel 9 have confirmed that and stated they have been asked to keep the ID under wraps for now.

So looks like a lone nutter then....

The Islamist Standard was put up in the window. Whether it's one guy or not, he's clearly part of a broader movement.

You do talk nonsense.

Islamist standard? He's got the wrong flag. It's a Saudi one.

The Saudi flag is green, not black.

@TheWatcher is invariably wrong in almost every statement he makes.

I don't even bother to taunt him any more, given that it's shooting fish in a barrel. Just correct the facts and move on...

TheScreamingEagles

Latest Populus VI: Lab 36 (+1), Con 34 (=), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 12 (-2), Oth 9 (+2). Tables here: http://popu.lu/s_vi141215

isam

Socrates said:

glw said:

Socrates said:

Widespread sympathy among young Muslims in developed countries for radical Islamist groups. I haven't figured it all out, but when someone holds up a flag saying what cause they're in sympathy with, some things are pretty bloody obvious.

No, it's not bloody obvious until things have ended and an investigation is carried out, as we have seen time and time again.

I predict the person/persons responsible will be male, aged 18-35, from families of Asian origin, resident in Australia, Muslim, Sunni, with a history of online interactions with extremists.

What odds do you want to bet that I'm wrong?

Not something that it's tasteful to bet on but if I were to id play the over 35 line

TGOHF

TheScreamingEagles said:

Latest Populus VI: Lab 36 (+1), Con 34 (=), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 12 (-2), Oth 9 (+2). Tables here: http://popu.lu/s_vi141215

Purple drain.

CarlottaVance

Socrates said:

glw said:

Socrates said:

Widespread sympathy among young Muslims in developed countries for radical Islamist groups. I haven't figured it all out, but when someone holds up a flag saying what cause they're in sympathy with, some things are pretty bloody obvious.

No, it's not bloody obvious until things have ended and an investigation is carried out, as we have seen time and time again.

I predict the person/persons responsible will be male, aged 18-35

What odds do you want to bet that I'm wrong?

"We still don't know who this man is, but images show a man in his 40s or 50s, which doesn't fit with the usual pattern of young and disaffected men who have gone off to Syria and Iraq,"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/11293934/Sydney-siege-what-is-significance-of-Islamist-flags-held-by-gunman.html

I recall the massacre in Norway when "everyone" "knew" it was "obviously" "Muslim".......

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Flashman (deceased), double figures for the Lib Dems, poised within striking distance of their purple foe!

TGOHF

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Flashman (deceased), double figures for the Lib Dems, poised within striking distance of their purple foe!

Who will finish 4th in the GE ? Greens or Kippers ?