I like the idea the most intelligent person you ever meet is the one that agrees with you.
The most intelligent people you meet, are those who can convince you to challenge your own viewpoints.
(Unless you know a maths professor or a rocket designer)
One of the brightest people I know is now a maths graduate who is now a professor at Oxford.
After he graduated I had a conversation with him where I had to explain the causes of the seasons (he thought it was the varying distance of the earth from the sun during the year).
Oh there’s plenty of those, who are very specialist in one area of knowledge and have very surprising gaps elsewhere!
I know a guy who works at an F1 team, and the number of times the mechanical and aeronautical engineers have disagreements about basic principals is apparently way more than you’d expect!
I think we all have large gaps in what we know: the best one can do is try not to be confidently wrong.
One of the hardest lesson a teacher learns is that sometimes the answer to a student’s question is “I don’t know’: the temptation to just make something up on the spot can be overwhelming.
That’s probably how religions get started…
Edit to add: the real problem is when you convince yourself that your plausible explanation must be true.
Ha yes. I work as an IT manager, and that temptation is there all the time. It’s usually way easier in the moment to bullsh!t an answer in the management meeting, than it is to say I’ll research the subject and come back to the group later.
Hey I am spending a week in Pakistan in December, bound for blighty on 20ish Dec and have to change plane somewhere anyway. What is Xmas in the sandpit like?
Awesome, expect 20ºC or thereabouts, maybe 3% chance of rain on any given day - but peak holiday season so the fancy hotels will be at top rates. Worth staying for a day or two if you’ve not been here before and it breaks the journey.
To add @mercator, that Christmas isn’t a formal holiday here, so it’s a lot more relaxed than you might expect, no problem with trains and taxis, restaurant bookings etc.
New Year is the bigger celebration, which if I’m honest is best avoided unless you have a massive budget.
I like the idea the most intelligent person you ever meet is the one that agrees with you.
The most intelligent people you meet, are those who can convince you to challenge your own viewpoints.
(Unless you know a maths professor or a rocket designer)
One of the brightest people I know is now a maths graduate who is now a professor at Oxford.
After he graduated I had a conversation with him where I had to explain the causes of the seasons (he thought it was the varying distance of the earth from the sun during the year).
Oh there’s plenty of those, who are very specialist in one area of knowledge and have very surprising gaps elsewhere!
I know a guy who works at an F1 team, and the number of times the mechanical and aeronautical engineers have disagreements about basic principals is apparently way more than you’d expect!
I think we all have large gaps in what we know: the best one can do is try not to be confidently wrong.
One of the hardest lesson a teacher learns is that sometimes the answer to a student’s question is “I don’t know’: the temptation to just make something up on the spot can be overwhelming.
That’s probably how religions get started…
Edit to add: the real problem is when you convince yourself that your plausible explanation must be true.
Ha yes. I work as an IT manager, and that temptation is there all the time. It’s usually way easier in the moment to bullsh!t an answer in the management meeting, than it is to say I’ll research the subject and come back to the group later.
Hey I am spending a week in Pakistan in December, bound for blighty on 20ish Dec and have to change plane somewhere anyway. What is Xmas in the sandpit like?
Awesome, expect 20ºC or thereabouts, maybe 3% chance of rain on any given day - but peak holiday season so the fancy hotels will be at top rates. Worth staying for a day or two if you’ve not been here before and it breaks the journey.
To add @mercator, that Christmas isn’t a formal holiday here, so it’s a lot more relaxed than you might expect, no problem with trains and taxis, restaurant bookings etc.
New Year is the bigger celebration, which if I’m honest is best avoided unless you have a massive budget.
Thanks. Sounds very tempting.
Cool. Feel free to PM me if you’re looking at anything specific.
Lets hope the Springer/Kyle era of manipulating and exploiting often unwell and mentally ill people to air all their secrets and dirty linen in front of the entire world is now over...
On the state pension. The current full rate is £11,502 a year. In 2022 it was £9,627 a year. So that's an increase of £1,875 in 2 years, thanks to the triple lock. And, of course, a fair bit of that increase is accounted for by inflationary energy costs. In that context, the fuel allowance of £300 is not, I think, as big a deal as people make it out to be - essentially it means that the pension has risen by £1,575 rather than £1,875 over two years.
I want to correct this to the WFA is only £300 for those 80
Which, in general, makes its loss even less of a deal.
There are very many pensioners who are outside the means testing where it will be a very big deal this winter and why so many mps are opposed to it including the lib dems and a number of labour mps who are very worried
🎻
There are very many working families who struggle and they haven't all got triple locked above-inflation wage rises.
Why should we worry more about pensioners than anyone else? Especially when infants are the most vulnerable and need heating the most, not pensioners, and there's more infants at home in working families than in pensioner families.
We live in a country that has always accepted the elderly are declining in health, cannot increase their income, and as they become more vulnerable need to be looked after and respected having worked a long life and paid all their taxes
The state pension is inadequate and so additional support is needed and has been recognised by all governments
And why is the state pension inadequate? Anything to do with the 1980 Social Security Act?
It's one thing to pay all the taxes that the government requires of you. Doesn't mean that those taxes are sufficient to keep taxpayers in the style to which they would like to become accustomed.
On the state pension. The current full rate is £11,502 a year. In 2022 it was £9,627 a year. So that's an increase of £1,875 in 2 years, thanks to the triple lock. And, of course, a fair bit of that increase is accounted for by inflationary energy costs. In that context, the fuel allowance of £300 is not, I think, as big a deal as people make it out to be - essentially it means that the pension has risen by £1,575 rather than £1,875 over two years.
I want to correct this to the WFA is only £300 for those 80
Which, in general, makes its loss even less of a deal.
There are very many pensioners who are outside the means testing where it will be a very big deal this winter and why so many mps are opposed to it including the lib dems and a number of labour mps who are very worried
🎻
There are very many working families who struggle and they haven't all got triple locked above-inflation wage rises.
Why should we worry more about pensioners than anyone else? Especially when infants are the most vulnerable and need heating the most, not pensioners, and there's more infants at home in working families than in pensioner families.
We live in a country that has always accepted the elderly are declining in health, cannot increase their income, and as they become more vulnerable need to be looked after and respected having worked a long life and paid all their taxes
The state pension is inadequate and so additional support is needed and has been recognised by all governments
850,000 pensioners do not claim the pension credit to which they are entitled. Yes, we can agree the state pension is inadequate but if the additional support goes unclaimed what can be done?
To be honest Reeves has without thinking just done a service to the 850,000 who do not claim pension credit, but ironically it will cost more than any saving made by means testing the WFA
The state pension is not adequate notwithstanding the recent rises, and it seems a certainty that the pension age will need to rise to 70
I would just say that as I stayed in serps and have a modest pension I am comfortably off and do not disagree with losing the WFA, but I would just add my wife's pension, believe it or not, is just over £5,000 pa as she stayed at home looking after our children and only had a part time job in later life, though we are extremely fortunate and grateful for our blessings
Lets hope the Springer/Kyle era of manipulating and exploiting often unwell and mentally ill people to air all their secrets and dirty linen in front of the entire world is now over...
Aren’t you describing the Tory leadership election?
Lets hope the Springer/Kyle era of manipulating and exploiting often unwell and mentally ill people to air all their secrets and dirty linen in front of the entire world is now over...
Aren’t you describing the Tory leadership election?
LOL!
To be honest, I thought the Tory leadership content would be a lot nastier than it has been?
Lets hope the Springer/Kyle era of manipulating and exploiting often unwell and mentally ill people to air all their secrets and dirty linen in front of the entire world is now over...
Aren’t you describing the Tory leadership election?
LOL!
To be honest, I thought the Tory leadership content would be a lot nastier than it has been?
Its much easier when in opposition. Take time, let people speak, see debates about big ideas rather than narrow policies.
Lets hope the Springer/Kyle era of manipulating and exploiting often unwell and mentally ill people to air all their secrets and dirty linen in front of the entire world is now over...
Aren’t you describing the Tory leadership election?
LOL!
To be honest, I thought the Tory leadership content would be a lot nastier than it has been?
Lets hope the Springer/Kyle era of manipulating and exploiting often unwell and mentally ill people to air all their secrets and dirty linen in front of the entire world is now over...
Aren’t you describing the Tory leadership election?
LOL!
To be honest, I thought the Tory leadership content would be a lot nastier than it has been?
Its much easier when in opposition. Take time, let people speak, see debates about big ideas rather than narrow policies.
I guess also the fact there's so few surviving Tory MPs has taken the sting out of the contest a bit as at the end of this the 121 have got to hang together, where-as if there were say 280 CON MP's it would be much easier for anonymous briefing, etc?
I have a feeling he's going to turn out to be one of the best Prime Minister's we've had. So far he hasn't put a foot wrong and it 's starting to feel like the country's getting it's confidence back. Possibly he'll be the next Atlee.
LOL!!
If you want a buffoon who wears high viz jackets and poses for photo ops all day then he's not for you. But if like most people you just want someone who'll do the right thing for the right reasons and will make sure we get on with our neighbours and don't gratuitously persecute immigrants and will get on with the business of running the government fairly and competently then I don't think we could do much better.
Yes, that’s roger there, lecturing Britain about its racism from the vantage point of Villefranche-sur-Mer, which directly elected Le Pen’s guy in the first round of the election, no need for a second go
Good to have the true Blighty perspective spelled out from... (checks) oh, Kotor.
I met my first montegerin today who has doubts about joining the EU. He’s also the smartest guy I’ve met on this trip. Milos K
Up until Milos everyone I’ve encountered has been keen (like the whole country). He’s about 30 and very clever and he told me “of course I wanted to join but now I look at Croatia, they lost so many workers due to free movement they had to replace them with people from Asia, is that a good idea for us?”
Interesting. Its a fabulous country and this has been a fabulous trip
That is an interesting point tbf.
I'm not sure why. My next door neighbour in Villefranche is having his place renovated by a Rumanian builder. He's inundated with work because Rumanians in general are in great demand on the Cote d'Azur.
It's nothing to do with money just that Rumanians are particularly good builders. I can't see a principle to object to. I made at least half of my income working abroad and anyway isn't that what capitalism is all about? Invisible earnings and all that?
Lets hope the Springer/Kyle era of manipulating and exploiting often unwell and mentally ill people to air all their secrets and dirty linen in front of the entire world is now over...
Aren’t you describing the Tory leadership election?
LOL!
To be honest, I thought the Tory leadership content would be a lot nastier than it has been?
Give them time...
Besides, we're still in the Westminster rounds. Most of us (are any of the fortunate few, all 121 of them, reading this?) don't really know what is going on. What words are being whispered in what ears.
If there's broadcast nastiness to come, it will be when the competition goes nationwide.
I have a feeling he's going to turn out to be one of the best Prime Minister's we've had. So far he hasn't put a foot wrong and it 's starting to feel like the country's getting it's confidence back. Possibly he'll be the next Atlee.
LOL!!
If you want a buffoon who wears high viz jackets and poses for photo ops all day then he's not for you. But if like most people you just want someone who'll do the right thing for the right reasons and will make sure we get on with our neighbours and don't gratuitously persecute immigrants and will get on with the business of running the government fairly and competently then I don't think we could do much better.
Yes, that’s roger there, lecturing Britain about its racism from the vantage point of Villefranche-sur-Mer, which directly elected Le Pen’s guy in the first round of the election, no need for a second go
Good to have the true Blighty perspective spelled out from... (checks) oh, Kotor.
I met my first montegerin today who has doubts about joining the EU. He’s also the smartest guy I’ve met on this trip. Milos K
Up until Milos everyone I’ve encountered has been keen (like the whole country). He’s about 30 and very clever and he told me “of course I wanted to join but now I look at Croatia, they lost so many workers due to free movement they had to replace them with people from Asia, is that a good idea for us?”
Interesting. Its a fabulous country and this has been a fabulous trip
That is an interesting point tbf.
My next door neighbour in Villefranche is having his place renovated by a Rumanian builder. He's inundated with work because Rumanians in general are in great demand on the Cote d'Azur.
More likely will Reeves still be CoE ? She's been fairly clumsy so far and SKS likes to remind us how ruthless he is, She'll fall on his sword before he does so himself.
In what way has she been 'clumsy'? She has been the opposite – sharp and ruthless. The idea that she should court popularity a few weeks into the parliament to support 'Alanbrooke', the bloke on the internet, and the Tory client vote is for the birds.
The contrast of giving the unions big pay rises and concurrently taking away the winter fuel allowance is clumsy at best and idiotic at worst.
It worked. The strikes are off. The cowardly Tories were fucking hopeless at industrial relations, such that nobody could trust the railway to – you know – actually run a train on time if at all. They were a total and utter failure. In just a few weeks, Labour have achieved more on the railways than the useless Tories did in 14 years.
Or, alternatively, the unions are so undemocratic they want their bought politicians in power, so they will do anything to undermine a Conservative government.
And many unions do tend to have an undemocratic trait running through them.
Whatever gets you through the night. The trains are running again. Just rejoice at that news.
How long before the next strike on the railways, then? Remember ASLEF were going to strike over the management of - nationalised - LNER. I expect more of the same shite soon.
The strikes are off. Those are the facts. Do you remember the shambles under the last government? Clearly you do not.
I remember the strikes by the unions, yes. If you think that there will be no more rail strikes under this government, then I've got a bridge to sell you.
You think the unions are friends of Labour. They're not. They're not friends of the public, either.
“No more strikes” implies there have been some already. There have not. Which is rather my point.
I wouldn't know. I only read the Saturday Times and that takes me all week.
Giles Coren absolutely on fire in the latest. Two columns, one a devastating takedown of junk food, the other a lyrical sensitive naunced appreciation of a luxury safari holiday in Kenya.
"There's something about the African bush at midnight"
The guy can write.
Yes he can. Whether he'd be a writer in the first place without his dear old dad is another question. He might be introducing Year 9 to Shakespeare, although iirc he once regretted not earning squillions in the City.
As for the sentiment, of course there is something about the African bush at midnight. That's why they run luxury safari holidays there!
"A large majority of citizens want a fundamentally different migration policy. Very few consider the government to be competent in combating crime and asylum policy - the AfD does better here than all three traffic light parties combined."
Europe is about to shift brutally to the right on migration and asylum. Everyone will follow where Denmark led. I’ve been saying it on here for a while
Because the alternative is actual Nazis in power. Eventually the voters will rebel and they don’t care if you call them racist
Feeble Sir Keir means Britain will be last to the party
Surely it's weak to capitulate to the racist tendencies of the far right and strong to oppose it? Or did I misunderstand WW2?
Yes you did. If Hitler had kept his racist operations within his own borders, no WW2. Some jolly stern notes perhaps.
There is also the point that capitulating to the er.. Solutions of the Far Right is the problem. Not dealing with the *Problems*.
The Nazis were a reaction to the *Problem* of Germany in the Great Depression and after WWI.
Alternative *Solutions* to geneocide were available. See the US under FDR.
What do you think would have been a better solution to Germanys "Jewish Problem" and need for Lebensraum?
A little bit of Appeasement perhaps?
Germany didn’t *need* lebensraum, the Nazis did as a distraction
No, uniting the German population of Europe by overturning the borders set by the treaty of Versailles was their primary motivation.
That's what appeasers tried to claim and it was just about arguable until Hitler invaded Prague in March 1939. Then it became obvious that uniting the Germans in Europe had done nothing whatever to satisfy his lust for expansion and war. So Chamberlain was converted to Churchill's policy of resisting Nazism, issued guarantees to other European countries including Poland and the rest is history.
If you read his Table Talk, the need for food security from Ukrainian land was his primary motivation. Of course Germany didn't "need" food security, any more than the UK does today, as both countries can import the necessary food. But the crank economics that was fashionable in right-wing German circles at the time thought held that it did.
Harris leads Trump in four of seven swing states, Times poll says
Survey taken by YouGov after Democratic convention suggests the vice-president may be on course to win the electoral college
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in four of the swing states likely to decide the election and is narrowly behind in three others, according to polling for The Times.
It represents a dramatic reversal of fortune in the race for the White House since President Biden withdrew in July, when Trump led in all seven states.
Harris is now ahead in Michigan by five points, Nevada and Wisconsin by three points and by one point in Pennsylvania, YouGov found. Trump retains a slim lead of two points in Arizona and Georgia, and of one point in North Carolina.
I wouldn't know. I only read the Saturday Times and that takes me all week.
Giles Coren absolutely on fire in the latest. Two columns, one a devastating takedown of junk food, the other a lyrical sensitive naunced appreciation of a luxury safari holiday in Kenya.
"There's something about the African bush at midnight"
The guy can write.
Yes he can. Whether he'd be a writer in the first place without his dear old dad is another question. He might be introducing Year 9 to Shakespeare, although iirc he once regretted not earning squillions in the City.
As for the sentiment, of course there is something about the African bush at midnight. That's why they run luxury safari holidays there!
🙂 - can't stand him actually.
Yes, his dad was, and his sister is, considerably more talented.
Lets hope the Springer/Kyle era of manipulating and exploiting often unwell and mentally ill people to air all their secrets and dirty linen in front of the entire world is now over...
Aren’t you describing the Tory leadership election?
LOL!
To be honest, I thought the Tory leadership content would be a lot nastier than it has been?
Suella failing to make the cut helped considerably.
Lets hope the Springer/Kyle era of manipulating and exploiting often unwell and mentally ill people to air all their secrets and dirty linen in front of the entire world is now over...
Aren’t you describing the Tory leadership election?
LOL!
To be honest, I thought the Tory leadership content would be a lot nastier than it has been?
Give them time...
There's some kind of yellow/red card system in place to try and stop them descending into Game of Thrones.
More likely will Reeves still be CoE ? She's been fairly clumsy so far and SKS likes to remind us how ruthless he is, She'll fall on his sword before he does so himself.
In what way has she been 'clumsy'? She has been the opposite – sharp and ruthless. The idea that she should court popularity a few weeks into the parliament to support 'Alanbrooke', the bloke on the internet, and the Tory client vote is for the birds.
The contrast of giving the unions big pay rises and concurrently taking away the winter fuel allowance is clumsy at best and idiotic at worst.
Indeed it is really hard to see why the government prefers to have doctors, nurses and teachers working rather than striking when we could be paying that same money to retired millionaires instead as a little thank you bonus for winning the second world war.
I agree, I am in favour of taking away the WFA from the most selfish generation in history, but the optics look bad.
What they should have done is something like getting rid of the WFA but increasing the pension by that amount but changing the tax allowances for pensioners so the really poor ones would have got it tax free.
In practice, that's what happened. The inflation spike made the triple lock act strangely- pensions got the inflation boost two years ago and the subsequent pay boost last year. Double bubble as they say.
That windfall was was more than the WFA. Granny still has more money after inflation to pay her fuel bills than three years ago. But yes, the politics and optics were awful.
But with nearly five years until the election, that's not something to get excited about.
Whilst I agree with you, I wonder if it would have been any different without the triple lock? I assume that when they finally get the balls to get rid of it (as they should have long ago) they will revert to some tie to inflation. In which case the rises in pensions would have followed a similar trajectoory even if the triple lock had not been there.
Reeves does have the opportunity to do some serious rebalancing and rejigging over the next couple of budgets. Dumping the triple lock and making all income subject to the same tax regimes whilst at the same time getting rid of some of the stupid cliff edges would seem to me to be obvious and generally positive moves. Merging IC and NI would be a braver move but again one I would applaud. The trouble is I am not sure she is really interested in doing anything properly radical and just wants to tinker in favour of her own pressure groups just as the Tories did when they were in power with the pensioners.
Go back to a pure inflation lock, and the energy price spike only enters the calculation once- when it appears in the inflation rate. With the triple lock, the same spike appears in the sums twice. So pensions went up by 10.1 percent in 2023 (in line with inflation), then by 8.4 percent in 2024 (in line with earnings, as they belatedly caught up with the cost of living). Hence the windfall problem for government; a shiny sixpence says that it wasn't in the spending plans.
Pure inflation lock is probably too stingy (though the current generation of pensioners were happy to subject their parents to it). From 1980, the state pension probably did drift too low, hence the need for the TL to gradually nudge it higher, a process that probably needs to run a bit longer. And I'm fairly sure that means-testing the state pension just creates bad incentives not to save. But permanent triple lock is clearly going too far the other way.
The "pure inflation" lock led to the infamous 75p a week rise which Brown got pelters for.
Re Lucy Letby, have we noted this? No new facts but an inportant new strategy. It's going to run and run. This move opens up the possibility of criticising the way the defence was conducted.
Re Lucy Letby, have we noted this? No new facts but an inportant new strategy. It's going to run and run. This move opens up the possibility of criticising the way the defence was conducted.
I'm fed up of hearing about Lucy Letby. Just let her go and put her back on the ward.
More likely will Reeves still be CoE ? She's been fairly clumsy so far and SKS likes to remind us how ruthless he is, She'll fall on his sword before he does so himself.
In what way has she been 'clumsy'? She has been the opposite – sharp and ruthless. The idea that she should court popularity a few weeks into the parliament to support 'Alanbrooke', the bloke on the internet, and the Tory client vote is for the birds.
The contrast of giving the unions big pay rises and concurrently taking away the winter fuel allowance is clumsy at best and idiotic at worst.
Indeed it is really hard to see why the government prefers to have doctors, nurses and teachers working rather than striking when we could be paying that same money to retired millionaires instead as a little thank you bonus for winning the second world war.
I agree, I am in favour of taking away the WFA from the most selfish generation in history, but the optics look bad.
What they should have done is something like getting rid of the WFA but increasing the pension by that amount but changing the tax allowances for pensioners so the really poor ones would have got it tax free.
In practice, that's what happened. The inflation spike made the triple lock act strangely- pensions got the inflation boost two years ago and the subsequent pay boost last year. Double bubble as they say.
That windfall was was more than the WFA. Granny still has more money after inflation to pay her fuel bills than three years ago. But yes, the politics and optics were awful.
But with nearly five years until the election, that's not something to get excited about.
Whilst I agree with you, I wonder if it would have been any different without the triple lock? I assume that when they finally get the balls to get rid of it (as they should have long ago) they will revert to some tie to inflation. In which case the rises in pensions would have followed a similar trajectoory even if the triple lock had not been there.
Reeves does have the opportunity to do some serious rebalancing and rejigging over the next couple of budgets. Dumping the triple lock and making all income subject to the same tax regimes whilst at the same time getting rid of some of the stupid cliff edges would seem to me to be obvious and generally positive moves. Merging IC and NI would be a braver move but again one I would applaud. The trouble is I am not sure she is really interested in doing anything properly radical and just wants to tinker in favour of her own pressure groups just as the Tories did when they were in power with the pensioners.
Once you've made 'all income subject to the same tax regimes', merging ICT and NI is a piece of piss because it will affect no one.
I agree with you but I was talking in terms of the commonly perceived but incorrect notion that NI is not a tax (we have some adherents to this belief on here)
So the 'same tax regimes' initially would apply to all income - pensions, benefits, dividends, interest and everything else. All should have a tax free allowance, a normal rate and a higher rate just like ICT. That seems to me to be the easy sell - or at least easier. Once that is done, convincing the public - especially pensioners - that NI is just another tax that should be rolled in to ICT and applied to all income will be the harder sell. But I think it needs to be done. Certainly getting rid of the NI cut off at pension age should be a priority.
The only way would be to increase the basic rate of ICT by, say, 1.5% and decrease employee's NI by 2% every year. That way working incomes would see their overall tax rate reduce by 0.5% per year while unearned income would see its tax rate increased by 1.5% pa until it matched the rates paid by earners. (This is all for the standard rate payers, a similar exercise can deal with the higher rate taxpayers in one year.)
All done and dusted by the end of this parliament.
Fun fact - Rwanda and Burundi were German colonies until 1916.
I'm not sure the word 'fun' ought to be used in this context. For their reign to be relieved by the Belgians suggests it wasn't so.
What where are the usual defenders of Empire? Didn't they build railways? Didn't it bring benefits as well as harm?
Nobody?
As an aside the fun ended because Germany lost a war - the Great War it was called at the time, not many people have heard of it.
Oh here I've found someone praising the colonial school system in German East Africa - 'Parliamentary Papers volume 24' British Parliamentary report published in 1921:
"The results of their system are today evident in the large number of Natives scattered about the country who are able to read and write.... Whereas the British official may often have had to risk the mutilation of his instructions to a chief by having to send them verbally, the late German system has made it possible to communicate in writing with every Akida and village headman, and in return receive from him reports written in Swahili"
Re Lucy Letby, have we noted this? No new facts but an inportant new strategy. It's going to run and run. This move opens up the possibility of criticising the way the defence was conducted.
I'm fed up of hearing about Lucy Letby. Just let her go and put her back on the ward.
Her nursing career is certainly over whatever happens.
Lets hope the Springer/Kyle era of manipulating and exploiting often unwell and mentally ill people to air all their secrets and dirty linen in front of the entire world is now over...
Aren’t you describing the Tory leadership election?
LOL!
To be honest, I thought the Tory leadership content would be a lot nastier than it has been?
Give them time...
There's some kind of yellow/red card system in place to try and stop them descending into Game of Thrones.
Let's hope it works, the last thing we want is see them all getting their kit off every episode voting round.
Re Lucy Letby, have we noted this? No new facts but an inportant new strategy. It's going to run and run. This move opens up the possibility of criticising the way the defence was conducted.
I'm fed up of hearing about Lucy Letby. Just let her go and put her back on the ward.
I had a quick look, and the UK version of what US TV shows inform me is called "ineffective asssistance of counsel" as grounds for appeal has a very, very high bar.
So we can criticise the way the defence was conducted, but I'm not sure her new lawyers can, or not to much effect.
Harris leads Trump in four of seven swing states, Times poll says
Survey taken by YouGov after Democratic convention suggests the vice-president may be on course to win the electoral college
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in four of the swing states likely to decide the election and is narrowly behind in three others, according to polling for The Times.
It represents a dramatic reversal of fortune in the race for the White House since President Biden withdrew in July, when Trump led in all seven states.
Harris is now ahead in Michigan by five points, Nevada and Wisconsin by three points and by one point in Pennsylvania, YouGov found. Trump retains a slim lead of two points in Arizona and Georgia, and of one point in North Carolina.
I like the idea the most intelligent person you ever meet is the one that agrees with you.
The most intelligent people you meet, are those who can convince you to challenge your own viewpoints.
(Unless you know a maths professor or a rocket designer)
One of the brightest people I know is now a maths graduate who is now a professor at Oxford.
After he graduated I had a conversation with him where I had to explain the causes of the seasons (he thought it was the varying distance of the earth from the sun during the year).
Did he also believe in a flat earth and that Australia is fictional? Because not sure how anyone who knows about the Southern Hemisphere could think that.
Australia is obviously fictional.
- dump convicts in a desert and accidentally create a social democracy? - a national animal that is an egg laying mammal with a duck bill and poisonous thumbs? - black swans? are you taking the piss?
I like the idea the most intelligent person you ever meet is the one that agrees with you.
The most intelligent people you meet, are those who can convince you to challenge your own viewpoints.
(Unless you know a maths professor or a rocket designer)
One of the brightest people I know is now a maths graduate who is now a professor at Oxford.
After he graduated I had a conversation with him where I had to explain the causes of the seasons (he thought it was the varying distance of the earth from the sun during the year).
Did he also believe in a flat earth and that Australia is fictional? Because not sure how anyone who knows about the Southern Hemisphere could think that.
Australia is obviously fictional.
- dump convicts in a desert and accidentally create a social democracy? - a national animal that is an egg laying mammal with a duck bill and poisonous thumbs? - black swans? are you taking the piss?
I like the idea the most intelligent person you ever meet is the one that agrees with you.
The most intelligent people you meet, are those who can convince you to challenge your own viewpoints.
(Unless you know a maths professor or a rocket designer)
One of the brightest people I know is now a maths graduate who is now a professor at Oxford.
After he graduated I had a conversation with him where I had to explain the causes of the seasons (he thought it was the varying distance of the earth from the sun during the year).
Did he also believe in a flat earth and that Australia is fictional? Because not sure how anyone who knows about the Southern Hemisphere could think that.
Australia is obviously fictional.
- dump convicts in a desert and accidentally create a social democracy? - a national animal that is an egg laying mammal with a duck bill and poisonous thumbs? - black swans? are you taking the piss?
Those cricketers who gave Scotland an absolute hammering yesterday don't seem particularly fictional.
Re Lucy Letby, have we noted this? No new facts but an inportant new strategy. It's going to run and run. This move opens up the possibility of criticising the way the defence was conducted.
I'm fed up of hearing about Lucy Letby. Just let her go and put her back on the ward.
Ah yes. The nostalgia… people always saying they were fed up with hearing about the Guildford 4 or Hillsborough….
I like the idea the most intelligent person you ever meet is the one that agrees with you.
The most intelligent people you meet, are those who can convince you to challenge your own viewpoints.
(Unless you know a maths professor or a rocket designer)
One of the brightest people I know is now a maths graduate who is now a professor at Oxford.
After he graduated I had a conversation with him where I had to explain the causes of the seasons (he thought it was the varying distance of the earth from the sun during the year).
Did he also believe in a flat earth and that Australia is fictional? Because not sure how anyone who knows about the Southern Hemisphere could think that.
Australia is obviously fictional.
- dump convicts in a desert and accidentally create a social democracy? - a national animal that is an egg laying mammal with a duck bill and poisonous thumbs? - black swans? are you taking the piss?
I like the idea the most intelligent person you ever meet is the one that agrees with you.
The most intelligent people you meet, are those who can convince you to challenge your own viewpoints.
(Unless you know a maths professor or a rocket designer)
One of the brightest people I know is now a maths graduate who is now a professor at Oxford.
After he graduated I had a conversation with him where I had to explain the causes of the seasons (he thought it was the varying distance of the earth from the sun during the year).
Did he also believe in a flat earth and that Australia is fictional? Because not sure how anyone who knows about the Southern Hemisphere could think that.
Australia is obviously fictional.
- dump convicts in a desert and accidentally create a social democracy? - a national animal that is an egg laying mammal with a duck bill and poisonous thumbs? - black swans? are you taking the piss?
I like the idea the most intelligent person you ever meet is the one that agrees with you.
The most intelligent people you meet, are those who can convince you to challenge your own viewpoints.
(Unless you know a maths professor or a rocket designer)
One of the brightest people I know is now a maths graduate who is now a professor at Oxford.
After he graduated I had a conversation with him where I had to explain the causes of the seasons (he thought it was the varying distance of the earth from the sun during the year).
Did he also believe in a flat earth and that Australia is fictional? Because not sure how anyone who knows about the Southern Hemisphere could think that.
Australia is obviously fictional.
- dump convicts in a desert and accidentally create a social democracy? - a national animal that is an egg laying mammal with a duck bill and poisonous thumbs? - black swans? are you taking the piss?
Those cricketers who gave Scotland an absolute hammering yesterday don't seem particularly fictional.
Hired talent. Obviously.
I’ve even been on the so called flights to so called Australia.
Re Lucy Letby, have we noted this? No new facts but an inportant new strategy. It's going to run and run. This move opens up the possibility of criticising the way the defence was conducted.
I'm fed up of hearing about Lucy Letby. Just let her go and put her back on the ward.
I had a quick look, and the UK version of what US TV shows inform me is called "ineffective asssistance of counsel" as grounds for appeal has a very, very high bar.
So we can criticise the way the defence was conducted, but I'm not sure her new lawyers can, or not to much effect.
This is true, though it is possible to make criticisms of the previous team, and a different outcome in the long run must remain unlikely for a number of reasons, not least the weight of the evidence.
But change of counsel still has an impact. In particular the convicted person can waive privilege, opening up issues such as discussions with counsel and solicitors, and about issues of who was or was not called to give evidence and why.
And it is more feasible, if it gets past the CCRC, (and of course the second trial has not yet been appealed, so it is unploughed ground; success in this would open a can of worms of massive proportions) to make and take appeal points on a wider basis than trial counsel can.
It gives me a chnace to refer to R v Farooqui, a Court of Appeal Criminal Division classic, worthy of a wide audience.
More likely will Reeves still be CoE ? She's been fairly clumsy so far and SKS likes to remind us how ruthless he is, She'll fall on his sword before he does so himself.
In what way has she been 'clumsy'? She has been the opposite – sharp and ruthless. The idea that she should court popularity a few weeks into the parliament to support 'Alanbrooke', the bloke on the internet, and the Tory client vote is for the birds.
The contrast of giving the unions big pay rises and concurrently taking away the winter fuel allowance is clumsy at best and idiotic at worst.
Indeed it is really hard to see why the government prefers to have doctors, nurses and teachers working rather than striking when we could be paying that same money to retired millionaires instead as a little thank you bonus for winning the second world war.
I agree, I am in favour of taking away the WFA from the most selfish generation in history, but the optics look bad.
What they should have done is something like getting rid of the WFA but increasing the pension by that amount but changing the tax allowances for pensioners so the really poor ones would have got it tax free.
In practice, that's what happened. The inflation spike made the triple lock act strangely- pensions got the inflation boost two years ago and the subsequent pay boost last year. Double bubble as they say.
That windfall was was more than the WFA. Granny still has more money after inflation to pay her fuel bills than three years ago. But yes, the politics and optics were awful.
But with nearly five years until the election, that's not something to get excited about.
Whilst I agree with you, I wonder if it would have been any different without the triple lock? I assume that when they finally get the balls to get rid of it (as they should have long ago) they will revert to some tie to inflation. In which case the rises in pensions would have followed a similar trajectoory even if the triple lock had not been there.
Reeves does have the opportunity to do some serious rebalancing and rejigging over the next couple of budgets. Dumping the triple lock and making all income subject to the same tax regimes whilst at the same time getting rid of some of the stupid cliff edges would seem to me to be obvious and generally positive moves. Merging IC and NI would be a braver move but again one I would applaud. The trouble is I am not sure she is really interested in doing anything properly radical and just wants to tinker in favour of her own pressure groups just as the Tories did when they were in power with the pensioners.
Once you've made 'all income subject to the same tax regimes', merging ICT and NI is a piece of piss because it will affect no one.
I agree with you but I was talking in terms of the commonly perceived but incorrect notion that NI is not a tax (we have some adherents to this belief on here)
So the 'same tax regimes' initially would apply to all income - pensions, benefits, dividends, interest and everything else. All should have a tax free allowance, a normal rate and a higher rate just like ICT. That seems to me to be the easy sell - or at least easier. Once that is done, convincing the public - especially pensioners - that NI is just another tax that should be rolled in to ICT and applied to all income will be the harder sell. But I think it needs to be done. Certainly getting rid of the NI cut off at pension age should be a priority.
The essentialist fallacy in all its glory.
Say I take a dead sheep and write 30 on it in a red circle and stick it by the roadside, we could have a really heated debate about whether it was a dead mammal or a road sign but what would be the point? Because even if you win it's a hugely anomalous example of whichever you say it is. Most road signs don't get flyblown and smell bad, most dead mammals don't dictate a maximum speed for motor vehicles, and any dealings with it have to take those anomalies into account. What you are doing is stipulating that NI is a tax, and then in para 2 smuggling in the suggestion that there are no anomalies. If a thing is a tax, it is necessarily "just another" tax. This is not the case. Your harder sell is a fallacy which is why it's unsellable.
Harris leads Trump in four of seven swing states, Times poll says
Survey taken by YouGov after Democratic convention suggests the vice-president may be on course to win the electoral college
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in four of the swing states likely to decide the election and is narrowly behind in three others, according to polling for The Times.
It represents a dramatic reversal of fortune in the race for the White House since President Biden withdrew in July, when Trump led in all seven states.
Harris is now ahead in Michigan by five points, Nevada and Wisconsin by three points and by one point in Pennsylvania, YouGov found. Trump retains a slim lead of two points in Arizona and Georgia, and of one point in North Carolina.
Lets hope the Springer/Kyle era of manipulating and exploiting often unwell and mentally ill people to air all their secrets and dirty linen in front of the entire world is now over...
Aren’t you describing the Tory leadership election?
LOL!
To be honest, I thought the Tory leadership content would be a lot nastier than it has been?
Give them time...
There's some kind of yellow/red card system in place to try and stop them descending into Game of Thrones.
Let's hope it works, the last thing we want is see them all getting their kit off every episode voting round.
Harris leads Trump in four of seven swing states, Times poll says
Survey taken by YouGov after Democratic convention suggests the vice-president may be on course to win the electoral college
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in four of the swing states likely to decide the election and is narrowly behind in three others, according to polling for The Times.
It represents a dramatic reversal of fortune in the race for the White House since President Biden withdrew in July, when Trump led in all seven states.
Harris is now ahead in Michigan by five points, Nevada and Wisconsin by three points and by one point in Pennsylvania, YouGov found. Trump retains a slim lead of two points in Arizona and Georgia, and of one point in North Carolina.
Nate Silver who got 2008 and 2012 bob on, unfortunately believes a very decent Trump win in EC terms on his prediction model.
Last time I checked Silver's model said something like Trump 58% chance of winning with a note attached saying this is because the model is subtracting points from Harris's polling because the DNC recently finished.
It's a long time to go, nobody has a big polling lead, it's basically a toss up. Now I might think Trump looks like a grumpy old perv that nobody in their right minds would vote for so Harris should definitely be favorite. But it's still basically a toss up.
I like the idea the most intelligent person you ever meet is the one that agrees with you.
The most intelligent people you meet, are those who can convince you to challenge your own viewpoints.
(Unless you know a maths professor or a rocket designer)
One of the brightest people I know is now a maths graduate who is now a professor at Oxford.
After he graduated I had a conversation with him where I had to explain the causes of the seasons (he thought it was the varying distance of the earth from the sun during the year).
Did he also believe in a flat earth and that Australia is fictional? Because not sure how anyone who knows about the Southern Hemisphere could think that.
Australia is obviously fictional.
- dump convicts in a desert and accidentally create a social democracy? - a national animal that is an egg laying mammal with a duck bill and poisonous thumbs? - black swans? are you taking the piss?
I like the idea the most intelligent person you ever meet is the one that agrees with you.
The most intelligent people you meet, are those who can convince you to challenge your own viewpoints.
(Unless you know a maths professor or a rocket designer)
One of the brightest people I know is now a maths graduate who is now a professor at Oxford.
After he graduated I had a conversation with him where I had to explain the causes of the seasons (he thought it was the varying distance of the earth from the sun during the year).
Did he also believe in a flat earth and that Australia is fictional? Because not sure how anyone who knows about the Southern Hemisphere could think that.
Australia is obviously fictional.
- dump convicts in a desert and accidentally create a social democracy? - a national animal that is an egg laying mammal with a duck bill and poisonous thumbs? - black swans? are you taking the piss?
I like the idea the most intelligent person you ever meet is the one that agrees with you.
The most intelligent people you meet, are those who can convince you to challenge your own viewpoints.
(Unless you know a maths professor or a rocket designer)
One of the brightest people I know is now a maths graduate who is now a professor at Oxford.
After he graduated I had a conversation with him where I had to explain the causes of the seasons (he thought it was the varying distance of the earth from the sun during the year).
Did he also believe in a flat earth and that Australia is fictional? Because not sure how anyone who knows about the Southern Hemisphere could think that.
Australia is obviously fictional.
- dump convicts in a desert and accidentally create a social democracy? - a national animal that is an egg laying mammal with a duck bill and poisonous thumbs? - black swans? are you taking the piss?
Those cricketers who gave Scotland an absolute hammering yesterday don't seem particularly fictional.
Hired talent. Obviously.
I’ve even been on the so called flights to so called Australia.
It’s a brilliantly done fake, I’ll give you that.
You know it's really in Sinai?
Why do you think we invaded Egypt in 1956? They knew the fiction would be uncovered without a location to take people to. British foreign policy ever since has been geared towards making sure no-one finds out the truth.
Harris leads Trump in four of seven swing states, Times poll says
Survey taken by YouGov after Democratic convention suggests the vice-president may be on course to win the electoral college
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in four of the swing states likely to decide the election and is narrowly behind in three others, according to polling for The Times.
It represents a dramatic reversal of fortune in the race for the White House since President Biden withdrew in July, when Trump led in all seven states.
Harris is now ahead in Michigan by five points, Nevada and Wisconsin by three points and by one point in Pennsylvania, YouGov found. Trump retains a slim lead of two points in Arizona and Georgia, and of one point in North Carolina.
Nate Silver who got 2008 and 2012 bob on, unfortunately believes a very decent Trump win in EC terms on his prediction model.
Last time I checked Silver's model said something like Trump 58% chance of winning with a note attached saying this is because the model is subtracting points from Harris's polling because the DNC recently finished.
It's a long time to go, nobody has a big polling lead, it's basically a toss up. Now I might think Trump looks like a grumpy old perv that nobody in their right minds would vote for so Harris should definitely be favorite. But it's still basically a toss up.
Trump’s a great tosser.
Well, unless he’s asked for an AI image of himself riding a lion…
Re Lucy Letby, have we noted this? No new facts but an inportant new strategy. It's going to run and run. This move opens up the possibility of criticising the way the defence was conducted.
That was surely inevitable. When the focus was on what evidence the defence did not lead there is a clear conflict of interest in their carrying on.
In Scotland we call this an Anderson appeal, based on a case of that name. The court needs to be persuaded that the decisions made by the defence were obviously wrong and not just a matter of professional judgment. It succeeds sometimes but it is a high test.
Harris leads Trump in four of seven swing states, Times poll says
Survey taken by YouGov after Democratic convention suggests the vice-president may be on course to win the electoral college
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in four of the swing states likely to decide the election and is narrowly behind in three others, according to polling for The Times.
It represents a dramatic reversal of fortune in the race for the White House since President Biden withdrew in July, when Trump led in all seven states.
Harris is now ahead in Michigan by five points, Nevada and Wisconsin by three points and by one point in Pennsylvania, YouGov found. Trump retains a slim lead of two points in Arizona and Georgia, and of one point in North Carolina.
Harris leads Trump in four of seven swing states, Times poll says
Survey taken by YouGov after Democratic convention suggests the vice-president may be on course to win the electoral college
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in four of the swing states likely to decide the election and is narrowly behind in three others, according to polling for The Times.
It represents a dramatic reversal of fortune in the race for the White House since President Biden withdrew in July, when Trump led in all seven states.
Harris is now ahead in Michigan by five points, Nevada and Wisconsin by three points and by one point in Pennsylvania, YouGov found. Trump retains a slim lead of two points in Arizona and Georgia, and of one point in North Carolina.
Nate Silver who got 2008 and 2012 bob on, unfortunately believes a very decent Trump win in EC terms on his prediction model.
He was wrong in 2016 and I think he's still a bit scarred by the experience.
Moreover, he also puts it in tossup territory - he is not saying Trump *will* win just that he thinks Trump has a slightly better chance than Harris at this moment.
Harris leads Trump in four of seven swing states, Times poll says
Survey taken by YouGov after Democratic convention suggests the vice-president may be on course to win the electoral college
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in four of the swing states likely to decide the election and is narrowly behind in three others, according to polling for The Times.
It represents a dramatic reversal of fortune in the race for the White House since President Biden withdrew in July, when Trump led in all seven states.
Harris is now ahead in Michigan by five points, Nevada and Wisconsin by three points and by one point in Pennsylvania, YouGov found. Trump retains a slim lead of two points in Arizona and Georgia, and of one point in North Carolina.
Nate Silver who got 2008 and 2012 bob on, unfortunately believes a very decent Trump win in EC terms on his prediction model.
He was wrong in 2016 and I think he's still a bit scarred by the experience.
Moreover, he also puts it in tossup territory - he is not saying Trump *will* win just that he thinks Trump has a slightly better chance than Harris at this moment.
More likely will Reeves still be CoE ? She's been fairly clumsy so far and SKS likes to remind us how ruthless he is, She'll fall on his sword before he does so himself.
In what way has she been 'clumsy'? She has been the opposite – sharp and ruthless. The idea that she should court popularity a few weeks into the parliament to support 'Alanbrooke', the bloke on the internet, and the Tory client vote is for the birds.
The contrast of giving the unions big pay rises and concurrently taking away the winter fuel allowance is clumsy at best and idiotic at worst.
Indeed it is really hard to see why the government prefers to have doctors, nurses and teachers working rather than striking when we could be paying that same money to retired millionaires instead as a little thank you bonus for winning the second world war.
I agree, I am in favour of taking away the WFA from the most selfish generation in history, but the optics look bad.
What they should have done is something like getting rid of the WFA but increasing the pension by that amount but changing the tax allowances for pensioners so the really poor ones would have got it tax free.
In practice, that's what happened. The inflation spike made the triple lock act strangely- pensions got the inflation boost two years ago and the subsequent pay boost last year. Double bubble as they say.
That windfall was was more than the WFA. Granny still has more money after inflation to pay her fuel bills than three years ago. But yes, the politics and optics were awful.
But with nearly five years until the election, that's not something to get excited about.
Whilst I agree with you, I wonder if it would have been any different without the triple lock? I assume that when they finally get the balls to get rid of it (as they should have long ago) they will revert to some tie to inflation. In which case the rises in pensions would have followed a similar trajectoory even if the triple lock had not been there.
Reeves does have the opportunity to do some serious rebalancing and rejigging over the next couple of budgets. Dumping the triple lock and making all income subject to the same tax regimes whilst at the same time getting rid of some of the stupid cliff edges would seem to me to be obvious and generally positive moves. Merging IC and NI would be a braver move but again one I would applaud. The trouble is I am not sure she is really interested in doing anything properly radical and just wants to tinker in favour of her own pressure groups just as the Tories did when they were in power with the pensioners.
Once you've made 'all income subject to the same tax regimes', merging ICT and NI is a piece of piss because it will affect no one.
I agree with you but I was talking in terms of the commonly perceived but incorrect notion that NI is not a tax (we have some adherents to this belief on here)
So the 'same tax regimes' initially would apply to all income - pensions, benefits, dividends, interest and everything else. All should have a tax free allowance, a normal rate and a higher rate just like ICT. That seems to me to be the easy sell - or at least easier. Once that is done, convincing the public - especially pensioners - that NI is just another tax that should be rolled in to ICT and applied to all income will be the harder sell. But I think it needs to be done. Certainly getting rid of the NI cut off at pension age should be a priority.
The essentialist fallacy in all its glory.
Say I take a dead sheep and write 30 on it in a red circle and stick it by the roadside, we could have a really heated debate about whether it was a dead mammal or a road sign but what would be the point? Because even if you win it's a hugely anomalous example of whichever you say it is. Most road signs don't get flyblown and smell bad, most dead mammals don't dictate a maximum speed for motor vehicles, and any dealings with it have to take those anomalies into account. What you are doing is stipulating that NI is a tax, and then in para 2 smuggling in the suggestion that there are no anomalies. If a thing is a tax, it is necessarily "just another" tax. This is not the case. Your harder sell is a fallacy which is why it's unsellable.
What?
Dimness test records true positive shock.
Hint: logic no more cares what it's about than arithmetic does. Two apples and two apples is four apples, two dead sheep and two dead sheep is four dead sheep, etc
More likely will Reeves still be CoE ? She's been fairly clumsy so far and SKS likes to remind us how ruthless he is, She'll fall on his sword before he does so himself.
In what way has she been 'clumsy'? She has been the opposite – sharp and ruthless. The idea that she should court popularity a few weeks into the parliament to support 'Alanbrooke', the bloke on the internet, and the Tory client vote is for the birds.
The contrast of giving the unions big pay rises and concurrently taking away the winter fuel allowance is clumsy at best and idiotic at worst.
Indeed it is really hard to see why the government prefers to have doctors, nurses and teachers working rather than striking when we could be paying that same money to retired millionaires instead as a little thank you bonus for winning the second world war.
I agree, I am in favour of taking away the WFA from the most selfish generation in history, but the optics look bad.
What they should have done is something like getting rid of the WFA but increasing the pension by that amount but changing the tax allowances for pensioners so the really poor ones would have got it tax free.
In practice, that's what happened. The inflation spike made the triple lock act strangely- pensions got the inflation boost two years ago and the subsequent pay boost last year. Double bubble as they say.
That windfall was was more than the WFA. Granny still has more money after inflation to pay her fuel bills than three years ago. But yes, the politics and optics were awful.
But with nearly five years until the election, that's not something to get excited about.
Whilst I agree with you, I wonder if it would have been any different without the triple lock? I assume that when they finally get the balls to get rid of it (as they should have long ago) they will revert to some tie to inflation. In which case the rises in pensions would have followed a similar trajectoory even if the triple lock had not been there.
Reeves does have the opportunity to do some serious rebalancing and rejigging over the next couple of budgets. Dumping the triple lock and making all income subject to the same tax regimes whilst at the same time getting rid of some of the stupid cliff edges would seem to me to be obvious and generally positive moves. Merging IC and NI would be a braver move but again one I would applaud. The trouble is I am not sure she is really interested in doing anything properly radical and just wants to tinker in favour of her own pressure groups just as the Tories did when they were in power with the pensioners.
Once you've made 'all income subject to the same tax regimes', merging ICT and NI is a piece of piss because it will affect no one.
I agree with you but I was talking in terms of the commonly perceived but incorrect notion that NI is not a tax (we have some adherents to this belief on here)
So the 'same tax regimes' initially would apply to all income - pensions, benefits, dividends, interest and everything else. All should have a tax free allowance, a normal rate and a higher rate just like ICT. That seems to me to be the easy sell - or at least easier. Once that is done, convincing the public - especially pensioners - that NI is just another tax that should be rolled in to ICT and applied to all income will be the harder sell. But I think it needs to be done. Certainly getting rid of the NI cut off at pension age should be a priority.
The essentialist fallacy in all its glory.
Say I take a dead sheep and write 30 on it in a red circle and stick it by the roadside, we could have a really heated debate about whether it was a dead mammal or a road sign but what would be the point? Because even if you win it's a hugely anomalous example of whichever you say it is. Most road signs don't get flyblown and smell bad, most dead mammals don't dictate a maximum speed for motor vehicles, and any dealings with it have to take those anomalies into account. What you are doing is stipulating that NI is a tax, and then in para 2 smuggling in the suggestion that there are no anomalies. If a thing is a tax, it is necessarily "just another" tax. This is not the case. Your harder sell is a fallacy which is why it's unsellable.
According to international treaties, employees NI is defined as an income tax. By both the UK government and other governments.
Any definition I have ever seen in a treaty has expressly been for the purposes of that treaty only. Good luck telling the voters that their point that if you call something insurance, and make representations to the payer about benefits they can expect to receive commensurate with the payments, it looks a bit like insurance and a pension plan, sounds reasonable, but see appendix 3 to the Laccadive Islands dual taxation agreement 1958.
Its a f***ing tax, it doesn't matter what you call it, its a tax levied by HMRC on employees wages.
Its not just in the small print, its exactly what it always has been.
Only those who are absolute wilful idiots think its anything other than a tax.
And dolphins swim in the sea and have fins, so what sort of scumbag would argue they were anything other than fishes?
Dolphins, however, don’t have scales, so they’re not kosher, AIUI.
Germany looking at resurrecting our Rwanda policy. If they do I'll bet there won't be the same outrage as before or any opposition from Strasbourg, they save that just for us.
I’ve been watching the Tory leadership campaign so far, and thinking back over the election in July. And you know what? I think politics is becoming quite normal again after nearly a decade of abnormality and shrieky hysteria.
We have a Labour government that’s not exciting people and is being criticised by its opponents as a bit incompetent and meh. Not a danger to civilisation, not evil, just a bit rubbish.
We have an official opposition having a leadership contest that’s so far remarkably lacking in hysteria or intrigue. And being criticised by onlookers as a bit uninspiring.
We have the Lib Dems doing their traditional role of constituency campaigns and running councils, not trying to keep the UK in the EU.
Yes we have a populist right party in parliament but last I saw of one of them it was Richard Tice making some half baked arguments about wind farms to Ed Miliband.
There’s no major constitutional emergency, no pandemic, the big war is 2 years old.
Politics has returned to normality but I’m not sure we’re all mentally ready for it yet. It’s going to take some getting used to.
Possibly the calm before the Trump storm, but maybe not.
Germany looking at resurrecting our Rwanda policy. If they do I'll bet there won't be the same outrage as before or any opposition from Strasbourg, they save that just for us.
Yes it’s been done. Yes it’s a different policy - offshore processing not a completely immoral one way ticket. Yes it’s also probably an expensive gimmick.
Germany looking at resurrecting our Rwanda policy. If they do I'll bet there won't be the same outrage as before or any opposition from Strasbourg, they save that just for us.
I’m not certain that @IshmaelZ ’s return to PB has been an unalloyed success. Impenetrable rants and personal abuse aren’t my thing. YMMV.
Oh is he back?
I've been here since 2006 and seen a lot of odd characters come and go but he was the only one that actually made me concerned when he started abusing me...
What worries me about Europe going for the Rwanda deal and Labour not having the balls to push it through is that it will increase the pull factor for illegal immigrants to come to the UK if they believe that staying in the EU will result in a one way ticket to Rwanda.
Labour made a very poor decision to rule out offshore asylum seeker hosting and it may result reform breaching the 25% mark in the polls if Europe makes it work and we're not doing it.
I’m not certain that @IshmaelZ ’s return to PB has been an unalloyed success. Impenetrable rants and personal abuse aren’t my thing. YMMV.
Oh is he back?
I've been here since 2006 and seen a lot of odd characters come and go but he was the only one that actually made me concerned when he started abusing me...
Yes, he was/is a sinister figure. I fear he might walk among us again.
I’m not certain that @IshmaelZ ’s return to PB has been an unalloyed success. Impenetrable rants and personal abuse aren’t my thing. YMMV.
Oh is he back?
I've been here since 2006 and seen a lot of odd characters come and go but he was the only one that actually made me concerned when he started abusing me...
Yes, he was/is a sinister figure. I fear he might walk among us again.
I have a feeling he's going to turn out to be one of the best Prime Minister's we've had. So far he hasn't put a foot wrong and it 's starting to feel like the country's getting it's confidence back. Possibly he'll be the next Atlee.
LOL!!
If you want a buffoon who wears high viz jackets and poses for photo ops all day then he's not for you. But if like most people you just want someone who'll do the right thing for the right reasons and will make sure we get on with our neighbours and don't gratuitously persecute immigrants and will get on with the business of running the government fairly and competently then I don't think we could do much better.
Yes, that’s roger there, lecturing Britain about its racism from the vantage point of Villefranche-sur-Mer, which directly elected Le Pen’s guy in the first round of the election, no need for a second go
Good to have the true Blighty perspective spelled out from... (checks) oh, Kotor.
I met my first montegerin today who has doubts about joining the EU. He’s also the smartest guy I’ve met on this trip. Milos K
Up until Milos everyone I’ve encountered has been keen (like the whole country). He’s about 30 and very clever and he told me “of course I wanted to join but now I look at Croatia, they lost so many workers due to free movement they had to replace them with people from Asia, is that a good idea for us?”
Interesting. Its a fabulous country and this has been a fabulous trip
That is an interesting point tbf.
I'm not sure why. My next door neighbour in Villefranche is having his place renovated by a Rumanian builder. He's inundated with work because Rumanians in general are in great demand on the Cote d'Azur.
It's nothing to do with money just that Rumanians are particularly good builders. I can't see a principle to object to. I made at least half of my income working abroad and anyway isn't that what capitalism is all about? Invisible earnings and all that?
The point that's interesting is that rich areas sucking in great tradesmen from poorer areas leaves the poorer areas... even poorer.
I am pro freedom of movement across Europe and wish we had stayed in the EU but I can see that this is an issue for area that export their brightest and best.
Lets hope the Springer/Kyle era of manipulating and exploiting often unwell and mentally ill people to air all their secrets and dirty linen in front of the entire world is now over...
Aren’t you describing the Tory leadership election?
LOL!
To be honest, I thought the Tory leadership content would be a lot nastier than it has been?
Give them time...
There's some kind of yellow/red card system in place to try and stop them descending into Game of Thrones.
Let's hope it works, the last thing we want is see them all getting their kit off every episode voting round.
Germany looking at resurrecting our Rwanda policy. If they do I'll bet there won't be the same outrage as before or any opposition from Strasbourg, they save that just for us.
Yes it’s been done. Yes it’s a different policy - offshore processing not a completely immoral one way ticket. Yes it’s also probably an expensive gimmick.
The problem is that it was always a contradiction. It only works as a deterrent if being sent there is perceived to be a fate worse than death, it only passes the courts if it can be dressed up as something akin to an extended club med holiday. My experience of subsaharan Africa is that it's great (but scary) if you are a white man with credit cards and US dollars and a UK passport, otherwise fate worse than death is pretty close to the mark - no safety nets for anyone, least of all deportees.
I have a feeling he's going to turn out to be one of the best Prime Minister's we've had. So far he hasn't put a foot wrong and it 's starting to feel like the country's getting it's confidence back. Possibly he'll be the next Atlee.
LOL!!
If you want a buffoon who wears high viz jackets and poses for photo ops all day then he's not for you. But if like most people you just want someone who'll do the right thing for the right reasons and will make sure we get on with our neighbours and don't gratuitously persecute immigrants and will get on with the business of running the government fairly and competently then I don't think we could do much better.
Yes, that’s roger there, lecturing Britain about its racism from the vantage point of Villefranche-sur-Mer, which directly elected Le Pen’s guy in the first round of the election, no need for a second go
Good to have the true Blighty perspective spelled out from... (checks) oh, Kotor.
I met my first montegerin today who has doubts about joining the EU. He’s also the smartest guy I’ve met on this trip. Milos K
Up until Milos everyone I’ve encountered has been keen (like the whole country). He’s about 30 and very clever and he told me “of course I wanted to join but now I look at Croatia, they lost so many workers due to free movement they had to replace them with people from Asia, is that a good idea for us?”
Interesting. Its a fabulous country and this has been a fabulous trip
That is an interesting point tbf.
I'm not sure why. My next door neighbour in Villefranche is having his place renovated by a Rumanian builder. He's inundated with work because Rumanians in general are in great demand on the Cote d'Azur.
It's nothing to do with money just that Rumanians are particularly good builders. I can't see a principle to object to. I made at least half of my income working abroad and anyway isn't that what capitalism is all about? Invisible earnings and all that?
The point that's interesting is that rich areas sucking in great tradesmen from poorer areas leaves the poorer areas... even poorer.
I am pro freedom of movement across Europe and wish we had stayed in the EU but I can see that this is an issue for area that export their brightest and best.
GDP growth and other economic metrics look pretty good for Romania, so don't get too worried. A lot of artisans working abroad head home after a few years bringing new skills and tastes to the old country.
It's truly baffling that Starmer ditched the previous government's Rwanda scheme. After all, it was such a roaring success. Thousands of bogus asylum seekers were not flown to Rwanda, and the deterrent effect led to a rise this year in boat crossings. And, of course, it was such excellent value for money. What is he playing at? Does he really think the money might be better spent on processing the huge backlog of asylum seekers in the system that he inherited?
What worries me about Europe going for the Rwanda deal and Labour not having the balls to push it through is that it will increase the pull factor for illegal immigrants to come to the UK if they believe that staying in the EU will result in a one way ticket to Rwanda.
Labour made a very poor decision to rule out offshore asylum seeker hosting and it may result reform breaching the 25% mark in the polls if Europe makes it work and we're not doing it.
Except it won’t be a one way ticket if it’s as currently proposed by several countries. In any case we only get a tiny fraction of the European flow anyway - generally people with relatives here or English speakers.
UK can do a lot to get its act together on asylum, speed up processing, speed deportations, rapidly integrate successful refugees into the labour market etc.
"A large majority of citizens want a fundamentally different migration policy. Very few consider the government to be competent in combating crime and asylum policy - the AfD does better here than all three traffic light parties combined."
Europe is about to shift brutally to the right on migration and asylum. Everyone will follow where Denmark led. I’ve been saying it on here for a while
Because the alternative is actual Nazis in power. Eventually the voters will rebel and they don’t care if you call them racist
Feeble Sir Keir means Britain will be last to the party
Given the problem in Britain is primarily with irregular migration from that war-torn hellscape not fit for human habitation, France, that might just solve Sir Keir's problem without him having to actually do anything.
C’est vrait
Starmer might get incredibly lucky if and when the EU gets brutal on migration as, perforce, that means far fewer will reach the channel
My bet is he’ll still allow masses of legal migration however, so I don’t think this issue is going away even then
Britain's visually impaired javelin thrower broke the world record twice today. Not sure I would like tickets for that event, especially knowing he can throw it a long way.
What worries me about Europe going for the Rwanda deal and Labour not having the balls to push it through is that it will increase the pull factor for illegal immigrants to come to the UK if they believe that staying in the EU will result in a one way ticket to Rwanda.
Labour made a very poor decision to rule out offshore asylum seeker hosting and it may result reform breaching the 25% mark in the polls if Europe makes it work and we're not doing it.
Except it won’t be a one way ticket if it’s as currently proposed by several countries. In any case we only get a tiny fraction of the European flow anyway - generally people with relatives here or English speakers.
UK can do a lot to get its act together on asylum, speed up processing, speed deportations, rapidly integrate successful refugees into the labour market etc.
BBC report has some French people blaming the ease of work in the U.K. without checks etc as one of the bigger pulls. So easy to shut down too - ID card linked to NI number and proper checking of all those restaurants, car washes and Turkish barbers.
I have a feeling he's going to turn out to be one of the best Prime Minister's we've had. So far he hasn't put a foot wrong and it 's starting to feel like the country's getting it's confidence back. Possibly he'll be the next Atlee.
LOL!!
If you want a buffoon who wears high viz jackets and poses for photo ops all day then he's not for you. But if like most people you just want someone who'll do the right thing for the right reasons and will make sure we get on with our neighbours and don't gratuitously persecute immigrants and will get on with the business of running the government fairly and competently then I don't think we could do much better.
Yes, that’s roger there, lecturing Britain about its racism from the vantage point of Villefranche-sur-Mer, which directly elected Le Pen’s guy in the first round of the election, no need for a second go
Good to have the true Blighty perspective spelled out from... (checks) oh, Kotor.
I met my first montegerin today who has doubts about joining the EU. He’s also the smartest guy I’ve met on this trip. Milos K
Up until Milos everyone I’ve encountered has been keen (like the whole country). He’s about 30 and very clever and he told me “of course I wanted to join but now I look at Croatia, they lost so many workers due to free movement they had to replace them with people from Asia, is that a good idea for us?”
Interesting. Its a fabulous country and this has been a fabulous trip
That is an interesting point tbf.
I'm not sure why. My next door neighbour in Villefranche is having his place renovated by a Rumanian builder. He's inundated with work because Rumanians in general are in great demand on the Cote d'Azur.
It's nothing to do with money just that Rumanians are particularly good builders. I can't see a principle to object to. I made at least half of my income working abroad and anyway isn't that what capitalism is all about? Invisible earnings and all that?
The point that's interesting is that rich areas sucking in great tradesmen from poorer areas leaves the poorer areas... even poorer.
I am pro freedom of movement across Europe and wish we had stayed in the EU but I can see that this is an issue for area that export their brightest and best.
GDP growth and other economic metrics look pretty good for Romania, so don't get too worried. A lot of artisans working abroad head home after a few years bringing new skills and tastes to the old country.
I have had some tiling and some plumbing done by Romanians over recent years. Admirable reliability, work ethic and quality of work. Good value too.
Romanians dominated the vineyard labour market for years. Romania has a viticultural heritage of course, and at the time of accession it was one oh the lowest wage economies so the draw of Italy (in particular), Spain and France was massive. The UK industry was also disproportionately Romanian.
In recent years they have left or become bosses of agri labour companies, making way first for Moldovans and more recently everyone from Uzbeks to Nepalis. There is a pretty fluid two way street between Western Europe and Romania. I think it benefits both sides.
What worries me about Europe going for the Rwanda deal and Labour not having the balls to push it through is that it will increase the pull factor for illegal immigrants to come to the UK if they believe that staying in the EU will result in a one way ticket to Rwanda.
Labour made a very poor decision to rule out offshore asylum seeker hosting and it may result reform breaching the 25% mark in the polls if Europe makes it work and we're not doing it.
Except it won’t be a one way ticket if it’s as currently proposed by several countries. In any case we only get a tiny fraction of the European flow anyway - generally people with relatives here or English speakers.
UK can do a lot to get its act together on asylum, speed up processing, speed deportations, rapidly integrate successful refugees into the labour market etc.
BBC report has some French people blaming the ease of work in the U.K. without checks etc as one of the bigger pulls. So easy to shut down too - ID card linked to NI number and proper checking of all those restaurants, car washes and Turkish barbers.
Some targeted crackdown on Deliveroo substitute drivers etc. could do wonders.
I was against ID cards when Blair propsoed them, but I think my opposition might soften if they were proposed again - details dependent, of course.
I’ve been watching the Tory leadership campaign so far, and thinking back over the election in July. And you know what? I think politics is becoming quite normal again after nearly a decade of abnormality and shrieky hysteria.
We have a Labour government that’s not exciting people and is being criticised by its opponents as a bit incompetent and meh. Not a danger to civilisation, not evil, just a bit rubbish.
We have an official opposition having a leadership contest that’s so far remarkably lacking in hysteria or intrigue. And being criticised by onlookers as a bit uninspiring.
We have the Lib Dems doing their traditional role of constituency campaigns and running councils, not trying to keep the UK in the EU.
Yes we have a populist right party in parliament but last I saw of one of them it was Richard Tice making some half baked arguments about wind farms to Ed Miliband.
There’s no major constitutional emergency, no pandemic, the big war is 2 years old.
Politics has returned to normality but I’m not sure we’re all mentally ready for it yet. It’s going to take some getting used to.
Possibly the calm before the Trump storm, but maybe not.
If Trump loses and he doesn't manage to get the paramilitary nutjob proudboy-types onto the streets in protest at stolen election then we may well be entering a more sane period of governance.
What worries me about Europe going for the Rwanda deal and Labour not having the balls to push it through is that it will increase the pull factor for illegal immigrants to come to the UK if they believe that staying in the EU will result in a one way ticket to Rwanda.
Labour made a very poor decision to rule out offshore asylum seeker hosting and it may result reform breaching the 25% mark in the polls if Europe makes it work and we're not doing it.
Except it won’t be a one way ticket if it’s as currently proposed by several countries. In any case we only get a tiny fraction of the European flow anyway - generally people with relatives here or English speakers.
UK can do a lot to get its act together on asylum, speed up processing, speed deportations, rapidly integrate successful refugees into the labour market etc.
BBC report has some French people blaming the ease of work in the U.K. without checks etc as one of the bigger pulls. So easy to shut down too - ID card linked to NI number and proper checking of all those restaurants, car washes and Turkish barbers.
ID cards would do a lot to help all sorts of areas of public life. But don’t tell my Lib Dem colleagues that or I’ll be (gently) lynched.
What worries me about Europe going for the Rwanda deal and Labour not having the balls to push it through is that it will increase the pull factor for illegal immigrants to come to the UK if they believe that staying in the EU will result in a one way ticket to Rwanda.
Labour made a very poor decision to rule out offshore asylum seeker hosting and it may result reform breaching the 25% mark in the polls if Europe makes it work and we're not doing it.
Except it won’t be a one way ticket if it’s as currently proposed by several countries. In any case we only get a tiny fraction of the European flow anyway - generally people with relatives here or English speakers.
UK can do a lot to get its act together on asylum, speed up processing, speed deportations, rapidly integrate successful refugees into the labour market etc.
BBC report has some French people blaming the ease of work in the U.K. without checks etc as one of the bigger pulls. So easy to shut down too - ID card linked to NI number and proper checking of all those restaurants, car washes and Turkish barbers.
ID cards would do a lot to help all sorts of areas of public life. But don’t tell my Lib Dem colleagues that or I’ll be (gently) lynched.
We already have laws which say ID must be proven to take a job or rent a flat. So the question is, if we had ID cards, what's the list of things they would be required for?
What worries me about Europe going for the Rwanda deal and Labour not having the balls to push it through is that it will increase the pull factor for illegal immigrants to come to the UK if they believe that staying in the EU will result in a one way ticket to Rwanda.
Labour made a very poor decision to rule out offshore asylum seeker hosting and it may result reform breaching the 25% mark in the polls if Europe makes it work and we're not doing it.
Except it won’t be a one way ticket if it’s as currently proposed by several countries. In any case we only get a tiny fraction of the European flow anyway - generally people with relatives here or English speakers.
UK can do a lot to get its act together on asylum, speed up processing, speed deportations, rapidly integrate successful refugees into the labour market etc.
BBC report has some French people blaming the ease of work in the U.K. without checks etc as one of the bigger pulls. So easy to shut down too - ID card linked to NI number and proper checking of all those restaurants, car washes and Turkish barbers.
ID cards would do a lot to help all sorts of areas of public life. But don’t tell my Lib Dem colleagues that or I’ll be (gently) lynched.
Lib Dems don't lynch, not even gently. You'll be beaten with sandals.
Germany looking at resurrecting our Rwanda policy. If they do I'll bet there won't be the same outrage as before or any opposition from Strasbourg, they save that just for us.
What worries me about Europe going for the Rwanda deal and Labour not having the balls to push it through is that it will increase the pull factor for illegal immigrants to come to the UK if they believe that staying in the EU will result in a one way ticket to Rwanda.
Labour made a very poor decision to rule out offshore asylum seeker hosting and it may result reform breaching the 25% mark in the polls if Europe makes it work and we're not doing it.
Except it won’t be a one way ticket if it’s as currently proposed by several countries. In any case we only get a tiny fraction of the European flow anyway - generally people with relatives here or English speakers.
UK can do a lot to get its act together on asylum, speed up processing, speed deportations, rapidly integrate successful refugees into the labour market etc.
BBC report has some French people blaming the ease of work in the U.K. without checks etc as one of the bigger pulls. So easy to shut down too - ID card linked to NI number and proper checking of all those restaurants, car washes and Turkish barbers.
People working illegally are rarely small boat arrivals, more likely overstayed.
People claiming asylum are not allowed to work (at least for a year) and working illegally is quite a severely punishable breach. So mostly they just hang around, waiting for Godot in their accommodation,
What worries me about Europe going for the Rwanda deal and Labour not having the balls to push it through is that it will increase the pull factor for illegal immigrants to come to the UK if they believe that staying in the EU will result in a one way ticket to Rwanda.
Labour made a very poor decision to rule out offshore asylum seeker hosting and it may result reform breaching the 25% mark in the polls if Europe makes it work and we're not doing it.
Except it won’t be a one way ticket if it’s as currently proposed by several countries. In any case we only get a tiny fraction of the European flow anyway - generally people with relatives here or English speakers.
UK can do a lot to get its act together on asylum, speed up processing, speed deportations, rapidly integrate successful refugees into the labour market etc.
BBC report has some French people blaming the ease of work in the U.K. without checks etc as one of the bigger pulls. So easy to shut down too - ID card linked to NI number and proper checking of all those restaurants, car washes and Turkish barbers.
People working illegally are rarely small boat arrivals, more likely overstayed.
People claiming asylum are not allowed to work (at least for a year) and working illegally is quite a severely punishable breach. So mostly they just hang around, waiting for Godot in their accommodation,
Some on this board have claimed that the first choice of boat arrivals is to work illegaly, and claiming asylum is what they do when caught.
Off topic, but probably of interest to many here: "Vice President Harris made a policy break from President Biden on Wednesday by calling for a lower tax increase on capital gains than what the president had proposed.
Although higher than the current level, 28 percent is a very "Republican" level, going all the way back to 1980.
(For the record: I'd be inclined to support that, especially if it were combined with closing the "carried interest" loophole, and forbidding companies from buying their own stock.)
I have a feeling he's going to turn out to be one of the best Prime Minister's we've had. So far he hasn't put a foot wrong and it 's starting to feel like the country's getting it's confidence back. Possibly he'll be the next Atlee.
LOL!!
If you want a buffoon who wears high viz jackets and poses for photo ops all day then he's not for you. But if like most people you just want someone who'll do the right thing for the right reasons and will make sure we get on with our neighbours and don't gratuitously persecute immigrants and will get on with the business of running the government fairly and competently then I don't think we could do much better.
Yes, that’s roger there, lecturing Britain about its racism from the vantage point of Villefranche-sur-Mer, which directly elected Le Pen’s guy in the first round of the election, no need for a second go
Good to have the true Blighty perspective spelled out from... (checks) oh, Kotor.
I met my first montegerin today who has doubts about joining the EU. He’s also the smartest guy I’ve met on this trip. Milos K
Up until Milos everyone I’ve encountered has been keen (like the whole country). He’s about 30 and very clever and he told me “of course I wanted to join but now I look at Croatia, they lost so many workers due to free movement they had to replace them with people from Asia, is that a good idea for us?”
Interesting. Its a fabulous country and this has been a fabulous trip
That is an interesting point tbf.
I'm not sure why. My next door neighbour in Villefranche is having his place renovated by a Rumanian builder. He's inundated with work because Rumanians in general are in great demand on the Cote d'Azur.
It's nothing to do with money just that Rumanians are particularly good builders. I can't see a principle to object to. I made at least half of my income working abroad and anyway isn't that what capitalism is all about? Invisible earnings and all that?
The point that's interesting is that rich areas sucking in great tradesmen from poorer areas leaves the poorer areas... even poorer.
I am pro freedom of movement across Europe and wish we had stayed in the EU but I can see that this is an issue for area that export their brightest and best.
The builder tells me he could fill all his time working in France several times over but goes home every two or three weeks to see his family and he's building himself a house. He's also booked up six months in advance.
It's quite different from being forced to go to go abroad to work out of poverty. I imagine the next generation of builders are already servicing the local Rumanian market. It's strange that in the UK most think of Rumanians as Big issue sellers whereas in the South of france they're very valued builders and tradesmen. Lots of irish barmen and women as well. Just a nice place to work I guess
On the state pension. The current full rate is £11,502 a year. In 2022 it was £9,627 a year. So that's an increase of £1,875 in 2 years, thanks to the triple lock. And, of course, a fair bit of that increase is accounted for by inflationary energy costs. In that context, the fuel allowance of £300 is not, I think, as big a deal as people make it out to be - essentially it means that the pension has risen by £1,575 rather than £1,875 over two years.
I want to correct this to the WFA is only £300 for those 80
Which, in general, makes its loss even less of a deal.
There are very many pensioners who are outside the means testing where it will be a very big deal this winter and why so many mps are opposed to it including the lib dems and a number of labour mps who are very worried
🎻
There are very many working families who struggle and they haven't all got triple locked above-inflation wage rises.
Why should we worry more about pensioners than anyone else? Especially when infants are the most vulnerable and need heating the most, not pensioners, and there's more infants at home in working families than in pensioner families.
We live in a country that has always accepted the elderly are declining in health, cannot increase their income, and as they become more vulnerable need to be looked after and respected having worked a long life and paid all their taxes
The state pension is inadequate and so additional support is needed and has been recognised by all governments
We live in a country that is spending far too much on welfare and taxing wages far too highly - and that welfare is almost entirely going now to pensioners, not the unemployed.
There is no need to give well off pensioners unearned welfare payments that they neither need nor deserve.
What worries me about Europe going for the Rwanda deal and Labour not having the balls to push it through is that it will increase the pull factor for illegal immigrants to come to the UK if they believe that staying in the EU will result in a one way ticket to Rwanda.
Labour made a very poor decision to rule out offshore asylum seeker hosting and it may result reform breaching the 25% mark in the polls if Europe makes it work and we're not doing it.
Except it won’t be a one way ticket if it’s as currently proposed by several countries. In any case we only get a tiny fraction of the European flow anyway - generally people with relatives here or English speakers.
UK can do a lot to get its act together on asylum, speed up processing, speed deportations, rapidly integrate successful refugees into the labour market etc.
BBC report has some French people blaming the ease of work in the U.K. without checks etc as one of the bigger pulls. So easy to shut down too - ID card linked to NI number and proper checking of all those restaurants, car washes and Turkish barbers.
ID cards would do a lot to help all sorts of areas of public life. But don’t tell my Lib Dem colleagues that or I’ll be (gently) lynched.
We already have laws which say ID must be proven to take a job or rent a flat. So the question is, if we had ID cards, what's the list of things they would be required for?
Linked to NI card, entitlement to benefits and other state support, age ID, driving licence, health records, do away with passports or at least capture visa data on them and do a deal allowing ID cards to be used for entry into EU states, lots of things.
Off topic, but probably of interest to many here: "Vice President Harris made a policy break from President Biden on Wednesday by calling for a lower tax increase on capital gains than what the president had proposed.
Although higher than the current level, 28 percent is a very "Republican" level, going all the way back to 1980.
(For the record: I'd be inclined to support that, especially if it were combined with closing the "carried interest" loophole, and forbidding companies from buying their own stock.)
My US counterpart was asking me yesterday if she thinks the UK reforming the rules around carried interest (actually probably just requires a change in HMRC practice) is going to happen, because it’ll be a handy precedent for over there. So I think they may well move on this if they can resist the inevitably fierce lobbying.
What worries me about Europe going for the Rwanda deal and Labour not having the balls to push it through is that it will increase the pull factor for illegal immigrants to come to the UK if they believe that staying in the EU will result in a one way ticket to Rwanda.
Labour made a very poor decision to rule out offshore asylum seeker hosting and it may result reform breaching the 25% mark in the polls if Europe makes it work and we're not doing it.
Except it won’t be a one way ticket if it’s as currently proposed by several countries. In any case we only get a tiny fraction of the European flow anyway - generally people with relatives here or English speakers.
UK can do a lot to get its act together on asylum, speed up processing, speed deportations, rapidly integrate successful refugees into the labour market etc.
BBC report has some French people blaming the ease of work in the U.K. without checks etc as one of the bigger pulls. So easy to shut down too - ID card linked to NI number and proper checking of all those restaurants, car washes and Turkish barbers.
ID cards would do a lot to help all sorts of areas of public life. But don’t tell my Lib Dem colleagues that or I’ll be (gently) lynched.
We already have laws which say ID must be proven to take a job or rent a flat. So the question is, if we had ID cards, what's the list of things they would be required for?
Linked to NI card, entitlement to benefits and other state support, age ID, driving licence, health records, do away with passports or at least capture visa data on them and do a deal allowing ID cards to be used for entry into EU states, lots of things.
I was thinking more of the minimal set required to deal with illegal immigration rather than the maximal use...
I'm curious Big G since you want a violin for having paid "all your taxes" - how much in National Insurance have you paid on your income for the past decade? When you receive a higher, triple-locked pension in the next year ahead, how much NI will you pay on that?
We have pensioners receiving triple locked pensions that haven't paid their taxes like NI in two decades or more now, so they're not paying all taxes.
And more importantly, the country is out of money and has mountains of debt and a huge deficit.
We can't afford to keep throwing even more taxpayers money away at people who aren't working and don't need the money. That used to be a Conservative principle.
Off topic, but probably of interest to many here: "Vice President Harris made a policy break from President Biden on Wednesday by calling for a lower tax increase on capital gains than what the president had proposed.
Although higher than the current level, 28 percent is a very "Republican" level, going all the way back to 1980.
(For the record: I'd be inclined to support that, especially if it were combined with closing the "carried interest" loophole, and forbidding companies from buying their own stock.)
My US counterpart was asking me yesterday if she thinks the UK reforming the rules around carried interest (actually probably just requires a change in HMRC practice) is going to happen, because it’ll be a handy precedent for over there. So I think they may well move on this if they can resist the inevitably fierce lobbying.
The ICAEW published its lobbying earlier this week.
ICAEW considers that the current taxation of carried interest in the UK is on a par with taxes charged in other countries, and that any changes could adversely affect the level of investments made in growing UK businesses, as well as delaying new investments. ICAEW is concerned that any disruption to the agreement reached with the industry on taxation of returns from PE could damage this valuable part of the UK economy.
"A large majority of citizens want a fundamentally different migration policy. Very few consider the government to be competent in combating crime and asylum policy - the AfD does better here than all three traffic light parties combined."
Europe is about to shift brutally to the right on migration and asylum. Everyone will follow where Denmark led. I’ve been saying it on here for a while
Because the alternative is actual Nazis in power. Eventually the voters will rebel and they don’t care if you call them racist
Feeble Sir Keir means Britain will be last to the party
Given the problem in Britain is primarily with irregular migration from that war-torn hellscape not fit for human habitation, France, that might just solve Sir Keir's problem without him having to actually do anything.
C’est vrait
Starmer might get incredibly lucky if and when the EU gets brutal on migration as, perforce, that means far fewer will reach the channel
My bet is he’ll still allow masses of legal migration however, so I don’t think this issue is going away even then
"A large majority of citizens want a fundamentally different migration policy. Very few consider the government to be competent in combating crime and asylum policy - the AfD does better here than all three traffic light parties combined."
Europe is about to shift brutally to the right on migration and asylum. Everyone will follow where Denmark led. I’ve been saying it on here for a while
Because the alternative is actual Nazis in power. Eventually the voters will rebel and they don’t care if you call them racist
Feeble Sir Keir means Britain will be last to the party
Given the problem in Britain is primarily with irregular migration from that war-torn hellscape not fit for human habitation, France, that might just solve Sir Keir's problem without him having to actually do anything.
C’est vrait
Starmer might get incredibly lucky if and when the EU gets brutal on migration as, perforce, that means far fewer will reach the channel
My bet is he’ll still allow masses of legal migration however, so I don’t think this issue is going away even then
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz075r18ekvo
Lets hope the Springer/Kyle era of manipulating and exploiting often unwell and mentally ill people to air all their secrets and dirty linen in front of the entire world is now over...
It's one thing to pay all the taxes that the government requires of you. Doesn't mean that those taxes are sufficient to keep taxpayers in the style to which they would like to become accustomed.
The state pension is not adequate notwithstanding the recent rises, and it seems a certainty that the pension age will need to rise to 70
I would just say that as I stayed in serps and have a modest pension I am comfortably off and do not disagree with losing the WFA, but I would just add my wife's pension, believe it or not, is just over £5,000 pa as she stayed at home looking after our children and only had a part time job in later life, though we are extremely fortunate and grateful for our blessings
To be honest, I thought the Tory leadership content would be a lot nastier than it has been?
It's nothing to do with money just that Rumanians are particularly good builders. I can't see a principle to object to. I made at least half of my income working abroad and anyway isn't that what capitalism is all about? Invisible earnings and all that?
If there's broadcast nastiness to come, it will be when the competition goes nationwide.
Defense: Justice Thomas directed us to raise this issue
Judge Chutkan interjects: "He *directed* you to do it?"
Defense: Well.. he didn't direct us to
https://x.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1831708566761160748
Thomas appears to have some exceedingly original ideas about what is appropriate behaviour for a Supreme Court judge.
Is that what they mean by ‘originalism’ ?
If you read his Table Talk, the need for food security from Ukrainian land was his primary motivation. Of course Germany didn't "need" food security, any more than the UK does today, as both countries can import the necessary food. But the crank economics that was fashionable in right-wing German circles at the time thought held that it did.
Survey taken by YouGov after Democratic convention suggests the vice-president may be on course to win the electoral college
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in four of the swing states likely to decide the election and is narrowly behind in three others, according to polling for The Times.
It represents a dramatic reversal of fortune in the race for the White House since President Biden withdrew in July, when Trump led in all seven states.
Harris is now ahead in Michigan by five points, Nevada and Wisconsin by three points and by one point in Pennsylvania, YouGov found. Trump retains a slim lead of two points in Arizona and Georgia, and of one point in North Carolina.
https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/polls-trump-vs-harris-2024-us-election-sx6rjw0p2
https://thepostmillennial.com/kamala-harris-brings-in-uk-labour-party-strategist-to-advise-her-on-presidential-campaign
Anyone know her, or what she might have to say to a US campaign?
Bit late in the day to be calling her over for the POTUS election.
I rate her, she can put her political leanings to one side and deliver the stuff people need to hear.
Re Lucy Letby, have we noted this? No new facts but an inportant new strategy. It's going to run and run. This move opens up the possibility of criticising the way the defence was conducted.
Nobody?
As an aside the fun ended because Germany lost a war - the Great War it was called at the time, not many people have heard of it.
All done and dusted by the end of this parliament.
"The results of their system are today evident in the large number of Natives scattered about the country who are able to read and write.... Whereas the British official may often have had to risk the mutilation of his instructions to a chief by having to send them verbally, the late German system has made it possible to communicate in writing with every Akida and village headman, and in return receive from him reports written in Swahili"
So we can criticise the way the defence was conducted, but I'm not sure her new lawyers can, or not to much effect.
Makes me feel young again.
Thanks.
I’ve even been on the so called flights to so called Australia.
It’s a brilliantly done fake, I’ll give you that.
But change of counsel still has an impact. In particular the convicted person can waive privilege, opening up issues such as discussions with counsel and solicitors, and about issues of who was or was not called to give evidence and why.
And it is more feasible, if it gets past the CCRC, (and of course the second trial has not yet been appealed, so it is unploughed ground; success in this would open a can of worms of massive proportions) to make and take appeal points on a wider basis than trial counsel can.
It gives me a chnace to refer to R v Farooqui, a Court of Appeal Criminal Division classic, worthy of a wide audience.
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/JCO/Documents/Judgments/r-v-farooqi-others.pdf
It's a long time to go, nobody has a big polling lead, it's basically a toss up. Now I might think Trump looks like a grumpy old perv that nobody in their right minds would vote for so Harris should definitely be favorite. But it's still basically a toss up.
Why do you think we invaded Egypt in 1956? They knew the fiction would be uncovered without a location to take people to. British foreign policy ever since has been geared towards making sure no-one finds out the truth.
Well, unless he’s asked for an AI image of himself riding a lion…
In Scotland we call this an Anderson appeal, based on a case of that name. The court needs to be persuaded that the decisions made by the defence were obviously wrong and not just a matter of professional judgment. It succeeds sometimes but it is a high test.
Moreover, he also puts it in tossup territory - he is not saying Trump *will* win just that he thinks Trump has a slightly better chance than Harris at this moment.
Hint: logic no more cares what it's about than arithmetic does. Two apples and two apples is four apples, two dead sheep and two dead sheep is four dead sheep, etc
Does that help?
Germany looking at resurrecting our Rwanda policy. If they do I'll bet there won't be the same outrage as before or any opposition from Strasbourg, they save that just for us.
We have a Labour government that’s not exciting people and is being criticised by its opponents as a bit incompetent and meh. Not a danger to civilisation, not evil, just a bit rubbish.
We have an official opposition having a leadership contest that’s so far remarkably lacking in hysteria or intrigue. And being criticised by onlookers as a bit uninspiring.
We have the Lib Dems doing their traditional role of constituency campaigns and running councils, not trying to keep the UK in the EU.
Yes we have a populist right party in parliament but last I saw of one of them it was Richard Tice making some half baked arguments about wind farms to Ed Miliband.
There’s no major constitutional emergency, no pandemic, the big war is 2 years old.
Politics has returned to normality but I’m not sure we’re all mentally ready for it yet. It’s going to take some getting used to.
Possibly the calm before the Trump storm, but maybe not.
I've been here since 2006 and seen a lot of odd characters come and go but he was the only one that actually made me concerned when he started abusing me...
Labour made a very poor decision to rule out offshore asylum seeker hosting and it may result reform breaching the 25% mark in the polls if Europe makes it work and we're not doing it.
I am pro freedom of movement across Europe and wish we had stayed in the EU but I can see that this is an issue for area that export their brightest and best.
https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-eu-economies/romania/economic-forecast-romania_en#:~:text=Real GDP growth in Romania,by higher real disposable incomes.
I have had some tiling and some plumbing done by Romanians over recent years. Admirable reliability, work ethic and quality of work. Good value too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7v0rSLki4U
UK can do a lot to get its act together on asylum, speed up processing, speed deportations, rapidly integrate successful refugees into the labour market etc.
In recent years they have left or become bosses of agri labour companies, making way first for Moldovans and more recently everyone from Uzbeks to Nepalis. There is a pretty fluid two way street between Western Europe and Romania. I think it benefits both sides.
I was against ID cards when Blair propsoed them, but I think my opposition might soften if they were proposed again - details dependent, of course.
You'll be beaten with sandals.
Also "Perfect Days" a sort of Zen and the art of Toilet maintenance set in Tokyo.
I think both were released here in 2024, though made last year.
Both are on MUBI.
People claiming asylum are not allowed to work (at least for a year) and working illegally is quite a severely punishable breach. So mostly they just hang around, waiting for Godot in their accommodation,
Does anyone have stats?
Harris said during a campaign speech in New Hampshire said she wants to increase the capital gains tax to 28 percent for those with $1 million or more in income, up from its current effective level of 23.6 percent."
source: https://thehill.com/business/4862125-harris-proposes-lower-capital-gains-tax/
Although higher than the current level, 28 percent is a very "Republican" level, going all the way back to 1980.
(For the record: I'd be inclined to support that, especially if it were combined with closing the "carried interest" loophole, and forbidding companies from buying their own stock.)
It's quite different from being forced to go to go abroad to work out of poverty. I imagine the next generation of builders are already servicing the local Rumanian market. It's strange that in the UK most think of Rumanians as Big issue sellers whereas in the South of france they're very valued builders and tradesmen. Lots of irish barmen and women as well. Just a nice place to work I guess
There is no need to give well off pensioners unearned welfare payments that they neither need nor deserve.
There's no money left for this rubbish.
We have pensioners receiving triple locked pensions that haven't paid their taxes like NI in two decades or more now, so they're not paying all taxes.
And more importantly, the country is out of money and has mountains of debt and a huge deficit.
We can't afford to keep throwing even more taxpayers money away at people who aren't working and don't need the money. That used to be a Conservative principle.
https://www.icaew.com/insights/tax-news/2024/sep-2024/take-care-with-changes-to-carried-interest-rules-says-icaew
ICAEW considers that the current taxation of carried interest in the UK is on a par with taxes charged in other countries, and that any changes could adversely affect the level of investments made in growing UK businesses, as well as delaying new investments. ICAEW is concerned that any disruption to the agreement reached with the industry on taxation of returns from PE could damage this valuable part of the UK economy.
https://x.com/owenjonesjourno/status/1831800438594953388
Macron won the support of the French far right to make Barnier - who openly supports ending all immigration - prime minister.
That was in order to block the left, who came top in the election.
It’s so called “centrists” who will pave the way for fascism. You have been warned!