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Will Starmer last the parliament? – politicalbetting.com
Will Starmer last the parliament? – politicalbetting.com
William Hill have a market up on whether Starmer will be PM at the next election. You’re potentially tying your money up for nearly five years if you think he will for a tiday 25% return. If you think he won’t, then better proxy bets could be available on say the next leader markets.
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(and a rare first...)
Unfortunately, I think I'll be disappointed
That's saying it's expected, isn't it? National Savings are offering 4.1 percent over five years. And if that fails, the government really is in trouble.
There are . of Red Tories who would knife him in an instant.
Streeting would be most likely replacement although he will struggle to retain his seat in GE 2028
Of course Starmer could get sick or worse or just give up, but I don't see any evidence of that at this stage.
It’s not impossible. He has a touch of greed - the free glasses, really?? - and he’s clearly not asexual
And he’s the priggish type so might be obliged to resign on the grounds of him being so puritan
Still rather unlikely so the header is a value but boring bet for five long years
This is something about which the Yanks seem to have a bee in their bonnet, and it is not easy.
They always have strange obsessions - preventing incoming haggises is another one.
Don't see it myself.
The country loves austerity.
The other possibility is that the Conservatives have been self-indulgently skittish for pretty much all of that time.
She has screwed up pay in the public sector which will come back to bite her in the arse. Shes
killing growth , she has no ideas on productivity. Ed Miliband, no chance on housing.
And thats before we mention pensioners who in the usual SKS flip flop may or may not be losing winter fuel allowance.
She's so shit that if she went swimming in the Thames the directors of TW would get two years in prison.
And many unions do tend to have an undemocratic trait running through them.
I'm not talking about policies. Cameron made some big mistakes.
And for better or worse, he has nearly five years before facing public judgement. Anyone hopecasting for excitement or vindication has got a long wait coming.
You think the unions are friends of Labour. They're not. They're not friends of the public, either.
England head coach Brendon McCullum has admitted he and his team are in the dark as speculation mounts over whether their three Tests in Pakistan in October could be moved to another country.
England are due to play Tests in Multan, Karachi and Rawalpindi from October 7 but, according to reports in Pakistan, some or all of the tour could be moved to the United Arab Emirates or Sri Lanka because some venues are being refurbished.
Rawalpindi was recently the venue for both Tests in Pakistan’s series against Bangladesh – which they lost 2-0 – but upgrades are taking place there, and in Karachi and Lahore, with an eye on the 2025 Champions Trophy, which is due to take place in the country.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/09/05/england-pakistan-tour-venue-change-brendon-mccullum/
What they should have done is something like getting rid of the WFA but increasing the pension by that amount but changing the tax allowances for pensioners so the really poor ones would have got it tax free.
Labour have bunged a load of taxpayer's money at all the public services, whether they deerve it or not (as in the case of the train drivers) in the hope it will keep them quiet for a while. It won't work. It never does.
Where the previous government went wrong was assuming that, by being steely and determined, they could force their will on the negotiations. Given that the strikes were hurting the government as well as the strikers, and that the episodic strikes were sustainable for months, that wasn't going to work.
Sunak did not (as the dread phrase goes) hold all the cards, which is why budgeting on the basis that they did was so silly.
Edit: beaten by @Omnium
50% of Jenrick's support comes from Truss backers, as does 46% of Badenoch's support and as did 83% of Patel's support.
62% of Stride's support comes from Sunak backers, as does 33% of Badenoch's support
Tugendhat and Cleverly draw equally from Truss and Sunak backers
https://conservativehome.com/2024/09/05/david-jeffery-the-big-difference-between-badenoch-and-jenricks-campaigns-ex-johnson-supporters/
"A large majority of citizens want a fundamentally different migration policy. Very few consider the government to be competent in combating crime and asylum policy - the AfD does better here than all three traffic light parties combined."
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article253376310/Migration-das-wichtigste-Problem-Deutschlands-Jetzt-schiesst-der-Wert-nach-oben.html
“Chinese lab linked to Covid leak may have also released ANOTHER deadly virus, new research claims
The Chinese lab that the FBI believes likely leaked Covid-19 may have also released a 'highly evolved' strain of polio in 2014”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13812803/Chinese-lab-Covid-leak-deadly-virus-wiv14-saukett.html
Which itself seems like an unnecessary complication with even worse optics than the WFA change.
That windfall was was more than the WFA. Granny still has more money after inflation to pay her fuel bills than three years ago. But yes, the politics and optics were awful.
But with nearly five years until the election, that's not something to get excited about.
Be here now
The zinger, the punchline that had been built up like no other in the history of jokes and unveiling left wing Roger as a caricature and satire was a genius piece of living art. Chapeau.
Because the alternative is actual Nazis in power. Eventually the voters will rebel and they don’t care if you call them racist
Feeble Sir Keir means Britain will be last to the party
Starmer might get incredibly lucky if and when the EU gets brutal on migration as, perforce, that means far fewer will reach the channel
My bet is he’ll still allow masses of legal migration however, so I don’t think this issue is going away even then
A mighty storm is brewing in Europe
Reeves does have the opportunity to do some serious rebalancing and rejigging over the next couple of budgets. Dumping the triple lock and making all income subject to the same tax regimes whilst at the same time getting rid of some of the stupid cliff edges would seem to me to be obvious and generally positive moves. Merging IC and NI would be a braver move but again one I would applaud. The trouble is I am not sure she is really interested in doing anything properly radical and just wants to tinker in favour of her own pressure groups just as the Tories did when they were in power with the pensioners.
Hang on to Nurse for fear of something worse..??????.. who knows who.might replace Starmer....
In that context, the fuel allowance of £300 is not, I think, as big a deal as people make it out to be - essentially it means that the pension has risen by £1,575 rather than £1,875 over two years.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-13557679/Italian-tourist-trail-Taranto.html
Up until Milos everyone I’ve encountered has been keen (like the whole country). He’s about 30 and very clever and he told me “of course I wanted to join but now I look at Croatia, they lost so many workers due to free movement they had to replace them with people from Asia, is that a good idea for us?”
Interesting. Its a fabulous country and this has been a fabulous trip
Has fixed the far right race riots in less time than anyone else could have done
Has got rid of a Gordon Brown gimmick which gave £300 for fuel to the richest cohort in the country.
Has got the doctors working again and the train drivers with no resentments or hard feelings
.... and has started to show Israel that it's support isn't guaranteed.
Not bad for 2 months.....