Although Labour definitely could lose its majority at the next election, I don't think the chart particularly supports that hypothesis. Labour has 40 or so seats with less than 35%, or one tenth of the 411 total.
Meanwhile on a similar cough the Conservatives also have 40 or so seats with less than 35%, making up a third of its 121 total.
There is already a 3% swing from Labour to Tory since the general election on the new BMG poll for the Independent last night
Do you have full figures for that poll, because I think it implies an increase for Reform, which doesn't really help the Tories even if it's at the expense of Labour?
Good morning
Reform on 19 % (+1) but @HYUFD will respond by saying conservative and reform are on 45% !!!
Tories also up to 26%
I know - I posted the poll last night with this article
The corollary to that is the Tories only need to cough too and they could end up as the third or fourth largest party next time.
Won't happen that way round
The right wing vote could move up five points, but if that expresses itself via a seven point increase for Reform and a two point drop in Conservative support, then it's entirely possible that it results in a larger left wing majority in Westminster.
It took 14 years from 1983 to 1997 before the Alliance/LibDem and Labour votes became efficient. But now they are highly efficient: there are virtually no Labour-LibDem marginals.
By contrast, in addition to the Conservative-Reform marginals, there is the much bigger list of seats where the combined Conservative-Reform total would win the seat from the incumbent. If the right wing vote were to become efficient, then you could see a big gains.
But how quickly will that happen? After the shellecking of 1983, it didn't happen in 1987, and while it improved in 1992, it was only in 1997 (remember GROT and "Labour tactically voting LibDem" posters?) that the left wing vote became really efficient.
It's another manifestation of the point in Andy's header. Once you have multiple parties on each "side", the distribution of votes on each "side" matters a lot more than the raw vote totals.
Labour's landslide was all about getting enough votes in lots and lots of places- losing votes where they were crazy-strong, gaining them proportionally where they were in second place, abandoning Nice Britain to the Lib Dems.
Here's a graph from Dylan Difford that I've been looking for an excuse to post for a while. It's swings on individual seats election-by-election. The narrower the spike, the more uniform the swing;
Only if that cough lasts more than 5 years. They have a solid unshakeable majority.
Absolutely hilarious post.
Under what circumstances do you think they will lose a majority before 2029?
The mood music in the political world is in a very unusual state.
As the excellent header shows.
The recent election was about chucking the Tories out. There was no 1997 style tidal wave* to chuck *Labour* in.
We could very easily go into the next election with 3-4 parties on around 20% each
Yes, Labour has a large majority in the House of Commons. But under FPTP, it can evaporate. As did the Tory majority - just weeks ago.
The old tribal loyalties to one of the Big Two and A Half are fraying. Increasingly people are prepared to say - if they are not the answer, next.
*1997 was exaggerated in media, but anyway…
My point though is that while seats and elections are unstable, the Labour majority is as solid as a rock. Unjustly so perhaps, but that's FPTP*. Labour have 5 years and there's nothing that other parties can do about it.
*as per the header, we need a better name than this for our electoral system.
And mine is that the rock can crumble to dust at the next election.
The pendulum is not just swinging in two dimensions, anymore, either.
Thanks @Andy_Cooke an excellent article and a bit different from the norm and I agree with you the LD figures are different to what I would have suspected. Great to see an article posting new data and analysis from what we normally see.
The LD and Green seats and figures show how parties can win with passionate supporter led traditional campaigning. Notably the turnout was higher in LD and Green target seats too.
It shows that old style campaigning works with footsloggers on the ground and poster boards up.
Shockhat Adam did the same in Leicester. There were posters and street activists all over Evington. I didn't think he could do it, but he did. He has got stuck into the constituency work too and is going to be tough to unseat.
Only if that cough lasts more than 5 years. They have a solid unshakeable majority.
Absolutely hilarious post.
Under what circumstances do you think they will lose a majority before 2029?
The mood music in the political world is in a very unusual state.
As the excellent header shows.
The recent election was about chucking the Tories out. There was no 1997 style tidal wave* to chuck *Labour* in.
We could very easily go into the next election with 3-4 parties on around 20% each
Yes, Labour has a large majority in the House of Commons. But under FPTP, it can evaporate. As did the Tory majority - just weeks ago.
The old tribal loyalties to one of the Big Two and A Half are fraying. Increasingly people are prepared to say - if they are not the answer, next.
*1997 was exaggerated in media, but anyway…
My point though is that while seats and elections are unstable, the Labour majority is as solid as a rock. Unjustly so perhaps, but that's FPTP*. Labour have 5 years and there's nothing that other parties can do about it.
*as per the header, we need a better name than this for our electoral system.
And mine is that the rock can crumble to dust at the next election.
The pendulum is not just swinging in two dimensions, anymore, either.
Of course, it's the nature of a General Election that every seat is up for grabs.
But a cough won't bring down Labour before 2029, no matter how much CR wishes it would.
Although Labour definitely could lose its majority at the next election, I don't think the chart particularly supports that hypothesis. Labour has 40 or so seats with less than 35%, or one tenth of the 411 total.
Meanwhile on a similar cough the Conservatives also have 40 or so seats with less than 35%, making up a third of its 121 total.
There is already a 3% swing from Labour to Tory since the general election on the new BMG poll for the Independent last night
Do you have full figures for that poll, because I think it implies an increase for Reform, which doesn't really help the Tories even if it's at the expense of Labour?
Good morning
Reform on 19 % (+1) but @HYUFD will respond by saying conservative and reform are on 45% !!!
Tories also up to 26%
Given what a miserable August the new Labour government is reputed to have had, I'm not sure a rating of 26% for the Tories is much to celebrate.
"When I raise my concerns with my Democratic friends, they universally don’t care. They would vote for a goldfish over Trump. The partisanship is intense right now. And I take the point."
Only if that cough lasts more than 5 years. They have a solid unshakeable majority.
Absolutely hilarious post.
Under what circumstances do you think they will lose a majority before 2029?
Mass renunciation or withdrawal of whip, over Gaza and/or kid starving policy.
So a 1% chance?
I suspect that Starmers plan is to get the pain over early and to deliver real improvements across government services by the mid term.
The next Labour election will be very much be "We've turned the corner, don't let the Tories ruin things again".
Which is what normal governments try to do. Partly because it's the only chance politicians have to do unpleasant-but-necessary things, but also because it works electorally.Think Blair sticking to Conservative spending limits 1997-9, or Maggie raising taxes in 1979 and making the state pension meaner in 1980.
The result is one of the classic rope-a-dope tricks, the opposition getting excited because they're ahead in the polls shortly after an election. After 1979, it took about a month, after 2010 it took about five.
If I lived in Scotland I would vote SNP because finally there is a party that will focus on the middle classes and stop pandering to the working classes.
Swinney warns SNP: Win back middle class or face disaster
Secret recording from private session reveals stark message from the first minister to party activists at Edinburgh conference
John Swinney has warned SNP activists they must win back Scotland’s middle class or face another election drubbing, according to a leaked recording which lays bare the crisis facing the party.
In a secret recording from a private session of the SNP conference, members pored over the disastrous general election in which the party lost 39 MPs.
They were presented with internal polling analysis that showed swathes of voters switch to Labour once they begin earning an annual salary of more than “the low £20,000s”.
"When I raise my concerns with my Democratic friends, they universally don’t care. They would vote for a goldfish over Trump. The partisanship is intense right now. And I take the point."
Although Labour definitely could lose its majority at the next election, I don't think the chart particularly supports that hypothesis. Labour has 40 or so seats with less than 35%, or one tenth of the 411 total.
Meanwhile on a similar cough the Conservatives also have 40 or so seats with less than 35%, making up a third of its 121 total.
There is already a 3% swing from Labour to Tory since the general election on the new BMG poll for the Independent last night
Do you have full figures for that poll, because I think it implies an increase for Reform, which doesn't really help the Tories even if it's at the expense of Labour?
Good morning
Reform on 19 % (+1) but @HYUFD will respond by saying conservative and reform are on 45% !!!
Reform 19% is actually +5%. For what it's worth, which is nothing at all, Electoral Calculus gives us a 46 seat Labour majority and the Tories on 175 seats.
If I lived in Scotland I would vote SNP because finally there is a party that will focus on the middle classes and stop pandering to the working classes.
Swinney warns SNP: Win back middle class or face disaster
Secret recording from private session reveals stark message from the first minister to party activists at Edinburgh conference
John Swinney has warned SNP activists they must win back Scotland’s middle class or face another election drubbing, according to a leaked recording which lays bare the crisis facing the party.
In a secret recording from a private session of the SNP conference, members pored over the disastrous general election in which the party lost 39 MPs.
They were presented with internal polling analysis that showed swathes of voters switch to Labour once they begin earning an annual salary of more than “the low £20,000s”.
I think that shows how little extra tax people want to pay, once you hit £25,689 the Scottish income tax rate is 21%...
Now it's only £180 extra a year if you earn £43,660 but it adds up.
I'm not sure about that - the analysis so far suggests it doesn't have much of an effect on Scottish taxpayers.
That doesn't mean there isn't a big risk. Part of the tolerance that someone like me has for higher taxes is the social contract I have with my country. In other words - universal benefits.
That's the NHS, free prescriptions, free university tuition, free bus passes, cheap rail tickets to Glasgow, free school meals and so on. These policies are grossly inefficient for things like child poverty, but of significant benefit to middle class home owners like me. As the fiscal position tightens, the SNP and Labour, to a lesser extent, will find themselves trapped in a choice between these two principles.
I remember this phase Tories are currently going through. Labour went through it after they lost in 2010. It’s tough.
It's a bit different. Labour had grief to process in 2010, Tories have known this was coming since 2021. Secondly coalition 2010 may have been a coalition with the main part itself fractured over Europe but it was a seamless monolith compared to lab with its division over Corbyn and Palestine and 2 children rule.
Harvest your capital gains Buy popcorn. Buy sub 12 months for 2 tier's first commons defeat.
Does Scottish popcorn taste different to regular popcorn?
Police investigate senior civil servant over Alex Salmond inquiry
James Hynd accused of making false statement, court told
Detectives are investigating claims that a senior civil servant gave a false statement under oath to an inquiry into sexual misconduct allegations involving Alex Salmond.
The Court of Session was told on Friday that Police Scotland was looking at the conduct of James Hynd, who was the Scottish government’s head of cabinet, parliament and governance during the inquiry.
Salmond, 69, has brought legal action against the Scottish government seeking “significant damages” and compensation for loss of earnings that may total millions of pounds.
The former first minister alleges “malfeasance” by civil servants past and present, arguing that they “conducted themselves improperly, in bad faith and beyond their powers” with the intention of damaging him. This allegedly happened during a botched investigation by civil servants over claims that Salmond had acted inappropriately towards a number of women during his time in office.
Gordon Dangerfield, representing Salmond, told the judge, Lord Fairley, that the police investigation was called Operation Broadcroft and was headed by a Detective Superintendent Graham Lannigan.
Alex Salmond isn't a nice person - despite living 4 miles away in the next village I haven't heard anyone say nice things about him (and that includes the local Yes supporters).
But, the more that the circumstances of his ousting are probed, the more it appears that Very Bad Things were concocted to get him out of the way. With SNP friends like that, who needs enemies?
Hopefully these lying barstewards have a light shone on them , hopefully he gets millions and the bunch of wrong un's get time.
Only if that cough lasts more than 5 years. They have a solid unshakeable majority.
Absolutely hilarious post.
Under what circumstances do you think they will lose a majority before 2029?
Mass renunciation or withdrawal of whip, over Gaza and/or kid starving policy.
So a 1% chance?
I suspect that Starmers plan is to get the pain over early and to deliver real improvements across government services by the mid term.
The next Labour election will be very much be "We've turned the corner, don't let the Tories ruin things again".
Distilling the reason why the Tories lost, I would say it's people have lost confidence that an ambulance will pick them up for treatment if they collapse in the street.
Conservatives didn't just fail to deal with the problem, it wasn't even a priority for them.
Labour's job before the next election is to get that confidence back.
Labour have certainly got off to a faltering start (they need some of that joy that Harris/Walz has generated), and it is unclear where they will shed voters to. My impression it is the Greens (wanting more tax and spend, and support for Palestine) and the LDs (wanting less top down heavy handedness) that will benefit, but we will see.
It's a long time to the next election, and while individual seats may be precarious (though outnumbered 5 to one by seats that are not precarious) Labour's majority is not even slightly precarious and they will get a full term. Expect a May 2029 GE.
The Tories though do look vulnerable, particularly if they fail to understand why the country so enthusiastically voted them out by carefully choosing a tactical vote to maximise Tory losses.
The concept of 35%+ as the threshold where winning a seat becomes probable is a good one, and one reason that I think Reform cannot really break through on a national stage. They have a low ceiling and Farage is an ageing agitator rather than an organiser.
There is though a whiff of Weimar about such an unstable political system, with multiple competing fissile blocks focused on mutal antagonism.
We can all identify the problems - grindcore poverty, investment into services hived off so that we spend record amounts to have front line services starved of cash, poorly educated people gaslit on social media to form hate mobs, infrastructure crumbling and dragging the economy backwards.
UK PLC would hopefully appoint a visionary new CEO, reaffirm the vision thing, and ruthlessly go after the waste, incompetence and inefficiencies to get the thing buzzing again. Instead we have Starmer, who barely dares to speak of vision, and dare not go after the inefficiencies because the gaslit might be cross. So instead of transforming UK PLC we're going to repaint it, change the logo and invest in motivational statement wall art.
Thames Water is emblematic of the way the country has been run these last decades. A public asset sold off to foreign venture capital to fund current expenditure, looted for dividends and executive bonuses, squeezed by dubious financial engineering, then dumped back on the government as a failed organisation as full of shit as its rivers.
We need a much better way of running a country than this.
I'd summarise it in two ways politically: 1) The Tories lost sight of capitalism because they became enfatuated with (donations from) Cronyism. Why bother investing in business and doing the hard things long term when you can sell it off today and take your cut now? More so when oligarchs and investment funds are such nice generous people.So yeah, Fuck Business 2) Labour never really understood or trusted business. A strong regulatory framework enacted in the late 90s could have reigned in the excesses of the likes of Thames Water. But Labour missed the boat and presided over the years where the rot really set in.
We need to invest heavily in infrastructure. Roads, Railways, Water, Power, Internet. A bonanza of jobs which can be created quickly, creating skilled workers with money in their pockets they can spend in the economy and create more jobs. And infrastructure which drives positive ROI and long term growth in our stagnant economy.
Its win win. Except that "who will pay for it" and "we can't afford it" Tory mantras still ring out loudly. And so we will continue to pay stupid amounts as what we have crumbles further, whilst France, Spain, Germany et al pull ahead.
Sigh.
I think a change to the fiscal rules around borrowing for capital investment might be what Labour go for. Something like as long as the structural deficit is coming down as a percentage of GDP, and as long as interest rates are below X%, you can borrow like mad "for growth".
If I lived in Scotland I would vote SNP because finally there is a party that will focus on the middle classes and stop pandering to the working classes.
Swinney warns SNP: Win back middle class or face disaster
Secret recording from private session reveals stark message from the first minister to party activists at Edinburgh conference
John Swinney has warned SNP activists they must win back Scotland’s middle class or face another election drubbing, according to a leaked recording which lays bare the crisis facing the party.
In a secret recording from a private session of the SNP conference, members pored over the disastrous general election in which the party lost 39 MPs.
They were presented with internal polling analysis that showed swathes of voters switch to Labour once they begin earning an annual salary of more than “the low £20,000s”.
I think that shows how little extra tax people want to pay, once you hit £25,689 the Scottish income tax rate is 21%...
Now it's only £180 extra a year if you earn £43,660 but it adds up.
I'm not sure about that - the analysis so far suggests it doesn't have much of an effect on Scottish taxpayers.
That doesn't mean there isn't a big risk. Part of the tolerance that someone like me has for higher taxes is the social contract I have with my country. In other words - universal benefits.
That's the NHS, free prescriptions, free university tuition, free bus passes, cheap rail tickets to Glasgow, free school meals and so on. These policies are grossly inefficient for things like child poverty, but of significant benefit to middle class home owners like me. As the fiscal position tightens, the SNP and Labour, to a lesser extent, will find themselves trapped in a choice between these two principles.
As ever reality is different to these idiots ravings. Tax take is down and universal benefits are being binned , we are led by f**king morons and idiots who would struggle to run a bath. Those clowns and Labour are two cheeks of the same arse , pompous self seeking brainless tossers pandering to idiots , middle class or otherwise.
Of course, there is one other point to make - constituencies being much more vulnerable and therefore forcing MPs to pay attention to their voters could be considered a good thing.
One of the big weaknesses of FPTP is it would endlessly return complete numpties like Fabricant or Lavery no matter what they did or didn't do because they wore the right rosette. If that's no longer the case - and it clearly isn't - the issue of fairness (somewhat amplified!) remains but one argument for voting reform is gone.
Fabricant was actually a hard working and well known constituency MP as well as being a colourful character. Which is why he held his seat for 30 years until national swing removed him narrowly last month
No he wasn't.
He was very well known in the city, lived near the cathedral and had higher name recognition than any MP for Lichfield has ever had before
He spent all his time in London or mid-Wales, you numpty.
And yes, people knew him. Do you know that they used to substitute a 'u' for that 'a' in his surname?
Although Labour definitely could lose its majority at the next election, I don't think the chart particularly supports that hypothesis. Labour has 40 or so seats with less than 35%, or one tenth of the 411 total.
Meanwhile on a similar cough the Conservatives also have 40 or so seats with less than 35%, making up a third of its 121 total.
There is already a 3% swing from Labour to Tory since the general election on the new BMG poll for the Independent last night
Do you have full figures for that poll, because I think it implies an increase for Reform, which doesn't really help the Tories even if it's at the expense of Labour?
Good morning
Reform on 19 % (+1) but @HYUFD will respond by saying conservative and reform are on 45% !!!
Tories also up to 26%
Given what a miserable August the new Labour government is reputed to have had, I'm not sure a rating of 26% for the Tories is much to celebrate.
CON are coming back
Little by little!
Good luck with the tickets folks!
133,072 people ahead of me in the queue, not looking good... a lot of error messages on the way there. I saw them at Earls Court back in the day, anyway, but my son is keen to go so will keep trying.
If I lived in Scotland I would vote SNP because finally there is a party that will focus on the middle classes and stop pandering to the working classes.
Swinney warns SNP: Win back middle class or face disaster
Secret recording from private session reveals stark message from the first minister to party activists at Edinburgh conference
John Swinney has warned SNP activists they must win back Scotland’s middle class or face another election drubbing, according to a leaked recording which lays bare the crisis facing the party.
In a secret recording from a private session of the SNP conference, members pored over the disastrous general election in which the party lost 39 MPs.
They were presented with internal polling analysis that showed swathes of voters switch to Labour once they begin earning an annual salary of more than “the low £20,000s”.
I think that shows how little extra tax people want to pay, once you hit £25,689 the Scottish income tax rate is 21%...
Now it's only £180 extra a year if you earn £43,660 but it adds up.
I'm not sure about that - the analysis so far suggests it doesn't have much of an effect on Scottish taxpayers.
That doesn't mean there isn't a big risk. Part of the tolerance that someone like me has for higher taxes is the social contract I have with my country. In other words - universal benefits.
That's the NHS, free prescriptions, free university tuition, free bus passes, cheap rail tickets to Glasgow, free school meals and so on. These policies are grossly inefficient for things like child poverty, but of significant benefit to middle class home owners like me. As the fiscal position tightens, the SNP and Labour, to a lesser extent, will find themselves trapped in a choice between these two principles.
Not grossly inefficient. I recall that they crunched the prescription and bus pass figures and found that the cost of means testing took up a lot of the difference between doing it free for all and means testing. And the health and economic benefits more than paid for the remaining margin.
Also, the SNP - it bears repeating as a few on PB seem not to grasp that (not necessarily including eek) - is a minority government, so it's not just the SNP maintaining those budget decisions (though Slab usually refused to vote for the budget on the Bain Principle, even if it was what they wanted).
Of course, there is one other point to make - constituencies being much more vulnerable and therefore forcing MPs to pay attention to their voters could be considered a good thing.
One of the big weaknesses of FPTP is it would endlessly return complete numpties like Fabricant or Lavery no matter what they did or didn't do because they wore the right rosette. If that's no longer the case - and it clearly isn't - the issue of fairness (somewhat amplified!) remains but one argument for voting reform is gone.
Fabricant was actually a hard working and well known constituency MP as well as being a colourful character. Which is why he held his seat for 30 years until national swing removed him narrowly last month
No he wasn't.
He was very well known in the city, lived near the cathedral and had higher name recognition than any MP for Lichfield has ever had before
He spent all his time in London or mid-Wales, you numpty.
And yes, people knew him. Do you know that they used to substitute a 'u' for that 'a' in his surname?
Only if that cough lasts more than 5 years. They have a solid unshakeable majority.
Absolutely hilarious post.
Under what circumstances do you think they will lose a majority before 2029?
The mood music in the political world is in a very unusual state.
As the excellent header shows.
The recent election was about chucking the Tories out. There was no 1997 style tidal wave* to chuck *Labour* in.
We could very easily go into the next election with 3-4 parties on around 20% each
Yes, Labour has a large majority in the House of Commons. But under FPTP, it can evaporate. As did the Tory majority - just weeks ago.
The old tribal loyalties to one of the Big Two and A Half are fraying. Increasingly people are prepared to say - if they are not the answer, next.
*1997 was exaggerated in media, but anyway…
My point though is that while seats and elections are unstable, the Labour majority is as solid as a rock. Unjustly so perhaps, but that's FPTP*. Labour have 5 years and there's nothing that other parties can do about it.
*as per the header, we need a better name than this for our electoral system.
And mine is that the rock can crumble to dust at the next election.
The pendulum is not just swinging in two dimensions, anymore, either.
It's a three (or more) body problem. Inherently incalculable.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
Labour have certainly got off to a faltering start (they need some of that joy that Harris/Walz has generated), and it is unclear where they will shed voters to. My impression it is the Greens (wanting more tax and spend, and support for Palestine) and the LDs (wanting less top down heavy handedness) that will benefit, but we will see.
It's a long time to the next election, and while individual seats may be precarious (though outnumbered 5 to one by seats that are not precarious) Labour's majority is not even slightly precarious and they will get a full term. Expect a May 2029 GE.
The Tories though do look vulnerable, particularly if they fail to understand why the country so enthusiastically voted them out by carefully choosing a tactical vote to maximise Tory losses.
The concept of 35%+ as the threshold where winning a seat becomes probable is a good one, and one reason that I think Reform cannot really break through on a national stage. They have a low ceiling and Farage is an ageing agitator rather than an organiser.
There is though a whiff of Weimar about such an unstable political system, with multiple competing fissile blocks focused on mutal antagonism.
We can all identify the problems - grindcore poverty, investment into services hived off so that we spend record amounts to have front line services starved of cash, poorly educated people gaslit on social media to form hate mobs, infrastructure crumbling and dragging the economy backwards.
UK PLC would hopefully appoint a visionary new CEO, reaffirm the vision thing, and ruthlessly go after the waste, incompetence and inefficiencies to get the thing buzzing again. Instead we have Starmer, who barely dares to speak of vision, and dare not go after the inefficiencies because the gaslit might be cross. So instead of transforming UK PLC we're going to repaint it, change the logo and invest in motivational statement wall art.
Thames Water is emblematic of the way the country has been run these last decades. A public asset sold off to foreign venture capital to fund current expenditure, looted for dividends and executive bonuses, squeezed by dubious financial engineering, then dumped back on the government as a failed organisation as full of shit as its rivers.
We need a much better way of running a country than this.
I'd summarise it in two ways politically: 1) The Tories lost sight of capitalism because they became enfatuated with (donations from) Cronyism. Why bother investing in business and doing the hard things long term when you can sell it off today and take your cut now? More so when oligarchs and investment funds are such nice generous people.So yeah, Fuck Business 2) Labour never really understood or trusted business. A strong regulatory framework enacted in the late 90s could have reigned in the excesses of the likes of Thames Water. But Labour missed the boat and presided over the years where the rot really set in.
We need to invest heavily in infrastructure. Roads, Railways, Water, Power, Internet. A bonanza of jobs which can be created quickly, creating skilled workers with money in their pockets they can spend in the economy and create more jobs. And infrastructure which drives positive ROI and long term growth in our stagnant economy.
Its win win. Except that "who will pay for it" and "we can't afford it" Tory mantras still ring out loudly. And so we will continue to pay stupid amounts as what we have crumbles further, whilst France, Spain, Germany et al pull ahead.
Sigh.
I think a change to the fiscal rules around borrowing for capital investment might be what Labour go for. Something like as long as the structural deficit is coming down as a percentage of GDP, and as long as interest rates are below X%, you can borrow like mad "for growth".
I think that is the most likely (and least -ve for the economy) option.
Also on the agenda (and much harder to deal with) needs to be a review of the regulation around financial services to unpick the vast pyramid scheme of PE in the post-cheap-money era, without bringing it all crashing down in one catastrophic evacuation.
I think we’re going to see some truly mad poll results in this Parliament.
The voter coalitions are all over the place and there appears to be little by way of party loyalty anymore. 2017 and 2019 were the first cracks in that. 2024 blew it wide open.
It might only take small shifts in policy, or approach, to turn a sizeable bucket of the electorate over to other parties.
There are scenarios where I can start to see poll results like 20 CON/ 20 LAB / 20 REF / 15 LD / 15 GRN being thrown up midterm, with each party +\- 5 or so of that.
At the next GE, the winning party is going to be the one who is able to assemble a coalition of voters better than the others, and it will also come down to Labours record in government as to whether voters swing back for fear of the Tories/AN other.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
Does anyone have similar accounts?
One of the greatest indictments of our society is the alarm tags they put on the baby formula in my local Sainsbos.
Of course, there is one other point to make - constituencies being much more vulnerable and therefore forcing MPs to pay attention to their voters could be considered a good thing.
One of the big weaknesses of FPTP is it would endlessly return complete numpties like Fabricant or Lavery no matter what they did or didn't do because they wore the right rosette. If that's no longer the case - and it clearly isn't - the issue of fairness (somewhat amplified!) remains but one argument for voting reform is gone.
Fabricant was actually a hard working and well known constituency MP as well as being a colourful character. Which is why he held his seat for 30 years until national swing removed him narrowly last month
No he wasn't.
He was very well known in the city, lived near the cathedral and had higher name recognition than any MP for Lichfield has ever had before
He spent all his time in London or mid-Wales, you numpty.
And yes, people knew him. Do you know that they used to substitute a 'u' for that 'a' in his surname?
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
Does anyone have similar accounts?
I got one stopped in M&S last week , barsteward was shovelling joints into a carrier bag right next to me , the staff got him at door and asked him to show what was in bag and he handed it to them and legged it. Personally I would have the scumbags arms broken in several places which would restrict them and make them think twice the next time.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
Does anyone have similar accounts?
One of the greatest indictments of our society is the alarm tags they put on the baby formula in my local Sainsbos.
The local Tesco Local (ha) has taken to the new circumstances with alacrity.
Because it is a franchise, the store is really a corner shop with some Tesco branding. So the manager takes a keen interest in shop lifting.
The managers distant cousin “hangs around” and, while not employed by the store (no sire, not at all), seems to enjoy assaulting shop lifters. He’s been up in front of the beaks a coulee of times, but is always back. I guess the revolving door works for everyone…
I must suggest to the manager a franchise offering for store security. Get in on the ground floor of these things…
If I lived in Scotland I would vote SNP because finally there is a party that will focus on the middle classes and stop pandering to the working classes.
Swinney warns SNP: Win back middle class or face disaster
Secret recording from private session reveals stark message from the first minister to party activists at Edinburgh conference
John Swinney has warned SNP activists they must win back Scotland’s middle class or face another election drubbing, according to a leaked recording which lays bare the crisis facing the party.
In a secret recording from a private session of the SNP conference, members pored over the disastrous general election in which the party lost 39 MPs.
They were presented with internal polling analysis that showed swathes of voters switch to Labour once they begin earning an annual salary of more than “the low £20,000s”.
I think that shows how little extra tax people want to pay, once you hit £25,689 the Scottish income tax rate is 21%...
Now it's only £180 extra a year if you earn £43,660 but it adds up.
I'm not sure about that - the analysis so far suggests it doesn't have much of an effect on Scottish taxpayers.
That doesn't mean there isn't a big risk. Part of the tolerance that someone like me has for higher taxes is the social contract I have with my country. In other words - universal benefits.
That's the NHS, free prescriptions, free university tuition, free bus passes, cheap rail tickets to Glasgow, free school meals and so on. These policies are grossly inefficient for things like child poverty, but of significant benefit to middle class home owners like me. As the fiscal position tightens, the SNP and Labour, to a lesser extent, will find themselves trapped in a choice between these two principles.
Not grossly inefficient. I recall that they crunched the prescription and bus pass figures and found that the cost of means testing took up a lot of the difference between doing it free for all and means testing. And the health and economic benefits more than paid for the remaining margin.
Also, the SNP - it bears repeating as a few on PB seem not to grasp that (not necessarily including eek) - is a minority government, so it's not just the SNP maintaining those budget decisions (though Slab usually refused to vote for the budget on the Bain Principle, even if it was what they wanted).
I have come to the depressing conclusion that Scotland needs a bracing dose of SLab at Holyrood where Scottish voters will be able to see first hand the collision of calls from dimwitted hypocrites like Sarwar continuously demanding more social spending & public sector wage increases with blaming the SG for more social spending & public sector wage increases when Reeves & co cut funding. If they're doing it with the diddy parties in the passenger seats, all the better.
Labour's 85th lowest vote share in a seat they won was 38%, (in Caerphilly). That's what their majority is based on, since the majority is double the number of seats over 325 that you win.
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
If we assume for a moment that UNS returns to some relevance in 2028/9, Labour lose their majority on around a 4.5% swing iirc (depends if you only count Lab/Con swing or Lab/Allcomers swing).
A return to something more UNS like is not impossible - after the very non-UNS, proportional swing GE result in Scotland in 2015, subsequent elections have tacked closer to UNS.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
Does anyone have similar accounts?
I got one stopped in M&S last week , barsteward was shovelling joints into a carrier bag right next to me , the staff got him at door and asked him to show what was in bag and he handed it to them and legged it. Personally I would have the scumbags arms broken in several places which would restrict them and make them think twice the next time.
My wife noticed that people were appearing to buy at the self checkout at our Sainsbury's local by going through the process and presenting a card that gets rejected and then they walk out with the stuff as if they had paid. She has seen it several times as she follows these people on the same checkout.
So I reported it. They thanked me but told me they knew about it, which is one of the reasons they hover around the self checkout.
Although Labour definitely could lose its majority at the next election, I don't think the chart particularly supports that hypothesis. Labour has 40 or so seats with less than 35%, or one tenth of the 411 total.
Meanwhile on a similar cough the Conservatives also have 40 or so seats with less than 35%, making up a third of its 121 total.
There is already a 3% swing from Labour to Tory since the general election on the new BMG poll for the Independent last night
Do you have full figures for that poll, because I think it implies an increase for Reform, which doesn't really help the Tories even if it's at the expense of Labour?
Good morning
Reform on 19 % (+1) but @HYUFD will respond by saying conservative and reform are on 45% !!!
Tories also up to 26%
Given what a miserable August the new Labour government is reputed to have had, I'm not sure a rating of 26% for the Tories is much to celebrate.
CON are coming back
Little by little!
Good luck with the tickets folks!
133,072 people ahead of me in the queue, not looking good... a lot of error messages on the way there. I saw them at Earls Court back in the day, anyway, but my son is keen to go so will keep trying.
They might be shit and you are better off at home with Spotify They might have a tiff and cancel They might spend now till then writing new material and just play that There's an actuarial risk from too much coke over too long a period
My wife noticed that people were appearing to buy at the self checkout at our Sainsbury's local by going through the process and presenting a card that gets rejected and then they walk out with the stuff as if they had paid. She has seen it several times as she follows these people on the same checkout.
So I reported it. They thanked me but told me they knew about it, which is one of the reasons they hover around the self checkout.
I make my living supporting tech, including systems like self service checkouts, but as a customer I loathe them with a passion normally reserved for Brexit (and all who sail in her)
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
There's another chunky real terms increase in the state pension to announce this autumn (wages > inflation), which a competent government ought to be able to spin to take away a lot of the political sting.
And the reality is that, real-terms, pensioners will have more money this year than last. It's just that some of it won't come with a "winter fuel" label attached.
Fantastic to see Angela Raver larging it good and proper in Ibiza. If only more of our politicians had a life. Sounds like she is great for a night out.
Although Labour definitely could lose its majority at the next election, I don't think the chart particularly supports that hypothesis. Labour has 40 or so seats with less than 35%, or one tenth of the 411 total.
Meanwhile on a similar cough the Conservatives also have 40 or so seats with less than 35%, making up a third of its 121 total.
There is already a 3% swing from Labour to Tory since the general election on the new BMG poll for the Independent last night
Do you have full figures for that poll, because I think it implies an increase for Reform, which doesn't really help the Tories even if it's at the expense of Labour?
Good morning
Reform on 19 % (+1) but @HYUFD will respond by saying conservative and reform are on 45% !!!
Reform 19% is actually +5%. For what it's worth, which is nothing at all, Electoral Calculus gives us a 46 seat Labour majority and the Tories on 175 seats.
The comparison is with the previous BMG poll from about 3 weeks ago.
For a few days now. Is @rcs1000 anywhere need a resolution cos it is driving me bonkers.
Here is Vanilla's response:
So... we can enable the new embed system. But that doesn't seem to include ... errrr ... "embed comment functionality". Which is the entire point of Vanilla.
It probably. therefore, means it's time to move to another commenting system.
Of course, there is one other point to make - constituencies being much more vulnerable and therefore forcing MPs to pay attention to their voters could be considered a good thing.
One of the big weaknesses of FPTP is it would endlessly return complete numpties like Fabricant or Lavery no matter what they did or didn't do because they wore the right rosette. If that's no longer the case - and it clearly isn't - the issue of fairness (somewhat amplified!) remains but one argument for voting reform is gone.
Fabricant was actually a hard working and well known constituency MP as well as being a colourful character. Which is why he held his seat for 30 years until national swing removed him narrowly last month
No he wasn't.
He was very well known in the city, lived near the cathedral and had higher name recognition than any MP for Lichfield has ever had before
He spent all his time in London or mid-Wales, you numpty.
And yes, people knew him. Do you know that they used to substitute a 'u' for that 'a' in his surname?
If I lived in Scotland I would vote SNP because finally there is a party that will focus on the middle classes and stop pandering to the working classes.
Swinney warns SNP: Win back middle class or face disaster
Secret recording from private session reveals stark message from the first minister to party activists at Edinburgh conference
John Swinney has warned SNP activists they must win back Scotland’s middle class or face another election drubbing, according to a leaked recording which lays bare the crisis facing the party.
In a secret recording from a private session of the SNP conference, members pored over the disastrous general election in which the party lost 39 MPs.
They were presented with internal polling analysis that showed swathes of voters switch to Labour once they begin earning an annual salary of more than “the low £20,000s”.
I think that shows how little extra tax people want to pay, once you hit £25,689 the Scottish income tax rate is 21%...
Now it's only £180 extra a year if you earn £43,660 but it adds up.
I'm not sure about that - the analysis so far suggests it doesn't have much of an effect on Scottish taxpayers.
That doesn't mean there isn't a big risk. Part of the tolerance that someone like me has for higher taxes is the social contract I have with my country. In other words - universal benefits.
That's the NHS, free prescriptions, free university tuition, free bus passes, cheap rail tickets to Glasgow, free school meals and so on. These policies are grossly inefficient for things like child poverty, but of significant benefit to middle class home owners like me. As the fiscal position tightens, the SNP and Labour, to a lesser extent, will find themselves trapped in a choice between these two principles.
Not grossly inefficient. I recall that they crunched the prescription and bus pass figures and found that the cost of means testing took up a lot of the difference between doing it free for all and means testing. And the health and economic benefits more than paid for the remaining margin.
Also, the SNP - it bears repeating as a few on PB seem not to grasp that (not necessarily including eek) - is a minority government, so it's not just the SNP maintaining those budget decisions (though Slab usually refused to vote for the budget on the Bain Principle, even if it was what they wanted).
Yes, fair enough. I was thinking in highly simplistic terms of just removing all these universal benefits and making cash transfers to poor people. But policy by policy, some of them are more efficient as universal benefits.
There are also some benefits where the social outcomes are a bit undervalued; particularly FSMs. I think the stigma associated with them is very unhelpful, so universal food provision in schools is a valuable shared experience.
For a few days now. Is @rcs1000 anywhere need a resolution cos it is driving me bonkers.
Here is Vanilla's response:
So... we can enable the new embed system. But that doesn't seem to include ... errrr ... "embed comment functionality". Which is the entire point of Vanilla.
It probably. therefore, means it's time to move to another commenting system.
Does anyone have any suggestions?
It's amazing how they've managed to mess up one of the main reasons why the site chose this commenting system in the first place. What are the chances of that?
Although Labour definitely could lose its majority at the next election, I don't think the chart particularly supports that hypothesis. Labour has 40 or so seats with less than 35%, or one tenth of the 411 total.
Meanwhile on a similar cough the Conservatives also have 40 or so seats with less than 35%, making up a third of its 121 total.
There is already a 3% swing from Labour to Tory since the general election on the new BMG poll for the Independent last night
Do you have full figures for that poll, because I think it implies an increase for Reform, which doesn't really help the Tories even if it's at the expense of Labour?
Good morning
Reform on 19 % (+1) but @HYUFD will respond by saying conservative and reform are on 45% !!!
Tories also up to 26%
Given what a miserable August the new Labour government is reputed to have had, I'm not sure a rating of 26% for the Tories is much to celebrate.
CON are coming back
Little by little!
Good luck with the tickets folks!
133,072 people ahead of me in the queue, not looking good... a lot of error messages on the way there. I saw them at Earls Court back in the day, anyway, but my son is keen to go so will keep trying.
You’re doing better than my brother - who has two laptops, an ipad, and three phones running - and one of them now says there’s 231,577 people in the queue.
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
Not one person will stop smoking because they cannot smoke in a beer garden, is is virtue signalling for morons to detract from their crapness. It will also not reduce the NHS bill, they can spaff as much money as can be thrown at them. Where is that other moron who is supposed to be running the NHS, from being on TV/Radio every day saying how it was all costed and be fixed in no time to being the invisible man. England has exchanged a basket full of old turds for a basketful of fresh steaming ones.
Fantastic to see Angela Raver larging it good and proper in Ibiza. If only more of our politicians had a life. Sounds like she is great for a night out.
On top of theose 1.5 million house builds for sure.
For a few days now. Is @rcs1000 anywhere need a resolution cos it is driving me bonkers.
Here is Vanilla's response:
So... we can enable the new embed system. But that doesn't seem to include ... errrr ... "embed comment functionality". Which is the entire point of Vanilla.
It probably. therefore, means it's time to move to another commenting system.
Does anyone have any suggestions?
I’m on Vanilla and seeing oldest last, which is the only way I can follow what is going on. I normally can’t use the main site because it shows newest first. In my ideal world there ought to be a way for each reader to decide on their preferred order.
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
There's another chunky real terms increase in the state pension to announce this autumn (wages > inflation), which a competent government ought to be able to spin to take away a lot of the political sting.
And the reality is that, real-terms, pensioners will have more money this year than last. It's just that some of it won't come with a "winter fuel" label attached.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
Conversely I don't think the faithful labour correspondents grasp how quickly history becomes history. It's great establishing that the previous government was crap but it gets to be a bit like arguing that heavier than air flight is possible. That's history, this is current affairs and the topic du jour is the government du jour.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Is it any wonder these scumbags can do what they want , staff and snowflakes scared to say boo.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
For a few days now. Is @rcs1000 anywhere need a resolution cos it is driving me bonkers.
Here is Vanilla's response:
So... we can enable the new embed system. But that doesn't seem to include ... errrr ... "embed comment functionality". Which is the entire point of Vanilla.
It probably. therefore, means it's time to move to another commenting system.
Does anyone have any suggestions?
Very “New Tech Company” response.
We do things differently now, deal with it you retards.
(Actually the standard VF comment section works really well. It loads comments 100 posts at a time, and if you refresh it loads back at the point you left off).
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
They get beaten up and paralyzed and the employer is liable for not providing a safe system of work
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
In case it kicks off and someone gets injured. That will cost the firm much more than any shoplifting.
(When I worked there, "someone" tackled a shoplifter as they ran out. This smashed a window and knocked out the security scanners. Cost thousands of pounds and that someone relied on police discretion not to get arrested for assault)
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
There's another chunky real terms increase in the state pension to announce this autumn (wages > inflation), which a competent government ought to be able to spin to take away a lot of the political sting.
And the reality is that, real-terms, pensioners will have more money this year than last. It's just that some of it won't come with a "winter fuel" label attached.
You really are doolally, not just pretending.
Hi Malc!
Isn't it the case that:
1. The state pension is less stingy now than it has been for decades?
2. That the action of the triple lock gave it a hefty boost above inflation last year?
3. That the same triple lock will do something similar this year?
4. That points 2 and 3 are a bit more than the Great Winter Fuel Snatch?
Happy to be put right on those points. But I can't help remembering that a lot of current pensioners supported the governments of the 1980s who acted to make the pensions of their parents and grandparents meaner.
Thanks for an interesting article, with some startling data.
There are several separate subjects here. Firstly, betting. Our system currently increases uncertainty and wobbliness. This must be interesting and good for political gamblers.
Secondly, the stability of the system for democracy and politics. This is harder. I like (though misnamed) FPTP. Increasingly people don't. I think the 2024 election was a triumph of its merits.
We need three things: Government without total insanity; ability to chuck the rascals out; opportunity for new entrants. We also don't much like cobbled together coalitions, of which Israel is an example.
2024 delivered this: A total clear out of a party that 75% of voters didn't want. A government that isn't insane and isn't a random cobbling together; and gave the voters the opportunity, if they wish, next time to replace the Tories with the LDs as the leading party alongside Labour, but also gave the Tories the chance to reconstruct as a sane party if they can,as there are loads of seats they can take off both LDs and Labour should they start having an attractive offer.
AV is the only change which makes this work better. But we (wrongly) rejected this so it isn't going to happen.
No system of course prevents insane government if enough people want it. There is no evidence that enough do, happily.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
They get beaten up and paralyzed and the employer is liable for not providing a safe system of work
Or worse, the shoplifter gets smashed up and takes the firm to court.
You have to rock solid evidence for shoplifting - Malcolm's example above wouldn't cut it as you need to witness them bagging something, never take your eyes off them, and witness them leave the shop. Even then, how do you prove it wasn't a mistake?
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
Conversely I don't think the faithful labour correspondents grasp how quickly history becomes history. It's great establishing that the previous government was crap but it gets to be a bit like arguing that heavier than air flight is possible. That's history, this is current affairs and the topic du jour is the government du jour.
To be fair (and where I think a lot of this is coming from), there is a received wisdom that Cameron in no small part won in 2015 because he had successfully built the narrative that Labour spent too much money and could not be trusted with the economy again. Starmer is trying to copy that tactic.
The danger for Labour in that tactic is 1. fighting the new war with the weapons of the old often doesn’t work and 2. Cameron and Osborne entered power both with a) unexpected Lib Dem backup and b) had already campaigned on the basis that they were going to be making some significantly difficult choices on tax and spend. Labour have no such political backup and did not buy themselves enough cover in the GE campaign, IMHO.
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
Conversely I don't think the faithful labour correspondents grasp how quickly history becomes history. It's great establishing that the previous government was crap but it gets to be a bit like arguing that heavier than air flight is possible. That's history, this is current affairs and the topic du jour is the government du jour.
Labour will stand or fall on their record, and rightly so. My point is the likes of Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph are damning the current Government if they do or if they don't which is so far absurd. Take the smoking ban. Great when it was Rishi's idea, not so great now.
I welcome this government to be held to account when, for good or ill, they have done something.
But also remember Conservative Governments successfully dined out on Liam Byrne's letter for over a decade.
Although Labour definitely could lose its majority at the next election, I don't think the chart particularly supports that hypothesis. Labour has 40 or so seats with less than 35%, or one tenth of the 411 total.
Meanwhile on a similar cough the Conservatives also have 40 or so seats with less than 35%, making up a third of its 121 total.
Labour lost 90 seats and they've lost their majority.
Almost 50 of those already are "fake seats" and only delivered to them by centre-right voters splitting and going awol.
All Labour has to do is royally piss them off and they'll unite to defeat the Labour candidate. And boy oh boy are they pissing them off, and that's before the end of their second month in office.
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I see the dividing of the right as a positive thing. The other day, there was a poll where right wing parties outpolled left wing ones. That has not happened for years and wouldn't have happened without the rise of Reform.
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
Not one person will stop smoking because they cannot smoke in a beer garden, is is virtue signalling for morons to detract from their crapness. It will also not reduce the NHS bill, they can spaff as much money as can be thrown at them. Where is that other moron who is supposed to be running the NHS, from being on TV/Radio every day saying how it was all costed and be fixed in no time to being the invisible man. England has exchanged a basket full of old turds for a basketful of fresh steaming ones.
Not necessarily true. You stopped eating Gardners gateaux when the shop on the corner of Croft Street was closed and the luxury confection was no longer available to you, and don't you feel slimmer and healthier for it?
For a few days now. Is @rcs1000 anywhere need a resolution cos it is driving me bonkers.
Here is Vanilla's response:
So... we can enable the new embed system. But that doesn't seem to include ... errrr ... "embed comment functionality". Which is the entire point of Vanilla.
It probably. therefore, means it's time to move to another commenting system.
My wife noticed that people were appearing to buy at the self checkout at our Sainsbury's local by going through the process and presenting a card that gets rejected and then they walk out with the stuff as if they had paid. She has seen it several times as she follows these people on the same checkout.
So I reported it. They thanked me but told me they knew about it, which is one of the reasons they hover around the self checkout.
I make my living supporting tech, including systems like self service checkouts, but as a customer I loathe them with a passion normally reserved for Brexit (and all who sail in her)
Buying an item at a mainline London station recently there was magnificent chaos at the ranks of self service; I noticed a single person manning the old fashioned service till who seemed to have little to do and bought the item in seconds. I didn't push my luck by offering cash.
The circumstances that aligned at produce a Labour landslide on a 33% vote share will not be repeated in 2029...
Maybe a CON MASSIVE MAJORITY on 32% instead? 👍
Possible, I'm sure, but difficult. Those Lib Dems are going to be a bugger to shift- they can shout about opposing the government just as well, and they are probably better than the Conservatives at the necessary street-fighting. (See 2010 for an example; Labour did badly but the Lib Dems did fine.)
As long as those seats are off the table, even a brilliant Conservative performance elsewhere tops out at about 300 seats.
Strategically, the Lib Dems have got the easiest game of all next time- mop up some more Nice seats that currently vote Conservative. (Don't like the government but think X is horrid? Vote for us!) The Conservatives have got to do some mixture of winning Reformers, blue-tinged LibDem voters, and classic suburban swingers. Even when the Starmer government screws up, that won't be an easy mix.
What's happened to the weather; cloudy, with sudden sharp showers here this morning!
On topic, an excellent, thought-provoking header Mr C; thanks. One point, though, that you didn't make, or which I missed was that turnout in July was among, if not the, lowest since 1945. That adds a further uncertainty to forecasting 2029.
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
Conversely I don't think the faithful labour correspondents grasp how quickly history becomes history. It's great establishing that the previous government was crap but it gets to be a bit like arguing that heavier than air flight is possible. That's history, this is current affairs and the topic du jour is the government du jour.
Labour will stand or fall on their record, and rightly so. My point is the likes of Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph are damning the current Government if they do or if they don't which is so far absurd. Take the smoking ban. Great when it was Rishi's idea, not so great now.
I welcome this government to be held to account when, for good or ill, they have done something.
But also remember Conservative Governments successfully dined out on Liam Byrne's letter for over a decade.
These are entirely different and far more volatile times. And Labour only got 34% on a pitiful turnout
And what the right is trying to do now is exactly what it should be doing: framing Starner in his first 100 days in a negative light that he will never escape. As the depressing nasal voiced puritan loser who wants your nan to freeze to death so he can put more Afghans in hotels as he shutters all the pubs so you can’t even drown your sorrows
It’s working very well. Not least because Starmer seems clueless about PR and is handing them all this material
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I see the dividing of the right as a positive thing. The other day, there was a poll where right wing parties outpolled left wing ones. That has not happened for years and wouldn't have happened without the rise of Reform.
I can’t see the right wing parties merging, ever. But I can see an electoral alliance of convenience where they both step aside where the other has a better chance
Tories could get 300 seats, reform 100 (I’m pulling these numbers out of my temporarily Balkan butt) and they win as an informal coalition
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
That’s already happening in America. Stores where almost anything of value is locked in vitrines
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
That’s already happening in America. Stores where almost anything of value is locked in vitrines
Take away the rule of law, and we can't have nice things.
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I see the dividing of the right as a positive thing. The other day, there was a poll where right wing parties outpolled left wing ones. That has not happened for years and wouldn't have happened without the rise of Reform.
I can’t see the right wing parties merging, ever. But I can see an electoral alliance of convenience where they both step aside where the other has a better chance
Tories could get 300 seats, reform 100 (I’m pulling these numbers out of my temporarily Balkan butt) and they win as an informal coalition
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
Most successful pols have succeeded by having a talent for uniting extreme wings of their party or political position, but that age might be passing. Can you imagine a leader that will command the loyalty of say Marjory Taylor Green & Mitt Romney or Suella Braverman & David Gauke? The current colossus of UK politics Starmer got a massive majority on a shrivelled vote share by stamping on the left of the party, but that’s still got to come out in the wash.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
Does anyone have similar accounts?
I got one stopped in M&S last week , barsteward was shovelling joints into a carrier bag right next to me , the staff got him at door and asked him to show what was in bag and he handed it to them and legged it. Personally I would have the scumbags arms broken in several places which would restrict them and make them think twice the next time.
I suggest publishing their name and address.
And announcing that anyone stealing from them will not be prosecuted.
Should have quite an effect on the middle class shoplifters.
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I see the dividing of the right as a positive thing. The other day, there was a poll where right wing parties outpolled left wing ones. That has not happened for years and wouldn't have happened without the rise of Reform.
I can’t see the right wing parties merging, ever. But I can see an electoral alliance of convenience where they both step aside where the other has a better chance
Tories could get 300 seats, reform 100 (I’m pulling these numbers out of my temporarily Balkan butt) and they win as an informal coalition
Winning an election is one thing.
Competently governing is another.
Fail to do the second and you're not likely to be doing the first again for quite a while.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
That’s already happening in a number of cities the US.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
That’s already happening in America. Stores where almost anything of value is locked in vitrines
Take away the rule of law, and we can't have nice things.
Yes, and with the right tacitly supporting the looters and rioters it isn't going to get better.
If there's one thing that Starmer gets it is the Criminal Justice system, so hopefully we can get away from the piss poor policing and justice system of the last decade.
I notice that someone said Beetleguese again, so catch you later.
Comments
The circumstances that aligned at produce a Labour landslide on a 33% vote share will not be repeated in 2029...
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/voters-labour-dishonest-tax-plans-fuel-duty-rise-3253546
Fascinating graph (again, this thread).
The pendulum is not just swinging in two dimensions, anymore, either.
It shows that old style campaigning works with footsloggers on the ground and poster boards up.
Shockhat Adam did the same in Leicester. There were posters and street activists all over Evington. I didn't think he could do it, but he did. He has got stuck into the constituency work too and is going to be tough to unseat.
But a cough won't bring down Labour before 2029, no matter how much CR wishes it would.
We have chosen our government for 5 years.
Little by little!
Good luck with the tickets folks!
https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/the-rise-and-stall-of-kamala-harris-580
The result is one of the classic rope-a-dope tricks, the opposition getting excited because they're ahead in the polls shortly after an election. After 1979, it took about a month, after 2010 it took about five.
Now it's only £180 extra a year if you earn £43,660 but it adds up.
That doesn't mean there isn't a big risk. Part of the tolerance that someone like me has for higher taxes is the social contract I have with my country. In other words - universal benefits.
That's the NHS, free prescriptions, free university tuition, free bus passes, cheap rail tickets to Glasgow, free school meals and so on. These policies are grossly inefficient for things like child poverty, but of significant benefit to middle class home owners like me. As the fiscal position tightens, the SNP and Labour, to a lesser extent, will find themselves trapped in a choice between these two principles.
Harvest your capital gains Buy popcorn. Buy sub 12 months for 2 tier's first commons defeat.
Conservatives didn't just fail to deal with the problem, it wasn't even a priority for them.
Labour's job before the next election is to get that confidence back.
There's more in that vein, but it's emblematic.
Also, the SNP - it bears repeating as a few on PB seem not to grasp that (not necessarily including eek) - is a minority government, so it's not just the SNP maintaining those budget decisions (though Slab usually refused to vote for the budget on the Bain Principle, even if it was what they wanted).
Close, but no cigar.
Inherently incalculable.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
Also on the agenda (and much harder to deal with) needs to be a review of the regulation around financial services to unpick the vast pyramid scheme of PE in the post-cheap-money era, without bringing it all crashing down in one catastrophic evacuation.
The voter coalitions are all over the place and there appears to be little by way of party loyalty anymore. 2017 and 2019 were the first cracks in that. 2024 blew it wide open.
It might only take small shifts in policy, or approach, to turn a sizeable bucket of the electorate over to other parties.
There are scenarios where I can start to see poll results like 20 CON/ 20 LAB / 20 REF / 15 LD / 15 GRN being thrown up midterm, with each party +\- 5 or so of that.
At the next GE, the winning party is going to be the one who is able to assemble a coalition of voters better than the others, and it will also come down to Labours record in government as to whether voters swing back for fear of the Tories/AN other.
Because it is a franchise, the store is really a corner shop with some Tesco branding. So the manager takes a keen interest in shop lifting.
The managers distant cousin “hangs around” and, while not employed by the store (no sire, not at all), seems to enjoy assaulting shop lifters. He’s been up in front of the beaks a coulee of times, but is always back. I guess the revolving door works for everyone…
I must suggest to the manager a franchise offering for store security. Get in on the ground floor of these things…
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
A return to something more UNS like is not impossible - after the very non-UNS, proportional swing GE result in Scotland in 2015, subsequent elections have tacked closer to UNS.
So I reported it. They thanked me but told me they knew about it, which is one of the reasons they hover around the self checkout.
They might have a tiff and cancel
They might spend now till then writing new material and just play that
There's an actuarial risk from too much coke over too long a period
I'm out
End of days
And the reality is that, real-terms, pensioners will have more money this year than last. It's just that some of it won't come with a "winter fuel" label attached.
The Conservative leadership hopeful on why the party must win back its ‘neglected’ membership – and how a war hero continues to inspire him"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/08/31/mel-stride-tories-should-learn-from-unions/
So... we can enable the new embed system. But that doesn't seem to include ... errrr ... "embed comment functionality". Which is the entire point of Vanilla.
It probably. therefore, means it's time to move to another commenting system.
Does anyone have any suggestions?
There are also some benefits where the social outcomes are a bit undervalued; particularly FSMs. I think the stigma associated with them is very unhelpful, so universal food provision in schools is a valuable shared experience.
In my ideal world there ought to be a way for each reader to decide on their preferred order.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rd1yzgl0qo
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
We do things differently now, deal with it you retards.
(Actually the standard VF comment section works really well. It loads comments 100 posts at a time, and if you refresh it loads back at the point you left off).
Good morning, everyone.
(When I worked there, "someone" tackled a shoplifter as they ran out. This smashed a window and knocked out the security scanners. Cost thousands of pounds and that someone relied on police discretion not to get arrested for assault)
Isn't it the case that:
1. The state pension is less stingy now than it has been for decades?
2. That the action of the triple lock gave it a hefty boost above inflation last year?
3. That the same triple lock will do something similar this year?
4. That points 2 and 3 are a bit more than the Great Winter Fuel Snatch?
Happy to be put right on those points. But I can't help remembering that a lot of current pensioners supported the governments of the 1980s who acted to make the pensions of their parents and grandparents meaner.
There are several separate subjects here. Firstly, betting. Our system currently increases uncertainty and wobbliness. This must be interesting and good for political gamblers.
Secondly, the stability of the system for democracy and politics. This is harder. I like (though misnamed) FPTP. Increasingly people don't. I think the 2024 election was a triumph of its merits.
We need three things: Government without total insanity; ability to chuck the rascals out; opportunity for new entrants. We also don't much like cobbled together coalitions, of which Israel is an example.
2024 delivered this: A total clear out of a party that 75% of voters didn't want. A government that isn't insane and isn't a random cobbling together; and gave the voters the opportunity, if they wish, next time to replace the Tories with the LDs as the leading party alongside Labour, but also gave the Tories the chance to reconstruct as a sane party if they can,as there are loads of seats they can take off both LDs and Labour should they start having an attractive offer.
AV is the only change which makes this work better. But we (wrongly) rejected this so it isn't going to happen.
No system of course prevents insane government if enough people want it. There is no evidence that enough do, happily.
You have to rock solid evidence for shoplifting - Malcolm's example above wouldn't cut it as you need to witness them bagging something, never take your eyes off them, and witness them leave the shop. Even then, how do you prove it wasn't a mistake?
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
The danger for Labour in that tactic is 1. fighting the new war with the weapons of the old often doesn’t work and 2. Cameron and Osborne entered power both with a) unexpected Lib Dem backup and b) had already campaigned on the basis that they were going to be making some significantly difficult choices on tax and spend. Labour have no such political backup and did not buy themselves enough cover in the GE campaign, IMHO.
I welcome this government to be held to account when, for good or ill, they have done something.
But also remember Conservative Governments successfully dined out on Liam Byrne's letter for over a decade.
Mel Stride in that article is claiming 170k+.
https://archive.ph/XMYT3
I can last see official numbers from 2022, when indeed it was 172,437 entitled to vote in the ballot.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-62760180?pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:343a0159-4b24-498a-86d8-79ceb11e434b&pinned_post_asset_id=6315ef435406b91fca2cd224&pinned_post_type=share
We're due an update.
Same goes for banning fags.
https://discourse.org/
I've not used it but seem to have some big name clients like Monzo bank.
As long as those seats are off the table, even a brilliant Conservative performance elsewhere tops out at about 300 seats.
Strategically, the Lib Dems have got the easiest game of all next time- mop up some more Nice seats that currently vote Conservative. (Don't like the government but think X is horrid? Vote for us!) The Conservatives have got to do some mixture of winning Reformers, blue-tinged LibDem voters, and classic suburban swingers. Even when the Starmer government screws up, that won't be an easy mix.
What's happened to the weather; cloudy, with sudden sharp showers here this morning!
On topic, an excellent, thought-provoking header Mr C; thanks. One point, though, that you didn't make, or which I missed was that turnout in July was among, if not the, lowest since 1945.
That adds a further uncertainty to forecasting 2029.
And what the right is trying to do now is exactly what it should be doing: framing Starner in his first 100 days in a negative light that he will never escape. As the depressing nasal voiced puritan loser who wants your nan to freeze to death so he can put more Afghans in hotels as he shutters all the pubs so you can’t even drown your sorrows
It’s working very well. Not least because Starmer seems clueless about PR and is handing them all this material
Even the Guardian is concerned
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/30/labours-doom-and-gloom-messaging-on-the-economy-risks-backfiring
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
Tories could get 300 seats, reform 100 (I’m pulling these numbers out of my temporarily Balkan butt) and they win as an informal coalition
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
Are you, to quote Take That, "Back for Good"?
Welcome back.
And announcing that anyone stealing from them will not be prosecuted.
Should have quite an effect on the middle class shoplifters.
Competently governing is another.
Fail to do the second and you're not likely to be doing the first again for quite a while.
If there's one thing that Starmer gets it is the Criminal Justice system, so hopefully we can get away from the piss poor policing and justice system of the last decade.
I notice that someone said Beetleguese again, so catch you later.
> 50% 2019 8 2024 6 (45-49%) 2019 30 2024 18 (40-45%) 2019 14 2024 18 (35-40%) 2019 4 2024 7 (30-35%) 2019 1 2024 7 (<30%) 2019 0 2024 1
The number of high risk seats has grown from 5 to 15.
The only party to improve safety is the LD who now have 3 of the >50%.