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The pollsters could be missing a Harris surge – politicalbetting.com

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  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,338
    rcs1000 said:

    I think it's possible that Trump wins the Sunbelt and the Rustbelt. It's also possible that Harris does. And it is further possible that they split them.


    I tend to agree with you that Harris probably
    has more room to outperform expectations,
    but - voter registration numbers apart - the mpolls do not currently support such an
    outcome.
    If the polls did support that result it wouldn’t really be “outperformance” though…

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    rcs1000 said:

    But Trump did none of those things.

    Now, the things he did created the atmosphere for that to happen. And his words were incendiary. But he did not lead an armed insurrection.

    He did for sure, though, organize slates of Fake Electors with the express intention of overthrowing an election. He should be in jail for that.
    https://x.com/PrivateEyeNews/status/1829122362899382597
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    edited August 2024
    Legal question -

    Should it be illegal to smoke a joint in a pub garden, while planning an invasion of the Houses of Parliament, using an encrypted social media app?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    Legal question -

    Should it be illegal to smoke a joint in a pub garden, while planning an invasion of the Houses of Parliament, using an encrypted social media app?

    What sort of loser would do that in a pub garden?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081

    Legal question -

    Should it be illegal to smoke a joint in a pub garden, while planning an invasion of the Houses of Parliament, using an encrypted social media app?

    https://x.com/JamesMelville/status/1829105709310410834
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    edited August 2024
    kinabalu said:

    I'd be interested in how people assess the election on the following formulation (the numbers being where I am):

    Harris landslide 10%
    Harris comfortable 30%
    Harris just 25%
    Trump just 25%
    Trump comfortable 5%
    Trump landslide 5%

    You have to define those, otherwise hard to say. But you have Harris at 65% so backing Harris looks like a value bet for you at the moment.

    If we say it means

    Harris 380+ EC votes
    Harris 310-379 EC votes
    Harris 270-309 EC votes
    Trump 270- 309 EC votes
    Trump 310-379 EC votes
    Trump 380+ EC votes

    269-269 tie (favours Trump)

    It's actually really hard for Trump to get over 380 EC votes so far as I can see - maybe 2% rather than 5% . Harris to get over 380 would mean her winning all the swing states and Florida and Texas (for example), so unlikely but not as hard, maybe 10% is roughly right, maybe a bit more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,211
    Eabhal said:

    Bit more complicated than that - a large proportion of costs come in the final 12 months of life, whenever those are, so life expectancy is less important than you might think for most people.

    It's healthy life expectancy that's important, so if smokers die 5 years earlier but start getting lots of conditions 15 years before non-smokers do, the net effect is worse. This is also why people with obesity cost so much, suffering with with minor but expensive conditions for decades.
    There's no corresponding tax gain for the obese, though.
    And the conditions associated with it - diabetes especially - start costing large amounts both in healthcare and lost productivity, long before end of life costs.

    The calculations twenty years ago for smokers showed a net benefit to the exchequer; more recent studies show a significant net cost (but only after taking into account things like lost productivity).
    It's a complicated question, and the results depend much on the assumptions underlying the studies. Some recent ones include QALYs in the equation - which of course shows a much higher cost.

    As far as obesity is concerned, the calculations showed a net cost, even two decades ago.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    @Reuters

    Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 45% to 41% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll that showed the vice president sparking new enthusiasm among voters and shaking up the race ahead of the Nov. 5 election

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1829138210217156882
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,421
    Sandpit said:

    Remember folks, that there’s always someone having a worse day than you.

    Safety car driver at Monza just binned it while practising for the F1 meeting this weekend.

    https://x.com/fourrnorris/status/1829135771174899757

    Not as bad as this one:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWq8zH5GjA0
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,580
    edited August 2024
    Sandpit said:

    No, it’s like saying it was Nigel Farage’s fault.
    You mean the man who publicly claimed the police were "hiding something" and demanded the police confirm the Southport murderer was an illegal Syrian Asylum Seeker, based exclusively on information he had gleaned from Andrew Tate's Twitter X account.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,153
    rcs1000 said:

    This is a powerful little abortion video from the Project Lincoln guys:

    https://x.com/ProfMMurray/status/1828488148336418988

    There are people who will watch that video and think "What's the problem with that?"

    Some of them post on here.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,290
    ydoethur said:

    I also don't think it's true any more.

    It used to be the case that taxes on smoking paid for the entire NHS, in the 1980s when more people smoked and costs were lower, but not now.

    Tax receipts from smoking last year: £8.8 billion.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/284329/tobacco-duty-united-kingdom-hmrc-tax-receipts/

    NHS Budget for England alone last year: £168.8 billion

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/our-2023-24-business-plan/

    I very much doubt if smoking related cancers and other illnesses only cost 5% of NHS budget.
    On the basis that people will all eventually die of something, and that something will often cost lots of NHS money, I suspect that the lifetime costs of smokers to the NHS/social care is probably lower than non-smokers - they are mostly just bringing forward their expensive death by 10-20 years, rather than avoiding it forever.
    Every potential dementia sufferer who instead dies at 65 from lung cancer must cost vastly less, even accounting for the cancer treatment.

    I'm not sure this is a strong argument for permitting smoking, but trying to justify banning it because of the cost to the NHS doesn't really pass the smell test.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    Scott_xP said:

    @Reuters

    Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 45% to 41% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll that showed the vice president sparking new enthusiasm among voters and shaking up the race ahead of the Nov. 5 election

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1829138210217156882

    I wonder what the missing 14% represents. Seems too high to be DK.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    rcs1000 said:

    But Trump did none of those things.

    Now, the things he did created the atmosphere for that to happen. And his words were incendiary. But he did not lead an armed insurrection.

    He did for sure, though, organize slates of Fake Electors with the express intention of overthrowing an election. He should be in jail for that.
    We were debating whether it was a violent insurrection. Who was involved is a separate question.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Andy_JS said:

    One of the problems with electronic payments is that quite often you don't bother to check the amount you're paying, out of laziness. You just touch your card on the reader, etc, and assume it's right. With cash you always know that you've paid the right amount, based on what you've given and what change you've got back.
    Some bizarre ‘logic’ at play with this one.

    The pro-cash propaganda gets weirder daily.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    Millions of poor and elderly people use cashless daily, not least on the London bus network – which has been cashless for years. You very rapidly get used to it. People adapt. And then wonder why they ever bothered with an antiquated system of plastic slips and shards of pointless metal!
    It would be interesting to see if the number of poor and elderly people using the London bus network has stayed the same, decreased, or increased after cash was banned. I expect you'd know the answer to that, given your confident comments about it. ;)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    "Pensioners required to answer 243 questions to claim winter fuel payments"

    https://news.sky.com/story/money-blog-latest-consumer-13040934
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Taz said:

    You keep going on about the London bus network. You keep just referencing London.
    I am given to believe that many other buses are now cashless… even outside That London!!!
  • You mean the man who publicly claimed the police were "hiding something" and demanded the police confirm the Southport murderer was an illegal Syrian Asylum Seeker, based exclusively on information he had gleaned from Andrew Tate's Twitter X account.
    A stupid thing to do, but doent make it his fault, or anyone's fault including Andrew Tate.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    I’ll offer 90p in the £ for as many as you have to sell
    I’d probably accept that - if I had any 😅
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,763
    edited August 2024
    Nigelb said:

    There's no corresponding tax gain for the obese, though.
    And the conditions associated with it - diabetes especially - start costing large amounts both in healthcare and lost productivity, long before end of life costs.

    The calculations twenty years ago for smokers showed a net benefit to the exchequer; more recent studies show a significant net cost (but only after taking into account things like lost productivity).
    It's a complicated question, and the results depend much on the assumptions underlying the studies. Some recent ones include QALYs in the equation - which of course shows a much higher cost.

    As far as obesity is concerned, the calculations showed a net cost, even two decades ago.
    I think the tax thing is a huge red herring and represents too much time looking at spreadsheets rather than thinking about what makes life good for people and the economy in the long term.

    Smoking has never been a net gain to the Treasury, simply because the alternative (no smoking and taxing something else instead) can be fiscally neutral and the cash obtained can be spent on something else.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    tlg86 said:

    Not as bad as this one:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWq8zH5GjA0
    I did think of that one, although it was technically the medical car rather than the safety car, the MC driver did nothing wrong, it was the idiot coming around the corner flat out and missing the large red flag that caused the accident.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    kinabalu said:

    Smoking is on its way out in the UK and all of this is just to help it through the door. Accelerate its final demise by a few years. That's worth it imo. It's an awful drug, unique amongst its peers in having no upside whatsoever. It ruins your health, spoils your looks, empties your wallet in the direction of multinational companies, makes you stink, and you don't even get a high. I'm a lifelong smoker and I'd support just about every banning measure short of 'in own home' or 'middle of a field'.
    Modern British politics consists in not building anything, banning stuff, telling people off, and calling anyone you disagree with evil/a racist/unworthy of holding an opinion.
    @AaronBastani 10:31 PM · Jun 12, 2023

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    viewcode said:

    Modern British politics consists in not building anything, banning stuff, telling people off, and calling anyone you disagree with evil/a racist/unworthy of holding an opinion.
    @AaronBastani 10:31 PM · Jun 12, 2023

    What on Earth would that Corbynite know about bullying people and telling them to shut up? 🤔
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,211

    Emerson College has released its battleground state polls.

    https://www.270towin.com/polls/latest-2024-presidential-election-polls/

    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-election-in-swing-states.

    New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%).

    Some weird things going on there.

    In Arizona for example they have Trump ahead of Harris by 2% among women voters (though I think that might be a typo, as it has Harris/Trump listed the other way round for Georgia, directly underneath).
    Women voters
    AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
    GA: Harris 54%, Trump 44%


    The Fox News poll has her winning that demographic 52-44.
    https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/08/Fox_August-23-26-2024_Arizona_Cross-Tabs_August-28-Release.pdf

    Even assuming a typo, Emerson have a Harris lead of 2% among women voters, and the Fox poll an 8% lead.
    The two pollsters must have far different sampling/adjustments to come up with such different results in a demographic which represents half of the entire sample.

    That's why I'm sceptical about US polling.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Yesterday I was dead against the beer garden smoking ban because I’m sometimes tempted to smoke in beer gardens.

    Today I’m mildly pro on the beer garden smoking ban because I’m sometimes tempted to smoke in beer gardens.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    edited August 2024
    Some people I'd totally forgotten about from the pandemic/lockdowns.

    Dr John Campbell.
    https://www.youtube.com/@Campbellteaching/videos

    @CricketWyvern aka David Paton.
    https://x.com/cricketwyvern
  • Rather than banning smoking, Starmer should turn his attention to banning all discussion of 'cash' on PB, for the greater good.

    FOR THE GREATER GOOD!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    edited August 2024
    theProle said:

    On the basis that people will all eventually die of something, and that something will often cost lots of NHS money, I suspect that the lifetime costs of smokers to the NHS/social care is probably lower than non-smokers - they are mostly just bringing forward their expensive death by 10-20 years, rather than avoiding it forever.
    Every potential dementia sufferer who instead dies at 65 from lung cancer must cost vastly less, even accounting for the cancer treatment.

    I'm not sure this is a strong argument for permitting smoking, but trying to justify banning it because of the cost to the NHS doesn't really pass the smell test.
    Yes the real and stronger argument (for a ban) is that the end of cigarette smoking will foster a happier healthier population. Politicians shy away from that because it sounds a bit nanny state and opt instead for the more bloodless lowfalutin 'it will reduce pressure on the NHS'.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,211
    Eabhal said:

    I think the tax thing is a huge red herring and represents too much time looking at spreadsheets rather than thinking about what makes life good for people and the economy in the long term.

    Smoking has never been a net gain to the Treasury, simply because the alternative (no smoking and taxing something else instead) can be fiscally neutral and the cash obtained can be spent on something else.
    Red herring or not, governments do conduct such economic analyses.
    These days, though, they all tend to come up with a net cost to society, across the globe.

    Interpreting results, impacts and implications from WHO FCTC tobacco control investment cases in 21 low-income and middle-income countries
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11103323/
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,421
    Sandpit said:

    I did think of that one, although it was technically the medical car rather than the safety car, the MC driver did nothing wrong, it was the idiot coming around the corner flat out and missing the large red flag that caused the accident.
    My friend's dad got taken round the Nurburgring by Bert Mylander. He said it was one of the scariest experiences of his life.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 981
    How much of this surge would have happened anyway if Biden had stayed on? It could be Dems who were not very enthusiastic but were always gonna register. Looking at the largest surges those are the base of the base for the dems- they would have likely registered and voted anyway. Its those that are on the edge of the dem base you need to look at such as white moderate men. Are they surging?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,763
    theProle said:

    On the basis that people will all eventually die of something, and that something will often cost lots of NHS money, I suspect that the lifetime costs of smokers to the NHS/social care is probably lower than non-smokers - they are mostly just bringing forward their expensive death by 10-20 years, rather than avoiding it forever.
    Every potential dementia sufferer who instead dies at 65 from lung cancer must cost vastly less, even accounting for the cancer treatment.

    I'm not sure this is a strong argument for permitting smoking, but trying to justify banning it because of the cost to the NHS doesn't really pass the smell test.
    That assumes that smokers don't use the NHS more than any other person in the years preceding their death, which isn't the case. You might be right about dementia sufferers though.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    Sandpit said:

    I did think of that one, although it was technically the medical car rather than the safety car, the MC driver did nothing wrong, it was the idiot coming around the corner flat out and missing the large red flag that caused the accident.
    I *think* Prof. Watkins broke his arm in that incident; he was holding onto the door handle when the door got hit. If so, it was the incident that led to his decision to retire from medical car duties a couple of years later.

    It also was not Heidfeld's fault; the red flag came out too late, and there were no waved double-yellow flags. The Ferrari got through because he had a better view of the MC car moving across the track; Heidfeld arrived later, when the MC was behind the wreck.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 981
    Also comparing to 2020 amidst of a pandemic is dubious, you're not comparing like for like when voting rules back then were more relaxed.
  • Sandpit said:

    If new builds are required to have so much insulation that we start having to install air conditioning for the summer, is that not totally counter-productive to the target of reducing power consumption?
    One of the advantages of air source heat pumps is that you can set them to work as air conditioners. It needs an engineer.

    Currently the gov are not offering grants if you can do both.

    Add solar panels and you have a free to run cooling system. But it requires a bit of faffing about to set it up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,211
    edited August 2024
    This is just bizarre.
    Every US presidential candidate, certainly since Carter, has done their first TV interview along with their VP candidate.

    Watters, who interviewed Trump and Vance together, attacks Harris for doing an interview with Walz
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1828950610387054687


    As per Carter's former speechwriter.
    Correct. It is NORMAL practice for the first big interview, after a VP pick, to be nominee AND running mate.

    Saw this first-hand starting with J Carter / W Mondale long ago.

    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1828860856995905947
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 981

    There was also the info a couple of weeks back that someone had posted a thread on TwiX titled 'Can my husband find out it how I voted', (showing that they couldn't) which had 8 million views in less than a week.
    Those husbands aren't going to be Harris voters, are they?

    They could be women with very conservative husbands who want to vote for Dem because of abortion but don't want their husbands finding out.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    tlg86 said:

    My friend's dad got taken round the Nurburgring by Bert Mylander. He said it was one of the scariest experiences of his life.
    I know a few people who have done the “‘Ring Taxi”, and all of them barely crawled out of the car at the end of the lap.

    I once did a much shorter hot lap at Thruxton in the passenger seat of a touring car, and it was seriously impressive just how much speed the pro driver can take into a corner in a proper race car.

    Fun fact. The ‘Ring Taxi used to do about five laps on a set of tyres, and they changed the brakes at lunchtime and in the evening. You wouldn’t want to buy a used one!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    @KevinASchofield

    NEW: Catherine Smith KC - youngest daughter of former Labour leader John Smith - has been made a life peer in order to become the new Advocate General for Scotland.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    viewcode said:

    Modern British politics consists in not building anything, banning stuff, telling people off, and calling anyone you disagree with evil/a racist/unworthy of holding an opinion.
    @AaronBastani 10:31 PM · Jun 12, 2023

    Ok but I sense a false linkage there. There's no reason we can't build like the clappers and at the same time ban stuff, tell people off, and call everyone we disagree with evil/a racist/unworthy of holding an opinion. In fact that's pretty much what I was voting for on July 4th.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    That’ll buff out in no time.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    Nigelb said:

    Some weird things going on there.

    In Arizona for example they have Trump ahead of Harris by 2% among women voters (though I think that might be a typo, as it has Harris/Trump listed the other way round for Georgia, directly underneath).
    Women voters
    AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
    GA: Harris 54%, Trump 44%


    The Fox News poll has her winning that demographic 52-44.
    https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/08/Fox_August-23-26-2024_Arizona_Cross-Tabs_August-28-Release.pdf

    Even assuming a typo, Emerson have a Harris lead of 2% among women voters, and the Fox poll an 8% lead.
    The two pollsters must have far different sampling/adjustments to come up with such different results in a demographic which represents half of the entire sample.

    That's why I'm sceptical about US polling.
    They consistently put the leader in the demographic first, so I don't believe it's a typo.

    The main* issue is that the sample sizes are really small. Just 800 for the Georgia poll, which is then ~400 for women and even less once you strip out don't knows, etc. The confidence intervals are so large that the difference between the two polls isn't close to being statistically significant.

    * Besides the obvious one of the non-response bias and the impossibility of obtaining a truly random sample.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    Nunu5 said:

    They could be women with very conservative husbands who want to vote for Dem because of abortion but don't want their husbands finding out.
    That's something I kind of hope is true and also not true.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    kinabalu said:

    Smoking is on its way out in the UK and all of this is just to help it through the door. Accelerate its final demise by a few years. That's worth it imo. It's an awful drug, unique amongst its peers in having no upside whatsoever. It ruins your health, spoils your looks, empties your wallet in the direction of multinational companies, makes you stink, and you don't even get a high. I'm a lifelong smoker and I'd support just about every banning measure short of 'in own home' or 'middle of a field'.
    Some people say that smoking causes a measurable increase in IQ.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,636
    kinabalu said:

    Yes the real and stronger argument (for a ban) is that the end of cigarette smoking will foster a happier healthier population. Politicians shy away from that because it sounds a bit nanny state and opt instead for the more bloodless lowfalutin 'it will reduce pressure on the NHS'.
    In all honesty, I thought the gradually-increasing-age-of-legality was quite clever, as it doesn't take away anyone's existing rights.
    I still thought it fundamentally wrong, though - in general, it shouldn't be the business of the state from stopping people making stupid decisions.
    [Disclaimer: I have smoked, what, 5 cigarettes in my life, all as a teenager. From memory, I don't think it's true that there is no upside - they do induce a pleasant buzz. Which is presumably why people disregard the downsides and do it. Didn't seem worth the money to me, but not entirely without upside. I refrained from any further experimentation after finding an unopened pack of B&H in the street, aged about 16, trying one, and finding the thought of ploughing sufficiently discouraging to never bother again. With, I think, some relief.]
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    edited August 2024
    Nigelb said:

    This is just bizarre.
    Every US presidential candidate, certainly since Carter, has done their first TV interview along with their VP candidate.

    Watters, who interviewed Trump and Vance together, attacks Harris for doing an interview with Walz
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1828950610387054687


    As per Carter's former speechwriter.
    Correct. It is NORMAL practice for the first big interview, after a VP pick, to be nominee AND running mate.

    Saw this first-hand starting with J Carter / W Mondale long ago.

    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1828860856995905947

    Looking for logic in the minds of ardent Trump supporters tends to be an unprofitable exercise.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    Nigelb said:

    This is just bizarre.
    Every US presidential candidate, certainly since Carter, has done their first TV interview along with their VP candidate.

    Watters, who interviewed Trump and Vance together, attacks Harris for doing an interview with Walz
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1828950610387054687


    As per Carter's former speechwriter.
    Correct. It is NORMAL practice for the first big interview, after a VP pick, to be nominee AND running mate.

    Saw this first-hand starting with J Carter / W Mondale long ago.

    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1828860856995905947

    They will criticise a Democrat for breathing, sleeping, standing or sitting down.

    Media should have long ago stopped taking them seriously.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,580
    Nunu5 said:

    They could be women with very conservative husbands who want to vote for Dem because of abortion but don't want their husbands finding out.
    Does that imply the potential for shy Harris polled voters over there in Gilead?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    Cookie said:

    In all honesty, I thought the gradually-increasing-age-of-legality was quite clever, as it doesn't take away anyone's existing rights.
    I still thought it fundamentally wrong, though - in general, it shouldn't be the business of the state from stopping people making stupid decisions.
    [Disclaimer: I have smoked, what, 5 cigarettes in my life, all as a teenager. From memory, I don't think it's true that there is no upside - they do induce a pleasant buzz. Which is presumably why people disregard the downsides and do it. Didn't seem worth the money to me, but not entirely without upside. I refrained from any further experimentation after finding an unopened pack of B&H in the street, aged about 16, trying one, and finding the thought of ploughing sufficiently discouraging to never bother again. With, I think, some relief.]
    We ban cannabis, cocaine, LSD, MDMA etc. Nicotine is more addictive than those. If you're going to ban any drugs, there's a strong argument that you ban smoking.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    edited August 2024

    They will criticise a Democrat for breathing, sleeping, standing or sitting down.

    Media should have long ago stopped taking them seriously.
    The problem is that "they" includes some of the media. This is the sort of bias Fox pumps out 24/7.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,636
    kinabalu said:

    Yes the real and stronger argument (for a ban) is that the end of cigarette smoking will foster a happier healthier population. Politicians shy away from that because it sounds a bit nanny state and opt instead for the more bloodless lowfalutin 'it will reduce pressure on the NHS'.
    Are non-smokers happier, when controlled for other relevant factors like wealth?
  • Some people say that smoking causes a measurable increase in IQ.
    Those people must have been dropped on their heads as infants.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    edited August 2024
    Cookie said:

    Are non-smokers happier, when controlled for other relevant factors like wealth?
    Most smokers want to be non-smokers, suggesting so.

    https://truthinitiative.org/research-resources/quitting-smoking-vaping/quitting-tobacco-facts-and-stats#:~:text=Most smokers — nearly 70% —,make quit attempts each year.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    edited August 2024
    A compromise with pub gardens would be to have most of the garden smoke free and say 30% or 25% of it available for smokers. If it's windy you could select the area so the smoke won't blow from the smoking to the non-smoking area.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,636

    Most smokers want to be non-smokers, suggesting so.
    That's a reasonable logical leap, I think. I guess I just don't understand why it's difficult. Which is not to say that it isn't - just that I don't have anything to compare it to.
  • We ban cannabis, cocaine, LSD, MDMA etc. Nicotine is more addictive than those. If you're going to ban any drugs, there's a strong argument that you ban smoking.
    You're right.

    The problem is prohibition doesn't work and causes more problems than it solves.

    Smoking is bad and I'd like to see it eliminated, but I'd rather cannabis, cocaine, LSD, MDMA etc were legalised and sold alongside nicotine behind a counter at ASDA etc, than see nicotine criminalised.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152

    Those people must have been dropped on their heads as infants.
    I wouldn't have thought that would account for it.
  • I wouldn't have thought that would account for it.
    It would account for them believing something so incredibly stupid, yes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    edited August 2024

    Emerson College has released its battleground state polls.

    https://www.270towin.com/polls/latest-2024-presidential-election-polls/

    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-election-in-swing-states.

    New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%).

    If Emerson is correct Harris would likely win the EC but by the narrowest of margins, on the above states she leads 263 to 256 for Trump. However if Pennsylvania, which is tied, went for Trump he would win 275-263. Either way it would be the closest Presidential election result in the EC since 2000 and Bush v Gore
    https://www.270towin.com/
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    Andy_JS said:

    A compromise with pub gardens would be to have most of the garden smoke free and say 30% or 25% of it available for smokers. If it's windy you could select the area so the smoke won't blow from the smoking to the non-smoking area.

    I admire your instinct for compromise, I really do.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    edited August 2024

    It would account for them believing something so incredibly stupid, yes.
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S027858462300009X

    "Growing evidence suggests that the cognitive enhancement effects of nicotine may also contribute to the difficulty of quitting smoking"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    edited August 2024
    Cookie said:

    Are non-smokers happier, when controlled for other relevant factors like wealth?
    I can't point to a study but I'd be amazed if the answer wasn't yes.

    There's a fallacy to be overcome, though, in that many smokers will say things like 'it relaxes me' when the relaxation is actually just the removal of the craving caused by the nicotine addiction. You quell the pangs with a cig, ah bisto!, then the clock restarts and the pangs build again until you light the next one an hour or so later. And on we go. Relax, bit tense, more tense, very tense, relax, bit tense, more tense, very tense, relax ...

    You're using cigs to gain relief from what the cigs themselves are creating.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    Might this lead to Labour's first ministerial resignation?

    "In May this year, @LordPeterHendy pressured my now-former employer @SYSTRA_UKIRL to sack me by threatening them.

    Why did he do this? Because I'd highlighted safety and accessibility issues at Euston station. He is unfit for office and should resign."

    https://x.com/GarethDennis/status/1829036280996315637

    I doubt it, for various reasons. But it's not a good look.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    a



    One of the advantages of air source heat pumps is that you can set them to work as air conditioners. It needs an engineer.

    Currently the gov are not offering grants if you can do both.

    Add solar panels and you have a free to run cooling system. But it requires a bit of faffing about to set it up.
    I think you don’t pay vat on the equipment or install.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    Most smokers want to be non-smokers, suggesting so.

    https://truthinitiative.org/research-resources/quitting-smoking-vaping/quitting-tobacco-facts-and-stats#:~:text=Most smokers — nearly 70% —,make quit attempts each year.
    Most smokers *say* they want to quit when asked.

    That is not quite the same thing.

    An interesting example of how social pressure has changed over time. Even 25 years ago most of the pressure in social terms was the other way. Not least I suspect because the ‘smoking is bad’ message was so ruthlessly pushed in schools.
  • https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S027858462300009X

    "Growing evidence suggests that the cognitive enhancement effects of nicotine may also contribute to the difficulty of quitting smoking"
    That doesn't say that "smoking causes a measurable increase in IQ."

    Can you show any evidence of this "measurable increase" considering its "measurable" or were you talking total shit?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118

    Might this lead to Labour's first ministerial resignation?

    "In May this year, @LordPeterHendy pressured my now-former employer @SYSTRA_UKIRL to sack me by threatening them.

    Why did he do this? Because I'd highlighted safety and accessibility issues at Euston station. He is unfit for office and should resign."

    https://x.com/GarethDennis/status/1829036280996315637

    I doubt it, for various reasons. But it's not a good look.

    I hope Hendy goes. As numerous scandals show, the last thing we want in a minister is a habit for prioritising cover up over honesty and remediation.

    It's a shame, because his appointment was one of those that promised the new government would quickly get on and get things done.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,763
    ydoethur said:

    Most smokers *say* they want to quit when asked.

    That is not quite the same thing.

    An interesting example of how social pressure has changed over time. Even 25 years ago most of the pressure in social terms was the other way. Not least I suspect because the ‘smoking is bad’ message was so ruthlessly pushed in schools.
    And how Public Health interventions can actually work
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,204
    One reason I have opposed all-mail elections is that ballots need not be secret. It's been a while since I regularly searched for stories of vote fraud -- but when I did, I found that it usually was done with mail ballots.

    And they also allow intimidation, especially within a family. So women (and some men) are right to ask whether their spouse (or parents) can know how they voted.

    (Given the different voting systems used in the different states -- and the large differences between men and women in this election, it might be possible to get a rough estimate of intimidation by comparing results between states that have all-mail elections and states that mostly vote in person.)

    For the record: My home state, Washington, has been using all-mail ballots for years now. I don't know of any serious examples of either vote fraud or intimidation, though, of course, both are hard to investigate.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152

    That doesn't say that "smoking causes a measurable increase in IQ."

    Can you show any evidence of this "measurable increase" considering its "measurable" or were you talking total shit?
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02245346

    Nicotine has recently been shown to enhance measures of information processing speed including the decision time (DT) component of simple and choice reaction time and the string length measure of evoked potential waveform complexity. Both (DT and string length) have been previously demonstrated to correlate with performance on standard intelligence tests (IQ). We therefore hypothesised that nicotine is acting to improve intellectual performance on the elementary information processing correlates of IQ. In the current experiment we tested this hypothesis using the Raven Advanced Progressive Matrices (APM) test. APM scores were significantly higher in the smoking session compared to the non-smoking session, suggesting that nicotine acts to enhance physiological processes underlying performance on intellectual tasks.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    Cookie said:

    In all honesty, I thought the gradually-increasing-age-of-legality was quite clever, as it doesn't take away anyone's existing rights.
    I still thought it fundamentally wrong, though - in general, it shouldn't be the business of the state from stopping people making stupid decisions.
    [Disclaimer: I have smoked, what, 5 cigarettes in my life, all as a teenager. From memory, I don't think it's true that there is no upside - they do induce a pleasant buzz. Which is presumably why people disregard the downsides and do it. Didn't seem worth the money to me, but not entirely without upside. I refrained from any further experimentation after finding an unopened pack of B&H in the street, aged about 16, trying one, and finding the thought of ploughing sufficiently discouraging to never bother again. With, I think, some relief.]
    There's no pleasant buzz other than of the sort you get from removing a shoe that's been on too tight for an hour.

    Great news for you anyway that smoking turned you off straightaway and so you didn't get hooked. With me, I'm afraid that wasn't the case. I thought it looked cool - still do tbh - and my first few cigs as a teenager didn't make me cough enough to counteract that.

    Question is, as a lifelong addict does my opinion on this carry a special weight? Is my support for banning smoking the equivalent of the pacifism of the returning soldier? I think perhaps it is.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02245346

    Nicotine has recently been shown to enhance measures of information processing speed including the decision time (DT) component of simple and choice reaction time and the string length measure of evoked potential waveform complexity. Both (DT and string length) have been previously demonstrated to correlate with performance on standard intelligence tests (IQ). We therefore hypothesised that nicotine is acting to improve intellectual performance on the elementary information processing correlates of IQ. In the current experiment we tested this hypothesis using the Raven Advanced Progressive Matrices (APM) test. APM scores were significantly higher in the smoking session compared to the non-smoking session, suggesting that nicotine acts to enhance physiological processes underlying performance on intellectual tasks.
    Alternatively:
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/10/051012231439.htm
    https://www.reuters.com/article/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/are-non-smokers-smarter-than-smokers-idUSTRE61M3UQ/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    I hope Hendy goes. As numerous scandals show, the last thing we want in a minister is a habit for prioritising cover up over honesty and remediation.

    It's a shame, because his appointment was one of those that promised the new government would quickly get on and get things done.
    Yeah. It'll be interesting to hear Hendry's side of the story, but if what Dennis has said is correct, Hendry should go.

    Gareth Dennis is an interesting and knowledgeable chap - I often watch his videos - but he is a *very* political animal. One of the thing that spoils his videos are where he goes somewhat over-the-top (from my perspective) on politics that is, at best, tangential to the topic being discussed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    Eabhal said:

    And how Public Health interventions can actually work
    Possibly.

    It still amuses me 30 years later that at my primary school every child swore after every anti-smoking lesson that they would never, ever smoke.

    Except me.

    Guess who’s the only person in that class who never actually took up smoking…
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    edited August 2024
    kinabalu said:

    There's no pleasant buzz other than of the sort you get from removing a shoe that's been on too tight for an hour.

    Great news for you anyway that smoking turned you off straightaway and so you didn't get hooked. With me, I'm afraid that wasn't the case. I thought it looked cool - still do tbh - and my first few cigs as a teenager didn't make me cough enough to counteract that.

    Question is, as a lifelong addict does my opinion on this carry a special weight? Is my support for banning smoking the equivalent of the pacifism of the returning soldier? I think perhaps it is.
    Anyone who thinks cigarettes give a 'pleasant buzz' beyond the head rush you get when you first try them simply hasn't lived. Nicotine is an utterly pointless drug, and one of the most dangerous. Sir Keir should ban it while legalising ecstasy (...available only over the bar in licensed pubs!)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,203
    edited August 2024
    ydoethur said:

    Possibly.

    It still amuses me 30 years later that at my primary school every child swore after every anti-smoking lesson that they would never, ever smoke.

    Except me.

    Guess who’s the only person in that class who never actually took up smoking…
    Pro tip.

    Do you know what you should do if your partner starts smoking?

    Slow down and/or use lubrication.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    ydoethur said:

    Possibly.

    It still amuses me 30 years later that at my primary school every child swore after every anti-smoking lesson that they would never, ever smoke.

    Except me.

    Guess who’s the only person in that class who never actually took up smoking…
    One of my guilty little secrets, which I'm not proud of:

    I've never smoked, and I've never had a lit cigarette in my mouth. Yet as I looked relatively old for my years at school, I used to go down from school in my civvies to the local shop (often the green shack) to buy cigarettes for other kids. I ended up making a little extra packet money that way.

    The biggest issue was any of the masters seeing me going into the shops, so I often used to buy them in Uttoxeter instead.

    How guilty should I feel about this? ...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296

    Some people say that smoking causes a measurable increase in IQ.
    Well I've puffed about a quarter of a million so I ought to be Einstein by now.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,911
    Andy_JS said:

    "Pensioners required to answer 243 questions to claim winter fuel payments"

    https://news.sky.com/story/money-blog-latest-consumer-13040934

    Ah, adopting the same model budget airlines apply to refunds. Make the process so cumbersome people give up.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296

    One of my guilty little secrets, which I'm not proud of:

    I've never smoked, and I've never had a lit cigarette in my mouth. Yet as I looked relatively old for my years at school, I used to go down from school in my civvies to the local shop (often the green shack) to buy cigarettes for other kids. I ended up making a little extra packet money that way.

    The biggest issue was any of the masters seeing me going into the shops, so I often used to buy them in Uttoxeter instead.

    How guilty should I feel about this? ...
    Extremely. I hope you've lead an exemplary life since in order to make amends.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999
    Just got back in from walking the dog - have we done this?

    Harris 48%, Trump 43% - USA Today/Suffolk University (polling 25/28th - so post Convention).
  • One of my guilty little secrets, which I'm not proud of:

    I've never smoked, and I've never had a lit cigarette in my mouth. Yet as I looked relatively old for my years at school, I used to go down from school in my civvies to the local shop (often the green shack) to buy cigarettes for other kids. I ended up making a little extra packet money that way.

    The biggest issue was any of the masters seeing me going into the shops, so I often used to buy them in Uttoxeter instead.

    How guilty should I feel about this? ...
    Real men smoke cigars.

    I may smoke may one or two a year.

    Cigarettes are for pussies.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999

    Real men smoke cigars.

    I may smoke may one or two a year.

    Cigarettes are for pussies.
    I've seen that show in Bangkok....
  • I've seen that show in Bangkok....
    Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky did a variation of that Bangkok show.

    Nearly put me off cigars.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999

    One of my guilty little secrets, which I'm not proud of:

    I've never smoked, and I've never had a lit cigarette in my mouth. Yet as I looked relatively old for my years at school, I used to go down from school in my civvies to the local shop (often the green shack) to buy cigarettes for other kids. I ended up making a little extra packet money that way.

    The biggest issue was any of the masters seeing me going into the shops, so I often used to buy them in Uttoxeter instead.

    How guilty should I feel about this? ...
    Uttoxeter? Have you no shame??
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470

    Real men smoke cigars.

    I may smoke may one or two a year.

    Cigarettes are for pussies.

    Open the old cigar-box—let me consider anew—
    Old friends, and who is Maggie that I should abandon you?

    A million surplus Maggies are willing to bear the yoke;
    And a woman is only a woman, but a good Cigar is a Smoke.

    Light me another Cuba—I hold to my first-sworn vows.
    If Maggie will have no rival, I’ll have no Maggie for Spouse!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    edited August 2024

    Just got back in from walking the dog - have we done this?

    Harris 48%, Trump 43% - USA Today/Suffolk University (polling 25/28th - so post Convention).

    A national popular vote poll so of interest but not as relevant as the Emerson swing states poll also out today and taken post Convention which has it neck and neck, as it is the EC that will decide the outcome not the national popular vote

    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-election-in-swing-states/
  • Andy_JS said:

    Some people I'd totally forgotten about from the pandemic/lockdowns.

    Dr John Campbell.
    https://www.youtube.com/@Campbellteaching/videos

    @CricketWyvern aka David Paton.
    https://x.com/cricketwyvern

    A quack of the highest order.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,636
    edited August 2024
    kinabalu said:

    There's no pleasant buzz other than of the sort you get from removing a shoe that's been on too tight for an hour.

    Great news for you anyway that smoking turned you off straightaway and so you didn't get hooked. With me, I'm afraid that wasn't the case. I thought it looked cool - still do tbh - and my first few cigs as a teenager didn't make me cough enough to counteract that.

    Question is, as a lifelong addict does my opinion on this carry a special weight? Is my support for banning smoking the equivalent of the pacifism of the returning soldier? I think perhaps it is.
    All of my friends at school smoked.
    And then in sixth form I got a whole new set of friends. Who also took up smoking. Maybe it was my natural contrariness that kept me off smoking, despite it looking cool. (Similarly, I resisted when one by one they all got an ear pierced.)

    I had to make to with the passive coolness caught from hanging round with smokers.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    edited August 2024

    Anyone who thinks cigarettes give a 'pleasant buzz' beyond the head rush you get when you first try them simply hasn't lived. Nicotine is an utterly pointless drug, and one of the most dangerous. Sir Keir should ban it while legalising ecstasy (...available only over the bar in licensed pubs!)
    Yes that rush you get when your system first discovers nicotine doesn't last long. I started at 15 and by the time I went to uni it had reduced to a compulsive periodic crushing of the pangs, no different from a seasoned addict, separated only in time from the old guy in the snug with the rollies and the yellowing beard.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 792
    Nunu5 said:

    They could be women with very conservative husbands who want to vote for Dem because of abortion but don't want their husbands finding out.
    That was my point
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999
    HYUFD said:

    A national popular vote poll so of interest but not as relevant as the Emerson swing states poll also out today and taken post Convention which has it neck and neck, as it is the EC that will decide the outcome not the national popular vote

    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-election-in-swing-states/
    Biden beat Trump by 4.5%.

    Harris ahead by 5% is important.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    I see the Times is loving Austerity Reeves latest Toryism

    "Rachel Reeves has begun slashing billions from education and health spending, ahead of further harsh cuts expected in a "painful" budget."

    Reeves is making cuts that will “really scrape the bone”. She said: "public spending is not sustainable".
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    I see the Times is loving Austerity Reeves latest Toryism

    "Rachel Reeves has begun slashing billions from education and health spending, ahead of further harsh cuts expected in a "painful" budget."

    Reeves is making cuts that will “really scrape the bone”. She said: "public spending is not sustainable".

    Well done SKS fans
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    edited August 2024

    Biden beat Trump by 4.5%.

    Harris ahead by 5% is important.
    Not if that surge is in California, New York, Illinois and Texas not Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin it isn't.

    Plus of course the national polls overestimated Biden's lead in 2020 as they likely are overestimating Harris's lead now.

    The final RCP national poll average in 2020 had Biden 7.2% ahead but his final national lead was only 4.5%

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    HYUFD said:

    Not if that surge is in California, New York, Illinois and Texas not Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin it isn't.

    Plus of course the national polls overestimated Biden's lead in 2020 as they likely are overestimating Harris's lead now.

    The final RCP national poll average in 2020 had Biden 7.2% ahead but his final national lead was only 4.5%

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
    The black Knight returns!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470

    The black Knight returns!
    What is the term a for a Black Knight, Black Knighting another Black Knight?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky did a variation of that Bangkok show.

    Nearly put me off cigars.
    I thought he used the cigar so she wouldn’t bang cock?
This discussion has been closed.