Latest polling has Trump closing. Think back to 2020, Biden well ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan said the polls, come election day a hairs breath win in Wisconsin and only 2% in Michigan. I suggest polls are under estimating Trump support.
"Latest polling has Trump closing." Citation required.
Because:
Latest Fox News polls in the sunbelt (by Interactive Polls): all good news for Harris
Georgia: Harris 50% Trump 48% (Harris by 2% - was Trump leading by 6% in previous poll when Biden) Arizona: Harris 50% Trump 49% (Harris by 1% - was Trump leading by 5%) Nevada: Harris 50% Trump 48% (Harris by 2% - was Trump leading by 5%) North Carolina: Harris 49% Trump 50% Trump by 1% - (was Trump leading by 5%)
Indeed. There is a body of opinion on PB that likes to ramp Trump regardless of the numbers. I mean, Trump might well win, but unsubstantiated comments are common, and unhelpful for those of us that actually bet on outcomes.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
As a PB thickie I just trying to understand what you meant by a 'disaffected, marginalised community'. The first person on a list of those convicted after January 6th is a guy called Henry Tarrio - a one-time chairman of the Proud Boys.
This is what Wikipedia has to say:
"In 2004, when he was 20 years old, Tarrio was convicted of theft. He was sentenced to community service and three years of probation and was ordered to pay restitution. After 2004, Tarrio relocated to a small town in North Florida to run a poultry farm. He later returned to Miami. He has also founded a security equipment installation firm and another firm providing GPS tracking for companies.
In 2012, Tarrio was indicted for his role in a scheme to rebrand and resell stolen diabetic test strips. After being charged, Tarrio cooperated with investigators, helping them prosecute more than a dozen others. In 2013, Tarrio was sentenced to 30 months (of which he served 16) in federal prison.
Between 2012 and 2014 Tarrio was an informant to both federal and local law enforcement; in a 2014 federal court hearing, Tarrio's lawyer said that Tarrio had been a "prolific" cooperator who had assisted the government in the investigation and prosecution of more than twelve people in cases involving anabolic steroids, gambling, and human smuggling; had helped identify three "grow houses" where marijuana was cultivated; and had repeatedly worked undercover to aid in investigations. Tarrio denied working undercover or cooperating with prosecutions, but the court transcript contradicted the denial, and the former federal prosecutor in the proceeding against Tarrio confirmed that he cooperated. Tarrio's role as an informant was first made public in January 2021, after Reuters obtained the court records and interviewed investigators and lawyers involved in the case."
I suppose failed criminals turned informants are members of a 'disaffected, marginalised community' so you're right.
He’s the American version of Tommy Robinson. No-one in the UK would blame the Tories if they held a rally where they called for a peaceful protest, but a few Tommys turned up and started a fight.
Some people on here seem to have lost all connection with reality.
OK, as a thought experiment, imagine the Jan 6th rioters had somehow succeeded in preventing the certification of Biden as president. Would Trump have taken that, declared martial law and stayed in the White House? Of course he would. Sunak would have never had done the equivalent.
Those who are minimising the danger of Trump and are dismissing the 1930s might like to consider a question. If Trump is president, what % chance would you put on the USA meeting NATO treaty obligations if Russia walked into (for example) Estonia? Would it be significantly below 100%?
Russia isn't walking into anywhere except Ukrainian shit pits at the rate of one village every six months so it's a risible question but I wouldn't rate the chances of Harris or Starmer committing to WW3 over fucking Tallinn at 100% either.
Russia has had at least to strands of territorial expansion: political and military. They try to interfere politically with neighbouring countries, and if that does not work, they go for more militant actions. It's perfectly possible (though unlikely) that they get (say) Hungary so on-side that Russian troops are sent in to 'protect' Hungarians. In the same way Russian troops were in Belarus.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
They really weren't doing that. They were marching on the Capitol and found themselves inside, much to their bemusement.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
Fairly sure the people that were macing and beating with fire extinguishers the cops that were standing between them and the Capitol wanted to be inside it.
Yes absolutely but the clue is in your post. "The cops were standing between them and the Capitol".
The full power of the state seemed a bit shit at stopping a bunch of no-hopers confused about their aims in that case.
No disagreement from me but they were there to do just that.
Anyway since Otis was mentioned, dad has released a new track after a long hiatus. Will have to listen to it a few more times before deciding if it’s Bryan being a self indulgent old silly or the master returning to form, but not terrible at first take.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
They really weren't doing that. They were marching on the Capitol and found themselves inside, much to their bemusement.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
"Found themselves inside" is a far-right variation on "resting in my account".
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
christ you're gullible.
I don't think it's him that is gullible, whether he existed or not, but certainly his followers, in particular those who believe the risen from the dead thing, most certainly are.
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
They really weren't doing that. They were marching on the Capitol and found themselves inside, much to their bemusement.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
"Found themselves inside" is a far-right variation on "resting in my account".
The documentary is really very good on this. Recommended viewing.
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
-AI images of his perceived enemies in orange jumpsuits -Calls for the indictment of the members of the J6 Select Committee -A call for the arrest of Jack Smith -A call for public military tribunals for President Obama/others https://x.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1828875846209437870
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Nate Silver's adjustment for a post-convention bounce puts the result on a knife-edge.
That seems very plausible to me. The state polling also looks a lot tighter than the national polling, and RFK dropping out does seem to have helped Trump.
A lot of wishful thinking in evidence.
Some might argue that the "wishful thinking" is quite the other way!!
Obvs there are always partisans being overly optimistic on both sides, but one of the attractions of this place has always been that the discipline imposed by gambling money encourages people to take a more dispassionate view, which is what I certainly try to do.
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
On topic: "Harris surge". I hope so but I won't be banking it until it does show in the polls. I think Harris is tracking to win comfortably and what I need for that view to be more than my big picture intuition (much faith as I have in that spooky commodity) is for her to pull out a solid national poll lead of 5 to 7 pts. This is what I want to see before the end of Sept. C'mon you polls.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
-AI images of his perceived enemies in orange jumpsuits -Calls for the indictment of the members of the J6 Select Committee -A call for the arrest of Jack Smith -A call for public military tribunals for President Obama/others https://x.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1828875846209437870
Topping is sure he's just kidding.
You really do take your world view from twitter, don't you, whether it's the US election campaign or aerial combat in Ukraine. Not being funny, but it might be best if you try to find alternative sources of information.
On matters less controversial for PB what on earth do you do with the pound coins you might receive or have accumulated for one reason or another. Effectively dead money unless you make a concerted effort to use them all at once.
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
-AI images of his perceived enemies in orange jumpsuits -Calls for the indictment of the members of the J6 Select Committee -A call for the arrest of Jack Smith -A call for public military tribunals for President Obama/others https://x.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1828875846209437870
Topping is sure he's just kidding.
One thing you can say about Trump is that unlike other politicians, you know he does his own social media...
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
RCP doesn't report all the polls. Harris is leading nationally by 3.6% on 538, and by 1.6% in Pennsylvania, which gives her an EC lead.
I raised this query a couple of days ago. Does anyone know why it has Trump ahead in PA?
(Would seem to make no sense, based on the recent polling)
This most recent polling? (From the Silver Bulletin)
Nothing there post-Convention...
Indeed – and it's also an extremely selective screenshot! See the actual link I posted above. @LostPassword seems to have his own agenda on this topic!!
-AI images of his perceived enemies in orange jumpsuits -Calls for the indictment of the members of the J6 Select Committee -A call for the arrest of Jack Smith -A call for public military tribunals for President Obama/others https://x.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1828875846209437870
Topping is sure he's just kidding.
You really do take your world view from twitter, don't you, whether it's the US election campaign or aerial combat in Ukraine. Not being funny, but it might be best if you try to find alternative sources of information.
I just checked and Trump has indeed posted (edit or reposted) that. Nigel's sources are good.
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
Latest polling has Trump closing. Think back to 2020, Biden well ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan said the polls, come election day a hairs breath win in Wisconsin and only 2% in Michigan. I suggest polls are under estimating Trump support.
Latest poll is Big Village 23-28 August sample size 1,511, of Likely Voters. Harris 50% Trump 43% Not closing.
National polling isn't what matters though.
The Economist has Harris ahead in the crucial state of Pennsylvania — by just 1%.
-AI images of his perceived enemies in orange jumpsuits -Calls for the indictment of the members of the J6 Select Committee -A call for the arrest of Jack Smith -A call for public military tribunals for President Obama/others https://x.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1828875846209437870
Topping is sure he's just kidding.
You really do take your world view from twitter, don't you, whether it's the US election campaign or aerial combat in Ukraine. Not being funny, but it might be best if you try to find alternative sources of information.
You don't believe that Trump posts stuff ? Or that when he does it has no significance at all ?
Not being funny, but if you dismiss entirely what politicians say for themselves, then you're a fool.
Latest polling has Trump closing. Think back to 2020, Biden well ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan said the polls, come election day a hairs breath win in Wisconsin and only 2% in Michigan. I suggest polls are under estimating Trump support.
Latest poll is Big Village 23-28 August sample size 1,511, of Likely Voters. Harris 50% Trump 43% Not closing.
National polling isn't what matters though.
The Economist has Harris ahead in the crucial state of Pennsylvania — by just 1%.
-AI images of his perceived enemies in orange jumpsuits -Calls for the indictment of the members of the J6 Select Committee -A call for the arrest of Jack Smith -A call for public military tribunals for President Obama/others https://x.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1828875846209437870
Topping is sure he's just kidding.
You really do take your world view from twitter, don't you, whether it's the US election campaign or aerial combat in Ukraine. Not being funny, but it might be best if you try to find alternative sources of information.
I just checked and Trump has indeed posted (edit or reposted) that. Nigel's sources are good.
-AI images of his perceived enemies in orange jumpsuits -Calls for the indictment of the members of the J6 Select Committee -A call for the arrest of Jack Smith -A call for public military tribunals for President Obama/others https://x.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1828875846209437870
Topping is sure he's just kidding.
You really do take your world view from twitter, don't you, whether it's the US election campaign or aerial combat in Ukraine. Not being funny, but it might be best if you try to find alternative sources of information.
You don't believe that Trump posts stuff ? Or that when he does it has no significance at all ?
Not being funny, but if you dismiss entirely what politicians say for themselves, then you're a fool.
You're new at this political analysis game, aren't you.
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
Latest polling has Trump closing. Think back to 2020, Biden well ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan said the polls, come election day a hairs breath win in Wisconsin and only 2% in Michigan. I suggest polls are under estimating Trump support.
Latest poll is Big Village 23-28 August sample size 1,511, of Likely Voters. Harris 50% Trump 43% Not closing.
National polling isn't what matters though.
The Economist has Harris ahead in the crucial state of Pennsylvania — by just 1%.
Pennsylvania is the single most important state in this election.
As with Florida in 2000, pretty much all routes to 270 go through that state. The polling seems to be predicting a result almost as close, likely to be 1% either way.
I've no doubt that the Hoover Institution is a filthy right wing, pro-Trump rag and also some of the issues it describes no longer apply or have changed.
But this is one (of many similar) articles which explains for the bewildered PB/Graun crowd why Trump won in 2016.
From what I've seen of Trump he is hugely entertaining in a laugh at not with kind of way but I don't think he threatens modern democracy. He will or will not be elected via a democratic system which I don't think is at risk.
I don't think it matters too much who is POTUS unless you are a US taxpayer or, during the Obama years, lived in the middle east and didn't have a bomb shelter.
But I do find it funny how triggered people on PB and the left in general are about him. Way beyond their betting books.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
Latest polling has Trump closing. Think back to 2020, Biden well ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan said the polls, come election day a hairs breath win in Wisconsin and only 2% in Michigan. I suggest polls are under estimating Trump support.
Latest poll is Big Village 23-28 August sample size 1,511, of Likely Voters. Harris 50% Trump 43% Not closing.
National polling isn't what matters though.
The Economist has Harris ahead in the crucial state of Pennsylvania — by just 1%.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
RCP doesn't report all the polls. Harris is leading nationally by 3.6% on 538, and by 1.6% in Pennsylvania, which gives her an EC lead.
I raised this query a couple of days ago. Does anyone know why it has Trump ahead in PA?
(Would seem to make no sense, based on the recent polling)
This most recent polling? (From the Silver Bulletin)
Nothing there post-Convention...
Indeed – and it's also an extremely selective screenshot! See the actual link I posted above. @LostPassword seems to have his own agenda on this topic!!
My only agenda is accuracy.
The screenshot I posted is of the latest polls on the Silver Bulletin.
You, apparently, didn't look at the data in the link you posted, only the pretty picture.
So they’re saying drop the 5p cut because in their view the retailers didn’t pass it on in pump prices.
Do they expect retailers to not pass on a 5p rise in tax?
Obviously their spokesperson never studied economics.
Two things the government can do. One is to reduce rents on motorway service stations, and the other is to throw more of the contents of the arsenal towards Ukraine. For a specifically Labour thing to do, call in the supermarkets for an investigation into fuel prices.
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
They really weren't doing that. They were marching on the Capitol and found themselves inside, much to their bemusement.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
Fairly sure the people that were macing and beating with fire extinguishers the cops that were standing between them and the Capitol wanted to be inside it.
They were just in a hurry to get to the Jamiroquai performance....
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
So they’re saying drop the 5p cut because in their view the retailers didn’t pass it on in pump prices.
Do they expect retailers to not pass on a 5p rise in tax?
Obviously their spokesperson never studied economics.
Two things the government can do. One is to reduce rents on motorway service stations, and the other is to throw more of the contents of the arsenal towards Ukraine. For a specifically Labour thing to do, call in the supermarkets for an investigation into fuel prices.
Yes, it does seem rather naive. The CMA reports on this are punchy, good evidence that there is rocket and feather pricing going on from fuel retailers, using duty cuts to cover their backs.
This does give the government cover to raise duty though - in real terms it's at lowest level since 1993.
On matters less controversial for PB what on earth do you do with the pound coins you might receive or have accumulated for one reason or another. Effectively dead money unless you make a concerted effort to use them all at once.
I'm sure the many weirdo cash-fetishists on here will buy them off you for £1 in proper electronic money (if they can work out how to use a banking app, which admittedly is very doubtful!)
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
I've no doubt that the Hoover Institution is a filthy right wing, pro-Trump rag and also some of the issues it describes no longer apply or have changed.
But this is one (of many similar) articles which explains for the bewildered PB/Graun crowd why Trump won in 2016.
From what I've seen of Trump he is hugely entertaining in a laugh at not with kind of way but I don't think he threatens modern democracy. He will or will not be elected via a democratic system which I don't think is at risk.
I don't think it matters too much who is POTUS unless you are a US taxpayer or, during the Obama years, lived in the middle east and didn't have a bomb shelter.
But I do find it funny how triggered people on PB and the left in general are about him. Way beyond their betting books.
There is a tendency on here (and in and some non-Leftie and Leftie circles) for Trump Doom Porn, which many PBers are addicted to. Fine. Whatever floats your boat. But posting their unsubstantiated claims on here is unhelpful as a source of political analysis.
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
RCP doesn't report all the polls. Harris is leading nationally by 3.6% on 538, and by 1.6% in Pennsylvania, which gives her an EC lead.
I raised this query a couple of days ago. Does anyone know why it has Trump ahead in PA?
(Would seem to make no sense, based on the recent polling)
This most recent polling? (From the Silver Bulletin)
Nothing there post-Convention...
Indeed – and it's also an extremely selective screenshot! See the actual link I posted above. @LostPassword seems to have his own agenda on this topic!!
My only agenda is accuracy.
The screenshot I posted is of the latest polls on the Silver Bulletin.
You, apparently, didn't look at the data in the link you posted, only the pretty picture.
Nope, you haven't looked properly. Or are being deliberately obtuse. It's hard to decide which...
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
This outside smoking ban will finish the pub trade off finally.
For once I find I am agreeing with Farage.
Labour seemed determined to destroy their poll lead as fast as possible it seems to me.
The next thing will probably be an American-style ban on drinking in most public spaces. As it happens I don't smoke or drink but I hate this type of nannyism because it'll eventually spread to something that you or me like doing.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
Did you even look at your link? Harris is behind in two of the three most recent polls.
Always good to stop at precisely the 3 most recent polls, I find, when trying to get a feel for the average.
The third most recent has fieldwork dates more than a week old, so it struggles to be most recent itself.
How would a poll from a fortnight ago be described as "recent"?
The question was why is RCP showing Trump ahead in PA when other averages have Harris ahead. Part of the reason is that the RCP includes fewer polls (and they include polls going back more than a month, so RCP is not following your advice of not counting polls more than a week old).
I think to make a polling average you need to have at least 5 polls as a very minimum, if there aren't that many polls done in the last week then of course your average should include slightly older polls. And when the election is over 2 months away a poll from 2 weeks ago still counts as recent, unless there is a more recent poll from the same pollster.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
christ you're gullible.
I don't think it's him that is gullible, whether he existed or not, but certainly his followers, in particular those who believe the risen from the dead thing, most certainly are.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
Did you even look at your link? Harris is behind in two of the three most recent polls.
If you press the switch to make it ordered by date surveyed, not date added, you'll see that Harris is ahead in two of the last three polls by date surveyed
On matters less controversial for PB what on earth do you do with the pound coins you might receive or have accumulated for one reason or another. Effectively dead money unless you make a concerted effort to use them all at once.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
Did you even look at your link? Harris is behind in two of the three most recent polls.
Did you look at the link? LOL.
Yes, which is why I can see that Harris is behind in the SoCal Strategies and Insider Advantage polls, and ahead in the smaller sample poll from ActiVote.
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
The encouragement of the armed insurrection that nearly led to the lynching of his Vice President for starters.
He waited hours to respond.
That’s for starters.
Weak. It wasn't an armed insurrection. It was a bunch of no-hopers (there's a clue in there) protesting against government. Pretty inefficiently and badly managed by the security forces. None of them expected to find themselves indoors that day.
Just like Otis Ferry storming the HoC but more American.
How many people died or were injured when Otis Ferry and his friends invaded the Commons?
It's America ffs. How many people die or are injured in a normal day in Ohio vs Hartlepool.
I am sure you would have excused the Beer Hall Putsch.
It was political expression (as were the 2011 riots, as were the Hartlepool riots) of a disaffected, marginalised community.
The last place I would expect that concept to be understood is on PB and the last people I would expect to understand it are well paid lawyers working in the financial services industry in the UK who were bought houses by their parents at an early age.
Fake news, they merely paid for the deposit, I paid the rest.
Anyhoo, there’s a universality that should exist among everybody that you do not use violence to overturn democratic elections.
They really weren't doing that. They were marching on the Capitol and found themselves inside, much to their bemusement.
And, please note all those making 1930s comparisons, the full power of the state was ranged against them.
"Found themselves inside" is a far-right variation on "resting in my account".
Bit like the chap who found himself sitting on a running, stolen motorcycle outside a jewellers shop. When the alarms went off...
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
"We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality"
No we don't, but if you have evidence of this I'd be very happy to see it.
Also feel free to calculate a polling average excluding "GOP push polling", I doubt it will be any different to most of the established polling averages from Silver Bulletin, 538 etc.
You can argue, as the header does, that there are reasons to believe the polling might be underestimating Harris's lead. OTOH you can look at the last 2 times Trump was on the ballot and question whether pollsters have done enough to fix whatever went wrong with their polling in 2016 and 2020 - especially in critical states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
eg for 2020 comparing the final 538 polling average with the actual result:
Wisconsin 538 average: Biden +8.4%, result Biden +0.6%
Although, for balance, we should also look at 2022 polling versus actual results. Because my memory is that the Democrats outperformed then. (My memory could, of course, be wrong.)
Are you are suggesting that posh people shouldn't be investigated after an allegation has been made? Is it possible to determine whether an allegation is vexatious without an investigation? The fact that even vexatious claims remain on the books is a different issue.
So who are the snowflakes? The complainer or the complainant?
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
Did you even look at your link? Harris is behind in two of the three most recent polls.
If you press the switch to make it ordered by date surveyed, not date added, you'll see that Harris is ahead in two of the last three polls by date surveyed
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
RCP doesn't report all the polls. Harris is leading nationally by 3.6% on 538, and by 1.6% in Pennsylvania, which gives her an EC lead.
I raised this query a couple of days ago. Does anyone know why it has Trump ahead in PA?
(Would seem to make no sense, based on the recent polling)
This most recent polling? (From the Silver Bulletin)
Nothing there post-Convention...
Indeed – and it's also an extremely selective screenshot! See the actual link I posted above. @LostPassword seems to have his own agenda on this topic!!
My only agenda is accuracy.
The screenshot I posted is of the latest polls on the Silver Bulletin.
You, apparently, didn't look at the data in the link you posted, only the pretty picture.
Nope, you haven't looked properly. Or are being deliberately obtuse. It's hard to decide which...
On matters less controversial for PB what on earth do you do with the pound coins you might receive or have accumulated for one reason or another. Effectively dead money unless you make a concerted effort to use them all at once.
i have a thing called a bank account that I use
What kind of a faff would it be to try to deposit some coins into a bank account. Aren't they all Costa Coffees now anyway.
Of course, organisations like Oxfam, would be beneficiaries of new wealth taxes given they would receive further state handouts to do the work they do. Same goes for many of the organisations advocating wealth taxes.
"reduce inequality, tackle poverty and build a fairer, more caring, and greener future"
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Though you shouldn't forget what happened to Clinton, who had a double digit led in the polls in October 2016.
I think any result between a Harris landslide and a narrow Trump win is just about possible - though I have quite a lot of money on Harris winning.
I think it's possible that Trump wins the Sunbelt and the Rustbelt. It's also possible that Harris does. And it is further possible that they split them.
I tend to agree with you that Harris probably has more room to outperform expectations, but - voter registration numbers apart - the polls do not currently support such an outcome.
So they’re saying drop the 5p cut because in their view the retailers didn’t pass it on in pump prices.
Do they expect retailers to not pass on a 5p rise in tax?
Obviously their spokesperson never studied economics.
Two things the government can do. One is to reduce rents on motorway service stations, and the other is to throw more of the contents of the arsenal towards Ukraine. For a specifically Labour thing to do, call in the supermarkets for an investigation into fuel prices.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
Did you even look at your link? Harris is behind in two of the three most recent polls.
Always good to stop at precisely the 3 most recent polls, I find, when trying to get a feel for the average.
The third most recent has fieldwork dates more than a week old, so it struggles to be most recent itself.
How would a poll from a fortnight ago be described as "recent"?
The question was why is RCP showing Trump ahead in PA when other averages have Harris ahead. Part of the reason is that the RCP includes fewer polls (and they include polls going back more than a month, so RCP is not following your advice of not counting polls more than a week old).
I think to make a polling average you need to have at least 5 polls as a very minimum, if there aren't that many polls done in the last week then of course your average should include slightly older polls. And when the election is over 2 months away a poll from 2 weeks ago still counts as recent, unless there is a more recent poll from the same pollster.
I'm not here to defend the RCP polling average, but the statement that it's impossible to see why it has Trump ahead from the most recent polls doesn't actually in fact match what I see in the most recent polls, as shown by both 538 and the Silver Bulletin.
I have more faith in their methodology for constructing a polling average than in RCP, but Harris isn't so far ahead that it's impossible for a polling average to show her behind in PA.
Are you are suggesting that posh people shouldn't be investigated after an allegation has been made? Is it possible to determine whether an allegation is vexatious without an investigation? The fact that even vexatious claims remain on the books is a different issue.
So who are the snowflakes? The complainer or the complainant?
The fact that vexatious allegations remain on the books is the issue.
At a garden party, a while back, I was talking the Home Sec, briefly.
I mentioned my solution to the issue of the deliberate destruction of records in Rotherham - to place those responsible for the destruction on the offenders registers. The horror from the civil servant at the Home Sec's elbow was entertaining - "but these are public servants... serious people... this would ruin their lives".
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
Encouraged a bout of violent 'sightseeing' at the seat of government when he lost?
I have no doubt he wanted people to get out on the streets. I don't think anyone, least of all those who participated, expected it to get so far out of hand.
I agree the armed insurrection stuff is weak sauce.
The fake electors, on the other hand, was deliberate policy to overturn a democratic election.
Not sure about that, I paid £1.339 at Costco for premium diesel this morning which is the lowest it's been in a while. I think if 5p is stuck on they'd have to up it to £1.389 - that said £1.389 is still lower than it's been previously so if the Gov'ts going to do it better to do it now rather than when it's at say £1.50 or whatever.
Of course it'll have the unfortunate effect of raising inflation slightly for everyone as the retailers taking the piss with prices (Everyone bar Costco tbh) will doubtless just slap 5p on even though they have increased profits when it was reduced !
On matters less controversial for PB what on earth do you do with the pound coins you might receive or have accumulated for one reason or another. Effectively dead money unless you make a concerted effort to use them all at once.
I'll take any you don't want.
In my case, they get presented among with other coinage and the occasional note to pay for my purchases at locations such as my local chip shop (they have a card machine, but it takes a year and a day to process if the signal is naff like it is half the time), or sandwich shop (card machine is more reliable, but talking to the owner it works out cheaper for them to handle cash than pay the merchant fees - lots of fairly small transactions make "per transaction" card fees add up quickly).
My posts have gone upside down with the latest at the bottom. Weird, as JD Vance would say, weirdly.
Edit, and this one has gone to the top. Is this PB or confused.com?
Vanilla has done one of its unannounced 'upgrades'.
Robert is trying to reverse the 'upgrade'.
Mindboggling that the default setting is to put comments at the bottom.
New-at-the-bottom has been traditional for flat forums for decades.
I much prefer new at the bottom. It's like reading a book. New at the top is like reading a book backwards.
In general I agree, but traditionally forums have also provided paging and/or some other way to immediately go to the most recent comments. The Vanilla view embedded in the PB website has neither, so if you want to see what's been posted since you last looked at the thread half an hour ago (or five minutes ago) it's currently a long process of scrolling down and hitting 'more comments' and scrolling down and hitting 'more comments' again and again and again...
On matters less controversial for PB what on earth do you do with the pound coins you might receive or have accumulated for one reason or another. Effectively dead money unless you make a concerted effort to use them all at once.
i have a thing called a bank account that I use
What kind of a faff would it be to try to deposit some coins into a bank account. Aren't they all Costa Coffees now anyway.
Go to the seaside for the day. Put them in the pokies - and the 2p's into the coin pushers. Hours of fun.
On matters less controversial for PB what on earth do you do with the pound coins you might receive or have accumulated for one reason or another. Effectively dead money unless you make a concerted effort to use them all at once.
i have a thing called a bank account that I use
What kind of a faff would it be to try to deposit some coins into a bank account. Aren't they all Costa Coffees now anyway.
Yes, most bank branches have closed because very few people need them or use them. See also the rise of online-only banks who don't have to spend millions a year running high-street premises so very weird PBers can throw pound coins at them over the counter.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
Did you even look at your link? Harris is behind in two of the three most recent polls.
If you press the switch to make it ordered by date surveyed, not date added, you'll see that Harris is ahead in two of the last three polls by date surveyed
Not so.
Hmm.
I looked again and the picture was obscured by the addition of four SoCalStrategies, two of which had Biden on the poll.
Starmer seems to confirm the reports they’re looking at tightening the smoking ban.
Is anyone else getting increasingly bemused that, despite the state of the country, the government is deciding to spend its hard-won political capital on issues like this?
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Though you shouldn't forget what happened to Clinton, who had a double digit led in the polls in October 2016.
I think any result between a Harris landslide and a narrow Trump win is just about possible - though I have quite a lot of money on Harris winning.
I think it's possible that Trump wins the Sunbelt and the Rustbelt. It's also possible that Harris does. And it is further possible that they split them.
I tend to agree with you that Harris probably has more room to outperform expectations, but - voter registration numbers apart - the polls do not currently support such an outcome.
No, they don't. But Trump, I think, has a fairly hard ceiling. I don't think Harris does to the same extent. A landslide is pretty unlikely, but far more unlikely for Trump.
As it's a JD Vance thread, here's TwitterX on town name pronunciations in Ohio.
There’s a town in Ohio called “Versailles” and it’s pronounced by the locals, and all Ohioans, as “Ver-sails” and if you try to pronounce it like you should (with the French accent), people look at you like you’re crazy. https://x.com/EudaimoniaEsq/status/1828560881808220191
We're definitely inside the glasshouse on this one.
Consider yourself lucky you don't have to explain why Hednesford and Blithefield are pronounced Hensford and Bliffeld.
I spent my teenage years in Cradley (Herefordshire) pronounced Cradley. Sometimes I work in Cradley ( Dudley MBC) pronounced craydley.
Near where I live is a hamlet called Broughton (pronounced brufton) not to be confused with Broughton ( ex- Clwyd) pronounced brawton.
Just wait for the confusion when PBers discover Welsh place names.
I'm sure @Big_G_NorthWales can tell us all how to pronounce "Ffynnongroew", since it is on the way to .a. aiui ... Clan-did-know. We used to say Fif-un-grew.
I used to go through it 2 or 3 times a year, since my grandparents retired from Sheffield to Prestatyn Beach Road, near the Pink Hotel, which became the Yellow Hotel, and is now the Beige Hotel.
Starmer seems to confirm the reports they’re looking at tightening the smoking ban.
Is anyone else getting increasingly bemused that, despite the state of the country, the government is deciding to spend its hard-won political capital on issues like this?
1) We must do something 2) This is something 3) Therefore we must do this
Starmer seems to confirm the reports they’re looking at tightening the smoking ban.
Is anyone else getting increasingly bemused that, despite the state of the country, the government is deciding to spend its hard-won political capital on issues like this?
As one who doesn't follow the intricacies US elections (tip: one of them is going to win), but doesn't like the PB Guardian-adjacent bien pensant dismissal of Trump supporters, can I ask those who know (ie you lot) what Trump would do in office that would be "frankly very scary" and what he did last time that was "frankly very scary".
Encouraged a bout of violent 'sightseeing' at the seat of government when he lost?
I have no doubt he wanted people to get out on the streets. I don't think anyone, least of all those who participated, expected it to get so far out of hand.
I agree the armed insurrection stuff is weak sauce.
The fake electors, on the other hand, was deliberate policy to overturn a democratic election.
Carrying a noose, assaulting guards, smashing up the Capitol building threatening a Republican VP with lynching.
Nothing to see here, just a normal day in MAGA land.
On matters less controversial for PB what on earth do you do with the pound coins you might receive or have accumulated for one reason or another. Effectively dead money unless you make a concerted effort to use them all at once.
i have a thing called a bank account that I use
What kind of a faff would it be to try to deposit some coins into a bank account. Aren't they all Costa Coffees now anyway.
minimal tbh - i just stick it in the coin sorter thingy and it credits my account. No need to even speak to a fellow human being if you're feeling grumpy
Starmer seems to confirm the reports they’re looking at tightening the smoking ban.
Is anyone else getting increasingly bemused that, despite the state of the country, the government is deciding to spend its hard-won political capital on issues like this?
It's not going to affect me any which way, being a non smoker who doesn't currently frequent pub gardens but there's a distinct touch of authoritarianism & puritanism about the new Gov't (Not that the previous one were brilliant) wafting through the air.
I must admit that my reaction to the headline was "No Shit".
We know that the push polling, especially on the GOP side, is muddying the waters and giving far more evenly matched results than the probable reality, so the polls showing a tight race or a Trump lead are not necessarily reliable. We know that the ghost of Roe v Wade is haunting the Republican campaign. We know that as a result Harris has attracted large numbers of female votes to the Blue column. We know that she has fired up the base to a dramatic degree and the convention, far from being a 1968 disaster, was a total triumph. We know that Harris is raising historically large amounts of money very quickly. We know that Harris has made a good VP pick and that Trump... hasn´t. We know that Trump has never won the popular vote. Trump is still trying to win the 2020 fight, but the style is just looking tired and dated, as is he.
Yet the fear of 2016, like the fear of 2019 in the recent UK general election, is leading people to fear that Trump can still snatch a victory. I think even with all the corruption and malpractice that the convicted felon can orchestrate it will not be enough to overcome a very large vote for Harris. I think she could be headed for a landslide,
It’s just becoming more and more obvious, isn’t it? The notion that it’s going to be ‘on a knife-edge’ is increasingly ridiculous.
Harris leads by 1.7% on average with RCP, closer than 2016 and 2020 and Trump leads by 287 to 251 in the EC on their average
Did you even look at your link? Harris is behind in two of the three most recent polls.
Always good to stop at precisely the 3 most recent polls, I find, when trying to get a feel for the average.
The third most recent has fieldwork dates more than a week old, so it struggles to be most recent itself.
How would a poll from a fortnight ago be described as "recent"?
The question was why is RCP showing Trump ahead in PA when other averages have Harris ahead. Part of the reason is that the RCP includes fewer polls (and they include polls going back more than a month, so RCP is not following your advice of not counting polls more than a week old).
I think to make a polling average you need to have at least 5 polls as a very minimum, if there aren't that many polls done in the last week then of course your average should include slightly older polls. And when the election is over 2 months away a poll from 2 weeks ago still counts as recent, unless there is a more recent poll from the same pollster.
I'm not here to defend the RCP polling average, but the statement that it's impossible to see why it has Trump ahead from the most recent polls doesn't actually in fact match what I see in the most recent polls, as shown by both 538 and the Silver Bulletin.
I have more faith in their methodology for constructing a polling average than in RCP, but Harris isn't so far ahead that it's impossible for a polling average to show her behind in PA.
PA is something of an outlier in the rust belt because of the importance of fracking to its economy. And while production is at an all time high under Biden/Harris, they're suspicious of her earlier outspoken opposition to the industry.
Comments
https://youtu.be/TnGTTOJvAz4?si=GghGcGOPhPAAZ1O5
(From the Silver Bulletin)
- Gloucester, pronounced Gloster
- Leicester, pronounced Lester
- Alnwick, pronounced Annick
- Chiswick, pronounced Chisick
- Ulgham pronounced Uffham
- Happisburgh pronounced Haysburra
etc etc etc etc
We're definitely inside the glasshouse on this one.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0010tff
-AI images of his perceived enemies in orange jumpsuits
-Calls for the indictment of the members of the J6 Select Committee
-A call for the arrest of Jack Smith
-A call for public military tribunals for President Obama/others
https://x.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1828875846209437870
Topping is sure he's just kidding.
Near where I live is a hamlet called Broughton (pronounced brufton) not to be confused with Broughton ( ex- Clwyd) pronounced brawton.
Just wait for the confusion when PBers discover Welsh place names.
The Economist has Harris ahead in the crucial state of Pennsylvania — by just 1%.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president/pennsylvania/
Or that when he does it has no significance at all ?
Not being funny, but if you dismiss entirely what politicians say for themselves, then you're a fool.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1829031112443596887
BBC News - Fuel duty: Get rid of 5p cut, RAC tells chancellor - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2nrneym82o
As with Florida in 2000, pretty much all routes to 270 go through that state. The polling seems to be predicting a result almost as close, likely to be 1% either way.
But this is one (of many similar) articles which explains for the bewildered PB/Graun crowd why Trump won in 2016.
https://www.hoover.org/research/why-trump-won
From what I've seen of Trump he is hugely entertaining in a laugh at not with kind of way but I don't think he threatens modern democracy. He will or will not be elected via a democratic system which I don't think is at risk.
I don't think it matters too much who is POTUS unless you are a US taxpayer or, during the Obama years, lived in the middle east and didn't have a bomb shelter.
But I do find it funny how triggered people on PB and the left in general are about him. Way beyond their betting books.
How would a poll from a fortnight ago be described as "recent"?
The screenshot I posted is of the latest polls on the Silver Bulletin.
You, apparently, didn't look at the data in the link you posted, only the pretty picture.
Do they expect retailers to not pass on a 5p rise in tax?
Obviously their spokesperson never studied economics.
Two things the government can do. One is to reduce rents on motorway service stations, and the other is to throw more of the contents of the arsenal towards Ukraine. For a specifically Labour thing to do, call in the supermarkets for an investigation into fuel prices.
For once I find I am agreeing with Farage.
Labour seemed determined to destroy their poll lead as fast as possible it seems to me.
"Russian authorities are reportedly highly concerned about losing the entire facility."
I'm very sad about all the noxious fumes emitted. Obviously. Oh dear.
This does give the government cover to raise duty though - in real terms it's at lowest level since 1993.
New at the top is like reading a book backwards.
The AI videos can can be made with the new tools are scarily accurate at portraying known people. Or seriously scary, depending on your point of view.
A lighthearted view of just how bad it could get.
https://x.com/thedorbrothers/status/1828813560878637165
Sadly if you are right my quip doesn't work.
Mrs Fogle empathises with plight of TV presenter Kirstie Allsopp, who was investigated by council for letting her teenage son travel Europe"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/28/ben-fogle-wife-family-reported-social-services-shouting/
I think to make a polling average you need to have at least 5 polls as a very minimum, if there aren't that many polls done in the last week then of course your average should include slightly older polls. And when the election is over 2 months away a poll from 2 weeks ago still counts as recent, unless there is a more recent poll from the same pollster.
So who are the snowflakes? The complainer or the complainant?
"reduce inequality, tackle poverty and build a fairer, more caring, and greener future"
Ker-ching for the NGO's and Charity sector.
I tend to agree with you that Harris probably has more room to outperform expectations, but - voter registration numbers apart - the polls do not currently support such an outcome.
I have more faith in their methodology for constructing a polling average than in RCP, but Harris isn't so far ahead that it's impossible for a polling average to show her behind in PA.
At a garden party, a while back, I was talking the Home Sec, briefly.
I mentioned my solution to the issue of the deliberate destruction of records in Rotherham - to place those responsible for the destruction on the offenders registers. The horror from the civil servant at the Home Sec's elbow was entertaining - "but these are public servants... serious people... this would ruin their lives".
Because those powered by diesel are rather buggered...
The fake electors, on the other hand, was deliberate policy to overturn a democratic election.
Of course it'll have the unfortunate effect of raising inflation slightly for everyone as the retailers taking the piss with prices (Everyone bar Costco tbh) will doubtless just slap 5p on even though they have increased profits when it was reduced !
In my case, they get presented among with other coinage and the occasional note to pay for my purchases at locations such as my local chip shop (they have a card machine, but it takes a year and a day to process if the signal is naff like it is half the time), or sandwich shop (card machine is more reliable, but talking to the owner it works out cheaper for them to handle cash than pay the merchant fees - lots of fairly small transactions make "per transaction" card fees add up quickly).
On a wet bank holiday weekend.
I looked again and the picture was obscured by the addition of four SoCalStrategies, two of which had Biden on the poll.
To try to resolve the issue I went to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election#Pennsylvania . The honest response seems to be that now that RFK has manfully run away, the state is too close to call.
Is anyone else getting increasingly bemused that, despite the state of the country, the government is deciding to spend its hard-won political capital on issues like this?
But Trump, I think, has a fairly hard ceiling. I don't think Harris does to the same extent.
A landslide is pretty unlikely, but far more unlikely for Trump.
I used to go through it 2 or 3 times a year, since my grandparents retired from Sheffield to Prestatyn Beach Road, near the Pink Hotel, which became the Yellow Hotel, and is now the Beige Hotel.
2) This is something
3) Therefore we must do this
Are you Liz Truss?
Nothing to see here, just a normal day in MAGA land.
And while production is at an all time high under Biden/Harris, they're suspicious of her earlier outspoken opposition to the industry.
PB may have a fair few of the latter but has little knowledge of the former.
https://www.moneyexpert.com/news/move-cashless-society-will-disproportionately-affect-pensioners-poorest-uk/