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Could the economy win it for Kamala Harris? – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    MaxPB said:

    Indeed, that's a list of front line roles that seem to be falling yet NHS employment is up 200k, so if front line workers are falling back but overall employment is up it adds up to a fairly obvious conclusion.
    You're conflating a few roles, some not even in the NHS, with the whole.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    Nunu5 said:

    Well precisely. There's no guarantee that dissatisfaction with Labour will directly beenfit the tories.
    Yes there is. Zero sum game (at least to some extent). And Starmer is visibly a dud, less than 8 weeks in.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,136
    edited August 2024

    Labour could face a bigger wipeout than the Tories did in 2024 because the anti-Labour vote will be very efficient, like a mirror image of their big majority on a low share of the vote.
    Isn't the anti-Labour vote in the Shires the Lib Dems?

    That's what's missing from all this analysis. The Tories are caught between the Lib Dems and Reform. Labour isn't the real problem, oddly enough.

    There might be something quite seismic happening on the right in Scotland; starting to look a little existential for the Scons. A microcosm, perhaps.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    The PB Tories still clearly haven’t come to terms with either their defeat, or the scale of their defeat, or both. It will come, in time.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited August 2024
    Eabhal said:

    Isn't the anti-Labour vote in the Shires the Lib Dems?

    That's what's missing from all this analysis. The Tories are caught between the Lib Dems and Reform. Labour isn't the real problem, oddly enough.

    There might be something quite seismic happening on the right in Scotland; starting to look a little existential for the Scons. A microcosm, perhaps.
    Though that's partly like a dog, licking, and sphericals - because the voters can. The voters can vote for them without wasting their time (the only reason the Tories and Greens have much representation at Holyrood much of the time).

    Reform would have a much greater representation in English seats at Westminster if that house didn't rely on such an, erm, historical voting system.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,818
    Eabhal said:

    Isn't the anti-Labour vote in the Shires the Lib Dems?

    That's what's missing from all this analysis. The Tories are caught between the Lib Dems and Reform. Labour isn't the real problem, oddly enough.

    There might be something quite seismic happening on the right in Scotland; starting to look a little existential for the Scons. A microcosm, perhaps.
    My pre-GE theory was that Labour would win a big majority this time but then face a pincer movement between the Lib Dems and Reform in the next parliament. Whether there's a Tory revival depends a lot on who they chose as leader and whether they get a bit of luck.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    HYUFD said:

    Ed Miliband achieved it within 6 months, the first Labour poll lead after the May 2010 election was late September 2010 with Yougov.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    The Labour tax bombshell rises coming in the autumn will be as unpopular with Middle England as Cameron and Clegg's austerity was with the public sector, students and unions if not more so

    Good spot, though he was not starting as far behind,
  • mercator said:

    Yes there is. Zero sum game (at least to some extent). And Starmer is visibly a dud, less than 8 weeks in.
    The Lib Dems won 72 seats on 12-13% of the vote - they have been higher than that in recent memory, 18% under Ashdown, 22% with Kennedy and Clegg.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Yep.

    It is can kicking of the highest order.

    As Dilnot has said - I paraphrase - : we don't need another fucking inquiry to tell us what the problem is we need people to make a decision on what the solution is.
    Don't we? At least a review to check the current situation. The Tories sat on Dilnot for so long. Since 2011. Thirteen years!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,512
    Nunu5 said:

    wtf? She can't have been that bad. not sure I (want to) believe that
    Yeh, can't be Liz. She's a v bright comp kid who made good so she will know that the way to save a ton of money in the NHS hospital system is to close A&E on a bank holiday weekend and not allow anyone - no matter how old - to be admitted for a UTI.

  • eekeek Posts: 29,732
    edited August 2024
    MaxPB said:

    That seems like a poorly trained model. Non existent policies shouldn't be in the training data.
    Yep but it’s also reality see https://www.wired.com/story/air-canada-chatbot-refund-policy/

    oh or https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/21/this-founder-had-to-train-his-ai-to-not-rickroll-people/ when the user asks for a video tutorial
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited August 2024

    This is almost certainly a factor.

    Were she unattractive and older, yet alone a male, there wouldn't be an appeal.
    If you read the article, you will see that the concern is more with the general principles and problems of statistical evidence, well beyond this case.

  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,915
    Carnyx said:

    Don't we? At least a review to check the current situation. The Tories sat on Dilnot for so long. Since 2011. Thirteen years!
    Quick review:
    The same but worse.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    The PB Tories still clearly haven’t come to terms with either their defeat, or the scale of their defeat, or both. It will come, in time.

    Denial. Starmer is not a dud.

    Anger. How very dare you turn round after 14 years of misrule and accurately claim after 7 weeks that Starmer is a dud?

    Bargaining. Please God let us get a month past the budget without any polls showing a 5 point Tory lead. And let the next winter of discontent be 2025-6 not 2024-5.

    Depression. Self explanatory.

    Acceptance. That the Tories are the natural party of government.

    The sooner you start on this journey the quicker it will be over.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Yeh, can't be Liz. She's a v bright comp kid who made good so she will know that the way to save a ton of money in the NHS hospital system is to close A&E on a bank holiday weekend and not allow anyone - no matter how old - to be admitted for a UTI.

    Which is a prime cause of temporary dementia in the elderly. Happened to my great-aunt.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Quick review:
    The same but worse.
    Quite possibly: I'd nbe surprised if it were better. But a quick review still takes a few months at least to plug in the latest figures. I wouldn't dream of making a public comment on policy till October if I were the Labour leadership.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    mercator said:

    Denial. Starmer is not a dud.

    Anger. How very dare you turn round after 14 years of misrule and accurately claim after 7 weeks that Starmer is a dud?

    Bargaining. Please God let us get a month past the budget without any polls showing a 5 point Tory lead. And let the next winter of discontent be 2025-6 not 2024-5.

    Depression. Self explanatory.

    Acceptance. That the Tories are the natural party of government.

    The sooner you start on this journey the quicker it will be over.
    QED
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,806
    MaxPB said:

    Indeed, that's a list of front line roles that seem to be falling yet NHS employment is up 200k, so if front line workers are falling back but overall employment is up it adds up to a fairly obvious conclusion.
    And how many NHS workers does it take in 'public health' to tell us to eat 5 portions of fruit and veg a day, and not smoke (about as innovative and helpful as it gets), when the creative work, the deployment, media buying etc. in those campaigns is farmed out to marketing agencies anyway?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,915
    edited August 2024
    Carnyx said:

    Which is a prime cause of temporary dementia in the elderly. Happened to my great-aunt.
    Yes. I wonder how much "dementia" is actually low level UTIs.

    Weirdly quite a lot of care staff either don't seem to know this or believe you when you say that someone is actually worse than they should be and maybe, just maybe, they should do a urine test.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,806
    edited August 2024
    HYUFD said:
    Been done. Bullshit. No surprise to see you spreading bollocks about a former Tory PM. With Tory activists like you, who needs Labour trolls?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,806
    MaxPB said:

    Me too, CR, me too. Starmer talks about being a grown up but there's nothing grown up about giving into the unions and telling lies about the state of the economy to justify mega tax rises. Sunak and Hunt got the economy growing despite all of the negativity from international bodies, domestic media and public sentiment driven by that relentlessly negative media coverage.

    The economy is going to bleed out by a thousand spending rises and tax rises. It really might be time to make plans to exit, there's clearly no point in working hard in the UK, Labour will just punish us.
    Being better than Keir Starmer is hardly a ringing endorsement. It was a miserable Government and it folded and threw in the towel against Labour. Nobody forced Sunak to go to the polls.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,512

    Yes. I wonder how much "dementia" is actually low level UTIs.

    Weirdly quite a lot of care staff either don't seem to know this or believe you when you say that someone is actually worse than they should be and maybe, just maybe, they should do a urine test.
    My experience is care staff and nhs staff know all about UTI and delirium type symptoms to the point that that is all they want to consider when someone presents.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,136
    edited August 2024

    Been done. Bullshit. No surprise to see you spreading bollocks about a former Tory PM. With Tory activists like you, who needs Labour trolls?
    After the 52mph cyclist debacle, I find myself in the unfamiliar position of siding with Liz Truss (and indeed Luckyguy).

    I remember the Telegraph being a fairly standard paper; I read it in rotation with the Times and the Guardian on long train journeys. What happened?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    Being better than Keir Starmer is hardly a ringing endorsement. It was a miserable Government and it folded and threw in the towel against Labour. Nobody forced Sunak to go to the polls.
    Say what you like about Rishi and Hunt, they got the economy moving again after the years of mismanagement by Boris and Liz Truss with her awful 30 days of trashing our reputation among bond investors. I agree that he should have waited until November.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,915
    edited August 2024

    My experience is care staff and nhs staff know all about UTI and delirium type symptoms to the point that that is all they want to consider when someone presents.
    OK, fair enough. Maybe we got them on a bad night.

    I think our problem was that we had someone with actual dementia who just presented as a bit worse with a UTI and you had to know what they were like before in order to spot the change.

    Long term low dose antibiotics now, which seems to have stopped the problem (and, oddly, slowed the Alzheimer's decline too, which raises all sorts of questions).
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732
    MaxPB said:

    Say what you like about Rishi and Hunt, they got the economy moving again after the years of mismanagement by Boris and Liz Truss with her awful 30 days of trashing our reputation among bond investors. I agree that he should have waited until November.
    There has been a complete lack of business IT projects since about October last year.

    Don’t take my word for it I can provide 10,000 recruiter confirmations….
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,136

    OK, fair enough. Maybe we got them on a bad night.

    I think our problem was that we had someone with actual dementia who just presented as a bit worse with a UTI and you had to know what they were like before in order to spot the change.

    Long term low dose antibiotics now, which seems to have stopped the problem (and, oddly, slowed the Alzheimer's decline too, which raises all sorts of questions).
    Yes, it's incredibly difficult for staff to spot these slow incremental changes. I'm useful in some respects because I only turn up every few months or so, so pick up changes that my older relatives don't.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,136
    MaxPB said:

    Say what you like about Rishi and Hunt, they got the economy moving again after the years of mismanagement by Boris and Liz Truss with her awful 30 days of trashing our reputation among bond investors. I agree that he should have waited until November.
    It does look like Labour are betting on improved relations with the EU helping with growth in the medium-term. It's probably the lowest hanging fruit; longer term issues around productivity, labour market participation and so on are much harder to fix.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Labour could face a bigger wipeout than the Tories did in 2024 because the anti-Labour vote will be very efficient, like a mirror image of their big majority on a low share of the vote.
    It doesn't require a coherant opposition. Labour can destroy itself from within on any number of issues, but most likely a combination of Gaza and austerity. It is hard to see what they are achieving whilst in power, they aren't giving their MP's anything to report back to their constituents.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    Eabhal said:

    It does look like Labour are betting on improved relations with the EU helping with growth in the medium-term. It's probably the lowest hanging fruit; longer term issues around productivity, labour market participation and so on are much harder to fix.
    With the EU economy performing so poorly I don't we very much upside from this and if it means closer regulatory alignment, especially on AI/data where the EU is desperate to force other countries to adopt their stupid ideas, it will end up being a net negative. If anything I think easing import/export barriers will probably be a net negative for the only major economy showing signs of life as we spend more in Europe and get nothing back for it from them in the way of exports because the economy there is moribund.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,502
    edited August 2024
    Eabhal said:

    It does look like Labour are betting on improved relations with the EU helping with growth in the medium-term. It's probably the lowest hanging fruit; longer term issues around productivity, labour market participation and so on are much harder to fix.
    I've spent more of my career than I'd have liked in negotiations with the EU and nothing with them is low hanging fruit. They are mostly arrogant, inflexible and dogmatic (except when it suits them, e.g. over the definition of subsidiarity) and often surprisingly incompetent, especially DG-AG and DG-MOVE.

    And that was when we were members ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,013
    Eabhal said:

    Isn't the anti-Labour vote in the Shires the Lib Dems?

    That's what's missing from all this analysis. The Tories are caught between the Lib Dems and Reform. Labour isn't the real problem, oddly enough.

    There might be something quite seismic happening on the right in Scotland; starting to look a little existential for the Scons. A microcosm, perhaps.
    The Tories lost 2019 voters to Labour, the LDs and Reform, if a high tax, high immigration Labour government is very unpopular and the Tories the best way to get rid of them both wings could come back. In Scotland too.

    Labour could also leak to its left to the Greens
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,263
    Eabhal said:

    After the 52mph cyclist debacle, I find myself in the unfamiliar position of siding with Liz Truss (and indeed Luckyguy).

    I remember the Telegraph being a fairly standard paper; I read it in rotation with the Times and the Guardian on long train journeys. What happened?
    It stopped trying to inform people and instead sought clicks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited August 2024

    The PB Tories still clearly haven’t come to terms with either their defeat, or the scale of their defeat, or both. It will come, in time.

    It would have been far worse for them (in terms of morale) if they'd lost by 20% or 15% [as the polls were continually saying] instead of 10%. They can also point to the fact that the combined Tory/RefUK share was 39% compared to 35% for Lab, (using GB figures, not UK).
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,693
    viewcode said:

    It stopped trying to inform people and instead sought clicks.
    From memory, it was going downhill well before internet revenue was dominant. Pretty women on the front page, and so on.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Eabhal said:

    After the 52mph cyclist debacle, I find myself in the unfamiliar position of siding with Liz Truss (and indeed Luckyguy).

    I remember the Telegraph being a fairly standard paper; I read it in rotation with the Times and the Guardian on long train journeys. What happened?
    I still prefer reading physical newspapers to the online versions. Probably doesn't make logical sense.
  • And how many NHS workers does it take in 'public health' to tell us to eat 5 portions of fruit and veg a day, and not smoke (about as innovative and helpful as it gets), when the creative work, the deployment, media buying etc. in those campaigns is farmed out to marketing agencies anyway?
    Public health was passed to local authorities under Lansley's reforms. As well as telling us to eat more fruit, they are also responsible for capacity planning, health visitors and so on.
  • darkage said:

    It doesn't require a coherant opposition. Labour can destroy itself from within on any number of issues, but most likely a combination of Gaza and austerity. It is hard to see what they are achieving whilst in power, they aren't giving their MP's anything to report back to their constituents.
    Another danger for Labour is internal unrest not on any policy but from the number of highly qualified new MPs who think themselves better, quite possibly rightly, than backbench fodder for incompetent ministers promoted above them, and recent charges of nepotism might not help there.
  • carnforth said:

    From memory, it was going downhill well before internet revenue was dominant. Pretty women on the front page, and so on.
    The Telegraph went downhill after it sacked @Leon, formerly of these pages. To be more serious, I do not know but do remember asking the same question when it lurched to the batshit right for no apparent reason (that is, no change of editor or proprietor).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    Andy_JS said:
    There are a lot of people who won't believe Trump can lose, until he loses, I think.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    Law prohibits the use of the cemetery for electoral purposes.

    From NPR’s ⁦@QuilLawrence:⁩ Arlington National Cemetery officials say Trump campaign staff verbally abused and pushed aside cemetery official who objected to filming and photography at gravesites
    https://x.com/davidfolkenflik/status/1828564672490152400
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,256
    edited August 2024

    Labour could face a bigger wipeout than the Tories did in 2024 because the anti-Labour vote will be very efficient, like a mirror image of their big majority on a low share of the vote.
    Seven weeks in and on PB we are looking at the inevitable end of the Labour Party in 2029. By February 2020 in the last Parliament we were pondering who might take over from Johnson during his fifth term.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,539

    Seven weeks in and on PB we are looking at the inevitable end of the Labour Party in 2029. By February 2020 in the last Parliament we were pondering who might take over from Johnson during his fifth term.
    The only mystery is why it has taken us 7 weeks.

    It's what we do.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    An American plastic surgeon concludes Kamala Harris hasn't had any plastic surgery, which must be slightly unusual for top American politicians of a certain age.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKXkSznjP-8
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,256

    The only mystery is why it has taken us 7 weeks.

    It's what we do.
    Fair play, you were on the case by close of business on 5th July.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,283
    MaxPB said:

    With the EU economy performing so poorly I don't we very much upside from this and if it means closer regulatory alignment, especially on AI/data where the EU is desperate to force other countries to adopt their stupid ideas, it will end up being a net negative. If anything I think easing import/export barriers will probably be a net negative for the only major economy showing signs of life as we spend more in Europe and get nothing back for it from them in the way of exports because the economy there is moribund.
    With Keir's negotiating ability, we'll give them everything they want, including the strait jacket, and get next to nothing back.
  • Liz Truss wanted to sign eye-watering energy deal that would have cost bill-payers £30bn extra
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liz-truss-book-kwarteng-energy-norway-deal-b2602401.html

    Thank heaven it was not Keir Starmer negotiating!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    Nigelb said:

    Law prohibits the use of the cemetery for electoral purposes.

    From NPR’s ⁦@QuilLawrence:⁩ Arlington National Cemetery officials say Trump campaign staff verbally abused and pushed aside cemetery official who objected to filming and photography at gravesites
    https://x.com/davidfolkenflik/status/1828564672490152400

    I hope this grave matter is treated seriously and not buried away by the media.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,806
    MaxPB said:

    Say what you like about Rishi and Hunt, they got the economy moving again after the years of mismanagement by Boris and Liz Truss with her awful 30 days of trashing our reputation among bond investors. I agree that he should have waited until November.
    Meh. Liz Truss was politically inastute. But it wasn't her who caused the market turbulence.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,806

    I hope this grave matter is treated seriously and not buried away by the media.
    That pun was dead on arrival.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,806

    Liz Truss wanted to sign eye-watering energy deal that would have cost bill-payers £30bn extra
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liz-truss-book-kwarteng-energy-norway-deal-b2602401.html

    Thank heaven it was not Keir Starmer negotiating!

    More condemnation of Liz Truss wanting to do that and thinking of doing this. That Anthony Seldon really missed his vocation as a mind reader.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited August 2024
    .

    With Keir's negotiating ability, we'll give them everything they want, including the strait jacket, and get next to nothing back.
    Boris Johnson has already done that. Which means I sort of agree with you. Keir Starmer won't get much out of the EU.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732

    Meh. Liz Truss was politically inastute. But it wasn't her who caused the market turbulence.
    Who was it that spooked the markets...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    eek said:

    Who was it that spooked the markets...
    Rishi Sunak, and his friends in Parliament and the Treasury.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,369
    HYUFD said:
    Oh puh'lease.

    Why would any politician - even one as tin eared as Truss - scrap cancer treatment on the NHS? It's like the suggestion that politicians would want to keep covid restrictions: it depends on politicians not wanting to be reelected.
  • eek said:

    Who was it that spooked the markets...
    The WEF globalist conspiracy infesting Whitehall?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,539
    Nigelb said:

    Law prohibits the use of the cemetery for electoral purposes.

    From NPR’s ⁦@QuilLawrence:⁩ Arlington National Cemetery officials say Trump campaign staff verbally abused and pushed aside cemetery official who objected to filming and photography at gravesites
    https://x.com/davidfolkenflik/status/1828564672490152400

    What was Trump doing there anyway? On his "Suckers and Losers" tour?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,145
    edited August 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    Oh puh'lease.

    Why would any politician - even one as tin eared as Truss - scrap cancer treatment on the NHS? It's like the suggestion that politicians would want to keep covid restrictions: it depends on politicians not wanting to be reelected.
    Somehow I can see Liz Truss exploring all the options, rather like in Mitchell & Webb

    It's morally wrong and that's why we can run it through the computer because we know whatever it says we're not going to do it ... we were pretty sure that child brothels would help with arts funding but does that mean we did it? No. Never got beyond the pilot scheme in Yeovil.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_4J4uor3JE

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,283
    FF43 said:

    .

    Boris Johnson has already done that. Which means I sort of agree with you. Keir Starmer won't get much out of the EU.
    What's fascinating is how poorly even the established media in the UK understand the EU, like, err, The Times.

    Leading news today about the UK striking a new treaty with Germany on market access, which isn't possible unless negotiated with the EU.

    [What they probably mean is a political treaty and some bilateral negotiations that might influence the position that Germany might take as an EU member state in the European Council, but that isn't the same thing.]
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,516
    Sandpit said:

    Rishi Sunak, and his friends in Parliament and the Treasury.
    Sunak was a backbench MP at the time.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    eek said:

    Who was it that spooked the markets...
    The anti-growth dinner-party-going coalition crashed the economy, according to Liz Truss, who surely must know.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686

    What was Trump doing there anyway? On his "Suckers and Losers" tour?
    Giving a thumbs up in a photo shoot by the grave of one of those killed in the Afghan withdrawal.
    https://x.com/ArmyofNaveed/status/1828582244279005507
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    ydoethur said:

    Sunak was a backbench MP at the time.
    Doesn't matter. He was part of the anti-growth coalition and went to dinner parties.
  • What's fascinating is how poorly even the established media in the UK understand the EU, like, err, The Times.

    Leading news today about the UK striking a new treaty with Germany on market access, which isn't possible unless negotiated with the EU.

    [What they probably mean is a political treaty and some bilateral negotiations that might influence the position that Germany might take as an EU member state in the European Council, but that isn't the same thing.]
    It is the same mistake David Cameron made: believing the eurosceptic line that the EU is a racket run from Berlin for Germany's benefit. It is slightly more complicated than that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686

    What's fascinating is how poorly even the established media in the UK understand the EU, like, err, The Times.

    Leading news today about the UK striking a new treaty with Germany on market access, which isn't possible unless negotiated with the EU.

    [What they probably mean is a political treaty and some bilateral negotiations that might influence the position that Germany might take as an EU member state in the European Council, but that isn't the same thing.]
    The BBC described the bilateral talks - as bilateral talks - in some detail.

    In any event, such agreements with Germany and France are probably essential precursors to being able to negotiate new arrangements with the EU.
  • NEW THREAD

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    It is the same mistake David Cameron made: believing the eurosceptic line that the EU is a racket run from Berlin for Germany's benefit. It is slightly more complicated than that.
    Noteworthy about the last Conservative government is the amount of long term damage they have incurred with short term expedients. Brexit is an example. Also abolishing Sure start, two child cap that blights peoples lives.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    Carnyx said:

    You're conflating a few roles, some not even in the NHS, with the whole.
    Small state enthusiasts love to go on about how we could cut NHS non-patient-facing staff and that would solve everything. They seem to ignore that we HAVE cut such staff. There were 40% staff cuts in NHS England under the last government: https://www.nhsprocurement.org.uk/news/6000-plus-jobs-be-cut-new-nhs-england

    The result has been that so much important activity ground to a half for months. Lots of the good staff up and left before the redundancies came in. Activity to support innovation and the adoption of digital tech to save money has stalled.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,283
    FF43 said:

    Noteworthy about the last Conservative government is the amount of long term damage they have incurred with short term expedients. Brexit is an example. Also abolishing Sure start, two child cap that blights peoples lives.
    The Conservatives raised our education standards to a very high level in the international league table, got on top of the deficit, reformed pensions so everyone now takes an interest, kept unemployment low, lowered direct taxation for low to middle earners, and resolved a longstanding political sore with our neighbours that had been running for decades.

    There are plenty of things I'd prefer they'd done differently or better at on top but the propaganda about their time in office is just that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,283
    Nigelb said:

    The BBC described the bilateral talks - as bilateral talks - in some detail.

    In any event, such agreements with Germany and France are probably essential precursors to being able to negotiate new arrangements with the EU.
    They weren't during Cameron's renegotiation or the Brexit negotiations, were they?

    Talk to the hand Von Der Leyen.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,283

    It is the same mistake David Cameron made: believing the eurosceptic line that the EU is a racket run from Berlin for Germany's benefit. It is slightly more complicated than that.
    Yep. The very fact Remainy type media still get this wrong show how little all Britons understand the EU, and why it really wasn't for us.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    ydoethur said:

    Sunak was a backbench MP at the time.
    Indeed, leading the rebellion.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668

    And how many NHS workers does it take in 'public health' to tell us to eat 5 portions of fruit and veg a day, and not smoke (about as innovative and helpful as it gets), when the creative work, the deployment, media buying etc. in those campaigns is farmed out to marketing agencies anyway?
    From https://www.statista.com/statistics/1355743/food-ad-spend-television-uk/

    “TV advertising spending of companies in the food sector stood at 816.18 million U.S. dollars in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2021. That constitutes an increase of 215.8 million dollars or 35.95 percent compared to the value of 600.36 million reported a year earlier.”

    When most of that advertising spend is trying to get us to eat unhealthily, you would need a lot of money to counter that with effective public health messages.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    The Conservatives raised our education standards to a very high level in the international league table, got on top of the deficit, reformed pensions so everyone now takes an interest, kept unemployment low, lowered direct taxation for low to middle earners, and resolved a longstanding political sore with our neighbours that had been running for decades.

    There are plenty of things I'd prefer they'd done differently or better at on top but the propaganda about their time in office is just that.
    The previous government can take credit for improved educational standards in England IMO.

    Fiscal position is mixed but mostly negative. Deficit is steady, public debt is up, interest payments massively up, while public services are significantly worse..This is partly driven by COVID but largely the government's austerity policy.

    Don't know about pension reform. Not sure the Conservative government can take credit for low unemployment.

    The Conservatives left taxation higher than it ever has been. Because of COVID again but also of low growth in part caused by its Brexit policy.

    It massively aggravated rather than resolved a longstanding political sore with our neighbours.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,617
    Nunu5 said:

    wtf? She can't have been that bad. not sure I (want to) believe that
    A negative report about Loopy Liz in the Telegraph?

    What happened - did they discover this thing called "journalism"?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,617
    edited August 2024

    The WEF globalist conspiracy infesting Whitehall?
    The WEF conspiracy makes it to some strange places.

    I keep meeting it in the BCP & Dorset Motorists FB Group, amongst all the other kittens they keep having. And also on certain Youtube channels - especially a slightly strange middle aged urban explorer Sheffield Youtuber, who is obsessed with how cycle lanes are destroying the world.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,253
    rcs1000 said:

    Her policy is not having dementia, and not having instigated an attempted coup.

    I'm not sure she needs to have much beyond that to win my support.
    Once again, the Dem nominee is acceptable under the circumstances?
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