This poll feels like an outlier – politicalbetting.com
This poll feels like an outlier – politicalbetting.com
Vice President Harris holds a 7-point edge over former President Trump nationally in a new poll.https://t.co/JGd8qgiG0X
Comments
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And how does Braun rate on the 538 pollster metrics?0
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Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.3 -
3.5% plus or minus?
That’s a pretty wide error bar…
If it’s true, then barring some very regional effects (winning 100% of California) she is looking at an EC win.
We need polling in the swing states. And states that are one edge of being swing states. Florida in contention?0 -
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.0 -
This poll appears to be from Fairleigh Dickinson University not Braun.
https://www.fdu.edu/news/fdu-poll-finds-race-and-gender-push-harris-above-trump-nationally/
Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, August 23, 2024 – Voters nationally give Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris an edge over former President Donald Trump in November’s election by a seven-point margin (50 to 43), but race and gender remains central to the vote. When voters are made to think about the race or gender of the candidates, Harris’ lead grows substantially; when they’re not, support is essentially tied. Harris is also helped by strong support among the slightly less than half of men who reject traditionally masculine identities. Trump’s strongest support is among men who hold traditionally masculine identities, while women and other men strongly favor Harris.0 -
FDU commissioned the poll but Braun conducted the poll.Verulamius said:This poll appears to be from Fairleigh Dickinson University not Braun.
https://www.fdu.edu/news/fdu-poll-finds-race-and-gender-push-harris-above-trump-nationally/
Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, August 23, 2024 – Voters nationally give Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris an edge over former President Donald Trump in November’s election by a seven-point margin (50 to 43), but race and gender remains central to the vote. When voters are made to think about the race or gender of the candidates, Harris’ lead grows substantially; when they’re not, support is essentially tied. Harris is also helped by strong support among the slightly less than half of men who reject traditionally masculine identities. Trump’s strongest support is among men who hold traditionally masculine identities, while women and other men strongly favor Harris.
The survey was conducted between August 17 and August 20, 2024, using a voter list of registered voters nationwide carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey.
Respondents were contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 801 registered voters nationally. 520 of the surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews to landlines (30%) and cellphones (70%) and the remainder (281) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.0 -
We’re not guaranteed to get to sentencing . The judge will on the 16th September decide on the immunity question . The sentencing was due on the 18th but it’s likely Trumps lawyers will appeal the immunity ruling if it goes against Trump .ydoethur said:
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.1 -
Reading down it appears to be undertaken by Braun Research for Fairleigh DickinsonVerulamius said:This poll appears to be from Fairleigh Dickinson University not Braun.
https://www.fdu.edu/news/fdu-poll-finds-race-and-gender-push-harris-above-trump-nationally/
Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, August 23, 2024 – Voters nationally give Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris an edge over former President Donald Trump in November’s election by a seven-point margin (50 to 43), but race and gender remains central to the vote. When voters are made to think about the race or gender of the candidates, Harris’ lead grows substantially; when they’re not, support is essentially tied. Harris is also helped by strong support among the slightly less than half of men who reject traditionally masculine identities. Trump’s strongest support is among men who hold traditionally masculine identities, while women and other men strongly favor Harris.0 -
The morning thread is cricket themed as I compare Starmer to a test cricketer.ydoethur said:
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.0 -
This is what conservatives with functioning brains think of Trump's campaign performance:
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/08/25/trump-harris-2024-election/74863488007/
Trump's biggest hurdle is not President Joe Biden, Vice President Harris or her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
Trump's biggest obstacle is Trump.
I've listened to Trump speak hundreds of times. Reporting on a news conference is a nightmare because Trump cannot commit to the self-discipline that it takes to prepare ahead of time, pare his thoughts to a handful of strong talking points and then cogently answer questions on what his administration would look like.
Trump insists on coming across like a moron. I'm not saying he is one, but he sounds like one. His thoughts and ideas flow with a stream of consciousness that makes William Faulkner look like a children's nursery rhyme. He jumps from idea to idea like a hip-hop artist doing a break dancing routine at the Olympic level.
As a result, he's unable to make a strong case for anything − and politics is nothing if not the art of persuasion − even though he actually has the record to show he accomplished good things for America during his previous administration.
And mark - this is one of his *supporters* speaking.0 -
Ollie Robinson? Starts promisingly but then underlying issues mean everyone hates him and he gets dropped for inferior models like Potts?TheScreamingEagles said:
The morning thread is cricket themed as I compare Starmer to a test cricketer.ydoethur said:
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.0 -
Wait until the morning, I suspect my comparison will be controversial.ydoethur said:
Ollie Robinson? Starts promisingly but then underlying issues mean everyone hates him and he gets dropped for inferior models like Potts?TheScreamingEagles said:
The morning thread is cricket themed as I compare Starmer to a test cricketer.ydoethur said:
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.0 -
You're not, surely, going to compare him to...TheScreamingEagles said:
Wait until the morning, I suspect my comparison will be controversial.ydoethur said:
Ollie Robinson? Starts promisingly but then underlying issues mean everyone hates him and he gets dropped for inferior models like Potts?TheScreamingEagles said:
The morning thread is cricket themed as I compare Starmer to a test cricketer.ydoethur said:
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.
The one...
The only...
The greatest ever batsman...
CHRIS MARTIN?!!!!0 -
The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 236 missiles and UAVs today, including:
-3 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile
-6 Iskander-M / KN-23 ballistic missiles
-77 Kh-101 cruise missiles
-28 Kalibr cruise missiles
-3 Kh-22 cruise missiles
-10 Kh-59 / Kh-69 air-to-surface missiles from Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft
-109 Shahed-131 / 136
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1828109957356487086
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Or Beefy??TheScreamingEagles said:
Wait until the morning, I suspect my comparison will be controversial.ydoethur said:
Ollie Robinson? Starts promisingly but then underlying issues mean everyone hates him and he gets dropped for inferior models like Potts?TheScreamingEagles said:
The morning thread is cricket themed as I compare Starmer to a test cricketer.ydoethur said:
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.0 -
Beefy is Johnson.The_Woodpecker said:
Or Beefy??TheScreamingEagles said:
Wait until the morning, I suspect my comparison will be controversial.ydoethur said:
Ollie Robinson? Starts promisingly but then underlying issues mean everyone hates him and he gets dropped for inferior models like Potts?TheScreamingEagles said:
The morning thread is cricket themed as I compare Starmer to a test cricketer.ydoethur said:
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.
Overpromoted serial shagger occasionally capable of extraordinary feats of inspiration, but too lazy to do the hard yards, totally inept as a leader and only ever talks or thinks about himself.3 -
Does that make the 2019 election Boris’s Headingley 81?ydoethur said:
Beefy is Johnson.The_Woodpecker said:
Or Beefy??TheScreamingEagles said:
Wait until the morning, I suspect my comparison will be controversial.ydoethur said:
Ollie Robinson? Starts promisingly but then underlying issues mean everyone hates him and he gets dropped for inferior models like Potts?TheScreamingEagles said:
The morning thread is cricket themed as I compare Starmer to a test cricketer.ydoethur said:
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.
Overpromoted serial shagger occasionally capable of extraordinary feats of inspiration, but too lazy to do the hard yards, totally inept as a leader and only ever talks or thinks about himself.0 -
Couple of possible trading bets:
Missouri. Reddish state. Abortion is on the ballot. The Republican Senate candidate is leading the anti-abortion charge. If Harris is really starting to pull ten points clear it might come into play.
And for a crazy left-field bet:
Arkansas. Arkansas's Republican-packed Supreme Court has just backed the Secretary of State's procedural dismissal of a ballot on abortion. This was a popular ballot - it exceeded the threshold of signature by 12% without breaking a sweat - and the Republican hierarchy have foolishly been gloating that they introduced and have now kept a total ban on abortion.
Even with that, if Arkansas goes blue it will be a colossal landslide for Harris, but it may come in in price.1 -
Possibly his Ashes '81 given all that went before and still came after, but yes, I'd give the election itself as Headingley.williamglenn said:
Does that make the 2019 election Boris’s Headingley 81?ydoethur said:
Beefy is Johnson.The_Woodpecker said:
Or Beefy??TheScreamingEagles said:
Wait until the morning, I suspect my comparison will be controversial.ydoethur said:
Ollie Robinson? Starts promisingly but then underlying issues mean everyone hates him and he gets dropped for inferior models like Potts?TheScreamingEagles said:
The morning thread is cricket themed as I compare Starmer to a test cricketer.ydoethur said:
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.
Overpromoted serial shagger occasionally capable of extraordinary feats of inspiration, but too lazy to do the hard yards, totally inept as a leader and only ever talks or thinks about himself.0 -
The Tories were never 500/1 to win the 2019 election.williamglenn said:
Does that make the 2019 election Boris’s Headingley 81?ydoethur said:
Beefy is Johnson.The_Woodpecker said:
Or Beefy??TheScreamingEagles said:
Wait until the morning, I suspect my comparison will be controversial.ydoethur said:
Ollie Robinson? Starts promisingly but then underlying issues mean everyone hates him and he gets dropped for inferior models like Potts?TheScreamingEagles said:
The morning thread is cricket themed as I compare Starmer to a test cricketer.ydoethur said:
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.
Overpromoted serial shagger occasionally capable of extraordinary feats of inspiration, but too lazy to do the hard yards, totally inept as a leader and only ever talks or thinks about himself.0 -
Hick ?The_Woodpecker said:
Or Beefy??TheScreamingEagles said:
Wait until the morning, I suspect my comparison will be controversial.ydoethur said:
Ollie Robinson? Starts promisingly but then underlying issues mean everyone hates him and he gets dropped for inferior models like Potts?TheScreamingEagles said:
The morning thread is cricket themed as I compare Starmer to a test cricketer.ydoethur said:
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.0 -
90% of the cruise missiles and Shahed were intercepted. Some of the rest were moved off target by electronic warfare. A couple went in to Belarussia.Nigelb said:The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 236 missiles and UAVs today, including:
-3 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile
-6 Iskander-M / KN-23 ballistic missiles
-77 Kh-101 cruise missiles
-28 Kalibr cruise missiles
-3 Kh-22 cruise missiles
-10 Kh-59 / Kh-69 air-to-surface missiles from Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft
-109 Shahed-131 / 136
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1828109957356487086
But some hit the power stations and caused black outs. There was something that was hit in Odessa that caused a massive plume of smoke. A price they have to pay for 2,000 sq km of Kursk negotiating turf.0 -
I suppose it was Starmer who beat the Aussies (Crosby/Levido).TheScreamingEagles said:
The Tories were never 500/1 to win the 2019 election.williamglenn said:
Does that make the 2019 election Boris’s Headingley 81?ydoethur said:
Beefy is Johnson.The_Woodpecker said:
Or Beefy??TheScreamingEagles said:
Wait until the morning, I suspect my comparison will be controversial.ydoethur said:
Ollie Robinson? Starts promisingly but then underlying issues mean everyone hates him and he gets dropped for inferior models like Potts?TheScreamingEagles said:
The morning thread is cricket themed as I compare Starmer to a test cricketer.ydoethur said:
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.
Overpromoted serial shagger occasionally capable of extraordinary feats of inspiration, but too lazy to do the hard yards, totally inept as a leader and only ever talks or thinks about himself.0 -
For @rcs1000
https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/08/us-grid-adds-batteries-at-10x-the-rate-of-natural-gas-in-first-half-of-2024/
Solar and battery build out continues to accelerate in the US.1 -
The evidence that they are running out of modern armaments because of sanctions etc is...mixed.Nigelb said:The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 236 missiles and UAVs today, including:
-3 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile
-6 Iskander-M / KN-23 ballistic missiles
-77 Kh-101 cruise missiles
-28 Kalibr cruise missiles
-3 Kh-22 cruise missiles
-10 Kh-59 / Kh-69 air-to-surface missiles from Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft
-109 Shahed-131 / 136
https://x.com/RALee85/status/18281099573564870860 -
They’re saving up the low rate production they have and launching these attacks at intervals.DavidL said:
The evidence that they are running out of modern armaments because of sanctions etc is...mixed.Nigelb said:The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 236 missiles and UAVs today, including:
-3 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile
-6 Iskander-M / KN-23 ballistic missiles
-77 Kh-101 cruise missiles
-28 Kalibr cruise missiles
-3 Kh-22 cruise missiles
-10 Kh-59 / Kh-69 air-to-surface missiles from Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft
-109 Shahed-131 / 136
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1828109957356487086
Note that a big chunk of their attack was the Iranian drones - big model aircraft essentially, with no terrain following or guidance systems. Which is why they are shot down in large numbers.1 -
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1828126743359603098
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
Could Labour supporters please stop screaming “But the Tories did it!!!”. Yes, we know. And you told us all it was an outrage they did it. And you also told us that was why we all had to vote for Keir Starmer, because he’d make sure it stopped.0 -
Arkansas elected Bill Clinton as Governor.ydoethur said:Couple of possible trading bets:
Missouri. Reddish state. Abortion is on the ballot. The Republican Senate candidate is leading the anti-abortion charge. If Harris is really starting to pull ten points clear it might come into play.
And for a crazy left-field bet:
Arkansas. Arkansas's Republican-packed Supreme Court has just backed the Secretary of State's procedural dismissal of a ballot on abortion. This was a popular ballot - it exceeded the threshold of signature by 12% without breaking a sweat - and the Republican hierarchy have foolishly been gloating that they introduced and have now kept a total ban on abortion.
Even with that, if Arkansas goes blue it will be a colossal landslide for Harris, but it may come in in price.
0 -
This is the argument I have made for why she will win big:ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.
Trump is bonkers and getting more so
Being clearly behind Harris and getting more behind will drive him more bonkers
The more bonkers he gets, the more behind he gets. Rinse and repeat
The True Believers will vote for him. However insane he is. But only they will...0 -
The problem is that the apparent percentage of True Believers in the portion of the electorate that is likely to vote, is high. Maybe 45% or so.RochdalePioneers said:
This is the argument I have made for why she will win big:ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.
Trump is bonkers and getting more so
Being clearly behind Harris and getting more behind will drive him more bonkers
The more bonkers he gets, the more behind he gets. Rinse and repeat
The True Believers will vote for him. However insane he is. But only they will...0 -
Who did Dan Hodges vote for?tlg86 said:https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1828126743359603098
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
Could Labour supporters please stop screaming “But the Tories did it!!!”. Yes, we know. And you told us all it was an outrage they did it. And you also told us that was why we all had to vote for Keir Starmer, because he’d make sure it stopped.0 -
And it voted for Clinton as President. Twice.rottenborough said:
Arkansas elected Bill Clinton as Governor.ydoethur said:Couple of possible trading bets:
Missouri. Reddish state. Abortion is on the ballot. The Republican Senate candidate is leading the anti-abortion charge. If Harris is really starting to pull ten points clear it might come into play.
And for a crazy left-field bet:
Arkansas. Arkansas's Republican-packed Supreme Court has just backed the Secretary of State's procedural dismissal of a ballot on abortion. This was a popular ballot - it exceeded the threshold of signature by 12% without breaking a sweat - and the Republican hierarchy have foolishly been gloating that they introduced and have now kept a total ban on abortion.
Even with that, if Arkansas goes blue it will be a colossal landslide for Harris, but it may come in in price.
That was a long, long time ago.1 -
Boycott?TheScreamingEagles said:
The morning thread is cricket themed as I compare Starmer to a test cricketer.ydoethur said:
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.
You have to admire the outcome even if you have the boring process?1 -
I remember a British political pundit trying to sound very well-informed about America pronouncing it “Are Kansas”.rottenborough said:
Arkansas elected Bill Clinton as Governor.ydoethur said:Couple of possible trading bets:
Missouri. Reddish state. Abortion is on the ballot. The Republican Senate candidate is leading the anti-abortion charge. If Harris is really starting to pull ten points clear it might come into play.
And for a crazy left-field bet:
Arkansas. Arkansas's Republican-packed Supreme Court has just backed the Secretary of State's procedural dismissal of a ballot on abortion. This was a popular ballot - it exceeded the threshold of signature by 12% without breaking a sweat - and the Republican hierarchy have foolishly been gloating that they introduced and have now kept a total ban on abortion.
Even with that, if Arkansas goes blue it will be a colossal landslide for Harris, but it may come in in price.0 -
Comparing Botham to Johnson seems a tad generous for the former PM. No-one would doubt beefy's credential as a legend of the game. I'd have thought Phil Tufnell would be a better one.
Given Starmer's historic achievement in the election, gaining 211 seats(!), the only cricketing comparison that seems reasonable would be Donald Bradman. Are the Tories set to try bodyline tactics as the only way to undo the great man?0 -
Could just be. I've ventured £2 on each at 50s. What the hell. You never know. Thanks.ydoethur said:Couple of possible trading bets:
Missouri. Reddish state. Abortion is on the ballot. The Republican Senate candidate is leading the anti-abortion charge. If Harris is really starting to pull ten points clear it might come into play.
And for a crazy left-field bet:
Arkansas. Arkansas's Republican-packed Supreme Court has just backed the Secretary of State's procedural dismissal of a ballot on abortion. This was a popular ballot - it exceeded the threshold of signature by 12% without breaking a sweat - and the Republican hierarchy have foolishly been gloating that they introduced and have now kept a total ban on abortion.
Even with that, if Arkansas goes blue it will be a colossal landslide for Harris, but it may come in in price.0 -
Best sporting comparison I can think of is Craig Brown as manager of Scotland in Estonia in 1996.FrankBooth said:Comparing Botham to Johnson seems a tad generous for the former PM. No-one would doubt beefy's credential as a legend of the game. I'd have thought Phil Tufnell would be a better one.
Given Starmer's historic achievement in the election, gaining 211 seats(!), the only cricketing comparison that seems reasonable would be Donald Bradman. Are the Tories set to try bodyline tactics as the only way to undo the great man?0 -
A new Echelon national poll meanwhile which finished polling yesterday has Harris and Trump tied at 48% each after the Democratic convention and Kennedy Jr left the race and endorsed Trump
"August 2024 Verified Voter Omnibus - Echelon Insights" https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/aug2024-verified-voterromnibus/
0 -
The existence of Trumpy Trout is pretty solid evidence for the insanity of a significant portion of the US.Malmesbury said:
The problem is that the apparent percentage of True Believers in the portion of the electorate that is likely to vote, is high. Maybe 45% or so.RochdalePioneers said:
This is the argument I have made for why she will win big:ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.
Trump is bonkers and getting more so
Being clearly behind Harris and getting more behind will drive him more bonkers
The more bonkers he gets, the more behind he gets. Rinse and repeat
The True Believers will vote for him. However insane he is. But only they will...0 -
And a new Kaplan survey on the 24th has Harris at 52% to Trump's 45%HYUFD said:A new Echelon national poll meanwhile which finished polling yesterday has Harris and Trump tied at 48% each after the Democratic convention and Kennedy Jr left the race and endorsed Trump
"August 2024 Verified Voter Omnibus - Echelon Insights" https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/aug2024-verified-voterromnibus/1 -
Perhaps more Douglas Jardine? The slippery customer who tamed Bradman but managed to blame everyone else for his actions?FrankBooth said:Comparing Botham to Johnson seems a tad generous for the former PM. No-one would doubt beefy's credential as a legend of the game. I'd have thought Phil Tufnell would be a better one.
Given Starmer's historic achievement in the election, gaining 211 seats(!), the only cricketing comparison that seems reasonable would be Donald Bradman. Are the Tories set to try bodyline tactics as the only way to undo the great man?0 -
"He's not as much of a moron as he sounds" is probably the best case a Trump advocate can make right now.ydoethur said:This is what conservatives with functioning brains think of Trump's campaign performance:
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/08/25/trump-harris-2024-election/74863488007/
Trump's biggest hurdle is not President Joe Biden, Vice President Harris or her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
Trump's biggest obstacle is Trump.
I've listened to Trump speak hundreds of times. Reporting on a news conference is a nightmare because Trump cannot commit to the self-discipline that it takes to prepare ahead of time, pare his thoughts to a handful of strong talking points and then cogently answer questions on what his administration would look like.
Trump insists on coming across like a moron. I'm not saying he is one, but he sounds like one. His thoughts and ideas flow with a stream of consciousness that makes William Faulkner look like a children's nursery rhyme. He jumps from idea to idea like a hip-hop artist doing a break dancing routine at the Olympic level.
As a result, he's unable to make a strong case for anything − and politics is nothing if not the art of persuasion − even though he actually has the record to show he accomplished good things for America during his previous administration.
And mark - this is one of his *supporters* speaking.
(The reality is that he's always been like this- but the pace and pizzazz that used to cover it has gone.)0 -
"August 2024 Verified Voter Omnibus - Echelon Insights" https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/aug2024-verified-voter-omnibus/HYUFD said:A new Echelon national poll meanwhile which finished polling yesterday has Harris and Trump tied at 48% each after the Democratic convention and Kennedy Jr left the race and endorsed Trump
"August 2024 Verified Voter Omnibus - Echelon Insights" https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/aug2024-verified-voterromnibus/0 -
I agree there's 45% of typical turnout voters that support Trump.Malmesbury said:
The problem is that the apparent percentage of True Believers in the portion of the electorate that is likely to vote, is high. Maybe 45% or so.RochdalePioneers said:
This is the argument I have made for why she will win big:ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.
Trump is bonkers and getting more so
Being clearly behind Harris and getting more behind will drive him more bonkers
The more bonkers he gets, the more behind he gets. Rinse and repeat
The True Believers will vote for him. However insane he is. But only they will...
The landslide scenario is one where turnout is disproportionately high in demographics that do not typically vote as much. If it came to pass you'd probably see Democrat vote share underestimated by polls. Let's call in an enthusiasm gap.
I also note Nate Silver's polling average has Harris 4.1% clear of Trump (who is on c.45%). If that trends up further to 5-6% and is compounded by a scenario where polls underestimating Democrats on average, then landslide style results start to come into play.
Not my base case, but not inconceivable.0 -
This is the EMA for Harris's lead since Biden stepped down.Barnesian said:
And a new Kaplan survey on the 24th has Harris at 52% to Trump's 45%HYUFD said:A new Echelon national poll meanwhile which finished polling yesterday has Harris and Trump tied at 48% each after the Democratic convention and Kennedy Jr left the race and endorsed Trump
"August 2024 Verified Voter Omnibus - Echelon Insights" https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/aug2024-verified-voterromnibus/
0 -
If you can't use s apostrophe s for Harris's, when can you use s apostrophe s?
It definitely used to be a grammatically correct thing, but teachers like @ydoethur seem determined to abolish it for some reason0 -
What we really need here for Johnson is someone who was an effective (if unpleasant) winner who, by the way they won, made things impossible for their successors.ydoethur said:
Perhaps more Douglas Jardine? The slippery customer who tamed Bradman but managed to blame everyone else for his actions?FrankBooth said:Comparing Botham to Johnson seems a tad generous for the former PM. No-one would doubt beefy's credential as a legend of the game. I'd have thought Phil Tufnell would be a better one.
Given Starmer's historic achievement in the election, gaining 211 seats(!), the only cricketing comparison that seems reasonable would be Donald Bradman. Are the Tories set to try bodyline tactics as the only way to undo the great man?
Tricky.0 -
I pronounce it Harris's not Harris' so that's how I write it.BlancheLivermore said:If you can't use s apostrophe s for Harris's, when can you use s apostrophe s?
It definitely used to be a thing, but teachers like @ydoethur seem determined to abolish it for some reason7 -
-
The Kansas/Arkansas pronounciation difference is known to Americans. I think it's the US equivalent of something like Slough/Edinburgh or Cirencester/Gloucester. Perhaps some American PBers could enlighten us.williamglenn said:
I remember a British political pundit trying to sound very well-informed about America pronouncing it “Are Kansas”.rottenborough said:
Arkansas elected Bill Clinton as Governor.ydoethur said:Couple of possible trading bets:
Missouri. Reddish state. Abortion is on the ballot. The Republican Senate candidate is leading the anti-abortion charge. If Harris is really starting to pull ten points clear it might come into play.
And for a crazy left-field bet:
Arkansas. Arkansas's Republican-packed Supreme Court has just backed the Secretary of State's procedural dismissal of a ballot on abortion. This was a popular ballot - it exceeded the threshold of signature by 12% without breaking a sweat - and the Republican hierarchy have foolishly been gloating that they introduced and have now kept a total ban on abortion.
Even with that, if Arkansas goes blue it will be a colossal landslide for Harris, but it may come in in price.0 -
This is all getting silly now. But anyway:
Cameron = David Gower
Theresa May = Geoff Boycott
Boris Johnson = Phil Tufnell
Rishi Sunak = Mark Ramprakash/Mark Lathwell
Liz Truss? Okay I'm stumped.1 -
This is an astonishing but well researched story on Daily Kos: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/26/2265800/-Trump-raises-less-money-than-Harris-and-how-he-spends-it-is-a-mystery?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
2/3 of all the money spent by the Trump campaign in 2020 was to one company called AMMC. It is a Delaware LLC and protected by the privacy laws of that state. The first managing director of that company was Lara Trump, now in charge of cleaning out the funds of the GOP. The money received in 2020 by the company was over $500m!! It is not obvious what, if anything, that money was spent on.
In 2024 the same thing is happening again. Trump is taking in less than Harris but the majority of it is going to AMMC and then simply vanishing.
It looks and smells like blatant fraud on a truly epic scale. Again.2 -
.
Jardine isn’t a terrible comparison, then.Stuartinromford said:
What we really need here for Johnson is someone who was an effective (if unpleasant) winner who, by the way they won, made things impossible for their successors.ydoethur said:
Perhaps more Douglas Jardine? The slippery customer who tamed Bradman but managed to blame everyone else for his actions?FrankBooth said:Comparing Botham to Johnson seems a tad generous for the former PM. No-one would doubt beefy's credential as a legend of the game. I'd have thought Phil Tufnell would be a better one.
Given Starmer's historic achievement in the election, gaining 211 seats(!), the only cricketing comparison that seems reasonable would be Donald Bradman. Are the Tories set to try bodyline tactics as the only way to undo the great man?
Tricky.
His tactics got the rules changed to ban them, and England didn’t win again for two full decades.1 -
It’s not astonishing; it’s almost predictable.DavidL said:This is an astonishing but well researched story on Daily Kos: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/26/2265800/-Trump-raises-less-money-than-Harris-and-how-he-spends-it-is-a-mystery?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
2/3 of all the money spent by the Trump campaign in 2020 was to one company called AMMC. It is a Delaware LLC and protected by the privacy laws of that state. The first managing director of that company was Lara Trump, now in charge of cleaning out the funds of the GOP. The money received in 2020 by the company was over $500m!! It is not obvious what, if anything, that money was spent on.
In 2024 the same thing is happening again. Trump is taking in less than Harris but the majority of it is going to AMMC and then simply vanishing.
It looks and smells like blatant fraud on a truly epic scale. Again.
This time round he more of it’s going in legal fees.0 -
Yes, and it is a point I've previously made against Trump's detractors when they attack him over the shark dilemma and other irrelevancies. It is important to distinguish genuine brain freezes and fades from what is just, and always has been, Trump's schtick.Stuartinromford said:
"He's not as much of a moron as he sounds" is probably the best case a Trump advocate can make right now.ydoethur said:This is what conservatives with functioning brains think of Trump's campaign performance:
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/08/25/trump-harris-2024-election/74863488007/
Trump's biggest hurdle is not President Joe Biden, Vice President Harris or her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
Trump's biggest obstacle is Trump.
I've listened to Trump speak hundreds of times. Reporting on a news conference is a nightmare because Trump cannot commit to the self-discipline that it takes to prepare ahead of time, pare his thoughts to a handful of strong talking points and then cogently answer questions on what his administration would look like.
Trump insists on coming across like a moron. I'm not saying he is one, but he sounds like one. His thoughts and ideas flow with a stream of consciousness that makes William Faulkner look like a children's nursery rhyme. He jumps from idea to idea like a hip-hop artist doing a break dancing routine at the Olympic level.
As a result, he's unable to make a strong case for anything − and politics is nothing if not the art of persuasion − even though he actually has the record to show he accomplished good things for America during his previous administration.
And mark - this is one of his *supporters* speaking.
(The reality is that he's always been like this- but the pace and pizzazz that used to cover it has gone.)0 -
Starmer = Chris TavareFrankBooth said:This is all getting silly now. But anyway:
Cameron = David Gower
Theresa May = Geoff Boycott
Boris Johnson = Phil Tufnell
Rishi Sunak = Mark Ramprakash/Mark Lathwell
Liz Truss? Okay I'm stumped.
Truss = Shaun Udal1 -
$18m has gone to a company specifically set up for that purpose referred to in the article. No wonder most people are increasingly reluctant to contribute to his campaign.Nigelb said:
It’s not astonishing; it’s almost predictable.DavidL said:This is an astonishing but well researched story on Daily Kos: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/26/2265800/-Trump-raises-less-money-than-Harris-and-how-he-spends-it-is-a-mystery?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
2/3 of all the money spent by the Trump campaign in 2020 was to one company called AMMC. It is a Delaware LLC and protected by the privacy laws of that state. The first managing director of that company was Lara Trump, now in charge of cleaning out the funds of the GOP. The money received in 2020 by the company was over $500m!! It is not obvious what, if anything, that money was spent on.
In 2024 the same thing is happening again. Trump is taking in less than Harris but the majority of it is going to AMMC and then simply vanishing.
It looks and smells like blatant fraud on a truly epic scale. Again.
This time round he more of it’s going in legal fees.0 -
- after dominating all opposition, finally gets promotion to the big time, and proves a massive disappointment.Nigelb said:
Hick ?The_Woodpecker said:
Or Beefy??TheScreamingEagles said:
Wait until the morning, I suspect my comparison will be controversial.ydoethur said:
Ollie Robinson? Starts promisingly but then underlying issues mean everyone hates him and he gets dropped for inferior models like Potts?TheScreamingEagles said:
The morning thread is cricket themed as I compare Starmer to a test cricketer.ydoethur said:
And, of course, next month we have sentencing in New York and the appeal of his fraud conviction.ydoethur said:Possibly. Or a harbinger.
The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.3 -
@bpolitics
Donald Trump says he would give Elon Musk a cabinet job, adding that that it was likelier that he’d involve him as a federal cost-cutting consultant
https://x.com/bpolitics/status/18281492832682967671 -
Brian Lara?Stuartinromford said:
What we really need here for Johnson is someone who was an effective (if unpleasant) winner who, by the way they won, made things impossible for their successors.ydoethur said:
Perhaps more Douglas Jardine? The slippery customer who tamed Bradman but managed to blame everyone else for his actions?FrankBooth said:Comparing Botham to Johnson seems a tad generous for the former PM. No-one would doubt beefy's credential as a legend of the game. I'd have thought Phil Tufnell would be a better one.
Given Starmer's historic achievement in the election, gaining 211 seats(!), the only cricketing comparison that seems reasonable would be Donald Bradman. Are the Tories set to try bodyline tactics as the only way to undo the great man?
Tricky.2 -
That sounds unlikely. Maybe he was caught out by an awkward line break or was trying to be funny but anyone who grew up watching Dick Dastardly (Wacky Races) would be familiar with the Arkansas Chuggabug.williamglenn said:
I remember a British political pundit trying to sound very well-informed about America pronouncing it “Are Kansas”.rottenborough said:
Arkansas elected Bill Clinton as Governor.ydoethur said:Couple of possible trading bets:
Missouri. Reddish state. Abortion is on the ballot. The Republican Senate candidate is leading the anti-abortion charge. If Harris is really starting to pull ten points clear it might come into play.
And for a crazy left-field bet:
Arkansas. Arkansas's Republican-packed Supreme Court has just backed the Secretary of State's procedural dismissal of a ballot on abortion. This was a popular ballot - it exceeded the threshold of signature by 12% without breaking a sweat - and the Republican hierarchy have foolishly been gloating that they introduced and have now kept a total ban on abortion.
Even with that, if Arkansas goes blue it will be a colossal landslide for Harris, but it may come in in price.1 -
Harsh on Udal (yes, I am biased). Actually, the Seldon serialisation in The Times has nailed it. All Truss was missing was the temperament, and that was the most important thing of all. Rare to get that failing in cricket, though Pietersen came close.Fairliered said:
Starmer = Chris TavareFrankBooth said:This is all getting silly now. But anyway:
Cameron = David Gower
Theresa May = Geoff Boycott
Boris Johnson = Phil Tufnell
Rishi Sunak = Mark Ramprakash/Mark Lathwell
Liz Truss? Okay I'm stumped.
Truss = Shaun Udal0 -
FRIDAY: Arizona Police Association endorses Trump over Harris for president
MONDAY: Arizona Police Association endorses Gallego over Lake for Senate
https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1828144617818333491
0 -
It is very easy to believe there are two sets of polls in the US: 1) those aimed at trying to assess the true state of opinion in the country and 2) those aimed at showing a fight to the death between two equal opponents. Option 2) will continue as it sells better - or at least until it is too far adrift to look credible. At that point, the way to sell will switch to chronicling the crazy rantings of somebody circling the drain.Barnesian said:
This is the EMA for Harris's lead since Biden stepped down.Barnesian said:
And a new Kaplan survey on the 24th has Harris at 52% to Trump's 45%HYUFD said:A new Echelon national poll meanwhile which finished polling yesterday has Harris and Trump tied at 48% each after the Democratic convention and Kennedy Jr left the race and endorsed Trump
"August 2024 Verified Voter Omnibus - Echelon Insights" https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/aug2024-verified-voterromnibus/
Option 2) will also sell, probably better: with the morbid fascination of former supporters being fed along with the unalloyed joy of Never Trumpers.0 -
It's quite odd that a police association would endorse a candidate at all.Nigelb said:FRIDAY: Arizona Police Association endorses Trump over Harris for president
MONDAY: Arizona Police Association endorses Gallego over Lake for Senate
https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/18281446178183334914 -
We support nutters!Nigelb said:FRIDAY: Arizona Police Association endorses Trump over Harris for president
MONDAY: Arizona Police Association endorses Gallego over Lake for Senate
https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1828144617818333491
No, not somebody THAT nutty!1 -
That sounds more like Gordon Brown! Did Seldon think that was her one weakness?Stuartinromford said:
Harsh on Udal (yes, I am biased). Actually, the Seldon serialisation in The Times has nailed it. All Truss was missing was the temperament, and that was the most important thing of all. Rare to get that failing in cricket, though Pietersen came close.Fairliered said:
Starmer = Chris TavareFrankBooth said:This is all getting silly now. But anyway:
Cameron = David Gower
Theresa May = Geoff Boycott
Boris Johnson = Phil Tufnell
Rishi Sunak = Mark Ramprakash/Mark Lathwell
Liz Truss? Okay I'm stumped.
Truss = Shaun Udal0 -
Fair cop.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
It's quite odd that a police association would endorse a candidate at all.Nigelb said:FRIDAY: Arizona Police Association endorses Trump over Harris for president
MONDAY: Arizona Police Association endorses Gallego over Lake for Senate
https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1828144617818333491
Or not...0 -
It doesn't seem to have been that hard for Russia to source Western components via third countries. This is disappointing, to put it mildly.DavidL said:
The evidence that they are running out of modern armaments because of sanctions etc is...mixed.Nigelb said:The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 236 missiles and UAVs today, including:
-3 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile
-6 Iskander-M / KN-23 ballistic missiles
-77 Kh-101 cruise missiles
-28 Kalibr cruise missiles
-3 Kh-22 cruise missiles
-10 Kh-59 / Kh-69 air-to-surface missiles from Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft
-109 Shahed-131 / 136
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1828109957356487086
The Ukrainians find it exasperating, to say the least.
And then the US doesn't want them to shoot back.0 -
Arthur Harris dragged in planes from everywhere he could in order to launch the first 'Thousand Bomber' raid. He used coastal command, training groups, and many pretty much obsolete types. It was a one off for a longish time as the RAF build up capacity.LostPassword said:
It doesn't seem to have been that hard for Russia to source Western components via third countries. This is disappointing, to put it mildly.DavidL said:
The evidence that they are running out of modern armaments because of sanctions etc is...mixed.Nigelb said:The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 236 missiles and UAVs today, including:
-3 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile
-6 Iskander-M / KN-23 ballistic missiles
-77 Kh-101 cruise missiles
-28 Kalibr cruise missiles
-3 Kh-22 cruise missiles
-10 Kh-59 / Kh-69 air-to-surface missiles from Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft
-109 Shahed-131 / 136
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1828109957356487086
The Ukrainians find it exasperating, to say the least.
And then the US doesn't want them to shoot back.
I get the sense that this is a one off from Putin in a similar mould. Surely they would do this every day if they could?2 -
Interesting changes on Nate's Silver Bulletin.
Harris is +1.8 over the last week nationally, but only +0.2 in PA. Pennsylvania doesn't want to swing.
This means that AV and NV are nearly more likely wins for Harris than PA at the moment, with leads respectively of 1.5, 1.3 and 1.7
It's not obvious which states the increase in Harris's lead is coming from. None of the battleground states have Harris gaining more than 1.1, so presumably she's picking up votes disproportionally in safe and/no-one hope states - though that may help down ballot races.0 -
Truss = Tony PigottFairliered said:
Starmer = Chris TavareFrankBooth said:This is all getting silly now. But anyway:
Cameron = David Gower
Theresa May = Geoff Boycott
Boris Johnson = Phil Tufnell
Rishi Sunak = Mark Ramprakash/Mark Lathwell
Liz Truss? Okay I'm stumped.
Truss = Shaun Udal0 -
'Long Boris' being responsible for the Tories election defeat is a PB centrist dad myth, to avoid facing the fact that their much heralded 'grown ups' managed to recover control of the Tory Party and promptly buggered it up. Johnson didn't make it impossible for his successors - they both had a fair crack of the whip. Truss fluffed her chance to turn things around, and Sunk never tried to turn things around.Stuartinromford said:
What we really need here for Johnson is someone who was an effective (if unpleasant) winner who, by the way they won, made things impossible for their successors.ydoethur said:
Perhaps more Douglas Jardine? The slippery customer who tamed Bradman but managed to blame everyone else for his actions?FrankBooth said:Comparing Botham to Johnson seems a tad generous for the former PM. No-one would doubt beefy's credential as a legend of the game. I'd have thought Phil Tufnell would be a better one.
Given Starmer's historic achievement in the election, gaining 211 seats(!), the only cricketing comparison that seems reasonable would be Donald Bradman. Are the Tories set to try bodyline tactics as the only way to undo the great man?
Tricky.3 -
Darren Pattinson?Alphabet_Soup said:
Truss = Tony PigottFairliered said:
Starmer = Chris TavareFrankBooth said:This is all getting silly now. But anyway:
Cameron = David Gower
Theresa May = Geoff Boycott
Boris Johnson = Phil Tufnell
Rishi Sunak = Mark Ramprakash/Mark Lathwell
Liz Truss? Okay I'm stumped.
Truss = Shaun Udal0 -
https://www.gumtree.com/p/nissan/nissan-qashqai-hatchback-2010-manual-1461-cc-5-doors/1485198026
David Davis campaigning to abolish our unfair extradition treaty with the US in memory of Mike Lynch.
It's an important campaign (one that Lynch himself was planning when he died) and frankly a brave one. We'll have matured as a nation when it succeeds.10 -
.
Don’t forget that in the US they also elect the leaders of local law enforcement.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
It's quite odd that a police association would endorse a candidate at all.Nigelb said:FRIDAY: Arizona Police Association endorses Trump over Harris for president
MONDAY: Arizona Police Association endorses Gallego over Lake for Senate
https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1828144617818333491
It’s a very different setup.
Seems to be an umbrella union/ lobby group for a large number of local police associations.
https://azpolice.org/about-us/
We are a 501(c)(5) non-profit public service organization whose mission is to represent the collective interest of our member associations in matters involving legal perspectives, compensation, benefits, and retirement security.0 -
Pretty much. And unlike Brown, her temperament was so flaky that it all blew up in a couple of months, whereas Brown kept a show of sorts on the road for a couple of years.FrankBooth said:
That sounds more like Gordon Brown! Did Seldon think that was her one weakness?Stuartinromford said:
Harsh on Udal (yes, I am biased). Actually, the Seldon serialisation in The Times has nailed it. All Truss was missing was the temperament, and that was the most important thing of all. Rare to get that failing in cricket, though Pietersen came close.Fairliered said:
Starmer = Chris TavareFrankBooth said:This is all getting silly now. But anyway:
Cameron = David Gower
Theresa May = Geoff Boycott
Boris Johnson = Phil Tufnell
Rishi Sunak = Mark Ramprakash/Mark Lathwell
Liz Truss? Okay I'm stumped.
Truss = Shaun Udal0 -
They were all shit, and they were all in his administration.Luckyguy1983 said:
'Long Boris' being responsible for the Tories election defeat is a PB centrist dad myth, to avoid facing the fact that their much heralded 'grown ups' managed to recover control of the Tory Party and promptly buggered it up. Johnson didn't make it impossible for his successors - they both had a fair crack of the whip. Truss fluffed her chance to turn things around, and Sunk never tried to turn things around.Stuartinromford said:
What we really need here for Johnson is someone who was an effective (if unpleasant) winner who, by the way they won, made things impossible for their successors.ydoethur said:
Perhaps more Douglas Jardine? The slippery customer who tamed Bradman but managed to blame everyone else for his actions?FrankBooth said:Comparing Botham to Johnson seems a tad generous for the former PM. No-one would doubt beefy's credential as a legend of the game. I'd have thought Phil Tufnell would be a better one.
Given Starmer's historic achievement in the election, gaining 211 seats(!), the only cricketing comparison that seems reasonable would be Donald Bradman. Are the Tories set to try bodyline tactics as the only way to undo the great man?
Tricky.1 -
Note for Barty.
3 things that slow the pace of epigenetic aging, from my conversation with
@prof_horvath, the pioneer of these clocks
—Exercise
—More vegetables in diet
—GLP-1 drugs
In the new Ground Truths podcast (link in profile)
"Have these findings changed your diet or made you exercise more or anything like that?"
Steve Horvath:
"So I eat a lot of frozen vegetables. My freezer is full of frozen vegetables."
https://x.com/EricTopol/status/1828158492441825555
0 -
Yes. I haven't added up the numbers, but I think the totals suggest that Russia is able to produce a limited number of missiles per day. Something like 3. So they save them up to use in large enough numbers to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences.turbotubbs said:
Arthur Harris dragged in planes from everywhere he could in order to launch the first 'Thousand Bomber' raid. He used coastal command, training groups, and many pretty much obsolete types. It was a one off for a longish time as the RAF build up capacity.LostPassword said:
It doesn't seem to have been that hard for Russia to source Western components via third countries. This is disappointing, to put it mildly.DavidL said:
The evidence that they are running out of modern armaments because of sanctions etc is...mixed.Nigelb said:The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 236 missiles and UAVs today, including:
-3 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile
-6 Iskander-M / KN-23 ballistic missiles
-77 Kh-101 cruise missiles
-28 Kalibr cruise missiles
-3 Kh-22 cruise missiles
-10 Kh-59 / Kh-69 air-to-surface missiles from Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft
-109 Shahed-131 / 136
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1828109957356487086
The Ukrainians find it exasperating, to say the least.
And then the US doesn't want them to shoot back.
I get the sense that this is a one off from Putin in a similar mould. Surely they would do this every day if they could?
But the ones they are producing contain Western components. If sanctions were effective then it's possible Russia wouldn't be able to produce any missiles at all.
I'm not sure what the current Western production rates of long range weapons are. I think it's still zero for Storm Shadow and zero for ATACMs, and it's zero for anything we give them that Ukraine are allowed to use on targets deep inside Russia.
Hopefully Ukraine will be able to soon produce lots of its own long-range weapons, such as the new missile-drone.0 -
Fostering talent wasn't a Boris strong point. Truss and Sunak both followed him in the same vein - cliquey talent-lean cabinets.Nigelb said:
They were all shit, and they were all in his administration.Luckyguy1983 said:
'Long Boris' being responsible for the Tories election defeat is a PB centrist dad myth, to avoid facing the fact that their much heralded 'grown ups' managed to recover control of the Tory Party and promptly buggered it up. Johnson didn't make it impossible for his successors - they both had a fair crack of the whip. Truss fluffed her chance to turn things around, and Sunk never tried to turn things around.Stuartinromford said:
What we really need here for Johnson is someone who was an effective (if unpleasant) winner who, by the way they won, made things impossible for their successors.ydoethur said:
Perhaps more Douglas Jardine? The slippery customer who tamed Bradman but managed to blame everyone else for his actions?FrankBooth said:Comparing Botham to Johnson seems a tad generous for the former PM. No-one would doubt beefy's credential as a legend of the game. I'd have thought Phil Tufnell would be a better one.
Given Starmer's historic achievement in the election, gaining 211 seats(!), the only cricketing comparison that seems reasonable would be Donald Bradman. Are the Tories set to try bodyline tactics as the only way to undo the great man?
Tricky.0 -
More than one syllable in the base word, so you are correct.Barnesian said:
I pronounce it Harris's not Harris' so that's how I write it.BlancheLivermore said:If you can't use s apostrophe s for Harris's, when can you use s apostrophe s?
It definitely used to be a thing, but teachers like @ydoethur seem determined to abolish it for some reason0 -
I think we should start a PB tradition of principled posts accompanied with our gumtree shoppingLuckyguy1983 said:https://www.gumtree.com/p/nissan/nissan-qashqai-hatchback-2010-manual-1461-cc-5-doors/1485198026
David Davis campaigning to abolish our unfair extradition treaty with the US in memory of Mike Lynch.
It's an important campaign (one that Lynch himself was planning when he died) and frankly a brave one. We'll have matured as a nation when it succeeds.
https://www.gumtree.com/p/hobbies-collectibles/new-big-set-of-stamps-russian-warship-go-f-k-ukrposhta-ukraine/14753527635 -
Republicans apparently hate dogs as well as cats.
https://x.com/Eric_Schmitt/status/1828088257147752656
Unless they’re pitching for Leon’s vote, I don’t think this is a winning message.0 -
Very bizarre, I've no idea how that happened!Eabhal said:
I think we should start a PB tradition of principled posts accompanied with our gumtree shoppingLuckyguy1983 said:
David Davis campaigning to abolish our unfair extradition treaty with the US in memory of Mike Lynch.
It's an important campaign (one that Lynch himself was planning when he died) and frankly a brave one. We'll have matured as a nation when it succeeds.
https://www.gumtree.com/p/hobbies-collectibles/new-big-set-of-stamps-russian-warship-go-f-k-ukrposhta-ukraine/1475352763
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS6A5k8uTp0 - proper link.
0 -
Prisoners should have the vote!
https://www.gumtree.com/p/hobbies-collectibles/de-havilland-tiger-moth-tail-skid/14034639061 -
Interesting item - don't agree with the cause though.Eabhal said:Prisoners should have the vote!
https://www.gumtree.com/p/hobbies-collectibles/de-havilland-tiger-moth-tail-skid/14034639060 -
He gave a long interview to the BBC shortly after returning to the UK, during which he talked about it in some detail, emphasising that had he not been very wealthy, it would have been virtually impossible to afford the legal representation necessary to fight the charges,Luckyguy1983 said:https://www.gumtree.com/p/nissan/nissan-qashqai-hatchback-2010-manual-1461-cc-5-doors/1485198026
David Davis campaigning to abolish our unfair extradition treaty with the US in memory of Mike Lynch.
It's an important campaign (one that Lynch himself was planning when he died) and frankly a brave one. We'll have matured as a nation when it succeeds.
The US criminal justice system is even more flawed than ours, and the essentially zero standard of evidence required for extradition, to a country where it’s hard to get a fair trial without bankrupting yourself, was a manifest injustice back when the treaty was agreed.6 -
Would you say Dickens’ books or Dickens’s books?Carnyx said:
More than one syllable in the base word, so you are correct.Barnesian said:
I pronounce it Harris's not Harris' so that's how I write it.BlancheLivermore said:If you can't use s apostrophe s for Harris's, when can you use s apostrophe s?
It definitely used to be a thing, but teachers like @ydoethur seem determined to abolish it for some reason0 -
?Carnyx said:
More than one syllable in the base word, so you are correct.Barnesian said:
I pronounce it Harris's not Harris' so that's how I write it.BlancheLivermore said:If you can't use s apostrophe s for Harris's, when can you use s apostrophe s?
It definitely used to be a thing, but teachers like @ydoethur seem determined to abolish it for some reason
Surely nobody writes
Roger Waters's album
Or
Moses's tablets
I agree with Barnesian - it follows pronunciation. Though some people write Harris'
0 -
Dickins cider again.williamglenn said:
Would you say Dickens’ books or Dickens’s books?Carnyx said:
More than one syllable in the base word, so you are correct.Barnesian said:
I pronounce it Harris's not Harris' so that's how I write it.BlancheLivermore said:If you can't use s apostrophe s for Harris's, when can you use s apostrophe s?
It definitely used to be a thing, but teachers like @ydoethur seem determined to abolish it for some reason1 -
.
Makes a good case for Dickens’s.dixiedean said:
Dickins cider again.williamglenn said:
Would you say Dickens’ books or Dickens’s books?Carnyx said:
More than one syllable in the base word, so you are correct.Barnesian said:
I pronounce it Harris's not Harris' so that's how I write it.BlancheLivermore said:If you can't use s apostrophe s for Harris's, when can you use s apostrophe s?
It definitely used to be a thing, but teachers like @ydoethur seem determined to abolish it for some reason0 -
Any Vera fans on PB?0
-
For those of you struggling with the possessive, I give you BBC Bitesize Year 3 punctuation:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/zx9ydxs#zkqmfdm1 -
It's the older rule. Can't go wrong with an older rule if in serious doubt. Nobody can claim it's wrong.kamski said:
?Carnyx said:
More than one syllable in the base word, so you are correct.Barnesian said:
I pronounce it Harris's not Harris' so that's how I write it.BlancheLivermore said:If you can't use s apostrophe s for Harris's, when can you use s apostrophe s?
It definitely used to be a thing, but teachers like @ydoethur seem determined to abolish it for some reason
Surely nobody writes
Roger Waters's album
Or
Moses's tablets
I agree with Barnesian - it follows pronunciation. Though some people write Harris'0 -
Here's the link again. Well worth 24 minutes of your time.Nigelb said:
He gave a long interview to the BBC shortly after returning to the UK, during which he talked about it in some detail, emphasising that had he not been very wealthy, it would have been virtually impossible to afford the legal representation necessary to fight the charges,Luckyguy1983 said:https://www.gumtree.com/p/nissan/nissan-qashqai-hatchback-2010-manual-1461-cc-5-doors/1485198026
David Davis campaigning to abolish our unfair extradition treaty with the US in memory of Mike Lynch.
It's an important campaign (one that Lynch himself was planning when he died) and frankly a brave one. We'll have matured as a nation when it succeeds.
The US criminal justice system is even more flawed than ours, and the essentially zero standard of evidence required for extradition, to a country where it’s hard to get a fair trial without bankrupting yourself, was a manifest injustice back when the treaty was agreed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0jkc9l90 -
Interesting.
"One in eight people diagnosed with dementia ‘may have liver disease instead’
Cognitive symptoms are similar to those caused by hepatic encephalopathy, which is caused by cirrhosis and is treatable"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/26/one-in-eight-diagnosed-dementia-may-have-liver-disease/1 -
It's a question of euphony and sometimes subjective.Benpointer said:For those of you struggling with the possessive, I give you BBC Bitesize Year 3 punctuation:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/zx9ydxs#zkqmfdm
The BBC is wrong about "Iris's cat" imho.
But "Mr Daniels' dog bit Mr Roberts's cat" is acceptable, and illustrates the problem. It's what most people would say.
1 -
Am always astonished how the murders in Northumberland tend to happen in Bamburgh or Hexham.Andy_JS said:Any Vera fans on PB?
Rather than a crackhouse in Blyth or a dodgy boozer in Prudhoe.
Went passed a taped off section by a scenic part of the Wansbeck a couple of months ago on the way to work. Disappointingly it turned out to be Vera filming.3
