This poll feels like an outlier – politicalbetting.com
This poll feels like an outlier – politicalbetting.com
Vice President Harris holds a 7-point edge over former President Trump nationally in a new poll.https://t.co/JGd8qgiG0X
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The thing is, we keep waiting for something else crazy to happen, but at the moment all the crazy is coming from Trump. He rings Fox News, randomly dials buttons on his phone while speaking, rambles weirdly about Harris' race in an highly racist way to an audience of non-white journalists and puts out an AI altered photo that appears to show him humping a lion.
What if the crazy gets worse? We might be entering feedback loop territory where his mental health problems become more acute the further he falls behind - and the more acute they become, the further he falls.
That’s a pretty wide error bar…
If it’s true, then barring some very regional effects (winning 100% of California) she is looking at an EC win.
We need polling in the swing states. And states that are one edge of being swing states. Florida in contention?
So not truly awful, but not exactly an A rated pollster.
https://www.fdu.edu/news/fdu-poll-finds-race-and-gender-push-harris-above-trump-nationally/
Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, August 23, 2024 – Voters nationally give Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris an edge over former President Donald Trump in November’s election by a seven-point margin (50 to 43), but race and gender remains central to the vote. When voters are made to think about the race or gender of the candidates, Harris’ lead grows substantially; when they’re not, support is essentially tied. Harris is also helped by strong support among the slightly less than half of men who reject traditionally masculine identities. Trump’s strongest support is among men who hold traditionally masculine identities, while women and other men strongly favor Harris.
The survey was conducted between August 17 and August 20, 2024, using a voter list of registered voters nationwide carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey.
Respondents were contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 801 registered voters nationally. 520 of the surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews to landlines (30%) and cellphones (70%) and the remainder (281) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/08/25/trump-harris-2024-election/74863488007/
Trump's biggest hurdle is not President Joe Biden, Vice President Harris or her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
Trump's biggest obstacle is Trump.
I've listened to Trump speak hundreds of times. Reporting on a news conference is a nightmare because Trump cannot commit to the self-discipline that it takes to prepare ahead of time, pare his thoughts to a handful of strong talking points and then cogently answer questions on what his administration would look like.
Trump insists on coming across like a moron. I'm not saying he is one, but he sounds like one. His thoughts and ideas flow with a stream of consciousness that makes William Faulkner look like a children's nursery rhyme. He jumps from idea to idea like a hip-hop artist doing a break dancing routine at the Olympic level.
As a result, he's unable to make a strong case for anything − and politics is nothing if not the art of persuasion − even though he actually has the record to show he accomplished good things for America during his previous administration.
And mark - this is one of his *supporters* speaking.
The one...
The only...
The greatest ever batsman...
CHRIS MARTIN?!!!!
-3 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile
-6 Iskander-M / KN-23 ballistic missiles
-77 Kh-101 cruise missiles
-28 Kalibr cruise missiles
-3 Kh-22 cruise missiles
-10 Kh-59 / Kh-69 air-to-surface missiles from Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft
-109 Shahed-131 / 136
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1828109957356487086
Overpromoted serial shagger occasionally capable of extraordinary feats of inspiration, but too lazy to do the hard yards, totally inept as a leader and only ever talks or thinks about himself.
Missouri. Reddish state. Abortion is on the ballot. The Republican Senate candidate is leading the anti-abortion charge. If Harris is really starting to pull ten points clear it might come into play.
And for a crazy left-field bet:
Arkansas. Arkansas's Republican-packed Supreme Court has just backed the Secretary of State's procedural dismissal of a ballot on abortion. This was a popular ballot - it exceeded the threshold of signature by 12% without breaking a sweat - and the Republican hierarchy have foolishly been gloating that they introduced and have now kept a total ban on abortion.
Even with that, if Arkansas goes blue it will be a colossal landslide for Harris, but it may come in in price.
But some hit the power stations and caused black outs. There was something that was hit in Odessa that caused a massive plume of smoke. A price they have to pay for 2,000 sq km of Kursk negotiating turf.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/08/us-grid-adds-batteries-at-10x-the-rate-of-natural-gas-in-first-half-of-2024/
Solar and battery build out continues to accelerate in the US.
Note that a big chunk of their attack was the Iranian drones - big model aircraft essentially, with no terrain following or guidance systems. Which is why they are shot down in large numbers.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
Could Labour supporters please stop screaming “But the Tories did it!!!”. Yes, we know. And you told us all it was an outrage they did it. And you also told us that was why we all had to vote for Keir Starmer, because he’d make sure it stopped.
Trump is bonkers and getting more so
Being clearly behind Harris and getting more behind will drive him more bonkers
The more bonkers he gets, the more behind he gets. Rinse and repeat
The True Believers will vote for him. However insane he is. But only they will...
That was a long, long time ago.
You have to admire the outcome even if you have the boring process?
Given Starmer's historic achievement in the election, gaining 211 seats(!), the only cricketing comparison that seems reasonable would be Donald Bradman. Are the Tories set to try bodyline tactics as the only way to undo the great man?
"August 2024 Verified Voter Omnibus - Echelon Insights" https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/aug2024-verified-voterromnibus/
(The reality is that he's always been like this- but the pace and pizzazz that used to cover it has gone.)
The landslide scenario is one where turnout is disproportionately high in demographics that do not typically vote as much. If it came to pass you'd probably see Democrat vote share underestimated by polls. Let's call in an enthusiasm gap.
I also note Nate Silver's polling average has Harris 4.1% clear of Trump (who is on c.45%). If that trends up further to 5-6% and is compounded by a scenario where polls underestimating Democrats on average, then landslide style results start to come into play.
Not my base case, but not inconceivable.
It definitely used to be a grammatically correct thing, but teachers like @ydoethur seem determined to abolish it for some reason
Tricky.
I only ask, because who else would describe a B/C grade as “not exactly an A”
Cameron = David Gower
Theresa May = Geoff Boycott
Boris Johnson = Phil Tufnell
Rishi Sunak = Mark Ramprakash/Mark Lathwell
Liz Truss? Okay I'm stumped.
2/3 of all the money spent by the Trump campaign in 2020 was to one company called AMMC. It is a Delaware LLC and protected by the privacy laws of that state. The first managing director of that company was Lara Trump, now in charge of cleaning out the funds of the GOP. The money received in 2020 by the company was over $500m!! It is not obvious what, if anything, that money was spent on.
In 2024 the same thing is happening again. Trump is taking in less than Harris but the majority of it is going to AMMC and then simply vanishing.
It looks and smells like blatant fraud on a truly epic scale. Again.
His tactics got the rules changed to ban them, and England didn’t win again for two full decades.
This time round he more of it’s going in legal fees.
Truss = Shaun Udal
Donald Trump says he would give Elon Musk a cabinet job, adding that that it was likelier that he’d involve him as a federal cost-cutting consultant
https://x.com/bpolitics/status/1828149283268296767
MONDAY: Arizona Police Association endorses Gallego over Lake for Senate
https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1828144617818333491
Option 2) will also sell, probably better: with the morbid fascination of former supporters being fed along with the unalloyed joy of Never Trumpers.
No, not somebody THAT nutty!
Or not...
The Ukrainians find it exasperating, to say the least.
And then the US doesn't want them to shoot back.
I get the sense that this is a one off from Putin in a similar mould. Surely they would do this every day if they could?
Harris is +1.8 over the last week nationally, but only +0.2 in PA. Pennsylvania doesn't want to swing.
This means that AV and NV are nearly more likely wins for Harris than PA at the moment, with leads respectively of 1.5, 1.3 and 1.7
It's not obvious which states the increase in Harris's lead is coming from. None of the battleground states have Harris gaining more than 1.1, so presumably she's picking up votes disproportionally in safe and/no-one hope states - though that may help down ballot races.
David Davis campaigning to abolish our unfair extradition treaty with the US in memory of Mike Lynch.
It's an important campaign (one that Lynch himself was planning when he died) and frankly a brave one. We'll have matured as a nation when it succeeds.
It’s a very different setup.
Seems to be an umbrella union/ lobby group for a large number of local police associations.
https://azpolice.org/about-us/
We are a 501(c)(5) non-profit public service organization whose mission is to represent the collective interest of our member associations in matters involving legal perspectives, compensation, benefits, and retirement security.
3 things that slow the pace of epigenetic aging, from my conversation with
@prof_horvath, the pioneer of these clocks
—Exercise
—More vegetables in diet
—GLP-1 drugs
In the new Ground Truths podcast (link in profile)
"Have these findings changed your diet or made you exercise more or anything like that?"
Steve Horvath:
"So I eat a lot of frozen vegetables. My freezer is full of frozen vegetables."
https://x.com/EricTopol/status/1828158492441825555
But the ones they are producing contain Western components. If sanctions were effective then it's possible Russia wouldn't be able to produce any missiles at all.
I'm not sure what the current Western production rates of long range weapons are. I think it's still zero for Storm Shadow and zero for ATACMs, and it's zero for anything we give them that Ukraine are allowed to use on targets deep inside Russia.
Hopefully Ukraine will be able to soon produce lots of its own long-range weapons, such as the new missile-drone.
https://www.gumtree.com/p/hobbies-collectibles/new-big-set-of-stamps-russian-warship-go-f-k-ukrposhta-ukraine/1475352763
https://x.com/Eric_Schmitt/status/1828088257147752656
Unless they’re pitching for Leon’s vote, I don’t think this is a winning message.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS6A5k8uTp0 - proper link.
https://www.gumtree.com/p/hobbies-collectibles/de-havilland-tiger-moth-tail-skid/1403463906
The US criminal justice system is even more flawed than ours, and the essentially zero standard of evidence required for extradition, to a country where it’s hard to get a fair trial without bankrupting yourself, was a manifest injustice back when the treaty was agreed.
Surely nobody writes
Roger Waters's album
Or
Moses's tablets
I agree with Barnesian - it follows pronunciation. Though some people write Harris'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/zx9ydxs#zkqmfdm
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0jkc9l9
"One in eight people diagnosed with dementia ‘may have liver disease instead’
Cognitive symptoms are similar to those caused by hepatic encephalopathy, which is caused by cirrhosis and is treatable"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/26/one-in-eight-diagnosed-dementia-may-have-liver-disease/
The BBC is wrong about "Iris's cat" imho.
But "Mr Daniels' dog bit Mr Roberts's cat" is acceptable, and illustrates the problem. It's what most people would say.
Rather than a crackhouse in Blyth or a dodgy boozer in Prudhoe.
Went passed a taped off section by a scenic part of the Wansbeck a couple of months ago on the way to work. Disappointingly it turned out to be Vera filming.