The Tories are heading into the abyss of apathy and irrelevance – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Erm, don't you have to look in the mirror and say Jenrick *FIVE* times to do that?No_Offence_Alan said:
Twice more and you will summon him.Anabobazina said:
JENRICKSandyRentool said:Patel illicits a response from voters, more than any of the others. If the Tories want to remain relevant, then clearly there is only one option:
#Priti4Leader0 -
It really isn't WWI style trench warfare any more.
If you were curious how you get 102 russians to leave their bunker and surrender here is how.
https://x.com/osint_69/status/1824720253617668511
It's much scarier.
2 -
Isn't it always the case that the public don't care about the Opposition until the government screws up and then they start taking notice?
At this point, basically all the public wants is for the Tories to shut up and and disappear for a year or two...8 -
I believe the technique is referred to as "JAQ-off"Eabhal said:
"This is worrying"PeterF said:
Just having a discussion my friend.kjh said:
Today sometime you will get banned for being a troll. if you want to avoid that try having a discussion with someone and not make an endless stream of posts. You will last longer than the normal few hours most last.PeterF said:Sadly the uks stock has gone down significantly in the world now. Ive spoken to many in the usa who cant belueve whats going on.
"Just having a discussion"
"As a cyclist"
Funny how you see these same expressions across different social media platforms.
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Just_asking_questions0 -
Why does anyone believe anything the current GOP says ?
I got in touch with 10 school districts around Minnesota. All 10 said their schools do not provide tampons in boys' bathrooms, because the law signed by Gov. Tim Walz does not actually require schools to provide tampons in boys' bathrooms:
https://x.com/ddale8/status/1824542328649818255
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Vice President Kamala Harris has stormed into contention in the fast-growing and diverse states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, not long after Donald J. Trump had seemed on the verge of running away with those states when President Biden was still the Democratic nominee.
The new polls from The New York Times and Siena College show how quickly Ms. Harris has reshaped the terrain of 2024 and thrust the Sun Belt back to the center of the battleground-state map.
NY Times2 -
Even the quality of Vlad's conscript social media warriors seems to be dropping.1
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Going back to the earlier convo about social trust, which is definitely an issue...Nigelb said:Why does anyone believe anything the current GOP says ?
I got in touch with 10 school districts around Minnesota. All 10 said their schools do not provide tampons in boys' bathrooms, because the law signed by Gov. Tim Walz does not actually require schools to provide tampons in boys' bathrooms:
https://x.com/ddale8/status/1824542328649818255
How much of the problem is that a small minority are prepared to flat out lie about stuff, a different small minority are happy to reward liars, and the majority are a bit too trusting to check all these lies?1 -
True, but they need to sort themselves out to take advantage for when that time arrives. Traditionally when parties lose they go in the wrong direction for sorting themselves out (not right or left wing enough) and then correct themselves coming back to the centre.GIN1138 said:Isn't it always the case that the public don't care about the Opposition until the government screws up and then they start taking notice?
At this point, basically all the public wants is for the Tories to shut up and and disappear for a year or two...
They are being challenged by LDs and Reform for voters going forward. Actually all they need is to become competent.0 -
Yup, just checked. 2017.Stuartinromford said:
Two child cap was after the 2015 election, wasn't it? Agree on Sure Start, though.OldKingCole said:
The 2010-15 Government was reasonably stable, both in terms of membership (idiots like Huhne aside) and policy.Stuartinromford said:
It's funny that nobody is making a pitch for the "you know, the 2010-15 government wasn't so bad" vote. Given what happened in 2015, it's sort of understandable that the Lib Dems aren't saying it out loud, I guess.Nigelb said:
Perhaps, perhaps not.Casino_Royale said:
You and @Cicero are core praetorian activist guard of the Liberal Democrats, so it's no wonder you want to big up your seats.kjh said:I like the complacency here by Tories regarding the seats the LDs won off them. 4 - 5 years is a long time and the pendulum may swing back and obliterate the LDs once more because of whatever.
But if you want then back you are going to have to work them or rely on luck.
As @Cicero said there are some impressive LDs elected and they haven't stopped working the seats since the election. Interestingly in Guildford we have continued canvassing and the results show a big increase in support. Now that is probably just a winners bonus that will fade and I assume only happening in seats we won because there is no obvious national swing. But if the Tories want it back they are either going to have to rely on the luck of changing fortunes or work their arses off, which they weren't able to do at the General Election because of lack of volunteers.
Next year is the Counties. The Tories are likely to take a hammering there because they are defending gains. I fully expect the Tories to lose Surrey County Council for only the second time ever and in 1993 they were still the largest party. I suspect they won't be in 2025 and there is an outside chance the LDs may take it. That will be a challenge for the new leader early in their leadership.
If things are going to change it is going to take time. 4 - 5 years may be enough. It might not be and it may get worse.
To hold them you'd have to move much further to the Right than you'd ever be comfortable doing, and that'd involve things like consistently voting with the Tories against Labour budget measures.
Instead, I expect little Sir Echo with a bit more sandals. You know, the usual.
I'd certainly be comfortable with a LibDem party which accommodated elements of one nation conservatism.
Social liberalism and economic pragmatism (something neither Labour nor the Tories have had much truck with this century) would be a very appealing combination.
It was entirely wrong on tuition fees and children's issues (two child policy and, especially, Sure Start) and indeed on financial cutbacks generally, though.
As for austerity in general, something had to happen and none of it would have been pretty. But it has become harder to justify as a five year response to a crisis has rolled out three times as long.
You're right.
Whether Osborne's 'economic crisis' would have last as long has to be one of those great unknowns.
What wouldn't have happened under the Coalition, of course, was the Brexit Referendum.
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GA still looks fucked and NV is bad but if she can hold AZ and gain NC she can lose either PA or WI+MI.rottenborough said:Vice President Kamala Harris has stormed into contention in the fast-growing and diverse states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, not long after Donald J. Trump had seemed on the verge of running away with those states when President Biden was still the Democratic nominee.
The new polls from The New York Times and Siena College show how quickly Ms. Harris has reshaped the terrain of 2024 and thrust the Sun Belt back to the center of the battleground-state map.
NY Times0 -
I may be the only person in the world who thinks this, but...Nigelb said:Why does anyone believe anything the current GOP says ?
I got in touch with 10 school districts around Minnesota. All 10 said their schools do not provide tampons in boys' bathrooms, because the law signed by Gov. Tim Walz does not actually require schools to provide tampons in boys' bathrooms:
https://x.com/ddale8/status/1824542328649818255
Maybe they should require schools to provide tampons in boys' bathrooms?
Gets the weird ick factor out the way educates them on biological reality.
Women's health doesn't need to be a big secret, does it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAvcsgfa6XI
/riskynicheopinion
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Of course, my post is somewhat in jest and exactly the trigger-the-libs reaction the American right want as they desperately try to engineer culture war wedge issues for electoral advantage.
That strategy worked for them for a while, but I sense it may be losing its effectiveness.
or maybe not.
America really is a foreign country with its own unique political culture.2 -
I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.2 -
Well, he was incarcerated in AlcatrazScott_xP said:@holyroodmandy
The whip has been withdrawn from John Mason.
"...Captain John Patrick Mason, General Sir, of Her Majesty's SAS. Retired of course...I have a unique knowledge of this prison facility: I was formerly a guest here..."0 -
Competency is a very difficult thing to demonstrate in opposition. This is what will likely hold them back - they were incompetent, and that image is going to be hard to shake.kjh said:
True, but they need to sort themselves out to take advantage for when that time arrives. Traditionally when parties lose they go in the wrong direction for sorting themselves out (not right or left wing enough) and then correct themselves coming back to the centre.GIN1138 said:Isn't it always the case that the public don't care about the Opposition until the government screws up and then they start taking notice?
At this point, basically all the public wants is for the Tories to shut up and and disappear for a year or two...
They are being challenged by LDs and Reform for voters going forward. Actually all they need is to become competent.
It’s why they are probably better in the next two years being reactive to events and to shoring up opposition votes.3 -
Nearly as bad as the poor conscript soldiers sent to defend Kursk. 2,500 captured PoWs for the Ukranians this week, because the untrained conscripts get scared witless when encountering an actual enemy army shooting in their direction.rottenborough said:Even the quality of Vlad's conscript social media warriors seems to be dropping.
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@Leahgreenb
I don’t think you should launch ad hominem attacks on any ethnic group but it takes a generational political anti-talent to come for the Irish at a police association
https://x.com/Leahgreenb/status/18245875071090731120 -
Any Russian with any sense would surrender. No point dying for Vlad's stupid and pointless war.Sandpit said:
Nearly as bad as the poor conscript soldiers sent to defend Kursk. 2,500 captured PoWs for the Ukranians this week, because the untrained conscripts get scared witless when encountering an actual enemy army shooting in their direction.rottenborough said:Even the quality of Vlad's conscript social media warriors seems to be dropping.
1 -
Certainly Reeves has had a very poor start imho.numbertwelve said:I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.1 -
Straight trenches? Surely they've been outmoded for, what, 110 years or so?Nigelb said:It really isn't WWI style trench warfare any more.
If you were curious how you get 102 russians to leave their bunker and surrender here is how.
https://x.com/osint_69/status/1824720253617668511
It's much scarier.2 -
They meant school terms. (Yes, I know, 3 years = 9 terms.)Mexicanpete said:
Ed is but a youngster. It was not that long ago when posters were pondering who would replace Johnson when he finally called it a day midway through his fifth term.ydoethur said:One other question we might want to ask ourselves is, how long does Ed Davey intend to stay as Leader of the Liberal Democrats? He's 58 and five years from now will be 63.
This is not trivial because I think I'm right in saying he is the only current member of the current LD parliamentary party to have served in cabinet.
Damn! They could have been right after all. Maybe Boris was only in Parliament for five terms. Henley 2001 – 2008 is two terms, then he was Mayor for a bit, then Uxbridge 2015 – 2022 which is three terms, and 2 + 3 = 5. But as MP not PM.0 -
Agree hence the like, but two points:numbertwelve said:
Competency is a very difficult thing to demonstrate in opposition. This is what will likely hold them back - they were incompetent, and that image is going to be hard to shake.kjh said:
True, but they need to sort themselves out to take advantage for when that time arrives. Traditionally when parties lose they go in the wrong direction for sorting themselves out (not right or left wing enough) and then correct themselves coming back to the centre.GIN1138 said:Isn't it always the case that the public don't care about the Opposition until the government screws up and then they start taking notice?
At this point, basically all the public wants is for the Tories to shut up and and disappear for a year or two...
They are being challenged by LDs and Reform for voters going forward. Actually all they need is to become competent.
It’s why they are probably better in the next two years being reactive to events and to shoring up opposition votes.
a) Get a competent sensible leader as this is the one thing people do notice
b) People have short memories (sometimes)1 -
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/0 -
FPPT:
There may be a limited audience for this on PB the next daybondegezou said:
A salutary lesson into the accuracy of Telegraph journalism.ydoethur said:
If the journalist had actually read the report it would have found that some churches are referring to themselves as ‘congregations’ rather than churches to emphasise the difference between the people and the building, the former being more important to them.Casino_Royale said:
It's just going to call itself England?Andy_JS said:"Church of England dropping word ‘church’ to be more ‘modern’"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/16/church-england-dropping-word-church-more-modern/
Hardly controversial.
, however ...
To understand the Telegraph, it's notable of the last 31 articles tagged "Church of England" by the Telegraph, only ONE has been written by their Religious Affairs (OK - Social and Religions Affairs) correspondent, who would hopefully know something about the subject addressed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/church-of-england/
I don't understand why the Telegraph are trying to stir the pot in August with a tiny irrelevant facet of a report that came out in April. They can't even get that right - the complaint is that "church" or "congregation" is being replaced with "worshipping community".
I met the term "worshipping community" in conversation with both RC and Anglican University Chaplains in 1985-6, and it has been in normal use since before then, as a way of describing the 'church community' in the CofE that does not have a strong "gathered membership" understanding (unlike RC and Evangelical, for example), and thinks of the whole geographical as in some sense "us". And needs a term to represent those with links to the church.
The report itself is linked below, and it is really interesting ... if you are interested in how ecclesiology / missiology is developing in 2022-2024 in the UK. They have feedback from 11 Dioceses (from 42) who have supported 900 projects between them over the last decade. The salient takeaway for me is that engagement needs to be more even outside the evangelical wing (both hands-up and hands-down parts!) of the CofE.
Report: https://ccx.org.uk/content/impact-of-new-things/3 -
We'll be better able to judge that when we see the budget in October. The pay deals are troubling but the Union paymasters are seeking their dues. The government is also looking a soft touch which is triggering more rounds of strikes.rottenborough said:
Certainly Reeves has had a very poor start imho.numbertwelve said:I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
The decisions about cancelling various investment projects was also worrying but there is no doubt money is extremely tight. I suspect the differences between Hunt and Reeves are going to be in the margins. There is very little room to manoeuvre.0 -
The Russians still have an active naval ship that was built under the Tsars:Flatlander said:
Straight trenches? Surely they've been outmoded for, what, 110 years or so?Nigelb said:It really isn't WWI style trench warfare any more.
If you were curious how you get 102 russians to leave their bunker and surrender here is how.
https://x.com/osint_69/status/1824720253617668511
It's much scarier.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_rescue_ship_Kommuna2 -
Shows you both the experience and level of training this cannon fodder is being provided. Survival on the modern battlefield requires a lot of skill and a lot of luck.Flatlander said:
Straight trenches? Surely they've been outmoded for, what, 110 years or so?Nigelb said:It really isn't WWI style trench warfare any more.
If you were curious how you get 102 russians to leave their bunker and surrender here is how.
https://x.com/osint_69/status/1824720253617668511
It's much scarier.2 -
Don’t they have any old stocks lying around, that don’t cost anything other than the fuel to deliver them? The Ukranians aren’t too fussy.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/0 -
It might cost them their nice little earners from Certain Persons, no?Sandpit said:
Don’t they have any old stocks lying around, that don’t cost anything other than the fuel to deliver them? The Ukranians aren’t too fussy.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/
(I'm surely not alone in thinking the Americans are really missing a trick by not pointing out much of the stuff they're sending Ukraine is obsolete and it's cheaper to give it away than scrap it. Not only would that kneecap the Republican opposition by showing it for what it is, but it would also be much more embarrassing and difficult for the Russians to explain why they can't match equipment the Americans think is no use.)0 -
What rubbish. German debt as a percentage of GDP is a fraction of other large economies. Plenty of scope for deficit spending for a while whilst there is a war in Europe.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/0 -
Wasn't that the original approach by Germany and they found that they were been given mouldy and rusted kit that was unusable.Sandpit said:
Don’t they have any old stocks lying around, that don’t cost anything other than the fuel to deliver them? The Ukranians aren’t too fussy.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/
Trump isn't right about much, but his attack on the way some countries don't hold up their part of the bargain re NATO was spot on.2 -
"...Germany is on the back foot, and although it will help it will be little and late. Poland is on the front foot, is motivated, able to assist, and can scale..."FrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/
Viewcode, January 2023, see https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/29/the-intermarium/1 -
The budget issues are caused by current account spending, not investment spending. Cutting the investment spending to maintain the current spending, is simply storing up more problems for the future.DavidL said:
We'll be better able to judge that when we see the budget in October. The pay deals are troubling but the Union paymasters are seeking their dues. The government is also looking a soft touch which is triggering more rounds of strikes.rottenborough said:
Certainly Reeves has had a very poor start imho.numbertwelve said:I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
The decisions about cancelling various investment projects was also worrying but there is no doubt money is extremely tight. I suspect the differences between Hunt and Reeves are going to be in the margins. There is very little room to manoeuvre.2 -
Poland support for Ukraine I don't think is mentioned anywhere near enough. How many Ukraine refugees have they taken?viewcode said:
"...Germany is on the back foot, and although it will help it will be little and late. Poland is on the front foot, is motivated, able to assist, and can scale..."FrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/
Viewcode, January 2023, see https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/29/the-intermarium/0 -
"When she laughs during a speech, remember that there are American families crying this very day because they cannot afford groceries."
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1823798990842028174
Wut ?
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Every single bit of support up to now has had to be dragged out of Scholz.Ratters said:
What rubbish. German debt as a percentage of GDP is a fraction of other large economies. Plenty of scope for deficit spending for a while whilst there is a war in Europe.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/1 -
Over a millionFrancisUrquhart said:
Poland support for Ukraine I don't think is mentioned anywhere near enough. How many Ukraine refugees have they taken?viewcode said:
"...Germany is on the back foot, and although it will help it will be little and late. Poland is on the front foot, is motivated, able to assist, and can scale..."FrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/
Viewcode, January 2023, see https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/29/the-intermarium/0 -
It seems to have been very usefulydoethur said:
The Russians still have an active naval ship that was built under the Tsars:Flatlander said:
Straight trenches? Surely they've been outmoded for, what, 110 years or so?Nigelb said:It really isn't WWI style trench warfare any more.
If you were curious how you get 102 russians to leave their bunker and surrender here is how.
https://x.com/osint_69/status/1824720253617668511
It's much scarier.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_rescue_ship_Kommuna0 -
When JD Vance says something, remember he may be brainy but he's also a complete idiot with but a shaky grasp of both reality and the truth.Nigelb said:"When she laughs during a speech, remember that there are American families crying this very day because they cannot afford groceries."
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1823798990842028174
Wut ?0 -
John Mason stripped of SNP whip over 'unacceptable' Gaza posts
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg791g2z8zyo
Was that it? Just that tweet? Or was there more?1 -
Since Feb 2022 about 5 million went into Poland. Most then moved to other countries, but about a million remain. Poland delivers aid, Germany delivers excuses.FrancisUrquhart said:
Poland support for Ukraine I don't think is mentioned anywhere near enough. How many Ukraine refugees have they taken?viewcode said:
"...Germany is on the back foot, and although it will help it will be little and late. Poland is on the front foot, is motivated, able to assist, and can scale..."FrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/
Viewcode, January 2023, see https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/29/the-intermarium/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1312584/ukrainian-refugees-by-country/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Poland3 -
The "post menopausal women's sole purpose" thing was him trying to express the idea that kids love their grandparents, I think.ydoethur said:
When JD Vance says something, remember he may be brainy but he's also a complete idiot with but a shaky grasp of both reality and the truth.Nigelb said:"When she laughs during a speech, remember that there are American families crying this very day because they cannot afford groceries."
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1823798990842028174
Wut ?
He just struggles to express - or parse - normal human emotions in ways that aren't super weird.0 -
The US discussion about Ukraine is immensely frustrating. There’s a fringe 10% on each side who don’t actually care much for the country, and 80% in the middle who think we should be helping them. But the political discussion is about the spending of billions of dollars, most of which, if it’s being spent at all as actual money, is being spent in the US supporting local jobs.ydoethur said:
It might cost them their nice little earners from Certain Persons, no?Sandpit said:
Don’t they have any old stocks lying around, that don’t cost anything other than the fuel to deliver them? The Ukranians aren’t too fussy.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/
(I'm surely not alone in thinking the Americans are really missing a trick by not pointing out much of the stuff they're sending Ukraine is obsolete and it's cheaper to give it away than scrap it. Not only would that kneecap the Republican opposition by showing it for what it is, but it would also be much more embarrassing and difficult for the Russians to explain why they can't match equipment the Americans think is no use.)
Trump was right when he said that NATO countries don’t pull their weight though, there needs to be a serious look at European military capability. Starting with you, Herr Sholz.0 -
Is this pushmepullyou feuding inside the German Govt?viewcode said:
Since Feb 2022 about 5 million went into Poland. Most then moved to other countries, but about a million remain. Poland delivers aid, Germany delivers excuses.FrancisUrquhart said:
Poland support for Ukraine I don't think is mentioned anywhere near enough. How many Ukraine refugees have they taken?viewcode said:
"...Germany is on the back foot, and although it will help it will be little and late. Poland is on the front foot, is motivated, able to assist, and can scale..."FrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/
Viewcode, January 2023, see https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/29/the-intermarium/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1312584/ukrainian-refugees-by-country/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Poland
They have been the 2nd largest provider of military aid, and had already pledged iirc 4 billion Euro for 2024-5.
What is happening in German politics next year?0 -
"I don't need any luck, Sarge! I was born lucky!"DavidL said:
Shows you both the experience and level of training this cannon fodder is being provided. Survival on the modern battlefield requires a lot of skill and a lot of luck.Flatlander said:
Straight trenches? Surely they've been outmoded for, what, 110 years or so?Nigelb said:It really isn't WWI style trench warfare any more.
If you were curious how you get 102 russians to leave their bunker and surrender here is how.
https://x.com/osint_69/status/1824720253617668511
It's much scarier.0 -
Actually, I think it's the new GOP message -ydoethur said:
When JD Vance says something, remember he may be brainy but he's also a complete idiot with but a shaky grasp of both reality and the truth.Nigelb said:"When she laughs during a speech, remember that there are American families crying this very day because they cannot afford groceries."
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1823798990842028174
Wut ?
"How dare you laugh ?"
Harris/Walz "white guy taco" joke sparks bizarre Ben Shapiro rant on the danger of experiencing happiness: "you should not find joy in your politicians... movements that seek joy via politicians are generally really really ugly"
https://x.com/AriDrennen/status/1824547619739406548
0 -
Germany, Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria, and Ottoman Turkey were the first four countries to recognise Ukrainian independence in February 1918.MattW said:
Is this pushmepullyou feuding inside the German Govt?viewcode said:
Since Feb 2022 about 5 million went into Poland. Most then moved to other countries, but about a million remain. Poland delivers aid, Germany delivers excuses.FrancisUrquhart said:
Poland support for Ukraine I don't think is mentioned anywhere near enough. How many Ukraine refugees have they taken?viewcode said:
"...Germany is on the back foot, and although it will help it will be little and late. Poland is on the front foot, is motivated, able to assist, and can scale..."FrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/
Viewcode, January 2023, see https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/29/the-intermarium/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1312584/ukrainian-refugees-by-country/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Poland
They have been the 2nd largest provider of military aid, and had already pledged iirc 4 billion Euro for 2024-5.
What is happening in German politics next year?1 -
They are going to be minced at the counties so there is still bad news they have to ride out. At this rate they are not going to be particularly strong in local government either.kjh said:
True, but they need to sort themselves out to take advantage for when that time arrives. Traditionally when parties lose they go in the wrong direction for sorting themselves out (not right or left wing enough) and then correct themselves coming back to the centre.GIN1138 said:Isn't it always the case that the public don't care about the Opposition until the government screws up and then they start taking notice?
At this point, basically all the public wants is for the Tories to shut up and and disappear for a year or two...
They are being challenged by LDs and Reform for voters going forward. Actually all they need is to become competent.0 -
More, I think, 'how dare you laugh at us merely because of the silly things we do?'Nigelb said:
Actually, I think it's the new GOP message -ydoethur said:
When JD Vance says something, remember he may be brainy but he's also a complete idiot with but a shaky grasp of both reality and the truth.Nigelb said:"When she laughs during a speech, remember that there are American families crying this very day because they cannot afford groceries."
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1823798990842028174
Wut ?
"How dare you laugh ?"
Harris/Walz "white guy taco" joke sparks bizarre Ben Shapiro rant on the danger of experiencing happiness: "you should not find joy in your politicians... movements that seek joy via politicians are generally really really ugly"
https://x.com/AriDrennen/status/18245476197394065481 -
I totally agree and have argued we must cut current spending, not to reduce overall government spending, but to allow more investment to encourage future growth and opportunity. In fairness, Reeves also seemed to get that in her Mais lecture but so far in power she has done the exact opposite. It's disappointing.Sandpit said:
The budget issues are caused by current account spending, not investment spending. Cutting the investment spending to maintain the current spending, is simply storing up more problems for the future.DavidL said:
We'll be better able to judge that when we see the budget in October. The pay deals are troubling but the Union paymasters are seeking their dues. The government is also looking a soft touch which is triggering more rounds of strikes.rottenborough said:
Certainly Reeves has had a very poor start imho.numbertwelve said:I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
The decisions about cancelling various investment projects was also worrying but there is no doubt money is extremely tight. I suspect the differences between Hunt and Reeves are going to be in the margins. There is very little room to manoeuvre.2 -
Man, he didn't take long to get onto his "specialist subject:PeterF said:In 2 days the situation in the special military operation zone changed dramatically. Western countries suffered multi-billion dollar losses, losing a huge number of HIMARS, PATRIOT and IRIS-T air defense systems. Apparently, Ukraine and its allies will not be able to restore their combat capability after such losses in the near future.
DISASTER5 PATRIOT Launchers, 1 IRIS-T And SU-24 Destroyed By Iskanders Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.08.17
PREMIRE: 12:30 PM GMT +3
https://x.com/MilitarySummary/status/1824731970439664071
4 -
kjh said:
Oh I just got it. Doh.malcolmg said:
The jest went right over your head then?kjh said:
Which bit @malcolmg ?malcolmg said:
Pantskjh said:
Interestingly the LDs have continued campaigning in Guildford as if the election was still to happen. A constituency wide leaflet out and daily canvassing.Cicero said:
All of the current Tory candidates are good for the Lib Dems. Patel is simply loathed, Badenoch is Patel without the broomstick accessory, but with a growing reputation for underhand dealings, Jenrick is conventional, but the cartoons nastiness makes him very Marmite even amongst Tory supporters and disliked elsewhere. Tugendhat is amiable but comes across as chinless, while Cleverly is a man for whom the very word "hapless" could have been coined. Even if the next Tory leader makes it to the next general election -not a given- the chances of any of these people becoming PM is vanishingly small. So the polls are right, why should anyone care?HYUFD said:
Given Patel has the worst negatives with voters by far she is the LDs ideal Tory leaderSandyRentool said:Patel illicits a response from voters, more than any of the others. If the Tories want to remain relevant, then clearly there is only one option:
#Priti4Leader
Meanwhile there are some very serious new MPs on the Lib Dem benches (a surprising number of ex military, incidentally) and they have hit the ground running with perma-campaigns in held seats and plans to increase the national vote share and take the fight to the next tier of seats. I don´t think I have ever seen the party so fired up.
Meanwhile every day another more Tory members shuffle off this mortal coil and are not replaced. The leadership election should be the perfect time to recruit, but if anyone is doing that, it is not having much impact. If the Tories lose only another 25 seats to the Lib Dems, then Sir Edward Davey is the Leader of His Majesty´s Loyal Opposition and the Tories are done. At this point one can even wonder if the Tories are up for the fight. Europe doing to the Conservative and Unionist Party what Ireland and Asquithian High mindedness did to the Liberal Party.
The Today programme this morning was covering the issue of Tories dying off rather than people moving Conservative as they get older. Didn't seem clear what that was based upon however.
Re the quality of the new MPs I only know a few, but the ones I know are quite impressive. Keep an eye on Chris Coghlan, a young Paddy Ashdown clone.
1st para is factual
2nd para, 1st sentence is a factual statement. 2nd statement is me casting doubt on the opinion being expressed in that report. The idea of old Tories dying off has been spun many times before so I am not convinced it is true even this time, but it was what was being reported.
3rd statement is my opinion, but how would you know it is pants? You don't know who the ones I know are and you almost certainly don't know them personally 500 miles away and a quick look at Chris Coghlan's CV will tell you why he looks like a young Paddy Ashdown clone whether you like him or rate him at all.
So what bit was actually pants then?
Well I wasted a huge number of words defending my post that didn't need defending.
Sorry @malcolmg .
Decent pun as well, which makes it worse.
cheers 1 -
Well we've had 14 years of people in this country going on and on and on about food banks.Nigelb said:"When she laughs during a speech, remember that there are American families crying this very day because they cannot afford groceries."
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1823798990842028174
Wut ?
The situation is just the same in the USA, perhaps more so with the greater inequality, smaller welfare state and higher cost of food.
And Vance has personal experience of deprivation which allows him to speak with knowledge.
Whether he has any policies to remedy the underlying issues is another matter.0 -
Given that the baseline is Peak Vaccine Hero Boris, they'll appear to do badly even if they actually do OK, which is a long way above how they're actually doing.Cicero said:
They are going to be minced at the counties so there is still bad news they have to ride out. At this rate they are not going to be particularly strong in local government either.kjh said:
True, but they need to sort themselves out to take advantage for when that time arrives. Traditionally when parties lose they go in the wrong direction for sorting themselves out (not right or left wing enough) and then correct themselves coming back to the centre.GIN1138 said:Isn't it always the case that the public don't care about the Opposition until the government screws up and then they start taking notice?
At this point, basically all the public wants is for the Tories to shut up and and disappear for a year or two...
They are being challenged by LDs and Reform for voters going forward. Actually all they need is to become competent.
(Just checked the Wiki page;
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_Kingdom_local_elections
There's an awful lot of downside there for the Conservatives, and not much for Labour.)0 -
So does Walz. Doesn't stop him from laughing.another_richard said:
Well we've had 14 years of people in this country going on and on and on about food banks.Nigelb said:"When she laughs during a speech, remember that there are American families crying this very day because they cannot afford groceries."
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1823798990842028174
Wut ?
The situation is just the same in the USA, perhaps more so with the greater inequality, smaller welfare state and higher cost of food.
And Vance has personal experience of deprivation which allows him to speak with knowledge.
Whether he has any policies to remedy the underlying issues is another matter.0 -
Pity cannot look at it as banned from X for saying the Russians are evil crap and could not beat a carpet, you could not make it up.Nigelb said:It really isn't WWI style trench warfare any more.
If you were curious how you get 102 russians to leave their bunker and surrender here is how.
https://x.com/osint_69/status/1824720253617668511
It's much scarier.1 -
The Tories don’t seem to have yet internalised how much of it is down to their behaviour.Casino_Royale said:
Fair enough, an interesting post I did not expect.kjh said:Casino_Royale said:
You and @Cicero are core praetorian activist guard of the Liberal Democrats, so it's no wonder you want to big up your seats.kjh said:I like the complacency here by Tories regarding the seats the LDs won off them. 4 - 5 years is a long time and the pendulum may swing back and obliterate the LDs once more because of whatever.
But if you want then back you are going to have to work them or rely on luck.
As @Cicero said there are some impressive LDs elected and they haven't stopped working the seats since the election. Interestingly in Guildford we have continued canvassing and the results show a big increase in support. Now that is probably just a winners bonus that will fade and I assume only happening in seats we won because there is no obvious national swing. But if the Tories want it back they are either going to have to rely on the luck of changing fortunes or work their arses off, which they weren't able to do at the General Election because of lack of volunteers.
Next year is the Counties. The Tories are likely to take a hammering there because they are defending gains. I fully expect the Tories to lose Surrey County Council for only the second time ever and in 1993 they were still the largest party. I suspect they won't be in 2025 and there is an outside chance the LDs may take it. That will be a challenge for the new leader early in their leadership.
If things are going to change it is going to take time. 4 - 5 years may be enough. It might not be and it may get worse.
To hold them you'd have to move much further to the Right than you'd ever be comfortable doing, and that'd involve things like consistently voting with the Tories against Labour budget measures.
Instead, I expect little Sir Echo with a bit more sandals. You know, the usual.
@Casino_Royale
First para - agree, we are
I was trying to be factual. The Tories might recover well and then we will be defending seats and losing them and not going for more gains. But I accept that. But by the sounds of it we are planning for both scenarios (moving forward or trying to defend) whereas the Tories seem (from the posts here) to be just relying on it just sorting itself out by Labour's popularity dropping. The latter is a given in time, the former not. For instance we had to work really hard at squeezing the Labour at this election because of their popularity. It was a real challenge even in obvious target seats, not helped by the stupid polls predicting Labour winning places like Wantage and Didcot and Guildford and Woking, etc. That will be easier next time and with other opportunities opening up as labour's fortunes inevitably fall.
In terms of moving to the right I am a liberal not a social democrat so I might be biased here, but I hope the LDs provide a distinctive opposition. They certainly won't be Labour's little helpers.
We will see and it may become academic, but the Tories shouldn't rely on it all working out in the end. It may do and that will be our loss, but if it doesn't that will be their own fault if they do nothing about it and just rely on fate.
If the Liberals can develop an interesting opposition then perhaps more options could be on the table. But, I'll believe that when I see it.
Casting around for a new leader or some new shiny policy - whether aimed at LibDem voters or Reform voters - misses the mark if the Tories don’t have a hard think about how they came to be seen - and (a case can be made) came to be - a bunch of liars, weirdos, perverts and crooks.1 -
https://nitter.poast.org/osint_69/status/1824720253617668511malcolmg said:
Pity cannot look at it as banned from X for saying the Russians are evil crap and could not beat a carpet, you could not make it up.Nigelb said:It really isn't WWI style trench warfare any more.
If you were curious how you get 102 russians to leave their bunker and surrender here is how.
https://x.com/osint_69/status/1824720253617668511
It's much scarier.0 -
poor excuse to say the leastFrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/0 -
I talked about this down thread and previously. The Tories have only lost Surrey CC once in 1993 and even then they were the largest party. In May they are going to lose it again, but this time they won't be the largest party either. There is a chance (only a chance) that the LDs may take control. The Tories don't control any boroughs in Surrey. Not one. In several like Mole Valley, Woking, Surrey Heath there is near LD dominance. However that does make it difficult for the LDs in 2026 onwards.Cicero said:
They are going to be minced at the counties so there is still bad news they have to ride out. At this rate they are not going to be particularly strong in local government either.kjh said:
True, but they need to sort themselves out to take advantage for when that time arrives. Traditionally when parties lose they go in the wrong direction for sorting themselves out (not right or left wing enough) and then correct themselves coming back to the centre.GIN1138 said:Isn't it always the case that the public don't care about the Opposition until the government screws up and then they start taking notice?
At this point, basically all the public wants is for the Tories to shut up and and disappear for a year or two...
They are being challenged by LDs and Reform for voters going forward. Actually all they need is to become competent.0 -
We need to see what happens in October. So far, we've really only had a partial reversal of the "close our eyes, stick fingers in our ears and pretend it's not happening" fiscal policy of the last government.DavidL said:
I totally agree and have argued we must cut current spending, not to reduce overall government spending, but to allow more investment to encourage future growth and opportunity. In fairness, Reeves also seemed to get that in her Mais lecture but so far in power she has done the exact opposite. It's disappointing.Sandpit said:
The budget issues are caused by current account spending, not investment spending. Cutting the investment spending to maintain the current spending, is simply storing up more problems for the future.DavidL said:
We'll be better able to judge that when we see the budget in October. The pay deals are troubling but the Union paymasters are seeking their dues. The government is also looking a soft touch which is triggering more rounds of strikes.rottenborough said:
Certainly Reeves has had a very poor start imho.numbertwelve said:I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
The decisions about cancelling various investment projects was also worrying but there is no doubt money is extremely tight. I suspect the differences between Hunt and Reeves are going to be in the margins. There is very little room to manoeuvre.
Most of the investments that were cut were unlikely to get beyond lines on a map, and something roughly like the public sector pay rises had to happen, which is why the pay bodies recommended them.0 -
I find her rushing to "spin" the more disappointing element. She has undermined her credibility within the first week. It shows us she will be a political CoE rather than a reforming one at a time when we need a reformer.DavidL said:
I totally agree and have argued we must cut current spending, not to reduce overall government spending, but to allow more investment to encourage future growth and opportunity. In fairness, Reeves also seemed to get that in her Mais lecture but so far in power she has done the exact opposite. It's disappointing.Sandpit said:
The budget issues are caused by current account spending, not investment spending. Cutting the investment spending to maintain the current spending, is simply storing up more problems for the future.DavidL said:
We'll be better able to judge that when we see the budget in October. The pay deals are troubling but the Union paymasters are seeking their dues. The government is also looking a soft touch which is triggering more rounds of strikes.rottenborough said:
Certainly Reeves has had a very poor start imho.numbertwelve said:I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
The decisions about cancelling various investment projects was also worrying but there is no doubt money is extremely tight. I suspect the differences between Hunt and Reeves are going to be in the margins. There is very little room to manoeuvre.1 -
If you are not in the clique then you can be expelled for the least miniscule imagined infraction as defined by the clique of clowns running the keystone cop showFrancisUrquhart said:John Mason stripped of SNP whip over 'unacceptable' Gaza posts
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg791g2z8zyo
Was that it? Just that tweet? Or was there more?1 -
We learned from your example?IanB2 said:
The Tories don’t seem to have yet internalised how much of it is down to their behaviour.Casino_Royale said:
Fair enough, an interesting post I did not expect.kjh said:Casino_Royale said:
You and @Cicero are core praetorian activist guard of the Liberal Democrats, so it's no wonder you want to big up your seats.kjh said:I like the complacency here by Tories regarding the seats the LDs won off them. 4 - 5 years is a long time and the pendulum may swing back and obliterate the LDs once more because of whatever.
But if you want then back you are going to have to work them or rely on luck.
As @Cicero said there are some impressive LDs elected and they haven't stopped working the seats since the election. Interestingly in Guildford we have continued canvassing and the results show a big increase in support. Now that is probably just a winners bonus that will fade and I assume only happening in seats we won because there is no obvious national swing. But if the Tories want it back they are either going to have to rely on the luck of changing fortunes or work their arses off, which they weren't able to do at the General Election because of lack of volunteers.
Next year is the Counties. The Tories are likely to take a hammering there because they are defending gains. I fully expect the Tories to lose Surrey County Council for only the second time ever and in 1993 they were still the largest party. I suspect they won't be in 2025 and there is an outside chance the LDs may take it. That will be a challenge for the new leader early in their leadership.
If things are going to change it is going to take time. 4 - 5 years may be enough. It might not be and it may get worse.
To hold them you'd have to move much further to the Right than you'd ever be comfortable doing, and that'd involve things like consistently voting with the Tories against Labour budget measures.
Instead, I expect little Sir Echo with a bit more sandals. You know, the usual.
@Casino_Royale
First para - agree, we are
I was trying to be factual. The Tories might recover well and then we will be defending seats and losing them and not going for more gains. But I accept that. But by the sounds of it we are planning for both scenarios (moving forward or trying to defend) whereas the Tories seem (from the posts here) to be just relying on it just sorting itself out by Labour's popularity dropping. The latter is a given in time, the former not. For instance we had to work really hard at squeezing the Labour at this election because of their popularity. It was a real challenge even in obvious target seats, not helped by the stupid polls predicting Labour winning places like Wantage and Didcot and Guildford and Woking, etc. That will be easier next time and with other opportunities opening up as labour's fortunes inevitably fall.
In terms of moving to the right I am a liberal not a social democrat so I might be biased here, but I hope the LDs provide a distinctive opposition. They certainly won't be Labour's little helpers.
We will see and it may become academic, but the Tories shouldn't rely on it all working out in the end. It may do and that will be our loss, but if it doesn't that will be their own fault if they do nothing about it and just rely on fate.
If the Liberals can develop an interesting opposition then perhaps more options could be on the table. But, I'll believe that when I see it.
Casting around for a new leader or some new shiny policy - whether aimed at LibDem voters or Reform voters - misses the mark if the Tories don’t have a hard think about how they came to be seen - and (a case can be made) came to be - a bunch of liars, weirdos, perverts and crooks.0 -
They have a note from their mum. They're excused war.malcolmg said:
poor excuse to say the leastFrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/
In fairness to Schultz, there are good reasons for this: he's dependent on uncooperative coalition partners and there is a *lot* on institutional pressure in Germany to not do anything
However he has been in the job for nearly three years and he should have climbed the learning curve by now. "Announcing things in speeches" != "getting things done"1 -
Cheers Viewcodeviewcode said:
https://nitter.poast.org/osint_69/status/1824720253617668511malcolmg said:
Pity cannot look at it as banned from X for saying the Russians are evil crap and could not beat a carpet, you could not make it up.Nigelb said:It really isn't WWI style trench warfare any more.
If you were curious how you get 102 russians to leave their bunker and surrender here is how.
https://x.com/osint_69/status/1824720253617668511
It's much scarier.1 -
Somerset House is on fire.1
-
I said something very similar in my first post on this. October is when we will see the shape and the priorities. I hope she does well. As a country we have some serious, deep rooted problems that the previous government did not address, principally productivity, investment, training and excess consumption leading to a serious trade deficit. I don't envy her her task.Stuartinromford said:
We need to see what happens in October. So far, we've really only had a partial reversal of the "close our eyes, stick fingers in our ears and pretend it's not happening" fiscal policy of the last government.DavidL said:
I totally agree and have argued we must cut current spending, not to reduce overall government spending, but to allow more investment to encourage future growth and opportunity. In fairness, Reeves also seemed to get that in her Mais lecture but so far in power she has done the exact opposite. It's disappointing.Sandpit said:
The budget issues are caused by current account spending, not investment spending. Cutting the investment spending to maintain the current spending, is simply storing up more problems for the future.DavidL said:
We'll be better able to judge that when we see the budget in October. The pay deals are troubling but the Union paymasters are seeking their dues. The government is also looking a soft touch which is triggering more rounds of strikes.rottenborough said:
Certainly Reeves has had a very poor start imho.numbertwelve said:I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
The decisions about cancelling various investment projects was also worrying but there is no doubt money is extremely tight. I suspect the differences between Hunt and Reeves are going to be in the margins. There is very little room to manoeuvre.
Most of the investments that were cut were unlikely to get beyond lines on a map, and something roughly like the public sector pay rises had to happen, which is why the pay bodies recommended them.3 -
He's right though. The number of HIMARS and other rocket systems that have been destroyed on Russian bridges, train lines, military columns and defensive positions over the last week is remarkable.rcs1000 said:
Man, he didn't take long to get onto his "specialist subject:PeterF said:In 2 days the situation in the special military operation zone changed dramatically. Western countries suffered multi-billion dollar losses, losing a huge number of HIMARS, PATRIOT and IRIS-T air defense systems. Apparently, Ukraine and its allies will not be able to restore their combat capability after such losses in the near future.
DISASTER5 PATRIOT Launchers, 1 IRIS-T And SU-24 Destroyed By Iskanders Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.08.17
PREMIRE: 12:30 PM GMT +3
https://x.com/MilitarySummary/status/18247319704396640716 -
https://x.com/londonfire/status/1824782584317927934dixiedean said:Somerset House is on fire.
15 fire engines and 100 firefighters sent to the scene. Roof looks to be properly on fire.0 -
Indeed. Look at the damage this Russian bridge did to a poor HIMARS rocket.DavidL said:
He's right though. The number of HIMARS and other rocket systems that have been destroyed on Russian bridges, train lines, military columns and defensive positions over the last week is remarkable.rcs1000 said:
Man, he didn't take long to get onto his "specialist subject:PeterF said:In 2 days the situation in the special military operation zone changed dramatically. Western countries suffered multi-billion dollar losses, losing a huge number of HIMARS, PATRIOT and IRIS-T air defense systems. Apparently, Ukraine and its allies will not be able to restore their combat capability after such losses in the near future.
DISASTER5 PATRIOT Launchers, 1 IRIS-T And SU-24 Destroyed By Iskanders Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.08.17
PREMIRE: 12:30 PM GMT +3
https://x.com/MilitarySummary/status/1824731970439664071
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/18245073114461679440 -
Courtauld Institute - art collections, library, archives, though. No idea if it is in the endangered bit but fire hoses also do a lot of damage esp if used high up as in a roof fire.ydoethur said:0 -
Hopefully they have a system in place to get the most valuable stuff out in an emergency. Yes, water damage can be as bad as fire damage.Carnyx said:
Courtauld Institute - art collections, library, archives, though. No idea if it is in the endangered bit but fire hoses also do a lot of damage esp if used high up as in a roof fire.ydoethur said:1 -
If the Tweet is right it was launched by a fighter and not a rocket.Sandpit said:
Indeed. Look at the damage this Russian bridge did to a poor HIMARS rocket.DavidL said:
He's right though. The number of HIMARS and other rocket systems that have been destroyed on Russian bridges, train lines, military columns and defensive positions over the last week is remarkable.rcs1000 said:
Man, he didn't take long to get onto his "specialist subject:PeterF said:In 2 days the situation in the special military operation zone changed dramatically. Western countries suffered multi-billion dollar losses, losing a huge number of HIMARS, PATRIOT and IRIS-T air defense systems. Apparently, Ukraine and its allies will not be able to restore their combat capability after such losses in the near future.
DISASTER5 PATRIOT Launchers, 1 IRIS-T And SU-24 Destroyed By Iskanders Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.08.17
PREMIRE: 12:30 PM GMT +3
https://x.com/MilitarySummary/status/1824731970439664071
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1824507311446167944
Remarkable what having air superiority used well can do.0 -
Something for our educators (I am not competent to judge, improbable as this statement may be on pB):
https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/aug/17/goves-free-schools-increase-segregation-and-harm-nearby-schools-says-study0 -
Because they had lost the right to be heard.FF43 said:
This is a genuine question, for all Tories.Casino_Royale said:
Why would this form of Labour government, pursuing classic socialism, appeal even further to Tory voters?FF43 said:
Lib Dems becoming second party I think depends on Labour winning further seats from the Conservatives, which by is by no means impossible. It does depend on what happens with Reform, Labour remaining a lot more popular relative to the Conservatives and continued Labour/LD/Green tactical voting.Stuartinromford said:As for Lib Dems overtaking Conservatives, that needs about 25 gains by the Peril on the Yellow-Blue battlefield. That means overturning majorities of 8000/8% or so, and winning in places like Surrey East and New Forest West.
A few months ago, that would have seemed crazy, but if the Lib Dems can properly lean into their new status as the party of Nice Britain, kind of like the Aussie Teals, who knows? The Conservatives have got to do something about those seats, because 70 Lib Dems are already a pretty effective block on a Conservative majority.
On the other hand I could also Lib Dems winning more seats off the Conservatives as that party wins seats off Labour if Labour goes into decline. The Lib Dems will become challengers at Labour's expense in some Tory seats.
Some people have taken leave of their senses.
Why do you think the Tories had their worst result in terms of seats since 1761?
They weren’t considered for government because they weee tired, divided and incompetent
2 -
I'm inclined to say, 'well, they would say that, wouldn't they?'Carnyx said:Something for our educators (I am not competent to judge, improbable as this statement may be on pB):
https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/aug/17/goves-free-schools-increase-segregation-and-harm-nearby-schools-says-study
Not forgetting quite a lot of free schools were private schools that moved to state provision.
It's instructive that they generally aren't considered better than standard schools or spurred standard schools to improve education, but then you could make the same point about academy schools and academy chains.
Bottom line is, it was a very Whitehall idea that change the management structure and things will improve. It didn't occur to them to ask if actually the problems were rather more complex than that.3 -
Yes there’s actually some confusion about whether it was a ground-based or air-based rocket that took out that bridge, but the bridge got taken out nonetheless.BartholomewRoberts said:
If the Tweet is right it was launched by a fighter and not a rocket.Sandpit said:
Indeed. Look at the damage this Russian bridge did to a poor HIMARS rocket.DavidL said:
He's right though. The number of HIMARS and other rocket systems that have been destroyed on Russian bridges, train lines, military columns and defensive positions over the last week is remarkable.rcs1000 said:
Man, he didn't take long to get onto his "specialist subject:PeterF said:In 2 days the situation in the special military operation zone changed dramatically. Western countries suffered multi-billion dollar losses, losing a huge number of HIMARS, PATRIOT and IRIS-T air defense systems. Apparently, Ukraine and its allies will not be able to restore their combat capability after such losses in the near future.
DISASTER5 PATRIOT Launchers, 1 IRIS-T And SU-24 Destroyed By Iskanders Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.08.17
PREMIRE: 12:30 PM GMT +3
https://x.com/MilitarySummary/status/1824731970439664071
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1824507311446167944
Remarkable what having air superiority used well can do.
Air superiority is awfully close for Ukraine now, and the first few F-16s are in theatre as well. The Russians lost another one of their bomber aircraft yesterday, crashed just after takeoff, and there’s rumours around that they don’t have an awful lot of an Air Force left, which would be astonishing if true.
As someone said earlier, they’ve gone quickly from having the second best military force in the world, to having the second best military force in Ukraine, to having the second best military force in Russia.1 -
Since Labour took over my local council in 2022 they’ve stopped picking up rubbish from bins (curb side only despite the foxes that they have failed to control) and reduced collections from 2x per week to once every 2 weeks.kjh said:I like the complacency here by Tories regarding the seats the LDs won off them. 4 - 5 years is a long time and the pendulum may swing back and obliterate the LDs once more because of whatever.
But if you want then back you are going to have to work them or rely on luck.
As @Cicero said there are some impressive LDs elected and they haven't stopped working the seats since the election. Interestingly in Guildford we have continued canvassing and the results show a big increase in support. Now that is probably just a winners bonus that will fade and I assume only happening in seats we won because there is no obvious national swing. But if the Tories want it back they are either going to have to rely on the luck of changing fortunes or work their arses off, which they weren't able to do at the General Election because of lack of volunteers.
Next year is the Counties. The Tories are likely to take a hammering there because they are defending gains. I fully expect the Tories to lose Surrey County Council for only the second time ever and in 1993 they were still the largest party. I suspect they won't be in 2025 and there is an outside chance the LDs may take it. That will be a challenge for the new leader early in their leadership.
If things are going to change it is going to take time. 4 - 5 years may be enough. It
might not be and it may get worse.
It’s about the only service I get from the council and their changes have materially worsened their offering
1 -
“Storm Shadow” is trending on Twitter, as the US wakes up and reads the Times story that Biden is blocking the British from using them in Russia.0
-
Off topic.
Is it me?
I can clearly see TSE's double entendres at 50 paces, but picking out the suggestive offence Daily Mail readers captured in an instant on this Zara children's T - shirt took some deep mind searching for me.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13752747/zara-strawberry-t-shirt-pulled-laura-wilson-kent-bluewater.html?ito=windows-widget-push-notification&ci=5920540 -
Arizona has flipped to Harris with RCP's polling average.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-harris
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college0 -
I don't know about the t-shirt, but I was triggered by the phrase "full time content creator"Mexicanpete said:Off topic.
Is it me?
I can clearly see TSE's double entendres at 50 paces, but picking out the suggestive offence Daily Mail readers captured in an instant on this Zara children's T - shirt took some deep mind searching for me.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13752747/zara-strawberry-t-shirt-pulled-laura-wilson-kent-bluewater.html?ito=windows-widget-push-notification&ci=5920541 -
But everybody does need to remember that all local councils have been starved of funds by the recent Conservative governments. All public services have been.StillWaters said:
Since Labour took over my local council in 2022 they’ve stopped picking up rubbish from bins (curb side only despite the foxes that they have failed to control) and reduced collections from 2x per week to once every 2 weeks.kjh said:I like the complacency here by Tories regarding the seats the LDs won off them. 4 - 5 years is a long time and the pendulum may swing back and obliterate the LDs once more because of whatever.
But if you want then back you are going to have to work them or rely on luck.
As @Cicero said there are some impressive LDs elected and they haven't stopped working the seats since the election. Interestingly in Guildford we have continued canvassing and the results show a big increase in support. Now that is probably just a winners bonus that will fade and I assume only happening in seats we won because there is no obvious national swing. But if the Tories want it back they are either going to have to rely on the luck of changing fortunes or work their arses off, which they weren't able to do at the General Election because of lack of volunteers.
Next year is the Counties. The Tories are likely to take a hammering there because they are defending gains. I fully expect the Tories to lose Surrey County Council for only the second time ever and in 1993 they were still the largest party. I suspect they won't be in 2025 and there is an outside chance the LDs may take it. That will be a challenge for the new leader early in their leadership.
If things are going to change it is going to take time. 4 - 5 years may be enough. It
might not be and it may get worse.
It’s about the only service I get from the council and their changes have materially worsened their offering
The upside, if you are a Conservative supporter, is that recent governments have done everything possible to create tax avoidance loopholes for the mega-wealthy, at the same time as they have enabled foreigners to take control of most of our infrastructure. Who have then been allowed to exploit their position for all they are worth.
If you are a Conservative, I am sure you think that was worth it. So please stop complaining and put the blame for inadequate public services firmly where it belongs.1 -
General Register Office, Southport:Andy_JS said:
https://www.gov.uk/general-register-office
I think there are copies at the National Archives in Kew as well.2 -
Labour were polling 60% in the polls at this stage of the 1997-2001 parliament, despite getting 44% at the 1997 election itself.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2001_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
I think Ukraine lost a MIG-29 yesterday. I don't know if it was from accident or warfighting.Sandpit said:
Yes there’s actually some confusion about whether it was a ground-based or air-based rocket that took out that bridge, but the bridge got taken out nonetheless.BartholomewRoberts said:
If the Tweet is right it was launched by a fighter and not a rocket.Sandpit said:
Indeed. Look at the damage this Russian bridge did to a poor HIMARS rocket.DavidL said:
He's right though. The number of HIMARS and other rocket systems that have been destroyed on Russian bridges, train lines, military columns and defensive positions over the last week is remarkable.rcs1000 said:
Man, he didn't take long to get onto his "specialist subject:PeterF said:In 2 days the situation in the special military operation zone changed dramatically. Western countries suffered multi-billion dollar losses, losing a huge number of HIMARS, PATRIOT and IRIS-T air defense systems. Apparently, Ukraine and its allies will not be able to restore their combat capability after such losses in the near future.
DISASTER5 PATRIOT Launchers, 1 IRIS-T And SU-24 Destroyed By Iskanders Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.08.17
PREMIRE: 12:30 PM GMT +3
https://x.com/MilitarySummary/status/1824731970439664071
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1824507311446167944
Remarkable what having air superiority used well can do.
Air superiority is awfully close for Ukraine now, and the first few F-16s are in theatre as well. The Russians lost another one of their bomber aircraft yesterday, crashed just after takeoff, and there’s rumours around that they don’t have an awful lot of an Air Force left, which would be astonishing if true.
As someone said earlier, they’ve gone quickly from having the second best military force in the world, to having the second best military force in Ukraine, to having the second best military force in Russia.0 -
I’m actually quite interested in the answer to this.Andy_JS said:
Before the internet/pb/social media, it’s the kind of factoid you’d only pick up from obscure books, or a university professor, or a dinner party conversation with a very weird person. Or you’d have to know a civil servant in the archives department, or something.
1 -
Health hasn't been starved of funds. That's why other public services have been cut in real terms almost everywhere, even while the tax burden has grown.ClippP said:
But everybody does need to remember that all local councils have been starved of funds by the recent Conservative governments. All public services have been.StillWaters said:
Since Labour took over my local council in 2022 they’ve stopped picking up rubbish from bins (curb side only despite the foxes that they have failed to control) and reduced collections from 2x per week to once every 2 weeks.kjh said:I like the complacency here by Tories regarding the seats the LDs won off them. 4 - 5 years is a long time and the pendulum may swing back and obliterate the LDs once more because of whatever.
But if you want then back you are going to have to work them or rely on luck.
As @Cicero said there are some impressive LDs elected and they haven't stopped working the seats since the election. Interestingly in Guildford we have continued canvassing and the results show a big increase in support. Now that is probably just a winners bonus that will fade and I assume only happening in seats we won because there is no obvious national swing. But if the Tories want it back they are either going to have to rely on the luck of changing fortunes or work their arses off, which they weren't able to do at the General Election because of lack of volunteers.
Next year is the Counties. The Tories are likely to take a hammering there because they are defending gains. I fully expect the Tories to lose Surrey County Council for only the second time ever and in 1993 they were still the largest party. I suspect they won't be in 2025 and there is an outside chance the LDs may take it. That will be a challenge for the new leader early in their leadership.
If things are going to change it is going to take time. 4 - 5 years may be enough. It
might not be and it may get worse.
It’s about the only service I get from the council and their changes have materially worsened their offering
The upside, if you are a Conservative supporter, is that recent governments have done everything possible to create tax avoidance loopholes for the mega-wealthy, at the same time as they have enabled foreigners to take control of most of our infrastructure. Who have then been allowed to exploit their position for all they are worth.
If you are a Conservative, I am sure you think that was worth it. So please stop complaining and put the blame for inadequate public services firmly where it belongs.1 -
What does the story actually say ?FrancisUrquhart said:Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/
A far as I understand it, Scholz is refusing requests for additional funding for aid; they haven’t “frozen” actual aid - and will still provide more assistance this year than we will.
He’s very wrong to do so, IMO, but the arms Germany continues to supply will be crucial for Ukraine.
0 -
We had big economic speeches from both Trump and Harris this week. This is my best attempt at an even-handed analysis.
https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1824795650313040252
1 -
HMG (last incarnation) was hoping to shred them and use digital scans alone. Not sure of the current state of the proposal.Tim_in_Ruislip said:
I’m actually quite interested in the answer to this.Andy_JS said:
Before the internet/pb/social media, it’s the kind of factoid you’d only pick up from obscure books, or a university professor, or a dinner party conversation with a very weird person. Or you’d have to know a civil servant in the archives department, or something.
Yes, I *know*.1 -
Fair play to the firefighters at Somerset House, that new 64m ladder they have looks terrifying.
https://x.com/skynews/status/18248051014012358912 -
TBF, Mason has been a loose cannon for a long time and given to inflammatory remarks, but hitherto been indulged as his previous targets have been outside the tent rather than within it. Looks like he's blown himself up this time tho.malcolmg said:
If you are not in the clique then you can be expelled for the least miniscule imagined infraction as defined by the clique of clowns running the keystone cop showFrancisUrquhart said:John Mason stripped of SNP whip over 'unacceptable' Gaza posts
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg791g2z8zyo
Was that it? Just that tweet? Or was there more?0 -
Trump would ban Ukraine from using any weapons...Sandpit said:“Storm Shadow” is trending on Twitter, as the US wakes up and reads the Times story that Biden is blocking the British from using them in Russia.
0 -
You think that Starmer would let himself be overruled by Trump?JosiasJessop said:
Trump would ban Ukraine from using any weapons...Sandpit said:“Storm Shadow” is trending on Twitter, as the US wakes up and reads the Times story that Biden is blocking the British from using them in Russia.
0
