Sadly the uks stock has gone down significantly in the world now. Ive spoken to many in the usa who cant belueve whats going on.
Today sometime you will get banned for being a troll. if you want to avoid that try having a discussion with someone and not make an endless stream of posts. You will last longer than the normal few hours most last.
Just having a discussion my friend.
"This is worrying" "Just having a discussion" "As a cyclist"
Funny how you see these same expressions across different social media platforms.
I believe the technique is referred to as "JAQ-off"
Why does anyone believe anything the current GOP says ?
I got in touch with 10 school districts around Minnesota. All 10 said their schools do not provide tampons in boys' bathrooms, because the law signed by Gov. Tim Walz does not actually require schools to provide tampons in boys' bathrooms: https://x.com/ddale8/status/1824542328649818255
Vice President Kamala Harris has stormed into contention in the fast-growing and diverse states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, not long after Donald J. Trump had seemed on the verge of running away with those states when President Biden was still the Democratic nominee.
The new polls from The New York Times and Siena College show how quickly Ms. Harris has reshaped the terrain of 2024 and thrust the Sun Belt back to the center of the battleground-state map.
Why does anyone believe anything the current GOP says ?
I got in touch with 10 school districts around Minnesota. All 10 said their schools do not provide tampons in boys' bathrooms, because the law signed by Gov. Tim Walz does not actually require schools to provide tampons in boys' bathrooms: https://x.com/ddale8/status/1824542328649818255
Going back to the earlier convo about social trust, which is definitely an issue...
How much of the problem is that a small minority are prepared to flat out lie about stuff, a different small minority are happy to reward liars, and the majority are a bit too trusting to check all these lies?
Isn't it always the case that the public don't care about the Opposition until the government screws up and then they start taking notice?
At this point, basically all the public wants is for the Tories to shut up and and disappear for a year or two...
True, but they need to sort themselves out to take advantage for when that time arrives. Traditionally when parties lose they go in the wrong direction for sorting themselves out (not right or left wing enough) and then correct themselves coming back to the centre.
They are being challenged by LDs and Reform for voters going forward. Actually all they need is to become competent.
I like the complacency here by Tories regarding the seats the LDs won off them. 4 - 5 years is a long time and the pendulum may swing back and obliterate the LDs once more because of whatever.
But if you want then back you are going to have to work them or rely on luck.
As @Cicero said there are some impressive LDs elected and they haven't stopped working the seats since the election. Interestingly in Guildford we have continued canvassing and the results show a big increase in support. Now that is probably just a winners bonus that will fade and I assume only happening in seats we won because there is no obvious national swing. But if the Tories want it back they are either going to have to rely on the luck of changing fortunes or work their arses off, which they weren't able to do at the General Election because of lack of volunteers.
Next year is the Counties. The Tories are likely to take a hammering there because they are defending gains. I fully expect the Tories to lose Surrey County Council for only the second time ever and in 1993 they were still the largest party. I suspect they won't be in 2025 and there is an outside chance the LDs may take it. That will be a challenge for the new leader early in their leadership.
If things are going to change it is going to take time. 4 - 5 years may be enough. It might not be and it may get worse.
You and @Cicero are core praetorian activist guard of the Liberal Democrats, so it's no wonder you want to big up your seats.
To hold them you'd have to move much further to the Right than you'd ever be comfortable doing, and that'd involve things like consistently voting with the Tories against Labour budget measures.
Instead, I expect little Sir Echo with a bit more sandals. You know, the usual.
Perhaps, perhaps not. I'd certainly be comfortable with a LibDem party which accommodated elements of one nation conservatism. Social liberalism and economic pragmatism (something neither Labour nor the Tories have had much truck with this century) would be a very appealing combination.
It's funny that nobody is making a pitch for the "you know, the 2010-15 government wasn't so bad" vote. Given what happened in 2015, it's sort of understandable that the Lib Dems aren't saying it out loud, I guess.
The 2010-15 Government was reasonably stable, both in terms of membership (idiots like Huhne aside) and policy. It was entirely wrong on tuition fees and children's issues (two child policy and, especially, Sure Start) and indeed on financial cutbacks generally, though.
Two child cap was after the 2015 election, wasn't it? Agree on Sure Start, though.
As for austerity in general, something had to happen and none of it would have been pretty. But it has become harder to justify as a five year response to a crisis has rolled out three times as long.
Yup, just checked. 2017. You're right.
Whether Osborne's 'economic crisis' would have last as long has to be one of those great unknowns. What wouldn't have happened under the Coalition, of course, was the Brexit Referendum.
Vice President Kamala Harris has stormed into contention in the fast-growing and diverse states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, not long after Donald J. Trump had seemed on the verge of running away with those states when President Biden was still the Democratic nominee.
The new polls from The New York Times and Siena College show how quickly Ms. Harris has reshaped the terrain of 2024 and thrust the Sun Belt back to the center of the battleground-state map.
NY Times
GA still looks fucked and NV is bad but if she can hold AZ and gain NC she can lose either PA or WI+MI.
Why does anyone believe anything the current GOP says ?
I got in touch with 10 school districts around Minnesota. All 10 said their schools do not provide tampons in boys' bathrooms, because the law signed by Gov. Tim Walz does not actually require schools to provide tampons in boys' bathrooms: https://x.com/ddale8/status/1824542328649818255
I may be the only person in the world who thinks this, but...
Maybe they should require schools to provide tampons in boys' bathrooms?
Gets the weird ick factor out the way educates them on biological reality.
Women's health doesn't need to be a big secret, does it?
Of course, my post is somewhat in jest and exactly the trigger-the-libs reaction the American right want as they desperately try to engineer culture war wedge issues for electoral advantage.
That strategy worked for them for a while, but I sense it may be losing its effectiveness.
or maybe not.
America really is a foreign country with its own unique political culture.
I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
Isn't it always the case that the public don't care about the Opposition until the government screws up and then they start taking notice?
At this point, basically all the public wants is for the Tories to shut up and and disappear for a year or two...
True, but they need to sort themselves out to take advantage for when that time arrives. Traditionally when parties lose they go in the wrong direction for sorting themselves out (not right or left wing enough) and then correct themselves coming back to the centre.
They are being challenged by LDs and Reform for voters going forward. Actually all they need is to become competent.
Competency is a very difficult thing to demonstrate in opposition. This is what will likely hold them back - they were incompetent, and that image is going to be hard to shake.
It’s why they are probably better in the next two years being reactive to events and to shoring up opposition votes.
Even the quality of Vlad's conscript social media warriors seems to be dropping.
Nearly as bad as the poor conscript soldiers sent to defend Kursk. 2,500 captured PoWs for the Ukranians this week, because the untrained conscripts get scared witless when encountering an actual enemy army shooting in their direction.
I don’t think you should launch ad hominem attacks on any ethnic group but it takes a generational political anti-talent to come for the Irish at a police association
Even the quality of Vlad's conscript social media warriors seems to be dropping.
Nearly as bad as the poor conscript soldiers sent to defend Kursk. 2,500 captured PoWs for the Ukranians this week, because the untrained conscripts get scared witless when encountering an actual enemy army shooting in their direction.
Any Russian with any sense would surrender. No point dying for Vlad's stupid and pointless war.
I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
One other question we might want to ask ourselves is, how long does Ed Davey intend to stay as Leader of the Liberal Democrats? He's 58 and five years from now will be 63.
This is not trivial because I think I'm right in saying he is the only current member of the current LD parliamentary party to have served in cabinet.
Ed is but a youngster. It was not that long ago when posters were pondering who would replace Johnson when he finally called it a day midway through his fifth term.
They meant school terms. (Yes, I know, 3 years = 9 terms.)
Damn! They could have been right after all. Maybe Boris was only in Parliament for five terms. Henley 2001 – 2008 is two terms, then he was Mayor for a bit, then Uxbridge 2015 – 2022 which is three terms, and 2 + 3 = 5. But as MP not PM.
Isn't it always the case that the public don't care about the Opposition until the government screws up and then they start taking notice?
At this point, basically all the public wants is for the Tories to shut up and and disappear for a year or two...
True, but they need to sort themselves out to take advantage for when that time arrives. Traditionally when parties lose they go in the wrong direction for sorting themselves out (not right or left wing enough) and then correct themselves coming back to the centre.
They are being challenged by LDs and Reform for voters going forward. Actually all they need is to become competent.
Competency is a very difficult thing to demonstrate in opposition. This is what will likely hold them back - they were incompetent, and that image is going to be hard to shake.
It’s why they are probably better in the next two years being reactive to events and to shoring up opposition votes.
Agree hence the like, but two points:
a) Get a competent sensible leader as this is the one thing people do notice
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
If the journalist had actually read the report it would have found that some churches are referring to themselves as ‘congregations’ rather than churches to emphasise the difference between the people and the building, the former being more important to them.
Hardly controversial.
A salutary lesson into the accuracy of Telegraph journalism.
There may be a limited audience for this on PB the next day , however ...
To understand the Telegraph, it's notable of the last 31 articles tagged "Church of England" by the Telegraph, only ONE has been written by their Religious Affairs (OK - Social and Religions Affairs) correspondent, who would hopefully know something about the subject addressed. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/church-of-england/
I don't understand why the Telegraph are trying to stir the pot in August with a tiny irrelevant facet of a report that came out in April. They can't even get that right - the complaint is that "church" or "congregation" is being replaced with "worshipping community".
I met the term "worshipping community" in conversation with both RC and Anglican University Chaplains in 1985-6, and it has been in normal use since before then, as a way of describing the 'church community' in the CofE that does not have a strong "gathered membership" understanding (unlike RC and Evangelical, for example), and thinks of the whole geographical as in some sense "us". And needs a term to represent those with links to the church.
The report itself is linked below, and it is really interesting ... if you are interested in how ecclesiology / missiology is developing in 2022-2024 in the UK. They have feedback from 11 Dioceses (from 42) who have supported 900 projects between them over the last decade. The salient takeaway for me is that engagement needs to be more even outside the evangelical wing (both hands-up and hands-down parts!) of the CofE.
I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
Certainly Reeves has had a very poor start imho.
We'll be better able to judge that when we see the budget in October. The pay deals are troubling but the Union paymasters are seeking their dues. The government is also looking a soft touch which is triggering more rounds of strikes. The decisions about cancelling various investment projects was also worrying but there is no doubt money is extremely tight. I suspect the differences between Hunt and Reeves are going to be in the margins. There is very little room to manoeuvre.
Straight trenches? Surely they've been outmoded for, what, 110 years or so?
Shows you both the experience and level of training this cannon fodder is being provided. Survival on the modern battlefield requires a lot of skill and a lot of luck.
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
Don’t they have any old stocks lying around, that don’t cost anything other than the fuel to deliver them? The Ukranians aren’t too fussy.
It might cost them their nice little earners from Certain Persons, no?
(I'm surely not alone in thinking the Americans are really missing a trick by not pointing out much of the stuff they're sending Ukraine is obsolete and it's cheaper to give it away than scrap it. Not only would that kneecap the Republican opposition by showing it for what it is, but it would also be much more embarrassing and difficult for the Russians to explain why they can't match equipment the Americans think is no use.)
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
What rubbish. German debt as a percentage of GDP is a fraction of other large economies. Plenty of scope for deficit spending for a while whilst there is a war in Europe.
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
"...Germany is on the back foot, and although it will help it will be little and late. Poland is on the front foot, is motivated, able to assist, and can scale..."
I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
Certainly Reeves has had a very poor start imho.
We'll be better able to judge that when we see the budget in October. The pay deals are troubling but the Union paymasters are seeking their dues. The government is also looking a soft touch which is triggering more rounds of strikes. The decisions about cancelling various investment projects was also worrying but there is no doubt money is extremely tight. I suspect the differences between Hunt and Reeves are going to be in the margins. There is very little room to manoeuvre.
The budget issues are caused by current account spending, not investment spending. Cutting the investment spending to maintain the current spending, is simply storing up more problems for the future.
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
"...Germany is on the back foot, and although it will help it will be little and late. Poland is on the front foot, is motivated, able to assist, and can scale..."
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
What rubbish. German debt as a percentage of GDP is a fraction of other large economies. Plenty of scope for deficit spending for a while whilst there is a war in Europe.
Every single bit of support up to now has had to be dragged out of Scholz.
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
"...Germany is on the back foot, and although it will help it will be little and late. Poland is on the front foot, is motivated, able to assist, and can scale..."
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
"...Germany is on the back foot, and although it will help it will be little and late. Poland is on the front foot, is motivated, able to assist, and can scale..."
Poland support for Ukraine I don't think is mentioned anywhere near enough. How many Ukraine refugees have they taken?
Since Feb 2022 about 5 million went into Poland. Most then moved to other countries, but about a million remain. Poland delivers aid, Germany delivers excuses.
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
Don’t they have any old stocks lying around, that don’t cost anything other than the fuel to deliver them? The Ukranians aren’t too fussy.
It might cost them their nice little earners from Certain Persons, no?
(I'm surely not alone in thinking the Americans are really missing a trick by not pointing out much of the stuff they're sending Ukraine is obsolete and it's cheaper to give it away than scrap it. Not only would that kneecap the Republican opposition by showing it for what it is, but it would also be much more embarrassing and difficult for the Russians to explain why they can't match equipment the Americans think is no use.)
The US discussion about Ukraine is immensely frustrating. There’s a fringe 10% on each side who don’t actually care much for the country, and 80% in the middle who think we should be helping them. But the political discussion is about the spending of billions of dollars, most of which, if it’s being spent at all as actual money, is being spent in the US supporting local jobs.
Trump was right when he said that NATO countries don’t pull their weight though, there needs to be a serious look at European military capability. Starting with you, Herr Sholz.
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
"...Germany is on the back foot, and although it will help it will be little and late. Poland is on the front foot, is motivated, able to assist, and can scale..."
Poland support for Ukraine I don't think is mentioned anywhere near enough. How many Ukraine refugees have they taken?
Since Feb 2022 about 5 million went into Poland. Most then moved to other countries, but about a million remain. Poland delivers aid, Germany delivers excuses.
Straight trenches? Surely they've been outmoded for, what, 110 years or so?
Shows you both the experience and level of training this cannon fodder is being provided. Survival on the modern battlefield requires a lot of skill and a lot of luck.
When JD Vance says something, remember he may be brainy but he's also a complete idiot with but a shaky grasp of both reality and the truth.
Actually, I think it's the new GOP message - "How dare you laugh ?"
Harris/Walz "white guy taco" joke sparks bizarre Ben Shapiro rant on the danger of experiencing happiness: "you should not find joy in your politicians... movements that seek joy via politicians are generally really really ugly" https://x.com/AriDrennen/status/1824547619739406548
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
"...Germany is on the back foot, and although it will help it will be little and late. Poland is on the front foot, is motivated, able to assist, and can scale..."
Poland support for Ukraine I don't think is mentioned anywhere near enough. How many Ukraine refugees have they taken?
Since Feb 2022 about 5 million went into Poland. Most then moved to other countries, but about a million remain. Poland delivers aid, Germany delivers excuses.
Isn't it always the case that the public don't care about the Opposition until the government screws up and then they start taking notice?
At this point, basically all the public wants is for the Tories to shut up and and disappear for a year or two...
True, but they need to sort themselves out to take advantage for when that time arrives. Traditionally when parties lose they go in the wrong direction for sorting themselves out (not right or left wing enough) and then correct themselves coming back to the centre.
They are being challenged by LDs and Reform for voters going forward. Actually all they need is to become competent.
They are going to be minced at the counties so there is still bad news they have to ride out. At this rate they are not going to be particularly strong in local government either.
When JD Vance says something, remember he may be brainy but he's also a complete idiot with but a shaky grasp of both reality and the truth.
Actually, I think it's the new GOP message - "How dare you laugh ?"
Harris/Walz "white guy taco" joke sparks bizarre Ben Shapiro rant on the danger of experiencing happiness: "you should not find joy in your politicians... movements that seek joy via politicians are generally really really ugly" https://x.com/AriDrennen/status/1824547619739406548
More, I think, 'how dare you laugh at us merely because of the silly things we do?'
I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
Certainly Reeves has had a very poor start imho.
We'll be better able to judge that when we see the budget in October. The pay deals are troubling but the Union paymasters are seeking their dues. The government is also looking a soft touch which is triggering more rounds of strikes. The decisions about cancelling various investment projects was also worrying but there is no doubt money is extremely tight. I suspect the differences between Hunt and Reeves are going to be in the margins. There is very little room to manoeuvre.
The budget issues are caused by current account spending, not investment spending. Cutting the investment spending to maintain the current spending, is simply storing up more problems for the future.
I totally agree and have argued we must cut current spending, not to reduce overall government spending, but to allow more investment to encourage future growth and opportunity. In fairness, Reeves also seemed to get that in her Mais lecture but so far in power she has done the exact opposite. It's disappointing.
In 2 days the situation in the special military operation zone changed dramatically. Western countries suffered multi-billion dollar losses, losing a huge number of HIMARS, PATRIOT and IRIS-T air defense systems. Apparently, Ukraine and its allies will not be able to restore their combat capability after such losses in the near future.
DISASTER5 PATRIOT Launchers, 1 IRIS-T And SU-24 Destroyed By Iskanders Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.08.17
Patel illicits a response from voters, more than any of the others. If the Tories want to remain relevant, then clearly there is only one option:
#Priti4Leader
Given Patel has the worst negatives with voters by far she is the LDs ideal Tory leader
All of the current Tory candidates are good for the Lib Dems. Patel is simply loathed, Badenoch is Patel without the broomstick accessory, but with a growing reputation for underhand dealings, Jenrick is conventional, but the cartoons nastiness makes him very Marmite even amongst Tory supporters and disliked elsewhere. Tugendhat is amiable but comes across as chinless, while Cleverly is a man for whom the very word "hapless" could have been coined. Even if the next Tory leader makes it to the next general election -not a given- the chances of any of these people becoming PM is vanishingly small. So the polls are right, why should anyone care?
Meanwhile there are some very serious new MPs on the Lib Dem benches (a surprising number of ex military, incidentally) and they have hit the ground running with perma-campaigns in held seats and plans to increase the national vote share and take the fight to the next tier of seats. I don´t think I have ever seen the party so fired up.
Meanwhile every day another more Tory members shuffle off this mortal coil and are not replaced. The leadership election should be the perfect time to recruit, but if anyone is doing that, it is not having much impact. If the Tories lose only another 25 seats to the Lib Dems, then Sir Edward Davey is the Leader of His Majesty´s Loyal Opposition and the Tories are done. At this point one can even wonder if the Tories are up for the fight. Europe doing to the Conservative and Unionist Party what Ireland and Asquithian High mindedness did to the Liberal Party.
Interestingly the LDs have continued campaigning in Guildford as if the election was still to happen. A constituency wide leaflet out and daily canvassing.
The Today programme this morning was covering the issue of Tories dying off rather than people moving Conservative as they get older. Didn't seem clear what that was based upon however.
Re the quality of the new MPs I only know a few, but the ones I know are quite impressive. Keep an eye on Chris Coghlan, a young Paddy Ashdown clone.
2nd para, 1st sentence is a factual statement. 2nd statement is me casting doubt on the opinion being expressed in that report. The idea of old Tories dying off has been spun many times before so I am not convinced it is true even this time, but it was what was being reported.
3rd statement is my opinion, but how would you know it is pants? You don't know who the ones I know are and you almost certainly don't know them personally 500 miles away and a quick look at Chris Coghlan's CV will tell you why he looks like a young Paddy Ashdown clone whether you like him or rate him at all.
So what bit was actually pants then?
The jest went right over your head then?
Oh I just got it. Doh.
Well I wasted a huge number of words defending my post that didn't need defending.
Isn't it always the case that the public don't care about the Opposition until the government screws up and then they start taking notice?
At this point, basically all the public wants is for the Tories to shut up and and disappear for a year or two...
True, but they need to sort themselves out to take advantage for when that time arrives. Traditionally when parties lose they go in the wrong direction for sorting themselves out (not right or left wing enough) and then correct themselves coming back to the centre.
They are being challenged by LDs and Reform for voters going forward. Actually all they need is to become competent.
They are going to be minced at the counties so there is still bad news they have to ride out. At this rate they are not going to be particularly strong in local government either.
Given that the baseline is Peak Vaccine Hero Boris, they'll appear to do badly even if they actually do OK, which is a long way above how they're actually doing.
I like the complacency here by Tories regarding the seats the LDs won off them. 4 - 5 years is a long time and the pendulum may swing back and obliterate the LDs once more because of whatever.
But if you want then back you are going to have to work them or rely on luck.
As @Cicero said there are some impressive LDs elected and they haven't stopped working the seats since the election. Interestingly in Guildford we have continued canvassing and the results show a big increase in support. Now that is probably just a winners bonus that will fade and I assume only happening in seats we won because there is no obvious national swing. But if the Tories want it back they are either going to have to rely on the luck of changing fortunes or work their arses off, which they weren't able to do at the General Election because of lack of volunteers.
Next year is the Counties. The Tories are likely to take a hammering there because they are defending gains. I fully expect the Tories to lose Surrey County Council for only the second time ever and in 1993 they were still the largest party. I suspect they won't be in 2025 and there is an outside chance the LDs may take it. That will be a challenge for the new leader early in their leadership.
If things are going to change it is going to take time. 4 - 5 years may be enough. It might not be and it may get worse.
You and @Cicero are core praetorian activist guard of the Liberal Democrats, so it's no wonder you want to big up your seats.
To hold them you'd have to move much further to the Right than you'd ever be comfortable doing, and that'd involve things like consistently voting with the Tories against Labour budget measures.
Instead, I expect little Sir Echo with a bit more sandals. You know, the usual.
I was trying to be factual. The Tories might recover well and then we will be defending seats and losing them and not going for more gains. But I accept that. But by the sounds of it we are planning for both scenarios (moving forward or trying to defend) whereas the Tories seem (from the posts here) to be just relying on it just sorting itself out by Labour's popularity dropping. The latter is a given in time, the former not. For instance we had to work really hard at squeezing the Labour at this election because of their popularity. It was a real challenge even in obvious target seats, not helped by the stupid polls predicting Labour winning places like Wantage and Didcot and Guildford and Woking, etc. That will be easier next time and with other opportunities opening up as labour's fortunes inevitably fall.
In terms of moving to the right I am a liberal not a social democrat so I might be biased here, but I hope the LDs provide a distinctive opposition. They certainly won't be Labour's little helpers.
We will see and it may become academic, but the Tories shouldn't rely on it all working out in the end. It may do and that will be our loss, but if it doesn't that will be their own fault if they do nothing about it and just rely on fate.
Fair enough, an interesting post I did not expect.
If the Liberals can develop an interesting opposition then perhaps more options could be on the table. But, I'll believe that when I see it.
The Tories don’t seem to have yet internalised how much of it is down to their behaviour.
Casting around for a new leader or some new shiny policy - whether aimed at LibDem voters or Reform voters - misses the mark if the Tories don’t have a hard think about how they came to be seen - and (a case can be made) came to be - a bunch of liars, weirdos, perverts and crooks.
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
Isn't it always the case that the public don't care about the Opposition until the government screws up and then they start taking notice?
At this point, basically all the public wants is for the Tories to shut up and and disappear for a year or two...
True, but they need to sort themselves out to take advantage for when that time arrives. Traditionally when parties lose they go in the wrong direction for sorting themselves out (not right or left wing enough) and then correct themselves coming back to the centre.
They are being challenged by LDs and Reform for voters going forward. Actually all they need is to become competent.
They are going to be minced at the counties so there is still bad news they have to ride out. At this rate they are not going to be particularly strong in local government either.
I talked about this down thread and previously. The Tories have only lost Surrey CC once in 1993 and even then they were the largest party. In May they are going to lose it again, but this time they won't be the largest party either. There is a chance (only a chance) that the LDs may take control. The Tories don't control any boroughs in Surrey. Not one. In several like Mole Valley, Woking, Surrey Heath there is near LD dominance. However that does make it difficult for the LDs in 2026 onwards.
I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
Certainly Reeves has had a very poor start imho.
We'll be better able to judge that when we see the budget in October. The pay deals are troubling but the Union paymasters are seeking their dues. The government is also looking a soft touch which is triggering more rounds of strikes. The decisions about cancelling various investment projects was also worrying but there is no doubt money is extremely tight. I suspect the differences between Hunt and Reeves are going to be in the margins. There is very little room to manoeuvre.
The budget issues are caused by current account spending, not investment spending. Cutting the investment spending to maintain the current spending, is simply storing up more problems for the future.
I totally agree and have argued we must cut current spending, not to reduce overall government spending, but to allow more investment to encourage future growth and opportunity. In fairness, Reeves also seemed to get that in her Mais lecture but so far in power she has done the exact opposite. It's disappointing.
We need to see what happens in October. So far, we've really only had a partial reversal of the "close our eyes, stick fingers in our ears and pretend it's not happening" fiscal policy of the last government.
Most of the investments that were cut were unlikely to get beyond lines on a map, and something roughly like the public sector pay rises had to happen, which is why the pay bodies recommended them.
I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
Certainly Reeves has had a very poor start imho.
We'll be better able to judge that when we see the budget in October. The pay deals are troubling but the Union paymasters are seeking their dues. The government is also looking a soft touch which is triggering more rounds of strikes. The decisions about cancelling various investment projects was also worrying but there is no doubt money is extremely tight. I suspect the differences between Hunt and Reeves are going to be in the margins. There is very little room to manoeuvre.
The budget issues are caused by current account spending, not investment spending. Cutting the investment spending to maintain the current spending, is simply storing up more problems for the future.
I totally agree and have argued we must cut current spending, not to reduce overall government spending, but to allow more investment to encourage future growth and opportunity. In fairness, Reeves also seemed to get that in her Mais lecture but so far in power she has done the exact opposite. It's disappointing.
I find her rushing to "spin" the more disappointing element. She has undermined her credibility within the first week. It shows us she will be a political CoE rather than a reforming one at a time when we need a reformer.
If you are not in the clique then you can be expelled for the least miniscule imagined infraction as defined by the clique of clowns running the keystone cop show
I like the complacency here by Tories regarding the seats the LDs won off them. 4 - 5 years is a long time and the pendulum may swing back and obliterate the LDs once more because of whatever.
But if you want then back you are going to have to work them or rely on luck.
As @Cicero said there are some impressive LDs elected and they haven't stopped working the seats since the election. Interestingly in Guildford we have continued canvassing and the results show a big increase in support. Now that is probably just a winners bonus that will fade and I assume only happening in seats we won because there is no obvious national swing. But if the Tories want it back they are either going to have to rely on the luck of changing fortunes or work their arses off, which they weren't able to do at the General Election because of lack of volunteers.
Next year is the Counties. The Tories are likely to take a hammering there because they are defending gains. I fully expect the Tories to lose Surrey County Council for only the second time ever and in 1993 they were still the largest party. I suspect they won't be in 2025 and there is an outside chance the LDs may take it. That will be a challenge for the new leader early in their leadership.
If things are going to change it is going to take time. 4 - 5 years may be enough. It might not be and it may get worse.
You and @Cicero are core praetorian activist guard of the Liberal Democrats, so it's no wonder you want to big up your seats.
To hold them you'd have to move much further to the Right than you'd ever be comfortable doing, and that'd involve things like consistently voting with the Tories against Labour budget measures.
Instead, I expect little Sir Echo with a bit more sandals. You know, the usual.
I was trying to be factual. The Tories might recover well and then we will be defending seats and losing them and not going for more gains. But I accept that. But by the sounds of it we are planning for both scenarios (moving forward or trying to defend) whereas the Tories seem (from the posts here) to be just relying on it just sorting itself out by Labour's popularity dropping. The latter is a given in time, the former not. For instance we had to work really hard at squeezing the Labour at this election because of their popularity. It was a real challenge even in obvious target seats, not helped by the stupid polls predicting Labour winning places like Wantage and Didcot and Guildford and Woking, etc. That will be easier next time and with other opportunities opening up as labour's fortunes inevitably fall.
In terms of moving to the right I am a liberal not a social democrat so I might be biased here, but I hope the LDs provide a distinctive opposition. They certainly won't be Labour's little helpers.
We will see and it may become academic, but the Tories shouldn't rely on it all working out in the end. It may do and that will be our loss, but if it doesn't that will be their own fault if they do nothing about it and just rely on fate.
Fair enough, an interesting post I did not expect.
If the Liberals can develop an interesting opposition then perhaps more options could be on the table. But, I'll believe that when I see it.
The Tories don’t seem to have yet internalised how much of it is down to their behaviour.
Casting around for a new leader or some new shiny policy - whether aimed at LibDem voters or Reform voters - misses the mark if the Tories don’t have a hard think about how they came to be seen - and (a case can be made) came to be - a bunch of liars, weirdos, perverts and crooks.
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
They have a note from their mum. They're excused war.
In fairness to Schultz, there are good reasons for this: he's dependent on uncooperative coalition partners and there is a *lot* on institutional pressure in Germany to not do anything
However he has been in the job for nearly three years and he should have climbed the learning curve by now. "Announcing things in speeches" != "getting things done"
I think this Parliament will be really interesting from an opposition perspective because it remains to be seen where the most effective opposition is going to come from, and opposition voices are very diverse now. I could quite easily see a situation where the opposition on the right coalesces around Reform, OR the Tories, or remains deeply divided. Similarly on the left it will be really interesting to see how the Greens and LDs do.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
Certainly Reeves has had a very poor start imho.
We'll be better able to judge that when we see the budget in October. The pay deals are troubling but the Union paymasters are seeking their dues. The government is also looking a soft touch which is triggering more rounds of strikes. The decisions about cancelling various investment projects was also worrying but there is no doubt money is extremely tight. I suspect the differences between Hunt and Reeves are going to be in the margins. There is very little room to manoeuvre.
The budget issues are caused by current account spending, not investment spending. Cutting the investment spending to maintain the current spending, is simply storing up more problems for the future.
I totally agree and have argued we must cut current spending, not to reduce overall government spending, but to allow more investment to encourage future growth and opportunity. In fairness, Reeves also seemed to get that in her Mais lecture but so far in power she has done the exact opposite. It's disappointing.
We need to see what happens in October. So far, we've really only had a partial reversal of the "close our eyes, stick fingers in our ears and pretend it's not happening" fiscal policy of the last government.
Most of the investments that were cut were unlikely to get beyond lines on a map, and something roughly like the public sector pay rises had to happen, which is why the pay bodies recommended them.
I said something very similar in my first post on this. October is when we will see the shape and the priorities. I hope she does well. As a country we have some serious, deep rooted problems that the previous government did not address, principally productivity, investment, training and excess consumption leading to a serious trade deficit. I don't envy her her task.
In 2 days the situation in the special military operation zone changed dramatically. Western countries suffered multi-billion dollar losses, losing a huge number of HIMARS, PATRIOT and IRIS-T air defense systems. Apparently, Ukraine and its allies will not be able to restore their combat capability after such losses in the near future.
DISASTER5 PATRIOT Launchers, 1 IRIS-T And SU-24 Destroyed By Iskanders Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.08.17
Man, he didn't take long to get onto his "specialist subject:
He's right though. The number of HIMARS and other rocket systems that have been destroyed on Russian bridges, train lines, military columns and defensive positions over the last week is remarkable.
In 2 days the situation in the special military operation zone changed dramatically. Western countries suffered multi-billion dollar losses, losing a huge number of HIMARS, PATRIOT and IRIS-T air defense systems. Apparently, Ukraine and its allies will not be able to restore their combat capability after such losses in the near future.
DISASTER5 PATRIOT Launchers, 1 IRIS-T And SU-24 Destroyed By Iskanders Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.08.17
Man, he didn't take long to get onto his "specialist subject:
He's right though. The number of HIMARS and other rocket systems that have been destroyed on Russian bridges, train lines, military columns and defensive positions over the last week is remarkable.
Indeed. Look at the damage this Russian bridge did to a poor HIMARS rocket.
I hope the births, deaths and marriages certificates are okay.
They were moved out 54 years ago.
Courtauld Institute - art collections, library, archives, though. No idea if it is in the endangered bit but fire hoses also do a lot of damage esp if used high up as in a roof fire.
I hope the births, deaths and marriages certificates are okay.
They were moved out 54 years ago.
Courtauld Institute - art collections, library, archives, though. No idea if it is in the endangered bit but fire hoses also do a lot of damage esp if used high up as in a roof fire.
Hopefully they have a system in place to get the most valuable stuff out in an emergency. Yes, water damage can be as bad as fire damage.
In 2 days the situation in the special military operation zone changed dramatically. Western countries suffered multi-billion dollar losses, losing a huge number of HIMARS, PATRIOT and IRIS-T air defense systems. Apparently, Ukraine and its allies will not be able to restore their combat capability after such losses in the near future.
DISASTER5 PATRIOT Launchers, 1 IRIS-T And SU-24 Destroyed By Iskanders Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.08.17
Man, he didn't take long to get onto his "specialist subject:
He's right though. The number of HIMARS and other rocket systems that have been destroyed on Russian bridges, train lines, military columns and defensive positions over the last week is remarkable.
Indeed. Look at the damage this Russian bridge did to a poor HIMARS rocket.
As for Lib Dems overtaking Conservatives, that needs about 25 gains by the Peril on the Yellow-Blue battlefield. That means overturning majorities of 8000/8% or so, and winning in places like Surrey East and New Forest West.
A few months ago, that would have seemed crazy, but if the Lib Dems can properly lean into their new status as the party of Nice Britain, kind of like the Aussie Teals, who knows? The Conservatives have got to do something about those seats, because 70 Lib Dems are already a pretty effective block on a Conservative majority.
Lib Dems becoming second party I think depends on Labour winning further seats from the Conservatives, which by is by no means impossible. It does depend on what happens with Reform, Labour remaining a lot more popular relative to the Conservatives and continued Labour/LD/Green tactical voting.
On the other hand I could also Lib Dems winning more seats off the Conservatives as that party wins seats off Labour if Labour goes into decline. The Lib Dems will become challengers at Labour's expense in some Tory seats.
Why would this form of Labour government, pursuing classic socialism, appeal even further to Tory voters?
Some people have taken leave of their senses.
This is a genuine question, for all Tories. Why do you think the Tories had their worst result in terms of seats since 1761?
Because they had lost the right to be heard.
They weren’t considered for government because they weee tired, divided and incompetent
I'm inclined to say, 'well, they would say that, wouldn't they?'
Not forgetting quite a lot of free schools were private schools that moved to state provision.
It's instructive that they generally aren't considered better than standard schools or spurred standard schools to improve education, but then you could make the same point about academy schools and academy chains.
Bottom line is, it was a very Whitehall idea that change the management structure and things will improve. It didn't occur to them to ask if actually the problems were rather more complex than that.
In 2 days the situation in the special military operation zone changed dramatically. Western countries suffered multi-billion dollar losses, losing a huge number of HIMARS, PATRIOT and IRIS-T air defense systems. Apparently, Ukraine and its allies will not be able to restore their combat capability after such losses in the near future.
DISASTER5 PATRIOT Launchers, 1 IRIS-T And SU-24 Destroyed By Iskanders Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.08.17
Man, he didn't take long to get onto his "specialist subject:
He's right though. The number of HIMARS and other rocket systems that have been destroyed on Russian bridges, train lines, military columns and defensive positions over the last week is remarkable.
Indeed. Look at the damage this Russian bridge did to a poor HIMARS rocket.
If the Tweet is right it was launched by a fighter and not a rocket.
Remarkable what having air superiority used well can do.
Yes there’s actually some confusion about whether it was a ground-based or air-based rocket that took out that bridge, but the bridge got taken out nonetheless.
Air superiority is awfully close for Ukraine now, and the first few F-16s are in theatre as well. The Russians lost another one of their bomber aircraft yesterday, crashed just after takeoff, and there’s rumours around that they don’t have an awful lot of an Air Force left, which would be astonishing if true.
As someone said earlier, they’ve gone quickly from having the second best military force in the world, to having the second best military force in Ukraine, to having the second best military force in Russia.
I like the complacency here by Tories regarding the seats the LDs won off them. 4 - 5 years is a long time and the pendulum may swing back and obliterate the LDs once more because of whatever.
But if you want then back you are going to have to work them or rely on luck.
As @Cicero said there are some impressive LDs elected and they haven't stopped working the seats since the election. Interestingly in Guildford we have continued canvassing and the results show a big increase in support. Now that is probably just a winners bonus that will fade and I assume only happening in seats we won because there is no obvious national swing. But if the Tories want it back they are either going to have to rely on the luck of changing fortunes or work their arses off, which they weren't able to do at the General Election because of lack of volunteers.
Next year is the Counties. The Tories are likely to take a hammering there because they are defending gains. I fully expect the Tories to lose Surrey County Council for only the second time ever and in 1993 they were still the largest party. I suspect they won't be in 2025 and there is an outside chance the LDs may take it. That will be a challenge for the new leader early in their leadership.
If things are going to change it is going to take time. 4 - 5 years may be enough. It might not be and it may get worse.
Since Labour took over my local council in 2022 they’ve stopped picking up rubbish from bins (curb side only despite the foxes that they have failed to control) and reduced collections from 2x per week to once every 2 weeks.
It’s about the only service I get from the council and their changes have materially worsened their offering
I can clearly see TSE's double entendres at 50 paces, but picking out the suggestive offence Daily Mail readers captured in an instant on this Zara children's T - shirt took some deep mind searching for me.
I can clearly see TSE's double entendres at 50 paces, but picking out the suggestive offence Daily Mail readers captured in an instant on this Zara children's T - shirt took some deep mind searching for me.
I like the complacency here by Tories regarding the seats the LDs won off them. 4 - 5 years is a long time and the pendulum may swing back and obliterate the LDs once more because of whatever.
But if you want then back you are going to have to work them or rely on luck.
As @Cicero said there are some impressive LDs elected and they haven't stopped working the seats since the election. Interestingly in Guildford we have continued canvassing and the results show a big increase in support. Now that is probably just a winners bonus that will fade and I assume only happening in seats we won because there is no obvious national swing. But if the Tories want it back they are either going to have to rely on the luck of changing fortunes or work their arses off, which they weren't able to do at the General Election because of lack of volunteers.
Next year is the Counties. The Tories are likely to take a hammering there because they are defending gains. I fully expect the Tories to lose Surrey County Council for only the second time ever and in 1993 they were still the largest party. I suspect they won't be in 2025 and there is an outside chance the LDs may take it. That will be a challenge for the new leader early in their leadership.
If things are going to change it is going to take time. 4 - 5 years may be enough. It might not be and it may get worse.
Since Labour took over my local council in 2022 they’ve stopped picking up rubbish from bins (curb side only despite the foxes that they have failed to control) and reduced collections from 2x per week to once every 2 weeks.
It’s about the only service I get from the council and their changes have materially worsened their offering
But everybody does need to remember that all local councils have been starved of funds by the recent Conservative governments. All public services have been.
The upside, if you are a Conservative supporter, is that recent governments have done everything possible to create tax avoidance loopholes for the mega-wealthy, at the same time as they have enabled foreigners to take control of most of our infrastructure. Who have then been allowed to exploit their position for all they are worth.
If you are a Conservative, I am sure you think that was worth it. So please stop complaining and put the blame for inadequate public services firmly where it belongs.
In 2 days the situation in the special military operation zone changed dramatically. Western countries suffered multi-billion dollar losses, losing a huge number of HIMARS, PATRIOT and IRIS-T air defense systems. Apparently, Ukraine and its allies will not be able to restore their combat capability after such losses in the near future.
DISASTER5 PATRIOT Launchers, 1 IRIS-T And SU-24 Destroyed By Iskanders Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.08.17
Man, he didn't take long to get onto his "specialist subject:
He's right though. The number of HIMARS and other rocket systems that have been destroyed on Russian bridges, train lines, military columns and defensive positions over the last week is remarkable.
Indeed. Look at the damage this Russian bridge did to a poor HIMARS rocket.
If the Tweet is right it was launched by a fighter and not a rocket.
Remarkable what having air superiority used well can do.
Yes there’s actually some confusion about whether it was a ground-based or air-based rocket that took out that bridge, but the bridge got taken out nonetheless.
Air superiority is awfully close for Ukraine now, and the first few F-16s are in theatre as well. The Russians lost another one of their bomber aircraft yesterday, crashed just after takeoff, and there’s rumours around that they don’t have an awful lot of an Air Force left, which would be astonishing if true.
As someone said earlier, they’ve gone quickly from having the second best military force in the world, to having the second best military force in Ukraine, to having the second best military force in Russia.
I think Ukraine lost a MIG-29 yesterday. I don't know if it was from accident or warfighting.
I hope the births, deaths and marriages certificates are okay.
They were moved out 54 years ago.
Where are they now?
I’m actually quite interested in the answer to this.
Before the internet/pb/social media, it’s the kind of factoid you’d only pick up from obscure books, or a university professor, or a dinner party conversation with a very weird person. Or you’d have to know a civil servant in the archives department, or something.
I like the complacency here by Tories regarding the seats the LDs won off them. 4 - 5 years is a long time and the pendulum may swing back and obliterate the LDs once more because of whatever.
But if you want then back you are going to have to work them or rely on luck.
As @Cicero said there are some impressive LDs elected and they haven't stopped working the seats since the election. Interestingly in Guildford we have continued canvassing and the results show a big increase in support. Now that is probably just a winners bonus that will fade and I assume only happening in seats we won because there is no obvious national swing. But if the Tories want it back they are either going to have to rely on the luck of changing fortunes or work their arses off, which they weren't able to do at the General Election because of lack of volunteers.
Next year is the Counties. The Tories are likely to take a hammering there because they are defending gains. I fully expect the Tories to lose Surrey County Council for only the second time ever and in 1993 they were still the largest party. I suspect they won't be in 2025 and there is an outside chance the LDs may take it. That will be a challenge for the new leader early in their leadership.
If things are going to change it is going to take time. 4 - 5 years may be enough. It might not be and it may get worse.
Since Labour took over my local council in 2022 they’ve stopped picking up rubbish from bins (curb side only despite the foxes that they have failed to control) and reduced collections from 2x per week to once every 2 weeks.
It’s about the only service I get from the council and their changes have materially worsened their offering
But everybody does need to remember that all local councils have been starved of funds by the recent Conservative governments. All public services have been.
The upside, if you are a Conservative supporter, is that recent governments have done everything possible to create tax avoidance loopholes for the mega-wealthy, at the same time as they have enabled foreigners to take control of most of our infrastructure. Who have then been allowed to exploit their position for all they are worth.
If you are a Conservative, I am sure you think that was worth it. So please stop complaining and put the blame for inadequate public services firmly where it belongs.
Health hasn't been starved of funds. That's why other public services have been cut in real terms almost everywhere, even while the tax burden has grown.
Germany has frozen its military aid to Ukraine, claiming that a domestic budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Kyiv with new weapons.
What does the story actually say ? A far as I understand it, Scholz is refusing requests for additional funding for aid; they haven’t “frozen” actual aid - and will still provide more assistance this year than we will.
He’s very wrong to do so, IMO, but the arms Germany continues to supply will be crucial for Ukraine.
I hope the births, deaths and marriages certificates are okay.
They were moved out 54 years ago.
Where are they now?
I’m actually quite interested in the answer to this.
Before the internet/pb/social media, it’s the kind of factoid you’d only pick up from obscure books, or a university professor, or a dinner party conversation with a very weird person. Or you’d have to know a civil servant in the archives department, or something.
HMG (last incarnation) was hoping to shred them and use digital scans alone. Not sure of the current state of the proposal.
If you are not in the clique then you can be expelled for the least miniscule imagined infraction as defined by the clique of clowns running the keystone cop show
TBF, Mason has been a loose cannon for a long time and given to inflammatory remarks, but hitherto been indulged as his previous targets have been outside the tent rather than within it. Looks like he's blown himself up this time tho.
Comments
If you were curious how you get 102 russians to leave their bunker and surrender here is how.
https://x.com/osint_69/status/1824720253617668511
It's much scarier.
At this point, basically all the public wants is for the Tories to shut up and and disappear for a year or two...
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Just_asking_questions
I got in touch with 10 school districts around Minnesota. All 10 said their schools do not provide tampons in boys' bathrooms, because the law signed by Gov. Tim Walz does not actually require schools to provide tampons in boys' bathrooms:
https://x.com/ddale8/status/1824542328649818255
The new polls from The New York Times and Siena College show how quickly Ms. Harris has reshaped the terrain of 2024 and thrust the Sun Belt back to the center of the battleground-state map.
NY Times
How much of the problem is that a small minority are prepared to flat out lie about stuff, a different small minority are happy to reward liars, and the majority are a bit too trusting to check all these lies?
They are being challenged by LDs and Reform for voters going forward. Actually all they need is to become competent.
You're right.
Whether Osborne's 'economic crisis' would have last as long has to be one of those great unknowns.
What wouldn't have happened under the Coalition, of course, was the Brexit Referendum.
Maybe they should require schools to provide tampons in boys' bathrooms?
Gets the weird ick factor out the way educates them on biological reality.
Women's health doesn't need to be a big secret, does it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAvcsgfa6XI
/riskynicheopinion
--
Of course, my post is somewhat in jest and exactly the trigger-the-libs reaction the American right want as they desperately try to engineer culture war wedge issues for electoral advantage.
That strategy worked for them for a while, but I sense it may be losing its effectiveness.
or maybe not.
America really is a foreign country with its own unique political culture.
What I do sense is that Labour are more vulnerable than any incoming government for some time. They entered office on a historically low proportion of the vote, and the jury is still very much out on how they are going to handle the business of government - so far, although we don’t have much to go on, it feels decidedly mixed. Peoples votes are more fluid nowadays too.
I really don’t want to make any predictions for the next GE yet. In a years time I may feel a little more confident.
"...Captain John Patrick Mason, General Sir, of Her Majesty's SAS. Retired of course...I have a unique knowledge of this prison facility: I was formerly a guest here..."
It’s why they are probably better in the next two years being reactive to events and to shoring up opposition votes.
I don’t think you should launch ad hominem attacks on any ethnic group but it takes a generational political anti-talent to come for the Irish at a police association
https://x.com/Leahgreenb/status/1824587507109073112
Damn! They could have been right after all. Maybe Boris was only in Parliament for five terms. Henley 2001 – 2008 is two terms, then he was Mayor for a bit, then Uxbridge 2015 – 2022 which is three terms, and 2 + 3 = 5. But as MP not PM.
a) Get a competent sensible leader as this is the one thing people do notice
b) People have short memories (sometimes)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/
To understand the Telegraph, it's notable of the last 31 articles tagged "Church of England" by the Telegraph, only ONE has been written by their Religious Affairs (OK - Social and Religions Affairs) correspondent, who would hopefully know something about the subject addressed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/church-of-england/
I don't understand why the Telegraph are trying to stir the pot in August with a tiny irrelevant facet of a report that came out in April. They can't even get that right - the complaint is that "church" or "congregation" is being replaced with "worshipping community".
I met the term "worshipping community" in conversation with both RC and Anglican University Chaplains in 1985-6, and it has been in normal use since before then, as a way of describing the 'church community' in the CofE that does not have a strong "gathered membership" understanding (unlike RC and Evangelical, for example), and thinks of the whole geographical as in some sense "us". And needs a term to represent those with links to the church.
The report itself is linked below, and it is really interesting ... if you are interested in how ecclesiology / missiology is developing in 2022-2024 in the UK. They have feedback from 11 Dioceses (from 42) who have supported 900 projects between them over the last decade. The salient takeaway for me is that engagement needs to be more even outside the evangelical wing (both hands-up and hands-down parts!) of the CofE.
Report: https://ccx.org.uk/content/impact-of-new-things/
The decisions about cancelling various investment projects was also worrying but there is no doubt money is extremely tight. I suspect the differences between Hunt and Reeves are going to be in the margins. There is very little room to manoeuvre.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_rescue_ship_Kommuna
(I'm surely not alone in thinking the Americans are really missing a trick by not pointing out much of the stuff they're sending Ukraine is obsolete and it's cheaper to give it away than scrap it. Not only would that kneecap the Republican opposition by showing it for what it is, but it would also be much more embarrassing and difficult for the Russians to explain why they can't match equipment the Americans think is no use.)
Trump isn't right about much, but his attack on the way some countries don't hold up their part of the bargain re NATO was spot on.
Viewcode, January 2023, see https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/29/the-intermarium/
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1823798990842028174
Wut ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg791g2z8zyo
Was that it? Just that tweet? Or was there more?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1312584/ukrainian-refugees-by-country/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Poland
He just struggles to express - or parse - normal human emotions in ways that aren't super weird.
Trump was right when he said that NATO countries don’t pull their weight though, there needs to be a serious look at European military capability. Starting with you, Herr Sholz.
They have been the 2nd largest provider of military aid, and had already pledged iirc 4 billion Euro for 2024-5.
What is happening in German politics next year?
"How dare you laugh ?"
Harris/Walz "white guy taco" joke sparks bizarre Ben Shapiro rant on the danger of experiencing happiness: "you should not find joy in your politicians... movements that seek joy via politicians are generally really really ugly"
https://x.com/AriDrennen/status/1824547619739406548
The situation is just the same in the USA, perhaps more so with the greater inequality, smaller welfare state and higher cost of food.
And Vance has personal experience of deprivation which allows him to speak with knowledge.
Whether he has any policies to remedy the underlying issues is another matter.
(Just checked the Wiki page;
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_Kingdom_local_elections
There's an awful lot of downside there for the Conservatives, and not much for Labour.)
Casting around for a new leader or some new shiny policy - whether aimed at LibDem voters or Reform voters - misses the mark if the Tories don’t have a hard think about how they came to be seen - and (a case can be made) came to be - a bunch of liars, weirdos, perverts and crooks.
Most of the investments that were cut were unlikely to get beyond lines on a map, and something roughly like the public sector pay rises had to happen, which is why the pay bodies recommended them.
In fairness to Schultz, there are good reasons for this: he's dependent on uncooperative coalition partners and there is a *lot* on institutional pressure in Germany to not do anything
However he has been in the job for nearly three years and he should have climbed the learning curve by now. "Announcing things in speeches" != "getting things done"
15 fire engines and 100 firefighters sent to the scene. Roof looks to be properly on fire.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1824507311446167944
Remarkable what having air superiority used well can do.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/aug/17/goves-free-schools-increase-segregation-and-harm-nearby-schools-says-study
They weren’t considered for government because they weee tired, divided and incompetent
Not forgetting quite a lot of free schools were private schools that moved to state provision.
It's instructive that they generally aren't considered better than standard schools or spurred standard schools to improve education, but then you could make the same point about academy schools and academy chains.
Bottom line is, it was a very Whitehall idea that change the management structure and things will improve. It didn't occur to them to ask if actually the problems were rather more complex than that.
Air superiority is awfully close for Ukraine now, and the first few F-16s are in theatre as well. The Russians lost another one of their bomber aircraft yesterday, crashed just after takeoff, and there’s rumours around that they don’t have an awful lot of an Air Force left, which would be astonishing if true.
As someone said earlier, they’ve gone quickly from having the second best military force in the world, to having the second best military force in Ukraine, to having the second best military force in Russia.
It’s about the only service I get from the council and their changes have materially worsened their offering
Is it me?
I can clearly see TSE's double entendres at 50 paces, but picking out the suggestive offence Daily Mail readers captured in an instant on this Zara children's T - shirt took some deep mind searching for me.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13752747/zara-strawberry-t-shirt-pulled-laura-wilson-kent-bluewater.html?ito=windows-widget-push-notification&ci=592054
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-harris
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
The upside, if you are a Conservative supporter, is that recent governments have done everything possible to create tax avoidance loopholes for the mega-wealthy, at the same time as they have enabled foreigners to take control of most of our infrastructure. Who have then been allowed to exploit their position for all they are worth.
If you are a Conservative, I am sure you think that was worth it. So please stop complaining and put the blame for inadequate public services firmly where it belongs.
https://www.gov.uk/general-register-office
I think there are copies at the National Archives in Kew as well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2001_United_Kingdom_general_election
Before the internet/pb/social media, it’s the kind of factoid you’d only pick up from obscure books, or a university professor, or a dinner party conversation with a very weird person. Or you’d have to know a civil servant in the archives department, or something.
A far as I understand it, Scholz is refusing requests for additional funding for aid; they haven’t “frozen” actual aid - and will still provide more assistance this year than we will.
He’s very wrong to do so, IMO, but the arms Germany continues to supply will be crucial for Ukraine.
https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1824795650313040252
Yes, I *know*.
https://x.com/skynews/status/1824805101401235891