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Vance is looking like a hindrance – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,049
    HYUFD said:

    Yes but that would assume a lower court had already convicted her of a criminal offence and jailed her, yet if she had committed no criminal offence in the first place that would not happen anyway.

    The President has no constitutional powers to sentence and jail individuals himself, immunity just relates to his own liberty from prosecution
    If he is immune from prosecution what is to stop him holding Harris under house arrest and denying any application she is granted for habeus corpus?

    I don't think you really understand the significance of the idea of keeping elected leaders within the law, any more than the Supreme Court do.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    One of the Russian cope strategies online was to say: "We're slowly advancing in the east of Ukraine whilst our great armoured fist, complete with T-14s and SU-57s, is being prepared for the knockout blow on Kyiv / Kharkiv / Odessa!!!!"

    In other words, that Russia had a large force ready to go into Ukraine once they had denuded Ukraine enough.

    I think it's now clear that that was utter copium b/s. The Ukrainians may be being denuded, but the Russians have also been. They don't seem to have a great deal spare.
    They had a Tu-22M3 bomber plane crash on takeoff last night as well. The Soviets had a couple of hundred of these 40 years ago, but God knows how many remain serviceable today - obviously not that one.

    https://x.com/dekunle27/status/1824366515568746723

    I’ve got my hopes up a few times in this war, and my wife is in Ukraine at the moment, but I’m not sure I’ve been more confident than this week, that Ukraine will prevail and quickly.

    Russia now looks like they have nothing serviceable of note left in their military.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    HYUFD said:

    It isn't, Minnesota has voted Democrat at every presidential election since 1976. Ohio voted for Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton twice and Obama twice over the same timeframe even if it voted for Trump last time.

    Biden won Minnesota by 7% in 2020 which was only fractionally less than the 8% Trump won Ohio by
    The Cook PVI for Minnesota is D+1, and for Ohio it is R+6.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149

    Vance brings an understanding of the working class, of success through adversity, of the importance of family.

    He has the backstory of a modern Abraham Lincoln, of the supposed 'American dream' personified.

    Unfortunately Vance is a bit odd and has picked up some extreme views along the way - unsurprisingly with his traumatic background.

    So why weren't these oddities and extreme views picked up on during the selection process ?

    My theory is that Don Jnr and Vance have some sort of bromance based upon family issues - Vance had a difficult upbringing and having Trump as your father might not have been easy.
    I'm not sure about Vance and the working class.

    His characteristics are that he has changed his name and presentation a number of times, has turned his views 180 when it is necessary to get ahead, his accounts are highly questionable, and he got into higher end politics by making himself a billionaire's bitch - which he is still. Since then the weird obsessions have come out.

    I think the working class USA place some value on consistency and - to borrow a word - normalcy. That is not Vance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    'Train drivers offered bumper pay rise from Starmer to end strikes
    The Government has offered a 15 per cent pay rise over three years'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/14/train-drivers-strikes-labour-starmer-payrise/
  • Nigelb said:

    Does he really win on the economy ?
    The Biden Harris administration can point to some pretty decent economic figures; inflation is falling; and there's likely to be at least one interest rate cut before November, possibly two.
    Trump's offering is, putting it generously, incoherent. And his tariff proposals plain nuts.
    Economic reality matters less than economic perceptions.

    The determinant isn't how well the national economy is doing but how well individual voter's think they are doing compared to how well they think they deserve to be doing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,049
    Biden has apparently taken to calling his former rival 'Donald Dump.'

    Genius. It works on so many levels...
  • One of the Russian cope strategies online was to say: "We're slowly advancing in the east of Ukraine whilst our great armoured fist, complete with T-14s and SU-57s, is being prepared for the knockout blow on Kyiv / Kharkiv / Odessa!!!!"

    In other words, that Russia had a large force ready to go into Ukraine once they had denuded Ukraine enough.

    I think it's now clear that that was utter copium b/s. The Ukrainians may be being denuded, but the Russians have also been. They don't seem to have a great deal spare.
    I think the last has also been apparent by how much Orban and other Russian sympathisers have been calling for a ceasefire.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,093
    ydoethur said:

    Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Ukrainians have captured an area about the size of Berkshire. At the same time, they have lost an area the size of England and Wales combined and they seem to be falling back in the south.

    Yes, highly embarrassing for Putin. Makes him look stupid. But it comes with significant risks for Ukraine and it's not wholly clear yet what they expect to get from it, never mind will get.

    It may put an end to the idea of a stalemated war, Korea Mark 2. But given Russia's size and resources that may not be to Ukraine's advantage.
    I'm not getting ahead of myself; there's still a non-negligible chance that this move into Kursk was a terrible strategic decision for Ukraine. Much depends on what the aim(s) of this attack are, and I have no idea which of the options are foremost in the Ukrainian leadership's minds.

    As for the sizes; AIUI Ukraine have, in less than a week, captured more terrain than Russia have in the entirety of this year. And they still appear to be advancing.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    ydoethur said:

    If he is immune from prosecution what is to stop him holding Harris under house arrest and denying any application she is granted for habeus corpus?

    I don't think you really understand the significance of the idea of keeping elected leaders within the law, any more than the Supreme Court do.
    Ideally the entire 'lawfare' thing needs to be dialled down/de-escalated somehow.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,254
    HYUFD said:

    It is reasonably safe for Trump, not necessarily for the GOP.

    Just as Mansfield or Grimsby were reasonably safe for Boris not necessarily for the Tories and now both have Labour MPs again since Boris left
    Right - it is safe for Trump. So in the context of who Trump picks as VP nominee it is less of a swing state than Minnesota for the presidential election. If Trump is replaced as GOP candidate then Ohio might, who knows, probably not, become more of a swing state than Minnesota. But Trump IS still the GOP nominee so in fact Ohio is less of a swing state than Minnesota - until polling says otherwise!
  • ydoethur said:

    Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Ukrainians have captured an area about the size of Berkshire. At the same time, they have lost an area the size of England and Wales combined and they seem to be falling back in the south.

    Yes, highly embarrassing for Putin. Makes him look stupid. But it comes with significant risks for Ukraine and it's not wholly clear yet what they expect to get from it, never mind will get.

    It may put an end to the idea of a stalemated war, Korea Mark 2. But given Russia's size and resources that may not be to Ukraine's advantage.
    And of course Russia does still have its nukes, and the more that Ukraine pushes into Russia (using US, UK, German, etc. weaponry), the more justification it can claim for using them. If it were Mexico pushing into the US with weapons supplied by the Chinese and Russians, how long would it be before they broke out the nukes?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126

    The Russians may be being denuded, its not clear that Ukraine are.

    Ukraine may have limited supplies of people, but they are getting supplies of munitions, tanks etc from around the globe.

    While Russia acts as if it has a limitless supply of people but actually has an acute demographic crunch of its own and is sending its people into a meat grinder.

    In long wars its logistics that wins wars, and Ukraine has the superior logistics.
    Ukraine still isn't receiving enough artillery ammunition. Most casualties in this war have been from artillery.

    This is why Ukraine are still being forced to retreat in Donetsk.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,222

    If it were Mexico pushing into the US with weapons supplied by the Chinese and Russians, how long would it be before they broke out the nukes?

    10 minutes and I am not joking.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,049
    darkage said:

    Ideally the entire 'lawfare' thing needs to be dialled down/de-escalated somehow.
    That would be good.

    They could maybe start by ditching convicted criminals from the political tickets?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited August 2024
    ydoethur said:

    If he is immune from prosecution what is to stop him holding Harris under house arrest and denying any application she is granted for habeus corpus?

    I don't think you really understand the significance of the idea of keeping elected leaders within the law, any more than the Supreme Court do.
    As the police only implement the sentences of the court or arrest those who breach existing state or Federal criminal law not do what the President decides on a whim
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 981
    HYUFD said:

    Still more of a swing state than Minnesota, albeit Walz
    was born in Nebraska where Biden won 1 EC vote in 2020
    No it isn't more of a swing state than MN.

    You can't look at the states winner history. You have to look at the margin, and based on that MN is more of a swing state
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,049
    HYUFD said:

    As the police only implement the sentences of the court or arrest those who breach existing state or Federal criminal law not do what the President decides on a whim
    Second sentence confirmed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    edited August 2024
    Dura_Ace said:

    Overcharge/Overdischarge protection is a function of the BMS not the battery. I don't think there is much that can be done to the battery, in isolation, to inhibit dendrite formation eventually leading to entertaining fires and explosions.
    The LFP chemistry is inherently far less prone to dendrite formation, which is one of the reasons for its much higher cycle lifetime than other Li-ion chemistries.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    darkage said:

    Ideally the entire 'lawfare' thing needs to be dialled down/de-escalated somehow.
    Which is really difficult when prosecutors are directly elected in many places in the US, and the likes of George Soros realised that they can get a lot more of their agenda from funding prosecutors, mayors, and police chiefs, than from funding expensive Senators and Presidents.

    https://thepostmillennial.com/revealed-george-soros-uses-army-of-radicalized-government-lawyers-to-tear-apart-the-justice-system
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820


    Economic reality matters less than economic perceptions.

    The determinant isn't how well the national economy is doing but how well individual voter's think they are doing compared to how well they think they deserve to be doing.
    And how scary the alternative can be shown to be.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,904
    Sandpit said:

    He’s a criminology student, or a criminality student?
    As a criminology student he can persuade himself that it is all someone else’s fault.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    Nigelb said:

    The LFP chemistry is inherently far less prone to dendrite formation, which is one of the reasons for its much higher cycle lifetime than other Li-ion chemistries.
    There has also been a considerable amount of work on improving manufacturing and detailed materials composition and finish. Which has had a massive effect on the reliability/safety of higher grade Li-ion batteries. Including reducing dendrite formation, but not exclusive to that issue.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    There has also been a considerable amount of work on improving manufacturing and detailed materials composition and finish. Which has had a massive effect on the reliability/safety of higher grade Li-ion batteries. Including reducing dendrite formation, but not exclusive to that issue.
    Is the dendrite formation what makes old batteries bloat and fail?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,508

    A Mac should be fine, interface-wise. It's not too hard to move from a desktop Mac to Windows and vice versa.

    The problem is many tablet apps are rather simplified, and the way desktop GUIs work can be rather different. For one thing, the presence of both network and local storage can be much more pronounced on desktop than it is on tablets. Not realising you've saved a file onto the local device, and not onto the network, as an example.
    I've had to use Windows for a client project recently - the first time I've ever touched it.

    Not difficult, but rather mind-boggling - you have to do what to install apps? Why are there four different control panel systems, each with a completely different look and feel but no clear delineation of responsibilities? If the registry is so damn important, then why isn't there a documented schema? And on and on and on...

    So, yeah, it's deeply frustrating, but not actually difficult if you've used MacOS/GNOME/KDE/etc

    But if they can make wilfully-obscure mobile apps like Snapchat work, then surely any sort of trad gui ought to be fairly trivial?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    200,000 bitching to whoever will listen that they have been evicted from their Russian homes by Ukrainians. There comes a point when even the state apparatus can't close that down and it bursts into the public consciousness.
    My first assumption was that they’d just confiscate their phones and ship them to camps in Siberia, but you can’t do that with 200,000 people in one go. 4,000 busses required for a start, which would have been doing other things.

    So many Russians are now getting their news from Telegram rather than what’s on the TV.
  • ydoethur said:

    Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Ukrainians have captured an area about the size of Berkshire. At the same time, they have lost an area the size of England and Wales combined and they seem to be falling back in the south.

    Yes, highly embarrassing for Putin. Makes him look stupid. But it comes with significant risks for Ukraine and it's not wholly clear yet what they expect to get from it, never mind will get.

    It may put an end to the idea of a stalemated war, Korea Mark 2. But given Russia's size and resources that may not be to Ukraine's advantage.
    What Russian resources?

    They can't even manufacture bearings.

    They've gone through the Soviet back catalogue of weaponry, Iran's weaponry has been taken and spent, now they're using North Korean weaponry while they're sending their people to the front on motorbikes and unarmored buggies, glorified golf carts.

    Its twenty years late, but the Axis of Evil is being denuded all at once.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    ydoethur said:

    Second sentence confirmed.
    Even the Secret Service are only there to protect the President not arrest others except those directly threatening the President's life. The armed forces in the US swear to uphold the constitution as well as follow the orders of the President
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    Dura_Ace said:

    10 minutes and I am not joking.
    Seems unlikely, given they could utterly destroy any such force with conventional weapons.
  • Sandpit said:

    They had a Tu-22M3 bomber plane crash on takeoff last night as well. The Soviets had a couple of hundred of these 40 years ago, but God knows how many remain serviceable today - obviously not that one.

    https://x.com/dekunle27/status/1824366515568746723

    I’ve got my hopes up a few times in this war, and my wife is in Ukraine at the moment, but I’m not sure I’ve been more confident than this week, that Ukraine will prevail and quickly.

    Russia now looks like they have nothing serviceable of note left in their military.
    It does seem that since the last Ukrainian counterattack didn't go to plan, they've really thought through what to do next and it seems that they've drawn their inspiration from Cassius Clay.

    It seems that Ukraine have been playing rope-a-dope with Russia for the past year, letting Russia send its forces and weaponry into the Donetsk meat grinder while Ukraine meticulously prepares her counterattack at an exposed and weak point and not where expected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480

    And of course Russia does still have its nukes, and the more that Ukraine pushes into Russia (using US, UK, German, etc. weaponry), the more justification it can claim for using them. If it were Mexico pushing into the US with weapons supplied by the Chinese and Russians, how long would it be before they broke out the nukes?
    The US had not already first invaded Mexico I assume in that scenario as Russia first invaded Ukraine
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,254

    The Cook PVI for Minnesota is D+1, and for Ohio it is R+6.
    Tbf Cook PVI for Pennsylvania is R+2 and if Pennsylvania is the tipping point state it's actually close to halfway between the two.

    OTOH current polling has Pennsylvania (and Michigan Wisconsin) not far off the national polling, but Trump seems to be much further ahead in Ohio than Harris is in Minnesota.

    If you look at the map, in a close election there are probably more plausible ways flipping Minnesota wins it for Trump than flipping Ohio wins it for Harris. Though both are surely unlikely - in most worlds where Trump wins Minnesota he wins without Minnesota, and in nearly all worlds where Harris wins Ohio she's already won comfortably without Ohio.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060
    Sandpit said:

    My first assumption was that they’d just confiscate their phones and ship them to camps in Siberia, but you can’t do that with 200,000 people in one go. 4,000 busses required for a start, which would have been doing other things.

    So many Russians are now getting their news from Telegram rather than what’s on the TV.
    Same as everywhere else then.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820

    There has also been a considerable amount of work on improving manufacturing and detailed materials composition and finish. Which has had a massive effect on the reliability/safety of higher grade Li-ion batteries. Including reducing dendrite formation, but not exclusive to that issue.
    There's constant incremental improvement, and every so often a big change in either design or chemistry.
    Similarly with the BMS;
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2024/08/419_380650.html
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394

    Fpt

    Otoh I bet Musk is too vain to rt this.

    https://x.com/28delayslater/status/1824100028979597792?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    I don't think people will say that is AI

    I think lots of them will say it's shit though
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798
    ydoethur said:

    Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Ukrainians have captured an area about the size of Berkshire. At the same time, they have lost an area the size of England and Wales combined and they seem to be falling back in the south.

    Yes, highly embarrassing for Putin. Makes him look stupid. But it comes with significant risks for Ukraine and it's not wholly clear yet what they expect to get from it, never mind will get.

    It may put an end to the idea of a stalemated war, Korea Mark 2. But given Russia's size and resources that may not be to Ukraine's advantage.
    Ukraine is doing what it can do, not what it wants to do, with its invasion of Kursk. If they hoped to draw Russian troops from Donbas that aim has failed so far. Russia is prioritising its continuing advance in Ukraine over preventing the loss of its own territory in Kursk.

    The operation has been a morale booster for Ukraine. This is valuable but as you point out there's a potentially large cost.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited August 2024
    HYUFD said:

    Kensington is no longer a safe Tory seat but it is still certainly a swing seat not safe Labour. Indeed Kensington and Bayswater is now only the 76th Conservative target seat so the Tories could win it back from Labour even if Labour still won a clear majority nationally
    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    Ohio is also still a swing state just one that is particularly pro Trump relative to say Romney or McCain when they were GOP nominees and it voted for Obama
    I wonder if the Kensington Seat could be a place for a deal between the Greens and Lib Dems, both of which received just under 7% of the vote? There perhaps won't be a LD-Lab informal deal, looking at the numbers.

    There is strange local politics in Kensington, where they give an over-priority to motor vehicle ownership - 60%+ have no motor vehicle, and non motor vehicle users are placed at excessive risk in major streets through actions or inactions of the Borough Council.

    At some stage that will come out in the politics via some route.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,254
    Nigelb said:

    Seems unlikely, given they could utterly destroy any such force with conventional weapons.
    If you can imagine Mexico invading the US then surely your imagination can cope with Mexico winning with conventional weapons!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    Her principal qualification, being Trump's largest political donor.
    I know Trump isn't particularly popular with the military, but this amounts to taking a large and very public dump on them.

    Trump: When we gave her the Presidential Medal of Freedom… It’s the equivalent of the Congressional Medal of Honor— it’s actually much better because everyone who gets the Congressional Medal, they’re soldiers. They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they’re dead. She gets it and she’s a healthy beautiful woman
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1824244644714369470
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    kamski said:

    If you can imagine Mexico invading the US then surely your imagination can cope with Mexico winning with conventional weapons!
    Er.... no.
  • FF43 said:

    Ukraine is doing what it can do, not what it wants to do, with its invasion of Kursk. If they hoped to draw Russian troops from Donbas that aim has failed so far. Russia is prioritising its continuing advance in Ukraine over preventing the loss of its own territory in Kursk.

    The operation has been a morale booster for Ukraine. This is valuable but as you point out there's a potentially large cost.

    Its too early to say it has failed so far, there are already reports of troops going from Donbas to Kursk, but more importantly there's only a finite amount of troops in Donbas and the rate at which Russia is losing them means they need to be continually refreshed.

    Now Russia has a major headache, does it send new reinforcements to Kursk or to Donbas. If reinforcements go to Kursk instead of Donbas, then even if no troops leave Donbas, that's still weakening Russia in Donbas.

    Plus its "advance" in Donbas is minute and costly. Slowly pulling back while your enemy loses a lot of troops and munitions in a costly grind can be a good strategy.
  • Nigelb said:

    Her principal qualification, being Trump's largest political donor.
    I know Trump isn't particularly popular with the military, but this amounts to taking a large and very public dump on them.

    Trump: When we gave her the Presidential Medal of Freedom… It’s the equivalent of the Congressional Medal of Honor— it’s actually much better because everyone who gets the Congressional Medal, they’re soldiers. They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they’re dead. She gets it and she’s a healthy beautiful woman
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1824244644714369470

    He's completely bonkers.

    Trump 2016 would never have insulted the military like this.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,222
    Nigelb said:

    Seems unlikely, given they could utterly destroy any such force with conventional weapons.
    I took FE's Beispeile to imply that conventional measures had failed to repulse the invasion.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    The other fun bit of the Ukranians being in Russia, is the blue-on-blue attacks in response.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823944548403253453

    Russian helicopter takes out two armoured vehicles. Two *Russian* armoured vehicles.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,254
    Nigelb said:

    Her principal qualification, being Trump's largest political donor.
    I know Trump isn't particularly popular with the military, but this amounts to taking a large and very public dump on them.

    Trump: When we gave her the Presidential Medal of Freedom… It’s the equivalent of the Congressional Medal of Honor— it’s actually much better because everyone who gets the Congressional Medal, they’re soldiers. They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they’re dead. She gets it and she’s a healthy beautiful woman
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1824244644714369470

    This is what I don't get - why Trump dissing military heroes doesn't just immediately finish off his candidacy. I mean what the hell is going on? I get that I high proportion of those getting military medals won't be white and that might annoy Trump because he's a fucking racist, but still, how do his patriotic supporters explain this stuff away? He's got a fair bit of form on this, I guess he just doesn't love America.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Its too early to say it has failed so far, there are already reports of troops going from Donbas to Kursk, but more importantly there's only a finite amount of troops in Donbas and the rate at which Russia is losing them means they need to be continually refreshed.

    Now Russia has a major headache, does it send new reinforcements to Kursk or to Donbas. If reinforcements go to Kursk instead of Donbas, then even if no troops leave Donbas, that's still weakening Russia in Donbas.

    Plus its "advance" in Donbas is minute and costly. Slowly pulling back while your enemy loses a lot of troops and munitions in a costly grind can be a good strategy.

    Its too early to say it has failed so far, there are already reports of troops going from Donbas to Kursk, but more importantly there's only a finite amount of troops in Donbas and the rate at which Russia is losing them means they need to be continually refreshed.

    Now Russia has a major headache, does it send new reinforcements to Kursk or to Donbas. If reinforcements go to Kursk instead of Donbas, then even if no troops leave Donbas, that's still weakening Russia in Donbas.

    Plus its "advance" in Donbas is minute and costly. Slowly pulling back while your enemy loses a lot of troops and munitions in a costly grind can be a good strategy.
    Ukraine has ordered the evacuation of Pokrovsk, a city in the Donetsk Oblast, as Russian forces approach the region.

    Russia is also claiming its forces have taken control of Serhiivka, a village in the region
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    From the economic policy press conference, a deep dive into supply chains.
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1824194532390617154

    If there really were a liberal press in the US, every headline this morning would have been: This Man is a Moron.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    edited August 2024
    a

    It does seem that since the last Ukrainian counterattack didn't go to plan, they've really thought through what to do next and it seems that they've drawn their inspiration from Cassius Clay.

    It seems that Ukraine have been playing rope-a-dope with Russia for the past year, letting Russia send its forces and weaponry into the Donetsk meat grinder while Ukraine meticulously prepares her counterattack at an exposed and weak point and not where expected.
    The other thing is that the poor Russian logistics means that they can't just shift the forces in Donetsk elsewhere, easily. Or even shift the supplies to those forces to supply those around Kursk, probably.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,732

    What Russian resources?

    They can't even manufacture bearings.

    They've gone through the Soviet back catalogue of weaponry, Iran's weaponry has been taken and spent, now they're using North Korean weaponry while they're sending their people to the front on motorbikes and unarmored buggies, glorified golf carts.

    Its twenty years late, but the Axis of Evil is being denuded all at once.
    Though the Russians seem to have developed reasonable micro-drone capabilities, which are the innovation of this war. The Donbas is basically a fairly attritional artillery, trench and artillery war that would be recognised by veterans of the Siege of Petersburg.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited August 2024
    Pulpstar said:

    Same as everywhere else then.
    Sadly, a large number of Russians still get their news from what’s on TV at 9pm.

    Mrs Sandpit has had some awful conversations with older relatives in Russia, who have a very different view of what’s happening in Ukraine gleaned from the TV news.

    Oh, they’re just trying to get the Nazis out of the Donbas…

    Umm, they bombed our house 100km West of Kiev, and now we’re out $5,000 for new windows.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    kamski said:

    This is what I don't get - why Trump dissing military heroes doesn't just immediately finish off his candidacy. I mean what the hell is going on? I get that I high proportion of those getting military medals won't be white and that might annoy Trump because he's a fucking racist, but still, how do his patriotic supporters explain this stuff away? He's got a fair bit of form on this, I guess he just doesn't love America.
    I think it comes down to the fact that for MAGA Republicans owning the libs is more important than anything else. Therefore Trump gets away with running the country and everything else down so long as he looks like he’s owning the libs. The GOP will be utterly screwed if the MAGA spell breaks before the election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    Dura_Ace said:

    I took FE's Beispeile to imply that conventional measures had failed to repulse the invasion.
    Blimey.
    In which case, a few tactical nukes probably wouldn't either.
    So goodbye Mexico City ?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,216
    edited August 2024

    Ukraine has ordered the evacuation of Pokrovsk, a city in the Donetsk Oblast, as Russian forces approach the region.

    Russia is also claiming its forces have taken control of Serhiivka, a village in the region
    At what cost?

    As I said, slowly pulling back as your enemy loses a lot of troops and munitions can be a good strategy. A controlled pullback is better than an uncontrolled one.

    That's been one area where Ukraine has consistently outsmarted Russia in this war. Russian leaders operate hubristically on a "don't give an inch" basis until they collapse. Ukraine have been willing to pull back at times and push forward at others depending upon what works best for them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,732
    Nigelb said:

    From the economic policy press conference, a deep dive into supply chains.
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1824194532390617154

    If there really were a liberal press in the US, every headline this morning would have been: This Man is a Moron.

    As one sage pointed out the other day, it's like a student trying to hit word count in an essay that he has done no preparation for.
  • a

    The other thing is that the poor Russian logistics means that they can't just shift the forces in Donetsk elsewhere, easily. Or even shift the supplies to those forces to supply those around Kursk, probably.
    Indeed.

    The weakening of the forces in Donbas won't happen overnight as those who are there will largely remain there, the bigger weakness is what happens next?

    If new supplies need to go to Kursk, then the troops in Donbas are going to find themselves weak and isolated.

    If no supplies go to Kursk, then Russia continues to lose territory to a superior force.

    Major headache for Putin and his Generals.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,254
    Nigelb said:

    Er.... no.
    So let me get this straight - you're willing to go along with Mexico hypothetically invading the USA, but you draw the line at them having any success as being just too unrealistic?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    kamski said:

    This is what I don't get - why Trump dissing military heroes doesn't just immediately finish off his candidacy. I mean what the hell is going on? I get that I high proportion of those getting military medals won't be white and that might annoy Trump because he's a fucking racist, but still, how do his patriotic supporters explain this stuff away? He's got a fair bit of form on this, I guess he just doesn't love America.
    I think the MAGA base is pretty well at the point that he could stage a public execution at Mar a Lago, and they'd find a way to rationalise it.
    And the NYT would report it as a campaign pivot.

    Strange times.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    Sandpit said:

    That’s an interesting theory.

    The S400 air defences around the bridge are really rare and expensive to use. Sending large drones or small rockets to the area not only gives the locations away, but also consumes the expensive rockets on cheap targets. They’re designed to be used on enemy aircraft or ICBMs. The really amusing thing is that you can take them out with tiny drones they can’t see on radar!

    I don’t see the Ukranians actually having a way of doing any more than minor damage to the bridge from the air, it’s well-built and you can’t deliver tonnes of explosives from above to a single point. The successful attack is going to be either a lorry on the bridge, a boat underneath it, or humans laying explosives.

    The security is ridiculously tight after the last truck bomb, and they have border-style lorry scanners on the approaches, so the only way to get a truck bomb on the bridge is going to be some sort of an ambush involving dozens of special forces. Attacking from underneath could be possible with an ambush of drone boats, taking out the defences then following the gaps created to get a drone barge filled with explosives under a pillar. Getting humans to place explosives needs a lot less of the explosives, they can for example use shaped charges aimed at weak points in the same way you’d demolish a building, but the difficulty is getting them close by without detection, possibly some mad SBS/James Bond-style frogman operation from a submarine?
    On the Air Defence systems, afaics Russia has far deeper stocks of those relative to the number destroyed than, for example, tanks.

    Perun was on this last Sunday:
    https://youtu.be/VlljA8zAupY?t=1737

    So whilst they keep chipping away, any clearance of air defence from around the Kerch Bridge would perhaps be temporary.

    In terms of munitions they have glide bombs including French ones, but if they have them the heavy ones have the shorter range, which is not ideal !


  • kamski said:

    So let me get this straight - you're willing to go along with Mexico hypothetically invading the USA, but you draw the line at them having any success as being just too unrealistic?
    I assume in this analogy it is a case of USA invaded Mexico first, and now Mexico is counterattacking not invading unprovoked?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    kamski said:

    So let me get this straight - you're willing to go along with Mexico hypothetically invading the USA, but you draw the line at them having any success as being just too unrealistic?
    According to D Dump, they already are invading...
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,254
    Foxy said:

    As one sage pointed out the other day, it's like a student trying to hit word count in an essay that he has done no preparation for.
    Do stable geniuses need a lot of preparation?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,203
    Sandpit said:

    They had a Tu-22M3 bomber plane crash on takeoff last night as well. The Soviets had a couple of hundred of these 40 years ago, but God knows how many remain serviceable today - obviously not that one.

    https://x.com/dekunle27/status/1824366515568746723

    I’ve got my hopes up a few times in this war, and my wife is in Ukraine at the moment, but I’m not sure I’ve been more confident than this week, that Ukraine will prevail and quickly.

    Russia now looks like they have nothing serviceable of note left in their military.
    The Russians are also utterly trashing their economy in the process of pursuing this war. One point of note is that Kursk is an economically important part of Russia. The huge disruption there will be adding to the economic pressures.

    The Russian dead and injured will shortly exceed 600,000. The number of people fleeing Russia to avoid the conflict - either economically or militarily - exceeds 3 million. The brightest have left. This brain drain will continue to have an impact for decades to come.

    The only comfort the Russians can take is that the Ukrainian econmy is in a grim place too. But Ukraine has friends with deep pockets. Russia has "friends" who will price gouge them on the vital supplies they require or sell.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    I find it difficult to argue with this thread.
    The decision on the Edinburgh computing centre just seems to have been a bad one, and they're unwilling to admit outright that it was wrong.

    Yesterday, the @FT ran a piece about government assurances around compute. We’re confused by the government creating an AI Opportunities taskforce days before canning investment, and now backtracking.

    We’ve spoken to multiple insiders to figure out what’s going on. It's bad. 🧵

    https://x.com/chalmermagne/status/1824387972952682514
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,254

    I assume in this analogy it is a case of USA invaded Mexico first, and now Mexico is counterattacking not invading unprovoked?
    What part of "fuck off" don't you get?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,203

    Ukraine has ordered the evacuation of Pokrovsk, a city in the Donetsk Oblast, as Russian forces approach the region.

    Russia is also claiming its forces have taken control of Serhiivka, a village in the region
    Those recent captured settlement totals: Russians 2, Ukrainians 78....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011
    Nigelb said:

    I find it difficult to argue with this thread.
    The decision on the Edinburgh computing centre just seems to have been a bad one, and they're unwilling to admit outright that it was wrong.

    Yesterday, the @FT ran a piece about government assurances around compute. We’re confused by the government creating an AI Opportunities taskforce days before canning investment, and now backtracking.

    We’ve spoken to multiple insiders to figure out what’s going on. It's bad. 🧵

    https://x.com/chalmermagne/status/1824387972952682514

    F-ing bonkers decision.

    As was the social care decision.

    Can't say I have been impressed at all by Reeve's start. Been v poor so far.
  • He's completely bonkers.

    Trump 2016 would never have insulted the military like this.
    Though his insults of John McCain, starting in 2015 (He's not a war hero, he's a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren't captured, okay? I hate to tell you.) were certainly insulting-the-military-adjacent.

    Trump has always been a nasty piece of work. It can get you ahead, which is why he is where he is. But it's a bit like fast bowling, it has to be deadly fast and deadly on-target to be effective. And now he is Old, with a capital O, he has lost a critical bit of pace and accuracy.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328
    ydoethur said:

    If he is immune from prosecution what is to stop him holding Harris under house arrest and denying any application she is granted for habeus corpus?

    I don't think you really understand the significance of the idea of keeping elected leaders within the law, any more than the Supreme Court do.
    Habeas corpus
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,482
    Lol (except, I wanted to do Newcastle away by train):

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/train-strikes-lner-aslef-weekend-disruption-b2597322.html

    Fresh train strikes have been announced, breaking a peace agreement between the train drivers’ union, Aslef, and the rail industry that lasted less than 48 hours.

    Members working for LNER – the government-owned train operator on the East Coast main line – will walk out at weekends from 31 August to 10 November.

    The union says the 22 days of planned strikes are in response to “bullying by management and persistent breaking of agreements by the company”.

    It is unrelated to the pay dispute that saw three years of strikes by train drivers across England.

    Aslef general secretary Mick Whelan said: “The continued failure of the company to resolve long-standing industrial relations issues has forced us into this position. We would much rather not be here.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    Nigelb said:

    I find it difficult to argue with this thread.
    The decision on the Edinburgh computing centre just seems to have been a bad one, and they're unwilling to admit outright that it was wrong.

    Yesterday, the @FT ran a piece about government assurances around compute. We’re confused by the government creating an AI Opportunities taskforce days before canning investment, and now backtracking.

    We’ve spoken to multiple insiders to figure out what’s going on. It's bad. 🧵

    https://x.com/chalmermagne/status/1824387972952682514

    It's probably a version of the rather childish NewBossCancelsAllOldBossesProjects - you see this many times in the private and public sector.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited August 2024

    The Russians are also utterly trashing their economy in the process of pursuing this war. One point of note is that Kursk is an economically important part of Russia. The huge disruption there will be adding to the economic pressures.

    The Russian dead and injured will shortly exceed 600,000. The number of people fleeing Russia to avoid the conflict - either economically or militarily - exceeds 3 million. The brightest have left. This brain drain will continue to have an impact for decades to come.

    The only comfort the Russians can take is that the Ukrainian econmy is in a grim place too. But Ukraine has friends with deep pockets. Russia has "friends" who will price gouge them on the vital supplies they require or sell.
    Oh, the brain drain from Russia is totally bonkers, and goes mostly unreported.

    Dubai prime property prices have doubled in the past two years, as anyone able to get themselves and their money out of Russia has done so, to anywhere willing to accept them. Plenty of stories out here of Russians trying to buy houses with gold or bitcoin, as their country joins North Korea and Iran on the sanctions list.

    There’s billions of dollars of capital fight from the country.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,049

    He's completely bonkers.

    Trump 2016 would never have insulted the military like this.
    He did. Just not in public.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-americans-who-died-at-war-are-losers-and-suckers/615997/

    (OK, from 2018 but he also accepted a Purple Heart from a vet while on campaign saying he'd always wanted one but he got it 'much easier'. Bizarre thing to say, but I suppose not technically an insult.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060
    tlg86 said:

    Lol (except, I wanted to do Newcastle away by train):

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/train-strikes-lner-aslef-weekend-disruption-b2597322.html

    Fresh train strikes have been announced, breaking a peace agreement between the train drivers’ union, Aslef, and the rail industry that lasted less than 48 hours.

    Members working for LNER – the government-owned train operator on the East Coast main line – will walk out at weekends from 31 August to 10 November.

    The union says the 22 days of planned strikes are in response to “bullying by management and persistent breaking of agreements by the company”.

    It is unrelated to the pay dispute that saw three years of strikes by train drivers across England.

    Aslef general secretary Mick Whelan said: “The continued failure of the company to resolve long-standing industrial relations issues has forced us into this position. We would much rather not be here.

    Whelan's got Starmer on the rack and he's cracking the whip now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110

    I assume in this analogy it is a case of USA invaded Mexico first, and now Mexico is counterattacking not invading unprovoked?
    It’s not like there aren’t any precedents.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    ydoethur said:

    If he is immune from prosecution what is to stop him holding Harris under house arrest and denying any application she is granted for habeus corpus?

    I don't think you really understand the significance of the idea of keeping elected leaders within the law, any more than the Supreme Court do.
    It's not my rabbit hole, yet I am sure there are all kinds of obscure powers that can be used to imprison people with no comeback, or at least no comeback for months and years.

    Remember that the Supreme Court ruled that Presidential Immunity extended essentially to including assassination of opponents, because any holding-to-account would in one stage be a political process for Congress, not a legal process for the DOJ / Courts.

    For an example of the back door, consider the Project 2025 strategy to declare 10s of thousands of civil servants to be political positions so that the President can just sack them.

    It was proposed in 2020 under the title "Schedule F". This time they seem to be serious.

    https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2024/0507/trump-biden-schedule-f-civil-service
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798
    edited August 2024

    Its too early to say it has failed so far, there are already reports of troops going from Donbas to Kursk, but more importantly there's only a finite amount of troops in Donbas and the rate at which Russia is losing them means they need to be continually refreshed.

    Now Russia has a major headache, does it send new reinforcements to Kursk or to Donbas. If reinforcements go to Kursk instead of Donbas, then even if no troops leave Donbas, that's still weakening Russia in Donbas.

    Plus its "advance" in Donbas is minute and costly. Slowly pulling back while your enemy loses a lot of troops and munitions in a costly grind can be a good strategy.
    Sure. My point is a limited one. If the purpose of this invasion was to divert Russian resources to Kursk and away from Donbas, the upshot for now is Ukrainian resources have been diverted and the Russian ones haven't.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820

    It's probably a version of the rather childish NewBossCancelsAllOldBossesProjects - you see this many times in the private and public sector.
    No, there's good rationale for looking at every spending commitment, given our finances. But they got this one badly wrong.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060
    One thing the Kursk (& likely Belgorod in time too) offensive does is make the war existential for Russia in a way it previously was only for Ukraine.
    Unless either Kyiv or Moscow falls, facts on the ground will determine any post settlement ceasefire.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    "Vice President Kamala Harris is zeroing in on high food prices as her campaign previews an economic policy speech that she will give in North Carolina on Friday, promising to push for a federal ban on price gouging on groceries.

    Harris is putting particular emphasis on rising meat prices, which she says account for a large part of rising grocery bills.

    Year-over-year inflation has reached its lowest level in more than three years. But many in the United States are struggling with food prices, which remain 21% above where they were three years ago. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has been pointing to inflation as a key failing of the Biden administration and its energy policies."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/kamala-harris-ap-joe-biden-donald-trump-tyson-b2597043.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,203
    Pulpstar said:

    Whelan's got Starmer on the rack and he's cracking the whip now.
    Balls in the vice...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    Nigelb said:

    No, there's good rationale for looking at every spending commitment, given our finances. But they got this one badly wrong.
    Looking at spending commitments is one thing. Cancelling primary research tools, such as exoscale compute, is another.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    FF43 said:

    Sure. My point is a limited one. If the purpose of this invasion was to divert Russian resources to Kursk and away from Donbas, the upshot for now is Ukrainian resources have been diverted and the Russian ones haven't.
    Well the Ukranians have just gained more territory in a week, at minimal cost, than the Russians have gained this year at a cost of the lives of 1,000 men per day.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    Oh god have Mexico invaded the US? ... Brace.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    kinabalu said:

    Oh god have Mexico invaded the US? ... Brace.

    Worse. They've captured The Bomb.

    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,049

    Worse. They've captured The Bomb.

    image
    Moused you use up your picture quota on that?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    ydoethur said:

    If he is immune from prosecution what is to stop him holding Harris under house arrest and denying any application she is granted for habeus corpus?

    I don't think you really understand the significance of the idea of keeping elected leaders within the law, any more than the Supreme Court do.
    Well, denying habeas corpus would present severe difficulties.

    I wouldn't be impossible though. There is the possibility of the President formally suspending the writ - as has been done several times in US history (though only Lincoln did it without prior authorisation of Congress, and had Congress subsequently approve the decision).

    Article 1 s.9
    ..The Privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it...

    The illegal migrant "invasion" might provide such a pretext, and who knows how the current Supreme Court would rule on that.

    Arrest itself would present no difficulty at all. Either the FBI, or the Secret Service have the legal power of arrest without warrant.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Fox News poll 50/49 Trump/Harris
    https://x.com/frankluntz/status/1824135764675829891
  • glwglw Posts: 10,288

    F-ing bonkers decision.

    As was the social care decision.

    Can't say I have been impressed at all by Reeve's start. Been v poor so far.
    I've yet to hear Reeves interviewed where she didn't come across as basically clueless. Maybe she's just terrible at speaking in public, and brilliant in reality, but nothing I've heard as yet has dissuaded me from my opinion that she sounds unfit for the job. And this observation goes back years now, it's not something I'm jumping on the bandwagon about, I was making this point a long time ago.

    Maybe it will all become clear at the budget, but right now I'm expecting even more mad decisions from the government.

    Incidentally on the AI vs HPC distinction that is frankly nonsense. Unless you are going for some AI only parts most systems are both AI and HPC capable given that the same hardware is used if you are buying Nvidia, or AMD, which are the main players. And nobody is likely to sink a huge amount of public money into a bespoke AI accelerator based system, or some niche player. There are dozens of AI hardware vendors mostly doing terribly as nobody wants to be the farm on such kit.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    Nigelb said:

    According to D Dump, they already are invading...
    Millions every month. And it's the worst, the WORST, people who are coming. They're saying pretty soon all the jails and asylums in Mexico will be empty. Who could ever imagine such a thing.
  • FF43 said:

    Sure. My point is a limited one. If the purpose of this invasion was to divert Russian resources to Kursk and away from Donbas, the upshot for now is Ukrainian resources have been diverted and the Russian ones haven't.
    I couldn't disagree with you more.

    Ukraine isn't sending it elite forces forwards in Donbas, its letting Russia send its troops into the meat grinder and killing them off. So long as Ukraine maintains the ability to grind down what Russia sends at it, then its not diverting its own forces.

    And Russia has already sent reinforcements to Kursk (including reinforcements that have already been killed and captured), that's quite potentially already diverting away reinforcements away from Donbas.

    Opportunity cost is as real in war as it is in economics and Russia faces that opportunity cost struggle with what to do with reinforcements now. Reinforcements it needs in both places, because Ukraine is successfully grinding down its troops in Donbas, and successfully expanding operations in Kursk.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,288

    It's probably a version of the rather childish NewBossCancelsAllOldBossesProjects - you see this many times in the private and public sector.
    Exactly. We don't want that old HPC supercomputer using Nvidia GPUs, we want a new AI supercomputer built using the very same Nvidia GPUs.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    Oh.

    "Train drivers to strike every weekend for next three months despite bumper pay rise
    Members of the Aslef union are starting a fresh campaign at LNER"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/16/train-drivers-strike-pay-rise/
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    tlg86 said:

    Lol (except, I wanted to do Newcastle away by train):

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/train-strikes-lner-aslef-weekend-disruption-b2597322.html

    Fresh train strikes have been announced, breaking a peace agreement between the train drivers’ union, Aslef, and the rail industry that lasted less than 48 hours.

    Members working for LNER – the government-owned train operator on the East Coast main line – will walk out at weekends from 31 August to 10 November.

    The union says the 22 days of planned strikes are in response to “bullying by management and persistent breaking of agreements by the company”.

    It is unrelated to the pay dispute that saw three years of strikes by train drivers across England.

    Aslef general secretary Mick Whelan said: “The continued failure of the company to resolve long-standing industrial relations issues has forced us into this position. We would much rather not be here.

    I am sure the govt will happily roll over to whatever the union demands.

    That seems to be how they operate now :smiley:

    All of these strikes called just days after the govt rolled over to all of the ASLEF demands, well that's a happy coincidence.

    Expect more of this from Public Sector Unions going forward. The Govt has set out its stall as being walkovers.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    Pulpstar said:

    Whelan's got Starmer on the rack and he's cracking the whip now.
    Who can blame him. People go on about Mick Lynch being a canny operator. He's a boorish Corbynite who eventually folded. On the other hand Mick Whelan is a smart cookie. He knows he has the govt on the rack and he is exerting the pressure.

    The only question is when the government cave in, not if they cave in.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    Andy_JS said:

    Oh.

    "Train drivers to strike every weekend for next three months despite bumper pay rise
    Members of the Aslef union are starting a fresh campaign at LNER"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/16/train-drivers-strike-pay-rise/

    Who'd have thought it :smiley:
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    Stereodog said:

    Can you stop doing that? It's extremely impolite to someone making perfectly reasonable posts.
    Ooh, vigilante modding !!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,049
    Taz said:

    Who'd have thought it :smiley:
    If they'd just work to rule. Punctuality would go up.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 793
    Taz said:

    Ooh, vigilante modding !!!
    Sorry if that breaks some kind of etiquette but it does seem a bit unnecessary
This discussion has been closed.