Vance is looking like a hindrance – politicalbetting.com
Vance is looking like a hindrance – politicalbetting.com
Economist/YouGov Poll, August 11-13% of registered voters who say the following helps / hurts their ticket's chances to win the presidential electionWalz: 42% / 16%Vance: 24% / 29%https://t.co/ReIZqyA0vm pic.twitter.com/0k6ve9t7s0
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'Hindrance' is the politest of them.
Nothing has changed.
https://x.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1824162218092663079
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/08/15/kamala-harris-price-gouging-groceries/
Pence at least brought his evangelicals into the tent. I am really not sure what Vance was meant to bring but for Trump to pick someone with such a rich vein of misogyny going back for years seems to have doubled down on a weakness of his own. If I was to point to one single factor that was weighing this race Harris's way it would be the differential on women voters. Its the abortion thing, the misogyny, the pussy grabbing thing, the lack of loyalty to serial spouses, the patronising crap and the gratuitous rudeness handed out to Harris. Its a long list of reasons that is going to alienate a lot of women.
In fact, if it stays this close, it will probably be decided in the courts like 2000, in which case Harris is in deep trouble.
It's a tossup.
The Ukrainian army continues its retreat into Russia.
Darth Putin
I'm saying it because the momentum is there for Harris and will accelerate as Trump goes batshit crazy over not being in the lead and not being the anointed one. Yes, his base will vote for him as they are crazy / pathologically hate Democrats and Liberals / are screaming hypocrite evangelical "Christians" etc etc.
It isn't about them. Its about everyone else. Trump lost massively in 2020. Tell me where he is going to find the millions of votes needed to win this time. They didn't vote for crazy last time but as he utterly melts down and displays all of the demented old man behaviours that Biden was attacked for they will decide he should get their vote this time?
Yep, its largely Pennsylvania again. I actually feel sorry for residents there. They must get so sick of this. I am really glad its not a thing in this country.
He has the backstory of a modern Abraham Lincoln, of the supposed 'American dream' personified.
Unfortunately Vance is a bit odd and has picked up some extreme views along the way - unsurprisingly with his traumatic background.
So why weren't these oddities and extreme views picked up on during the selection process ?
My theory is that Don Jnr and Vance have some sort of bromance based upon family issues - Vance had a difficult upbringing and having Trump as your father might not have been easy.
But the economy may decide this in Trump's favour.
Still very early days in the campaign.
So you not only have to put up with most of the TV ads being for politicians, most of which are negative attack ads rather than any positive vision from the candidate, but if you live in a swing state you’ll often get several phone calls per day for the next three months!
The UK system of sending out a few leaflets and the occasional PPB works a lot better!
It's possible, but the alternative is equally possible. Trump gets a bit of message discipline, Harris does as terribly as usual in debates and interviews and people realise her liberal record is not what they want. That squeaks Trump over the line.
https://x.com/endwokeness/status/1824280027749290130
Make America Affordable Again.
So yes, criticising the Biden administration for the economy is an obvious lever for Trump to pull.
But he isn't pulling it and as all the recent reports have it, *refuses* to pull it as he demands "his right" to attack Harris for her crime of
not being Biden'They've messed up this economy, they don't care about you, here's my plan' could deliver for him. But he refuses to do that. Instead he wants to personally attack Harris, drool on about the previous economy (the past, not the present or the future) and then go full blown crazy by talking about death by shark.
Harris will have an economic plan even if Biden has been getting the blame. Trump doesn't have a plan and won't talk about a plan. Which again is why I believe Trump is done and will lose heavily. His own catastrophe in the making. And the worse the polls get the more insane he will get and the worse the polls get.
As much as anything, it was an expression of hubris, rather than electoral calculation.
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/platform
You may disagree with his plan, but he does have one.
And you've probably noticed that the US is already the world's largest fossil fuel producer.
The plan is effectively mass deportations, and huge consumer price increases through tariffs.
A plan for chaos.
Many PBers will have heard of the Lincoln-Douglas debates amid the Senatorial election of 1858 and that Douglas defeated Lincoln.
But Lincoln won more votes than Douglas - Douglas won because the winner was decided by the legislature.
And the margin of Lincoln's popular vote win, 6.6%, was similar to what Lincoln would defeat Douglas by in the 1860 Presidential election in Illinois, 3.5%.
What seems really odd though is that the popular vote in the 1858 senatorial election was higher than that in the 1860 presidential election:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln–Douglas_debates#Results
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1860_United_States_presidential_election_in_Illinois
I get that people hate Trump and I am not in any way a supporter but there is a lot of overconfidence / wishful thinking about the democrats.
And hilarious
Make america the dominant energy producer in the world, by far!
The by far! is perhaps the relevant bit.
Curiously the only other promise which gets an exclamation mark is:
and no tax on tips!
Completely making up figures as an example, imagine 50,000 jobs (net) have been created - of which 60,000 (net) have gone to migrants and there are 10,000 fewer non-migrants employed than before.
However while its possible, given who said it, I expect for that reason alone its total bullshit.
https://nypost.com/2024/08/14/us-news/trump-lays-out-plan-for-combating-inflation-during-intellectual-speech-in-north-carolina/
Points include reducing energy prices by raising domestic energy production, deporting illegal immigrants, and a drastic cut in government spending.
Whereas Harris says she’ll reduce inflation by price controls in supermarkets.
I would expect once elected this will disappear. As they point out food inflation is now 1.1% in the U.S. and supermarket margins are thin. She's not had much interrogation or analysis from the press currently. Partly due to Trump backfiring so badly.
Her policy positions will be interesting and when subjected to scrutiny, like here, may fall apart. Although to be fair there are some assumptions as to what her policy is going to be in the article as well.
Another beneficiary.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-cronyism-row-deepens-as-second-top-civil-service-job-questioned/ar-AA1oSagk?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=319b91006aac486aa81dd17f0ea5f5a9&ei=13
https://x.com/nz_trav/status/1824342393623286142
No suggestion yet that the bridge was actually damaged.
I'm not quite sure how reducing illegal immigrants, who presumably do a lot of manual jobs, will reduce inflation. I get the domestic energy production (presumably fracking in a big way) and spending cuts (yawn).
The last Trump administration saw big tax cuts for the wealthiest and Trump is obviously a devotee of trickle down despite the fact we all know it doesn't work and of course spending cuts will impact the poorest in American society who are the main users of public services.
In essence. it's a manifesto for the wealthy and very wealthy but that's his voting base so we shouldn't be surprised.
Over here, it's very different - households with an income of over £70,000 voted 40% Labour, 22% Conservative and 16% Liberal Democrat so the Conservatives do better among the poor.
On the broader point, I used to think it was very important top civil service jobs were impartial. I'm revising my mind a bit... if a minister wants person x who they rate to run an initiative... why shouldn't they have them? Maybe we need a new class of person like spads but with more seniority...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel#Political_views_and_activities
Whereas Musk is so erratic in his beliefs and donations he isn't someone to be relied upon.
Is there any evidence that picking Vance is bringing in any more 'Tech Bro' money than would have been donated in any case ?
I have a very close interest in this conflict because my family are in Finland. It seems like there are different strategies, which we don't know the full details of, and which may or may not work. There is a risk that Trump 'pulls the plug'. But it seems more likely that it would be a sub optimum 'deal' that freezes the conflict in some way along roughly the current lines. Alternatively, the democrat solution is likely to be just to roll on the conflict, but is most likely to result in essentially the same situation, albeit at greater human and financial cost, and with more disruption - it also brings with it the possibility of total victory for Ukraine, or the complete implosion of Ukraine. I understand why people prefer the latter, but I am just not convinced that Trump is necessarily a disaster.
Can't say he isn't studious....
That isn't really true. Last month the Tories did better with average earners on £20 to £50k than the poorest earning under £20k. Biden and the Democrats also won some of the wealthiest zip codes in the US in 2020 and Biden also tied Trump with voters earning over 200 000 dollars.
Both the Tories and Trump comfortably won voters over 65 and white non graduates however. So the divide is more an age than wealth one. In the UK it is actually now the LDs who do worst amongst the poorest voters and non graduate working class and best amongst the richest and
graduates.
A decade ago though pre Trump and Brexit both Cameron and Romney polled better with voters the richer they were and the more they earned and both won graduates too
And it's easy to identify their locations by attacking something close by, locate where the defence fires from and then hit those defences..
The person in question is going get a detailed education on exactly how a chunk of the government works, who makes things happen. And get in all the useful WhatsApp groups...
All of which sets you up perfectly to do contracts for the government, later. Worth orders of magnitude more than 67K in the long run.
Certainly not the best candidates.
Biden couldn’t have reversed what had happened without launching a new full-scale military incursion, which understandably given the difficulties involved he decided not to do.
In Government, it's slightly different - you have the continuity of the civil service and the discontinuity of Ministers - how many Home Secretaries have there been since 2015? Departments where the Minister (and other political appointments) frequently change are different to those where there is a degree of stability. Often, the big decisions aren't taken - why do we have a shortage of prison capacity and who are the Conservatives to complain about that given they were in Government for 14 years?
On the other hand, maybe he thinks West Midlands Serious Crime Squad is still rolling?
"Even the WaPo" is a bit old, as it's been dinging the Democrats for quite some time.
Secondly, what evidence do you or the WaPo columnist have that she's proposing price controls ?
(None, I'm guessing.)
Health & Human Services Secretary is the job RFK Jr wants.
Whether he can remain focused for the next 12 weeks remains up for debate: if he can keep the conversation on areas where he is strong (immigration and the economy), then he is very much in contention. If he goes off on grievance fueled rants, or if the conversation moves onto mental fitness or Project 2025 or abortion, then it's going to be much harder for him.
We are now one hour and 8 minutes in to Trump’s “press conference” on food prices and we have now reached the Hillary’s Emails section of his Greatest Hits.
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1824200819542999225
The disputes there would have been between the Southern Dems and the Constitutional Union supporters.
In the northern states the GOP had what was an incipient paramilitary force:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wide_Awakes
Though Harris will hope Walz has appeal in upper Midwest swing states Wisconsin and Michigan too
As much as it pisses you off that those earning a low living are now on a lower marginal rate than before, while those relying upon unearned incomes are taxed more than before.
Sometimes political forums miss just how little the general public follow the minutiae of policies .
Explaining to the general public why price controls aren’t a good idea . Good luck with that .
But only one party has voted as a block against aid for Ukraine - at the behest of their presidential candidate.
And Harris's statements have been unequivocal in support - and Walz was one if the earliest backers of Ukraine after the invasion.
What's amusing is anyone thinking that there isn't a massive difference between the two parties on this.
1964, 1972, and 1984 were massive losses, but 2020 doesn't really fall into that category.
It was a good pick both electorally, and from the POV of actually running an administration.
Against that is your obsession with the ability of a candidate to 'deliver' their state.
Looking at the income figures, the worst Conservative performance (interestingly) was among those with household earnings between £50k and £70k - possibly those most affected by the freezing of tax thresholds.
Oddly enough, among those earning over £70k, the 2019 vote split was Conservative 40%, Labour 31% and Liberal Democrat 20% whereas this time it was Labour 40%, Conservative 22% and Liberal Democrat 16% so again a 13.5% swing . In fact, the LDs did slightly better among those on lower incomes in 2024 than in 2019.
https://x.com/28delayslater/status/1824100028979597792?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
The S400 air defences around the bridge are really rare and expensive to use. Sending large drones or small rockets to the area not only gives the locations away, but also consumes the expensive rockets on cheap targets. They’re designed to be used on enemy aircraft or ICBMs. The really amusing thing is that you can take them out with tiny drones they can’t see on radar!
I don’t see the Ukranians actually having a way of doing any more than minor damage to the bridge from the air, it’s well-built and you can’t deliver tonnes of explosives from above to a single point. The successful attack is going to be either a lorry on the bridge, a boat underneath it, or humans laying explosives.
The security is ridiculously tight after the last truck bomb, and they have border-style lorry scanners on the approaches, so the only way to get a truck bomb on the bridge is going to be some sort of an ambush involving dozens of special forces. Attacking from underneath could be possible with an ambush of drone boats, taking out the defences then following the gaps created to get a drone barge filled with explosives under a pillar. Getting humans to place explosives needs a lot less of the explosives, they can for example use shaped charges aimed at weak points in the same way you’d demolish a building, but the difficulty is getting them close by without detection, possibly some mad SBS/James Bond-style frogman operation from a submarine?
If Ukraine wants to continue to fight, we should support them. If Ukraine wants to seek peace, we should support them. Its their fight and their choice and we should support them, and currently they want munitions, not white flags.
However Harris is doing better in swing states than Hillary did, leading now on average in Michigan and Wisconsin for example and tied in Georgia, even if still worse than Biden did in 2020. So yes it looks the closest election in the EC since 2000 though even in 2000 had Gore been ahead in Florida even the SC stopping the count wouldn't have stopped him winning
My question / thought was that few people think the tax cuts actually resulted in any actual Tory votes. But if the Tory voters are those earning less than £50,000 than they are the people most impacted by the tax cuts..
My gut here is that what finally does for Putin and his Ukrainian adventure will come out of Dagestan or Chechnya. The more those places are denuded of troops to support Russian in Ukraine (and the surrounding provinces), the more the locals will fancy having a go.
And when that happens, Russia will be in no position to respond, because they are stretched so thin. That will be the end of Putin.
Many oldies are wiling to accept that to have the prices that they remember from previous decades:
David Mort, 90, from Risca in Caerphilly said: "For old age pensioners it's getting worse."
"A cup of tea, 20p - that's plenty. £2.20 is not a fair price," he said. "If it were me I wouldn't go in there, it's as simple as that."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn7lyd3zrrro
What's your problem with putting up one tax to cut another? Especially when its targeted properly?
It is ironic that Chechnya was the making of Putin and that thanks to his misadventure it could be the ending of him too.
I don't know enough about the Chechen situation to understand why they've not tried to have a go yet, it does seem odd that its all so quiet there.
It is worth remembering, of course, that it is far from impossible that Ms Harris holds onto WI, PA and MI, while losing the popular vote. That - assuming she held onto her single Nebraska elector - would give her a 270-268 edge.
I don't know about you guys, but I don't think we'd see a gracious concession speech from him under that scenaro.
Plenty here seem to think that Trump has still got this, but I can´t help feeling that this is the residual shock from the EC victory of 2016. The momentum is with the Dems, and although it is not yet Labour day, I think the big mo is setting up what could be a landslide for Harris.
Then there is Putin´s interventions for his clearly favoured candidate of Trump. Without being complacent, even the attempted assassination has not led to a lasting lead for Trump. People are tired of the weird, nasty schtick and team Harris, relatable and normal is a perfect antidote to rage of the right. Putin´s subversion is both more obvious but also weaker than before.
We will see, but objectively Trump is indeed clearly on the back foot at this stage of the race and it is hard to see how he gets in back.
Perhaps he really has f*cked the couch.
Stepping back from the details of the data, big picture there is a good reason why this is true. The US fertility rate is below the level required to maintain the current population level (1.6 vs 2.1). That means that any population increase is driven by net migration. In the long run then you'd expect the rise in jobs held by immigrants to be bigger than the rise in jobs overall, as the number of native born people goes down. Of course when Trump says it, it sounds as though only immigrants are getting jobs, and perhaps this is what he thinks it means too, whereas what it actually means is simply that more native born people are retiring than are entering the labour force. It all feeds into the anxiety that some people feel around immigration and demographic change, but like a lot of things it just comes down to fertility and ageing dynamics in society.
You are paying for the shop, the bills, the taxes, the staff.
At around the time of The Great Cereal Scandal*, some people worked out the cost of a business that just offered a seat, wifi and nothing else....
*https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/sep/27/shoreditch-cereal-cafe-targeted-by-anti-gentrification-protesters
https://x.com/robertkennedyjr/status/1824053188799889650
TL:DR he’s not a fan of the modern Democratic Party, prefers the old party of his father and uncle who stood up for the little people rather than the donor class and globalist interests.
Special Longterm Access Volunteer Education & Service contracts.....
May I have a statue, please?
He's a much better fit for the modern Republicans.
(*) And I mean that genuinely.
And why she will win in November.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/
Also interesting detail on the impact of "postal" votes due to Covid. How much is this a permanent change or will unwind?
"Nearly half of 2020 voters (46%) said they had voted by mail or absentee, and among that group, about four-in-ten said it was their first time casting a ballot this way. Hispanic and White voters were more likely than Black voters to have cast absentee or mail ballots, while Black voters were more likely than White or Hispanic voters to have voted early in person. Urban and suburban voters were also more likely than rural voters to have voted absentee or by mail ballot."
This actually happpened 200 years ago, in 1824, when no candidate got a majority of the electoral college.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1824_United_States_presidential_election