I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Higher taxes and lower growth is where it's heading. Had lunch with a financial advisor this week who reckons half their clients are going to up sticks if Labour do a mad one and put CGT up to 45%.
My guess is that Labour are not going to be that stupid, particularly as HMRC have published a report documenting the billions it will cost them, and Labour have promised to listen to the OBR...
But something tells me no, they're really going to be stupid and go for the jugular of British business. It's like the old story of the frog and the scorpion, the scorpion can't help it, it's in its nature.
CGT of 45%?
Has anyone proposed that other than the Owen Jones brigade?
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Do we expect the next set of local elections to be a GE hangover, and therefore bad for the tories, or the first green shoots of a recovery? Overall the tories kept hold of a surprising number of council seats over their years in national governent - many more than Labour did 1997-2010 for comparison.
I seriously believe the Tories can undo this pathetic Woke Labour government in one term. Starmer only got 33.7% on a shit turnout, this can be overturned in moments, and Starmer is a clueless nasal-voiced Woke twat like all his Cabinet, he won't fix anything, he will make most things worse
But the Tories need a really good leader, able to harness Reform voters yet stay centre right, and unfortunately I cannot see who that is - yet
In the run-up to the election someone described Starmer as a lucky general and that luck appears to be holding. Country hasn't been this united for a while thanks to last weekend's cosplay Kristallnacht.
If there has been any appetite for the likes of JRM to engineer a union with Reform that's a no-go for the foreseeable future.
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Higher taxes and lower growth is where it's heading. Had lunch with a financial advisor this week who reckons half their clients are going to up sticks if Labour do a mad one and put CGT up to 45%.
My guess is that Labour are not going to be that stupid, particularly as HMRC have published a report documenting the billions it will cost them, and Labour have promised to listen to the OBR...
But something tells me no, they're really going to be stupid and go for the jugular of British business. It's like the old story of the frog and the scorpion, the scorpion can't help it, it's in its nature.
The entire developed world has the same problems though. Either tell the populace to pay more tax (and that means people who still have some money left to give) or implement compulsory euthanasia at 70.
He did really well but it's the story of our Games
Just couldn't close out the gold 😡
The GB girl was cheated out of Bronze, by the judges, and by her opponent's gamesmanship.
We have been cheated out of a hatful of medals throughout the fortnight.
The British medal count at the end of this will look remarkably similar to the three previous Games, it's just that fewer of them are golds. That's mainly down to a combination of a handful of narrow defeats against very strong opponents, and declines in several areas (cycling, sailing, boxing, swimming) not being compensated for by improvements in others (notably rowing.) It is what it is.
Thankfully though, nobody really cares. That’s both the strength and the weakness of the Olympics.
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Higher taxes and lower growth is where it's heading. Had lunch with a financial advisor this week who reckons half their clients are going to up sticks if Labour do a mad one and put CGT up to 45%.
My guess is that Labour are not going to be that stupid, particularly as HMRC have published a report documenting the billions it will cost them, and Labour have promised to listen to the OBR...
But something tells me no, they're really going to be stupid and go for the jugular of British business. It's like the old story of the frog and the scorpion, the scorpion can't help it, it's in its nature.
CGT of 45%?
Has anyone proposed that other than the Owen Jones brigade?
Was in the Lib dem manifesto, so certainly not limited to the far left.
Normalising CGT with income tax, i.e. 40% on anything above 50k, 45% above 125k (note - about half of all disposals are above 5m, so, effectively, this is taxing most CGT disposals at 45%), reducing entrepreneur's allowance, etc, are all widely predicted.
Every HNWI I know is looking at leaving the UK, and this was confirmed by a financial advisor I spoke to earlier this week who's talking about an exodus of clients. All that money, gone. All that tax revenue, gone. All that investment, gone. It closes the UK for business. We'd literally become the least business friendly country in Europe overnight. Never mind the loss in CGT revenue from people moving to different jurisdictions, the cumulative loss in income tax and corporation tax receipts over the next few years would be devastating.
As I say, it would be an act of enormous economic self harm. But it's one Rachel Reeves has repeatedly refused to rule out (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9v880z470lo ), so we have to assume, for now, that it's definitely on.
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Do we expect the next set of local elections to be a GE hangover, and therefore bad for the tories, or the first green shoots of a recovery? Overall the tories kept hold of a surprising number of council seats over their years in national governent - many more than Labour did 1997-2010 for comparison.
I seriously believe the Tories can undo this pathetic Woke Labour government in one term. Starmer only got 33.7% on a shit turnout, this can be overturned in moments, and Starmer is a clueless nasal-voiced Woke twat like all his Cabinet, he won't fix anything, he will make most things worse
But the Tories need a really good leader, able to harness Reform voters yet stay centre right, and unfortunately I cannot see who that is - yet
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Higher taxes and lower growth is where it's heading. Had lunch with a financial advisor this week who reckons half their clients are going to up sticks if Labour do a mad one and put CGT up to 45%.
My guess is that Labour are not going to be that stupid, particularly as HMRC have published a report documenting the billions it will cost them, and Labour have promised to listen to the OBR...
But something tells me no, they're really going to be stupid and go for the jugular of British business. It's like the old story of the frog and the scorpion, the scorpion can't help it, it's in its nature.
CGT of 45%?
Has anyone proposed that other than the Owen Jones brigade?
If you align CGT rates with income tax rates, and if gains are treated as the top slice then, yes, that's what you get...
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Do we expect the next set of local elections to be a GE hangover, and therefore bad for the tories, or the first green shoots of a recovery? Overall the tories kept hold of a surprising number of council seats over their years in national governent - many more than Labour did 1997-2010 for comparison.
The county council elections next year will likely see a few Tory losses as the Tories were clearly ahead on NEV in 2021 when the wards were last up.
Labour had a clear NEV lead in 2022 though and Labour had a big NEV lead over the Tories in 2023 and 2024 so the local elections of 2026, 2027 and 2028 will likely see Tory gains, especially if Labour is unpopular midterm
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Do we expect the next set of local elections to be a GE hangover, and therefore bad for the tories, or the first green shoots of a recovery? Overall the tories kept hold of a surprising number of council seats over their years in national governent - many more than Labour did 1997-2010 for comparison.
I seriously believe the Tories can undo this pathetic Woke Labour government in one term. Starmer only got 33.7% on a shit turnout, this can be overturned in moments, and Starmer is a clueless nasal-voiced Woke twat like all his Cabinet, he won't fix anything, he will make most things worse
But the Tories need a really good leader, able to harness Reform voters yet stay centre right, and unfortunately I cannot see who that is - yet
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Higher taxes and lower growth is where it's heading. Had lunch with a financial advisor this week who reckons half their clients are going to up sticks if Labour do a mad one and put CGT up to 45%.
My guess is that Labour are not going to be that stupid, particularly as HMRC have published a report documenting the billions it will cost them, and Labour have promised to listen to the OBR...
But something tells me no, they're really going to be stupid and go for the jugular of British business. It's like the old story of the frog and the scorpion, the scorpion can't help it, it's in its nature.
CGT of 45%?
Has anyone proposed that other than the Owen Jones brigade?
Was in the Lib dem manifesto, so certainly not limited to the far left.
Normalising CGT with income tax, i.e. 40% on anything above 50k, 45% above 125k (note - about half of all disposals are above 5m, so, effectively, this is taxing most CGT disposals at 45%), reducing entrepreneur's allowance, etc, are all widely predicted.
Every HNWI I know is looking at leaving the UK, and this was confirmed by a financial advisor I spoke to earlier this week who's talking about an exodus of clients. All that money, gone. All that tax revenue, gone. All that investment, gone. It closes the UK for business. We'd literally become the least business friendly country in Europe overnight. Never mind the loss in CGT revenue from people moving to different jurisdictions, the cumulative loss in income tax and corporation tax receipts over the next few years would be devastating.
As I say, it would be an act of enormous economic self harm. But it's one Rachel Reeves has repeatedly refused to rule out (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9v880z470lo ), so we have to assume, for now, that it's definitely on.
Ah. I had forgotten about the 45% tax rate for £125k+
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Do we expect the next set of local elections to be a GE hangover, and therefore bad for the tories, or the first green shoots of a recovery? Overall the tories kept hold of a surprising number of council seats over their years in national governent - many more than Labour did 1997-2010 for comparison.
I seriously believe the Tories can undo this pathetic Woke Labour government in one term. Starmer only got 33.7% on a shit turnout, this can be overturned in moments, and Starmer is a clueless nasal-voiced Woke twat like all his Cabinet, he won't fix anything, he will make most things worse
But the Tories need a really good leader, able to harness Reform voters yet stay centre right, and unfortunately I cannot see who that is - yet
In the run-up to the election someone described Starmer as a lucky general and that luck appears to be holding. Country hasn't been this united for a while thanks to last weekend's cosplay Kristallnacht.
If there has been any appetite for the likes of JRM to engineer a union with Reform that's a no-go for the foreseeable future.
Lots of time in the wilderness beckons.
Ahh, the old "lucky general' thesis.
I've heard this a lot, since I've started observing politics many moons ago. It's an easy explanation, usually trotted out by opponents and/or those with little insight and I just don't think it's ever correct.
Politics and government looks to me to be really bloody hard.
Some things are somewhat out of politicians control, but most things aren't.
Careful planning, an understanding of political history and political dynamics and experience across the whole policy arena, a willingness to delegate, combined with quality staff, drawing from a deep pool of expertise are all very important factors contributing to "luck" when events happen.
And happen, they will.
A skilled politician lays the groundwork and should rightfully be given credit when situations are perceived to go their way.
Chancers who don't have the skills/understanding/do the preparation/all of that ^ good stuff, get found out very quickly and blame bad luck (or turn to conspiracy of their choice).
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Do we expect the next set of local elections to be a GE hangover, and therefore bad for the tories, or the first green shoots of a recovery? Overall the tories kept hold of a surprising number of council seats over their years in national governent - many more than Labour did 1997-2010 for comparison.
I seriously believe the Tories can undo this pathetic Woke Labour government in one term. Starmer only got 33.7% on a shit turnout, this can be overturned in moments, and Starmer is a clueless nasal-voiced Woke twat like all his Cabinet, he won't fix anything, he will make most things worse
But the Tories need a really good leader, able to harness Reform voters yet stay centre right, and unfortunately I cannot see who that is - yet
Just noticed that Starmer got almost exactly the same share of the electorate as Foot in 1983 — 20%. Starmer got 33.7% on a 59.9% turnout and Foot got 27.6% on a 72.7% turnout. [Although in terms of share of the voting age population, Foot will have got a higher percentage, because a higher proportion of the voting age population would have been registered to vote in 1983 compared to now].
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Do we expect the next set of local elections to be a GE hangover, and therefore bad for the tories, or the first green shoots of a recovery? Overall the tories kept hold of a surprising number of council seats over their years in national governent - many more than Labour did 1997-2010 for comparison.
I seriously believe the Tories can undo this pathetic Woke Labour government in one term. Starmer only got 33.7% on a shit turnout, this can be overturned in moments, and Starmer is a clueless nasal-voiced Woke twat like all his Cabinet, he won't fix anything, he will make most things worse
But the Tories need a really good leader, able to harness Reform voters yet stay centre right, and unfortunately I cannot see who that is - yet
Jenrick maybe closest
Genuine LOL.
He'll not last three years as leader.
That would be quite a long stint for a Tory Leader these days.
For the record: Years ago, I read that at least one company was selling women's purses that had concealed holsters, to hold a lady's hand gun. (They probably weren't being sold on those blankets, however.)
Doubt they were much of a success, but can think of places --for instance, Afghanistan -- where they might be useful.
OT. Israelis including Cabinet ministers speaking in support of raping prisoners. Among much horror this is particularly disturbing and it's surprising it hasn't received a wider coverage.
"Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has delayed his family summer holiday to continue to focus on the government's response to the riots."
The psychology of this is so damn crude. There are literally people out there who recon, when the Prime minister goes on holiday, they can go riot/loot - and get away with it.
It's the mindset of the naughty kid in school, when the teacher goes to the toilet.
That's how some of my fellow compatriots think their government works.
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Do we expect the next set of local elections to be a GE hangover, and therefore bad for the tories, or the first green shoots of a recovery? Overall the tories kept hold of a surprising number of council seats over their years in national governent - many more than Labour did 1997-2010 for comparison.
I seriously believe the Tories can undo this pathetic Woke Labour government in one term. Starmer only got 33.7% on a shit turnout, this can be overturned in moments, and Starmer is a clueless nasal-voiced Woke twat like all his Cabinet, he won't fix anything, he will make most things worse
But the Tories need a really good leader, able to harness Reform voters yet stay centre right, and unfortunately I cannot see who that is - yet
Jenrick maybe closest
Genuine LOL.
He'll not last three years as leader.
Depends on how Labour does on the economy and stopping the boats
For the record: Years ago, I read that at least one company was selling women's purses that had concealed holsters, to hold a lady's hand gun. (They probably weren't being sold on those blankets, however.)
Doubt they were much of a success, but can think of places --for instance, Afghanistan -- where they might be useful.
"Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has delayed his family summer holiday to continue to focus on the government's response to the riots."
The psychology of this is so damn crude. There are literally people out there who recon, when the Prime minister goes on holiday, they can go riot/loot - and get away with it.
It's the mindset of the naughty kid in school, when the teacher goes to the toilet.
That's how some of my fellow compatriots think their government works.
I sincerely doubt any of the rioters knew what the holiday plans of the PM were, or would even care.
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
"Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has delayed his family summer holiday to continue to focus on the government's response to the riots."
The psychology of this is so damn crude. There are literally people out there who recon, when the Prime minister goes on holiday, they can go riot/loot - and get away with it.
It's the mindset of the naughty kid in school, when the teacher goes to the toilet.
That's how some of my fellow compatriots think their government works.
I sincerely doubt any of the rioters knew what the holiday plans of the PM were, or would even care.
For the record: Years ago, I read that at least one company was selling women's purses that had concealed holsters, to hold a lady's hand gun. (They probably weren't being sold on those blankets, however.)
Doubt they were much of a success, but can think of places --for instance, Afghanistan -- where they might be useful.
"Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has delayed his family summer holiday to continue to focus on the government's response to the riots."
The psychology of this is so damn crude. There are literally people out there who recon, when the Prime minister goes on holiday, they can go riot/loot - and get away with it.
It's the mindset of the naughty kid in school, when the teacher goes to the toilet.
That's how some of my fellow compatriots think their government works.
I sincerely doubt any of the rioters knew what the holiday plans of the PM were, or would even care.
Still, a flip flop from his 9-5 commitment.
They really do.
What are you basing that on? I find it totally unbelievable.
One good thing about the Farage Riots is that conservative commentators have suddenly noticed that there's an underclass of around 10%-15% who feel cut off from the rest of society. I'm not sure how they didn't notice that before but that's besides the point.
Given a bipartisan inclination to heal this divide in our society, what could this Parliament do to help this 10%-15% have a stake in our country again? Particularly asking PB_Tories here, what could Labour do that you would support them with?
Just found this article in UnHerd which gives a good explanation of what's going on imo. (I assume it's written from what a left-winger would regard as a Tory point of view).
The U.S. Secret Service is apologizing to a Massachusetts salon owner after an agent covered her security camera with duct tape and broke into her salon by picking the lock so that its bathroom could be used by various people for a two-hour period.
After the two-hour period, Secret Service agents left her salon unlocked and left the tape covering the camera.
The woman was told by others that the lead Secret Service agent was directing people to use her salon’s bathroom without authorization.
The agents were in the neighborhood to secure the area ahead of a Kamala Harris fundraiser.
Seems all quiet. Starmers crackdown and massed anti-fascist demonstrations seem to have done for them. That and the football season starting.
Eldest went to the Newcastle one today. "500 lefties 30 racists" was their report.
We had a lovely day in Durham. Nice walk and a drink in Curious Mr Fox and Holy GrAle. All we saw was the usual Palestine mob waving their flags on the bridge.
Riots are done for now.
I just hope labour do something about these communities. I have little hope they will
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Do we expect the next set of local elections to be a GE hangover, and therefore bad for the tories, or the first green shoots of a recovery? Overall the tories kept hold of a surprising number of council seats over their years in national governent - many more than Labour did 1997-2010 for comparison.
I seriously believe the Tories can undo this pathetic Woke Labour government in one term. Starmer only got 33.7% on a shit turnout, this can be overturned in moments, and Starmer is a clueless nasal-voiced Woke twat like all his Cabinet, he won't fix anything, he will make most things worse
But the Tories need a really good leader, able to harness Reform voters yet stay centre right, and unfortunately I cannot see who that is - yet
Jenrick maybe closest
Didn’t Leon vote labour ? That’s some serious buyers remorse.
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Higher taxes and lower growth is where it's heading. Had lunch with a financial advisor this week who reckons half their clients are going to up sticks if Labour do a mad one and put CGT up to 45%.
My guess is that Labour are not going to be that stupid, particularly as HMRC have published a report documenting the billions it will cost them, and Labour have promised to listen to the OBR...
But something tells me no, they're really going to be stupid and go for the jugular of British business. It's like the old story of the frog and the scorpion, the scorpion can't help it, it's in its nature.
CGT of 45%?
Has anyone proposed that other than the Owen Jones brigade?
Was in the Lib dem manifesto, so certainly not limited to the far left.
Normalising CGT with income tax, i.e. 40% on anything above 50k, 45% above 125k (note - about half of all disposals are above 5m, so, effectively, this is taxing most CGT disposals at 45%), reducing entrepreneur's allowance, etc, are all widely predicted.
Every HNWI I know is looking at leaving the UK, and this was confirmed by a financial advisor I spoke to earlier this week who's talking about an exodus of clients. All that money, gone. All that tax revenue, gone. All that investment, gone. It closes the UK for business. We'd literally become the least business friendly country in Europe overnight. Never mind the loss in CGT revenue from people moving to different jurisdictions, the cumulative loss in income tax and corporation tax receipts over the next few years would be devastating.
As I say, it would be an act of enormous economic self harm. But it's one Rachel Reeves has repeatedly refused to rule out (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9v880z470lo ), so we have to assume, for now, that it's definitely on.
Anecdotally my best mate is a partner in a London law firm who advises on tax matter and he says exactly the same as you. People are looking to leave (some have already left) in anticipation of these changes.
I think Reeves is sensible and she was one of the reasons I voted labour. I think she will do something but will dial back on normalising.
Some of the other breakdancing was superb and very athletic. But the Australian routine was dreadful and reminded me of "music and movement" at my primary school; especially the bit where she hopped like a kangaroo.
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Do we expect the next set of local elections to be a GE hangover, and therefore bad for the tories, or the first green shoots of a recovery? Overall the tories kept hold of a surprising number of council seats over their years in national governent - many more than Labour did 1997-2010 for comparison.
I seriously believe the Tories can undo this pathetic Woke Labour government in one term. Starmer only got 33.7% on a shit turnout, this can be overturned in moments, and Starmer is a clueless nasal-voiced Woke twat like all his Cabinet, he won't fix anything, he will make most things worse
But the Tories need a really good leader, able to harness Reform voters yet stay centre right, and unfortunately I cannot see who that is - yet
I don't think that's necessarily true. If Labour f*ck up badly enough it won't matter much who the Conservative leader is or what they say. As you say, Starmer is a dismal politician with no judgement, vision or charisma but still trounced an exhausted, discredited government while Corbyn got within a couple of points of Theresa May. Obviously a decent leader helps, but if the government is dismal enough, people will give the opposition a shot.
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Do we expect the next set of local elections to be a GE hangover, and therefore bad for the tories, or the first green shoots of a recovery? Overall the tories kept hold of a surprising number of council seats over their years in national governent - many more than Labour did 1997-2010 for comparison.
I seriously believe the Tories can undo this pathetic Woke Labour government in one term. Starmer only got 33.7% on a shit turnout, this can be overturned in moments, and Starmer is a clueless nasal-voiced Woke twat like all his Cabinet, he won't fix anything, he will make most things worse
But the Tories need a really good leader, able to harness Reform voters yet stay centre right, and unfortunately I cannot see who that is - yet
In the run-up to the election someone described Starmer as a lucky general and that luck appears to be holding. Country hasn't been this united for a while thanks to last weekend's cosplay Kristallnacht.
If there has been any appetite for the likes of JRM to engineer a union with Reform that's a no-go for the foreseeable future.
Lots of time in the wilderness beckons.
Ahh, the old "lucky general' thesis.
I've heard this a lot, since I've started observing politics many moons ago. It's an easy explanation, usually trotted out by opponents and/or those with little insight and I just don't think it's ever correct.
Politics and government looks to me to be really bloody hard.
Some things are somewhat out of politicians control, but most things aren't.
Careful planning, an understanding of political history and political dynamics and experience across the whole policy arena, a willingness to delegate, combined with quality staff, drawing from a deep pool of expertise are all very important factors contributing to "luck" when events happen.
And happen, they will.
A skilled politician lays the groundwork and should rightfully be given credit when situations are perceived to go their way.
Chancers who don't have the skills/understanding/do the preparation/all of that ^ good stuff, get found out very quickly and blame bad luck (or turn to conspiracy of their choice).
Only their supporters believe them.
I wouldn't disagree with what you say, but that would also appear to be 'table stakes' to even operate as a modern political party.
I'm talking about the 'events, dear boy, events' aspects which then get bundled on top. The best organisation, political machines, economic planning can come to naught faced with a pandemic or a Russian invasion.
Comments
Has anyone proposed that other than the Owen Jones brigade?
If there has been any appetite for the likes of JRM to engineer a union with Reform that's a no-go for the foreseeable future.
Lots of time in the wilderness beckons.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ge30ze4dpo
Normalising CGT with income tax, i.e. 40% on anything above 50k, 45% above 125k (note - about half of all disposals are above 5m, so, effectively, this is taxing most CGT disposals at 45%), reducing entrepreneur's allowance, etc, are all widely predicted.
See
https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/eur/en/insights/wealth-planning/the-future-of-tax-in-the-uk-capital-gains-tax
Wealthy are already selling en masse, see
https://www.ft.com/content/b3bd48f1-3477-4980-8c44-6de4b0ee1fd4
https://www.ft.com/content/34d72fa2-d3b8-439a-886f-f4968c82762a
in anticipation of a potential 45% top rate.
For reference, the current highest rate in Europe is 42% and at 20-24% the UK is distinctly mid table, see
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/massive-uk-tax-grab-would-be-biggest-its-kind-europe-ii532508
Every HNWI I know is looking at leaving the UK, and this was confirmed by a financial advisor I spoke to earlier this week who's talking about an exodus of clients. All that money, gone. All that tax revenue, gone. All that investment, gone. It closes the UK for business. We'd literally become the least business friendly country in Europe overnight. Never mind the loss in CGT revenue from people moving to different jurisdictions, the cumulative loss in income tax and corporation tax receipts over the next few years would be devastating.
As I say, it would be an act of enormous economic self harm. But it's one Rachel Reeves has repeatedly refused to rule out (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9v880z470lo ), so we have to assume, for now, that it's definitely on.
Labour had a clear NEV lead in 2022 though and Labour had a big NEV lead over the Tories in 2023 and 2024 so the local elections of 2026, 2027 and 2028 will likely see Tory gains, especially if Labour is unpopular midterm
He'll not last three years as leader.
I've heard this a lot, since I've started observing politics many moons ago. It's an easy explanation, usually trotted out by opponents and/or those with little insight and I just don't think it's ever correct.
Politics and government looks to me to be really bloody hard.
Some things are somewhat out of politicians control, but most things aren't.
Careful planning, an understanding of political history and political dynamics and experience across the whole policy arena, a willingness to delegate, combined with quality staff, drawing from a deep pool of expertise are all very important factors contributing to "luck" when events happen.
And happen, they will.
A skilled politician lays the groundwork and should rightfully be given credit when situations are perceived to go their way.
Chancers who don't have the skills/understanding/do the preparation/all of that ^ good stuff, get found out very quickly and blame bad luck (or turn to conspiracy of their choice).
Only their supporters believe them.
Happily it was late, which meant that the total signals failure at Selhurst didn't mean that I missed it...
https://x.com/AndrewPRLevi/status/1822265193218322643
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2rGpKBMxm4
"Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has delayed his family summer holiday to continue to focus on the government's response to the riots."
The psychology of this is so damn crude. There are literally people out there who recon, when the Prime minister goes on holiday, they can go riot/loot - and get away with it.
It's the mindset of the naughty kid in school, when the teacher goes to the toilet.
That's how some of my fellow compatriots think their government works.
What is “two-tier” policing?
The conspiratorial belief has spread online, fuelling disorder in Britain"
https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2024/08/09/what-is-two-tier-policing
Still, a flip flop from his 9-5 commitment.
= Kamala Harris wins Nevada.
You heard that here first.
Animal lovers fear legislation will lead to many of the dogs being killed or ending up in overcrowded shelters"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/30/turkey-approves-massacre-law-remove-millions-street-dogs
https://unherd.com/2024/08/the-machiavellian-cause-of-britains-disorder/
The U.S. Secret Service is apologizing to a Massachusetts salon owner after an agent covered her security camera with duct tape and broke into her salon by picking the lock so that its bathroom could be used by various people for a two-hour period.
After the two-hour period, Secret Service agents left her salon unlocked and left the tape covering the camera.
The woman was told by others that the lead Secret Service agent was directing people to use her salon’s bathroom without authorization.
The agents were in the neighborhood to secure the area ahead of a Kamala Harris fundraiser.
Riots are done for now.
I just hope labour do something about these communities. I have little hope they will
I think Reeves is sensible and she was one of the reasons I voted labour. I think she will do something but will dial back on normalising.
https://x.com/hannahberrelli/status/1822258354456084961?s=61
NEW THREAD
Oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them.
I'm talking about the 'events, dear boy, events' aspects which then get bundled on top. The best organisation, political machines, economic planning can come to naught faced with a pandemic or a Russian invasion.
That's what I was trying to get at.