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Crossover happened overnight – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    edited August 2024
    Leon said:

    I really really hope that is true. It is - sincerely - one of my biggest wishes for the future of the world
    As a councillor in East London I spent a fair bit of time talking politics etc. with Asian teenagers, and in the long term those conversations leave me very hopeful. But we’re looking at changes that happen over the generations, rather than anything that will resolve our short term challenges.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,526
    edited August 2024
    HYUFD said:

    The Roman Catholic church hasn't been the national church in the UK since the 16th century, albeit there are still 1.2 billion Roman Catholics globally
    So why are you quoting Catholic gibberish, as opposed to Christian gibberish? You're never going to get back to the good old days, when "the clergy dazzled us with heaven or they damned us into hell."
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,655
    Leon said:

    lol
    Facts are awkward things, aren't they?
  • Monogamy is too cruel a rule.

    Why is it the Catholic church led by a bunch of celibate men get to decide on when Catholics can have sex?

    I mean if you don't play the game you shouldn't be allowed to set the rules.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738
    Trump has a press conference at 7pm tonight (UK time) from Mar-a-Lago..
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311
    DougSeal said:

    I had all of the Lone Wolf books as a kid. Dammit! Although they probably weren't original print runs. And I certainly didn't leave them in good nick.
    Always lost and, of course, went back to the previous choice and pretended I'd made a different one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    eek said:

    Trump has a press conference at 7pm tonight (UK time) from Mar-a-Lago..

    Doesn’t he know we’ll be watching the Olympics?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,655
    edited August 2024
    MaxPB said:

    Indeed, a whole post of "this is bullshit lies!" followed by "oh he's been suspended" without acknowledging the prior defence of this person calling for murdering people.
    I haven't defended anyone, Max.

    I've pointed out that we need to avoid being fools falling for simplistic sectarian narratives pumped out by extremists for the own ends, and keep our brains engaged.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738

    It’s already happening. Planning permission granted last year.

    https://www.largsandmillportnews.com/news/20266847.ayrshire---company-insist-cable-plant-will-bring-900-jobs-hunterston/?utm_source=ground.news&utm_medium=referral
    That's for the factory to make the cables, the landing site is in pre-application mode (see my link from earlier today)..
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    eek said:

    You may think so, yet this is in today's FT and repeated in the Standard tonight https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/visa-skilled-workers-migration-uk-jobs-it-engineer-telecoms-salary-curb-b1175334.html

    Visa requirements for skilled workers in IT, telecommunications and engineering to come to Britain to fill jobs could be tightened up
    Yes, I've been hearing that a new regional approach might be taken with highly skilled workers in London and the SE requiring much higher minimum incomes and a commitment to in office working from companies who want to sponsor people.

    What's interesting is that for my sector, at least, companies from Europe (including mine) come to London because the skills are here, not because it's easy to sponsor low skilled people. What was an Irish company 5 years ago is now a UK company with it's HQ in the square mile.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    MattW said:

    Facts are awkward things, aren't they?
    'Tis very true, my sovereign King,
    My skill may weel be doubted;
    But facts are chiels that winna ding,
    An downa be disputed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548

    Monogamy is too cruel a rule.

    Why is it the Catholic church led by a bunch of celibate men get to decide on when Catholics can have sex?

    I mean if you don't play the game you shouldn't be allowed to set the rules.

    Has anybody told the ECB or the DfE this?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, I've been hearing that a new regional approach might be taken with highly skilled workers in London and the SE requiring much higher minimum incomes and a commitment to in office working from companies who want to sponsor people.

    What's interesting is that for my sector, at least, companies from Europe (including mine) come to London because the skills are here, not because it's easy to sponsor low skilled people. What was an Irish company 5 years ago is now a UK company with it's HQ in the square mile.
    Shall we just say I'm seeing a lot of abuse of tech visas around here with some consultancies bringing in Indian workers while amongst other tricks making local staff redundant...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    edited August 2024
    HYUFD said:

    The Roman Catholic church hasn't been the national church in the UK since the 16th century, albeit there are still 1.2 billion Roman Catholics globally
    Persecution is persecution, and the flavour of absurd belief chosen by those doing it doesn’t really matter. It’s all nonsense and the joy of the modern world is that anyone coming out with statements such as yours nowadays would be disregarded as a rather sad and deluded eccentric, whereas a few hundred years back, the likes of you would probably have been able to get some poor innocent in the village tortured and killed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    IanB2 said:

    As a councillor in East London I spent a fair bit of time talking politics etc. with Asian teenagers, and in the long term those conversations leave me very hopeful. But we’re looking at changes that happen over the generations, rather than anything that will resolve our short term challenges.
    A rare moment of agreement between us! I’m not entirely despairing; I think there is hope. But it will take a lot of time, as you say

    Here is some interesting evidence. A friend of mine has recently been in Kabul, talking to the Taliban. He says they’ve genuinely changed. Why? Because a lot of them have been in exile in places like the UAE where their daughters got good educations and they have brought that personal experience back

    The trouble is the old Taliban f*ckers are as miserable as ever. But the younger ones - some of them - are comparatively enlightened

    🙏
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219
    eek said:

    That's for the factory to make the cables, the landing site is in pre-application mode (see my link from earlier today)..
    The chap I mentioned previously - turning family farm into solar + very small business park - is looking at adding some storage to his solar array.

    One good thing the last government did - under a certain number of MWh, bulk storage doesn't count as a power station for planning purposes. There's basically nothing to stop him parking a couple of shipping containers somewhere. He's thinking of a circular wood on his property - plant with fast growing trees and replace with a mix of more interesting stuff as it grows out.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    edited August 2024
    MattW said:

    Actually I think it does matter - very much. Vidoes are cropped and manipulated for social media, often as a tactic to generate polarisation / reaction for those who want to trade off it. And the first check is "where is this from? what is this source doing?". Then qs such as "is this representative of what happened?" and the rest.

    I'm seeing quite a lot of this in Lee Anderson's FB group. "I agree with this" type of reactions with little reflection as to where it leads. It's like an online marketing funnel in some ways.

    Given that Mayhar Tousi is a prominent Right / Far Right Youtuber trying to look mainstream, and that a tactic being used by the Farage -> Robinson tendency is to platform ethnic minority spokespeople, I think it especially applies here.

    One example I can point to from the other side is the two black athletes who were stopped in their car in London a couple of years by police, allegations of racial profiling, deliberate targeting, dragging out of vehicle etc following. The videoclips which were all over media were clipped to exclude that the couple in the car spent quite some time before they exited the car - so that was context removed from the police actions.
    Absolutely. Being an online extremist is no doubt great fun but there's a price to it and one of these is you forfeit being believed by anybody with their head screwed on. Given most of what these cranks and bigots claim is true is not true the most rational response is to blanket reject all of it without further ado. Anything else is not a good use of your time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    MattW said:

    I haven't defended anyone, Max.

    I've pointed out that we need to avoid being fools falling for simplistic sectarian narratives pumped out by extremists for the own ends, and keep our brains engaged.
    You absolutely tried to defend him. You said the sources were biased. You claimed the whole march was peaceful. You said we needed the fuller context

    No possible context can excuse the inciteful statements that guy made in public. You made yourself look ridiculous
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219
    eek said:

    Shall we just say I'm seeing a lot of abuse of tech visas around here with some consultancies bringing in Indian workers while amongst other tricks making local staff redundant...
    And the setup in the UK - certain firms effectively issuing visas - if perfect for an abuse. Sell the visa to an overseas worker. If you write the terms right, you can force them to work for you at a market uncompetitive wage, as well.
  • HYUFD said:

    And continue with below replacement level birthrate
    Looking at the stats for European countries, there seems to be a pretty close correlation between religious devotion and low birth rates. Countries with higher levels of church attendance (e.g. Italy, Spain, Greece) have lower birth rates than more secular countries (e.g. France, Denmark). So it would seem that less, rather than more, religion is needed in order to raise birth rates.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    Leon said:

    A rare moment of agreement between us! I’m not entirely despairing; I think there is hope. But it will take a lot of time, as you say

    Here is some interesting evidence. A friend of mine has recently been in Kabul, talking to the Taliban. He says they’ve genuinely changed. Why? Because a lot of them have been in exile in places like the UAE where their daughters got good educations and they have brought that personal experience back

    The trouble is the old Taliban f*ckers are as miserable as ever. But the younger ones - some of them - are comparatively enlightened

    🙏
    You’re not so old that you can’t turn around a legacy of otherwise having spent an entire life pointing at stuff and saying that it’s all shit, and leaving the planet having done nothing to make any of it better.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    HYUFD said:

    No that is the other extreme. Below replacement level birth rates just make it inevitable those of working age have to pay ever higher taxes to support the old, retirement ages become later as we need to work longer and economic growth slows.

    Conservatives support the family too, they may not be socialists but they are not laissez faire economic liberals either. Plus now it is the middle class having lower birth rates than the working class if anything as graduate women delay childbirth for careers first
    Oh come on, @HYUFD: you must know that the exceptionally high cost of housing is a massive deterrent to having children early.

    One of my best friends, who I've known since fourth form, got married at 22, bought a house, and had kids early. He worked for the council.

    That would be completely impossible today.

    His children are not going to be able to afford houses - even assuming they save a significant proportion of their disposable income - until they are into their 30s.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    IanB2 said:

    You’re not so old that you can’t turn around a legacy of otherwise having spent an entire life pointing at stuff and saying that it’s all shit, and leaving the planet having done nothing to make any of it better.
    Aaaaaaand back to the bitter old @IanB2

    Never mind. I shall rise serenely above, pleased that at least we agree on some hopeful signs for the world
  • NEW THREAD

  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,655
    Leon said:

    You absolutely tried to defend him. You said the sources were biased. You claimed the whole march was peaceful. You said we needed the fuller context

    No possible context can excuse the inciteful statements that guy made in public. You made yourself look ridiculous
    Nope - pure BS.

    I pointed out that context matters and we need to make judgements based on full information, rather than knee jerks based on edited videoclips.

    Pointing out that Tousi is biased, quoting a reputable media report, and keeping examination of context separate from advocacy is 101 for 14 year olds learning about journalism for writing a school magazine.

    Get a grip, man
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    ydoethur said:

    Has anybody told the ECB or the DfE this?
    Which ECB?

    (Although the criticism could be levelled at both I suppose)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,338
    Leon said:

    A rare moment of agreement between us! I’m not entirely despairing; I think there is hope. But it will take a lot of time, as you say

    Here is some interesting evidence. A friend of mine has recently been in Kabul, talking to the Taliban. He says they’ve genuinely changed. Why? Because a lot of them have been in exile in places like the UAE where their daughters got good educations and they have brought that personal experience back

    The trouble is the old Taliban f*ckers are as miserable as ever. But the younger ones - some of them - are comparatively enlightened

    🙏
    ‘We’ll only chop one of your hands off’

    I believe the Taliban have genuinely cracked down on the smack growing. Of course that’s opened the market up even further for the synthetic opioids, unintended consequences and all that..
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,717

    I think a fair amount of second hand books donated to charity shops end up being sold on to online outfits that have the scale to sell unpopular books to the rare people who want them. You might be able to sell to them directly.

    One such outfit in Ireland will buy books via ziffit.com - might be worth a try.
    Yes. More organised charity shops filter out donations that might do well online, and sell them online.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311
    rcs1000 said:

    Oh come on, @HYUFD: you must know that the exceptionally high cost of housing is a massive deterrent to having children early.

    One of my best friends, who I've known since fourth form, got married at 22, bought a house, and had kids early. He worked for the council.

    Did he end up buying a ship and calling her Dignity?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689
    eek said:

    The Hartlepool riot sentences are starting to be handed out

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/24505054.live-five-sentenced-hartlepool-violent-disorder/

    First 2 got 26 months each..

    Not being able to set foot in Hartlepool for 26 months is a blessing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689

    Monogamy is too cruel a rule.

    Why is it the Catholic church led by a bunch of celibate men get to decide on when Catholics can have sex?

    I mean if you don't play the game you shouldn't be allowed to set the rules.

    Celibate men? I suppose some of them might be.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    To be fair to Boeing, NASA didn’t go for the idea of a common connector, so it didn’t go into the specifications for commercial crew - they thought that would be of no use without common standard for suits. 80% solutions….
    Typical of NASA to not realise that, with two or three different ways to get people up and down to and from the ISS, they might occasionally have reason to use each other’s vehicles. Especially so for the first, experimental, flights.

    Half of me gets the feeling that the political appointee NASA Administrator doesn’t want to give SpaceX the opportunity to gloat ahead of the election, hence the talk of “early 2025”, by which time the eight-day mission will have turned in to eight months!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689
    rcs1000 said:

    The best contraceptive device is a small child.
    Lesbianism is also very effective.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,733
    IanB2 said:

    One hopes that Islam is on the same historical path as Christianity.
    You mean we're due a thirty years' war in Europe which kills a third of the population ?

    I'm hoping they're on a slightly different meander.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 797
    edited August 2024

    See @Mortimer earlier in this thread.

    ETA was it him or someone else looking for a name?
    Mine is a new books bookshop! See avatar...
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    Eabhal said:

    I think it will - Labour will work hard to bring immigration down from the 1.2 million per year under the Tories and bang on about it for the next 5 years.

    "Immigration - down! Growth - up! Fascists - defeated!"

    It's the most obvious example of how the Tories machine gunned their own foot in the run up to the election and salted their legacy until the next one.
    The Tories will (correctly) claim that the inevitable drop in immigration is in large part due to Rishi having tightened up the visa rules which were relaxed a bit too much by Boris. Tricky to explain succinctly without also reinforcing the "Immigration - down!" part of the message.

    As you say, it's an example of how shit the last government was at basic politics - why he didn't he make those changes at the start of his premiership rather than right at the end, so that he would have had at least a chance to reap some of the political reward.

    But the Tories should really try to find some area where the new govt are less likely to meet expectations (infrastructure or housing would be my bet), and start laying the groundwork now so that they can go big on it at the next election. Forget immigration 'til the one after that, it's not going to do them any good at the next election - and banging on about it now will just make swing voters associate them with Refuk.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Leon said:

    On a much brighter note, here’s an excellent article, not by any ex pb-ers, on how technology is making life much easier for autistic people

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-i-learned-to-embrace-my-autism/

    Actually quite uplifting

    That's actually not a bad article on autism. It brings the sensory integration/overload issues directly front and centre, which is one giveaway that it's actually being written by someone with real understanding of ASD (rather than the popular images of ASD).
    Also highlights well the benefits of technology and new ways of working for autistic people.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,796
    Eabhal said:

    Well they didn't know he would come quietly.
    Even if he didn't you don't think 20 to 1 is slight overkill?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,796

    .

    Of course, we could just ignore religion in our everyday lives.
    As most sensible people do whether religious or otherwise. I have a faith it only applies to me not anyone else
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    edited August 2024

    Looking at the stats for European countries, there seems to be a pretty close correlation between religious devotion and low birth rates. Countries with higher levels of church attendance (e.g. Italy, Spain, Greece) have lower birth rates than more secular countries (e.g. France, Denmark). So it would seem that less, rather than more, religion is needed in order to raise birth rates.
    Not true, Catholic Ireland for example has the highest birth rate in Europe and above average religious devotion. In France it is immigrant Muslims having the most babies, same with Denmark. In Italy and Spain it is over 60s most religious and they are well past child bearing years.

    The highest global birthrate in the world is in Africa which is also the most religious continent in the world
This discussion has been closed.