Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
House prices and rent are sky high. There is probably a lot of over factors in play that make getting a better paying job pointless as @BartholomewRoberts would no doubt confirm..
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Chief Whip Alan Campbell ordered Labour MPs not to go to anti-fascist demonstrations.
For safety. Because MPs were being specifically targeted online. But, hey, why let your morning dopamine hate rush be spoiled by actual facts?
Actual facts haven't bothered SKS fans before.
They have stoked racism by their Bangladeshi go home comments and now the taxpayer is picking up the massive police bill as a consequence of the inevitable thickos on the streets
Good God, we are going to have to put up with at least 5 years of this (possibly 10-15 years), aren't we? Until Labour loses and BJO can be happy again.
So you approve of Bangladeshis go home rhetoric and can see no li nk whatsoever to where we are now?
I approve of an actual Labour government not giving an inch compared to a Sunak government that would have caved to appease Reform.
Corbyn failed to beat the Tories twice. If he had been electable we would not have had the Tory anti-immigration rhetoric that led to this. Corbyn was responsible because of his abject failure to beat the right on two different occasions. The Rwanda scheme would never have happened if he was even slightly electable. The Tories were there for the taking in 2017 and he fucked it up and doubled down on his failure in 2019.
There is no point in taking to you. Take up meditation, prayer, yoga, your visceral hatred of one man is not healthy and, in truth, verges on concerning. You have issues on issues.
Corbyn just was not very good in the end. Whatever his positives it wasn't enough, the movement behind him needs to find a new champion as he's not going to be around forever.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
Chill, bruh
She’s going to win. Trump is all over the place trying anti-Biden lines on Harris, and Vance looks a bit sad, like the guy who slept with a girl thinking he’d genuinely scored, but in the morning she’s asking for money
In addition to the safety concerns I imagine there would also be the fear that having prominent public figures there would make it a greater focal point for the protest to happen in the first place.
I think that was a wise decision.
It was to avoid completely buggering the Government over the two tier thing.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Chief Whip Alan Campbell ordered Labour MPs not to go to anti-fascist demonstrations.
Are you really trying to suggest this hasn't been a triumph for SKS and Yvette? They didn't give an inch to the fascists which is something that wouldn't have happened with Sunak and any of his various Home secretaries. Having a man in charge who understood the law worked.
I think there's a question whether the riots would have played out the same way a few months ago when the Conservatives were in power instead of Labour and Reform was a more marginal political force.
The horrible murders of the girls in the dance class that was the actual trigger could have happened at any time. But I'm not sure there would have been the same orchestration by far right actors that gave momentum to the riots.
I disagree with the header. I don't think it's a 50/50 race anymore.
At the moment, it's between a narrow win and a big win.
It needs to be a big win to not be 50/50, given the potential for political resistance to a small victory backed up by some violence.
I would not want to be an honest election official in Arizona, Georgia, or Wisconsin right now. There will be so much political pressure if the result is close.
FTFY because I doubt even the dishonest ones are going to like what they will be asked by Trump and co to do.
And you can guarantee that the person who asks you to do things will deny all knowledge later so even the dishonest ones need to record and document everything to protect their arses.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Its weird (to choose a word) and being noticed that his rallies have fizzled down to almost nothing, that in several states he doesn't have offices and that his advertising is much reduced. I am not one to criticise spending money on lawyers, we deserve your cash, but it does look as if there is comparatively little money left once that has been done.
None of which was necessary as he could pay his own lawyers.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
Chill, bruh
She’s going to win. Trump is all over the place trying anti-Biden lines on Harris, and Vance looks a bit sad, like the guy who slept with a girl thinking he’d genuinely scored, but in the morning she’s asking for money
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
OT while throwing away my books, I've come across Advocates by PB's favourite lawyer, David Pannick, before he became a lord. £15 hardback in 1992, shortly to start its slow journey to the council tip.
Don't throw away books, there'll always be someone interested in them. Support second-hand bookshops.
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
If she got a degree in 2007, she didn't pay more than £1,200 a year in fees. Also, the first two years would have been paid up front.
I disagree with the header. I don't think it's a 50/50 race anymore.
At the moment, it's between a narrow win and a big win.
It needs to be a big win to not be 50/50, given the potential for political resistance to a small victory backed up by some violence.
I would not want to be an honest election official in Arizona, Georgia, or Wisconsin right now. There will be so much political pressure if the result is close.
FTFY because I doubt even the dishonest ones are going to like what they will be asked by Trump and co to do.
And you can guarantee that the person who asks you to do things will deny all knowledge later so even the dishonest ones need to record and document everything to protect their arses.
True enough, though there's more politicians open about how they would have ignored the results last time now.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Its weird (to choose a word) and being noticed that his rallies have fizzled down to almost nothing, that in several states he doesn't have offices and that his advertising is much reduced. I am not one to criticise spending money on lawyers, we deserve your cash, but it does look as if there is comparatively little money left once that has been done.
None of which was necessary as he could pay his own lawyers.
Being blunt I don't think Trump has the money he pretends to have..
And he definitely won't have any money if he was paying for those lawyers himself...
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
If Trump keels over from all that stress before the election, then the Republicans have - gulp - Vance as their offering.
My (only) right-wing hero had an interesting take a week ago:
The investigation reveals that in 2022, Thames Water informed Ofwat it had discovered 312 storm overflows it didn’t know existed and hadn’t been monitoring.
How is it that all these privatised utilities are so mind-bendingly incompetent? That's almost as bad as British Gas.
To be fair, they have a large number of installations of which they know very little, this is a legacy from when they were a public utility and the record keeping was crap, On the other hand they have done very little in the intervening 30 years to get themselves up to speed and Ofwat havent pressured them.
That reminds me of the famous exchange between a boss and a cleaner:
Boss: 'My desk looks as if it hasn't been dusted for a month!'
Cleaner: 'Don't blame me, I only started a fortnight ago.'
If after 30 years they haven't taken the trouble to check what they are responsible for, they've shown zero responsibility and deserve what they're about to get.
It's not just Thames it's all the water utilities. When I was running a team of field engineers in the water industry several times a year we would have a call out for a facility nobody knew anything about. The industry worked on a let it break down basis rather than preventative maintenance. As a result some of the breakdowns were in places which were as much of a surprise to the utility as us.
I think it all stems from a different era when you needed paperwork and an office full of filing cabinet to record what you owned so it was easier not to bother because when you sent an engineer out you didn't want to waste hours looking things up first easier all round to just get on with it.
And then I think many firms haven't bothered doing an asset identification project because the few that have didn't see much benefit from the millions of pounds spent identifying the assets.
I'd add in that there was a human factor with lot of knowledge in peoples heads. When they left or were made redundant the knowledge went with them.
+1 the local engineers would know where everything is and what it was but there was never time or interest to document it..
Also the industry was fragmented. Lots of small to giant municipal schemes no doubt with their own filing systems. I have no idea how well they were married together, or even when.
And the document filed probably only related to reality on the day their were drawn - from that point the unchanged document and reality would have completely diverged.
Not sure how universal that was. One sees emendations on old plans etc. for things like railways, quite often. But BR had to put a lot of effort into bringing together maps and plans from the old railway cos.
Interestingly, they are upgrading the electricity supply cables to the houses on this 1960s built estate where I live, fo make sure there is enough capacity to and fro for heating, EVs, solar panels etc. The contractors puzzled us - they started by digging neat holes in the pavement every few dozen yards and then refilling them, without any apparent work done on the utilities therein exposed. When we inquired of the chap who came round to discuss the side branch installation to our place, he explained that they were simply checking the lay of the cables before doing the actual work, to minimise the final digging.
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
House prices and rent are sky high. There is probably a lot of over factors in play that make getting a better paying job pointless as @BartholomewRoberts would no doubt confirm..
Indeed, I did a double-take reading that because a maths graduate ought to be able to calculate the equivalent tax rate better than saying 38% which is deceptively low still.
Although if she's in her parents house she's probably not getting Universal Credit so doesn't have taper to worry about as many low earners do which is the real killer.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
Can he pass the nomination to her? Wouldn't Vance become the candidate by default?
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
Can he pass the nomination to her? Wouldn't Vance become the candidate by default?
Don't know.
Vance being told not to accept the nomination might be part of the deal.
Harris ahead by 1% in the rust belt marginals might well mean being comfortably ahead in Michigan but still narrowly behind in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin or significantly behind in one of them.
Trump victory scenarios:
WI + AZ + NV + GA PA + GA PA + AZ + NV PA + WI + AZ PA + WI + NV
Unlikely. Those states are demographically very similar, only minor differences.
On topic, I agree with TSE that we're getting fairly close (though perhaps aren't quite there yet) to Trump being the value bet.
Harris has made a strong start and is in a honeymoon period, but that probably won't last until November. The US economy is slowing - probably not disastrously, but it is - and Trump's team are working out their attack lines through a process of trial and error. And if there was an election today, it is quite likely Trump would win even if he narrowly lost the popular vote.
He's plainly in a MUCH weaker position than before Biden stood down, and we've moved on a long way from the rather unwise but somewhat understandable triumphalism of the GOP Convention - but Trump still has a loyal base, a lot of fight, and a good chance of winning.
I disagree with the header. I don't think it's a 50/50 race anymore.
At the moment, it's between a narrow win and a big win.
I think I am still scarred by 2016.
I realised over the weekend I am more emotionally invested in the 2024 US Presidential election than I have ever been in any UK general election or Brexit referendum/Scottish independence referendum and I was pretty emotionally invested in the those too.
The Democrats appear to have learned, though. Every attempt to stir up some party division (which the US media, liberal or otherwise, absolutely loves to cover) just isn't working. I can't recall a time when one wing of the party wasn't having a go at the other, but that seems now to be the prevailing mood.
And they don't get wound up by Trump's bullshit. They're inoculated, and just laugh at him now.
The more I look at it, the smarter Walz is as the VP pick. He's no threat to the next generation - has specifically said that this is the culmination of his career, not a step on the way to the top job - and has been enthusiastically endorsed by everyone from Bernie and AOC to fucking Joe Manchin, who doesn't like anyone.
And they're defending a largely positive record in government.
But as has been noted, there's still three months to go.
There are a lot of people on this site who, like @TSE, are very emotionally attached to what happens in the States and more so than here, and you can see it in here with the commentary around the Harris-Walz ticket. In the spirit of presenting the other side of the argument, here are some points to consider before getting carried away:
1. It is August and early August at that. The US is not paying attention to November (more so this year when you have the Olympics). So trying to read signals into November now is tricky except when, in the rare cases as with Biden, you had a narrative that had been building up and established (i.e. he was too old for the job);
2. You might think the Administration is defending a largely positive record but what you think doesn't count. The US voter generally doesn't. And that is likely to get worse for Harris than better because...
3...the economic data in the States is overall getting worse. The unemployment stats were worse than expected and consumer confidence is being hit. More relevant, US companies in their Q2 results have struck a noticeably more gloomy view on the US consumer and expect this to go into 2025.
4. The scrutiny of Harris and Walz has not really started in terms of their track records. There is plenty of video material of Harris which will be gold dust on the campaign trail. And Walz is already facing questions about his handling of the George Floyd riots. At the end of the day, Harris and Walz - on recent track records - are progressives.
5. Harris may have picked Walz but there are strong indications that Shapiro deliberately exited himself from the VP pick, as Cooper did. You may want to reflect on why. One of the reasons being stated is they didn't want to tie themselves to a campaign they felt would fail and hurt their own chances (at least in the case of Shapiro). You might also reflect that given Shapiro's ambitions, why is he going to want Harris in the Presidency for potentially eight years when he is keen on a run in 2028 - that has implications for how much he helps the ticket in PA.
6. Trump may be struggling with rallies, funding etc. But one way to look at what he is doing is essentially being quiet, reframing his message at a time when Americans are not really listening and then hit hard come September onwards. Some of his lines against Harris have failed. You should be more worried he hasn't continued his flailing. The fact he has gone quiet suggests he is being more disciplined and listening to advice.
7. The election will ultimately come down to the economy. Trump has a clear advantage and probably more so now given Harris and Walz are seen on the left. The Fed is likely to cut rates but it may be seen as too late anyway.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
Presidential pardon doesn't fix any of the state level charges and there are a lot of those...
I don't think the GOP have any answer to the Democratic campaign.
They're recycling all the old tropes, but they just don't resonate anymore. For example, trying to present a ticket of two centrist Democrats as communists is just stupid.
It's Project Fear but with the 'threat' clearly ludicrous to the sort of 'not irredeemably partisan' voters who will decide the election. Meanwhile the Dems are going on positivity rather than their own Project Fear - the grave threat that Trump poses to democracy in the US. This is anything but ludicrous but it wasn't going to do the trick.
I like the contrast being set up. I've said a few times that one of the most off-putting things about Trump/MAGA isn't their policies it's the relentlessly snide, mean-spirited vibe they emit. It's not a general election winning message.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
If Trump keels over from all that stress before the election, then the Republicans have - gulp - Vance as their offering.
My (only) right-wing hero had an interesting take a week ago:
If Harris continues to gain, could DJT take losing to a BAME woman by more than he lost to Biden?
Harris gaining should also see his DJT grift collapse in value before he can cash out, fingers crossed! Just have to hope that Deutsche and/or Credit Suisse / an other "top level financial institution" haven't advanced billions of their clients' funds to him based on the value of his DJT shares.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
I’ve had similar thoughts. He’s 78. Very nearly dying by gunfire must be incredibly traumatic, but the trauma might take time to emerge and affect you
Also: who the F tried to kill Trump and why?! Incredible how the sassytempt has been memory-holed. “Oh just some normal guy with no opinions who was never on the internet. Typical kids, tried to kill a President, often happens, move along”
lol. wtf. Etc. I still reckon it was the Ukes using some sexy girl to seduce a lonely young clean skinned man
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Chief Whip Alan Campbell ordered Labour MPs not to go to anti-fascist demonstrations.
Are you really trying to suggest this hasn't been a triumph for SKS and Yvette? They didn't give an inch to the fascists which is something that wouldn't have happened with Sunak and any of his various Home secretaries. Having a man in charge who understood the law worked.
I doubt it's over yet. The weather is due to improve over the weekend, and Farage probably has more incendiary tweets to pull out of his backside. So this has not yet been a win for Starmer and Cooper.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Chief Whip Alan Campbell ordered Labour MPs not to go to anti-fascist demonstrations.
Are you really trying to suggest this hasn't been a triumph for SKS and Yvette? They didn't give an inch to the fascists which is something that wouldn't have happened with Sunak and any of his various Home secretaries. Having a man in charge who understood the law worked.
I think there's a question whether the riots would have played out the same way a few months ago when the Conservatives were in power instead of Labour and Reform was a more marginal political force.
The horrible murders of the girls in the dance class that was the actual trigger could have happened at any time. But I'm not sure there would have been the same orchestration by far right actors that gave momentum to the riots.
Farage was very much a catalyst. For anyone who needs to know the degree of his mealy mouthed complicity look at Tom Swarbrick's interview with him from Monday.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Its weird (to choose a word) and being noticed that his rallies have fizzled down to almost nothing, that in several states he doesn't have offices and that his advertising is much reduced. I am not one to criticise spending money on lawyers, we deserve your cash, but it does look as if there is comparatively little money left once that has been done.
None of which was necessary as he could pay his own lawyers.
Being blunt I don't think Trump has the money he pretends to have..
And he definitely won't have any money if he was paying for those lawyers himself...
Weren't many of his lawyers a bunch of grifters hoping for a place in a second Trump administration ?
I disagree with the header. I don't think it's a 50/50 race anymore.
At the moment, it's between a narrow win and a big win.
I think I am still scarred by 2016.
I realised over the weekend I am more emotionally invested in the 2024 US Presidential election than I have ever been in any UK general election or Brexit referendum/Scottish independence referendum and I was pretty emotionally invested in the those too.
The Democrats appear to have learned, though. Every attempt to stir up some party division (which the US media, liberal or otherwise, absolutely loves to cover) just isn't working. I can't recall a time when one wing of the party wasn't having a go at the other, but that seems now to be the prevailing mood.
And they don't get wound up by Trump's bullshit. They're inoculated, and just laugh at him now.
The more I look at it, the smarter Walz is as the VP pick. He's no threat to the next generation - has specifically said that this is the culmination of his career, not a step on the way to the top job - and has been enthusiastically endorsed by everyone from Bernie and AOC to fucking Joe Manchin, who doesn't like anyone.
And they're defending a largely positive record in government.
But as has been noted, there's still three months to go.
There are a lot of people on this site who, like @TSE, are very emotionally attached to what happens in the States and more so than here, and you can see it in here with the commentary around the Harris-Walz ticket. In the spirit of presenting the other side of the argument, here are some points to consider before getting carried away:
1. It is August and early August at that. The US is not paying attention to November (more so this year when you have the Olympics). So trying to read signals into November now is tricky except when, in the rare cases as with Biden, you had a narrative that had been building up and established (i.e. he was too old for the job);
2. You might think the Administration is defending a largely positive record but what you think doesn't count. The US voter generally doesn't. And that is likely to get worse for Harris than better because...
3...the economic data in the States is overall getting worse. The unemployment stats were worse than expected and consumer confidence is being hit. More relevant, US companies in their Q2 results have struck a noticeably more gloomy view on the US consumer and expect this to go into 2025.
4. The scrutiny of Harris and Walz has not really started in terms of their track records. There is plenty of video material of Harris which will be gold dust on the campaign trail. And Walz is already facing questions about his handling of the George Floyd riots. At the end of the day, Harris and Walz - on recent track records - are progressives.
5. Harris may have picked Walz but there are strong indications that Shapiro deliberately exited himself from the VP pick, as Cooper did. You may want to reflect on why. One of the reasons being stated is they didn't want to tie themselves to a campaign they felt would fail and hurt their own chances (at least in the case of Shapiro). You might also reflect that given Shapiro's ambitions, why is he going to want Harris in the Presidency for potentially eight years when he is keen on a run in 2028 - that has implications for how much he helps the ticket in PA.
6. Trump may be struggling with rallies, funding etc. But one way to look at what he is doing is essentially being quiet, reframing his message at a time when Americans are not really listening and then hit hard come September onwards. Some of his lines against Harris have failed. You should be more worried he hasn't continued his flailing. The fact he has gone quiet suggests he is being more disciplined and listening to advice.
7. The election will ultimately come down to the economy. Trump has a clear advantage and probably more so now given Harris and Walz are seen on the left. The Fed is likely to cut rates but it may be seen as too late anyway.
On 5 Walz has already said he won't stand to be President (he's 60 and seems to be the sort of person who is looking forward to a quiet retirement). Which means that were Harris to win Shapiro will get a suitable reward (Secretary of State) that positions him to be No 1 choice in 2032 when he will be 59...
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
Presidential pardon doesn't fix any of the state level charges and there are a lot of those...
Well the pair of Dem clowns in GA have managed to stuff things up themselves.
With Trump out of politics it could all fade away.
OT while throwing away my books, I've come across Advocates by PB's favourite lawyer, David Pannick, before he became a lord. £15 hardback in 1992, shortly to start its slow journey to the council tip.
Don't throw away books, there'll always be someone interested in them. Support second-hand bookshops.
I went to a bookshop at the weekend. They are only accepting donations of Sci-Fi and Fantasy. A charity shop will take any books though.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Chief Whip Alan Campbell ordered Labour MPs not to go to anti-fascist demonstrations.
Are you really trying to suggest this hasn't been a triumph for SKS and Yvette? They didn't give an inch to the fascists which is something that wouldn't have happened with Sunak and any of his various Home secretaries. Having a man in charge who understood the law worked.
I doubt it's over yet. The weather is due to improve over the weekend, and Farage probably has more incendiary tweets to pull out of his backside. So this has not yet been a win for Starmer and Cooper.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Chief Whip Alan Campbell ordered Labour MPs not to go to anti-fascist demonstrations.
Are you really trying to suggest this hasn't been a triumph for SKS and Yvette? They didn't give an inch to the fascists which is something that wouldn't have happened with Sunak and any of his various Home secretaries. Having a man in charge who understood the law worked.
I think there's a question whether the riots would have played out the same way a few months ago when the Conservatives were in power instead of Labour and Reform was a more marginal political force.
The horrible murders of the girls in the dance class that was the actual trigger could have happened at any time. But I'm not sure there would have been the same orchestration by far right actors that gave momentum to the riots.
Farage was very much a catalyst. For anyone who needs to know the degree of his mealy mouthed complicity look at Tom Swarbrick's interview with him from Monday.
Kier Starmer cynically plays the long game... he could put troops on the street, but then the right will call him a dictator. He can also let the populist right destroy its own credibility in politics by showing the world what they do to local communities ...showing the world what methods it supports. In a year the populists will still be married to this and there will be an endless source of criticism to direct at braverman and farage going into 2029... look at the various hard right commentators like Heath in the Telegraph: back peddaling like crazy... they know that looting Lush and burning community libraries is a disaster. As with brexit the populists are not playing the game strategically... Starmer is. A quick gratification of primal violent urges and you have burnt the legitimacy of your political project to the ground. No game plan going forward... just instinct and reflect and short termism... that is what did away with brexit too.
The investigation reveals that in 2022, Thames Water informed Ofwat it had discovered 312 storm overflows it didn’t know existed and hadn’t been monitoring.
How is it that all these privatised utilities are so mind-bendingly incompetent? That's almost as bad as British Gas.
They (or rather, some special purpose vehicle on their behalf) just built a new tunnel bigger than the Elizabeth line* to deal with these overflows. Presumably they felt that adding capacity was a better investment than just really precisely identifying where the lack of capacity was hurting us.
The new tunnel is due to be fully commissioned and utilised by next year. If that doesn't solve the problem (at least in London) then there will be some very, very, red faces.
* Technically, bigger than one side of the Elizabeth line, as it's one tunnel not two. After all, we don't want the sewage to make a return journey.
I disagree with the header. I don't think it's a 50/50 race anymore.
At the moment, it's between a narrow win and a big win.
I think I am still scarred by 2016.
I realised over the weekend I am more emotionally invested in the 2024 US Presidential election than I have ever been in any UK general election or Brexit referendum/Scottish independence referendum and I was pretty emotionally invested in the those too.
The Democrats appear to have learned, though. Every attempt to stir up some party division (which the US media, liberal or otherwise, absolutely loves to cover) just isn't working. I can't recall a time when one wing of the party wasn't having a go at the other, but that seems now to be the prevailing mood.
And they don't get wound up by Trump's bullshit. They're inoculated, and just laugh at him now.
The more I look at it, the smarter Walz is as the VP pick. He's no threat to the next generation - has specifically said that this is the culmination of his career, not a step on the way to the top job - and has been enthusiastically endorsed by everyone from Bernie and AOC to fucking Joe Manchin, who doesn't like anyone.
And they're defending a largely positive record in government.
But as has been noted, there's still three months to go.
There are a lot of people on this site who, like @TSE, are very emotionally attached to what happens in the States and more so than here, and you can see it in here with the commentary around the Harris-Walz ticket. In the spirit of presenting the other side of the argument, here are some points to consider before getting carried away:
1. It is August and early August at that. The US is not paying attention to November (more so this year when you have the Olympics). So trying to read signals into November now is tricky except when, in the rare cases as with Biden, you had a narrative that had been building up and established (i.e. he was too old for the job);
2. You might think the Administration is defending a largely positive record but what you think doesn't count. The US voter generally doesn't. And that is likely to get worse for Harris than better because...
3...the economic data in the States is overall getting worse. The unemployment stats were worse than expected and consumer confidence is being hit. More relevant, US companies in their Q2 results have struck a noticeably more gloomy view on the US consumer and expect this to go into 2025.
4. The scrutiny of Harris and Walz has not really started in terms of their track records. There is plenty of video material of Harris which will be gold dust on the campaign trail. And Walz is already facing questions about his handling of the George Floyd riots. At the end of the day, Harris and Walz - on recent track records - are progressives.
5. Harris may have picked Walz but there are strong indications that Shapiro deliberately exited himself from the VP pick, as Cooper did. You may want to reflect on why. One of the reasons being stated is they didn't want to tie themselves to a campaign they felt would fail and hurt their own chances (at least in the case of Shapiro). You might also reflect that given Shapiro's ambitions, why is he going to want Harris in the Presidency for potentially eight years when he is keen on a run in 2028 - that has implications for how much he helps the ticket in PA.
6. Trump may be struggling with rallies, funding etc. But one way to look at what he is doing is essentially being quiet, reframing his message at a time when Americans are not really listening and then hit hard come September onwards. Some of his lines against Harris have failed. You should be more worried he hasn't continued his flailing. The fact he has gone quiet suggests he is being more disciplined and listening to advice.
7. The election will ultimately come down to the economy. Trump has a clear advantage and probably more so now given Harris and Walz are seen on the left. The Fed is likely to cut rates but it may be seen as too late anyway.
On 5 Walz has already said he won't stand to be President (he's 60 and seems to be the sort of person who is looking forward to a quiet retirement). Which means that were Harris to win Shapiro will get a suitable reward (Secretary of State) that positions him to be No 1 choice in 2032 when he will be 59...
Although if Walz decided to be a one-term VP that might open it up to a younger candidate in 2028 - Shapiro, Butigieg, Beshear - when issues around state governorships for the first and last will be much reduced.
The investigation reveals that in 2022, Thames Water informed Ofwat it had discovered 312 storm overflows it didn’t know existed and hadn’t been monitoring.
How is it that all these privatised utilities are so mind-bendingly incompetent? That's almost as bad as British Gas.
They (or rather, some special purpose vehicle on their behalf) just built a new tunnel bigger than the Elizabeth line* to deal with these overflows. Presumably they felt that adding capacity was a better investment than just really precisely identifying where the lack of capacity was hurting us.
The new tunnel is due to be fully commissioned and utilised by next year. If that doesn't solve the problem (at least in London) then there will be some very, very, red faces.
* Technically, bigger than one side of the Elizabeth line, as it's one tunnel not two. After all, we don't want the sewage to make a return journey.
I dunno. It looks to me like a lot of their shit is coming right back at them...
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Chief Whip Alan Campbell ordered Labour MPs not to go to anti-fascist demonstrations.
Are you really trying to suggest this hasn't been a triumph for SKS and Yvette? They didn't give an inch to the fascists which is something that wouldn't have happened with Sunak and any of his various Home secretaries. Having a man in charge who understood the law worked.
Yep they've handled it well. And good to see lots of anti-racist gatherings across the country, all peaceful. Anti-racists seem to be able to manage that a bit better than racists, don't they. The contrast is quite stark. A case of Two Tier Protesting really.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Chief Whip Alan Campbell ordered Labour MPs not to go to anti-fascist demonstrations.
Are you really trying to suggest this hasn't been a triumph for SKS and Yvette? They didn't give an inch to the fascists which is something that wouldn't have happened with Sunak and any of his various Home secretaries. Having a man in charge who understood the law worked.
I doubt it's over yet. The weather is due to improve over the weekend, and Farage probably has more incendiary tweets to pull out of his backside. So this has not yet been a win for Starmer and Cooper.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Chief Whip Alan Campbell ordered Labour MPs not to go to anti-fascist demonstrations.
Are you really trying to suggest this hasn't been a triumph for SKS and Yvette? They didn't give an inch to the fascists which is something that wouldn't have happened with Sunak and any of his various Home secretaries. Having a man in charge who understood the law worked.
I think there's a question whether the riots would have played out the same way a few months ago when the Conservatives were in power instead of Labour and Reform was a more marginal political force.
The horrible murders of the girls in the dance class that was the actual trigger could have happened at any time. But I'm not sure there would have been the same orchestration by far right actors that gave momentum to the riots.
Farage was very much a catalyst. For anyone who needs to know the degree of his mealy mouthed complicity look at Tom Swarbrick's interview with him from Monday.
Kier Starmer cynically plays the long game... he could put troops on the street, but then the right will call him a dictator. He can also let the populist right destroy its own credibility in politics by showing the world what they do to local communities ...showing the world what methods it supports. In a year the populists will still be married to this and there will be an endless source of criticism to direct at braverman and farage going into 2029... look at the various hard right commentators like Heath in the Telegraph: back peddaling like crazy... they know that looting Lush and burning community libraries is a disaster. As with brexit the populists are not playing the game strategically... Starmer is. A quick gratification of primal violent urges and you have burnt the legitimacy of your political project to the ground. No game plan going forward... just instinct and reflect and short termism... that is what did away with brexit too.
No offence intended, but I didn't understand your post the first time. Are you suggesting populism in the UK will self-combust? I am not sure that is correct.
OT while throwing away my books, I've come across Advocates by PB's favourite lawyer, David Pannick, before he became a lord. £15 hardback in 1992, shortly to start its slow journey to the council tip.
If that poll had Biden at 46% with White voters the it wasn't very accurate in the first place. Harris is very unlikely to be beating Biden '08 with white voters.
If that poll had Biden at 46% with White voters the it wasn't very accurate in the first place. Harris is very unlikely to be beating Biden '08 with white voters.
Do you mean Biden '20 or Obama '08?
(Not that I think you're wrong, whichever it is, but there is quite a difference.)
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
*Raises eyebrows*
Has Governor Walz's daughter taken up a new career?
You’re going to have to explain that one to me.
Suggesting the utterly charming Hope Walz has taken up the job of a hit man.
Er...surely she would be a hit woman?
(She's brilliant in those videos with her dad though. They're hilarious.)
They’re not hilarious
They just a normal family having fun on a Daddy-Daughter Day.
If that poll had Biden at 46% with White voters the it wasn't very accurate in the first place. Harris is very unlikely to be beating Biden '08 with white voters.
Have I got brain fog or is this "posting in riddles" day on PB?
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
*Raises eyebrows*
Has Governor Walz's daughter taken up a new career?
You’re going to have to explain that one to me.
Suggesting the utterly charming Hope Walz has taken up the job of a hit man.
Still reckon Sunil would have been a gold medal winner - if only his mum had forced him into it.
Synchronised Trainspotting!
Does anyone else remember the TV film "Anorak of Fire"? Touched briefly on the improbable and almost certainly made-up world of competitive trainspotting.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
I’ve had similar thoughts. He’s 78. Very nearly dying by gunfire must be incredibly traumatic, but the trauma might take time to emerge and affect you
Also: who the F tried to kill Trump and why?! Incredible how the sassytempt has been memory-holed. “Oh just some normal guy with no opinions who was never on the internet. Typical kids, tried to kill a President, often happens, move along”
lol. wtf. Etc. I still reckon it was the Ukes using some sexy girl to seduce a lonely young clean skinned man
Once you get an incorrect idea in your head you're almost as unflappable in that mistake as HYUFD and his adding Reform and Tory vote share together. Almost because your manic behaviour means you'll end up tipping the other side anyway rather than being totally consistent.
Its already been confirmed that the shooter was discussing politics online, yet you still persist with this myth that he was not.
And yes its far too normal for shootings to occur in America. They occur almost every day.
Close to half of the Presidents of America have been shot at.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
*Raises eyebrows*
Has Governor Walz's daughter taken up a new career?
You’re going to have to explain that one to me.
Suggesting the utterly charming Hope Walz has taken up the job of a hit man.
Er...surely she would be a hit woman?
(She's brilliant in those videos with her dad though. They're hilarious.)
They’re not hilarious
They just a normal family having fun on a Daddy-Daughter Day.
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
She graduated when I did, her student debt will be minimal, not like the kids graduating today. I left with ~£15k in debt, today's graduates leave with ~£50k in debt. She's a moron, £15k takes no time at all to clear.
OT while throwing away my books, I've come across Advocates by PB's favourite lawyer, David Pannick, before he became a lord. £15 hardback in 1992, shortly to start its slow journey to the council tip.
Don't throw away books, there'll always be someone interested in them. Support second-hand bookshops.
Sadly, there aren't. It's not just me, friends report charity bookshops were not even interested in signed copies. The old ecosystem where prolific readers used charity shops as a lending library are gone, as have the dedicated second hand bookshops of Bloomsbury and Charing Cross Road.
Most of my books are out-of-date tech books whose information is readily available online. The rest, well, it's possible I might get the odd nibble from Ebay but the hassle of listing them all, and then having to pack and post them when it's not a full-time hobby, is disproportionate.
But it is sad and frustrating, which is why it is taking so long as I stop to ponder each volume. I'm not a barrister so why buy Advocates more than 30 years ago? I can only assume Pannick had been on television or in the news around that time.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Chief Whip Alan Campbell ordered Labour MPs not to go to anti-fascist demonstrations.
Are you really trying to suggest this hasn't been a triumph for SKS and Yvette? They didn't give an inch to the fascists which is something that wouldn't have happened with Sunak and any of his various Home secretaries. Having a man in charge who understood the law worked.
I doubt it's over yet. The weather is due to improve over the weekend, and Farage probably has more incendiary tweets to pull out of his backside. So this has not yet been a win for Starmer and Cooper.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Chief Whip Alan Campbell ordered Labour MPs not to go to anti-fascist demonstrations.
Are you really trying to suggest this hasn't been a triumph for SKS and Yvette? They didn't give an inch to the fascists which is something that wouldn't have happened with Sunak and any of his various Home secretaries. Having a man in charge who understood the law worked.
I think there's a question whether the riots would have played out the same way a few months ago when the Conservatives were in power instead of Labour and Reform was a more marginal political force.
The horrible murders of the girls in the dance class that was the actual trigger could have happened at any time. But I'm not sure there would have been the same orchestration by far right actors that gave momentum to the riots.
Farage was very much a catalyst. For anyone who needs to know the degree of his mealy mouthed complicity look at Tom Swarbrick's interview with him from Monday.
Kier Starmer cynically plays the long game... he could put troops on the street, but then the right will call him a dictator. He can also let the populist right destroy its own credibility in politics by showing the world what they do to local communities ...showing the world what methods it supports. In a year the populists will still be married to this and there will be an endless source of criticism to direct at braverman and farage going into 2029... look at the various hard right commentators like Heath in the Telegraph: back peddaling like crazy... they know that looting Lush and burning community libraries is a disaster. As with brexit the populists are not playing the game strategically... Starmer is. A quick gratification of primal violent urges and you have burnt the legitimacy of your political project to the ground. No game plan going forward... just instinct and reflect and short termism... that is what did away with brexit too.
No offence intended, but I didn't understand your post the first time. Are you suggesting populism in the UK will self-combust? I am not sure that is correct.
No, that would be wild. I think it is on a long term decline due to erosion of the boomer vote. What I am suggesting is that this will cost it the marina's needed to become an elective political movement. It might solidify a core, but every other segment will be shun affiliation.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
I’ve had similar thoughts. He’s 78. Very nearly dying by gunfire must be incredibly traumatic, but the trauma might take time to emerge and affect you
Also: who the F tried to kill Trump and why?! Incredible how the sassytempt has been memory-holed. “Oh just some normal guy with no opinions who was never on the internet. Typical kids, tried to kill a President, often happens, move along”
lol. wtf. Etc. I still reckon it was the Ukes using some sexy girl to seduce a lonely young clean skinned man
The playbook is much more Russian.
In the end Trump was not seriously hurt, but the shooter was killed "with an incredibly lucky shot".
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
I’ve had similar thoughts. He’s 78. Very nearly dying by gunfire must be incredibly traumatic, but the trauma might take time to emerge and affect you
Also: who the F tried to kill Trump and why?! Incredible how the sassytempt has been memory-holed. “Oh just some normal guy with no opinions who was never on the internet. Typical kids, tried to kill a President, often happens, move along”
lol. wtf. Etc. I still reckon it was the Ukes using some sexy girl to seduce a lonely young clean skinned man
The playbook is much more Russian.
In the end Trump was not seriously hurt, but the shooter was killed "with an incredibly lucky shot".
Trump was incredibly incredibly lucky - if he had not moved his head in that specific direction and at that c. 1/4 of a second - he would have been dead.
Not sure about your comment that "the shooter was killed "with an incredibly lucky shot" - what Secret Service snipers are supposed to do, no?
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
I’ve had similar thoughts. He’s 78. Very nearly dying by gunfire must be incredibly traumatic, but the trauma might take time to emerge and affect you
Also: who the F tried to kill Trump and why?! Incredible how the sassytempt has been memory-holed. “Oh just some normal guy with no opinions who was never on the internet. Typical kids, tried to kill a President, often happens, move along”
lol. wtf. Etc. I still reckon it was the Ukes using some sexy girl to seduce a lonely young clean skinned man
Once you get an incorrect idea in your head you're almost as unflappable in that mistake as HYUFD and his adding Reform and Tory vote share together. Almost because your manic behaviour means you'll end up tipping the other side anyway rather than being totally consistent.
Its already been confirmed that the shooter was discussing politics online, yet you still persist with this myth that he was not.
And yes its far too normal for shootings to occur in America. They occur almost every day.
Close to half of the Presidents of America have been shot at.
Yeah, but I’m infinitely smarter than you, so there’s that
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
I’ve had similar thoughts. He’s 78. Very nearly dying by gunfire must be incredibly traumatic, but the trauma might take time to emerge and affect you
Also: who the F tried to kill Trump and why?! Incredible how the sassytempt has been memory-holed. “Oh just some normal guy with no opinions who was never on the internet. Typical kids, tried to kill a President, often happens, move along”
lol. wtf. Etc. I still reckon it was the Ukes using some sexy girl to seduce a lonely young clean skinned man
The playbook is much more Russian.
In the end Trump was not seriously hurt, but the shooter was killed "with an incredibly lucky shot".
Are you suggesting the whole thing was staged by Putin to help Trump?!
That’s how it reads, but I may be misconstruing you
If that poll had Biden at 46% with White voters the it wasn't very accurate in the first place. Harris is very unlikely to be beating Biden '08 with white voters.
Have I got brain fog or is this "posting in riddles" day on PB?
OT while throwing away my books, I've come across Advocates by PB's favourite lawyer, David Pannick, before he became a lord. £15 hardback in 1992, shortly to start its slow journey to the council tip.
Don't throw away books, there'll always be someone interested in them. Support second-hand bookshops.
Sadly, there aren't. It's not just me, friends report charity bookshops were not even interested in signed copies. The old ecosystem where prolific readers used charity shops as a lending library are gone, as have the dedicated second hand bookshops of Bloomsbury and Charing Cross Road.
Most of my books are out-of-date tech books whose information is readily available online. The rest, well, it's possible I might get the odd nibble from Ebay but the hassle of listing them all, and then having to pack and post them when it's not a full-time hobby, is disproportionate.
But it is sad and frustrating, which is why it is taking so long as I stop to ponder each volume. I'm not a barrister so why buy Advocates more than 30 years ago? I can only assume Pannick had been on television or in the news around that time.
Been finding that too with clearing relatives' houses and doing the usual 60-something clearout post retirement. Certainly for ordinary charity shops, though the specialist charity bookshops in Edinburgh have been better (not much use to you). In the end we simply dumped our unwanted books to add to those in a deceased relative's house which we were getting a charity with a specialist furniture shop to clear - they have a specialist bookshop as well. That way we got the books cleared.
I don't know what it is. Booklovers dying off? Houses too small these days?
But obsolete editions of tech books can go into the recycling bin (not tip) without any compunction.
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
Student loans have become complicated, so I may need help with this bit of the Guardian story:
Olivia took a lower paid job because her monthly payments were £350, ie £4200 pa. This £4200 would be 9% of earnings over the threshold (which can differ) say about £26000. £4200 is 9% of over £46,000 which added to the threshold is £72000 earnings.
Round here £72000 is a lot.
My sympathy is finite. Are my figures about correct?
(BTW the article never mentions that monthly payments relate only to earnings and not how much you have borrowed; and I am opposed to the loan system).
OT while throwing away my books, I've come across Advocates by PB's favourite lawyer, David Pannick, before he became a lord. £15 hardback in 1992, shortly to start its slow journey to the council tip.
Don't throw away books, there'll always be someone interested in them. Support second-hand bookshops.
Sadly, there aren't. It's not just me, friends report charity bookshops were not even interested in signed copies. The old ecosystem where prolific readers used charity shops as a lending library are gone, as have the dedicated second hand bookshops of Bloomsbury and Charing Cross Road.
Most of my books are out-of-date tech books whose information is readily available online. The rest, well, it's possible I might get the odd nibble from Ebay but the hassle of listing them all, and then having to pack and post them when it's not a full-time hobby, is disproportionate.
But it is sad and frustrating, which is why it is taking so long as I stop to ponder each volume. I'm not a barrister so why buy Advocates more than 30 years ago? I can only assume Pannick had been on television or in the news around that time.
There is normally a charity book area in certain larger branches of Tesco. You might see a Haynes Manual for a Hillman Avenger and you think well that won't sell, and the next time you rifle through, it's gone.
I disagree with the header. I don't think it's a 50/50 race anymore.
At the moment, it's between a narrow win and a big win.
I think I am still scarred by 2016.
I realised over the weekend I am more emotionally invested in the 2024 US Presidential election than I have ever been in any UK general election or Brexit referendum/Scottish independence referendum and I was pretty emotionally invested in the those too.
The Democrats appear to have learned, though. Every attempt to stir up some party division (which the US media, liberal or otherwise, absolutely loves to cover) just isn't working. I can't recall a time when one wing of the party wasn't having a go at the other, but that seems now to be the prevailing mood.
And they don't get wound up by Trump's bullshit. They're inoculated, and just laugh at him now.
The more I look at it, the smarter Walz is as the VP pick. He's no threat to the next generation - has specifically said that this is the culmination of his career, not a step on the way to the top job - and has been enthusiastically endorsed by everyone from Bernie and AOC to fucking Joe Manchin, who doesn't like anyone.
And they're defending a largely positive record in government.
But as has been noted, there's still three months to go.
There are a lot of people on this site who, like @TSE, are very emotionally attached to what happens in the States and more so than here, and you can see it in here with the commentary around the Harris-Walz ticket. In the spirit of presenting the other side of the argument, here are some points to consider before getting carried away:
1. It is August and early August at that. The US is not paying attention to November (more so this year when you have the Olympics). So trying to read signals into November now is tricky except when, in the rare cases as with Biden, you had a narrative that had been building up and established (i.e. he was too old for the job);
2. You might think the Administration is defending a largely positive record but what you think doesn't count. The US voter generally doesn't. And that is likely to get worse for Harris than better because...
3...the economic data in the States is overall getting worse. The unemployment stats were worse than expected and consumer confidence is being hit. More relevant, US companies in their Q2 results have struck a noticeably more gloomy view on the US consumer and expect this to go into 2025.
4. The scrutiny of Harris and Walz has not really started in terms of their track records. There is plenty of video material of Harris which will be gold dust on the campaign trail. And Walz is already facing questions about his handling of the George Floyd riots. At the end of the day, Harris and Walz - on recent track records - are progressives.
5. Harris may have picked Walz but there are strong indications that Shapiro deliberately exited himself from the VP pick, as Cooper did. You may want to reflect on why. One of the reasons being stated is they didn't want to tie themselves to a campaign they felt would fail and hurt their own chances (at least in the case of Shapiro). You might also reflect that given Shapiro's ambitions, why is he going to want Harris in the Presidency for potentially eight years when he is keen on a run in 2028 - that has implications for how much he helps the ticket in PA.
6. Trump may be struggling with rallies, funding etc. But one way to look at what he is doing is essentially being quiet, reframing his message at a time when Americans are not really listening and then hit hard come September onwards. Some of his lines against Harris have failed. You should be more worried he hasn't continued his flailing. The fact he has gone quiet suggests he is being more disciplined and listening to advice.
7. The election will ultimately come down to the economy. Trump has a clear advantage and probably more so now given Harris and Walz are seen on the left. The Fed is likely to cut rates but it may be seen as too late anyway.
On 5 Walz has already said he won't stand to be President (he's 60 and seems to be the sort of person who is looking forward to a quiet retirement). Which means that were Harris to win Shapiro will get a suitable reward (Secretary of State) that positions him to be No 1 choice in 2032 when he will be 59...
Shapiro will not get the SoS position because he is seen as too pro-Israel and it would set the party at odds again. He also may not want to be SoS at a time when the world is getting 'hotter'. And allies may not want a first term US Governor as SoS in such a dangerous world environment.
OT while throwing away my books, I've come across Advocates by PB's favourite lawyer, David Pannick, before he became a lord. £15 hardback in 1992, shortly to start its slow journey to the council tip.
Why not cancer research?
Because in general charity shops are not interested in hundreds of second hand books any more.
OT while throwing away my books, I've come across Advocates by PB's favourite lawyer, David Pannick, before he became a lord. £15 hardback in 1992, shortly to start its slow journey to the council tip.
Don't throw away books, there'll always be someone interested in them. Support second-hand bookshops.
Sadly, there aren't. It's not just me, friends report charity bookshops were not even interested in signed copies. The old ecosystem where prolific readers used charity shops as a lending library are gone, as have the dedicated second hand bookshops of Bloomsbury and Charing Cross Road.
Most of my books are out-of-date tech books whose information is readily available online. The rest, well, it's possible I might get the odd nibble from Ebay but the hassle of listing them all, and then having to pack and post them when it's not a full-time hobby, is disproportionate.
But it is sad and frustrating, which is why it is taking so long as I stop to ponder each volume. I'm not a barrister so why buy Advocates more than 30 years ago? I can only assume Pannick had been on television or in the news around that time.
There is normally a charity book area in certain larger branches of Tesco. You might see a Haynes Manual for a Hillman Avenger and you think well that won't sell, and the next time you rifle through, it's gone.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Its weird (to choose a word) and being noticed that his rallies have fizzled down to almost nothing, that in several states he doesn't have offices and that his advertising is much reduced. I am not one to criticise spending money on lawyers, we deserve your cash, but it does look as if there is comparatively little money left once that has been done.
"...spending money on lawyers, we deserve your cash, but it does look as if there is comparatively little money left once that has been done."
Isn't that always the case? ;-)
“ Very well indeed, sir,” returned Mr. Kenge, with a certain condescending laugh he had. “ Very well ! You are further to reflect, Mr. Woodcourt,” becoming dignified almost to Severity, ” that on the numerous difficulties, contingencies, masterly fictions, and forms of procedure in this great cause, there has been expended study, ability, eloquence, knowledge, intellect, Mr. Woodcourt, high intellect. For many years, the — a — I would say the flower of the Bar, and the — a — I would presume to add, the matured autumnal fruit of the Woolsack — have been lavished upon Jam- dyce and Jarndyce. If the public have the benefit, and if the country have the adornment, of this great Grasp, it must be paid for in money or money’s worth, sir.”
•“ Mr, Kengc,” said Allan, appearing enlightened all in a moment. ** Excuse me, our time presses. Do I understand that the whole estate is found to have been absorbed in costs ? ”
“ Hem ! I believe so,” returned Mr. Kenge. “ Mr. Vholes, what do you say ? ”
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Sounds unlikely to me, but as my previous trading left me green on Haley, I don't care that I don't know.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
Can he pass the nomination to her? Wouldn't Vance become the candidate by default?
Don't know.
Vance being told not to accept the nomination might be part of the deal.
They'll have to act fast.
Dates and Deadlines Here are voter dates and deadlines for the 2024 general election in North Carolina:
Sept. 6, 2024: County boards of elections begin mailing absentee ballots to eligible voters who submitted an absentee ballot request form.
I disagree with the header. I don't think it's a 50/50 race anymore.
At the moment, it's between a narrow win and a big win.
I think I am still scarred by 2016.
I realised over the weekend I am more emotionally invested in the 2024 US Presidential election than I have ever been in any UK general election or Brexit referendum/Scottish independence referendum and I was pretty emotionally invested in the those too.
The Democrats appear to have learned, though. Every attempt to stir up some party division (which the US media, liberal or otherwise, absolutely loves to cover) just isn't working. I can't recall a time when one wing of the party wasn't having a go at the other, but that seems now to be the prevailing mood.
And they don't get wound up by Trump's bullshit. They're inoculated, and just laugh at him now.
The more I look at it, the smarter Walz is as the VP pick. He's no threat to the next generation - has specifically said that this is the culmination of his career, not a step on the way to the top job - and has been enthusiastically endorsed by everyone from Bernie and AOC to fucking Joe Manchin, who doesn't like anyone.
And they're defending a largely positive record in government.
But as has been noted, there's still three months to go.
There are a lot of people on this site who, like @TSE, are very emotionally attached to what happens in the States and more so than here, and you can see it in here with the commentary around the Harris-Walz ticket. In the spirit of presenting the other side of the argument, here are some points to consider before getting carried away:
1. It is August and early August at that. The US is not paying attention to November (more so this year when you have the Olympics). So trying to read signals into November now is tricky except when, in the rare cases as with Biden, you had a narrative that had been building up and established (i.e. he was too old for the job);
2. You might think the Administration is defending a largely positive record but what you think doesn't count. The US voter generally doesn't. And that is likely to get worse for Harris than better because...
3...the economic data in the States is overall getting worse. The unemployment stats were worse than expected and consumer confidence is being hit. More relevant, US companies in their Q2 results have struck a noticeably more gloomy view on the US consumer and expect this to go into 2025.
4. The scrutiny of Harris and Walz has not really started in terms of their track records. There is plenty of video material of Harris which will be gold dust on the campaign trail. And Walz is already facing questions about his handling of the George Floyd riots. At the end of the day, Harris and Walz - on recent track records - are progressives.
5. Harris may have picked Walz but there are strong indications that Shapiro deliberately exited himself from the VP pick, as Cooper did. You may want to reflect on why. One of the reasons being stated is they didn't want to tie themselves to a campaign they felt would fail and hurt their own chances (at least in the case of Shapiro). You might also reflect that given Shapiro's ambitions, why is he going to want Harris in the Presidency for potentially eight years when he is keen on a run in 2028 - that has implications for how much he helps the ticket in PA.
6. Trump may be struggling with rallies, funding etc. But one way to look at what he is doing is essentially being quiet, reframing his message at a time when Americans are not really listening and then hit hard come September onwards. Some of his lines against Harris have failed. You should be more worried he hasn't continued his flailing. The fact he has gone quiet suggests he is being more disciplined and listening to advice.
7. The election will ultimately come down to the economy. Trump has a clear advantage and probably more so now given Harris and Walz are seen on the left. The Fed is likely to cut rates but it may be seen as too late anyway.
This is wish-casting for Trump rather than assessing the situation objectively. Don't confuse what you want to happen (however fervently) with what's likely to happen.
OT while throwing away my books, I've come across Advocates by PB's favourite lawyer, David Pannick, before he became a lord. £15 hardback in 1992, shortly to start its slow journey to the council tip.
Don't throw away books, there'll always be someone interested in them. Support second-hand bookshops.
Sadly, there aren't. It's not just me, friends report charity bookshops were not even interested in signed copies. The old ecosystem where prolific readers used charity shops as a lending library are gone, as have the dedicated second hand bookshops of Bloomsbury and Charing Cross Road.
Most of my books are out-of-date tech books whose information is readily available online. The rest, well, it's possible I might get the odd nibble from Ebay but the hassle of listing them all, and then having to pack and post them when it's not a full-time hobby, is disproportionate.
But it is sad and frustrating, which is why it is taking so long as I stop to ponder each volume. I'm not a barrister so why buy Advocates more than 30 years ago? I can only assume Pannick had been on television or in the news around that time.
Been finding that too with clearing relatives' houses and doing the usual 60-something clearout post retirement. Certainly for ordinary charity shops, though the specialist charity bookshops in Edinburgh have been better (not much use to you). In the end we simply dumped our unwanted books to add to those in a deceased relative's house which we were getting a charity with a specialist furniture shop to clear - they have a specialist bookshop as well. That way we got the books cleared.
I don't know what it is. Booklovers dying off? Houses too small these days?
Same here. I once tried giving books away - literally leaving them outside my then-house for people to take what they want. Still had plenty left
About a year ago I resorted to actually dumping books in the paper recycling which felt so sad and wrong I moved to e-books. It was a great decision - they are so much more convenient. I love my Kindles - and all that weight from my luggage is gone. I now only buy physical books on the very rare occasions I read a book on Kindle which is so good I want the paper version
It’s happened once, this year. Zamoyski’s biography of Napoleon
I also sync my ebooks with Audible whenever possible, so I can keep “reading” even when driving round France, &c
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
I’ve had similar thoughts. He’s 78. Very nearly dying by gunfire must be incredibly traumatic, but the trauma might take time to emerge and affect you
Also: who the F tried to kill Trump and why?! Incredible how the sassytempt has been memory-holed. “Oh just some normal guy with no opinions who was never on the internet. Typical kids, tried to kill a President, often happens, move along”
lol. wtf. Etc. I still reckon it was the Ukes using some sexy girl to seduce a lonely young clean skinned man
How many mass shooting does the US have every year ? You're conspiracy theorising, again.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Its weird (to choose a word) and being noticed that his rallies have fizzled down to almost nothing, that in several states he doesn't have offices and that his advertising is much reduced. I am not one to criticise spending money on lawyers, we deserve your cash, but it does look as if there is comparatively little money left once that has been done.
"...spending money on lawyers, we deserve your cash, but it does look as if there is comparatively little money left once that has been done."
Isn't that always the case? ;-)
“ Very well indeed, sir,” returned Mr. Kenge, with a certain condescending laugh he had. “ Very well ! You are further to reflect, Mr. Woodcourt,” becoming dignified almost to Severity, ” that on the numerous difficulties, contingencies, masterly fictions, and forms of procedure in this great cause, there has been expended study, ability, eloquence, knowledge, intellect, Mr. Woodcourt, high intellect. For many years, the — a — I would say the flower of the Bar, and the — a — I would presume to add, the matured autumnal fruit of the Woolsack — have been lavished upon Jam- dyce and Jarndyce. If the public have the benefit, and if the country have the adornment, of this great Grasp, it must be paid for in money or money’s worth, sir.”
•“ Mr, Kengc,” said Allan, appearing enlightened all in a moment. ** Excuse me, our time presses. Do I understand that the whole estate is found to have been absorbed in costs ? ”
“ Hem ! I believe so,” returned Mr. Kenge. “ Mr. Vholes, what do you say ? ”
“ I believe so,” said Mr. Vholes.
“ And that thus the suit lapses and melts away ?
“ Probably,” returned Mr. Kenge. “ Mr. Vholes ? ”
“ Probably,” said Mr. Vholes.
One of the all time top ten novels.
I happened to be reading it, by complete coincidence, when dealing with the first and most difficult of several deceased relatives' estates I have administered. The discovery of the hourly rates charged, and an apparent attempt to get me to get them to do, for 5K, a service I could get done myself for about £100, were quite a revelation, as were the antiquated but still vital formulations on the probate paperwork (not all explained in the associated help notes).
OTOH paying the lawyer for the key advice and specialist stuff proved well worth it then and since, even if I saved the estate a lot on doing the grunt stuff with the various banks and collecting myriad small cheques at £0 per hour.
The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, met the bosses of Canada’s big retirement schemes in Toronto on Wednesday, prompting speculation that Labour is planning to bring the country’s public pension model to the UK.
Thames Water is a third owned by Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement Scheme.
Oh dear, how sad, never mind.
Reeves apeing Tory policy shocker!
It's getting difficult to tell if Tony's Tories stole all the conservative policies or Cameron's catamites all the Labour ones. Perhaps best summed up by George Orwell
The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
Actually that Orwellian quote works rather well for you and BJO. Who'd have thought.
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
Student loans have become complicated, so I may need help with this bit of the Guardian story:
Olivia took a lower paid job because her monthly payments were £350, ie £4200 pa. This £4200 would be 9% of earnings over the threshold (which can differ) say about £26000. £4200 is 9% of over £46,000 which added to the threshold is £72000 earnings.
Round here £72000 is a lot.
My sympathy is finite. Are my figures about correct?
(BTW the article never mentions that monthly payments relate only to earnings and not how much you have borrowed; and I am opposed to the loan system).
They're wrong because she's a Plan A student which means the threshold starts at £18k, if she was paying £350 per month then her annual salary was ~£65k which means she'd have paid off the loan pretty quickly. What doesn't make sense is that no one walks into a £65k job so she'd have been paying the loan off all the way up to that salary and by then she'd surely have got it down to well below £5k and at that point loads of people choose to go onto a direct debit or just use their savings to pay it off in full.
There's either more to this story than is being let on or the year of graduation is wrong and it's supposed to be 2017 not 2007.
Edit - different people, that person graduated on Plan D which sucks yeah, the Tories and Lib Dems really fucked it up.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
I’ve had similar thoughts. He’s 78. Very nearly dying by gunfire must be incredibly traumatic, but the trauma might take time to emerge and affect you
Also: who the F tried to kill Trump and why?! Incredible how the sassytempt has been memory-holed. “Oh just some normal guy with no opinions who was never on the internet. Typical kids, tried to kill a President, often happens, move along”
lol. wtf. Etc. I still reckon it was the Ukes using some sexy girl to seduce a lonely young clean skinned man
The playbook is much more Russian.
In the end Trump was not seriously hurt, but the shooter was killed "with an incredibly lucky shot".
Are you suggesting the whole thing was staged by Putin to help Trump?!
That’s how it reads, but I may be misconstruing you
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
What a loser.
And Daniel, from Norwich, who graduated with £55,000 of student debt, feels ‘any sort of relief for students repaying loans would be good’. Well of course it would. He would say that. Who would pay for it ?
I do think interest rates charged have been high and many people were duped into taking degrees as the prevailing govt wisdom was that the jobs of the future would need degrees hence the desire to get 50% of kids into Uni. However they need to live with their life choices.
Yet as of this morning Trump still leads Harris 287 to 251 in the RCP EC average with no toss up states. That is even with Harris now leading in all the upper Midwest states ie Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan Walz should have boosted her in https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
I’ve had similar thoughts. He’s 78. Very nearly dying by gunfire must be incredibly traumatic, but the trauma might take time to emerge and affect you
Also: who the F tried to kill Trump and why?! Incredible how the sassytempt has been memory-holed. “Oh just some normal guy with no opinions who was never on the internet. Typical kids, tried to kill a President, often happens, move along”
lol. wtf. Etc. I still reckon it was the Ukes using some sexy girl to seduce a lonely young clean skinned man
The playbook is much more Russian.
In the end Trump was not seriously hurt, but the shooter was killed "with an incredibly lucky shot".
Trump was incredibly incredibly lucky - if he had not moved his head in that specific direction and at that c. 1/4 of a second - he would have been dead.
Not sure about your comment that "the shooter was killed "with an incredibly lucky shot" - what Secret Service snipers are supposed to do, no?
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
Student loans have become complicated, so I may need help with this bit of the Guardian story:
Olivia took a lower paid job because her monthly payments were £350, ie £4200 pa. This £4200 would be 9% of earnings over the threshold (which can differ) say about £26000. £4200 is 9% of over £46,000 which added to the threshold is £72000 earnings.
Round here £72000 is a lot.
My sympathy is finite. Are my figures about correct?
(BTW the article never mentions that monthly payments relate only to earnings and not how much you have borrowed; and I am opposed to the loan system).
They're wrong because she's a Plan A student which means the threshold starts at £18k, if she was paying £350 per month then her annual salary was ~£65k which means she'd have paid off the loan pretty quickly. What doesn't make sense is that no one walks into a £65k job so she'd have been paying the loan off all the way up to that salary and by then she'd surely have got it down to well below £5k and at that point loads of people choose to go onto a direct debit or just use their savings to pay it off in full.
There's either more to this story than is being let on or the year of graduation is wrong and it's supposed to be 2017 not 2007.
Edit - different people, that person graduated on Plan D which sucks yeah, the Tories and Lib Dems really fucked it up.
Thanks. (One more mystery: the govt site mentions Plans 1,2,4,5 and Postgrad but not Plan A. Life is too short to comprehend this.)
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
Student loans have become complicated, so I may need help with this bit of the Guardian story:
Olivia took a lower paid job because her monthly payments were £350, ie £4200 pa. This £4200 would be 9% of earnings over the threshold (which can differ) say about £26000. £4200 is 9% of over £46,000 which added to the threshold is £72000 earnings.
Round here £72000 is a lot.
My sympathy is finite. Are my figures about correct?
(BTW the article never mentions that monthly payments relate only to earnings and not how much you have borrowed; and I am opposed to the loan system).
They're wrong because she's a Plan A student which means the threshold starts at £18k, if she was paying £350 per month then her annual salary was ~£65k which means she'd have paid off the loan pretty quickly. What doesn't make sense is that no one walks into a £65k job so she'd have been paying the loan off all the way up to that salary and by then she'd surely have got it down to well below £5k and at that point loads of people choose to go onto a direct debit or just use their savings to pay it off in full.
There's either more to this story than is being let on or the year of graduation is wrong and it's supposed to be 2017 not 2007.
Edit - different people, that person graduated on Plan D which sucks yeah, the Tories and Lib Dems really fucked it up.
Thanks. (One more mystery: the govt site mentions Plans 1,2,4,5 and Postgrad but not Plan A. Life is too short to comprehend this.)
The numbered plans used to be letters, Plan A is Plan 1 etc...
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Its weird (to choose a word) and being noticed that his rallies have fizzled down to almost nothing, that in several states he doesn't have offices and that his advertising is much reduced. I am not one to criticise spending money on lawyers, we deserve your cash, but it does look as if there is comparatively little money left once that has been done.
None of which was necessary as he could pay his own lawyers.
Being blunt I don't think Trump has the money he pretends to have..
And he definitely won't have any money if he was paying for those lawyers himself...
The civil new York case at the least revealed his business enterprises are a complete basketball even if he wins appeals about them.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Its weird (to choose a word) and being noticed that his rallies have fizzled down to almost nothing, that in several states he doesn't have offices and that his advertising is much reduced. I am not one to criticise spending money on lawyers, we deserve your cash, but it does look as if there is comparatively little money left once that has been done.
"...spending money on lawyers, we deserve your cash, but it does look as if there is comparatively little money left once that has been done."
Isn't that always the case? ;-)
“ Very well indeed, sir,” returned Mr. Kenge, with a certain condescending laugh he had. “ Very well ! You are further to reflect, Mr. Woodcourt,” becoming dignified almost to Severity, ” that on the numerous difficulties, contingencies, masterly fictions, and forms of procedure in this great cause, there has been expended study, ability, eloquence, knowledge, intellect, Mr. Woodcourt, high intellect. For many years, the — a — I would say the flower of the Bar, and the — a — I would presume to add, the matured autumnal fruit of the Woolsack — have been lavished upon Jam- dyce and Jarndyce. If the public have the benefit, and if the country have the adornment, of this great Grasp, it must be paid for in money or money’s worth, sir.”
•“ Mr, Kengc,” said Allan, appearing enlightened all in a moment. ** Excuse me, our time presses. Do I understand that the whole estate is found to have been absorbed in costs ? ”
“ Hem ! I believe so,” returned Mr. Kenge. “ Mr. Vholes, what do you say ? ”
“ I believe so,” said Mr. Vholes.
“ And that thus the suit lapses and melts away ?
“ Probably,” returned Mr. Kenge. “ Mr. Vholes ? ”
“ Probably,” said Mr. Vholes.
I recently reread Bleak House. It’s a brilliant novel.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Sounds unlikely to me, but as my previous trading left me green on Haley, I don't care that I don't know.
It is possible that small fluctuations on Betfair are caused by people cashing out to take their profits now rather than wait another fortnight or so. Many will have backed (or laid) more than one candidate, so Betfair will attempt to place cancelling bets even on losers.
Yet as of this morning Trump still leads Harris 287 to 251 in the RCP EC average with no toss up states. That is even with Harris now leading in all the upper Midwest states ie Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan Walz should have boosted her in https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
How many more times?
The RCP average bizarrely excludes some polls such as the ones with Harris +5 so is incorrectly skewing to Trump.
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
What a loser.
And Daniel, from Norwich, who graduated with £55,000 of student debt, feels ‘any sort of relief for students repaying loans would be good’. Well of course it would. He would say that. Who would pay for it ?
I do think interest rates charged have been high and many people were duped into taking degrees as the prevailing govt wisdom was that the jobs of the future would need degrees hence the desire to get 50% of kids into Uni. However they need to live with their life choices.
If it were up to me I'd abolish Student Loans (which are a tax in all but name now) and "repayments" altogether and merge it into income tax payable by absolutely everyone.
Its ridiculous that well off graduates with multiple homes who happen to be older like Blair, Cameron and Clegg who introduced these systems and made them worse don't pay a penny, while those who are starting their careers are on a 9% higher tax rate.
The down side is that would royally screwover those of my own generation (myself and the same as Max and others) who have both taken out and paid back our own "loans". But I don't see any way to avoid that while still fixing the mess.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
*Raises eyebrows*
Has Governor Walz's daughter taken up a new career?
You’re going to have to explain that one to me.
Suggesting the utterly charming Hope Walz has taken up the job of a hit man.
sending Starliner back unmanned is slightly embarrassing but rather less terminal then a manned Starliner failing to land...
What's interesting is that new suits need to be flown up if the plan is for Wilmore / Wilkins to become "part" of the SpaceX 9 crew because Boeing refused to use the connectors SpaceX use and offered free access to..
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
I actually think that Harris will do it as much because all the energy seems to have drained from DonOLD Trump...
Trump has been steadily declining since 2016.
Understandably so given the ageing and stress he has suffered.
Its only because US politics is so filled with senile dodderers that it hasn't been so noticeable.
Nikki Haley shortening to 65 on Betfair. Worth a small punt?
Quite surprised at this. I'm not touching it though as I don't understand what possible path she has to winning. (Interested if anyone has a good understanding of this)
Path:
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
I’ve had similar thoughts. He’s 78. Very nearly dying by gunfire must be incredibly traumatic, but the trauma might take time to emerge and affect you
Also: who the F tried to kill Trump and why?! Incredible how the sassytempt has been memory-holed. “Oh just some normal guy with no opinions who was never on the internet. Typical kids, tried to kill a President, often happens, move along”
lol. wtf. Etc. I still reckon it was the Ukes using some sexy girl to seduce a lonely young clean skinned man
The playbook is much more Russian.
In the end Trump was not seriously hurt, but the shooter was killed "with an incredibly lucky shot".
Alienated young man seeking to make himself big in the world. There's no great mystery here. Unfortunately him being killed and therefore beyond interrogation means there'll always be 'theories'. That's just how people are.
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
Student loans have become complicated, so I may need help with this bit of the Guardian story:
Olivia took a lower paid job because her monthly payments were £350, ie £4200 pa. This £4200 would be 9% of earnings over the threshold (which can differ) say about £26000. £4200 is 9% of over £46,000 which added to the threshold is £72000 earnings.
Round here £72000 is a lot.
My sympathy is finite. Are my figures about correct?
(BTW the article never mentions that monthly payments relate only to earnings and not how much you have borrowed; and I am opposed to the loan system).
They're wrong because she's a Plan A student which means the threshold starts at £18k, if she was paying £350 per month then her annual salary was ~£65k which means she'd have paid off the loan pretty quickly. What doesn't make sense is that no one walks into a £65k job so she'd have been paying the loan off all the way up to that salary and by then she'd surely have got it down to well below £5k and at that point loads of people choose to go onto a direct debit or just use their savings to pay it off in full.
There's either more to this story than is being let on or the year of graduation is wrong and it's supposed to be 2017 not 2007.
Edit - different people, that person graduated on Plan D which sucks yeah, the Tories and Lib Dems really fucked it up.
TBF, the Browne report it's based on was set up by Labour.
This was an absolutely epochal government cockup. Not any one particular party.
What they were all smoking at the time I have no idea.
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
She graduated when I did, her student debt will be minimal, not like the kids graduating today. I left with ~£15k in debt, today's graduates leave with ~£50k in debt. She's a moron, £15k takes no time at all to clear.
Where are all those Essex Girl jokes when you need them?
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
Student loans have become complicated, so I may need help with this bit of the Guardian story:
Olivia took a lower paid job because her monthly payments were £350, ie £4200 pa. This £4200 would be 9% of earnings over the threshold (which can differ) say about £26000. £4200 is 9% of over £46,000 which added to the threshold is £72000 earnings.
Round here £72000 is a lot.
My sympathy is finite. Are my figures about correct?
(BTW the article never mentions that monthly payments relate only to earnings and not how much you have borrowed; and I am opposed to the loan system).
They're wrong because she's a Plan A student which means the threshold starts at £18k, if she was paying £350 per month then her annual salary was ~£65k which means she'd have paid off the loan pretty quickly. What doesn't make sense is that no one walks into a £65k job so she'd have been paying the loan off all the way up to that salary and by then she'd surely have got it down to well below £5k and at that point loads of people choose to go onto a direct debit or just use their savings to pay it off in full.
There's either more to this story than is being let on or the year of graduation is wrong and it's supposed to be 2017 not 2007.
Edit - different people, that person graduated on Plan D which sucks yeah, the Tories and Lib Dems really fucked it up.
TBF, the Browne report it's based on was set up by Labour.
This was an absolutely epochal government cockup. Not any one particular party.
What they were all smoking at the time I have no idea.
I know exactly what they were doing.
They were looking at a way that increased taxes for young people (that don't vote) that didn't increase taxes for old people (who do vote) or themselves.
It was purely selfish and it was wrong and immoral.
OT while throwing away my books, I've come across Advocates by PB's favourite lawyer, David Pannick, before he became a lord. £15 hardback in 1992, shortly to start its slow journey to the council tip.
Why not cancer research?
Because in general charity shops are not interested in hundreds of second hand books any more.
If possible a good technique is to start early and do it slowly, as horses for courses is true for books, and in many areas there are many charity shops and one or two specialist local dealers and recycling for out of date/junk stuff. many will take a bag of books but don't want 2000 random volumes all at once.
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
Student loans have become complicated, so I may need help with this bit of the Guardian story:
Olivia took a lower paid job because her monthly payments were £350, ie £4200 pa. This £4200 would be 9% of earnings over the threshold (which can differ) say about £26000. £4200 is 9% of over £46,000 which added to the threshold is £72000 earnings.
Round here £72000 is a lot.
My sympathy is finite. Are my figures about correct?
(BTW the article never mentions that monthly payments relate only to earnings and not how much you have borrowed; and I am opposed to the loan system).
They're wrong because she's a Plan A student which means the threshold starts at £18k, if she was paying £350 per month then her annual salary was ~£65k which means she'd have paid off the loan pretty quickly. What doesn't make sense is that no one walks into a £65k job so she'd have been paying the loan off all the way up to that salary and by then she'd surely have got it down to well below £5k and at that point loads of people choose to go onto a direct debit or just use their savings to pay it off in full.
There's either more to this story than is being let on or the year of graduation is wrong and it's supposed to be 2017 not 2007.
Edit - different people, that person graduated on Plan D which sucks yeah, the Tories and Lib Dems really fucked it up.
TBF, the Browne report it's based on was set up by Labour.
This was an absolutely epochal government cockup. Not any one particular party.
What they were all smoking at the time I have no idea.
I know exactly what they were doing.
They were looking at a way that increased taxes for young people (that don't vote) that didn't increase taxes for old people (who do vote) or themselves.
It was purely selfish and it was wrong and immoral.
Well, yes, that may have been part of it and the last sentence isn't wrong which is why I've liked your post.
But - the whole point is that it didn't sort out university finance, and it's still going to leave the bulk of the expense on general taxation.
So, in a stroke of genius not given to all of us, they managed to screw the young *and* the old in one amazing burst of incompetence.
I’ve emotionally gone from being mentally and emotionally reconciled to a Trump win to having hope that Harris actually might do it. Sadly it’s the hope that kills you.
*Raises eyebrows*
Has Governor Walz's daughter taken up a new career?
You’re going to have to explain that one to me.
Suggesting the utterly charming Hope Walz has taken up the job of a hit man.
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
What a loser.
And Daniel, from Norwich, who graduated with £55,000 of student debt, feels ‘any sort of relief for students repaying loans would be good’. Well of course it would. He would say that. Who would pay for it ?
I do think interest rates charged have been high and many people were duped into taking degrees as the prevailing govt wisdom was that the jobs of the future would need degrees hence the desire to get 50% of kids into Uni. However they need to live with their life choices.
A recent social development I've observed: young thirty-ish couples, apparently bright and well educated, running bijou cafés in tourist towns. This always strikes me as being a sad waste of talent, all the more so if they're doing it to stay below the debt repayment threshold. Tourist cafés were traditionally operated by gnarled old misanthropes and I fear this is what lies in store for them, too.
OT while throwing away my books, I've come across Advocates by PB's favourite lawyer, David Pannick, before he became a lord. £15 hardback in 1992, shortly to start its slow journey to the council tip.
Why not cancer research?
Because in general charity shops are not interested in hundreds of second hand books any more.
If possible a good technique is to start early and do it slowly, as horses for courses is true for books, and in many areas there are many charity shops and one or two specialist local dealers and recycling for out of date/junk stuff. many will take a bag of books but don't want 2000 random volumes all at once.
If anyone lives near Dursley, there is a wheeze at the parish church where they take in second hand books and lay them out on Saturday mornings for passers by to help themselves. Donations welcome, but no actual charges. They can just pick them up and walk away with them if they like.
It makes the church something crazy like £7000 a year.
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
Student loans have become complicated, so I may need help with this bit of the Guardian story:
Olivia took a lower paid job because her monthly payments were £350, ie £4200 pa. This £4200 would be 9% of earnings over the threshold (which can differ) say about £26000. £4200 is 9% of over £46,000 which added to the threshold is £72000 earnings.
Round here £72000 is a lot.
My sympathy is finite. Are my figures about correct?
(BTW the article never mentions that monthly payments relate only to earnings and not how much you have borrowed; and I am opposed to the loan system).
They're wrong because she's a Plan A student which means the threshold starts at £18k, if she was paying £350 per month then her annual salary was ~£65k which means she'd have paid off the loan pretty quickly. What doesn't make sense is that no one walks into a £65k job so she'd have been paying the loan off all the way up to that salary and by then she'd surely have got it down to well below £5k and at that point loads of people choose to go onto a direct debit or just use their savings to pay it off in full.
There's either more to this story than is being let on or the year of graduation is wrong and it's supposed to be 2017 not 2007.
Edit - different people, that person graduated on Plan D which sucks yeah, the Tories and Lib Dems really fucked it up.
TBF, the Browne report it's based on was set up by Labour.
This was an absolutely epochal government cockup. Not any one particular party.
What they were all smoking at the time I have no idea.
I know exactly what they were doing.
They were looking at a way that increased taxes for young people (that don't vote) that didn't increase taxes for old people (who do vote) or themselves.
It was purely selfish and it was wrong and immoral.
Well, yes, that may have been part of it and the last sentence isn't wrong which is why I've liked your post.
But - the whole point is that it didn't sort out university finance, and it's still going to leave the bulk of the expense on general taxation.
So, in a stroke of genius not given to all of us, they managed to screw the young *and* the old in one amazing burst of incompetence.
No, you've missed a key point though. Stoking up problems for the future, adding to borrowing in the future etc, is still passing the bill over to the young.
They've managed to screw over the young and the future-old, who were younger when they introduced the system too.
And before someone retorts that the young should vote then if they didn't want to be screwed over, the young we're talking about can't vote by law since the people being screwed the most were all under-18 when this change was done so even the most politically aware wasn't able to vote.
Yet as of this morning Trump still leads Harris 287 to 251 in the RCP EC average with no toss up states. That is even with Harris now leading in all the upper Midwest states ie Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan Walz should have boosted her in https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
How many more times?
The RCP average bizarrely excludes some polls such as the ones with Harris +5 so is incorrectly skewing to Trump.
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
Student loans have become complicated, so I may need help with this bit of the Guardian story:
Olivia took a lower paid job because her monthly payments were £350, ie £4200 pa. This £4200 would be 9% of earnings over the threshold (which can differ) say about £26000. £4200 is 9% of over £46,000 which added to the threshold is £72000 earnings.
Round here £72000 is a lot.
My sympathy is finite. Are my figures about correct?
(BTW the article never mentions that monthly payments relate only to earnings and not how much you have borrowed; and I am opposed to the loan system).
They're wrong because she's a Plan A student which means the threshold starts at £18k, if she was paying £350 per month then her annual salary was ~£65k which means she'd have paid off the loan pretty quickly. What doesn't make sense is that no one walks into a £65k job so she'd have been paying the loan off all the way up to that salary and by then she'd surely have got it down to well below £5k and at that point loads of people choose to go onto a direct debit or just use their savings to pay it off in full.
There's either more to this story than is being let on or the year of graduation is wrong and it's supposed to be 2017 not 2007.
Edit - different people, that person graduated on Plan D which sucks yeah, the Tories and Lib Dems really fucked it up.
TBF, the Browne report it's based on was set up by Labour.
This was an absolutely epochal government cockup. Not any one particular party.
What they were all smoking at the time I have no idea.
I know exactly what they were doing.
They were looking at a way that increased taxes for young people (that don't vote) that didn't increase taxes for old people (who do vote) or themselves.
It was purely selfish and it was wrong and immoral.
Well, yes, that may have been part of it and the last sentence isn't wrong which is why I've liked your post.
But - the whole point is that it didn't sort out university finance, and it's still going to leave the bulk of the expense on general taxation.
So, in a stroke of genius not given to all of us, they managed to screw the young *and* the old in one amazing burst of incompetence.
No, you've missed a key point though. Stoking up problems for the future, adding to borrowing in the future etc, is still passing the bill over to the young.
They've managed to screw over the young and the future-old, who were younger when they introduced the system too.
And before someone retorts that the young should vote then if they didn't want to be screwed over, the young we're talking about can't vote by law since the people being screwed the most were all under-18 when this change was done so even the most politically aware wasn't able to vote.
The future has arrived after just twelve years though.*
As was brutally obvious to everyone in academia who had a functioning brain at the time.
So it didn't kick the can far enough.
*A case could be made it arrived after seven years, with Brexit, but that was a bit of a black swan event.
Lucy, from Shenfield, Essex – who was the first in her family to go to university, gaining a maths degree in 2007 – worked briefly in graduate roles as a transport planner and in private equity. But on an annual salary of £20,000, she felt her student debt was hanging over her. She moved back to her parents’ house and has been in part-time minimum-wage jobs since she was 25. For the past six years, she has been a taxi controller, earning £19,000 last year.
“My student debt makes me not want to earn more, as my equivalent rate of tax would be 38%,” she said. “I see not repaying my loan as an act of defiance.”
Student loans have become complicated, so I may need help with this bit of the Guardian story:
Olivia took a lower paid job because her monthly payments were £350, ie £4200 pa. This £4200 would be 9% of earnings over the threshold (which can differ) say about £26000. £4200 is 9% of over £46,000 which added to the threshold is £72000 earnings.
Round here £72000 is a lot.
My sympathy is finite. Are my figures about correct?
(BTW the article never mentions that monthly payments relate only to earnings and not how much you have borrowed; and I am opposed to the loan system).
They're wrong because she's a Plan A student which means the threshold starts at £18k, if she was paying £350 per month then her annual salary was ~£65k which means she'd have paid off the loan pretty quickly. What doesn't make sense is that no one walks into a £65k job so she'd have been paying the loan off all the way up to that salary and by then she'd surely have got it down to well below £5k and at that point loads of people choose to go onto a direct debit or just use their savings to pay it off in full.
There's either more to this story than is being let on or the year of graduation is wrong and it's supposed to be 2017 not 2007.
Edit - different people, that person graduated on Plan D which sucks yeah, the Tories and Lib Dems really fucked it up.
TBF, the Browne report it's based on was set up by Labour.
This was an absolutely epochal government cockup. Not any one particular party.
What they were all smoking at the time I have no idea.
I know exactly what they were doing.
They were looking at a way that increased taxes for young people (that don't vote) that didn't increase taxes for old people (who do vote) or themselves.
It was purely selfish and it was wrong and immoral.
Well, yes, that may have been part of it and the last sentence isn't wrong which is why I've liked your post.
But - the whole point is that it didn't sort out university finance, and it's still going to leave the bulk of the expense on general taxation.
So, in a stroke of genius not given to all of us, they managed to screw the young *and* the old in one amazing burst of incompetence.
No, you've missed a key point though. Stoking up problems for the future, adding to borrowing in the future etc, is still passing the bill over to the young.
They've managed to screw over the young and the future-old, who were younger when they introduced the system too.
And before someone retorts that the young should vote then if they didn't want to be screwed over, the young we're talking about can't vote by law since the people being screwed the most were all under-18 when this change was done so even the most politically aware wasn't able to vote.
The future has arrived after just twelve years though.*
As was brutally obvious to everyone in academia who had a functioning brain at the time.
So it didn't kick the can far enough.
*A case could be made it arrived after seven years, with Brexit, but that was a bit of a black swan event.
Which of Blair, Brown, Browne, Cameron or Clegg are still in Parliament needing to clean up this mess?
I disagree with the header. I don't think it's a 50/50 race anymore.
At the moment, it's between a narrow win and a big win.
I think I am still scarred by 2016.
I realised over the weekend I am more emotionally invested in the 2024 US Presidential election than I have ever been in any UK general election or Brexit referendum/Scottish independence referendum and I was pretty emotionally invested in the those too.
Me too. There has never been a starker Light v Dark binary in any election. To say Nov 5th is 'important' is understatement of the century. Like you I have to fight giving Trump too big a chance for 'emotional hedge' reasons.
Comments
Maybe one of the Gaza bros.
She’s going to win. Trump is all over the place trying anti-Biden lines on Harris, and Vance looks a bit sad, like the guy who slept with a girl thinking he’d genuinely scored, but in the morning she’s asking for money
Chris LaCivita, the Swiftboater Coming for Biden With co-pilot Susie Wiles, he has brought discipline to the Trump campaign. Is that enough to win?
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-campaign-chris-lacivita-swift-boat-veteran.html
Tried to run the same old play on Walz, yesterday.
Failed.
The horrible murders of the girls in the dance class that was the actual trigger could have happened at any time. But I'm not sure there would have been the same orchestration by far right actors that gave momentum to the riots.
And you can guarantee that the person who asks you to do things will deny all knowledge later so even the dishonest ones need to record and document everything to protect their arses.
And he definitely won't have any money if he was paying for those lawyers himself...
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-drop-out-race-anthony-scaramucci-1932977
Interestingly, they are upgrading the electricity supply cables to the houses on this 1960s built estate where I live, fo make sure there is enough capacity to and fro for heating, EVs, solar panels etc. The contractors puzzled us - they started by digging neat holes in the pavement every few dozen yards and then refilling them, without any apparent work done on the utilities therein exposed. When we inquired of the chap who came round to discuss the side branch installation to our place, he explained that they were simply checking the lay of the cables before doing the actual work, to minimise the final digging.
Although if she's in her parents house she's probably not getting Universal Credit so doesn't have taper to worry about as many low earners do which is the real killer.
Trump thinks he's going to lose.
So does a deal with Haley - she gets nomination, he gets presidential pardon
Trump pulls out, blames shooting wound
Vance being told not to accept the nomination might be part of the deal.
Harris has made a strong start and is in a honeymoon period, but that probably won't last until November. The US economy is slowing - probably not disastrously, but it is - and Trump's team are working out their attack lines through a process of trial and error. And if there was an election today, it is quite likely Trump would win even if he narrowly lost the popular vote.
He's plainly in a MUCH weaker position than before Biden stood down, and we've moved on a long way from the rather unwise but somewhat understandable triumphalism of the GOP Convention - but Trump still has a loyal base, a lot of fight, and a good chance of winning.
1. It is August and early August at that. The US is not paying attention to November (more so this year when you have the Olympics). So trying to read signals into November now is tricky except when, in the rare cases as with Biden, you had a narrative that had been building up and established (i.e. he was too old for the job);
2. You might think the Administration is defending a largely positive record but what you think doesn't count. The US voter generally doesn't. And that is likely to get worse for Harris than better because...
3...the economic data in the States is overall getting worse. The unemployment stats were worse than expected and consumer confidence is being hit. More relevant, US companies in their Q2 results have struck a noticeably more gloomy view on the US consumer and expect this to go into 2025.
4. The scrutiny of Harris and Walz has not really started in terms of their track records. There is plenty of video material of Harris which will be gold dust on the campaign trail. And Walz is already facing questions about his handling of the George Floyd riots. At the end of the day, Harris and Walz - on recent track records - are progressives.
5. Harris may have picked Walz but there are strong indications that Shapiro deliberately exited himself from the VP pick, as Cooper did. You may want to reflect on why. One of the reasons being stated is they didn't want to tie themselves to a campaign they felt would fail and hurt their own chances (at least in the case of Shapiro). You might also reflect that given Shapiro's ambitions, why is he going to want Harris in the Presidency for potentially eight years when he is keen on a run in 2028 - that has implications for how much he helps the ticket in PA.
6. Trump may be struggling with rallies, funding etc. But one way to look at what he is doing is essentially being quiet, reframing his message at a time when Americans are not really listening and then hit hard come September onwards. Some of his lines against Harris have failed. You should be more worried he hasn't continued his flailing. The fact he has gone quiet suggests he is being more disciplined and listening to advice.
7. The election will ultimately come down to the economy. Trump has a clear advantage and probably more so now given Harris and Walz are seen on the left. The Fed is likely to cut rates but it may be seen as too late anyway.
I like the contrast being set up. I've said a few times that one of the most off-putting things about Trump/MAGA isn't their policies it's the relentlessly snide, mean-spirited vibe they emit. It's not a general election winning message.
60/40 Harris is my assessment atm.
Harris gaining should also see his DJT grift collapse in value before he can cash out, fingers crossed!
Just have to hope that Deutsche and/or Credit Suisse / an other "top level financial institution" haven't advanced billions of their clients' funds to him based on the value of his DJT shares.
Also: who the F tried to kill Trump and why?! Incredible how the sassytempt has been memory-holed. “Oh just some normal guy with no opinions who was never on the internet. Typical kids, tried to
kill a President, often happens, move along”
lol. wtf. Etc. I still reckon it was the Ukes using some sexy girl to seduce a lonely young clean skinned man
https://youtu.be/22AUL33hvaQ?si=PPhC3UEvLFnluiKm
With Trump out of politics it could all fade away.
The new tunnel is due to be fully commissioned and utilised by next year. If that doesn't solve the problem (at least in London) then there will be some very, very, red faces.
* Technically, bigger than one side of the Elizabeth line, as it's one tunnel not two. After all, we don't want the sewage to make a return journey.
(Not that I think you're wrong, whichever it is, but there is quite a difference.)
They just a normal family having fun on a Daddy-Daughter Day.
It’s so refreshing to have a normal politician!
Its already been confirmed that the shooter was discussing politics online, yet you still persist with this myth that he was not.
And yes its far too normal for shootings to occur in America. They occur almost every day.
Close to half of the Presidents of America have been shot at.
Most of my books are out-of-date tech books whose information is readily available online. The rest, well, it's possible I might get the odd nibble from Ebay but the hassle of listing them all, and then having to pack and post them when it's not a full-time hobby, is disproportionate.
But it is sad and frustrating, which is why it is taking so long as I stop to ponder each volume. I'm not a barrister so why buy Advocates more than 30 years ago? I can only assume Pannick had been on television or in the news around that time.
In the end Trump was not seriously hurt, but the shooter was killed "with an incredibly lucky shot".
Not sure about your comment that "the shooter was killed "with an incredibly lucky shot" - what Secret Service snipers are supposed to do, no?
That’s how it reads, but I may be misconstruing you
I don't know what it is. Booklovers dying off? Houses too small these days?
But obsolete editions of tech books can go into the recycling bin (not tip) without any compunction.
Olivia took a lower paid job because her monthly payments were £350, ie £4200 pa. This £4200 would be 9% of earnings over the threshold (which can differ) say about £26000. £4200 is 9% of over £46,000 which added to the threshold is £72000 earnings.
Round here £72000 is a lot.
My sympathy is finite. Are my figures about correct?
(BTW the article never mentions that monthly payments relate only to earnings and not how much you have borrowed; and I am opposed to the loan system).
They may give you only a few quid but it's better than nothing and easy all you do is scan, put in a box and wait for them to be collected.
Dates and Deadlines
Here are voter dates and deadlines for the 2024 general election in North Carolina:
Sept. 6, 2024: County boards of elections begin mailing absentee ballots to eligible voters who submitted an absentee ballot request form.
About a year ago I resorted to actually dumping books in the paper recycling which felt so sad and wrong I moved to e-books. It was a great decision - they are so much more convenient. I love my Kindles - and all that weight from my luggage is gone. I now only buy physical books on the very rare occasions I read a book on Kindle which is so good I want the paper version
It’s happened once, this year. Zamoyski’s biography of Napoleon
I also sync my ebooks with Audible whenever possible, so I can keep “reading” even when driving round France, &c
You're conspiracy theorising, again.
OTOH paying the lawyer for the key advice and specialist stuff proved well worth it then and since, even if I saved the estate a lot on doing the grunt stuff with the various banks and collecting myriad small cheques at £0 per hour.
There's either more to this story than is being let on or the year of graduation is wrong and it's supposed to be 2017 not 2007.
Edit - different people, that person graduated on Plan D which sucks yeah, the Tories and Lib Dems really fucked it up.
And Daniel, from Norwich, who graduated with £55,000 of student debt, feels ‘any sort of relief for students repaying loans would be good’. Well of course it would. He would say that. Who would pay for it ?
I do think interest rates charged have been high and many people were duped into taking degrees as the prevailing govt wisdom was that the jobs of the future would need degrees hence the desire to get 50% of kids into Uni. However they need to live with their life choices.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
https://time.com/7003617/trump-ear-injury-shooting-details/
The RCP average bizarrely excludes some polls such as the ones with Harris +5 so is incorrectly skewing to Trump.
Its ridiculous that well off graduates with multiple homes who happen to be older like Blair, Cameron and Clegg who introduced these systems and made them worse don't pay a penny, while those who are starting their careers are on a 9% higher tax rate.
The down side is that would royally screwover those of my own generation (myself and the same as Max and others) who have both taken out and paid back our own "loans". But I don't see any way to avoid that while still fixing the mess.
sending Starliner back unmanned is slightly embarrassing but rather less terminal then a manned Starliner failing to land...
What's interesting is that new suits need to be flown up if the plan is for Wilmore / Wilkins to become "part" of the SpaceX 9 crew because Boeing refused to use the connectors SpaceX use and offered free access to..
This was an absolutely epochal government cockup. Not any one particular party.
What they were all smoking at the time I have no idea.
They were looking at a way that increased taxes for young people (that don't vote) that didn't increase taxes for old people (who do vote) or themselves.
It was purely selfish and it was wrong and immoral.
But - the whole point is that it didn't sort out university finance, and it's still going to leave the bulk of the expense on general taxation.
So, in a stroke of genius not given to all of us, they managed to screw the young *and* the old in one amazing burst of incompetence.
Get over it.
It makes the church something crazy like £7000 a year.
They've managed to screw over the young and the future-old, who were younger when they introduced the system too.
And before someone retorts that the young should vote then if they didn't want to be screwed over, the young we're talking about can't vote by law since the people being screwed the most were all under-18 when this change was done so even the most politically aware wasn't able to vote.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
In 2016 though it had Hillary narrowly ahead 272 to 266 for Trump so it does not really lean GOP
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
As was brutally obvious to everyone in academia who had a functioning brain at the time.
So it didn't kick the can far enough.
*A case could be made it arrived after seven years, with Brexit, but that was a bit of a black swan event.
It kicked the can far enough for their careers.
Harris narrow 30%
Harris easy 30%
Trump narrow 30%
Trump easy 10%
That is the breakdown of my 60/40.