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Understanding the rise of Kamala Harris – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited August 2024
    Brompton said:

    Calamity for market sentiment
    I've got 25 years till retirement, my remortgage window opens in a month's time :D

    Can bear the paper hit on my pension for now.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,165
    Sandpit said:

    Either he’s being a comedian and trying to be ironic, or he’s seriously taking the piss. He comes across as thinking that because he came up from nothing his kids shouldn’t be subject to inheritance tax, but someone else who had a good start in life but also made money should be. Well Mr Skinner, your kids are going to start life with a nice house and likely aspire to send their kids to the private school, they’ll grow up to be just like those you now despise.

    It would be heading towards Peak Guardian if it had been in that newspaper rather than the Telegraph, but as we learned yesterday which way that newspaper is heading… https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/activity-and-adventure/uk-best-wild-swimming-spots/
    Thanks for link - going for a wild swim this afternoon once the avocado toast has settled
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860

    You are comparing 12 years (Obama and Biden) against 4 (Trump). You also ignore that Russia's military was rebuilding its capabilities from its decline in the 1990s and 2000s, and had learned hard lessons from Ukraine 2014. They were not ready to launch an invasion before 2021 or 2022.

    In fact, thankfully events show they were not ready in 2022, either.
    Thankfully Boris Johnson was PM so someone was able to push back against Biden’s defeatism.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247
    Eabhal said:

    Thanks for link - going for a wild swim this afternoon once the avocado toast has settled
    Did you put pre-flaked parmesan on the avocado toast?
  • Brompton said:

    Calamity for market sentiment
    Nasdaq futures. (pre market) just dropped another 200 points. Down 483 now which is an awful lot for a pre trading market.

    Who on earth buys the things on these shadow markets at a time like this?

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,339

    The Russian Federation expanded under Obama and Biden but not under Trump.
    Disengaging the USA from NATO, as far as I am aware, didn't happen during Trump's last
    ride out.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,952
    theProle said:

    Whilst that's a bit sad for them, surely it's only a different application of the genetic lottery which means I (like 99.99% of the planet's population) have little chance of competing at the Olympics in anything. Which is a bit sad for me, but I'm realistic enough not to wander around shouting "that's not fair" about it.
    You may have noticed that it's not them wandering around shouting "that's not fair". Intersex athletes have tended to cut a demure and occasionally sad public figure while athletes around them regularly shout noisily that it's not fair. It's extremely hard to find anyone showing even a modicum of empathy with them.

    I do think it is very sad that someone who might be a world class athlete may end up with no meaningful forum in which to compete. And they are finding themselves, by dint of an accident of birth, thrown into a nasty trans debate that should have nothing to do with them.

    The Paralympics is an option, but then you'd get the usual suspects complaining about that too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860

    Disengaging the USA from NATO, as far as I am aware, didn't happen during Trump's last
    ride out.
    When he correctly warned Germany, it was characterised as disengagement from NATO.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,165

    Did you put pre-flaked parmesan on the avocado toast?
    I'm not Leon
  • Nasdaq futures. (pre market) just dropped another 200 points. Down 483 now which is an awful lot for a pre trading market.

    Who on earth buys the things on these shadow markets at a time like this?

    Oh Dear, Jim Cramer has just said this:

    "Nasdaq futures dropping as if it's the end of the world; memo to all: it isn't"

    https://x.com/jimcramer/status/1819305269651779774

    BRACE, BRACE!

  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    .

    Moderation of online disinformation generally works very well to reduce the spread of disinformation. This is not giving up the social media field to the scum: it is taking back the social media filed from the scum.
    I hope you are joking....government moderation of anything about speech leads to censorship...we do it then saudi will demand the right and russia...and iran and the GOP in america. It will cause more issues than it solves.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,339

    When he correctly warned Germany, it was characterised as disengagement from NATO.
    "Characterised" is doing all the work there.

    I get confused. Are you shilling for Trump, or for Putin?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247
    Pagan2 said:

    I hope you are joking....government moderation of anything about speech leads to censorship...we do it then saudi will demand the right and russia...and iran and the GOP in america. It will cause more issues than it solves.
    China will demand it first.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,735

    I recall PB at the time. Someone who knew the incident had nothing to do with Islam nonetheless kept posting to claim Muslims are problematic.

    We wouldn't have to "calm down the bollocks" if social media weren't amplifying the bollocks and if people weren't rushing to agree with the bollocks.

    Musk has neutered Twitter moderation, e.g. cutting staff ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-07/elon-musk-cuts-more-twitter-staff-overseeing-content-moderation ), and there's been a big increase in far right, extremist content ( https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/did-the-musk-takeover-boost-contentious-actors-on-twitter/ https://www.isdglobal.org/digital_dispatches/understanding-antisemitism-on-twitter-after-musk/ ). And we know Twitter in particular was central to the disinformation in this case.
    Twitter has instituted other changes to their algorithm that have greatly increased the spread of disinformation: see https://dfrlab.org/2023/04/21/state-controlled-media-experience-sudden-twitter-gains-after-unannounced-platform-policy-change/

    Multiple Russian, Chinese, and Iranian state media outlets on Twitter simultaneously began to gain followers after months of decline or stagnation, the DFRLab has discovered. A DFRLab assessment suggests that Twitter changed its algorithms regarding these accounts around March 29, 2023. NPR confirmed on April 21 that Twitter had made the deliberate decision to stop filtering government accounts in Russia, China, and Iran.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Andy_JS said:

    This is from October 2022.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/43941-britons-are-becoming-more-positive-towards-nuclear

    "Net support for nuclear energy is up 21 points since summer 2021

    New YouGov tracker data reveals that Britons are increasingly supportive of nuclear energy, even though perceptions of its safety remain unchanged.

    From late 2019 to summer 2021, Britons were divided on using nuclear power. Around four in ten over that time period supported doing so, while a similar number opposed it.

    Since then, support has been on the rise. Almost half (48%) of Britons now back the use of nuclear energy, compared to 31% who are opposed."
    Which is why the UK government should have put in the order for the first half a dozen Rolls Royce SMRs.

    The American technology candidate is already on hold thanks to a lack of orders, which now likely means the whole industry will end up with the Chinese.
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 147
    theProle said:

    Whilst that's a bit sad for them, surely it's only a different application of the genetic lottery which means I (like 99.99% of the planet's population) have little chance of competing at the Olympics in anything. Which is a bit sad for me, but I'm realistic enough not to wander around shouting "that's not fair" about it.
    Yes. In these ultra-rare cases of intersex, biological ambiguity, dubious uncategorisable chromosome defects etc. the default thinking should be:

    'sorry, but it's not fair for these unusual people to be competing in women's sport'

    rather than

    'hooray, let's exploit this freakish biological anomaly by competing in women's sport!!!11'
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,735
    Pagan2 said:

    I hope you are joking....government moderation of anything about speech leads to censorship...we do it then saudi will demand the right and russia...and iran and the GOP in america. It will cause more issues than it solves.
    I'm asking social media companies to moderate themselves.

    Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran and the GOP in the US do what they want anyway (but I like your grouping! a new axis of evil?).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Bhwani Shankar
    @BhwaniShankar1
    The market is now pricing in a a 69% chance that Jerome Powell and the 🇺🇸 Fed cut rates by 50 BASIS POINTS in September - CME FedWatch Tool

    Andrew Bailey will be smiling today.
  • Sandpit said:

    Which is why the UK government should have put in the order for the first half a dozen Rolls Royce SMRs.

    The American technology candidate is already on hold thanks to a lack of orders, which now likely means the whole industry will end up with the Chinese.
    Three Mile Island ending up in China is why Americans worry about nuclear power stations.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Nasdaq futures. (pre market) just dropped another 200 points. Down 483 now which is an awful lot for a pre trading market.

    Who on earth buys the things on these shadow markets at a time like this?

    Have you ever worked with day traders? They’re basically making spread bets on where the market will open. It’s going to be down, the question is just how much down as all of the overnight trades settle.
  • Sandpit said:

    If you set IHT at 10% with no exceptions, it would probably raise more money.

    The only losers would be tax advisors, wealth managers, and lawyers. Always good to see the lawyers lose out.
    Tsk, that’s the politics of envy.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    kjh said:

    Any events we win golds in, is a sport. If not, it isn't.
    We just won a Gold in Womens' lightweight double sculls, and the IOC have decreed it is no longer a sport...
  • Scott_xP said:

    We just won a Gold in Womens' lightweight double sculls, and the IOC have decreed it is no longer a sport...
    Winning the bouncy castle brings us to a pleasingly symmetric 8 golds; 8 silvers; 8 bronzes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Scott_xP said:

    Oh...

    @axios
    SCOOP: Trump didn't want to be fact-checked live at NABJ and was refusing to go on stage — a stalemate so prolonged that NABJ president Ken Lemon was prepping a statement to explain why Trump wouldn't show.

    As Lemon was prepping it, Trump walked on stage.

    https://x.com/axios/status/1819341448484901353

    Apart from the bit about the prepping of a statement that was reported at the time as the reason for the delayed start, so it's a half scoop at best.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    stodge said:

    Boris Johnson moved explicitly to take powers from Westminster and hand them to Ministers and Whitehall - key powers of scrutiny and accountability were signed away in the name of "good governance". I'll cheerfully concede I see no sign of Starmer seeking to repatriate those powers.

    You were one of those who argued rightly for the supremacy of Parliament and the repatriation of powers from Brussels after we left the EU but we can't simply take those powers and hand them over from the legislature to the executive.

    Promises of devolution to local councils and mayors came to little and have even frustrated such dangerous socialists such as Tim Oliver, leader of Surrey County Council.
    Party manifestos always talk in vague terms about giving power to localities. It rarely amounts to much, and is so vestigial in the documents I don't know why they bother (actually I think this time mostly really did not).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited August 2024

    Tsk, that’s the politics of envy.
    Not envy, just a willingness to eliminate unnecessary parasites from the affairs of the average man or woman.

    Taxes should be simple, easy to collect, and mostly collected.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,795
    Scott_xP said:

    Oh...

    @axios
    SCOOP: Trump didn't want to be fact-checked live at NABJ and was refusing to go on stage — a stalemate so prolonged that NABJ president Ken Lemon was prepping a statement to explain why Trump wouldn't show.

    As Lemon was prepping it, Trump walked on stage.

    https://x.com/axios/status/1819341448484901353

    That was on Twitter at the time, so not exactly a scoop.
    It was pretty obvious that Trump's insults about the audio equipment causing the delay were just his usual bullshit.

    Everyone knows by now that he can't open his mouth without lying. His supporters are conditioned to accept and justify the lies.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399

    Twitter has instituted other changes to their algorithm that have greatly increased the spread of disinformation: see https://dfrlab.org/2023/04/21/state-controlled-media-experience-sudden-twitter-gains-after-unannounced-platform-policy-change/

    Multiple Russian, Chinese, and Iranian state media outlets on Twitter simultaneously began to gain followers after months of decline or stagnation, the DFRLab has discovered. A DFRLab assessment suggests that Twitter changed its algorithms regarding these accounts around March 29, 2023. NPR confirmed on April 21 that Twitter had made the deliberate decision to stop filtering government accounts in Russia, China, and Iran.
    I'd love to know the full details of the investors who gave Musk money to buy Twitter, their nationalities and what agreements he came to in order to get the money.

    In fact, I think that information is vital. Is it public?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    I'm asking social media companies to moderate themselves.

    Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran and the GOP in the US do what they want anyway (but I like your grouping! a new axis of evil?).
    Ah you mean like facebook did by removing any reference to lab leaks for covid...now I am not convinced either way but it wasn't helpful . Facebook cant tell truth from fiction anymore than anyone else. You want to fight the crap on social media then post truth and fight it all that happens if you try to stop it being posted is more people believe its true but censored
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    China will demand it first.
    And as long as we don't do it we have the moral authority to tell china go suck a lemon...if we do the same however
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I'm asking social media companies to moderate themselves.

    Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran and the GOP in the US do what they want anyway (but I like your grouping! a new axis of evil?).
    Unfortunately the social media companies have a very poor record of moderating themselves, preferring to censor content based on ideology rather than correctness.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited August 2024
    Scott_xP said:

    We just won a Gold in Womens' lightweight double sculls, and the IOC have decreed it is no longer a sport...
    Hello, apostrophe police?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    US unemployment rate up from 4.1% to 4.3%, highest level since Oct ‘21.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/02/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-stock-sell-off-interest-rates/

    This has a horrible September 2008 vibe.
  • Sandpit said:

    Unfortunately the social media companies have a very poor record of moderating themselves, preferring to censor content based on ideology rather than correctness.
    Recently I was called by a headhunter offering me a job at Meta in London.

    They like hiring people from Sheffield.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    Sandpit said:

    Unfortunately the social media companies have a very poor record of moderating themselves, preferring to censor content based on ideology rather than correctness.
    LOL. I know you're fine with what Musky Baby's doing with Twitter, but that's really not the case. It's what he *claims*, but as ever, remember that Musk will lie whenever possible.

    Besides, should censorship be done on 'correctness'? If so, half of PB's posts would be censored, including mine. IMO censorship should be done against the laws of the land, which is an issue with media that is international.
  • Sandpit said:

    US unemployment rate up from 4.1% to 4.3%, highest level since Oct ‘21.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/02/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-stock-sell-off-interest-rates/

    This has a horrible September 2008 vibe.

    So the Dems are going to win the presidential election?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited August 2024
    Sandpit said:

    US unemployment rate up from 4.1% to 4.3%, highest level since Oct ‘21.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/02/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-stock-sell-off-interest-rates/

    This has a horrible September 2008 vibe.

    End of mortgage March 31st, 2025. Fingers crossed !

    Will have to avoid looking at my pension pot for a while though :D

    UK 10 yr at 3.848, 5 yr at 3.615
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808
    Sandpit said:

    Unfortunately the social media companies have a very poor record of moderating themselves, preferring to censor content based on ideology rather than correctness.
    Apart from anything who do you trust to determine whats true....example

    Country A does something x

    People find out thing x happened....Country A denies x happened

    Social media company has no way of verifying if x happened or not and even if it did was country A responsible for x or not

    Now what should social media company do

    1) delete all posts saying x happened
    2) delete all posts saying x happened and its the fault of country a
    3) let posts stand about x happening even though its disputed but delete all posts tying x happening to country A
    4) throw up their hands and say we dont actually know the posts might be true or might not but we dont actually know for sure

    I would rather stick with 4) as the lesser evil personally
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    So the Dems are going to win the presidential election?
    So the incumbent is likely to lose?

    As has happened everywhere else this year, except for possibly Venezuela.
  • Hedge funds are wise, they are nearly as brilliant as lawyers, heed their words. AI is the new AOL Time Warner.

    Elliott says Nvidia is in a ‘bubble’ and AI is ‘overhyped’

    Hedge fund tells clients many supposed applications of the technology are ‘never going to actually work’


    Hedge fund Elliott Management has told investors that Nvidia is in a “bubble”, and the artificial intelligence technology driving the chipmaking giant’s share price is “overhyped”.

    The Florida-based firm, which manages about $70bn in assets, said in a recent letter to clients that the megacap technology stocks, particularly Nvidia, were in “bubble land” and it was “sceptical” that Big Tech companies would keep buying the chipmaker’s graphics processing units in such high volumes.

    AI is “overhyped with many applications not ready for prime time”, Elliott wrote in the letter sent this week and seen by the Financial Times.

    Many of AI’s supposed uses are “never going to be cost efficient, are never going to actually work right, will take up too much energy, or will prove to be untrustworthy”, it added.

    Elliott declined to comment.

    Its warning comes as chip stocks, which have enjoyed a huge rally driven by investor fervour over the potential for generative AI, take a tumble on concerns about whether big companies will continue to spend heavily on AI. Intel shares fell 20 per cent following the US market close on Thursday after the chipmaker revealed plans to cut about 15,000 jobs.


    https://www.ft.com/content/24a12be1-a973-4efe-ab4f-b981aee0cd0b
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    Sandpit said:

    US unemployment rate up from 4.1% to 4.3%, highest level since Oct ‘21.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/02/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-stock-sell-off-interest-rates/

    This has a horrible September 2008 vibe.

    Not quite yet, US unemployment was 7% in October 2008 which certainly didn't help McCain-Palin
  • Pulpstar said:

    End of mortgage March 31st, 2025. Fingers crossed !

    Will have to avoid looking at my pension pot for a while though :D
    My plan is to retire in 2033 when I hit 55, this could complicate things.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,795
    I didn't notice Caleb Carr died; RIP.

    A big-tent, bridge-building idea for @JDVance:

    There's a little club of book writers who share the birthday of August 2. Source of inspiration: James Baldwin, born 100 years ago today. We noted the very sad loss of Caleb Carr (b. Aug 2, 1955) this summer.

    JDV has written a book. And turns 40 today. Check it out, Senator!

    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1819353588574925124
  • Sandpit said:

    So the incumbent is likely to lose?

    As has happened everywhere else this year, except for possibly Venezuela.
    Technically the incumbent didn’t lose as he was ineligible to stand.

    A non white Dem won.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,795
    $10M cash withdrawal drove secret probe into whether Trump took money from Egypt
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2024/08/02/trump-campaign-egypt-investigation/

    Whether.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    Sandpit said:

    So the incumbent is likely to lose?

    As has happened everywhere else this year, except for possibly Venezuela.
    Modi was re elected in India, albeit he lost his BJP majority.

    Macron's party still has the PM in France in a hung parliament too
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,339
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    Modi was re elected in India, albeit he lost his BJP majority.

    Macron's party still has the PM in France in a hung parliament too
    Don't forget RefCon smashed Labour out of the park.*

    * I am being impish!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922
    Nigelb said:

    That was on Twitter at the time, so not exactly a scoop.
    It was pretty obvious that Trump's insults about the audio equipment causing the delay were just his usual bullshit.

    Everyone knows by now that he can't open his mouth without lying. His supporters are conditioned to accept and justify the lies.
    His core supporters, I suppose. It would be interesting to see some polling along the lines of "If your favoured candidate tells a demonstrable lie, would you still pretend s/he was telling the truth?"
  • A lawyer who was stabbed while trying to stop the attacker in Southport is recovering in hospital.

    John Hayes, the managing director of Calculus Cost Legal, heard screams from his office next door and attempted to intervene and disarm the teenage assailant.

    The costs lawyer’s wife told The Telegraph that he was stabbed in the leg after running to the dance studio where children were at a Taylor Swift-themed dance and yoga class, and put himself between the attacker and the children.

    “Our office is in the same building as the dance studio, he heard screams and went outside, saw the attacker, saw that he had hurt a child and tried to take the knife off him and got stabbed in the leg”, she said.

    “I’ve been with him all afternoon at the hospital. He’s very upset that he wasn’t able to be more help. Physically he will be OK, mentally I don’t know.”


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/costs-lawyer-stabbed-intervening-southport-tragedy
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    edited August 2024

    What Frank Skinner does show is why IHT is (and was in 2009/10) a dangerous area for Labour. People simply do not understand it.

    Skinner says: I shouldn’t be in the same section as the Rees-Mogg children.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/08/01/frank-skinner-labour-inheritance-tax-threats-rachel-reeves/ (£££)

    Well, he wouldn't be, and isn't. Frank is in the same position as Jacob Rees-Mogg. The Skinner children are in the same position as the Rees-Mogg children.
    Rees Mogg's maternal grandfather was at one point a lorry driver and car salesman, his wife is posher than he is.

    Rees Mogg acts uber posh but has some working class blood and in the early 19th century the Revd John Rees Mogg was a vicar not a wealthy merchant (albeit with a big Rectory)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cholwell,_Cameley
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Sandpit said:

    That’s very cool. I’d never have put cricket up there with long-distance running, as an event in which high-level women can compete with club-level men.
    At club level, fencing is similar. Which surprised me when I started fencing. I don't know if it's still the same, but it was reasonably common for competitions to have mixed categories.

    But then speed, distance control, and precision are extremely important in most fencing disciplines; anyone who tries going for strength is in for a painful awakening.

    That thought did give me some consolation when being beaten up at sabre by a little old lady.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Nigelb said:

    I didn't notice Caleb Carr died; RIP.

    A big-tent, bridge-building idea for @JDVance:

    There's a little club of book writers who share the birthday of August 2. Source of inspiration: James Baldwin, born 100 years ago today. We noted the very sad loss of Caleb Carr (b. Aug 2, 1955) this summer.

    JDV has written a book. And turns 40 today. Check it out, Senator!

    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1819353588574925124

    Available free as an audiobook:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Hillbilly-Elegy-Memoir-Family-Culture/dp/B01LT8O96W/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116

    ...

    Don't forget RefCon smashed Labour out of the park.*

    * I am being impish!
    Though even then only Con were incumbents
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,795
    Why didn't the Fed meet next Monday rather than this Wednesday ?
    Seems perverse.

    This jobs report is bad news for the Fed: Worries that they're behind the curve are really going to skyrocket.
    - 4.3% unemployment
    - slowing employment gains (114K)
    - slowing wage growth (0.2%/3.6% yearly)

    https://x.com/jeannasmialek/status/1819350579954565424
  • kle4 said:

    Party manifestos always talk in vague terms about giving power to localities. It rarely amounts to much, and is so vestigial in the documents I don't know why they bother (actually I think this time mostly really did not).
    The Osborne devolution stuff is a big deal, whether manchester the Tees or in the midlands. Big potential engines of growth. The risk is rolling it out everywhere when many local authorities just dont have the skills to absorb new powers.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,681
    HYUFD said:

    Rees Mogg's maternal grandfather was at one point a lorry driver and car salesman, his wife is posher than he is.

    Rees Mogg acts uber posh but has some working class blood and in the early 19th century the Revd John Rees Mogg was a vicar not a wealthy merchant (albeit with a big Rectory)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cholwell,_Cameley
    Yes but the vicarage would only be accommodation with the job.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    edited August 2024

    If Labour go for property with wealth value taxes and inheritance taxes they could get absolutely creamed at the next election by Jenrick.

    Brits fucking hate it if you touch their houses.
    Yes, even in Wandsworth and Kensington, Chelsea, Fulham and Hampstead (all with Labour MPs now) if Labour imposed big wealth taxes and increased inheritance tax you would get many property owners and their kids telling their left liberal friends they were voting Labour or Green at dinner parties but in private they would vote Tory in the privacy of the ballot box (unless the Tory leader was Priti Patel in which case they would likely go LD).

    Seats Labour won across the South and East and in wealthy bits of the Midlands, Wales and North and Cheshire like Rushcliffe, Monmouth and Macclesfield would also swing back blue
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    Sandpit said:

    US unemployment rate up from 4.1% to 4.3%, highest level since Oct ‘21.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/02/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-stock-sell-off-interest-rates/

    This has a horrible September 2008 vibe.

    Mrs Stodge and I were in Las Vegas in October 2008, staying in the Palazzo as it happens and I have a distinct memory of the DJIA hitting 8500. I remember saying to Mrs Stodge "if I could open a spread betting account and buy the DJIA at $100 a point, I'll be a rich man in 20 years". 31,000 points at $100 per point - yeah.

    Needed to be brave, the DJIA nearly went below 7000 in early 2009....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The Osborne devolution stuff is a big deal, whether manchester the Tees or in the midlands. Big potential engines of growth. The risk is rolling it out everywhere when many local authorities just dont have the skills to absorb new powers.
    There needs to be much more devolution, and the people need to pay more attention to who is being elected to local offices.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,339
    HYUFD said:

    Though even then only Con were incumbents
    Fake News. 20% of Refuk MPs were Government MPs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,795

    Hedge funds are wise, they are nearly as brilliant as lawyers, heed their words. AI is the new AOL Time Warner.

    Elliott says Nvidia is in a ‘bubble’ and AI is ‘overhyped’

    Hedge fund tells clients many supposed applications of the technology are ‘never going to actually work’


    Hedge fund Elliott Management has told investors that Nvidia is in a “bubble”, and the artificial intelligence technology driving the chipmaking giant’s share price is “overhyped”.

    The Florida-based firm, which manages about $70bn in assets, said in a recent letter to clients that the megacap technology stocks, particularly Nvidia, were in “bubble land” and it was “sceptical” that Big Tech companies would keep buying the chipmaker’s graphics processing units in such high volumes.

    AI is “overhyped with many applications not ready for prime time”, Elliott wrote in the letter sent this week and seen by the Financial Times.

    Many of AI’s supposed uses are “never going to be cost efficient, are never going to actually work right, will take up too much energy, or will prove to be untrustworthy”, it added.

    Elliott declined to comment.

    Its warning comes as chip stocks, which have enjoyed a huge rally driven by investor fervour over the potential for generative AI, take a tumble on concerns about whether big companies will continue to spend heavily on AI. Intel shares fell 20 per cent following the US market close on Thursday after the chipmaker revealed plans to cut about 15,000 jobs.


    https://www.ft.com/content/24a12be1-a973-4efe-ab4f-b981aee0cd0b

    AI is the new Dotcom.
    It's a bubble that will probably burst quite soon; but it will also very likely transform the word economy over time.

    China is probably now grateful that US sanctions prevented them from forking out many billions of dollars on bleeding edge chips, which will probably drop in price by an order of magnitude within the next couple of years.

    Intel's woes are something of a separate issue. And they are probably a buy at somewhere around current levels; replicating their fab assets would probably cost at least a couple of times what the stockmarket says they're currently worth.

    Our government should put in a bid.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    If Labour go for property with wealth value taxes and inheritance taxes they could get absolutely creamed at the next election by Jenrick.

    Brits fucking hate it if you touch their houses.
    The problem is a large percentage of people don't own a house.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,795
    Sandpit said:

    Available free as an audiobook:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Hillbilly-Elegy-Memoir-Family-Culture/dp/B01LT8O96W/
    I tend not to read much fiction these days.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,795
    Nigelb said:

    $10M cash withdrawal drove secret probe into whether Trump took money from Egypt
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2024/08/02/trump-campaign-egypt-investigation/

    "Whether".

    Barr, of course, shut the investigation down.
    https://x.com/CarolLeonnig/status/1819315673102770329
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,339
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, even in Wandsworth and Kensington, Chelsea, Fulham and Hampstead (all with Labour MPs now) if Labour imposed big wealth taxes and increased inheritance tax you would get many property owners and their kids telling their left liberal friends they were voting Labour or Green at dinner parties but in private they would vote Tory in the privacy of the ballot box (unless the Tory leader was Priti Patel in which case they would likely go LD).

    Seats Labour won across the South and East and in wealthy bits of the Midlands and North and Cheshire like Rushcliffe and Macclesfield would also swing back blue
    If, and it's a big if, the economy is bangin' and public services are running like clockwork Labour might retain the BlueWall and get a second term.

    Although I do admire your optimism.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Andy_JS said:

    The problem is a large percentage of people don't own a house.
    But if you annoy all those who do, you’re totally screwed electorally.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247

    A lawyer who was stabbed while trying to stop the attacker in Southport is recovering in hospital.

    John Hayes, the managing director of Calculus Cost Legal, heard screams from his office next door and attempted to intervene and disarm the teenage assailant.

    The costs lawyer’s wife told The Telegraph that he was stabbed in the leg after running to the dance studio where children were at a Taylor Swift-themed dance and yoga class, and put himself between the attacker and the children.

    “Our office is in the same building as the dance studio, he heard screams and went outside, saw the attacker, saw that he had hurt a child and tried to take the knife off him and got stabbed in the leg”, she said.

    “I’ve been with him all afternoon at the hospital. He’s very upset that he wasn’t able to be more help. Physically he will be OK, mentally I don’t know.”


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/costs-lawyer-stabbed-intervening-southport-tragedy

    Possible George Medal?

    Bernard Carter-Kenny comes to mind
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    edited August 2024

    If, and it's a big if, the economy is bangin' and public services are running like clockwork Labour might retain the BlueWall and get a second term.

    Although I do admire your optimism.
    Most of the wealthy property owners in London and the Home counties do not work in the public sector and their biggest asset by far is their house, which their kids want to inherit too.

    Ask Theresa May how coming after voters houses went for her with swing voters in 2017?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Most of the wealthy property owners in London and the Home counties do not work in the public sector and their biggest asset by far is their house, which their kids want to inherit too.

    Ask Theresa May how coming after voters houses went for her with swing voters in 2017?
    Oh, so Thatcher-sold council houses don't count?
  • Nigelb said:

    AI is the new Dotcom.
    It's a bubble that will probably burst quite soon; but it will also very likely transform the word economy over time.

    China is probably now grateful that US sanctions prevented them from forking out many billions of dollars on bleeding edge chips, which will probably drop in price by an order of magnitude within the next couple of years.

    Intel's woes are something of a separate issue. And they are probably a buy at somewhere around current levels; replicating their fab assets would probably cost at least a couple of times what the stockmarket says they're currently worth.

    Our government should put in a bid.
    Intel's woes are not due to AI or even missing the whole GPU boom but because their latest chips are reported to be slow and crash-prone. The problem with AI is it's very clever but how do the big tech firms monetise it? I can now ask ChatGPT questions via Bing and maybe even replace my human clickbait writers but Microsoft is not getting rich off that.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 1,004
    Sandpit said:

    But if you annoy all those who do, you’re totally screwed electorally.
    Would the owner of the house pay the charge rather than the tenant? I accept that the rent would include the cost to the landlord but would help stop landlords keeping properties empty.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,397
    The biggest winners from Labour upsetting the middle classes are likely to be the Liberals and the Greens - not the Tories…
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,542
    edited August 2024
    kjh said:

    Any events we win golds in, is a sport. If not, it isn't.
    There you see. Show jumping. A proper sport :blush:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Possible George Medal?

    Bernard Carter-Kenny comes to mind
    Definitely sounds worthy of a formal recognition, if that account can be co-oberated.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,317

    And it’s not being used by Harold Finch.

    It being used by people of moral calibre of Post Office management.
    Rather sadly, I didn't have to look that reference up. It was science fiction then. It's a Silicon Valley IPO now. :(
  • Robert Jenrick leadership bid launch downstreamed live at 3pm
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDV7RsYj1b4
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Robert Jenrick leadership bid launch downstreamed live at 3pm
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDV7RsYj1b4

    Spread bet on the number of live viewers?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    viewcode said:

    Rather sadly, I didn't have to look that reference up. It was science fiction then. It's a Silicon Valley IPO now. :(
    Nah, current AI capabilities are nowhere near that of the Machine or Samaritan. The hypers try to make it seem as though it is, but it is not.

    In fact, I'd argue the current systems in no way show 'intelligence'.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,735

    I'd love to know the full details of the investors who gave Musk money to buy Twitter, their nationalities and what agreements he came to in order to get the money.

    In fact, I think that information is vital. Is it public?
    I don't know if we have full details, but it was reported at the time to include "Oracle Corporation co-founder Larry Ellison, Saudi prince Al Waleed bin Talal Al Saud, venture capital firms Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital, as well as sovereign wealth fund Qatar Holding."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Juror swears oath on river in legal first"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c25l5zldgv9o
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    GB third in the medal table. :)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    kjh said:

    There you see. Show jumping. A proper sport :blush:
    Sitting down...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151

    GB third in the medal table. :)

    GB above France in the medal table... :)
  • Sandpit said:

    Definitely sounds worthy of a formal recognition, if that account can be co-oberated.
    It is one thing to hand out gongs to lawyers but what about the window cleaner who also jumped the killer? Surely below the salt.
    https://news.sky.com/video/man-describes-coming-face-to-face-with-southport-knife-attacker-13187561
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    Andy_JS said:

    "Juror swears oath on river in legal first"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c25l5zldgv9o

    Was he saying he was full of shit?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,542
    Scott_xP said:

    Sitting down...
    If we can't have sitting down ones we are pretty much stuffed. All our best stuff - Rowing, sailing (ish), cycling, horse riding
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247

    Nah, current AI capabilities are nowhere near that of the Machine or Samaritan. The hypers try to make it seem as though it is, but it is not.

    In fact, I'd argue the current systems in no way show 'intelligence'.
    We have the data feeds.

    Combine that with biometric recognition (face, gait) and you will have a somewhat crapulent 24/7 surveillance of everyone. At least in terms of location.
  • Scott_xP said:

    GB above France in the medal table... :)
    Is that true in France? Do the French order the table by number of golds, as we do, or by total medals like the Americans?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,735
    Pagan2 said:

    Ah you mean like facebook did by removing any reference to lab leaks for covid...now I am not convinced either way but it wasn't helpful . Facebook cant tell truth from fiction anymore than anyone else. You want to fight the crap on social media then post truth and fight it all that happens if you try to stop it being posted is more people believe its true but censored
    The evidence suggests that if you stop it being posted, people don't see it and no-one believes it. The idea that "more believe its true but censored" is a nice story that anti-censorship people tell themselves, but I don't see the evidence that it's true.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,542

    Is that true in France? Do the French order the table by number of golds, as we do, or by total medals like the Americans?
    Always number of Golds, unless we have less Golds and more medals, then it is the other way around.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,397
    edited August 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    "Juror swears oath on river in legal first"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c25l5zldgv9o

    Good for him. There’s no reason why swearing on what sounds like a form of low Animism is any more or less silly than swearing on the concept a personal saviour.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    The evidence suggests that if you stop it being posted, people don't see it and no-one believes it. The idea that "more believe its true but censored" is a nice story that anti-censorship people tell themselves, but I don't see the evidence that it's true.
    points at QAnon
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    .

    The evidence suggests that if you stop it being posted, people don't see it and no-one believes it. The idea that "more believe its true but censored" is a nice story that anti-censorship people tell themselves, but I don't see the evidence that it's true.
    ipsos custodes quis custodiet?

    If your censors are all 20-somethings from California, don’t be surprised if there’s something of a bias to their censorship.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151

    Is that true in France?
    Who cares ? :)
This discussion has been closed.