Another potential crossover is looming – politicalbetting.com

System · August 1

Another potential crossover is looming – politicalbetting.com

Kamala Harris is about to make the most important choice of her campaign: Who should be her running mate? Nation writers make their cases for the strongest vice-presidential candidate.https://t.co/Z89Cjh7DzT

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles · August 1

'Feeling sicker than a cyclist with piles' is the content I visit PB for.

Foxy · August 1

Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.

SeaShantyIrish2 · August 1

FPT - Let's all hope that "John Smith" is NOT the liquid equivalent of "Soylent Green"?

That is, brewed from the well-fermented remains of former Labour Party Leaders!

"Soylent Green Is People!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2aH9tu4s30

TheScreamingEagles · August 1

Foxy said:
Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.

He'd also make a better Veep than J.D. Vance.

ydoethur · August 1

TheScreamingEagles said:

Foxy said:
Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.
He'd also make a better Veep than J.D. Vance.

That is a bar so low even a limbo dancing mouse anxious to escape the tabby candidate wouldn't get under it.

MisterBedfordshire · August 1

Pagan2 said:

HYUFD said:

Pagan2 said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.

Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.

Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.

Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).

The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.

Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.

Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.

Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.

I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.

Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!

All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.

In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
Thatcher in 1979 won as she offered right wing red meat and the Labour government was unpopular and failing on the economy and got over 40% of the vote and a clear majority. Cameron offered 'hug a hoodie', as green and centrist and socially liberal an agenda as you can get in 2010 and still failed to get over 40% or a majority.

If the right is reunited with the aim of getting rid of Labour and a Labour government unpopular at the next general election anything can happen.

Elections are not always won by liberal centrists, even Starmer got just 33% last month, 7% less than Corbyn got in 2017 and just 1% more than Corbyn got in 2019. There was hardly a surge of enthusiasm for Starmer centrism, it was the divide on the right that gave him a landslide!
As a right winger can I just say I don't want anything to do with the tory party, you are a bunch of cupids as mr everett used to say. I would love your party to die
Yes well as you haven't voted Tory since 2010 anyway, we can probably manage without you.

You sound like the type of voter who now swings between Reform and the English Democrats, has a Tommy Robinson poster in his bedroom and wouldn't touch any of the main parties with a bargepole!
No I am the type of voter that has now withdrawn my mandate and regards the state and all its institutions in total contempt....we are the only demographic growing so think about that

In the days when I had chickens and you didn't have to register them with Defra, a Libdem friend contacted me to advise me that Defra were advertising in their area for people to register their birds voluntarily due to Bird Flu and had I registered mine?

My response that what Defra don't have to know they are not going to know was met with total incomprehension. He saw such agents of the state as benign helpers building society.

Alas they are long dead now, the last one aged nine shortly before Defra imposed a six month lockdown on the poor creatures.

Now registration is compulsory even if you only have one and the poor creatures have to be locked down for months every winter.

Nigelb · August 1

I see Biden made my point, too.

Reporter: Trump said he could have gotten the hostages out without giving anything in exchange. What do you say to that?

Biden: Why didn't he do it when he was president?
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1819048370671071495

Nigelb · August 1

Nigelb said:
I see Biden made my point, too.

Reporter: Trump said he could have gotten the hostages out without giving anything in exchange. What do you say to that?

Biden: Why didn't he do it when he was president?
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1819048370671071495

BTW, when is Leon being let back, to tell us that he's senile to the point of incapacity ?

HYUFD · August 1

RCP poll average has Trump still ahead but by just 0.3% on 44.1% with Harris on 43.8% and Kennedy on 5.9%, Stein on 0.9% and West on 0.8%.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

After the convention and her VP pick Harris will likely take the lead but I would expect it to narrow again and be neck and neck by the end of September. Trump's sentencing will also be a factor as will US interest rates and inflation and the level of border crossings from Mexico over the next few months

kyf_100 · August 1

Foxy said:
Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.

He's a chonky boy. 10/10 would pet.

On topic, I think Mayor Pete stands head and shoulders above the other potential candidates in terms of his intellect and ability to handle the media, but I don't think he'll get it, on account of his sexuality. Suspect Kamala will go for the Ming Vase strategy and pick someone like Mark Kelly. All American, astronaut, hard to dislike the guy. Hawkish on migration, so will bring something to the ticket.

HYUFD · August 1

RCP poll average has Trump still ahead but by just 0.3% on 44.1% with Harris on 43.8% and Kennedy on 5.9%, Stein on 0.9% and West on 0.8%.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

After the convention and her VP pick Harris will likely take the lead but I would expect it to narrow again and be neck and neck by the end of September. Trump's sentencing will also be a factor as will US interest rates and inflation and the level of border crossings from Mexico over the next few months

ydoethur · August 1

Nigelb said:

Nigelb said:
I see Biden made my point, too.

Reporter: Trump said he could have gotten the hostages out without giving anything in exchange. What do you say to that?

Biden: Why didn't he do it when he was president?
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1819048370671071495
BTW, when is Leon being let back, to tell us that he's senile to the point of incapacity ?

Biden or Leon?

Stuartinromford · August 1

Nigelb said:

Nigelb said:
I see Biden made my point, too.

Reporter: Trump said he could have gotten the hostages out without giving anything in exchange. What do you say to that?

Biden: Why didn't he do it when he was president?
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1819048370671071495
BTW, when is Leon being let back, to tell us that he's senile to the point of incapacity ?

Leon incapable?

I mean, I don't agree with him a lot of the time, but that's harsh.

SeaShantyIrish2 · August 1

kyf_100 said:

Foxy said:
Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.
He's a chonky boy. 10/10 would pet.

On topic, I think Mayor Pete stands head and shoulders above the other potential candidates in terms of his intellect and ability to handle the media, but I don't think he'll get it, on account of his sexuality. Suspect Kamala will go for the Ming Vase strategy and pick someone like Mark Kelly. All American, astronaut, hard to dislike the guy. Hawkish on migration, so will bring something to the ticket.

Personally think that issue with PB for VP, is less his sexual identity, and more about fact he's ANOTHER Biden Administration insider.

One is plenty enough for 2024 Democratic ticket, methinks!

SeaShantyIrish2 · August 1

Nigelb said:

Nigelb said:
I see Biden made my point, too.

Reporter: Trump said he could have gotten the hostages out without giving anything in exchange. What do you say to that?

Biden: Why didn't he do it when he was president?
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1819048370671071495
BTW, when is Leon being let back, to tell us that he's senile to the point of incapacity ?

Strongly doubt that "Leon" would ever say something like that about himself!

Roger · August 1

J. Shapiro.

numbertwelve · August 1

The fascinating thing about this is Harris still has her VP pick and the convention to come.

There are always pitfalls for any candidate with the VP pick but it’s very hard to see given who is in the running that they could go down worse than Vance.

She’s showing much more confidence in her speaking now too and seems to have picked up some good speechwriters; so it’s hard to see her flubbing the convention moment.

That probably takes her momentum through to September. What’s the next event then? The debate - if Trump doesn’t back out and generate more negative headlines for doing so. If she continues to deal with him as competently as she is now it’s hard to see her messing up a debate with him. Then we’re into the home straight - but by that point it’s entirely possible she’s put some clear blue water between them.

It’s still close. But the direction of movement is all towards the Democrats right now, and there’s no scheduled “events” between now and September that feel like they’ll shift the momentum back. Harris remains value while her odds are behind Trump’s.

Luckyguy1983 · August 1

Fpt:

Fishing said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

eek said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Taz said:

stodge said:

Taz said:

stodge said:

Taz said:

rottenborough said:
Seriously? Jenrick is now favourite?

If they think Jenrick is the answer then god help the party.

I'll retire to Bedlam.
He could surprise on the upside.

I am not a Tory, never voted Tory in a GE, only once in a local election, therefore I hold no torch for them and have little knowledge of Jenrick apart from his rather hapless time as a Minister.
Well, it just goes to show you should never judge a book by its cover.

I had you pegged as a diehard Conservative.

If you're one of the "I don't like any of them" brigade. fine, but what would you support or for what would you vote positively rather than negatively?
"pegged" !!!!!

Why would you have me down as a Tory, just as a matter of interest ?

I did post here that I was not going to vote, but in the end, and I said I would, I voted for Luke Akehurst our Labour candidate. I do not loathe Reform supporters like some people on this board, I live among many of them, but I didn't want to risk a Reform MP here and their economic policies were crackers. I'm socially liberal and fiscally more conservative so I like Rachel Reeves and the cut of her jib. I also don't think she has done anything wrong so far. I like the likes our Haigh, Cooper, Phillipson and Streeting too.

The Tories were just to utterly incompetent at the end. They needed putting out of their misery. SKS and co deserve a chance. Another 5 years of the preceding 5 years would be unbearable.

The only time I ever voted Tory was for a local councillor who was excellent and did alot for the ward. I saw that more as an endorsement of him personally than his party.
Pegged - as in a square one going into a round hole it would seem.

You've posted about as often as I have but as I drop in and out on here I don't read every post. I just had the sense you were often defending the Conservatives and being critical of Labour so I made the assumption which I shouldn't have done.

In truth, you aren't a million miles away from me and I'm happy to give the new Government a fair crack of the whip for all some on here seem to think the IMF will be here in four years. I'd only disagree the Conservatives didn't need putting out of their misery, they needed putting out of our misery.

I find Reform a paradox as I've said on here before - the anti-immigration line is all that holds them together. Farage and Tice are unreconstructed Thatcherites who want tax cuts especially for the wealthy while the Reform membership and voters are more nuanced - some still cling to the Johnsonian levelling up agenda, others simply want more spending and investment in WWC areas.
I suspect from the reform voters I know here they are social conservatives but want alot more spending here. Many went for Bojo due to the promise of levelling up. Our areas have been neglected and ignored for long enough. My hope is the local mayor here will make a difference. A reform MP probably won’t .

I think in places like this Reform could be a threat to labour in five years so they will need to do something for the area.
I think they just want solutions. High streets to stop being wastelands full of empty shops. That's not due to lack of spending, that's due to pension funds and their overvalued property portfolios.
Reform voters want a return to a past that is no longer possible - shops can only exist if there is appropriate spare cash to keep them going and in an awful lot of reform voting areas that cash doesn't exist.

We went to Redcar last night because the weather was decent. When you walk along the sea front and see that another few shops have closed it does get rather depression.
I'm not sure whose spare cash you mean, but I don't think I agree. It is natural for landlords to want to rent their properties to avoid paying to maintain them without an income. That should mean there is never a signficant amount of empty high street stock - rents should fall to meet demand. That's what has always happened in the past. Neighbourhoods have gone up and down, with posh shops replaced by more lowly shops, but there hasn't been a ghost town effect. This isn't happening now afaics because we have a big issue with pension funds being balls deep in commercial property and not wanting to accept that their assets are worth tens of millions less than they say they are. So they hang on to vastly unrealistic rents and nobody bites.
Yes retail shops are definitely yesterday's technology in most cases. We need to speed up the end of the high street, by making it much easier for shops to be converted back to residences. Of course the Luddites will protest for a while, and invoke lots of sentimental drivel to hold back progress, but hopefully they will be ignored.

I disagree, and that isn't the implication of what I am saying. What I'm saying is that physical retail in towns can very much thrive if the free market is allowed to operate in the high street property market, rather than large owners of commercial property bed-blocking it because they don't want to admit their portfolios are not worth what they say they are.

There is a big issue in this country with pension funds becoming massive blockers of progress. That's partly because Governments forced them away from investing in a more varied portfolio - once again, the state fucking up the economy. Rachel Reeves is right that these funds need to vary their portfolios and invest in 'economic growth' - the trouble is that to make 'economic growth' worth a damn, you have to create the conditions for it, and Labour don't just not know how, they don't want to know how.

Carnyx · August 1

kyf_100 said:

Foxy said:
Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.
He's a chonky boy. 10/10 would pet.

On topic, I think Mayor Pete stands head and shoulders above the other potential candidates in terms of his intellect and ability to handle the media, but I don't think he'll get it, on account of his sexuality. Suspect Kamala will go for the Ming Vase strategy and pick someone like Mark Kelly. All American, astronaut, hard to dislike the guy. Hawkish on migration, so will bring something to the ticket.

She's a full-figured lady, actually. Not sure I would put my hands anywhere near her without permission.

"Kamala Harris should go full cat lady and choose my darling Patsy. We’re always hearing that the vice presidency is trivial and boring and hasn’t won a state since LBJ won Texas for JFK. Patsy would be perfect. Close to 50 percent of American households own at least one cat—that’s a huge voting bloc entirely neglected until now."

https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/kamala-harris-vice-president-veepstakes/

Nigelb · August 1

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Nigelb said:
I see Biden made my point, too.

Reporter: Trump said he could have gotten the hostages out without giving anything in exchange. What do you say to that?

Biden: Why didn't he do it when he was president?
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1819048370671071495
BTW, when is Leon being let back, to tell us that he's senile to the point of incapacity ?
Biden or Leon?

Yes.

Theuniondivvie · August 1

I think Trump's a roller rather than a changer.

Anti-Psychopath PAC
@PsychoPAC24
In the words of one of Trump’s biggest apologists, Donald “crapped the bed” yesterday. The only question is whether he’ll “change the sheets” or “roll around in it.” Here’s an ad for you, Donald. Kamala is laughing at you—just like we all are.

https://x.com/PsychoPAC24/status/1819060485578223851

Pagan2 · August 1

Carnyx said:

kyf_100 said:

Foxy said:
Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.
He's a chonky boy. 10/10 would pet.

On topic, I think Mayor Pete stands head and shoulders above the other potential candidates in terms of his intellect and ability to handle the media, but I don't think he'll get it, on account of his sexuality. Suspect Kamala will go for the Ming Vase strategy and pick someone like Mark Kelly. All American, astronaut, hard to dislike the guy. Hawkish on migration, so will bring something to the ticket.
She's a full-figured lady, actually. Not sure I would put my hands anywhere near her without permission.

"Kamala Harris should go full cat lady and choose my darling Patsy. We’re always hearing that the vice presidency is trivial and boring and hasn’t won a state since LBJ won Texas for JFK. Patsy would be perfect. Close to 50 percent of American households own at least one cat—that’s a huge voting bloc entirely neglected until now."

https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/kamala-harris-vice-president-veepstakes/

She could go all roman emporor and make her cat vp

Foxy · August 1

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Foxy said:
Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.
He's a chonky boy. 10/10 would pet.

On topic, I think Mayor Pete stands head and shoulders above the other potential candidates in terms of his intellect and ability to handle the media, but I don't think he'll get it, on account of his sexuality. Suspect Kamala will go for the Ming Vase strategy and pick someone like Mark Kelly. All American, astronaut, hard to dislike the guy. Hawkish on migration, so will bring something to the ticket.
Personally think that issue with PB for VP, is less his sexual identity, and more about fact he's ANOTHER Biden Administration insider.

One is plenty enough for 2024 Democratic ticket, methinks!

Yes, a very valid reason to go for a governor rather than someone from within the belt way.

kyf_100 · August 1

Carnyx said:

kyf_100 said:

Foxy said:
Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.
He's a chonky boy. 10/10 would pet.

On topic, I think Mayor Pete stands head and shoulders above the other potential candidates in terms of his intellect and ability to handle the media, but I don't think he'll get it, on account of his sexuality. Suspect Kamala will go for the Ming Vase strategy and pick someone like Mark Kelly. All American, astronaut, hard to dislike the guy. Hawkish on migration, so will bring something to the ticket.
She's a full-figured lady, actually. Not sure I would put my hands anywhere near her without permission.

"Kamala Harris should go full cat lady and choose my darling Patsy. We’re always hearing that the vice presidency is trivial and boring and hasn’t won a state since LBJ won Texas for JFK. Patsy would be perfect. Close to 50 percent of American households own at least one cat—that’s a huge voting bloc entirely neglected until now."

https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/kamala-harris-vice-president-veepstakes/

Whoops! Hope Patsy will find it in her heart to forgive me for misgendering her. Wouldn't want to wake up with a mouse's head in my bed!

Nigelb · August 1

TheScreamingEagles said:
'Feeling sicker than a cyclist with piles' is the content I visit PB for.

In keeping with the tone of the header.

“He did crap the bed today. The only question is whether he’s gonna roll around in it or get up and change the sheets.”
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1818854202753355873

(Edit -gazumped.)

Nigelb · August 1

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Foxy said:
Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.
He's a chonky boy. 10/10 would pet.

On topic, I think Mayor Pete stands head and shoulders above the other potential candidates in terms of his intellect and ability to handle the media, but I don't think he'll get it, on account of his sexuality. Suspect Kamala will go for the Ming Vase strategy and pick someone like Mark Kelly. All American, astronaut, hard to dislike the guy. Hawkish on migration, so will bring something to the ticket.
Personally think that issue with PB for VP, is less his sexual identity, and more about fact he's ANOTHER Biden Administration insider.

One is plenty enough for 2024 Democratic ticket, methinks!

I don't think it matters.

Which is not to say that the VP choice is unimportant - rather that all those on the shortlist, including Buttigieg, are pretty good choices.

When was the last time that could be said about the Democrats ?

TheScreamingEagles · August 1

FPT, I said this is your must read article about the Evan Gershkovich release

This is the closer

The Russian Federation had a few final items of protocol to tick through with the man who had become its most famous prisoner. One, he would be allowed to leave with the papers he’d penned in detention, the letters he’d scrawled out and the makings of a book he’d labored over. But first, they had another piece of writing they required from him, an official request for presidential clemency. The text, moreover, should be addressed to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.

The pro forma printout included a long blank space the prison could fill out if desired, or simply, as expected, leave blank. In the formal high Russian he had honed over 16 months imprisonment, the Journal’s Russia correspondent filled the page.

The last line submitted a proposal of his own: After his release, would Putin be willing to sit down for an interview?

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/evan-gershkovich-prisoner-exchange-ccb39ad3?st=811qp8le7r8uf5b&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

MarqueeMark · August 1

HYUFD said:
RCP poll average has Trump still ahead but by just 0.3% on 44.1% with Harris on 43.8% and Kennedy on 5.9%, Stein on 0.9% and West on 0.8%.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

After the convention and her VP pick Harris will likely take the lead but I would expect it to narrow again and be neck and neck by the end of September. Trump's sentencing will also be a factor as will US interest rates and inflation and the level of border crossings from Mexico over the next few months

Ignore the average. Take the latest polls.

SeaShantyIrish2 · August 1

Foxy said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Foxy said:
Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.
He's a chonky boy. 10/10 would pet.

On topic, I think Mayor Pete stands head and shoulders above the other potential candidates in terms of his intellect and ability to handle the media, but I don't think he'll get it, on account of his sexuality. Suspect Kamala will go for the Ming Vase strategy and pick someone like Mark Kelly. All American, astronaut, hard to dislike the guy. Hawkish on migration, so will bring something to the ticket.
Personally think that issue with PB for VP, is less his sexual identity, and more about fact he's ANOTHER Biden Administration insider.

One is plenty enough for 2024 Democratic ticket, methinks!
Yes, a very valid reason to go for a governor rather than someone from within the belt way.

US Senators are NOT repeat NOT part of any presidential administration, even when in same party as POTUS, and/or actively supporting the administration.

Different than UK situation. Thus NOT disqualifying (for example) for Mark Kelly.

As for the Taint of the Beltway (what you might call Anti-Potomoc Fever) fact that MK's only been US Senator since 2023 helps his cause if not total immunization.

Know folks are getting excited because Kamala Harris will name her VP on Tuesday, at campaign event in Philadelphia PA, right in Josh Shapiro's back (and front) yard.

HOWEVER, note KH's will also be stopping to campaign that day in . . . wait for it . . . Phoenix AZ.

Why? My guess is because Sun tracks east to west across the globe . . . and four time zones between Philly & Phoenix.

Theuniondivvie · August 1

TheScreamingEagles said:
FPT, I said this is your must read article about the Evan Gershkovich release

This is the closer

The Russian Federation had a few final items of protocol to tick through with the man who had become its most famous prisoner. One, he would be allowed to leave with the papers he’d penned in detention, the letters he’d scrawled out and the makings of a book he’d labored over. But first, they had another piece of writing they required from him, an official request for presidential clemency. The text, moreover, should be addressed to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.

The pro forma printout included a long blank space the prison could fill out if desired, or simply, as expected, leave blank. In the formal high Russian he had honed over 16 months imprisonment, the Journal’s Russia correspondent filled the page.

The last line submitted a proposal of his own: After his release, would Putin be willing to sit down for an interview?

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/evan-gershkovich-prisoner-exchange-ccb39ad3?st=811qp8le7r8uf5b&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

The little bit I've read about Gershkovich suggests he's quite a guy.

SeaShantyIrish2 · August 1

Nigelb said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Foxy said:
Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.
He's a chonky boy. 10/10 would pet.

On topic, I think Mayor Pete stands head and shoulders above the other potential candidates in terms of his intellect and ability to handle the media, but I don't think he'll get it, on account of his sexuality. Suspect Kamala will go for the Ming Vase strategy and pick someone like Mark Kelly. All American, astronaut, hard to dislike the guy. Hawkish on migration, so will bring something to the ticket.
Personally think that issue with PB for VP, is less his sexual identity, and more about fact he's ANOTHER Biden Administration insider.

One is plenty enough for 2024 Democratic ticket, methinks!
I don't think it matters.

Which is not to say that the VP choice is unimportant - rather that all those on the shortlist, including Buttigieg, are pretty good choices.

When was the last time that could be said about the Democrats ?

Do think it matters that Buttigieg is embedded in Biden administration.

Concur with you re: good choices!

TheScreamingEagles · August 1

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
FPT, I said this is your must read article about the Evan Gershkovich release

This is the closer

The Russian Federation had a few final items of protocol to tick through with the man who had become its most famous prisoner. One, he would be allowed to leave with the papers he’d penned in detention, the letters he’d scrawled out and the makings of a book he’d labored over. But first, they had another piece of writing they required from him, an official request for presidential clemency. The text, moreover, should be addressed to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.

The pro forma printout included a long blank space the prison could fill out if desired, or simply, as expected, leave blank. In the formal high Russian he had honed over 16 months imprisonment, the Journal’s Russia correspondent filled the page.

The last line submitted a proposal of his own: After his release, would Putin be willing to sit down for an interview?

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/evan-gershkovich-prisoner-exchange-ccb39ad3?st=811qp8le7r8uf5b&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
The little bit I've read about Gershkovich suggests he's quite a guy.

He is for an Arsenal fan.

His mother is quite some lady too.

TheScreamingEagles · August 1

Theuniondivvie said:
I think Trump's a roller rather than a changer.

Anti-Psychopath PAC
@PsychoPAC24
In the words of one of Trump’s biggest apologists, Donald “crapped the bed” yesterday. The only question is whether he’ll “change the sheets” or “roll around in it.” Here’s an ad for you, Donald. Kamala is laughing at you—just like we all are.

https://x.com/PsychoPAC24/status/1819060485578223851

The more pertinent question, would J.D. Vance fuck a couch that Donald Trump had just soiled?

williamglenn · August 1

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.

Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.

Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.

Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).

The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.

Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.

Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.

Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.

I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.

Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!

All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.

In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
I voted tory until 2010, you wont be ever getting me back frankly simple as that. I rather not vote than vote for your party of idiots
They did Brexit for you. Why no gratitude for that?
I didn't vote for them in 2015 nor did cameron want brexit...he expected to be in coalition with the shit dems and have to give up the referendum as the price. I do not believe for a minute he actually wanted it
Yes but Cameron fell and it became a party of Brexit and the populist right.

What's not to like?

In practice Cameron was a right-wing Eurosceptic and Boris was a liberal internationalist, even if the vibes were the opposite.

kinabalu · August 1

numbertwelve said:
The fascinating thing about this is Harris still has her VP pick and the convention to come.

There are always pitfalls for any candidate with the VP pick but it’s very hard to see given who is in the running that they could go down worse than Vance.

She’s showing much more confidence in her speaking now too and seems to have picked up some good speechwriters; so it’s hard to see her flubbing the convention moment.

That probably takes her momentum through to September. What’s the next event then? The debate - if Trump doesn’t back out and generate more negative headlines for doing so. If she continues to deal with him as competently as she is now it’s hard to see her messing up a debate with him. Then we’re into the home straight - but by that point it’s entirely possible she’s put some clear blue water between them.

It’s still close. But the direction of movement is all towards the Democrats right now, and there’s no scheduled “events” between now and September that feel like they’ll shift the momentum back. Harris remains value while her odds are behind Trump’s.

Value all the way to 1.7 imo.

She won't screw up because this is more about him than her. Without the gift of an opponent clearly unable to campaign Trump is left exposed for what he is - a terrible candidate, palpably unfit for office, appealing to few outside his (depressingly large) cult.

Harris is justifying being chosen, I rate her, but I see this election (as I've always done tbf) as a Trump Loses event rather than a Dem Wins. Pretty much the only Dem losing to Trump was Joe Biden and that was purely due to declining health.

ydoethur · August 1

HYUFD said:

After the convention and her VP pick Harris will likely take the lead but I would expect it to narrow again and be neck and neck by the end of September. Trump's sentencing will also be a factor as will US interest rates and inflation and the level of border crossings from Mexico over the next few months

Any further indication on what's likely to happen there?

He also has these two appeals that he's almost bound to lose in his civil cases in the autumn, I think. If Trump Tower is repossessed during the campaign that will complicate things for him.

Nigelb · August 1

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Foxy said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Foxy said:
Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.
He's a chonky boy. 10/10 would pet.

On topic, I think Mayor Pete stands head and shoulders above the other potential candidates in terms of his intellect and ability to handle the media, but I don't think he'll get it, on account of his sexuality. Suspect Kamala will go for the Ming Vase strategy and pick someone like Mark Kelly. All American, astronaut, hard to dislike the guy. Hawkish on migration, so will bring something to the ticket.
Personally think that issue with PB for VP, is less his sexual identity, and more about fact he's ANOTHER Biden Administration insider.

One is plenty enough for 2024 Democratic ticket, methinks!
Yes, a very valid reason to go for a governor rather than someone from within the belt way.
US Senators are NOT repeat NOT part of any presidential administration, even when in same party as POTUS, and/or actively supporting the administration.

Different than UK situation. Thus NOT disqualifying (for example) for Mark Kelly.

As for the Taint of the Beltway (what you might call Anti-Potomoc Fever) fact that MK's only been US Senator since 2023 helps his cause if not total immunization.

Know folks are getting excited because Kamala Harris will name her VP on Tuesday, at campaign event in Philadelphia PA, right in Josh Shapiro's back (and front) yard.

HOWEVER, note KH's will also be stopping to campaign that day in . . . wait for it . . . Phoenix AZ.

Why? My guess is because Sun tracks east to west across the globe . . . and four time zones between Philly & Phoenix.

Agreed.
I'm almost tempted to short Shapiro at current odds. But I greened out on the VP market, and there's not enough time left to trade safely.

SeaShantyIrish2 · August 1

NYT - Breaking news: Simone Biles wins second all-around Olympic gymnastics gold

SSI - Look for statement shortly from JD Vance, criticizing SB for "under-performing".

Luckyguy1983 · August 1

williamglenn said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.

Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.

Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.

Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).

The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.

Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.

Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.

Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.

I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.

Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!

All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.

In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
I voted tory until 2010, you wont be ever getting me back frankly simple as that. I rather not vote than vote for your party of idiots
They did Brexit for you. Why no gratitude for that?
I didn't vote for them in 2015 nor did cameron want brexit...he expected to be in coalition with the shit dems and have to give up the referendum as the price. I do not believe for a minute he actually wanted it
Yes but Cameron fell and it became a party of Brexit and the populist right.

What's not to like?
In practice Cameron was a right-wing Eurosceptic and Boris was a liberal internationalist, even if the vibes were the opposite.

Not really. Cameron and Osborne had a history of confecting public spats with the EU and capitulating later. 'We won't accept Juncker' and 'We won't pay this extra bill' being two examples.

Chris · August 1

SeaShantyIrish2 said:
NYT - Breaking news: Simone Biles wins second all-around Olympic gymnastics gold

SSI - Look for statement shortly from JD Vance, criticizing SB for "under-performing".

And from Trump questioning how long she has been black.

FrankBooth · August 1

Can anyone explain why the media keeps talking about the EDL (English Defence League) which was disbanded 10 years ago?

Nigelb · August 1

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Nigelb said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Foxy said:
Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.
He's a chonky boy. 10/10 would pet.

On topic, I think Mayor Pete stands head and shoulders above the other potential candidates in terms of his intellect and ability to handle the media, but I don't think he'll get it, on account of his sexuality. Suspect Kamala will go for the Ming Vase strategy and pick someone like Mark Kelly. All American, astronaut, hard to dislike the guy. Hawkish on migration, so will bring something to the ticket.
Personally think that issue with PB for VP, is less his sexual identity, and more about fact he's ANOTHER Biden Administration insider.

One is plenty enough for 2024 Democratic ticket, methinks!
I don't think it matters.

Which is not to say that the VP choice is unimportant - rather that all those on the shortlist, including Buttigieg, are pretty good choices.

When was the last time that could be said about the Democrats ?
Do think it matters that Buttigieg is embedded in Biden administration.

Concur with you re: good choices!

I honestly don't.
She's got to defend the administration's record anyway, and Sec Pete is an absolute master of that.

kinabalu · August 1

williamglenn said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.

Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.

Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.

Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).

The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.

Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.

Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.

Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.

I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.

Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!

All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.

In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
I voted tory until 2010, you wont be ever getting me back frankly simple as that. I rather not vote than vote for your party of idiots
They did Brexit for you. Why no gratitude for that?
I didn't vote for them in 2015 nor did cameron want brexit...he expected to be in coalition with the shit dems and have to give up the referendum as the price. I do not believe for a minute he actually wanted it
Yes but Cameron fell and it became a party of Brexit and the populist right.

What's not to like?
In practice Cameron was a right-wing Eurosceptic and Boris was a liberal internationalist, even if the vibes were the opposite.

I'm not sure Johnson was an anything 'ist'. Other than 'Con Art'

williamglenn · August 1

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.

Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.

Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.

Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).

The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.

Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.

Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.

Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.

I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.

Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!

All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.

In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
I voted tory until 2010, you wont be ever getting me back frankly simple as that. I rather not vote than vote for your party of idiots
They did Brexit for you. Why no gratitude for that?
I didn't vote for them in 2015 nor did cameron want brexit...he expected to be in coalition with the shit dems and have to give up the referendum as the price. I do not believe for a minute he actually wanted it
Yes but Cameron fell and it became a party of Brexit and the populist right.

What's not to like?
In practice Cameron was a right-wing Eurosceptic and Boris was a liberal internationalist, even if the vibes were the opposite.
I'm not sure Johnson was an anything 'ist'. Other than 'Con Art'

'P'?

Chris · August 1

HYUFD said:
RCP poll average has Trump still ahead but by just 0.3% on 44.1% with Harris on 43.8% and Kennedy on 5.9%, Stein on 0.9% and West on 0.8%.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

After the convention and her VP pick Harris will likely take the lead but I would expect it to narrow again and be neck and neck by the end of September. Trump's sentencing will also be a factor as will US interest rates and inflation and the level of border crossings from Mexico over the next few months

Only a couple of weeks ago you were confidently telling us what a mistake it would be to nominate Harris instead of Biden!

Doesn't it ever occur to you that you don't actually know what's going to happen in the future?

viewcode · August 1

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:
I think Trump's a roller rather than a changer.

Anti-Psychopath PAC
@PsychoPAC24
In the words of one of Trump’s biggest apologists, Donald “crapped the bed” yesterday. The only question is whether he’ll “change the sheets” or “roll around in it.” Here’s an ad for you, Donald. Kamala is laughing at you—just like we all are.

https://x.com/PsychoPAC24/status/1819060485578223851
The more pertinent question, would J.D. Vance fuck a couch that Donald Trump had just soiled?

Concurrently or consecutively?

SeaShantyIrish2 · August 1

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:
I think Trump's a roller rather than a changer.

Anti-Psychopath PAC
@PsychoPAC24
In the words of one of Trump’s biggest apologists, Donald “crapped the bed” yesterday. The only question is whether he’ll “change the sheets” or “roll around in it.” Here’s an ad for you, Donald. Kamala is laughing at you—just like we all are.

https://x.com/PsychoPAC24/status/1819060485578223851
The more pertinent question, would J.D. Vance fuck a couch that Donald Trump had just soiled?

Does the Pope ejaculate (verbally!) in Spanish?

Carnyx · August 1

Chris said:

HYUFD said:
RCP poll average has Trump still ahead but by just 0.3% on 44.1% with Harris on 43.8% and Kennedy on 5.9%, Stein on 0.9% and West on 0.8%.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

After the convention and her VP pick Harris will likely take the lead but I would expect it to narrow again and be neck and neck by the end of September. Trump's sentencing will also be a factor as will US interest rates and inflation and the level of border crossings from Mexico over the next few months
Only a couple of weeks ago you were confidently telling us what a mistake it would be to nominate Harris instead of Biden!

Doesn't it ever occur to you that you don't actually know what's going to happen in the future?

Don't be unkind to the poor chap. He's evidently training to become a political journalist with the BBC, with his Conservative lin - ah, I see the unfortunate timing problem.

Tres · August 1

FrankBooth said:
Can anyone explain why the media keeps talking about the EDL (English Defence League) which was disbanded 10 years ago?

Because they tried to attack a mosque in Southport (note not Stockport) earlier this week.

williamglenn · August 1

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:
I think Trump's a roller rather than a changer.

Anti-Psychopath PAC
@PsychoPAC24
In the words of one of Trump’s biggest apologists, Donald “crapped the bed” yesterday. The only question is whether he’ll “change the sheets” or “roll around in it.” Here’s an ad for you, Donald. Kamala is laughing at you—just like we all are.

https://x.com/PsychoPAC24/status/1819060485578223851
The more pertinent question, would J.D. Vance fuck a couch that Donald Trump had just soiled?

"Grab them by the plushie."

Northern_Al · August 1

Obviously Kamala's VP pick is largely a political decision. But isn't there also a personal element to it? Given that there seems to be a number of suitable candidates, I'd guess she'd pick somebody who she likes personally, thinks she can work closely with, and has strengths complementing her own. No idea who that is, though.

SeaShantyIrish2 · August 1

Nigelb said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Nigelb said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Foxy said:
Bottom right looks as if he knows how to deal with a pussy grabber.
He's a chonky boy. 10/10 would pet.

On topic, I think Mayor Pete stands head and shoulders above the other potential candidates in terms of his intellect and ability to handle the media, but I don't think he'll get it, on account of his sexuality. Suspect Kamala will go for the Ming Vase strategy and pick someone like Mark Kelly. All American, astronaut, hard to dislike the guy. Hawkish on migration, so will bring something to the ticket.
Personally think that issue with PB for VP, is less his sexual identity, and more about fact he's ANOTHER Biden Administration insider.

One is plenty enough for 2024 Democratic ticket, methinks!
I don't think it matters.

Which is not to say that the VP choice is unimportant - rather that all those on the shortlist, including Buttigieg, are pretty good choices.

When was the last time that could be said about the Democrats ?
Do think it matters that Buttigieg is embedded in Biden administration.

Concur with you re: good choices!
I honestly don't.
She's got to defend the administration's record anyway, and Sec Pete is an absolute master of that.

Personally will be fine with PB if he's KH's pick. Same as with the others she's considering.

DecrepiterJohnL · August 1

Luckyguy1983 said:
Fpt:

Fishing said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

eek said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Taz said:

stodge said:

Taz said:

stodge said:

Taz said:

rottenborough said:
Seriously? Jenrick is now favourite?

If they think Jenrick is the answer then god help the party.

I'll retire to Bedlam.
He could surprise on the upside.

I am not a Tory, never voted Tory in a GE, only once in a local election, therefore I hold no torch for them and have little knowledge of Jenrick apart from his rather hapless time as a Minister.
Well, it just goes to show you should never judge a book by its cover.

I had you pegged as a diehard Conservative.

If you're one of the "I don't like any of them" brigade. fine, but what would you support or for what would you vote positively rather than negatively?
"pegged" !!!!!

Why would you have me down as a Tory, just as a matter of interest ?

I did post here that I was not going to vote, but in the end, and I said I would, I voted for Luke Akehurst our Labour candidate. I do not loathe Reform supporters like some people on this board, I live among many of them, but I didn't want to risk a Reform MP here and their economic policies were crackers. I'm socially liberal and fiscally more conservative so I like Rachel Reeves and the cut of her jib. I also don't think she has done anything wrong so far. I like the likes our Haigh, Cooper, Phillipson and Streeting too.

The Tories were just to utterly incompetent at the end. They needed putting out of their misery. SKS and co deserve a chance. Another 5 years of the preceding 5 years would be unbearable.

The only time I ever voted Tory was for a local councillor who was excellent and did alot for the ward. I saw that more as an endorsement of him personally than his party.
Pegged - as in a square one going into a round hole it would seem.

You've posted about as often as I have but as I drop in and out on here I don't read every post. I just had the sense you were often defending the Conservatives and being critical of Labour so I made the assumption which I shouldn't have done.

In truth, you aren't a million miles away from me and I'm happy to give the new Government a fair crack of the whip for all some on here seem to think the IMF will be here in four years. I'd only disagree the Conservatives didn't need putting out of their misery, they needed putting out of our misery.

I find Reform a paradox as I've said on here before - the anti-immigration line is all that holds them together. Farage and Tice are unreconstructed Thatcherites who want tax cuts especially for the wealthy while the Reform membership and voters are more nuanced - some still cling to the Johnsonian levelling up agenda, others simply want more spending and investment in WWC areas.
I suspect from the reform voters I know here they are social conservatives but want alot more spending here. Many went for Bojo due to the promise of levelling up. Our areas have been neglected and ignored for long enough. My hope is the local mayor here will make a difference. A reform MP probably won’t .

I think in places like this Reform could be a threat to labour in five years so they will need to do something for the area.
I think they just want solutions. High streets to stop being wastelands full of empty shops. That's not due to lack of spending, that's due to pension funds and their overvalued property portfolios.
Reform voters want a return to a past that is no longer possible - shops can only exist if there is appropriate spare cash to keep them going and in an awful lot of reform voting areas that cash doesn't exist.

We went to Redcar last night because the weather was decent. When you walk along the sea front and see that another few shops have closed it does get rather depression.
I'm not sure whose spare cash you mean, but I don't think I agree. It is natural for landlords to want to rent their properties to avoid paying to maintain them without an income. That should mean there is never a signficant amount of empty high street stock - rents should fall to meet demand. That's what has always happened in the past. Neighbourhoods have gone up and down, with posh shops replaced by more lowly shops, but there hasn't been a ghost town effect. This isn't happening now afaics because we have a big issue with pension funds being balls deep in commercial property and not wanting to accept that their assets are worth tens of millions less than they say they are. So they hang on to vastly unrealistic rents and nobody bites.
Yes retail shops are definitely yesterday's technology in most cases. We need to speed up the end of the high street, by making it much easier for shops to be converted back to residences. Of course the Luddites will protest for a while, and invoke lots of sentimental drivel to hold back progress, but hopefully they will be ignored.
I disagree, and that isn't the implication of what I am saying. What I'm saying is that physical retail in towns can very much thrive if the free market is allowed to operate in the high street property market, rather than large owners of commercial property bed-blocking it because they don't want to admit their portfolios are not worth what they say they are.

There is a big issue in this country with pension funds becoming massive blockers of progress. That's partly because Governments forced them away from investing in a more varied portfolio - once again, the state fucking up the economy. Rachel Reeves is right that these funds need to vary their portfolios and invest in 'economic growth' - the trouble is that to make 'economic growth' worth a damn, you have to create the conditions for it, and Labour don't just not know how, they don't want to know how.

As opposed to which other party? The reason Liz Truss was so keen on growth was the legacy of George Osborne.

Northern_Al · August 1

FrankBooth said:
Can anyone explain why the media keeps talking about the EDL (English Defence League) which was disbanded 10 years ago?

I've referred to EDL on here. It's just shorthand for a number of far-right racist groups that have splintered in recent years, but most have some association with Tommy Robinson. Not all EDL members are aware that it is defunct, as they tend not be be very bright.
If you'd prefer, I'll refer to Britain First in the future.

kinabalu · August 1

williamglenn said:

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

kinabalu said:

Pagan2 said:

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.

Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.

Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.

Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).

The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.

Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.

Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.

Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.

I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.

Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!

All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.

In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
I voted tory until 2010, you wont be ever getting me back frankly simple as that. I rather not vote than vote for your party of idiots
They did Brexit for you. Why no gratitude for that?
I didn't vote for them in 2015 nor did cameron want brexit...he expected to be in coalition with the shit dems and have to give up the referendum as the price. I do not believe for a minute he actually wanted it
Yes but Cameron fell and it became a party of Brexit and the populist right.

What's not to like?
In practice Cameron was a right-wing Eurosceptic and Boris was a liberal internationalist, even if the vibes were the opposite.
I'm not sure Johnson was an anything 'ist'. Other than 'Con Art'
'P'?

He's not a big drinker, I don't think? Too figure conscious.

FrankBooth · August 1

Northern_Al said:

FrankBooth said:
Can anyone explain why the media keeps talking about the EDL (English Defence League) which was disbanded 10 years ago?
I've referred to EDL on here. It's just shorthand for a number of far-right racist groups that have splintered in recent years, but most have some association with Tommy Robinson. Not all EDL members are aware that it is defunct, as they tend not be be very bright.
If you'd prefer, I'll refer to Britain First in the future.

With all respect you are not a journalist. I'm talking about the professionals.

kinabalu · August 1

Northern_Al said:

FrankBooth said:
Can anyone explain why the media keeps talking about the EDL (English Defence League) which was disbanded 10 years ago?
I've referred to EDL on here. It's just shorthand for a number of far-right racist groups that have splintered in recent years, but most have some association with Tommy Robinson. Not all EDL members are aware that it is defunct, as they tend not be be very bright.
If you'd prefer, I'll refer to Britain First in the future.

There's one with "Patriot" - or "Patriotic" - in the name too. Forget the exact formulation.

Luckyguy1983 · August 1

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Luckyguy1983 said:
Fpt:

Fishing said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

eek said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Taz said:

stodge said:

Taz said:

stodge said:

Taz said:

rottenborough said:
Seriously? Jenrick is now favourite?

If they think Jenrick is the answer then god help the party.

I'll retire to Bedlam.
He could surprise on the upside.

I am not a Tory, never voted Tory in a GE, only once in a local election, therefore I hold no torch for them and have little knowledge of Jenrick apart from his rather hapless time as a Minister.
Well, it just goes to show you should never judge a book by its cover.

I had you pegged as a diehard Conservative.

If you're one of the "I don't like any of them" brigade. fine, but what would you support or for what would you vote positively rather than negatively?
"pegged" !!!!!

Why would you have me down as a Tory, just as a matter of interest ?

I did post here that I was not going to vote, but in the end, and I said I would, I voted for Luke Akehurst our Labour candidate. I do not loathe Reform supporters like some people on this board, I live among many of them, but I didn't want to risk a Reform MP here and their economic policies were crackers. I'm socially liberal and fiscally more conservative so I like Rachel Reeves and the cut of her jib. I also don't think she has done anything wrong so far. I like the likes our Haigh, Cooper, Phillipson and Streeting too.

The Tories were just to utterly incompetent at the end. They needed putting out of their misery. SKS and co deserve a chance. Another 5 years of the preceding 5 years would be unbearable.

The only time I ever voted Tory was for a local councillor who was excellent and did alot for the ward. I saw that more as an endorsement of him personally than his party.
Pegged - as in a square one going into a round hole it would seem.

You've posted about as often as I have but as I drop in and out on here I don't read every post. I just had the sense you were often defending the Conservatives and being critical of Labour so I made the assumption which I shouldn't have done.

In truth, you aren't a million miles away from me and I'm happy to give the new Government a fair crack of the whip for all some on here seem to think the IMF will be here in four years. I'd only disagree the Conservatives didn't need putting out of their misery, they needed putting out of our misery.

I find Reform a paradox as I've said on here before - the anti-immigration line is all that holds them together. Farage and Tice are unreconstructed Thatcherites who want tax cuts especially for the wealthy while the Reform membership and voters are more nuanced - some still cling to the Johnsonian levelling up agenda, others simply want more spending and investment in WWC areas.
I suspect from the reform voters I know here they are social conservatives but want alot more spending here. Many went for Bojo due to the promise of levelling up. Our areas have been neglected and ignored for long enough. My hope is the local mayor here will make a difference. A reform MP probably won’t .

I think in places like this Reform could be a threat to labour in five years so they will need to do something for the area.
I think they just want solutions. High streets to stop being wastelands full of empty shops. That's not due to lack of spending, that's due to pension funds and their overvalued property portfolios.
Reform voters want a return to a past that is no longer possible - shops can only exist if there is appropriate spare cash to keep them going and in an awful lot of reform voting areas that cash doesn't exist.

We went to Redcar last night because the weather was decent. When you walk along the sea front and see that another few shops have closed it does get rather depression.
I'm not sure whose spare cash you mean, but I don't think I agree. It is natural for landlords to want to rent their properties to avoid paying to maintain them without an income. That should mean there is never a signficant amount of empty high street stock - rents should fall to meet demand. That's what has always happened in the past. Neighbourhoods have gone up and down, with posh shops replaced by more lowly shops, but there hasn't been a ghost town effect. This isn't happening now afaics because we have a big issue with pension funds being balls deep in commercial property and not wanting to accept that their assets are worth tens of millions less than they say they are. So they hang on to vastly unrealistic rents and nobody bites.
Yes retail shops are definitely yesterday's technology in most cases. We need to speed up the end of the high street, by making it much easier for shops to be converted back to residences. Of course the Luddites will protest for a while, and invoke lots of sentimental drivel to hold back progress, but hopefully they will be ignored.
I disagree, and that isn't the implication of what I am saying. What I'm saying is that physical retail in towns can very much thrive if the free market is allowed to operate in the high street property market, rather than large owners of commercial property bed-blocking it because they don't want to admit their portfolios are not worth what they say they are.

There is a big issue in this country with pension funds becoming massive blockers of progress. That's partly because Governments forced them away from investing in a more varied portfolio - once again, the state fucking up the economy. Rachel Reeves is right that these funds need to vary their portfolios and invest in 'economic growth' - the trouble is that to make 'economic growth' worth a damn, you have to create the conditions for it, and Labour don't just not know how, they don't want to know how.
As opposed to which other party? The reason Liz Truss was so keen on growth was the legacy of George Osborne.

I think the Tories are partly there (not wholly sadly), but Labour I think are actively opposed to creating the conditions needed.

kinabalu · August 1

SeaShantyIrish2 said:
NYT - Breaking news: Simone Biles wins second all-around Olympic gymnastics gold

SSI - Look for statement shortly from JD Vance, criticizing SB for "under-performing".

I watched it. She was amazing.

spudgfsh · August 1

interesting little write-up with some details from Nate Silver (ex 538.com) on his current model of the state of play of the US election.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-presidential-election-is-a-toss

essentially has it as a coin toss in the rust belt states.

DecrepiterJohnL · August 1

Northern_Al said:
Obviously Kamala's VP pick is largely a political decision. But isn't there also a personal element to it? Given that there seems to be a number of suitable candidates, I'd guess she'd pick somebody who she likes personally, thinks she can work closely with, and has strengths complementing her own. No idea who that is, though.

Probably not, at least in the comparatively few years I've been paying attention. President and VP do not work especially closely, and often first met in the party convention car park. Remember four years ago, Biden had a written note not to bear grudges when he chose Kamala.

DecrepiterJohnL · August 1

kinabalu said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:
NYT - Breaking news: Simone Biles wins second all-around Olympic gymnastics gold

SSI - Look for statement shortly from JD Vance, criticizing SB for "under-performing".
I watched it. She was amazing.

It is funny though. Simone Biles is not jaw-dropping like Olga Korbut or Nadia Comaneci were back in the day; she is just the GOAT; it seems to come so easily to her.

ohnotnow · August 1

FrankBooth said:
Can anyone explain why the media keeps talking about the EDL (English Defence League) which was disbanded 10 years ago?

Because they're a bit rubbish and use short-hand?

As to why certain people quibble about it compared to condemning the thuggish, repulsive behaviour of people who would previously happily have turned up at EDL events - who can possibly say.

TheScreamingEagles · August 1

Scotland's Andy Murray crashes out of the Olympics and that's the end of his career.

What a career he has had, I will miss him.

kinabalu · August 1

spudgfsh said:
interesting little write-up with some details from Nate Silver (ex 538.com) on his current model of the state of play of the US election.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-presidential-election-is-a-toss

essentially has it as a coin toss in the rust belt states.

These models are essentially about an election held tomorrow rather than in 3 months, though, aren't they?

ie they apply the polls as they are now. They don't try and predict where the polls are going. It's not forecasting.

DavidL · August 1

TheScreamingEagles said:
Scotland's Andy Murray crashes out of the Olympics and that's the end of his career.

What a career he has had, I will miss him.

He's been great. Such a fighter. So many brilliant matches. And in the time of the Fed, Nadal and Djokovic.

Pulpstar · August 1

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Scotland's Andy Murray crashes out of the Olympics and that's the end of his career.

What a career he has had, I will miss him.
He's been great. Such a fighter. So many brilliant matches. And in the time of the Fed, Nadal and Djokovic.

Just remarking it was a bit of a shame he didn't face Nadal in the draw

spudgfsh · August 1

kinabalu said:

spudgfsh said:
interesting little write-up with some details from Nate Silver (ex 538.com) on his current model of the state of play of the US election.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-presidential-election-is-a-toss

essentially has it as a coin toss in the rust belt states.
These models are essentially about an election held tomorrow rather than in 3 months, though, aren't they?

ie they apply the polls as they are now. They don't try and predict where the polls are going. It's not forecasting.

yes but you can't base a model today on the opinion polls from 3 months time now can you?

MisterBedfordshire · August 1

Rather interesting 5th Century mosaic of Peter the Apostle in Ravenna Basilica.

https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Peter_the_Apostle._Detail_of_the_mosaic_in_the_Basilica_of_San_Vitale._Ravena,_Italy.jpg

kinabalu · August 1

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Scotland's Andy Murray crashes out of the Olympics and that's the end of his career.

What a career he has had, I will miss him.
He's been great. Such a fighter. So many brilliant matches. And in the time of the Fed, Nadal and Djokovic.

Underrated. From 2012 through 2017 (before the injuries) he was totally Big4 along with those 3. And in 2016 he was the best. In that year a 2nd Wimbo won easily, successfully defended Olympic gold, Tour Finals, World #1.

Always been a fan. The greatest ever Brit (or Scot if you like) solo sportsman.

FrankBooth · August 1

ohnotnow said:

FrankBooth said:
Can anyone explain why the media keeps talking about the EDL (English Defence League) which was disbanded 10 years ago?
Because they're a bit rubbish and use short-hand?

As to why certain people quibble about it compared to condemning the thuggish, repulsive behaviour of people who would previously happily have turned up at EDL events - who can possibly say.

It's sloppy though isn't it. If you think of all the various left wing splinter groups or Islamist groups I think they would be a bit more specific.

Jim_Miller · August 1

Looking ahead: I hope that we in the US — and our allies — are already collecting hostages for the next round of exchanges. And we shouldn’t forget to do the same for the Mullahs in Iran.

The ChiComs are trickier, but the same logic applies to them.

Cookie · August 1

TheScreamingEagles said:
Scotland's Andy Murray crashes out of the Olympics and that's the end of his career.

What a career he has had, I will miss him.

His peculiar fate to have his valediction remarked upon by two swimmers and a horsewoman (perfectly adequately, I should add, given my tendency to grumbke about CB).

It may not be Stuart Broad but it's still a better swansong than most of us get. Well done Andy.

Theuniondivvie · August 1

kinabalu said:

Northern_Al said:

FrankBooth said:
Can anyone explain why the media keeps talking about the EDL (English Defence League) which was disbanded 10 years ago?
I've referred to EDL on here. It's just shorthand for a number of far-right racist groups that have splintered in recent years, but most have some association with Tommy Robinson. Not all EDL members are aware that it is defunct, as they tend not be be very bright.
If you'd prefer, I'll refer to Britain First in the future.
There's one with "Patriot" - or "Patriotic" - in the name too. Forget the exact formulation.

Patriotic Alternative.
Presumably the alternative to eg the normal people of Southport who tried to show solidarity with each other, repaired the wall of the local mosque and swept up the mess after these rsoles came to town.

Cookie · August 1

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kinabalu said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:
NYT - Breaking news: Simone Biles wins second all-around Olympic gymnastics gold

SSI - Look for statement shortly from JD Vance, criticizing SB for "under-performing".
I watched it. She was amazing.
It is funny though. Simone Biles is not jaw-dropping like Olga Korbut or Nadia Comaneci were back in the day; she is just the GOAT; it seems to come so easily to her.

She's about 104 in gymnast years. Astonishing. She's the Jimmy Anderson of the sparkly leotard.

kinabalu · August 1

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kinabalu said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:
NYT - Breaking news: Simone Biles wins second all-around Olympic gymnastics gold

SSI - Look for statement shortly from JD Vance, criticizing SB for "under-performing".
I watched it. She was amazing.
It is funny though. Simone Biles is not jaw-dropping like Olga Korbut or Nadia Comaneci were back in the day; she is just the GOAT; it seems to come so easily to her.

Ooo not sure I agree with that. That floor routine for example. Not at her absolute best today perhaps but still a clear winning margin.

Cookie · August 1

FrankBooth said:

ohnotnow said:

FrankBooth said:
Can anyone explain why the media keeps talking about the EDL (English Defence League) which was disbanded 10 years ago?
Because they're a bit rubbish and use short-hand?

As to why certain people quibble about it compared to condemning the thuggish, repulsive behaviour of people who would previously happily have turned up at EDL events - who can possibly say.
It's sloppy though isn't it. If you think of all the various left wing splinter groups or Islamist groups I think they would be a bit more specific.

The EDL have managed to exert a peculiar hold on the imagination. I remember a children's festival a few years back at which some activity-minder urged the kids not to vote EDL. Super redundant, given that the EDL weren't a political party, had been disbanded, and that the puzzled U7s at the festival didn't have the vote.

Taz · August 1

The BBC not coming out of the Huw Edwards fiasco well at all.

A good reason to look at scrapping the license fee.

https://x.com/vicderbyshire/status/1819054962774597928?s=61

turbotubbs · August 1

TheScreamingEagles said:
Scotland's Andy Murray crashes out of the Olympics and that's the end of his career.

What a career he has had, I will miss him.

British men’s tennis is in better shape now than for a long time, but we remain to see if Jack Draper really is the new Murray (I think he could win a slam or several in the next ten years, now we are moving finally into the post big three era).

DecrepiterJohnL · August 1

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kinabalu said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:
NYT - Breaking news: Simone Biles wins second all-around Olympic gymnastics gold

SSI - Look for statement shortly from JD Vance, criticizing SB for "under-performing".
I watched it. She was amazing.
It is funny though. Simone Biles is not jaw-dropping like Olga Korbut or Nadia Comaneci were back in the day; she is just the GOAT; it seems to come so easily to her.
Ooo not sure I agree with that. That floor routine for example. Not at her absolute best today perhaps but still a clear winning margin.

What are you disagreeing with? I said Simone Biles is the greatest of all time.

Theuniondivvie · August 1

Cookie said:

FrankBooth said:

ohnotnow said:

FrankBooth said:
Can anyone explain why the media keeps talking about the EDL (English Defence League) which was disbanded 10 years ago?
Because they're a bit rubbish and use short-hand?

As to why certain people quibble about it compared to condemning the thuggish, repulsive behaviour of people who would previously happily have turned up at EDL events - who can possibly say.
It's sloppy though isn't it. If you think of all the various left wing splinter groups or Islamist groups I think they would be a bit more specific.
The EDL have managed to exert a peculiar hold on the imagination. I remember a children's festival a few years back at which some activity-minder urged the kids not to vote EDL. Super redundant, given that the EDL weren't a political party, had been disbanded, and that the puzzled U7s at the festival didn't have the vote.

Tommy Robinson one of the founder members who is still very much with us. It's probably shorthand for whichever bunch of racist dimwits he happens to be whipping up into a frenzy at any given moment.

turbotubbs · August 1

Cookie said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kinabalu said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:
NYT - Breaking news: Simone Biles wins second all-around Olympic gymnastics gold

SSI - Look for statement shortly from JD Vance, criticizing SB for "under-performing".
I watched it. She was amazing.
It is funny though. Simone Biles is not jaw-dropping like Olga Korbut or Nadia Comaneci were back in the day; she is just the GOAT; it seems to come so easily to her.
She's about 104 in gymnast years. Astonishing. She's the Jimmy Anderson of the sparkly leotard.

Not really that old at 27. The era of the young teenage Eastern European is mostly done now, and gymnasts tend to have longer careers.

DecrepiterJohnL · August 1

Taz said:
The BBC not coming out of the Huw Edwards fiasco well at all.

A good reason to look at scrapping the license fee.

https://x.com/vicderbyshire/status/1819054962774597928?s=61

A good ~~excuse~~ reason for Labour to ditch the Tory BBC DG, more like.

kinabalu · August 1

Theuniondivvie said:

kinabalu said:

Northern_Al said:

FrankBooth said:
Can anyone explain why the media keeps talking about the EDL (English Defence League) which was disbanded 10 years ago?
I've referred to EDL on here. It's just shorthand for a number of far-right racist groups that have splintered in recent years, but most have some association with Tommy Robinson. Not all EDL members are aware that it is defunct, as they tend not be be very bright.
If you'd prefer, I'll refer to Britain First in the future.
There's one with "Patriot" - or "Patriotic" - in the name too. Forget the exact formulation.
Patriotic Alternative.
Presumably the alternative to eg the normal people of Southport who tried to show solidarity with each other, repaired the wall of the local mosque and swept up the mess after these rsoles came to town.

That's the one. Ghouls really. And no I don't find it understandable in the circumstances and no I don't want to listen to their 'concerns'.

Luckyguy1983 · August 1

Taz said:
The BBC not coming out of the Huw Edwards fiasco well at all.

A good reason to look at scrapping the license fee.

https://x.com/vicderbyshire/status/1819054962774597928?s=61

Licence.

kinabalu · August 1

Cookie said:

FrankBooth said:

ohnotnow said:

FrankBooth said:
Can anyone explain why the media keeps talking about the EDL (English Defence League) which was disbanded 10 years ago?
Because they're a bit rubbish and use short-hand?

As to why certain people quibble about it compared to condemning the thuggish, repulsive behaviour of people who would previously happily have turned up at EDL events - who can possibly say.
It's sloppy though isn't it. If you think of all the various left wing splinter groups or Islamist groups I think they would be a bit more specific.
The EDL have managed to exert a peculiar hold on the imagination. I remember a children's festival a few years back at which some activity-minder urged the kids not to vote EDL. Super redundant, given that the EDL weren't a political party, had been disbanded, and that the puzzled U7s at the festival didn't have the vote.

I hope that didn't imbue them with the dark glamour of the forbidden. We know how kids can be.

Dumbosaurus · August 1

VP market is great atm. Just lay favourites and back outsiders. Rinse and repeat. No one knows anything.

Atm that means laying Shapiro, but that might change in next hour, who knows!

Foxy · August 1

kinabalu said:

Northern_Al said:

FrankBooth said:
Can anyone explain why the media keeps talking about the EDL (English Defence League) which was disbanded 10 years ago?
I've referred to EDL on here. It's just shorthand for a number of far-right racist groups that have splintered in recent years, but most have some association with Tommy Robinson. Not all EDL members are aware that it is defunct, as they tend not be be very bright.
If you'd prefer, I'll refer to Britain First in the future.
There's one with "Patriot" - or "Patriotic" - in the name too. Forget the exact formulation.

It's a bit like countries called "democratic" or "peoples", these patriots are mostly people who hate their fellow countrymen.

Cookie · August 1

turbotubbs said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Scotland's Andy Murray crashes out of the Olympics and that's the end of his career.

What a career he has had, I will miss him.
British men’s tennis is in better shape now than for a long time, but we remain to see if Jack Draper really is the new Murray (I think he could win a slam or several in the next ten years, now we are moving finally into the post big three era).

It's quite rare in tennis that a player outside the top 4 wins a slam. Tim Henman was one of the ten best tennis players in the world - an amazing achievment - but is remembered as a bit of a plucky loser because he never won a slam. Contrast with gold which distributes its slam victories much more widely.

DavidL · August 1

I did say last night that this might happen today: https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/other/kamala-harris-takes-lead-over-trump-in-betting-odds-for-the-first-time/ar-BB1r2nbr?ocid=BingNewsVerp

Only 1 exchange but still the momentum is with her.

Cookie · August 1

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Scotland's Andy Murray crashes out of the Olympics and that's the end of his career.

What a career he has had, I will miss him.
He's been great. Such a fighter. So many brilliant matches. And in the time of the Fed, Nadal and Djokovic.
Underrated. From 2012 through 2017 (before the injuries) he was totally Big4 along with those 3. And in 2016 he was the best. In that year a 2nd Wimbo won easily, successfully defended Olympic gold, Tour Finals, World #1.

Always been a fan. The greatest ever Brit (or Scot if you like) solo sportsman.

Not sure I'd go that far! He was very good, but the best ever in any solo sport? Just in tennis, I'd counterpropose Fred Perry. In any solo sport ever - good question, but I'd go for Phil Taylor. Various middle distance runners from.the 80s also get a nod. Who else?

turbotubbs · August 1

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Scotland's Andy Murray crashes out of the Olympics and that's the end of his career.

What a career he has had, I will miss him.
He's been great. Such a fighter. So many brilliant matches. And in the time of the Fed, Nadal and Djokovic.
Underrated. From 2012 through 2017 (before the injuries) he was totally Big4 along with those 3. And in 2016 he was the best. In that year a 2nd Wimbo won easily, successfully defended Olympic gold, Tour Finals, World #1.

Always been a fan. The greatest ever Brit (or Scot if you like) solo sportsman.
Not sure I'd go that far! He was very good, but the best ever in any solo sport? Just in tennis, I'd counterpropose Fred Perry. In any solo sport ever - good question, but I'd go for Phil Taylor. Various middle distance runners from.the 80s also get a nod. Who else?

Ronnie o Sullivan for pure talent.

DecrepiterJohnL · August 1

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Scotland's Andy Murray crashes out of the Olympics and that's the end of his career.

What a career he has had, I will miss him.
British men’s tennis is in better shape now than for a long time, but we remain to see if Jack Draper really is the new Murray (I think he could win a slam or several in the next ten years, now we are moving finally into the post big three era).
It's quite rare in tennis that a player outside the top 4 wins a slam. Tim Henman was one of the ten best tennis players in the world - an amazing achievment - but is remembered as a bit of a plucky loser because he never won a slam. Contrast with gold which distributes its slam victories much more widely.

Andy Murray's stats from the BBC's Olympics feed:-

Andy Murray won his first title in 2006.

He's been on some journey since then. Eighteen years later and he's got 46 singles titles to his name.

That includes three Grand Slam triumphs, two Olympic golds and 14 Masters 1000 titles.

He spent 41 weeks as world number one, and claimed 29 victories over the 'Big Three' - Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

The Scot won 739 of his 1001 ATP Tour level matches and wracked up a whopping $64,677,584 in prize money.

Cookie · August 1

SeaShantyIrish2 said:
NYT - Breaking news: Simone Biles wins second all-around Olympic gymnastics gold

SSI - Look for statement shortly from JD Vance, criticizing SB for "under-performing".

To br fait to Vance, I think he was (very reasonably, in my view) criticising a culture which praised victimhood over success.
And I did think it peculiar that she seemed to get mote plaudits for pulling out than for winning. Sympathy, sure. But it went beyond that.
But it was an odd time.

DecrepiterJohnL · August 1

Dumbosaurus said:
VP market is great atm. Just lay favourites and back outsiders. Rinse and repeat. No one knows anything.

Atm that means laying Shapiro, but that might change in next hour, who knows!

When are we expecting a decision on the VP pick?

Cookie · August 1

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Scotland's Andy Murray crashes out of the Olympics and that's the end of his career.

What a career he has had, I will miss him.
British men’s tennis is in better shape now than for a long time, but we remain to see if Jack Draper really is the new Murray (I think he could win a slam or several in the next ten years, now we are moving finally into the post big three era).
It's quite rare in tennis that a player outside the top 4 wins a slam. Tim Henman was one of the ten best tennis players in the world - an amazing achievment - but is remembered as a bit of a plucky loser because he never won a slam. Contrast with gold which distributes its slam victories much more widely.

Golf! Not gold.

SeaShantyIrish2 · August 1

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Dumbosaurus said:
VP market is great atm. Just lay favourites and back outsiders. Rinse and repeat. No one knows anything.

Atm that means laying Shapiro, but that might change in next hour, who knows!
When are we expecting a decision on the VP pick?

Next Tuesday, the day that Kamala Harris will officially be nominated for POTUS.

kinabalu · August 1

turbotubbs said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Scotland's Andy Murray crashes out of the Olympics and that's the end of his career.

What a career he has had, I will miss him.
He's been great. Such a fighter. So many brilliant matches. And in the time of the Fed, Nadal and Djokovic.
Underrated. From 2012 through 2017 (before the injuries) he was totally Big4 along with those 3. And in 2016 he was the best. In that year a 2nd Wimbo won easily, successfully defended Olympic gold, Tour Finals, World #1.

Always been a fan. The greatest ever Brit (or Scot if you like) solo sportsman.
Not sure I'd go that far! He was very good, but the best ever in any solo sport? Just in tennis, I'd counterpropose Fred Perry. In any solo sport ever - good question, but I'd go for Phil Taylor. Various middle distance runners from.the 80s also get a nod. Who else?
Ronnie o Sullivan for pure talent.

Yes good call. I have Murray higher but only because tennis > snooker.

ThomasNashe · August 1

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Scotland's Andy Murray crashes out of the Olympics and that's the end of his career.

What a career he has had, I will miss him.
He's been great. Such a fighter. So many brilliant matches. And in the time of the Fed, Nadal and Djokovic.
Underrated. From 2012 through 2017 (before the injuries) he was totally Big4 along with those 3. And in 2016 he was the best. In that year a 2nd Wimbo won easily, successfully defended Olympic gold, Tour Finals, World #1.

Always been a fan. The greatest ever Brit (or Scot if you like) solo sportsman.

And also - and this is not said enough - a fine human being.

dixiedean · August 1

turbotubbs said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Scotland's Andy Murray crashes out of the Olympics and that's the end of his career.

What a career he has had, I will miss him.
British men’s tennis is in better shape now than for a long time, but we remain to see if Jack Draper really is the new Murray (I think he could win a slam or several in the next ten years, now we are moving finally into the post big three era).

Yeah. We've got 13 players in the Top 300. Including Murray.

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