Another potential crossover is looming – politicalbetting.com

Kamala Harris is about to make the most important choice of her campaign: Who should be her running mate? Nation writers make their cases for the strongest vice-presidential candidate.https://t.co/Z89Cjh7DzT
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That is, brewed from the well-fermented remains of former Labour Party Leaders!
"Soylent Green Is People!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2aH9tu4s30
My response that what Defra don't have to know they are not going to know was met with total incomprehension. He saw such agents of the state as benign helpers building society.
Alas they are long dead now, the last one aged nine shortly before Defra imposed a six month lockdown on the poor creatures.
Now registration is compulsory even if you only have one and the poor creatures have to be locked down for months every winter.
Reporter: Trump said he could have gotten the hostages out without giving anything in exchange. What do you say to that?
Biden: Why didn't he do it when he was president?
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1819048370671071495
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west
After the convention and her VP pick Harris will likely take the lead but I would expect it to narrow again and be neck and neck by the end of September. Trump's sentencing will also be a factor as will US interest rates and inflation and the level of border crossings from Mexico over the next few months
On topic, I think Mayor Pete stands head and shoulders above the other potential candidates in terms of his intellect and ability to handle the media, but I don't think he'll get it, on account of his sexuality. Suspect Kamala will go for the Ming Vase strategy and pick someone like Mark Kelly. All American, astronaut, hard to dislike the guy. Hawkish on migration, so will bring something to the ticket.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west
After the convention and her VP pick Harris will likely take the lead but I would expect it to narrow again and be neck and neck by the end of September. Trump's sentencing will also be a factor as will US interest rates and inflation and the level of border crossings from Mexico over the next few months
I mean, I don't agree with him a lot of the time, but that's harsh.
One is plenty enough for 2024 Democratic ticket, methinks!
There are always pitfalls for any candidate with the VP pick but it’s very hard to see given who is in the running that they could go down worse than Vance.
She’s showing much more confidence in her speaking now too and seems to have picked up some good speechwriters; so it’s hard to see her flubbing the convention moment.
That probably takes her momentum through to September. What’s the next event then? The debate - if Trump doesn’t back out and generate more negative headlines for doing so. If she continues to deal with him as competently as she is now it’s hard to see her messing up a debate with him. Then we’re into the home straight - but by that point it’s entirely possible she’s put some clear blue water between them.
It’s still close. But the direction of movement is all towards the Democrats right now, and there’s no scheduled “events” between now and September that feel like they’ll shift the momentum back. Harris remains value while her odds are behind Trump’s.
There is a big issue in this country with pension funds becoming massive blockers of progress. That's partly because Governments forced them away from investing in a more varied portfolio - once again, the state fucking up the economy. Rachel Reeves is right that these funds need to vary their portfolios and invest in 'economic growth' - the trouble is that to make 'economic growth' worth a damn, you have to create the conditions for it, and Labour don't just not know how, they don't want to know how.
"Kamala Harris should go full cat lady and choose my darling Patsy. We’re always hearing that the vice presidency is trivial and boring and hasn’t won a state since LBJ won Texas for JFK. Patsy would be perfect. Close to 50 percent of American households own at least one cat—that’s a huge voting bloc entirely neglected until now."
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/kamala-harris-vice-president-veepstakes/
Anti-Psychopath PAC
@PsychoPAC24
In the words of one of Trump’s biggest apologists, Donald “crapped the bed” yesterday. The only question is whether he’ll “change the sheets” or “roll around in it.” Here’s an ad for you, Donald. Kamala is laughing at you—just like we all are.
https://x.com/PsychoPAC24/status/1819060485578223851
“He did crap the bed today. The only question is whether he’s gonna roll around in it or get up and change the sheets.”
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1818854202753355873
(Edit -gazumped.)
Which is not to say that the VP choice is unimportant - rather that all those on the shortlist, including Buttigieg, are pretty good choices.
When was the last time that could be said about the Democrats ?
This is the closer
The Russian Federation had a few final items of protocol to tick through with the man who had become its most famous prisoner. One, he would be allowed to leave with the papers he’d penned in detention, the letters he’d scrawled out and the makings of a book he’d labored over. But first, they had another piece of writing they required from him, an official request for presidential clemency. The text, moreover, should be addressed to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.
The pro forma printout included a long blank space the prison could fill out if desired, or simply, as expected, leave blank. In the formal high Russian he had honed over 16 months imprisonment, the Journal’s Russia correspondent filled the page.
The last line submitted a proposal of his own: After his release, would Putin be willing to sit down for an interview?
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/evan-gershkovich-prisoner-exchange-ccb39ad3?st=811qp8le7r8uf5b&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
Different than UK situation. Thus NOT disqualifying (for example) for Mark Kelly.
As for the Taint of the Beltway (what you might call Anti-Potomoc Fever) fact that MK's only been US Senator since 2023 helps his cause if not total immunization.
Know folks are getting excited because Kamala Harris will name her VP on Tuesday, at campaign event in Philadelphia PA, right in Josh Shapiro's back (and front) yard.
HOWEVER, note KH's will also be stopping to campaign that day in . . . wait for it . . . Phoenix AZ.
Why? My guess is because Sun tracks east to west across the globe . . . and four time zones between Philly & Phoenix.
Concur with you re: good choices!
His mother is quite some lady too.
She won't screw up because this is more about him than her. Without the gift of an opponent clearly unable to campaign Trump is left exposed for what he is - a terrible candidate, palpably unfit for office, appealing to few outside his (depressingly large) cult.
Harris is justifying being chosen, I rate her, but I see this election (as I've always done tbf) as a Trump Loses event rather than a Dem Wins. Pretty much the only Dem losing to Trump was Joe Biden and that was purely due to declining health.
He also has these two appeals that he's almost bound to lose in his civil cases in the autumn, I think. If Trump Tower is repossessed during the campaign that will complicate things for him.
I'm almost tempted to short Shapiro at current odds. But I greened out on the VP market, and there's not enough time left to trade safely.
SSI - Look for statement shortly from JD Vance, criticizing SB for "under-performing".
She's got to defend the administration's record anyway, and Sec Pete is an absolute master of that.
Doesn't it ever occur to you that you don't actually know what's going to happen in the future?
If you'd prefer, I'll refer to Britain First in the future.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-presidential-election-is-a-toss
essentially has it as a coin toss in the rust belt states.
As to why certain people quibble about it compared to condemning the thuggish, repulsive behaviour of people who would previously happily have turned up at EDL events - who can possibly say.
What a career he has had, I will miss him.
ie they apply the polls as they are now. They don't try and predict where the polls are going. It's not forecasting.
https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Peter_the_Apostle._Detail_of_the_mosaic_in_the_Basilica_of_San_Vitale._Ravena,_Italy.jpg
Always been a fan. The greatest ever Brit (or Scot if you like) solo sportsman.
The ChiComs are trickier, but the same logic applies to them.
It may not be Stuart Broad but it's still a better swansong than most of us get. Well done Andy.
Presumably the alternative to eg the normal people of Southport who tried to show solidarity with each other, repaired the wall of the local mosque and swept up the mess after these rsoles came to town.
A good reason to look at scrapping the license fee.
https://x.com/vicderbyshire/status/1819054962774597928?s=61
excusereason for Labour to ditch the Tory BBC DG, more like.Atm that means laying Shapiro, but that might change in next hour, who knows!
Only 1 exchange but still the momentum is with her.
Andy Murray won his first title in 2006.
He's been on some journey since then. Eighteen years later and he's got 46 singles titles to his name.
That includes three Grand Slam triumphs, two Olympic golds and 14 Masters 1000 titles.
He spent 41 weeks as world number one, and claimed 29 victories over the 'Big Three' - Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.
The Scot won 739 of his 1001 ATP Tour level matches and wracked up a whopping $64,677,584 in prize money.
And I did think it peculiar that she seemed to get mote plaudits for pulling out than for winning. Sympathy, sure. But it went beyond that.
But it was an odd time.