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As predicted Jenrick is now the favourite to succeed Sunak – politicalbetting.com

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  • Oh let's see. The locals werent impressed when the previous incumbent claimed for heating his stables, so we could try having a bit straighter MP. The highest taxes in a generation didnt go down well when theres quite a bit of government waste. There has been no effeort to reverse the Blair settlement so the Tories keep trying to be "progressive" which deosnt work. Cur back the number of laws, stop no win no fee, and free up the economic environment to let a bit of entrepreneurialism back in to the economy. Weve discussed houses to death on the board, but you didnt build any because you made it too hard to do, ut not having young people on the housing ladder kills your future pool of voters. Build house build infrastructure and try to be a first world nation again. I could also give you comments on defenee, migration( control it ) and environment but it will only bore the tits off you.

    You should also have a pact with Reform, Reform can win seats in place the Tories will never reach. So pretending you can win in WWC seats is pointless, let Farage go shit stirring on Labour while you refocus on Blue wall. As my good mate Adolf found out fighting a war on two fronts is a mugs game.

    I coul go on but Ive got 5 years of Labour failure to laugh at so theres no rush.

    Why do you think people vote Tory in WWC seats when there is the chance to vote for Reform?

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    Sandpit said:

    Last comment for tonight as need to go and get dinner for the wife.

    But an illustration that there’s two sides of American politics, and the Deplorables are now pushing back on the Wierd.

    https://comicallyincorrect.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/weirred-ci-1080-1050x750.jpg

    Credit: https://x.com/afbranco/status/1818671580479996252

    Meanwhile, #IStandWithAngelaCarini is trending no.1 worldwide, and the Olympics are about to get swallowed by the culture war.
    https://x.com/riley_gaines_/status/1818979704319156500
    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1818993613113634982

    An 'attack' that rather gets dissipated by the GOP's attitudes towards women's rights when it comes to contraception, abortion and IVF.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999

    I quite like the fact that Cleverly got his degree in hospitality management studies.
    Not so much if he majored on "Fawlty Towers"...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831

    I quite like the fact that Cleverly got his degree in hospitality management studies.
    Down there with media studies?
  • Andrew Bailey and Rachel Reeves are economic terrorists.

    Britain’s biggest banks slumped on the stock market this afternoon after the Bank of England cut interest rates.

    NatWest lost 8pc, HSBC dropped 6.5pc and Lloyds fell 5.7pc. The banks were among the biggest fallers among the FTSE 100, which fell 1pc.

    Lower rates could weigh on interest margins, a key source of income for lenders.

    The pessimism towards banks was also felt in continental Europea. Share prices across the European banking sector dropped 4.5pc.

    The losses were fuelled by French banking giant Societe Generale, which tumbled almost 9pc after it cut its guidance for income from French retail lending.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/01/ftse-100-markets-latest-shell-next-barclays-interest-rates/
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756

    Why do you think people vote Tory in WWC seats when there is the chance to vote for Reform?

    old style party loyalty, but thats increasingly on the wane.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,198
    eek said:

    Reform voters want a return to a past that is no longer possible - shops can only exist if there is appropriate spare cash to keep them going and in an awful lot of reform voting areas that cash doesn't exist.

    We went to Redcar last night because the weather was decent. When you walk along the sea front and see that another few shops have closed it does get rather depression.
    I'm not sure whose spare cash you mean, but I don't think I agree. It is natural for landlords to want to rent their properties to avoid paying to maintain them without an income. That should mean there is never a signficant amount of empty high street stock - rents should fall to meet demand. That's what has always happened in the past. Neighbourhoods have gone up and down, with posh shops replaced by more lowly shops, but there hasn't been a ghost town effect. This isn't happening now afaics because we have a big issue with pension funds being balls deep in commercial property and not wanting to accept that their assets are worth tens of millions less than they say they are. So they hang on to vastly unrealistic rents and nobody bites.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470

    Thats because we have allowed it to happen. we subsidised Jeff Bezos to kill off our retailers and screwed councils into to raising ridiculous rates bills,
    Along with

    1) the housing crisis made turning shops into accommodation an easy win. So leave them derelict until the council gives in on change of use.
    2) more importantly, the value of shops has collapsed. But castles in the sky have been built on the foundation of the value of commercial property. Often the banks have clauses preventing the landlord reducing prices…
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,304

    Oh let's see. The locals werent impressed when the previous incumbent claimed for heating his stables, so we could try having a bit straighter MP. The highest taxes in a generation didnt go down well when theres quite a bit of government waste. There has been no effeort to reverse the Blair settlement so the Tories keep trying to be "progressive" which deosnt work. Cur back the number of laws, stop no win no fee, and free up the economic environment to let a bit of entrepreneurialism back in to the economy. Weve discussed houses to death on the board, but you didnt build any because you made it too hard to do, ut not having young people on the housing ladder kills your future pool of voters. Build house build infrastructure and try to be a first world nation again. I could also give you comments on defenee, migration( control it ) and environment but it will only bore the tits off you.

    You should also have a pact with Reform, Reform can win seats in place the Tories will never reach. So pretending you can win in WWC seats is pointless, let Farage go shit stirring on Labour while you refocus on Blue wall. As my good mate Adolf found out fighting a war on two fronts is a mugs game.

    I coul go on but Ive got 5 years of Labour failure to laugh at so theres no rush.
    Thanks and common ground on housing, particularly getting more people on the housing ladder (property owning democracy and all that), but completely part company with the Farage understanding. Road to madness and extinction. And bye-bye Stratford for a very long time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831

    Why do you think people vote Tory in WWC seats when there is the chance to vote for Reform?

    Cf the Rotherham result, from which it’s clear many Tories won’t touch Reform with a barge pole.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    Along with

    1) the housing crisis made turning shops into accommodation an easy win. So leave them derelict until the council gives in on change of use.
    2) more importantly, the value of shops has collapsed. But castles in the sky have been built on the foundation of the value of commercial property. Often the banks have clauses preventing the landlord reducing prices…
    I take it no-one knows how business rates are set - hint it's based on achieved rents...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    s
    Nunu5 said:
    The shade of Dean Vernon Wormer, of UCL, cackles in the darkness..
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,304
    IanB2 said:

    Reform didn’t stand in West Dorset, safe Tory seat since the 1880s, and much good it did you…
    Hardly safe in 1997, 01, 05 and 10.....Olly L was almost a cropper.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,998
    edited August 2024
    IanB2 said:

    Cf the Rotherham result, from which it’s clear many Tories won’t touch Reform with a barge pole.

    Yep. After the Farage, Tice and Lowe comments this week, the Tories would be mad to go near Reform. It's all very well pulling out of seats to focus on the Blue Wall but what you are then telling Blue Wall voters is that you will be going into coalition with Reform post-election. That is not a vote winning message.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Musk does not stand for freedom of speech. He shuts down accounts he does not like. That is his prerogative. But he is not above the law.

    I don’t agree with everything he does, but most of what he’s banning is critism of himself and the company, rather than political philosophies. It’s not perfect, but it’s significantly better than the previous management of the platform.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,304
    Perhaps HYUFD can oblige but in how many seats were Reform second?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Sandpit said:

    I don’t agree with everything he does, but most of what he’s banning is critism of himself and the company, rather than political philosophies. It’s not perfect, but it’s significantly better than the previous management of the platform.
    Looks like your wife is going hungry tonight
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    edited August 2024
    JohnO said:

    Hardly safe in 1997, 01, 05 and 10.....Olly L was almost a cropper.
    But Tory held, throughout, all those difficult years. The definition of a safe seat is one you hold even through the difficult times. Until now.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,198
    JohnO said:

    Thanks and common ground on housing, particularly getting more people on the housing ladder (property owning democracy and all that), but completely part company with the Farage understanding. Road to madness and extinction. And bye-bye Stratford for a very long time.
    How has having a strong Lib Dem party hurt Labour? Reform and the Tories must stay separate (therein lying their strength) but would be foolish to rip each other to shreds for the same seats.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    IanB2 said:

    Reform didn’t stand in West Dorset, safe Tory seat since the 1880s, and much good it did you…
    Tory vote at 36% still compared to say just 30% in Esher and Walton?

    The Reform vote anyway is lower in LD held seats, bigger in Labour seats where the Tories were second
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278

    This was the Corbynist view as well. We won't go after Tory voters, they are scum, we'll get the non-voters to back us instead. It was not hugely successful.

    The anti-Tory party was dominant in the UK for over 20 years. It was really only finally beaten, in England at least, in 2015. That could have been the start of something. Instead, the Tories revived it and it is bigger, more ferocious, more efficiently distributed and better organised than ever. If the Tories ignore its existence or decide it can be ignored, they are not coming back to power for a very long time.

    Corbyn got 262 seats, 40% of the vote and a hung parliament in 2017.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,421
    JohnO said:

    Perhaps HYUFD can oblige but in how many seats were Reform second?

    Everywhere? 98.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    edited August 2024
    JohnO said:

    Thanks and common ground on housing, particularly getting more people on the housing ladder (property owning democracy and all that), but completely part company with the Farage understanding. Road to madness and extinction. And bye-bye Stratford for a very long time.
    I see no reason why Con Ref couldnt develop over time like Lab Coop

    Farage is an innate disrupter focus him on Labour. He is second in about 100 seats most of which are Labour and seats the conservatives have little chance of winning. No doubt blue wall tories like you dont want to be teamed up with oiks but all that says is you dont want power enough. A pact may last as long as it lasts (you happily knifed Clegg so lets not pretend theres any honour involved ) but it may be Ref soften over time and you learn to live with each other.

    But to me if you want to go back to power at national level soon you will need to leave your civil war behind and cut a deal.

    I have to say it's a sad day when the Ulsterman is saying put your balaclavas away.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    edited August 2024
    eek said:

    I take it no-one knows how business rates are set - hint it's based on achieved rents...
    Hence the castles in the sky.

    Simply - aside from so very high footfall places in some towns, most shops are worth Jack & shit.

    And Jack left town.

    The problem is that everyone has a vested interest in believing they full of geese laying golden eggs.
  • Sandpit said:

    I don’t agree with everything he does, but most of what he’s banning is critism of himself and the company, rather than political philosophies. It’s not perfect, but it’s significantly better than the previous management of the platform.

    I have never seen so much overtly racist, white supremacist content on my timeline as I have over the last few weeks. It's clear that Musk has totally given up running Twitter as a business. I guess that has set him free.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    kinabalu said:

    I think the Cons face extinction as a major party if they don't react carefully to July 4th. The LDs becoming the dominant non-Labour party in the Remainy South and Reform becoming that in the Brexity North - this could squeeze them out of the living room and into the kitchen.
    Unless the LDs become fiscally conservative Orange Book and a centre right party that won't happen and in any case would only really be in Remain seats in the South (and of course most Southern seats did still vote Leave) and lead to its social democratic voters defecting to Labour
  • HYUFD said:

    Corbyn got 262 seats, 40% of the vote and a hung parliament in 2017.

    He lost. If that's what the Tories want to do it is fine by me!

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    JohnO said:

    Perhaps HYUFD can oblige but in how many seats were Reform second?

    98 from memory
  • Your evening must read.

    How Biden gotn Evan Gershkovich home, like a plot out of a le Carre novel.

    https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/evan-gershkovich-prisoner-exchange-ccb39ad3?st=811qp8le7r8uf5b&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I have never seen so much overtly racist, white supremacist content on my timeline as I have over the last few weeks. It's clear that Musk has totally given up running Twitter as a business. I guess that has set him free.

    Well if people are saying things which are actually illegal, as opposed to merely provocative, I hope the police and the courts take an interest.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    Cookie said:

    But surely the Cons should be hoping they might come back? The Conservatives surely have to be aiming wider than just leave viters over 50.
    I agree with at least some of what JohnO says. Competence, and putting together a policy set that will appeal to younger people. That doesn't mean going all BBC3. Just recognise the aspirations of the generation who might hope to own a home and raise a family. That's what Conservatives used to do.
    For a majority yes but even if they only win back voters aged 50-65 from Labour that likely gives a hung parliament
  • JD Vance . . . the gift that keeps on giving . . . to the Democratic Party in (the) general . . . and Kamala Harris in particular . . .

    New York Times - Even as Donald Trump is trying to distance himself from the Heritage Foundation-led Project 2025, his running mate’s contribution to a new book by the project’s principal architect is complicating his efforts.

    “Dawn’s Early Light,” a forthcoming book by the Heritage Foundation’s president, Kevin D. Roberts, calling for a “second American Revolution,” features a foreword by Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, whom Trump tapped as his running mate in July.

    “In the fights that lay ahead, these ideas are an essential weapon,” Vance writes in his introduction, which was obtained and published online by The New Republic on Tuesday. The book is set for publication in September. . . .

    Will Martin, a spokesperson for Vance, wrote in an email Wednesday that “the foreword has nothing to do with Project 2025.” Vance “has plenty of disagreements with what they’re calling for,” Martin wrote, adding: “Only President Trump will set the policy agenda for the next administration.”

    In a July 5 post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that he knew “nothing” about Project 2025 and its authors. “I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal,” he wrote. In a Fox News interview last week, he described its architects as “a group of very, very conservative people,” some of whose ambitions were “absolutely ridiculous.” . . .
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,304
    IanB2 said:

    But Tory held, throughout, all those difficult years. The definition of a safe seat is one you hold even through the difficult times. Until now.
    They did but you said "safe Tory seat since the 1880s" and I merely pointed out that it demonstably wasn't for four consecutive elections,

    I see no reason why Con Ref couldnt develop over time like Lab Coop

    Farage is an innate disrupter focus him on Labour. He is second in about 100 seats most of which are Labour and seats the conservatives have little chance of winning. No doubt blue wall tories like you dont want to be teamed up with oiks but all that says is you dont want power enough. A pact may last as long as it lasts (you happily knifed Clegg so lets not pretend theres any honour involved ) but it may be Ref soften over time and you learn to live with each other.

    But to me if you want to go back to power at national level soon you will need to leave your civil war behind and cut a deal.

    I have to say it's a sad day when the Ulsterman is saying put your balaclavas away.
    Bonkers but I like you.

    Thank goodness you went to Grammar School rather than throwing rocks at Fenian Catholic oiks like my small but perfectly formed personage.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296

    But violent nonetheless, why should we have two different sets of policing standards ?
    There are grey areas of course but there is a meaningful distinction between going to a protest and going for a rumble.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    Sandpit said:

    I don’t agree with everything he does, but most of what he’s banning is critism of himself and the company, rather than political philosophies. It’s not perfect, but it’s significantly better than the previous management of the platform.
    Bullshit. Absolute bullshit.

    Musk is absolutely up Trump's backside atm, and his tweets show this. He is promoting right-wing shit at every opportunity, and his brainless followers slurp it up.

    And like fish, companies rot from the head. If you're a Twix employee, you'll know very well what Musk wants. And it isn't in any way neutral.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    edited August 2024
    HYUFD said:

    Unless the LDs become fiscally conservative Orange Book and a centre right party that won't happen and in any case would only really be in Remain seats in the South (and of course most Southern seats did still vote Leave) and lead to its social democratic voters defecting to Labour
    The state your party is in at the moment, they just need to be diligent, honest, and sensible. All the things the conduct of your MPs - and of the leaders you yourself have helped to choose - has so merrily chucked in the bin.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,973

    Your evening must read.

    How Biden gotn Evan Gershkovich home, like a plot out of a le Carre novel.

    https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/evan-gershkovich-prisoner-exchange-ccb39ad3?st=811qp8le7r8uf5b&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

    Didn’t Trump say he was the only one who could persuade Putin to send Gershkovich home? The things not necessarily turning out to the Donald’s advantage are mounting up.
  • Didn’t Trump say he was the only one who could persuade Putin to send Gershkovich home? The things not necessarily turning out to the Donald’s advantage are mounting up.
    He did.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    edited August 2024
    JohnO said:

    I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.

    In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
    Thatcher in 1979 won as she offered right wing red meat and the Labour government was unpopular and failing on the economy and got over 40% of the vote and a clear majority. Cameron offered 'hug a hoodie', as green and centrist and socially liberal an agenda as you can get in 2010 and still failed to get over 40% or a majority.

    If the right is reunited with the aim of getting rid of Labour and a Labour government unpopular at the next general election anything can happen.

    Elections are not always won by liberal centrists, even Starmer got just 33% last month, 7% less than Corbyn got in 2017 and just 1% more than Corbyn got in 2019. There was hardly a surge of enthusiasm for Starmer centrism, it was the divide on the right that gave him a landslide!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Bullshit. Absolute bullshit.

    Musk is absolutely up Trump's backside atm, and his tweets show this. He is promoting right-wing shit at every opportunity, and his brainless followers slurp it up.

    And like fish, companies rot from the head. If you're a Twix employee, you'll know very well what Musk wants. And it isn't in any way neutral.
    Okay, so who has Twitter blocked of any political significance?

    His own political views are not those of his many companies.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    JohnO said:

    They did but you said "safe Tory seat since the 1880s" and I merely pointed out that it demonstably wasn't for four consecutive elections, Bonkers but I like you.

    Thank goodness you went to Grammar School rather than throwing rocks at Fenian Catholic oiks like my small but perfectly formed personage.
    Half my rellies are catcholic I can throw stones at them any time.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497
    KnightOut said:


    Indeed. Most of the Lib Dem gains were a product of highly coordinated tactical voting by people who are first and foremost anti-Tory and who aren't there to be 'won back' because they're never going to be voting Tory in the first place.

    Comparing the increases in vote share to the LDs and to Labour in very similar, often neighbouring seats reveals a pattern of deliberate, explicit collusion on a scale never before seen.

    To pick just two not particularly standout examples:

    North Cornwall: LDs up 18%, Labour down 4%; but
    St Austell & Newquay: LDs down 0.5%, Labour up 7.5%

    Bicester & Woodstock: LDs up 12%, Labour down 0.5%; but
    Buckingham & Bletchley: LDs down 6.5%, Labour up 9%


    Nothing remotely resembling a 'Uniform Swing', and no evidence of genuine popularity for either party, just a concerted effort to vote out incumbent Tories.

    These are votes cast by transients on the basis of hate, not hope. So going after this cohort would be an absolute fools errand and a misreading of the numbers.

    So voters who stayed at home, Reform voters and even those who've never voted before who haven't bought into a life of bitter Toryphobic bile are all a more fertile source of potential votes next time.
    You call it collusion but it wasn't the tories were a shambles and needed ousting
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    Your evening must read.

    How Biden gotn Evan Gershkovich home, like a plot out of a le Carre novel.

    https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/evan-gershkovich-prisoner-exchange-ccb39ad3?st=811qp8le7r8uf5b&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

    Would we have done a deal like this? The Russian murderer isn't going to sit in a Russian prison is he? I presume it's been done for political reasons. As Bill Browder says it potentially puts critics of Putin outside of Russia at greater risk.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    kinabalu said:

    There are grey areas of course but there is a meaningful distinction between going to a protest and going for a rumble.
    Well lets see how thing pan out in Leicester when the next riot is brought together by social media. Will they arrest the muslims or the Hindus or nobody because of "comminuty relarions"

    Or is SKS just swaggering tough because he couldnt be arsed to spend more than 2 minutes with the Southport folk.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, so who has Twitter blocked of any political significance?

    His own political views are not those of his many companies.
    He sacks anyone who disagrees with him. Like many 'hype' bosses, he is surrounded by yes-men; men who know that if you do what the boss wants, you're fine. If you don't... you're not.

    As for your question: from yesterday:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/07/30/white-dudes-harris-suspended-x-twitter/
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,537

    Hence the castles in the sky.

    Simply - aside from so very high footfall places in some towns, most shops are worth Jack & shit.

    And Jack left town.

    The problem is that everyone has a vested interest in believing they full of geese laying golden eggs.
    Is there any reason why thriving high streets of the future won't be replete with nail bars, tattoo parlours and vape shops after they've seen off unfair competition from charities?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,198

    Hence the castles in the sky.

    Simply - aside from so very high footfall places in some towns, most shops are worth Jack & shit.

    And Jack left town.

    The problem is that everyone has a vested interest in believing they full of geese laying golden eggs.
    But if rents were allowed to fall to their natural level, and shops let for less or sold, a whole new cohort of shopkeepers, Mum who's always wanted to try her hand at selling candles, Uncle who'd like to have a whisky shop, become viable. In my parents town, the High Street has many empty shops, but a set of traffic lights on from the High Street where rents are far smaller is thriving.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    JD Vance . . . the gift that keeps on giving . . . to the Democratic Party in (the) general . . . and Kamala Harris in particular . . .

    New York Times - Even as Donald Trump is trying to distance himself from the Heritage Foundation-led Project 2025, his running mate’s contribution to a new book by the project’s principal architect is complicating his efforts.

    “Dawn’s Early Light,” a forthcoming book by the Heritage Foundation’s president, Kevin D. Roberts, calling for a “second American Revolution,” features a foreword by Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, whom Trump tapped as his running mate in July.

    “In the fights that lay ahead, these ideas are an essential weapon,” Vance writes in his introduction, which was obtained and published online by The New Republic on Tuesday. The book is set for publication in September. . . .

    Will Martin, a spokesperson for Vance, wrote in an email Wednesday that “the foreword has nothing to do with Project 2025.” Vance “has plenty of disagreements with what they’re calling for,” Martin wrote, adding: “Only President Trump will set the policy agenda for the next administration.”

    In a July 5 post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that he knew “nothing” about Project 2025 and its authors. “I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal,” he wrote. In a Fox News interview last week, he described its architects as “a group of very, very conservative people,” some of whose ambitions were “absolutely ridiculous.” . . .

    There is nothing funnier than watching Fascists fall out.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470

    But if rents were allowed to fall to their natural level, and shops let for less or sold, a whole new cohort of shopkeepers, Mum who's always wanted to try her hand at selling candles, Uncle who'd like to have a whisky shop, become viable. In my parents town, the High Street has many empty shops, but a set of traffic lights on from the High Street where rents are far smaller is thriving.
    Yeah


  • Sandpit said:

    Okay, so who has Twitter blocked of any political significance?

    His own political views are not those of his many companies.
    Since you asked . . .

    Washington Post (via Seattle Times) - X suspends ‘White Dudes for Harris’ account after massive fundraiser
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    He sacks anyone who disagrees with him. Like many 'hype' bosses, he is surrounded by yes-men; men who know that if you do what the boss wants, you're fine. If you don't... you're not.

    As for your question: from yesterday:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/07/30/white-dudes-harris-suspended-x-twitter/
    Something that was briefly suspended and then reinstated, which if it been from Trump four years ago would have been instantly and banned for racism and misogyny.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,421
    From the BBC:

    When arguing that the judge should impose reporting restrictions preventing Rudakubana's identification, the prosecution said the suspect had an “autism spectrum disorder diagnosis”, and that he had been “unwilling to leave the house and communicate with family for a period of time”.

    The judge allowed Rudakubana's name to be made public, saying "the balance clearly comes down in favour of the public interest".
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,304
    HYUFD said:

    Thatcher in 1979 won as she offered right wing red meat and the Labour government was unpopular and failing on the economy and got over 40% of the vote and a clear majority. Cameron offered 'hug a hoodie', as green and centrist and socially liberal an agenda as you can get in 2010 and still failed to get over 40% or a majority.

    If the right is reunited with the aim of getting rid of Labour and a Labour government unpopular at the next general election anything can happen.

    Elections are not always won by liberal centrists, even Starmer got just 33% last month, 7% less than Corbyn got in 2017 and just 1% more than Corbyn got in 2019. There was hardly a surge of enthusiasm for Starmer centrism, it was the divide on the right that gave him a landslide!
    Were you even alive in 1979? I was actively campaigning then and was elected a Councillor in that election. Your depiction of that era is seriously flawed. The Tory manifesto was hardly extreme and behind Callagahan and Healey, the far left of the Labour Party was in the ascendant. Mrs T was supported by many 'moderates'. With respect, you are far too simplistic in your analyses.

    And the mantra of 'uniting the right' where the putative partner is out to destroy the Conservative Party is one that should be rejected by our members.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296

    Yep. After the Farage, Tice and Lowe comments this week, the Tories would be mad to go near Reform. It's all very well pulling out of seats to focus on the Blue Wall but what you are then telling Blue Wall voters is that you will be going into coalition with Reform post-election. That is not a vote winning message.
    The Cons need to knuckle down and do the hard yards to win back the centre. If they do that it might take a while but there'll be a Tory PM again.

    Labour have a big majority but also a big vulnerability. They've made it totemic to achieve high growth when it's largely outside their power whether that happens and it probably won't.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497
    JohnO said:

    I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.

    In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
    I voted tory until 2010, you wont be ever getting me back frankly simple as that. I rather not vote than vote for your party of idiots
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,380
    tlg86 said:

    From the BBC:

    When arguing that the judge should impose reporting restrictions preventing Rudakubana's identification, the prosecution said the suspect had an “autism spectrum disorder diagnosis”, and that he had been “unwilling to leave the house and communicate with family for a period of time”.

    The judge allowed Rudakubana's name to be made public, saying "the balance clearly comes down in favour of the public interest".

    Interesting that it was the prosecution asking, presumably as well as the defence.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    Well lets see how thing pan out in Leicester when the next riot is brought together by social media. Will they arrest the muslims or the Hindus or nobody because of "comminuty relarions"

    Or is SKS just swaggering tough because he couldnt be arsed to spend more than 2 minutes with the Southport folk.
    Both Hindu and Islamic rioters were nicked following the disturbances in Leicester 2 years ago, though as often is the case from video and later raids rather than inflaming the situation on the night.

    SKS was right to keep a respectful silence at Southport. There is a time and place for political heckling and banter but not at the time of laying flowers immediately after the incident.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Do we have any inkling of a motive regards this Stockport killer? His appearance in court suggests he had an agenda. Or just a pure sadist?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    carnforth said:

    Interesting that it was the prosecution asking, presumably as well as the defence.
    Possibly worried that naming him would lead to a social media firestorm regardless of sub judice and undermine any chance of a fair trial?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296

    Didn’t Trump say he was the only one who could persuade Putin to send Gershkovich home? The things not necessarily turning out to the Donald’s advantage are mounting up.
    But I suppose the Donald - who is "not like normal politicians" - could have done it with a single phone call. No need for all these complex machinations.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296

    JD Vance . . . the gift that keeps on giving . . . to the Democratic Party in (the) general . . . and Kamala Harris in particular . . .

    New York Times - Even as Donald Trump is trying to distance himself from the Heritage Foundation-led Project 2025, his running mate’s contribution to a new book by the project’s principal architect is complicating his efforts.

    “Dawn’s Early Light,” a forthcoming book by the Heritage Foundation’s president, Kevin D. Roberts, calling for a “second American Revolution,” features a foreword by Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, whom Trump tapped as his running mate in July.

    “In the fights that lay ahead, these ideas are an essential weapon,” Vance writes in his introduction, which was obtained and published online by The New Republic on Tuesday. The book is set for publication in September. . . .

    Will Martin, a spokesperson for Vance, wrote in an email Wednesday that “the foreword has nothing to do with Project 2025.” Vance “has plenty of disagreements with what they’re calling for,” Martin wrote, adding: “Only President Trump will set the policy agenda for the next administration.”

    In a July 5 post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that he knew “nothing” about Project 2025 and its authors. “I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal,” he wrote. In a Fox News interview last week, he described its architects as “a group of very, very conservative people,” some of whose ambitions were “absolutely ridiculous.” . . .

    Ah a Golden Dawn. Yes, we get it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    Sandpit said:

    I don’t agree with everything he does, but most of what he’s banning is critism of himself and the company, rather than political philosophies. It’s not perfect, but it’s significantly better than the previous management of the platform.
    With all due respect, when you're shutting down criticism of yourself - particularly if you are donating $40+m a month a political campaign - then you are at the very least a thin skinned hypocrite.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,421
    ydoethur said:

    Possibly worried that naming him would lead to a social media firestorm regardless of sub judice and undermine any chance of a fair trial?
    I suspect the judge isn't too worried because of the circumstances. I'm not sure what could happen that would allow the defence to get the case thrown out.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    edited August 2024

    JD Vance . . . the gift that keeps on giving . . . to the Democratic Party in (the) general . . . and Kamala Harris in particular . . .

    New York Times - Even as Donald Trump is trying to distance himself from the Heritage Foundation-led Project 2025, his running mate’s contribution to a new book by the project’s principal architect is complicating his efforts.

    “Dawn’s Early Light,” a forthcoming book by the Heritage Foundation’s president, Kevin D. Roberts, calling for a “second American Revolution,” features a foreword by Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, whom Trump tapped as his running mate in July.

    “In the fights that lay ahead, these ideas are an essential weapon,” Vance writes in his introduction, which was obtained and published online by The New Republic on Tuesday. The book is set for publication in September. . . .

    Will Martin, a spokesperson for Vance, wrote in an email Wednesday that “the foreword has nothing to do with Project 2025.” Vance “has plenty of disagreements with what they’re calling for,” Martin wrote, adding: “Only President Trump will set the policy agenda for the next administration.”

    In a July 5 post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that he knew “nothing” about Project 2025 and its authors. “I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal,” he wrote. In a Fox News interview last week, he described its architects as “a group of very, very conservative people,” some of whose ambitions were “absolutely ridiculous.” . . .

    That's truly awful from Vance. It should be 'lie' not 'lay' of course:

    “In the fights that lie ahead, these ideas are an essential weapon”.

    What a bozo.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 981
    tlg86 said:

    Everywhere? 98.
    Whilst thats decent, it's really not that much
  • ydoethur said:

    There is nothing funnier than watching Fascists fall out.
    Harsh on Fascists.

    This is just the falling-out of incompetent grifters.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137

    Do we have any inkling of a motive regards this Stockport killer? His appearance in court suggests he had an agenda. Or just a pure sadist?

    How does his appearance in court suggest he had an agenda? (Genuine question - I didn't get any sense of that from the reports)

  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,402

    I'm not sure whose spare cash you mean, but I don't think I agree. It is natural for landlords to want to rent their properties to avoid paying to maintain them without an income. That should mean there is never a signficant amount of empty high street stock - rents should fall to meet demand. That's what has always happened in the past. Neighbourhoods have gone up and down, with posh shops replaced by more lowly shops, but there hasn't been a ghost town effect. This isn't happening now afaics because we have a big issue with pension funds being balls deep in commercial property and not wanting to accept that their assets are worth tens of millions less than they say they are. So they hang on to vastly unrealistic rents and nobody bites.
    Yes retail shops are definitely yesterday's technology in most cases. We need to speed up the end of the high street, by making it much easier for shops to be converted back to residences. Of course the Luddites will protest for a while, and invoke lots of sentimental drivel to hold back progress, but hopefully they will be ignored.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    kinabalu said:

    Ah a Golden Dawn. Yes, we get it.
    To be fair, at least we've moved on from golden showers.
  • Do we have any inkling of a motive regards this Stockport killer? His appearance in court suggests he had an agenda. Or just a pure sadist?

    Stockport?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137

    Stockport?
    Now we know Frank handles the mirror's twitter account!
  • Selebian said:

    How does his appearance in court suggest he had an agenda? (Genuine question - I didn't get any sense of that from the reports)

    Suspect this might be key:
    tlg86 said:

    From the BBC:

    When arguing that the judge should impose reporting restrictions preventing Rudakubana's identification, the prosecution said the suspect had an “autism spectrum disorder diagnosis”, and that he had been “unwilling to leave the house and communicate with family for a period of time”.

    The judge allowed Rudakubana's name to be made public, saying "the balance clearly comes down in favour of the public interest".

    No grand narrative. Just a young man not coping with the world, with tragic consequences.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    Sandpit said:

    Something that was briefly suspended and then reinstated, which if it been from Trump four years ago would have been instantly and banned for racism and misogyny.
    Oh, come off it, it's got bells on. You asked for an example, and I gave you one.

    And it's odd how, when it came back, it was initially in permanent read-only mode before the stink caused them to give full access back.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497
    HYUFD said:

    Thatcher in 1979 won as she offered right wing red meat and the Labour government was unpopular and failing on the economy and got over 40% of the vote and a clear majority. Cameron offered 'hug a hoodie', as green and centrist and socially liberal an agenda as you can get in 2010 and still failed to get over 40% or a majority.

    If the right is reunited with the aim of getting rid of Labour and a Labour government unpopular at the next general election anything can happen.

    Elections are not always won by liberal centrists, even Starmer got just 33% last month, 7% less than Corbyn got in 2017 and just 1% more than Corbyn got in 2019. There was hardly a surge of enthusiasm for Starmer centrism, it was the divide on the right that gave him a landslide!
    As a right winger can I just say I don't want anything to do with the tory party, you are a bunch of cupids as mr everett used to say. I would love your party to die
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    JohnO said:

    Were you even alive in 1979? I was actively campaigning then and was elected a Councillor in that election. Your depiction of that era is seriously flawed. The Tory manifesto was hardly extreme and behind Callagahan and Healey, the far left of the Labour Party was in the ascendant. Mrs T was supported by many 'moderates'. With respect, you are far too simplistic in your analyses.

    And the mantra of 'uniting the right' where the putative partner is out to destroy the Conservative Party is one that should be rejected by our members.
    Nonetheless in 1979 Callaghan was the centrist leader, Thatcher the rightwinger. Sunak was also on the centrist wing of the Tory party and lost this year.

    In 2019 Boris did a pact with Farage and won a Tory landslide, as long as we have FPTP Farage needs a deal with the Tories to gain seats as much as the Tories need a largely clear run from Reform to gain seats. After all Labour only put up paper candidates with no central support in LD target seats this year and the LDs only put up paper candidates in Labour target seats too
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    Harsh on Fascists.

    This is just the falling-out of incompetent grifters.
    Are you implying Fascists are not incompetent grifters?

    The KDF and the career of Clara Pettacci say otherwise.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    ydoethur said:

    Possibly worried that naming him would lead to a social media firestorm regardless of sub judice and undermine any chance of a fair trial?
    I sense the chances of the case being dismissed because of the impossibility of a fair trial are slim to none.

    And Slim has just left town.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    kinabalu said:

    Early signs of dementia:

    Poor memory
    Struggling for the right word
    Loss of spatial awareness
    Negotiating big ticket prisoner swaps in the byzantine arena of wartime diplomacy
    Trump's only got three of those, so that's encouraging. That's another cognitive test he's passed.
  • Nunu5 said:
    City and St George's are nowhere near each other, academically or geographically. One's a medical school in Tooting and the other's not a medical school in the City. What's going on?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137

    Suspect this might be key: No grand narrative. Just a young man not coping with the world, with tragic consequences.
    Yep, that little bit of detail suggests maybe no agenda (of course there may be more to come out). I wondered from frank booth's comment whether i'd missed something significant
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Oh, come off it, it's got bells on. You asked for an example, and I gave you one.

    And it's odd how, when it came back, it was initially in permanent read-only mode before the stink caused them to give full access back.
    Oh okay, so under New Twitter these things get sorted out within hours, whereas under Old Twitter these things would run for months on end or result in permanent bans.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Selebian said:

    How does his appearance in court suggest he had an agenda? (Genuine question - I didn't get any sense of that from the reports)

    Barely showed his face. Could be many things I suppose.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    Do we have any inkling of a motive regards this Stockport killer? His appearance in court suggests he had an agenda. Or just a pure sadist?

    What happened in Stockport?
  • Them and many many others.

    The oil price is rocketing with the latest middle east goings on. You can forget interest rate cuts any time soon.

    In fact with the Tory inflationary actions like double digit minimum wage rises and Ldbour inflationary actions like doctors 22% pensionsble pay rises, the next interest rate change may well be up.


    That aged well.....

    I think its a bloody stupid decision though, noting US held so they are now 0.5% above ours and Japan tightened.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    DougSeal said:

    What happened in Stockport?
    Don't ask.

    What happened in Stockport stays in Stockport.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    Hey so it's YORKSHIRE DAY. I hope people realize this and are doing something apt.

    I'm drinking a can of John Smiths and being taciturn with the wife.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497
    kinabalu said:

    Hey so it's YORKSHIRE DAY. I hope people realize this and are doing something apt.

    I'm drinking a can of John Smiths and being taciturn with the wife.

    kinabalu said:

    Hey so it's YORKSHIRE DAY. I hope people realize this and are doing something apt.

    I'm drinking a can of John Smiths and being taciturn with the wife.

    Have you also hidden a ferret in your trousers?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    Suspect this might be key: No grand narrative. Just a young man not coping with the world, with tragic consequences.
    It matches with the descriptions from the village that no one saw him, though they did see his parents.

    Perhaps lockdown at a critical stage of social development was a factor, though certainly isn't an excuse.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    edited August 2024
    kinabalu said:

    Hey so it's YORKSHIRE DAY. I hope people realize this and are doing something apt.

    I'm drinking a can of John Smiths and being taciturn with the wife.

    John Smith's? You're lucky. All I can afford is a can of cat's piss.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,561
    DougSeal said:

    What happened in Stockport?
    Robinsons Brewery Tour
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Southport not Stockport. I'll hang my head in shame.
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202
    kjh said:

    If elected I think the painting over of Mickey Mouse will come to haunt him.

    Quite ironic, really, given that he’s a Mickey Mouse politician with truly Goofy policies.
    kyf_100 said:

    On topic, as I mentioned the other day...

    Jenrick was utterly ineffectual as housing minister, doing absolutely sod all for leaseholders affected by the cladding scandal (pretty much anyone living in a building more than 5 storeys high). Described as "no help at all" by 90% of leaseholders in a survey by the leasehold knowledge partnership.

    He was involved in a highly controversial planning decision involving Richard Desmond, who made a subsatantial donation to the Conservatives two weeks after planning was approved.

    He charged the taxpayer £100,000 in rent and council tax for his THIRD home. That's right. Third home. To quote the Times, "Travel expenses suggest that Jenrick rarely spends an entire weekend at the property..." ..."A government minister said last night: “It’s a bit odd to make the taxpayer fund your constituency home when you’ve got all that money. It doesn’t look good.”

    He broke lockdown rules twice, travelling 150 miles to his his second home. Considering it was rule breaking that did for Boris, is Jenrick really a suitable candidate for leader?

    Oh, and the thing he's most famous for? Having a mural of Mickey Mouse and Baloo from Jungle Book in a children's asylum centre painted over. Regardless for the reason (e.g. copyright), the man is mostly known by the general public for comic-book, cartoon-villain levels of cruelty. That is when they remember him at all.

    So I put it to you. If Robert Jenrick is the answer, then what on earth is the question?

    Sideshow Bob is a walking, talking greatest hits collection of all the reasons people detest the Tories:

    - lockdown hypocrite
    - Rwanda deportation fanatic
    - out-of-touch squillionaire
    - best known for a policy so nasty (Duluxgate) that even *Nigel Farage* described it as “a bit mean”
    - overenthusiastic expenses claimant
    - overruler of best practice, established procedure and official advice to force through planning permission for a controversial development project overseen by a wealthy Tory donor (and ex-pornographer to boot)
    - recipient of personal donations of questionable legality from an Australian hedge fund magnate and a tax-dodging Tel Aviv-born billionaire (a family friend)
    - protégé of Suella Braverman
    - demonstrably incompetent record in government
  • I see Mr Starmer only takes the knee to certain sets of rioters and is very cross about other sets of rioters.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,421

    Suspect this might be key: No grand narrative. Just a young man not coping with the world, with tragic consequences.
    That's not going to wash. A Nottingham-style attack in the street, maybe, but not this.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497
    Foxy said:

    It matches with the descriptions from the village that no one saw him, though they did see his parents.

    Perhaps lockdown at a critical stage of social development was a factor, though certainly isn't an excuse.
    Perhaps if people stopped trying to make excuses for evil bastards and instead told them they are evil bastards instead of handing them excuses "Its not you fault because you (came from a broken family/were in lockdown at a certain period/ too poor/ etc) delete as applicable"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999
    kinabalu said:

    Ah a Golden Dawn. Yes, we get it.
    Do you get a Golden Reign following that Golden Dawn?
This discussion has been closed.