LAB 38% (-3) CON 18% (-) REF 17% (+3) LD 11% (-1) GRE 7% (+2) SNP 3% (+1) OTH 6% (-1)
F/w 26th June - 2nd July. Changes vs. 26th June 2024.
If thats the result it would likely be tories less than 59 seats. But generally if you look back to 1997 the tories final poll is 3 to 4% above their lowest share.
That's triggered me to go and have a look at the final polls versus the actual shares (not exactly what you're covering here, though):
1997 Final poll average from each company: Con 30.8, Lab 46.8, LD 16.4 Result: Con 30.7, Lab 43.2, LD 16.8
2001 Final poll average from each company: Con 31.0, Lab 45.2, LD 17.4 Result: Con 31.7, Lab 40.7, LD 18.3
2005 Final poll average from each company: Con 32.3, Lab 38.0, LD 22.0 Result: Con 32.3, Lab 36.2, LD 22.7
2010 Final poll average from each company: Con 35.6, Lab 27.6, LD 27.4 Result: Con 36.9, Lab 29.7, LD 23.6
2015 Final poll average from each company: Con 33.7, Lab 33.1, LD 8.8, UKIP 12.7 Result: Con 37.8, Lab 31.2, LD 8.1, UKIP 12.9
2017 Final poll average from each company: Con 43.2, Lab 36.3, LD 7.7, UKIP 4.4 Result [GB only]: Con 43.5, Lab 41.0, LD 7.6, UKIP 1.9
2019 Final poll average from each company: Con 43.2, Lab 33.5, LD 11.9, Brexit 3.5 Result [GB only]: Con 44.7, Lab 33.0, LD 11.8, Brexit 4.0
[apologies for the switch to GB only towards the end, not precisely comparing apples to apples]
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
He is a bit of a weirdo. But this can be fine. Thatcher was deeply weird, for example. The issue is more that he doesn't understand how weird he comes across (like his unfortunate factory visit Q&As). He is the most David Brent-ish PM we've had.
Also - 'sandwich' is more a format than a meal. Like saying 'My favourite band is R&B'.
Awful suspicion he means a £4.49 meal deal with diet coke and a KitKat.
£3.50, I think? Up from £3 but still value with a capital V.
You sure know your ready meals. Higher price is service stations and airports, perhaps
Following last week's bombshell that Aldi in the UK is actually part of Aldi Süd, rather than the more logical Aldi Nord, here is this week's useless fact:
In Germany there are 2 supermarket chains called Netto: Netto (with dog) and Netto (without dog).
This is a bit different to Aldi Nord and Aldi Süd, who coordinate with each other and have divided Germany between them. Above a certain latitude you only find Aldi Nord, and below it Aldi Süd. A bit like the 38th Parallel in Korea or the Mason-Dixon line. I'm not sure on what basis, but they have also divided the rest of Europe into spheres of influence.
The 2 Nettos are completely different companies, Netto (with dog) is owned by a Danish company, Netto (without dog) by a German supermarket chain. I don't think I have ever seen Netto (with dog) outside of the former East Germany, but there are places there that have both and you have to say 'Netto with/without dog' to specify which supermarket you mean.
I realise Netto (with dog) no longer operates in the UK so this may be of slightly less interest than the 2 Aldis revelation, but I promise this is more interesting than next week's useless fact (which will be about Lidl).
Can you also do Adidas vs Puma please
That was going to be the week after. I can also do the various inventors and innovators in the history of the Dübel (rawlplug).
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Makes for a deeply unsatisfying set of sandwich options...although it avoids the spectacle of him eating a bacon sarnie that has proved so toxic in the past.
Does he eat fish? Prawn sandwiches are very tasty.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
I think Rishi is creating the idea that Rishi works so hard he only has time to grab a casual Greggs on the go. Unlike Mr Lardarse Starmer who knocks of for his tea at 6pm on a Friday and arrives back at his desk after lunch on Monday.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
'This cruelty-free vegan “foie gras” is SO buttery, creamy, and surprisingly close to the real one! It is prepared from raw cashews and infused with aromatics like miso, nutritional yeast, tahini, and truffle oil.'
But without that delicious tang of cruelty so vital to Tory epicureans. Perhaps if it was made by refugee children their tears may replace that vital ingredient.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
It's sort of slightly endearing, unless he was just scrabbling around in his brain for the last thing he could remember eating that wasn't posh, and alighted on sarnies.
lol, Yes, he was yearning to scream “Lobster Thermidor” and his team are miming desperately behind the questioner the act of eating a sandwich. Luckily none mimed eating a baguette as he could have interpreted that in a very unfortunate way.
Interesting point for discussion there.
If Sunak had interpreted his minders as indicating "fellatio", who would he have specified as the donor?
Irrelevant. The key thing is he would have blown it.
Assuming the polls are roughly right the combined Tory and Labour share of the vote will be at its lowest level in memory. Lower than the 65% in 2010. So a quick thread 🧵on the huge electoral distortions that will come from our first past the post (FPTP) system tomorrow. 1/n
Good stuff. Worth a look. I support FPTP, though I would add the AV tweak to give long term newbies a chance to build up.
But, IMHO, this election looks set to be a nice example of FPTP. It's obvious that the key facts in public opinion currently are: 1) About 80% of voters want the Tories out of government and told to go away until they have grown up 2) The great majority of voters want broadly centrist, non racist, non fascist, non hard left, social democrat government.
FPTP will deliver both these things effortlessly. Starmer won't be in discussions with the BNP, SF, DUP, and SWP and an Islamist Front and George to form a rickety government. Good.
How do you place a low risk bet on tomorrow's G.E. just for a bit of fun.
My suggestion on one way would be to back the Tories over two x 50 seat bands, i.e. to win 50 - 99 seats or 100 - 149 seats. Based on staking say £20 in total (your call of course) and based on the current odds available, these two bets would be placed as follows:
On the basis of just about all recent polling, one or other of these two x 50 seat band bets will prove successful, thereby providing a virtually identical profit in either case of £5.53/£5.59. That's a return in 24 hours of 27.8%, which has to beat working for a living!
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
'This cruelty-free vegan “foie gras” is SO buttery, creamy, and surprisingly close to the real one! It is prepared from raw cashews and infused with aromatics like miso, nutritional yeast, tahini, and truffle oil.'
I think turnout will be low. I think Labour will have a record landslide in seats. I think that landslide will come on less that 38% of the vote. I think the SNP will hold the majority of Scottish seats. I think Liz Truss will lose her seat I think there will be recounts in at least 20 seats. I think Farage will win Clacton with a bigger majority than Rishi Sunak in Richmond and Northallerton. I think there will be very different voting patterns in different regions, with the Lib Dems doing well in Wessex and generally badly in the Midlands and industrial north and North East. I think Labour sweep the red wall, but have some surprise losses in areas with high ethnic minority voters. Some losses in blue wall seats, but Tories still comfortably ahead of Lib Dems in seats numbers. Reform win 5, Greens win 3. We will see in about 36 hours.
I agree with all of that except Reform 5 seats. I think 1 or 2.
How many recounts do we usually have? I must say I fear that the election won’t be as disastrous for the Conservatives as we are (nearly) all expecting (hoping)!
Although there aren’t nearly as many Conservative window posters as usual, locally, and a lot more Labour ones.
This is an election not to share your Tory vote intention with anybody but the polling booth.
@RepRaskin on the Democratic ticket: "I know this is a moving target. It's got to happen quickly. But I can guarantee you—there will be massive unity and focus on that task when we get to the end of this process. And it's happening very quickly." https://x.com/allinwithchris/status/1808301888187625982
Perhaps the Supreme Court decision has focused minds a little more? Might this actually be a moment when people put personal vanity to one side and act in the collective interest?
But if you have been disfranchised by the selection of election date you certainly have every right to moan.
Or, you could argue that anybody booking a holiday without sorting out a postal vote in the ample time since the election has been called has decided to disenfranchise themselves...
That's simply not true.
The postal votes cannot be issued until all candidates have been confirmed.
Which was weeks ago. Apart from those councils where there have been delivery cock-ups, most postals have been out for two weeks.
And the application could have been made once the election was called.
My son applied an hour or two after Sunak removed his suit to send to the dry cleaners.
It might have arrived on Monday but he is working for the BBC in Wrexham this week. He phoned up every day last week and the week before.
On the low youth turnout and "the young shouldn't moan if they can't be bothered to vote".
Unfair. I expect the ones who will loudly moan online about government capture by the boomers are those who did in fact vote. So they have the right to moan.
Immediately off topic there's a bfx market on month Sunak ceases to lead Tory party. I lost too much money on Johnson's departure to risk any on this but my guess is there's so much hatred of him in the party that he may jump on Friday, possibly not even staying as caretaker
I suppose it’s just worth a wait to see who the survivors are - if they are all Suellaites then he’s doomed on day 2 but if they are all Dowdenites then they might keep him in situ for a while whilst they have a proper debate/horse trading session before any final leadership election.
If, as looks likely, CCHQ parachuted a lot of Rishi friendly candidates in and they all somehow manage to win then the party will have a very different complexion from what some fear and might not go down the loony rabbit hole as others hope they do.
Having a looksee, I have put a fun money £3 on "2025 or later", at odds of 36.
Purely on the possibility that he will be a Michael Howard, not a David Cameron. That's assuming he keeps his seat.
I'd guess conference in October is when they'd want to crown their new leader. That was the plan when David Cameron resigned but withdrawals by Boris and Andrea Leadsom meant Theresa May was in place, and Cameron out, weeks earlier.
ETA speaking of Dowden, then subject to the good voters of Hertsmere, he will be taking on Angela Rayner in the first PMQs as the Prime Minister will be at a Nato summit.
I think turnout will be low. I think Labour will have a record landslide in seats. I think that landslide will come on less that 38% of the vote. I think the SNP will hold the majority of Scottish seats. I think Liz Truss will lose her seat I think there will be recounts in at least 20 seats. I think Farage will win Clacton with a bigger majority than Rishi Sunak in Richmond and Northallerton. I think there will be very different voting patterns in different regions, with the Lib Dems doing well in Wessex and generally badly in the Midlands and industrial north and North East. I think Labour sweep the red wall, but have some surprise losses in areas with high ethnic minority voters. Some losses in blue wall seats, but Tories still comfortably ahead of Lib Dems in seats numbers. Reform win 5, Greens win 3. We will see in about 36 hours.
I agree with all of that except Reform 5 seats. I think 1 or 2.
How many recounts do we usually have? I must say I fear that the election won’t be as disastrous for the Conservatives as we are (nearly) all expecting (hoping)!
Although there aren’t nearly as many Conservative window posters as usual, locally, and a lot more Labour ones.
There are generally two types of recount, a full recount and a bundle check, so it depends which you include in the question. There are probably usually about 30 recounts if you include bundle checks. There are also usually a few recounts to see if a candidate has reached 5% or not.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Did nobody think to ask him whether it was a Greggs sandwich or a Gail’s sandwich?
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Makes for a deeply unsatisfying set of sandwich options...although it avoids the spectacle of him eating a bacon sarnie that has proved so toxic in the past.
Does he eat fish? Prawn sandwiches are very tasty.
There are also Marmite sandwiches.
Sandwiches involving high quality bread and stilton can be a food of the gods, take moments to do and cost little compared with petrol station's finest.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
I think Rishi is creating the idea that Rishi works so hard he only has time to grab a casual Greggs on the go. Unlike Mr Lardarse Starmer who knocks of for his tea at 6pm on a Friday and arrives back at his desk after lunch on Monday.
Or beret-wearing Angela Rayner who starts with a terrine campagnarde and green salad, moves on to blanquette de veau mopped up with a regularly topped up basket of baguette, zips through a cheese course and finishes with a creme brulee and a coffee, all washed down with a little 250ml carafe of vin de pays.
@RepRaskin on the Democratic ticket: "I know this is a moving target. It's got to happen quickly. But I can guarantee you—there will be massive unity and focus on that task when we get to the end of this process. And it's happening very quickly." https://x.com/allinwithchris/status/1808301888187625982
Perhaps the Supreme Court decision has focused minds a little more? Might this actually be a moment when people put personal vanity to one side and act in the collective interest?
"People" = Biden family?
No sign of it happening.
I was thinking more of senior elected democrats. If enough of them are insistent that Biden goes could he really hang on?
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Makes for a deeply unsatisfying set of sandwich options...although it avoids the spectacle of him eating a bacon sarnie that has proved so toxic in the past.
Does he eat fish? Prawn sandwiches are very tasty.
There are also Marmite sandwiches.
Sandwiches involving high quality bread and stilton can be a food of the gods, take moments to do and cost little compared with petrol station's finest.
Had decent bread and hummus from the community shop yesterday with sliced gherkins and tomatoes with coarsely shredded fresh basil.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
I think Rishi is creating the idea that Rishi works so hard he only has time to grab a casual Greggs on the go. Unlike Mr Lardarse Starmer who knocks of for his tea at 6pm on a Friday and arrives back at his desk after lunch on Monday.
Or beret-wearing Angela Rayner who starts with a terrine campagnarde and green salad, moves on to blanquette de veau mopped up with a regularly topped up basket of baguette, zips through a cheese course and finishes with a creme brulee and a coffee, all washed down with a little 250ml carafe of vin de pays.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Makes for a deeply unsatisfying set of sandwich options...although it avoids the spectacle of him eating a bacon sarnie that has proved so toxic in the past.
Does he eat fish? Prawn sandwiches are very tasty.
There are also Marmite sandwiches.
Sandwiches involving high quality bread and stilton can be a food of the gods, take moments to do and cost little compared with petrol station's finest.
Had decent bread and hummus from the community shop yesterday with sliced gherkins and tomatoes with coarsely shredded fresh basil.
Hummus and sun-dried tomatoes make for a godly combo on bread.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Makes for a deeply unsatisfying set of sandwich options...although it avoids the spectacle of him eating a bacon sarnie that has proved so toxic in the past.
Does he eat fish? Prawn sandwiches are very tasty.
There are also Marmite sandwiches.
Sandwiches involving high quality bread and stilton can be a food of the gods, take moments to do and cost little compared with petrol station's finest.
Had decent bread and hummus from the community shop yesterday with sliced gherkins and tomatoes with coarsely shredded fresh basil.
Hummus and sun-dried tomatoes make for a godly combo on bread.
That too, though the doubly oily nature is a bit much for me - prefer my SDT for evening starter on bread.
Difficult to believe Uttlesford council have messed up their postal vote arrangements in the way they have.
I don't suppose councils have a whole lot of spare staff and money, in holiday season, to react instantly to Mr Sunak's decision.
Yes although it looks like 99% of councils have done the job okay.
I think the period from close of nominations to the election should have been a week longer, aka the election should have been on the 11th not the 4th.
I also think it would have worked to the Conservatives advantage, another week and Farage would probably have faded more than he will have.
Difficult to believe Uttlesford council have messed up their postal vote arrangements in the way they have.
I don't suppose councils have a whole lot of spare staff and money, in holiday season, to react instantly to Mr Sunak's decision.
Yes although it looks like 99% of councils have done the job okay.
I think the period from close of nominations to the election should have been a week longer, aka the election should have been on the 11th not the 4th.
I also think it would have worked to the Conservatives advantage, another week and Farage would probably have faded more than he will have.
Another week and even more people would have been away!
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
I think Rishi is creating the idea that Rishi works so hard he only has time to grab a casual Greggs on the go. Unlike Mr Lardarse Starmer who knocks of for his tea at 6pm on a Friday and arrives back at his desk after lunch on Monday.
Or beret-wearing Angela Rayner who starts with a terrine campagnarde and green salad, moves on to blanquette de veau mopped up with a regularly topped up basket of baguette, zips through a cheese course and finishes with a creme brulee and a coffee, all washed down with a little 250ml carafe of vin de pays.
Can you do charming arty French films once you have starred in Basic Instinct?
I think turnout will be low. I think Labour will have a record landslide in seats. I think that landslide will come on less that 38% of the vote. I think the SNP will hold the majority of Scottish seats. I think Liz Truss will lose her seat I think there will be recounts in at least 20 seats. I think Farage will win Clacton with a bigger majority than Rishi Sunak in Richmond and Northallerton. I think there will be very different voting patterns in different regions, with the Lib Dems doing well in Wessex and generally badly in the Midlands and industrial north and North East. I think Labour sweep the red wall, but have some surprise losses in areas with high ethnic minority voters. Some losses in blue wall seats, but Tories still comfortably ahead of Lib Dems in seats numbers. Reform win 5, Greens win 3. We will see in about 36 hours.
I agree with all of that except Reform 5 seats. I think 1 or 2.
How many recounts do we usually have? I must say I fear that the election won’t be as disastrous for the Conservatives as we are (nearly) all expecting (hoping)!
Although there aren’t nearly as many Conservative window posters as usual, locally, and a lot more Labour ones.
This is an election not to share your Tory vote intention with anybody but the polling booth.
"So Tory voter, when did you stop eating babies?"
I'm sure there is a shy Tory effect, but there may also be an instinct to join the crowd. People sense that a revolution is coming, and they want to be a part of it.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Makes for a deeply unsatisfying set of sandwich options...although it avoids the spectacle of him eating a bacon sarnie that has proved so toxic in the past.
Does he eat fish? Prawn sandwiches are very tasty.
There are also Marmite sandwiches.
Sandwiches involving high quality bread and stilton can be a food of the gods, take moments to do and cost little compared with petrol station's finest.
Had decent bread and hummus from the community shop yesterday with sliced gherkins and tomatoes with coarsely shredded fresh basil.
I adore hummus but with basil - does that work?
(A pedant writes: shredding basil rather than tearing!)
@RepRaskin on the Democratic ticket: "I know this is a moving target. It's got to happen quickly. But I can guarantee you—there will be massive unity and focus on that task when we get to the end of this process. And it's happening very quickly." https://x.com/allinwithchris/status/1808301888187625982
Perhaps the Supreme Court decision has focused minds a little more? Might this actually be a moment when people put personal vanity to one side and act in the collective interest?
"People" = Biden family?
No sign of it happening.
I was thinking more of senior elected democrats. If enough of them are insistent that Biden goes could he really hang on?
If he digs his heels in then yes, he could hang on. Ultimately if he makes it as far as the convention they'll have to support him, any other threat anybody may make is empty. I expect he's persuadable and the consensus among the party bigwigs will make a difference, but none of us really knows anything about his state of mind.
Basically the only way to force him out if he doesn't want to go is via the 25 Amendment.
So many predictions, as is only right on the day before the Day. I won't add to the pile except to say my PB comp entry of Lab 116 majority looks like a lowball. I'd put in more like 150 now. I'm happy with my biggest spread bet, long of LD seats @ 40. My only constituency bet is Jez to fall short. Happy with that too.
I have some bad long term pro-Con positions from 2021 so my mission is to make enough profit to nullify the losses coming from those. 🤞
One thing I am certain of is our PM on Friday will be Keir Starmer. After a succession of poshboys, charlatans, fantasists and lightweights the country will for the forseeable future be in the hands of this decent, diligent, highly capable, assured yet unassuming son of a toolmaker. Ah bisto.
I plan to luxuriate in the relief, security and contentment of this delightful state of affairs for at least 48 hours before going back to chewing my nails off, fingers and toes if I can reach them, about WH24.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Did nobody think to ask him whether it was a Greggs sandwich or a Gail’s sandwich?
That would have been explosive either way. Just look at the arguments on here the other day. Mr S couldn't win either way. Gail's would not have gone down well in his constituency where bits of Millstone Grit are just a relish in the local bread. And, in the Blue Wall, Gregg's ...
Mildly surprised that no Tory was so crass as to get a friendly newspaper to forcefeed the LOTO a bacon sandwich this time. Maybe they learned their lesson over Friday evenings.
So many predictions, as is only right on the day before the Day. I won't add to the pile except to say my PB comp entry of Lab 116 majority looks like a lowball. I'd put in more like 150 now. I'm happy with my biggest spread bet, long of LD seats @ 40. My only constituency bet is Jez to fall short. Happy with that too.
I have some bad long term pro-Con positions from 2021 so my mission is to make enough profit to nullify the losses coming from those. 🤞
One thing I am certain of is our PM on Friday will be Keir Starmer. After a succession of poshboys, charlatans, fantasists and lightweights the country will for the forseeable future be in the hands of this decent, diligent, highly capable, assured yet unassuming son of a toolmaker. Ah bisto.
I plan to luxuriate in the relief, security and contentment of this delightful state of affairs for at least 48 hours before going back to chewing my nails off, fingers and toes if I can reach them, about WH24.
Glad to hear about Corbyn. I have a sizable bet against him winning but have been wavering on this lately. How sure are you that he will lose? Your neck of the woods I think?
Immediately off topic there's a bfx market on month Sunak ceases to lead Tory party. I lost too much money on Johnson's departure to risk any on this but my guess is there's so much hatred of him in the party that he may jump on Friday, possibly not even staying as caretaker
I suppose it’s just worth a wait to see who the survivors are - if they are all Suellaites then he’s doomed on day 2 but if they are all Dowdenites then they might keep him in situ for a while whilst they have a proper debate/horse trading session before any final leadership election.
If, as looks likely, CCHQ parachuted a lot of Rishi friendly candidates in and they all somehow manage to win then the party will have a very different complexion from what some fear and might not go down the loony rabbit hole as others hope they do.
Having a looksee, I have put a fun money £3 on "2025 or later", at odds of 36.
Purely on the possibility that he will be a Michael Howard, not a David Cameron. That's assuming he keeps his seat.
I'd guess conference in October is when they'd want to crown their new leader. That was the plan when David Cameron resigned but withdrawals by Boris and Andrea Leadsom meant Theresa May was in place, and Cameron out, weeks earlier.
ETA speaking of Dowden, then subject to the good voters of Hertsmere, he will be taking on Angela Rayner in the first PMQs as the Prime Minister will be at a Nato summit.
Actually, if the first PMQs is 24th July, the Prime Minister should be back by then, so the real LotO (who might be Ed Davey) will be up.
So many predictions, as is only right on the day before the Day. I won't add to the pile except to say my PB comp entry of Lab 116 majority looks like a lowball. I'd put in more like 150 now. I'm happy with my biggest spread bet, long of LD seats @ 40. My only constituency bet is Jez to fall short. Happy with that too.
I have some bad long term pro-Con positions from 2021 so my mission is to make enough profit to nullify the losses coming from those. 🤞
One thing I am certain of is our PM on Friday will be Keir Starmer. After a succession of poshboys, charlatans, fantasists and lightweights the country will for the forseeable future be in the hands of this decent, diligent, highly capable, assured yet unassuming son of a toolmaker. Ah bisto.
I plan to luxuriate in the relief, security and contentment of this delightful state of affairs for at least 48 hours before going back to chewing my nails off, fingers and toes if I can reach them, about WH24.
Hmmm.
Again a reminder that hasn’t altogether worked for Biden, even though by any metric he’s been a highly successful President - more so than SKS is likely to be as PM.
Not sure if some of the Turkey players and fans are deliberately trying to make themselves unpopular in Germany, I really hope they get eliminated next round. A Germany vs Turkey final would be a nightmare.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Makes for a deeply unsatisfying set of sandwich options...although it avoids the spectacle of him eating a bacon sarnie that has proved so toxic in the past.
Does he eat fish? Prawn sandwiches are very tasty.
There are also Marmite sandwiches.
Sandwiches involving high quality bread and stilton can be a food of the gods, take moments to do and cost little compared with petrol station's finest.
Had decent bread and hummus from the community shop yesterday with sliced gherkins and tomatoes with coarsely shredded fresh basil.
I adore hummus but with basil - does that work?
(A pedant writes: shredding basil rather than tearing!)
Chopped with scissors, actually (convenience).
Never tried it with basil alone - the plant is not large and gets saved for eating with the fresh tomatoes which often end up in sandwiches in this household.
I think turnout will be low. I think Labour will have a record landslide in seats. I think that landslide will come on less that 38% of the vote. I think the SNP will hold the majority of Scottish seats. I think Liz Truss will lose her seat I think there will be recounts in at least 20 seats. I think Farage will win Clacton with a bigger majority than Rishi Sunak in Richmond and Northallerton. I think there will be very different voting patterns in different regions, with the Lib Dems doing well in Wessex and generally badly in the Midlands and industrial north and North East. I think Labour sweep the red wall, but have some surprise losses in areas with high ethnic minority voters. Some losses in blue wall seats, but Tories still comfortably ahead of Lib Dems in seats numbers. Reform win 5, Greens win 3. We will see in about 36 hours.
I agree with all of that except Reform 5 seats. I think 1 or 2.
How many recounts do we usually have? I must say I fear that the election won’t be as disastrous for the Conservatives as we are (nearly) all expecting (hoping)!
Although there aren’t nearly as many Conservative window posters as usual, locally, and a lot more Labour ones.
This is an election not to share your Tory vote intention with anybody but the polling booth.
"So Tory voter, when did you stop eating babies?"
I'm sure there is a shy Tory effect, but there may also be an instinct to join the crowd. People sense that a revolution is coming, and they want to be a part of it.
Yes the way the Tories are talking they come across as losers now. And people dont want to be associated with that. And bringing out Boris at the end was a mistake as he repels more than he attracts now especially in the blue wall.
New Peoplepolling (Goodwin) poll out with Labour down 4 points but I'm not posting it until they actually show the Lib Dem, Green and SNP votes rather than just quoting Lab, Con and Ref.
But if you have been disfranchised by the selection of election date you certainly have every right to moan.
Yes indeed. Scottish holidays have begun for example. Many Unis have broken up.
The old folks on this site aren’t covering themselves in glory today.
School holidays have also begun in NI, and there's the added complication of marching season which peaks in the first two weeks of July.
Much harder to get a postal or proxy vote, too - an earlier deadline, and a requirement to give evidence of flight & hotel bookings for those going away.
So many predictions, as is only right on the day before the Day. I won't add to the pile except to say my PB comp entry of Lab 116 majority looks like a lowball. I'd put in more like 150 now. I'm happy with my biggest spread bet, long of LD seats @ 40. My only constituency bet is Jez to fall short. Happy with that too.
I have some bad long term pro-Con positions from 2021 so my mission is to make enough profit to nullify the losses coming from those. 🤞
One thing I am certain of is our PM on Friday will be Keir Starmer. After a succession of poshboys, charlatans, fantasists and lightweights the country will for the forseeable future be in the hands of this decent, diligent, highly capable, assured yet unassuming son of a toolmaker. Ah bisto.
I plan to luxuriate in the relief, security and contentment of this delightful state of affairs for at least 48 hours before going back to chewing my nails off, fingers and toes if I can reach them, about WH24.
If (see earlier discussion) Badenoch has to rerun the election, then by the time it's done, such is the uncertain nature of voters' opinion, Labour will have been in power for a few weeks, and as a result Badenoch would get in with a 35,000 majority.
Following last week's bombshell that Aldi in the UK is actually part of Aldi Süd, rather than the more logical Aldi Nord, here is this week's useless fact:
In Germany there are 2 supermarket chains called Netto: Netto (with dog) and Netto (without dog).
This is a bit different to Aldi Nord and Aldi Süd, who coordinate with each other and have divided Germany between them. Above a certain latitude you only find Aldi Nord, and below it Aldi Süd. A bit like the 38th Parallel in Korea or the Mason-Dixon line. I'm not sure on what basis, but they have also divided the rest of Europe into spheres of influence.
The 2 Nettos are completely different companies, Netto (with dog) is owned by a Danish company, Netto (without dog) by a German supermarket chain. I don't think I have ever seen Netto (with dog) outside of the former East Germany, but there are places there that have both and you have to say 'Netto with/without dog' to specify which supermarket you mean.
I realise Netto (with dog) no longer operates in the UK so this may be of slightly less interest than the 2 Aldis revelation, but I promise this is more interesting than next week's useless fact (which will be about Lidl).
I don't want to be crushing, but why is two Aldis a revelation?
The ALDI brothers (iirc) divided up the world like Pope Alexander VI did between Portugal and Spain in the Treaty of Tortillas *, 1493.
I thought everybody knew this. They did it, like Pope Alexander, before most of us on PB were born.
(*) OK, Treaty of Tordesillas. My name is better.
I am crushed. And I didn't know there were 2 Aldis until I moved to Germany. Next you'll be telling me Four Seasons Hotels don't have a branch specialising in total landscaping.
My fav bet at the moment is turnout low, 57.5 - 59.99 band at 8.4 with bf.
It will probably be higher but 8.4 is too big.
Just remember when making historical calculations that the register is a lot more efficient nowadays, with far fewer out of date or duplicate entries, which pushes calculated turnout up even when the proportion of people voting is the same.
Tomorrow's forecast is for predominantly dry weather across the UK which presumably adds marginally to the turnout, but who knows to what extent. Now that really would add a fresh challenge for Mr. Baxter to deal with!
New Peoplepolling (Goodwin) poll out with Labour down 4 points but I'm not posting it until they actually show the Lib Dem, Green and SNP votes rather than just quoting Lab, Con and Ref.
Is that then Labour no better than Corbyn's figure in 2019. Is there a Labour -Reform crossover yet?
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
New Peoplepolling (Goodwin) poll out with Labour down 4 points but I'm not posting it until they actually show the Lib Dem, Green and SNP votes rather than just quoting Lab, Con and Ref.
I felt sure he'd have Ref leading Lab before the end of the election!
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
So many predictions, as is only right on the day before the Day. I won't add to the pile except to say my PB comp entry of Lab 116 majority looks like a lowball. I'd put in more like 150 now. I'm happy with my biggest spread bet, long of LD seats @ 40. My only constituency bet is Jez to fall short. Happy with that too.
I have some bad long term pro-Con positions from 2021 so my mission is to make enough profit to nullify the losses coming from those. 🤞
One thing I am certain of is our PM on Friday will be Keir Starmer. After a succession of poshboys, charlatans, fantasists and lightweights the country will for the forseeable future be in the hands of this decent, diligent, highly capable, assured yet unassuming son of a toolmaker. Ah bisto.
I plan to luxuriate in the relief, security and contentment of this delightful state of affairs for at least 48 hours before going back to chewing my nails off, fingers and toes if I can reach them, about WH24.
Glad to hear about Corbyn. I have a sizable bet against him winning but have been wavering on this lately. How sure are you that he will lose? Your neck of the woods I think?
It's next door, yes. I give him about a 25% chance. Be surprised but not shocked if he won.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Makes for a deeply unsatisfying set of sandwich options...although it avoids the spectacle of him eating a bacon sarnie that has proved so toxic in the past.
Does he eat fish? Prawn sandwiches are very tasty.
There are also Marmite sandwiches.
Sandwiches involving high quality bread and stilton can be a food of the gods, take moments to do and cost little compared with petrol station's finest.
Had decent bread and hummus from the community shop yesterday with sliced gherkins and tomatoes with coarsely shredded fresh basil.
If the sandwich is a Banh Mi then Sunak has great meals.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Makes for a deeply unsatisfying set of sandwich options...although it avoids the spectacle of him eating a bacon sarnie that has proved so toxic in the past.
Does he eat fish? Prawn sandwiches are very tasty.
There are also Marmite sandwiches.
Sandwiches involving high quality bread and stilton can be a food of the gods, take moments to do and cost little compared with petrol station's finest.
Had decent bread and hummus from the community shop yesterday with sliced gherkins and tomatoes with coarsely shredded fresh basil.
Hummus and sun-dried tomatoes make for a godly combo on bread.
Well that's incredible because I'm having hummus for lunch today. What are the odds?
Been for my final pad around the constituency pre vote. Garden placard/window poster engagement extremely low even compared to the locals 2 months ago (indeed most are just recycled locals stuff 'Norwich Labour' etc ) I have seen just one Clive Lewis specific poster. A very safe Labour seat so my working assumption is that, certainly in safe left leaning seats, turnout will be extremely low. I expect turnout here to be under 60%, possibly well under
The average of the last ten polls is Labour 38.9%, Con 21.4%, Reform 15.8%, Lib Dem 11.4%.
Be interesting to compare those percentages to the actual result.
In percentage terms my hunch is Lab a bit lower, and Reform lower than in your post - and Green significantly higher (percentage not seats won) than expected.
Best value Lib Dem constituencies if you are bullish on Lib Dem 55+ seats?
They definitely have a squeak in my patch, South Shropshire, although I think they may just fall short. I think Tewkesbury has been well flagged. For other outside possibilities, how about Hinkley & Bosworth or North Dorset.
I’ve had small bets on South Shrops and Tewkesbury.
I assume Rishi will go the Palace at about 11:30am and Keir Starmer at about 12:30pm, to be at Downing Street by around 1pm.
Looks like Rishi will be ending the election as he began it - In the rain!
Hopefully someone will give him an umbrella this time lol!
The weather isn’t giving Starmer the burst of national optimism he would have hoped for. That combined with defeat for England at the weekend is going to start things off on a very dour footing.
The theme tune for this campaign should be “things will only get marginally better”.
How do you place a low risk bet on tomorrow's G.E. just for a bit of fun.
My suggestion on one way would be to back the Tories over two x 50 seat bands, i.e. to win 50 - 99 seats or 100 - 149 seats. Based on staking say £20 in total (your call of course) and based on the current odds available, these two bets would be placed as follows:
On the basis of just about all recent polling, one or other of these two x 50 seat band bets will prove successful, thereby providing a virtually identical profit in either case of £5.53/£5.59. That's a return in 24 hours of 27.8%, which has to beat working for a living!
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Makes for a deeply unsatisfying set of sandwich options...although it avoids the spectacle of him eating a bacon sarnie that has proved so toxic in the past.
Does he eat fish? Prawn sandwiches are very tasty.
There are also Marmite sandwiches.
Sandwiches involving high quality bread and stilton can be a food of the gods, take moments to do and cost little compared with petrol station's finest.
Had decent bread and hummus from the community shop yesterday with sliced gherkins and tomatoes with coarsely shredded fresh basil.
If the sandwich is a Banh Mi then Sunak has great meals.
Isn't 'Banh Mi' what several prominent posters here are subliminally screaming?
It shows Labour 420 seats, Conservative 123, Liberal Democrat 57, SNP 16, Reform UK 8, Plaid Cymru 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 192. The forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240703ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv As with other forecasts, a lot of seats are predicted to have tiny majorities. Small adjustments to the polling data or methodology can make surprisingly big changes to the result, although never enough to either affect the overall result (a Labour majority of around 190 to 250 seats), or to match some of the more extreme MRP seat projections.
I think turnout will be low. I think Labour will have a record landslide in seats. I think that landslide will come on less that 38% of the vote. I think the SNP will hold the majority of Scottish seats. I think Liz Truss will lose her seat I think there will be recounts in at least 20 seats. I think Farage will win Clacton with a bigger majority than Rishi Sunak in Richmond and Northallerton. I think there will be very different voting patterns in different regions, with the Lib Dems doing well in Wessex and generally badly in the Midlands and industrial north and North East. I think Labour sweep the red wall, but have some surprise losses in areas with high ethnic minority voters. Some losses in blue wall seats, but Tories still comfortably ahead of Lib Dems in seats numbers. Reform win 5, Greens win 3. We will see in about 36 hours.
I agree with all of that except Reform 5 seats. I think 1 or 2.
How many recounts do we usually have? I must say I fear that the election won’t be as disastrous for the Conservatives as we are (nearly) all expecting (hoping)!
Although there aren’t nearly as many Conservative window posters as usual, locally, and a lot more Labour ones.
This is an election not to share your Tory vote intention with anybody but the polling booth.
"So Tory voter, when did you stop eating babies?"
Will the shy Tories be in enough numbers so that the planes will be flying to Rwanda next week?
So many predictions, as is only right on the day before the Day. I won't add to the pile except to say my PB comp entry of Lab 116 majority looks like a lowball. I'd put in more like 150 now. I'm happy with my biggest spread bet, long of LD seats @ 40. My only constituency bet is Jez to fall short. Happy with that too.
I have some bad long term pro-Con positions from 2021 so my mission is to make enough profit to nullify the losses coming from those. 🤞
One thing I am certain of is our PM on Friday will be Keir Starmer. After a succession of poshboys, charlatans, fantasists and lightweights the country will for the forseeable future be in the hands of this decent, diligent, highly capable, assured yet unassuming son of a toolmaker. Ah bisto.
I plan to luxuriate in the relief, security and contentment of this delightful state of affairs for at least 48 hours before going back to chewing my nails off, fingers and toes if I can reach them, about WH24.
Glad to hear about Corbyn. I have a sizable bet against him winning but have been wavering on this lately. How sure are you that he will lose? Your neck of the woods I think?
It's next door, yes. I give him about a 25% chance. Be surprised but not shocked if he won.
My biggest bet of the election (a whole £25) is on Corbyn losing.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
I assume Rishi will go the Palace at about 11:30am and Keir Starmer at about 12:30pm, to be at Downing Street by around 1pm.
Looks like Rishi will be ending the election as he began it - In the rain!
Hopefully someone will give him an umbrella this time lol!
The weather isn’t giving Starmer the burst of national optimism he would have hoped for. That combined with defeat for England at the weekend is going to start things off on a very dour footing.
The theme tune for this campaign should be “things will only get marginally better”.
I've had a couple of quid at 50 on Steve Barclay next Tory leader (purely on @HYUFD posts).
My largest bet on that market is Patel at 25/1 (bet placed a while ago).
25/1 is a good price for Priti Patel who is now into 7/1 at Ladbrokes & Corals and a bit shorter on the exchange. I cannot quite see Priti landing it but she is in a safe seat and touted as more voter-friendly than Suella, and is a mate of Boris who still has some clout with the membership.
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Makes for a deeply unsatisfying set of sandwich options...although it avoids the spectacle of him eating a bacon sarnie that has proved so toxic in the past.
Does he eat fish? Prawn sandwiches are very tasty.
There are also Marmite sandwiches.
Sandwiches involving high quality bread and stilton can be a food of the gods, take moments to do and cost little compared with petrol station's finest.
Had decent bread and hummus from the community shop yesterday with sliced gherkins and tomatoes with coarsely shredded fresh basil.
Hummus and sun-dried tomatoes make for a godly combo on bread.
Well that's incredible because I'm having hummus for lunch today. What are the odds?
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Goodwin: Britain Bowtie Bob
LLG 55 to RefCon 36 is actually fairly bang on the rest of the pollsters! It's just a bit more fashed up (and greened up for good measure).
So many predictions, as is only right on the day before the Day. I won't add to the pile except to say my PB comp entry of Lab 116 majority looks like a lowball. I'd put in more like 150 now. I'm happy with my biggest spread bet, long of LD seats @ 40. My only constituency bet is Jez to fall short. Happy with that too.
I have some bad long term pro-Con positions from 2021 so my mission is to make enough profit to nullify the losses coming from those. 🤞
One thing I am certain of is our PM on Friday will be Keir Starmer. After a succession of poshboys, charlatans, fantasists and lightweights the country will for the forseeable future be in the hands of this decent, diligent, highly capable, assured yet unassuming son of a toolmaker. Ah bisto.
I plan to luxuriate in the relief, security and contentment of this delightful state of affairs for at least 48 hours before going back to chewing my nails off, fingers and toes if I can reach them, about WH24.
Glad to hear about Corbyn. I have a sizable bet against him winning but have been wavering on this lately. How sure are you that he will lose? Your neck of the woods I think?
It's next door, yes. I give him about a 25% chance. Be surprised but not shocked if he won.
My biggest bet of the election (a whole £25) is on Corbyn losing.
I genuinely hope you get a decent drink out of that punt.
I think turnout will be low. I think Labour will have a record landslide in seats. I think that landslide will come on less that 38% of the vote. I think the SNP will hold the majority of Scottish seats. I think Liz Truss will lose her seat I think there will be recounts in at least 20 seats. I think Farage will win Clacton with a bigger majority than Rishi Sunak in Richmond and Northallerton. I think there will be very different voting patterns in different regions, with the Lib Dems doing well in Wessex and generally badly in the Midlands and industrial north and North East. I think Labour sweep the red wall, but have some surprise losses in areas with high ethnic minority voters. Some losses in blue wall seats, but Tories still comfortably ahead of Lib Dems in seats numbers. Reform win 5, Greens win 3. We will see in about 36 hours.
I agree with all of that except Reform 5 seats. I think 1 or 2.
How many recounts do we usually have? I must say I fear that the election won’t be as disastrous for the Conservatives as we are (nearly) all expecting (hoping)!
Although there aren’t nearly as many Conservative window posters as usual, locally, and a lot more Labour ones.
This is an election not to share your Tory vote intention with anybody but the polling booth.
"So Tory voter, when did you stop eating babies?"
Will the shy Tories be in enough numbers so that the planes will be flying to Rwanda next week?
What do you think? I ask again, are you on Tory Most Seats – presumably you have made a decent investment?
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Goodwin: Britain Bowtie Bob
LLG 55 to RefCon 36 is actually fairly bang on the rest of the pollsters! It's just a bit more fashed up (and greened up for good measure).
But why are you rolling up separate parties into one?
Comments
1997
Final poll average from each company: Con 30.8, Lab 46.8, LD 16.4
Result: Con 30.7, Lab 43.2, LD 16.8
2001
Final poll average from each company: Con 31.0, Lab 45.2, LD 17.4
Result: Con 31.7, Lab 40.7, LD 18.3
2005
Final poll average from each company: Con 32.3, Lab 38.0, LD 22.0
Result: Con 32.3, Lab 36.2, LD 22.7
2010
Final poll average from each company: Con 35.6, Lab 27.6, LD 27.4
Result: Con 36.9, Lab 29.7, LD 23.6
2015
Final poll average from each company: Con 33.7, Lab 33.1, LD 8.8, UKIP 12.7
Result: Con 37.8, Lab 31.2, LD 8.1, UKIP 12.9
2017
Final poll average from each company: Con 43.2, Lab 36.3, LD 7.7, UKIP 4.4
Result [GB only]: Con 43.5, Lab 41.0, LD 7.6, UKIP 1.9
2019
Final poll average from each company: Con 43.2, Lab 33.5, LD 11.9, Brexit 3.5
Result [GB only]: Con 44.7, Lab 33.0, LD 11.8, Brexit 4.0
[apologies for the switch to GB only towards the end, not precisely comparing apples to apples]
But, IMHO, this election looks set to be a nice example of FPTP. It's obvious that the key facts in public opinion currently are:
1) About 80% of voters want the Tories out of government and told to go away until they have grown up
2) The great majority of voters want broadly centrist, non racist, non fascist, non hard left, social democrat government.
FPTP will deliver both these things effortlessly. Starmer won't be in discussions with the BNP, SF, DUP, and SWP and an Islamist Front and George to form a rickety government. Good.
The one you force feed to Casino ?
Are you feeling any better today?
Unfair. I expect the ones who will loudly moan online about government capture by the boomers are those who did in fact vote. So they have the right to moan.
ETA speaking of Dowden, then subject to the good voters of Hertsmere, he will be taking on Angela Rayner in the first PMQs as the Prime Minister will be at a Nato summit.
My largest bet on that market is Patel at 25/1 (bet placed a while ago).
I also think it would have worked to the Conservatives advantage, another week and Farage would probably have faded more than he will have.
(A pedant writes: shredding basil rather than tearing!)
Basically the only way to force him out if he doesn't want to go is via the 25 Amendment.
I have some bad long term pro-Con positions from 2021 so my mission is to make enough profit to nullify the losses coming from those. 🤞
One thing I am certain of is our PM on Friday will be Keir Starmer. After a succession of poshboys, charlatans, fantasists and lightweights the country will for the forseeable future be in the hands of this decent, diligent, highly capable, assured yet unassuming son of a toolmaker. Ah bisto.
I plan to luxuriate in the relief, security and contentment of this delightful state of affairs for at least 48 hours before going back to chewing my nails off, fingers and toes if I can reach them, about WH24.
Mildly surprised that no Tory was so crass as to get a friendly newspaper to forcefeed the LOTO a bacon sandwich this time. Maybe they learned their lesson over Friday evenings.
Again a reminder that hasn’t altogether worked for Biden, even though by any metric he’s been a highly successful President - more so than SKS is likely to be as PM.
Never tried it with basil alone - the plant is not large and gets saved for eating with the fresh tomatoes which often end up in sandwiches in this household.
Much harder to get a postal or proxy vote, too - an earlier deadline, and a requirement to give evidence of flight & hotel bookings for those going away.
Have we had this yet?
NEW Survation Telephone Tracker for @GMB - Poll 4/4:
LAB 38% (-3)
CON 18% (-)
REF 17% (+3)
LD 11% (-1)
GRE 7% (+2)
SNP 3% (+1)
OTH 6% (-1)
F/w 26th June - 2nd July. Changes vs. 26th June 2024
The striking thing is how many Labour seats are projected to be quite safe but not wastefully so. There's not that many Labour supermarginals.
https://twitter.com/TomHCalver/status/1808410396593631464
No wonder he's been awful.
Labour 36%
Reform 20%
Conservatives 16%
Lib Dems 10%
Greens 9%
SNP 4%
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1808464350283247653
Hopefully someone will give him an umbrella this time lol!
I expect turnout here to be under 60%, possibly well under
Just for lols.
In percentage terms my hunch is Lab a bit lower, and Reform lower than in your post - and Green significantly higher (percentage not seats won) than expected.
I’ve had small bets on South Shrops and Tewkesbury.
@GoodwinMJ
FINAL poll of campaign
Labour 36%
Reform 20%
Conservatives 16%
Lib Dems 10%
Greens 9%
SNP 4%
People Polling/
@GBNEWS
July 2"
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1808464350283247653
The theme tune for this campaign should be “things will only get marginally better”.
Goodwin: Britain Bowtie Bob
It shows Labour 420 seats, Conservative 123, Liberal Democrat 57, SNP 16, Reform UK 8, Plaid Cymru 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 192. The forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240703ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv As with other forecasts, a lot of seats are predicted to have tiny majorities. Small adjustments to the polling data or methodology can make surprisingly big changes to the result, although never enough to either affect the overall result (a Labour majority of around 190 to 250 seats), or to match some of the more extreme MRP seat projections.
Some people may also find the UK-Elect links page useful as it contains a lot of links to election related websites: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/links.html
https://www.ilcovile.it/scritti/Manifesto_Wodehouse_A4_Inglese.pdf
Edit: Actually it's not great value but they are in with a shout.
I suspect it works the other way too. A couple of percent more than expected Conservative support sees a big increase in seats won.
A tenner wins you £2,800.
But I expect you have a grand on?