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Stopping the supermajority Scotland style – politicalbetting.com
Stopping the supermajority Scotland style – politicalbetting.com
New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Savanta 28 Jun – 2 Jul (changes vs 21-25 Jun):SNP ~ 34% (nc)Lab ~ 31% (-3)Con ~ 15% (+1)LD ~ 9% (nc)RUK ~ 6% (nc)Grn ~ 3% (+1)A spicy final-but-mostly-MoE poll from Savanta, to be sure; in 2021 they had biggest SNP *under*estimate! pic.twitter.com/nzhRIxLK65
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FFS.
And then they will spend five years whining over their oatmilk lattes about how boomers get all the public goods.
Keiran Pedley
@keiranpedley
Key analysis from @CameronGarrett_ yesterday on turnout.
https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1808424950979555758
(Sample size = me)
That actually makes me wonder how the Tories will do. Together with the slinkers back to the fold.
@Samfr
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53m
One of the final phone polls of the election has the Conservatives on 18%.
If, as looks likely, CCHQ parachuted a lot of Rishi friendly candidates in and they all somehow manage to win then the party will have a very different complexion from what some fear and might not go down the loony rabbit hole as others hope they do.
OK, my predictions for tomorrow:
1. Labour to slightly stem the polling tide and land a (GB) vote share of above 40%, UK above 39%
Why: quite simply how few votes they need to actually gain to get there. A significant proportion of the work from a GB 32.9% last time out can be done by deaths, new voters, Tory abstentionism and the like, only 3-4% net need actually come from gaining switchers from other parties, and the people to do that are there imho.
2. That said Labour will lose votes to the left and will fail in at least half a dozen nominal defences:
Why: Hat tip to the poster who pointed me to the YouGov ethnic minority voter poll which had, iirc, Lab 43, Grn 26, Oth 10 for Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. That sounds tolerable for Labour, but still gives scope the quarter of those voters who live in the 23 constituencies where they account for 30%+ of the population and where the highest profile others are standing to account for a lot of that "Other" vote, and even then selectively. I think locally to me, Dewsbury & Batley will be amongst these and I think the winners will be low profile names - I don't necessarily think Galloway and Corbyn will figure, though Reform might.
3. Tory vote share will be under 25% (UK)
Why: They are too far below 25% in polling. This reverses an earlier prediction of mine saying they would be above it, though I retain my broad brush, Labour to win by 8-16%, which today's predictions just about allow.
4. We will be close to a situation where the identity of HM Opposition could be unclear for some time and may rely on alliance making, whether that is LD/APNI/Green or Con/DUP or even that Reform getting a look in down the line. There may be parliamentary shenanigans, and we may have different blocs providing LOTO during the course of the next parliament. It could be messy.
Why: Simply because I'm in this territory with predictions 1-3.
On the VIs. Verian is very interesting. I said they wouldn't herd and that 36% for Lab is notable. Given their record it may be correct - though the 15% lead over the Cons still earns Lab a thumping majority (Ain't FPTP wonderful!) We have an Ipsos incoming but I don't know about Survation or Opinium.
Edit - Survation has Lab down to 38% rather franking Verian's form. However, they have the lead on 20% and Ref only 1% behind the Cons. If that is right then mercy help the poor spread betters!
The old folks on this site aren’t covering themselves in glory today.
"Tories to win just 64 seats, latest poll predicts
Survey of 34,558 voters by Survation gives Labour majority of 159, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party predicted to win 484 seats"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/02/tories-cut-labour-lead-reform-uk-support-dips-poll/
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/a-decision-of-surpassing-recklessness-in-dangerous-times
...The Supreme Court’s decision, however, does not come decontextualized in a casebook. And it is not, however much the justices of the majority may pretend otherwise, about the presidency in the abstract. Of course, it also affects the presidency in the abstract—and all future presidents who wield its powers. But this is a case about a particular man in interaction with the presidency. And those actions are not all in the past tense.
It is a case in which the Supreme Court was asked whether it wanted to enable Trump’s avowed authoritarianism in a future presidency by disabling his prosecution for crimes committed in his prior presidency.
It is, in other words, about some very immediate—and very non-hypothetical—dangers.
And it comes at a very specific political moment: Trump is currently leading in most polls. According to Nate Silver’s forecast, Trump has a 71 percent chance of winning the election in November. That chance is only 51 percent if you prefer the 538 forecast. But he’s the current front-runner by any reasonable measure. His opponent’s campaign is in no small turmoil following Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in last week’s debate. Trump is, in short, the single most likely person in the world to wield the powers of the American presidency come Jan. 20, 2025.
He is also a convicted criminal—no small matter when one is writing a “rule for the ages” about prospective presidential impunity, as Justice Neil Gorsuch put it during oral arguments. The court majority may flatter itself that it’s staying out of politics. But this is a fairy tale the justices are telling themselves—if they are, in fact, telling themselves this pleasant little tale. In fact, they are handing a powerful immunity to an adjudged felon who may be about to assume “the executive power” of the United States, and they are doing it by corroding—and perhaps rendering impossible—accountability for his past crimes.
There’s another sense in which the Supreme Court has failed here: It has articulated a set of standards for presidential immunity that are utterly opaque. The most fundamental job of an appellate court, even when it’s articulating an objectionable principle, is to give actionable guidance to lower courts. The Court in this case has not done this. Reading the opinion alongside the indictment, it is completely unclear how to apply it to the instant case along a number of different axes and with respect to a number of different allegations...
Read the whole article if you are in any doubt about the court's judgment.
It is an excellent step by step examination of just how bad it is.
SNP to be largest scottish party is mine at 100/30 with skybet
Rishi Sunak delivers the best quote of the general election campaign.
Asked if he is planning a special meal on election night, he tells ITV's This Morning programme:
“My favourite meal, generally, is sandwiches.”
@TomLarkinSky
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
@TomHCalver
The PM has seized on our research suggesting 130k votes (in theory) separate a 200-seat Labour majority from a hung parliament
But I should also point out that 200k going the other way could leave the Tories with ZERO seats.
Welcome to marginal Britain.
https://thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/how-100-marginal-seats-could-dash-labours-hopes-of-a-supermajority-s85bmnmk8
I’m going to do a short thread on what I think could be some surprises tomorrow night….
https://x.com/ProfJaneGreen/status/1808438043503649116
They have the Cons looking very low - a counter-balance to JLP who are the other side of the polling pack. Interesting both have Ref on 16 or 17%. Survation have the Others on 5% which looks very high tho they and Savanta generally have had them far above all other firms. Is it the Galloway surge? (Answer - No, it isn't).
Ahem
Yes - I think this is what makes this a particularly tricky election to predict and bet on. Small national swings could have big seat swings. A few people will make out like bandits from the spreads, I think, but tbh this will be more luck than judgement.
Personally I'm not quite there with those - both BFX.
Yoons, July 2024: people with postal votes disenfranchised, SNP must explain
The Edinburgh council guy (Returning officer?) on R4 last week was quite reasonable despite Martha Carney asking the same question over and over again. Essentially they’re legally constrained on dates of printing ballot papers and can’t mess about with that. It sounds like it’s been a perfect storm of GE date, a general increase in postal voting and Royal Mail being a bit crap.
The postal votes cannot be issued until all candidates have been confirmed.
My son applied the night Sunak announced the election in the rain.
Assuming the polls are roughly right the combined Tory and Labour share of the vote will be at its lowest level in memory. Lower than the 65% in 2010. So a quick thread 🧵on the huge electoral distortions that will come from our first past the post (FPTP) system tomorrow. 1/n
https://x.com/robertshrimsley/status/1808435112607887834
Also - 'sandwich' is more a format than a meal. Like saying 'My favourite band is R&B'.
Poll of Muslim voters from MiC. Indies/WPB with a fair showing but Labour well out in front, albeit less dominant than 2019
Let's call it a super majority instead.
A tremendous, splendid, fantastic, absolutely topping majority...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKAeO-5saqQ
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
And the application could have been made once the election was called.
I think Labour will have a record landslide in seats.
I think that landslide will come on less that 38% of the vote.
I think the SNP will hold the majority of Scottish seats.
I think Liz Truss will lose her seat
I think there will be recounts in at least 20 seats.
I think Farage will win Clacton with a bigger majority than Rishi Sunak in Richmond and Northallerton.
I think there will be very different voting patterns in different regions, with the Lib Dems doing well in Wessex and generally badly in the Midlands and industrial north and North East.
I think Labour sweep the red wall, but have some surprise losses in areas with high ethnic minority voters.
Some losses in blue wall seats, but Tories still comfortably ahead of Lib Dems in seats numbers.
Reform win 5, Greens win 3.
We will see in about 36 hours.
In Germany there are 2 supermarket chains called Netto: Netto (with dog) and Netto (without dog).
This is a bit different to Aldi Nord and Aldi Süd, who coordinate with each other and have divided Germany between them. Above a certain latitude you only find Aldi Nord, and below it Aldi Süd. A bit like the 38th Parallel in Korea or the Mason-Dixon line. I'm not sure on what basis, but they have also divided the rest of Europe into spheres of influence.
The 2 Nettos are completely different companies, Netto (with dog) is owned by a Danish company, Netto (without dog) by a German supermarket chain. I don't think I have ever seen Netto (with dog) outside of the former East Germany, but there are places there that have both and you have to say 'Netto with/without dog' to specify which supermarket you mean.
I realise Netto (with dog) no longer operates in the UK so this may be of slightly less interest than the 2 Aldis revelation, but I promise this is more interesting than next week's useless fact (which will be about Lidl).
https://www.thetimes.com/article/reform-uk-candidate-described-autistic-people-as-vegetables-tvgtxkx3p
It might have arrived on Monday but he is working for the BBC in Wrexham this week. He phoned up every day last week and the week before.
https://x.com/damocrat/status/1808269685240050111
I see Survation has kicked off our Eve Of Poll, polls! Many more still to come
Enjoy!
https://x.com/allinwithchris/status/1808301888187625982
The ALDI brothers (iirc) divided up the world like Pope Alexander VI did between Portugal and Spain in the Treaty of Tortillas *, 1493.
I thought everybody knew this. They did it, like Pope Alexander, before most of us on PB were born.
(*) OK, Treaty of Tordesillas. My name is better.
It will probably be higher but 8.4 is too big.
If Sunak had interpreted his minders as indicating "fellatio", who would he have specified as the donor?
They're 600,256 votes away which is an enormous number when you're assuming that they'll get a majority of 1 in 326 seats with say 7050 Labour expected voters deciding on the day they'll vote Tory.
Away from
0 seats 270,000 fewer
100 seats 7,000 (More)
200 146,000
300 476,000
400 1,047,000
500 1.85 million
632 3.4 million
I must say I fear that the election won’t be as disastrous for the Conservatives as we are (nearly) all expecting (hoping)!
Although there aren’t nearly as many Conservative window posters as usual, locally, and a lot more Labour ones.
My suggestion on one way would be to back the Tories over two x 50 seat bands, i.e. to win 50 - 99 seats or 100 - 149 seats.
Based on staking say £20 in total (your call of course) and based on the current odds available, these two bets would be placed as follows:
Bookie Tory Seats Odds Stake Win / (Lose)
BETFRED 50 - 99 2.3 (1.3/1) £11.10 £14.43 / (£11.10)
AK Bets 100 - 149 2.875 (15/8) £8.90 £16.69 / (£8.90)
On the basis of just about all recent polling, one or other of these two x 50 seat band bets will prove successful, thereby providing a virtually identical profit in either case of £5.53/£5.59. That's a return in 24 hours of 27.8%, which has to beat working for a living!
https://fullofplants.com/the-best-vegan-foie-gras/
Purely on the possibility that he will be a Michael Howard, not a David Cameron. That's assuming he keeps his seat.
Theme tune by T-Swizzle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Atdzfj8LcuY
No sign of it happening.
There are also Marmite sandwiches.
"So Tory voter, when did you stop eating babies?"
"Or by cherry picking the Verian poll"