How do you place a low risk bet on tomorrow's G.E. just for a bit of fun.
My suggestion on one way would be to back the Tories over two x 50 seat bands, i.e. to win 50 - 99 seats or 100 - 149 seats. Based on staking say £20 in total (your call of course) and based on the current odds available, these two bets would be placed as follows:
On the basis of just about all recent polling, one or other of these two x 50 seat band bets will prove successful, thereby providing a virtually identical profit in either case of £5.53/£5.59. That's a return in 24 hours of 27.8%, which has to beat working for a living!
It shows Labour 420 seats, Conservative 123, Liberal Democrat 57, SNP 16, Reform UK 8, Plaid Cymru 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 192. The forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240703ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv As with other forecasts, a lot of seats are predicted to have tiny majorities. Small adjustments to the polling data or methodology can make surprisingly big changes to the result, although never enough to either affect the overall result (a Labour majority of around 190 to 250 seats), or to match some of the more extreme MRP seat projections.
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Goodwin: Britain Bowtie Bob
LLG 55 to RefCon 36 is actually fairly bang on the rest of the pollsters! It's just a bit more fashed up (and greened up for good measure).
But why are you rolling up separate parties into one?
Because as we've discussed before it's remarkable how much closer those combined shares are across pollsters than the individual party totals. It filters out the noise. And there is, statistically, way more switching within those "blocs" than between them.
During the campaign there has been a 2-3% swing away from LLG towards the right wing parties.
i think this poll could be the final nail in Goodwin`s rather thin credibility,
I think its a calculated gamble from him. If the poll is wrong people forget about it. If hes right though he becomes the oracle of the campaign and his influence massively increases.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.
It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.
I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.
Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
What you are of course failing to engage with is that several of those categories, and especially the economy, have been irreparably damaged by our withdrawal from the largest trading bloc.
The economic arguments, which were never properly aired during the 2016 campaign, will become persuasive once more.
It’s only a matter of time whether you like or not, or indeed whether you try to convince yourself or not.
Money talks.
Largest trading bloc?
The EU isn't even close to the world's largest trading bloc.
Indeed once the UK finishing accession to the CPTPP, we'll be in an even larger bloc than the EU and there's other, larger blocs out there too.
It's the closest large trading block to the UK.
If the EU had stuck to being a trading block like CPTPP instead of attempting to become an Empiric State, extending its tentacles into virtually every aspect of government, we would not have had a problem in the first place,
But if you have been disfranchised by the selection of election date you certainly have every right to moan.
Or, you could argue that anybody booking a holiday without sorting out a postal vote in the ample time since the election has been called has decided to disenfranchise themselves...
That's simply not true.
The postal votes cannot be issued until all candidates have been confirmed.
Which was weeks ago. Apart from those councils where there have been delivery cock-ups, most postals have been out for two weeks.
And the application could have been made once the election was called.
My son applied an hour or two after Sunak removed his suit to send to the dry cleaners.
It might have arrived on Monday but he is working for the BBC in Wrexham this week. He phoned up every day last week and the week before.
Would The Leon Ex-Wife Manoeuvre assist?
No he would like to vote rather than create a tall tale to regale to an adoring audience on an internet blog.
If there was possibly a way I would 100% vote for Jason Beer to be PM. Plus if he wanted to run the country on his own perhaps Sam Stein as Chancellor and Ed Henry as everything else then so be it.
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Goodwin: Britain Bowtie Bob
LLG 55 to RefCon 36 is actually fairly bang on the rest of the pollsters! It's just a bit more fashed up (and greened up for good measure).
But why are you rolling up separate parties into one?
Because the PB Tories have been highlighting, for a considerable time, the combined Ref/Con vote as the potential Con vote in the election. Ha Ha!
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Goodwin: Britain Bowtie Bob
LLG 55 to RefCon 36 is actually fairly bang on the rest of the pollsters! It's just a bit more fashed up (and greened up for good measure).
But why are you rolling up separate parties into one?
Because the PB Tories have been highlighting, for a considerable time, the combined Ref/Con vote as the potential Con vote in the election. Ha Ha!
Reform is roughly 50/50 ex Conservative and Labour Core Voters, essentially the socially conservative wing of both parties previously represented by the likes of Frank Field and Bill Cash.
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
Not sure if some of the Turkey players and fans are deliberately trying to make themselves unpopular in Germany, I really hope they get eliminated next round. A Germany vs Turkey final would be a nightmare.
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Goodwin: Britain Bowtie Bob
LLG 55 to RefCon 36 is actually fairly bang on the rest of the pollsters! It's just a bit more fashed up (and greened up for good measure).
But why are you rolling up separate parties into one?
Because the PB Tories have been highlighting, for a considerable time, the combined Ref/Con vote as the potential Con vote in the election. Ha Ha!
Reform is roughly 50/50 ex Conservative and Labour Core Voters.
Heritage Foundation president celebrates Supreme Court presidential immunity ruling: "We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be" https://x.com/mmfa/status/1808306913291260118
I've had a couple of quid at 50 on Steve Barclay next Tory leader (purely on @HYUFD posts).
My largest bet on that market is Patel at 25/1 (bet placed a while ago).
I like this. I have a few small-stake bets at odds between 50 and 150-1 on relatively sensible Tories who are likely to keep their seats - Coutinho, Trott and Williamson - with the intention of trading out post-Tory bloodbath
I've had a couple of quid at 50 on Steve Barclay next Tory leader (purely on @HYUFD posts).
My largest bet on that market is Patel at 25/1 (bet placed a while ago).
I like this. I have a few small-stake bets at odds between 50 and 150-1 on relatively sensible Tories who are likely to keep their seats - Coutinho, Trott and Williamson - with the intention of trading out post-Tory bloodbath
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Goodwin: Britain Bowtie Bob
LLG 55 to RefCon 36 is actually fairly bang on the rest of the pollsters! It's just a bit more fashed up (and greened up for good measure).
But why are you rolling up separate parties into one?
Because the PB Tories have been highlighting, for a considerable time, the combined Ref/Con vote as the potential Con vote in the election. Ha Ha!
Reform is roughly 50/50 ex Conservative and Labour Core Voters.
Roughly 0% ex Libdem or Green.
2017 Labour or 2017 Tory -> 2019 Tory -> Reform.
Yes, the Tories forgot their majority in 2019 was purely down to Eurosceptic voters putting the country first by voting tactically for the Tories, not actually supporting the Tories (altough that might have come if they had played their cards right and not treated red wall MPs and constituents as embarrasing lower order Oiks to be humoured so long as they did'nt rock the boat and come up with too many ghastly ideas.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.
It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.
I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.
Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
What you are of course failing to engage with is that several of those categories, and especially the economy, have been irreparably damaged by our withdrawal from the largest trading bloc.
The economic arguments, which were never properly aired during the 2016 campaign, will become persuasive once more.
It’s only a matter of time whether you like or not, or indeed whether you try to convince yourself or not.
Money talks.
Largest trading bloc?
The EU isn't even close to the world's largest trading bloc.
Indeed once the UK finishing accession to the CPTPP, we'll be in an even larger bloc than the EU and there's other, larger blocs out there too.
It's the closest large trading block to the UK.
If the EU had stuck to being a trading block like CPTPP instead of attempting to become an Empiric State, extending its tentacles into virtually every aspect of government, we would not have had a problem in the first place,
So how can the die-hard remainers be so emotionally attached to a trading block? It must be those tentacles.
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
That is, though, a classic argument of the right. Left of centre parties mustn't dare be politically successful: that will provoke the far right. And if the left somehow has the temerity to assume power, they'd better do all the things the far right want because otherwise they'll really provoke the far right. And then they'll be sorry.
I was seeing some of that here last night about Trump too. "Maybe the best result would be a Trump landslide because that way there's risk of unrest".
It's the same attitude many have about Putin. Give him everything he wants or he might get cross.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.
It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.
I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.
Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
What you are of course failing to engage with is that several of those categories, and especially the economy, have been irreparably damaged by our withdrawal from the largest trading bloc.
The economic arguments, which were never properly aired during the 2016 campaign, will become persuasive once more.
It’s only a matter of time whether you like or not, or indeed whether you try to convince yourself or not.
Money talks.
Largest trading bloc?
The EU isn't even close to the world's largest trading bloc.
Indeed once the UK finishing accession to the CPTPP, we'll be in an even larger bloc than the EU and there's other, larger blocs out there too.
It's the closest large trading block to the UK.
If the EU had stuck to being a trading block like CPTPP instead of attempting to become an Empiric State, extending its tentacles into virtually every aspect of government, we would not have had a problem in the first place,
"Empiric"
Who wouldn't want a government relying solely on observation and experiment?
Those who are all about gut, 'common sense' and feels I guess.
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
I agree. I think a healthier result would be for the Tories to remain the official opposition, and preferably for Reform to finish behind the Lib Dems in the popular vote.
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
I hold no candle for the Lib Dems. But I absolutely don't go along with this "don't vote for the party whose values align with yours, because it might enflame the right". It smacks of appeasement.
Heritage Foundation president celebrates Supreme Court presidential immunity ruling: "We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be" https://x.com/mmfa/status/1808306913291260118
Basically like a giant version of what happened in Fiji.
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Goodwin: Britain Bowtie Bob
Same absurd polling results too.
Goodwin is either reaching a set of people other pollsters aren't reaching or his methodology is wrong. I suspect it's the latter but in this election I haven't got a clue, I think a lot of people aren't bothered.
So many predictions, as is only right on the day before the Day. I won't add to the pile except to say my PB comp entry of Lab 116 majority looks like a lowball. I'd put in more like 150 now. I'm happy with my biggest spread bet, long of LD seats @ 40. My only constituency bet is Jez to fall short. Happy with that too.
I have some bad long term pro-Con positions from 2021 so my mission is to make enough profit to nullify the losses coming from those. 🤞
One thing I am certain of is our PM on Friday will be Keir Starmer. After a succession of poshboys, charlatans, fantasists and lightweights the country will for the forseeable future be in the hands of this decent, diligent, highly capable, assured yet unassuming son of a toolmaker. Ah bisto.
I plan to luxuriate in the relief, security and contentment of this delightful state of affairs for at least 48 hours before going back to chewing my nails off, fingers and toes if I can reach them, about WH24.
Glad to hear about Corbyn. I have a sizable bet against him winning but have been wavering on this lately. How sure are you that he will lose? Your neck of the woods I think?
It's next door, yes. I give him about a 25% chance. Be surprised but not shocked if he won.
I had Labour at the door for the fourth time about ten minutes ago, while Corbyn's lot have been round five times. Similar amounts of leaflets from each, too.
Corbyn's been doing rallies at the weekends, which Labour haven't matched - but otherwise, the levels of effort don't seem to be too far apart.
Your 25% chance for Corbyn feels about right to me - but it's worth noting that EC are now predicting a narrow Corbyn victory.
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
I hold no candle for the Lib Dems. But I absolutely don't go along with this "don't vote for the party whose values align with yours, because it might enflame the right". It smacks of appeasement.
I wouldn't suggest people not vote for the party they want! All I'm saying is the Lib Dems as official opposition wouldn't probably be the ideal scenario some think it would be.
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
I hold no candle for the Lib Dems. But I absolutely don't go along with this "don't vote for the party whose values align with yours, because it might enflame the right". It smacks of appeasement.
The right wing have no such qualms. If there is a sniff of power and influence they will take it. Do they worry loudly about provoking the far left? I think not.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
It's sort of slightly endearing, unless he was just scrabbling around in his brain for the last thing he could remember eating that wasn't posh, and alighted on sarnies.
lol, Yes, he was yearning to scream “Lobster Thermidor” and his team are miming desperately behind the questioner the act of eating a sandwich. Luckily none mimed eating a baguette as he could have interpreted that in a very unfortunate way.
Lobster Thermidor isn't posh, it's weird, archaic and naff
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Allegedly, but the pork pie treat stuff would indicate that's as big a lie as any of his others.
There was also some nonsense about his usual Nando’s order when he was attempting to cosplay a pleb earlier in the campaign.
I can’t recall (ie don’t care about) the exact details but it was something like half a baby pheasant in extra mild peri-peri sauce and suckling snow leopard for mains with sides of chips and peas sprinkled with powdered rhinoceros horn, washed down with a bottle of alcohol-free Chablis, bottomless glasses of disability benefits claimants’ tears (free refills ftw!) and Fentiman’s cola for the girls.
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Goodwin: Britain Bowtie Bob
LLG 55 to RefCon 36 is actually fairly bang on the rest of the pollsters! It's just a bit more fashed up (and greened up for good measure).
But why are you rolling up separate parties into one?
Because the PB Tories have been highlighting, for a considerable time, the combined Ref/Con vote as the potential Con vote in the election. Ha Ha!
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
I hold no candle for the Lib Dems. But I absolutely don't go along with this "don't vote for the party whose values align with yours, because it might enflame the right". It smacks of appeasement.
I wouldn't suggest people not vote for the party they want! All I'm saying is the Lib Dems as official opposition wouldn't probably be the ideal scenario some think it would be.
Don't worry, it's not going to happen.
But if the Lib Dems did come in second then they bloody well should be the official opposition.
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
I hold no candle for the Lib Dems. But I absolutely don't go along with this "don't vote for the party whose values align with yours, because it might enflame the right". It smacks of appeasement.
I wouldn't suggest people not vote for the party they want! All I'm saying is the Lib Dems as official opposition wouldn't probably be the ideal scenario some think it would be.
I'm sure you don't. But we see this argument promulgated by people who *do* make that suggestion, all the time.
The polls pretty much agree on the Labour and LD shares. Where they don't agree is the Con and Ref shares.
Not surprising. It must be fiendishly difficult.
Especially as anyone working in a lot of places (eg public sector) will have in the back of their mind that if they say Reform and get doxxed, they will be in hot water.
Not saying it is remotely likely that pollsters will dox them. But once you get in the habit of not telling strangers (or untrusted aquaintences) you are planning to vote Fargle, you won't switch out of that mode if a pollster cold calls you or emails you.
Probably one reason Reform are a bit higher with Yougov. If you have taken the positive step to register you are probably less likely (but not wholly unlikely) to be reticent.
Remember the couple that had foster children removed frpm their care because they were UKIP members?
Heritage Foundation president celebrates Supreme Court presidential immunity ruling: "We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be" https://x.com/mmfa/status/1808306913291260118
i think this poll could be the final nail in Goodwin`s rather thin credibility,
I think its a calculated gamble from him. If the poll is wrong people forget about it. If hes right though he becomes the oracle of the campaign and his influence massively increases.
If.
TBH, it is pretty clear that he is not fishing in the same water as any other pollster. As the in house RefUk pollster, he should now simply be dismissed as letting his bias give his results. Perhaps the BPC might take an interest?
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
I hold no candle for the Lib Dems. But I absolutely don't go along with this "don't vote for the party whose values align with yours, because it might enflame the right". It smacks of appeasement.
I wouldn't suggest people not vote for the party they want! All I'm saying is the Lib Dems as official opposition wouldn't probably be the ideal scenario some think it would be.
I think in the face of a majority of 200 or so, the amount of influence you have from being the second party is roughly equal to the amount of influence you have from being the third party and also roughly equal to zero.
I think turnout will be low. I think Labour will have a record landslide in seats. I think that landslide will come on less that 38% of the vote. I think the SNP will hold the majority of Scottish seats. I think Liz Truss will lose her seat I think there will be recounts in at least 20 seats. I think Farage will win Clacton with a bigger majority than Rishi Sunak in Richmond and Northallerton. I think there will be very different voting patterns in different regions, with the Lib Dems doing well in Wessex and generally badly in the Midlands and industrial north and North East. I think Labour sweep the red wall, but have some surprise losses in areas with high ethnic minority voters. Some losses in blue wall seats, but Tories still comfortably ahead of Lib Dems in seats numbers. Reform win 5, Greens win 3. We will see in about 36 hours.
I agree with all of that except Reform 5 seats. I think 1 or 2.
How many recounts do we usually have? I must say I fear that the election won’t be as disastrous for the Conservatives as we are (nearly) all expecting (hoping)!
Although there aren’t nearly as many Conservative window posters as usual, locally, and a lot more Labour ones.
This is an election not to share your Tory vote intention with anybody but the polling booth.
"So Tory voter, when did you stop eating babies?"
Will the shy Tories be in enough numbers so that the planes will be flying to Rwanda next week?
No. But the ELE joy espoused here will probably result in dreams crushed.
Including a good number of wafer thin majorities, I'd be thinking the 150-199 seats band looks value.
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Goodwin: Britain Bowtie Bob
Sorry, are you claming he deliberately creates fake polls? That's quite the libellous accusation, and you should be careful, for the sake of PB's legal fees
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
I hold no candle for the Lib Dems. But I absolutely don't go along with this "don't vote for the party whose values align with yours, because it might enflame the right". It smacks of appeasement.
Also the problem is that FPTP has the potential to throw up results like this because it is not a proportional system. Indeed, its previous supporters claimed to support it because it delivered strong majorities. I don't understand why previously staunch supporters of FPTP have suddenly decided that it's selling point has become a huge problem. There must be a reason somewhere but I just can't see it!
Wow, if that verifies then Reform are well placed to overtake the Tories, comprehensively, in 2028, and possibly win the next election
Not trying to be nasty but you're talking about REF winning the 2033 election and given the way Farage had drank and smoked all his life will he even be alive then?
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
It's sort of slightly endearing, unless he was just scrabbling around in his brain for the last thing he could remember eating that wasn't posh, and alighted on sarnies.
lol, Yes, he was yearning to scream “Lobster Thermidor” and his team are miming desperately behind the questioner the act of eating a sandwich. Luckily none mimed eating a baguette as he could have interpreted that in a very unfortunate way.
Lobster Thermidor isn't posh, it's weird, archaic and naff
Heritage Foundation president celebrates Supreme Court presidential immunity ruling: "We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be" https://x.com/mmfa/status/1808306913291260118
Basically like a giant version of what happened in Fiji.
Not really. Fiji has quite the history of coups. The US right are openly talking of rewriting a constitution which has endured centuries, even through a bloody civil war, by force.
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
I hold no candle for the Lib Dems. But I absolutely don't go along with this "don't vote for the party whose values align with yours, because it might enflame the right". It smacks of appeasement.
Marginalising the right is not a good idea because it means they can promise the earth, safe in the knowledge that they never need to deliver, and are therefore perfect vehicles for sociopathic grifters like Nige.
There are a number of quite possible outcomes tomorrow that could add considerable popular groundswell for electoral reform.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
It's sort of slightly endearing, unless he was just scrabbling around in his brain for the last thing he could remember eating that wasn't posh, and alighted on sarnies.
lol, Yes, he was yearning to scream “Lobster Thermidor” and his team are miming desperately behind the questioner the act of eating a sandwich. Luckily none mimed eating a baguette as he could have interpreted that in a very unfortunate way.
Lobster Thermidor isn't posh, it's weird, archaic and naff
It’s not posh indeed but is the sort of food that would trigger people as a perception of lobster being a food that is expensive and thus showing, once again, that he is out of touch.
Rishi of course is not posh, just wealthy and well educated.
Wow, if that verifies then Reform are well placed to overtake the Tories, comprehensively, in 2028, and possibly win the next election
Not trying to be nasty but you're talking about REF winning the 2033 election and given the way Farage had drank and smoked all his life will he even be alive then?
No, the 2028 election. And I don't think Farage will be leader. Or - he shouldn't be. Reform need to find their Jordan Bardella
Heritage Foundation president celebrates Supreme Court presidential immunity ruling: "We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be" https://x.com/mmfa/status/1808306913291260118
Basically like a giant version of what happened in Fiji.
Not really. Fiji has quite the history of coups. The US right are openly talking of rewriting a constitution which has endured centuries, even through a bloody civil war, by force.
The Fiji Coup I am talking about is the 1987 one that happened after the Party representing ethnic Indians won the election and the native Fijians basically said tolerance for ethnics is one thing, letting them decide how the country is run is another matter.
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Goodwin: Britain Bowtie Bob
LLG 55 to RefCon 36 is actually fairly bang on the rest of the pollsters! It's just a bit more fashed up (and greened up for good measure).
But why are you rolling up separate parties into one?
Because as we've discussed before it's remarkable how much closer those combined shares are across pollsters than the individual party totals. It filters out the noise. And there is, statistically, way more switching within those "blocs" than between them.
During the campaign there has been a 2-3% swing away from LLG towards the right wing parties.
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
I hold no candle for the Lib Dems. But I absolutely don't go along with this "don't vote for the party whose values align with yours, because it might enflame the right". It smacks of appeasement.
I wouldn't suggest people not vote for the party they want! All I'm saying is the Lib Dems as official opposition wouldn't probably be the ideal scenario some think it would be.
I'm sure you don't. But we see this argument promulgated by people who *do* make that suggestion, all the time.
It'll be hilarious if it happens a) they'll have been handed this by vote efficiency under FPTP with other parties potentially having a higher % of the overall vote, they may go wobbly about PR, b) their true political alignment will become clear rather than a local edit c) there'll be some absolute gems in the 50-60 additional LD MPs to rival Lembit Opik and others.
I’ve bet £50 on the Conservatives winning 100-149, at 9/4. £50 on the Conservatives winning 150-199, at 11/2. £25 on Bob Blackman retaining Harrow East at 3/1.
Wow, if that verifies then Reform are well placed to overtake the Tories, comprehensively, in 2028, and possibly win the next election
Not trying to be nasty but you're talking about REF winning the 2033 election and given the way Farage had drank and smoked all his life will he even be alive then?
No, the 2028 election. And I don't think Farage will be leader. Or - he shouldn't be. Reform need to find their Jordan Bardella
Oh right, I thought you mean REF ovetaking the Tories in 2028 and winning the election after that.
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
That is, though, a classic argument of the right. Left of centre parties mustn't dare be politically successful: that will provoke the far right. And if the left somehow has the temerity to assume power, they'd better do all the things the far right want because otherwise they'll really provoke the far right. And then they'll be sorry.
I was seeing some of that here last night about Trump too. "Maybe the best result would be a Trump landslide because that way there's risk of unrest".
It's the same attitude many have about Putin. Give him everything he wants or he might get cross.
Sorry that's a complete misunderstanding. The point is that in a democracy you ideally want a parliament that is broadly reflective of the country as a whole. Now we all know that FPTP is imperfect in that regard. But there comes a point at which credibility starts to be lost. I think a government and opposition with barely half the vote and in broad agreement in outlook would start to test that.
I'm not saying Davey should turn the opportunity down. He could point out that the Lib Dems still favour PR. But it won't be even close to representative of the country and there ought to be a little unease about that.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
It's sort of slightly endearing, unless he was just scrabbling around in his brain for the last thing he could remember eating that wasn't posh, and alighted on sarnies.
lol, Yes, he was yearning to scream “Lobster Thermidor” and his team are miming desperately behind the questioner the act of eating a sandwich. Luckily none mimed eating a baguette as he could have interpreted that in a very unfortunate way.
Lobster Thermidor isn't posh, it's weird, archaic and naff
It’s not posh indeed but is the sort of food that would trigger people as a perception of lobster being a food that is expensive and thus showing, once again, that he is out of touch.
Rishi of course is not posh, just wealthy and well educated.
You can get Lobster Thermidor at Wiltons for £75 so that is certainly posh-adjacent.
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Goodwin: Britain Bowtie Bob
LLG 55 to RefCon 36 is actually fairly bang on the rest of the pollsters! It's just a bit more fashed up (and greened up for good measure).
But why are you rolling up separate parties into one?
Because as we've discussed before it's remarkable how much closer those combined shares are across pollsters than the individual party totals. It filters out the noise. And there is, statistically, way more switching within those "blocs" than between them.
During the campaign there has been a 2-3% swing away from LLG towards the right wing parties.
Probably a net flow of Labour voters to Reform
Yes, not people who voted Labour in 2019, but Con voters from 2019, who were previously intending to vote Labour.
Wow. So not only handing over their territory, but denying them the prospect of defending the bits they are allowed to keep.
This would be an enforced surrender, not a deal.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/02/nato-second-trump-term-00164517 ...A swift resolution of the two-and-a-half-year Ukraine conflict would also likely play a key role in Trump’s plans for NATO. As part of a plan for Ukraine that has not been previously reported, the presumptive GOP nominee is mulling a deal whereby NATO commits to no further eastward expansion — specifically into Ukraine and Georgia — and negotiates with Russian President Vladimir Putin over how much Ukrainian territory Moscow can keep, according to two other Trump-aligned national security experts...
So many predictions, as is only right on the day before the Day. I won't add to the pile except to say my PB comp entry of Lab 116 majority looks like a lowball. I'd put in more like 150 now. I'm happy with my biggest spread bet, long of LD seats @ 40. My only constituency bet is Jez to fall short. Happy with that too.
I have some bad long term pro-Con positions from 2021 so my mission is to make enough profit to nullify the losses coming from those. 🤞
One thing I am certain of is our PM on Friday will be Keir Starmer. After a succession of poshboys, charlatans, fantasists and lightweights the country will for the forseeable future be in the hands of this decent, diligent, highly capable, assured yet unassuming son of a toolmaker. Ah bisto.
I plan to luxuriate in the relief, security and contentment of this delightful state of affairs for at least 48 hours before going back to chewing my nails off, fingers and toes if I can reach them, about WH24.
Glad to hear about Corbyn. I have a sizable bet against him winning but have been wavering on this lately. How sure are you that he will lose? Your neck of the woods I think?
It's next door, yes. I give him about a 25% chance. Be surprised but not shocked if he won.
I had Labour at the door for the fourth time about ten minutes ago, while Corbyn's lot have been round five times. Similar amounts of leaflets from each, too.
Corbyn's been doing rallies at the weekends, which Labour haven't matched - but otherwise, the levels of effort don't seem to be too far apart.
Your 25% chance for Corbyn feels about right to me - but it's worth noting that EC are now predicting a narrow Corbyn victory.
Betfair has him about 2.5 now, I see. It is a tricky one to weigh up but that'd be some achievement to poll higher than his party in a supersafe seat. And Left Twitter are getting the excuses in early so ... But we'll see.
I've had a couple of quid at 50 on Steve Barclay next Tory leader (purely on @HYUFD posts).
My largest bet on that market is Patel at 25/1 (bet placed a while ago).
I like this. I have a few small-stake bets at odds between 50 and 150-1 on relatively sensible Tories who are likely to keep their seats - Coutinho, Trott and Williamson - with the intention of trading out post-Tory bloodbath
Williamson’s usual role in a Tory leadership contest is to act as a sort of Poundland Peter Mandelson-type figure (more Frank Spencer than Frank Underwood tbh) for the eventual winner in return for a temporary seat on the front bench.
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
That is, though, a classic argument of the right. Left of centre parties mustn't dare be politically successful: that will provoke the far right. And if the left somehow has the temerity to assume power, they'd better do all the things the far right want because otherwise they'll really provoke the far right. And then they'll be sorry.
I was seeing some of that here last night about Trump too. "Maybe the best result would be a Trump landslide because that way there's risk of unrest".
It's the same attitude many have about Putin. Give him everything he wants or he might get cross.
Sorry that's a complete misunderstanding. The point is that in a democracy you ideally want a parliament that is broadly reflective of the country as a whole. Now we all know that FPTP is imperfect in that regard. But there comes a point at which credibility starts to be lost. I think a government and opposition with barely half the vote and in broad agreement in outlook would start to test that.
I'm not saying Davey should turn the opportunity down. He could point out that the Lib Dems still favour PR. But it won't be even close to representative of the country and there ought to be a little unease about that.
The Lib Dems would almost certainly be under-represented in seats vs their vote share. But it's funny how the right are now loudly worrying about FPTP when it never remotely bothered them before. "Strong government"!
For the last decade the SNP have been getting 2 automatic questions in PMQs and all the short money involved in being the third largest party on roughly 4% of the national vote.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
It's sort of slightly endearing, unless he was just scrabbling around in his brain for the last thing he could remember eating that wasn't posh, and alighted on sarnies.
lol, Yes, he was yearning to scream “Lobster Thermidor” and his team are miming desperately behind the questioner the act of eating a sandwich. Luckily none mimed eating a baguette as he could have interpreted that in a very unfortunate way.
Lobster Thermidor isn't posh, it's weird, archaic and naff
It’s not posh indeed but is the sort of food that would trigger people as a perception of lobster being a food that is expensive and thus showing, once again, that he is out of touch.
Rishi of course is not posh, just wealthy and well educated.
You can get Lobster Thermidor at Wiltons for £75 so that is certainly posh-adjacent.
Expensive and aspirational. Shepherd’s pie and green beans is more posh.
Posh food now would likely be something Nordic or East European, with the all important "twist"
Borscht with artisanal Borough sourdough and skyr
Nah that's hipster food. Posh food is something else.
Hipster is basically posh these days, cf Glastonbury. Only ancient people revere naff haute cuisine like "lobster thermidor"
For old fashioned posh that is STILL posh I'd go for grouse or snipe or woodcock or venison you yourself shot dead, or wild salmon, or native oysters
It would have been fun if Sunak had said "my favourite meal is a dozen Helford natives on the half shell, and then partridge with game chips, I try to eat it every day"
Wow. So not only handing over their territory, but denying them the prospect of defending the bits they are allowed to keep.
This would be an enforced surrender, not a deal.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/02/nato-second-trump-term-00164517 ...A swift resolution of the two-and-a-half-year Ukraine conflict would also likely play a key role in Trump’s plans for NATO. As part of a plan for Ukraine that has not been previously reported, the presumptive GOP nominee is mulling a deal whereby NATO commits to no further eastward expansion — specifically into Ukraine and Georgia — and negotiates with Russian President Vladimir Putin over how much Ukrainian territory Moscow can keep, according to two other Trump-aligned national security experts...
Putin surely cannot believe his luck.
Long term that all brings WW3 much closer. It's Sudetenland stuff.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
Maybe they expected him to say foie gras topped with gold leaf for every meal...disappointed when he didn't.
Isn´t he vegetarian anyway?
Makes for a deeply unsatisfying set of sandwich options...although it avoids the spectacle of him eating a bacon sarnie that has proved so toxic in the past.
Does he eat fish? Prawn sandwiches are very tasty.
There are also Marmite sandwiches.
Sandwiches involving high quality bread and stilton can be a food of the gods, take moments to do and cost little compared with petrol station's finest.
Had decent bread and hummus from the community shop yesterday with sliced gherkins and tomatoes with coarsely shredded fresh basil.
Hummus and sun-dried tomatoes make for a godly combo on bread.
Well that's incredible because I'm having hummus for lunch today. What are the odds?
100%, since you have already decided.
Betting on that sort of thing could get you into trouble!
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
It's sort of slightly endearing, unless he was just scrabbling around in his brain for the last thing he could remember eating that wasn't posh, and alighted on sarnies.
lol, Yes, he was yearning to scream “Lobster Thermidor” and his team are miming desperately behind the questioner the act of eating a sandwich. Luckily none mimed eating a baguette as he could have interpreted that in a very unfortunate way.
Lobster Thermidor isn't posh, it's weird, archaic and naff
Tis lobster abuse
Yes, it's a really overrated way to serve an often overrated shellfish
I've had lobster loads, and it rarely lives up to its reputation - or price
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
It's sort of slightly endearing, unless he was just scrabbling around in his brain for the last thing he could remember eating that wasn't posh, and alighted on sarnies.
lol, Yes, he was yearning to scream “Lobster Thermidor” and his team are miming desperately behind the questioner the act of eating a sandwich. Luckily none mimed eating a baguette as he could have interpreted that in a very unfortunate way.
Lobster Thermidor isn't posh, it's weird, archaic and naff
Yes, mixing a delicate, beautiful flavour of lobster with – er – cheese is a culinary nonsense.
The dish deserves to be resigned to the annals of history.
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
That is, though, a classic argument of the right. Left of centre parties mustn't dare be politically successful: that will provoke the far right. And if the left somehow has the temerity to assume power, they'd better do all the things the far right want because otherwise they'll really provoke the far right. And then they'll be sorry.
I was seeing some of that here last night about Trump too. "Maybe the best result would be a Trump landslide because that way there's risk of unrest".
It's the same attitude many have about Putin. Give him everything he wants or he might get cross.
Sorry that's a complete misunderstanding. The point is that in a democracy you ideally want a parliament that is broadly reflective of the country as a whole. Now we all know that FPTP is imperfect in that regard. But there comes a point at which credibility starts to be lost. I think a government and opposition with barely half the vote and in broad agreement in outlook would start to test that.
I'm not saying Davey should turn the opportunity down. He could point out that the Lib Dems still favour PR. But it won't be even close to representative of the country and there ought to be a little unease about that.
The Lib Dems would almost certainly be under-represented in seats vs their vote share. But it's funny how the right are now loudly worrying about FPTP when it never remotely bothered them before. "Strong government"!
For the last decade the SNP have been getting 2 automatic questions in PMQs and all the short money involved in being the third largest party on roughly 4% of the national vote.
If Con survive this election, eventually FPTP will see them come back and Labour collapse. What FPTP gives it can take away just as easily and Labour would do well to remember that when they take office (but of course they won't because governments with large majorities never do - Look at the Conservatives after winning 80 seat majority)
Of course that's a big if because there comes a point with FPTP where the damage probably isn't survivable and that point would probably be Lib-Dems becoming the official Opposition.
i think this poll could be the final nail in Goodwin`s rather thin credibility,
I think its a calculated gamble from him. If the poll is wrong people forget about it. If hes right though he becomes the oracle of the campaign and his influence massively increases.
If.
TBH, it is pretty clear that he is not fishing in the same water as any other pollster. As the in house RefUk pollster, he should now simply be dismissed as letting his bias give his results. Perhaps the BPC might take an interest?
We haven't even seen the actual result yet! He's a bit of an outlier and his role in being a pollster and also simultaneously boostering for Reform is a bit odd but let's get some perspective here. he's hardly miles away from the rest is he?
Compared to the polling average that Sean Fear helpfully put below he has the Tories -5 and Reform +4.
What a surprise that the Tories are FOUR POINTS below Reform in his final poll. Goodwin is an absolute clown. Does he really think that people don't see through him?
Goodwin: Britain Bowtie Bob
”Hello, this is Goodwin polling…will you be voting for this dynamic exciting new Reform Party or for the tired, discredited Conservatives?”
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
It's sort of slightly endearing, unless he was just scrabbling around in his brain for the last thing he could remember eating that wasn't posh, and alighted on sarnies.
lol, Yes, he was yearning to scream “Lobster Thermidor” and his team are miming desperately behind the questioner the act of eating a sandwich. Luckily none mimed eating a baguette as he could have interpreted that in a very unfortunate way.
Lobster Thermidor isn't posh, it's weird, archaic and naff
Hm. I can imagine how its archaic weirdness might lead it to come back into fashion, in the way that beef wellington sort-of has.
I could absolutely see somewhere like Quo Vadis or The Devonshire doing it at some point...
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
That is, though, a classic argument of the right. Left of centre parties mustn't dare be politically successful: that will provoke the far right. And if the left somehow has the temerity to assume power, they'd better do all the things the far right want because otherwise they'll really provoke the far right. And then they'll be sorry.
I was seeing some of that here last night about Trump too. "Maybe the best result would be a Trump landslide because that way there's risk of unrest".
It's the same attitude many have about Putin. Give him everything he wants or he might get cross.
Sorry that's a complete misunderstanding. The point is that in a democracy you ideally want a parliament that is broadly reflective of the country as a whole. Now we all know that FPTP is imperfect in that regard. But there comes a point at which credibility starts to be lost. I think a government and opposition with barely half the vote and in broad agreement in outlook would start to test that.
I'm not saying Davey should turn the opportunity down. He could point out that the Lib Dems still favour PR. But it won't be even close to representative of the country and there ought to be a little unease about that.
We don't really have a democracy in that sense. We have 650 little democracies that send an MP to parliament. After that it breaks down rather spectacularly - unelected Lords, a King and so on.
I don't disagree with your broader point, but I also think it's a good thing that each MP has to win a personal mandate to afford them authority and so that we don't flood parliament with numpties picked from party member lists.
Posh food now would likely be something Nordic or East European, with the all important "twist"
Borscht with artisanal Borough sourdough and skyr
Nah that's hipster food. Posh food is something else.
Hipster is basically posh these days, cf Glastonbury. Only ancient people revere naff haute cuisine like "lobster thermidor"
For old fashioned posh that is STILL posh I'd go for grouse or snipe or woodcock or venison you yourself shot dead, or wild salmon, or native oysters
It would have been fun if Sunak had said "my favourite meal is a dozen Helford natives on the half shell, and then partridge with game chips, I try to eat it every day"
He should answer as the family doctor prescribes in Buddenbrooks: a little roast pigeon, a little French bread.
Since reading that years ago I've occasionally made it for myself when the family are away. Pigeon breasts with plenty of black pepper on some baguette with a bit of butter, letting the blood soak into the bread. I recommend it.
I think turnout will be low. I think Labour will have a record landslide in seats. I think that landslide will come on less that 38% of the vote. I think the SNP will hold the majority of Scottish seats. I think Liz Truss will lose her seat I think there will be recounts in at least 20 seats. I think Farage will win Clacton with a bigger majority than Rishi Sunak in Richmond and Northallerton. I think there will be very different voting patterns in different regions, with the Lib Dems doing well in Wessex and generally badly in the Midlands and industrial north and North East. I think Labour sweep the red wall, but have some surprise losses in areas with high ethnic minority voters. Some losses in blue wall seats, but Tories still comfortably ahead of Lib Dems in seats numbers. Reform win 5, Greens win 3. We will see in about 36 hours.
I agree with all of that except Reform 5 seats. I think 1 or 2.
How many recounts do we usually have? I must say I fear that the election won’t be as disastrous for the Conservatives as we are (nearly) all expecting (hoping)!
Although there aren’t nearly as many Conservative window posters as usual, locally, and a lot more Labour ones.
This is an election not to share your Tory vote intention with anybody but the polling booth.
"So Tory voter, when did you stop eating babies?"
Will the shy Tories be in enough numbers so that the planes will be flying to Rwanda next week?
No. But the ELE joy espoused here will probably result in dreams crushed.
Including a good number of wafer thin majorities, I'd be thinking the 150-199 seats band looks value.
I have never supported the notion of an extinction event. That's not to say with all the recent performative cruelty from this Government they don't deserve it.
My MP in Leominster was Peter Temple -Morris. A party of Peter Temple -Morrises (prior to his crossing the floor) would be fine by me.
Rishi Sunak's just told This Morning that his favourite meal is 'sandwiches'. Er, are sandwiches even a meal?
Of course sandwiches are a meal. If you have sandwiches for lunch then your lunchtime meal was sandwiches.
Now they could be shitty sandwiches with a couple of slices of white bread and a slice of cheese or they could be a few rounds of freshly made Reuben sandwiches but a meal all the same.
It's sort of slightly endearing, unless he was just scrabbling around in his brain for the last thing he could remember eating that wasn't posh, and alighted on sarnies.
lol, Yes, he was yearning to scream “Lobster Thermidor” and his team are miming desperately behind the questioner the act of eating a sandwich. Luckily none mimed eating a baguette as he could have interpreted that in a very unfortunate way.
Lobster Thermidor isn't posh, it's weird, archaic and naff
It’s not posh indeed but is the sort of food that would trigger people as a perception of lobster being a food that is expensive and thus showing, once again, that he is out of touch.
Rishi of course is not posh, just wealthy and well educated.
You can get Lobster Thermidor at Wiltons for £75 so that is certainly posh-adjacent.
Obviously he wasn't going to scream Lobster.
If we've learnt anything about him, he's just desperate not to say Twix of Haribo again.
Heritage Foundation president celebrates Supreme Court presidential immunity ruling: "We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be" https://x.com/mmfa/status/1808306913291260118
Basically like a giant version of what happened in Fiji.
Not really. Fiji has quite the history of coups. The US right are openly talking of rewriting a constitution which has endured centuries, even through a bloody civil war, by force.
The Fiji Coup I am talking about is the 1987 one that happened after the Party representing ethnic Indians won the election and the native Fijians basically said tolerance for ethnics is one thing, letting them decide how the country is run is another matter.
That makes even less sense to me. I literally have no idea of the point you are making.
A lot of excitement among some at the thought of Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition. I don't think people have thought this through at all. The polls suggest the Lib Dems will come comfortably 4th in vote share, they don't disagree that much with Labour and between them they will have maybe just over 50% of the vote share. It will be rocket fuel for the populist right and those who think the whole system needs to be shaken up. I would argue that there are increasingly influential voices on the younger 'right' who might even consider it the ideal scenario from which to launch another people's revolt.
That is, though, a classic argument of the right. Left of centre parties mustn't dare be politically successful: that will provoke the far right. And if the left somehow has the temerity to assume power, they'd better do all the things the far right want because otherwise they'll really provoke the far right. And then they'll be sorry.
I was seeing some of that here last night about Trump too. "Maybe the best result would be a Trump landslide because that way there's risk of unrest".
It's the same attitude many have about Putin. Give him everything he wants or he might get cross.
Sorry that's a complete misunderstanding. The point is that in a democracy you ideally want a parliament that is broadly reflective of the country as a whole. Now we all know that FPTP is imperfect in that regard. But there comes a point at which credibility starts to be lost. I think a government and opposition with barely half the vote and in broad agreement in outlook would start to test that.
I'm not saying Davey should turn the opportunity down. He could point out that the Lib Dems still favour PR. But it won't be even close to representative of the country and there ought to be a little unease about that.
The Lib Dems would almost certainly be under-represented in seats vs their vote share. But it's funny how the right are now loudly worrying about FPTP when it never remotely bothered them before. "Strong government"!
For the last decade the SNP have been getting 2 automatic questions in PMQs and all the short money involved in being the third largest party on roughly 4% of the national vote.
If Con survive this election, eventually FPTP will see them come back and Labour collapse. What FPTP gives it takes away and Labour would do well to remember that when they take office (but of course they won't because governments with large majorities never do - Look at the Conservatives after winning 80 seat majority)
Of course that's a big if because there comes a point with FPTP where the damage probably isn't survivable and that point would probably be Lib-Dems becoming the official Opposition.
If they were clever they should put through STV in local elections, harmonising with Scotland and NI, and helping to stem the inevitable councillors losses which they’ll experience in the midterm locals, win a second term, and then sort out our voting system before they get thrown out.
Posh food now would likely be something Nordic or East European, with the all important "twist"
Borscht with artisanal Borough sourdough and skyr
Nah that's hipster food. Posh food is something else.
Hipster is basically posh these days, cf Glastonbury. Only ancient people revere naff haute cuisine like "lobster thermidor"
For old fashioned posh that is STILL posh I'd go for grouse or snipe or woodcock or venison you yourself shot dead, or wild salmon, or native oysters
It would have been fun if Sunak had said "my favourite meal is a dozen Helford natives on the half shell, and then partridge with game chips, I try to eat it every day"
He should answer as the family doctor prescribes in Buddenbrooks: a little roast pigeon, a little French bread.
Since reading that years ago I've occasionally made it for myself when the family are away. Pigeon breasts with plenty of black pepper on some baguette with a bit of butter, letting the blood soak into the bread. I recommend it.
Weirdly, on my last but one visit to France I bought a couple of pigeon in Leclerc and cooked them in my Airbnb
They were absolutely delicious - and easy to cook. First time I've ever cooked them, went perfectly
We should sell them in Britain, it's absurd we don't eat pigeon, there's not exactly a lack
Posh food now would likely be something Nordic or East European, with the all important "twist"
Borscht with artisanal Borough sourdough and skyr
Nah that's hipster food. Posh food is something else.
Hipster is basically posh these days, cf Glastonbury. Only ancient people revere naff haute cuisine like "lobster thermidor"
For old fashioned posh that is STILL posh I'd go for grouse or snipe or woodcock or venison you yourself shot dead, or wild salmon, or native oysters
It would have been fun if Sunak had said "my favourite meal is a dozen Helford natives on the half shell, and then partridge with game chips, I try to eat it every day"
As I say, Wiltons is posh-adjacent.
How about Panko Breadcrumbed Pork Belly with Celeriac Rémoulade, Apple Purée, Garlic, Spinach, Plum and Mustard Cream Sauce
Comments
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/workers-party-candidate-halts-campaign-after-son-is-beaten-up/ar-BB1pkAnU
A vote for anybody except Farage is a vote for a superwoke borderless Marxist hellhole.
To remind I'm on Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5% = Lab 419 seats, Cons 121 = 188 seat majority.
I feel vindicated that my SWAG coincides with the super-sophisticated UK Elect model!
+ve cashout value
Labour Wolverhampton West £200 @ 1-7
Reform Barnsley South £15 @ 8-1
Neutral
Reform Washington & Gateshead South £5 @ 14-1
Con seats 150 - 199 + £80.36
200 - 249 +£66.64
Anything else -£12.00
Slightly underwater
Con Over 140 seats +£29.40
Con under -£10
During the campaign there has been a 2-3% swing away from LLG towards the right wing parties.
FPT If the EU had stuck to being a trading block like CPTPP instead of attempting to become an Empiric State, extending its tentacles into virtually every aspect of government, we would not have had a problem in the first place,
If there was possibly a way I would 100% vote for Jason Beer to be PM. Plus if he wanted to run the country on his own perhaps Sam Stein as Chancellor and Ed Henry as everything else then so be it.
Roughly 0% ex Libdem or Green.
(Not entirely your fault - the folk producing the MRPs are guilty of ramping their constituency level forecasts too)
Heritage Foundation president celebrates Supreme Court presidential immunity ruling: "We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be"
https://x.com/mmfa/status/1808306913291260118
I was seeing some of that here last night about Trump too. "Maybe the best result would be a Trump landslide because that way there's risk of unrest".
It's the same attitude many have about Putin. Give him everything he wants or he might get cross.
Those who are all about gut, 'common sense' and feels I guess.
Corbyn's been doing rallies at the weekends, which Labour haven't matched - but otherwise, the levels of effort don't seem to be too far apart.
Your 25% chance for Corbyn feels about right to me - but it's worth noting that EC are now predicting a narrow Corbyn victory.
PP poll. Ok so they have reform second but their figures are not far off other pollsters.
I can’t recall (ie don’t care about) the exact details but it was something like half a baby pheasant in extra mild peri-peri sauce and suckling snow leopard for mains with sides of chips and peas sprinkled with powdered rhinoceros horn, washed down with a bottle of alcohol-free Chablis, bottomless glasses of disability benefits claimants’ tears (free refills ftw!) and Fentiman’s cola for the girls.
Borscht with artisanal Borough sourdough and skyr
But if the Lib Dems did come in second then they bloody well should be the official opposition.
Especially as anyone working in a lot of places (eg public sector) will have in the back of their mind that if they say Reform and get doxxed, they will be in hot water.
Not saying it is remotely likely that pollsters will dox them. But once you get in the habit of not telling strangers (or untrusted aquaintences) you are planning to vote Fargle, you won't switch out of that mode if a pollster cold calls you or emails you.
Probably one reason Reform are a bit higher with Yougov. If you have taken the positive step to register you are probably less likely (but not wholly unlikely) to be reticent.
Remember the couple that had foster children removed frpm their care because they were UKIP members?
TBH, it is pretty clear that he is not fishing in the same water as any other pollster.
As the in house RefUk pollster, he should now simply be dismissed as letting his bias give his results.
Perhaps the BPC might take an interest?
Including a good number of wafer thin majorities, I'd be thinking the 150-199 seats band looks value.
Fiji has quite the history of coups. The US right are openly talking of rewriting a constitution which has endured centuries, even through a bloody civil war, by force.
There are a number of quite possible outcomes tomorrow that could add considerable popular groundswell for electoral reform.
Rishi of course is not posh, just wealthy and well educated.
I'm not saying Davey should turn the opportunity down. He could point out that the Lib Dems still favour PR. But it won't be even close to representative of the country and there ought to be a little unease about that.
#Snoozefest
So not only handing over their territory, but denying them the prospect of defending the bits they are allowed to keep.
This would be an enforced surrender, not a deal.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/02/nato-second-trump-term-00164517
...A swift resolution of the two-and-a-half-year Ukraine conflict would also likely play a key role in Trump’s plans for NATO. As part of a plan for Ukraine that has not been previously reported, the presumptive GOP nominee is mulling a deal whereby NATO commits to no further eastward expansion — specifically into Ukraine and Georgia — and negotiates with Russian President Vladimir Putin over how much Ukrainian territory Moscow can keep, according to two other Trump-aligned national security experts...
For the last decade the SNP have been getting 2 automatic questions in PMQs and all the short money involved in being the third largest party on roughly 4% of the national vote.
Bentley v Volvo estate.
For old fashioned posh that is STILL posh I'd go for grouse or snipe or woodcock or venison you yourself shot dead, or wild salmon, or native oysters
It would have been fun if Sunak had said "my favourite meal is a dozen Helford natives on the half shell, and then partridge with game chips, I try to eat it every day"
Long term that all brings WW3 much closer. It's Sudetenland stuff.
Betting on that sort of thing could get you into trouble!
I've had lobster loads, and it rarely lives up to its reputation - or price
Weirdly, caviar DOES; it is exquisite
The dish deserves to be resigned to the annals of history.
Hugo Rifkind has a recent article in The Times on pretty much exactly this point, and it is also a main theme of his novel
Of course that's a big if because there comes a point with FPTP where the damage probably isn't survivable and that point would probably be Lib-Dems becoming the official Opposition.
Compared to the polling average that Sean Fear helpfully put below he has the Tories -5 and Reform +4.
I could absolutely see somewhere like Quo Vadis or The Devonshire doing it at some point...
I don't disagree with your broader point, but I also think it's a good thing that each MP has to win a personal mandate to afford them authority and so that we don't flood parliament with numpties picked from party member lists.
Hang on...
It helps with suicidal depressive fits, try it
Since reading that years ago I've occasionally made it for myself when the family are away. Pigeon breasts with plenty of black pepper on some baguette with a bit of butter, letting the blood soak into the bread. I recommend it.
Barnsley North
Barnsley South
Clacton
Dudley
Great Yarmouth
Hornchurch & Upminster
Romford
South Baslldon & East Thurrock
Pritzker 34% 40% Trump Trump +6
July 1-2
1,070 RV
Ipsos
Reuters Whitmer 36% 41% Trump Trump +5
July 1-2
1,070 RV
Ipsos
Reuters Beshear 36% 40% Trump Trump +4
July 1-2
1,070 RV
Ipsos
Reuters Harris 42% 43% Trump Trump +1
July 1-2
1,070 RV
Ipsos
Reuters M. Obama 50% 39% Trump M. Obama +11
July 1-2
1,070 RV
Ipsos
Reuters Biden 40% 40% Trump
There you go, would she want it. The pressure on her to declare Yes will be enormous. She would certainly take Trump to the cleaners in a debate.
My MP in Leominster was Peter Temple -Morris. A party of Peter Temple -Morrises (prior to his crossing the floor) would be fine by me.
If we've learnt anything about him, he's just desperate not to say Twix of Haribo again.
I literally have no idea of the point you are making.
They were absolutely delicious - and easy to cook. First time I've ever cooked them, went perfectly
We should sell them in Britain, it's absurd we don't eat pigeon, there's not exactly a lack
How about Panko Breadcrumbed Pork Belly with Celeriac Rémoulade, Apple Purée, Garlic, Spinach, Plum and Mustard Cream Sauce