politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Tories do manage to stay in power after May 7th much
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The restaurant owner is obviously not paying his cooks enough money. That, or the state pays too much to people who don't work. Or perhaps the cooks took better jobs elsewhere. And if the owner can only make it work by paying peanuts then he doesn't have viable business.NickPalmer said:
Not following the logic. You say that anything paid less than £30K is definitely easy to learn?Socrates said:
Keith Vaz is a numpty. If a job is paid less than £30k a year (and I think he's got his numbers wrong on that anyway) you can definitely train someone up in the UK to do it.
Anecdotally, in the specific case, I talked last year to an Asian restaurant manager who said he'd made a deliberate attempt to recruit non-Asian cooks to save the hassle of getting visas - he only asked that they should have general cooking experience, and offered to train them in Asian food - but got only two applicants, who gave up after a week and a fortnight respectively. "They just found it outside their comfort zone," he said.
The same applies to farmers who rely on cheap imported labour to pick crops. All it shows is that the price of strawberries is too low. Put wages up, locals will do the work, charge a bit more in the shops. Sorted. If the farmer can't sell at the higher price he should use his land for something else.0 -
I'd forgotten quite how dishonest the Nats were - the second biggest reason for voting 'Yes' was the (Scottish run, Scottish controlled) NHS..... which got an extra £125 million today from Osborne......TheScreamingEagles said:What were the two or three most important issues in deciding on how you voted?
57% of no voters, it was the pound
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Referendum-day-poll-summary-1409191.pdf
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-302979320 -
Tonights YG LAB 314 CON 287 LD 18
EICIPM0 -
Spanking videos banned in the UK:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/12/02/uk-porn-law-sexist-female-ejaculation-ban_n_6254678.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular0 -
What are we counting as "proper" crossover? A certain number of consecutive Tory leads in a row? A lead in Sunil's ELBOW?
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According to Peter Kellner, a Tory lead would mean Tory most seats.bigjohnowls said:Tonights YG LAB 314 CON 287 LD 18
EICIPM0 -
I suspect a Miliband Govt would disappoint supporters unprepared for the reality that bankers and mansions cannot fill the ( still huge) deficit and notwithstanding some further tax rises serious cuts would still follow. Voyez Hollande mes amis.....FrancisUrquhart said:All the left leaning media are focusing on the "massive" cuts programmed in by George. I kinda of wonder if he doesn't mind that. I mean we have had 4 years of those same voices telling us the world will end due to cuts and it hasn't happened. The boy that cried wolf and all that. Also, the question then becomes, well what would Labour do, given they say they will basically follow general George's plans on borrowing.
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I'm on my mobile, and I can't zoom properly to view, but I reckon table 5 onwards will give a rough guide to Mr Divvie's question
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Post-referendum-poll-tables-Sept-2014.pdf0 -
not if the snp take 40 seats from labour in scotlandbigjohnowls said:Tonights YG LAB 314 CON 287 LD 18
EICIPM0 -
Your beer seems a little spittle flecked, if not tear diluted.foxinsoxuk said:
Why did the others decide to vote no? Was it Salmonds smug visage? The unconvincing economics? The lack of a real defence policy? Or the lack of a viable currency?Theuniondivvie said:
How many of them were among the 62% that were always going to vote no?TheScreamingEagles said:What were the two or three most important issues in deciding on how you voted?
57% of no voters, it was the pound
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Referendum-day-poll-summary-1409191.pdf
Personally, I think the currency was critical, but possibly you are right and the Scottish public saw through another part of Salmonds bluff and bluster.
You were one of the SNP imploders and 60/40ers, weren't you?0 -
My own guide prior to the first crossover was Tory leads with two different phone pollsters.Danny565 said:What are we counting as "proper" crossover? A certain number of consecutive Tory leads in a row? A lead in Sunil's ELBOW?
3 out of the 4 phone pollsters have shown Tory leads this year.0 -
If the Tories had been able to hold on to their own loyalist voter base, they'd be heading for a clear victory next year. Sadly, they preferred to insult and ignore them instead.Scrapheap_as_was said:
A handy starting point for tomorrow... will we see a bigger Tory lead than the odd 1% ones we've been seeing more and more....MikeL said:YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories take one-point lead, Lib Dems fall to fifth: CON 32%, LAB 31%, LD 6%, UKIP 17%, GRN 7%
Will Bobby Sol be back up front on Saturday...
Will Chelsea complete their usual double over Spurs in a few short weeks.
At least one is a cert.
Right, heading to bed now too. Goodnight.0 -
Has SeanT stopped doing his nut on twitter about this yet. Holed up in a 6* Oz resort and was losing his mind over not being able to watch UK made spanking videos (only the foreign mucky stuff).AndyJS said:Spanking videos banned in the UK:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/12/02/uk-porn-law-sexist-female-ejaculation-ban_n_6254678.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular0 -
But I meant what point do we "definitively" say the Tories are in the lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
My own guide prior to the first crossover was Tory leads with two different phone pollsters.Danny565 said:What are we counting as "proper" crossover? A certain number of consecutive Tory leads in a row? A lead in Sunil's ELBOW?
3 out of the 4 phone pollsters have shown Tory leads this year.0 -
After 4 years of "bankers bonuses, the 1%, mansion taxes, it's not fair" etc etc under Ed Labour are actually 6-7 points down.FrancisUrquhart said:All the left leaning media are focusing on the "massive" cuts programmed in by George. I kinda of wonder if he doesn't mind that. I mean we have had 4 years of those same voices telling us the world will end due to cuts and it hasn't happened. The boy that cried wolf and all that. Also, the question then becomes, well what would Labour do, given they say they will basically follow general George's plans on borrowing.
(Diminishing) Tribal loyalty and a divided right is all they are hanging on to.
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This govt has not done what Labour would have done (at least going by their rhetoric).Floater said:
Help me out here. If the tories did what Labour would have done (stop sniggering at the back) can you explain what Labour have been whining about?Speedy said:
The government hasn't done bad with the economy, thanks to it's u-turn in economic policy they did what Labour would have done anyway.Socrates said:
Yes. I think it's entirely reasonable to judge the Coalition on their economic record from about a year into power to the time when they leave power. They should be benchmarked against other large developed countries for that period.surbiton said:
A government is elected for 5 years, right ?Socrates said:
You realise that government policy isn't instantaneous in its effects, right?surbiton said:
Where does Britain stand in the G20 growth table since 2010 ? They were not elected in 2013.Flightpath said:
IMF ...foxinsoxuk said:
He said third fastest growing major economy.FrankBooth said:George claimed we were the fastest growing major economy. Does he not consider the US a major economy?
No currency Union was cited by many of the 55% as the reason to vote No.Alistair said:
Support for independence went up after his speech. At the start of the year Indy was polling at 35%.MonikerDiCanio said:....
''Britain's economy is growing faster than those of every other major developed country, the International Monetary Fund has disclosed.
Britain is expected to grow faster than countries including America, Germany, France and Canada'' (Telegraph)
And that's a point, Balls, Darling and Osborne had the same ideas and plans, the economy will be the same regardless of who's in power.
you seem to be saying that Labour are opportunistic little shits.
This govt has cut spending. Labours policy was to spend more. The Institute for Fiscal Studies, says that in 2010-11, there was a discretionary fiscal tightening of 1.6% of GDP, followed by 2.4%, 1.4%, 1% and a planned 0.6% this year. Over the course of the parliament the coalition will have tightened by 7% of GDP.
The govt has made real progress in cutting the structural deficit. The International Monetary Fund say the cyclically-adjusted deficit has come down from 10.3% of gross domestic product in 2009 to 4.1% this year.
Britain’s GDP is now 3.4% above pre-crisis levels, (Germany 3.1%), France 1.4%, Spain -5.8% and Italy -9.4%)
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When the UK polling report polling average has the Tories ahead?Danny565 said:
But I meant what point do we "definitively" say the Tories are in the lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
My own guide prior to the first crossover was Tory leads with two different phone pollsters.Danny565 said:What are we counting as "proper" crossover? A certain number of consecutive Tory leads in a row? A lead in Sunil's ELBOW?
3 out of the 4 phone pollsters have shown Tory leads this year.0 -
An enterprising journalist could contact all of the Blair era Labour lovies including all those musician who went to No 10 - many of whom will live in £2m houses - and ask if they still support Labour. Would make a good article for the Mail. Maybe they've already done it.bigjohnowls said:
ExcellentArtist said:Alan Titchmarsh is the latest celebrity to come out against the mansion tax. (front page of Mirror)
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Actually the official crossover thing will be is when BigJohn stops posting EICIPM, and starts posting EIC0
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The Swedish Democrats must be laughing after the government collapses after three months and calls another election for March:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-303069920 -
THE UK government dealt a blow to the SNP’s property tax reforms today when Chancellor George Osborne unveiled a major overhaul of Stamp Duty which will offer savings to average home purchasers UK-wide.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/stamp-duty-revamp-blow-to-snp-property-tax-reforms-1-3623960
Chortle.......0 -
2-3 December 2013 YouGov was:MikeL said:YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories take one-point lead, Lib Dems fall to fifth: CON 32%, LAB 31%, LD 6%, UKIP 17%, GRN 7%
Con 32%, Lab 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, Green 3%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#20130 -
I won a fair amount of British pounds by backing the McARSE.Theuniondivvie said:
Your beer seems a little spittle flecked, if not tear diluted.foxinsoxuk said:
Why did the others decide to vote no? Was it Salmonds smug visage? The unconvincing economics? The lack of a real defence policy? Or the lack of a viable currency?Theuniondivvie said:
How many of them were among the 62% that were always going to vote no?TheScreamingEagles said:What were the two or three most important issues in deciding on how you voted?
57% of no voters, it was the pound
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Referendum-day-poll-summary-1409191.pdf
Personally, I think the currency was critical, but possibly you are right and the Scottish public saw through another part of Salmonds bluff and bluster.
You were one of the SNP imploders and 60/40ers, weren't you?
We shall see how the SNP does. I think that it will struggle to hold ground in 2011.0 -
Correction,TheScreamingEagles said:Actually the official crossover thing will be is when BigJohn stops posting EICIPM, and starts posting EIC
It will be when BigJohn tells us a poll is only the position now and it'll be different when it matters in May.0 -
Or, for those who can be arsed to read 50 pages...MikeK said:1 USAGRUNT @1usagrunt 1h1 hour ago
Over 8,000 Christians massacred and 700,000 displaced by devout Muslims in Nigeria http://wp.me/p2CcQu-8WC via @TheMuslimIssue
http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/africa/west-africa/nigeria/216-curbing-violence-in-nigeria-ii-the-boko-haram-insurgency.pdf0 -
May 8 2015 then......TheScreamingEagles said:Actually the official crossover thing will be is when BigJohn stops posting EICIPM, and starts posting EIC
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For fans of a single data point.
In Dec 2013, in the last full YouGov conducted before the Autumn Statement, Lab had a 12% lead (con 29, Lab 41)
In the first YouGov poll conducted entirely after the Autumn Statement, Lab's lead was slashed to 5% (con 34, Lab 39)0 -
As Lord Ashcroft keeps on telling me, a poll is a snapshot, not a prediction.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Correction,TheScreamingEagles said:Actually the official crossover thing will be is when BigJohn stops posting EICIPM, and starts posting EIC
It will be when BigJohn tells us a poll is only the position now and it'll be different when it matters in May.0 -
Nice to know our civil servants are busily occupied drawing up laws that no-one is going to pay any attention to, such as banning spanking and watersports videos. I'm sure millions of people will still be watching such videos in this country regardless of these ridiculous laws.0
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Cons 37% Lab 29% coming then......TheScreamingEagles said:For fans of a single data point.
In Dec 2013, in the last full YouGov conducted before the Autumn Statement, Lab had a 12% lead (con 29, Lab 41)
In the first YouGov poll conducted entirely after the Autumn Statement, Lab's lead was slashed to 5% (con 34, Lab 39)0 -
You know, earlier on this year, after the budget, there was a bit of the boost for the Cons, a bit like last year's Autumn Statement.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Cons 37% Lab 29% coming then......TheScreamingEagles said:For fans of a single data point.
In Dec 2013, in the last full YouGov conducted before the Autumn Statement, Lab had a 12% lead (con 29, Lab 41)
In the first YouGov poll conducted entirely after the Autumn Statement, Lab's lead was slashed to 5% (con 34, Lab 39)
So I have this theory, the more we see of Ozzy on TV, the Tories get a boost.
George Osborne is awesome.0 -
@steve_hawkes: Labour are left to argue the Chancellor hasn't cut borrowing by as much as he vowed to, despite having earlier warned he was going too fast
@iainmartin1: Risk for Labour is that sounds as though they're saying if govt had borrowed more the deficit would now be, er, lower.
Repeat, every day until the election...0 -
PB Nats dismissed this this afternoon as a non story.CarlottaVance said:THE UK government dealt a blow to the SNP’s property tax reforms today when Chancellor George Osborne unveiled a major overhaul of Stamp Duty which will offer savings to average home purchasers UK-wide.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/stamp-duty-revamp-blow-to-snp-property-tax-reforms-1-3623960
Chortle.......0 -
This post sponsored by NewsSense™TheScreamingEagles said:So I have this theory, the more we see of Ozzy on TV, the Tories get a boost.
George Osborne is awesome.0 -
The sure sign for me that the Tories were starting to edge ahead has been the unmistakeable bashing they've been taking in the PB thread headings evident over the past couple of weeks.
If you don't agree, go back and count them for yourself!0 -
I know it's a place politicians don't want to go, but I'd support any who made it easier for muslims to renounce the faith. Obviously that applies to all other faiths, but I don't think there's much problem there. I just got back from Egypt (90% muslim, 10 christian, no option to be an atheist) and am a bit shocked by the power of religion, the existence of blasphemy and the persecution of the faithless. I am guessing apostasy for UK muslims is not a cakewalk either. It should be, and it falls to politician to clear the way.Pong said:
Or, for those who can be arsed to read 50 pages...MikeK said:1 USAGRUNT @1usagrunt 1h1 hour ago
Over 8,000 Christians massacred and 700,000 displaced by devout Muslims in Nigeria http://wp.me/p2CcQu-8WC via @TheMuslimIssue
http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/africa/west-africa/nigeria/216-curbing-violence-in-nigeria-ii-the-boko-haram-insurgency.pdf0 -
Watching them isn't illegal and still won't be. It's the buying them, which is (apparently) already illegal in physical sex shops. I haven't be able to verify that...AndyJS said:Nice to know our civil servants are busily occupied drawing up laws that no-one is going to pay any attention to, such as banning spanking and watersports videos. I'm sure millions of people will still be watching such videos in this country regardless of these ridiculous laws.
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peter_from_putney said:
The sure sign for me that the Tories were starting to edge ahead has been the unmistakeable bashing they've been taking in the PB thread headings evident over the past couple of weeks.
If you don't agree, go back and count them for yourself!
haha!
Brilliant headlines from the right and centre papers tomorrow.
The Sun has come up with a particular gem, both for Osborne and EdM.0 -
There's a sex shop on my way to work.Grandiose said:
Watching them isn't illegal and still won't be. It's the buying them, which is (apparently) already illegal in physical sex shops. I haven't be able to verify that...AndyJS said:Nice to know our civil servants are busily occupied drawing up laws that no-one is going to pay any attention to, such as banning spanking and watersports videos. I'm sure millions of people will still be watching such videos in this country regardless of these ridiculous laws.
I'll go do some research tomorrow.0 -
Counting them all up would be another challenge for the Tories which will be hard for us to overcome.peter_from_putney said:The sure sign for me that the Tories were starting to edge ahead has been the unmistakeable bashing they've been taking in the PB thread headings evident over the past couple of weeks.
If you don't agree, go back and count them for yourself!0 -
@alstewitn: .@BBCNewsnight Laffer on the British disease: 'You tax people who work & give cash to those who don't- do I have to say the next bit?'.0
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Ex-Rotherham Labour mayor Barry Dodson charged with indecent assault of a thirteen year old.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/ex-rotherham-mayor-barry-dodson-charged-with-indecent-assault-of-teenage-girl-1-6986163#.VH-V1yI6kgE.twitter
Wonder if the trial will be done by May.0 -
Barry sound an unusual name for a Muslim immigrant - our Kipper friends will be confused.Blueberry said:Ex-Rotherham Labour mayor Barry Dodson charged with indecent assault of a thirteen year old.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/ex-rotherham-mayor-barry-dodson-charged-with-indecent-assault-of-teenage-girl-1-6986163#.VH-V1yI6kgE.twitter
Wonder if the trial will be done by May.0 -
Weasel words. He'd get on well with Daniel off the Apprentice.TheScreamingEagles said:
As Lord Ashcroft keeps on telling me, a poll is a snapshot, not a prediction.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Correction,TheScreamingEagles said:Actually the official crossover thing will be is when BigJohn stops posting EICIPM, and starts posting EIC
It will be when BigJohn tells us a poll is only the position now and it'll be different when it matters in May.
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Or it could be that generally speaking, when Osborne, is on tv Balls, is also on tv responding to him?TheScreamingEagles said:
You know, earlier on this year, after the budget, there was a bit of the boost for the Cons, a bit like last year's Autumn Statement.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Cons 37% Lab 29% coming then......TheScreamingEagles said:For fans of a single data point.
In Dec 2013, in the last full YouGov conducted before the Autumn Statement, Lab had a 12% lead (con 29, Lab 41)
In the first YouGov poll conducted entirely after the Autumn Statement, Lab's lead was slashed to 5% (con 34, Lab 39)
So I have this theory, the more we see of Ozzy on TV, the Tories get a boost.
George Osborne is awesome.0 -
@Trumpton_UKIP Is very amusing.0
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Put like that, GO is a very lucky CofEsaddened said:
Or it could be that generally speaking, when Osborne, is on tv Balls, is also on tv responding to him?TheScreamingEagles said:
You know, earlier on this year, after the budget, there was a bit of the boost for the Cons, a bit like last year's Autumn Statement.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Cons 37% Lab 29% coming then......TheScreamingEagles said:For fans of a single data point.
In Dec 2013, in the last full YouGov conducted before the Autumn Statement, Lab had a 12% lead (con 29, Lab 41)
In the first YouGov poll conducted entirely after the Autumn Statement, Lab's lead was slashed to 5% (con 34, Lab 39)
So I have this theory, the more we see of Ozzy on TV, the Tories get a boost.
George Osborne is awesome.0 -
Some USA oddballs wouldn't agree with you!TGOHF said:
Barry sound an unusual name for a Muslim immigrant - our Kipper friends will be confused.Blueberry said:Ex-Rotherham Labour mayor Barry Dodson charged with indecent assault of a thirteen year old.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/ex-rotherham-mayor-barry-dodson-charged-with-indecent-assault-of-teenage-girl-1-6986163#.VH-V1yI6kgE.twitter
Wonder if the trial will be done by May.0 -
Denigrating kippers wasn't what sprang to my mind. Plus ca change more like.TGOHF said:
Barry sound an unusual name for a Muslim immigrant - our Kipper friends will be confused.Blueberry said:Ex-Rotherham Labour mayor Barry Dodson charged with indecent assault of a thirteen year old.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/ex-rotherham-mayor-barry-dodson-charged-with-indecent-assault-of-teenage-girl-1-6986163#.VH-V1yI6kgE.twitter
Wonder if the trial will be done by May.0 -
Very funnyTGOHF said:@Trumpton_UKIP Is very amusing.
@MichaelPDeacon: I don't want to speak too soon, but I sense we may have another "shows how much you know about pike" on our hands https://t.co/rq2YntzWDM
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lolTGOHF said:
Barry sound an unusual name for a Muslim immigrant - our Kipper friends will be confused.Blueberry said:Ex-Rotherham Labour mayor Barry Dodson charged with indecent assault of a thirteen year old.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/ex-rotherham-mayor-barry-dodson-charged-with-indecent-assault-of-teenage-girl-1-6986163#.VH-V1yI6kgE.twitter
Wonder if the trial will be done by May.0 -
Should the Tories win next May, they will probably be able to look back to this particular period and consider themselves very fortunate that three quite separate aspects worked together in their favour in blowing away Labour's chances:
First the SNP's surge in the polls which will probably result in them winning between 25-30 seats at the General Election (compared with Ladbrokes' line bet of 7.5 seats just four short months ago), principally at Labour's expense.
Second the Greens' resurgence suggesting that they are likely to win 6% - 7% of the vote in those seats they contest, again principally at Labour's expense and perhaps sufficient to precent them from otherwise winning in say 5 - 10 marginals.
Third, the reported falling out between Danny Alexander and Vince Cable over spending cuts at this week's Cabinet, coupled with Clegg's rather petulant decision in refusing to sit next to Cameron or Osborne in the House of Commons, thereby in effect bringing the coalition to an end and in all likelihood doing the LibDems no favours come the General Election.
All that is now needed is for UKIP to mess up big time in some way or other and the Tories might even find themselves looking at the prospect of an overall majority.0 -
I've been watching an American TV show called Tyrant, the main character is a Muslim called Barry.philiph said:
Some USA oddballs wouldn't agree with you!TGOHF said:
Barry sound an unusual name for a Muslim immigrant - our Kipper friends will be confused.Blueberry said:Ex-Rotherham Labour mayor Barry Dodson charged with indecent assault of a thirteen year old.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/ex-rotherham-mayor-barry-dodson-charged-with-indecent-assault-of-teenage-girl-1-6986163#.VH-V1yI6kgE.twitter
Wonder if the trial will be done by May.
Which is short for Bassam.
I think it was the producers trolling those oddballs.0 -
Do Voters Even Care About The Deficit?:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/mehdi-hasan/autumn-statement-deficit_b_6261134.html0 -
Lolol. Yes put it like thatphiliph said:
Some USA oddballs wouldn't agree with you!TGOHF said:
Barry sound an unusual name for a Muslim immigrant - our Kipper friends will be confused.Blueberry said:Ex-Rotherham Labour mayor Barry Dodson charged with indecent assault of a thirteen year old.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/ex-rotherham-mayor-barry-dodson-charged-with-indecent-assault-of-teenage-girl-1-6986163#.VH-V1yI6kgE.twitter
Wonder if the trial will be done by May. 0 -
Yes, what on earth was Nick Clegg thinking? There's a case (a very strong one, in my view) for the LibDems to be proud of their record in helping provide the stability and good economic management which has led to amazing turnaround in the UK's economic position compared with our competitors. There's an alternative strategy which the LibDems could adopt (or at least could have adopted), which is to try to win back defectors to Labour by capitalising on the irrational hatred of the Tories, and having nothing to do with the coalition. But staying in the coalition, whilst pretending it's nothing to do with the LibDems, makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Doing so just at the time when the reward for getting the economy back in shape is coming into focus is utterly bizarre as a strategy. It gives them all of the downside of being in the coalition without the upside. Danny Alexander seems to understand this very obvious point, but he seems to be one of the few LibDems who does.peter_from_putney said:Third, the reported falling out between Danny Alexander and Vince Cable over spending cuts at this week's Cabinet, coupled with Clegg's rather petulant decision in refusing to sit next to Cameron or Osborne in the House of Commons
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Fourth.peter_from_putney said:Should the Tories win next May, they will probably be able to look back to this particular period and consider themselves very fortunate that three quite separate aspects worked together in their favour in blowing away Labour's chances:
First the SNP's surge in the polls which will probably result in them winning between 25-30 seats at the General Election (compared with Ladbrokes' line bet of 7.5 seats just four short months ago), principally at Labour's expense.
Second the Greens' resurgence suggesting that they are likely to win 6% - 7% of the vote in those seats they contest, again principally at Labour's expense and perhaps sufficient to precent them from otherwise winning in say 5 - 10 marginals.
Third, the reported falling out between Danny Alexander and Vince Cable over spending cuts at this week's Cabinet, coupled with Clegg's rather petulant decision in refusing to sit next to Cameron or Osborne in the House of Commons, thereby in effect bringing the coalition to an end and in all likelihood doing the LibDems no favours come the General Election.
All that is now needed is for UKIP to mess up big time in some way or other and the Tories might even find themselves looking at the prospect of an overall majority.
Dave vs Ed at their conferences.
It gave a lot of senior blues confidence that our boy will thrash Ed in an election campaign.
Had to be worth a few percentage points on Election Day.0 -
Every resource the police have to expend dealing with consensual adult pornography offences is of course time and money which could be devoted to tackling the truly odious stuff, ie. material which is neither adult nor consensual.Grandiose said:
Watching them isn't illegal and still won't be. It's the buying them, which is (apparently) already illegal in physical sex shops. I haven't be able to verify that...AndyJS said:Nice to know our civil servants are busily occupied drawing up laws that no-one is going to pay any attention to, such as banning spanking and watersports videos. I'm sure millions of people will still be watching such videos in this country regardless of these ridiculous laws.
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For any weather nuts rmets.org/weather-and-climate/observing/make-barometer
I've just bought one of these > amazon.co.uk/18cm-Storm-Glass-Barometer-Wooden/dp/B00FF8XN88/ref=sr_1_15?ie=UTF8&qid=1417649628&sr=8-15&keywords=barometers The original FitzRoy design for a storm glass from c1700 and The Beagle.0 -
Or: DCRAGNJ (David Cameron Resigns And Gets a New Job) Sounds like a nice name from one of the eastern European Countries though ;^)CarlottaVance said:
May 8 2015 then......TheScreamingEagles said:Actually the official crossover thing will be is when BigJohn stops posting EICIPM, and starts posting EIC
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@jessbowie: According to @labourpress, Balls will appear on various media outlets tomo at 0640; 0730; 0810; 0817; 0850; 0905 & 0920 <-rather him than me0
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Sweden's first snap election since 1958:
http://www.thelocal.se/20141203/crisis-in-sweden-as-coalition-budget-fails0 -
Amen to that.AndyJS said:
Every resource the police have to expend dealing with consensual adult pornography offences is of course time and money which could be devoted to tackling the truly odious stuff, ie. material which is neither adult nor consensual.Grandiose said:
Watching them isn't illegal and still won't be. It's the buying them, which is (apparently) already illegal in physical sex shops. I haven't be able to verify that...AndyJS said:Nice to know our civil servants are busily occupied drawing up laws that no-one is going to pay any attention to, such as banning spanking and watersports videos. I'm sure millions of people will still be watching such videos in this country regardless of these ridiculous laws.
Good luck with defining consent though...0 -
How does the 'independent' Office For Budget Responsibility fit into all this?DavidL said:I am slightly bemused that he was able to announce that the deficit will be lower this year than last. I really thought he was snookered on that and so did most of the analysts I read. He is several billion behind last year at the moment.
Surely George would not have achieved some slight of hand such as some deferred payments?0 -
ELBOW for week ending 23rd Nov showed a Labour lead of only 0.5% - close to crossover, but no cigar!TheScreamingEagles said:
My own guide prior to the first crossover was Tory leads with two different phone pollsters.Danny565 said:What are we counting as "proper" crossover? A certain number of consecutive Tory leads in a row? A lead in Sunil's ELBOW?
3 out of the 4 phone pollsters have shown Tory leads this year.
A week later, this had opened up to 2.1% Lab lead.
The first five polls so far this week (ie. excluding tonight's YG) show a 1.4% Lab lead.0 -
Very nicePlato said:For any weather nuts rmets.org/weather-and-climate/observing/make-barometer
I've just bought one of these > amazon.co.uk/18cm-Storm-Glass-Barometer-Wooden/dp/B00FF8XN88/ref=sr_1_15?ie=UTF8&qid=1417649628&sr=8-15&keywords=barometers The original FitzRoy design for a storm glass from c1700 and The Beagle.
My mum and dad have a "traditional" style barometer in their hallway but although I visit most weekends, I can't remember the last time I even consulted it!0 -
Ffith: Labour still gives no reason to vote Labour. Today shows they are absent from the field of battle on the economy.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fourth.peter_from_putney said:Should the Tories win next May, they will probably be able to look back to this particular period and consider themselves very fortunate that three quite separate aspects worked together in their favour in blowing away Labour's chances:
First the SNP's surge in the polls which will probably result in them winning between 25-30 seats at the General Election (compared with Ladbrokes' line bet of 7.5 seats just four short months ago), principally at Labour's expense.
Second the Greens' resurgence suggesting that they are likely to win 6% - 7% of the vote in those seats they contest, again principally at Labour's expense and perhaps sufficient to precent them from otherwise winning in say 5 - 10 marginals.
Third, the reported falling out between Danny Alexander and Vince Cable over spending cuts at this week's Cabinet, coupled with Clegg's rather petulant decision in refusing to sit next to Cameron or Osborne in the House of Commons, thereby in effect bringing the coalition to an end and in all likelihood doing the LibDems no favours come the General Election.
All that is now needed is for UKIP to mess up big time in some way or other and the Tories might even find themselves looking at the prospect of an overall majority.
Dave vs Ed at their conferences.
It gave a lot of senior blues confidence that our boy will thrash Ed in an election campaign.
Had to be worth a few percentage points on Election Day.
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The Swedish election may have some influence on the UK election campaign since the former is being held on 22nd March, just a few days before the start of the UK campaign.0
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I think 6% - 7% in the seats they contest (5% ish overall) is way too high for the Green party at the GE. Indeed there is surely some comfort for Labour that the high Green polling now is squeezable in their favour by next May.peter_from_putney said:
Second the Greens' resurgence suggesting that they are likely to win 6% - 7% of the vote in those seats they contest, again principally at Labour's expense and perhaps sufficient to precent them from otherwise winning in say 5 - 10 marginals.0 -
Hmmm there's an open goal there but I'll let someone else obligeTGOHF said:
Barry sound an unusual name for a Muslim immigrant - our Kipper friends will be confused.Blueberry said:Ex-Rotherham Labour mayor Barry Dodson charged with indecent assault of a thirteen year old.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/ex-rotherham-mayor-barry-dodson-charged-with-indecent-assault-of-teenage-girl-1-6986163#.VH-V1yI6kgE.twitter
Wonder if the trial will be done by May.0 -
I don't think it's a coincidence that the two parties that Labour are shedding votes to are both anti-austerity. (Greens + SNP)Danny565 said:Do Voters Even Care About The Deficit?:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/mehdi-hasan/autumn-statement-deficit_b_6261134.html
Balls' stance is also shackling Labour from the policy innovation needed to excite and reunite the left as Cruddas bemoaned a couple of months ago.0 -
What would you roughly predict for the Greens?Neil said:
I think 6% - 7% in the seats they contest (5% ish overall) is way too high for the Green party at the GE. Indeed there is surely some comfort for Labour that the high Green polling now is squeezable in their favour by next May.peter_from_putney said:
Second the Greens' resurgence suggesting that they are likely to win 6% - 7% of the vote in those seats they contest, again principally at Labour's expense and perhaps sufficient to precent them from otherwise winning in say 5 - 10 marginals.
(Aside: do you not meet even bigger "deficit-deniers" than me in the Greens?!)0 -
My anecdotal evidence is not whilst Ed is in charge. He is the reason a number of my leftist chums have gone green.....Neil said:
I think 6% - 7% in the seats they contest (5% ish overall) is way too high for the Green party at the GE. Indeed there is surely some comfort for Labour that the high Green polling now is squeezable in their favour by next May.peter_from_putney said:
Second the Greens' resurgence suggesting that they are likely to win 6% - 7% of the vote in those seats they contest, again principally at Labour's expense and perhaps sufficient to precent them from otherwise winning in say 5 - 10 marginals.
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Due to a busy day at work, haven't had a chance to watch the Autumn Statement. What was the PB verdict?0
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Vince Cable's face today was a picture. Chewing on a hornet doesn't begin to convey his obvious displeasure at being sat on the side of the House delivering this Statement.
I really don't know why he carries on in politics.0 -
More than last time (well, standing in roughly 50% more seats so that shouldnt be hard) but less than current poll ratings (due to not standing everywhere but, more importantly, due to being squeezed in many constituencies). 3% would be perfectly acceptable. The key for the Greens isnt national vote share though - it's places in constituencies. Retaining Brighton Pavilion and taking 2 or even 3 second places would be a fantastic result regardless of national vote share.Danny565 said:
What would you roughly predict for the Greens?Neil said:
I think 6% - 7% in the seats they contest (5% ish overall) is way too high for the Green party at the GE. Indeed there is surely some comfort for Labour that the high Green polling now is squeezable in their favour by next May.peter_from_putney said:
Second the Greens' resurgence suggesting that they are likely to win 6% - 7% of the vote in those seats they contest, again principally at Labour's expense and perhaps sufficient to precent them from otherwise winning in say 5 - 10 marginals.
(Aside: do you not meet even bigger "deficit-deniers" than me in the Greens?!)
I can honestly say that I dont think I've ever met anyone who on the one hand sees no problem running 10%+ deficits in perpetuity but on the other hand refuses to engage with the logical consequences of such a policy (ie what it would mean to welfare recipients and others when others stopped funding those deficits).
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Andy JS The polls show little change from the general election other than a further increase in the Swedish Democrats' score to 16% and a slight decrease in the SPD score.
The centre left become largest party but with the balance of power held by a rightwing, populist party and new elections held just months later, hope it is not an omen for next May?0 -
Today was quite a success for the Business Secretary. Many of the arguments he has been making over the course of this Parliament were accepted. His department is an obvious winner from the Statement (eg the extension of British Business Bank schemes).MarqueeMark said:Vince Cable's face today was a picture. Chewing on a hornet doesn't begin to convey his obvious displeasure at being sat on the side of the House delivering this Statement.
I really don't know why he carries on in politics.
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Well, yes, anecdotal evidence!MarqueeMark said:
My anecdotal evidence is not whilst Ed is in charge. He is the reason a number of my leftist chums have gone green.....Neil said:
I think 6% - 7% in the seats they contest (5% ish overall) is way too high for the Green party at the GE. Indeed there is surely some comfort for Labour that the high Green polling now is squeezable in their favour by next May.peter_from_putney said:
Second the Greens' resurgence suggesting that they are likely to win 6% - 7% of the vote in those seats they contest, again principally at Labour's expense and perhaps sufficient to precent them from otherwise winning in say 5 - 10 marginals.
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Neil said:
Well, yes, anecdotal evidence!MarqueeMark said:
My anecdotal evidence is not whilst Ed is in charge. He is the reason a number of my leftist chums have gone green.....Neil said:
I think 6% - 7% in the seats they contest (5% ish overall) is way too high for the Green party at the GE. Indeed there is surely some comfort for Labour that the high Green polling now is squeezable in their favour by next May.peter_from_putney said:
Second the Greens' resurgence suggesting that they are likely to win 6% - 7% of the vote in those seats they contest, again principally at Labour's expense and perhaps sufficient to precent them from otherwise winning in say 5 - 10 marginals.
Yes, anecdotal. But life-long Labour, active Tory-haters, who find the idea of Osborne continuing in office about on a par with Ebola appearing down their street - but they are voting Green.Neil said:
Well, yes, anecdotal evidence!MarqueeMark said:
My anecdotal evidence is not whilst Ed is in charge. He is the reason a number of my leftist chums have gone green.....Neil said:
I think 6% - 7% in the seats they contest (5% ish overall) is way too high for the Green party at the GE. Indeed there is surely some comfort for Labour that the high Green polling now is squeezable in their favour by next May.peter_from_putney said:
Second the Greens' resurgence suggesting that they are likely to win 6% - 7% of the vote in those seats they contest, again principally at Labour's expense and perhaps sufficient to precent them from otherwise winning in say 5 - 10 marginals.
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Well, given that he and Danny Alexander have reportedly not spoken for weeks, maybe Danny will claim the credit for those parts of the Curate's Egg budget that the LibDem faithful (SId and Doris Bonkers) quite liked.....Neil said:
Today was quite a success for the Business Secretary. Many of the arguments he has been making over the course of this Parliament were accepted. His department is an obvious winner from the Statement (eg the extension of British Business Bank schemes).MarqueeMark said:Vince Cable's face today was a picture. Chewing on a hornet doesn't begin to convey his obvious displeasure at being sat on the side of the House delivering this Statement.
I really don't know why he carries on in politics.
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“Total public spending is now projected to fall to 35.2% of GDP by 2019-20, taking it below the previous post-war lows reached in 1957-8 and 1999-2000 to what would probably be its lowest level in 80 years”. According to the OBR, however Cable and Clegg seem to differ with Osborne on this point
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/03/autumn-statement-2014-george-osborne-spending-cuts0 -
SNP councillors suspended over burning of Smith Report
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/03/snp-suspends-renfrewshire-councillors-burning-smith-commission-report-sturgeon0 -
Swedish PM:
Appointed on 3rd October.
Lost budget vote on 3rd December.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Löfven0 -
Then where would I get my positive reinforcement from??isam said:
You might as well have asked last night, would have got the same answer from labour and Tory loyalists as you'll get nowRobD said:Due to a busy day at work, haven't had a chance to watch the Autumn Statement. What was the PB verdict?
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It was brilliant news for the insurgents Kippers natch.RobD said:
Then where would I get my positive reinforcement from??isam said:
You might as well have asked last night, would have got the same answer from labour and Tory loyalists as you'll get nowRobD said:Due to a busy day at work, haven't had a chance to watch the Autumn Statement. What was the PB verdict?
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We all love our friends. But we'd be foolish to base any political judgements on them.MarqueeMark said:Neil said:
Well, yes, anecdotal evidence!MarqueeMark said:
My anecdotal evidence is not whilst Ed is in charge. He is the reason a number of my leftist chums have gone green.....Neil said:
I think 6% - 7% in the seats they contest (5% ish overall) is way too high for the Green party at the GE. Indeed there is surely some comfort for Labour that the high Green polling now is squeezable in their favour by next May.peter_from_putney said:
Second the Greens' resurgence suggesting that they are likely to win 6% - 7% of the vote in those seats they contest, again principally at Labour's expense and perhaps sufficient to precent them from otherwise winning in say 5 - 10 marginals.
Yes, anecdotal. But life-long Labour, active Tory-haters, who find the idea of Osborne continuing in office about on a par with Ebola appearing down their street - but they are voting Green.Neil said:
Well, yes, anecdotal evidence!MarqueeMark said:
My anecdotal evidence is not whilst Ed is in charge. He is the reason a number of my leftist chums have gone green.....Neil said:
I think 6% - 7% in the seats they contest (5% ish overall) is way too high for the Green party at the GE. Indeed there is surely some comfort for Labour that the high Green polling now is squeezable in their favour by next May.peter_from_putney said:
Second the Greens' resurgence suggesting that they are likely to win 6% - 7% of the vote in those seats they contest, again principally at Labour's expense and perhaps sufficient to precent them from otherwise winning in say 5 - 10 marginals.
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I'm so not with it I had to look up "natch" in the "Urban Dictionary". I assume that is a reputable source for definitions!!Scrapheap_as_was said:
It was brilliant news for the insurgents Kippers natch.RobD said:
Then where would I get my positive reinforcement from??isam said:
You might as well have asked last night, would have got the same answer from labour and Tory loyalists as you'll get nowRobD said:Due to a busy day at work, haven't had a chance to watch the Autumn Statement. What was the PB verdict?
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Both George Osborne and Danny Alexander will be delighted with the Scotsman front page too.
Twitter
Scotsman @TheScotsman now39 seconds ago
Today's Scotsman front page: Race against time to avoid SNP's tax hike http://bit.ly/1zjqPPRaudreyanne said:peter_from_putney said:The sure sign for me that the Tories were starting to edge ahead has been the unmistakeable bashing they've been taking in the PB thread headings evident over the past couple of weeks.
If you don't agree, go back and count them for yourself! haha!
Brilliant headlines from the right and centre papers tomorrow.
The Sun has come up with a particular gem, both for Osborne and EdM.0 -
Yesterday's the National front page back fired spectacularly...HYUFD said:
SNP councillors suspended over burning of Smith Report
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/03/snp-suspends-renfrewshire-councillors-burning-smith-commission-report-sturgeon0 -
Fitalass Indeed, some divisions emerging
Meanwhile, Anthony Wells and UK Polling Report now officially predicting a hung Parliament with Labour just short of a majority http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Night!0 -
You couldn't make it up...
Russell Brand pays £5k a month to his tax-exile landlords
Fight the power, fight the man...what you want five grand a month to rent that pad and you want it wired to a tax haven, no problem mate. PARKLIFE....0
