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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Tories do manage to stay in power after May 7th much

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited December 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Tories do manage to stay in power after May 7th much of the credit will go to George Osborne

The autumn statement was always going to be a major event on the road to May 7th and George Osborne didn’t disappoint. So many different ideas and measures all designed to make it harder for Labour in the economic debate in the run up to the election and to block out the kippers.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited December 2014
    First past the post!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Then, Sunil, you can pay the Primo Levy.....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Then, Sunil, you can pay the Primo Levy.....

    Sunil falling to his death seems a wee bit harsh as a penalty for the first post of the thread.

  • If this thread doesn't summon up Tim from the depths of the Mines of Moria, nothing will.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited December 2014
    'If the Tories are after May 7th much of the credit will go to George Osborne'


    However, Mr Alanbrooke may have a different opinion.... ; )

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    JackW said:

    Then, Sunil, you can pay the Primo Levy.....

    Sunil falling to his death seems a wee bit harsh as a penalty for the first post of the thread.

    That's the trouble though with these Statements Jack, the devil is always discovered later in the detail....

  • If this thread doesn't summon up Tim from the depths of the Mines of Moria, nothing will.

    The boy did brilliant.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    The stamp duty move looks like a pretty basic rebuttal to Labour's mansion tax plans.

    Does it not make it easier for Labour to paint the Conservatives as "on the side of those who own £1m houses", though?
  • JackW said:

    Then, Sunil, you can pay the Primo Levy.....

    Sunil falling to his death seems a wee bit harsh as a penalty for the first post of the thread.

    I will use my magic ELBOWs to miraculously stop my fall! I am a leaf on the wind, watch me soar!

    :)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited December 2014
    The stamp duty total revamp is a 'cut through' policy - yes some will be peeved who've completed recently but generally it feels like you are better off even if you aren't about to buy now... but ever hope to in future, for all but the buyers over £937k properties, that's now looking a lot less painful to do so. It also helps for those planning on downsizing in future too.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Then, Sunil, you can pay the Primo Levy.....

    Sunil falling to his death seems a wee bit harsh as a penalty for the first post of the thread.

    I will use my magic ELBOWs to miraculously stop my fall! I am a leaf on the wind, watch me soar!

    :)
    SPLAT ....

    Another PB promise broken ....

  • JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Then, Sunil, you can pay the Primo Levy.....

    Sunil falling to his death seems a wee bit harsh as a penalty for the first post of the thread.

    I will use my magic ELBOWs to miraculously stop my fall! I am a leaf on the wind, watch me soar!

    :)
    SPLAT ....

    Another PB promise broken ....

    Here's a toast to Primo,
    let's learn not to forget.
    Here's a toast to Primo,
    forgive but don't forget
  • Forza! Allez! GO, our magnificent CotE.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm rewatching Smallville - all two hundred plus shows in a marathon run this week. Are you really Clark Kent, Sunil?

    JackW said:

    Then, Sunil, you can pay the Primo Levy.....

    Sunil falling to his death seems a wee bit harsh as a penalty for the first post of the thread.

    I will use my magic ELBOWs to miraculously stop my fall! I am a leaf on the wind, watch me soar!

    :)
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    JackW said:

    Then, Sunil, you can pay the Primo Levy.....

    Sunil falling to his death seems a wee bit harsh as a penalty for the first post of the thread.

    That's the trouble though with these Statements Jack, the devil is always discovered later in the detail....


    I think you will find that guy resigned yesterday.
  • Plato said:

    I'm rewatching Smallville - all two hundred plus shows in a marathon run this week. Are you really Clark Kent, Sunil?

    JackW said:

    Then, Sunil, you can pay the Primo Levy.....

    Sunil falling to his death seems a wee bit harsh as a penalty for the first post of the thread.

    I will use my magic ELBOWs to miraculously stop my fall! I am a leaf on the wind, watch me soar!

    :)
    That is indeed a marathon! I took nearly 4 months to watch all 4.5 seasons of Battlestar earlier in the year :)
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Tom Whipple @whippletom
    We are moving home next week. Osborne just saved us £400. I'm calling our new fridge freezer George. #AS2014

  • Whither crossover?

    A "part-ELBOW" comprising the five polls so far this week shows Lab 1.4% ahead of Cons.

    Lab 32.8, Con 31.4, UKIP 15.6, LD 7.9
  • blairfblairf Posts: 98
    The stamp duty reforms should be absolute cat-nip to Tory MP's. I tweeting about how the winners from it are massively concentrated in Tory held seats.

    https://twitter.com/Geolytix


  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited December 2014

    The stamp duty move looks like a pretty basic rebuttal to Labour's mansion tax plans.

    Does it not make it easier for Labour to paint the Conservatives as "on the side of those who own £1m houses", though?

    It might go some way to neutering the appeal of the mansion tax, which George knows (unlike many on PB) is popular with voters. However, I don't see why you can't have both. The very rich can afford both to pay 12% stamp duty and a mansion tax.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited December 2014
    I don't think enough credit is given to Osborne for also saving the Union with his unforgettable speech this February in Edinburgh when he exploded Salmond's position on sterling. A formidable statesman.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Whither crossover?

    A "part-ELBOW" comprising the five polls so far this week shows Lab 1.4% ahead of Cons.

    Lab 32.8, Con 31.4, UKIP 15.6, LD 7.9

    I suppose you think that's a humerus comment.

  • The stamp duty total revamp is a 'cut through' policy - yes some will be peeved who've completed recently but generally it feels like you are better off even if you aren't about to buy now... but ever hope to in future, for all but the buyers over £937k properties, that's now looking a lot less painful to do so. It also helps for those planning on downsizing in future too.

    A tweet in point....

    Isabel Hardman‏@IsabelHardman·3 mins3 minutes ago
    Yet another non-political friend texts saying ‘George Osborne saved me quite a bit of money today’.
  • JackW said:

    Whither crossover?

    A "part-ELBOW" comprising the five polls so far this week shows Lab 1.4% ahead of Cons.

    Lab 32.8, Con 31.4, UKIP 15.6, LD 7.9

    I suppose you think that's a humerus comment.

    And cubital greetings to you too, Jack!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    When my GP changed my painkillers back in January - I was awake for 11 days on the trot. I watched whole seasons in a single day without a blink. Or yawn - a most peculiar side effect. And frankly very boring as there was no escape to Nod.

    So he changed them again and I was flat out for 2 days instead! I think Smallville will leak into 8 or 9 days as I've lost most of today giving witness statements to the coppers and getting a recycled kitty [who is behind the sofa]...

    Plato said:

    I'm rewatching Smallville - all two hundred plus shows in a marathon run this week. Are you really Clark Kent, Sunil?

    JackW said:

    Then, Sunil, you can pay the Primo Levy.....

    Sunil falling to his death seems a wee bit harsh as a penalty for the first post of the thread.

    I will use my magic ELBOWs to miraculously stop my fall! I am a leaf on the wind, watch me soar!

    :)
    That is indeed a marathon! I took nearly 4 months to watch all 4.5 seasons of Battlestar earlier in the year :)
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Nice to find myself agreeing 100% with Mike's thread. Spot on.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    I don't think enough credit is given to Osborne for also saving the Union with his unforgettable speech this February in Edinburgh when he exploded Salmond's position on sterling. A formidable statesman.

    yes, look at the size of that Tory majority
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    By the way: amazingly positive responses on BBC News just now from random and mixed people in Northampton, who were also extremely well informed.

    It WILL come down to the economy. The only reason immigration matters is that some people think it affects their economic well-being. It's bugger all to do with anything else. Put crudely, white van man likes his tikka masala.
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    Don't forget the APD changes, will be saving parents a lot of money when they book their holidays.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    By the way: amazingly positive responses on BBC News just now from random and mixed people in Northampton, who were also extremely well informed.

    It WILL come down to the economy. The only reason immigration matters is that some people think it affects their economic well-being. It's bugger all to do with anything else. Put crudely, white van man likes his tikka masala.

    Washed down with Czech Pilsner!

    We shall see if the smoke and mirrors are concealing much at the weekend when the full analysis goes through.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Today was probably the last big political event before the election campaign itself. We need some defections/by-elections sharpish to keep things interesting.
  • Mr. Artist, are we not beyond the point at which by-elections would be called?
  • The stamp duty total revamp is a 'cut through' policy - yes some will be peeved who've completed recently but generally it feels like you are better off even if you aren't about to buy now... but ever hope to in future, for all but the buyers over £937k properties, that's now looking a lot less painful to do so. It also helps for those planning on downsizing in future too.

    I agree with you and OGH's article. As a paid up member of the anti-Osborne faction this budget looks brilliant.


  • Moses_ said:

    Tom Whipple @whippletom
    We are moving home next week. Osborne just saved us £400. I'm calling our new fridge freezer George. #AS2014

    I know him.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited December 2014
    Well he still doesn't think he needs to get his kit off and streak down Whitehall......


    Telegraph - Dan Hodges

    "Unfortunately for Ed Balls, none of this actually matters any more. The debate about the economy effectively ended in June 2013, when the ONS revised its figures, and announced that there had been no double-dip recession after all. That was the moment the Labour Party’s increasingly desperate hopes of regaining their economic credibility finally died. And there was nothing Ed Balls was ever going to be able to do or say today to bring them back to life.

    So now the political struggle that defined the parliament is over. The two rivals are hurtling through the air, locked in one final, fateful embrace. Soon they will strike the water, and disappear from view.




    Only one of them can survive the fall. His name is George Osborne."

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Can someone do us the favour of going back to the pbc thread the day the Scottish Government announced its reform to stamp duty and tell us how wonderful everyone thought it was back then?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    Tom Whipple @whippletom
    We are moving home next week. Osborne just saved us £400. I'm calling our new fridge freezer George. #AS2014

    I know him.

    LoL
  • I'm genuinely pleased he's sorted stamp duty. I'm sure lots of people will feel good will towards Osborne for removing what were a stupid set of hurdles to free movement.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Neil said:

    Can someone do us the favour of going back to the pbc thread the day the Scottish Government announced its reform to stamp duty and tell us how wonderful everyone thought it was back then?

    The stamp duty with completely different thresholds and a completely different effect? Why?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    In power in Stormont but would you want to rely on them to keep a Government afloat in Westminster? A study that doesnt tell us much new about flegs but puts in stark terms how far Northern Ireland politicians still have to travel.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/dup-uup-flags-pamphlet-catalytic-in-fanning-loyalist-fury-1.2024554
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    GeoffM said:

    Neil said:

    Can someone do us the favour of going back to the pbc thread the day the Scottish Government announced its reform to stamp duty and tell us how wonderful everyone thought it was back then?

    The stamp duty with completely different thresholds and a completely different effect? Why?
    So we can all laugh.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    Can someone do us the favour of going back to the pbc thread the day the Scottish Government announced its reform to stamp duty and tell us how wonderful everyone thought it was back then?

    1) it wasn't a net giveaway like George's change
    2) the break even point was much lower - more modest homes are better off unlike the SNP's bash the middle classes approach.

    So similar but rUk got the best deal.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Wasn't the reduction of the 50% rate to 45% supposed to unleash the torrent of taxes into government coffers.

    Guess what, the bastards are still not paying their taxes despite getting a 5% reduction.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    Can someone do us the favour of going back to the pbc thread the day the Scottish Government announced its reform to stamp duty and tell us how wonderful everyone thought it was back then?

    1) it wasn't a net giveaway like George's change
    2) the break even point was much lower - more modest homes are better off unlike the SNP's bash the middle classes approach.

    So similar but rUk got the best deal.
    I had a feeling you might be more defensive than most.
  • I don't think enough credit is given to Osborne for also saving the Union with his unforgettable speech this February in Edinburgh when he exploded Salmond's position on sterling. A formidable statesman.

    yes, look at the size of that Tory majority

    Your churlish attitude towards Osborne is beneath your usual high standards. He's plainly excellent.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    I don't think enough credit is given to Osborne for also saving the Union with his unforgettable speech this February in Edinburgh when he exploded Salmond's position on sterling. A formidable statesman.

    yes, look at the size of that Tory majority

    Your churlish attitude towards Osborne is beneath your usual high standards. He's plainly excellent.
    LOL I'll happily churl. The main challenge to Osborne remains as it always has this Parliament from the fiscal right - Labour have no policies. Osborne has wasted an entire Parliament by refusing to address overdue reforms. GO =Gordon Osborne politics triumphs over economic need.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Plato said:

    I've lost most of today giving witness statements to the coppers

    Armed uprising in Eastborne?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    Can someone do us the favour of going back to the pbc thread the day the Scottish Government announced its reform to stamp duty and tell us how wonderful everyone thought it was back then?

    1) it wasn't a net giveaway like George's change
    2) the break even point was much lower - more modest homes are better off unlike the SNP's bash the middle classes approach.

    So similar but rUk got the best deal.
    I had a feeling you might be more defensive than most.
    You don't approve of this progressive measure ?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893

    Mr. Artist, are we not beyond the point at which by-elections would be called?

    You'd imagine anyone wanting to defect would have to decide before the recess in two weeks time. They may just get away with a January/early February by-election but even then it looks a bit silly so close to the General Election.

    UKIP especially need something to help them stay in the news in the early months of next year. I imagine Labour and the Conservatives will continue to drip feed policies weekly.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The stamp duty changes are ideal for the next Labour government. Just increase the band rates for houses above £500k and slot in 2 extra bands - £1.2m and £ 1.5m.

    Also a new one at , say, £3m @ 9%. Let the Russian mafia or the *ankers pay !

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    GO =Gordon Osborne politics triumphs over economic need.

    Maybe, but this is a budget to win an election.

    IF they get a majority, Osborne can afford to be at 20% in the polls in 2016. It won;t matter. And that is when the spending cuts will come.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    Can someone do us the favour of going back to the pbc thread the day the Scottish Government announced its reform to stamp duty and tell us how wonderful everyone thought it was back then?

    1) it wasn't a net giveaway like George's change
    2) the break even point was much lower - more modest homes are better off unlike the SNP's bash the middle classes approach.

    So similar but rUk got the best deal.
    I had a feeling you might be more defensive than most.
    You don't approve of this progressive measure ?
    Oh I'm in the lucky position of having exactly the same views on this as when the Scottish Government did it.

  • I don't think enough credit is given to Osborne for also saving the Union with his unforgettable speech this February in Edinburgh when he exploded Salmond's position on sterling. A formidable statesman.

    yes, look at the size of that Tory majority

    Your churlish attitude towards Osborne is beneath your usual high standards. He's plainly excellent.
    LOL I'll happily churl. The main challenge to Osborne remains as it always has this Parliament from the fiscal right - Labour have no policies. Osborne has wasted an entire Parliament by refusing to address overdue reforms. GO =Gordon Osborne politics triumphs over economic need.
    Osborne's challenge was to get the private sector growing and generating jobs again. He's succeeded in that beyond all expectation.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    George's statements always look good. Until they start being unpicked. Don't join the chorus OGH..
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Artist said:

    Mr. Artist, are we not beyond the point at which by-elections would be called?

    You'd imagine anyone wanting to defect would have to decide before the recess in two weeks time. They may just get away with a January/early February by-election but even then it looks a bit silly so close to the General Election.

    UKIP especially need something to help them stay in the news in the early months of next year. I imagine Labour and the Conservatives will continue to drip feed policies weekly.
    It is hard to see a traitorous pig dog defection now doing anything useful in a byelection. The novelty value has worn off.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    By the way: amazingly positive responses on BBC News just now from random and mixed people in Northampton, who were also extremely well informed.

    It WILL come down to the economy. The only reason immigration matters is that some people think it affects their economic well-being. It's bugger all to do with anything else. Put crudely, white van man likes his tikka masala.

    Usually, the early "good" reaction turns out to be a political disaster. The stamp duty changes does help massively in Tory seats but how does that get them more seats ?

    London will not vote Tory anyway.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Also a new one at , say, £3m @ 9%. Let the Russian mafia or the *ankers pay !

    You guys want to rob the rich. That's fine, but you sure as hell ain;t givin back to no poor....

    Voters are noticing.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Did Ozzie freeze fuel duty today??

    Heap strong medicine.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @steve_hawkes: Danny Alexander: "Today was one of the most Lib Dem fiscal events we have done."


    @jameschappers: Govt source tells me Cable erupted at Alexander in Cabinet today, complaining about Lib Dem backing for future cuts/spending plans #AS2014
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    The stamp duty changes are ideal for the next Labour government. Just increase the band rates for houses above £500k and slot in 2 extra bands - £1.2m and £ 1.5m.

    Also a new one at , say, £3m @ 9%. Let the Russian mafia or the *ankers pay !

    Stamp duty is a tax on Labour mobility. Better to abolish it completely in favour of a better annual property tax system.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    taffys said:

    Also a new one at , say, £3m @ 9%. Let the Russian mafia or the *ankers pay !

    You guys want to rob the rich. That's fine, but you sure as hell ain;t givin back to no poor....

    Voters are noticing.

    9% would of course be a cut at that level, but detail has always been an issue for the red team.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Watching it now - Balls isn't even trying it's that bad
  • On topic, if.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    surbiton said:

    Wasn't the reduction of the 50% rate to 45% supposed to unleash the torrent of taxes into government coffers.

    Guess what, the bastards are still not paying their taxes despite getting a 5% reduction.

    If they are not paying anyway what does it matter what rate you nominally charge them?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    By the way: amazingly positive responses on BBC News just now from random and mixed people in Northampton, who were also extremely well informed.

    It WILL come down to the economy. The only reason immigration matters is that some people think it affects their economic well-being. It's bugger all to do with anything else. Put crudely, white van man likes his tikka masala.

    You think tikka massala, or any other significant ethnic food, is made or sold by first generation immigrants (or in other words, immigrants)?

    You probably do.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    I don't think enough credit is given to Osborne for also saving the Union with his unforgettable speech this February in Edinburgh when he exploded Salmond's position on sterling. A formidable statesman.

    yes, look at the size of that Tory majority

    Your churlish attitude towards Osborne is beneath your usual high standards. He's plainly excellent.
    LOL I'll happily churl. The main challenge to Osborne remains as it always has this Parliament from the fiscal right - Labour have no policies. Osborne has wasted an entire Parliament by refusing to address overdue reforms. GO =Gordon Osborne politics triumphs over economic need.
    Osborne's challenge was to get the private sector growing and generating jobs again. He's succeeded in that beyond all expectation.
    How could he not when he's borrowing 5% of GDP ? Brown did the same. If the growth was coming from a rebalanced economy with the trade deficit steadily coming down he's deserve and get the praise. But it's just another borrowing binge.

  • Plato said:

    I'm rewatching Smallville - all two hundred plus shows in a marathon run this week. Are you really Clark Kent, Sunil?

    JackW said:

    Then, Sunil, you can pay the Primo Levy.....

    Sunil falling to his death seems a wee bit harsh as a penalty for the first post of the thread.

    I will use my magic ELBOWs to miraculously stop my fall! I am a leaf on the wind, watch me soar!

    :)
    200+ hours in one week? You'll be needing Superman to do his flying round the earth against the rotation thing to lengthen the week a tad!

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @AlanRoden: Ouch: Tory @George_Osborne appears more "progressive" on stamp duty than SNP's @JohnSwinney, according to ICAS: http://t.co/fMWzowlzee
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    Wasn't the reduction of the 50% rate to 45% supposed to unleash the torrent of taxes into government coffers.

    Guess what, the bastards are still not paying their taxes despite getting a 5% reduction.

    If they are not paying anyway what does it matter what rate you nominally charge them?
    that does of course cut both ways Charles ;-)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Brent Crude drops below $70:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    surbiton said:

    Wasn't the reduction of the 50% rate to 45% supposed to unleash the torrent of taxes into government coffers.

    Guess what, the bastards are still not paying their taxes despite getting a 5% reduction.

    So the extra 5% didn't claw in any extra revenue then. Nice to have that confirmed.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    AndyJS said:

    Brent Crude drops below $70:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

    It's a victory for Eck ! ( or should that be Nicola ?)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Am I alone in liking George's jokes, the one about poor ED Miliband was most amusing
  • I don't think enough credit is given to Osborne for also saving the Union with his unforgettable speech this February in Edinburgh when he exploded Salmond's position on sterling. A formidable statesman.

    yes, look at the size of that Tory majority

    Your churlish attitude towards Osborne is beneath your usual high standards. He's plainly excellent.
    LOL I'll happily churl. The main challenge to Osborne remains as it always has this Parliament from the fiscal right - Labour have no policies. Osborne has wasted an entire Parliament by refusing to address overdue reforms. GO =Gordon Osborne politics triumphs over economic need.
    Osborne's challenge was to get the private sector growing and generating jobs again. He's succeeded in that beyond all expectation.
    How could he not when he's borrowing 5% of GDP ? Brown did the same. If the growth was coming from a rebalanced economy with the trade deficit steadily coming down he's deserve and get the praise. But it's just another borrowing binge.

    Nonsense. Brown inherited a golden legacy which he turned into a golden shower. Osborne has performed miracles with an economy debauched by thirteen years of Labour delinquency.
  • Ishmael_X said:

    By the way: amazingly positive responses on BBC News just now from random and mixed people in Northampton, who were also extremely well informed.

    It WILL come down to the economy. The only reason immigration matters is that some people think it affects their economic well-being. It's bugger all to do with anything else. Put crudely, white van man likes his tikka masala.

    You think tikka massala, or any other significant ethnic food, is made or sold by first generation immigrants (or in other words, immigrants)?

    You probably do.
    I do:

    http://www.workpermit.com/news/2013-12-05/uk-prime-minister-says-asian-chefs-will-be-able-to-come-to-uk
  • Thread at the time of the SNP's change to property tax:

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/10/09/71525/
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited December 2014
    I'm expecting the stamp duty reform thing to be popular, further proving that people are quite bluntly sick of austerity, and feel that after we've all done this hard work that it's time for some rewards. I expect the Conservatives to make very little mention of spending cuts during the election campaign.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls with his comically bad political nous finds himself completely incapable of taking advantage of the "austerity fatigue". He was pushing an anti-austerity message at a time when people were grudgingly accepting it as necessary (which I still maintain was mainly due to the news being filled with the European debt crisis; now that that's gone, it's just not obvious to the "man on the street" why having a deficit should be such a big danger), yet over the past year has changed his tune just as the public mood was changing. If he was still pushing his original message it would probably be finally starting to resonate now.
  • Today's changes in stamp duty seem so much fairer and indeed more logical. Why didn't either side of the great political divide consider introducing them before?
    Btw, do these new arrangements also apply to commercial property transactions? - If so, this looks like exceedingly bad news for property companies.
  • Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195
    Danny565 said:

    I'm expecting the stamp duty reform thing to be popular, further proving that people are quite bluntly sick of austerity, and feel that after we've all done this hard work that it's time for some rewards. I expect the Conservatives to make very little mention of spending cuts during the election campaign.

    Meanwhile, Ed Balls with his comically bad political nous finds himself completely incapable of taking advantage of the "austerity fatigue". He was pushing an anti-austerity message at a time when people were grudgingly accepting it as necessary (which I still maintain was mainly due to the news being filled with the European debt crisis; now that that's gone, it's just not obvious to the "man on the street" why having a deficit should be such a big danger), yet over the past year has changed his tune just as the public mood was changing. If he was still pushing his original message it would probably be finally starting to resonate now.

    Correct - spending cuts/deficit busting is unlikely to be a central feature of the campaign. I have long predicted this - often to derision on here!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    I don't think enough credit is given to Osborne for also saving the Union with his unforgettable speech this February in Edinburgh when he exploded Salmond's position on sterling. A formidable statesman.

    yes, look at the size of that Tory majority

    Your churlish attitude towards Osborne is beneath your usual high standards. He's plainly excellent.
    LOL I'll happily churl. The main challenge to Osborne remains as it always has this Parliament from the fiscal right - Labour have no policies. Osborne has wasted an entire Parliament by refusing to address overdue reforms. GO =Gordon Osborne politics triumphs over economic need.
    Osborne's challenge was to get the private sector growing and generating jobs again. He's succeeded in that beyond all expectation.
    How could he not when he's borrowing 5% of GDP ? Brown did the same. If the growth was coming from a rebalanced economy with the trade deficit steadily coming down he's deserve and get the praise. But it's just another borrowing binge.

    Nonsense. Brown inherited a golden legacy which he turned into a golden shower. Osborne has performed miracles with an economy debauched by thirteen years of Labour delinquency.
    We clearly have different definitions of the word miracle. Osborne has been a run of the mill chancellor faced with an extraordinary situation. He hasn't risen to the challenge.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If he was still pushing his original message it would probably be finally starting to resonate now.

    The beauty of the stamp duty reform is that it appears to SHIFT the burden of taxation rather than increase it.

    There's an immediate payback for the ordinary voter.
  • The WHO has released its latest Ebola report.

    http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/?m=20141203

    Sunday marked the 60 day point in the WHO's turnaround plan. The aim by this point was to isolate 70% of cases and safely bury 70% of bodies. The WHO has fudged its target by saying it doesn't know for sure how many cases are isolated and how many bodies are safely buried due to patients being hidden from the health authorities. However, it says each country has the capacity to isolate all cases and bury bodies so it has effectively met its targets.

    There is a big difference across the 3 affected countries.

    Liberia has massively dropped and had 40 cases this week compared to a high of 300
    Guinea has been stable for some time at around 75-150 cases per week. There is concern about increased spread in the districts near the Mali border
    Sierra Leone is still seeing an increase in cases with over 500 in the past week.

    Liberia has received a lot of help from the US
    France has been helping Guinea
    We have been helping Sierra Leone

    This may not reflect very well on us especially when there have been articles like this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-30270341
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,679
    I doubt that he'll get many good headlines (except for stamp duty) and I doubt that there will be a boost in the polls. We'll soon see.

    The only new stuff was the stamp duty. It was sensible to do away with the "slab" approach (which was ridiculous). The new tiered approach is being supported by the Labour Party. I doubt that it is a vote winner. Unless you are actually moving house (a very small proportion of voters over the next few weeks) you won't bother trying to understand it. On the face of it, it looks as if rates have actually gone up and from the blogs it looks as if there is a lot of misunderstanding on this point.

    It is clear he has missed his targets yet again on the deficit. As well as being a serial loser, he is being found out as a serial spinner ("halving" the EU bill for £1.7b, announcng yet again the flood and infrastructure projects) and his credibility is suffering - not helped by the viral clip of him last week in an odd state.

    As for his leadership ambitions, his price has just gone out to 9.0 on Betfair.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I don't think enough credit is given to Osborne for also saving the Union with his unforgettable speech this February in Edinburgh when he exploded Salmond's position on sterling. A formidable statesman.

    Support for independence went up after his speech. At the start of the year Indy was polling at 35%.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited December 2014
    Barnesian said:

    I doubt that he'll get many good headlines (except for stamp duty) and I doubt that there will be a boost in the polls. We'll soon see.

    The only new stuff was the stamp duty. It was sensible to do away with the "slab" approach (which was ridiculous). The new tiered approach is being supported by the Labour Party. I doubt that it is a vote winner. Unless you are actually moving house (a very small proportion of voters over the next few weeks) you won't bother trying to understand it. On the face of it, it looks as if rates have actually gone up and from the blogs it looks as if there is a lot of misunderstanding on this point.

    It is clear he has missed his targets yet again on the deficit. As well as being a serial loser, he is being found out as a serial spinner ("halving" the EU bill for £1.7b, announcng yet again the flood and infrastructure projects) and his credibility is suffering - not helped by the viral clip of him last week in an odd state.

    As for his leadership ambitions, his price has just gone out to 9.0 on Betfair.

    methinks you protesteth too much
    George Osborne= he came , he saw, he conquered
    Ed Balls= yesterdays failure
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    George claimed we were the fastest growing major economy. Does he not consider the US a major economy?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Barnesian said:


    It is clear he has missed his targets yet again on the deficit. As well as being a serial loser, he is being found out as a serial spinner

    Mr Darling had a nice line today:
    "Osborne did his best to make a virtue of necessity. “The deficit is no longer down by a third, but now cut in half,” he said. Behind him, his Conservative Party colleagues cheered.

    Osborne originally planned to all but eliminate the budget gap by next year. It was left to Alistair Darling, Labour chancellor of the Exchequer until 2010, to point out much later that cutting the deficit by 50 percent by 2015 had been his own policy.

    “It used to be his view,” Darling said of Osborne, “that that wasn’t a good thing to be doing.”"
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-03/cameron-upstages-osborne-with-balls-maso-sadism-accusation.html
  • Alistair said:

    I don't think enough credit is given to Osborne for also saving the Union with his unforgettable speech this February in Edinburgh when he exploded Salmond's position on sterling. A formidable statesman.

    Support for independence went up after his speech.
    Correlation does not equal causation. You don't think his, and the other UK party's refusal to share the pound played a role?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    George claimed we were the fastest growing major economy.

    He didn't.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Barnesian said:

    I doubt that he'll get many good headlines (except for stamp duty) and I doubt that there will be a boost in the polls. We'll soon see.

    The only new stuff was the stamp duty. It was sensible to do away with the "slab" approach (which was ridiculous). The new tiered approach is being supported by the Labour Party. I doubt that it is a vote winner. Unless you are actually moving house (a very small proportion of voters over the next few weeks) you won't bother trying to understand it. On the face of it, it looks as if rates have actually gone up and from the blogs it looks as if there is a lot of misunderstanding on this point.

    It is clear he has missed his targets yet again on the deficit. As well as being a serial loser, he is being found out as a serial spinner ("halving" the EU bill for £1.7b, announcng yet again the flood and infrastructure projects) and his credibility is suffering - not helped by the viral clip of him last week in an odd state.

    As for his leadership ambitions, his price has just gone out to 9.0 on Betfair.

    Pretty pathetic effort really.
    You fail to look at spending. You fail to look at all the public sector job losses. You fail to look at all the new jobs being created. You fail to look at the record fall in youth unemployed. You fail to look at the cut in the structural deficit.
    The fact that the target was moved is to the Chancellors credit. He sustained the economy through the Eurozone crisis and the accompanying widespread drop in confidence.

    Would we be miraculously better off if somehow the deficit were smaller today as opposed to next year? What is important is that unlike under Labour, spending is under control.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    Wasn't the reduction of the 50% rate to 45% supposed to unleash the torrent of taxes into government coffers.

    Guess what, the bastards are still not paying their taxes despite getting a 5% reduction.

    If they are not paying anyway what does it matter what rate you nominally charge them?
    that does of course cut both ways Charles ;-)
    True. But then I believe that businesses (including banks and bankers) should make a contribution to the societies in which they operate
  • blairfblairf Posts: 98
    Doesn't apply to commercial property.... could lead to some *interesting* workarounds ;-)

    Why not applied before? V Good question, I suspect Osborne has had this *in the bank* ready to go for a few years.

    Today's changes in stamp duty seem so much fairer and indeed more logical. Why didn't either side of the great political divide consider introducing them before?
    Btw, do these new arrangements also apply to commercial property transactions? - If so, this looks like exceedingly bad news for property companies.

  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    I don't think enough credit is given to Osborne for also saving the Union with his unforgettable speech this February in Edinburgh when he exploded Salmond's position on sterling. A formidable statesman.

    yes, look at the size of that Tory majority

    Your churlish attitude towards Osborne is beneath your usual high standards. He's plainly excellent.
    LOL I'll happily churl. The main challenge to Osborne remains as it always has this Parliament from the fiscal right - Labour have no policies. Osborne has wasted an entire Parliament by refusing to address overdue reforms. GO =Gordon Osborne politics triumphs over economic need.
    Osborne's challenge was to get the private sector growing and generating jobs again. He's succeeded in that beyond all expectation.
    How could he not when he's borrowing 5% of GDP ? Brown did the same. If the growth was coming from a rebalanced economy with the trade deficit steadily coming down he's deserve and get the praise. But it's just another borrowing binge.

    Nonsense. Brown inherited a golden legacy which he turned into a golden shower. Osborne has performed miracles with an economy debauched by thirteen years of Labour delinquency.
    We clearly have different definitions of the word miracle. Osborne has been a run of the mill chancellor faced with an extraordinary situation. He hasn't risen to the challenge.
    Now we know you are talking nonesense to back up a hackneyed argument.
  • Alistair said:

    I don't think enough credit is given to Osborne for also saving the Union with his unforgettable speech this February in Edinburgh when he exploded Salmond's position on sterling. A formidable statesman.

    Support for independence went up after his speech. At the start of the year Indy was polling at 35%.
    Salmond described independence as "inevitable", thanks to Osborne it proved evitable.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Ishmael_X said:

    .

    You think tikka massala, or any other significant ethnic food, is made or sold by first generation immigrants (or in other words, immigrants)?

    You probably do.
    The tikka masala comment was slightly tongue in cheek, but also with serious intent. The vast majority of white Brits quite like having a bit of a mix. We're used to travelling abroad these days and experiencing a bit of variety. We're a mostly tolerant bunch providing no-one starts taking the piss. And, yes, we like our Chinese and Indian takeaways. Sorry if that appears to trivialise the UKIP meme.
    Barnesian said:

    I doubt that he'll get many good headlines

    It is clear he has missed his targets yet again on the deficit.

    Yawn. Better than expected figures. Yawn.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited December 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Brent Crude drops below $70:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

    The notion of Scotttish indepencdence falls through the floor. What fools all those who voted YES must feel now after believig Salmonds rubbish. And of course we can now see why the notion of independence with a £ currency union was such a non starter for rUK
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited December 2014
    Artist said:

    Today was probably the last big political event before the election campaign itself. We need some defections/by-elections sharpish to keep things interesting.

    Erm. The Budget in March?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    AndyJS said:

    Brent Crude drops below $70:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

    The notion of Scotttish indepencdence falls through the floor. What fools all those who voted YES must feel now after believig Salmonds rubbish. And of course we can now see why the notion of independence with a £ currency union was such a non starter for rUK
    The Scots seemed to have palyed a blinder. They've managed to get some new tax powers whilst maintaining the Barnett formula whilst decreased north sea oil revenues will make Scotland a considerable net recipient of UK funds.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    Suppose I suggested that a council tenant should surrender 12% of everything he owns when he moves. How would that go down?

    Osborne has sadly shown that he is a spineless lightweight. His only motivation is to win votes.

    We need some new politicians. The stage has never been better set for UKIP. Or for that matter Monster Raving Loony.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    George claimed we were the fastest growing major economy. Does he not consider the US a major economy?

    He said third fastest growing major economy.
    Alistair said:

    I don't think enough credit is given to Osborne for also saving the Union with his unforgettable speech this February in Edinburgh when he exploded Salmond's position on sterling. A formidable statesman.

    Support for independence went up after his speech. At the start of the year Indy was polling at 35%.
    No currency Union was cited by many of the 55% as the reason to vote No.
This discussion has been closed.