Kevin Hollinrake, the business minister, has said he placed a bet on the Conservatives to win the election, but added that gambling on his constituency seat would be “wrong”.
Although Mr Hollinrake said he bet on the outcome of the General Election, he claimed he would not put a wager on the result of the Thirsk and Malton seat, where he is a candidate.
Asked whether he had bet on a Tory victory, Mr Hollinrake said: “Yes, I did. Not my seat, I think that would be wrong.”
Westminster has been engulfed by a gambling scandal with five Conservatives being investigated by the commission over alleged election bets.
He added: “This situation has definitely opened up a debate that we should have a proper debate about and decide whether it’s right or wrong that people have a bet on things they are involved in.”
The odds of the Conservative Party winning the election on July 4 are 125/1, according to Oddschecker, as the party trails Labour by around 20 points in the opinion polls.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Completing a postal vote for someone else is a criminal offence.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
You don't have 2 votes. You have 1. It is a crime to use your ex wife's vote. Not likely to get caught, but you have admitted it here and voter fraud is usually harshly punished.
Seems a large number of seats for Reform. Can it be so?
skybet have Reform winning 7 seats or more at 2/1 which I think is the current best GE bet out there. They dont even need more than 15% to do this as I think their vote is more lumpy and less evenly distributed that seat calculators think
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I tend to agree with this. The polling has been so consistently, across all companies, showing the Tories in the doldrums that it would pretty much end the polling industry if it is a major upset now.
Caveats:
There will be a lot of seats on razor's edge. A small swing one way or the other could be a difference of 50-odd seats.
Turnout. I'm genuinely unsure where this will end up, but my instinct is that a lower turnout will help the Conservatives as a lot ex-Conservative voters will simply not bother rather than actually switching their vote. Equally, apathy/complacency towards a Labour win may not GOTV for the disengaged who are leaning Lab.
At this stage, I still think we'll have a strong win for Starmer - all the available evidence points to this being the case - but I remain unconvinced by the Con ELE scenario.
Reform seem to be dropping back now. If that trend continues up to polling day and/or polls overstate them, that will mean the difference between the Conservatives becoming the third party, and getting well into three figures.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I tend to agree with this. The polling has been so consistently, across all companies, showing the Tories in the doldrums that it would pretty much end the polling industry if it is a major upset now.
Caveats:
There will be a lot of seats on razor's edge. A small swing one way or the other could be a difference of 50-odd seats.
Turnout. I'm genuinely unsure where this will end up, but my instinct is that a lower turnout will help the Conservatives as a lot ex-Conservative voters will simply not bother rather than actually switching their vote. Equally, apathy/complacency towards a Labour win may not GOTV for the disengaged who are leaning Lab.
At this stage, I still think we'll have a strong win for Starmer - all the available evidence points to this being the case - but I remain unconvinced by the Con ELE scenario.
When that bong goes at ten and we see the exit poll forecast translated into seats...its reliability this year is far from guaranteed.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
What are you gonna do big boy, get the gendarmes on me on Ushant?
It’s been a tough old period to be in government. Covid was a disaster wreaking public finances like a major war. The economic consequences of Putin’s warmongering have also been significant. All this at a time when much of the economy had never really recovered from the sequelae of the GFC.
Governments around the world have struggled. The Tories obviously but also Macron, the German government, and many others.
In the US Biden, who has arguably done the best economically, is struggling against a convicted felon, an abuser of women and a dishonest businessman. Fighting that tide is hard.
In the UK the Tories have aggravated the situation with idiotic policies like Rwanda, cancelling HS2 , failing to deliver on levelling up, focusing on sleight of hand claiming tax cuts when the tax burden is steadily rising and not doing nearly enough to improve the efficiency of a public sector totally focused on the welfare of those working in it rather than those they are supposed to be helping.
They deserve all they are going to get. But I wouldn’t be writing off the Tories in the future. The challenges facing Starmer and Reeves are immense and real and those claiming public services have been drained by nothing more than Tory wickedness are in for a shock.
Would be quite hilarious if the exit poll showed a hung parliament.
That died the second Reform took off.
If (and this is a massive if) the Tories had (largely) stopped the boats, and brought net migration down a bit then, with everything else being equal and no Reform, I could see them being at 32-34% and Labour at 35-38% and we really would have a hung parliament.
SKS is a very lucky general.
SKS's luck extended to Rishi sinking my bets on a January election by calling a July poll. If he'd waited, small boats would be reduced by the winter weather, legal immigration would have fallen as students and Ukraine effects fell out of the figures, the BoE could have reduced interest rates, and so on and so forth.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Whether it's ULEZ, 20mph limits or electoral fraud, the Right's association with Law and Order is eroding fast.
Something to quote next time someone whines about Just Stop Oil.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Completing a postal vote for someone else is a criminal offence.
He knows, he just wants the attention, as always.
And it worked. But also I am probably gonna do this to make the evening more exciting. Will I be arrested?
Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.
Yet his opponents accuse him of being drugged up if he does well, so they win either way.
Trump rambles incoherently constantly but unfortunately none of his supporters care, so an unedifying encounter of two very old men past their prime looks likely. Only one cares about democracy though.
'Drugging up' someone with dementia would be highly unlikely to improve their debate performance.
And we know whose White House was an actual pill mill.
The allegation that he was on some kind of amphetamines for the State of the Union looks quite convincing to me - the sudden extraordinary improvement in lucidity and eloquence was striking, as was the massive relapse to his normal senility thereafter
Moreover they will want to avoid any “accidents”. A medically informed (and left wing) friend of mine recently gave me a plausible explanation for Biden’s weird behaviour on the White House lawn the other day. I’ll spare PB the unhappy details and precise medical words my friend used, but it all made sense
Also, how many octogenarians are NOT on multiple drugs? It’s normal. I am sure Trump is as well. He’s definitely been guzzling ozempic you can see it in his face
I hear before the big speeches debates they give him a really effective drug called SLIIP the night before but apparently it takes a few hours every night for the body to digest it fully so during busy schedules he is more prone to gaffes.
That is ridiculous. Not only are the Tories generally ahead in the polls, FPTP vastly favours them over Reform.
66/1 for something highly unlikely 50/1for something practically impossible
Not really - Reform would get FPTP to work for them if they get 40%
Yebbut they won't get 40%. And the Tories according to ElCalc on 20% get 122 seats, where Reform on 20% (which is the top end of expectations for them, really) would get 8.
One of the podcasts (sorry, forgotten which) suggested Rishi might make a better Leader of the Opposition than Prime Minister, so watch out for his resignation timetable which will probably be aimed at announcing the new leader at Conference in October.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Completing a postal vote for someone else is a criminal offence.
He knows, he just wants the attention, as always.
And it worked. But also I am probably gonna do this to make the evening more exciting. Will I be arrested?
Almost certainly not, but do you fancy a couple of months in prison.
One of the podcasts (sorry, forgotten which) suggested Rishi might make a better Leader of the Opposition than Prime Minister, so watch out for his resignation timetable which will probably be aimed at announcing the new leader at Conference in October.
He would probably do most things better than PM, tbh.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Completing a postal vote for someone else is a criminal offence.
He knows, he just wants the attention, as always.
And it worked. But also I am probably gonna do this to make the evening more exciting. Will I be arrested?
Your development seems to have been arrested at the just past toddler stage?
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Completing a postal vote for someone else is a criminal offence.
He knows, he just wants the attention, as always.
And it worked. But also I am probably gonna do this to make the evening more exciting. Will I be arrested?
Almost certainly not, but do you fancy a couple of months in prison.
Could get a gazette diary piece out of it
What I might do is order her to instruct me to vote Reform on her behalf. She’s quite submissive
I understand this happens a lot in more traditional parts of London, already
That means I don’t break the law but I get the two votes
On topic - Biden can't win the Presidential election tonight but he can definitively lose it, tot he point of being replaced as the Democratic candidate. He has so much more riding on this than Trump. I am very surprised he agreed to it. If he did, of course.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I tend to agree with this. The polling has been so consistently, across all companies, showing the Tories in the doldrums that it would pretty much end the polling industry if it is a major upset now.
Caveats:
There will be a lot of seats on razor's edge. A small swing one way or the other could be a difference of 50-odd seats.
Turnout. I'm genuinely unsure where this will end up, but my instinct is that a lower turnout will help the Conservatives as a lot ex-Conservative voters will simply not bother rather than actually switching their vote. Equally, apathy/complacency towards a Labour win may not GOTV for the disengaged who are leaning Lab.
At this stage, I still think we'll have a strong win for Starmer - all the available evidence points to this being the case - but I remain unconvinced by the Con ELE scenario.
When that bong goes at ten and we see the exit poll forecast translated into seats...its reliability this year is far from guaranteed.
Kevin Hollinrake, the business minister, has said he placed a bet on the Conservatives to win the election, but added that gambling on his constituency seat would be “wrong”.
Although Mr Hollinrake said he bet on the outcome of the General Election, he claimed he would not put a wager on the result of the Thirsk and Malton seat, where he is a candidate.
Asked whether he had bet on a Tory victory, Mr Hollinrake said: “Yes, I did. Not my seat, I think that would be wrong.”
Westminster has been engulfed by a gambling scandal with five Conservatives being investigated by the commission over alleged election bets.
He added: “This situation has definitely opened up a debate that we should have a proper debate about and decide whether it’s right or wrong that people have a bet on things they are involved in.”
The odds of the Conservative Party winning the election on July 4 are 125/1, according to Oddschecker, as the party trails Labour by around 20 points in the opinion polls.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Completing a postal vote for someone else is a criminal offence.
He knows, he just wants the attention, as always.
And it worked. But also I am probably gonna do this to make the evening more exciting. Will I be arrested?
Almost certainly not, but do you fancy a couple of months in prison.
If that curtails the daily travel reporting for a couple of months, I'd say go for it Leon!
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Completing a postal vote for someone else is a criminal offence.
He knows, he just wants the attention, as always.
And it worked. But also I am probably gonna do this to make the evening more exciting. Will I be arrested?
Almost certainly not, but do you fancy a couple of months in prison.
If that curtails the daily travel reporting for a couple of months, I'd say go for it Leon!
I’ve stopped posting photos of my breakfast. Are you now complaining when I simply tell you where I am?
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Completing a postal vote for someone else is a criminal offence.
He knows, he just wants the attention, as always.
And it worked. But also I am probably gonna do this to make the evening more exciting. Will I be arrested?
Almost certainly not, but do you fancy a couple of months in prison.
Could get a gazette diary piece out of it
What I might do is order her to instruct me to vote Reform on her behalf. She’s quite submissive
I understand this happens a lot in more traditional parts of London, already
That means I don’t break the law but I get the two votes
Sadly, some PBers have taken Leon's wind-up at face value.
They are so enormously predictable. However I have just worked out how I can do this without breaking the law. Just ask her to ask me to vote on her behalf. She will certainly agree - she has my sense of humour entirely. It’s why we got married
Sinn Fein are 8/15 with the bookies here . Normally this seat is won in the most marginal way as the unionists only fielded one serious candidate last time to not split the vote . This time it looks like both unionist parties contesting ? Maybe reading this wrong but seems like a Sinn Fein cert (much more so than 8/15) if so
Kevin Hollinrake, the business minister, has said he placed a bet on the Conservatives to win the election, but added that gambling on his constituency seat would be “wrong”.
Although Mr Hollinrake said he bet on the outcome of the General Election, he claimed he would not put a wager on the result of the Thirsk and Malton seat, where he is a candidate.
Asked whether he had bet on a Tory victory, Mr Hollinrake said: “Yes, I did. Not my seat, I think that would be wrong.”
Westminster has been engulfed by a gambling scandal with five Conservatives being investigated by the commission over alleged election bets.
He added: “This situation has definitely opened up a debate that we should have a proper debate about and decide whether it’s right or wrong that people have a bet on things they are involved in.”
The odds of the Conservative Party winning the election on July 4 are 125/1, according to Oddschecker, as the party trails Labour by around 20 points in the opinion polls.
I'm not sure I think he's done anything wrong here tbh (apart from placing an atrocious bet).
Did Ivan Toney do anything wrong backing Brentford to win when he was playing? (He also bet his own teams to lose, but only when he was out injured....)
Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.
Yet his opponents accuse him of being drugged up if he does well, so they win either way.
Trump rambles incoherently constantly but unfortunately none of his supporters care, so an unedifying encounter of two very old men past their prime looks likely. Only one cares about democracy though.
'Drugging up' someone with dementia would be highly unlikely to improve their debate performance.
And we know whose White House was an actual pill mill.
The allegation that he was on some kind of amphetamines for the State of the Union looks quite convincing to me - the sudden extraordinary improvement in lucidity and eloquence was striking, as was the massive relapse to his normal senility thereafter
Moreover they will want to avoid any “accidents”. A medically informed (and left wing) friend of mine recently gave me a plausible explanation for Biden’s weird behaviour on the White House lawn the other day. I’ll spare PB the unhappy details and precise medical words my friend used, but it all made sense
Also, how many octogenarians are NOT on multiple drugs? It’s normal. I am sure Trump is as well. He’s definitely been guzzling ozempic you can see it in his face
I hear before the big speeches debates they give him a really effective drug called SLIIP the night before but apparently it takes a few hours every night for the body to digest it fully so during busy schedules he is more prone to gaffes.
If we had any drugs that were able to reverse dementia like that I think that we would know about it and people like my MIL would be popping them daily.
The whole drugs story is a fantasy designed to explain what happened when GOP delusions hit the reality of an unitermediated Biden who is nothing like the picture the NYT and Fox try to paint every day. A similar discrepancy will occur at the debate tonight so the excuses are being made already.
Well Sunak has not enough to turn things around. The polls seem to show little change since the GE was called which may confirm my hypothesis that the public decided long ago.
When you look at our piss-poor choices on offer for next week a glance across the pond is a useful tonic. Things could be worse...
You don't even have to look across the Pond. Across the Channel will do.
Le Pen obviously. But I don't get the hatred for Macron in these parts. I mean, I get that the fash-curious hate him for having beaten their lass, but otherwise?
The French left seem to hate Macron more than Le Pen. So, if anything, I’d expect more centrist votes to go to RN than the Popular Front in the run offs.
We'll see, but not quite what we were talking about. We were talking about our perceptions of their candidates. Given that 95% of American voters will apparently vote for Biden or Trump there's clearly some willingness there. But I wouldn't want that choice. Contrast that with France. Obviously Le Pen is a nightmare, but would I vote for Macron? Yes. No qualms.
The problem in France is that for many years, there has been a forced choice between the Right and the Fascists. This has made many on the Left bitter. Bitter to the point of abstaining instead of voting to the Right to stop Le Pen - I think so.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I tend to agree with this. The polling has been so consistently, across all companies, showing the Tories in the doldrums that it would pretty much end the polling industry if it is a major upset now.
Caveats:
There will be a lot of seats on razor's edge. A small swing one way or the other could be a difference of 50-odd seats.
Turnout. I'm genuinely unsure where this will end up, but my instinct is that a lower turnout will help the Conservatives as a lot ex-Conservative voters will simply not bother rather than actually switching their vote. Equally, apathy/complacency towards a Labour win may not GOTV for the disengaged who are leaning Lab.
At this stage, I still think we'll have a strong win for Starmer - all the available evidence points to this being the case - but I remain unconvinced by the Con ELE scenario.
When that bong goes at ten and we see the exit poll forecast translated into seats...its reliability this year is far from guaranteed.
Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.
Yet his opponents accuse him of being drugged up if he does well, so they win either way.
Trump rambles incoherently constantly but unfortunately none of his supporters care, so an unedifying encounter of two very old men past their prime looks likely. Only one cares about democracy though.
'Drugging up' someone with dementia would be highly unlikely to improve their debate performance.
And we know whose White House was an actual pill mill.
The allegation that he was on some kind of amphetamines for the State of the Union looks quite convincing to me - the sudden extraordinary improvement in lucidity and eloquence was striking, as was the massive relapse to his normal senility thereafter
Moreover they will want to avoid any “accidents”. A medically informed (and left wing) friend of mine recently gave me a plausible explanation for Biden’s weird behaviour on the White House lawn the other day. I’ll spare PB the unhappy details and precise medical words my friend used, but it all made sense
Also, how many octogenarians are NOT on multiple drugs? It’s normal. I am sure Trump is as well. He’s definitely been guzzling ozempic you can see it in his face
I hear before the big speeches debates they give him a really effective drug called SLIIP the night before but apparently it takes a few hours every night for the body to digest it fully so during busy schedules he is more prone to gaffes.
If we had any drugs that were able to reverse dementia like that I think that we would know about it and people like my MIL would be popping them daily.
The whole drugs story is a fantasy designed to explain what happened when GOP delusions hit the reality of an unitermediated Biden who is nothing like the picture the NYT and Fox try to paint every day. A similar discrepancy will occur at the debate tonight so the excuses are being made already.
Kevin Hollinrake, the business minister, has said he placed a bet on the Conservatives to win the election, but added that gambling on his constituency seat would be “wrong”.
Although Mr Hollinrake said he bet on the outcome of the General Election, he claimed he would not put a wager on the result of the Thirsk and Malton seat, where he is a candidate.
Asked whether he had bet on a Tory victory, Mr Hollinrake said: “Yes, I did. Not my seat, I think that would be wrong.”
Westminster has been engulfed by a gambling scandal with five Conservatives being investigated by the commission over alleged election bets.
He added: “This situation has definitely opened up a debate that we should have a proper debate about and decide whether it’s right or wrong that people have a bet on things they are involved in.”
The odds of the Conservative Party winning the election on July 4 are 125/1, according to Oddschecker, as the party trails Labour by around 20 points in the opinion polls.
have not we a LD candidate who has stated he has bet on his seat on this site? Personally I think this is all silly but if politics wants to go all puritanical about this then all major parties have dirt on their hands
Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.
Yet his opponents accuse him of being drugged up if he does well, so they win either way.
Trump rambles incoherently constantly but unfortunately none of his supporters care, so an unedifying encounter of two very old men past their prime looks likely. Only one cares about democracy though.
'Drugging up' someone with dementia would be highly unlikely to improve their debate performance.
And we know whose White House was an actual pill mill.
The allegation that he was on some kind of amphetamines for the State of the Union looks quite convincing to me - the sudden extraordinary improvement in lucidity and eloquence was striking, as was the massive relapse to his normal senility thereafter
Moreover they will want to avoid any “accidents”. A medically informed (and left wing) friend of mine recently gave me a plausible explanation for Biden’s weird behaviour on the White House lawn the other day. I’ll spare PB the unhappy details and precise medical words my friend used, but it all made sense
Also, how many octogenarians are NOT on multiple drugs? It’s normal. I am sure Trump is as well. He’s definitely been guzzling ozempic you can see it in his face
Amphetamines are not a treatment for dementia. Indeed they are likely to make it worse.
The only strong evidence we have for off label, unethical drug prescriptions in the White House is from the Trump administration. I don't count right wing TwitterX as evidence. Or your friends.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Completing a postal vote for someone else is a criminal offence.
He knows, he just wants the attention, as always.
And it worked. But also I am probably gonna do this to make the evening more exciting. Will I be arrested?
Almost certainly not, but do you fancy a couple of months in prison.
Could get a gazette diary piece out of it
What I might do is order her to instruct me to vote Reform on her behalf. She’s quite submissive
I understand this happens a lot in more traditional parts of London, already
That means I don’t break the law but I get the two votes
It is a postal vote, not a proxy vote so sorry you are still breaking the law and admitting it here. You can not be 'instructed' to fill in a postal vote on someone else's behalf (even though that happens).
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
Starmer and Streeting were in a GP surgery in NW Leics yesterday before the debate. 20 000 nominal Tory majority. Thats the lawn where he is parking his tanks.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
Isn't it actually an offence to complete, even if you have a verbal instruction from the person?
Kevin Hollinrake, the business minister, has said he placed a bet on the Conservatives to win the election, but added that gambling on his constituency seat would be “wrong”.
Although Mr Hollinrake said he bet on the outcome of the General Election, he claimed he would not put a wager on the result of the Thirsk and Malton seat, where he is a candidate.
Asked whether he had bet on a Tory victory, Mr Hollinrake said: “Yes, I did. Not my seat, I think that would be wrong.”
Westminster has been engulfed by a gambling scandal with five Conservatives being investigated by the commission over alleged election bets.
He added: “This situation has definitely opened up a debate that we should have a proper debate about and decide whether it’s right or wrong that people have a bet on things they are involved in.”
The odds of the Conservative Party winning the election on July 4 are 125/1, according to Oddschecker, as the party trails Labour by around 20 points in the opinion polls.
Seems a large number of seats for Reform. Can it be so?
It's total nonsense.
Electoral Calculus does have a habit of pumping out projections that simply don't pass the smell test. I was starting to think they'd improved at the beginning of this campaign, but we're back to the implausible ones.
If I'd coded a program with that sort of output, I would be putting in log statements all over the place to try and work out why it was coming up with something so obviously wrong. Reform are not winning North Cotswolds and the LibDems are not winning Cambridge.
On topic - Biden can't win the Presidential election tonight but he can definitively lose it, tot he point of being replaced as the Democratic candidate. He has so much more riding on this than Trump. I am very surprised he agreed to it. If he did, of course.
The Don will mess it up. Biden told him to shut up last time. Best to tell him to put a sock in it.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
Isn't it actually an offence to complete, even if you have a verbal instruction from the person?
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
Starmer and Streeting were in a GP surgery in NW Leics yesterday before the debate. 20 000 nominal Tory majority. Thats the lawn where he is parking his tanks.
is that Andrew Bridgens seat? If so they may think they can go through the middle as Bridgen and the Tories split the right
Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.
Yet his opponents accuse him of being drugged up if he does well, so they win either way.
Trump rambles incoherently constantly but unfortunately none of his supporters care, so an unedifying encounter of two very old men past their prime looks likely. Only one cares about democracy though.
'Drugging up' someone with dementia would be highly unlikely to improve their debate performance.
And we know whose White House was an actual pill mill.
The allegation that he was on some kind of amphetamines for the State of the Union looks quite convincing to me - the sudden extraordinary improvement in lucidity and eloquence was striking, as was the massive relapse to his normal senility thereafter
Moreover they will want to avoid any “accidents”. A medically informed (and left wing) friend of mine recently gave me a plausible explanation for Biden’s weird behaviour on the White House lawn the other day. I’ll spare PB the unhappy details and precise medical words my friend used, but it all made sense
Also, how many octogenarians are NOT on multiple drugs? It’s normal. I am sure Trump is as well. He’s definitely been guzzling ozempic you can see it in his face
I hear before the big speeches debates they give him a really effective drug called SLIIP the night before but apparently it takes a few hours every night for the body to digest it fully so during busy schedules he is more prone to gaffes.
Kevin Hollinrake, the business minister, has said he placed a bet on the Conservatives to win the election, but added that gambling on his constituency seat would be “wrong”.
Although Mr Hollinrake said he bet on the outcome of the General Election, he claimed he would not put a wager on the result of the Thirsk and Malton seat, where he is a candidate.
Asked whether he had bet on a Tory victory, Mr Hollinrake said: “Yes, I did. Not my seat, I think that would be wrong.”
Westminster has been engulfed by a gambling scandal with five Conservatives being investigated by the commission over alleged election bets.
He added: “This situation has definitely opened up a debate that we should have a proper debate about and decide whether it’s right or wrong that people have a bet on things they are involved in.”
The odds of the Conservative Party winning the election on July 4 are 125/1, according to Oddschecker, as the party trails Labour by around 20 points in the opinion polls.
I'm not sure I think he's done anything wrong here tbh (apart from placing an atrocious bet).
Did Ivan Toney do anything wrong backing Brentford to win when he was playing? (He also bet his own teams to lose, but only when he was out injured....)
Toney has a much more significant role in influencing the outcome, as well as potentially having insider knowledge in a betting scenario which is much more controllable than the outcome of a general election. In any case, the FA has regulations about footballers betting on football.
Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.
Yet his opponents accuse him of being drugged up if he does well, so they win either way.
Trump rambles incoherently constantly but unfortunately none of his supporters care, so an unedifying encounter of two very old men past their prime looks likely. Only one cares about democracy though.
'Drugging up' someone with dementia would be highly unlikely to improve their debate performance.
And we know whose White House was an actual pill mill.
The allegation that he was on some kind of amphetamines for the State of the Union looks quite convincing to me - the sudden extraordinary improvement in lucidity and eloquence was striking, as was the massive relapse to his normal senility thereafter
Moreover they will want to avoid any “accidents”. A medically informed (and left wing) friend of mine recently gave me a plausible explanation for Biden’s weird behaviour on the White House lawn the other day. I’ll spare PB the unhappy details and precise medical words my friend used, but it all made sense
Also, how many octogenarians are NOT on multiple drugs? It’s normal. I am sure Trump is as well. He’s definitely been guzzling ozempic you can see it in his face
I hear before the big speeches debates they give him a really effective drug called SLIIP the night before but apparently it takes a few hours every night for the body to digest it fully so during busy schedules he is more prone to gaffes.
If we had any drugs that were able to reverse dementia like that I think that we would know about it and people like my MIL would be popping them daily.
The whole drugs story is a fantasy designed to explain what happened when GOP delusions hit the reality of an unitermediated Biden who is nothing like the picture the NYT and Fox try to paint every day. A similar discrepancy will occur at the debate tonight so the excuses are being made already.
Maybe it was all a dream.
I’ve just had my breakfast. Trump coming out of the shower is not an image I want.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Completing a postal vote for someone else is a criminal offence.
He knows, he just wants the attention, as always.
And it worked. But also I am probably gonna do this to make the evening more exciting. Will I be arrested?
Your development seems to have been arrested at the just past toddler stage?
That's not fair.
Many toddlers have better impulse control than @SeanT
Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.
Yet his opponents accuse him of being drugged up if he does well, so they win either way.
Trump rambles incoherently constantly but unfortunately none of his supporters care, so an unedifying encounter of two very old men past their prime looks likely. Only one cares about democracy though.
'Drugging up' someone with dementia would be highly unlikely to improve their debate performance.
And we know whose White House was an actual pill mill.
The allegation that he was on some kind of amphetamines for the State of the Union looks quite convincing to me - the sudden extraordinary improvement in lucidity and eloquence was striking, as was the massive relapse to his normal senility thereafter
Moreover they will want to avoid any “accidents”. A medically informed (and left wing) friend of mine recently gave me a plausible explanation for Biden’s weird behaviour on the White House lawn the other day. I’ll spare PB the unhappy details and precise medical words my friend used, but it all made sense
Also, how many octogenarians are NOT on multiple drugs? It’s normal. I am sure Trump is as well. He’s definitely been guzzling ozempic you can see it in his face
Amphetamines are not a treatment for dementia. Indeed they are likely to make it worse.
The only strong evidence we have for off label, unethical drug prescriptions in the White House is from the Trump administration. I don't count right wing TwitterX as evidence. Or your friends.
I was using “amphetamines” in the broadly accepted medical sense of “many different kinds of drugs some of them not actually amphetamines”
They could have jacked him up with this
“The following are used to temporarily improve dementia symptoms. Cholinesterase inhibitors. These medicines work by boosting levels of a chemical messenger involved in memory and judgment. They include donepezil (Aricept, Adlarity), rivastigmine (Exelon) and galantamine (Razadyne ER)”
There is a man on the train with hair just like Nick Cave eating a Tesco ham and cheddar sandwich. That is not appropriate food at 9.04am.
Not that far off e.g. a German breakfast*. Although the ingredients' quality might be lacking in comparison
*I very much enjoy the breads, meats, cheeses etc at breakfast when staying in Germany, but never feel the desire to replicate it at home, which is a bit odd when I think about it
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Completing a postal vote for someone else is a criminal offence.
He knows, he just wants the attention, as always.
And it worked. But also I am probably gonna do this to make the evening more exciting. Will I be arrested?
Do enterprising investigative journalists read PB ? Probably not.
After last night's revelation of Sir Philip betting against himself to the tune of £8k, one of his "supporters" round our way has relocated their garden sign into their wheelie bin.
Er excuse me. But you seem to have suddenly changed your methedology. Only a couple of days ago you were arguing that it was only 8 days to go because you don't count the day that has already started nor the actual day of the vote.
So now you are claiming it is 1 week to go when by your own methedology it should only be 6 days.
I don't mind which way you count it but if you are going to criticise others and make snide remarks at least be consistent in your own methedology.
The use of cash encourages the exercise of maths skills so they don't atrophy
Lord Ashcrofts latest (non BPC) poll this week is Lab 40 (-3) Con 19 (+1) Ref 17 (-1) LD 10 (+1) Don't know the rest of the figs, sorry, all, on his Web lordashcroftpolls.com
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
This election, more than most, is sui generis. Comparing it to others is not illuminating.
True. The factors which make it so are interesting. There can never have been an election in modern times in which the Overton window is so narrow - there are no principled ideological divides between C, Lab and LD - and at the same time no belief in the power of the offered solutions. Also little belief in the capacity of competence either to emerge or to make a lot of difference.
It's as if we are waiting for an Attlee or a Thatcher and can't decide which, and anyway neither are available.
FWIW the best possible option to hope for now is leadership that can lead as if the glass is half full instead of half empty. When your party has run things for 14 years, it can't be them.
Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.
Yet his opponents accuse him of being drugged up if he does well, so they win either way.
Trump rambles incoherently constantly but unfortunately none of his supporters care, so an unedifying encounter of two very old men past their prime looks likely. Only one cares about democracy though.
'Drugging up' someone with dementia would be highly unlikely to improve their debate performance.
And we know whose White House was an actual pill mill.
The allegation that he was on some kind of amphetamines for the State of the Union looks quite convincing to me - the sudden extraordinary improvement in lucidity and eloquence was striking, as was the massive relapse to his normal senility thereafter
Moreover they will want to avoid any “accidents”. A medically informed (and left wing) friend of mine recently gave me a plausible explanation for Biden’s weird behaviour on the White House lawn the other day. I’ll spare PB the unhappy details and precise medical words my friend used, but it all made sense
Also, how many octogenarians are NOT on multiple drugs? It’s normal. I am sure Trump is as well. He’s definitely been guzzling ozempic you can see it in his face
Amphetamines are not a treatment for dementia. Indeed they are likely to make it worse.
The only strong evidence we have for off label, unethical drug prescriptions in the White House is from the Trump administration. I don't count right wing TwitterX as evidence. Or your friends.
I was using “amphetamines” in the broadly accepted medical sense of “many different kinds of drugs some of them not actually amphetamines”
They could have jacked him up with this
“The following are used to temporarily improve dementia symptoms. Cholinesterase inhibitors. These medicines work by boosting levels of a chemical messenger involved in memory and judgment. They include donepezil (Aricept, Adlarity), rivastigmine (Exelon) and galantamine (Razadyne ER)”
So, you're clueless, and you can use google. Got that.
It's rare that different parts of the political spectrum come together in agreement on something, but it seems everyone thinks the BBC were out of order letting this question get asked last night:
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
Isn't it actually an offence to complete, even if you have a verbal instruction from the person?
There’s a distinction between a postal vote and a proxy vote.
That I know. A proxy vote is specifically for a certain purpose.
I seem to recall that a postal vote can't be filled in by anyone else, even if the person whose vote it is, is directly instructing you. Is that right?
Kevin Hollinrake, the business minister, has said he placed a bet on the Conservatives to win the election, but added that gambling on his constituency seat would be “wrong”.
Although Mr Hollinrake said he bet on the outcome of the General Election, he claimed he would not put a wager on the result of the Thirsk and Malton seat, where he is a candidate.
Asked whether he had bet on a Tory victory, Mr Hollinrake said: “Yes, I did. Not my seat, I think that would be wrong.”
Westminster has been engulfed by a gambling scandal with five Conservatives being investigated by the commission over alleged election bets.
He added: “This situation has definitely opened up a debate that we should have a proper debate about and decide whether it’s right or wrong that people have a bet on things they are involved in.”
The odds of the Conservative Party winning the election on July 4 are 125/1, according to Oddschecker, as the party trails Labour by around 20 points in the opinion polls.
I'm not sure I think he's done anything wrong here tbh (apart from placing an atrocious bet).
Yeah, it's pretty shocking from 'the business minister'. He clearly doesn't understand the concept of profit and loss and return on investment.
Or are the Tories value losers?
TBH I imagine he is not a regular bettor, and placed it in the same way a lot of casuals stick a fiver on England. But agreed, it is not a good look for a business minister.
Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.
Yet his opponents accuse him of being drugged up if he does well, so they win either way.
Trump rambles incoherently constantly but unfortunately none of his supporters care, so an unedifying encounter of two very old men past their prime looks likely. Only one cares about democracy though.
'Drugging up' someone with dementia would be highly unlikely to improve their debate performance.
And we know whose White House was an actual pill mill.
The allegation that he was on some kind of amphetamines for the State of the Union looks quite convincing to me - the sudden extraordinary improvement in lucidity and eloquence was striking, as was the massive relapse to his normal senility thereafter
Moreover they will want to avoid any “accidents”. A medically informed (and left wing) friend of mine recently gave me a plausible explanation for Biden’s weird behaviour on the White House lawn the other day. I’ll spare PB the unhappy details and precise medical words my friend used, but it all made sense
Also, how many octogenarians are NOT on multiple drugs? It’s normal. I am sure Trump is as well. He’s definitely been guzzling ozempic you can see it in his face
I hear before the big speeches debates they give him a really effective drug called SLIIP the night before but apparently it takes a few hours every night for the body to digest it fully so during busy schedules he is more prone to gaffes.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
Isn't it actually an offence to complete, even if you have a verbal instruction from the person?
Yes. See my and @TheScreamingEagles post. @leon posting on a subject he has no knowledge as usual. I mean on a site full of people who are experts on elections. How many ex Agents are here. Lots I expect.
On topic - Biden can't win the Presidential election tonight but he can definitively lose it, tot he point of being replaced as the Democratic candidate. He has so much more riding on this than Trump. I am very surprised he agreed to it. If he did, of course.
It's a pretty high stakes debate for both of them. I don't think either could realistically avoid debating, at least once.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
Isn't it actually an offence to complete, even if you have a verbal instruction from the person?
There’s a distinction between a postal vote and a proxy vote.
That I know. A proxy vote is specifically for a certain purpose.
I seem to recall that a postal vote can't be filled in by anyone else, even if the person whose vote it is, is directly instructing you. Is that right?
Well, it* has to be signed, for one thing. (BTW very odd para in here about being a political campaigner.)
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Completing a postal vote for someone else is a criminal offence.
He knows, he just wants the attention, as always.
And it worked. But also I am probably gonna do this to make the evening more exciting. Will I be arrested?
Do enterprising investigative journalists read PB ? Probably not.
Well, PB is read by a lot of people in politics. So journalists, yes.
Our friend doxxes himself about once a week.
So you have our friend's name. Figuring out the name of the person whose vote it is, is an exercise in Googling. So you have the vote and the person playing games with it. One phone call later, you've created a story to write about. Maybe several - on the subject of postal votes and fraud.
There is a man on the train with hair just like Nick Cave eating a Tesco ham and cheddar sandwich. That is not appropriate food at 9.04am.
Not that far off e.g. a German breakfast*. Although the ingredients' quality might be lacking in comparison
*I very much enjoy the breads, meats, cheeses etc at breakfast when staying in Germany, but never feel the desire to replicate it at home, which is a bit odd when I think about it
The ingredients are fine in theory. But sandwiches from the lunch meal deal counter are not appropriate. For the same reason bacon and eggs is breakfast but quiche Lorraine isn’t.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
Starmer and Streeting were in a GP surgery in NW Leics yesterday before the debate. 20 000 nominal Tory majority. Thats the lawn where he is parking his tanks.
is that Andrew Bridgens seat? If so they may think they can go through the middle as Bridgen and the Tories split the right
Yes. I have it as a pretty nailed on piece of Starmerland.
Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.
Yet his opponents accuse him of being drugged up if he does well, so they win either way.
Trump rambles incoherently constantly but unfortunately none of his supporters care, so an unedifying encounter of two very old men past their prime looks likely. Only one cares about democracy though.
'Drugging up' someone with dementia would be highly unlikely to improve their debate performance.
And we know whose White House was an actual pill mill.
The allegation that he was on some kind of amphetamines for the State of the Union looks quite convincing to me - the sudden extraordinary improvement in lucidity and eloquence was striking, as was the massive relapse to his normal senility thereafter
Moreover they will want to avoid any “accidents”. A medically informed (and left wing) friend of mine recently gave me a plausible explanation for Biden’s weird behaviour on the White House lawn the other day. I’ll spare PB the unhappy details and precise medical words my friend used, but it all made sense
Also, how many octogenarians are NOT on multiple drugs? It’s normal. I am sure Trump is as well. He’s definitely been guzzling ozempic you can see it in his face
Amphetamines are not a treatment for dementia. Indeed they are likely to make it worse.
The only strong evidence we have for off label, unethical drug prescriptions in the White House is from the Trump administration. I don't count right wing TwitterX as evidence. Or your friends.
I was using “amphetamines” in the broadly accepted medical sense of “many different kinds of drugs some of them not actually amphetamines”
They could have jacked him up with this
“The following are used to temporarily improve dementia symptoms. Cholinesterase inhibitors. These medicines work by boosting levels of a chemical messenger involved in memory and judgment. They include donepezil (Aricept, Adlarity), rivastigmine (Exelon) and galantamine (Razadyne ER)”
So, you're clueless, and you can use google. Got that.
Is there a total sense of humour failure on PB this morning? Jeeez
Cheer up. I’m on a boat going to a mystical island. This is the final ultimate incredible life-changing culmination of a long-held dream that I’ve nurtured for literally days, ever since I first beheld the Ile De Sein from the sun-burnt rocks of Pointe de Rez well over a fortnight ago
Finally, I’m here. After all that yearning. Minute after minute of staring at atlases, tracing the outline of this fabled island then getting bored and doing something else. Entire moments of thinking about it vaguely then thinking about the next place I can have oysters
At last. The time has come and the dreams that I never really had are fulfilled
Lord Ashcrofts latest (non BPC) poll this week is Lab 40 (-3) Con 19 (+1) Ref 17 (-1) LD 10 (+1) Don't know the rest of the figs, sorry, all, on his Web lordashcroftpolls.com
Chunky drop for Labour there and more stalling for Reform
I am convinced that if Farage hadn’t dropped his Putin-bollock Reform would have overtaken the Tories and destroyed them forever. Now I expect the Tories to edge back to 25ish and reform to fall to 15ish
Still horrific for the Tories but sadly not terminal
There is a man on the train with hair just like Nick Cave eating a Tesco ham and cheddar sandwich. That is not appropriate food at 9.04am.
Not that far off e.g. a German breakfast*. Although the ingredients' quality might be lacking in comparison
*I very much enjoy the breads, meats, cheeses etc at breakfast when staying in Germany, but never feel the desire to replicate it at home, which is a bit odd when I think about it
The ingredients are fine in theory. But sandwiches from the lunch meal deal counter are not appropriate. For the same reason bacon and eggs is breakfast but quiche Lorraine isn’t.
Especially when you have a Nick cave haircut.
Yeah, the haircut is hard enough to pull off (unless you are Nick Cave) without adding more dubious choices!
ETA: And the ingredients: for breakfast, wrong bread, wrong meat, wrong cheese, but otherwise all good
Seems a large number of seats for Reform. Can it be so?
It's total nonsense.
Electoral Calculus does have a habit of pumping out projections that simply don't pass the smell test. I was starting to think they'd improved at the beginning of this campaign, but we're back to the implausible ones.
If I'd coded a program with that sort of output, I would be putting in log statements all over the place to try and work out why it was coming up with something so obviously wrong. Reform are not winning North Cotswolds and the LibDems are not winning Cambridge.
EC does seem bonkers really. A range of 9-99 and prediction of 19 for Reform appears (but we shall all be proved wrong about something in 7 sleeps and 13 days time) both wrong and singularly useless. (Tho EC provides a useful service in all sorts of ways).
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
Isn't it actually an offence to complete, even if you have a verbal instruction from the person?
Yes. See my and @TheScreamingEagles post. @leon posting on a subject he has no knowledge as usual. I mean on a site full of people who are experts on elections. How many ex Agents are here. Lots I expect.
There is a man on the train with hair just like Nick Cave eating a Tesco ham and cheddar sandwich. That is not appropriate food at 9.04am.
Not that far off e.g. a German breakfast*. Although the ingredients' quality might be lacking in comparison
*I very much enjoy the breads, meats, cheeses etc at breakfast when staying in Germany, but never feel the desire to replicate it at home, which is a bit odd when I think about it
The ingredients are fine in theory. But sandwiches from the lunch meal deal counter are not appropriate. For the same reason bacon and eggs is breakfast but quiche Lorraine isn’t.
Especially when you have a Nick cave haircut.
When in France the other week, had quiche for breakfast on one occasion. Fresh from the good boulangerie in Chablis.
My GE vote share predictions, central position*: Labour 40% Tories 26% LibDems 12% Reform 11% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 2% * 2% +/- each way
Yep, id go along with that, that looks like how it all feels if you get my drift
Yes I agree too
Looks like LAB 400 CON 150 LD 50 others 50 on that basis. LAB loving the big majority. CON loving survival -level result. LD loving return to 3rd place see you later SNP
Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.
Yet his opponents accuse him of being drugged up if he does well, so they win either way.
Trump rambles incoherently constantly but unfortunately none of his supporters care, so an unedifying encounter of two very old men past their prime looks likely. Only one cares about democracy though.
'Drugging up' someone with dementia would be highly unlikely to improve their debate performance.
And we know whose White House was an actual pill mill.
The allegation that he was on some kind of amphetamines for the State of the Union looks quite convincing to me - the sudden extraordinary improvement in lucidity and eloquence was striking, as was the massive relapse to his normal senility thereafter
Moreover they will want to avoid any “accidents”. A medically informed (and left wing) friend of mine recently gave me a plausible explanation for Biden’s weird behaviour on the White House lawn the other day. I’ll spare PB the unhappy details and precise medical words my friend used, but it all made sense
Also, how many octogenarians are NOT on multiple drugs? It’s normal. I am sure Trump is as well. He’s definitely been guzzling ozempic you can see it in his face
I hear before the big speeches debates they give him a really effective drug called SLIIP the night before but apparently it takes a few hours every night for the body to digest it fully so during busy schedules he is more prone to gaffes.
There is a man on the train with hair just like Nick Cave eating a Tesco ham and cheddar sandwich. That is not appropriate food at 9.04am.
Not that far off e.g. a German breakfast*. Although the ingredients' quality might be lacking in comparison
*I very much enjoy the breads, meats, cheeses etc at breakfast when staying in Germany, but never feel the desire to replicate it at home, which is a bit odd when I think about it
The ingredients are fine in theory. But sandwiches from the lunch meal deal counter are not appropriate. For the same reason bacon and eggs is breakfast but quiche Lorraine isn’t.
Especially when you have a Nick cave haircut.
When in France the other week, had quiche for breakfast on one occasion. Fresh from the good boulangerie in Chablis.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
Isn't it actually an offence to complete, even if you have a verbal instruction from the person?
Yes. See my and @TheScreamingEagles post. @leon posting on a subject he has no knowledge as usual. I mean on a site full of people who are experts on elections. How many ex Agents are here. Lots I expect.
A question to ask about the above would be about how an ex wife who doesn't care is registered to vote anyway?
Lord Ashcrofts latest (non BPC) poll this week is Lab 40 (-3) Con 19 (+1) Ref 17 (-1) LD 10 (+1) Don't know the rest of the figs, sorry, all, on his Web lordashcroftpolls.com
Chunky drop for Labour there and more stalling for Reform
I am convinced that if Farage hadn’t dropped his Putin-bollock Reform would have overtaken the Tories and destroyed them forever. Now I expect the Tories to edge back to 25ish and reform to fall to 15ish
Still horrific for the Tories but sadly not terminal
When the election was called I was hoping for a small Labour majority but that seems extremely unlikely now. Next best would therefore be a reduction in Tory seats to the point where they migh suffer a sea change into something rich and strange.
That's not looking likely either. Looks like about 100 seats - too small to be a useful Opposition, too big to precipitate a rebirth.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
Isn't it actually an offence to complete, even if you have a verbal instruction from the person?
Yes. See my and @TheScreamingEagles post. @leon posting on a subject he has no knowledge as usual. I mean on a site full of people who are experts on elections. How many ex Agents are here. Lots I expect.
ITS. A. JOKE
Omg
I do know that. I know you are just winding us up.
Interested to know if you knew though that you couldn't do it if instructed to do so? Also interested to know if you know it is easy to check if you have done it, although it takes a court order.
So if you did do it and write an article the authorities might consider it worth checking because it was publicised and you wouldn't get away with saying it was a joke when they pull the ballot paper out.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Completing a postal vote for someone else is a criminal offence.
He knows, he just wants the attention, as always.
And it worked. But also I am probably gonna do this to make the evening more exciting. Will I be arrested?
Do enterprising investigative journalists read PB ? Probably not.
Well, PB is read by a lot of people in politics. So journalists, yes.
Our friend doxxes himself about once a week.
So you have our friend's name. Figuring out the name of the person whose vote it is, is an exercise in Googling. So you have the vote and the person playing games with it. One phone call later, you've created a story to write about. Maybe several - on the subject of postal votes and fraud.
The Site is widely read by journalists, I promise you.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
What are you gonna do big boy, get the gendarmes on me on Ushant?
No, nothing like that, I don't go around reporting possibly fictitious crimes by random people on the internet. I just mention it because it's the classic dumb voting crime that people do actually occasionally commit and get caught for.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
Isn't it actually an offence to complete, even if you have a verbal instruction from the person?
Yes. See my and @TheScreamingEagles post. @leon posting on a subject he has no knowledge as usual. I mean on a site full of people who are experts on elections. How many ex Agents are here. Lots I expect.
A question to ask about the above would be about how an ex wife who doesn't care is registered to vote anyway?
Oh good point. Crime already committed even without voting.
Still @Leon's wind up providing good entertainment this morning
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
What are you gonna do big boy, get the gendarmes on me on Ushant?
No, nothing like that, I don't go around reporting possibly fictitious crimes by random people on the internet. I just mention it because it's the classic dumb voting crime that people do actually occasionally commit and get caught for.
Usually when they cross-check the sig on the form with the sig on the original PV application. Any that don't match are set aside for potential investigation.
But in this case it's just a twat seeking some attention.
Lord Ashcrofts latest (non BPC) poll this week is Lab 40 (-3) Con 19 (+1) Ref 17 (-1) LD 10 (+1) Don't know the rest of the figs, sorry, all, on his Web lordashcroftpolls.com
Chunky drop for Labour there and more stalling for Reform
I am convinced that if Farage hadn’t dropped his Putin-bollock Reform would have overtaken the Tories and destroyed them forever. Now I expect the Tories to edge back to 25ish and reform to fall to 15ish
Still horrific for the Tories but sadly not terminal
When the election was called I was hoping for a small Labour majority but that seems extremely unlikely now. Next best would therefore be a reduction in Tory seats to the point where they migh suffer a sea change into something rich and strange.
That's not looking likely either. Looks like about 100 seats - too small to be a useful Opposition, too big to precipitate a rebirth.
Sigh.
Perhaps much discussion has blinded us. It is quite possible that the generally unthinkable reality of 'Tories 100 seats, Labour well over 400' will come as a giant surprise to the UK as a whole, most of whom spend no time thinking about this and may assume the result will be close to the usual sort of turn taking.
I think Tories getting 100 seats would be epoch making, and give a chance for sanity to return. But 50 would be better.
Er excuse me. But you seem to have suddenly changed your methedology. Only a couple of days ago you were arguing that it was only 8 days to go because you don't count the day that has already started nor the actual day of the vote.
So now you are claiming it is 1 week to go when by your own methedology it should only be 6 days.
I don't mind which way you count it but if you are going to criticise others and make snide remarks at least be consistent in your own methedology.
The use of cash encourages the exercise of maths skills so they don't atrophy
Comments
Although Mr Hollinrake said he bet on the outcome of the General Election, he claimed he would not put a wager on the result of the Thirsk and Malton seat, where he is a candidate.
Asked whether he had bet on a Tory victory, Mr Hollinrake said: “Yes, I did. Not my seat, I think that would be wrong.”
Westminster has been engulfed by a gambling scandal with five Conservatives being investigated by the commission over alleged election bets.
He added: “This situation has definitely opened up a debate that we should have a proper debate about and decide whether it’s right or wrong that people have a bet on things they are involved in.”
The odds of the Conservative Party winning the election on July 4 are 125/1, according to Oddschecker, as the party trails Labour by around 20 points in the opinion polls.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/
Governments around the world have struggled. The Tories obviously but also Macron, the German government, and many others.
In the US Biden, who has arguably done the best economically, is struggling against a convicted felon, an abuser of women and a dishonest businessman. Fighting that tide is hard.
In the UK the Tories have aggravated the situation with idiotic policies like Rwanda, cancelling HS2 , failing to deliver on levelling up, focusing on sleight of hand claiming tax cuts when the tax burden is steadily rising and not doing nearly enough to improve the efficiency of a public sector totally focused on the welfare of those working in it rather than those they are supposed to be helping.
They deserve all they are going to get. But I wouldn’t be writing off the Tories in the future. The challenges facing Starmer and Reeves are immense and real and those claiming public services have been drained by nothing more than Tory wickedness are in for a shock.
Something to quote next time someone whines about Just Stop Oil.
Labour 40%
Tories 26%
LibDems 12%
Reform 11%
Greens 6%
SNP 3%
Others 2%
* 2% +/- each way
What I might do is order her to instruct me to vote Reform on her behalf. She’s quite submissive
I understand this happens a lot in more traditional parts of London, already
That means I don’t break the law but I get the two votes
Sinn Fein are 8/15 with the bookies here . Normally this seat is won in the most marginal way as the unionists only fielded one serious candidate last time to not split the vote . This time it looks like both unionist parties contesting ? Maybe reading this wrong but seems like a Sinn Fein cert (much more so than 8/15) if so
The whole drugs story is a fantasy designed to explain what happened when GOP delusions hit the reality of an unitermediated Biden who is nothing like the picture the NYT and Fox try to paint every day. A similar discrepancy will occur at the debate tonight so the excuses are being made already.
Ladbrokes login working again with Firefox. Huzzah!
Indeed they are likely to make it worse.
The only strong evidence we have for off label, unethical drug prescriptions in the White House is from the Trump administration.
I don't count right wing TwitterX as evidence. Or your friends.
And the punishment is almost certainly prison.
@PBLawyers?
Or are the Tories value losers?
If I'd coded a program with that sort of output, I would be putting in log statements all over the place to try and work out why it was coming up with something so obviously wrong. Reform are not winning North Cotswolds and the LibDems are not winning Cambridge.
...
What is this "really effective" drug ?
Many toddlers have better impulse control than @SeanT
They could have jacked him up with this
“The following are used to temporarily improve dementia symptoms. Cholinesterase inhibitors. These medicines work by boosting levels of a chemical messenger involved in memory and judgment. They include donepezil (Aricept, Adlarity), rivastigmine (Exelon) and galantamine (Razadyne ER)”
*I very much enjoy the breads, meats, cheeses etc at breakfast when staying in Germany, but never feel the desire to replicate it at home, which is a bit odd when I think about it
Probably not.
Lab 40 (-3)
Con 19 (+1)
Ref 17 (-1)
LD 10 (+1)
Don't know the rest of the figs, sorry, all, on his Web lordashcroftpolls.com
It's as if we are waiting for an Attlee or a Thatcher and can't decide which, and anyway neither are available.
FWIW the best possible option to hope for now is leadership that can lead as if the glass is half full instead of half empty. When your party has run things for 14 years, it can't be them.
Got that.
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1806069761849295228
Sunak v Starmer is a lot better than Johnson v Corbyn.
I seem to recall that a postal vote can't be filled in by anyone else, even if the person whose vote it is, is directly instructing you. Is that right?
SLIIP = sleep.
I don't think either could realistically avoid debating, at least once.
https://www.gov.uk/how-to-vote/postal-voting
* PS more specifically, the covering statement. Not the ballot paper.
Our friend doxxes himself about once a week.
So you have our friend's name. Figuring out the name of the person whose vote it is, is an exercise in Googling. So you have the vote and the person playing games with it. One phone call later, you've created a story to write about. Maybe several - on the subject of postal votes and fraud.
Especially when you have a Nick cave haircut.
Cheer up. I’m on a boat going to a mystical island. This is the final ultimate incredible life-changing culmination of a long-held dream that I’ve nurtured
for literally days, ever since I first beheld the Ile De Sein from the sun-burnt rocks of Pointe de Rez well over a fortnight ago
Finally, I’m here. After all that yearning. Minute after minute of staring at atlases, tracing the outline of this fabled island then getting bored and doing something else. Entire moments of thinking about it vaguely then thinking about the next place I can have oysters
At last. The time has come and the dreams that I never really had are fulfilled
I am convinced that if Farage hadn’t dropped his Putin-bollock Reform would have overtaken the Tories and destroyed them forever. Now I expect the Tories to edge back to 25ish and reform to fall to 15ish
Still horrific for the Tories but sadly not terminal
ETA: And the ingredients: for breakfast, wrong bread, wrong meat, wrong cheese, but otherwise all good
Omg
https://maps.app.goo.gl/w7nggLzYQXZbnPTC9
Looks like LAB 400 CON 150 LD 50 others 50 on that basis. LAB loving the big majority. CON loving survival -level result. LD loving return to 3rd place see you later SNP
Reminds me of the thebacon xkcd
That's not looking likely either. Looks like about 100 seats - too small to be a useful Opposition, too big to precipitate a rebirth.
Sigh.
Interested to know if you knew though that you couldn't do it if instructed to do so? Also interested to know if you know it is easy to check if you have done it, although it takes a court order.
So if you did do it and write an article the authorities might consider it worth checking because it was publicised and you wouldn't get away with saying it was a joke when they pull the ballot paper out.
https://x.com/MatthewDorrance/status/1804038010041667861
Perhaps what they deserve
Still @Leon's wind up providing good entertainment this morning
But in this case it's just a twat seeking some attention.
I think Tories getting 100 seats would be epoch making, and give a chance for sanity to return. But 50 would be better.