What’s this market going to look like tomorrow morning? – politicalbetting.com

Gallowgate said:

Last week of this Tory government? 🌶️🌶️🔥🔥😎👌

Less than 200 hours to go.

Gallowgate said:

Last week of this Tory government? 🌶️🌶️🔥🔥😎👌

Thats what everyone thought in 1992 and 2015.

Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.

O/T but from the regular English Heritage mailing - they are flagging up the engineers (inter alii), John Smeaton, and the early women engineers. Some surprises, too.

https://heritagecalling.com/2024/06/06/the-life-and-work-of-john-smeaton-the-father-of-civil-engineering/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=brand

https://heritagecalling.com/2023/06/22/6-inspirational-women-engineers-from-history/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=brand

Normally after a debate both sides declare their guy the winner. The difference with this one is that the Democrat side will be connected enough to reality to talk about both candidates being far too old, and so that evenhandedness will push sentiment against Biden in terms of the immediate post-Debate reaction.

What the American voters will make of it, I wouldn't have a clue.

Labour has secured the backing of the cream of the cultural world, who have entered the election campaign with a call to end the “political chaos of recent years”.

Leading actors, artists and directors from Bill Nighy to Grayson Perry have signed up to Labour’s pledges and its manifesto promise of a “creative education for every child”.

The signatories said in the letter, published in The Times on Thursday, that they believed “our country needs change”.

In words echoing the “Luvvies for Labour” movement at the dawn of the Tony Blair era, the signatories said a Sir Keir Starmer administration would work with both commercial and not-for-profit sectors to help the nation’s £120 billion creative industries sector “lead the world”.

They said every part of the creative industries sector from advertising to video games would “benefit …. from a Labour government”.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/luvvies-for-labour-again-as-arts-stars-sign-letter-backing-starmer-rzrj95jn6

The CNN vs YouTube debate is still going on in the background, with the broadcaster still threatening automated DCMA takedown requests to anyone running a live commentary that includes their stream. Streaming the event with one’s own commentary is standard practice for events like this, and clearly falls under what Americans call the ‘fair use’ exemption to copyright law.

The problem is that the process is automated at YouTube’s end, so the streams will get nixed and the offenders banned from streaming for a week. Many commentators have decided to either host elsewhere (Twitter, Rumble, their own websites), or to see what happens, and possibly make the news tomorrow about CNN being dicks and the old media dying, rather than what happened at the debate.

LostPassword said:

Normally after a debate both sides declare their guy the winner. The difference with this one is that the Democrat side will be connected enough to reality to talk about both candidates being far too old, and so that evenhandedness will push sentiment against Biden in terms of the immediate post-Debate reaction.

What the American voters will make of it, I wouldn't have a clue.

"Just because Alfred is getting a bit old to run the Batcave doesn't mean you hand it over to the Joker."

TimS said:

not_on_fire said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Gallowgate said:

Last week of this Tory government? 🌶️🌶️🔥🔥😎👌

Thats what everyone thought in 1992 and 2015.

Must have been around this point that the EdStone started to be chiselled...

Seriously, whilst clearly nobody’s expecting a Tory victory, both this site and the media (and local by-elections) keep finding people who, reluctant though they may claim to be, are going to end up voting Conservative after all. The @Big_G_NorthWales effect.

If this election ends up being much closer than predicted then we can thank BigG for the insight he gave us into this phenomenon at an early stage.

Jonathan warned us about the shambling blue hordes heading to the polling booth to place their customary X against the Tory candidate before BigG shuffled back into the Tory fold.

I'm still waiting for the "A" to fall out of a display announcing "Rishi Sunak" behind him at a press conference.

Refom 50/1 overall majority.
Conservative 66/1 overal majority.

-Ladbrokes.

Not what you expect to see.

SMukesh said:

Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.

What if he exceeds expectations and does ok?

He doesn't even have to do brilliantly. Sure, he'll probably mince his words at some point or say something nonsensical (which will make the clip on TikTok) but all he has to do is look more level-headed than Trump and he's there.

FPT

Anabobazina said:

Good morning.

Exactly one week to go.

Or two months, if you are @Big_G_NorthWales @BartholomewRoberts or LauraK.

Er excuse me. But you seem to have suddenly changed your methedology. Only a couple of days ago you were arguing that it was only 8 days to go because you don't count the day that has already started nor the actual day of the vote.

So now you are claiming it is 1 week to go when by your own methedology it should only be 6 days.

I don't mind which way you count it but if you are going to criticise others and make snide remarks at least be consistent in your own methedology.

MisterBedfordshire said:

Refom 50/1 overall majority.
Conservative 66/1 overal majority.

-Ladbrokes.

Not what you expect to see.

Both are priced way too likely. I would have put the Tory chances at 500/1 and Reform at 1000/1

MattW said:

Carnyx said:

O/T but from the regular English Heritage mailing - they are flagging up the engineers (inter alii), John Smeaton, and the early women engineers. Some surprises, too.

https://heritagecalling.com/2024/06/06/the-life-and-work-of-john-smeaton-the-father-of-civil-engineering/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=brand

https://heritagecalling.com/2023/06/22/6-inspirational-women-engineers-from-history/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=brand

How do you rate EH compared to NT?

Not a NT member myself (but NTS, yes), so outwith my expertise to comment (shocking as that is on PB). Very different organizations in terms of their remits, obviously: roughly, with grey areas such as archaeology of farmland, EH are a government agency charged with the built heritage alone, and have statutory duties; NT also deals with landscape.

Edit: for instance EH have the records duty, which is reflected in their mailings (e.g. photographs of old sites).

Cookie said:

Foxy said:

When you look at our piss-poor choices on offer for next week a glance across the pond is a useful tonic. Things could be worse...

You don't even have to look across the Pond. Across the Channel will do.

Valid point.

I see the government polling in ROK ain't great either.

https://x.com/AsiaElects/status/1806152313045930212?t=J89dUrzjUyoOFufMspapbA&s=19

SMukesh said:

Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.

And you think Trump will?

MisterBedfordshire said:

This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.

This election, more than most, is sui generis. Comparing it to others is not illuminating.

Carnyx said:

O/T but from the regular English Heritage mailing - they are flagging up the engineers (inter alii), John Smeaton, and the early women engineers. Some surprises, too.

https://heritagecalling.com/2024/06/06/the-life-and-work-of-john-smeaton-the-father-of-civil-engineering/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=brand

https://heritagecalling.com/2023/06/22/6-inspirational-women-engineers-from-history/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=brand

An excuse to rewatch the American advert from Verizon (the main US mobile phone company) about girls and STEM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yND9hDpPwYA

Casino_Royale said:

SMukesh said:

Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.

What if he exceeds expectations and does ok?

He doesn't even have to do brilliantly. Sure, he'll probably mince his words at some point or say something nonsensical (which will make the clip on TikTok) but all he has to do is look more level-headed than Trump and he's there.

Having spent the last couple of years saying he has dementia, Republicans have switched to saying that he's mentally sharp, ahead of the debate.
I think they left the counterspin a bit too late, though, so your analysis is about right.

MisterBedfordshire said:

This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.

Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.

This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.

We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...

Farooq said:

Cookie said:

Foxy said:

When you look at our piss-poor choices on offer for next week a glance across the pond is a useful tonic. Things could be worse...

You don't even have to look across the Pond. Across the Channel will do.

Le Pen obviously. But I don't get the hatred for Macron in these parts.
I mean, I get that the fash-curious hate him for having beaten their lass, but otherwise?

The French left seem to hate Macron more than Le Pen. So, if anything, I’d expect more centrist votes to go to RN than the Popular Front in the run offs.

Richard_Tyndall said:

kle4 said:

Grandcanyon said:

Portillo backs Farage on Russia.

massive intervention in Farage Ukraine Dispute this evening on GB News. Michael Portillo who was Defence Minister at relevant time and a University Professor who is an Authority on the subject both agreed the attacks on Farage were willful and disreputable and had intent to smear. Both agreed his comments were a fair summing up of a reasonable view of the situation.

Obviously views varied and that if you went back to Gorbachev and the breakup of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact the West ignored Gobachev’s wishes on NATO expansion and the need for a security pact between Russia and the West.

They both also recognized critical time we are living through, and Farage alone,amongst the leaders, had been the one who has brought up and was prepared to discuss the subject of Ukraine, the war and it’s possible implications. Both felt it was a discussion the country needs, especially in a General Election.

https://x.com/DavidBlakeman13/status/1806060145337880893

What a load of nonsense, the others are prepared to discuss it they just don't agree with Farage on it.

I see we're back to the idea quoting someone's views and responding to them is smearing though. What an absolute snowflake Farage and co are.

Hmm. To be fair, whilst I think Farage is completely wrong, it is fair to say that most of the attacks I have seen on him have been along the lines of him being a Putin shill and a traitor rather than any reasoned response.

I mean, as an example, plenty of us on here could have given a reasoned response which would have demolished him but I haven't actually seen anyone bother. And that includes me. We have been content just to say rude things about him. Same goes for the wider press and commentators.

I disagree, the reasoned takedowns have been alongside the intemperate ones, then he pretends the former don't exist.

For example, his ludicrous blaming the situation on EU expansion has been explained to be absurd. It is then noted how it makes him a Putin shill. He then whinges that people said a mean thing.

TimS said:

not_on_fire said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Gallowgate said:

Last week of this Tory government? 🌶️🌶️🔥🔥😎👌

Thats what everyone thought in 1992 and 2015.

Must have been around this point that the EdStone started to be chiselled...

Seriously, whilst clearly nobody’s expecting a Tory victory, both this site and the media (and local by-elections) keep finding people who, reluctant though they may claim to be, are going to end up voting Conservative after all. The @Big_G_NorthWales effect.

If this election ends up being much closer than predicted then we can thank BigG for the insight he gave us into this phenomenon at an early stage.

In the end, I’ll likely vote Conservative, grudgingly.

I think there’s a fair chance that Reform will poll 10% or so, and the Conservatives 25% or so. With Labour on 40% or just under, that would secure c.150 seats.

SMukesh said:

Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.

Yet his opponents accuse him of being drugged up if he does well, so they win either way.

Trump rambles incoherently constantly but unfortunately none of his supporters care, so an unedifying encounter of two very old men past their prime looks likely. Only one cares about democracy though.

Casino_Royale said:

Gallowgate said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Gallowgate said:

Last week of this Tory government? 🌶️🌶️🔥🔥😎👌

Thats what everyone thought in 1992 and 2015.

Would be quite hilarious if the exit poll showed a hung parliament.

That died the second Reform took off.

If (and this is a massive if) the Tories had (largely) stopped the boats, and brought net migration down a bit then, with everything else being equal and no Reform, I could see them being at 32-34% and Labour at 35-38% and we really would have a hung parliament.

SKS is a very lucky general.

I think this narrative is likely to win out, post defeat.

It is, of course, bollocks.

There is no appeasing the bastard tendency on the right. The supply creates the demand as the right's combined market share inexorably shrinks.

RochdalePioneers said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.

Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.

This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.

We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...

It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.

MisterBedfordshire said:

LostPassword said:

TimS said:

not_on_fire said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Gallowgate said:

Last week of this Tory government? 🌶️🌶️🔥🔥😎👌

Thats what everyone thought in 1992 and 2015.

Must have been around this point that the EdStone started to be chiselled...

Seriously, whilst clearly nobody’s expecting a Tory victory, both this site and the media (and local by-elections) keep finding people who, reluctant though they may claim to be, are going to end up voting Conservative after all. The @Big_G_NorthWales effect.

If this election ends up being much closer than predicted then we can thank BigG for the insight he gave us into this phenomenon at an early stage.

Jonathan warned us about the shambling blue hordes heading to the polling booth to place their customary X against the Tory candidate before BigG shuffled back into the Tory fold.

That is why I am tempted by Ladbrokes 14-1 on NOM.

Winning a majority when you need 120 seats to do so (140 incl boundary changes) is not a straightforward challenge, whatever the opinion polls say.

20s on bf (non-exchange).

state_go_away said:

Carnyx said:

MattW said:

Carnyx said:

O/T but from the regular English Heritage mailing - they are flagging up the engineers (inter alii), John Smeaton, and the early women engineers. Some surprises, too.

https://heritagecalling.com/2024/06/06/the-life-and-work-of-john-smeaton-the-father-of-civil-engineering/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=brand

https://heritagecalling.com/2023/06/22/6-inspirational-women-engineers-from-history/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=brand

How do you rate EH compared to NT?

Not a NT member myself (but NTS, yes), so outwith my expertise to comment (shocking as that is on PB). Very different organizations in terms of their remits, obviously: roughly, with grey areas such as archaeology of farmland, EH are a government agency charged with the built heritage alone, and have statutory duties; NT also deals with landscape.

Edit: for instance EH have the records duty, which is reflected in their mailings (e.g. photographs of old sites).

I dont think EH is a government agency anymore but turned itself into a charity a few years ago? Personallly I am a member of NT and a member of the civil service sports and lesiure society that gets you free entry to EH sites - I enjoy both but generally you spend longer at an NH site than EH. The exception being Brodsworth manor near Doncaster which is EH (but has a roof and furniture!) but one of the best gardens in England

Thyanks. On checking, EH actually spliut into two bodies, Historic England (gmt agency) and English Heritage which is the offloaded charity with the ruins. CAmeronian principle presumably.

https://historicengland.org.uk/about/how-we-are-funded/

From yesterday's debate:

Q: What will you do to assist people with illnesses and disabilities get back into work?

Starmer: Ensure that they receive the medical treatment they need, and work with employers to develop transition plans to facilitate people re-entering the workplace.

Sunak: Most of them are just swinging the lead. We want to take their benefits away. Workshy, scroungers, layabouts.

Farooq said:

Sean_F said:

Farooq said:

Cookie said:

Foxy said:

When you look at our piss-poor choices on offer for next week a glance across the pond is a useful tonic. Things could be worse...

You don't even have to look across the Pond. Across the Channel will do.

Le Pen obviously. But I don't get the hatred for Macron in these parts.
I mean, I get that the fash-curious hate him for having beaten their lass, but otherwise?

The French left seem to hate Macron more than Le Pen. So, if anything, I’d expect more centrist votes to go to RN than the Popular Front in the run offs.

We'll see, but not quite what we were talking about. We were talking about our perceptions of their candidates.
Given that 95% of American voters will apparently vote for Biden or Trump there's clearly some willingness there. But I wouldn't want that choice.
Contrast that with France. Obviously Le Pen is a nightmare, but would I vote for Macron? Yes. No qualms.

I think he got plenty of grudging praise on here when reelected as best of the options, and his rise has been impressive.

Cookie said:

Farooq said:

Cookie said:

Foxy said:

When you look at our piss-poor choices on offer for next week a glance across the pond is a useful tonic. Things could be worse...

You don't even have to look across the Pond. Across the Channel will do.

Le Pen obviously. But I don't get the hatred for Macron in these parts.
I mean, I get that the fash-curious hate him for having beaten their lass, but otherwise?

If Macron = Sunak - centrist with record of failure - our alternatives to him are Starmer, Davey amd Farage. Even if Farage = Le Pen, Starmer and Davey are a far more appetising choice than Mechelon.

I’d vote Le Pen in preference to Melenchon. She’s less bigoted than he is.

Casino_Royale said:

Gallowgate said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Gallowgate said:

Last week of this Tory government? 🌶️🌶️🔥🔥😎👌

Thats what everyone thought in 1992 and 2015.

Would be quite hilarious if the exit poll showed a hung parliament.

That died the second Reform took off.

If (and this is a massive if) the Tories had (largely) stopped the boats, and brought net migration down a bit then, with everything else being equal and no Reform, I could see them being at 32-34% and Labour at 35-38% and we really would have a hung parliament.

SKS is a very lucky general.

Look at the long term trend. The Tories would be on about 25% without Reform, Labour 45%. I think the very best result would have been 40:30 with some swing back.

(Assuming the polls are legit)

Q: “How could the polls have been so wrong?”

A: “In the end, I’ll likely vote Conservative, grudgingly”.

Benpointer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Refom 50/1 overall majority.
Conservative 66/1 overal majority.

-Ladbrokes.

Not what you expect to see.

Both are priced way too likely. I would have put the Tory chances at 500/1 and Reform at 1000/1

1000/1 is way too low for Reform imo. 100k/1 would be too low.

The Leicester City effect. No matter how improbable the outcome you're not going to get better than 1,000-1.

TimS said:

Q: “How could the polls have been so wrong?”

A: “In the end, I’ll likely vote Conservative, grudgingly”.

That said, even the polls have 20% voting Tory. We don't know how many of that 20% would have added 'reluctantly'.

state_go_away said:

Benpointer said:

RochdalePioneers said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.

Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.

This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.

We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...

It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.

just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .

I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .

First paragraph, good point.

Second paragraph, I think you're deeply misguided but your choice obvs, and no doubt you are not alone.

state_go_away said:

Benpointer said:

RochdalePioneers said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.

Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.

This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.

We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...

It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.

just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .

I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .

I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)

How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)

However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted

Ghedebrav said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Refom 50/1 overall majority.
Conservative 66/1 overal majority.

-Ladbrokes.

Not what you expect to see.

That is ridiculous. Not only are the Tories generally ahead in the polls, FPTP vastly favours them over Reform.

66/1 for something highly unlikely
50/1for something practically impossible

Not really - Reform would get FPTP to work for them if they get 40%

state_go_away said:

Ghedebrav said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Refom 50/1 overall majority.
Conservative 66/1 overal majority.

-Ladbrokes.

Not what you expect to see.

That is ridiculous. Not only are the Tories generally ahead in the polls, FPTP vastly favours them over Reform.

66/1 for something highly unlikely
50/1for something practically impossible

Not really - Reform would get FPTP to work for them if they get 40%

If they get 40% they have probably got the KGB working for them as well as FPTP.

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

SMukesh said:

Clearly the focus will be on Biden. if he is as far gone as the images seem to suggest, he might struggle to hold it together for a full debate.

Yet his opponents accuse him of being drugged up if he does well, so they win either way.

Trump rambles incoherently constantly but unfortunately none of his supporters care, so an unedifying encounter of two very old men past their prime looks likely. Only one cares about democracy though.

'Drugging up' someone with dementia would be highly unlikely to improve their debate performance.

And we know whose White House was an actual pill mill.

The allegation that he was on some kind of amphetamines for the State of the Union looks quite convincing to me - the sudden extraordinary improvement in lucidity and eloquence was striking, as was the massive relapse to his normal senility thereafter

Moreover they will want to avoid any “accidents”. A medically informed (and left wing) friend of mine recently gave me a plausible explanation for Biden’s weird behaviour on the White House lawn the other day. I’ll spare PB the unhappy details and precise medical words my friend used, but it all made sense

Also, how many octogenarians are NOT on multiple drugs? It’s normal. I am sure Trump is as well. He’s definitely been guzzling ozempic you can see it in his face

Leon said:

On topic. I am on the top deck of a boat, the Inez-Sun, burning under a cloudless sky, heading out to a mystical island - Ile de Sein - known in ancient times for its virgin witches and female druids, who wore black hats and who could shapeshift into evil hares, as they cursed the world with Satanic magic. In later times the island was notorious for its wreckers, luring sailors to a grisly death, their skulls smashed to bloody pieces on the infamous rocks of this bleak and treeless shore

Perhaps to make up for this slightly checkered history, in 1940, after Charles De Gaulle’s famous appeal to the “free French” in his June 18 London radio broadcast, the entire able bodied male population got in their fishing boats and sailed to England, so as to fight the Nazis. Many never returned. This provoked De Gaulle to say: “a quarter of the French Resistance is from the Ile de Sein”

I hear they have good moules

Leon said:

On topic. I am on the top deck of a boat, the Inez-Sun, burning under a cloudless sky, heading out to a mystical island - Ile de Sein - known in ancient times for its virgin witches and female druids, who wore black hats and who could shapeshift into evil hares, as they cursed the world with Satanic magic. In later times the island was notorious for its wreckers, luring sailors to a grisly death, their skulls smashed to bloody pieces on the infamous rocks of this bleak and treeless shore

Perhaps to make up for this slightly checkered history, in 1940, after Charles De Gaulle’s famous appeal to the “free French” in his June 18 London radio broadcast, the entire able bodied male population got in their fishing boats and sailed to England, so as to fight the Nazis. Many never returned. This provoked De Gaulle to say: “a quarter of the French Resistance is from the Ile de Sein”

I hear they have good moules

Your fellow travel hacks are on your trail.

Rail route of the month: Nantes to Quimper, France – a Breton classic
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/article/2024/jun/27/nantes-to-quimper-france-rail-route-breton-classic

Electoral Calculus has an estimated 250 seat Lab majority and, with 18% of the vote, Reform on 19 seats.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

Seems a large number of seats for Reform. Can it be so?

Leon said:

state_go_away said:

Benpointer said:

RochdalePioneers said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.

Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.

This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.

We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...

It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.

just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .

I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .

I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)

How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)

However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted

Completing a postal vote for someone else is a criminal offence.

Kevin Hollinrake, the business minister, has said he placed a bet on the Conservatives to win the election, but added that gambling on his constituency seat would be “wrong”.

Although Mr Hollinrake said he bet on the outcome of the General Election, he claimed he would not put a wager on the result of the Thirsk and Malton seat, where he is a candidate.

Asked whether he had bet on a Tory victory, Mr Hollinrake said: “Yes, I did. Not my seat, I think that would be wrong.”

Westminster has been engulfed by a gambling scandal with five Conservatives being investigated by the commission over alleged election bets.

He added: “This situation has definitely opened up a debate that we should have a proper debate about and decide whether it’s right or wrong that people have a bet on things they are involved in.”

The odds of the Conservative Party winning the election on July 4 are 125/1, according to Oddschecker, as the party trails Labour by around 20 points in the opinion polls.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

Leon said:

state_go_away said:

Benpointer said:

RochdalePioneers said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.

Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.

This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.

We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...

It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.

just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .

I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .

I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)

How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)

However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted

You don't have 2 votes. You have 1. It is a crime to use your ex wife's vote. Not likely to get caught, but you have admitted it here and voter fraud is usually harshly punished.

Ghedebrav said:

state_go_away said:

Benpointer said:

RochdalePioneers said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.

Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.

This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.

We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...

It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.

just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .

I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .

I tend to agree with this. The polling has been so consistently, across all companies, showing the Tories in the doldrums that it would pretty much end the polling industry if it is a major upset now.

Caveats:

There will be a lot of seats on razor's edge. A small swing one way or the other could be a difference of 50-odd seats.

Turnout. I'm genuinely unsure where this will end up, but my instinct is that a lower turnout will help the Conservatives as a lot ex-Conservative voters will simply not bother rather than actually switching their vote. Equally, apathy/complacency towards a Labour win may not GOTV for the disengaged who are leaning Lab.

At this stage, I still think we'll have a strong win for Starmer - all the available evidence points to this being the case - but I remain unconvinced by the Con ELE scenario.

Reform seem to be dropping back now. If that trend continues up to polling day and/or polls overstate them, that will mean the difference between the Conservatives becoming the third party, and getting well into three figures.