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What’s this market going to look like tomorrow morning? – politicalbetting.com
What’s this market going to look like tomorrow morning? – politicalbetting.com
Tonight sees the ridiculously premature American Presidential debate and this is a potential game changer and I can see this being the only debate of the campaign and if one of the candidates has a shocker it might be the narrative of the campaign.
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https://heritagecalling.com/2024/06/06/the-life-and-work-of-john-smeaton-the-father-of-civil-engineering/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=brand
https://heritagecalling.com/2023/06/22/6-inspirational-women-engineers-from-history/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=brand
What the American voters will make of it, I wouldn't have a clue.
Leading actors, artists and directors from Bill Nighy to Grayson Perry have signed up to Labour’s pledges and its manifesto promise of a “creative education for every child”.
The signatories said in the letter, published in The Times on Thursday, that they believed “our country needs change”.
In words echoing the “Luvvies for Labour” movement at the dawn of the Tony Blair era, the signatories said a Sir Keir Starmer administration would work with both commercial and not-for-profit sectors to help the nation’s £120 billion creative industries sector “lead the world”.
They said every part of the creative industries sector from advertising to video games would “benefit …. from a Labour government”.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/luvvies-for-labour-again-as-arts-stars-sign-letter-backing-starmer-rzrj95jn6
If this election ends up being much closer than predicted then we can thank BigG for the insight he gave us into this phenomenon at an early stage.
The problem is that the process is automated at YouTube’s end, so the streams will get nixed and the offenders banned from streaming for a week. Many commentators have decided to either host elsewhere (Twitter, Rumble, their own websites), or to see what happens, and possibly make the news tomorrow about CNN being dicks and the old media dying, rather than what happened at the debate.
“Llandudno couple”.
Conservative 66/1 overal majority.
-Ladbrokes.
Not what you expect to see.
He doesn't even have to do brilliantly. Sure, he'll probably mince his words at some point or say something nonsensical (which will make the clip on TikTok) but all he has to do is look more level-headed than Trump and he's there.
Winning a majority when you need 120 seats to do so (140 incl boundary changes) is not a straightforward challenge, whatever the opinion polls say.
If (and this is a massive if) the Tories had (largely) stopped the boats, and brought net migration down a bit then, with everything else being equal and no Reform, I could see them being at 32-34% and Labour at 35-38% and we really would have a hung parliament.
SKS is a very lucky general.
So now you are claiming it is 1 week to go when by your own methedology it should only be 6 days.
I don't mind which way you count it but if you are going to criticise others and make snide remarks at least be consistent in your own methedology.
Part of the reason I predicted 26.9% to the Tories and 159 seats (prediction made before BigG's "shock" u-turn)
The more I practice, the luckier I get.
The more they put out, the more luck they have.
The harder he works, the luckier he gets.
The more you know, the more luck you have.
I went looking for the supposed Gary Player quote but found this was the earliest known example of the aphorism from 1900.
Edit: for instance EH have the records duty, which is reflected in their mailings (e.g. photographs of old sites).
I see the government polling in ROK ain't great either.
https://x.com/AsiaElects/status/1806152313045930212?t=J89dUrzjUyoOFufMspapbA&s=19
I mean, I get that the fash-curious hate him for having beaten their lass, but otherwise?
The giveaway is that Reform (currently 1 MP, behind Conservatives in nearly all polls) are shorter odds than the Conservatives (currently have lots of MPs and ahead of Reform in the polls).
His party already lost the parliamentary elections.
S Korea's politics is strange. Their most popular president is a dictator who was assassinated nearly half a century ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yND9hDpPwYA
I think they left the counterspin a bit too late, though, so your analysis is about right.
This suggests a Con seat total below 100.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
The did exactly the same in 2017 and 2005..
For example, his ludicrous blaming the situation on EU expansion has been explained to be absurd. It is then noted how it makes him a Putin shill. He then whinges that people said a mean thing.
I think there’s a fair chance that Reform will poll 10% or so, and the Conservatives 25% or so. With Labour on 40% or just under, that would secure c.150 seats.
Trump rambles incoherently constantly but unfortunately none of his supporters care, so an unedifying encounter of two very old men past their prime looks likely. Only one cares about democracy though.
Given that 95% of American voters will apparently vote for Biden or Trump there's clearly some willingness there. But I wouldn't want that choice.
Contrast that with France. Obviously Le Pen is a nightmare, but would I vote for Macron? Yes. No qualms.
Last minute silent-tories who have hesitated for weeks will come to the fore.
It is, of course, bollocks.
There is no appeasing the bastard tendency on the right. The supply creates the demand as the right's combined market share inexorably shrinks.
Worth noting that Trump would be older than Biden was if he wins again, and he's made a lot about how Biden is too old, so logically anyone concerned by Biden's age should vote for neither, but politics has never been very logical.
Perhaps to make up for this slightly checkered history, in 1940, after Charles De Gaulle’s famous appeal to the “free French” in his June 18 London radio broadcast, the entire able bodied male population got in their fishing boats and sailed to England, so as to fight the Nazis. Many never returned. This provoked De Gaulle to say: “a quarter of the French Resistance is from the Ile de Sein”
I hear they have good moules
https://historicengland.org.uk/about/how-we-are-funded/
Q: What will you do to assist people with illnesses and disabilities get back into work?
Starmer: Ensure that they receive the medical treatment they need, and work with employers to develop transition plans to facilitate people re-entering the workplace.
Sunak: Most of them are just swinging the lead. We want to take their benefits away. Workshy, scroungers, layabouts.
Sadly not happening though, as it requires amending the Constitution.
(Assuming the polls are legit)
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
A: “In the end, I’ll likely vote Conservative, grudgingly”.
Long time to the next presidentials though, and Le Pen has already had multiple tries.
66/1 for something highly unlikely
50/1for something practically impossible
Second paragraph, I think you're deeply misguided but your choice obvs, and no doubt you are not alone.
https://www.english-heritage.org.uk/visit/places/bolsover-castle/events/
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
And we know whose White House was an actual pill mill.
Bets driven by narrative thinking.
Narrative thinking is a poor substitute for analytical thinking.
It's the the thing I keep banging on about on here.
Moreover they will want to avoid any “accidents”. A medically informed (and left wing) friend of mine recently gave me a plausible explanation for Biden’s weird behaviour on the White House lawn the other day. I’ll spare PB the unhappy details and precise medical words my friend used, but it all made sense
Also, how many octogenarians are NOT on multiple drugs? It’s normal. I am sure Trump is as well. He’s definitely been guzzling ozempic you can see it in his face
Caveats:
There will be a lot of seats on razor's edge. A small swing one way or the other could be a difference of 50-odd seats.
Turnout. I'm genuinely unsure where this will end up, but my instinct is that a lower turnout will help the Conservatives as a lot ex-Conservative voters will simply not bother rather than actually switching their vote. Equally, apathy/complacency towards a Labour win may not GOTV for the disengaged who are leaning Lab.
At this stage, I still think we'll have a strong win for Starmer - all the available evidence points to this being the case - but I remain unconvinced by the Con ELE scenario.
Rail route of the month: Nantes to Quimper, France – a Breton classic
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/article/2024/jun/27/nantes-to-quimper-france-rail-route-breton-classic
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
Seems a large number of seats for Reform. Can it be so?
This time RN (and the Ciotti Republicans) are on about 37% in the polls, and in round 2, the choice will mostly be between them and a left wing, rather than centrist, candidate.