When something is both little and large – politicalbetting.com

SitCom Characters

SKS- Private Sponge (Dads Army)
Sunak - Frank Spencer (Some Mothers Do Ave Em)
Ed Davey - Peggy (Hi de Hi)
Farage - Del Boy (Only Fools and Horses)
Carla - Barbara Good (The Good Life)

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

kinabalu said:

eek said:

kinabalu said:

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:

Andy_JS said:

When a party is heading for a majority of 264 seats with 39.5% of the vote, as Electoral Calculus is currently forecasting, you know they must be distributing their vote very efficiently.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

Labour aren't really distributing any votes.
It's more that their opponents are splitting their votes very effectively.

Yup. The biggest factor is the RefCon split, and there's not very much Starmer can do about that.

(I'm not sure that there's much Reform or the Conservatives can do about it either in the short term, but hey ho.)

So Starmer might as well get on with governing well. And the 100 or so flukiest Labour MPs had best enjoy the ride.

It's good for SKS, I think. If he gets (say) a 250 majority he can mentally split it into 2 parts. A core majority of 150 and a dispensable frothy add-on of another 100. Rather like a pint of bitter with a big head on it. The 'head' he can use when spending political capital on the tough 'to govern is to choose' decisions he will need to take if he is to be a radical reforming PM in the progressive tradition. Normally a PM would have to be spending some of their real and actual majority when doing the hard controversial stuff. They'd be drinking their beer as it were. But Starmer can just pour away the head. He won't need to touch his ale until all of that has gone. Very nice position to be in.

And I think Starmer is going to need all the help he can get because the hand he's been dealt with when he enters Number 10 is just about the worst hand possible - seemingly with a few cards that aren't even part of the game..

I think he's inheriting a great political legacy and a terrible economic one. How long will it take for the second to destroy the first? That is the question. He's well placed for 2 terms, imo, but it's hard (and largely pointless) to predict out that far. I don't see Labour stuffing up to anything like the extent the Cons have since 2016 (and esp these last couple of years), in fact I expect them to govern well, but global events/factors tend to be more influential on us than the actions of our domestic governments, and we have no idea what they will be.

A great political legacy? Have you become a Brexit convert?

Ha, no, but sort of. Brexit has (amazingly) delivered a tangible benefit. The ruination of the Tory Party. And this is Starmer's golden political legacy. The gift of a huge majority yet with an expectations bar (because it's been set by those ruined Tories) that is so low he would need to be beyond terrible at the job to fail to clear it. Talk about being in the right place at the right time. Two terms nailed on. The chance to run the UK for a decade or more. Wow. But it is such a shame he can't tell a good joke and crack us all up. That could spoil everything. He needs to work on that.

Why are you so weirdly hurt and defensive when people point out that starmer is definitely not a comedian and tells cringey jokes?

Quite odd. He’s about to win a massive majority (as you note). What does it matter if people are a bit
mean about his stiff persona?

He’s still gonna win. Chill

I'm neither hurt nor defensive, more irritated and disapproving. Why? Because that sort of punditry is coming from a place I think is shallow and harmful - the idea that the comic ability of politicians is of great importance. It's just a bad way of thinking. It encourages what ought to be discouraged.

Taz said:

Surprisingly down to earth

https://x.com/itvnewspolitics/status/1805553927133282542?s=61

He does good sofa. Was also good on the Sunday Brunch cooking show (tandoori salmon, since you asked).

Personally, I don't get the Taylor Swift thing. At all. But each to his own.

nico679 said:

Taz said:

Surprisingly down to earth

https://x.com/itvnewspolitics/status/1805553927133282542?s=61

I thought he came across really well . I just don’t get this hate for Starmer from some people .

‘Hate’ 🙄

TimS said:

Imagine if opinion polls were banned during elections. The suspense now, and the shock come election night.

Parties would still have their own private polling and canvas returns. So we’d be here interpreting what internal party messaging was saying, or where the party leaders were visiting.

I think they should ban election polling, for the drama.

One reason the Brexit referendum night was so exciting was because there wasn't an exit poll. Slightly different point.

Fairliered said:

boulay said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Spinning off the Starmer as boring dad, I think all the national leaders can be rather pigeon-holed like that.

Starmer - boring dad.
Davey - fun uncle.
Farage - drunk uncle.
Sunak - weird cousin.

We need some females in the family too.

Angela - fun godmother.
Liz - weird older half-sister
Suella - evil stepmother.
Georgia Meloni - au pair.

Nicola Sturgeon - bitter spinster aunt.
Nadine Dorries - cousin that you hide the gin from when she visits.

Now do Salmond.

nigelb asked: "And how would you manage to get control of sufficient votes to make more than a minor difference?" (When I was describing a strategy for "rigging" an election in the UK.)

In the US, there are many elections with relatively small electorates, and low turnouts. Although there are fewer such elections, per capita, in the UK, I assume there are a few.

(Here's a small example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_G._Stinson

As far as I can tell, vote fraud is more likely to tip an election in our primaries, than in our general elections.)

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

kinabalu said:

eek said:

kinabalu said:

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:

Andy_JS said:

When a party is heading for a majority of 264 seats with 39.5% of the vote, as Electoral Calculus is currently forecasting, you know they must be distributing their vote very efficiently.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

Labour aren't really distributing any votes.
It's more that their opponents are splitting their votes very effectively.

Yup. The biggest factor is the RefCon split, and there's not very much Starmer can do about that.

(I'm not sure that there's much Reform or the Conservatives can do about it either in the short term, but hey ho.)

So Starmer might as well get on with governing well. And the 100 or so flukiest Labour MPs had best enjoy the ride.

It's good for SKS, I think. If he gets (say) a 250 majority he can mentally split it into 2 parts. A core majority of 150 and a dispensable frothy add-on of another 100. Rather like a pint of bitter with a big head on it. The 'head' he can use when spending political capital on the tough 'to govern is to choose' decisions he will need to take if he is to be a radical reforming PM in the progressive tradition. Normally a PM would have to be spending some of their real and actual majority when doing the hard controversial stuff. They'd be drinking their beer as it were. But Starmer can just pour away the head. He won't need to touch his ale until all of that has gone. Very nice position to be in.

And I think Starmer is going to need all the help he can get because the hand he's been dealt with when he enters Number 10 is just about the worst hand possible - seemingly with a few cards that aren't even part of the game..

I think he's inheriting a great political legacy and a terrible economic one. How long will it take for the second to destroy the first? That is the question. He's well placed for 2 terms, imo, but it's hard (and largely pointless) to predict out that far. I don't see Labour stuffing up to anything like the extent the Cons have since 2016 (and esp these last couple of years), in fact I expect them to govern well, but global events/factors tend to be more influential on us than the actions of our domestic governments, and we have no idea what they will be.

A great political legacy? Have you become a Brexit convert?

Ha, no, but sort of. Brexit has (amazingly) delivered a tangible benefit. The ruination of the Tory Party. And this is Starmer's golden political legacy. The gift of a huge majority yet with an expectations bar (because it's been set by those ruined Tories) that is so low he would need to be beyond terrible at the job to fail to clear it. Talk about being in the right place at the right time. Two terms nailed on. The chance to run the UK for a decade or more. Wow. But it is such a shame he can't tell a good joke and crack us all up. That could spoil everything. He needs to work on that.

Why are you so weirdly hurt and defensive when people point out that starmer is definitely not a comedian and tells cringey jokes?

Quite odd. He’s about to win a massive majority (as you note). What does it matter if people are a bit
mean about his stiff persona?

He’s still gonna win. Chill

I'm neither hurt nor defensive, more irritated and disapproving. Why? Because that sort of punditry is coming from a place I think is shallow and harmful - the idea that the comic ability of politicians is of great importance. It's just a bad way of thinking. It encourages what ought to be discouraged.

Can you dial down the pomposity? I mean. Seriously. You’re like some affronted Lord Mayor of newent

What do we think's going to happen in Uxbridge, the seat the Tories just managed to hold at the by-election?

Pulpstar said:

malcolmg said:

Taz said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Who could have foreseen this?

Nvidia has lost close to $550bn (£433bn) in a dramatic tumble since being crowned the world’s most valuable company last week.

Shares in the US tech giant, which has become the poster child of the artificial intelligence revolution, fell by almost 7pc on Monday.

This led to its market value sliding to $2.9 trillion, down 16pc from a peak last Thursday.

Nvidia overtook Microsoft and Apple last week to become the world’s most valuable listed company, with a market value of more than $3.4 trillion.

The slide means the company has fallen behind both Microsoft and Apple, and could raise fears that the frenzy around AI has peaked.

Nvidia’s share price had risen by more than 150pc since the start of the year, sparking concerns about a new bubble fuelled by hype around AI.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/25/nvidia-sell-off-wipes-550bn-off-tech-ai-poster-child/

Given the number of shares sold recently by its directors it was always on the cards, or had a strong chance. If they’re profit taking why won’t other investors.

It was always going to happen given the way it has risen, still be rich if you had shares in it. If you have index, IT's, ETF's etc then it has had minimimal impact since Friday, down a fraction overall

Two rules I follow. Time in the market > Timing the market. Buy broad, don't try and pick winners.

Snap. Many far better investors than me advocate time in the market. Indeed it has been said far more money has Been lost anticipating a crash than in the market itself.

I have a few dividend paying stocks but am mainly index funds/ETFs.

Farooq said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jezza with manperson-hole spotting, Boris with wine box buses, Sunak with this coke addiction, Starmer trading friendship bracelets.

His Coke addiction, not his coke addiction.

After the campaign Sunak has had, both his own missteps and the absolute belleneds around him, would anybody blame him if he ended up on the harder stuff....Mexican Coke.

FeersumEnjineeya said:

kinabalu said:

Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.

C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.

I think that was just pipped by his claim that he made models of buses out of wine boxes to relax. That was beyond weird.

Oh god yes, I'd forgotten that. Just so cringily entitled, assuming all the little people would be amused or 'charmed' by that load of facetious shit.

BoJo definitely wins the most unfunny PM ever award.

Scott_xP said:

@PolitlcsUK

🚨 NEW: Thousands of campaign leaflets for Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden have been sent to the wrong constituency

[@BBCNews]

There has to be Labour moles working for CCHQ...its a cock up a day over there.

eek said: "the reason why postal fraud works in the States is because it's the votes arriving after the election date that creates all the issues when things run late."

Both the importance of postal voting, and the date ballots must be in depend, very much on on the state. Washington state, where I live, is an outlier. It is possible to vote in person here, but not as easy as it should be. Ballots must be postmarked by election day, so they can arrive, legally, days after.

But, I repeat, the rules vary widely from state to state.

Now off to do some chores. Back by Friday, at the latest.

PJH said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PJH said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Andy_JS said:

Malmesbury said:

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:

NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?

Farage blew it with his Putin comments.

Not exactly blew it, but put a ceiling on his success.

20% was very possible before. I wonder why he made such a stupid mistake.

Farage was showing signs that he believed he was politically invincible. All the 'wait till I've finished with Labour' stuff suggests he thinks he's some kind of superman. (I'm guessing he got this from Trump.)

And ex-public schoolboy over-confidence. Which is a repeating pattern within our political class in recent years.

That’s lazy stereotyping.

bondegezou said:

PJH said:

bondegezou said:

My picture of the day (indeed, week)! My Vote Compass results for Northern Ireland.

Interesting chart - who do you vote for if you are a socialist Unionist, or a right-wing Nationalist?

(And why are Irish nationalists left wing? In most other places nationalism is firmly right wing).

The Progressive Unionist Party is unionist and left-wing, and has 1 councillor. But they're not standing in the general election and also very paramilitary associated! Some in the Labour Party are keen to stand in Northern Ireland, and they did, I believe, in 2016, but don't currently. There is the breakaway Cross-Community Labour Alternative standing in 1 seat, but I'm unclear on their position on the union.

Aontú are socially conservative nationalists. They have had representation in NI previously, but don't at present. They do have representation in the Republic. They're standing in 10/18 NI seats. Last time, their best result was 4.3% in Foyle.

Lots of anti-imperial nationalisms are left-wing, as with Irish republicanism, pan-Arab nationalism, etc. The Basque ETA were far left.

Thank you - interesting.

I know there used to be a 'NI Labour' way back in the mists of time but the electorates in NI seem to have polarised in their politics as much as in their community allegiances. I suppose the Nationalists were generally poorer, so the left dominated naturally, and the reverse for the unionists.

NILP peaked at around 20% of the vote in 1945, prompting the govt to pursue a deliberate 'divide and rule' policy against them - harnessing the OO and parts of the trade union movement to force them to declare a position on the border.

They initially resisted, preferring to maintain a non-sectarian line, but the party began to splinter until they eventually abandoned neutrality and declared in favour of the union in 1949. At that point, the Catholic vote deserted them and they lost their only Westminster MP in 1950. They staggered on with a handful of Stormont MPs and councillors on and off into the 1970s, but never got close to the level of popularity that they probably would have had if it weren't for the sectarian issue.

One of the many, many what-might-have-beens in NI history...

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

RochdalePioneers said:

kinabalu said:

Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.

C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.

I'm *bored* that Starmer is winning. Because he is being terribly boring and inoffensive. Where's the umph?

This bit is 'win the election' and barring a mega shock it's going to be a resounding success. Then, 5/7 onwards, he's PM. Will he be boring, cautious, ineffectual? Or will he be a good, maybe very good, PM who'll relax a bit more in public over time?

I hope and expect the second, but who knows? What I do know is that people writing him off on the basis he hasn't been a thrill-a-minute as Opposition Leader or in this GE campaign are mainly engaging in prejudice-informed guesswork.

No, we’re just mocking his cringe. In my comment immediately after my mockery (which seems to have upset so many of you so weirdly) I actually say This won’t matter as long as he learns from it. We don’t want or need him to be funny so he doesn’t have to try and he shouldn’t even try

After the last few years we will take dull but competent if he can manage it. We all know he has a tough task (I expect him to fail but I genuinely hope he succeeds)

What we don’t want is an inept politician who also makes us cringe. That will be damaging. Quit the gags Sir Kir

No point trying to backtrack now. You're really put out that he isn't making you laugh so hard it hurts every time you see him. You think it's a big deal that he doesn't (can't?) do that. So much of a big deal that it's cost him your vote.

Scott_xP said:

@PolitlcsUK

🚨 NEW: Thousands of campaign leaflets for Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden have been sent to the wrong constituency

[@BBCNews]

Good. Don't want to risk him winning.

It’s completely unfair that France gets all this natural beauty (and better weather, and slimmer women) while we have Newent, Wick and @kinabalu’s golf club

I’m therefore trying to cheer myself out of my jealousy by working out what is the most boring, least interesting department of France. The obvious choice would be somewhere in Picardy but I think I’ve found a prime candidate

Creuse. It seems to be the ultimate nowhere land smack bang in the middle of the country. It has a tiny population with only lozere smaller (in departments) but Lozere is quite spectacular -moors, mountains, megaliths and ravines

Creuse has… farms. And a town that used to make tapestries. That seems to be it

Is it that bad? Has anyone been? How boring is creuse?

Andy_JS said:

What do we think's going to happen in Uxbridge, the seat the Tories just managed to hold at the by-election?

Hyper marginal on UNS from yesterday's Savanta. Will be very close I think and is round about where I think the Tory London firewall sits

FrancisUrquhart said:

This GE campaign has to have had the least discussion of policy ever. I doubt if the public could even tell you what the parties policies are under than something something National Service vs Labour something something VAT, private schools, growth. Lib Dems, no idea. Farage Party, no immigrants, SNP, Freeeedddoooommm.

Conservatives = More of the last 14 years of economic stagnation, failure and corruption. More handouts for pensioners. Natty serves.
Labour = We're clearly going to put up taxes, but won't tell you which ones until we're safely in office. No real plan for the economy.
Lib Dems = We clearly will put up taxes, and we've told you which ones. Our plans will wreck the economy.
RefUK = We hate immigrants and anything woke. We love a cheeky pint, and Vladimir Putin.
Green = Welcome (Corbynite) refugees. Eat the rich. Free Palestine. The environment? What's that?

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

RochdalePioneers said:

kinabalu said:

Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.

C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.

I'm *bored* that Starmer is winning. Because he is being terribly boring and inoffensive. Where's the umph?

This bit is 'win the election' and barring a mega shock it's going to be a resounding success. Then, 5/7 onwards, he's PM. Will he be boring, cautious, ineffectual? Or will he be a good, maybe very good, PM who'll relax a bit more in public over time?

I hope and expect the second, but who knows? What I do know is that people writing him off on the basis he hasn't been a thrill-a-minute as Opposition Leader or in this GE campaign are mainly engaging in prejudice-informed guesswork.

No, we’re just mocking his cringe. In my comment immediately after my mockery (which seems to have upset so many of you so weirdly) I actually say This won’t matter as long as he learns from it. We don’t want or need him to be funny so he doesn’t have to try and he shouldn’t even try

After the last few years we will take dull but competent if he can manage it. We all know he has a tough task (I expect him to fail but I genuinely hope he succeeds)

What we don’t want is an inept politician who also makes us cringe. That will be damaging. Quit the gags Sir Kir

No point trying to backtrack now. You're really put out that he isn't making you laugh so hard it hurts every time you see him. You think it's a big deal that he doesn't (can't?) do that. So much of a big deal that it's cost him your vote.

No, you're missing the point. See also the Ryan Giggs clip. It's not just not funny, its the antithesis of funny. If funny is 1 and not funny is 0, what SKS and Ryan Giggs are are -1. Perhaps even i. It has all the cadences of humour, without the humour itself. It's awful and weirdly compelling.
It's not just failing to tell a joke well, it's failing to recognise whether the story he's telling falls into the category of 'anecdote' or not.
Many people aren't particularly funny. But this is more than just telling a joke which doesn't land. It's, well, weird. And certainly worthy of comment.

I think Leon has said though that he still intends to vote Labour. Doesn't mean he can't then comment on the Labour leader's oddities.

eek said:

Nigelb said:

Jim_Miller said:

FPT: In the US, in recent decades, most vote fraud has been committed with postal ballots, for a simple reason: they need not be secret. I suspect the same applies in the UK.

So, if I wanted to "rig" an election in the UK, I would encourage the use of postal ballots, and I would concentrate on areas where the voters, or their parents and grandparents, come from places where vote fraud is common.

And how would you manage to get control of sufficient votes to make more than a minor difference ?

+ the reason why postal fraud works in the States is because it's the votes arriving after the election date that creates all the issues when things run late.

You don't get that in the UK because if your postal vote isn't in the hands of the correct people by 10pm on July 4th it doesn't count.

No. The timing doesn’t affect whether there’s fraud.

Leon said:

It’s completely unfair that France gets all this natural beauty (and better weather, and slimmer women) while we have Newent, Wick and @kinabalu’s golf club

I’m therefore trying to cheer myself out of my jealousy by working out what is the most boring, least interesting department of France. The obvious choice would be somewhere in Picardy but I think I’ve found a prime candidate

Creuse. It seems to be the ultimate nowhere land smack bang in the middle of the country. It has a tiny population with only lozere smaller (in departments) but Lozere is quite spectacular -moors, mountains, megaliths and ravines

Creuse has… farms. And a town that used to make tapestries. That seems to be it

Is it that bad? Has anyone been? How boring is creuse?

If we're comparing like with like then you'll need to see what if offers vis a vis Bedfordshire.

Mexicanpete said:

...

eek said:

I note Stellantis are threatening to close their 2 UK based factories.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/25/labour-2030-ban-petrol-vauxhall-shut-down-factory/

To emphasis the scale of the problem - if you want to buy an Astra Electric car - most dealers will give you a 35% off the list price taking it from £40,000 down to £27,000 or so..

The fall of in demand for electric vehicles aside, Stellantis are up S*** Street as it is. Peugeot Citroen could survive but Vauxhall/Opel and Fiat (essentially a Russian doll two car line up-500 & 600) are in big trouble and Chrysler-Jeep in even bigger trouble.

Stellantis are the British Leyland on the 2020s.

Who is buying their cars these days? There are far better options before we even get the rush of Chinese subsidised ones flooding the market.

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This GE campaign has to have had the least discussion of policy ever. I doubt if the public could even tell you what the parties policies are under than something something National Service vs Labour something something VAT, private schools, growth. Lib Dems, no idea. Farage Party, no immigrants, SNP, Freeeedddoooommm.

Conservatives = More of the last 14 years of economic stagnation, failure and corruption. More handouts for pensioners. Natty serves.
Labour = We're clearly going to put up taxes, but won't tell you which ones until we're safely in office. No real plan for the economy.
Lib Dems = We clearly will put up taxes, and we've told you which ones. Our plans will wreck the economy.
RefUK = We hate immigrants and anything woke. We love a cheeky pint, and Vladimir Putin.
Green = Welcome (Corbynite) refugees. Eat the rich. Free Palestine. The environment? What's that?

Yeap that is about it.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sir Keir has pledged that no young person caught with a knife will escape sanction under Labour such as jail, tagging, curfew, fine or behavioural contracts.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/24/labour-to-hold-knife-crime-summit-in-bid-to-halve-incidents/

Jails are full, curfews, who is going to enforce them, so its ASBOS for knife wielding thugs (but none of that racist stop and search).

Or ankle tags.

eek said:

Nigelb said:

Jim_Miller said:

FPT: In the US, in recent decades, most vote fraud has been committed with postal ballots, for a simple reason: they need not be secret. I suspect the same applies in the UK.

So, if I wanted to "rig" an election in the UK, I would encourage the use of postal ballots, and I would concentrate on areas where the voters, or their parents and grandparents, come from places where vote fraud is common.

And how would you manage to get control of sufficient votes to make more than a minor difference ?

+ the reason why postal fraud works in the States is because it's the votes arriving after the election date that creates all the issues when things run late.

You don't get that in the UK because if your postal vote isn't in the hands of the correct people by 10pm on July 4th it doesn't count.

Your initial sentence is bullshit in my humble yet professional opinion. Seeing as how in just about all jurisdictions that I'm aware of, these ballots receive the same level - if not higher level - of scrutiny than those returned on or by Election Day.

Actual sources of US postal ballot fraud are generally candidates, campaigns and/or their agents submit fraudulent requests for absentee ballots, either with false signatures OR by getting genuine sigs from voters under false pretenses.

Other potential problem, as cited by Jim Miller, is possible lack of privacy for individuals voting in family or other groups, though in my humble yet professional experience is greatly exaggerated.

BTW (and also FYI) note the following are reported by NYT:

The Republican primary between Representative Bob Good of Virginia, the chairman of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus, and his Trump-backed challenger was still up in the air on Monday almost a week after the balloting, as the two election deniers settled in for a lengthy and ugly fight over who was the true victor.

John J. McGuire, a little-known state senator and former Navy SEAL who attended the “Stop the Steal” rally outside the White House on Jan. 6, 2021, held a razor-thin lead of just under 375 votes out of the nearly 63,000 votes cast, according to The Associated Press. He declared victory last Tuesday night before all the votes were counted, and on Monday, former President Donald J. Trump, who endorsed him, declared Mr. McGuire the winner in a social media post.

But The A.P. said on Monday that the contest was too close to call, noting that while it would be unusual for a recount to shift the outcome of such a race, it would not be impossible. And Mr. Good has already made it clear he will seek a recount, an option under Virginia law, which allows such a request if the winner of a race is less than one percentage point ahead of his opponent.

SSI - In earlier story, Good the Lesser (so far) was hanging his hat/hopes on approx one dozen ballots found in ballot box on counter of Lynchburg city election center the day AFTER election day and added to the count. HOWEVER, note that Lynchburg (home to Liberty University founded by Jerry Falwell) is Good's best turf in the district.

Further note how both Donald Trump AND Kevin McCarthy are seeking revenge versus Good, while Steve Bannon is a major Good (in one sense anyway) backer.

Taz said:

Surprisingly down to earth

https://x.com/itvnewspolitics/status/1805553927133282542?s=61

He comes across well, but this a different Taylor Swift discussion to the one Nigel F posted earlier? If so, it starts to look like a very rehearsed anecdote, although in the clip above he does it well (and better than in the first posted one: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/keir-starmer-gives-verdict-on-taylor-swift-s-wembley-show-as-labour-leader-reveals-favourite-song/ar-BB1oMMuN )

ETA: He does the weird 13.5 age thing in both, which is even stranger if scripted.

ETA2: I'm naming this nascent scandal Taylorgate. He may well Shake It Off but there's bound to be Bad Blood and Starmer increasingly looks like a Blank Space. We'll see the effect within the Fortnight - it could be a Cruel Summer rather than a Love Story!

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

kinabalu said:

eek said:

kinabalu said:

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:

Andy_JS said:

When a party is heading for a majority of 264 seats with 39.5% of the vote, as Electoral Calculus is currently forecasting, you know they must be distributing their vote very efficiently.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

Labour aren't really distributing any votes.
It's more that their opponents are splitting their votes very effectively.

Yup. The biggest factor is the RefCon split, and there's not very much Starmer can do about that.

(I'm not sure that there's much Reform or the Conservatives can do about it either in the short term, but hey ho.)

So Starmer might as well get on with governing well. And the 100 or so flukiest Labour MPs had best enjoy the ride.

It's good for SKS, I think. If he gets (say) a 250 majority he can mentally split it into 2 parts. A core majority of 150 and a dispensable frothy add-on of another 100. Rather like a pint of bitter with a big head on it. The 'head' he can use when spending political capital on the tough 'to govern is to choose' decisions he will need to take if he is to be a radical reforming PM in the progressive tradition. Normally a PM would have to be spending some of their real and actual majority when doing the hard controversial stuff. They'd be drinking their beer as it were. But Starmer can just pour away the head. He won't need to touch his ale until all of that has gone. Very nice position to be in.

And I think Starmer is going to need all the help he can get because the hand he's been dealt with when he enters Number 10 is just about the worst hand possible - seemingly with a few cards that aren't even part of the game..

I think he's inheriting a great political legacy and a terrible economic one. How long will it take for the second to destroy the first? That is the question. He's well placed for 2 terms, imo, but it's hard (and largely pointless) to predict out that far. I don't see Labour stuffing up to anything like the extent the Cons have since 2016 (and esp these last couple of years), in fact I expect them to govern well, but global events/factors tend to be more influential on us than the actions of our domestic governments, and we have no idea what they will be.

A great political legacy? Have you become a Brexit convert?

Ha, no, but sort of. Brexit has (amazingly) delivered a tangible benefit. The ruination of the Tory Party. And this is Starmer's golden political legacy. The gift of a huge majority yet with an expectations bar (because it's been set by those ruined Tories) that is so low he would need to be beyond terrible at the job to fail to clear it. Talk about being in the right place at the right time. Two terms nailed on. The chance to run the UK for a decade or more. Wow. But it is such a shame he can't tell a good joke and crack us all up. That could spoil everything. He needs to work on that.

Why are you so weirdly hurt and defensive when people point out that starmer is definitely not a comedian and tells cringey jokes?

Quite odd. He’s about to win a massive majority (as you note). What does it matter if people are a bit
mean about his stiff persona?

He’s still gonna win. Chill

I'm neither hurt nor defensive, more irritated and disapproving. Why? Because that sort of punditry is coming from a place I think is shallow and harmful - the idea that the comic ability of politicians is of great importance. It's just a bad way of thinking. It encourages what ought to be discouraged.

Can you dial down the pomposity? I mean. Seriously. You’re like some affronted Lord Mayor of newent

Well I just do a mix of serious and kidalong like lots on here. You have to be serious sometimes otherwise you're not grounded in anything. And here I do genuinely feel that the 'Starmer dull' meme is due for retirement. It's become a great deal duller than the eponymous.

As somebody said earlier, maybe the interesting thing about him is the dullness. And we may at last have found a leader who can play 3D chess?

ClippP said:

kinabalu said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

kinabalu said:

Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.

C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.

I think that was just pipped by his claim that he made models of buses out of wine boxes to relax. That was beyond weird.

Oh god yes, I'd forgotten that. Just so cringily entitled, assuming all the little people would be amused or 'charmed' by that load of facetious shit.

BoJo definitely wins the most unfunny PM ever award.

I thought that was intentional. There was a story highly damaging to the Tory campaign, So Johnson pulled that stunt of his. Anybody who looked for the key word in the serious story was taken immediately to the same word in the cardboard bus story.

Really? Didn't hear that story. Well I wouldn't put it past him. "Peppa" certainly wasn't some devious ploy though. That was a man who thought he was funny embarrassing himself and his audience. It was one the key "moments" in his exposure and downfall imo.

DougSeal said:

Andy_JS said:

"Craig Williams, Tory candidate dropped over election bet, says he committed error, but not an offence

Craig Williams, the Tory candidate in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr who is no longer officially backed by the party because of the bet he placed on the date of the election, has posted a video on X with a message for his electorate.

He is pleading for his job. He says he committed “an error of judgment, not an offence” and he in effect downplays the significance of the Gambling Commission’s inquiry into what he did, describing it as “routine”.

He also highlights the work he has done for constituents, as MP for Montgomeryshire over the past five years."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jun/25/uk-general-election-live-updates-latest-today-tories-labour-betting-scandal-polls#top-of-blog

What they never seem to get is that something doesn’t have to reach the level of criminality to be a sackable offence.

We saw that time and time again with expenses scandal. I know its looks bad that I kept changing home, refitting it with my expenses and then sold it on for a profit, but it wasn't against the rules, so why are you bothering me.

Yes, I know I already own a second home 5 minutes from parliament, but I let that one out to my daughter, so I really need the tax payer to fund my rented apartment....I don't understand why you are so angry.

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

RochdalePioneers said:

kinabalu said:

Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.

C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.

I'm *bored* that Starmer is winning. Because he is being terribly boring and inoffensive. Where's the umph?

This bit is 'win the election' and barring a mega shock it's going to be a resounding success. Then, 5/7 onwards, he's PM. Will he be boring, cautious, ineffectual? Or will he be a good, maybe very good, PM who'll relax a bit more in public over time?

I hope and expect the second, but who knows? What I do know is that people writing him off on the basis he hasn't been a thrill-a-minute as Opposition Leader or in this GE campaign are mainly engaging in prejudice-informed guesswork.

No, we’re just mocking his cringe. In my comment immediately after my mockery (which seems to have upset so many of you so weirdly) I actually say This won’t matter as long as he learns from it. We don’t want or need him to be funny so he doesn’t have to try and he shouldn’t even try

After the last few years we will take dull but competent if he can manage it. We all know he has a tough task (I expect him to fail but I genuinely hope he succeeds)

What we don’t want is an inept politician who also makes us cringe. That will be damaging. Quit the gags Sir Kir

No point trying to backtrack now. You're really put out that he isn't making you laugh so hard it hurts every time you see him. You think it's a big deal that he doesn't (can't?) do that. So much of a big deal that it's cost him your vote.

No, you're missing the point. See also the Ryan Giggs clip. It's not just not funny, its the antithesis of funny. If funny is 1 and not funny is 0, what SKS and Ryan Giggs are are -1. Perhaps even i. It has all the cadences of humour, without the humour itself. It's awful and weirdly compelling.
It's not just failing to tell a joke well, it's failing to recognise whether the story he's telling falls into the category of 'anecdote' or not.
Many people aren't particularly funny. But this is more than just telling a joke which doesn't land. It's, well, weird. And certainly worthy of comment.

I think Leon has said though that he still intends to vote Labour. Doesn't mean he can't then comment on the Labour leader's oddities.

Exactly right and very eloquent to boot. He doesn’t apparently understand humour at a basic level. This is like “how do you do fellow kids” but he means it


Add in the non-dreaming and third person stuff and we have a proper oddball coming into number 10. But then maybe that’s what Britain needs as we stare into the abyss

He doesn’t have a favourite poem or novel either. Hmmm. He’s the cliche of an alien trying to be human and failing. But again - that could be just the ticket

Tho TMay and Brown were a bit like this and they were disasters

Nigelb said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

RochdalePioneers said:

kinabalu said:

Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.

C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.

I'm *bored* that Starmer is winning. Because he is being terribly boring and inoffensive. Where's the umph?

This bit is 'win the election' and barring a mega shock it's going to be a resounding success. Then, 5/7 onwards, he's PM. Will he be boring, cautious, ineffectual? Or will he be a good, maybe very good, PM who'll relax a bit more in public over time?

I hope and expect the second, but who knows? What I do know is that people writing him off on the basis he hasn't been a thrill-a-minute as Opposition Leader or in this GE campaign are mainly engaging in prejudice-informed guesswork.

No, we’re just mocking his cringe. In my comment immediately after my mockery (which seems to have upset so many of you so weirdly) I actually say This won’t matter as long as he learns from it. We don’t want or need him to be funny so he doesn’t have to try and he shouldn’t even try

After the last few years we will take dull but competent if he can manage it. We all know he has a tough task (I expect him to fail but I genuinely hope he succeeds)

What we don’t want is an inept politician who also makes us cringe. That will be damaging. Quit the gags Sir Kir

No point trying to backtrack now. You're really put out that he isn't making you laugh so hard it hurts every time you see him. You think it's a big deal that he doesn't (can't?) do that. So much of a big deal that it's cost him your vote.

No, you're missing the point. See also the Ryan Giggs clip. It's not just not funny, its the antithesis of funny. If funny is 1 and not funny is 0, what SKS and Ryan Giggs are are -1. Perhaps even i. It has all the cadences of humour, without the humour itself. It's awful and weirdly compelling.
It's not just failing to tell a joke well, it's failing to recognise whether the story he's telling falls into the category of 'anecdote' or not.
Many people aren't particularly funny. But this is more than just telling a joke which doesn't land. It's, well, weird. And certainly worthy of comment.

I think Leon has said though that he still intends to vote Labour. Doesn't mean he can't then comment on the Labour leader's oddities.

Does no one recall Mrs T's attempts at humour ?

Ha, yes, I was thinking that actually. That was almost the opposite. Thatch had relatively good jokes (whether they were her own or scripted for her is another matter) but she got the delivery absolutely horribly wrong, as if she'd never seen a joke delivered before. SKS has clearly seen a joke delivered before but appears not to recognise what distinguishes an anecdote from not-an-anecdote.

The other aspect to the clip was the bored kids. I mean, it was a boring story, but come on kids - it might have gone somewhere. And even its failure to do so is interesting. And that's the future Prime Minister there talking to you. There is some top grade determination to be bored going on there. Absolute terror of showing enthusiasm in case it arouses mockery from your peers. Well done lads.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mexicanpete said:

...

eek said:

I note Stellantis are threatening to close their 2 UK based factories.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/25/labour-2030-ban-petrol-vauxhall-shut-down-factory/

To emphasis the scale of the problem - if you want to buy an Astra Electric car - most dealers will give you a 35% off the list price taking it from £40,000 down to £27,000 or so..

The fall of in demand for electric vehicles aside, Stellantis are up S*** Street as it is. Peugeot Citroen could survive but Vauxhall/Opel and Fiat (essentially a Russian doll two car line up-500 & 600) are in big trouble and Chrysler-Jeep in even bigger trouble.

Stellantis are the British Leyland on the 2020s.

Who is buying their cars these days? There are far better options before we even get the rush of Chinese subsidised ones flooding the market.

The Chinese ones probably don't actually require much subsidy at this point, as they're now just more efficient at manufacturing them (and have lower labour costs).

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/21/china-spent-230-billion-to-build-its-electric-car-industry-csis-says.html
...China spent $230.8 billion over more than a decade to develop its electric car industry, according to analysis published Thursday by the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The scale of government support represents 18.8% of total electric car sales between 2009 and 2023, said Scott Kennedy, trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at CSIS. He noted the ratio of such spending to EV sales has declined from more than 40% in the years prior to 2017, to just above 11% in 2023...

..The U.S. has been increasing its efforts to support electric cars. The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law in August 2022, allocated $370 billion for promoting clean technologies.

Kennedy pointed out the legislation provides a $7,500 credit for qualifying electric car purchases. That’s in contrast to the average Chinese support per electric car purchase of $4,600 in 2023 — which is down from $13,860 in 2018...

We should probably be trying to get them to build a factory over here.
We might be able to nick their tech, for a change.

Pulpstar said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This GE campaign has to have had the least discussion of policy ever. I doubt if the public could even tell you what the parties policies are under than something something National Service vs Labour something something VAT, private schools, growth. Lib Dems, no idea. Farage Party, no immigrants, SNP, Freeeedddoooommm.

Conservatives = More of the last 14 years of economic stagnation, failure and corruption. More handouts for pensioners. Natty serves.
Labour = We're clearly going to put up taxes, but won't tell you which ones until we're safely in office. No real plan for the economy.
Lib Dems = We clearly will put up taxes, and we've told you which ones. Our plans will wreck the economy.
RefUK = We hate immigrants and anything woke. We love a cheeky pint, and Vladimir Putin.
Green = Welcome (Corbynite) refugees. Eat the rich. Free Palestine. The environment? What's that?

Which taxes are the Lib Dems defo putting up ?

CGT so capital flight / reduced investment in the economy, 'digital services tax' from 2% to 6%, 4% tax on share buyback schemes, reintroducing bank levies and surcharges, a 'proper' windfall tax on oil and gas (no specifics but assume stronger than Labour's proposals), 'reformed' aviation tax on frequent flyers, couple more things I may have forgotten about but overall it's pretty anti-business.

Scott_xP said:

@PolitlcsUK

🚨 NEW: Thousands of campaign leaflets for Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden have been sent to the wrong constituency

[@BBCNews]

Improperly printed? Or someone has to take them to the right constituency in a car? Kinda makes a difference.

Cookie said:

Nigelb said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

RochdalePioneers said:

kinabalu said:

Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.

C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.

I'm *bored* that Starmer is winning. Because he is being terribly boring and inoffensive. Where's the umph?

This bit is 'win the election' and barring a mega shock it's going to be a resounding success. Then, 5/7 onwards, he's PM. Will he be boring, cautious, ineffectual? Or will he be a good, maybe very good, PM who'll relax a bit more in public over time?

I hope and expect the second, but who knows? What I do know is that people writing him off on the basis he hasn't been a thrill-a-minute as Opposition Leader or in this GE campaign are mainly engaging in prejudice-informed guesswork.

No, we’re just mocking his cringe. In my comment immediately after my mockery (which seems to have upset so many of you so weirdly) I actually say This won’t matter as long as he learns from it. We don’t want or need him to be funny so he doesn’t have to try and he shouldn’t even try

After the last few years we will take dull but competent if he can manage it. We all know he has a tough task (I expect him to fail but I genuinely hope he succeeds)

What we don’t want is an inept politician who also makes us cringe. That will be damaging. Quit the gags Sir Kir

No point trying to backtrack now. You're really put out that he isn't making you laugh so hard it hurts every time you see him. You think it's a big deal that he doesn't (can't?) do that. So much of a big deal that it's cost him your vote.

No, you're missing the point. See also the Ryan Giggs clip. It's not just not funny, its the antithesis of funny. If funny is 1 and not funny is 0, what SKS and Ryan Giggs are are -1. Perhaps even i. It has all the cadences of humour, without the humour itself. It's awful and weirdly compelling.
It's not just failing to tell a joke well, it's failing to recognise whether the story he's telling falls into the category of 'anecdote' or not.
Many people aren't particularly funny. But this is more than just telling a joke which doesn't land. It's, well, weird. And certainly worthy of comment.

I think Leon has said though that he still intends to vote Labour. Doesn't mean he can't then comment on the Labour leader's oddities.

Does no one recall Mrs T's attempts at humour ?

Ha, yes, I was thinking that actually. That was almost the opposite. Thatch had relatively good jokes (whether they were her own or scripted for her is another matter) but she got the delivery absolutely horribly wrong, as if she'd never seen a joke delivered before. SKS has clearly seen a joke delivered before but appears not to recognise what distinguishes an anecdote from not-an-anecdote.

The other aspect to the clip was the bored kids. I mean, it was a boring story, but come on kids - it might have gone somewhere. And even its failure to do so is interesting. And that's the future Prime Minister there talking to you. There is some top grade determination to be bored going on there. Absolute terror of showing enthusiasm in case it arouses mockery from your peers. Well done lads.

No one even claimed that thatcher was “funny in private” which is the normal get around. Cf starmer, brown, etc

However thatcher was interestingly bohemian - liked a drink, good red wine or scotch - at lunch! - and liked artistic company. And she was seriously intelligent on any number of subjects. People used to sneer at her intellect - I think she had had the last laugh

Probably the smartest PM of the modern era? Wilson was famously clever but thatcher had a much broader vision

Of recent PMs I think Blair is the brightest

kinabalu said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

RochdalePioneers said:

kinabalu said:

Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.

C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.

I'm *bored* that Starmer is winning. Because he is being terribly boring and inoffensive. Where's the umph?

This bit is 'win the election' and barring a mega shock it's going to be a resounding success. Then, 5/7 onwards, he's PM. Will he be boring, cautious, ineffectual? Or will he be a good, maybe very good, PM who'll relax a bit more in public over time?

I hope and expect the second, but who knows? What I do know is that people writing him off on the basis he hasn't been a thrill-a-minute as Opposition Leader or in this GE campaign are mainly engaging in prejudice-informed guesswork.

No, we’re just mocking his cringe. In my comment immediately after my mockery (which seems to have upset so many of you so weirdly) I actually say This won’t matter as long as he learns from it. We don’t want or need him to be funny so he doesn’t have to try and he shouldn’t even try

After the last few years we will take dull but competent if he can manage it. We all know he has a tough task (I expect him to fail but I genuinely hope he succeeds)

What we don’t want is an inept politician who also makes us cringe. That will be damaging. Quit the gags Sir Kir

No point trying to backtrack now. You're really put out that he isn't making you laugh so hard it hurts every time you see him. You think it's a big deal that he doesn't (can't?) do that. So much of a big deal that it's cost him your vote.

No, you're missing the point. See also the Ryan Giggs clip. It's not just not funny, its the antithesis of funny. If funny is 1 and not funny is 0, what SKS and Ryan Giggs are are -1. Perhaps even i. It has all the cadences of humour, without the humour itself. It's awful and weirdly compelling.
It's not just failing to tell a joke well, it's failing to recognise whether the story he's telling falls into the category of 'anecdote' or not.
Many people aren't particularly funny. But this is more than just telling a joke which doesn't land. It's, well, weird. And certainly worthy of comment.

I think Leon has said though that he still intends to vote Labour. Doesn't mean he can't then comment on the Labour leader's oddities.

I don't miss points, Cookie, you know that.

It's just a sweet and rather forced little story in front of a bunch of stony faced teenagers. THAT is what's funny - least to me - them in the background. The awkwardness. Lol. Poor kids.

But look, it was clearly meant to be gently amusing not bring the house down. And it fell a little flat. So the fuck what? People going on about how incredibly 'cringy' it is - they are the weirdos here. Eg it's absolutely nothing next to "Peppa Pig" and "Buses".

But the good news? Leon is not voting Labour. It's Reform for our gammon with a vocab.

lol. You’re SO defensive. Is it because you’re a bit like kir royale yourself so it feels personal? Quite fascinating

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

kinabalu said:

Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.

C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.

I think that was just pipped by his claim that he made models of buses out of wine boxes to relax. That was beyond weird.

Oh god yes, I'd forgotten that. Just so cringily entitled, assuming all the little people would be amused or 'charmed' by that load of facetious shit.

BoJo definitely wins the most unfunny PM ever award.

It's a difficult thing to measure - but if measured by actual laughs raised, almost certainly not. We've had dozens of deadly serious politicians and exactly one who was light entertainment. Because he made people laugh. He may have made you so constantly furious that you couldn't, but he made many people laugh.

Yes, humour is personal. Which is why it's risky for a PM. They might be making some people laugh and others cringe (or even be offended). Best to keep it very safe - and safe means no riotous laughter unless you're Peter Kay or Tommy Cooper or something. In which case what are you doing wasting yourself in politics?

As for the measurement, I'd propose a net measure not a gross one. So it's laughs generated MINUS cringes and offence given. In which case I think BoJo keeps the award I've given him. He comes bottom.

Leon said:

It’s completely unfair that France gets all this natural beauty (and better weather, and slimmer women) while we have Newent, Wick and @kinabalu’s golf club

I’m therefore trying to cheer myself out of my jealousy by working out what is the most boring, least interesting department of France. The obvious choice would be somewhere in Picardy but I think I’ve found a prime candidate

Creuse. It seems to be the ultimate nowhere land smack bang in the middle of the country. It has a tiny population with only lozere smaller (in departments) but Lozere is quite spectacular -moors, mountains, megaliths and ravines

Creuse has… farms. And a town that used to make tapestries. That seems to be it

Is it that bad? Has anyone been? How boring is creuse?

They make cracking iron cooking ware there, nevertheless, so in a way it’s world famous, in a way that Bedfordshire, isn’t.

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Nigelb said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

RochdalePioneers said:

kinabalu said:

Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.

C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.

I'm *bored* that Starmer is winning. Because he is being terribly boring and inoffensive. Where's the umph?

This bit is 'win the election' and barring a mega shock it's going to be a resounding success. Then, 5/7 onwards, he's PM. Will he be boring, cautious, ineffectual? Or will he be a good, maybe very good, PM who'll relax a bit more in public over time?

I hope and expect the second, but who knows? What I do know is that people writing him off on the basis he hasn't been a thrill-a-minute as Opposition Leader or in this GE campaign are mainly engaging in prejudice-informed guesswork.

No, we’re just mocking his cringe. In my comment immediately after my mockery (which seems to have upset so many of you so weirdly) I actually say This won’t matter as long as he learns from it. We don’t want or need him to be funny so he doesn’t have to try and he shouldn’t even try

After the last few years we will take dull but competent if he can manage it. We all know he has a tough task (I expect him to fail but I genuinely hope he succeeds)

What we don’t want is an inept politician who also makes us cringe. That will be damaging. Quit the gags Sir Kir

No point trying to backtrack now. You're really put out that he isn't making you laugh so hard it hurts every time you see him. You think it's a big deal that he doesn't (can't?) do that. So much of a big deal that it's cost him your vote.

No, you're missing the point. See also the Ryan Giggs clip. It's not just not funny, its the antithesis of funny. If funny is 1 and not funny is 0, what SKS and Ryan Giggs are are -1. Perhaps even i. It has all the cadences of humour, without the humour itself. It's awful and weirdly compelling.
It's not just failing to tell a joke well, it's failing to recognise whether the story he's telling falls into the category of 'anecdote' or not.
Many people aren't particularly funny. But this is more than just telling a joke which doesn't land. It's, well, weird. And certainly worthy of comment.

I think Leon has said though that he still intends to vote Labour. Doesn't mean he can't then comment on the Labour leader's oddities.

Does no one recall Mrs T's attempts at humour ?

Ha, yes, I was thinking that actually. That was almost the opposite. Thatch had relatively good jokes (whether they were her own or scripted for her is another matter) but she got the delivery absolutely horribly wrong, as if she'd never seen a joke delivered before. SKS has clearly seen a joke delivered before but appears not to recognise what distinguishes an anecdote from not-an-anecdote.

The other aspect to the clip was the bored kids. I mean, it was a boring story, but come on kids - it might have gone somewhere. And even its failure to do so is interesting. And that's the future Prime Minister there talking to you. There is some top grade determination to be bored going on there. Absolute terror of showing enthusiasm in case it arouses mockery from your peers. Well done lads.

No one even claimed that thatcher was “funny in private” which is the normal get around. Cf starmer, brown, etc

However thatcher was interestingly bohemian - liked a drink, good red wine or scotch - at lunch! - and liked artistic company. And she was seriously intelligent on any number of subjects. People used to sneer at her intellect - I think she had had the last laugh

Probably the smartest PM of the modern era? Wilson was famously clever but thatcher had a much broader vision

Of recent PMs I think Blair is the brightest

The thing is, you're a bit of a card. At your best, you write very amusing anecdotes and have a good turn of phrase - you can be very funny. At your worst - no, I won't go there. But 95% of the population aren't like that - they can't tell a good joke, they're not great wordsmiths, and their anecdotes are, well, a bit dull. And Starmer is one of the 95%.

But, and it's a big but, most voters aren't choosing their next PM on those criteria, and frankly they couldn't give a flying fuck if Starmer doesn't crease them up with laughter.

Roger said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grandcanyon said:

The drop in reform vote is almost entirely due to the female vote.

https://x.com/RestIsPolitics/status/1805589400631251215

***Legendary modesty klaxon***

My morning thread was once again visionary.

You don't need to be Gypsy Rose Lee to know that Farage will repulse women

I presume he stinks of fags and stale beer and wouldn't want to be near, but weirdly he seems to attract the company of some rather good looking ladies like Holly Valance and Georgia Toffolo.

Leon said:

Pulpstar said:

Leon said:

It’s completely unfair that France gets all this natural beauty (and better weather, and slimmer women) while we have Newent, Wick and @kinabalu’s golf club

I’m therefore trying to cheer myself out of my jealousy by working out what is the most boring, least interesting department of France. The obvious choice would be somewhere in Picardy but I think I’ve found a prime candidate

Creuse. It seems to be the ultimate nowhere land smack bang in the middle of the country. It has a tiny population with only lozere smaller (in departments) but Lozere is quite spectacular -moors, mountains, megaliths and ravines

Creuse has… farms. And a town that used to make tapestries. That seems to be it

Is it that bad? Has anyone been? How boring is creuse?

If we're comparing like with like then you'll need to see what if offers vis a vis Bedfordshire.

Hah. I did for a moment wonder about the “most boring county in Britain” and yes Bedfordshire floated into my head

Oi.

Nothing boring about Bedfordshire. Quite small but have some splendid countryside that is the equal of anything in the Cotswolds and market towns and far enough out of London to be beyond the worst of the stockbroker belt. They get as far as Luton (our London Inner City type borough) and turn back.

And no ULEZ, Congestion Charge or 20mph limits (except short bits by schools)

Why is iPlayer footy coverage on computer only 720p?

Nigelb said:

Well now.

Serbia is being insulted on Russian state TV after information appeared that Serbia sold shells to Western countries.

State TV presenter Sergei Mardan called Serbia a “whore” and said that the Serbs are no longer brothers to the Russians, but enemies
https://x.com/den_kazansky/status/1805324291577196742

In the words of the legendary Boney M... Oh those Russians...

Well the Tories have lost the Whovian vote.

Kemi Badenoch brands David Tennant ‘rich, lefty, white male celebrity’ in trans row

Equalities minister says she will not be ‘silenced by a man’ after Doctor Who actor told her to ‘shut up’ and ‘not exist any more’

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/25/kemi-badenoch-brands-david-tennant-rich-lefty-white-male/

My loins always get girded when I hear La Marseillaise, best national anthem ever.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well the Tories have lost the Whovian vote.

Kemi Badenoch brands David Tennant ‘rich, lefty, white male celebrity’ in trans row

Equalities minister says she will not be ‘silenced by a man’ after Doctor Who actor told her to ‘shut up’ and ‘not exist any more’

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/25/kemi-badenoch-brands-david-tennant-rich-lefty-white-male/

Well looking at the viewing figures for the latest season, they are becoming a lot rarer. "not exist any more", not very tolerant and open to differing opinions from Tennant.

I'm supporting Poland.