I had to watch that through my fingers and it still hurt. He has that deeply cringe strangulated petit booji toe-tapping @kinabalu voice tone that Clarkson sometimes mimics
What makes him think that is funny? On what planet is that funny? “And then - get this - the dog started barking”
That’s worse than anything Truss did. Entire star systems have collapsed into white dwarfs thanks to cringe force less impactful than that
He’s fucking weird. He doesn’t dream. He refers to himself in the third person. He thinks a dog barking is “funny”. Omfg
I wonder if starmer is going to become extremely unpopular very quickly as people look on in horror at what they accidentally elected
Oh, you wonder if Starmer is going to become extremely unpopular very quickly? That’s adorable. It's like wondering if a fish is going to get wet. The British public don't accidentally elect anyone. They knew exactly what they are doing, just like when they buy a crap sandwich at Pret. And as for looking on in horror let's not pretend we're surprised when the honeymoon phase ends. It’s politics. Not everyone can "surprise on the upside" like you so memorably predicted of Liz Truss.
Let's indulge this fantasy that the British electorate, after all they've recently endured from their elected representatives, are suddenly going to clutch their pearls and swoon into disillusionment the moment Starmer says something. If we’re really going to dive into this alternate universe where voters are a fickle bunch of horrified onlookers, let’s do it right. We’ll need fainting couches on every street corner and smelling salts in every home.
Reading your drivel is like watching a monkey solve a Rubik's cube—entertainingly improbable yet utterly pointless.
You are so uninterested in my opinion you actually answered it twice. And differently. And at length. Meaning you spent about half an hour responding to my uninteresting and childish opinion that js worthless and silly
I’m getting really tired of the sexualisation of women by men on this site. @TSE did it earlier saying that the tories were going to get ‘stepmomed’. And you are one of the worst offenders Leon with your old man (well you’re 62) perviness.
It’s odious and disgusting objectification of women. Please both of you, and others, desist. Thank you.
Anecdata: colleague (politically engaged, has been following election news, anti-Tory) told me earlier "I've had enough of the election now. It's been going on too long. Just get it over with. Everyone's focused on the football now".
That's a problem for Tories hoping for swingback. How many people are examining their pained consciences ahead of next Thursday and awaiting the final head to head debate with bated breath before they make their final decision? I would contend very few. How many already have election fatigue?
Also a signifier of low turnout, if it's universal.
The England football is tonight not 9pm tomorrow
For the avoidance of doubt that wasn't the point.
How likely is it that England will be out before next Thursday?
In all seriousness someone should tell starmer to just give up on humour. It’s not him. He’s desperately bad at it to a pathological extent
He should lean in to his boringness. So he’s boring. So what. Just be competent and don’t go on tv too much. Don’t do chat shows. We will cope. We had a genuinely funny and rizzy PM in Boris and that didn’t pan out so good
This also confirms that Starmer didn’t “laugh his pretty wife into bed”. So it must have been *something else*
I don't at all rule out that a lot of these people are genuinely witty in real life.
Presumably they’re ‘surprisingly down to earth’ as well.
My lad has applied for me to cast a proxy vote on his behalf (for Labour), but I've not had any sort of notification. Should I expect any, or do I just simply go to the polling station and say I'm voting on his behalf, whereupon they check their records and say, "Ah yes, Mr Enjineeya, go ahead"?
I’m getting really tired of the sexualisation of women by men on this site. @TSE did it earlier saying that the tories were going to get ‘stepmomed’. And you are one of the worst offenders Leon with your old man (well you’re 62) perviness.
It’s odious and disgusting objectification of women. Please both of you, and others, desist. Thank you.
ISTR it being less than five days ago you declared that SKS was 'hot'.
Yes, looks like Sunak has at least now kept the Tories second on votes and seats most likely.
Can he cut the likely Labour majority though in the last week of the campaign?
21 points behind with 9 days to go - quite a challenge and while I'm prepared to accept there has been a small move back from Reform to Conservative, we son't know how tactical voting will play out if at all let alone those who have already voted by post.
Jenkins saying very clearly that he had absolutely no idea of any legal responsibilities on him as an expert witness.
Either he's an extremely accomplished liar, or an utter and complete idiot. And whichever prosecutors that utilised him in the role, over a number of years, must have known which of the two things applies.
..The inquiry is shown a document annotated by Jenkins, from 2013, relating to a case against sub-postmistress Kim Wylie. That document contained a lengthy declaration setting out the legal obligations on being an expert witness. Underneath it, Jenkins wrote: "Standard stuff. No comment required." He clarifies to the inquiry lawyer that he meant "I had seen similar stuff before... I didn't think it (those obligations) applied to me, wrongly"...
A lot of gains being realised I imagine. Lots of talk when it became No 1 company about a bubble and then loads of publicity, much more than before that milestone, will have spooked people on nice gains.
People still around the market experienced the tech bubble so hopefully more cautious. I remember the head of marketing for one of the top tech funds walking in during the tech bubble to give a fund update to our floor and telling us it was probably time to start selling or taking the gains as the IFAs had started buying it (we had provided most of the early investment so they were v friendly). I’m sure there are IFAs telling their clients about this wonder stock Nvidia this week…
As I understand it fund managers are judged on relatively short term metrics. This means that if they havent been filling clients boots with Nvidia they would be in trouble.
This means more buyers and a higher price for Nvidia and the strong performance means they pile in more.
So up and up we go. Until...See Cisco circa 2001 for futther information.
"Metropolitan Police sent information on five more officers over betting allegations
The Gambling Commission has sent information on five more Metropolitan Police officers to the force over the election betting scandal. They are alleged to have placed bets relating to the timing of the general election."
I’m getting really tired of the sexualisation of women by men on this site. @TSE did it earlier saying that the tories were going to get ‘stepmomed’. And you are one of the worst offenders Leon with your old man (well you’re 62) perviness.
It’s odious and disgusting objectification of women. Please both of you, and others, desist. Thank you.
ISTR it being less than five days ago you declared that SKS was 'hot'.
It’s the highly sexual innuendos to which I’m referring
“Yes. You've been wondering that constantly on here for over a year. Keep wondering. How the hell do you get paid for this? One hopes one might stumble upon an original, let alone coherent, thought. It's like watching a toddler try to explain quantum physics with finger paint”
But then you decided that my unoriginal and incoherent opinion was so childish and unimportant you went back and wrote an entirely different reaction here:
“Oh, you wonder if Starmer is going to become extremely unpopular very quickly? That’s adorable. It's like wondering if a fish is going to get wet. The British public don't accidentally elect anyone. They knew exactly what they are doing, just like when they buy a crap sandwich at Pret. And as for looking on in horror let's not pretend we're surprised when the honeymoon phase ends. It’s politics. Not everyone can "surprise on the upside" like you so memorably predicted of Liz Truss.
Let's indulge this fantasy that the British electorate, after all they've recently endured from their elected representatives, are suddenly going to clutch their pearls and swoon into disillusionment the moment Starmer says something. If we’re really going to dive into this alternate universe where voters are a fickle bunch of horrified onlookers, let’s do it right. We’ll need fainting couches on every street corner and smelling salts in every home.
Reading your drivel is like watching a monkey solve a Rubik's cube—entertainingly improbable yet utterly pointless.”
Maybe you should set up your own YouTube channel called “why we should ignore Leon’s pointless views” and do half hour lectures every three days on this subject which you then take on a national tour of empty cinemas you rent at great expense while wearing an IGNORE LEON tee shirt like some kind of Steve Bray but with LEON IS POINTLESS tattooed on your fucking tiny forehead
Yes, looks like Sunak has at least now kept the Tories second on votes and seats most likely.
Can he cut the likely Labour majority though in the last week of the campaign?
First question. No. Farage has done that for him.
Second question. Yes. Labour are blowing the last week of this campaign by being too passive - aggressive Sunak and Cons can make real inroads into Labours lead now, if Labour remain so ineptly defensive is my estimation.
I’m getting really tired of the sexualisation of women by men on this site. @TSE did it earlier saying that the tories were going to get ‘stepmomed’. And you are one of the worst offenders Leon with your old man (well you’re 62) perviness.
It’s odious and disgusting objectification of women. Please both of you, and others, desist. Thank you.
ISTR it being less than five days ago you declared that SKS was 'hot'.
It’s the highly sexual innuendos to which I’m referring
Every time you complain about innuendos, TSE is going to give you one.
Yes, looks like Sunak has at least now kept the Tories second on votes and seats most likely.
Can he cut the likely Labour majority though in the last week of the campaign?
First question. No. Farage has done that for him.
Second question. Yes. Labour are blowing the last week of this campaign by being too passive - aggressive Sunak and Cons can make real inroads into Labours lead now, if Labour remain so ineptly defensive is my estimation.
If Starmer was a football manager he would be Steve Clarke. If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.
I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.
So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...
It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.
It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.
I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.
They may have reasons but are they valid in the sense of a need to claim asylum in the UK? E.g. not speaking French so would prefer to be in England should not be a valid reason.
Everyone seems to be missing the point.
It does not matter whether he has a valid reason for coming here. He probably doesn't. He is just on the run from one country to the next. That is the whole point. Many/most of these people don't.
The whole point of my reply to Leon was it is naively simplistic to just say tow the boats back or say but France is safe. They are risking their lives to come here so they will continue trying. The reasons for doing so are complex.
So saying stuff like tow them back or France is safe might make us feel good but it solves nothing whatsoever does it?
I don't know what the solution is.
There are many issues. I think most people are united that they don't want anyone to risk their lives crossing the channel in a dingy. For some its about avoiding loss of life. For others it about avoiding having to deal with asylum seekers at all. How do you stop it? Starmer has a plan (apparently). Sunak has a stupid plan.
Starmer has absolutely no plan. If you examine his alleged “plan” its just a warmed over version of everything the Tories have tried already - give the French more money, recruit special border police, blah blah blah, all a load of bollocks
The only solutions to this are unpleasant. Tow the boats back AND Rwanda. A double deterrent. People might die but people are dying already and if we succeed we can actually stop the dying
Also this has to be done because global migration movements are going to worsen for the short-medium term future and unless we accept we let in everyone and our entire country changes in a few years then we have to stop them. And if a humane government doesn’t stop them, then an inhumane government will be elected to do the job
Why should we be interested in your 'plan' to stop the boats? It's a complex issue and you don't have the knowledge or skillset. Better to stop banging on about it and just wait and see what PM Starmer does. That's what's important. Not long now.
I picture you saying this in that strangulated minor-golf-club-member driving-glove-wearing retired accountant voice just before you listen to some more toe tapping live music in an open air terrace in Tenerife
My lad has applied for me to cast a proxy vote on his behalf (for Labour), but I've not had any sort of notification. Should I expect any, or do I just simply go to the polling station and say I'm voting on his behalf, whereupon they check their records and say, "Ah yes, Mr Enjineeya, go ahead"?
You’d normally receive a proxy card . It might be best to ring the council to see whether it’s been sent out .
My lad has applied for me to cast a proxy vote on his behalf (for Labour), but I've not had any sort of notification. Should I expect any, or do I just simply go to the polling station and say I'm voting on his behalf, whereupon they check their records and say, "Ah yes, Mr Enjineeya, go ahead"?
Yes, if a proxy has been appointed on your behalf, you and the proxy both get a letter of confirmation, shortly afterwards. And then poll cards accordingly.
Give your council electoral registration department a ring
Yes, looks like Sunak has at least now kept the Tories second on votes and seats most likely.
Can he cut the likely Labour majority though in the last week of the campaign?
First question. No. Farage has done that for him.
Second question. Yes. Labour are blowing the last week of this campaign by being too passive - aggressive Sunak and Cons can make real inroads into Labours lead now, if Labour remain so ineptly defensive is my estimation.
If Starmer was a football manager he would be Steve Clarke. If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
Ole Gunnar Solskaer.
Winning champions league goal = furlough.
Bad performance as manager due to his own shortcomings but terrible planning and situation left by predecessors = bad performance as PM due to his own shortcomings but terrible planning and situation left by predecessors.
Anecdata: colleague (politically engaged, has been following election news, anti-Tory) told me earlier "I've had enough of the election now. It's been going on too long. Just get it over with. Everyone's focused on the football now".
That's a problem for Tories hoping for swingback. How many people are examining their pained consciences ahead of next Thursday and awaiting the final head to head debate with bated breath before they make their final decision? I would contend very few. How many already have election fatigue?
Also a signifier of low turnout, if it's universal.
The England football is tonight not 9pm tomorrow
For the avoidance of doubt that wasn't the point.
How likely is it that England will be out before next Thursday?
Good question. So we're through to the last 16 but tonight determines against whom.
If we end up runners up we play Germany on Saturday. So we would be out of the competition in plenty of time before the election. Maybe enough for people to refocus on politics.
If we come third we play Portugal on Monday (evens whether we win that) or Romania on Tuesday (good chance of progressing).
If we win the group we play any one of a wide range of teams: Austria (on current form we lose), Romania (win), Belgium (probably lose), Slovakia (win), Czechia (probably win).
So I reckon there's a decent chance we are still in it at the start of next week, if not by election day. But for the electorate to refocus their attention in time we really need to be knocked out this weekend.
Yes, looks like Sunak has at least now kept the Tories second on votes and seats most likely.
Can he cut the likely Labour majority though in the last week of the campaign?
First question. No. Farage has done that for him.
Second question. Yes. Labour are blowing the last week of this campaign by being too passive - aggressive Sunak and Cons can make real inroads into Labours lead now, if Labour remain so ineptly defensive is my estimation.
If Starmer was a football manager he would be Steve Clarke. If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.
I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.
So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...
It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.
It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.
I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.
They may have reasons but are they valid in the sense of a need to claim asylum in the UK? E.g. not speaking French so would prefer to be in England should not be a valid reason.
Everyone seems to be missing the point.
It does not matter whether he has a valid reason for coming here. He probably doesn't. He is just on the run from one country to the next. That is the whole point. Many/most of these people don't.
The whole point of my reply to Leon was it is naively simplistic to just say tow the boats back or say but France is safe. They are risking their lives to come here so they will continue trying. The reasons for doing so are complex.
So saying stuff like tow them back or France is safe might make us feel good but it solves nothing whatsoever does it?
I don't know what the solution is.
There are many issues. I think most people are united that they don't want anyone to risk their lives crossing the channel in a dingy. For some its about avoiding loss of life. For others it about avoiding having to deal with asylum seekers at all. How do you stop it? Starmer has a plan (apparently). Sunak has a stupid plan.
Starmer has absolutely no plan. If you examine his alleged “plan” its just a warmed over version of everything the Tories have tried already - give the French more money, recruit special border police, blah blah blah, all a load of bollocks
The only solutions to this are unpleasant. Tow the boats back AND Rwanda. A double deterrent. People might die but people are dying already and if we succeed we can actually stop the dying
Also this has to be done because global migration movements are going to worsen for the short-medium term future and unless we accept we let in everyone and our entire country changes in a few years then we have to stop them. And if a humane government doesn’t stop them, then an inhumane government will be elected to do the job
Why should we be interested in your 'plan' to stop the boats? It's a complex issue and you don't have the knowledge or skillset. Better to stop banging on about it and just wait and see what PM Starmer does. That's what's important. Not long now.
I picture you saying this in that strangulated minor-golf-club-member driving-glove-wearing retired accountant voice just before you listen to some more toe tapping live music in an open air terrace in Tenerife
Lives in Hampstead and holidays in Tenerife lol. You can take the boy out of south yorkshire but..
"Metropolitan Police sent information on five more officers over betting allegations
The Gambling Commission has sent information on five more Metropolitan Police officers to the force over the election betting scandal. They are alleged to have placed bets relating to the timing of the general election."
I ‘hope’ said police persons are actually somewhere near the action. I’d hate to think any one was prevented from having an innocent flutter because of their job.
This surely confirms Farage’s fuck up. What an idiot
He could have just sidestepped the question; he walked into an obvious trap
Not quite true. He was invited to flip flop on something has has often said he believes in for the last decade, Problem is, even if Farage is right - he absolutely isn’t by the way - that EU expansion paved the way to war, it would be far too subtle and complex to convince the British electorate that evil Putin is our Uncle Vlad.
To be fair, stand up comedy is so poor these days, that with a little bit of routining it could pass for a Live at the Apollo set. I mean Nish Kumar has made a career out of shouting BREXIT and RACIST.
My lad has applied for me to cast a proxy vote on his behalf (for Labour), but I've not had any sort of notification. Should I expect any, or do I just simply go to the polling station and say I'm voting on his behalf, whereupon they check their records and say, "Ah yes, Mr Enjineeya, go ahead"?
I used to have a proxy vote for ny brother, years ago, when he was in the army, I know you need photo ID now, but pretty sure I just use to go to the polling station, and as you say, they have it on their records, if you are in any doubt, speak to the labour party, I'm sure they will be only to pleased to put you straight, considering your son wishes to vote for them
Yes, looks like Sunak has at least now kept the Tories second on votes and seats most likely.
Can he cut the likely Labour majority though in the last week of the campaign?
First question. No. Farage has done that for him.
Second question. Yes. Labour are blowing the last week of this campaign by being too passive - aggressive Sunak and Cons can make real inroads into Labours lead now, if Labour remain so ineptly defensive is my estimation.
If Starmer was a football manager he would be Steve Clarke. If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
"Metropolitan Police sent information on five more officers over betting allegations
The Gambling Commission has sent information on five more Metropolitan Police officers to the force over the election betting scandal. They are alleged to have placed bets relating to the timing of the general election."
I ‘hope’ said police persons are actually somewhere near the action. I’d hate to think any one was prevented from having an innocent flutter because of their job.
“The officers are based on the Royalty and Specialist Command, the Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection Command and the Central West Basic Command Unit. None of them work in a close protection role."
So close, but not immediate. Somebody has been blabbing. This in when you get into tricky territory. My mate at the office say his mate works with Sunak and Sunak was overhead saying July....is that too different from my mate says he has a mate working at the stables and such and such a horse is running crazy good times.
This surely confirms Farage’s fuck up. What an idiot
He could have just sidestepped the question; he walked into an obvious trap
It's more than just a few points in the polls, though. It absolutely ends any chance of a post-election merger (RefUK won't get enough seats) and hopefully ends all possibility of Farage being welcomed into the Conservative ranks even if Patel or Braverman get the leadership gig.
It's all well and good debating geopolitics from a realpolitk perspective on an anoymous internet forum or in the even greater anonymity of an international relations department of a second rate university.
But Farage came out with comments supportive of a hostile foreign power at a time when we're in a (proxy) war with them, at a time when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, our allies, are paying in blood to free their country of Russian invaders. And he did this on national TV.
In the unlikely event Farage did worm his way into the Conservative party, you can imagine plenty of moderates quitting the party in disgust, or crossing over to the Lib Dems.
Farage's gaffe may well have ended his political ambitions and saved the Conservative party at the same time.
Anecdata: colleague (politically engaged, has been following election news, anti-Tory) told me earlier "I've had enough of the election now. It's been going on too long. Just get it over with. Everyone's focused on the football now".
That's a problem for Tories hoping for swingback. How many people are examining their pained consciences ahead of next Thursday and awaiting the final head to head debate with bated breath before they make their final decision? I would contend very few. How many already have election fatigue?
Also a signifier of low turnout, if it's universal.
The England football is tonight not 9pm tomorrow
For the avoidance of doubt that wasn't the point.
How likely is it that England will be out before next Thursday?
Good question. So we're through to the last 16 but tonight determines against whom.
If we end up runners up we play Germany on Saturday. So we would be out of the competition in plenty of time before the election. Maybe enough for people to refocus on politics.
If we come third we play Portugal on Monday (evens whether we win that) or Romania on Tuesday (good chance of progressing).
If we win the group we play any one of a wide range of teams: Austria (on current form we lose), Romania (win), Belgium (probably lose), Slovakia (win), Czechia (probably win).
So I reckon there's a decent chance we are still in it at the start of next week, if not by election day. But for the electorate to refocus their attention in time we really need to be knocked out this weekend.
Doesnt say much for the electorate does it to be fair.
Yes, looks like Sunak has at least now kept the Tories second on votes and seats most likely.
Can he cut the likely Labour majority though in the last week of the campaign?
First question. No. Farage has done that for him.
Second question. Yes. Labour are blowing the last week of this campaign by being too passive - aggressive Sunak and Cons can make real inroads into Labours lead now, if Labour remain so ineptly defensive is my estimation.
If Starmer was a football manager he would be Steve Clarke. If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
When a party is heading for a majority of 264 seats with 39.5% of the vote, as Electoral Calculus is currently forecasting, you know they must be distributing their vote very efficiently.
Labour aren't really distributing any votes. It's more that their opponents are splitting their votes very effectively.
Yup. The biggest factor is the RefCon split, and there's not very much Starmer can do about that.
(I'm not sure that there's much Reform or the Conservatives can do about it either in the short term, but hey ho.)
So Starmer might as well get on with governing well. And the 100 or so flukiest Labour MPs had best enjoy the ride.
It's good for SKS, I think. If he gets (say) a 250 majority he can mentally split it into 2 parts. A core majority of 150 and a dispensable frothy add-on of another 100. Rather like a pint of bitter with a big head on it. The 'head' he can use when spending political capital on the tough 'to govern is to choose' decisions he will need to take if he is to be a radical reforming PM in the progressive tradition. Normally a PM would have to be spending some of their real and actual majority when doing the hard controversial stuff. They'd be drinking their beer as it were. But Starmer can just pour away the head. He won't need to touch his ale until all of that has gone. Very nice position to be in.
And I think Starmer is going to need all the help he can get because the hand he's been dealt with when he enters Number 10 is just about the worst hand possible - seemingly with a few cards that aren't even part of the game..
I think he's inheriting a great political legacy and a terrible economic one. How long will it take for the second to destroy the first? That is the question. He's well placed for 2 terms, imo, but it's hard (and largely pointless) to predict out that far. I don't see Labour stuffing up to anything like the extent the Cons have since 2016 (and esp these last couple of years), in fact I expect them to govern well, but global events/factors tend to be more influential on us than the actions of our domestic governments, and we have no idea what they will be.
A great political legacy? Have you become a Brexit convert?
Ha, no, but sort of. Brexit has (amazingly) delivered a tangible benefit. The ruination of the Tory Party. And this is Starmer's golden political legacy. The gift of a huge majority yet with an expectations bar (because it's been set by those ruined Tories) that is so low he would need to be beyond terrible at the job to fail to clear it. Talk about being in the right place at the right time. Two terms nailed on. The chance to run the UK for a decade or more. Wow. But it is such a shame he can't tell a good joke and crack us all up. That could spoil everything. He needs to work on that.
This surely confirms Farage’s fuck up. What an idiot
He could have just sidestepped the question; he walked into an obvious trap
It's more than just a few points in the polls, though. It absolutely ends any chance of a post-election merger (RefUK won't get enough seats) and hopefully ends all possibility of Farage being welcomed into the Conservative ranks even if Patel or Braverman get the leadership gig.
It's all well and good debating geopolitics from a realpolitk perspective on an anoymous internet forum or in the even greater anonymity of an international relations department of a second rate university.
But Farage came out with comments supportive of a hostile foreign power at a time when we're in a (proxy) war with them, at a time when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, our allies, are paying in blood to free their country of Russian invaders. And he did this on national TV.
In the unlikely event Farage did worm his way into the Conservative party, you can imagine plenty of moderates quitting the party in disgust, or crossing over to the Lib Dems.
Farage's gaffe may well have ended his political ambitions and saved the Conservative party at the same time.
Yes. It was possibly the biggest gaffe of the campaign - with some stiff competition from the Tories
As others on PB have noted it sounded like a MAGA talking point. The kind of stuff you can get away with in America but not in Europe and certainly not in the UK
First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Will be interesting to see if any other pollsters pick up this easing back of REF support.
Be interesting if the pollsters with the larger Reform shares find it. Redfield yesterday didn't of course
And we said “patience” yesterday, the Reform collapse is coming.
As so many PBers pointed out on here, Reform were taking most from Con but were taking Lab too, Red wallers etc. The froth on top of high Ref polls could go Lab, it won’t just be all Ref to Con and closing gap to Lab over coming week. Lab 43 or 44% PV and 13M votes is very much on with the Reform crash.
When a party is heading for a majority of 264 seats with 39.5% of the vote, as Electoral Calculus is currently forecasting, you know they must be distributing their vote very efficiently.
Labour aren't really distributing any votes. It's more that their opponents are splitting their votes very effectively.
Yup. The biggest factor is the RefCon split, and there's not very much Starmer can do about that.
(I'm not sure that there's much Reform or the Conservatives can do about it either in the short term, but hey ho.)
So Starmer might as well get on with governing well. And the 100 or so flukiest Labour MPs had best enjoy the ride.
It's good for SKS, I think. If he gets (say) a 250 majority he can mentally split it into 2 parts. A core majority of 150 and a dispensable frothy add-on of another 100. Rather like a pint of bitter with a big head on it. The 'head' he can use when spending political capital on the tough 'to govern is to choose' decisions he will need to take if he is to be a radical reforming PM in the progressive tradition. Normally a PM would have to be spending some of their real and actual majority when doing the hard controversial stuff. They'd be drinking their beer as it were. But Starmer can just pour away the head. He won't need to touch his ale until all of that has gone. Very nice position to be in.
And I think Starmer is going to need all the help he can get because the hand he's been dealt with when he enters Number 10 is just about the worst hand possible - seemingly with a few cards that aren't even part of the game..
I think he's inheriting a great political legacy and a terrible economic one. How long will it take for the second to destroy the first? That is the question. He's well placed for 2 terms, imo, but it's hard (and largely pointless) to predict out that far. I don't see Labour stuffing up to anything like the extent the Cons have since 2016 (and esp these last couple of years), in fact I expect them to govern well, but global events/factors tend to be more influential on us than the actions of our domestic governments, and we have no idea what they will be.
A great political legacy? Have you become a Brexit convert?
Ha, no, but sort of. Brexit has (amazingly) delivered a tangible benefit. The ruination of the Tory Party. And this is Starmer's golden political legacy. The gift of a huge majority yet with an expectations bar (because it's been set by those ruined Tories) that is so low he would need to be beyond terrible at the job to fail to clear it. Talk about being in the right place at the right time. Two terms nailed on. The chance to run the UK for a decade or more. Wow. But it is such a shame he can't tell a good joke and crack us all up. That could spoil everything. He needs to work on that.
Why are you so weirdly hurt and defensive when people point out that starmer is definitely not a comedian and tells cringey jokes?
Quite odd. He’s about to win a massive majority (as you note). What does it matter if people are a bit mean about his stiff persona?
I had to watch that through my fingers and it still hurt. He has that deeply cringe strangulated petit booji toe-tapping @kinabalu voice tone that Clarkson sometimes mimics
What makes him think that is funny? On what planet is that funny? “And then - get this - the dog started barking”
That’s worse than anything Truss did. Entire star systems have collapsed into white dwarfs thanks to cringe force less impactful than that
He’s fucking weird. He doesn’t dream. He refers to himself in the third person. He thinks a dog barking is “funny”. Omfg
I wonder if starmer is going to become extremely unpopular very quickly as people look on in horror at what they accidentally elected
Well if you're looking for the sort of pungent 'Jim Davidson on a roll' gaggery that's guaranteed to crease up the punters in the Dog'n'Whistle you know where your vote should be going. To Nige and Reform.
Promise me you'll follow your heart and do that.
Starmer is a fucking freak but he’s still getting my vote
Well he isn't, obviously. And lack of the technique and pizazz to do effective live comedy hardly maps to "fucking freak".
What is this obsession you have with politicians needing to be talented comics? I find it a bit bizarre.
Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.
I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.
So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...
It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.
It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.
I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.
They may have reasons but are they valid in the sense of a need to claim asylum in the UK? E.g. not speaking French so would prefer to be in England should not be a valid reason.
Everyone seems to be missing the point.
It does not matter whether he has a valid reason for coming here. He probably doesn't. He is just on the run from one country to the next. That is the whole point. Many/most of these people don't.
The whole point of my reply to Leon was it is naively simplistic to just say tow the boats back or say but France is safe. They are risking their lives to come here so they will continue trying. The reasons for doing so are complex.
So saying stuff like tow them back or France is safe might make us feel good but it solves nothing whatsoever does it?
I don't know what the solution is.
There are many issues. I think most people are united that they don't want anyone to risk their lives crossing the channel in a dingy. For some its about avoiding loss of life. For others it about avoiding having to deal with asylum seekers at all. How do you stop it? Starmer has a plan (apparently). Sunak has a stupid plan.
Starmer has absolutely no plan. If you examine his alleged “plan” its just a warmed over version of everything the Tories have tried already - give the French more money, recruit special border police, blah blah blah, all a load of bollocks
The only solutions to this are unpleasant. Tow the boats back AND Rwanda. A double deterrent. People might die but people are dying already and if we succeed we can actually stop the dying
Also this has to be done because global migration movements are going to worsen for the short-medium term future and unless we accept we let in everyone and our entire country changes in a few years then we have to stop them. And if a humane government doesn’t stop them, then an inhumane government will be elected to do the job
Why should we be interested in your 'plan' to stop the boats? It's a complex issue and you don't have the knowledge or skillset. Better to stop banging on about it and just wait and see what PM Starmer does. That's what's important. Not long now.
Indeed it is a complex issue. People say the Rwanda scheme failed. But Rwanda managed to screw £300 million out of a desperate UK without having to host a single asylum seeker. That's definitely a success for Rwanda.
First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Will be interesting to see if any other pollsters pick up this easing back of REF support.
Be interesting if the pollsters with the larger Reform shares find it. Redfield yesterday didn't of course
And we said “patience” yesterday, the Reform collapse is coming.
As so many PBers pointed out on here, Reform were taking most from Con but were taking Lab too, Red wallers etc. The froth on top of high Ref polls could go Lab, it won’t just be all Ref to Con and closing gap to Lab over coming week. Lab 43 or 44% PV and 13M votes is very much on with the Reform crash.
A moderate reform fall wont help the tories much. Much of that support will go to labour or stay at home.
This surely confirms Farage’s fuck up. What an idiot
He could have just sidestepped the question; he walked into an obvious trap
It's more than just a few points in the polls, though. It absolutely ends any chance of a post-election merger (RefUK won't get enough seats) and hopefully ends all possibility of Farage being welcomed into the Conservative ranks even if Patel or Braverman get the leadership gig.
It's all well and good debating geopolitics from a realpolitk perspective on an anoymous internet forum or in the even greater anonymity of an international relations department of a second rate university.
But Farage came out with comments supportive of a hostile foreign power at a time when we're in a (proxy) war with them, at a time when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, our allies, are paying in blood to free their country of Russian invaders. And he did this on national TV.
In the unlikely event Farage did worm his way into the Conservative party, you can imagine plenty of moderates quitting the party in disgust, or crossing over to the Lib Dems.
Farage's gaffe may well have ended his political ambitions and saved the Conservative party at the same time.
As an over interpretation of one poll this takes the biscuit.
FPT: In the US, in recent decades, most vote fraud has been committed with postal ballots, for a simple reason: they need not be secret. I suspect the same applies in the UK.
So, if I wanted to "rig" an election in the UK, I would encourage the use of postal ballots, and I would concentrate on areas where the voters, or their parents and grandparents, come from places where vote fraud is common.
This surely confirms Farage’s fuck up. What an idiot
He could have just sidestepped the question; he walked into an obvious trap
It's more than just a few points in the polls, though. It absolutely ends any chance of a post-election merger (RefUK won't get enough seats) and hopefully ends all possibility of Farage being welcomed into the Conservative ranks even if Patel or Braverman get the leadership gig.
It's all well and good debating geopolitics from a realpolitk perspective on an anoymous internet forum or in the even greater anonymity of an international relations department of a second rate university.
But Farage came out with comments supportive of a hostile foreign power at a time when we're in a (proxy) war with them, at a time when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, our allies, are paying in blood to free their country of Russian invaders. And he did this on national TV.
In the unlikely event Farage did worm his way into the Conservative party, you can imagine plenty of moderates quitting the party in disgust, or crossing over to the Lib Dems.
Farage's gaffe may well have ended his political ambitions and saved the Conservative party at the same time.
Yes. It was possibly the biggest gaffe of the campaign - with some stiff competition from the Tories
As others on PB have noted it sounded like a MAGA talking point. The kind of stuff you can get away with in America but not in Europe and certainly not in the UK
Crass
I think it might go down as one of the all time gaffes.
There's a parallel universe where Farage picked up another 2-3% over the last couple of weeks of the campaign, scored 7+ seats, merged with the Tories, became LOTO and would be challenging a tired Kier Starmer in 2029 for PM, after 5 years of tax rises, high immigration, high unemployment (AI job losses really beginning to bite), and general economic malaise. And I reckon we might just have had PM Nige in 2029.
This surely confirms Farage’s fuck up. What an idiot
He could have just sidestepped the question; he walked into an obvious trap
It's more than just a few points in the polls, though. It absolutely ends any chance of a post-election merger (RefUK won't get enough seats) and hopefully ends all possibility of Farage being welcomed into the Conservative ranks even if Patel or Braverman get the leadership gig.
It's all well and good debating geopolitics from a realpolitk perspective on an anoymous internet forum or in the even greater anonymity of an international relations department of a second rate university.
But Farage came out with comments supportive of a hostile foreign power at a time when we're in a (proxy) war with them, at a time when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, our allies, are paying in blood to free their country of Russian invaders. And he did this on national TV.
In the unlikely event Farage did worm his way into the Conservative party, you can imagine plenty of moderates quitting the party in disgust, or crossing over to the Lib Dems.
Farage's gaffe may well have ended his political ambitions and saved the Conservative party at the same time.
As an over interpretation of one poll this takes the biscuit.
It is two (with one contemporary poll showing an increase)
So too early to say, but could be indicative of peaking and swingback starting as the ballot paper starts to concentrate minds.
"Metropolitan Police sent information on five more officers over betting allegations
The Gambling Commission has sent information on five more Metropolitan Police officers to the force over the election betting scandal. They are alleged to have placed bets relating to the timing of the general election."
I ‘hope’ said police persons are actually somewhere near the action. I’d hate to think any one was prevented from having an innocent flutter because of their job.
“The officers are based on the Royalty and Specialist Command, the Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection Command and the Central West Basic Command Unit. None of them work in a close protection role."
So close, but not immediate. Somebody has been blabbing. This in when you get into tricky territory. My mate at the office say his mate works with Sunak and Sunak was overhead saying July....is that too different from my mate says he has a mate working at the stables and such and such a horse is running crazy good times.
Yes, because the Police have an ethical responsibility to uphold the law and be responsible, especially if they're in a position of trust like Diplomatic Protection etc
Breaking that trust for personal gain ought to be considered gross misconduct IMHO.
FPT: In the US, in recent decades, most vote fraud has been committed with postal ballots, for a simple reason: they need not be secret. I suspect the same applies in the UK.
So, if I wanted to "rig" an election in the UK, I would encourage the use of postal ballots, and I would concentrate on areas where the voters, or their parents and grandparents, come from places where vote fraud is common.
Imagine if opinion polls were banned during elections. The suspense now, and the shock come election night.
Parties would still have their own private polling and canvas returns. So we’d be here interpreting what internal party messaging was saying, or where the party leaders were visiting.
I think they should ban election polling, for the drama.
This surely confirms Farage’s fuck up. What an idiot
He could have just sidestepped the question; he walked into an obvious trap
It's more than just a few points in the polls, though. It absolutely ends any chance of a post-election merger (RefUK won't get enough seats) and hopefully ends all possibility of Farage being welcomed into the Conservative ranks even if Patel or Braverman get the leadership gig.
It's all well and good debating geopolitics from a realpolitk perspective on an anoymous internet forum or in the even greater anonymity of an international relations department of a second rate university.
But Farage came out with comments supportive of a hostile foreign power at a time when we're in a (proxy) war with them, at a time when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, our allies, are paying in blood to free their country of Russian invaders. And he did this on national TV.
In the unlikely event Farage did worm his way into the Conservative party, you can imagine plenty of moderates quitting the party in disgust, or crossing over to the Lib Dems.
Farage's gaffe may well have ended his political ambitions and saved the Conservative party at the same time.
Yes. It was possibly the biggest gaffe of the campaign - with some stiff competition from the Tories
As others on PB have noted it sounded like a MAGA talking point. The kind of stuff you can get away with in America but not in Europe and certainly not in the UK
Crass
I think it might go down as one of the all time gaffes.
There's a parallel universe where Farage picked up another 2-3% over the last couple of weeks of the campaign, scored 7+ seats, merged with the Tories, became LOTO and would be challenging a tired Kier Starmer in 2029 for PM, after 5 years of tax rises, high immigration, high unemployment (AI job losses really beginning to bite), and general economic malaise. And I reckon we might just have had PM Nige in 2029.
FPT: In the US, in recent decades, most vote fraud has been committed with postal ballots, for a simple reason: they need not be secret. I suspect the same applies in the UK.
So, if I wanted to "rig" an election in the UK, I would encourage the use of postal ballots, and I would concentrate on areas where the voters, or their parents and grandparents, come from places where vote fraud is common.
And how would you manage to get control of sufficient votes to make more than a minor difference ?
This surely confirms Farage’s fuck up. What an idiot
He could have just sidestepped the question; he walked into an obvious trap
It's more than just a few points in the polls, though. It absolutely ends any chance of a post-election merger (RefUK won't get enough seats) and hopefully ends all possibility of Farage being welcomed into the Conservative ranks even if Patel or Braverman get the leadership gig.
It's all well and good debating geopolitics from a realpolitk perspective on an anoymous internet forum or in the even greater anonymity of an international relations department of a second rate university.
But Farage came out with comments supportive of a hostile foreign power at a time when we're in a (proxy) war with them, at a time when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, our allies, are paying in blood to free their country of Russian invaders. And he did this on national TV.
In the unlikely event Farage did worm his way into the Conservative party, you can imagine plenty of moderates quitting the party in disgust, or crossing over to the Lib Dems.
Farage's gaffe may well have ended his political ambitions and saved the Conservative party at the same time.
As an over interpretation of one poll this takes the biscuit.
I cannot imagine a world where staunch Conservatives, decent sorts like Big G, Casino and HYUFD accept Farage into their party or as their leader. Nor, I'm assuming, would they ever vote Reform.
That means that even if Farage does well in Clacton and spends the next 5 years banging the anti-immigration drum from the backbenches, 2029 will probably end up as a re-run of 2024 with the right wing vote split down the middle between Con and RefUK.
A better scenario would be the Conservatives getting their act together, understanding why they got a shellacking, becoming a decent centre-right opposition party, and consigning Farage and his lot to the dustbin by 2029.
Imagine if opinion polls were banned during elections. The suspense now, and the shock come election night.
Parties would still have their own private polling and canvas returns. So we’d be here interpreting what internal party messaging was saying, or where the party leaders were visiting.
I think they should ban election polling, for the drama.
Many countries ban polling close to the election . I don’t think we should get an outright ban even it adds to the drama !
Yes, looks like Sunak has at least now kept the Tories second on votes and seats most likely.
Can he cut the likely Labour majority though in the last week of the campaign?
First question. No. Farage has done that for him.
Second question. Yes. Labour are blowing the last week of this campaign by being too passive - aggressive Sunak and Cons can make real inroads into Labours lead now, if Labour remain so ineptly defensive is my estimation.
If Starmer was a football manager he would be Steve Clarke. If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
…suspending kit man, analyst, press officer, and Roxy the Receptionist for betting breaches.
Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.
C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.
I'm *bored* that Starmer is winning. Because he is being terribly boring and inoffensive. Where's the umph?
This bit is 'win the election' and barring a mega shock it's going to be a resounding success. Then, 5/7 onwards, he's PM. Will he be boring, cautious, ineffectual? Or will he be a good, maybe very good, PM who'll relax a bit more in public over time?
I hope and expect the second, but who knows? What I do know is that people writing him off on the basis he hasn't been a thrill-a-minute as Opposition Leader or in this GE campaign are mainly engaging in prejudice-informed guesswork.
There’s still the QT programme with Farage to come .
So that could be another moment of danger for Reform .
Alternatively it might be an opportunity to repair some of the possible damage . I suspect Farage is going to double down on what he said .
At his big rally the other day he was doubling down on this, complete with comedy over sized prop of an old headline where Boris had been reportedly said something very similar to Farage....so yes, he is giving it I was wise and saw this coming, rather than I am a useful idiot for Putin. If that washes is another matter.
Reposting from the last thread my suggested solution to the problems of the law on computer evidence -
Make failure to disclose exculpatory evidence a strict liability offence (as with eg breaches of health and safety regs), punishable by fines, and criminal prosecutions in the most egregious cases.
It would make prosecutors a great deal more scrupulous about discharging their legal responsibilities.
An easy win, offered free to the next Labour Justice Secretary.
(The alternative is spending years trying to come up with a fairer rule that's also practical.)
Or you use the Scottish approach that Computer Evidence is not by itself enough....
Disclosure has long been a problem in other cases not involving computer evidence, of course.
A mixture of tow back and Rwanda
Rwanda would certainly be more of a practical deterrent to rogue prosecutors than it's likely to be to asylum seekers. But where were you proposing to tow prosecutors back to ?
I’m getting really tired of the sexualisation of women by men on this site. @TSE did it earlier saying that the tories were going to get ‘stepmomed’. And you are one of the worst offenders Leon with your old man (well you’re 62) perviness.
It’s odious and disgusting objectification of women. Please both of you, and others, desist. Thank you.
There’s still the QT programme with Farage to come .
So that could be another moment of danger for Reform .
Alternatively it might be an opportunity to repair some of the possible damage . I suspect Farage is going to double down on what he said .
"Let's take some questions from the audience... we've got a lady from Ukraine, where is she, oh yes there you are. Daryna, what's your question please?" [there ensues an argument where Farage tells a refugee that Putin killed her twin brother because of Donald Tusk or something]
FPT: In the US, in recent decades, most vote fraud has been committed with postal ballots, for a simple reason: they need not be secret. I suspect the same applies in the UK.
So, if I wanted to "rig" an election in the UK, I would encourage the use of postal ballots, and I would concentrate on areas where the voters, or their parents and grandparents, come from places where vote fraud is common.
And how would you manage to get control of sufficient votes to make more than a minor difference ?
+ the reason why postal fraud works in the States is because it's the votes arriving after the election date that creates all the issues when things run late.
You don't get that in the UK because if your postal vote isn't in the hands of the correct people by 10pm on July 4th it doesn't count.
Reposting from the last thread my suggested solution to the problems of the law on computer evidence -
Make failure to disclose exculpatory evidence a strict liability offence (as with eg breaches of health and safety regs), punishable by fines, and criminal prosecutions in the most egregious cases.
It would make prosecutors a great deal more scrupulous about discharging their legal responsibilities.
An easy win, offered free to the next Labour Justice Secretary.
(The alternative is spending years trying to come up with a fairer rule that's also practical.)
Or you use the Scottish approach that Computer Evidence is not by itself enough....
Disclosure has long been a problem in other cases not involving computer evidence, of course.
A mixture of tow back and Rwanda
Rwanda would certainly be more of a practical deterrent to rogue prosecutors than it's likely to be to asylum seekers. But where were you proposing to tow prosecutors back to ?
International waters
There aren't any in the English Channel/La Manche. That's the killer.
Imagine if opinion polls were banned during elections. The suspense now, and the shock come election night.
Parties would still have their own private polling and canvas returns. So we’d be here interpreting what internal party messaging was saying, or where the party leaders were visiting.
I think they should ban election polling, for the drama.
Many countries ban polling close to the election . I don’t think we should get an outright ban even it adds to the drama !
The argument is that the opinion polls influence the voters unduly.
Which if it ends up as NOM because various Labour voters stay at home and various others dont vote tactically and vote libdem and green and sundry tories turn out because losing is one thing, 200 majorities for socialists is another, that might prove a valid point.
This surely confirms Farage’s fuck up. What an idiot
He could have just sidestepped the question; he walked into an obvious trap
It's more than just a few points in the polls, though. It absolutely ends any chance of a post-election merger (RefUK won't get enough seats) and hopefully ends all possibility of Farage being welcomed into the Conservative ranks even if Patel or Braverman get the leadership gig.
It's all well and good debating geopolitics from a realpolitk perspective on an anoymous internet forum or in the even greater anonymity of an international relations department of a second rate university.
But Farage came out with comments supportive of a hostile foreign power at a time when we're in a (proxy) war with them, at a time when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, our allies, are paying in blood to free their country of Russian invaders. And he did this on national TV.
In the unlikely event Farage did worm his way into the Conservative party, you can imagine plenty of moderates quitting the party in disgust, or crossing over to the Lib Dems.
Farage's gaffe may well have ended his political ambitions and saved the Conservative party at the same time.
Yes. It was possibly the biggest gaffe of the campaign - with some stiff competition from the Tories
As others on PB have noted it sounded like a MAGA talking point. The kind of stuff you can get away with in America but not in Europe and certainly not in the UK
Crass
Gaffe to me (perhaps wrongly) implies some mildly humorous misstep. Whereas this is something darker. Nigel - and indeed much of Reform - appear to be making no secret of their admiration for Putin: a man who is both a baddie morally and a major threat to the UK. It's not even a position where the UK might have to deal with some morally questionable dictator for the third world for its own wider purposes, or even if there is any internal constituency it is trying to placate; associating with Putin is AFAICS all downside.
It's a mystery to me. Personally I might be in the market for a low tax/low immigration socially conservative party. But not if it involves getting into bed with Putin. I don't see why any party would add that to their portfolio of beliefs.
Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.
C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.
I'm *bored* that Starmer is winning. Because he is being terribly boring and inoffensive. Where's the umph?
This bit is 'win the election' and barring a mega shock it's going to be a resounding success. Then, 5/7 onwards, he's PM. Will he be boring, cautious, ineffectual? Or will he be a good, maybe very good, PM who'll relax a bit more in public over time?
I hope and expect the second, but who knows? What I do know is that people writing him off on the basis he hasn't been a thrill-a-minute as Opposition Leader or in this GE campaign are mainly engaging in prejudice-informed guesswork.
No, we’re just mocking his cringe. In my comment immediately after my mockery (which seems to have upset so many of you so weirdly) I actually say This won’t matter as long as he learns from it. We don’t want or need him to be funny so he doesn’t have to try and he shouldn’t even try
After the last few years we will take dull but competent if he can manage it. We all know he has a tough task (I expect him to fail but I genuinely hope he succeeds)
What we don’t want is an inept politician who also makes us cringe. That will be damaging. Quit the gags Sir Kir
This surely confirms Farage’s fuck up. What an idiot
He could have just sidestepped the question; he walked into an obvious trap
It's more than just a few points in the polls, though. It absolutely ends any chance of a post-election merger (RefUK won't get enough seats) and hopefully ends all possibility of Farage being welcomed into the Conservative ranks even if Patel or Braverman get the leadership gig.
It's all well and good debating geopolitics from a realpolitk perspective on an anoymous internet forum or in the even greater anonymity of an international relations department of a second rate university.
But Farage came out with comments supportive of a hostile foreign power at a time when we're in a (proxy) war with them, at a time when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, our allies, are paying in blood to free their country of Russian invaders. And he did this on national TV.
In the unlikely event Farage did worm his way into the Conservative party, you can imagine plenty of moderates quitting the party in disgust, or crossing over to the Lib Dems.
Farage's gaffe may well have ended his political ambitions and saved the Conservative party at the same time.
As an over interpretation of one poll this takes the biscuit.
It is two (with one contemporary poll showing an increase)
So too early to say, but could be indicative of peaking and swingback starting as the ballot paper starts to concentrate minds.
There’s still the QT programme with Farage to come .
So that could be another moment of danger for Reform .
Alternatively it might be an opportunity to repair some of the possible damage . I suspect Farage is going to double down on what he said .
"Let's take some questions from the audience... we've got a lady from Ukraine, where is she, oh yes there you are. Daryna, what's your question please?" [there ensues an argument where Farage tells a refugee that Putin killed her twin brother because of Donald Tusk or something]
Nailed on the sort of stunt BBC will pull, complete with tear jerking backstory, relative tortured by the Russian, son who died on the front line...then next up a trans-right activist....then an migrant who came to the UK fleeing war on a small boat and now an internationally renowned brain surgeon.
Yes, looks like Sunak has at least now kept the Tories second on votes and seats most likely.
Can he cut the likely Labour majority though in the last week of the campaign?
First question. No. Farage has done that for him.
Second question. Yes. Labour are blowing the last week of this campaign by being too passive - aggressive Sunak and Cons can make real inroads into Labours lead now, if Labour remain so ineptly defensive is my estimation.
If Starmer was a football manager he would be Steve Clarke. If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
Seems like SKS knows a lot more about being popular than PB since his approval ratings have consistently gone up throughout the campaign. Time to accept that his judgment of the public mood has been far more on point for the last three years than many here.
There’s still the QT programme with Farage to come .
So that could be another moment of danger for Reform .
Alternatively it might be an opportunity to repair some of the possible damage . I suspect Farage is going to double down on what he said .
"Let's take some questions from the audience... we've got a lady from Ukraine, where is she, oh yes there you are. Daryna, what's your question please?" [there ensues an argument where Farage tells a refugee that Putin killed her twin brother because of Donald Tusk or something]
Nailed on the sort of stunt BBC will pull, complete with tear jerking backstory, relative tortured by the Russian, son who died on the front line...then next up a trans-right activist....then an migrant who came to the UK fleeing war on a small boat and now an internationally renowned brain surgeon.
Upon which they tut at the Putin stuff and remember why they were so angry at the Tories for letting this loose on their watch* and vote for Fargle anyway.
Point of order. It was let loose by Labours equality act but didnt get above the radar until the Tories were in power.
..The inquiry is shown written evidence from barrister Warwick Tatford, who acted for the Post Office in the trial of wrongly convicted sub-postmaster Seema Misra. Tatford wrote that he told Jenkins he was "under a duty to provide a full disclosure" of known Horizon errors and bugs to Misra's lawyers at the time of that case. Jenkins now says he has "no recollection of such a discussion", adding: "I don't believe it would have occurred."..
I'm not sure this 'I was an expert witness for years, but had no idea what that meant' line is going to hold up for very long.
There’s still the QT programme with Farage to come .
So that could be another moment of danger for Reform .
Alternatively it might be an opportunity to repair some of the possible damage . I suspect Farage is going to double down on what he said .
"Let's take some questions from the audience... we've got a lady from Ukraine, where is she, oh yes there you are. Daryna, what's your question please?" [there ensues an argument where Farage tells a refugee that Putin killed her twin brother because of Donald Tusk or something]
Nailed on the sort of stunt BBC will pull, complete with tear jerking backstory, relative tortured by the Russian, son who died on the front line...then next up a trans-right activist....then an migrant who came to the UK fleeing war on a small boat and now an internationally renowned brain surgeon.
It's only a gotcha if the politician says horrible things that are unpopular. That's all in his own hands.
Comments
lol
It’s odious and disgusting objectification of women. Please both of you, and others, desist. Thank you.
Lots of questions, all the answers by July 5th.
That document contained a lengthy declaration setting out the legal obligations on being an expert witness.
Underneath it, Jenkins wrote: "Standard stuff. No comment required."
He clarifies to the inquiry lawyer that he meant "I had seen similar stuff before... I didn't think it (those obligations) applied to me, wrongly"...
This means more buyers and a higher price for Nvidia and the strong performance means they pile in more.
So up and up we go. Until...See Cisco circa 2001 for futther information.
Not advice. Do your own research etc..
The Gambling Commission has sent information on five more Metropolitan Police officers to the force over the election betting scandal. They are alleged to have placed bets relating to the timing of the general election."
https://news.sky.com/story/election-2024-sunak-starmer-conservatives-labour-reform-lib-dem-12593360
Nadine Dorries - cousin that you hide the gin from when she visits.
Your first reaction to my comment was this:
“Yes. You've been wondering that constantly on here for over a year. Keep wondering. How the hell do you get paid for this? One hopes one might stumble upon an original, let alone coherent, thought. It's like watching a toddler try to explain quantum physics with finger paint”
But then you decided that my unoriginal and incoherent opinion was so childish and unimportant you went back and wrote an entirely different reaction here:
“Oh, you wonder if Starmer is going to become extremely unpopular very quickly? That’s adorable. It's like wondering if a fish is going to get wet. The British public don't accidentally elect anyone. They knew exactly what they are doing, just like when they buy a crap sandwich at Pret. And as for looking on in horror let's not pretend we're surprised when the honeymoon phase ends. It’s politics. Not everyone can "surprise on the upside" like you so memorably predicted of Liz Truss.
Let's indulge this fantasy that the British electorate, after all they've recently endured from their elected representatives, are suddenly going to clutch their pearls and swoon into disillusionment the moment Starmer says something. If we’re really going to dive into this alternate universe where voters are a fickle bunch of horrified onlookers, let’s do it right. We’ll need fainting couches on every street corner and smelling salts in every home.
Reading your drivel is like watching a monkey solve a Rubik's cube—entertainingly improbable yet utterly pointless.”
Maybe you should set up your own YouTube channel called “why we should ignore Leon’s pointless views” and do half hour lectures every three days on this subject which you then take on a national tour of empty cinemas you rent at great expense while wearing an IGNORE LEON tee shirt like some kind of Steve Bray but with LEON IS POINTLESS tattooed on your fucking tiny forehead
Second question. Yes. Labour are blowing the last week of this campaign by being too passive - aggressive Sunak and Cons can make real inroads into Labours lead now, if Labour remain so ineptly defensive is my estimation.
C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.
If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
Everything he touches ends up totally bolloxed
Give your council electoral registration department a ring
Winning champions league goal = furlough.
Bad performance as manager due to his own shortcomings but terrible planning and situation left by predecessors = bad performance as PM due to his own shortcomings but terrible planning and situation left by predecessors.
If we end up runners up we play Germany on Saturday. So we would be out of the competition in plenty of time before the election. Maybe enough for people to refocus on politics.
If we come third we play Portugal on Monday (evens whether we win that) or Romania on Tuesday (good chance of progressing).
If we win the group we play any one of a wide range of teams: Austria (on current form we lose), Romania (win), Belgium (probably lose), Slovakia (win), Czechia (probably win).
So I reckon there's a decent chance we are still in it at the start of next week, if not by election day. But for the electorate to refocus their attention in time we really need to be knocked out this weekend.
Britain snubs GSK in favour of US pharma giant for RSV vaccine
https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-snubs-gsk-favour-us-170246487.html
Refuk have roughly a tripling in support in polls in the last year. This is a 12.5% drop from previous poll.
Contrast with: Refuk have both had a better year than nvidia and have experienced a smaller recent % drop.
Problem is, even if Farage is right - he absolutely isn’t by the way - that EU expansion paved the way to war, it would be far too subtle and complex to convince the British electorate that evil Putin is our Uncle Vlad.
Ensured people doing a websearch on Boris Bus or similar got painted wine boxes instead of the /£350 million a year 2016 bus.
(hopefully not!)
So close, but not immediate. Somebody has been blabbing. This in when you get into tricky territory. My mate at the office say his mate works with Sunak and Sunak was overhead saying July....is that too different from my mate says he has a mate working at the stables and such and such a horse is running crazy good times.
It's all well and good debating geopolitics from a realpolitk perspective on an anoymous internet forum or in the even greater anonymity of an international relations department of a second rate university.
But Farage came out with comments supportive of a hostile foreign power at a time when we're in a (proxy) war with them, at a time when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, our allies, are paying in blood to free their country of Russian invaders. And he did this on national TV.
In the unlikely event Farage did worm his way into the Conservative party, you can imagine plenty of moderates quitting the party in disgust, or crossing over to the Lib Dems.
Farage's gaffe may well have ended his political ambitions and saved the Conservative party at the same time.
Someone went round to interview him years ago and saw them: wine boxes painted as buses with little people inside - seriously
Its like farmy-farm but real
one step outside and....
As others on PB have noted it sounded like a MAGA talking point. The kind of stuff you can get away with in America but not in Europe and certainly not in the UK
Crass
As so many PBers pointed out on here, Reform were taking most from Con but were taking Lab too, Red wallers etc. The froth on top of high Ref polls could go Lab, it won’t just be all Ref to Con and closing gap to Lab over coming week. Lab 43 or 44% PV and 13M votes is very much on with the Reform crash.
Quite odd. He’s about to win a massive majority (as you note). What does it matter if people are a bit
mean about his stiff persona?
He’s still gonna win. Chill
What is this obsession you have with politicians needing to be talented comics? I find it a bit bizarre.
So, if I wanted to "rig" an election in the UK, I would encourage the use of postal ballots, and I would concentrate on areas where the voters, or their parents and grandparents, come from places where vote fraud is common.
There's a parallel universe where Farage picked up another 2-3% over the last couple of weeks of the campaign, scored 7+ seats, merged with the Tories, became LOTO and would be challenging a tired Kier Starmer in 2029 for PM, after 5 years of tax rises, high immigration, high unemployment (AI job losses really beginning to bite), and general economic malaise. And I reckon we might just have had PM Nige in 2029.
All gone now. Zero chance.
So too early to say, but could be indicative of peaking and swingback starting as the ballot paper starts to concentrate minds.
There will be a good few Big Gs out there.
Breaking that trust for personal gain ought to be considered gross misconduct IMHO.
Parties would still have their own private polling and canvas returns. So we’d be here interpreting what internal party messaging was saying, or where the party leaders were visiting.
I think they should ban election polling, for the drama.
So that could be another moment of danger for Reform .
Alternatively it might be an opportunity to repair some of the possible damage . I suspect Farage is going to double down on what he said .
Hubris.
That means that even if Farage does well in Clacton and spends the next 5 years banging the anti-immigration drum from the backbenches, 2029 will probably end up as a re-run of 2024 with the right wing vote split down the middle between Con and RefUK.
A better scenario would be the Conservatives getting their act together, understanding why they got a shellacking, becoming a decent centre-right opposition party, and consigning Farage and his lot to the dustbin by 2029.
I hope and expect the second, but who knows? What I do know is that people writing him off on the basis he hasn't been a thrill-a-minute as Opposition Leader or in this GE campaign are mainly engaging in prejudice-informed guesswork.
[there ensues an argument where Farage tells a refugee that Putin killed her twin brother because of Donald Tusk or something]
You don't get that in the UK because if your postal vote isn't in the hands of the correct people by 10pm on July 4th it doesn't count.
manperson-hole spotting, Boris with wine box buses, Sunak with this coke addiction, Starmer trading friendship bracelets.Which if it ends up as NOM because various Labour voters stay at home and various others dont vote tactically and vote libdem and green and sundry tories turn out because losing is one thing, 200 majorities for socialists is another, that might prove a valid point.
It's a mystery to me. Personally I might be in the market for a low tax/low immigration socially conservative party. But not if it involves getting into bed with Putin. I don't see why any party would add that to their portfolio of beliefs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cmjjjg8drggt
After the last few years we will take dull but competent if he can manage it. We all know he has a tough task (I expect him to fail but I genuinely hope he succeeds)
What we don’t want is an inept politician who also makes us cringe. That will be damaging. Quit the gags Sir Kir
https://x.com/itvnewspolitics/status/1805553927133282542?s=61
Point of order. It was let loose by Labours equality act but didnt get above the radar until the Tories were in power.
Tatford wrote that he told Jenkins he was "under a duty to provide a full disclosure" of known Horizon errors and bugs to Misra's lawyers at the time of that case.
Jenkins now says he has "no recollection of such a discussion", adding: "I don't believe it would have occurred."..
I'm not sure this 'I was an expert witness for years, but had no idea what that meant' line is going to hold up for very long.
We're only at day 1 of 4.
https://x.com/RestIsPolitics/status/1805589400631251215