When something is both little and large – politicalbetting.com

System · June 25

When something is both little and large – politicalbetting.com

Of course, FPTP always means a small number of people have a big say. But in this election – as this chart shows – Labour looks set to win a lot of seats with very small majorities. Contrast with 2001, when many of Labour's narrowest wins were actually quite comfortable pic.twitter.com/ETJ2cAiIFo

Read the full story here

eek · June 25

First post out the door as Labour will need to be to ensure their voters get out and vote

Pulpstar · June 25

Looks like opportunity knocks for Sir Keir.

MattW · June 25

Go forth and conk out.

eek · June 25

FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...

Andy_JS · June 25

When a party is heading for a majority of 264 seats with 39.5% of the vote, as Electoral Calculus is currently forecasting, you know they must be distributing their vote very efficiently.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

biggles · June 25

Andy_JS said:
When a party is heading for a majority of 264 seats with 39.5% of the vote, as Electoral Calculus is currently forecasting, you know they must be distributing their vote very efficiently.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

What I find interesting is that when you play with those numbers a bit, there’s massive shifts around quite small swings (which reflects the thread header). We know Labour will win, but it wouldn’t take much for it to be a lot more narrowly than that.

AlsoLei · June 25

Islington North Update

Corbyn ran a 'knock on every door in Islington North' mass canvass over the weekend, and got further press attention on the back of it. Labour have been concentrating on weekday afternoons and evenings - apparently targetting postal voters, but I've had a second visit from both campaigns as well as another round of leaflets from each.

Both campaigns have been making use of special guests to help gee canvassers up - Labour have had people like Neil Kinnock and Peter Mandelson getting involved. Corbyn has had various celebrity endorsements on social media, but in person has relied on union leaders like Len McCluskey and Ian Hodson.

As many had been predicting, the CLP has finally split - the remaining old guard (including Alison McGarry, the former chair) have stopped sitting on their hands in order to actively campaign for Corbyn, and have been thrown out as a result. This is probably a net win for the party as their refusal to cooperate with the Labour campaign meant that things such as leaflet printing have had to be handled by the Islington South CLP instead. They also seem to have been the source for various disingenuous comments in the press to the effect that "Labour are doing hardly anything to campaign", which was true only if talking about their faction of the CLP!

Both parties seem to be hoping to re-canvass the entire constituency before polling day. From what I saw last week, Corbyn was running about 50% more canvassing sessions, but Labour had slightly more volunteers. This week, the number of sessions scheduled so far favours Labour, but the Corbyn campaign haven't yet published details of their activities at the weekend.

Finally, Survation have conducted a constituency poll (crowdfunded by Stats for Lefties), but the results haven't yet been published.

Corbyn Street

Labour: 3 window posters (same number as last week, but yet more churn with another two houses having lost, replaced with two new gains)
Corbyn: 9 window posters (up 7 from last week, slightly artificially)
Green: 3 leaflets (dumped in the street)
England: approx 50 flags - it's clear that people prefer football to politics!

In retrospect, it was a bit stupid to pick such an obviously-named street as a bellwether - it seems that the Corbyn campaign have been targeting it specifically. I've heard of one person living there who has been moved from "probable yes" to "fuck off or I'll call the police" as a result of high-pressure attempts to get him to display a Corbyn poster.

In my own street (less than 100m away) there are 1 labour & 2 Corbyn posters (Corbyn up 1 from last week). This seems more representative of this part of the constituency.

(last week's update here: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4839566/#Comment_4839566 )

johnt · June 25

The 2029 election might well see Labour wishing they had included electoral reform in their manifesto this time. The idea that because FPTP is working for them now they will get a few election victories is nonsense.

Nigelb · June 25

Regarding the header, it's not so much that it makes governing difficult, as that it makes governing well imperative.

If Starmer tries to be Mr Cautious in government, then he'll definitely have problems.

kjh · June 25

eek said:
FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...

Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.

It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.

I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.

Nigelb · June 25

Andy_JS said:
When a party is heading for a majority of 264 seats with 39.5% of the vote, as Electoral Calculus is currently forecasting, you know they must be distributing their vote very efficiently.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

Labour aren't really distributing any votes.
It's more that their opponents are splitting their votes very effectively.

Clutch_Brompton · June 25

On topic - The growing volatility in politics means that this figure is a neat statistic but doesn't really tell us anything. If your majority went from -80 to +300 in 5 years then it can reverse in the next 5. Some folk may not believe that but I'm sure the people round the Lab leadership do. They have to get to a position in 4 or 5 years when enough people will let them continue in office. It isn't rocket science and its very far from a given

Nunu5 · June 25

I know it's highly unlikely.

But say the libdems and Reform get the same number of seats for second place and the speaker chooses the libdems as opposition leader even though reform get millions more votes .....how will that play out in the country?

noneoftheabove · June 25

Monevator pointing out the absurdity of the governments plan on normal minimum pension age increase. Nothing wrong with the policy but on the implementation side they forgot to (or couldn't be bothered as were reminded) include transitional arrangements. This is the kind of low level crap I really hope Labour try and get right, instead of worrying about the next days headlines on stuff they can't fix. Not exciting for anyone but makes a difference in aggregate.

"Up to 5 April 2028 most people can tap into their pension from age 55.
Overnight, from 6 April 2028 the minimum pension age rises to 57.
Critically, there’s no transitional arrangement in place.
So if you’re not 57 on 6 April 2028, you will generally not be able to access your pension. Even if you were doing so because you were over-55 before that date!
In the case of someone born on 5 April 1973, they will have precisely 24 hours to enjoy their pension before it closes for another two years."

https://monevator.com/minimum-pension-age-increase/

Andy_JS · June 25

johnt said:
The 2029 election might well see Labour wishing they had included electoral reform in their manifesto this time. The idea that because FPTP is working for them now they will get a few election victories is nonsense.

One day a party in government is going to have to bite the bullet and change the voting system because they have the foresight to imagine what might happen at future elections instead of just thinking of the here and now.

kinabalu · June 25

Look at the sheer ineptitude of Corbyn, running up votes in safe metro centres and losing them in small towns and provincial marginals. That's not how you do it.

turbotubbs · June 25

kjh said:

eek said:
FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.

It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.

I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.

They may have reasons but are they valid in the sense of a need to claim asylum in the UK? E.g. not speaking French so would prefer to be in England should not be a valid reason.

Pulpstar · June 25

Andy_JS said:
When a party is heading for a majority of 264 seats with 39.5% of the vote, as Electoral Calculus is currently forecasting, you know they must be distributing their vote very efficiently.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

A very similar situation to Scotland 2005 for Labour in terms of vote and seat %s coming up (potentially)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland Scottish Labour got 69.5% of the seats for 39.5% of the Scottish vote back in 2005.

The equivalent of a 254 seat majority if extrapolated to the whole of the UK. 10 years later that was one seat !

Nigelb · June 25

Here's one for our super-predictors.

Who would have predicted two years ago that Serbian armament factories would be working extra shifts to supply Ukraine ?

noneoftheabove · June 25

Nunu5 said:
I know it's highly unlikely.

But say the libdems and Reform get the same number of seats for second place and the speaker chooses the libdems as opposition leader even though reform get millions more votes .....how will that play out in the country?

Getting offended by something hypothetical that will never happen is not a sensible use of energy.

turbotubbs · June 25

Nigelb said:

Andy_JS said:
When a party is heading for a majority of 264 seats with 39.5% of the vote, as Electoral Calculus is currently forecasting, you know they must be distributing their vote very efficiently.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
Labour aren't really distributing any votes.
It's more that their opponents are splitting their votes very effectively.

And just as has happened before, its not that the parties are choosing to do this, its just the way its working out. The result in 2005 was a travesty in terms of giving Labour a decent majority with a lead of less than 3 %. But thats the system the election was contested under, as will be 2024.

Andy_JS · June 25

AlsoLei said:
Islington North Update

Corbyn ran a 'knock on every door in Islington North' mass canvass over the weekend, and got further press attention on the back of it. Labour have been concentrating on weekday afternoons and evenings - apparently targetting postal voters, but I've had a second visit from both campaigns as well as another round of leaflets from each.

Both campaigns have been making use of special guests to help gee canvassers up - Labour have had people like Neil Kinnock and Peter Mandelson getting involved. Corbyn has had various celebrity endorsements on social media, but in person has relied on union leaders like Len McCluskey and Ian Hodson.

As many had been predicting, the CLP has finally split - the remaining old guard (including Alison McGarry, the former chair) have stopped sitting on their hands in order to actively campaign for Corbyn, and have been thrown out as a result. This is probably a net win for the party as their refusal to cooperate with the Labour campaign meant that things such as leaflet printing have had to be handled by the Islington South CLP instead. They also seem to have been the source for various disingenuous comments in the press to the effect that "Labour are doing hardly anything to campaign", which was true only if talking about their faction of the CLP!

Both parties seem to be hoping to re-canvass the entire constituency before polling day. From what I saw last week, Corbyn was running about 50% more canvassing sessions, but Labour had slightly more volunteers. This week, the number of sessions scheduled so far favours Labour, but the Corbyn campaign haven't yet published details of their activities at the weekend.

Finally, Survation have conducted a constituency poll (crowdfunded by Stats for Lefties), but the results haven't yet been published.

Corbyn Street

Labour: 3 window posters (same number as last week, but yet more churn with another two houses having lost, replaced with two new gains)
Corbyn: 9 window posters (up 7 from last week, slightly artificially)
Green: 3 leaflets (dumped in the street)
England: approx 50 flags - it's clear that people prefer football to politics!

In retrospect, it was a bit stupid to pick such an obviously-named street as a bellwether - it seems that the Corbyn campaign have been targeting it specifically. I've heard of one person living there who has been moved from "probable yes" to "fuck off or I'll call the police" as a result of high-pressure attempts to get him to display a Corbyn poster.

In my own street (less than 100m away) there are 1 labour & 2 Corbyn posters (Corbyn up 1 from last week). This seems more representative of this part of the constituency.

(last week's update here: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4839566/#Comment_4839566 )

I'm guessing Corbyn gets about 30% of the vote. Does that sound right?

noneoftheabove · June 25

turbotubbs said:

kjh said:

eek said:
FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.

It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.

I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.
They may have reasons but are they valid in the sense of a need to claim asylum in the UK? E.g. not speaking French so would prefer to be in England should not be a valid reason.

Yet again, that is not the system we, ourselves, have chosen to offer them. The law does not say asylum seekers need to claim asylum in the first safe country. If that does not suit us, it is on us to change our rules, not them to change their behaviour.

Theuniondivvie · June 25

Nunu5 said:
I know it's highly unlikely.

But say the libdems and Reform get the same number of seats for second place and the speaker chooses the libdems as opposition leader even though reform get millions more votes .....how will that play out in the country?

The same people who said it was right for the Speaker (assuming it's still the silly old fud from Lancashire) to stuff the SNP Gaza motion for 'reasons' will say it's right for him to choose the LDs as the opposition for 'reasons'.

Nigelb · June 25

Reposting from the last thread my suggested solution to the problems of the law on computer evidence -

Make failure to disclose exculpatory evidence a strict liability offence (as with eg breaches of health and safety regs), punishable by fines, and criminal prosecutions in the most egregious cases.

It would make prosecutors a great deal more scrupulous about discharging their legal responsibilities.

An easy win, offered free to the next Labour Justice Secretary.

(The alternative is spending years trying to come up with a fairer rule that's also practical.)

wooliedyed · June 25

NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?

Stuartinromford · June 25

Nigelb said:

Andy_JS said:
When a party is heading for a majority of 264 seats with 39.5% of the vote, as Electoral Calculus is currently forecasting, you know they must be distributing their vote very efficiently.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
Labour aren't really distributing any votes.
It's more that their opponents are splitting their votes very effectively.

Yup. The biggest factor is the RefCon split, and there's not very much Starmer can do about that.

(I'm not sure that there's much Reform or the Conservatives can do about it either in the short term, but hey ho.)

So Starmer might as well get on with governing well. And the 100 or so flukiest Labour MPs had best enjoy the ride.

TheScreamingEagles · June 25

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?

Nigel Farage's pro Putin bullshit costs Reform votes shocker.

Stick that in your pipe and smoke it you pro Russian trolls.

Anabobazina · June 25

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?

Good question, it is in the MOE as you say, but nevertheless a notable drop. We shall see if it has any support from other polling.

Pulpstar · June 25

Clutch_Brompton said:
On topic - The growing volatility in politics means that this figure is a neat statistic but doesn't really tell us anything. If your majority went from -80 to +300 in 5 years then it can reverse in the next 5. Some folk may not believe that but I'm sure the people round the Lab leadership do. They have to get to a position in 4 or 5 years when enough people will let them continue in office. It isn't rocket science and its very far from a given

More likely to do so if you start at sub 40% imo, you're essentially relying on your opposition continuing to be split (It is desperately fragmented this election)

turbotubbs · June 25

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?

Surely "The Day The Polls Turned..." Look at that rise in the Tory vote etc etc

bondegezou · June 25

I did Vote Compass and got...

Alliance Party 78%
Social Democratic & Labour Party 66%
People Before Profit 64%
Sinn Féin 63%
Ulster Unionist Party 49%
Democratic Unionist Party 29%
Traditional Unionist Voice 27%

I tried it for NI because I thought it would be more interesting!

stodge · June 25

Afternoon all

If the football tonight isn't for you, there's a nice evening of local drama and theatre in East Ham.

The Newham Palestine Solidarity Campaign has arranged an election hustings at an arts centre in Plashet Grove at 7pm. I was thinking of being pb's "Man On The Spot" (apologies to @bunnco) but my suit of armour is at the dry cleaners this week.

I suspect there'll be questions on a range of topics from Gaza to Gaza and probably Palestinian recognition. I expect the Council to join my suit of armour and get taken to the cleaners.

I also suspect there will be a robust debate (not quite two falls, a submission or a knockout to decide the winner but not far off).

eek · June 25

kjh said:

eek said:
FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.

It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.

I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.

So basically you are saying that nothing is going to stop people trying to get to the UK from France via boat illegally because nothing will deter them.

Good luck selling that on the doorsteps of Kent / Clacton (even though I agree with you)

Stuartinromford · June 25

AlsoLei said:
Islington North Update

Corbyn ran a 'knock on every door in Islington North' mass canvass over the weekend, and got further press attention on the back of it. Labour have been concentrating on weekday afternoons and evenings - apparently targetting postal voters, but I've had a second visit from both campaigns as well as another round of leaflets from each.

Both campaigns have been making use of special guests to help gee canvassers up - Labour have had people like Neil Kinnock and Peter Mandelson getting involved. Corbyn has had various celebrity endorsements on social media, but in person has relied on union leaders like Len McCluskey and Ian Hodson.

As many had been predicting, the CLP has finally split - the remaining old guard (including Alison McGarry, the former chair) have stopped sitting on their hands in order to actively campaign for Corbyn, and have been thrown out as a result. This is probably a net win for the party as their refusal to cooperate with the Labour campaign meant that things such as leaflet printing have had to be handled by the Islington South CLP instead. They also seem to have been the source for various disingenuous comments in the press to the effect that "Labour are doing hardly anything to campaign", which was true only if talking about their faction of the CLP!

Both parties seem to be hoping to re-canvass the entire constituency before polling day. From what I saw last week, Corbyn was running about 50% more canvassing sessions, but Labour had slightly more volunteers. This week, the number of sessions scheduled so far favours Labour, but the Corbyn campaign haven't yet published details of their activities at the weekend.

Finally, Survation have conducted a constituency poll (crowdfunded by Stats for Lefties), but the results haven't yet been published.

Corbyn Street

Labour: 3 window posters (same number as last week, but yet more churn with another two houses having lost, replaced with two new gains)
Corbyn: 9 window posters (up 7 from last week, slightly artificially)
Green: 3 leaflets (dumped in the street)
England: approx 50 flags - it's clear that people prefer football to politics!

In retrospect, it was a bit stupid to pick such an obviously-named street as a bellwether - it seems that the Corbyn campaign have been targeting it specifically. I've heard of one person living there who has been moved from "probable yes" to "fuck off or I'll call the police" as a result of high-pressure attempts to get him to display a Corbyn poster.

In my own street (less than 100m away) there are 1 labour & 2 Corbyn posters (Corbyn up 1 from last week). This seems more representative of this part of the constituency.

(last week's update here: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4839566/#Comment_4839566 )

When was the poll done? Have we got to the point where the it's reasonable to draw an inference from the lack of publicity for its results?

kinabalu · June 25

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?

That's looking a tad more 'traditional'.

Heathener · June 25

johnt said:
The 2029 election might well see Labour wishing they had included electoral reform in their manifesto this time. The idea that because FPTP is working for them now they will get a few election victories is nonsense.

This is straw-clutching of the most desperate kind. Sorry to you and @TSE . You’re welcome to dream but if Labour get a 150+ seat majority the earliest election the Conservatives can be back in contention is 2033/4 and that’s if they get their shit together.

You just don’t seem to get it. They trashed their brand on economic competence. That takes a long time to restore.

eek · June 25

Nigelb said:
Reposting from the last thread my suggested solution to the problems of the law on computer evidence -

Make failure to disclose exculpatory evidence a strict liability offence (as with eg breaches of health and safety regs), punishable by fines, and criminal prosecutions in the most egregious cases.

It would make prosecutors a great deal more scrupulous about discharging their legal responsibilities.

An easy win, offered free to the next Labour Justice Secretary.

(The alternative is spending years trying to come up with a fairer rule that's also practical.)

Or you use the Scottish approach that Computer Evidence is not by itself enough....

turbotubbs · June 25

stodge said:
Afternoon all

If the football tonight isn't for you, there's a nice evening of local drama and theatre in East Ham.

The Newham Palestine Solidarity Campaign has arranged an election hustings at an arts centre in Plashet Grove at 7pm. I was thinking of being pb's "Man On The Spot" (apologies to @bunnco) but my suit of armour is at the dry cleaners this week.

I suspect there'll be questions on a range of topics from Gaza to Gaza and probably Palestinian recognition. I expect the Council to join my suit of armour and get taken to the cleaners.

I also suspect there will be a robust debate (not quite two falls, a submission or a knockout to decide the winner but not far off).

Isn't the real danger that the Palestine Newham Campaign for Solidarity might try and disrupt? Splitters!!!!

TheScreamingEagles · June 25

Heathener said:

johnt said:
The 2029 election might well see Labour wishing they had included electoral reform in their manifesto this time. The idea that because FPTP is working for them now they will get a few election victories is nonsense.
This is straw-clutching of the most desperate kind. Sorry to you and @TSE . You’re welcome to dream but if Labour get a 150+ seat majority the earliest election the Conservatives can be back in contention is 2033/4 and that’s if they get their shit together.

You just don’t seem to get it. They trashed their brand on economic competence. That takes a long time to restore.

It's not straw clutching but based on data based evidence.

Heathener · June 25

TheScreamingEagles said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Nigel Farage's pro Putin bullshit costs Reform votes shocker.

Stick that in your pipe and smoke it you pro Russian trolls.

Let’s hope so

kjh · June 25

turbotubbs said:

kjh said:

eek said:
FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.

It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.

I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.
They may have reasons but are they valid in the sense of a need to claim asylum in the UK? E.g. not speaking French so would prefer to be in England should not be a valid reason.

Everyone seems to be missing the point.

It does not matter whether he has a valid reason for coming here. He probably doesn't. He is just on the run from one country to the next. That is the whole point. Many/most of these people don't.

The whole point of my reply to Leon was it is naively simplistic to just say tow the boats back or say but France is safe. They are risking their lives to come here so they will continue trying. The reasons for doing so are complex.

So saying stuff like tow them back or France is safe might make us feel good but it solves nothing whatsoever does it?

I don't know what the solution is.

Nigelb · June 25

eek said:

Nigelb said:
Reposting from the last thread my suggested solution to the problems of the law on computer evidence -

Make failure to disclose exculpatory evidence a strict liability offence (as with eg breaches of health and safety regs), punishable by fines, and criminal prosecutions in the most egregious cases.

It would make prosecutors a great deal more scrupulous about discharging their legal responsibilities.

An easy win, offered free to the next Labour Justice Secretary.

(The alternative is spending years trying to come up with a fairer rule that's also practical.)
Or you use the Scottish approach that Computer Evidence is not by itself enough....

Disclosure has long been a problem in other cases not involving computer evidence, of course.

AlsoLei · June 25

Andy_JS said:

AlsoLei said:
Islington North Update

Corbyn ran a 'knock on every door in Islington North' mass canvass over the weekend, and got further press attention on the back of it. Labour have been concentrating on weekday afternoons and evenings - apparently targetting postal voters, but I've had a second visit from both campaigns as well as another round of leaflets from each.

Both campaigns have been making use of special guests to help gee canvassers up - Labour have had people like Neil Kinnock and Peter Mandelson getting involved. Corbyn has had various celebrity endorsements on social media, but in person has relied on union leaders like Len McCluskey and Ian Hodson.

As many had been predicting, the CLP has finally split - the remaining old guard (including Alison McGarry, the former chair) have stopped sitting on their hands in order to actively campaign for Corbyn, and have been thrown out as a result. This is probably a net win for the party as their refusal to cooperate with the Labour campaign meant that things such as leaflet printing have had to be handled by the Islington South CLP instead. They also seem to have been the source for various disingenuous comments in the press to the effect that "Labour are doing hardly anything to campaign", which was true only if talking about their faction of the CLP!

Both parties seem to be hoping to re-canvass the entire constituency before polling day. From what I saw last week, Corbyn was running about 50% more canvassing sessions, but Labour had slightly more volunteers. This week, the number of sessions scheduled so far favours Labour, but the Corbyn campaign haven't yet published details of their activities at the weekend.

Finally, Survation have conducted a constituency poll (crowdfunded by Stats for Lefties), but the results haven't yet been published.

Corbyn Street

Labour: 3 window posters (same number as last week, but yet more churn with another two houses having lost, replaced with two new gains)
Corbyn: 9 window posters (up 7 from last week, slightly artificially)
Green: 3 leaflets (dumped in the street)
England: approx 50 flags - it's clear that people prefer football to politics!

In retrospect, it was a bit stupid to pick such an obviously-named street as a bellwether - it seems that the Corbyn campaign have been targeting it specifically. I've heard of one person living there who has been moved from "probable yes" to "fuck off or I'll call the police" as a result of high-pressure attempts to get him to display a Corbyn poster.

In my own street (less than 100m away) there are 1 labour & 2 Corbyn posters (Corbyn up 1 from last week). This seems more representative of this part of the constituency.

(last week's update here: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4839566/#Comment_4839566 )
I'm guessing Corbyn gets about 30% of the vote. Does that sound right?

That sounds like a reasonable guess - but I have no real information to base it on.

Labour are continuing to throw resources at it (see their canvassing schedule for Islington North compared to the neighbouring Hornsey and Friern Barnet or Islington South), which suggests they think it's winnable but not in the bag.

There's been a lot of comment in the press about this being an easy Corbyn win - much of this seems to be coming from the disaffected CLP members who made up about about a quarter of the party as far as I can tell. The actual level of activity on the ground - in my part of the constituency, at least - seems to be much closer than the media are claiming.

Nigelb · June 25

Not bad news for Wes Streeting.

‘Skinny jabs’: weight-loss drugs set for new boom as generic versions emerge
Alternatives to costly Wegovy and Saxenda will make such treatments more widely available worldwide
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/25/skinny-jabs-weight-loss-drugs-generic-ozempic-wegovy-saxenda

eek · June 25

Heathener said:

johnt said:
The 2029 election might well see Labour wishing they had included electoral reform in their manifesto this time. The idea that because FPTP is working for them now they will get a few election victories is nonsense.
This is straw-clutching of the most desperate kind. Sorry to you and @TSE . You’re welcome to dream but if Labour get a 150+ seat majority the earliest election the Conservatives can be back in contention is 2033/4 and that’s if they get their shit together.

You just don’t seem to get it. They trashed their brand on economic competence. That takes a long time to restore.

In 2019 Labour lost a lot of their vote because of Corbyn to Farage / Boris.
In 2024 the Tories seem to losing a lot of their vote to Farage...

In 2029 if the right is united it's possible to see the tory party on say 35%, add a bit of unpopularity to Labour and a hung Parliament or worse is easily imaginable.

All that is required is a Tory party that doesn't put potential voters off and Labour doing a few things that annoy their voters..

Peter_the_Punter · June 25

eek said:

Nigelb said:
Reposting from the last thread my suggested solution to the problems of the law on computer evidence -

Make failure to disclose exculpatory evidence a strict liability offence (as with eg breaches of health and safety regs), punishable by fines, and criminal prosecutions in the most egregious cases.

It would make prosecutors a great deal more scrupulous about discharging their legal responsibilities.

An easy win, offered free to the next Labour Justice Secretary.

(The alternative is spending years trying to come up with a fairer rule that's also practical.)
Or you use the Scottish approach that Computer Evidence is not by itself enough....

Just checking in to PB after watching this morning's evidence and have been fascinated by the views of our computery posters.

I'm really not sure what to make of Jenkins and am astonished to find just how scathing you guys are.

Heathener · June 25

TheScreamingEagles said:

Heathener said:

johnt said:
The 2029 election might well see Labour wishing they had included electoral reform in their manifesto this time. The idea that because FPTP is working for them now they will get a few election victories is nonsense.
This is straw-clutching of the most desperate kind. Sorry to you and @TSE . You’re welcome to dream but if Labour get a 150+ seat majority the earliest election the Conservatives can be back in contention is 2033/4 and that’s if they get their shit together.

You just don’t seem to get it. They trashed their brand on economic competence. That takes a long time to restore.
It's not straw clutching but based on data based evidence.

No it isn’t. If they get a so-called ‘super-majority’, taking seats from the Cons then of course there will be lots of marginals and, yes, some could go back in 5 years. But not enough to justify the hyperbole.

IF they get a 150+ seat majority then all Labour need to do for a second term is the very thing the Conservatives failed to: be competent and stable.

bondegezou · June 25

turbotubbs said:

kjh said:

eek said:
FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.

It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.

I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.
They may have reasons but are they valid in the sense of a need to claim asylum in the UK? E.g. not speaking French so would prefer to be in England should not be a valid reason.

It isn't a valid reason, but the system doesn't work how you imagine it to work. You get to claim asylum only in the country you are in. People in the UK can only claim asylum in the UK. People in Canada can only claim asylum in Canada. Etc.

turbotubbs · June 25

Heathener said:

johnt said:
The 2029 election might well see Labour wishing they had included electoral reform in their manifesto this time. The idea that because FPTP is working for them now they will get a few election victories is nonsense.
This is straw-clutching of the most desperate kind. Sorry to you and @TSE . You’re welcome to dream but if Labour get a 150+ seat majority the earliest election the Conservatives can be back in contention is 2033/4 and that’s if they get their shit together.

You just don’t seem to get it. They trashed their brand on economic competence. That takes a long time to restore.

I think this is overstating it too, though. Back in good old Jan 2020, when bats were mingling with mongoose or camels or ocelots in a wet market/level 2 biolab*, people thought that the Tories were in for two terms because of the Johnson majority. Events have wrecked that happy dream/torrid nightmare**.

You often argue that 2019 is not the benchmark for this election, and that is true to an extent, but also its true that ALL elections have unique factors around them. On this occasion no-one is listening to what the Tories are saying. Nothing they do has any effect. That will not last forever. And governing is hard. Every government that served through covid and the energy shock has suffered or will suffer at the polls. That might not be totally fair, but if you are in the chair when the music stops, you carry the can.

*Delete as appropriate
**Also delete as appropriate

Eabhal · June 25

turbotubbs said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Surely "The Day The Polls Turned..." Look at that rise in the Tory vote etc etc

I thought Farage leading Reform would end up being a good thing for the Tories. A known, negative quantity instead of a vague protest vote.

I've been completely wrong about that in the last two weeks. But with 13 days to go, there is still a chance for me to be right (to an extent).

Heathener · June 25

Eabhal said:

turbotubbs said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Surely "The Day The Polls Turned..." Look at that rise in the Tory vote etc etc
But with 13 days to go, there is still a chance for me to be right (to an extent).

Ermm ...

eek · June 25

bondegezou said:

turbotubbs said:

kjh said:

eek said:
FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.

It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.

I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.
They may have reasons but are they valid in the sense of a need to claim asylum in the UK? E.g. not speaking French so would prefer to be in England should not be a valid reason.
It isn't a valid reason, but the system doesn't work how you imagine it to work. You get to claim asylum only in the country you are in. People in the UK can only claim asylum in the UK. People in Canada can only claim asylum in Canada. Etc.

The point I made earlier is that it seem the example @kjh talks about is shopping round for a country that will accept him, hence knowing that France are about to kick him out he moves on to another country to try for asylum for a third attempt.

Eabhal · June 25

Heathener said:

Eabhal said:

turbotubbs said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Surely "The Day The Polls Turned..." Look at that rise in the Tory vote etc etc
But with 13 days to go, there is still a chance for me to be right (to an extent).
Ermm ...

*8

bondegezou · June 25

eek said:

kjh said:

eek said:
FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.

It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.

I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.
So basically you are saying that nothing is going to stop people trying to get to the UK from France via boat illegally because nothing will deter them.

Good luck selling that on the doorsteps of Kent / Clacton (even though I agree with you)

There is plenty that will deter them. However, the Conservative Party has had very little interest in what would deter them versus what Tory party members think would deter them.

BartholomewRoberts · June 25

bondegezou said:

turbotubbs said:

kjh said:

eek said:
FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.

It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.

I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.
They may have reasons but are they valid in the sense of a need to claim asylum in the UK? E.g. not speaking French so would prefer to be in England should not be a valid reason.
It isn't a valid reason, but the system doesn't work how you imagine it to work. You get to claim asylum only in the country you are in. People in the UK can only claim asylum in the UK. People in Canada can only claim asylum in Canada. Etc.

Indeed.

And as a sovereign nation, the UK is free to change its law if it pleases.

If the UK were to pass a law saying anyone who has been through France to claim asylum to the UK automatically fails their claim, that would be the law.

If Parliament doesn't pass that law, its not the law.

Malmesbury · June 25

kinabalu said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
That's looking a tad more 'traditional'.

Once again, we see that the effect of a story is not immediate - it shows up in the polls a week or two later.

Pulpstar · June 25

One thing that's really sunk Sunak this campaign is the lack of a rate cut from the BoE. I think they'd likely have cut in June without the election, but as soon as there is an announcement made about an election the BoE will always hold off. So Sunak should have waited till after the actual cut announcement to call the election.

turbotubbs · June 25

kjh said:

turbotubbs said:

kjh said:

eek said:
FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.

It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.

I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.
They may have reasons but are they valid in the sense of a need to claim asylum in the UK? E.g. not speaking French so would prefer to be in England should not be a valid reason.
Everyone seems to be missing the point.

It does not matter whether he has a valid reason for coming here. He probably doesn't. He is just on the run from one country to the next. That is the whole point. Many/most of these people don't.

The whole point of my reply to Leon was it is naively simplistic to just say tow the boats back or say but France is safe. They are risking their lives to come here so they will continue trying. The reasons for doing so are complex.

So saying stuff like tow them back or France is safe might make us feel good but it solves nothing whatsoever does it?

I don't know what the solution is.

There are many issues. I think most people are united that they don't want anyone to risk their lives crossing the channel in a dingy. For some its about avoiding loss of life. For others it about avoiding having to deal with asylum seekers at all. How do you stop it? Starmer has a plan (apparently). Sunak has a stupid plan.

Peter_the_Punter · June 25

johnt said:
The 2029 election might well see Labour wishing they had included electoral reform in their manifesto this time. The idea that because FPTP is working for them now they will get a few election victories is nonsense.

Maybe this election will produce such a manifestly unfair result that there is overwhelming demand for reform. [But not Reform!]

AlsoLei · June 25

Stuartinromford said:

AlsoLei said:
Islington North Update

Corbyn ran a 'knock on every door in Islington North' mass canvass over the weekend, and got further press attention on the back of it. Labour have been concentrating on weekday afternoons and evenings - apparently targetting postal voters, but I've had a second visit from both campaigns as well as another round of leaflets from each.

Both campaigns have been making use of special guests to help gee canvassers up - Labour have had people like Neil Kinnock and Peter Mandelson getting involved. Corbyn has had various celebrity endorsements on social media, but in person has relied on union leaders like Len McCluskey and Ian Hodson.

As many had been predicting, the CLP has finally split - the remaining old guard (including Alison McGarry, the former chair) have stopped sitting on their hands in order to actively campaign for Corbyn, and have been thrown out as a result. This is probably a net win for the party as their refusal to cooperate with the Labour campaign meant that things such as leaflet printing have had to be handled by the Islington South CLP instead. They also seem to have been the source for various disingenuous comments in the press to the effect that "Labour are doing hardly anything to campaign", which was true only if talking about their faction of the CLP!

Both parties seem to be hoping to re-canvass the entire constituency before polling day. From what I saw last week, Corbyn was running about 50% more canvassing sessions, but Labour had slightly more volunteers. This week, the number of sessions scheduled so far favours Labour, but the Corbyn campaign haven't yet published details of their activities at the weekend.

Finally, Survation have conducted a constituency poll (crowdfunded by Stats for Lefties), but the results haven't yet been published.

Corbyn Street

Labour: 3 window posters (same number as last week, but yet more churn with another two houses having lost, replaced with two new gains)
Corbyn: 9 window posters (up 7 from last week, slightly artificially)
Green: 3 leaflets (dumped in the street)
England: approx 50 flags - it's clear that people prefer football to politics!

In retrospect, it was a bit stupid to pick such an obviously-named street as a bellwether - it seems that the Corbyn campaign have been targeting it specifically. I've heard of one person living there who has been moved from "probable yes" to "fuck off or I'll call the police" as a result of high-pressure attempts to get him to display a Corbyn poster.

In my own street (less than 100m away) there are 1 labour & 2 Corbyn posters (Corbyn up 1 from last week). This seems more representative of this part of the constituency.

(last week's update here: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4839566/#Comment_4839566 )
When was the poll done? Have we got to the point where the it's reasonable to draw an inference from the lack of publicity for its results?

I think the delay is on Survation's side - Ell Folan (Stats for Lefties) who organised the crowdfunding sounds a bit frustrated by it. The latest update was from Friday and said "although it's taken a little longer than I anticipated, it will definitely be published next week."

I'm a bit sceptical about the value, however, given the difficulty of getting a properly representative sample at such a small scale...

kjh · June 25

eek said:

kjh said:

eek said:
FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.

It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.

I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.
So basically you are saying that nothing is going to stop people trying to get to the UK from France via boat illegally because nothing will deter them.

Good luck selling that on the doorsteps of Kent / Clacton (even though I agree with you)

Yep, sadly the simple, but won't work answers are easier to sell than the difficult complex ones. That is often the source of popularism

Harris_Tweed · June 25

"Not really but it is what he thinks"

FFS

https://x.com/Adrian_Hilton/status/1805302823900344782

Andy_JS · June 25

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?

Farage blew it with his Putin comments.

Nigelb · June 25

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
That's looking a tad more 'traditional'.
Once again, we see that the effect of a story is not immediate - it shows up in the polls a week or two later.

Two weeks would be irrelevant at this point.

Theuniondivvie · June 25

Tough crowd. Needed a toolmaker gag - hur, hur, he said tool!

https://x.com/toryfibs/status/1805584056681144780?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

kinabalu · June 25

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:

Andy_JS said:
When a party is heading for a majority of 264 seats with 39.5% of the vote, as Electoral Calculus is currently forecasting, you know they must be distributing their vote very efficiently.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
Labour aren't really distributing any votes.
It's more that their opponents are splitting their votes very effectively.
Yup. The biggest factor is the RefCon split, and there's not very much Starmer can do about that.

(I'm not sure that there's much Reform or the Conservatives can do about it either in the short term, but hey ho.)

So Starmer might as well get on with governing well. And the 100 or so flukiest Labour MPs had best enjoy the ride.

It's good for SKS, I think. If he gets (say) a 250 majority he can mentally split it into 2 parts. A core majority of 150 and a dispensable frothy add-on of another 100. Rather like a pint of bitter with a big head on it. The 'head' he can use when spending political capital on the tough 'to govern is to choose' decisions he will need to take if he is to be a radical reforming PM in the progressive tradition. Normally a PM would have to be spending some of their real and actual majority when doing the hard controversial stuff. They'd be drinking their beer as it were. But Starmer can just pour away the head. He won't need to touch his ale until all of that has gone. Very nice position to be in.

Malmesbury · June 25

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Farage blew it with his Putin comments.

Not exactly blew it, but put a ceiling on his success.

BartholomewRoberts · June 25

Harris_Tweed said:
"Not really but it is what he thinks"

FFS

https://x.com/Adrian_Hilton/status/1805302823900344782

I think any teacher who spoke in such a condescending and absurd manner to Year 9s would be in for some serious grief!

SirNorfolkPassmore · June 25

Theuniondivvie said:

Nunu5 said:
I know it's highly unlikely.

But say the libdems and Reform get the same number of seats for second place and the speaker chooses the libdems as opposition leader even though reform get millions more votes .....how will that play out in the country?
The same people who said it was right for the Speaker (assuming it's still the silly old fud from Lancashire) to stuff the SNP Gaza motion for 'reasons' will say it's right for him to choose the LDs as the opposition for 'reasons'.

I doubt that. Labour would much rather have the Conservatives as official opposition. I don't say that as a comment on the ability of the Lib Dems or Conservatives to oppose (although frankly the Tories will be busy with their own civil war, weakening their effectiveness). It's more that Labour would want to set the next few years up as them fixing the mess "them lot over there" left - they need an enemy to play off, and the Lib Dems don't really fit the bill.

Heathener · June 25

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
That's looking a tad more 'traditional'.
Once again, we see that the effect of a story is not immediate - it shows up in the polls a week or two later.

Very important point

RochdalePioneers · June 25

AlsoLei said:
Islington North Update

Corbyn ran a 'knock on every door in Islington North' mass canvass over the weekend, and got further press attention on the back of it. Labour have been concentrating on weekday afternoons and evenings - apparently targetting postal voters, but I've had a second visit from both campaigns as well as another round of leaflets from each.

Both campaigns have been making use of special guests to help gee canvassers up - Labour have had people like Neil Kinnock and Peter Mandelson getting involved. Corbyn has had various celebrity endorsements on social media, but in person has relied on union leaders like Len McCluskey and Ian Hodson.

As many had been predicting, the CLP has finally split - the remaining old guard (including Alison McGarry, the former chair) have stopped sitting on their hands in order to actively campaign for Corbyn, and have been thrown out as a result. This is probably a net win for the party as their refusal to cooperate with the Labour campaign meant that things such as leaflet printing have had to be handled by the Islington South CLP instead. They also seem to have been the source for various disingenuous comments in the press to the effect that "Labour are doing hardly anything to campaign", which was true only if talking about their faction of the CLP!

Both parties seem to be hoping to re-canvass the entire constituency before polling day. From what I saw last week, Corbyn was running about 50% more canvassing sessions, but Labour had slightly more volunteers. This week, the number of sessions scheduled so far favours Labour, but the Corbyn campaign haven't yet published details of their activities at the weekend.

Finally, Survation have conducted a constituency poll (crowdfunded by Stats for Lefties), but the results haven't yet been published.

Corbyn Street

Labour: 3 window posters (same number as last week, but yet more churn with another two houses having lost, replaced with two new gains)
Corbyn: 9 window posters (up 7 from last week, slightly artificially)
Green: 3 leaflets (dumped in the street)
England: approx 50 flags - it's clear that people prefer football to politics!

In retrospect, it was a bit stupid to pick such an obviously-named street as a bellwether - it seems that the Corbyn campaign have been targeting it specifically. I've heard of one person living there who has been moved from "probable yes" to "fuck off or I'll call the police" as a result of high-pressure attempts to get him to display a Corbyn poster.

In my own street (less than 100m away) there are 1 labour & 2 Corbyn posters (Corbyn up 1 from last week). This seems more representative of this part of the constituency.

(last week's update here: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4839566/#Comment_4839566 )

The comedy lolz will be that the Owenite left will claim that Corbyn's victory is proof they have defeated a Labour party just elected on a 907 seat landslide.

bondegezou · June 25

My picture of the day (indeed, week)! My Vote Compass results for Northern Ireland.

eek · June 25

Pulpstar said:
One thing that's really sunk Sunak this campaign is the lack of a rate cut from the BoE. I think they'd likely have cut in June without the election, but as soon as there is an announcement made about an election the BoE will always hold off. So Sunak should have waited till after the actual cut announcement to call the election.

The inflation figures for Services and wages aren't good - were it not for historic energy prices that have a couple of months left in the figures inflation would be well above 3% - which is why that interest rate cut wasn't happening..

Andy_JS · June 25

Malmesbury said:

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Farage blew it with his Putin comments.
Not exactly blew it, but put a ceiling on his success.

20% was very possible before. I wonder why he made such a stupid mistake.

Pulpstar · June 25

eek said:

Pulpstar said:
One thing that's really sunk Sunak this campaign is the lack of a rate cut from the BoE. I think they'd likely have cut in June without the election, but as soon as there is an announcement made about an election the BoE will always hold off. So Sunak should have waited till after the actual cut announcement to call the election.
The inflation figures for Services and wages aren't good - were it not for historic energy prices that have a couple of months left in the figures inflation would be well above 3% - which is why that interest rate cut wasn't happening..

Bailey sounds primed for one next month though according to all the talking heads. Or will the inflation data surprise him again ?

wooliedyed · June 25

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Farage blew it with his Putin comments.

Interesting that two of the swingback modelling pollsters have the Tories hanging on at 25%, if Lab come in at 40/41 or so, 25% and up is the sort of level seat retention starts to increase in efficiency.
They are still just on the wrong side of total arse kicking hoping for a polling undermiss with some to complete hopelessness with others.

Grandcanyon · June 25

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Farage blew it with his Putin comments.

Only 1 out of the 4 polls taken thats shown a movement in that time period.

Stark_Dawning · June 25

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Farage blew it with his Putin comments.

Yes, Farage needs to resign - now too toxic. But who should be Reform's next leader? Tice is clearly too anonymous. Is Isabel Oakeshott a possibility? Could they even cut a deal with Lozza Fox?

SirNorfolkPassmore · June 25

Andy_JS said:

Malmesbury said:

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Farage blew it with his Putin comments.
Not exactly blew it, but put a ceiling on his success.
20% was very possible before. I wonder why he made such a stupid mistake.

Because of the side on which his bread is buttered.

eek · June 25

kinabalu said:

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:

Andy_JS said:
When a party is heading for a majority of 264 seats with 39.5% of the vote, as Electoral Calculus is currently forecasting, you know they must be distributing their vote very efficiently.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
Labour aren't really distributing any votes.
It's more that their opponents are splitting their votes very effectively.
Yup. The biggest factor is the RefCon split, and there's not very much Starmer can do about that.

(I'm not sure that there's much Reform or the Conservatives can do about it either in the short term, but hey ho.)

So Starmer might as well get on with governing well. And the 100 or so flukiest Labour MPs had best enjoy the ride.
It's good for SKS, I think. If he gets (say) a 250 majority he can mentally split it into 2 parts. A core majority of 150 and a dispensable frothy add-on of another 100. Rather like a pint of bitter with a big head on it. The 'head' he can use when spending political capital on the tough 'to govern is to choose' decisions he will need to take if he is to be a radical reforming PM in the progressive tradition. Normally a PM would have to be spending some of their real and actual majority when doing the hard controversial stuff. They'd be drinking their beer as it were. But Starmer can just pour away the head. He won't need to touch his ale until all of that has gone. Very nice position to be in.

And I think Starmer is going to need all the help he can get because the hand he's been dealt with when he enters Number 10 is just about the worst hand possible - seemingly with a few cards that aren't even part of the game..

SirNorfolkPassmore · June 25

Stark_Dawning said:

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Farage blew it with his Putin comments.
Yes, Farage needs to resign - now too toxic. But who should be Reform's next leader? Tice is clearly too anonymous. Is Isabel Oakeshott a possibility? Could they even cut a deal with Lozza Fox?

The idea that Farage is so toxic that they'd think about calling in Fox is entertaining.

malcolmg · June 25

eek said:

kjh said:

eek said:
FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.

It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.

I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.
So basically you are saying that nothing is going to stop people trying to get to the UK from France via boat illegally because nothing will deter them.

Good luck selling that on the doorsteps of Kent / Clacton (even though I agree with you)

they will only do something about it when it affects them.

Flatlander · June 25

Andy_JS said:

Malmesbury said:

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Farage blew it with his Putin comments.
Not exactly blew it, but put a ceiling on his success.
20% was very possible before. I wonder why he made such a stupid mistake.

My naughty conspiracy theory side says that he doesn't actually want to win any seats - just damage the Tories - and also wanted to get the tankie (ha!) talking point across for, er, reasons.

Most likely it is just what he believes.

Pulpstar · June 25

"Words of advice"

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/gang-imitation-ak-47-rifle-29410535

Wonder if I'd get "words of advice" if I took my airsoft rifle out in public...

Grandcanyon · June 25

Anabobazina said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Good question, it is in the MOE as you say, but nevertheless a notable drop. We shall see if it has any support from other polling.

At the moment it doesnt. Could be a rogue.

eek · June 25

malcolmg said:

eek said:

kjh said:

eek said:
FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.

It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.

I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.
So basically you are saying that nothing is going to stop people trying to get to the UK from France via boat illegally because nothing will deter them.

Good luck selling that on the doorsteps of Kent / Clacton (even though I agree with you)
they will only do something about it when it affects them.

did you read @kjh's argument - many of the people coming to the UKare going to come regardless of anything we do as it's literally their final 3rd / 4th / 5th rolling of the dice...

malcolmg · June 25

turbotubbs said:

kjh said:

turbotubbs said:

kjh said:

eek said:
FPT

kjh said:

Can I suggest listening to that interview. I am also amazed people risk their lives to leave a country that is perfectly safe and very pleasant, but of course it isn't as simple as that, as it never is. From memory he left Syria 10 years ago and went to Sweden, married, had children who went to school there, but was then being deported so ran again. I believe he was then threatened with deportation from Belgium and France. So this is why they risk their lives to leave other safe countries.

I don't know what the answer is, but this man lost his daughter as a consequence. People don't take these risks for trivial reasons.

So the man left Syria but was eventually thrown out of Sweden. He then ran to Belgium / france was threatened with Deportation so wanted to escape to the UK...

It's not a trivial reason why he wanted to escape to the UK but he's hardly a valid legitimate asylum seeker if 2 other countries have rejected his claim...
Not the point though is it? He could be a massive murderer for all I know. The point is it naive to say 'But France is safe'. These people have reasons for risking their lives.

It is bonkers to say these things will deter them when everything horrible so far hasn't.

I don't know what the answer is, but this isn't it. People just coming out with simplistic solutions that common sense says won't work.
They may have reasons but are they valid in the sense of a need to claim asylum in the UK? E.g. not speaking French so would prefer to be in England should not be a valid reason.
Everyone seems to be missing the point.

It does not matter whether he has a valid reason for coming here. He probably doesn't. He is just on the run from one country to the next. That is the whole point. Many/most of these people don't.

The whole point of my reply to Leon was it is naively simplistic to just say tow the boats back or say but France is safe. They are risking their lives to come here so they will continue trying. The reasons for doing so are complex.

So saying stuff like tow them back or France is safe might make us feel good but it solves nothing whatsoever does it?

I don't know what the solution is.
There are many issues. I think most people are united that they don't want anyone to risk their lives crossing the channel in a dingy. For some its about avoiding loss of life. For others it about avoiding having to deal with asylum seekers at all. How do you stop it? Starmer has a plan (apparently). Sunak has a stupid plan.

Starmer's will be stupid but expensive.

Stark_Dawning · June 25

Andy_JS said:

Malmesbury said:

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Farage blew it with his Putin comments.
Not exactly blew it, but put a ceiling on his success.
20% was very possible before. I wonder why he made such a stupid mistake.

Farage was showing signs that he believed he was politically invincible. All the 'wait till I've finished with Labour' stuff suggests he thinks he's some kind of superman. (I'm guessing he got this from Trump.)

Heathener · June 25

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nunu5 said:
I know it's highly unlikely.

But say the libdems and Reform get the same number of seats for second place and the speaker chooses the libdems as opposition leader even though reform get millions more votes .....how will that play out in the country?
The same people who said it was right for the Speaker (assuming it's still the silly old fud from Lancashire) to stuff the SNP Gaza motion for 'reasons' will say it's right for him to choose the LDs as the opposition for 'reasons'.
I doubt that. Labour would much rather have the Conservatives as official opposition. I don't say that as a comment on the ability of the Lib Dems or Conservatives to oppose (although frankly the Tories will be busy with their own civil war, weakening their effectiveness). It's more that Labour would want to set the next few years up as them fixing the mess "them lot over there" left - they need an enemy to play off, and the Lib Dems don't really fit the bill.

Totally agree

I think LibDems would be a much more awkward Opposition for Labour to face, especially if the tories do lurch even further to the right

Malmesbury · June 25

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Farage blew it with his Putin comments.
Yes, Farage needs to resign - now too toxic. But who should be Reform's next leader? Tice is clearly too anonymous. Is Isabel Oakeshott a possibility? Could they even cut a deal with Lozza Fox?
The idea that Farage is so toxic that they'd think about calling in Fox is entertaining.

Farage owns 8/15 shares in Reform UK Party Ltd - replacing him would be impossible. Unless he wants to go.

Grandcanyon · June 25

Stark_Dawning said:

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Farage blew it with his Putin comments.
Yes, Farage needs to resign - now too toxic. But who should be Reform's next leader? Tice is clearly too anonymous. Is Isabel Oakeshott a possibility? Could they even cut a deal with Lozza Fox?

Lol talk about over interpretation of 1 poll. 3 others in the same timeframe show reform basically unchanged.

Taz · June 25

Anecdotes are not SKS’s forte

https://x.com/treborrhurbarb/status/1805284507618054188?s=61

malcolmg · June 25

Heathener said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nunu5 said:
I know it's highly unlikely.

But say the libdems and Reform get the same number of seats for second place and the speaker chooses the libdems as opposition leader even though reform get millions more votes .....how will that play out in the country?
The same people who said it was right for the Speaker (assuming it's still the silly old fud from Lancashire) to stuff the SNP Gaza motion for 'reasons' will say it's right for him to choose the LDs as the opposition for 'reasons'.
I doubt that. Labour would much rather have the Conservatives as official opposition. I don't say that as a comment on the ability of the Lib Dems or Conservatives to oppose (although frankly the Tories will be busy with their own civil war, weakening their effectiveness). It's more that Labour would want to set the next few years up as them fixing the mess "them lot over there" left - they need an enemy to play off, and the Lib Dems don't really fit the bill.
Totally agree

I think LibDems would be a much more awkward Opposition for Labour to face, especially if the tories do lurch EVEN further to the right

Barking does not even begin to cover that

williamglenn · June 25

Theuniondivvie said:
Tough crowd. Needed a toolmaker gag - hur, hur, he said tool!

https://x.com/toryfibs/status/1805584056681144780?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

It's the way he tells them.

Leon · June 25

Nigelb said:

eek said:

Nigelb said:
Reposting from the last thread my suggested solution to the problems of the law on computer evidence -

Make failure to disclose exculpatory evidence a strict liability offence (as with eg breaches of health and safety regs), punishable by fines, and criminal prosecutions in the most egregious cases.

It would make prosecutors a great deal more scrupulous about discharging their legal responsibilities.

An easy win, offered free to the next Labour Justice Secretary.

(The alternative is spending years trying to come up with a fairer rule that's also practical.)
Or you use the Scottish approach that Computer Evidence is not by itself enough....
Disclosure has long been a problem in other cases not involving computer evidence, of course.

A mixture of tow back and Rwanda

Leon · June 25

I am sure that Reform drop is Farage’s Putin fuck up. He completely misread the British room and it was tone deaf

Taz · June 25

Heathener said:

johnt said:
The 2029 election might well see Labour wishing they had included electoral reform in their manifesto this time. The idea that because FPTP is working for them now they will get a few election victories is nonsense.
This is straw-clutching of the most desperate kind. Sorry to you and @TSE . You’re welcome to dream but if Labour get a 150+ seat majority the earliest election the Conservatives can be back in contention is 2033/4 and that’s if they get their shit together.

You just don’t seem to get it. They trashed their brand on economic competence. That takes a long time to restore.

They could survive Johnson and Partygate, but just like Black Wednesday in the nineties they could not survive the Trussterfuck.

wooliedyed · June 25

Malmesbury said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

*Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 25% (+2)
REF: 15% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?
Farage blew it with his Putin comments.
Yes, Farage needs to resign - now too toxic. But who should be Reform's next leader? Tice is clearly too anonymous. Is Isabel Oakeshott a possibility? Could they even cut a deal with Lozza Fox?
The idea that Farage is so toxic that they'd think about calling in Fox is entertaining.
Farage owns 8/15 shares in Reform UK Party Ltd - replacing him would be impossible. Unless he wants to go.

Old Lady Brady's superpowers are untested, maybe letters works on other parties too??!

algarkirk · June 25

Andy_JS said:
When a party is heading for a majority of 264 seats with 39.5% of the vote, as Electoral Calculus is currently forecasting, you know they must be distributing their vote very efficiently.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

Our GEs need to be understood differently. The global % is not the main factor. There are 650 local elections in which the rules are that you have to be FPTP to win, a rule all voters know. To win 457 of these local races (EC prediction currently) tells you that a remarkable achievement has been made; it cannot be done unless you are both top dog in the mind of an awful lot of people, and no-one else is especially well regarded across the board, finally that there isn't a large enough group of people who have a firm conviction that you must be stopped.

Other sorts of democracy are available, but ours is far from the worst. The party with national coverage which is most convincingly centrist is going to win. The votes overall will go overwhelmingly to historically centrist parties. This could be so much worse.

Finally, the outfit that wins 457 seats with under 40% of the vote can lose next time with 43% of the vote. To retain power it has to be better than the rest. We are in charge.

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