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When something is both little and large – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818

    Spinning off the Starmer as boring dad, I think all the national leaders can be rather pigeon-holed like that.

    Starmer - boring dad.
    Davey - fun uncle.
    Farage - drunk uncle.
    Sunak - weird cousin.

    That's actually quite good.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Leon said:

    Truss: kinky stepmom

    I’m getting really tired of the sexualisation of women by men on this site. @TSE did it earlier saying that the tories were going to get ‘stepmomed’. And you are one of the worst offenders Leon with your old man (well you’re 62) perviness.

    It’s odious and disgusting objectification of women. Please both of you, and others, desist. Thank you.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    TimS said:

    For the avoidance of doubt that wasn't the point.
    How likely is it that England will be out before next Thursday?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,635

    I don't at all rule out that a lot of these people are genuinely witty in real life.

    Presumably they’re ‘surprisingly down to earth’ as well.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    TimS said:

    Carla Denyer - intriguing but slightly scary cousin.
    Where do we put Rhun ap Iorwerth?
  • My lad has applied for me to cast a proxy vote on his behalf (for Labour), but I've not had any sort of notification. Should I expect any, or do I just simply go to the polling station and say I'm voting on his behalf, whereupon they check their records and say, "Ah yes, Mr Enjineeya, go ahead"?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,835
    Heathener said:

    I’m getting really tired of the sexualisation of women by men on this site. @TSE did it earlier saying that the tories were going to get ‘stepmomed’. And you are one of the worst offenders Leon with your old man (well you’re 62) perviness.

    It’s odious and disgusting objectification of women. Please both of you, and others, desist. Thank you.
    ISTR it being less than five days ago you declared that SKS was 'hot'.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, looks like Sunak has at least now kept the Tories second on votes and seats most likely.

    Can he cut the likely Labour majority though in the last week of the campaign?
    21 points behind with 9 days to go - quite a challenge and while I'm prepared to accept there has been a small move back from Reform to Conservative, we son't know how tactical voting will play out if at all let alone those who have already voted by post.

    Lots of questions, all the answers by July 5th.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    edited June 2024
    Nigelb said:

    Jenkins saying very clearly that he had absolutely no idea of any legal responsibilities on him as an expert witness.

    Either he's an extremely accomplished liar, or an utter and complete idiot.
    And whichever prosecutors that utilised him in the role, over a number of years, must have known which of the two things applies.

    ..The inquiry is shown a document annotated by Jenkins, from 2013, relating to a case against sub-postmistress Kim Wylie.
    That document contained a lengthy declaration setting out the legal obligations on being an expert witness.
    Underneath it, Jenkins wrote: "Standard stuff. No comment required."

    He clarifies to the inquiry lawyer that he meant "I had seen similar stuff before... I didn't think it (those obligations) applied to me, wrongly"...
  • boulay said:

    A lot of gains being realised I imagine. Lots of talk when it became No 1 company about a bubble and then loads of publicity, much more than before that milestone, will have spooked people on nice gains.

    People still around the market experienced the tech bubble so hopefully more cautious. I remember the head of marketing for one of the top tech funds walking in during the tech bubble to give a fund update to our floor and telling us it was probably time to start selling or taking the gains as the IFAs had started buying it (we had provided most of the early investment so they were v friendly). I’m sure there are IFAs telling their clients about this wonder stock Nvidia this week…
    As I understand it fund managers are judged on relatively short term metrics. This means that if they havent been filling clients boots with Nvidia they would be in trouble.

    This means more buyers and a higher price for Nvidia and the strong performance means they pile in more.

    So up and up we go. Until...See Cisco circa 2001 for futther information.

    Not advice. Do your own research etc..
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951

    Where do we put Rhun ap Iorwerth?
    Your aunt's handsome new boyfriend who owns a big farm somewhere.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Metropolitan Police sent information on five more officers over betting allegations

    The Gambling Commission has sent information on five more Metropolitan Police officers to the force over the election betting scandal. They are alleged to have placed bets relating to the timing of the general election."

    https://news.sky.com/story/election-2024-sunak-starmer-conservatives-labour-reform-lib-dem-12593360
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,609
    edited June 2024
    boulay said:

    We need some females in the family too.

    Angela - fun godmother.
    Liz - weird older half-sister
    Suella - evil stepmother.
    Georgia Meloni - au pair.
    Nicola Sturgeon - bitter spinster aunt.
    Nadine Dorries - cousin that you hide the gin from when she visits.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Cookie said:

    ISTR it being less than five days ago you declared that SKS was 'hot'.
    It’s the highly sexual innuendos to which I’m referring
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, looks like Sunak has at least now kept the Tories second on votes and seats most likely.

    Can he cut the likely Labour majority though in the last week of the campaign?
    Still looking relatively good for my prediction from a few days ago, which put the Tories on 25%.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited June 2024

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for
    @Telegraph

    📉Cons stablising, Reform UK stalling?

    🌹Lab 42 (=)
    🌳Con 21 (+2)
    ➡️Reform 14 (-2)
    🔶LD 10 (+1)
    🌍Green 5 (=)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 6 (=)

    2,318 UK adults

    21-24 June (chg from 19-21 June)
    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1805596414677848436?s=19

    Lets hope this is the start of a REF collapse. 🙏
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,844
    What happened here @DougSeal?

    Your first reaction to my comment was this:


    “Yes. You've been wondering that constantly on here for over a year. Keep wondering. How the hell do you get paid for this? One hopes one might stumble upon an original, let alone coherent, thought. It's like watching a toddler try to explain quantum physics with finger paint”


    But then you decided that my unoriginal and incoherent opinion was so childish and unimportant you went back and wrote an entirely different reaction here:


    “Oh, you wonder if Starmer is going to become extremely unpopular very quickly? That’s adorable. It's like wondering if a fish is going to get wet. The British public don't accidentally elect anyone. They knew exactly what they are doing, just like when they buy a crap sandwich at Pret. And as for looking on in horror let's not pretend we're surprised when the honeymoon phase ends. It’s politics. Not everyone can "surprise on the upside" like you so memorably predicted of Liz Truss.

    Let's indulge this fantasy that the British electorate, after all they've recently endured from their elected representatives, are suddenly going to clutch their pearls and swoon into disillusionment the moment Starmer says something. If we’re really going to dive into this alternate universe where voters are a fickle bunch of horrified onlookers, let’s do it right. We’ll need fainting couches on every street corner and smelling salts in every home.

    Reading your drivel is like watching a monkey solve a Rubik's cube—entertainingly improbable yet utterly pointless.”

    Maybe you should set up your own YouTube channel called “why we should ignore Leon’s pointless views” and do half hour lectures every three days on this subject which you then take on a national tour of empty cinemas you rent at great expense while wearing an IGNORE LEON tee shirt like some kind of Steve Bray but with LEON IS POINTLESS tattooed on your fucking tiny forehead
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, looks like Sunak has at least now kept the Tories second on votes and seats most likely.

    Can he cut the likely Labour majority though in the last week of the campaign?
    First question. No. Farage has done that for him.

    Second question. Yes. Labour are blowing the last week of this campaign by being too passive - aggressive Sunak and Cons can make real inroads into Labours lead now, if Labour remain so ineptly defensive is my estimation.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818
    edited June 2024
    Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.

    C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited June 2024
    Leon said:

    This surely confirms Farage’s fuck up. What an idiot

    He could have just sidestepped the question; he walked into an obvious trap
    Edit - I cannot read.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    Nicola Sturgeon - bitter spinster aunt.
    Nadine Dories - cousin that you hide the gin from when she visits.
    Daisy Cooper. - schoolteacher aunt who’s slightly frightening.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858
    kinabalu said:

    Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.

    C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.

    I'm *bored* that Starmer is winning. Because he is being terribly boring and inoffensive. Where's the umph?
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Heathener said:

    It’s the highly sexual innuendos to which I’m referring
    Every time you complain about innuendos, TSE is going to give you one.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,609

    First question. No. Farage has done that for him.

    Second question. Yes. Labour are blowing the last week of this campaign by being too passive - aggressive Sunak and Cons can make real inroads into Labours lead now, if Labour remain so ineptly defensive is my estimation.
    If Starmer was a football manager he would be Steve Clarke.
    If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,844
    kinabalu said:

    Why should we be interested in your 'plan' to stop the boats? It's a complex issue and you don't have the knowledge or skillset. Better to stop banging on about it and just wait and see what PM Starmer does. That's what's important. Not long now.
    I picture you saying this in that strangulated minor-golf-club-member driving-glove-wearing retired accountant voice just before you listen to some more toe tapping live music in an open air terrace in Tenerife
  • kinabalu said:

    Like "Peppa Pig" from the amusefest that was Boris Johnson wasn't the fucking cringiest thing ever from a politician.

    C'mon. Get a grip. Various people are just pissed off Starmer's winning.

    I think that was just pipped by his claim that he made models of buses out of wine boxes to relax. That was beyond weird.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    My lad has applied for me to cast a proxy vote on his behalf (for Labour), but I've not had any sort of notification. Should I expect any, or do I just simply go to the polling station and say I'm voting on his behalf, whereupon they check their records and say, "Ah yes, Mr Enjineeya, go ahead"?

    You’d normally receive a proxy card . It might be best to ring the council to see whether it’s been sent out .
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, June 21st - 24th 2024

    *Reform UK falls back, Labour lead at 16 points*

    Change on last week in brackets

    LAB: 41% (+1)
    CON: 25% (+2)
    REF: 15% (-3)
    LDEM: 11% (+2)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

    First sign of putin effect? Or just Margin of error stuff?

    Will be interesting to see if any other pollsters pick up this easing back of REF support.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Spinning off the Starmer as boring dad, I think all the national leaders can be rather pigeon-holed like that.

    Starmer - boring dad.
    Davey - fun uncle.
    Farage - drunk uncle.
    Sunak - weird cousin.

    I think Sunak is an Asian Frank Spencer

    Everything he touches ends up totally bolloxed
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    edited June 2024

    My lad has applied for me to cast a proxy vote on his behalf (for Labour), but I've not had any sort of notification. Should I expect any, or do I just simply go to the polling station and say I'm voting on his behalf, whereupon they check their records and say, "Ah yes, Mr Enjineeya, go ahead"?

    Yes, if a proxy has been appointed on your behalf, you and the proxy both get a letter of confirmation, shortly afterwards. And then poll cards accordingly.

    Give your council electoral registration department a ring
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,158

    If Starmer was a football manager he would be Steve Clarke.
    If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
    Ole Gunnar Solskaer.

    Winning champions league goal = furlough.

    Bad performance as manager due to his own shortcomings but terrible planning and situation left by predecessors = bad performance as PM due to his own shortcomings but terrible planning and situation left by predecessors.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951
    eek said:

    How likely is it that England will be out before next Thursday?
    Good question. So we're through to the last 16 but tonight determines against whom.

    If we end up runners up we play Germany on Saturday. So we would be out of the competition in plenty of time before the election. Maybe enough for people to refocus on politics.

    If we come third we play Portugal on Monday (evens whether we win that) or Romania on Tuesday (good chance of progressing).

    If we win the group we play any one of a wide range of teams: Austria (on current form we lose), Romania (win), Belgium (probably lose), Slovakia (win), Czechia (probably win).

    So I reckon there's a decent chance we are still in it at the start of next week, if not by election day. But for the electorate to refocus their attention in time we really need to be knocked out this weekend.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280

    If Starmer was a football manager he would be Steve Clarke.
    If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
    Sacked. By Accrington Stanley.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113

    Maybe the first signs of late swingback/Tories coming home? Very limited data but that's two today in that pattern
    'They're coming home, they coming home, they're coming, Tories coming home. 30 days of hurt, never stopped Rishi dreaming!'
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    edited June 2024
    The GSK vaccine is more effective (if I recall correctly).

    Britain snubs GSK in favour of US pharma giant for RSV vaccine
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-snubs-gsk-favour-us-170246487.html
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266
    edited June 2024
    Leon said:

    This surely confirms Farage’s fuck up. What an idiot

    He could have just sidestepped the question; he walked into an obvious trap
    I don't disagree, but:
    Refuk have roughly a tripling in support in polls in the last year. This is a 12.5% drop from previous poll.

    Contrast with:
    Leon said:

    You did note the bit which shows that their share price is up 150% this year, and this is a 16% drop?

    Refuk have both had a better year than nvidia and have experienced a smaller recent % drop.
  • GrandcanyonGrandcanyon Posts: 105
    Leon said:

    I picture you saying this in that strangulated minor-golf-club-member driving-glove-wearing retired accountant voice just before you listen to some more toe tapping live music in an open air terrace in Tenerife
    Lives in Hampstead and holidays in Tenerife lol. You can take the boy out of south yorkshire but..
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    Andy_JS said:

    "Metropolitan Police sent information on five more officers over betting allegations

    The Gambling Commission has sent information on five more Metropolitan Police officers to the force over the election betting scandal. They are alleged to have placed bets relating to the timing of the general election."

    https://news.sky.com/story/election-2024-sunak-starmer-conservatives-labour-reform-lib-dem-12593360

    I ‘hope’ said police persons are actually somewhere near the action. I’d hate to think any one was prevented from having an innocent flutter because of their job.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    GIN1138 said:

    Will be interesting to see if any other pollsters pick up this easing back of REF support.
    Be interesting if the pollsters with the larger Reform shares find it. Redfield yesterday didn't of course
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,158

    I think Sunak is an Asian Frank Spencer

    Everything he touches ends up totally bolloxed
    Why an “Asian” Frank Spencer? Why not just “Frank Spencer”? Believe it or not, Frank Spencer is as British as Rishi.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075
    Leon said:

    This surely confirms Farage’s fuck up. What an idiot

    He could have just sidestepped the question; he walked into an obvious trap
    Not quite true. He was invited to flip flop on something has has often said he believes in for the last decade,
    Problem is, even if Farage is right - he absolutely isn’t by the way - that EU expansion paved the way to war, it would be far too subtle and complex to convince the British electorate that evil Putin is our Uncle Vlad.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    If REF are about to collapse. Farage will start threatening to sue the pants of all the pollsters :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited June 2024

    Tough crowd. Needed a toolmaker gag - hur, hur, he said tool!

    https://x.com/toryfibs/status/1805584056681144780?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    To be fair, stand up comedy is so poor these days, that with a little bit of routining it could pass for a Live at the Apollo set. I mean Nish Kumar has made a career out of shouting BREXIT and RACIST.
  • I think that was just pipped by his claim that he made models of buses out of wine boxes to relax. That was beyond weird.
    I suspect it was to confuse google etc.

    Ensured people doing a websearch on Boris Bus or similar got painted wine boxes instead of the /£350 million a year 2016 bus.
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 316

    My lad has applied for me to cast a proxy vote on his behalf (for Labour), but I've not had any sort of notification. Should I expect any, or do I just simply go to the polling station and say I'm voting on his behalf, whereupon they check their records and say, "Ah yes, Mr Enjineeya, go ahead"?

    I used to have a proxy vote for ny brother, years ago, when he was in the army, I know you need photo ID now, but pretty sure I just use to go to the polling station, and as you say, they have it on their records, if you are in any doubt, speak to the labour party, I'm sure they will be only to pleased to put you straight, considering your son wishes to vote for them
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266

    If Starmer was a football manager he would be Steve Clarke.
    If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
    ...England manager :hushed:

    (hopefully not!)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited June 2024

    I ‘hope’ said police persons are actually somewhere near the action. I’d hate to think any one was prevented from having an innocent flutter because of their job.
    “The officers are based on the Royalty and Specialist Command, the Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection Command and the Central West Basic Command Unit. None of them work in a close protection role."

    So close, but not immediate. Somebody has been blabbing. This in when you get into tricky territory. My mate at the office say his mate works with Sunak and Sunak was overhead saying July....is that too different from my mate says he has a mate working at the stables and such and such a horse is running crazy good times.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    Leon said:

    This surely confirms Farage’s fuck up. What an idiot

    He could have just sidestepped the question; he walked into an obvious trap
    It's more than just a few points in the polls, though. It absolutely ends any chance of a post-election merger (RefUK won't get enough seats) and hopefully ends all possibility of Farage being welcomed into the Conservative ranks even if Patel or Braverman get the leadership gig.

    It's all well and good debating geopolitics from a realpolitk perspective on an anoymous internet forum or in the even greater anonymity of an international relations department of a second rate university.

    But Farage came out with comments supportive of a hostile foreign power at a time when we're in a (proxy) war with them, at a time when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, our allies, are paying in blood to free their country of Russian invaders. And he did this on national TV.

    In the unlikely event Farage did worm his way into the Conservative party, you can imagine plenty of moderates quitting the party in disgust, or crossing over to the Lib Dems.

    Farage's gaffe may well have ended his political ambitions and saved the Conservative party at the same time.

  • GrandcanyonGrandcanyon Posts: 105
    TimS said:

    Good question. So we're through to the last 16 but tonight determines against whom.

    If we end up runners up we play Germany on Saturday. So we would be out of the competition in plenty of time before the election. Maybe enough for people to refocus on politics.

    If we come third we play Portugal on Monday (evens whether we win that) or Romania on Tuesday (good chance of progressing).

    If we win the group we play any one of a wide range of teams: Austria (on current form we lose), Romania (win), Belgium (probably lose), Slovakia (win), Czechia (probably win).

    So I reckon there's a decent chance we are still in it at the start of next week, if not by election day. But for the electorate to refocus their attention in time we really need to be knocked out this weekend.
    Doesnt say much for the electorate does it to be fair.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,844
    edited June 2024

    I suspect it was to confuse google etc.

    Ensured people doing a websearch on Boris Bus or similar got painted wine boxes instead of the /£350 million a year 2016 bus.
    No. Apparently it is true

    Someone went round to interview him years ago and saw them: wine boxes painted as buses with little people inside - seriously

    Its like farmy-farm but real
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    Be interesting if the pollsters with the larger Reform shares find it. Redfield yesterday didn't of course
    YouGov are usually pretty good at picking up changes early so hopefully we'll have another YG poll soon.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,688

    If Starmer was a football manager he would be Steve Clarke.
    If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
    Gareth Sunak :lol:
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,568
    boulay said:

    We need some females in the family too.

    Angela - fun godmother.
    Liz - weird older half-sister
    Suella - evil stepmother.
    Georgia Meloni - au pair.
    The au pair is more Sanna Marin, prim and proper in the house looking after the kids, but
    one step outside and....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818

    A great political legacy? Have you become a Brexit convert?
    Ha, no, but sort of. Brexit has (amazingly) delivered a tangible benefit. The ruination of the Tory Party. And this is Starmer's golden political legacy. The gift of a huge majority yet with an expectations bar (because it's been set by those ruined Tories) that is so low he would need to be beyond terrible at the job to fail to clear it. Talk about being in the right place at the right time. Two terms nailed on. The chance to run the UK for a decade or more. Wow. But it is such a shame he can't tell a good joke and crack us all up. That could spoil everything. He needs to work on that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,844
    kyf_100 said:

    It's more than just a few points in the polls, though. It absolutely ends any chance of a post-election merger (RefUK won't get enough seats) and hopefully ends all possibility of Farage being welcomed into the Conservative ranks even if Patel or Braverman get the leadership gig.

    It's all well and good debating geopolitics from a realpolitk perspective on an anoymous internet forum or in the even greater anonymity of an international relations department of a second rate university.

    But Farage came out with comments supportive of a hostile foreign power at a time when we're in a (proxy) war with them, at a time when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, our allies, are paying in blood to free their country of Russian invaders. And he did this on national TV.

    In the unlikely event Farage did worm his way into the Conservative party, you can imagine plenty of moderates quitting the party in disgust, or crossing over to the Lib Dems.

    Farage's gaffe may well have ended his political ambitions and saved the Conservative party at the same time.

    Yes. It was possibly the biggest gaffe of the campaign - with some stiff competition from the Tories

    As others on PB have noted it sounded like a MAGA talking point. The kind of stuff you can get away with in America but not in Europe and certainly not in the UK

    Crass
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075

    Be interesting if the pollsters with the larger Reform shares find it. Redfield yesterday didn't of course
    And we said “patience” yesterday, the Reform collapse is coming.

    As so many PBers pointed out on here, Reform were taking most from Con but were taking Lab too, Red wallers etc. The froth on top of high Ref polls could go Lab, it won’t just be all Ref to Con and closing gap to Lab over coming week. Lab 43 or 44% PV and 13M votes is very much on with the Reform crash.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,844
    kinabalu said:

    Ha, no, but sort of. Brexit has (amazingly) delivered a tangible benefit. The ruination of the Tory Party. And this is Starmer's golden political legacy. The gift of a huge majority yet with an expectations bar (because it's been set by those ruined Tories) that is so low he would need to be beyond terrible at the job to fail to clear it. Talk about being in the right place at the right time. Two terms nailed on. The chance to run the UK for a decade or more. Wow. But it is such a shame he can't tell a good joke and crack us all up. That could spoil everything. He needs to work on that.
    Why are you so weirdly hurt and defensive when people point out that starmer is definitely not a comedian and tells cringey jokes?

    Quite odd. He’s about to win a massive majority (as you note). What does it matter if people are a bit
    mean about his stiff persona?

    He’s still gonna win. Chill
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818
    Leon said:

    Starmer is a fucking freak but he’s still getting my vote
    Well he isn't, obviously. And lack of the technique and pizazz to do effective live comedy hardly maps to "fucking freak".

    What is this obsession you have with politicians needing to be talented comics? I find it a bit bizarre.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    kinabalu said:

    Why should we be interested in your 'plan' to stop the boats? It's a complex issue and you don't have the knowledge or skillset. Better to stop banging on about it and just wait and see what PM Starmer does. That's what's important. Not long now.
    Indeed it is a complex issue. People say the Rwanda scheme failed. But Rwanda managed to screw £300 million out of a desperate UK without having to host a single asylum seeker. That's definitely a success for Rwanda.
  • GrandcanyonGrandcanyon Posts: 105

    And we said “patience” yesterday, the Reform collapse is coming.

    As so many PBers pointed out on here, Reform were taking most from Con but were taking Lab too, Red wallers etc. The froth on top of high Ref polls could go Lab, it won’t just be all Ref to Con and closing gap to Lab over coming week. Lab 43 or 44% PV and 13M votes is very much on with the Reform crash.
    A moderate reform fall wont help the tories much. Much of that support will go to labour or stay at home.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,331
    LEON IS POINTLESS
  • GrandcanyonGrandcanyon Posts: 105
    kyf_100 said:

    It's more than just a few points in the polls, though. It absolutely ends any chance of a post-election merger (RefUK won't get enough seats) and hopefully ends all possibility of Farage being welcomed into the Conservative ranks even if Patel or Braverman get the leadership gig.

    It's all well and good debating geopolitics from a realpolitk perspective on an anoymous internet forum or in the even greater anonymity of an international relations department of a second rate university.

    But Farage came out with comments supportive of a hostile foreign power at a time when we're in a (proxy) war with them, at a time when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, our allies, are paying in blood to free their country of Russian invaders. And he did this on national TV.

    In the unlikely event Farage did worm his way into the Conservative party, you can imagine plenty of moderates quitting the party in disgust, or crossing over to the Lib Dems.

    Farage's gaffe may well have ended his political ambitions and saved the Conservative party at the same time.

    As an over interpretation of one poll this takes the biscuit.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,268
    FPT: In the US, in recent decades, most vote fraud has been committed with postal ballots, for a simple reason: they need not be secret. I suspect the same applies in the UK.

    So, if I wanted to "rig" an election in the UK, I would encourage the use of postal ballots, and I would concentrate on areas where the voters, or their parents and grandparents, come from places where vote fraud is common.



  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    Leon said:

    Yes. It was possibly the biggest gaffe of the campaign - with some stiff competition from the Tories

    As others on PB have noted it sounded like a MAGA talking point. The kind of stuff you can get away with in America but not in Europe and certainly not in the UK

    Crass
    I think it might go down as one of the all time gaffes.

    There's a parallel universe where Farage picked up another 2-3% over the last couple of weeks of the campaign, scored 7+ seats, merged with the Tories, became LOTO and would be challenging a tired Kier Starmer in 2029 for PM, after 5 years of tax rises, high immigration, high unemployment (AI job losses really beginning to bite), and general economic malaise. And I reckon we might just have had PM Nige in 2029.

    All gone now. Zero chance.
  • As an over interpretation of one poll this takes the biscuit.
    It is two (with one contemporary poll showing an increase)

    So too early to say, but could be indicative of peaking and swingback starting as the ballot paper starts to concentrate minds.

    There will be a good few Big Gs out there.
  • “The officers are based on the Royalty and Specialist Command, the Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection Command and the Central West Basic Command Unit. None of them work in a close protection role."

    So close, but not immediate. Somebody has been blabbing. This in when you get into tricky territory. My mate at the office say his mate works with Sunak and Sunak was overhead saying July....is that too different from my mate says he has a mate working at the stables and such and such a horse is running crazy good times.
    Yes, because the Police have an ethical responsibility to uphold the law and be responsible, especially if they're in a position of trust like Diplomatic Protection etc

    Breaking that trust for personal gain ought to be considered gross misconduct IMHO.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951
    Imagine if opinion polls were banned during elections. The suspense now, and the shock come election night.

    Parties would still have their own private polling and canvas returns. So we’d be here interpreting what internal party messaging was saying, or where the party leaders were visiting.

    I think they should ban election polling, for the drama.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    There’s still the QT programme with Farage to come .

    So that could be another moment of danger for Reform .

    Alternatively it might be an opportunity to repair some of the possible damage . I suspect Farage is going to double down on what he said .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    kyf_100 said:

    I think it might go down as one of the all time gaffes.

    There's a parallel universe where Farage picked up another 2-3% over the last couple of weeks of the campaign, scored 7+ seats, merged with the Tories, became LOTO and would be challenging a tired Kier Starmer in 2029 for PM, after 5 years of tax rises, high immigration, high unemployment (AI job losses really beginning to bite), and general economic malaise. And I reckon we might just have had PM Nige in 2029.
    So did he; he talked about it a week ago.
    Hubris.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    FPT: In the US, in recent decades, most vote fraud has been committed with postal ballots, for a simple reason: they need not be secret. I suspect the same applies in the UK.

    So, if I wanted to "rig" an election in the UK, I would encourage the use of postal ballots, and I would concentrate on areas where the voters, or their parents and grandparents, come from places where vote fraud is common.

    And how would you manage to get control of sufficient votes to make more than a minor difference ?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955

    As an over interpretation of one poll this takes the biscuit.
    I cannot imagine a world where staunch Conservatives, decent sorts like Big G, Casino and HYUFD accept Farage into their party or as their leader. Nor, I'm assuming, would they ever vote Reform.

    That means that even if Farage does well in Clacton and spends the next 5 years banging the anti-immigration drum from the backbenches, 2029 will probably end up as a re-run of 2024 with the right wing vote split down the middle between Con and RefUK.

    A better scenario would be the Conservatives getting their act together, understanding why they got a shellacking, becoming a decent centre-right opposition party, and consigning Farage and his lot to the dustbin by 2029.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    TimS said:

    Imagine if opinion polls were banned during elections. The suspense now, and the shock come election night.

    Parties would still have their own private polling and canvas returns. So we’d be here interpreting what internal party messaging was saying, or where the party leaders were visiting.

    I think they should ban election polling, for the drama.

    Many countries ban polling close to the election . I don’t think we should get an outright ban even it adds to the drama !
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075

    If Starmer was a football manager he would be Steve Clarke.
    If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
    …suspending kit man, analyst, press officer, and Roxy the Receptionist for betting breaches.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818
    edited June 2024

    I'm *bored* that Starmer is winning. Because he is being terribly boring and inoffensive. Where's the umph?
    This bit is 'win the election' and barring a mega shock it's going to be a resounding success. Then, 5/7 onwards, he's PM. Will he be boring, cautious, ineffectual? Or will he be a good, maybe very good, PM who'll relax a bit more in public over time?

    I hope and expect the second, but who knows? What I do know is that people writing him off on the basis he hasn't been a thrill-a-minute as Opposition Leader or in this GE campaign are mainly engaging in prejudice-informed guesswork.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    nico679 said:

    There’s still the QT programme with Farage to come .

    So that could be another moment of danger for Reform .

    Alternatively it might be an opportunity to repair some of the possible damage . I suspect Farage is going to double down on what he said .

    At his big rally the other day he was doubling down on this, complete with comedy over sized prop of an old headline where Boris had been reportedly said something very similar to Farage....so yes, he is giving it I was wise and saw this coming, rather than I am a useful idiot for Putin. If that washes is another matter.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Leon said:

    No. Apparently it is true

    Someone went round to interview him years ago and saw them: wine boxes painted as buses with little people inside - seriously

    Its like farmy-farm but real
    But being photographed ensured the "improved" google hits on google images. Think about it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Nigelb said:

    Rwanda would certainly be more of a practical deterrent to rogue prosecutors than it's likely to be to asylum seekers. But where were you proposing to tow prosecutors back to ?
    International waters
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,317
    Heathener said:

    I’m getting really tired of the sexualisation of women by men on this site. @TSE did it earlier saying that the tories were going to get ‘stepmomed’. And you are one of the worst offenders Leon with your old man (well you’re 62) perviness.

    It’s odious and disgusting objectification of women. Please both of you, and others, desist. Thank you.
    IIUC Leon isn't 62.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    Nigelb said:

    And how would you manage to get control of sufficient votes to make more than a minor difference ?
    + the reason why postal fraud works in the States is because it's the votes arriving after the election date that creates all the issues when things run late.

    You don't get that in the UK because if your postal vote isn't in the hands of the correct people by 10pm on July 4th it doesn't count.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    malcolmg said:

    International waters
    There aren't any in the English Channel/La Manche. That's the killer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited June 2024
    Jezza with manperson-hole spotting, Boris with wine box buses, Sunak with this coke addiction, Starmer trading friendship bracelets.
  • nico679 said:

    Many countries ban polling close to the election . I don’t think we should get an outright ban even it adds to the drama !
    The argument is that the opinion polls influence the voters unduly.

    Which if it ends up as NOM because various Labour voters stay at home and various others dont vote tactically and vote libdem and green and sundry tories turn out because losing is one thing, 200 majorities for socialists is another, that might prove a valid point.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,835
    Leon said:

    Yes. It was possibly the biggest gaffe of the campaign - with some stiff competition from the Tories

    As others on PB have noted it sounded like a MAGA talking point. The kind of stuff you can get away with in America but not in Europe and certainly not in the UK

    Crass
    Gaffe to me (perhaps wrongly) implies some mildly humorous misstep. Whereas this is something darker. Nigel - and indeed much of Reform - appear to be making no secret of their admiration for Putin: a man who is both a baddie morally and a major threat to the UK. It's not even a position where the UK might have to deal with some morally questionable dictator for the third world for its own wider purposes, or even if there is any internal constituency it is trying to placate; associating with Putin is AFAICS all downside.

    It's a mystery to me. Personally I might be in the market for a low tax/low immigration socially conservative party. But not if it involves getting into bed with Putin. I don't see why any party would add that to their portfolio of beliefs.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Live blog - Gareth Jenkins evidence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cmjjjg8drggt
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,844
    kinabalu said:

    This bit is 'win the election' and barring a mega shock it's going to be a resounding success. Then, 5/7 onwards, he's PM. Will he be boring, cautious, ineffectual? Or will he be a good, maybe very good, PM who'll relax a bit more in public over time?

    I hope and expect the second, but who knows? What I do know is that people writing him off on the basis he hasn't been a thrill-a-minute as Opposition Leader or in this GE campaign are mainly engaging in prejudice-informed guesswork.
    No, we’re just mocking his cringe. In my comment immediately after my mockery (which seems to have upset so many of you so weirdly) I actually say This won’t matter as long as he learns from it. We don’t want or need him to be funny so he doesn’t have to try and he shouldn’t even try

    After the last few years we will take dull but competent if he can manage it. We all know he has a tough task (I expect him to fail but I genuinely hope he succeeds)

    What we don’t want is an inept politician who also makes us cringe. That will be damaging. Quit the gags Sir Kir
  • GrandcanyonGrandcanyon Posts: 105

    It is two (with one contemporary poll showing an increase)

    So too early to say, but could be indicative of peaking and swingback starting as the ballot paper starts to concentrate minds.

    There will be a good few Big Gs out there.
    theres JLP Partners which is the other.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited June 2024
    Farooq said:

    "Let's take some questions from the audience... we've got a lady from Ukraine, where is she, oh yes there you are. Daryna, what's your question please?"
    [there ensues an argument where Farage tells a refugee that Putin killed her twin brother because of Donald Tusk or something]
    Nailed on the sort of stunt BBC will pull, complete with tear jerking backstory, relative tortured by the Russian, son who died on the front line...then next up a trans-right activist....then an migrant who came to the UK fleeing war on a small boat and now an internationally renowned brain surgeon.
  • GrandcanyonGrandcanyon Posts: 105
    ok seen it now.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,317

    If Starmer was a football manager he would be Steve Clarke.
    If Sunak was a football manager he would be ……?
    ...The Damned United
  • Seems like SKS knows a lot more about being popular than PB since his approval ratings have consistently gone up throughout the campaign. Time to accept that his judgment of the public mood has been far more on point for the last three years than many here.
  • Nailed on the sort of stunt BBC will pull, complete with tear jerking backstory, relative tortured by the Russian, son who died on the front line...then next up a trans-right activist....then an migrant who came to the UK fleeing war on a small boat and now an internationally renowned brain surgeon.
    Upon which they tut at the Putin stuff and remember why they were so angry at the Tories for letting this loose on their watch* and vote for Fargle anyway.

    Point of order. It was let loose by Labours equality act but didnt get above the radar until the Tories were in power.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Andy_JS said:

    Live blog - Gareth Jenkins evidence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cmjjjg8drggt

    ..The inquiry is shown written evidence from barrister Warwick Tatford, who acted for the Post Office in the trial of wrongly convicted sub-postmaster Seema Misra.
    Tatford wrote that he told Jenkins he was "under a duty to provide a full disclosure" of known Horizon errors and bugs to Misra's lawyers at the time of that case.
    Jenkins now says he has "no recollection of such a discussion", adding: "I don't believe it would have occurred."..


    I'm not sure this 'I was an expert witness for years, but had no idea what that meant' line is going to hold up for very long.

    We're only at day 1 of 4.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Taz said:
    I thought he came across really well . I just don’t get this hate for Starmer from some people .
  • GrandcanyonGrandcanyon Posts: 105
    The drop in reform vote is almost entirely due to the female vote.

    https://x.com/RestIsPolitics/status/1805589400631251215
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Carnyx said:

    There aren't any in the English Channel/La Manche. That's the killer.
    In this case, Leon was (somewhat weirdly) talking about prosecutors.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,844
    Cookie said:

    Gaffe to me (perhaps wrongly) implies some mildly humorous misstep. Whereas this is something darker. Nigel - and indeed much of Reform - appear to be making no secret of their admiration for Putin: a man who is both a baddie morally and a major threat to the UK. It's not even a position where the UK might have to deal with some morally questionable dictator for the third world for its own wider purposes, or even if there is any internal constituency it is trying to placate; associating with Putin is AFAICS all downside.

    It's a mystery to me. Personally I might be in the market for a low tax/low immigration socially conservative party. But not if it involves getting into bed with Putin. I don't see why any party would add that to their portfolio of beliefs.
    Fair. I was using gaffe in its loosest sense - a verbal error which is damaging

    It can be that and also the more serious evidence of moral failure that you cite

    I am one of the few PBers who is open to some populist right wingery but it made me think YUK - not least coz I’ve just come back from Ukraine and seen the widows and mothers weeping in maidan square

    So even though I see sense in Farage’s argument - I believe we did handle Russia badly - Farage got it all badly wrong: tone, timing, sentiment - and he made a lot of people remember his prior links to putinism

    Tsk and ugh
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    The drop in reform vote is almost entirely due to the female vote.

    https://x.com/RestIsPolitics/status/1805589400631251215

    Interesting. Maybe they dislike Putin even more than men do.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Taz said:

    Given the number of shares sold recently by its directors it was always on the cards, or had a strong chance. If they’re profit taking why won’t other investors.
    It was always going to happen given the way it has risen, still be rich if you had shares in it. If you have index, IT's, ETF's etc then it has had minimimal impact since Friday, down a fraction overall
This discussion has been closed.