https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
I am keen to hear the reasoning that sent Sunak out to make his election-announcing speech in the pouring rain, without an umbrella, and with Steve Bray making Sunak barely audible
Looking back that was probably the high point of the campaign. All downhill since
I think it was a rapid decision (possibly encouraged by people wanting to make a few quid betting) by people who didn't realise that there were very limited places where a political (none Government) announcement could be made.
Hence no backup venue booked so Rishi ended up standing in the rain ruining a suit...
On placard watch, i can confirm Norwich South Labour have woken up and started sticking up garden placards. Greens still havent bothered, one Reform spotted, LDs and Tories have forgotten where Norwich is and The Party of Women are not yet on display outside my poll card
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
Surely a lot of people will never be involved in politics ever again.
What I would be very curious about is that if there was any point where the Tories felt they could still turn it around. I think at Pb we all knew this was impossible but I wonder if Sunak genuinely believed he would still win.
Sunak. I don not think so. He will have his new future beyond the Tory party planned out.
I was pondering this. How much of his preplanned future will still be available to him if (big if) he’s the man who led the Tories to an ELE?
Corporate America cares more about a firm handshake and nice teeth than previous incompetence or corruption.
Speaking of which, I see that the DOJ has finally developed enough of a backbone to criminally charge Boeing.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
I am keen to hear the reasoning that sent Sunak out to make his election-announcing speech in the pouring rain, without an umbrella, and with Steve Bray making Sunak barely audible
Looking back that was probably the high point of the campaign. All downhill since
I think it was a rapid decision (possibly encouraged by people wanting to make a few quid betting) by people who didn't realise that there were very limited places where a political (none Government) announcement could be made.
Hence no backup venue booked so Rishi ended up standing in the rain ruining a suit...
And no one in Number Ten owns an umbrella???
This was in Downing Street. Surrounded by tacky souvenir shops. It would have taken them 2 minutes to nip out and buy a Union Jack umbrella - providing a patriotic and jaunty image
Instead they sent him out to get drenched and look insane and sad
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
I don't, much. But the post election resentments are going to hamper efforts to rebuild, which is why it's of at least some interest.
It's why Labour are going to have at least 2 terms in power - the Tory party needs to get to the point where it wants to win an election not argue over (invalid reasons on) how they lost power....
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
He's not going to experience a Charles Kennedy moment after losing his seat but I do worry for him.
Obviously, one has to feel some human sympathy for people in these sorts of circumstances - the nature of elections is that some people win and some lose, but it obviously affects people in different ways.
However, I do wonder whether it will all be a bit of a relief for some of those MPs who lose. Westminster isn't necessarily great for people's mental health, and the mood among Tories who remain after 4th July is unlikely to be that great. A bit of time with family, taking a holiday and so on may not be the worst outcome.
Kennedy was a different case, of course. Being an MP was his whole life from a very young age, he'd been having issues over a period of time, his marriage had ended and so on. It remains extremely sad.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
I am keen to hear the reasoning that sent Sunak out to make his election-announcing speech in the pouring rain, without an umbrella, and with Steve Bray making Sunak barely audible
Looking back that was probably the high point of the campaign. All downhill since
I think it was a rapid decision (possibly encouraged by people wanting to make a few quid betting) by people who didn't realise that there were very limited places where a political (none Government) announcement could be made.
Hence no backup venue booked so Rishi ended up standing in the rain ruining a suit...
And no one in Number Ten owns an umbrella???
This was in Downing Street. Surrounded by tacky souvenir shops. It would have taken them 2 minutes to nip out and buy a Union Jack umbrella - providing a patriotic and jaunty image
Instead they sent him out to get drenched and look insane and sad
point 2 - the No 10 and CCHQ press office hate Rishi - that or SKS has a Genie who forgot to limit the number of wishes is just about the only plausible explanation for the Tory election performance.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
Surely a lot of people will never be involved in politics ever again.
What I would be very curious about is that if there was any point where the Tories felt they could still turn it around. I think at Pb we all knew this was impossible but I wonder if Sunak genuinely believed he would still win.
Sunak. I don not think so. He will have his new future beyond the Tory party planned out.
I was pondering this. How much of his preplanned future will still be available to him if (big if) he’s the man who led the Tories to an ELE?
I think he'll be ok. Clegg didn't seem to suffer too much from causing the annihilation of the Lid Dems.
I find it hard to imagine Sunak on the after-dinner speaking circuit , but May apparently did well enough, so who knows?
Ok. Silicon valley. Join Clegg at Meta or work for Microsoft.Work for Jamie Diamond at JP Morgan.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
I am keen to hear the reasoning that sent Sunak out to make his election-announcing speech in the pouring rain, without an umbrella, and with Steve Bray making Sunak barely audible
Looking back that was probably the high point of the campaign. All downhill since
I think it was a rapid decision (possibly encouraged by people wanting to make a few quid betting) by people who didn't realise that there were very limited places where a political (none Government) announcement could be made.
Hence no backup venue booked so Rishi ended up standing in the rain ruining a suit...
And no one in Number Ten owns an umbrella???
This was in Downing Street. Surrounded by tacky souvenir shops. It would have taken them 2 minutes to nip out and buy a Union Jack umbrella - providing a patriotic and jaunty image
Instead they sent him out to get drenched and look insane and sad
For me, the election is over. Postal votes winging their way to the Acting Returning Officer following the 9am collection from out local post box. (Which, incidentally, is the only collection of the day.)
After a "lively discussion", I convinced my eco-authoritarian spouse to vote Labour in order to get rid of Sir Philip, rather than spoiling her ballot.
Millions like us can switch off from the campaign and focus on the footy.
The "supermajority" argument is probably the best thing they have left (I do wish our politicians would stop mis-importing and misusing US terms like this, and gerrymandering). I think it will play reasonably well once the gambling stuff leaves the headlines.
I expect to see many many voters doing a BigG in the last days before the election and returning home to the Conservatives. The Farage Russia material gives them the excuse to do so, along with the fear of a giant Labour majority. So when the bongs finish at 10pm on the 4th I expect everyone to be rather surprised by the exit poll.
Am I just paranoid after so many elections when the anti-Tory vote flattered to deceive? I hope so, and I hope not to experience yet again that deflated feeling as the announcer says "and the Liberal Democrats...they'll be disappointed with that I think. They were expecting big things in the blue wall but the Conservatives look to have held on better than expected".
Talking of “gerrymandering” I learnt the other week that it is correctly pronounced with a hard “G” not like Jerry after how Elbridge Gerry’s surname was pronounced (and the surname still pronounced so).
The straight swing of Tory voters at the last general election to Labour is actually lower than it was in 1997. Opinium for instance has Labour only on 40% in its latest poll ie below the 43% New Labour got in 1997 and no higher than Corbyn got in 2017. The LDs are also polling no higher than the 12% they got in 2019 and also lower than the 16% they got in 1997.
The reason the Tories are polling under 20% in some polls is that Reform are polling at or above UKIP 2015 levels, mainly at Tory expense. Rishi therefore needs to squeeze the ReformUK as well as Labour vote in his final head to head debate with Starmer this week and hope Farage's Putin comments have damaged him
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
I am keen to hear the reasoning that sent Sunak out to make his election-announcing speech in the pouring rain, without an umbrella, and with Steve Bray making Sunak barely audible
Looking back that was probably the high point of the campaign. All downhill since
I think it was a rapid decision (possibly encouraged by people wanting to make a few quid betting) by people who didn't realise that there were very limited places where a political (none Government) announcement could be made.
Hence no backup venue booked so Rishi ended up standing in the rain ruining a suit...
And no one in Number Ten owns an umbrella???
This was in Downing Street. Surrounded by tacky souvenir shops. It would have taken them 2 minutes to nip out and buy a Union Jack umbrella - providing a patriotic and jaunty image
Instead they sent him out to get drenched and look insane and sad
Perhaps they feared 'wally with the brolly' comments.
Did they even need to make a personal announcement at all ?
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Also: they knew the terrible migration stats were in the post. They must have seen them beforehand and winced. And still they went for an election???
Why not just hang on until winter when they might have sent some full planes to Rwanda and the boat people take a break anyway
None of it adds up - unless there is some obscured and occulted reason we cannot see
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
He had enough of dealing with two faced individuals. He did the right thing. Now the country can move while he moves out.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
He's given up and went into the campaign demob happy.
Before I disappear back into the garden again I'd just like to draw everyone's attention to tomorrow's big event in the Post Office Inquiry.
Gareth Jenkins begins four days of testimony. The sheer length of the inquisition says everything about his significance. He designed the infamous Horizon system and appeared as an Expert Witness for the Post Office. His failure to mention to the Courts the fallibility of the software contributed to numerous unfair convictions. He was,in short, a tainted witness.
How is he going to play it?
He is one of the few to have been questioned already by the Police in respect of possible charges of perjury and conspiracy to pervert the course of justice. The evidence against him appears overwhelming and it is almost certain he would have been charged by now but for the CPS's policy of waiting for the Inquiry to report.
He is over 70 years old. He faces a long stretch if convicted. Will he turn King's Evidence? You might think that would be his best chance. He is not a PO man, so he owes little to the likes of Vennells and Perkins. On the other hand, he is doubtless being supported by his former employer, Fujitsu, if only through the payment of his legal fees. They presumably pay his pension too, so one expects him to be restrained in any criticism of them. How far that helps the PO is difficult to judge. There has been a bit of a blame game going on between F & the PO, but it hasn't broken out into open warfare - yet.
We'll probably know within the first twenty minutes which way his evidence is going to go. Starts 9.45 am. Should be worth getting the popcorn in.
Still can't see the Tories collecting less than 20% of the vote on July 4th but it is certainly becoming a less outrageous idea than it once was. Swingback is dead.
Well I must admit I thought they would be narrowing the gap and they aren’t.
Lots of factors I guess. Labour have had to do very little. The focus is on the Conservatives: the past 5 years (or 14 if you believe Labour), so many residual problems in the country, the surge of Reform, a politically inept leader, and the worst election campaign in history.
There are probably many more but it’s a perfect storm. I’m beginning to think my cautious estimates of a c. 160 seat Labour majority are too low.
The straight swing of Tory voters at the last general election to Labour is actually lower than it was in 1997. Opinium for instance has Labour only on 40% in its latest poll ie below the 43% New Labour got in 1997 and no higher than Corbyn got in 2017. The LDs are also polling no higher than the 12% they got in 2019 and also lower than the 16% they got in 1997.
The reason the Tories are polling under 20% in some polls is that Reform are polling at or above UKIP 2015 levels, mainly at Tory expense. Rishi therefore needs to squeeze the ReformUK as well as Labour vote in his final head to head debate with Starmer this week and hope Farage's Putin comments have damaged him
Will the debate really change anything even he does well?
On local travels over the weekend, the following poster counts:
Colne Valley (Lindley and Holme Valley N wards): Lab 9, Con 7, Green 5. On topic, no sign of further active Con posting whilst Lab posters are still going up.
Spen Valley (Mirfield ward): Lab 14, Reform 1. It's like North Korea for Kim! This is a Tory ward in a nominal Tory defence.
Out of interest, there is no single list of councils where election fly posting (on council lamp posts) is permitted. Reading round, it seems rare in England and Wales (only references I can see are locally for Kirklees and Wakefield), but more common in Scotland (around 1/3 of authorities including O&S, but no longer Glasgow) and seems like the norm in NI.
Not sure how it operates somewhere that straddles areas with different rules, but think Normanton & Hemsworth is now fully within E Wakefield.
Could PB crowdsource a definitive list?
I’ve not seen a single Tory poster in Ashford or Canterbury. And it was festooned with them in 2015, 2017 and 2019 (I didn’t live here in 2010).
Good morning
Since the election was called I have seen just two plaid and one conservative one in the whole area
Not one from anyone else which is astonishing
All these "a couple in gardens" confirms my strong in favour of our election fly posting exemption by-law (they are permitted on council lamp posts). There are 100s of posters around Huddersfield. The discussion comes up of whether to abolish, mess etc, but at a time when few bother with garden signs, democracy just feels more vibrant around here.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
Surely a lot of people will never be involved in politics ever again.
What I would be very curious about is that if there was any point where the Tories felt they could still turn it around. I think at Pb we all knew this was impossible but I wonder if Sunak genuinely believed he would still win.
Sunak. I don not think so. He will have his new future beyond the Tory party planned out.
I was pondering this. How much of his preplanned future will still be available to him if (big if) he’s the man who led the Tories to an ELE?
Almost all of it. I believe his wife is quite well connected, for a start.
It's not a great CV point, of course, but he's ultimately a capable bloke. He takes his share of blame for all this, but isn't the sole author of the Conservative Party's position by any means.
The straight swing of Tory voters at the last general election to Labour is actually lower than it was in 1997. Opinium for instance has Labour only on 40% in its latest poll ie below the 43% New Labour got in 1997 and no higher than Corbyn got in 2017. The LDs are also polling no higher than the 12% they got in 2019 and also lower than the 16% they got in 1997.
The reason the Tories are polling under 20% in some polls is that Reform are polling at or above UKIP 2015 levels, mainly at Tory expense. Rishi therefore needs to squeeze the ReformUK as well as Labour vote in his final head to head debate with Starmer this week and hope Farage's Putin comments have damaged him
Will the debate really change anything even he does well?
Surely there's time for Rishi to have a Kevin Keegan meltdown?? 'I'd love it, I would love it, they've got to go to Swindon North and get a result.....'
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
I am keen to hear the reasoning that sent Sunak out to make his election-announcing speech in the pouring rain, without an umbrella, and with Steve Bray making Sunak barely audible
Looking back that was probably the high point of the campaign. All downhill since
I think it was a rapid decision (possibly encouraged by people wanting to make a few quid betting) by people who didn't realise that there were very limited places where a political (none Government) announcement could be made.
Hence no backup venue booked so Rishi ended up standing in the rain ruining a suit...
I'm sorry but I don't buy the excuse that there's limited places available within the whole of London to make a political announcement.
Tony Blair launched the 2001 election in a school.
Its not geography, its that Sunak is so incompetent he couldn't think of a single place in the whole of London he could access to make an announcement other than the pouring rain.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Well we have various areas about to fall apart
Universities - and the stories I've heard tell me that the issues may be irreversible Justice - prisons are full yet there are cases from 2018/9 without court dates Transport - latest story is fares will need to rise to reduce demand as WCML capacity is about to drop 8% due to the HS2 screwups. Government Finances - we know there was no chance of another tax cut... Rwanda - were no flights possible?
but none of those explain why you wake up on Monday and decide to call an election that week...
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
Surely a lot of people will never be involved in politics ever again.
What I would be very curious about is that if there was any point where the Tories felt they could still turn it around. I think at Pb we all knew this was impossible but I wonder if Sunak genuinely believed he would still win.
Sunak. I don not think so. He will have his new future beyond the Tory party planned out.
I was pondering this. How much of his preplanned future will still be available to him if (big if) he’s the man who led the Tories to an ELE?
Almost all of it. I believe his wife is quite well connected, for a start.
It's not a great CV point, of course, but he's ultimately a capable bloke. He takes his share of blame for all this, but isn't the sole author of the Conservative Party's position by any means.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
Surely a lot of people will never be involved in politics ever again.
What I would be very curious about is that if there was any point where the Tories felt they could still turn it around. I think at Pb we all knew this was impossible but I wonder if Sunak genuinely believed he would still win.
Sunak. I don not think so. He will have his new future beyond the Tory party planned out.
I was pondering this. How much of his preplanned future will still be available to him if (big if) he’s the man who led the Tories to an ELE?
He can still give after dinner speeches. Work in Silicon valley or Wall Street. His natural home.
Or lie on a California beach for the rest of his life, he has enough money never to work again
What's astonishing is that William Hill had 100/1 available on no Scottish Tory seats just a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, they only allowed me 79p, but still.
Rural scots will help the Tories.
Yep - anti-SNP tactical voting is going to help the Tories in Scotland.
Hmmm, this is possible, but I can't make the pieces fit. Given that the Scottish Conservative vote is rural, and given that the polling shows the Scottish Conservatives losing about 40% of their vote share, it looks quite dangerous for them. They won 6 seats in 2019. I think they win two or three seats this time.
For me, the election is over. Postal votes winging their way to the Acting Returning Officer following the 9am collection from out local post box. (Which, incidentally, is the only collection of the day.)
After a "lively discussion", I convinced my eco-authoritarian spouse to vote Labour in order to get rid of Sir Philip, rather than spoiling her ballot.
Millions like us can switch off from the campaign and focus on the footy.
A 9am collection means at some point during the day usually when the postman has finished his round and empties the post box as he moves on to the next part of his round / back to the sorting office.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
He's not going to experience a Charles Kennedy moment after losing his seat but I do worry for him.
Obviously, one has to feel some human sympathy for people in these sorts of circumstances - the nature of elections is that some people win and some lose, but it obviously affects people in different ways.
However, I do wonder whether it will all be a bit of a relief for some of those MPs who lose. Westminster isn't necessarily great for people's mental health, and the mood among Tories who remain after 4th July is unlikely to be that great. A bit of time with family, taking a holiday and so on may not be the worst outcome.
Kennedy was a different case, of course. Being an MP was his whole life from a very young age, he'd been having issues over a period of time, his marriage had ended and so on. It remains extremely sad.
IMHO a tragedy for the country. When I joined he Lib Dems they said I could choose which leader to have pictured on my membership card and I asked for him. They sent me Nick Clegg instead. I’m not joking when I say that factored heavily in my decision to resign from the party. Not the main reason clearly - but it didn’t get me off to the greatest start with them.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Well we have various areas about to fall apart
Universities - and the stories I've heard tell me that the issues may be irreversible Justice - prisons are full yet there are cases from 2018/9 without court dates Transport - latest story is fares will need to rise to reduce demand as WCML capacity is about to drop 8% due to the HS2 screwups. Government Finances - we know there was no chance of another tax cut... Rwanda - were no flights possible?
but none of those explain why you wake up on Monday and decide to call an election that week...
The entire university system is about to collapse worldwide. Within the next 5 years
For me, the election is over. Postal votes winging their way to the Acting Returning Officer following the 9am collection from out local post box. (Which, incidentally, is the only collection of the day.)
After a "lively discussion", I convinced my eco-authoritarian spouse to vote Labour in order to get rid of Sir Philip, rather than spoiling her ballot.
Millions like us can switch off from the campaign and focus on the footy.
What's astonishing is that William Hill had 100/1 available on no Scottish Tory seats just a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, they only allowed me 79p, but still.
Rural scots will help the Tories.
Yep - anti-SNP tactical voting is going to help the Tories in Scotland.
Hmmm, this is possible, but I can't make the pieces fit. Given that the Scottish Conservative vote is rural, and given that the polling shows the Scottish Conservatives losing about 40% of their vote share, it looks quite dangerous for them. They won 6 seats in 2019. I think they win two or three seats this time.
Should have been clearer - it's going to help them end up with some seats rather than none...
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
By all accounts on the ground, Steve Baker has given up. He also went on holiday for two weeks…
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
I am keen to hear the reasoning that sent Sunak out to make his election-announcing speech in the pouring rain, without an umbrella, and with Steve Bray making Sunak barely audible
Looking back that was probably the high point of the campaign. All downhill since
I think it was a rapid decision (possibly encouraged by people wanting to make a few quid betting) by people who didn't realise that there were very limited places where a political (none Government) announcement could be made.
Hence no backup venue booked so Rishi ended up standing in the rain ruining a suit...
And no one in Number Ten owns an umbrella???
This was in Downing Street. Surrounded by tacky souvenir shops. It would have taken them 2 minutes to nip out and buy a Union Jack umbrella - providing a patriotic and jaunty image
Instead they sent him out to get drenched and look insane and sad
Perhaps they feared 'wally with the brolly' comments.
Did they even need to make a personal announcement at all ?
Cult of macho bullshit inside No 10 if I were to guess. "Oh he'd look like a wimp if he had an umbrella".
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Well we have various areas about to fall apart
Universities - and the stories I've heard tell me that the issues may be irreversible Justice - prisons are full yet there are cases from 2018/9 without court dates Transport - latest story is fares will need to rise to reduce demand as WCML capacity is about to drop 8% due to the HS2 screwups. Government Finances - we know there was no chance of another tax cut... Rwanda - were no flights possible?
but none of those explain why you wake up on Monday and decide to call an election that week...
Plus the longer it dragged on the greater the 'time foe a change' factor.
No doubt added to by a few more Conservative MPs disgracing themselves.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
Surely a lot of people will never be involved in politics ever again.
What I would be very curious about is that if there was any point where the Tories felt they could still turn it around. I think at Pb we all knew this was impossible but I wonder if Sunak genuinely believed he would still win.
Sunak. I don not think so. He will have his new future beyond the Tory party planned out.
I was pondering this. How much of his preplanned future will still be available to him if (big if) he’s the man who led the Tories to an ELE?
He can still give after dinner speeches. Work in Silicon valley or Wall Street. His natural home.
Or lie on a California beach for the rest of his life, he has enough money never to work again
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
By all accounts on the ground, Steve Baker has given up. He also went on holiday for two weeks…
The straight swing of Tory voters at the last general election to Labour is actually lower than it was in 1997. Opinium for instance has Labour only on 40% in its latest poll ie below the 43% New Labour got in 1997 and no higher than Corbyn got in 2017. The LDs are also polling no higher than the 12% they got in 2019 and also lower than the 16% they got in 1997.
The reason the Tories are polling under 20% in some polls is that Reform are polling at or above UKIP 2015 levels, mainly at Tory expense. Rishi therefore needs to squeeze the ReformUK as well as Labour vote in his final head to head debate with Starmer this week and hope Farage's Putin comments have damaged him
Will the debate really change anything even he does well?
Not fundamentally, but I suppose the point is if he can make the case to RefUK leaning people that Farage is dangerously Putin-adjacent, then he can get away from the "crossover" stuff, win back a few percentage points from them, and make it less bad than it could otherwise be.
Not sure the debates are as important in general as they are painted, though. The very first one in 2010 got enormous attention as an historic new thing and there was a big reaction, partly driven by the fact nobody really knew who Clegg was going into it (& that melted away a bit as the election wore on). But the umpteenth debate in 2024 when most people are watching the football isn't going to move the dial very much even if Starmer has a bad one and Sunak is surprisingly good.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
To put the entire party budget on a hot tip he overheard, probably.
When the dust settles, the Conservative Party is going to have to have a good long think about what it is for. Not just in terms of policy, but also in terms of who is paying who to do what with what end in mind.
This is worth a listen:
The Conservative Party Is FINISHED For Good. Here’s Why. | Aaron meets Peter Oborne
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Also: they knew the terrible migration stats were in the post. They must have seen them beforehand and winced. And still they went for an election???
Why not just hang on until winter when they might have sent some full planes to Rwanda and the boat people take a break anyway
None of it adds up - unless there is some obscured and occulted reason we cannot see
If the campaign has shown anything it is that Sunak and his team are not very good at this. My view is the simplest. May’s inflation figures were not enough for Hunt to pull any tax rabbits out of the hat in the Autumn. That would have led to even more pressure on him (the magical number of letters was close anyway IIUI) so he went early in the hope a longish campaign could turn things round.
Yes, there were a number of flaws we can point out but, again, they’re really bad at this,
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
I think it could be true. I also think the affected candidates should quietly ignore the instruction. What's the point of being a candidate if you're not in it to do the best you can. In any case the Conservatives may want to win the seat the next time.
In the days of canvassing apps, you can't really do that - they know if you're helping the seat you've been ordered to go to or not.
Also, I don't really agree about winning seats "next time". It's much more valuable to cling on in a handful more seats than to lose a doomed seat by 15,347 rather than 15,002. Campaigning to get a marginally better bar chart (particularly for the Tories) is a bit of a waste of time.
I agree with you at the party level but the job of candidates is to do the best they can in the constituencies they're selected for. If it's a waste of time don't select a candidate in the first place.
Once the election is over it won't be held against you that ignored officials now departed following the debacle they presided over, as long you didn't make a fuss about it at the time and got on with what you were supposed to do.
The straight swing of Tory voters at the last general election to Labour is actually lower than it was in 1997. Opinium for instance has Labour only on 40% in its latest poll ie below the 43% New Labour got in 1997 and no higher than Corbyn got in 2017. The LDs are also polling no higher than the 12% they got in 2019 and also lower than the 16% they got in 1997.
The reason the Tories are polling under 20% in some polls is that Reform are polling at or above UKIP 2015 levels, mainly at Tory expense. Rishi therefore needs to squeeze the ReformUK as well as Labour vote in his final head to head debate with Starmer this week and hope Farage's Putin comments have damaged him
Will the debate really change anything even he does well?
Not fundamentally, but I suppose the point is if he can make the case to RefUK leaning people that Farage is dangerously Putin-adjacent, then he can get away from the "crossover" stuff, win back a few percentage points from them, and make it less bad than it could otherwise be.
Not sure the debates are as important in general as they are painted, though. The very first one in 2010 got enormous attention as an historic new thing and there was a big reaction, partly driven by the fact nobody really knew who Clegg was going into it (& that melted away a bit as the election wore on). But the umpteenth debate in 2024 when most people are watching the football isn't going to move the dial very much even if Starmer has a bad one and Sunak is surprisingly good.
Oldies have done well Brought some rigour back to school exam grades Cut NI and increased VAT Stopped ID cards Built some useful roads Increased NHS workforce Full employment
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Also: they knew the terrible migration stats were in the post. They must have seen them beforehand and winced. And still they went for an election???
Why not just hang on until winter when they might have sent some full planes to Rwanda and the boat people take a break anyway
None of it adds up - unless there is some obscured and occulted reason we cannot see
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
Surely a lot of people will never be involved in politics ever again.
What I would be very curious about is that if there was any point where the Tories felt they could still turn it around. I think at Pb we all knew this was impossible but I wonder if Sunak genuinely believed he would still win.
Sunak. I don not think so. He will have his new future beyond the Tory party planned out.
I was pondering this. How much of his preplanned future will still be available to him if (big if) he’s the man who led the Tories to an ELE?
He can still give after dinner speeches. Work in Silicon valley or Wall Street. His natural home.
Or lie on a California beach for the rest of his life, he has enough money never to work again
He's clearly not the sort of person who'd do that, though. He's a driven man, not a lottery winner.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
The closing date for the Californian job application is 5th July.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Well we have various areas about to fall apart
Universities - and the stories I've heard tell me that the issues may be irreversible Justice - prisons are full yet there are cases from 2018/9 without court dates Transport - latest story is fares will need to rise to reduce demand as WCML capacity is about to drop 8% due to the HS2 screwups. Government Finances - we know there was no chance of another tax cut... Rwanda - were no flights possible?
but none of those explain why you wake up on Monday and decide to call an election that week...
The entire university system is about to collapse worldwide. Within the next 5 years
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Of course it's true their internal polling will be similar to the public polling. But it's an empty threat to so you won't be on the candidates list next time, because if you lose your seat anyway, then that won't matter.
It will if you are defending a seat with a 4000 majority that will probably be Labour for a decade or more but next time you want a shot at a seat with a 15,000 or 20,000+ majority that may stay Tory now or would be much easier to win back next time even if lost this time
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
To put the entire party budget on a hot tip he overheard, probably.
When the dust settles, the Conservative Party is going to have to have a good long think about what it is for. Not just in terms of policy, but also in terms of who is paying who to do what with what end in mind.
This sort of thing doesn't help, coming out now as it does.
'A health minister has been accused of cronyism after a close associate became a £1,500-a-day adviser on the “40 new hospitals” programme, despite officials raising a series of detailed objections including perceived conflicts of interest.
Nick Markham helped to ensure that the Department of Health and Social Care handed a £137,460 contract to iDevelop, a management consultancy run by Nigel Crainey. In doing so, he overrode concerns from civil servants who had warned that the contract was not needed and did not represent value for money and also that the two men’s relationship meant that it posed “reputational risk” for the department and the NHS.
Asked by NHS England what the basis was for engaging iDevelop to be an “expert adviser” to Lord Markham, a senior official in the DHSC’s new hospitals team replied: “Because we have been told to.”'
£137,460! A mere bagatelle. I have the task of driving my petit scooter past Baroness Mone's £16,000,000 pad almost daily. Has anyone even thought about asking her for some money back or even the loan of her pool?
Before I disappear back into the garden again I'd just like to draw everyone's attention to tomorrow's big event in the Post Office Inquiry.
Gareth Jenkins begins four days of testimony. The sheer length of the inquisition says everything about his significance. He designed the infamous Horizon system and appeared as an Expert Witness for the Post Office. His failure to mention to the Courts the fallibility of the software contributed to numerous unfair convictions. He was,in short, a tainted witness.
How is he going to play it?
He is one of the few to have been questioned already by the Police in respect of possible charges of perjury and conspiracy to pervert the course of justice. The evidence against him appears overwhelming and it is almost certain he would have been charged by now but for the CPS's policy of waiting for the Inquiry to report.
He is over 70 years old. He faces a long stretch if convicted. Will he turn King's Evidence? You might think that would be his best chance. He is not a PO man, so he owes little to the likes of Vennells and Perkins. On the other hand, he is doubtless being supported by his former employer, Fujitsu, if only through the payment of his legal fees. They presumably pay his pension too, so one expects him to be restrained in any criticism of them. How far that helps the PO is difficult to judge. There has been a bit of a blame game going on between F & the PO, but it hasn't broken out into open warfare - yet.
We'll probably know within the first twenty minutes which way his evidence is going to go. Starts 9.45 am. Should be worth getting the popcorn in.
Shame about the election, the football, and the cricket - this story really should be the top headline news all week.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
The closing date for the Californian job application is 5th July.
The "supermajority" argument is probably the best thing they have left (I do wish our politicians would stop mis-importing and misusing US terms like this, and gerrymandering). I think it will play reasonably well once the gambling stuff leaves the headlines.
I expect to see many many voters doing a BigG in the last days before the election and returning home to the Conservatives. The Farage Russia material gives them the excuse to do so, along with the fear of a giant Labour majority. So when the bongs finish at 10pm on the 4th I expect everyone to be rather surprised by the exit poll.
Am I just paranoid after so many elections when the anti-Tory vote flattered to deceive? I hope so, and I hope not to experience yet again that deflated feeling as the announcer says "and the Liberal Democrats...they'll be disappointed with that I think. They were expecting big things in the blue wall but the Conservatives look to have held on better than expected".
Talking of “gerrymandering” I learnt the other week that it is correctly pronounced with a hard “G” not like Jerry after how Elbridge Gerry’s surname was pronounced (and the surname still pronounced so).
'Correctly' is an odd term for pronunciation almost no one uses.
For me, the election is over. Postal votes winging their way to the Acting Returning Officer following the 9am collection from out local post box. (Which, incidentally, is the only collection of the day.)
After a "lively discussion", I convinced my eco-authoritarian spouse to vote Labour in order to get rid of Sir Philip, rather than spoiling her ballot.
Millions like us can switch off from the campaign and focus on the footy.
A 9am collection means at some point during the day usually when the postman has finished his round and empties the post box as he moves on to the next part of his round / back to the sorting office.
Our postbox states the last collection time as 9am. In practice, it is emptied when our postie does his rounds around 10.30am.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Well we have various areas about to fall apart
Universities - and the stories I've heard tell me that the issues may be irreversible Justice - prisons are full yet there are cases from 2018/9 without court dates Transport - latest story is fares will need to rise to reduce demand as WCML capacity is about to drop 8% due to the HS2 screwups. Government Finances - we know there was no chance of another tax cut... Rwanda - were no flights possible?
but none of those explain why you wake up on Monday and decide to call an election that week...
The entire university system is about to collapse worldwide. Within the next 5 years
Why.
Because of That Thing Leon Can’t Talk About. You can call me Al.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
Surely a lot of people will never be involved in politics ever again.
What I would be very curious about is that if there was any point where the Tories felt they could still turn it around. I think at Pb we all knew this was impossible but I wonder if Sunak genuinely believed he would still win.
Sunak. I don not think so. He will have his new future beyond the Tory party planned out.
I was pondering this. How much of his preplanned future will still be available to him if (big if) he’s the man who led the Tories to an ELE?
I think he'll be ok. Clegg didn't seem to suffer too much from causing the annihilation of the Lid Dems.
I find it hard to imagine Sunak on the after-dinner speaking circuit , but May apparently did well enough, so who knows?
I cannot imagine paying to listen to Theresa May speak, let alone Rishi Sunak. Perhaps they are both gifted raconteurs in the Peter Ustinov/David Niven mode and have hidden it well.
For once am actually sad I have a life and didn't get the chance to see the real time reaction to the previous header - which seems to discuss many of the things I have brought up on this forum before.
It reminds me of Varoufakis speaking about Le Pen and Macron recently - they are symbiotic; without the threat of Le Pen, Macron would almost certainly not be president, and without Macron signing up to the same racist rhetoric whilst continuing neoliberal policies, Le Pen would have no legitimacy and dissatisfaction to use as a foundation for her popularity. This relationship keeps the far right out of power, whilst seeing the so called centrists take many of their worst policies anyway...
There is also Melenchon's party which was second in the last legislative elections and which former Socialist President Hollande has now joined
What's astonishing is that William Hill had 100/1 available on no Scottish Tory seats just a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, they only allowed me 79p, but still.
Rural scots will help the Tories.
Yep - anti-SNP tactical voting is going to help the Tories in Scotland.
Hmmm, this is possible, but I can't make the pieces fit. Given that the Scottish Conservative vote is rural, and given that the polling shows the Scottish Conservatives losing about 40% of their vote share, it looks quite dangerous for them. They won 6 seats in 2019. I think they win two or three seats this time.
Should have been clearer - it's going to help them end up with some seats rather than none...
Yes, agree on the result, but not on the reason. If anything, I think anti-SNP tactical voting will unwind in this election as people realise that there are also compelling reasons not to vote Conservative too. Some of these rural seats have been a bit fucked over by the way Brexit's been done. It's the SNP's similar decline that saves a few Tory seats, not unionist tactical voting.
FWIW I think the decline in the Tory vote in Scotland will be steeper* than the SNP decline. Such facts, if I'm right, will be completely lost in the narrative of the number of seats lost by each party, and the focus has been, will be, and should be on the SNP's seat losses. But if you're looking to make specific prediction it's a pretty good idea to keep the Tory decline at the forefront of your thinking.
*Polling indicates Tory 25 -> 15, SNP 45 -> 33. That's a 40% and a 27% decline respectively. Usual caveats on polling apply.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Also: they knew the terrible migration stats were in the post. They must have seen them beforehand and winced. And still they went for an election???
Why not just hang on until winter when they might have sent some full planes to Rwanda and the boat people take a break anyway
None of it adds up - unless there is some obscured and occulted reason we cannot see
Also, by going now, Rishi ensured that even after the good news that inflation is down, the Bank of England cannot reduce interest rates (and hence mortgage rates) owing to purdah.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
Surely a lot of people will never be involved in politics ever again.
What I would be very curious about is that if there was any point where the Tories felt they could still turn it around. I think at Pb we all knew this was impossible but I wonder if Sunak genuinely believed he would still win.
Sunak. I don not think so. He will have his new future beyond the Tory party planned out.
I was pondering this. How much of his preplanned future will still be available to him if (big if) he’s the man who led the Tories to an ELE?
I think he'll be ok. Clegg didn't seem to suffer too much from causing the annihilation of the Lid Dems.
I find it hard to imagine Sunak on the after-dinner speaking circuit , but May apparently did well enough, so who knows?
I cannot imagine paying to listen to Theresa May speak, let alone Rishi Sunak. Perhaps they are both gifted raconteurs in the Peter Ustinov/David Niven mode and have hidden it well.
Hammer House Horror movies would be good for them!
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
Surely a lot of people will never be involved in politics ever again.
What I would be very curious about is that if there was any point where the Tories felt they could still turn it around. I think at Pb we all knew this was impossible but I wonder if Sunak genuinely believed he would still win.
Mike spent a lot of time reminding us on here of how near-impossible it would be for Labour to win, let along get a landslide. I disagreed with him on here on every occasion but only because I’d like to think I was listening to the Vesuvian public fury.
But that’s not to diss Mike about it. He was right historically. It does require an unprecedented swing. What we are likely to witness has no precedent. And for those of us who bet, you’ve got to have an eye on probabilities.
That we are at this point is an extraordinary sequence of events, some not of the tories making, but many which are.
Sunak has run a truly abysmal campaign but the seeds of this were sown far back. Take your pick when, there are lots of contenders, but the moment which truly turned this into a likely Labour landslide was Liz Truss and her disastrous budget.
For me, the election is over. Postal votes winging their way to the Acting Returning Officer following the 9am collection from out local post box. (Which, incidentally, is the only collection of the day.)
After a "lively discussion", I convinced my eco-authoritarian spouse to vote Labour in order to get rid of Sir Philip, rather than spoiling her ballot.
Millions like us can switch off from the campaign and focus on the footy.
Some of us no longer have the footy to focus on! I wonder whether the abject way in which Scotland eliminated themselves will cause a further slump in SNP support.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Also: they knew the terrible migration stats were in the post. They must have seen them beforehand and winced. And still they went for an election???
Why not just hang on until winter when they might have sent some full planes to Rwanda and the boat people take a break anyway
None of it adds up - unless there is some obscured and occulted reason we cannot see
Also, by going now, Rishi ensured that even after the good news that inflation is down, the Bank of England cannot reduce interest rates (and hence mortgage rates) owing to purdah.
Of course.Either just before the Usa drops their rate or at the same time.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Also: they knew the terrible migration stats were in the post. They must have seen them beforehand and winced. And still they went for an election???
Why not just hang on until winter when they might have sent some full planes to Rwanda and the boat people take a break anyway
None of it adds up - unless there is some obscured and occulted reason we cannot see
Also, by going now, Rishi ensured that even after the good news that inflation is down, the Bank of England cannot reduce interest rates owing to purdah.
That isn't true - interest rates could have been dropped. The reality is that it's not 100% clear they should be dropped as some areas of inflation (services, i.e. labour costs) point to inflation being higher than the headline figure (which currently reflects the massive drop in energy prices increases in July 2023)..
R4 Today is today abandoning daily racing tips. One of those things, like the Shipping Forecast you pay no attention to but is part of life's harmless routine.
Also WRT R4 Today, Heaton-Harris sounded terrible, just as if he had been up all night and wasn't sure where he was.
Why are they abandoning it?
I thought it was a joke. The Today program surely didn't used to have racing tips?
They certainly did, I used to listen to it every day even though I'm not particularly interested in horseracing. It usually only lasted for about 15 seconds, just before 8:30.
And it drives me nuts.
What is the point of giving a tip if you don't give the odds? The most likely winner of each race is normally the favorite, so if you want to tip lots of winners just tip the fav. On the other hand if you want to make money you have to tip at decent odds which means you have to state what those odds are.
Just saying what you think will win is pointless. You may as well say what side a coin will fall if you toss it in the air.
My instant reaction is that for a lot of people horse racing will simply stop existing because the only time they think about it was through Today's racing tips.
The BBC's racing coverage used to be brilliant. It had some outstanding presenters, and not just Sir Peter O'Sullivan. It barely mentions the sport now.
I am told this is largely because the Sport has no supporters at a senior level within the organisation. Cost is undoubtedly a factor too, as is antipathy to a sport in which animals die from time to time.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
He's not going to experience a Charles Kennedy moment after losing his seat but I do worry for him.
Obviously, one has to feel some human sympathy for people in these sorts of circumstances - the nature of elections is that some people win and some lose, but it obviously affects people in different ways.
However, I do wonder whether it will all be a bit of a relief for some of those MPs who lose. Westminster isn't necessarily great for people's mental health, and the mood among Tories who remain after 4th July is unlikely to be that great. A bit of time with family, taking a holiday and so on may not be the worst outcome.
Kennedy was a different case, of course. Being an MP was his whole life from a very young age, he'd been having issues over a period of time, his marriage had ended and so on. It remains extremely sad.
In 2010, I expected to lose, and had ramped up my spare-time involvement in translation in anticipation, as well as putting out feelers for other jobs - I assume many Tory MPs have done something similar. To my astonishment I nearly won, which would have been fun (Broxtowe started as a very safe Tory seat when I won it in 1997), but also would have made it much harder to find another job in 2015 after another 5 years. I think it'd be unusual, though, not to have any job options at all after a stretch in Parliament.
Was thinking about my comment last night re Sade’s ex-boyfriend. In the mid/late 90s I got in with a crowd of Royal College of Art graduates born in the late 50s/early 60s who moved to and bought up most of Hoxton and Shoreditch in the late Thatcher/early Major years. They’d started a deeply ironic post-modern rugby club (it still exists) I joined. One of them was the bloke I mentioned last night who went out with Sade. They are all, without exception, absolutely loaded. Fine Art and Fashion graduates. It was only then I realised I had first hand experience of how lucky that generation got it. For all their anti-establishment credentials I wonder how many of them will vote Tory this time out?
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
Surely a lot of people will never be involved in politics ever again.
What I would be very curious about is that if there was any point where the Tories felt they could still turn it around. I think at Pb we all knew this was impossible but I wonder if Sunak genuinely believed he would still win.
Mike spent a lot of time reminding us on here of how near-impossible it would be for Labour to win, let along get a landslide. I disagreed with him on here on every occasion but only because I’d like to think I was listening to the Vesuvian public fury.
But that’s not to diss Mike about it. He was right historically. It does require an unprecedented swing. What we are likely to witness has no precedent. And for those of us who bet, you’ve got to have an eye on probabilities.
That we are at this point is an extraordinary sequence of events, some not of the tories making, but many which are.
Sunak has run a truly abysmal campaign but the seeds of this were sown far back. Take your pick when, there are lots of contenders, but the moment which truly turned this into a likely Labour landslide was Liz Truss and her disastrous budget.
Hence why I (and Peter Mandelson it appears) think 14:1 for NOM is good value.
Before I disappear back into the garden again I'd just like to draw everyone's attention to tomorrow's big event in the Post Office Inquiry.
Gareth Jenkins begins four days of testimony. The sheer length of the inquisition says everything about his significance. He designed the infamous Horizon system and appeared as an Expert Witness for the Post Office. His failure to mention to the Courts the fallibility of the software contributed to numerous unfair convictions. He was,in short, a tainted witness.
How is he going to play it?
He is one of the few to have been questioned already by the Police in respect of possible charges of perjury and conspiracy to pervert the course of justice. The evidence against him appears overwhelming and it is almost certain he would have been charged by now but for the CPS's policy of waiting for the Inquiry to report.
He is over 70 years old. He faces a long stretch if convicted. Will he turn King's Evidence? You might think that would be his best chance. He is not a PO man, so he owes little to the likes of Vennells and Perkins. On the other hand, he is doubtless being supported by his former employer, Fujitsu, if only through the payment of his legal fees. They presumably pay his pension too, so one expects him to be restrained in any criticism of them. How far that helps the PO is difficult to judge. There has been a bit of a blame game going on between F & the PO, but it hasn't broken out into open warfare - yet.
We'll probably know within the first twenty minutes which way his evidence is going to go. Starts 9.45 am. Should be worth getting the popcorn in.
Shame about the election, the football, and the cricket - this story really should be the top headline news all week.
I suspect that after tomorrow night you will be only too pleased to think about something other than the football.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
He's not going to experience a Charles Kennedy moment after losing his seat but I do worry for him.
Obviously, one has to feel some human sympathy for people in these sorts of circumstances - the nature of elections is that some people win and some lose, but it obviously affects people in different ways.
However, I do wonder whether it will all be a bit of a relief for some of those MPs who lose. Westminster isn't necessarily great for people's mental health, and the mood among Tories who remain after 4th July is unlikely to be that great. A bit of time with family, taking a holiday and so on may not be the worst outcome.
Kennedy was a different case, of course. Being an MP was his whole life from a very young age, he'd been having issues over a period of time, his marriage had ended and so on. It remains extremely sad.
In 2010, I expected to lose, and had ramped up my spare-time involvement in translation in anticipation, as well as putting out feelers for other jobs - I assume many Tory MPs have done something similar. To my astonishment I nearly won, which would have been fun (Broxtowe started as a very safe Tory seat when I won it in 1997), but also would have made it much harder to find another job in 2015 after another 5 years. I think it'd be unusual, though, not to have any job options at all after a stretch in Parliament.
Hope you're feeling better - heard you had some ill health.
Our local tory mp hasn't given up. Still paying to get leaflets delivered but suspect his time is up.
R4 Today is today abandoning daily racing tips. One of those things, like the Shipping Forecast you pay no attention to but is part of life's harmless routine.
Also WRT R4 Today, Heaton-Harris sounded terrible, just as if he had been up all night and wasn't sure where he was.
Why are they abandoning it?
I thought it was a joke. The Today program surely didn't used to have racing tips?
They certainly did, I used to listen to it every day even though I'm not particularly interested in horseracing. It usually only lasted for about 15 seconds, just before 8:30.
And it drives me nuts.
What is the point of giving a tip if you don't give the odds? The most likely winner of each race is normally the favorite, so if you want to tip lots of winners just tip the fav. On the other hand if you want to make money you have to tip at decent odds which means you have to state what those odds are.
Just saying what you think will win is pointless. You may as well say what side a coin will fall if you toss it in the air.
My instant reaction is that for a lot of people horse racing will simply stop existing because the only time they think about it was through Today's racing tips.
The BBC's racing coverage used to be brilliant. It had some outstanding presenters, and not just Sir Peter O'Sullivan. It barely mentions the sport now.
I am told this is largely because the Sport has no supporters at a senior level within the organisation. Cost is undoubtedly a factor too, as is antipathy to a sport in which animals die from time to time.
There is a huge internal debate ongoing within the sport atm (witness the furore over the whip use rule change and the flak that the BHA gets). No one particularly expects it to last 20 years with jump racing going first and then, inevitably, flat racing. Then I suppose we are looking at eventing and show jumping.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
I am keen to hear the reasoning that sent Sunak out to make his election-announcing speech in the pouring rain, without an umbrella, and with Steve Bray making Sunak barely audible
Looking back that was probably the high point of the campaign. All downhill since
I think it was a rapid decision (possibly encouraged by people wanting to make a few quid betting) by people who didn't realise that there were very limited places where a political (none Government) announcement could be made.
Hence no backup venue booked so Rishi ended up standing in the rain ruining a suit...
I'm sorry but I don't buy the excuse that there's limited places available within the whole of London to make a political announcement.
Tony Blair launched the 2001 election in a school.
Its not geography, its that Sunak is so incompetent he couldn't think of a single place in the whole of London he could access to make an announcement other than the pouring rain.
I've said before that the reason that all looked so bad wasn't the fact he failed to get an alternative launch venue (although he should have and it's indicative of the way the campaign has been run) but that he didn't acknowledge or make a dumb joke about the rain. It was the weirdness it conveyed, and that's very dangerous.
What's astonishing is that William Hill had 100/1 available on no Scottish Tory seats just a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, they only allowed me 79p, but still.
Rural scots will help the Tories.
Yep - anti-SNP tactical voting is going to help the Tories in Scotland.
Hmmm, this is possible, but I can't make the pieces fit. Given that the Scottish Conservative vote is rural, and given that the polling shows the Scottish Conservatives losing about 40% of their vote share, it looks quite dangerous for them. They won 6 seats in 2019. I think they win two or three seats this time.
As ever the Tory antipathy north of Gretna is underestimated, Unionist Tories will hold their noses, Unionist SLabbers not so much. The days of the Labour hierarchy sending coded messages about tactical voting are past, it would pretty much crap over their 'vote for us to get rid of the Tories' mantra.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
He's not going to experience a Charles Kennedy moment after losing his seat but I do worry for him.
Obviously, one has to feel some human sympathy for people in these sorts of circumstances - the nature of elections is that some people win and some lose, but it obviously affects people in different ways.
However, I do wonder whether it will all be a bit of a relief for some of those MPs who lose. Westminster isn't necessarily great for people's mental health, and the mood among Tories who remain after 4th July is unlikely to be that great. A bit of time with family, taking a holiday and so on may not be the worst outcome.
Kennedy was a different case, of course. Being an MP was his whole life from a very young age, he'd been having issues over a period of time, his marriage had ended and so on. It remains extremely sad.
In 2010, I expected to lose, and had ramped up my spare-time involvement in translation in anticipation, as well as putting out feelers for other jobs - I assume many Tory MPs have done something similar. To my astonishment I nearly won, which would have been fun (Broxtowe started as a very safe Tory seat when I won it in 1997), but also would have made it much harder to find another job in 2015 after another 5 years. I think it'd be unusual, though, not to have any job options at all after a stretch in Parliament.
I wonder if anyone has compiled a database of what the outgoing cohort of MPs did for a living before Parliament?
I suspect that many were political animals of some sort (SpAd, party worker, Union organiser etc), and that lawyers are over-represented in Parliament compared to the general population, as are public-sector workers. We do all know one who was a bookmaker!
Was thinking about my comment last night re Sade’s ex-boyfriend. In the mid/late 90s I got in with a crowd of Royal College of Art graduates born in the late 50s/early 60s who moved to and bought up most of Hoxton and Shoreditch in the late Thatcher/early Major years. They’d started a deeply ironic post-modern rugby club (it still exists) I joined. One of them was the bloke I mentioned last night who went out with Sade. They are all, without exception, absolutely loaded. Fine Art and Fashion graduates. It was only then I realised I had first hand experience of how lucky that generation got it. For all their anti-establishment credentials I wonder how many of them will vote Tory this time out?
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Well we have various areas about to fall apart
Universities - and the stories I've heard tell me that the issues may be irreversible Justice - prisons are full yet there are cases from 2018/9 without court dates Transport - latest story is fares will need to rise to reduce demand as WCML capacity is about to drop 8% due to the HS2 screwups. Government Finances - we know there was no chance of another tax cut... Rwanda - were no flights possible?
but none of those explain why you wake up on Monday and decide to call an election that week...
The entire university system is about to collapse worldwide. Within the next 5 years
Why.
Given the poster - AI?
Who needs to be educated when AI has all the answers?
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
Surely a lot of people will never be involved in politics ever again.
What I would be very curious about is that if there was any point where the Tories felt they could still turn it around. I think at Pb we all knew this was impossible but I wonder if Sunak genuinely believed he would still win.
Mike spent a lot of time reminding us on here of how near-impossible it would be for Labour to win, let along get a landslide. I disagreed with him on here on every occasion but only because I’d like to think I was listening to the Vesuvian public fury.
But that’s not to diss Mike about it. He was right historically. It does require an unprecedented swing. What we are likely to witness has no precedent. And for those of us who bet, you’ve got to have an eye on probabilities.
That we are at this point is an extraordinary sequence of events, some not of the tories making, but many which are.
Sunak has run a truly abysmal campaign but the seeds of this were sown far back. Take your pick when, there are lots of contenders, but the moment which truly turned this into a likely Labour landslide was Liz Truss and her disastrous budget.
Hence why I (and Peter Mandelson it appears) think 14:1 for NOM is good value.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Also: they knew the terrible migration stats were in the post. They must have seen them beforehand and winced. And still they went for an election???
Why not just hang on until winter when they might have sent some full planes to Rwanda and the boat people take a break anyway
None of it adds up - unless there is some obscured and occulted reason we cannot see
Also, by going now, Rishi ensured that even after the good news that inflation is down, the Bank of England cannot reduce interest rates owing to purdah.
That isn't true - interest rates could have been dropped. The reality is that it's not 100% clear they should be dropped as some areas of inflation (services, i.e. labour costs) point to inflation being higher than the headline figure (which currently reflects the massive drop in energy prices increases in July 2023)..
They should of dropeed interst rates. They did not. Maybye The Tory party asked them to keep them held where they are in order to be the last nail in their coffin.
A lot of pb seems to think it's not likely for the Tories to get less than 100 seats simply because it's never happened before. I think at this point we need to take seriously the fact the polls and MRPs could be right
Possible errors are symmetric. The polls and MRPs could be wrong.
The result might be worse for the Tories than they suggest.
I think I have lots of good reasons for making my best guess be generous to the Tories, but I have low confidence and the uncertainty range is large.
Looking forward to the exit poll! 252 hours and 14 minutes to go!
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
I am keen to hear the reasoning that sent Sunak out to make his election-announcing speech in the pouring rain, without an umbrella, and with Steve Bray making Sunak barely audible
Looking back that was probably the high point of the campaign. All downhill since
I think it was a rapid decision (possibly encouraged by people wanting to make a few quid betting) by people who didn't realise that there were very limited places where a political (none Government) announcement could be made.
Hence no backup venue booked so Rishi ended up standing in the rain ruining a suit...
I'm sorry but I don't buy the excuse that there's limited places available within the whole of London to make a political announcement.
Tony Blair launched the 2001 election in a school.
Its not geography, its that Sunak is so incompetent he couldn't think of a single place in the whole of London he could access to make an announcement other than the pouring rain.
I've said before that the reason that all looked so bad wasn't the fact he failed to get an alternative launch venue (although he should have and it's indicative of the way the campaign has been run) but that he didn't acknowledge or make a dumb joke about the rain. It was the weirdness it conveyed, and that's very dangerous.
Couldn’t CCHQ tie their own shoelaces find a function room in a pub anywhere in Westminster?
Was thinking about my comment last night re Sade’s ex-boyfriend. In the mid/late 90s I got in with a crowd of Royal College of Art graduates born in the late 50s/early 60s who moved to and bought up most of Hoxton and Shoreditch in the late Thatcher/early Major years. They’d started a deeply ironic post-modern rugby club (it still exists) I joined. One of them was the bloke I mentioned last night who went out with Sade. They are all, without exception, absolutely loaded. Fine Art and Fashion graduates. It was only then I realised I had first hand experience of how lucky that generation got it. For all their anti-establishment credentials I wonder how many of them will vote Tory this time out?
I missed that exchange - who is her ex-boyfriend.
A guy I played rugby with in the 90s when I was in my mid 20s and he his late 30s/early 40s. He and Sade were at the Royal College of Art together IIRC.
What's astonishing is that William Hill had 100/1 available on no Scottish Tory seats just a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, they only allowed me 79p, but still.
Rural scots will help the Tories.
Yep - anti-SNP tactical voting is going to help the Tories in Scotland.
Hmmm, this is possible, but I can't make the pieces fit. Given that the Scottish Conservative vote is rural, and given that the polling shows the Scottish Conservatives losing about 40% of their vote share, it looks quite dangerous for them. They won 6 seats in 2019. I think they win two or three seats this time.
As ever the Tory antipathy north of Gretna is underestimated, Unionist Tories will hold their noses, Unionist SLabbers not so much. The days of the Labour hierarchy sending coded messages about tactical voting are past, it would pretty much crap over their 'vote for us to get rid of the Tories' mantra.
Yes. I think there will still be some tactical voting in Scotland, but it'll be in the other direction: Conservatives voting Labour or Lib Dem to keep the SNP out. This is going to have an effect on central belt seats, to be sure. But it won't save rural Tories. SNP: 19 seats, SCon: (I'm going to stick my neck out slightly here) 2
A lot of pb seems to think it's not likely for the Tories to get less than 100 seats simply because it's never happened before. I think at this point we need to take seriously the fact the polls and MRPs could be right
Possible errors are symmetric. The polls and MRPs could be wrong.
The result might be worse for the Tories than they suggest.
I think I have lots of good reasons for making my best guess be generous to the Tories, but I have low confidence and the uncertainty range is large.
Looking forward to the exit poll! 252 hours and 14 minutes to go!
Was thinking about my comment last night re Sade’s ex-boyfriend. In the mid/late 90s I got in with a crowd of Royal College of Art graduates born in the late 50s/early 60s who moved to and bought up most of Hoxton and Shoreditch in the late Thatcher/early Major years. They’d started a deeply ironic post-modern rugby club (it still exists) I joined. One of them was the bloke I mentioned last night who went out with Sade. They are all, without exception, absolutely loaded. Fine Art and Fashion graduates. It was only then I realised I had first hand experience of how lucky that generation got it. For all their anti-establishment credentials I wonder how many of them will vote Tory this time out?
I missed that exchange - who is her ex-boyfriend.
A guy I played rugby with in the 90s when I was in my mid 20s and he his late 30s/early 40s. He and Sade were at the Royal College of Art together IIRC.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
He's not going to experience a Charles Kennedy moment after losing his seat but I do worry for him.
Obviously, one has to feel some human sympathy for people in these sorts of circumstances - the nature of elections is that some people win and some lose, but it obviously affects people in different ways.
However, I do wonder whether it will all be a bit of a relief for some of those MPs who lose. Westminster isn't necessarily great for people's mental health, and the mood among Tories who remain after 4th July is unlikely to be that great. A bit of time with family, taking a holiday and so on may not be the worst outcome.
Kennedy was a different case, of course. Being an MP was his whole life from a very young age, he'd been having issues over a period of time, his marriage had ended and so on. It remains extremely sad.
In 2010, I expected to lose, and had ramped up my spare-time involvement in translation in anticipation, as well as putting out feelers for other jobs - I assume many Tory MPs have done something similar. To my astonishment I nearly won, which would have been fun (Broxtowe started as a very safe Tory seat when I won it in 1997), but also would have made it much harder to find another job in 2015 after another 5 years. I think it'd be unusual, though, not to have any job options at all after a stretch in Parliament.
I suppose people react to these things in different ways. You've always struck me as a man with a hinterland and, as you say, having a marginal seat possibly leads someone to prepare themselves a bit more.
But I guess there are ones for whom it is such a huge part of their life and how they see themselves, that when it's over and they no longer have the "MP" by their name, they don't really know who they are any more. That's very tough psychologically, I suspect.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
By all accounts on the ground, Steve Baker has given up. He also went on holiday for two weeks…
"Given up" sounds rather rude. One could just say he has realistically assessed his prospects.
The thing that has done for the Tories is the complete lack of talent. At all levels. Their social media game is absolutely rotten for example. If you decide to narrow your appeal to a small client voter base, in this specific case one of a generation not perhaps naturally at home with social media, you’re catastrophically narrowing your talent pool. That extends all the way up to Rishi.
They turned themselves into the nasty party then the VERY nasty party when Rishi took over at a moment they could have steadied the ship. Even if their polls told them immigration was a topic that exercised their potential voters Rwanda and Braverman repulsed far more than it attracted. Read Saatchi's essay on why voters main concerns are not necessarily what the the party should be seen to be obsessing about
What's astonishing is that William Hill had 100/1 available on no Scottish Tory seats just a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, they only allowed me 79p, but still.
Rural scots will help the Tories.
Yep - anti-SNP tactical voting is going to help the Tories in Scotland.
Hmmm, this is possible, but I can't make the pieces fit. Given that the Scottish Conservative vote is rural, and given that the polling shows the Scottish Conservatives losing about 40% of their vote share, it looks quite dangerous for them. They won 6 seats in 2019. I think they win two or three seats this time.
As ever the Tory antipathy north of Gretna is underestimated, Unionist Tories will hold their noses, Unionist SLabbers not so much. The days of the Labour hierarchy sending coded messages about tactical voting are past, it would pretty much crap over their 'vote for us to get rid of the Tories' mantra.
Yes. I think there will still be some tactical voting in Scotland, but it'll be in the other direction: Conservatives voting Labour or Lib Dem to keep the SNP out. This is going to have an effect on central belt seats, to be sure. But it won't save rural Tories. SNP: 19 seats, SCon: (I'm going to stick my neck out slightly here) 2
2. Ok. 5 I think. I am only going on gut.Not on in depth facts. I am happy to be corrected.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
By all accounts on the ground, Steve Baker has given up. He also went on holiday for two weeks…
"Given up" sounds rather rude. One could just say he has realistically assessed his prospects.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
Surely a lot of people will never be involved in politics ever again.
What I would be very curious about is that if there was any point where the Tories felt they could still turn it around. I think at Pb we all knew this was impossible but I wonder if Sunak genuinely believed he would still win.
Mike spent a lot of time reminding us on here of how near-impossible it would be for Labour to win, let along get a landslide. I disagreed with him on here on every occasion but only because I’d like to think I was listening to the Vesuvian public fury.
But that’s not to diss Mike about it. He was right historically. It does require an unprecedented swing. What we are likely to witness has no precedent. And for those of us who bet, you’ve got to have an eye on probabilities.
That we are at this point is an extraordinary sequence of events, some not of the tories making, but many which are.
Sunak has run a truly abysmal campaign but the seeds of this were sown far back. Take your pick when, there are lots of contenders, but the moment which truly turned this into a likely Labour landslide was Liz Truss and her disastrous budget.
Hence why I (and Peter Mandelson it appears) think 14:1 for NOM is good value.
we have 10 days left of the campaign and there has been no sign of any swingback to the Tory party from former Tory party voters - if anything the swing has been away from the tories rather than towards them.
I simply cannot see NOM, what I see is Reform picking up more votes than Labours majority in an awful lot (possinly over) 100 seats.
So I expect a massive Labour majority facilitated by Farage / Reform protest votes...
I wonder if anyone has compiled a database of what the outgoing cohort of MPs did for a living before Parliament?
I suspect that many were political animals of some sort (SpAd, party worker, Union organiser etc), and that lawyers are over-represented in Parliament compared to the general population, as are public-sector workers. We do all know one who was a bookmaker!
I was a systems analyst, and wildly out of date after 13 years in Parliament. But I got jobs at at the BUAV and later Cruetly Free Internatinal as a specialist in influencing MPs. It's a niche profession!
Comments
Hence no backup venue booked so Rishi ended up standing in the rain ruining a suit...
Greens still havent bothered, one Reform spotted, LDs and Tories have forgotten where Norwich is and The Party of Women are not yet on display outside my poll card
Speaking of which, I see that the DOJ has finally developed enough of a backbone to criminally charge Boeing.
This was in Downing Street. Surrounded by tacky souvenir shops. It would have taken them 2 minutes to nip out and buy a Union Jack umbrella - providing a patriotic and jaunty image
Instead they sent him out to get drenched and look insane and sad
However, I do wonder whether it will all be a bit of a relief for some of those MPs who lose. Westminster isn't necessarily great for people's mental health, and the mood among Tories who remain after 4th July is unlikely to be that great. A bit of time with family, taking a holiday and so on may not be the worst outcome.
Kennedy was a different case, of course. Being an MP was his whole life from a very young age, he'd been having issues over a period of time, his marriage had ended and so on. It remains extremely sad.
After a "lively discussion", I convinced my eco-authoritarian spouse to vote Labour in order to get rid of Sir Philip, rather than spoiling her ballot.
Millions like us can switch off from the campaign and focus on the footy.
The reason the Tories are polling under 20% in some polls is that Reform are polling at or above UKIP 2015 levels, mainly at Tory expense. Rishi therefore needs to squeeze the ReformUK as well as Labour vote in his final head to head debate with Starmer this week and hope Farage's Putin comments have damaged him
Did they even need to make a personal announcement at all ?
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Also: they knew the terrible migration stats were in the post. They must have seen them beforehand and winced. And still they went for an election???
Why not just hang on until winter when they might have sent some full planes to Rwanda and the boat people take a break anyway
None of it adds up - unless there is some obscured and occulted reason we cannot see
Gareth Jenkins begins four days of testimony. The sheer length of the inquisition says everything about his significance. He designed the infamous Horizon system and appeared as an Expert Witness for the Post Office. His failure to mention to the Courts the fallibility of the software contributed to numerous unfair convictions. He was,in short, a tainted witness.
How is he going to play it?
He is one of the few to have been questioned already by the Police in respect of possible charges of perjury and conspiracy to pervert the course of justice. The evidence against him appears overwhelming and it is almost certain he would have been charged by now but for the CPS's policy of waiting for the Inquiry to report.
He is over 70 years old. He faces a long stretch if convicted. Will he turn King's Evidence? You might think that would be his best chance. He is not a PO man, so he owes little to the likes of Vennells and Perkins. On the other hand, he is doubtless being supported by his former employer, Fujitsu, if only through the payment of his legal fees. They presumably pay his pension too, so one expects him to be restrained in any criticism of them. How far that helps the PO is difficult to judge. There has been a bit of a blame game going on between F & the PO, but it hasn't broken out into open warfare - yet.
We'll probably know within the first twenty minutes which way his evidence is going to go. Starts 9.45 am. Should be worth getting the popcorn in.
Lots of factors I guess. Labour have had to do very little. The focus is on the Conservatives: the past 5 years (or 14 if you believe Labour), so many residual problems in the country, the surge of Reform, a politically inept leader, and the worst election campaign in history.
There are probably many more but it’s a perfect storm. I’m beginning to think my cautious estimates of a c. 160 seat Labour majority are too low.
It's not a great CV point, of course, but he's ultimately a capable bloke. He takes his share of blame for all this, but isn't the sole author of the Conservative Party's position by any means.
'I'd love it, I would love it, they've got to go to Swindon North and get a result.....'
Tony Blair launched the 2001 election in a school.
Its not geography, its that Sunak is so incompetent he couldn't think of a single place in the whole of London he could access to make an announcement other than the pouring rain.
Universities - and the stories I've heard tell me that the issues may be irreversible
Justice - prisons are full yet there are cases from 2018/9 without court dates
Transport - latest story is fares will need to rise to reduce demand as WCML capacity is about to drop 8% due to the HS2 screwups.
Government Finances - we know there was no chance of another tax cut...
Rwanda - were no flights possible?
but none of those explain why you wake up on Monday and decide to call an election that week...
They won 6 seats in 2019. I think they win two or three seats this time.
I just hope sufficient of the nice ones remain.
No doubt added to by a few more Conservative MPs disgracing themselves.
Not sure the debates are as important in general as they are painted, though. The very first one in 2010 got enormous attention as an historic new thing and there was a big reaction, partly driven by the fact nobody really knew who Clegg was going into it (& that melted away a bit as the election wore on). But the umpteenth debate in 2024 when most people are watching the football isn't going to move the dial very much even if Starmer has a bad one and Sunak is surprisingly good.
Yes, there were a number of flaws we can point out but, again, they’re really bad at this,
Once the election is over it won't be held against you that ignored officials now departed following the debacle they presided over, as long you didn't make a fuss about it at the time and got on with what you were supposed to do.
Brought some rigour back to school exam grades
Cut NI and increased VAT
Stopped ID cards
Built some useful roads
Increased NHS workforce
Full employment
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/green-party-leader-admits-she-has-gas-boiler-not-heat-pump/ar-BB1oLtYU?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=9eefcaaeb64e41708ca17a70e6425a6a&ei=18
FWIW I think the decline in the Tory vote in Scotland will be steeper* than the SNP decline. Such facts, if I'm right, will be completely lost in the narrative of the number of seats lost by each party, and the focus has been, will be, and should be on the SNP's seat losses. But if you're looking to make specific prediction it's a pretty good idea to keep the Tory decline at the forefront of your thinking.
*Polling indicates Tory 25 -> 15, SNP 45 -> 33. That's a 40% and a 27% decline respectively. Usual caveats on polling apply.
But that’s not to diss Mike about it. He was right historically. It does require an unprecedented swing. What we are likely to witness has no precedent. And for those of us who bet, you’ve got to have an eye on probabilities.
That we are at this point is an extraordinary sequence of events, some not of the tories making, but many which are.
Sunak has run a truly abysmal campaign but the seeds of this were sown far back. Take your pick when, there are lots of contenders, but the moment which truly turned this into a likely Labour landslide was Liz Truss and her disastrous budget.
I am told this is largely because the Sport has no supporters at a senior level within the organisation. Cost is undoubtedly a factor too, as is antipathy to a sport in which animals die from time to time.
Our local tory mp hasn't given up. Still paying to get leaflets delivered but suspect his time is up.
I suspect that many were political animals of some sort (SpAd, party worker, Union organiser etc), and that lawyers are over-represented in Parliament compared to the general population, as are public-sector workers. We do all know one who was a bookmaker!
Who needs to be educated when AI has all the answers?
The result might be worse for the Tories than they suggest.
I think I have lots of good reasons for making my best guess be generous to the Tories, but I have low confidence and the uncertainty range is large.
Looking forward to the exit poll! 252 hours and 14 minutes to go!
I think there will still be some tactical voting in Scotland, but it'll be in the other direction: Conservatives voting Labour or Lib Dem to keep the SNP out. This is going to have an effect on central belt seats, to be sure. But it won't save rural Tories. SNP: 19 seats, SCon: (I'm going to stick my neck out slightly here) 2
But I guess there are ones for whom it is such a huge part of their life and how they see themselves, that when it's over and they no longer have the "MP" by their name, they don't really know who they are any more. That's very tough psychologically, I suspect.
I simply cannot see NOM, what I see is Reform picking up more votes than Labours majority in an awful lot (possinly over) 100 seats.
So I expect a massive Labour majority facilitated by Farage / Reform protest votes...