Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
What you object to is those who pour cold water on your hope that Labour stays in power for decades, hence the ad hominem.
I'm perfectly aware of how in the toilet the Conservative brand is; if you just scroll up this very same thread, you'll see how I don't hold out much hope for them getting their act together in opposition either.
Nevertheless, I stand by my prediction: I think Labour will have a torrid time in government, they will overplay their hand thinking they have a mandate, whereas in fact they were quite deceitful in keeping shtum to gain office, and suffer fragmentation of their vote in multiple directions.
I think the same thing is coming down the tracks for them as the Conservatives. Just a few years behind.
Couldn’t agree more. The antiestablishment “revolution” that started with Brexit isn’t over. There’s a majority out there that want their views delivered on in government and no mainstream party reflects them.
This quite possibly isn’t the birth of a Labour hegemony, so much as phase two of the birthing pains of something quite different (and for many of us on here - quite terrifying).
I suspect the Tories last throw is going to be saying screw the courts and trying to get a plane load off to Rwanda knowing it will end up getting blocked and try and use that as a recruiting sergeant
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
What you object to is those who pour cold water on your hope that Labour stays in power for decades, hence the ad hominem.
I'm perfectly aware of how in the toilet the Conservative brand is; if you just scroll up this very same thread, you'll see how I don't hold out much hope for them getting their act together in opposition either.
Nevertheless, I stand by my prediction: I think Labour will have a torrid time in government, they will overplay their hand thinking they have a mandate, whereas in fact they were quite deceitful in keeping shtum to gain office, and suffer fragmentation of their vote in multiple directions.
I think the same thing is coming down the tracks for them as the Conservatives. Just a few years behind.
I hope they stay in power only long enough that the opposition, whatever opposition emerges, appears competent to run a bath and seeks to govern for everyone in the country, not just those whose votes it courts. So long as the Conservatives are a grievance factory against teachers, civil servants, junior doctors, universities that run degrees in subjects they don’t see the point in, Europeans, North Londoners, people who eat tofu etc etc etc then they’ll not be elected. When they emerge with a positive vision and, yes, some sense of administrative competence, they will be back. Not before.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Plus the fact Hunt and Sunak have fixed it that Labour have the UKs highest tax take since Second World War to benefit from, and economic growth is going to happen too in next parliament, lots of money coming in, A Labour tax cutting budget on eve of next election shoots all the Tory foxes doesn’t it?
Also Labour can operate with all the Brexit powers, they have more power and opportunity in next 10 years+ of parliamentary dominance free from EU membership than any government in last 65 years, except this current one that lost its opportunity due to covid, war and internal infighting.
Noteworthy Labour has given up on their "Making Brexit work" rhetoric, while the Tories are completely silent on their one supposed achievement: "get Brexit done".
Hardly anyone thinks Brexit does work. Which is a problem. It will need to be addressed at some point.
You are thinking in an “over all” way, overall Brexit is not good. It certainly makes us economically poorer is the argument that seems to be winning.
Yet, imagine if we were still in it. Would that cause more or less issues for Labour in the next ten years?
Its not that sovereignty and control was taken back and given to the British people - only to the extent they elect a government as normal they actually enjoy any of it - an awful lot of power and control came back from EU treaties and courts to the cabinet table at number 10, straight into the hands of the coterie around the British PM. In that narrow way, it’s a clear Brexit dividend for the incoming Labour government. Power and control and freedom former PMs and administrations could only dream about. Tory Brexit has empowered Starmer’s government with this.
There are many interpretations of this sovereignty thing but none of them posit that the British people are sovereign. Sovereignty lies with the Crown in Parliament. Which is why the centralisation you refer to occurs. A large part of my Europhilia comes from the lack of checks and balances in the British constitution. For all the bleating we got on here last week about the SC it has nowhere near the power of similarly named bodies in other countries. It cannot overturn an Act of Parliament.
It’s interesting that this, in reverse is exactly why I voted FOR Brexit (happen with FoM). I explicitly reject the idea of anything being about to overturn an Act of Parliament that isn’t another vote in Parliament. I don’t want the checks and balances because the leveller in me assumes they will be a stitch up.
Our views make for a much more interesting Brexit debate than the usual nonsense, because (hopefully) each can see a logic in the other’s position.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
What you object to is those who pour cold water on your hope that Labour stays in power for decades, hence the ad hominem.
I'm perfectly aware of how in the toilet the Conservative brand is; if you just scroll up this very same thread, you'll see how I don't hold out much hope for them getting their act together in opposition either.
Nevertheless, I stand by my prediction: I think Labour will have a torrid time in government, they will overplay their hand thinking they have a mandate, whereas in fact they were quite deceitful in keeping shtum to gain office, and suffer fragmentation of their vote in multiple directions.
I think the same thing is coming down the tracks for them as the Conservatives. Just a few years behind.
I think there is a bigger threat from the left than the right. They could have a huge mandate and people will get very frustrated that the country isn't immediately covered in cycle lanes and solar panels, all paid for by a Landlord Tax and CGT on primary residence. Even just the two-child limit will provide a huge headache...
Look at what happened in Scotland. The SNP and Greens were highly aligned on social issues but in the end the abandonment of Green targets ended Yousaf's government. You could imagine 100-200 Labour MPs taking a similar stand.
Casino predicts Greens on 24% upthread as a possible future.
A lot depends on how much attention each of the opposition parties can get to make their criticism of the future Labour government. Which makes the precise details of this election so very important, and why there is so much to play for, even though we mostly believe that Labour will surely win by some distance.
Were the Greens to win more seats than Reform, that would make a difference. The attention the Liberal Democrats will get from the BBC will be much greater if they have ~60 seats, than if they have ~30. For the Tories there are critical thresholds of credibility at 100 and 150 seats.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
They really won't...
Watch out for Claire Coutinho.
Badenoch and Braverman - both more likely to survive and either more likely to win the leadership election.
If you are even thinking about punting on this market, wait and see who is left standing on July 5th.
Surely that is the wrong away around? The value is bigger when a lot of punters can't be bothered with the leg work of predicting who is still going to get through.
As we get closer to nominations it becomes more of an insider game, and we know there are more than one or two who like to play that game.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
But if you’re voting for him for those reasons how many others might do so too?
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
What you object to is those who pour cold water on your hope that Labour stays in power for decades, hence the ad hominem.
I'm perfectly aware of how in the toilet the Conservative brand is; if you just scroll up this very same thread, you'll see how I don't hold out much hope for them getting their act together in opposition either.
Nevertheless, I stand by my prediction: I think Labour will have a torrid time in government, they will overplay their hand thinking they have a mandate, whereas in fact they were quite deceitful in keeping shtum to gain office, and suffer fragmentation of their vote in multiple directions.
I think the same thing is coming down the tracks for them as the Conservatives. Just a few years behind.
I think there is a bigger threat from the left than the right. They could have a huge mandate and people will get very frustrated that the country isn't immediately covered in cycle lanes and solar panels, all paid for by a Landlord Tax and CGT on primary residence. Even just the two-child limit will provide a huge headache...
Look at what happened in Scotland. The SNP and Greens were highly aligned on social issues but in the end the abandonment of Green targets ended Yousaf's government. You could imagine 100-200 Labour MPs taking a similar stand.
Casino predicts Greens on 24% upthread as a possible future.
A lot depends on how much attention each of the opposition parties can get to make their criticism of the future Labour government. Which makes the precise details of this election so very important, and why there is so much to play for, even though we mostly believe that Labour will surely win by some distance.
Were the Greens to win more seats than Reform, that would make a difference. The attention the Liberal Democrats will get from the BBC will be much greater if they have ~60 seats, than if they have ~30. For the Tories there are critical thresholds of credibility at 100 and 150 seats.
The Greens have moved on from an environmental based party with a socialist bias to a pretty pure socialist left wing party without anything interesting to say on the environment. On that basis it is not getting anywhere near 20%.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
They really won't...
Watch out for Claire Coutinho.
Badenoch and Braverman - both more likely to survive and either more likely to win the leadership election.
If you are even thinking about punting on this market, wait and see who is left standing on July 5th.
Surely that is the wrong away around? The value is bigger when a lot of punters can't be bothered with the leg work of predicting who is still going to get through.
As we get closer to nominations it becomes more of an insider game, and we know there are more than one or two who like to play that game.
Laying Farage seems risk free to me (make you own joke). No mechanism for it until at least the time after, if at all.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
Collapse is the word. I've never seen anything like it - but you may have done. 1997 for the Tories and 2015 for Labour, yes?
My sense up here is this. There is a Tory and SNP core vote who would vote for them even as the party sacrificed their children's futures. There are a really small number of people who have flit from Con to SNP and SNP to Con - not bothered about independence, but want to have some feel good in their lives.
Then you have the majority of voters. Who as all 3 candidates at the hustings admitted are telling us they are fed up with an economy which makes the cost of living difficult and fed up with crumbling public services. They're also telling me they are fed up with broken promises from the other two.
My instinct is that an awful lot of voters remain undecided, desperately put off by the ScotCon campaign of "Only we can stop the SNP" and the SNP campaign of "only we can stop the Tories". Very different in central belt seats where there is Labour, but not up here.
Can I attract them? Hope so. In enough numbers? Its a challenge. They may all flock back to vote SNConP. But if they do, they won't be happy, especially if the Cons and SNP go back to focusing on infighting and ignoring the voters.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
Given the various reverse ferrets and u turns (anti Brexit, pro Brexit, anti Boris, pro Boris, anti Boris again, pro Truss, Truss, who is she), don’t you think the spineless, principle free diddies deserve a good deal of what’s coming to them?
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
DDayGate followed by BettingGate 10 days later - there's just enough time for another one to pop up.
I like DDayGate but maybe GambleGate has more of a ring?
Aren't we due a Downfall?
We need an MP to get caught sheepshagging, so that we can have a Ramsgate.
Very good PtP!
In retrospect the Expenses scandal should have been called Billingsgate.
Another clerical scandal: Bishopgate Anyone who knows York at all has a wealth of opportunity to really get ahead of this game - assuming everyone else does too.
A sado masochism scandal in York: Whip-ma-Whop-ma-Gate.
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
You mean a real leader that embraces centrist realism to get elected, like, um, the current leader.
The U.S., with its huge oil industry was unlikely to have competed with China in subsidising its solar industry over the last decade. But Europe (which provided a lot of the manufacturing technology for China) really ought to have done so.
Chinese solar generation in is up 45% over the last year, and represented 9.7% of all the country's electricity generation in May
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
But if you’re voting for him for those reasons how many others might do so too?
Not enough.
He is focused on getting what were traditionally Labour voters in our former seat to switch to him as the most likely Unionist in this new seat. For the last few elections the Unionist vote has been increasing in efficiency as people got that the SNP were the enemy but I fear this time will be an exception because very few Labour voters will be able to screw themselves up to vote for this shower, however nice the local candidate is. I am not finding it easy myself.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
The YouGov MRP has Labour winning Wycombe by 44% to 22%, so don't risk too much on Baker!
Good morning again Ian. A gentle comment from me but having made big play of Alex’s warning about NOT using the MRPs to focus on individual constituency results you have been doing exactly that!
I’ve asked you a few times to provide the link to your claim that yesterday’s MRP showed LibDems for Newton Abbot? I was out and the only MRP I saw yesterday was from Savanta which has Labour, not LibDems. This was published in the Telegraph and tallies with New Statesman’s assessment using Best for Britain, with Labour the main contenders. YouGov’s MRP had the Conservatives holding on.
I don’t doubt that you have a link, I’d just like to see it please. Evidence and all that.
It’s certainly a confused picture. The LibDems have pulled resources out of Newton Abbot to focus elsewhere in the South-west, whilst Labour have begun piling in.
We could well have a 3-way split with Anne Morris (Con) coming through again.
I told you in my post that the link was upthread, in the post immediately above yours in the conversation, one click away. You can get the seat data by clicking on the map.
Completely separate, there's the second YouGov MRP, which does have a base of local panellists in the poll, putting the Tories on 29.2% and the LibDems on 24.7% with Labour back on 16.1%
I think this was the very encouraging link to Newton Abbot
Hmmmm. This confirms what I have suspected. You’re not making this assertion with impartiality but with a vested interest (LibDem). There’s nothing wrong with that but on a betting site it needs to be noted.
And that’s the link to Ben Walker’s Britain Predicts ‘model’
I am not suggesting Newton Abbot may not go LibDem. There’s a case for all 3 main contenders, which is why tactical voting sites are not at all clear cut about it. My hunch right now is that it will remain Conservative.
You could be right, Ms Heathener. Especially if too many people go Labour and the Tory retains the seat because of a split vote.
The forecast that I see on that site is Lib Dem 27.8% and Con 26.1%, with the Labour candidate in third place on 17.6%.
Lots of juicy Labour votes for the Lib Dems to squeeze there, if people decide that really do want to get the former Tory MP out.
And it's worth remembering that Labour do no have a single district councillor anywhere in the constituency.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Here is my list of possible Lib Dem seats in decreasing order of probability. The probability weighted total is 52 seats.
Bath 100% Kingston 100% Orkney and Shetland 100% Oxford West and Abingdon 100% Richmond Park 100% St Albans 100% Twickenham 100% St Ives 98% Cheadle 95% Winchester 95% Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross 95% Edinburgh West 95% Fife North East 95% Westmorland and Lonsdale 95% Esher and Walton 93% Cheltenham 93% Carshalton and Wallington 91% Eastbourne 91% Hazel Grove 91% Taunton and Wellington 91% Wimbledon 90% Guildford 89% Shropshire North 89% Lewes 85% Glastonbury and Somerton 83% Woking 83% Wokingham 83% Eastleigh 83% Norfolk North 83% Harrogate and Knaresborough 82% Cambridgeshire South 81% Chesham and Amersham 76% Cotswolds South 76% Godalming and Ash 76% Honiton and Sidmouth 76% Wells and Mendip Hills 75% Devon South 71% Dorking and Horley 71% Dorset West 71% Yeovil 71% Cornwall North 70% Thornbury and Yate 69% Mid Dunbartonshire 69% Bicester and Woodstock 66% Devon North 64% Chelmsford 62% Chippenham 62% Henley and Thame 61% Newbury 60% Tunbridge Wells 60% St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire 58% Surrey Heath 57% Dorset Mid and Poole North 57% Romsey and Southampton North 56% Harpenden and Berkhamsted 56% Didcot and Wantage 56% Sutton and Cheam 56% Frome and East Somerset 53% Chichester 50% Farnham and Bordon 50% Witney 49% Ely and East Cambridgeshire 48% Newton Abbot 47% Torbay 45% Stratford on Avon 43% Mid Sussex 41% Maidenhead 40% Epsom and Ewell 35% Melksham and Devises 34% Horsham 34% Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 31% Tiverton and Minehead 25% Tewksbury 24% West Dorset 10% Hampshire North East 10% Dorset North 5% Cotswolds North 5% Hertfordshire South West 5% Fareham and Waterloo 1%
Just heard on the radio news that a Tory candidate called James Sunderland called the Rwanda policy crap in private and went on to praise it in public.
BTW, in what has been a surprisingly civil campaign so far given the national picture, the only effin' and jeffin' I have had on the doorsteps was from a local LibDem businessman and his wife.
Had a lovely chat with a Labour Party member who was very complimentary about our former MP/now candidate. Not enough to vote for him, but enough to hope he beats the LibDem.
There’s a certain type of Labour voter that always hates the LibDems more than the Tories.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
PB Tories have already transitioned from blaming Starmer for the last half decade of government, to critiquing the blunders he hasn’t yet made.
If he actually succeeds at anything, I fear for their mental composure.
Take it from a serial political loser - no matter how much you think you are prepared for defeat it always hits so much harder when it actually happens.
If Johnny Mercer loses in Plymouth, his concession speech is going to be for the ages.
I really hadn’t realised quite what a narcissist he is until recent events. Agree it may be a good one,
Off all the Torys, that is the one I would like to see defeated most, closely followed by Rees Mogg, there is something about Mercer, smug, cocky, he deserves to go, I hope the good people of Plymouth do their job, whereas I have no real wish to see Sunak lose his seat, I feel he was dealt a poor hand, and the blame lies squarely at the door of Truss and Johnson, if as anticipated they get trounced at the election
Sunak was Chancellor under Johnson as well as PM now, for a total of 4 almost continuous years, and yet you say that none of the blame is his?
Really ironic when he described himself as the `change candidate' only a few months back.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
They really won't...
Watch out for Claire Coutinho.
Badenoch and Braverman - both more likely to survive and either more likely to win the leadership election.
If you are even thinking about punting on this market, wait and see who is left standing on July 5th.
Surely that is the wrong away around? The value is bigger when a lot of punters can't be bothered with the leg work of predicting who is still going to get through.
As we get closer to nominations it becomes more of an insider game, and we know there are more than one or two who like to play that game.
Laying Farage seems risk free to me (make you own joke). No mechanism for it until at least the time after, if at all.
Mechanism is very easy if he is an MP. He is offered and agrees to take Conservative whip.
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 127, Liberal Democrat 48, SNP 19, Plaid Cymru 4, and Reform UK 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current default UK-Elect settings, fairly similar to those used for reasonably accurate forecasts in the past, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of by-elections since 2019, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. As has been the case with other recent forecasts there are a lot of seats that are marginal, and considerable uncertainty which is the best forecasting algorithms to use. This forecast, in fact, combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240623ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
@Heathener This forecast has Newton Abbott Staying blue too.
Yes as I’m predicting.
Although that ukelects site is not very user friendly. They are on here so I don’t want to be critical given all the hard work which has undoubtedly gone into it.
PB Brains Trust: I am trying to calculate, from first principles, a mortgage with a variable interest rate. Using the annuity formula I can get a monthly payment close to what the banks quote, but not exactly. I assume this is because the interest compounds daily, rather than monthly. Does anyone know how I can fix this so it matches the banks calculations?
I recall looking into this before. I think I ended up doing a big spreadsheet in excel to calculate the daily interest.
Several Conservatives will squeeze home thanks to split Lib-Lab and Green votes. Imagine if this election were held under AV. It would be even less proportional this time (whereas 2019 would have been more proportional) and would point to wipeout, with the possible exception of Scotland. None of those tactical vote confusion seats would be available.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
They really won't...
Watch out for Claire Coutinho.
Badenoch and Braverman - both more likely to survive and either more likely to win the leadership election.
If you are even thinking about punting on this market, wait and see who is left standing on July 5th.
Surely that is the wrong away around? The value is bigger when a lot of punters can't be bothered with the leg work of predicting who is still going to get through.
As we get closer to nominations it becomes more of an insider game, and we know there are more than one or two who like to play that game.
Laying Farage seems risk free to me (make you own joke). No mechanism for it until at least the time after, if at all.
Mechanism is very easy if he is an MP. He is offered and agrees to take Conservative whip.
The existing leadership would not do that though, would they? Especially if he’s just helped eviscerate them. And they are in place until they are not.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
Really? I thought farmland was free of inheritance tax provided it is actively used for agriculture?
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
Why does Angela Rayner trigger the right so much? This post is not in any way rational.
Hearing Bridget Phillipson on 'The Rest is Politics' enthusing about the number of working-class people on the Labour front bench, I think there's going to be an awful lot of triggering going on.
People with class do not talk about class.
Because it's too revealing of the current setup?
Nah, peasants don’t understand how welcoming the top classes are as it shatters their preconceptions about their betters.
It’s a wonderful system that allows me, a brown skinned grandchild of immigrants, to join it and be called a toff by those same peasants.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
The YouGov MRP has Labour winning Wycombe by 44% to 22%, so don't risk too much on Baker!
Good morning again Ian. A gentle comment from me but having made big play of Alex’s warning about NOT using the MRPs to focus on individual constituency results you have been doing exactly that!
I’ve asked you a few times to provide the link to your claim that yesterday’s MRP showed LibDems for Newton Abbot? I was out and the only MRP I saw yesterday was from Savanta which has Labour, not LibDems. This was published in the Telegraph and tallies with New Statesman’s assessment using Best for Britain, with Labour the main contenders. YouGov’s MRP had the Conservatives holding on.
I don’t doubt that you have a link, I’d just like to see it please. Evidence and all that.
It’s certainly a confused picture. The LibDems have pulled resources out of Newton Abbot to focus elsewhere in the South-west, whilst Labour have begun piling in.
We could well have a 3-way split with Anne Morris (Con) coming through again.
I told you in my post that the link was upthread, in the post immediately above yours in the conversation, one click away. You can get the seat data by clicking on the map.
Completely separate, there's the second YouGov MRP, which does have a base of local panellists in the poll, putting the Tories on 29.2% and the LibDems on 24.7% with Labour back on 16.1%
I think this was the very encouraging link to Newton Abbot
Hmmmm. This confirms what I have suspected. You’re not making this assertion with impartiality but with a vested interest (LibDem). There’s nothing wrong with that but on a betting site it needs to be noted.
And that’s the link to Ben Walker’s Britain Predicts ‘model’
I am not suggesting Newton Abbot may not go LibDem. There’s a case for all 3 main contenders, which is why tactical voting sites are not at all clear cut about it. My hunch right now is that it will remain Conservative.
You could be right, Ms Heathener. Especially if too many people go Labour and the Tory retains the seat because of a split vote.
The forecast that I see on that site is Lib Dem 27.8% and Con 26.1%, with the Labour candidate in third place on 17.6%.
Lots of juicy Labour votes for the Lib Dems to squeeze there, if people decide that really do want to get the former Tory MP out.
And it's worth remembering that Labour do no have a single district councillor anywhere in the constituency.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Plus the fact Hunt and Sunak have fixed it that Labour have the UKs highest tax take since Second World War to benefit from, and economic growth is going to happen too in next parliament, lots of money coming in, A Labour tax cutting budget on eve of next election shoots all the Tory foxes doesn’t it?
Also Labour can operate with all the Brexit powers, they have more power and opportunity in next 10 years+ of parliamentary dominance free from EU membership than any government in last 65 years, except this current one that lost its opportunity due to covid, war and internal infighting.
Noteworthy Labour has given up on their "Making Brexit work" rhetoric, while the Tories are completely silent on their one supposed achievement: "get Brexit done".
Hardly anyone thinks Brexit does work. Which is a problem. It will need to be addressed at some point.
You are thinking in an “over all” way, overall Brexit is not good. It certainly makes us economically poorer is the argument that seems to be winning.
Yet, imagine if we were still in it. Would that cause more or less issues for Labour in the next ten years?
Its not that sovereignty and control was taken back and given to the British people - only to the extent they elect a government as normal they actually enjoy any of it - an awful lot of power and control came back from EU treaties and courts to the cabinet table at number 10, straight into the hands of the coterie around the British PM. In that narrow way, it’s a clear Brexit dividend for the incoming Labour government. Power and control and freedom former PMs and administrations could only dream about. Tory Brexit has empowered Starmer’s government with this.
There are many interpretations of this sovereignty thing but none of them posit that the British people are sovereign. Sovereignty lies with the Crown in Parliament. Which is why the centralisation you refer to occurs. A large part of my Europhilia comes from the lack of checks and balances in the British constitution. For all the bleating we got on here last week about the SC it has nowhere near the power of similarly named bodies in other countries. It cannot overturn an Act of Parliament.
It’s interesting that this, in reverse is exactly why I voted FOR Brexit (happen with FoM). I explicitly reject the idea of anything being about to overturn an Act of Parliament that isn’t another vote in Parliament. I don’t want the checks and balances because the leveller in me assumes they will be a stitch up.
Our views make for a much more interesting Brexit debate than the usual nonsense, because (hopefully) each can see a logic in the other’s position.
Yes. My argument has always been wasn’t the referendum that took us out of the EU but Parliamentary repeal of the European Communities Act 1972. Thus you were voting to give back to Parliament something it never lost but chose not to exercise for 48 years.
Anyway, this is one of those foundational arguments that repeat ad nauseam on here and get nowhere! I have to go and be a car park attendant at an Early Music festival. Later!
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
Why does Angela Rayner trigger the right so much? This post is not in any way rational.
Hearing Bridget Phillipson on 'The Rest is Politics' enthusing about the number of working-class people on the Labour front bench, I think there's going to be an awful lot of triggering going on.
People with class do not talk about class.
Because it's too revealing of the current setup?
Nah, peasants don’t understand how welcoming the top classes are as it shatters their preconceptions about their betters.
It’s a wonderful system that allows me, a brown skinned grandchild of immigrants, to join it and be called a toff by those same peasants.
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 127, Liberal Democrat 48, SNP 19, Plaid Cymru 4, and Reform UK 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current default UK-Elect settings, fairly similar to those used for reasonably accurate forecasts in the past, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of by-elections since 2019, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. As has been the case with other recent forecasts there are a lot of seats that are marginal, and considerable uncertainty which is the best forecasting algorithms to use. This forecast, in fact, combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240623ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
@Heathener This forecast has Newton Abbott Staying blue too.
Yes as I’m predicting.
Although that ukelects site is not very user friendly. They are on here so I don’t want to be critical given all the hard work which has undoubtedly gone into it.
On a different subject @Heathener - ISTR you vaguely hinted that you were at Taylor Swift yesterday - is that true? My wife and daughters were there too. I expect you were sat next to them. Apologies if I'm getting wires crossed!
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Here is my list of possible Lib Dem seats in decreasing order of probability. The probability weighted total is 52 seats.
Bath 100% Kingston 100% Orkney and Shetland 100% Oxford West and Abingdon 100% Richmond Park 100% St Albans 100% Twickenham 100% St Ives 98% Cheadle 95% Winchester 95% Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross 95% Edinburgh West 95% Fife North East 95% Westmorland and Lonsdale 95% Esher and Walton 93% Cheltenham 93% Carshalton and Wallington 91% Eastbourne 91% Hazel Grove 91% Taunton and Wellington 91% Wimbledon 90% Guildford 89% Shropshire North 89% Lewes 85% Glastonbury and Somerton 83% Woking 83% Wokingham 83% Eastleigh 83% Norfolk North 83% Harrogate and Knaresborough 82% Cambridgeshire South 81% Chesham and Amersham 76% Cotswolds South 76% Godalming and Ash 76% Honiton and Sidmouth 76% Wells and Mendip Hills 75% Devon South 71% Dorking and Horley 71% Dorset West 71% Yeovil 71% Cornwall North 70% Thornbury and Yate 69% Mid Dunbartonshire 69% Bicester and Woodstock 66% Devon North 64% Chelmsford 62% Chippenham 62% Henley and Thame 61% Newbury 60% Tunbridge Wells 60% St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire 58% Surrey Heath 57% Dorset Mid and Poole North 57% Romsey and Southampton North 56% Harpenden and Berkhamsted 56% Didcot and Wantage 56% Sutton and Cheam 56% Frome and East Somerset 53% Chichester 50% Farnham and Bordon 50% Witney 49% Ely and East Cambridgeshire 48% Newton Abbot 47% Torbay 45% Stratford on Avon 43% Mid Sussex 41% Maidenhead 40% Epsom and Ewell 35% Melksham and Devises 34% Horsham 34% Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 31% Tiverton and Minehead 25% Tewksbury 24% West Dorset 10% Hampshire North East 10% Dorset North 5% Cotswolds North 5% Hertfordshire South West 5% Fareham and Waterloo 1%
Total possible gains 52
I agree almost 100% with this list. Maybe Brecon and West Dorset ought to have higher LD percentages.
Wifey has just come back from the village hall bring and buy sale. People coming up to her to talk about the election. They don't want to be seen talking to me and talking down the SNP. But in private? They're absolutely sick of both the party and the fear of being seen to be anti-independence.
This absolutely ties in with what I am hearing and feeling on the doors. The desire for change is huge. They just may not be happy talking about it.
BETTING POST - how many voters across the country have similar views? How many shy Cons are hiding? Or, flipping over, how many people are planning to vote against them in true blue areas but like people here are reluctant to say so?
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
They really won't...
Watch out for Claire Coutinho.
Badenoch and Braverman - both more likely to survive and either more likely to win the leadership election.
If you are even thinking about punting on this market, wait and see who is left standing on July 5th.
Surely that is the wrong away around? The value is bigger when a lot of punters can't be bothered with the leg work of predicting who is still going to get through.
As we get closer to nominations it becomes more of an insider game, and we know there are more than one or two who like to play that game.
Laying Farage seems risk free to me (make you own joke). No mechanism for it until at least the time after, if at all.
Mechanism is very easy if he is an MP. He is offered and agrees to take Conservative whip.
The existing leadership would not do that though, would they? Especially if he’s just helped eviscerate them. And they are in place until they are not.
They won't want to. How much power they actually have if Tories end up on 60 seats and Patel, Braverman and the Tory media push for a merger, who knows?
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Here is my list of possible Lib Dem seats in decreasing order of probability. The probability weighted total is 52 seats.
Bath 100% Kingston 100% Orkney and Shetland 100% Oxford West and Abingdon 100% Richmond Park 100% St Albans 100% Twickenham 100% St Ives 98% Cheadle 95% Winchester 95% Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross 95% Edinburgh West 95% Fife North East 95% Westmorland and Lonsdale 95% Esher and Walton 93% Cheltenham 93% Carshalton and Wallington 91% Eastbourne 91% Hazel Grove 91% Taunton and Wellington 91% Wimbledon 90% Guildford 89% Shropshire North 89% Lewes 85% Glastonbury and Somerton 83% Woking 83% Wokingham 83% Eastleigh 83% Norfolk North 83% Harrogate and Knaresborough 82% Cambridgeshire South 81% Chesham and Amersham 76% Cotswolds South 76% Godalming and Ash 76% Honiton and Sidmouth 76% Wells and Mendip Hills 75% Devon South 71% Dorking and Horley 71% Dorset West 71% Yeovil 71% Cornwall North 70% Thornbury and Yate 69% Mid Dunbartonshire 69% Bicester and Woodstock 66% Devon North 64% Chelmsford 62% Chippenham 62% Henley and Thame 61% Newbury 60% Tunbridge Wells 60% St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire 58% Surrey Heath 57% Dorset Mid and Poole North 57% Romsey and Southampton North 56% Harpenden and Berkhamsted 56% Didcot and Wantage 56% Sutton and Cheam 56% Frome and East Somerset 53% Chichester 50% Farnham and Bordon 50% Witney 49% Ely and East Cambridgeshire 48% Newton Abbot 47% Torbay 45% Stratford on Avon 43% Mid Sussex 41% Maidenhead 40% Epsom and Ewell 35% Melksham and Devises 34% Horsham 34% Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 31% Tiverton and Minehead 25% Tewksbury 24% West Dorset 10% Hampshire North East 10% Dorset North 5% Cotswolds North 5% Hertfordshire South West 5% Fareham and Waterloo 1%
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Here is my list of possible Lib Dem seats in decreasing order of probability. The probability weighted total is 52 seats.
Bath 100% Kingston 100% Orkney and Shetland 100% Oxford West and Abingdon 100% Richmond Park 100% St Albans 100% Twickenham 100% St Ives 98% Cheadle 95% Winchester 95% Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross 95% Edinburgh West 95% Fife North East 95% Westmorland and Lonsdale 95% Esher and Walton 93% Cheltenham 93% Carshalton and Wallington 91% Eastbourne 91% Hazel Grove 91% Taunton and Wellington 91% Wimbledon 90% Guildford 89% Shropshire North 89% Lewes 85% Glastonbury and Somerton 83% Woking 83% Wokingham 83% Eastleigh 83% Norfolk North 83% Harrogate and Knaresborough 82% Cambridgeshire South 81% Chesham and Amersham 76% Cotswolds South 76% Godalming and Ash 76% Honiton and Sidmouth 76% Wells and Mendip Hills 75% Devon South 71% Dorking and Horley 71% Dorset West 71% Yeovil 71% Cornwall North 70% Thornbury and Yate 69% Mid Dunbartonshire 69% Bicester and Woodstock 66% Devon North 64% Chelmsford 62% Chippenham 62% Henley and Thame 61% Newbury 60% Tunbridge Wells 60% St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire 58% Surrey Heath 57% Dorset Mid and Poole North 57% Romsey and Southampton North 56% Harpenden and Berkhamsted 56% Didcot and Wantage 56% Sutton and Cheam 56% Frome and East Somerset 53% Chichester 50% Farnham and Bordon 50% Witney 49% Ely and East Cambridgeshire 48% Newton Abbot 47% Torbay 45% Stratford on Avon 43% Mid Sussex 41% Maidenhead 40% Epsom and Ewell 35% Melksham and Devises 34% Horsham 34% Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 31% Tiverton and Minehead 25% Tewksbury 24% West Dorset 10% Hampshire North East 10% Dorset North 5% Cotswolds North 5% Hertfordshire South West 5% Fareham and Waterloo 1%
Several Conservatives will squeeze home thanks to split Lib-Lab and Green votes. Imagine if this election were held under AV. It would be even less proportional this time (whereas 2019 would have been more proportional) and would point to wipeout, with the possible exception of Scotland. None of those tactical vote confusion seats would be available.
In 1997 only 13 Tories won more than 50% of the vote, which means 152 were elected with less and may have been defeated with AV.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Here is my list of possible Lib Dem seats in decreasing order of probability. The probability weighted total is 52 seats.
Bath 100% Kingston 100% Orkney and Shetland 100% Oxford West and Abingdon 100% Richmond Park 100% St Albans 100% Twickenham 100% St Ives 98% Cheadle 95% Winchester 95% Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross 95% Edinburgh West 95% Fife North East 95% Westmorland and Lonsdale 95% Esher and Walton 93% Cheltenham 93% Carshalton and Wallington 91% Eastbourne 91% Hazel Grove 91% Taunton and Wellington 91% Wimbledon 90% Guildford 89% Shropshire North 89% Lewes 85% Glastonbury and Somerton 83% Woking 83% Wokingham 83% Eastleigh 83% Norfolk North 83% Harrogate and Knaresborough 82% Cambridgeshire South 81% Chesham and Amersham 76% Cotswolds South 76% Godalming and Ash 76% Honiton and Sidmouth 76% Wells and Mendip Hills 75% Devon South 71% Dorking and Horley 71% Dorset West 71% Yeovil 71% Cornwall North 70% Thornbury and Yate 69% Mid Dunbartonshire 69% Bicester and Woodstock 66% Devon North 64% Chelmsford 62% Chippenham 62% Henley and Thame 61% Newbury 60% Tunbridge Wells 60% St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire 58% Surrey Heath 57% Dorset Mid and Poole North 57% Romsey and Southampton North 56% Harpenden and Berkhamsted 56% Didcot and Wantage 56% Sutton and Cheam 56% Frome and East Somerset 53% Chichester 50% Farnham and Bordon 50% Witney 49% Ely and East Cambridgeshire 48% Newton Abbot 47% Torbay 45% Stratford on Avon 43% Mid Sussex 41% Maidenhead 40% Epsom and Ewell 35% Melksham and Devises 34% Horsham 34% Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 31% Tiverton and Minehead 25% Tewksbury 24% West Dorset 10% Hampshire North East 10% Dorset North 5% Cotswolds North 5% Hertfordshire South West 5% Fareham and Waterloo 1%
Total possible gains 52
Its basically naice places to live.
Well, they will be once there aren't a billion orange diamonds cluttering up the streets.
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
You mean a real leader that embraces centrist realism to get elected, like, um, the current leader.
Go ahead and put Truss or Braverman or JRM in as LOTO. Be my guest. I suspect you will eventually have an Erich Honecker "moment" and demand that we need a more right wing electorate...
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
If PB Tories are anything to go by, the Conservatives will win a majority on the 4th July. Everyone is finding an excuse.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
If PB Tories are anything to go by, the Conservatives will win a majority on the 4th July. Everyone is finding an excuse.
If replicated more widely.... hmmmm.
My estimate has gone down from 200 to about 120 seats. Yes, I am a natural optimist. This is going to be the worst defeat in Conservative party history.
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
You mean a real leader that embraces centrist realism to get elected, like, um, the current leader.
Go ahead and put Truss or Braverman or JRM in as LOTO. Be my guest. I suspect you will eventually have an Erich Honecker "moment" and demand that we need a more right wing electorate...
We've had a few Tory leaders on the right. Some of them have failed to win elections. None of them has ever subjected the party to the nuclear annihilation we're currently witnessing. 'The grown ups' own this.
I suspect the Tories last throw is going to be saying screw the courts and trying to get a plane load off to Rwanda knowing it will end up getting blocked and try and use that as a recruiting sergeant
Someone in the Govt risks being held in contempt if that happens because a member of it told a High Court judge that the first flight would not be until the 24th. It’s all very well saying screw the courts until you end up in Pentonville for a short stretch.
I suspect the Tories last throw is going to be saying screw the courts and trying to get a plane load off to Rwanda knowing it will end up getting blocked and try and use that as a recruiting sergeant
Only someone completed disconnected from reality could imagine that would do them any good.
Of course that's not to say they won't think it's a brilliant idea.
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 127, Liberal Democrat 48, SNP 19, Plaid Cymru 4, and Reform UK 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current default UK-Elect settings, fairly similar to those used for reasonably accurate forecasts in the past, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of by-elections since 2019, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. As has been the case with other recent forecasts there are a lot of seats that are marginal, and considerable uncertainty which is the best forecasting algorithms to use. This forecast, in fact, combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240623ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
@Heathener This forecast has Newton Abbott Staying blue too.
Yes as I’m predicting.
Although that ukelects site is not very user friendly. They are on here so I don’t want to be critical given all the hard work which has undoubtedly gone into it.
It took me a while to parse “ukelects”. I wondered whether it referred to different styles (or dialects) of ukulele playing, or just elect ukulele players.
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
You mean a real leader that embraces centrist realism to get elected, like, um, the current leader.
Go ahead and put Truss or Braverman or JRM in as LOTO. Be my guest. I suspect you will eventually have an Erich Honecker "moment" and demand that we need a more right wing electorate...
We've had a few Tory leaders on the right. Some of them have failed to win elections. None of them has ever subjected the party to the nuclear annihilation we're currently witnessing. 'The grown ups' own this.
If you fail to see the hand of Truss in the current difficulty the Conservative Party is in we can’t help you. If that failure is replicated within the party then it’s beyond salvation.
I suspect the Tories last throw is going to be saying screw the courts and trying to get a plane load off to Rwanda knowing it will end up getting blocked and try and use that as a recruiting sergeant
Only someone completed disconnected from reality could imagine that would do them any good.
Of course that's not to say they won't think it's a brilliant idea.
How would they do it? We're in an election time - afaik civil servants aren't taking orders from Ministers. Certainly not for major policy initiatives. They'd just say no.
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
Agreed about your second point, but in fact I think that with maybe 120 MPs, many on very thin majorities, the Tory Party will be a very delicate flower. The kind of rough handling at anyone close to Farage, like PP, is likely give to the party may end up killing it outright. I could see many MPs joining Rory Stewart et al in a long march to the Liberal Democrats if Patel gets the leadership.
This time the Tories need an actually Conservative leader, and Patel ain´t it.
Excellent points. After the election if it works out as expected, the Tories will be utterly irrelevant. It will be an unaccustomed, and uncomfortable, place to be. Will they move quickly to change that situation or will they lose all remaining discipline?
We just have to look back to the past, either Labour or Tory. Post defeat the loudest voices are the nutters and the swing to the extremes until the next election is even worse (that might not be possible in this case) and the crazies get told to shut up and let the grown-ups take charge.
The danger this time is that the defeat is so bad that even a swivel-eyed loon party does better in the next election thus "justifying" that the loons' platform is the way to go and thus prolonging the wilderness years for another parliament or two.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
If PB Tories are anything to go by, the Conservatives will win a majority on the 4th July. Everyone is finding an excuse.
If replicated more widely.... hmmmm.
My estimate has gone down from 200 to about 120 seats. Yes, I am a natural optimist. This is going to be the worst defeat in Conservative party history.
And so it should be, because I need an awful lot of persuading that 2019-24 hasn't been the worst Conservative government in history.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
If PB Tories are anything to go by, the Conservatives will win a majority on the 4th July. Everyone is finding an excuse.
If replicated more widely.... hmmmm.
My estimate has gone down from 200 to about 120 seats. Yes, I am a natural optimist. This is going to be the worst defeat in Conservative party history.
To be fair, I'd expect the SCon vote to hold up much better than elsewhere. There is a certain disconnect with Westminster, and people who would normally vote Labour as a tactical Unionist might return.
OTOH, you have the Duguid fiasco and general vibe. If you're picking up serious discontent even in Scotland...
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
Agreed about your second point, but in fact I think that with maybe 120 MPs, many on very thin majorities, the Tory Party will be a very delicate flower. The kind of rough handling at anyone close to Farage, like PP, is likely give to the party may end up killing it outright. I could see many MPs joining Rory Stewart et al in a long march to the Liberal Democrats if Patel gets the leadership.
This time the Tories need an actually Conservative leader, and Patel ain´t it.
Of Patel is not it, but based on past outcomes, she, Braverman and Badenoch have got to be front runners (if they survive the cull)
My big hope is that the cull clears out the crazies to an extent that grown-ups can step in.
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
You mean a real leader that embraces centrist realism to get elected, like, um, the current leader.
Go ahead and put Truss or Braverman or JRM in as LOTO. Be my guest. I suspect you will eventually have an Erich Honecker "moment" and demand that we need a more right wing electorate...
We've had a few Tory leaders on the right. Some of them have failed to win elections. None of them has ever subjected the party to the nuclear annihilation we're currently witnessing. 'The grown ups' own this.
If you fail to see the hand of Truss in the current difficulty the Conservative Party is in we can’t help you. If that failure is replicated within the party then it’s beyond salvation.
I don't fail to see it. Of course the crashing and burning of Truss was awful for the Tories. But nobody (except the electors of South West Norfolk) is voting for another 5 years of Truss - they're deciding if they want 5 more years of Sunak as PM, and Sunak's policy programme being implemented.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
PB Tories have already transitioned from blaming Starmer for the last half decade of government, to critiquing the blunders he hasn’t yet made.
If he actually succeeds at anything, I fear for their mental composure.
Take it from a serial political loser - no matter how much you think you are prepared for defeat it always hits so much harder when it actually happens.
If Johnny Mercer loses in Plymouth, his concession speech is going to be for the ages.
I really hadn’t realised quite what a narcissist he is until recent events. Agree it may be a good one,
Off all the Torys, that is the one I would like to see defeated most, closely followed by Rees Mogg, there is something about Mercer, smug, cocky, he deserves to go, I hope the good people of Plymouth do their job, whereas I have no real wish to see Sunak lose his seat, I feel he was dealt a poor hand, and the blame lies squarely at the door of Truss and Johnson, if as anticipated they get trounced at the election
Sunak was Chancellor under Johnson as well as PM now, for a total of 4 almost continuous years, and yet you say that none of the blame is his?
Of course he made mistakes, and he is still making them, I was talking more of Johnson complete lack of Morals, and Truss's complete lack of a Brain, I want the Torys beaten as much as the next man, but I think whoever took over from them two, had a difficult job
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
If PB Tories are anything to go by, the Conservatives will win a majority on the 4th July. Everyone is finding an excuse.
If replicated more widely.... hmmmm.
My estimate has gone down from 200 to about 120 seats. Yes, I am a natural optimist. This is going to be the worst defeat in Conservative party history.
To be fair, I'd expect the SCon vote to hold up much better than elsewhere. There is a certain disconnect with Westminster, and people who would normally vote Labour as a tactical Unionist might return.
OTOH, you have the Duguid fiasco and general vibe. If you're picking up serious discontent even in Scotland...
Who knows?!
I would agree with this. Scottish politics is dominated by the Union and independence, all the trivia like Brexit, public services, taxation etc are in the shade by comparison and often complicated by who is actually responsible. OTOH the Douglas Ross fiasco didn't exactly help. Not quite a D Day or Bettingate fiasco but really not clever.
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
Agreed about your second point, but in fact I think that with maybe 120 MPs, many on very thin majorities, the Tory Party will be a very delicate flower. The kind of rough handling at anyone close to Farage, like PP, is likely give to the party may end up killing it outright. I could see many MPs joining Rory Stewart et al in a long march to the Liberal Democrats if Patel gets the leadership.
This time the Tories need an actually Conservative leader, and Patel ain´t it.
Of Patel is not it, but based on past outcomes, she, Braverman and Badenoch have got to be front runners (if they survive the cull)
My big hope is that the cull clears out the crazies to an extent that grown-ups can step in.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
Anyone know the cut off to vote for Tory leader? I’ve never joined a political party before but just have to write a cheque to the Tories in order to try to keep them in the centre.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Plus the fact Hunt and Sunak have fixed it that Labour have the UKs highest tax take since Second World War to benefit from, and economic growth is going to happen too in next parliament, lots of money coming in, A Labour tax cutting budget on eve of next election shoots all the Tory foxes doesn’t it?
Also Labour can operate with all the Brexit powers, they have more power and opportunity in next 10 years+ of parliamentary dominance free from EU membership than any government in last 65 years, except this current one that lost its opportunity due to covid, war and internal infighting.
Noteworthy Labour has given up on their "Making Brexit work" rhetoric, while the Tories are completely silent on their one supposed achievement: "get Brexit done".
Hardly anyone thinks Brexit does work. Which is a problem. It will need to be addressed at some point.
You are thinking in an “over all” way, overall Brexit is not good. It certainly makes us economically poorer is the argument that seems to be winning.
Yet, imagine if we were still in it. Would that cause more or less issues for Labour in the next ten years?
Its not that sovereignty and control was taken back and given to the British people - only to the extent they elect a government as normal they actually enjoy any of it - an awful lot of power and control came back from EU treaties and courts to the cabinet table at number 10, straight into the hands of the coterie around the British PM. In that narrow way, it’s a clear Brexit dividend for the incoming Labour government. Power and control and freedom former PMs and administrations could only dream about. Tory Brexit has empowered Starmer’s government with this.
There are many interpretations of this sovereignty thing but none of them posit that the British people are sovereign. Sovereignty lies with the Crown in Parliament. Which is why the centralisation you refer to occurs. A large part of my Europhilia comes from the lack of checks and balances in the British constitution. For all the bleating we got on here last week about the SC it has nowhere near the power of similarly named bodies in other countries. It cannot overturn an Act of Parliament.
Some do however posit that the Scottish people is sovereign. Buchanan and so on.
Yes - forgive me for not opining on that specific issue but the limited time and scope afforded by this medium means that an in depth analysis of the various differing interpretations of a nebulous legal concept, particularly one in a political and legal tradition to which I am an outsider, within an overall mess of a constitutional settlement would be a tad over ambitious.
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 127, Liberal Democrat 48, SNP 19, Plaid Cymru 4, and Reform UK 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current default UK-Elect settings, fairly similar to those used for reasonably accurate forecasts in the past, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of by-elections since 2019, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. As has been the case with other recent forecasts there are a lot of seats that are marginal, and considerable uncertainty which is the best forecasting algorithms to use. This forecast, in fact, combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240623ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
@Heathener This forecast has Newton Abbott Staying blue too.
Yes as I’m predicting.
Although that ukelects site is not very user friendly. They are on here so I don’t want to be critical given all the hard work which has undoubtedly gone into it.
Thanks. I'd agree - the problem is that 95% of the work has gone into the ukelect software not the ukelect.co.uk website (which was going to be improved before September, in time for the election. That worked out well! )
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
If PB Tories are anything to go by, the Conservatives will win a majority on the 4th July. Everyone is finding an excuse.
If replicated more widely.... hmmmm.
My estimate has gone down from 200 to about 120 seats. Yes, I am a natural optimist. This is going to be the worst defeat in Conservative party history.
I've been to Richmond (Yorks) a number of times. If the Tories are needing to rush campaigners in there to try to fight off Labour, 120 is likely a significant overestimate. But we'll see.
I think everything depends on how what's left of the Tory core feels come polling day. If those who've gone on strike (by choosing to abstain, and particularly by going off to Reform in a huff) decide to hold their noses and vote Tory after all, the party can still get away with a 1997 level pasting. If they don't, what's left of the Parliamentary Conservative Party might easily fit into one bus.
What seats are going to be won against the tide? That is, a loss when the party is mostly making gains, or a gain when the party is mostly seeing losses.
Labour will win big, but they could lose a couple, maybe Islington N and Bristol C?
I can’t see the Tories gaining any seats, or the LibDems losing any.
The SNP could gain ANME, while losing seats elsewhere.
The Greens could lose Brighton while increasing vote share and maybe even gaining a seat elsewhere.
Somewhere there must be a massive factory producing beautiful French towns. It seems to have an inexhaustible supply, like wales of old with brilliant fly halves
What seats are going to be won against the tide? That is, a loss when the party is mostly making gains, or a gain when the party is mostly seeing losses.
Labour will win big, but they could lose a couple, maybe Islington N and Bristol C?
I can’t see the Tories gaining any seats, or the LibDems losing any.
The SNP could gain ANME, while losing seats elsewhere.
The Greens could lose Brighton while increasing vote share and maybe even gaining a seat elsewhere.
Key message they wanted to tell me: 'don't believe polls. still very tight.'
Not even a leaflet yet from tory party.
It is an awful lot of polls from a number of different polling companies to disbelieve.
Lab strategists presumably panicking a bit that this now considered a done deal and a lot of voters will stay at home assuming Lab have won a landslide.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
Collapse is the word. I've never seen anything like it - but you may have done. 1997 for the Tories and 2015 for Labour, yes?
My sense up here is this. There is a Tory and SNP core vote who would vote for them even as the party sacrificed their children's futures. There are a really small number of people who have flit from Con to SNP and SNP to Con - not bothered about independence, but want to have some feel good in their lives.
Then you have the majority of voters. Who as all 3 candidates at the hustings admitted are telling us they are fed up with an economy which makes the cost of living difficult and fed up with crumbling public services. They're also telling me they are fed up with broken promises from the other two.
My instinct is that an awful lot of voters remain undecided, desperately put off by the ScotCon campaign of "Only we can stop the SNP" and the SNP campaign of "only we can stop the Tories". Very different in central belt seats where there is Labour, but not up here.
Can I attract them? Hope so. In enough numbers? Its a challenge. They may all flock back to vote SNConP. But if they do, they won't be happy, especially if the Cons and SNP go back to focusing on infighting and ignoring the voters.
As I have said before my vote is essentially pro Unionist and anti SNP than pro Tory, especially this time. If I was still in Dundee West I would have voted Labour. If I was in NE Fife I would have voted Lib Dem. As I am in Angus and the Perthshire Glens I will vote Tory.
I honestly don't think that this is a good time for the Lib Dems, our politics are too polarised. 2026 may be a different story.
Somewhere there must be a massive factory producing beautiful French towns. It seems to have an inexhaustible supply, like wales of old with brilliant fly halves
Are you going to Guerande and La Baule whilst in that part of the world?
I've found a new constituency which is probably going to mess up Leon's no Tory seats bet: Wetherby & Easingword. Estimated result last time: Con 68%, Lab 18%, LD 8%, Green 4%.
Just heard on the radio news that a Tory candidate called James Sunderland called the Rwanda policy crap in private and went on to praise it in public.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
I met Stephen Kerr, who is our Conservative candidate, this morning. Nice man, couthy farmer type. Very mainstream and public service orientated. I wish him every success and will vote for him but the extent to which the Tory vote is absolutely collapsing gives him almost no chance.
If PB Tories are anything to go by, the Conservatives will win a majority on the 4th July. Everyone is finding an excuse.
If replicated more widely.... hmmmm.
I'm not sure they are finding an excuse: it seems to me that even the most committed Cons on here have lessened their expectations. I still think that makes many of them overoptimistic, but there's an undercurrent of resignation that speaks to what they are finding out and about.
Key message they wanted to tell me: 'don't believe polls. still very tight.'
Not even a leaflet yet from tory party.
It is an awful lot of polls from a number of different polling companies to disbelieve.
Lab strategists presumably panicking a bit that this now considered a done deal and a lot of voters will stay at home assuming Lab have won a landslide.
I think this is a real risk. Anecdotally I am starting to hear of anti-Tory voters deciding not to bother as Labour "will win anyway", or to perhaps vote for another party to stop Labour from being too dominant.
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
Key message they wanted to tell me: 'don't believe polls. still very tight.'
Not even a leaflet yet from tory party.
It is an awful lot of polls from a number of different polling companies to disbelieve.
Lab strategists presumably panicking a bit that this now considered a done deal and a lot of voters will stay at home assuming Lab have won a landslide.
NO canvasser in any election will ever tell you anything other than "it's very tight" or "it's going well but it's very close" or whatever. Even if the canvasser knew the numbers (very unlikely), the line would be never to divulge them and certianly not to the electorate.
Saying "we're 20 points ahead" or "we're 20 points behind" isn't helpful - the former doesn't encourage your supporters to vote and the latter encourages those opposed to vote.
Canvassing (if done properly) can be very helpful but it's not the only information source available.
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
High density housing, a coherent but quirky style, walkable town centre, bustling on-street hospitality.
If a visitor from Neptune came to visit Britain then France he would have no trouble working out which country, in its desperation and obvious decay, is about to elect a hard right party with Nazi antecedents, and which country, prosperous and spacious and possessed of great beauty - urban and rural - is about to re-elect a boring managerial centrist to keep things sweet
And the visitor from Neptune would be completely wrong
Key message they wanted to tell me: 'don't believe polls. still very tight.'
Not even a leaflet yet from tory party.
It is an awful lot of polls from a number of different polling companies to disbelieve.
Lab strategists presumably panicking a bit that this now considered a done deal and a lot of voters will stay at home assuming Lab have won a landslide.
I think this is a real risk. Anecdotally I am starting to hear of anti-Tory voters deciding not to bother as Labour "will win anyway", or to perhaps vote for another party to stop Labour from being too dominant.
Perversely then, IF the polls start to show a slight closing of the gap in favour of the Conservatives, the more it will motivate Labour supporters to turn out and vote Labour.
This is what happened with Khan and Hall in London - the more likely it seemed Hall "could" win, the more it enabled Khan to squeeze LD and Green voters to ensure she didn't win.
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
You could become a YouTube travel blogger/thriller writer
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
If only we had a decent travel writer in our midst, we wouldn't have to make do with using our imaginations...
I won't be around much today, but my photo today is political.
A few people have had a go Lee Anderson for hard right / far right associations, and targeting that vote. Hardly a surprise in a constituency where in 2010 was BNP 5.8% / UKIP and English Democrat about 2% each, and 2015 was UKIP 21.5%. Notably with a group called the Skegby Scooter Club.
This is a piccie of the Hells Angels Clubhouse in Lee's old Council Seat area, at a funeral gathering for the chapter President in 2014. Photo from the Mansfield Chad. There are under 20 HA chapters in the UK on te latest count I have seen, and this one is active. I'd like to see some journo's asking about any relationship with them - but so far not a sausage.
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
You mean a real leader that embraces centrist realism to get elected, like, um, the current leader.
Go ahead and put Truss or Braverman or JRM in as LOTO. Be my guest. I suspect you will eventually have an Erich Honecker "moment" and demand that we need a more right wing electorate...
We've had a few Tory leaders on the right. Some of them have failed to win elections. None of them has ever subjected the party to the nuclear annihilation we're currently witnessing. 'The grown ups' own this.
If you fail to see the hand of Truss in the current difficulty the Conservative Party is in we can’t help you. If that failure is replicated within the party then it’s beyond salvation.
I don't fail to see it. Of course the crashing and burning of Truss was awful for the Tories. But nobody (except the electors of South West Norfolk) is voting for another 5 years of Truss - they're deciding if they want 5 more years of Sunak as PM, and Sunak's policy programme being implemented.
He has a policy programme? Huge news. Are they announcing it tomorrow?
Key message they wanted to tell me: 'don't believe polls. still very tight.'
Not even a leaflet yet from tory party.
It is an awful lot of polls from a number of different polling companies to disbelieve.
Lab strategists presumably panicking a bit that this now considered a done deal and a lot of voters will stay at home assuming Lab have won a landslide.
NO canvasser in any election will ever tell you anything other than "it's very tight" or "it's going well but it's very close" or whatever. Even if the canvasser knew the numbers (very unlikely), the line would be never to divulge them and certianly not to the electorate.
Saying "we're 20 points ahead" or "we're 20 points behind" isn't helpful - the former doesn't encourage your supporters to vote and the latter encourages those opposed to vote.
Canvassing (if done properly) can be very helpful but it's not the only information source available.
As with conjurors, ignore what they say, watch what they do and (most important of all) where they do it.
What seats are going to be won against the tide? That is, a loss when the party is mostly making gains, or a gain when the party is mostly seeing losses.
Labour will win big, but they could lose a couple, maybe Islington N and Bristol C?
I can’t see the Tories gaining any seats, or the LibDems losing any.
The SNP could gain ANME, while losing seats elsewhere.
The Greens could lose Brighton while increasing vote share and maybe even gaining a seat elsewhere.
What else?
Perth and Kinross has a chance of being a Tory gain, depends on who is losing more votes in Southern Perthshire Labour might lose Rochdale, or at least Galloway hold the by election gain Birmingham Ladywood is close, Yakoob has the big mo but it all to do Reform in the red wall is an unknown quantity Not a gain but I can see Selby going back to the blues from the by election in some circs
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
I remember a short story that I read at school which involved a verger who was squeezed out of his parish when the priest found that he couldn't read. Disconsolate, he wandered down a very long street looking to buy some cigarettes. And he couldn't find any so he opened a small shop. Time went by and he did the same again and again, finding places not served by others. He eventually ends up quite wealthy. Admirers are always astonished that he still can't read. What would you have been able to be if you had learned, they ask. To which the answer was, inevitably, a verger.
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
High density housing, a coherent but quirky style, walkable town centre, bustling on-street hospitality.
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
A very lame looking hen weekend in the bottom left.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Here is my list of possible Lib Dem seats in decreasing order of probability. The probability weighted total is 52 seats.
Bath 100% Kingston 100% Orkney and Shetland 100% Oxford West and Abingdon 100% Richmond Park 100% St Albans 100% Twickenham 100% St Ives 98% Cheadle 95% Winchester 95% Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross 95% Edinburgh West 95% Fife North East 95% Westmorland and Lonsdale 95% Esher and Walton 93% Cheltenham 93% Carshalton and Wallington 91% Eastbourne 91% Hazel Grove 91% Taunton and Wellington 91% Wimbledon 90% Guildford 89% Shropshire North 89% Lewes 85% Glastonbury and Somerton 83% Woking 83% Wokingham 83% Eastleigh 83% Norfolk North 83% Harrogate and Knaresborough 82% Cambridgeshire South 81% Chesham and Amersham 76% Cotswolds South 76% Godalming and Ash 76% Honiton and Sidmouth 76% Wells and Mendip Hills 75% Devon South 71% Dorking and Horley 71% Dorset West 71% Yeovil 71% Cornwall North 70% Thornbury and Yate 69% Mid Dunbartonshire 69% Bicester and Woodstock 66% Devon North 64% Chelmsford 62% Chippenham 62% Henley and Thame 61% Newbury 60% Tunbridge Wells 60% St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire 58% Surrey Heath 57% Dorset Mid and Poole North 57% Romsey and Southampton North 56% Harpenden and Berkhamsted 56% Didcot and Wantage 56% Sutton and Cheam 56% Frome and East Somerset 53% Chichester 50% Farnham and Bordon 50% Witney 49% Ely and East Cambridgeshire 48% Newton Abbot 47% Torbay 45% Stratford on Avon 43% Mid Sussex 41% Maidenhead 40% Epsom and Ewell 35% Melksham and Devises 34% Horsham 34% Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 31% Tiverton and Minehead 25% Tewksbury 24% West Dorset 10% Hampshire North East 10% Dorset North 5% Cotswolds North 5% Hertfordshire South West 5% Fareham and Waterloo 1%
Key message they wanted to tell me: 'don't believe polls. still very tight.'
Not even a leaflet yet from tory party.
It is an awful lot of polls from a number of different polling companies to disbelieve.
Lab strategists presumably panicking a bit that this now considered a done deal and a lot of voters will stay at home assuming Lab have won a landslide.
NO canvasser in any election will ever tell you anything other than "it's very tight" or "it's going well but it's very close" or whatever. Even if the canvasser knew the numbers (very unlikely), the line would be never to divulge them and certianly not to the electorate.
Saying "we're 20 points ahead" or "we're 20 points behind" isn't helpful - the former doesn't encourage your supporters to vote and the latter encourages those opposed to vote.
Canvassing (if done properly) can be very helpful but it's not the only information source available.
As with conjurors, ignore what they say, watch what they do and (most important of all) where they do it.
That will be the answer you seek.
One of my old favourites was where people put their polling cards by the front door with the leaflet of the candidate for whom they intended to vote so they wouldn't forget the name on the ballot paper.
You could tell for whom they were going to vote without even knocking on the door but it was fun to watch them try to claim "they weren't sure" or "they hadn't made up their mind". Not foolproof by any stretch but a good indicator.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
Anyone know the cut off to vote for Tory leader? I’ve never joined a political party before but just have to write a cheque to the Tories in order to try to keep them in the centre.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Here is my list of possible Lib Dem seats in decreasing order of probability. The probability weighted total is 52 seats.
Bath 100% Kingston 100% Orkney and Shetland 100% Oxford West and Abingdon 100% Richmond Park 100% St Albans 100% Twickenham 100% St Ives 98% Cheadle 95% Winchester 95% Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross 95% Edinburgh West 95% Fife North East 95% Westmorland and Lonsdale 95% Esher and Walton 93% Cheltenham 93% Carshalton and Wallington 91% Eastbourne 91% Hazel Grove 91% Taunton and Wellington 91% Wimbledon 90% Guildford 89% Shropshire North 89% Lewes 85% Glastonbury and Somerton 83% Woking 83% Wokingham 83% Eastleigh 83% Norfolk North 83% Harrogate and Knaresborough 82% Cambridgeshire South 81% Chesham and Amersham 76% Cotswolds South 76% Godalming and Ash 76% Honiton and Sidmouth 76% Wells and Mendip Hills 75% Devon South 71% Dorking and Horley 71% Dorset West 71% Yeovil 71% Cornwall North 70% Thornbury and Yate 69% Mid Dunbartonshire 69% Bicester and Woodstock 66% Devon North 64% Chelmsford 62% Chippenham 62% Henley and Thame 61% Newbury 60% Tunbridge Wells 60% St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire 58% Surrey Heath 57% Dorset Mid and Poole North 57% Romsey and Southampton North 56% Harpenden and Berkhamsted 56% Didcot and Wantage 56% Sutton and Cheam 56% Frome and East Somerset 53% Chichester 50% Farnham and Bordon 50% Witney 49% Ely and East Cambridgeshire 48% Newton Abbot 47% Torbay 45% Stratford on Avon 43% Mid Sussex 41% Maidenhead 40% Epsom and Ewell 35% Melksham and Devises 34% Horsham 34% Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 31% Tiverton and Minehead 25% Tewksbury 24% West Dorset 10% Hampshire North East 10% Dorset North 5% Cotswolds North 5% Hertfordshire South West 5% Fareham and Waterloo 1%
Total possible gains 52
Its basically naice places to live.
Nimbyland, UK ?
If I put my MMGA hat on, that is all "bits of the South", or "bits of the South located in the North", plus a few "bits of the South in Scotland, with extra hills or islands". Apologies to Wales if I missed any.
Comments
This quite possibly isn’t the birth of a Labour hegemony, so much as phase two of the birthing pains of something quite different (and for many of us on here - quite terrifying).
Our views make for a much more interesting Brexit debate than the usual nonsense, because (hopefully) each can see a logic in the other’s position.
A lot depends on how much attention each of the opposition parties can get to make their criticism of the future Labour government. Which makes the precise details of this election so very important, and why there is so much to play for, even though we mostly believe that Labour will surely win by some distance.
Were the Greens to win more seats than Reform, that would make a difference. The attention the Liberal Democrats will get from the BBC will be much greater if they have ~60 seats, than if they have ~30. For the Tories there are critical thresholds of credibility at 100 and 150 seats.
https://x.com/williamshatner/status/1803869174764311018?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
As we get closer to nominations it becomes more of an insider game, and we know there are more than one or two who like to play that game.
My sense up here is this. There is a Tory and SNP core vote who would vote for them even as the party sacrificed their children's futures. There are a really small number of people who have flit from Con to SNP and SNP to Con - not bothered about independence, but want to have some feel good in their lives.
Then you have the majority of voters. Who as all 3 candidates at the hustings admitted are telling us they are fed up with an economy which makes the cost of living difficult and fed up with crumbling public services. They're also telling me they are fed up with broken promises from the other two.
My instinct is that an awful lot of voters remain undecided, desperately put off by the ScotCon campaign of "Only we can stop the SNP" and the SNP campaign of "only we can stop the Tories". Very different in central belt seats where there is Labour, but not up here.
Can I attract them? Hope so. In enough numbers? Its a challenge. They may all flock back to vote SNConP. But if they do, they won't be happy, especially if the Cons and SNP go back to focusing on infighting and ignoring the voters.
But Europe (which provided a lot of the manufacturing technology for China) really ought to have done so.
Chinese solar generation in is up 45% over the last year, and represented 9.7% of all the country's electricity generation in May
Hard to overstate the scale & speed of this transition
https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1804511617557602394
He is focused on getting what were traditionally Labour voters in our former seat to switch to him as the most likely Unionist in this new seat. For the last few elections the Unionist vote has been increasing in efficiency as people got that the SNP were the enemy but I fear this time will be an exception because very few Labour voters will be able to screw themselves up to vote for this shower, however nice the local candidate is. I am not finding it easy myself.
The forecast that I see on that site is Lib Dem 27.8% and Con 26.1%, with the Labour candidate in third place on 17.6%.
Lots of juicy Labour votes for the Lib Dems to squeeze there, if people decide that really do want to get the former Tory MP out.
And it's worth remembering that Labour do no have a single district councillor anywhere in the constituency.
Are you betting on this seat, Ms Heathener?
Bath 100%
Kingston 100%
Orkney and Shetland 100%
Oxford West and Abingdon 100%
Richmond Park 100%
St Albans 100%
Twickenham 100%
St Ives 98%
Cheadle 95%
Winchester 95%
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross 95%
Edinburgh West 95%
Fife North East 95%
Westmorland and Lonsdale 95%
Esher and Walton 93%
Cheltenham 93%
Carshalton and Wallington 91%
Eastbourne 91%
Hazel Grove 91%
Taunton and Wellington 91%
Wimbledon 90%
Guildford 89%
Shropshire North 89%
Lewes 85%
Glastonbury and Somerton 83%
Woking 83%
Wokingham 83%
Eastleigh 83%
Norfolk North 83%
Harrogate and Knaresborough 82%
Cambridgeshire South 81%
Chesham and Amersham 76%
Cotswolds South 76%
Godalming and Ash 76%
Honiton and Sidmouth 76%
Wells and Mendip Hills 75%
Devon South 71%
Dorking and Horley 71%
Dorset West 71%
Yeovil 71%
Cornwall North 70%
Thornbury and Yate 69%
Mid Dunbartonshire 69%
Bicester and Woodstock 66%
Devon North 64%
Chelmsford 62%
Chippenham 62%
Henley and Thame 61%
Newbury 60%
Tunbridge Wells 60%
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire 58%
Surrey Heath 57%
Dorset Mid and Poole North 57%
Romsey and Southampton North 56%
Harpenden and Berkhamsted 56%
Didcot and Wantage 56%
Sutton and Cheam 56%
Frome and East Somerset 53%
Chichester 50%
Farnham and Bordon 50%
Witney 49%
Ely and East Cambridgeshire 48%
Newton Abbot 47%
Torbay 45%
Stratford on Avon 43%
Mid Sussex 41%
Maidenhead 40%
Epsom and Ewell 35%
Melksham and Devises 34%
Horsham 34%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 31%
Tiverton and Minehead 25%
Tewksbury 24%
West Dorset 10%
Hampshire North East 10%
Dorset North 5%
Cotswolds North 5%
Hertfordshire South West 5%
Fareham and Waterloo 1%
Total possible gains 52
Although that ukelects site is not very user friendly. They are on here so I don’t want to be critical given all the hard work which has undoubtedly gone into it.
It’s a wonderful system that allows me, a brown skinned grandchild of immigrants, to join it and be called a toff by those same peasants.
Hi Clipp. No I’m keeping away from that market.
I have bet today on Sunak losing his seat though
Anyway, this is one of those foundational arguments that repeat ad nauseam on here and get nowhere! I have to go and be a car park attendant at an Early Music festival. Later!
This absolutely ties in with what I am hearing and feeling on the doors. The desire for change is huge. They just may not be happy talking about it.
BETTING POST - how many voters across the country have similar views? How many shy Cons are hiding? Or, flipping over, how many people are planning to vote against them in true blue areas but like people here are reluctant to say so?
DYOR
If replicated more widely.... hmmmm.
Of course that's not to say they won't think it's a brilliant idea.
The danger this time is that the defeat is so bad that even a swivel-eyed loon party does better in the next election thus "justifying" that the loons' platform is the way to go and thus prolonging the wilderness years for another parliament or two.
Key message they wanted to tell me: 'don't believe polls. still very tight.'
Not even a leaflet yet from tory party.
OTOH, you have the Duguid fiasco and general vibe. If you're picking up serious discontent even in Scotland...
Who knows?!
My big hope is that the cull clears out the crazies to an extent that grown-ups can step in.
like Brexit, public services, taxation etc are in the shade by comparison and often complicated by who is actually responsible. OTOH the Douglas Ross fiasco didn't exactly help. Not quite a D Day or Bettingate fiasco but really not clever.
Anyone know the cut off to vote for Tory leader? I’ve never joined a political party before but just have to write a cheque to the Tories in order to try to keep them in the centre.
Is it still 6 weeks?
I think everything depends on how what's left of the Tory core feels come polling day. If those who've gone on strike (by choosing to abstain, and particularly by going off to Reform in a huff) decide to hold their noses and vote Tory after all, the party can still get away with a 1997 level pasting. If they don't, what's left of the Parliamentary Conservative Party might easily fit into one bus.
Labour will win big, but they could lose a couple, maybe Islington N and Bristol C?
I can’t see the Tories gaining any seats, or the LibDems losing any.
The SNP could gain ANME, while losing seats elsewhere.
The Greens could lose Brighton while increasing vote share and maybe even gaining a seat elsewhere.
What else?
I honestly don't think that this is a good time for the Lib Dems, our politics are too polarised. 2026 may be a different story.
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2570
What do you think of Sunderland? Shit!
What do you think of shit? Sunderland!
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
Saying "we're 20 points ahead" or "we're 20 points behind" isn't helpful - the former doesn't encourage your supporters to vote and the latter encourages those opposed to vote.
Canvassing (if done properly) can be very helpful but it's not the only information source available.
Far too difficult for the UK of course.
And the visitor from Neptune would be completely wrong
This is what happened with Khan and Hall in London - the more likely it seemed Hall "could" win, the more it enabled Khan to squeeze LD and Green voters to ensure she didn't win.
Thank-you for the header.
I won't be around much today, but my photo today is political.
A few people have had a go Lee Anderson for hard right / far right associations, and targeting that vote. Hardly a surprise in a constituency where in 2010 was BNP 5.8% / UKIP and English Democrat about 2% each, and 2015 was UKIP 21.5%. Notably with a group called the Skegby Scooter Club.
This is a piccie of the Hells Angels Clubhouse in Lee's old Council Seat area, at a funeral gathering for the chapter President in 2014. Photo from the Mansfield Chad.
There are under 20 HA chapters in the UK on te latest count I have seen, and this one is active. I'd like to see some journo's asking about any relationship with them - but so far not a sausage.
That will be the answer you seek.
Labour might lose Rochdale, or at least Galloway hold the by election gain
Birmingham Ladywood is close, Yakoob has the big mo but it all to do
Reform in the red wall is an unknown quantity
Not a gain but I can see Selby going back to the blues from the by election in some circs
https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1804590189567742261
The ratings of SKS do not imply that Labour is losing ground. The more that the voters have seen him, the more they approve of him.
You could tell for whom they were going to vote without even knocking on the door but it was fun to watch them try to claim "they weren't sure" or "they hadn't made up their mind". Not foolproof by any stretch but a good indicator.
If I put my MMGA hat on, that is all "bits of the South", or "bits of the South located in the North", plus a few "bits of the South in Scotland, with extra hills or islands". Apologies to Wales if I missed any.
The rest of the town is just ridiculously pretty
But will the cathedral be sans noom?