Mr. Eagles, it's certainly an original conspiracy lunacy, claiming Jews are trying to get more third world immigrants into the same country as them. So points for creativity, at least.
Gambling regulator on hunt for more 21 May bettors
I notice Moon Rabbit has gone uncharacteristically silent on her clairvoyance....
Nah, like a stopped clock etc, or did you miss their months of spamming about a May election?
You may have missed it because I am modest and I don't like to brag, I tipped a July election at 20s.
no point replying “same old loon rabbit, never change” like often @TSE - because you know I always head the game on political insight and analysis and first on those things people failed to spot and realise.
And this simple logic and math is such example. If you look at the comparative piddly amounts of money being endlessly argued over in this campaign and manifestos, £7B black hole here, £1.5 tax grab there - But £7.94 billion ALONE got wasted on overpriced, unsuitable and unused PPE - one example Sterile surgical gowns provided by PPE Medpro under a £122 MILLION contract and were never ever USEABLE Rishi Sunak handed billions of pounds of tax payers money straight over to fraudsters and criminal underworld gangs, simply by being incompetent at running a furlough scheme - THAT SAME furlough scheme he’s trying to dine out on as his USP. Fact! https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9738735/Fraud-blunders-Covid-support-schemes-cost-taxpayers-30bn-MPs-warn.html
Sheer scale of profligate with tax payers money in this parliament - biggest credit crunch ever yet Fifty million on a new helicopter for MPs to fly around in - WTF Labour should be on the attack, daily - No Tory government has ever been so free and wasteful with tax payers money, yet Labour havn’t used this attack AT ALL. 🤷♀️. Why that eh? I’ll tell you. Labour campaign is rubbish as voters see Labour in up to their eyebrows in this parliaments sleaze. Labour = conspiracy of silence on the waste and corruption of the last 5 years. Simples.
Political sleaze, and Labours limp attempt to differentiate themselves from it, is the big narrative to drag Labours support down even further before polling day. History books say Labour flopped an opportunity in 2024 election, because Labour didn’t differentiate themselves on sleazy time politicians have had in it, and Labour left themselves seen as much the same. And that is so funny. 🙂
Funnier still, the big take out from this campaign not made any of your headers.
I’m off to play with Wilbur 🙋♀️
Perhaps the problem is that government spending is now well over a TRILLION quid a year.
Which means that mere MILLIONS are two orders of magnitude down on the monetary scale.
And seemingly trivial at government level but not to ordinary people who think in THOUSANDS.
I have not been closely following the Mercer stuff, what's the consensus, is he toast over this?
He was already toast, this is just the charcoal on top.
Surprised to see you describe yourself as centre-right. I had you on the left of the spectrum.
I don't find that a useful distinction.
I am dry as dust on financial and economic policy, Internationalist on foreign and environmental policy, liberal on social and cultural issues, though actually fairly socially conventional myself, being a church going family man.
It's why I supported the Coalition government 2010-2015, and find Ed Davey closest to my political views.
I couldn't run for office, I don't think there is a party that fits.
Fair enough, I was just surprised that you yourself categorised yourself as centre-right.
Mr. Eagles, it's certainly an original conspiracy lunacy, claiming Jews are trying to get more third world immigrants into the same country as them. So points for creativity, at least.
Hardly original. The "Great Replacement" is a fairly old school anti-semitic trope that has roots as far back as the Protocols of the Elders of Zion.
It makes a change from left wing anti-semitism I suppose.
Sir Bradley Wiggins’s fall from cycling superstar to sofa surfer
The financial troubles of the Olympic gold medallist and Britain’s first Tour de France winner have left him homeless and bankrupt
Sitting on a gold throne after winning a fourth Olympic gold, Sir Bradley Wiggins was at the peak of a glittering career that catalysed a British cycling revolution.
He was the first Briton to win the gruelling Tour de France, won five Olympic gold medals and built up an estimated net worth of £13 million.
But little more than ten years on from London 2012, the hero affectionately dubbed “Sir Wiggo” has been left bankrupt and in effect homeless, “sofa surfing” between family and friends.
His marriage has collapsed, his £975,000 family home has been repossessed and the Mallorca villa he once called a “home from home” is believed to have been lost in the scramble to cover his debts.
He was even said to have spent some time living in a VW camper van, which was lent to him in return for social media posts and was later said to have been found “trashed” in a car park.
A house he rented for six months in the Lancashire resort town of Lytham St Annes was allegedly left looking like a “dosshouse” with cigarette butts on the floor, according to a source.
The bankruptcy means he may have to sell his Olympic medals to repay the debts. It is a sad downfall for a sporting hero who helped turn cycling from a niche sport into a national obsession. Wiggins is said to blame “the ‘professional negligence’ of others” and is considering legal action.
I've been following this for a while, and it seems another sad case of someone who excelled in one area being rather less excellent at managing money, and perhaps who to trust with his money. A situation made worse as his fame waned and doping allegations grew.
Good morning, everyone.
I think the Times account is very much the tabloid version.
If I had to identify Sir Bradley's mistakes it would be around poor advice and not insulating his personal affairs from his business affairs - so the collapse of the latter hit the former. He did some quite unusual things - including starting his own professional team, and I don't know how these were set up.
The closest comparison I think I can find is F1 drivers who started their own teams, of which there are quite a number.
And also Chris Boardman is a part parallel, who won TDF stages, Olympic and world gold medals, and world records, about 10 years earlier, and went into business, and now has had a career as an effective administrator in the public sector.
I think one saving grace for Wiggo may be if his wife owns half of various assets, which would be a base for his separated family.
I have not been closely following the Mercer stuff, what's the consensus, is he toast over this?
He was already toast, this is just the charcoal on top.
Surprised to see you describe yourself as centre-right. I had you on the left of the spectrum.
I don't find that a useful distinction.
I am dry as dust on financial and economic policy, Internationalist on foreign and environmental policy, liberal on social and cultural issues, though actually fairly socially conventional myself, being a church going family man.
It's why I supported the Coalition government 2010-2015, and find Ed Davey closest to my political views.
I couldn't run for office, I don't think there is a party that fits.
Fair enough, I was just surprised that you yourself categorised yourself as centre-right.
It assumes that a criminal offence has been committed, which is questionable.
I’d have thought you could make a pretty strong case that anyone who was directly involved in the election decision committed a criminal offence if they then bet on it before the announcement.
But far less certain for anyone else.
Criminal law doesn’t appear particularly well defined in this area, FWIW.
The clever wheeze here is if they were acting individually they are probably off the hook BUT if you can find WhatsApps between two or more of them saying Let's have a cheeky punt on July you can charge with common law conspiracy to defraud and you are off to the races.
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage · 10h I am one of the few figures that have been consistent & honest about the war with Russia.
Putin was wrong to invade a sovereign nation, and the EU was wrong to expand eastward.
The sooner we realise this, the closer we will be to ending the war and delivering peace.
Of course he is. He has done it again. He has set off a s***storm infuriating fashionable opinion and getting ubiquitous publicity with all the fury, with fashionable opinions glee that he has "ratnered" himself then turning in the following days to dispair as they find it is actually making him more popular as millions are fed up with our leaders wasting our money trying to be world policeman interfering in foreign disputes, and think "anyway, at least Putin dosent allow all that trans bollocks in Russia".
“Trying to be world policemen interfering in foreign disputes”.
“A quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing”.
We were the worlds superpower then with a vast empire and vast armed forces. We are not now
How far west would Russia have to come before it became of concern to you ?
Considering that it has taken Russia 3 years, 500 000 casualties, most of their modern tanks and artillery, a considerable proportion of their airforce and navy to take a few Donbas rustbelt colliery towns, their conventional threat is not something that we really need to get worried about. Their nuclear forces may be equally decrepit and dysfunctional but I would not want to find out.
It's their subversion and destabilising effect on Western societies that is the real threat now, such as their hacking of the NHS blood results in London, and funding of far right and left groups across our societies, including Farage, Le Pen, AfD etc. We should not tolerate these "useful idiots".
Incidentally, it looks like RN in France has taken down its Putin friendly defence and foreign policy documents from its website.
I would suggest that the 'everything is broken' claims followed by a 'no changes apart from VAT on private schools' strategy also plays into the hands of those who wish to destabilise this country.
Four discordant thoughts before the day overtakes me:
1) The polls haven't moved too much since the election was called - the Labour lead remains in the low 20s (the odd outlier notwithstanding). Both they and the Conservatives have drifted lower at the expense of Reform but no seismic shifts as yet (the odd outlier poll notwithstanding). I think a lot of people haven't engaged with the election yet and won't until the final 72 hours - that explains the Conservative social media blitz which will start on July 1st.
2) SHOULDHAVEBEENARING each way for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Ascot this afternoon.
3) Farage is wrong on Ukraine but there is a point about the actions of the west in the immediate aftermath of the sudden and probably unexpected collapse of the Warsaw Pact in 1989. Did we get it wrong then as we did in 1918-19? Not sure - Thatcher had a point of sorts but German reunification was unstoppable. The impacts of those events are still reverberating around Europe.
4) It's going to be much tougher for the bookmakers in the next few years. There is an anti-gambling sentiment building and there is going to be some pain. The horse racing specialist channels are talking about pulling out of Ireland if bookmaker advertising is restricted - I suspect a new Labour Government will try something similar here.
I honestly dont think the Farage thing has much cut through. Itv news led on the betting scandal last night for example and Farage will have cleared his comments beforehand. Farage from his talks in the pubs will have seen that support for the ukraine war is wilting and would have tailored his message accordingly. The hysterical attacks on him cement his reputation as the anti establishment guy.
Few people who do not share our passion for betting understand much about gambling. When I tell people that bookmakers won't take my bets because I am too successful they are generally genuinely surprised that is legal. They don't understand the nuances and see it as a black and white issue.
Same applies to Sunak's people betting on the date of the GE. Punters like us can see the angles, but it's absolutely straight forward cheating to most people. Worse, it's the kind of thing they would love to do themselves but can't because they don't have the connections and never will have.
That's really annoying. No wonder it cut through.
Spot on. Legal or illegal, to most people the insider betting is just WRONG.
Farage is a lucky guy* - his car-crash interview has been sunk by Bettinggate.
I honestly dont think the Farage thing has much cut through. Itv news led on the betting scandal last night for example and Farage will have cleared his comments beforehand. Farage from his talks in the pubs will have seen that support for the ukraine war is wilting and would have tailored his message accordingly. The hysterical attacks on him cement his reputation as the anti establishment guy.
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage · 10h I am one of the few figures that have been consistent & honest about the war with Russia.
Putin was wrong to invade a sovereign nation, and the EU was wrong to expand eastward.
The sooner we realise this, the closer we will be to ending the war and delivering peace.
Of course he is. He has done it again. He has set off a s***storm infuriating fashionable opinion and getting ubiquitous publicity with all the fury, with fashionable opinions glee that he has "ratnered" himself then turning in the following days to dispair as they find it is actually making him more popular as millions are fed up with our leaders wasting our money trying to be world policeman interfering in foreign disputes, and think "anyway, at least Putin dosent allow all that trans bollocks in Russia".
“Trying to be world policemen interfering in foreign disputes”.
“A quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing”.
We were the worlds superpower then with a vast empire and vast armed forces. We are not now
How far west would Russia have to come before it became of concern to you ?
Considering that it has taken Russia 3 years, 500 000 casualties, most of their modern tanks and artillery, a considerable proportion of their airforce and navy to take a few Donbas rustbelt colliery towns, their conventional threat is not something that we really need to get worried about. Their nuclear forces may be equally decrepit and dysfunctional but I would not want to find out.
It's their subversion and destabilising effect on Western societies that is the real threat now, such as their hacking of the NHS blood results in London, and funding of far right and left groups across our societies, including Farage, Le Pen, AfD etc. We should not tolerate these "useful idiots".
Incidentally, it looks like RN in France has taken down its Putin friendly defence and foreign policy documents from its website.
I would suggest that the 'everything is broken' claims followed by a 'no changes apart from VAT on private schools' strategy also plays into the hands of those who wish to destabilise this country.
Okaaaaaaaaaaaaay…
Claiming that 'everything is broken' and then not offering anything radical as a remedy leads to people looking to those at the extremes who are offering the radical changes.
I honestly dont think the Farage thing has much cut through. Itv news led on the betting scandal last night for example and Farage will have cleared his comments beforehand. Farage from his talks in the pubs will have seen that support for the ukraine war is wilting and would have tailored his message accordingly. The hysterical attacks on him cement his reputation as the anti establishment guy.
So your first post on this forum after joining this month is, essentially, a defence of Putin’s pocket docket. Hmmm …
Anyway, if you are bona fide, welcome. I merely note that the record on this forum for calling it right about what does and does not cut through, even from seasoned posters, is not a good one. Good luck with yours!
I have not been closely following the Mercer stuff, what's the consensus, is he toast over this?
He was already toast, this is just the charcoal on top.
Surprised to see you describe yourself as centre-right. I had you on the left of the spectrum.
I don't find that a useful distinction.
I am dry as dust on financial and economic policy, Internationalist on foreign and environmental policy, liberal on social and cultural issues, though actually fairly socially conventional myself, being a church going family man.
It's why I supported the Coalition government 2010-2015, and find Ed Davey closest to my political views.
I couldn't run for office, I don't think there is a party that fits.
Ditto, which makes me an Orange Booker I think. Very pro free enterprise and freedom of the individual, but want everyone to have an equally good opportunity to health care and education and want the state to protect against abuse in the free market. Very, very socially liberal, although like you I lead a fairly conventional life.
I honestly dont think the Farage thing has much cut through. Itv news led on the betting scandal last night for example and Farage will have cleared his comments beforehand. Farage from his talks in the pubs will have seen that support for the ukraine war is wilting and would have tailored his message accordingly. The hysterical attacks on him cement his reputation as the anti establishment guy.
Farage was foolish to make those comments yesterday - in a basic political way. Bad timing, bad optics. His first big unforced error
He also has long links with Putin’s Russia - like working for RT even after Crimea - which raise eyebrows. I would not be at all surprised if some Russian money is making its way to Reform - but then I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin is pro-SNP either. His aim is to roil and divide the west
However I’ve now spent a month in total in wartime Ukraine. I’ve been to Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi and multiple small towns. And I’ve talked to a lot of Ukrainians and read just about all the Ukrainian history there is
The situation is a lot more nuanced than we like to admit. A fair chunk of Ukraine was founded or developed by Russia and has always been seen as quintessentially Russian - eg Odessa. Crimea likewise. Even now a lot of Ukrainians will express a liking for Russia and Russians, a cousinhood - and they speak Russian - even if they loathe and fear Putin
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from mother Russia.
Admitting this is not popular. We prefer to see everything in black and white as it is easier and morally satisfying. But the history is not black and white
All that said, Putin’s war is hideous and satanic and ultimately disastrous for Russia itself, and Putin must be stopped. He’s a menace to the rest of us and to his own people. And as long as Ukrainians want to fight him we should arm them to the teeth
I have not been closely following the Mercer stuff, what's the consensus, is he toast over this?
He was already toast, this is just the charcoal on top.
Surprised to see you describe yourself as centre-right. I had you on the left of the spectrum.
I don't find that a useful distinction.
I am dry as dust on financial and economic policy, Internationalist on foreign and environmental policy, liberal on social and cultural issues, though actually fairly socially conventional myself, being a church going family man.
It's why I supported the Coalition government 2010-2015, and find Ed Davey closest to my political views.
I couldn't run for office, I don't think there is a party that fits.
Fair enough, I was just surprised that you yourself categorised yourself as centre-right.
On economics I am.
You seem to favour much greater public spending on health (and education?) though. So not clearly so on that either?
lot of people on both sides in the Russia-Ukraine controversy know little or nothing about the subject. The prominent America Russia hawk Robert Kagan, by contrast, understands it very well:
As a non-expert, my first thought was that our players looked knackered but the venue was not hot, humid and halfway up a mountain.
Last night both Dutch and French looked a lot more capable than England at both possession and a pressing defence.
I really cannot see this England team winning. A team is more than individual talent, it needs a level of surrender of ego in order to function, and the inability to do that has long been England's football curse.
Disagree on the route cause. England teams have been hamstrung for decades by poor management and outdated tactics.
France, Germany, Netherlands, Italy (not Spain, I checked) are all managed by managers who have won trophies at club level.
Gareth Southgate's CV is managing a Middlesbrough side he got relegated and then the under 21s. He wasnt even the FA's pick.
Its an interesting theory. More likely Lab are worried about making a rod for their own backs in the future. Lab don't need to sell the 'Cons are corrupt' narrative as everyone have already worked that one out. Its more important to sell the 'Cons are all useless Tunas' narrative which has been working rather well - with the support of the Cons themselves of course.
I don't think we needed any help in seeing this lot as rather fishy either.
Not everything is a russian consoiracy and russian bots arent everywhere. People like foxy become paranoid conspiracy theorists on the subject of russia.
Farage was foolish to make those comments yesterday - in a basic political way. Bad timing, bad optics. His first big unforced error
He also has long links with Putin’s Russia - like working for RT even after Crimea - which raise eyebrows. I would not be at all surprised if some Russian money is making its way to Reform - but then I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin is pro-SNP either. His aim is to roil and divide the west
However I’ve now spent a month in total in wartime Ukraine. I’ve been to Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi and multiple small towns. And I’ve talked to a lot of Ukrainians and read just about all the Ukrainian history there is
The situation is a lot more nuanced than we like to admit. A fair chunk of Ukraine was founded or developed by Russia and has always been seen as quintessentially Russian - eg Odessa. Crimea likewise. Even now a lot of Ukrainians will express a liking for Russia and Russians, a cousinhood - and they speak Russian - even if they loathe and fear Putin
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from mother Russia.
Admitting this is not popular. We prefer to see everything in black and white as it is easier and morally satisfying. But the history is not black and white
All that said, Putin’s war is hideous and satanic and ultimately disastrous for Russia itself, and Putin must be stopped. He’s a menace to the rest of us and to his own people. And as long as Ukrainians want to fight him we should arm them to the teeth
Why do you describe the EU and NATO expansions as 'aggressive' ?
I will be honest some of the paranoia about russia on here borders on mental illness.
We can send you the names of good therapists if it will help your co-workers? But if you are being forced to work shilling for Mr Bareback I'm not surprised you're all a bit paranoid.
Farage was foolish to make those comments yesterday - in a basic political way. Bad timing, bad optics. His first big unforced error
He also has long links with Putin’s Russia - like working for RT even after Crimea - which raise eyebrows. I would not be at all surprised if some Russian money is making its way to Reform - but then I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin is pro-SNP either. His aim is to roil and divide the west
However I’ve now spent a month in total in wartime Ukraine. I’ve been to Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi and multiple small towns. And I’ve talked to a lot of Ukrainians and read just about all the Ukrainian history there is
The situation is a lot more nuanced than we like to admit. A fair chunk of Ukraine was founded or developed by Russia and has always been seen as quintessentially Russian - eg Odessa. Crimea likewise. Even now a lot of Ukrainians will express a liking for Russia and Russians, a cousinhood - and they speak Russian - even if they loathe and fear Putin
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from mother Russia.
Admitting this is not popular. We prefer to see everything in black and white as it is easier and morally satisfying. But the history is not black and white
All that said, Putin’s war is hideous and satanic and ultimately disastrous for Russia itself, and Putin must be stopped. He’s a menace to the rest of us and to his own people. And as long as Ukrainians want to fight him we should arm them to the teeth
Although I have to agree with posters the other day who said that if independent countries want to join the EU/NATO it has nothing to do with Russia, although I can see how it will annoy Russia and cause paranoia.
Farage was foolish to make those comments yesterday - in a basic political way. Bad timing, bad optics. His first big unforced error
He also has long links with Putin’s Russia - like working for RT even after Crimea - which raise eyebrows. I would not be at all surprised if some Russian money is making its way to Reform - but then I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin is pro-SNP either. His aim is to roil and divide the west
However I’ve now spent a month in total in wartime Ukraine. I’ve been to Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi and multiple small towns. And I’ve talked to a lot of Ukrainians and read just about all the Ukrainian history there is
The situation is a lot more nuanced than we like to admit. A fair chunk of Ukraine was founded or developed by Russia and has always been seen as quintessentially Russian - eg Odessa. Crimea likewise. Even now a lot of Ukrainians will express a liking for Russia and Russians, a cousinhood - and they speak Russian - even if they loathe and fear Putin
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from mother Russia.
Admitting this is not popular. We prefer to see everything in black and white as it is easier and morally satisfying. But the history is not black and white
All that said, Putin’s war is hideous and satanic and ultimately disastrous for Russia itself, and Putin must be stopped. He’s a menace to the rest of us and to his own people. And as long as Ukrainians want to fight him we should arm them to the teeth
Also if russia has lost 500000 men how many have ukraine lost. Assume a generous 2 russian killed for every ukrainian that still leaves 250000 ukrainians dead.
It assumes that a criminal offence has been committed, which is questionable.
I’d have thought you could make a pretty strong case that anyone who was directly involved in the election decision committed a criminal offence if they then bet on it before the announcement.
But far less certain for anyone else.
Criminal law doesn’t appear particularly well defined in this area, FWIW.
The clever wheeze here is if they were acting individually they are probably off the hook BUT if you can find WhatsApps between two or more of them saying Let's have a cheeky punt on July you can charge with common law conspiracy to defraud and you are off to the races.
The Gambling Act does not require collusion for an offence of cheating to have occurred.
Few people who do not share our passion for betting understand much about gambling. When I tell people that bookmakers won't take my bets because I am too successful they are generally genuinely surprised that is legal. They don't understand the nuances and see it as a black and white issue.
Same applies to Sunak's people betting on the date of the GE. Punters like us can see the angles, but it's absolutely straight forward cheating to most people. Worse, it's the kind of thing they would love to do themselves but can't because they don't have the connections and never will have.
That's really annoying. No wonder it cut through.
Spot on. Legal or illegal, to most people the insider betting is just WRONG.
Farage is a lucky guy* - his car-crash interview has been sunk by Bettinggate.
(*Though probably not the Luckyguy)
Wagergate obv
'Rishi Sunak, your candidate's a crook' doesn't have the same snap as 'Jamie Vardy, your wife's a grass' though.
I will be honest some of the paranoia about russia on here borders on mental illness.
We can send you the names of good therapists if it will help your co-workers? But if you are being forced to work shilling for Mr Bareback I'm not surprised you're all a bit paranoid.
Farage may also be trying to appeal to the antisemite corbynites who see a jewish plot to slaughter slavs in this war.
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage · 10h I am one of the few figures that have been consistent & honest about the war with Russia.
Putin was wrong to invade a sovereign nation, and the EU was wrong to expand eastward.
The sooner we realise this, the closer we will be to ending the war and delivering peace.
Of course he is. He has done it again. He has set off a s***storm infuriating fashionable opinion and getting ubiquitous publicity with all the fury, with fashionable opinions glee that he has "ratnered" himself then turning in the following days to dispair as they find it is actually making him more popular as millions are fed up with our leaders wasting our money trying to be world policeman interfering in foreign disputes, and think "anyway, at least Putin dosent allow all that trans bollocks in Russia".
“Trying to be world policemen interfering in foreign disputes”.
“A quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing”.
We were the worlds superpower then with a vast empire and vast armed forces. We are not now
How far west would Russia have to come before it became of concern to you ?
Considering that it has taken Russia 3 years, 500 000 casualties, most of their modern tanks and artillery, a considerable proportion of their airforce and navy to take a few Donbas rustbelt colliery towns, their conventional threat is not something that we really need to get worried about. Their nuclear forces may be equally decrepit and dysfunctional but I would not want to find out.
It's their subversion and destabilising effect on Western societies that is the real threat now, such as their hacking of the NHS blood results in London, and funding of far right and left groups across our societies, including Farage, Le Pen, AfD etc. We should not tolerate these "useful idiots".
Incidentally, it looks like RN in France has taken down its Putin friendly defence and foreign policy documents from its website.
I would suggest that the 'everything is broken' claims followed by a 'no changes apart from VAT on private schools' strategy also plays into the hands of those who wish to destabilise this country.
Yes, they’ve not managed the messaging very well. Hard to say it’s been disastrous given the state of the polls mind.
Blair managed to engender a feeling of excitement and optimism despite having very little concrete on offer in the manifesto. I think the difference was partly personality, partly the fact the country was feeling quite optimistic anyway as it entered a period of strong growth.
Stuff was broken in 1997, but looked eminently fixable.
The other point is social media, rolling news and cynicism. It was comparatively easy for Blair to control his image and present it positively with a relatively friendly media. The two big tabloids being onside. Talk radio a minor player. BBC and ITV the only TV networks you needed to grant significant access. Even if you did say something off piste, had an awkward moment, or let something slip there's a fair chance it wouldn't be picked up.
Compare that to today where there are umpteen media outlets wanting to do you in, sorry 'hold you to account' (if only for a good story) and anything you say in public can immediately be clipped and cast in the worst possible light. Moreover, the public has become so much more cynical about politics that I think even if a politician with Blair's presentation skills came along today, he'd be far more marmite than he was then.
No wonder Labour has calculated that minimising risk is preferable to being inspiring. Boris largely did the same - hiding away from media appearances despite it previously being his main forte - in 2019.
There's an issue in our modern political media environment that the two main parties need to be (though not sure what the Tories are doing now, are acting like a crap minor party) broadcasting - trying to seem electable to the maximal number of people, and thus are risk averse. While minor insurgent parties can narrowcast - and be exciting or 'inspiring' to a certain group, while making everyone else think they're crackers, abhorrent or both.
I will be honest some of the paranoia about russia on here borders on mental illness.
We can send you the names of good therapists if it will help your co-workers? But if you are being forced to work shilling for Mr Bareback I'm not surprised you're all a bit paranoid.
Farage may also be trying to appeal to the antisemite corbynites who see a jewish plot to slaughter slavs in this war.
If so, he's even stupider than I thought. As we've already seen, they're voting Green instead.
There is an antisemite conspiracy theory going round that the jews want their ancient homeland back not helped by the fact that Victoria Nuland is og course jewish.
Few people who do not share our passion for betting understand much about gambling. When I tell people that bookmakers won't take my bets because I am too successful they are generally genuinely surprised that is legal. They don't understand the nuances and see it as a black and white issue.
Same applies to Sunak's people betting on the date of the GE. Punters like us can see the angles, but it's absolutely straight forward cheating to most people. Worse, it's the kind of thing they would love to do themselves but can't because they don't have the connections and never will have.
That's really annoying. No wonder it cut through.
The way my friends put it is that footballers aren't allowed to bet on anything football related because of integrity reasons and the same principle should apply to politicians.
As someone who loves betting, this is clear cut I’m afraid.
Morally and ethically it’s just wrong. Legally, I don’t know (but possibly). The public won’t really care about the last bit. It’s the first part that sticks.
It’s tory sleaze … yet again. How many times these past 5 years?
Am I the only one who thinks it is fine for bookies to restrict winning punters' stakes? It doesn't seem unfair to me.
Side note - isn't betfair generally the place to get the best odds?
I'd say there is restrict and then restrict. A level of restriction is clearly necessary otherwise punters would literally bankrupt the bookies over time if we could bet unlimited amounts on their ricks.
My version would be
major market - examples: winner of top level football match, main racing cards - everyone should be able to win at least £1000 medium market - examples: bookings or corners in top level football match, televised greyhound race, atp tennis match - everyone should be able to win at least £250 minor market - non-league football match, player to get a card in top level match, novetly and entertainment betting - everyone should be able to win at least £100
The above shouldn't cost the bookies much, indeed on the major markets they should be able to use winners information to be profitable themselves a la pinnacle and the asian books.
Its a regulated licensed industry so it is up to the government, and ultimately us, to decide the level of service and freedom bookmakers should have. I don't think it right, or in the public interest, that they are able to advertise their services as betting when it is in reality betting as long as you lose to us, otherwise we won't play.
Farage was foolish to make those comments yesterday - in a basic political way. Bad timing, bad optics. His first big unforced error
He also has long links with Putin’s Russia - like working for RT even after Crimea - which raise eyebrows. I would not be at all surprised if some Russian money is making its way to Reform - but then I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin is pro-SNP either. His aim is to roil and divide the west
However I’ve now spent a month in total in wartime Ukraine. I’ve been to Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi and multiple small towns. And I’ve talked to a lot of Ukrainians and read just about all the Ukrainian history there is
The situation is a lot more nuanced than we like to admit. A fair chunk of Ukraine was founded or developed by Russia and has always been seen as quintessentially Russian - eg Odessa. Crimea likewise. Even now a lot of Ukrainians will express a liking for Russia and Russians, a cousinhood - and they speak Russian - even if they loathe and fear Putin
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from mother Russia.
Admitting this is not popular. We prefer to see everything in black and white as it is easier and morally satisfying. But the history is not black and white
All that said, Putin’s war is hideous and satanic and ultimately disastrous for Russia itself, and Putin must be stopped. He’s a menace to the rest of us and to his own people. And as long as Ukrainians want to fight him we should arm them to the teeth
Also if russia has lost 500000 men how many have ukraine lost. Assume a generous 2 russian killed for every ukrainian that still leaves 250000 ukrainians dead.
Judging by these flags I saw in Maidan square, Kyiv, last week - each one representing a dead Ukrainian - 200,000 dead Ukrainians seems a perfectly reasonable guess
From that MEE story, this photo of Wes Streeting's constituency office shows it is next door to a shop offering private tutoring of schoolchildren. There are several such shops around here. This is the modern face of private education, soon (one imagines) to be hit by 20 per cent fees alongside Eton and Winchester.
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from mother Russia.
I was in the pub last night and people weremt talking about it. Theres also some subtle admiration for Putin as a get things done strong leader.
He hasn't got Ukraine or his Economy "done", has he?
Darth Putin:
Day 849 of my 3 day war. I went to North Korea, signed a military agreement with Kim, and then threatened South Korea, one of the world’s best weapon producers, about arming Ukraine.
Mr. Leon, I've never been to Russia or Ukraine, but know a little of the history.
The Rus began more in Kyiv than Moscow, which was a Johnny-Come-Lately. It was a great shame that in the latter period of the Golden Horde the leadership position of tribute collector (I forget the technical name) shifted to Moscow. Other places, such as the somewhat democratic Novgorod, would've offered far more hope for the future than the tyrannical and domineering Moscow. They were able to take advantage of the Mongolian disintegration to cement their position as the chief power of the Rus and then to grind beneath their boot heel other powers in the area (including their role in the Partitions of Poland-Lithuania).
However, Moscow also learnt a lot from the Mongol way of doing things, which was of ruler and ruled, tribute-taker and -payer. This stands in stark contrast to most of Europe which went through a period of feudalism then gradual (or revolutionary) progress towards democracy. In Russia, the Moscow city-state writ large, the serfs remained far longer. Mechanisation was unnecessary because 'slave' labour sufficed. Democracy was undesired. The degree of control and inequality was far worse for ordinary people than the rest of Europe. And this continued through the fall of the Tsars and rise of Communism, and now with oligarchs and the Tsar in all but name.
What of Ukraine? Well, that had been, in part at least, within Poland-Lithuania before the eastern portions were gobbled up by Russia. Some also fell within the Austrian Empire (latterly Austro-Hungary). Kyiv as a city of significance long predates Moscow, which also (laughably) claims to be the Third Rome.
When it comes to the Rus, Ukraine was closer to founding Russia than Russia was to founding Ukraine.
Anyway, not my main area of interest but that's what I've gathered between a prolonged Mongolian podcast, reading and listening about the Eastern Roman Empire, and (currently) re-reading Vanished Kingdoms by Norman Davies.
Edited extra bit: btw, Lithuania took some territory which today is Ukrainian when the Golden Horde crumbled.
Off thread: as I telegraphed yesterday, with 48 hours free of parental duties, I'm off on an adventure in the North of England: I'm going to cycle across the Pennines (well, up to a point). I've never taken my bike on the train before. But I'm going to get the weekends only Manchester Victoria train to the Settle-Carlisle line train, and cycle from Ribblehead (or perhaps Kirkby Stephen - I leave my options open) and cycle to Northallerton. For what is supposed to be the nicest weekend of the year so far it is as yet disappointingly overcast. But I am optimistic that it will improve. It's all going improbably well so far, in that I left my house on time, cycled the six miles to Victoria without incident, was in time for an indulgent low-quality coffee and a snack, encountered only entirely cheerful and helpful railway staff and fully working lifts and been only mildly poisoned by diesel fumes at Victoria, and been greeted by the Ribblehead train turning up on time. Disaster almost struck when another cyclist snuck on ahead of me, taking the one remaining cycle parking space - Northern are at pains to tell you that they'll only allow two bikes on the train, and mine was the third, but the guard didn't seem to mind - and the train has been bustling; everyone cheerful and excited for their days out, and everyone who has sat opposite me has been full of conversation. And now the sun has come out. Almost.
Settle-Carlisle is one of the most beautiful train journeys in the world. Enjoy!
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from mother Russia.
Fucking hell, just listen to yourself mate.
No, no, no, please don't. We don't want more conversations like this:
I have not been closely following the Mercer stuff, what's the consensus, is he toast over this?
He was already toast, this is just the charcoal on top.
Surprised to see you describe yourself as centre-right. I had you on the left of the spectrum.
I don't find that a useful distinction.
I am dry as dust on financial and economic policy, Internationalist on foreign and environmental policy, liberal on social and cultural issues, though actually fairly socially conventional myself, being a church going family man.
It's why I supported the Coalition government 2010-2015, and find Ed Davey closest to my political views.
I couldn't run for office, I don't think there is a party that fits.
Fair enough, I was just surprised that you yourself categorised yourself as centre-right.
On economics I am.
You seem to favour much greater public spending on health (and education?) though. So not clearly so on that either?
I am not sure that I have advocated those things. Indeed I have suggested that Universities should be privatised and funding left to the market and commercial lenders.
My remedy for the NHS is not particularly based on increased state funding, and hasn't really changed from my first ever PB header:
I think my suggestion of individual Health and Social Care Accounts analogous to a SIPP is the way to go. Health Insurers are too narrow in their exclusions.
Farage was foolish to make those comments yesterday - in a basic political way. Bad timing, bad optics. His first big unforced error
He also has long links with Putin’s Russia - like working for RT even after Crimea - which raise eyebrows. I would not be at all surprised if some Russian money is making its way to Reform - but then I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin is pro-SNP either. His aim is to roil and divide the west
However I’ve now spent a month in total in wartime Ukraine. I’ve been to Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi and multiple small towns. And I’ve talked to a lot of Ukrainians and read just about all the Ukrainian history there is
The situation is a lot more nuanced than we like to admit. A fair chunk of Ukraine was founded or developed by Russia and has always been seen as quintessentially Russian - eg Odessa. Crimea likewise. Even now a lot of Ukrainians will express a liking for Russia and Russians, a cousinhood - and they speak Russian - even if they loathe and fear Putin
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from mother Russia.
Admitting this is not popular. We prefer to see everything in black and white as it is easier and morally satisfying. But the history is not black and white
All that said, Putin’s war is hideous and satanic and ultimately disastrous for Russia itself, and Putin must be stopped. He’s a menace to the rest of us and to his own people. And as long as Ukrainians want to fight him we should arm them to the teeth
Also if russia has lost 500000 men how many have ukraine lost. Assume a generous 2 russian killed for every ukrainian that still leaves 250000 ukrainians dead.
Judging by these flags I saw in Maidan square, Kyiv, last week - each one representing a dead Ukrainian - 200,000 dead Ukrainians seems a perfectly reasonable guess
I suggest that this is fairly patent BS.
No one known to me is suggesting "500k Russians killed".
If we are talking about the stats from the Ukraine MOD that have proven to be generally reliable, afaik they cover casualties knocked out of the fight, rather than just killed.
So would include eg amputees aka in Russian WW2 terminology "samovars".
Oops, I accidentally invaded my neighbour because I was scared of a military bloc they weren't in.
Russians do not see Ukraine as a neighbour in the way you are using the word. They see about half of Ukraine as fundamentally - culturally, linguistically, historically - a part of Russia. They founded and built Odessa. They developed Crimea - it is full of tsarist mansions
Westerners arrogantly pontificating about the war without knowing the history are not helping
It’s a shame @Dura_Ace has disappeared (I do hope he’s not lying in some hospital in Kharkiv) - he might be a mad bastard but he knows his onions in this matter
I have not been closely following the Mercer stuff, what's the consensus, is he toast over this?
He was already toast, this is just the charcoal on top.
Surprised to see you describe yourself as centre-right. I had you on the left of the spectrum.
I don't find that a useful distinction.
I am dry as dust on financial and economic policy, Internationalist on foreign and environmental policy, liberal on social and cultural issues, though actually fairly socially conventional myself, being a church going family man.
It's why I supported the Coalition government 2010-2015, and find Ed Davey closest to my political views.
I couldn't run for office, I don't think there is a party that fits.
Ditto, which makes me an Orange Booker I think. Very pro free enterprise and freedom of the individual, but want everyone to have an equally good opportunity to health care and education and want the state to protect against abuse in the free market. Very, very socially liberal, although like you I lead a fairly conventional life.
There are different names you can give it- Orange Booker, Cameroon, even One Nation Thatcherite (that sort of works... wets who collaborated with the Great She Elephant). It's kind of where Major was as well.
Yes, have a bias towards lower taxes not higher, but not if the price is indecently threadbare public services and realm. And definitely not if it's not sustainable for the generations to follow.
Farage was foolish to make those comments yesterday - in a basic political way. Bad timing, bad optics. His first big unforced error
He also has long links with Putin’s Russia - like working for RT even after Crimea - which raise eyebrows. I would not be at all surprised if some Russian money is making its way to Reform - but then I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin is pro-SNP either. His aim is to roil and divide the west
However I’ve now spent a month in total in wartime Ukraine. I’ve been to Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi and multiple small towns. And I’ve talked to a lot of Ukrainians and read just about all the Ukrainian history there is
The situation is a lot more nuanced than we like to admit. A fair chunk of Ukraine was founded or developed by Russia and has always been seen as quintessentially Russian - eg Odessa. Crimea likewise. Even now a lot of Ukrainians will express a liking for Russia and Russians, a cousinhood - and they speak Russian - even if they loathe and fear Putin
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from mother Russia.
Admitting this is not popular. We prefer to see everything in black and white as it is easier and morally satisfying. But the history is not black and white
All that said, Putin’s war is hideous and satanic and ultimately disastrous for Russia itself, and Putin must be stopped. He’s a menace to the rest of us and to his own people. And as long as Ukrainians want to fight him we should arm them to the teeth
Also if russia has lost 500000 men how many have ukraine lost. Assume a generous 2 russian killed for every ukrainian that still leaves 250000 ukrainians dead.
Judging by these flags I saw in Maidan square, Kyiv, last week - each one representing a dead Ukrainian - 200,000 dead Ukrainians seems a perfectly reasonable guess
I suggest that this is fairly patent BS.
No one known to me is suggesting "500k Russians killed".
If we are talking about the stats from the Ukraine MOD that have proven to be generally reliable, afaik they cover casualties knocked out of the fight, rather than just killed.
So would include eg amputees aka in Russian WW2 terminology "samovars".
I’m sorry. Are you arguing with what I saw with my own eyes? Tens of thousands of flags?
Farage was foolish to make those comments yesterday - in a basic political way. Bad timing, bad optics. His first big unforced error
He also has long links with Putin’s Russia - like working for RT even after Crimea - which raise eyebrows. I would not be at all surprised if some Russian money is making its way to Reform - but then I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin is pro-SNP either. His aim is to roil and divide the west
However I’ve now spent a month in total in wartime Ukraine. I’ve been to Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi and multiple small towns. And I’ve talked to a lot of Ukrainians and read just about all the Ukrainian history there is
The situation is a lot more nuanced than we like to admit. A fair chunk of Ukraine was founded or developed by Russia and has always been seen as quintessentially Russian - eg Odessa. Crimea likewise. Even now a lot of Ukrainians will express a liking for Russia and Russians, a cousinhood - and they speak Russian - even if they loathe and fear Putin
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from mother Russia.
Admitting this is not popular. We prefer to see everything in black and white as it is easier and morally satisfying. But the history is not black and white
All that said, Putin’s war is hideous and satanic and ultimately disastrous for Russia itself, and Putin must be stopped. He’s a menace to the rest of us and to his own people. And as long as Ukrainians want to fight him we should arm them to the teeth
Also if russia has lost 500000 men how many have ukraine lost. Assume a generous 2 russian killed for every ukrainian that still leaves 250000 ukrainians dead.
500 000 major casualties, not all dead, but probably about the right ballpark.
The only one who can stop the slaughter is the Aggressor. Ukraine has no ambitions beyond its borders.
Farage was foolish to make those comments yesterday - in a basic political way. Bad timing, bad optics. His first big unforced error
He also has long links with Putin’s Russia - like working for RT even after Crimea - which raise eyebrows. I would not be at all surprised if some Russian money is making its way to Reform - but then I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin is pro-SNP either. His aim is to roil and divide the west
However I’ve now spent a month in total in wartime Ukraine. I’ve been to Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi and multiple small towns. And I’ve talked to a lot of Ukrainians and read just about all the Ukrainian history there is
The situation is a lot more nuanced than we like to admit. A fair chunk of Ukraine was founded or developed by Russia and has always been seen as quintessentially Russian - eg Odessa. Crimea likewise. Even now a lot of Ukrainians will express a liking for Russia and Russians, a cousinhood - and they speak Russian - even if they loathe and fear Putin
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from mother Russia.
Admitting this is not popular. We prefer to see everything in black and white as it is easier and morally satisfying. But the history is not black and white
All that said, Putin’s war is hideous and satanic and ultimately disastrous for Russia itself, and Putin must be stopped. He’s a menace to the rest of us and to his own people. And as long as Ukrainians want to fight him we should arm them to the teeth
Why do you describe the EU and NATO expansions as 'aggressive' ?
Take a look at what neorealist international relations theorists like John Mearsheimer have been saying, quite consistently, on the topic, over the last decade or more. His view is that we have regional hegemons that seek to control the smaller countries in their immediate orbit. The US does this. Iran does this. It's not a value judgement, but rather a statement of objective reality of international relations viewed through a neorealist lens. Under that view, one hegemon expanding as far as the other's borders would be seen as aggressive by the other power.
That doesn't mean that Putin isn't a fascist dictator, nor, as Leon puts it, does it mean we shouldn't arm the Ukrainians to the teeth if they want to fight him. We absolutely should. The Western democratic system is objectively better than Putinist fascism, and I see no reason why we have to let Putin have Ukraine just because he sees it as his back yard. Hitler thought the same thing about his immediate neighbours.
The total value of the minerals in Ukraines are estimated to be from 10 to 14.8 trillion depending on who you believe with more than 70.0% concentrated in Donetsk, Luhansk and Dnipro. Apart from Oil and gas,coal, Titanium, Lithium. It has 5% of the earths mineral resources. Iron Ore , Copper, Nickel, The list is endless and this is the main reason Russia has the interest in the country. Not only the defense argument we are given.
He simply says that Mitchell is one of the good guys. And he’s right.
Yep. It is an excellent video by Geldoff. As he doesn't know where Sutton Coldfield is he clearly isn't voting for him as he isn't a constituent, but clearly likes the guy and thinks he is very effective, which I agree with also.
He also mentions he has made his mind up as to how to vote, but didn't say. I agree I don't think you can deduce he is going to vote Tory at all. In fact I suspect the opposite. It is just that he particularly likes a particular Tory who is both a friend and in his opinion very effective.
However I’ve now spent a month in total in wartime Ukraine. I’ve been to Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi and multiple small towns. And I’ve talked to a lot of Ukrainians and read just about all the Ukrainian history there is
You have sat in a few expensive hotels, ogling the girls, taking safe taxis from one ka-ching hotel to the next before nipping out.
Like all your travel it's totally phoney. You don't have the first clue what it means to spend time among local people. You're too busy letching, getting pissed, doing drugs and dining in plushy restaurants. Like a modern day Alan Whicker only entirely lacking the panache.
Mr. Leon, I've never been to Russia or Ukraine, but know a little of the history.
The Rus began more in Kyiv than Moscow, which was a Johnny-Come-Lately. It was a great shame that in the latter period of the Golden Horde the leadership position of tribute collector (I forget the technical name) shifted to Moscow. Other places, such as the somewhat democratic Novgorod, would've offered far more hope for the future than the tyrannical and domineering Moscow. They were able to take advantage of the Mongolian disintegration to cement their position as the chief power of the Rus and then to grind beneath their boot heel other powers in the area (including their role in the Partitions of Poland-Lithuania).
However, Moscow also learnt a lot from the Mongol way of doing things, which was of ruler and ruled, tribute-taker and -payer. This stands in stark contrast to most of Europe which went through a period of feudalism then gradual (or revolutionary) progress towards democracy. In Russia, the Moscow city-state writ large, the serfs remained far longer. Mechanisation was unnecessary because 'slave' labour sufficed. Democracy was undesired. The degree of control and inequality was far worse for ordinary people than the rest of Europe. And this continued through the fall of the Tsars and rise of Communism, and now with oligarchs and the Tsar in all but name.
What of Ukraine? Well, that had been, in part at least, within Poland-Lithuania before the eastern portions were gobbled up by Russia. Some also fell within the Austrian Empire (latterly Austro-Hungary). Kyiv as a city of significance long predates Moscow, which also (laughably) claims to be the Third Rome.
When it comes to the Rus, Ukraine was closer to founding Russia than Russia was to founding Ukraine.
Anyway, not my main area of interest but that's what I've gathered between a prolonged Mongolian podcast, reading and listening about the Eastern Roman Empire, and (currently) re-reading Vanished Kingdoms by Norman Davies.
Edited extra bit: btw, Lithuania took some territory which today is Ukrainian when the Golden Horde crumbled.
Yes. It is fantastically complex. There are also religious divisions and overlaps - Russian and Ukrainian orthodoxy
And yes it is very arguable that Kyivan rus is the cradle of Russia itself. The cave church on the Dniester! St Sophia’s cathedral. But that is another reason why many Russians see swathes of ukraine as rightfully part of Russia, indeed intrinsically Russian, it’s where Russia was born and became Christian
We can argue that they are misguided (it’s almost impossible to adjudicate, we are talking about emotions) but that is the perception. Ukraine and Russia are brothers. Little Russia and big Russia
However I’ve now spent a month in total in wartime Ukraine. I’ve been to Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi and multiple small towns. And I’ve talked to a lot of Ukrainians and read just about all the Ukrainian history there is
You have sat in a few expensive hotels, ogling the girls, taking safe taxis from one ka-ching hotel to the next before nipping out.
Like all your travel it's totally phoney. You don't have the first clue what it means to spend time among local people. You're too busy letching, getting pissed, doing drugs and dining in plushy restaurants. Like a modern day Alan Whicker only entirely lacking the panache.
Mr. Leon, I've never been to Russia or Ukraine, but know a little of the history.
The Rus began more in Kyiv than Moscow, which was a Johnny-Come-Lately. It was a great shame that in the latter period of the Golden Horde the leadership position of tribute collector (I forget the technical name) shifted to Moscow. Other places, such as the somewhat democratic Novgorod, would've offered far more hope for the future than the tyrannical and domineering Moscow. They were able to take advantage of the Mongolian disintegration to cement their position as the chief power of the Rus and then to grind beneath their boot heel other powers in the area (including their role in the Partitions of Poland-Lithuania).
However, Moscow also learnt a lot from the Mongol way of doing things, which was of ruler and ruled, tribute-taker and -payer. This stands in stark contrast to most of Europe which went through a period of feudalism then gradual (or revolutionary) progress towards democracy. In Russia, the Moscow city-state writ large, the serfs remained far longer. Mechanisation was unnecessary because 'slave' labour sufficed. Democracy was undesired. The degree of control and inequality was far worse for ordinary people than the rest of Europe. And this continued through the fall of the Tsars and rise of Communism, and now with oligarchs and the Tsar in all but name.
What of Ukraine? Well, that had been, in part at least, within Poland-Lithuania before the eastern portions were gobbled up by Russia. Some also fell within the Austrian Empire (latterly Austro-Hungary). Kyiv as a city of significance long predates Moscow, which also (laughably) claims to be the Third Rome.
When it comes to the Rus, Ukraine was closer to founding Russia than Russia was to founding Ukraine.
Anyway, not my main area of interest but that's what I've gathered between a prolonged Mongolian podcast, reading and listening about the Eastern Roman Empire, and (currently) re-reading Vanished Kingdoms by Norman Davies.
Edited extra bit: btw, Lithuania took some territory which today is Ukrainian when the Golden Horde crumbled.
Very much the opinion I’d formed of the historical situation. Kyiv was, IIRC, also brought to prominence by ‘Vikings’ who had come to the area from what we now call Sweden on their way to Constantinople.
It assumes that a criminal offence has been committed, which is questionable.
I’d have thought you could make a pretty strong case that anyone who was directly involved in the election decision committed a criminal offence if they then bet on it before the announcement.
But far less certain for anyone else.
Criminal law doesn’t appear particularly well defined in this area, FWIW.
The clever wheeze here is if they were acting individually they are probably off the hook BUT if you can find WhatsApps between two or more of them saying Let's have a cheeky punt on July you can charge with common law conspiracy to defraud and you are off to the races.
The Gambling Act does not require collusion for an offence of cheating to have occurred.
The common law offence of conspiracy to defraud, on the other hand, does. And makes it easier to secure a conviction than under the Gambling Act. Which was my point. So glad we have been able to clarify that.
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from mother Russia.
Fucking hell, just listen to yourself mate.
Youve done to Leon exactly what the BBC and sundry Tory supporting politicians are doing with Nargle Fargle.
Quoting out of context to make him seem a Putin Lickspittle.
What part of he also said the following did you miss?
"All that said, Putin’s war is hideous and satanic and ultimately disastrous for Russia itself, and Putin must be stopped. He’s a menace to the rest of us and to his own people. And as long as Ukrainians want to fight him we should arm them to the teeth"
Oops, I accidentally invaded my neighbour because I was scared of a military bloc they weren't in.
Russians do not see Ukraine as a neighbour in the way you are using the word. They see about half of Ukraine as fundamentally - culturally, linguistically, historically - a part of Russia. They founded and built Odessa. They developed Crimea - it is full of tsarist mansions
Westerners arrogantly pontificating about the war without knowing the history are not helping
It’s a shame @Dura_Ace has disappeared (I do hope he’s not lying in some hospital in Kharkiv) - he might be a mad bastard but he knows his onions in this matter
That’s how the British originally thought of Ireland though, and before that the USA. Georgian Dublin was a British city. So were Boston and Philadelphia.
Nobody doubts Russia feels like that, but I’m not sure what the sequitur is.
If nothing else it puts paid to the idea this is some kind of defensive war provoked by NATO expansion. It’s a war of irredentism.
The total value of the minerals in Ukraines are estimated to be from 10 to 14.8 trillion depending on who you believe with more than 70.0% concentrated in Donetsk, Luhansk and Dnipro. Apart from Oil and gas,coal, Titanium, Lithium. It has 5% of the earths mineral resources. Iron Ore , Copper, Nickel, The list is endless and this is the main reason Russia has the interest in the country. Not only the defense argument we are given.
Also the people. Russia is in a demographic crisis and if Putin can add 20 million white Christian Slavic Ukrainians - who speak Russian anyway - to the Russian empire then that is a massive win - there’s no problem with assimilation etc etc
The war is about stealing natural resources. Exactly what was done in the Crimean Crisis in 2014. Oil and Gas grab that one and not paying any more money for the Black sea fleet that was moored up there.
Oops, I accidentally invaded my neighbour because I was scared of a military bloc they weren't in.
Russians do not see Ukraine as a neighbour in the way you are using the word. They see about half of Ukraine as fundamentally - culturally, linguistically, historically - a part of Russia. They founded and built Odessa. They developed Crimea - it is full of tsarist mansions
Westerners arrogantly pontificating about the war without knowing the history are not helping
It’s a shame @Dura_Ace has disappeared (I do hope he’s not lying in some hospital in Kharkiv) - he might be a mad bastard but he knows his onions in this matter
That’s how the British originally thought of Ireland though, and before that the USA. Georgian Dublin was a British city. So were Boston and Philadelphia.
Nobody doubts Russia feels like that, but I’m not sure what the sequitur is.
If nothing else it puts paid to the idea this is some kind of defensive war provoked by NATO expansion. It’s a war of irredentism.
It’s a war of reconquest maybe
I made the Ireland comparison a few weeks ago and it’s pretty good but it doesn’t quite capture the spiritual link between Ukraine and Russia (as Russians see it) - and the way Russia was birthed in Kyivan rus
Imagine if English was first spoken in Dublin, and the English reformation was an originally Irish affair, and Ireland was physically part of the island of Britain, then you’d be closer
But there is no perfect analogy and none of this exculpates Putin - he’s a horrible murderous tyrant - and it doesn’t exonerate Farage - he made stupid remarks which, even if true in some narrow way, were badly timed and clumsily phrased and he might have blown up reform just as they were about to overtake the Tories. Dumb move
I have not been closely following the Mercer stuff, what's the consensus, is he toast over this?
He was already toast, this is just the charcoal on top.
Surprised to see you describe yourself as centre-right. I had you on the left of the spectrum.
I don't find that a useful distinction.
I am dry as dust on financial and economic policy, Internationalist on foreign and environmental policy, liberal on social and cultural issues, though actually fairly socially conventional myself, being a church going family man.
It's why I supported the Coalition government 2010-2015, and find Ed Davey closest to my political views.
I couldn't run for office, I don't think there is a party that fits.
Ditto, which makes me an Orange Booker I think. Very pro free enterprise and freedom of the individual, but want everyone to have an equally good opportunity to health care and education and want the state to protect against abuse in the free market. Very, very socially liberal, although like you I lead a fairly conventional life.
That description misses out any position on the role of the state in industrial policy. That, for me, is the biggest lacuna in UK economic policy over the last four decades.
The total value of the minerals in Ukraines are estimated to be from 10 to 14.8 trillion depending on who you believe with more than 70.0% concentrated in Donetsk, Luhansk and Dnipro. Apart from Oil and gas,coal, Titanium, Lithium. It has 5% of the earths mineral resources. Iron Ore , Copper, Nickel, The list is endless and this is the main reason Russia has the interest in the country. Not only the defense argument we are given.
Also the people. Russia is in a demographic crisis and if Putin can add 20 million white Christian Slavic Ukrainians - who speak Russian anyway - to the Russian empire then that is a massive win - there’s no problem with assimilation etc etc
Well, it might be (probably is) a factor in what passes for Putin's thought processes, but rather less than a third of Ukrainians are Russian speaking so it won't even be close to 20 million.
The total value of the minerals in Ukraines are estimated to be from 10 to 14.8 trillion depending on who you believe with more than 70.0% concentrated in Donetsk, Luhansk and Dnipro. Apart from Oil and gas,coal, Titanium, Lithium. It has 5% of the earths mineral resources. Iron Ore , Copper, Nickel, The list is endless and this is the main reason Russia has the interest in the country. Not only the defense argument we are given.
Also the people. Russia is in a demographic crisis and if Putin can add 20 million white Christian Slavic Ukrainians - who speak Russian anyway - to the Russian empire then that is a massive win - there’s no problem with assimilation etc etc
Well, it might be (probably is) a factor in what passes for Putin's thought processes, but rather less than a third of Ukrainians are Russian speaking so it won't even be close to 20 million.
Many of the Russian speakers in Ukraine are even more hostile to Putin´s Russia than everyone else in Ukraine: not least because they have been the biggest victims of the war. It will be like Northern Ireland, even if the Russians were able to occupy the territory.
The war is about stealing natural resources. Exactly what was done in the Crimean Crisis in 2014. Oil and Gas grab that one and not paying any more money for the Black sea fleet that was moored up there.
World War 1 and 2 were primarily about Germany getting their hands on said resources. And if you think this didn't enter the heads of Nuland and the EU when they deposed a democratically elected government in an illegal coup in 2014 for signing an "association" agreement with Russia and replaced it with one that signed an association agreement with the EU that resulted in the end of free trade between Ukraine and Russia and Tariffs being applied, then I have a bridge to sell you.
The war is about stealing natural resources. Exactly what was done in the Crimean Crisis in 2014. Oil and Gas grab that one and not paying any more money for the Black sea fleet that was moored up there.
Leon. Dumb move. Yes. Agreed. Typical Farage though and he will get worse. He craves attention and will get more out of his depth as he gets mentally whacked out, he will loose control again and again.
Oops, I accidentally invaded my neighbour because I was scared of a military bloc they weren't in.
Russians do not see Ukraine as a neighbour in the way you are using the word. They see about half of Ukraine as fundamentally - culturally, linguistically, historically - a part of Russia. They founded and built Odessa. They developed Crimea - it is full of tsarist mansions
Westerners arrogantly pontificating about the war without knowing the history are not helping
It’s a shame @Dura_Ace has disappeared (I do hope he’s not lying in some hospital in Kharkiv) - he might be a mad bastard but he knows his onions in this matter
That’s how the British originally thought of Ireland though, and before that the USA. Georgian Dublin was a British city. So were Boston and Philadelphia.
Nobody doubts Russia feels like that, but I’m not sure what the sequitur is.
If nothing else it puts paid to the idea this is some kind of defensive war provoked by NATO expansion. It’s a war of irredentism.
It’s a war of reconquest maybe
I made the Ireland comparison a few weeks ago and it’s pretty good but it doesn’t quite capture the spiritual link between Ukraine and Russia (as Russians see it) - and the way Russia was birthed in Kyivan rus
Imagine if English was first spoken in Dublin, and the English reformation was an originally Irish affair, and Ireland was physically part of the island of Britain, then you’d be closer
But there is no perfect analogy and none of this exculpates Putin - he’s a horrible murderous tyrant - and it doesn’t exonerate Farage - he made stupid remarks which, even if true in some narrow way, were badly timed and clumsily phrased and he might have blown up reform just as they were about to overtake the Tories. Dumb move
NF's comments were not an un-called for intervention - he was asked to justify his previous comments on the matter and did so. It's in line with previous unapologetic statements (regarding candidates etc.), and I think by and large it is a good strategy to go on the attack rather than being beaten into apologies, albeit not without risk. Apologies and equivocations will never be enough for Reform's opponents - they will use any sign of retreat to eat the party up.
Could he have phrased it better? Possibly, but by and large he has placed himself just on the side of 'what he's saying makes sense' bloke in the pub vibes.
Farage was foolish to make those comments yesterday - in a basic political way. Bad timing, bad optics. His first big unforced error
He also has long links with Putin’s Russia - like working for RT even after Crimea - which raise eyebrows. I would not be at all surprised if some Russian money is making its way to Reform - but then I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin is pro-SNP either. His aim is to roil and divide the west
However I’ve now spent a month in total in wartime Ukraine. I’ve been to Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi and multiple small towns. And I’ve talked to a lot of Ukrainians and read just about all the Ukrainian history there is
The situation is a lot more nuanced than we like to admit. A fair chunk of Ukraine was founded or developed by Russia and has always been seen as quintessentially Russian - eg Odessa. Crimea likewise. Even now a lot of Ukrainians will express a liking for Russia and Russians, a cousinhood - and they speak Russian - even if they loathe and fear Putin
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from mother Russia.
Admitting this is not popular. We prefer to see everything in black and white as it is easier and morally satisfying. But the history is not black and white
All that said, Putin’s war is hideous and satanic and ultimately disastrous for Russia itself, and Putin must be stopped. He’s a menace to the rest of us and to his own people. And as long as Ukrainians want to fight him we should arm them to the teeth
Why do you describe the EU and NATO expansions as 'aggressive' ?
Take a look at what neorealist international relations theorists like John Mearsheimer have been saying, quite consistently, on the topic, over the last decade or more. His view is that we have regional hegemons that seek to control the smaller countries in their immediate orbit. The US does this. Iran does this. It's not a value judgement, but rather a statement of objective reality of international relations viewed through a neorealist lens. Under that view, one hegemon expanding as far as the other's borders would be seen as aggressive by the other power.
That doesn't mean that Putin isn't a fascist dictator, nor, as Leon puts it, does it mean we shouldn't arm the Ukrainians to the teeth if they want to fight him. We absolutely should. The Western democratic system is objectively better than Putinist fascism, and I see no reason why we have to let Putin have Ukraine just because he sees it as his back yard. Hitler thought the same thing about his immediate neighbours.
When you have a clash of ideologies, even the existence of the "other side" is a provocation. This is what C20th was all about: rival ideological systems, broadly liberalism, fascism, and communism, trying to do away with one another because the legitimacy conferred upon states depended on the material well-being of the population. Very, very broadly, liberalism is about freedom, fascism is about hierarchy, and communism is about equality. Any success exhibited by rival systems represented a weakening of the powerbase of your system. So Cuban medicine is an affront to America, Nazi military might was an affront to the Soviet Union, and American technological capacity was an affront to both.
Liberalism and consent-based international organisations are fatal to the legitimacy of Putin's regime and that's why he seeks to undermine them. Hence sowing discord within Western countries to "prove" that democracy is sclerotic and that we'd be "better off" with a strongman leader like him. Hence Russian disinformation attacking the EU, NATO. Hence Russia cosying up to other countries "threatened" by liberal internationalism: China, North Korea. Hence Russia being very keen on amplifying divisive politicians in the West who will weaken those institutions or the countries themselves, e.g. Trump, AfD.
We have provoked Putin: by existing. By standing up for the freedom of countries like Romania and Estonia to choose their own future. The fact that they have chosen "us" is entirely predictable because our system is objectively better. The ideology of freedom has rolled right up to Russia's border because it's been invited in. We can't avoid being provocative without ceasing to exist. We annoyed the Nazis and we annoyed the communists. And we'll continue to annoy Russia until it, or we, change. If we deny freedom to countries near Russia who seek it out, that would be us changing. I propose we don't do that, but continue to be ourselves. We will probably win, again.
The total value of the minerals in Ukraines are estimated to be from 10 to 14.8 trillion depending on who you believe with more than 70.0% concentrated in Donetsk, Luhansk and Dnipro. Apart from Oil and gas,coal, Titanium, Lithium. It has 5% of the earths mineral resources. Iron Ore , Copper, Nickel, The list is endless and this is the main reason Russia has the interest in the country. Not only the defense argument we are given.
Also the people. Russia is in a demographic crisis and if Putin can add 20 million white Christian Slavic Ukrainians - who speak Russian anyway - to the Russian empire then that is a massive win - there’s no problem with assimilation etc etc
Well, it might be (probably is) a factor in what passes for Putin's thought processes, but rather less than a third of Ukrainians are Russian speaking so it won't even be close to 20 million.
I’m dubious of that language statistic. I’m not dismissing it but nearly all the Ukrainians I’ve met - in Ukraine - seem to speak Russian in addition to Ukrainian. They are bilingual. And you hear it everywhere - except places like lviv but they have a very different history - Lviv was part of austro-hungary
Maybe a third of Ukrainians speak Russian as their “main language”. That would make more sense
Sir Bradley Wiggins’s fall from cycling superstar to sofa surfer
The financial troubles of the Olympic gold medallist and Britain’s first Tour de France winner have left him homeless and bankrupt
Sitting on a gold throne after winning a fourth Olympic gold, Sir Bradley Wiggins was at the peak of a glittering career that catalysed a British cycling revolution.
He was the first Briton to win the gruelling Tour de France, won five Olympic gold medals and built up an estimated net worth of £13 million.
But little more than ten years on from London 2012, the hero affectionately dubbed “Sir Wiggo” has been left bankrupt and in effect homeless, “sofa surfing” between family and friends.
His marriage has collapsed, his £975,000 family home has been repossessed and the Mallorca villa he once called a “home from home” is believed to have been lost in the scramble to cover his debts.
He was even said to have spent some time living in a VW camper van, which was lent to him in return for social media posts and was later said to have been found “trashed” in a car park.
A house he rented for six months in the Lancashire resort town of Lytham St Annes was allegedly left looking like a “dosshouse” with cigarette butts on the floor, according to a source.
The bankruptcy means he may have to sell his Olympic medals to repay the debts. It is a sad downfall for a sporting hero who helped turn cycling from a niche sport into a national obsession. Wiggins is said to blame “the ‘professional negligence’ of others” and is considering legal action.
I'm sure the Olympic fraternity and the cycle fraternity will get together to make sure he's OK. Unfortunately it's something all too common with sportsmen who find it's all over and they aren't yet 40. The applause and adulation for some is difficult to live without
Farage was foolish to make those comments yesterday - in a basic political way. Bad timing, bad optics. His first big unforced error
He also has long links with Putin’s Russia - like working for RT even after Crimea - which raise eyebrows. I would not be at all surprised if some Russian money is making its way to Reform - but then I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin is pro-SNP either. His aim is to roil and divide the west
However I’ve now spent a month in total in wartime Ukraine. I’ve been to Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi and multiple small towns. And I’ve talked to a lot of Ukrainians and read just about all the Ukrainian history there is
The situation is a lot more nuanced than we like to admit. A fair chunk of Ukraine was founded or developed by Russia and has always been seen as quintessentially Russian - eg Odessa. Crimea likewise. Even now a lot of Ukrainians will express a liking for Russia and Russians, a cousinhood - and they speak Russian - even if they loathe and fear Putin
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from mother Russia.
Admitting this is not popular.
It's also largely balls, as it minimises Ukraine's wish to join the west.
The total value of the minerals in Ukraines are estimated to be from 10 to 14.8 trillion depending on who you believe with more than 70.0% concentrated in Donetsk, Luhansk and Dnipro. Apart from Oil and gas,coal, Titanium, Lithium. It has 5% of the earths mineral resources. Iron Ore , Copper, Nickel, The list is endless and this is the main reason Russia has the interest in the country. Not only the defense argument we are given.
Also the people. Russia is in a demographic crisis and if Putin can add 20 million white Christian Slavic Ukrainians - who speak Russian anyway - to the Russian empire then that is a massive win - there’s no problem with assimilation etc etc
Well, it might be (probably is) a factor in what passes for Putin's thought processes, but rather less than a third of Ukrainians are Russian speaking so it won't even be close to 20 million.
I’m dubious of that language statistic. I’m not dismissing it but nearly all the Ukrainians I’ve met - in Ukraine - seem to speak Russian in addition to Ukrainian. They are bilingual. And you hear it everywhere - except places like lviv but they have a very different history - Lviv was part of austro-hungary
Maybe a third of Ukrainians speak Russian as their “main language”. That would make more sense
Every Welsh person I've ever met - and I mean every one over the age of six - speaks English just as fluently as they do Welsh. That does not make them English.
Comments
Which means that mere MILLIONS are two orders of magnitude down on the monetary scale.
And seemingly trivial at government level but not to ordinary people who think in THOUSANDS.
Can't wait to see him going full Tonto on Nigel Fucking Farage...
It makes a change from left wing anti-semitism I suppose.
I think the Times account is very much the tabloid version.
If I had to identify Sir Bradley's mistakes it would be around poor advice and not insulating his personal affairs from his business affairs - so the collapse of the latter hit the former. He did some quite unusual things - including starting his own professional team, and I don't know how these were set up.
The closest comparison I think I can find is F1 drivers who started their own teams, of which there are quite a number.
And also Chris Boardman is a part parallel, who won TDF stages, Olympic and world gold medals, and world records, about 10 years earlier, and went into business, and now has had a career as an effective administrator in the public sector.
I think one saving grace for Wiggo may be if his wife owns half of various assets, which would be a base for his separated family.
Four discordant thoughts before the day overtakes me:
1) The polls haven't moved too much since the election was called - the Labour lead remains in the low 20s (the odd outlier notwithstanding). Both they and the Conservatives have drifted lower at the expense of Reform but no seismic shifts as yet (the odd outlier poll notwithstanding). I think a lot of people haven't engaged with the election yet and won't until the final 72 hours - that explains the Conservative social media blitz which will start on July 1st.
2) SHOULDHAVEBEENARING each way for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Ascot this afternoon.
3) Farage is wrong on Ukraine but there is a point about the actions of the west in the immediate aftermath of the sudden and probably unexpected collapse of the Warsaw Pact in 1989. Did we get it wrong then as we did in 1918-19? Not sure - Thatcher had a point of sorts but German reunification was unstoppable. The impacts of those events are still reverberating around Europe.
4) It's going to be much tougher for the bookmakers in the next few years. There is an anti-gambling sentiment building and there is going to be some pain. The horse racing specialist channels are talking about pulling out of Ireland if bookmaker advertising is restricted - I suspect a new Labour Government will try something similar here.
By now, anyone who thinks Russia was NOT provoked by Biden, Zelensky and Nato over at least 8 years is being wilfully ignorant.
Think harder.
Do your research..
Don't parrot usa propaganda.
Nigel Farage claims the West 'provoked' Russia invasion of Ukraine https://dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13555165/Nigel-Farage-Ukraine-war-Reform-BBC-NATO-EU-provoked-Vladimir-Putin-invasion.html?ito=native_share_article-nativemenubutton
6:37 PM · Jun 21, 2024
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330.4K
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https://x.com/beverleyturner/status/1804207137607794739
Anyway, if you are bona fide, welcome. I merely note that the record on this forum for calling it right about what does and does not cut through, even from seasoned posters, is not a good one. Good luck with yours!
Farage was foolish to make those comments yesterday - in a basic political way. Bad timing, bad optics. His first big unforced error
He also has long links with Putin’s Russia - like working for RT even after Crimea - which raise eyebrows. I would not be at all surprised if some Russian money is making its way to Reform - but then I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin is pro-SNP either. His aim is to roil and divide the west
However I’ve now spent a month in total in wartime Ukraine. I’ve been to Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, Chernivtsi and multiple small towns. And I’ve talked to a lot of Ukrainians and read just about all the Ukrainian history there is
The situation is a lot more nuanced than we like to admit. A fair chunk of Ukraine was founded or developed by Russia and has always been seen as quintessentially Russian - eg Odessa. Crimea
likewise. Even now a lot of Ukrainians will express a liking for Russia and Russians, a cousinhood - and they speak Russian - even if they loathe and fear Putin
The west was misguided in its fairly aggressive expansions - by NATO and the EU - and the apparent attempt to pull Ukraine permanently into a western orbit and thereby forever estranged from
mother Russia.
Admitting this is not popular. We prefer to see everything in black and white as it is easier and morally satisfying. But the history is not black and white
All that said, Putin’s war is hideous and satanic and ultimately disastrous for Russia itself, and Putin
must be stopped. He’s a menace to the rest of us and to his own people. And as long as Ukrainians want to fight him we should arm them to the teeth
lot of people on both sides in the Russia-Ukraine controversy know little or nothing about the subject. The prominent America Russia hawk Robert Kagan, by contrast, understands it very well:
https://x.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1804427375364456572
France, Germany, Netherlands, Italy (not Spain, I checked) are all managed by managers who have won trophies at club level.
Gareth Southgate's CV is managing a Middlesbrough side he got relegated and then the under 21s. He wasnt even the FA's pick.
Although I have to agree with posters the other day who said that if independent countries want to join the EU/NATO it has nothing to do with Russia, although I can see how it will annoy Russia and cause paranoia.
Putin would be most hurt that you think him that incompetent.
Compare that to today where there are umpteen media outlets wanting to do you in, sorry 'hold you to account' (if only for a good story) and anything you say in public can immediately be clipped and cast in the worst possible light. Moreover, the public has become so much more cynical about politics that I think even if a politician with Blair's presentation skills came along today, he'd be far more marmite than he was then.
No wonder Labour has calculated that minimising risk is preferable to being inspiring. Boris largely did the same - hiding away from media appearances despite it previously being his main forte - in 2019.
There's an issue in our modern political media environment that the two main parties need to be (though not sure what the Tories are doing now, are acting like a crap minor party) broadcasting - trying to seem electable to the maximal number of people, and thus are risk averse. While minor insurgent parties can narrowcast - and be exciting or 'inspiring' to a certain group, while making everyone else think they're crackers, abhorrent or both.
Morally and ethically it’s just wrong. Legally, I don’t know (but possibly). The public won’t really care about the last bit. It’s the first part that sticks.
It’s tory sleaze … yet again. How many times these past 5 years?
It gave a huge advantage to the Danes as they're used to playing in hot climates
My version would be
major market - examples: winner of top level football match, main racing cards - everyone should be able to win at least £1000
medium market - examples: bookings or corners in top level football match, televised greyhound race, atp tennis match - everyone should be able to win at least £250
minor market - non-league football match, player to get a card in top level match, novetly and entertainment betting
- everyone should be able to win at least £100
The above shouldn't cost the bookies much, indeed on the major markets they should be able to use winners information to be profitable themselves a la pinnacle and the asian books.
Its a regulated licensed industry so it is up to the government, and ultimately us, to decide the level of service and freedom bookmakers should have. I don't think it right, or in the public interest, that they are able to advertise their services as betting when it is in reality betting as long as you lose to us, otherwise we won't play.
I'm selling the spread at 4-6 for the number of posts before vaccines comes up.
This one is almost T55 standard.
He simply says that Mitchell is one of the good guys. And he’s right.
Day 849 of my 3 day war. I went to North Korea, signed a military agreement with Kim, and then threatened South Korea, one of the world’s best weapon producers, about arming Ukraine.
I remain a master strategist.
https://x.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1804132494704259153
The Rus began more in Kyiv than Moscow, which was a Johnny-Come-Lately. It was a great shame that in the latter period of the Golden Horde the leadership position of tribute collector (I forget the technical name) shifted to Moscow. Other places, such as the somewhat democratic Novgorod, would've offered far more hope for the future than the tyrannical and domineering Moscow. They were able to take advantage of the Mongolian disintegration to cement their position as the chief power of the Rus and then to grind beneath their boot heel other powers in the area (including their role in the Partitions of Poland-Lithuania).
However, Moscow also learnt a lot from the Mongol way of doing things, which was of ruler and ruled, tribute-taker and -payer. This stands in stark contrast to most of Europe which went through a period of feudalism then gradual (or revolutionary) progress towards democracy. In Russia, the Moscow city-state writ large, the serfs remained far longer. Mechanisation was unnecessary because 'slave' labour sufficed. Democracy was undesired. The degree of control and inequality was far worse for ordinary people than the rest of Europe. And this continued through the fall of the Tsars and rise of Communism, and now with oligarchs and the Tsar in all but name.
What of Ukraine? Well, that had been, in part at least, within Poland-Lithuania before the eastern portions were gobbled up by Russia. Some also fell within the Austrian Empire (latterly Austro-Hungary). Kyiv as a city of significance long predates Moscow, which also (laughably) claims to be the Third Rome.
When it comes to the Rus, Ukraine was closer to founding Russia than Russia was to founding Ukraine.
Anyway, not my main area of interest but that's what I've gathered between a prolonged Mongolian podcast, reading and listening about the Eastern Roman Empire, and (currently) re-reading Vanished Kingdoms by Norman Davies.
Edited extra bit: btw, Lithuania took some territory which today is Ukrainian when the Golden Horde crumbled.
xx
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2909674/#Comment_2909674
My remedy for the NHS is not particularly based on increased state funding, and hasn't really changed from my first ever PB header:
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/01/three-score-and-ten-has-the-nhs-reached-the-end-of-its-natural-life/
I think my suggestion of individual Health and Social Care Accounts analogous to a SIPP is the way to go. Health Insurers are too narrow in their exclusions.
No one known to me is suggesting "500k Russians killed".
If we are talking about the stats from the Ukraine MOD that have proven to be generally reliable, afaik they cover casualties knocked out of the fight, rather than just killed.
So would include eg amputees aka in Russian WW2 terminology "samovars".
Although the funniest part about that was the message from whoever was on mod duty that morning.
Westerners arrogantly pontificating about the war without knowing the history are not helping
It’s a shame @Dura_Ace has disappeared (I do hope he’s not lying in some hospital in Kharkiv) - he might be a mad bastard but he knows his onions in this matter
Yes, have a bias towards lower taxes not higher, but not if the price is indecently threadbare public services and realm. And definitely not if it's not sustainable for the generations to follow.
Used to be centre-right. Now it's kind of a blank space on the map, sort of like the way West Berlin didn't exist on East German maps. (If you don't know the story, it's here: https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/513-then-we-take-berlin-when-east-ate-west/)
The only one who can stop the slaughter is the Aggressor. Ukraine has no ambitions beyond its borders.
That doesn't mean that Putin isn't a fascist dictator, nor, as Leon puts it, does it mean we shouldn't arm the Ukrainians to the teeth if they want to fight him. We absolutely should. The Western democratic system is objectively better than Putinist fascism, and I see no reason why we have to let Putin have Ukraine just because he sees it as his back yard. Hitler thought the same thing about his immediate neighbours.
He also mentions he has made his mind up as to how to vote, but didn't say. I agree I don't think you can deduce he is going to vote Tory at all. In fact I suspect the opposite. It is just that he particularly likes a particular Tory who is both a friend and in his opinion very effective.
You have sat in a few expensive hotels, ogling the girls, taking safe taxis from one ka-ching hotel to the next before nipping out.
Like all your travel it's totally phoney. You don't have the first clue what it means to spend time among local people. You're too busy letching, getting pissed, doing drugs and dining in plushy restaurants. Like a modern day Alan Whicker only entirely lacking the panache.
And yes it is very arguable that Kyivan rus is the cradle of Russia itself. The cave church on the Dniester! St Sophia’s cathedral. But that is another reason why many Russians see swathes of ukraine as rightfully part of Russia, indeed intrinsically
Russian, it’s where Russia was born and became Christian
We can argue that they are misguided (it’s almost impossible to adjudicate, we are talking about emotions) but that is the perception. Ukraine and Russia are brothers. Little Russia and big Russia
@SkyNews
BREAKING: Nigel Farage 'playing into hands of Putin' with 'completely wrong' comments on Ukraine war, Rishi Sunak says
Quoting out of context to make him seem a Putin Lickspittle.
What part of he also said the following did you miss?
"All that said, Putin’s war is hideous and satanic and ultimately disastrous for Russia itself, and Putin
must be stopped. He’s a menace to the rest of us and to his own people. And as long as Ukrainians want to fight him we should arm them to the teeth"
Nobody doubts Russia feels like that, but I’m not sure what the sequitur is.
If nothing else it puts paid to the idea this is some kind of defensive war provoked by NATO expansion. It’s a war of irredentism.
I made the Ireland comparison a few weeks ago and it’s pretty good but it doesn’t quite capture the spiritual link between Ukraine and Russia (as Russians see it) - and the way Russia was birthed in Kyivan rus
Imagine if English was first spoken in Dublin, and the English reformation was an originally Irish affair, and Ireland was physically part of the island of Britain, then you’d be closer
But there is no perfect analogy and none of this exculpates Putin - he’s a horrible murderous tyrant - and it doesn’t exonerate Farage - he made stupid remarks which, even if true in some narrow way, were badly timed and clumsily phrased and he might have blown up reform just as they were about to overtake the Tories. Dumb move
That, for me, is the biggest lacuna in UK economic policy over the last four decades.
(nb I am not talking about socialism.)
Could he have phrased it better? Possibly, but by and large he has placed himself just on the side of 'what he's saying makes sense' bloke in the pub vibes.
Any success exhibited by rival systems represented a weakening of the powerbase of your system. So Cuban medicine is an affront to America, Nazi military might was an affront to the Soviet Union, and American technological capacity was an affront to both.
Liberalism and consent-based international organisations are fatal to the legitimacy of Putin's regime and that's why he seeks to undermine them. Hence sowing discord within Western countries to "prove" that democracy is sclerotic and that we'd be "better off" with a strongman leader like him. Hence Russian disinformation attacking the EU, NATO. Hence Russia cosying up to other countries "threatened" by liberal internationalism: China, North Korea. Hence Russia being very keen on amplifying divisive politicians in the West who will weaken those institutions or the countries themselves, e.g. Trump, AfD.
We have provoked Putin: by existing. By standing up for the freedom of countries like Romania and Estonia to choose their own future. The fact that they have chosen "us" is entirely predictable because our system is objectively better. The ideology of freedom has rolled right up to Russia's border because it's been invited in. We can't avoid being provocative without ceasing to exist. We annoyed the Nazis and we annoyed the communists. And we'll continue to annoy Russia until it, or we, change. If we deny freedom to countries near Russia who seek it out, that would be us changing. I propose we don't do that, but continue to be ourselves. We will probably win, again.
Maybe a third of Ukrainians speak Russian as their “main language”. That would make more sense
This wasn't our "aggressive" (a seriously dishonest choice of epithet) expansionism.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan