Yes the new Mori MRP this evening gives Labour 453 seats, Tories 115, LDs 38 and SNP 15, plus 3 each for Reform and the Greens.
Suggests a Labour landslide but the Sunak Tories holding up better in the bluewall now than the redwall. It has Hunt holding Godalming and Ash for example by a narrow margin over the LDs
What are the chances of a red card in this Turkey / Georgia match.
Brilliantly, the football so far matches the actual relationship between Georgia and Turkey - feisty and fiery, with Turkey dominant but no way the Georgians will ever back down
In Woking there are loads of LibDem banners. I’ve not seen one single Conservative one. And yet, this is a Cons seat. Jonathan Lord had a majority of nearly 10,000 last time.
Although this is going to be a LibDem gain, those 50% who voted Cons last time cannot have ALL given up (can they?!).
So, to state the obvious, there aren’t just shy tories out there, but there must be ashamed tories.
I’m not suggesting the polls are wrong because presumably you’d fess up to a pollster, wouldn’t you? But there must be a fair number of people who are going to vote Conservative who wouldn’t dare admit it this time.
Or have I got that wrong?
Haven't you noticed that 99% of Tories haven't been putting up election posters for about 20 years?
Not really, Andy. We normally see a fair smattering of tory ones in Woking. But this time? Absolutely zilch. It’s quite remarkable.
Hence why I remarked on it
There's a load of Labour posters on Delancey St
This is Skyr Toolmakersson's own constituency, he is going to get a majority of 982,047
I can't get my head around the mentality of someone who puts up a Labour poster in that context. Are they perhaps rich nervous Brexity ex-Tories working in the City (we have a few on Delancey) or more like Germans in Nuremburg putting up swastikas as Leni Reifenstahl's camera crew rolls past?
If they don’t put one up their friends may think they are a secret Tory
In Woking there are loads of LibDem banners. I’ve not seen one single Conservative one. And yet, this is a Cons seat. Jonathan Lord had a majority of nearly 10,000 last time.
Although this is going to be a LibDem gain, those 50% who voted Cons last time cannot have ALL given up (can they?!).
So, to state the obvious, there aren’t just shy tories out there, but there must be ashamed tories.
I’m not suggesting the polls are wrong because presumably you’d fess up to a pollster, wouldn’t you? But there must be a fair number of people who are going to vote Conservative who wouldn’t dare admit it this time.
Or have I got that wrong?
Haven't you noticed that 99% of Tories haven't been putting up election posters for about 20 years?
Not really, Andy. We normally see a fair smattering of tory ones in Woking. But this time? Absolutely zilch. It’s quite remarkable.
Hence why I remarked on it
There's a load of Labour posters on Delancey St
This is Skyr Toolmakersson's own constituency, he is going to get a majority of 982,047
I can't get my head around the mentality of someone who puts up a Labour poster in that context. Are they perhaps rich nervous Brexity ex-Tories working in the City (we have a few on Delancey) or more like Germans in Nuremburg putting up swastikas as Leni Reifenstahl's camera crew rolls past?
It's a crushing blow not to be on Leon's list. I'm staring at the bollard outside my bedsit but even the mandatory drizzle can't cheer me. I'm shaken. To the core.
I'll do another one next year. You never know
I might not last. I'm thinking of doing something drastic.
Thinking of Voting Reform? Do something more sensible like training to be a Kamikaze pilot.
To be fair, I've looked at all my local candidates and the Reform one actually made the top 5
I bumped into my Reform candidate and he seemed nice a quietly spoken if not very impactful. But I’m not voting for a party lead by Farage
What are those of us not on Leon’s list going to do? We must form a support group.
I'll do a special needs list for the strivers, like yourself
Special needs? Yes, you've caught me. In my defence I lose brain cells every time I look at your shit. Reading you is like being waterboarded with dumb.
France politics just got more complicated. Bardella - leader of the hard right RN- now saying he won’t go to Matignon (Downing street ) without an absolute majority. Which he probably won’t get now because of the seeming rise of the hard left coalition. Has he avoided Macron’s trap?
In Woking there are loads of LibDem banners. I’ve not seen one single Conservative one. And yet, this is a Cons seat. Jonathan Lord had a majority of nearly 10,000 last time.
Although this is going to be a LibDem gain, those 50% who voted Cons last time cannot have ALL given up (can they?!).
So, to state the obvious, there aren’t just shy tories out there, but there must be ashamed tories.
I’m not suggesting the polls are wrong because presumably you’d fess up to a pollster, wouldn’t you? But there must be a fair number of people who are going to vote Conservative who wouldn’t dare admit it this time.
Or have I got that wrong?
Haven't you noticed that 99% of Tories haven't been putting up election posters for about 20 years?
Not really, Andy. We normally see a fair smattering of tory ones in Woking. But this time? Absolutely zilch. It’s quite remarkable.
Hence why I remarked on it
There's a load of Labour posters on Delancey St
This is Skyr Toolmakersson's own constituency, he is going to get a majority of 982,047
I can't get my head around the mentality of someone who puts up a Labour poster in that context. Are they perhaps rich nervous Brexity ex-Tories working in the City (we have a few on Delancey) or more like Germans in Nuremburg putting up swastikas as Leni Reifenstahl's camera crew rolls past?
If they don’t put one up their friends may think they are a secret Tory
It's a crushing blow not to be on Leon's list. I'm staring at the bollard outside my bedsit but even the mandatory drizzle can't cheer me. I'm shaken. To the core.
I'll do another one next year. You never know
I might not last. I'm thinking of doing something drastic.
Thinking of Voting Reform? Do something more sensible like training to be a Kamikaze pilot.
To be fair, I've looked at all my local candidates and the Reform one actually made the top 5
I bumped into my Reform candidate and he seemed nice a quietly spoken if not very impactful. But I’m not voting for a party lead by Farage
Nor me. I've got five candidates in my area. They didn't make the top 4.
There's no need for confusion on the tax question. Labour will raise ALL taxes, they won't have any choice
Everyone knows that, the size of their majority depends upon which ones they admit they are planning to raise.
Labour are gonna end up hated, really quite quickly
After that, Farage beckons
Ah so this is an interesting (!) self-help strategy to cope with the prospect of a landslide Labour government - convince yourself it will lead to the triumph of the Hard Right.
You can read it as you wish, I don't give a tiny scintilla of an iota of a soupcon of an atomic nano-fuck how you perceive me
It is obviously going to be easier if you could let us know whose opinion of you you do care about then you don't have to spell it out each time to each poster.
I'll help you to get the process going.
You really, really care what I think of you and a strenuous denial will simply be proof that you are super affected by my opinion of you.
That;s actually an interesting question. Whose opinion matters to me. It would have to be PB-ers whose intellect I respect, and/or who can ban me
Labour is heading for a landslide win in the election, according to a new projection, but more than 100 Conservative-held seats appear to be on a knife-edge with the results in the hands of millions of undecided or swing voters.
In its first MRP model of the 2024 general election, Ipsos estimated Labour could win 453 seats and the Conservatives 115, giving Keir Starmer’s party a majority of 256 and inflicting the Tories’ worst ever defeat.
The Liberal Democrats could win 38 seats and the Scottish National party 15, three for the Greens and three for Reform UK. According to the projection, Nigel Farage is on track to overturn a huge Tory majority to win in Clacton while Jeremy Corbyn, standing as an independent, is predicted to lose to Labour in Islington North.
Labour has an implied vote share of 43%, with Rishi Sunak’s Tories on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3% and Plaid Cymru on 1%...
...High-profile Tories at risk of losing their seats include Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, and Jacob Rees-Mogg.
However, Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is predicted to cling on in Godalming and Ash, in a race that is too close to call, while Sunak’s Richmond and Northallerton seat is a Conservative hold but on a much-reduced majority, on 40% versus Labour’s 33%.
Labour’s vote share is increasing across the country, especially in Scotland and north-east England, with more modest advances or even some drops in urban areas where the party has traditionally been strong such as London, Manchester and Birmingham.
Labour has an implied vote share of 43%, with Rishi Sunak’s Tories on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3% and Plaid Cymru on 1%.
IPSOS Sample 20,000 people 7-12 June
A lot of this will be relatively old data, but it's the very top end of the polling for the Tories. The range for them here is 160 seats if everything goes well (ie, DKs break to them disproportionately) to around 70 if it doesn't.
Islington North down as a comfortable Labour hold.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
Are you happy for a fascist to take over a party that you are committed to?
Are you happy for hyperbolic over use of the word "fascist" to detoxify it and in time make actual fascists electable?
What ever else Farage is or isn't he dosent advocate violence to get his way politically and run paramilitary organisations to firm up his support and and intimidate opponents
Howecer the three main parties have an unfortunate record, even in recent decades, when it comes to appeasing parties in the UK with Westminster seats who did.
See my previous post. Well done for using the word hyperbole, though it was a little hyperbolic to use it in this context.
If the polling doesn't start to turn, yes. It's been one way traffic for 2 weeks solid
Got to admit I was expecting things to begin narrowing.
Maybe they still will. Maybe the constant tax attack will stick. Time is running out though.
An interesting test on this coming up @Heathener Today's Yougov 'stories heard most about in the last week' is the first since Dday to not feature Rishi doing a runner in the top 3 (it's almost faded out totally overnight), if that has been impacting Tory VI that shackle MAY now be released
"Dozens of Tory-held seats on a knife-edge" is a logically stupid thing to write, because that would be the case almost no matter what swing there was from Con to Lab. But it probably sounds good in a headline.
What are those of us not on Leon’s list going to do? We must form a support group.
I'll do a special needs list for the strivers, like yourself
Special needs? Yes, you've caught me. In my defence I lose brain cells every time I look at your shit. Reading you is like being waterboarded with dumb.
It is indeed a marvel of the world that I get paid to write this "dumb shit", and you, to put it gently, don't
It's a crushing blow not to be on Leon's list. I'm staring at the bollard outside my bedsit but even the mandatory drizzle can't cheer me. I'm shaken. To the core.
I'll do another one next year. You never know
I might not last. I'm thinking of doing something drastic.
Thinking of Voting Reform? Do something more sensible like training to be a Kamikaze pilot.
To be fair, I've looked at all my local candidates and the Reform one actually made the top 5
I bumped into my Reform candidate and he seemed nice a quietly spoken if not very impactful. But I’m not voting for a party lead by Farage
Nor me. I've got five candidates in my area. They didn't make the top 4.
Labour has an implied vote share of 43%, with Rishi Sunak’s Tories on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3% and Plaid Cymru on 1%.
IPSOS Sample 20,000 people 7-12 June
Looks realistic except for the Green result, and with some Tory swingback still due. Reform on 12% is hardly crossover territory. Tactical voting would probably give the Lib Dems a slightly better return than that.
There's no need for confusion on the tax question. Labour will raise ALL taxes, they won't have any choice
Everyone knows that, the size of their majority depends upon which ones they admit they are planning to raise.
Labour are gonna end up hated, really quite quickly
After that, Farage beckons
Ah so this is an interesting (!) self-help strategy to cope with the prospect of a landslide Labour government - convince yourself it will lead to the triumph of the Hard Right.
You can read it as you wish, I don't give a tiny scintilla of an iota of a soupcon of an atomic nano-fuck how you perceive me
It is obviously going to be easier if you could let us know whose opinion of you you do care about then you don't have to spell it out each time to each poster.
I'll help you to get the process going.
You really, really care what I think of you and a strenuous denial will simply be proof that you are super affected by my opinion of you.
That;s actually an interesting question. Whose opinion matters to me. It would have to be PB-ers whose intellect I respect, and/or who can ban me
I remember posting on here that at GE2017 I only saw one Tory poster during the entire campaign, which was in a field just outside Maidenhead IIRC. Yet the Tories got 44% of the vote.
I'll bet that Tory poster in a field in Maidenhead was in a field of wheat.
"Dozens of Tory-held seats on a knife-edge" is a logically stupid thing to write, because that would be the case almost no matter what swing there was from Con to Lab. But it probably sounds good in a headline.
Its not stupid at all. Off a very similar Tory % they could end up with 50 or 150 seats. That is not normal in a UK election.
There's no need for confusion on the tax question. Labour will raise ALL taxes, they won't have any choice
Everyone knows that, the size of their majority depends upon which ones they admit they are planning to raise.
Labour are gonna end up hated, really quite quickly
After that, Farage beckons
Ah so this is an interesting (!) self-help strategy to cope with the prospect of a landslide Labour government - convince yourself it will lead to the triumph of the Hard Right.
You can read it as you wish, I don't give a tiny scintilla of an iota of a soupcon of an atomic nano-fuck how you perceive me
It is obviously going to be easier if you could let us know whose opinion of you you do care about then you don't have to spell it out each time to each poster.
I'll help you to get the process going.
You really, really care what I think of you and a strenuous denial will simply be proof that you are super affected by my opinion of you.
That;s actually an interesting question. Whose opinion matters to me. It would have to be PB-ers whose intellect I respect, and/or who can ban me
And @Peter_the_Punter because I've met him and he's a genuinely nice guy
They all think you're a c**t if that helps.
They are sensible enough to know an echo chamber and having eccentric right wingers who are gifted at writing prose helps avoid this fate.
I award you the George Galloway Cup for Obsequiousness 2024. I am surprised you didn't say “Leon, Sir, I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability.”
If you want an idea of how defensive the Tory campaign has become, Sunak has just been meeting fishermen in Geoffrey Cox’s constituency in West Devon, where he has a majority of 25,000
France politics just got more complicated. Bardella - leader of the hard right RN- now saying he won’t go to Matignon (Downing street ) without an absolute majority. Which he probably won’t get now because of the seeming rise of the hard left coalition. Has he avoided Macron’s trap?
Well if he leads the largest party Macron will likely appoint him PM anyway as neither the hard left block or Macron's block plus Les Republicains would have a majority either
Labour has an implied vote share of 43%, with Rishi Sunak’s Tories on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3% and Plaid Cymru on 1%.
IPSOS Sample 20,000 people 7-12 June
A lot of this will be relatively old data, but it's the very top end of the polling for the Tories. The range for them here is 160 seats if everything goes well (ie, DKs break to them disproportionately) to around 70 if it doesn't.
Islington North down as a comfortable Labour hold.
Hopefully July 4th will be an entertaining evening watching soon to be ex-MPs who fancied that they had a big personal vote.
What are those of us not on Leon’s list going to do? We must form a support group.
I'll do a special needs list for the strivers, like yourself
Special needs? Yes, you've caught me. In my defence I lose brain cells every time I look at your shit. Reading you is like being waterboarded with dumb.
It is indeed a marvel of the world that I get paid to write this "dumb shit", and you, to put it gently, don't
It is indeed a marvel that you get paid to write what you come out with. The fact that someone pays you for this, and that a politician with the talents of Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, does prove that shit constantly rises to the top.
"Labour’s vote share is increasing across the country, especially in Scotland and north-east England, with more modest advances or even some drops in urban areas where the party has traditionally been strong such as London, Manchester and Birmingham."
I’m surprised at that MRP on Jeremy Hunt. It doesn’t tally with what I’ve heard on the local grapevine, but who knows?
He’s not the worst of the Conservatives and he has some personal support in these parts.
Unless "How many huge orange diamonds can you see from your window?" is one of the questions, there's no way I can see of a MRP getting a hyper focused campaign like the Lib Dems right. Or, come to think of it, Comrade Jez's bid to win in Islington.
France politics just got more complicated. Bardella - leader of the hard right RN- now saying he won’t go to Matignon (Downing street ) without an absolute majority. Which he probably won’t get now because of the seeming rise of the hard left coalition. Has he avoided Macron’s trap?
Well if he leads the largest party Macron will likely appoint him PM anyway as neither the hard left block or Macron's block plus Les Republicains would have a majority either
It could set up an interesting constitutional crisis if the elected parliament effectively refused to form a government under Macron.
The previous MRP said Mid Leicestershire would go to Reform, this one says NW Leicestershire will do, which was Andrew Bridgen's seat until dissolution.
"Reform UK, meanwhile, is estimated to hang on to Lee Anderson’s Ashfield seat and to take Clacton, where Farage could overturn a massive Conservative majority. North West Leicestershire is also leaning towards Reform, though with a small lead."
If the polling doesn't start to turn, yes. It's been one way traffic for 2 weeks solid
Well you're a keen poll watcher so let's see. If that does happen, Cons below 50, my LD seats buy at 40 could be an absolute rock star.
Could be some great human interest stories too. Would be a few LD candidates who stand without much expectation or thought of winning who end up straight in the shadow cabinet.
I'm sure he is. I doubt the whips or press team will be if they need half their MPs to be in the shadow cabinet though.
They are a liberal party - what's the problem ?
Just to be clear, I have no problem with it. I suspect the whips would, and if they didn't and he ended up in the shadow cabinet then the press and his opponents probably would too.
Labour has an implied vote share of 43%, with Rishi Sunak’s Tories on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3% and Plaid Cymru on 1%.
IPSOS Sample 20,000 people 7-12 June
A lot of this will be relatively old data, but it's the very top end of the polling for the Tories. The range for them here is 160 seats if everything goes well (ie, DKs break to them disproportionately) to around 70 if it doesn't.
Islington North down as a comfortable Labour hold.
On your last point, it says that all the independents combined will only get 13% (Labour 54%) in Islington N. Clearly, Corbyn on his own will get a lot more than 13%, even though I don't think he'll win. But it rather suggests the poll isn't taking into account specific constituency factors. And, as you say, it's a bit old (polling 7-12 June).
Labour has an implied vote share of 43%, with Rishi Sunak’s Tories on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3% and Plaid Cymru on 1%.
IPSOS Sample 20,000 people 7-12 June
I’d actually be really happy with a result like this. It would give me the Gov’t I want. But it wouldn’t decimate the Conservatives, meaning that they would hopefully pick themselves up, begin sorting things out, and get back on an even keel to be an effective Opposition. Whilst all the while keeping at bay the fascists like Braverman and Farage.
The news of Joey Barton’s apology and commitment to pay damages and costs is not the final outcome of this case.
After five defamatory tweets, my lawyer offered Barton a chance to settle: pay £75k, plus my costs, and make an apology.
He ignored that offer and posted more disgusting tweets about me, even publishing my home address to his followers.
When I then took my case to the High Court, a judge ruled that TEN of the tweets I complained of were defamatory. Having lost, Barton has returned to the offer we made after tweet 5.
There has therefore been a parallel action on tweets 6-10 and Barton will pay further damages for these. A number of other steps — including statements made in Court by way of apology — are still to be taken, and Barton has agreed to pay my legal costs of all of the claims.
What are those of us not on Leon’s list going to do? We must form a support group.
I'll do a special needs list for the strivers, like yourself
Special needs? Yes, you've caught me. In my defence I lose brain cells every time I look at your shit. Reading you is like being waterboarded with dumb.
It is indeed a marvel of the world that I get paid to write this "dumb shit", and you, to put it gently, don't
It is indeed a marvel that you get paid to write what you come out with. The fact that someone pays you for this, and that a politician with the talents of Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, does prove that shit constantly rises to the top.
Even better, this state of affair drives you fucking mental
What are those of us not on Leon’s list going to do? We must form a support group.
I'll do a special needs list for the strivers, like yourself
Special needs? Yes, you've caught me. In my defence I lose brain cells every time I look at your shit. Reading you is like being waterboarded with dumb.
It is indeed a marvel of the world that I get paid to write this "dumb shit", and you, to put it gently, don't
It is indeed a marvel that you get paid to write what you come out with. The fact that someone pays you for this, and that a politician with the talents of Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, does prove that shit constantly rises to the top.
Naughty. Leon is a gifted writer and his articles and posts always worth reading (haven't taken the step yet with his books, as um, one or two others on the list ahead of his).
The news of Joey Barton’s apology and commitment to pay damages and costs is not the final outcome of this case.
After five defamatory tweets, my lawyer offered Barton a chance to settle: pay £75k, plus my costs, and make an apology.
He ignored that offer and posted more disgusting tweets about me, even publishing my home address to his followers.
When I then took my case to the High Court, a judge ruled that TEN of the tweets I complained of were defamatory. Having lost, Barton has returned to the offer we made after tweet 5.
There has therefore been a parallel action on tweets 6-10 and Barton will pay further damages for these. A number of other steps — including statements made in Court by way of apology — are still to be taken, and Barton has agreed to pay my legal costs of all of the claims.
"Labour’s vote share is increasing across the country, especially in Scotland and north-east England, with more modest advances or even some drops in urban areas where the party has traditionally been strong such as London, Manchester and Birmingham."
@SouthamObserver as (I presume) a Southam local can you put me right on a question: my parents live in the Southam & Kenilworth seat. They are planning to vote Lib Dem and are convinced Lib Dems are best placed to beat the Conservative there but tactical websites think otherwise. Your thoughts?
What are those of us not on Leon’s list going to do? We must form a support group.
I'll do a special needs list for the strivers, like yourself
Special needs? Yes, you've caught me. In my defence I lose brain cells every time I look at your shit. Reading you is like being waterboarded with dumb.
It is indeed a marvel of the world that I get paid to write this "dumb shit", and you, to put it gently, don't
It is indeed a marvel that you get paid to write what you come out with. The fact that someone pays you for this, and that a politician with the talents of Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, does prove that shit constantly rises to the top.
Naughty. Leon is a gifted writer and his articles and posts always worth reading (haven't taken the step yet with his books, as um, one or two others on the list ahead of his).
He is just a very needy gifted writer.
Leon, darling, we're just teasing.
Exhibitonist rather than needy, it's fine judgment, but there is a difference
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
FPT BartholomewRoberts said:
» show previous quotes I know you don't like the unionist parties but I thought you had no love lost for the SNP too nowadays?
Are you back on board with the SNP under Swinney? Or is Alba more your vibe?
No chance, Swinney is one of the biggest rats in the nest. No way I will vote SNP whilst teh current bunch of shysters are in control. I have only Alba or ISP as the only real Independence parties left and so looks likely that I will have no-one to vote for this time.
In news that forces me to reappraise my views on the iniquities of UK planning law, I've just been told that the "prefecture" (i.e. the department of Saone et Loire) have retrospectively denied us planning permission to use a certain colour of corrugated metal on a barn conversion despite the Mairie giving its blessing a year ago.
The building work has already bloody been done!
And who the hell cares at the prefecture? The metal cladding is on a building tucked away down a cul de sac at the edge of a hamlet and is only visible to one neighbour, who loves it and has something similar herself.
This appears to be not NIMBY action but pen-pushers in the city hall. But apparently it's the first time our architects have ever seen the prefecture go against the advice of a Mairie.
Unless that devious local farmer who has been trying to play silly buggers with our garden perimeter has been up to his usual tricks...
"In November, long before #zeroseats, even as the media was reporting politics as usual, I wrote a thread on why the Tories were heading for an epochal defeat. Now that this is received wisdom, it's time for a new thread, forecasting how Labour will govern. Be very afraid."
I pray that this dude is wrong; I fear in my vittals that he is bang on
@SouthamObserver as (I presume) a Southam local can you put me right on a question: my parents live in the Southam & Kenilworth seat. They are planning to vote Lib Dem and are convinced Lib Dems are best placed to beat the Conservative there but tactical websites think otherwise. Your thoughts?
Ex-local lad, now in Sidmouth, East Devon.
Last time, Labour and the LDs finished within a couple of hundred votes of each other, I think, so it's a very tough call to make. Warwick & Leamington, which K&S surrounds, will move from ultra marginal to safe Labour, for example. However, another next door constituency, Stratford-upon-Avon, will be a major LibDem focus, while Labour will be looking to take Rugby. In other words, there are no real pointers. This is a seat where I can see the Tory holding on with well under 50% because of a split opposition. Forced choice - my very uneducated guess is Labour will get closest.
"Dozens of Tory-held seats on a knife-edge" is a logically stupid thing to write, because that would be the case almost no matter what swing there was from Con to Lab. But it probably sounds good in a headline.
Its not stupid at all. Off a very similar Tory % they could end up with 50 or 150 seats. That is not normal in a UK election.
No, @Andy_JS is right. The range could be 50-150, 100-200 or 150-250 It's not +/- 50 just at this level of swing.
It gets better. http://Vetting.com is not a vetting company, it's a vetting platform. You buy a license and do the input yourself. It looks like someone at @reformparty_uk didn't understand that. But no, of course, it's "an establishment stitch-up"
It gets better. http://Vetting.com is not a vetting company, it's a vetting platform. You buy a license and do the input yourself. It looks like someone at @reformparty_uk didn't understand that. But no, of course, it's "an establishment stitch-up"
PPE and Vetting services available at mug dot farage
"In November, long before #zeroseats, even as the media was reporting politics as usual, I wrote a thread on why the Tories were heading for an epochal defeat. Now that this is received wisdom, it's time for a new thread, forecasting how Labour will govern. Be very afraid."
I pray that this dude is wrong; I fear in my vittals that he is bang on
Just read that thread. Most of it read linked “Labour have said they will do X…but what if they do Y? That would be terrifying”
Not saying they will stick to the manifesto at all but there wasn’t much in there which seemed credibly scary.
Again the Tory MRP share higher than standard poll share
25% seems like a very likely value for the Tories to actually end up with on election night imo.
I’m still going 25-27% Cons
What is surprising me is that the Labour vote share is holding up. I was expecting more of a gentle slide.
That’s where I am on Cons I think. I said 204 (I think!) after the election was called; I’ve since priced in a bit of d-day collapse which I think has been quite damaging so we’re down into the 150s.
On the MRP I’m not sure where that third Green seat is coming from. In reality I expect two close seconds and no actual seats.
"In November, long before #zeroseats, even as the media was reporting politics as usual, I wrote a thread on why the Tories were heading for an epochal defeat. Now that this is received wisdom, it's time for a new thread, forecasting how Labour will govern. Be very afraid."
I pray that this dude is wrong; I fear in my vittals that he is bang on
Just read that thread. Most of it read linked “Labour have said they will do X…but what if they do Y? That would be terrifying”
Not saying they will stick to the manifesto at all but there wasn’t much in there which seemed credibly scary.
"In November, long before #zeroseats, even as the media was reporting politics as usual, I wrote a thread on why the Tories were heading for an epochal defeat. Now that this is received wisdom, it's time for a new thread, forecasting how Labour will govern. Be very afraid."
I pray that this dude is wrong; I fear in my vittals that he is bang on
Just read that thread. Most of it read linked “Labour have said they will do X…but what if they do Y? That would be terrifying”
Not saying they will stick to the manifesto at all but there wasn’t much in there which seemed credibly scary.
Another subtlety lost on @Leon. He’s just a MAGAloon I’m afraid and loves trying to whip up reaction on here.
Why is a so-called successful writer spending so much of his life on a minor political forum? It doesn’t stack up ...
Doesn't pass the smell test in Oxfordshire. Labour are going to be higher than 19% in Witney and they're not going to be anywhere near 30% in Didcot & Wantage or Bicester & Woodstock.
"In November, long before #zeroseats, even as the media was reporting politics as usual, I wrote a thread on why the Tories were heading for an epochal defeat. Now that this is received wisdom, it's time for a new thread, forecasting how Labour will govern. Be very afraid."
I pray that this dude is wrong; I fear in my vittals that he is bang on
Just read that thread. Most of it read linked “Labour have said they will do X…but what if they do Y? That would be terrifying”
Not saying they will stick to the manifesto at all but there wasn’t much in there which seemed credibly scary.
His central thesis is that Labour are fucked economically, and stuck with few choices - which is true - so they will have to raise taxes just to stand still (this is not their fault, of course, they are inheriting a fiscal nightmare)
They won't be able to throw money at public services, so in the absence of that they will do loads of Woke things to keep activists and MPs happy, they won't tackle immigration, or the boat people, they will follow Scotland and Wales on education and health (God help us), they will follow Scotland on Trans, they will do awful, damaging things
Hence, I believe, a brutal backlash in five years when desperate voters reach for the hard right, not just the right
If Skyr Toolmakersson can prove me wrong, I will buy him - or me - a bottle of Brennivin by way of relief and celebration
"In November, long before #zeroseats, even as the media was reporting politics as usual, I wrote a thread on why the Tories were heading for an epochal defeat. Now that this is received wisdom, it's time for a new thread, forecasting how Labour will govern. Be very afraid."
I pray that this dude is wrong; I fear in my vittals that he is bang on
A lot of this talk about Labour seeking to stop any future government going in a right wing direction seems like scaremongering to me.
No Parliament can bind it's successor. The Tories could have thrown out most or all of the 1997-2010 reforms in the past 14 years if they'd wished but the fact is they chose not to.
As I said during a discussion on here last week 96.4% of the immigration into this country is legal and sanctioned/encouraged by the Government. Focusing on the 3ish % that come over by small boats is just another in a long line of Tory deceptions.
The Conservative Party has, for so long, been a successful political party because it has been able to tie together disparate groups, who don't all share exactly the same ideology.
And it's done this by being pragmatic and remembering that there are going to be people who believe homosexuality is a sin, and there are going to be people are publicly gay, but they might share common views about - say - the size of the state.
I'm reminded of Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, who was caught on tape saying that the US was in a (culture) war, and there would only be one winner.
No, Justice Alito, there is no winner. You cannot silence the voices of the 50% of people who disagree with you without actual war. And that actual war (see the Thirty Years War for an example) will end with everyone grudgingly agreeing that actually they can't agree and they can't force other people to agree with them.
The Conservative Party cannot just be the party of people left behind by globalisation. Nor can it just be the party of pensioners. Nor can it just be the party of wealthy plutocrats. It needs to be a big tent. If you choose to silence - or make unwelcome - the voices that disagree with you, then you are consigning yourself to electoral oblivion.
This is why "we didn't win because we weren't centrist enough" and "we didn't win because we weren't right wing enough" are both bullshit arguments. You didn't win because you were unable to make the tent big enough.
"In November, long before #zeroseats, even as the media was reporting politics as usual, I wrote a thread on why the Tories were heading for an epochal defeat. Now that this is received wisdom, it's time for a new thread, forecasting how Labour will govern. Be very afraid."
I pray that this dude is wrong; I fear in my vittals that he is bang on
Just read that thread. Most of it read linked “Labour have said they will do X…but what if they do Y? That would be terrifying”
Not saying they will stick to the manifesto at all but there wasn’t much in there which seemed credibly scary.
His central thesis is that Labour are fucked economically, and stuck with few choices - which is true - so they will have to raise taxes just to stand still (this is not their fault, of course, they are inheriting a fiscal nightmare)
They won't be able to throw money at public services, so in the absence of that they will do loads of Woke things to keep activists and MPs happy, they won't tackle immigration, or the boat people, they will follow Scotland and Wales on education and health (God help us), they will follow Scotland on Trans, they will do awful, damaging things
Hence, I believe, a brutal backlash in five years when desperate voters reach for the hard right, not just the right
If Skyr Toolmakersson can prove me wrong, I will buy him - or me - a bottle of Brennivin by way of relief and celebration
Collingwood and Pilkington have been predicting financial meltdown for years. LIGHTS FLASHING RED ON THE DASHBOARD!!!1!! every month. Chicken Little fare to panic people like you.
So whereas I thought I might have to vote LibDem, I’m no longer sure!
There is nothing about Newton Abbot that says Labour to me in any manner for a tactical vote. Lib Dem all the way.
Can I ask you please to be searingly honest? Are you a LibDem voter? Your “nothing […] in any manner” makes me less, not more, likely to believe you. It’s overdone.
Tactical.Vote didn’t even think about it, seemingly. They put LibDem from the word go.
Best for Britain took 3 weeks to weigh it up, carefully, and concluded that I should vote Labour.
From the MORI-IPSOS MRP on Newton Abbot
@Pro_Rata this is exactly what I was saying earlier. Newton Abbot is leaning Conservative but with Labour, not the LibDems, in second
I've been in California for the last couple of weeks. I've been trying to get a sense on the ground of where the Presidential election is heading, and from my entirely unscientific sample of friends and acquaintances in this completely atypical state, I am leaning Trump. Of course the usual caveat is that people don't start to focus on politics till after Labor Day in September, but with that out of the way, my main reasons for thinking so are:
- the economy. People feel the inflation here every time they go to the store. And they complain about it constantly and spontaneously, unlike most political issues. Biden has got all the blame for that, partially undeservedly, but that's politics. His misnamed and misdirected Inflation Reduction Act convinced absolutely nobody. - Israel/Palestine. As so often with his foreign policy, Biden has picked an unhappy middle course, doing enough to obstruct Israel to annoy its supporters while not helping the Palestinians nearly enough to appease theirs. - Biden's age. Spontaneously people are mentioning how he is deteriorating more and more. He is even more the butt of jokes than when I was here last time, which is not where a politician wants to be. - Trump. The 34 guilty verdicts are in a case no-one really cares about, and have angered only Trump's opponents. As none of the other cases look likely to go to trial before the election, and as any sentence in New York will be appealed until well into next year, I don't think the NY DA's indictment has done anything besides give Trump masses of free publicity to energise his supporters. It's completely bizarre and counterintuitive but there we are.
Some dogs that haven't barked in my political discussions with friends: the border, Ukraine, the strength of the economy, China.
@SouthamObserver as (I presume) a Southam local can you put me right on a question: my parents live in the Southam & Kenilworth seat. They are planning to vote Lib Dem and are convinced Lib Dems are best placed to beat the Conservative there but tactical websites think otherwise. Your thoughts?
Ex-local lad, now in Sidmouth, East Devon.
Last time, Labour and the LDs finished within a couple of hundred votes of each other, I think, so it's a very tough call to make. Warwick & Leamington, which K&S surrounds, will move from ultra marginal to safe Labour, for example. However, another next door constituency, Stratford-upon-Avon, will be a major LibDem focus, while Labour will be looking to take Rugby. In other words, there are no real pointers. This is a seat where I can see the Tory holding on with well under 50% because of a split opposition. Forced choice - my very uneducated guess is Labour will get closest.
Thanks. Given the tricky choice I expect they are probably best going with their hearts rather than me trying to persuade them otherwise. Their rationale was I think council election results.
Sounds like it might, in a wipeout, also end up with a LL one-two. If there are lots of them it will make for an interesting general election next time.
"In November, long before #zeroseats, even as the media was reporting politics as usual, I wrote a thread on why the Tories were heading for an epochal defeat. Now that this is received wisdom, it's time for a new thread, forecasting how Labour will govern. Be very afraid."
I pray that this dude is wrong; I fear in my vittals that he is bang on
Just read that thread. Most of it read linked “Labour have said they will do X…but what if they do Y? That would be terrifying”
Not saying they will stick to the manifesto at all but there wasn’t much in there which seemed credibly scary.
Another subtlety lost on @Leon. He’s just a MAGAloon I’m afraid and loves trying to whip up reaction on here.
Why is a so-called successful writer spending so much of his life on a minor political forum? It doesn’t stack up ...
Why is a world traveller, thermos-hot-water-hoarder, transgender expert, well known TV pundit, hardworking postwoman, friend of Misha Hussein, spa day goer, single mother, Devonshire farmer, AWARD WINNING WRITER, and close friend of Surrey Tories WHO ALSO ACTUALLY HAS A LIFE ACTUALLY - spending so much time on a minor political forum?
Comments
Suggests a Labour landslide but the Sunak Tories holding up better in the bluewall now than the redwall. It has Hunt holding Godalming and Ash for example by a narrow margin over the LDs
Also on that Betfair Exchange market, Doug Burgum seems misplaced as favourite, surely ?
Ipsos estimates Labour could win 453 seats and Tories 115, giving Labour 256 majority & inflicting Tories’ worst ever defeat.
Lib Dems 38/ SNP 15/ Greens 3/ Reform UK 3.
Nigel Farage on track to take Clacton while Jeremy Corbyn predicted to lose to Labour in Islington North.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv22wp1jwe4o
France politics just got more complicated. Bardella - leader of the hard right RN- now saying he won’t go to Matignon (Downing street ) without an absolute majority. Which he probably won’t get now because of the seeming rise of the hard left coalition. Has he avoided Macron’s trap?
https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1802993185116807364
I am, btw, copyrighting "Skyr Toolmakersson"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyr
In its first MRP model of the 2024 general election, Ipsos estimated Labour could win 453 seats and the Conservatives 115, giving Keir Starmer’s party a majority of 256 and inflicting the Tories’ worst ever defeat.
The Liberal Democrats could win 38 seats and the Scottish National party 15, three for the Greens and three for Reform UK. According to the projection, Nigel Farage is on track to overturn a huge Tory majority to win in Clacton while Jeremy Corbyn, standing as an independent, is predicted to lose to Labour in Islington North.
Labour has an implied vote share of 43%, with Rishi Sunak’s Tories on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3% and Plaid Cymru on 1%...
...High-profile Tories at risk of losing their seats include Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, and Jacob Rees-Mogg.
However, Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is predicted to cling on in Godalming and Ash, in a race that is too close to call, while Sunak’s Richmond and Northallerton seat is a Conservative hold but on a much-reduced majority, on 40% versus Labour’s 33%.
Labour’s vote share is increasing across the country, especially in Scotland and north-east England, with more modest advances or even some drops in urban areas where the party has traditionally been strong such as London, Manchester and Birmingham.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/18/labour-landslide-projected-tory-seats-conservatives-general-election?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Islington North down as a comfortable Labour hold.
Today's Yougov 'stories heard most about in the last week' is the first since Dday to not feature Rishi doing a runner in the top 3 (it's almost faded out totally overnight), if that has been impacting Tory VI that shackle MAY now be released
He’s not the worst of the Conservatives and he has some personal support in these parts.
Entire leaflet was relitigating Brexit.
Go on, Leon, that's a striver if ever I saw one.
Maybe he’s going to do it. Kudos to him if he does hold on.
Great to see from Ipsos.
This MRP (7-12 June) used random probability sampling, which means this should be a very high quality sample.
The fact it puts Cons a bit higher (25%) and Reform a bit lower (12%) is significant and reinforces my suspicions about RefUK being overstated.
https://x.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1803099004466602227
Why would Labour's vote go down in London?
What is surprising me is that the Labour vote share is holding up. I was expecting more of a gentle slide.
"Reform UK, meanwhile, is estimated to hang on to Lee Anderson’s Ashfield seat and to take Clacton, where Farage could overturn a massive Conservative majority. North West Leicestershire is also leaning towards Reform, though with a small lead."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/18/labour-landslide-projected-tory-seats-conservatives-general-election
Fake news!
Why it is taking forever to show the Hawkeye visualisation of offside actually on screen? It is taking 5+ minutes to get to show it on tv coverage.
STATEMENT REGARDING JOEY BARTON:
The news of Joey Barton’s apology and commitment to pay damages and costs is not the final outcome of this case.
After five defamatory tweets, my lawyer offered Barton a chance to settle: pay £75k, plus my costs, and make an apology.
He ignored that offer and posted more disgusting tweets about me, even publishing my home address to his followers.
When I then took my case to the High Court, a judge ruled that TEN of the tweets I complained of were defamatory. Having lost, Barton has returned to the offer we made after tweet 5.
There has therefore been a parallel action on tweets 6-10 and Barton will pay further damages for these. A number of other steps — including statements made in Court by way of apology — are still to be taken, and Barton has agreed to pay my legal costs of all of the claims.
Jeremy Vine
https://x.com/theJeremyVine/status/1803100048403665035
He is just a very needy gifted writer.
Leon, darling, we're just teasing.
And he serves as a warning to anyone else who wishes to disappear down that far right rabbit hole.
GO GEORGIA
What a game. Best game by far, to date
KHINKALI, KHINKALI, ORANGE WINE IS NOTHING TO BE SCARED OF
A show-off, basically
BartholomewRoberts said:
» show previous quotes
I know you don't like the unionist parties but I thought you had no love lost for the SNP too nowadays?
Are you back on board with the SNP under Swinney? Or is Alba more your vibe?
No chance, Swinney is one of the biggest rats in the nest. No way I will vote SNP whilst teh current bunch of shysters are in control. I have only Alba or ISP as the only real Independence parties left and so looks likely that I will have no-one to vote for this time.
The building work has already bloody been done!
And who the hell cares at the prefecture? The metal cladding is on a building tucked away down a cul de sac at the edge of a hamlet and is only visible to one neighbour, who loves it and has something similar herself.
This appears to be not NIMBY action but pen-pushers in the city hall. But apparently it's the first time our architects have ever seen the prefecture go against the advice of a Mairie.
Unless that devious local farmer who has been trying to play silly buggers with our garden perimeter has been up to his usual tricks...
https://x.com/admcollingwood/status/1803104439697313995
"In November, long before #zeroseats, even as the media was reporting politics as usual, I wrote a thread on why the Tories were heading for an epochal defeat. Now that this is received wisdom, it's time for a new thread, forecasting how Labour will govern. Be very afraid."
I pray that this dude is wrong; I fear in my vittals that he is bang on
Last time, Labour and the LDs finished within a couple of hundred votes of each other, I think, so it's a very tough call to make. Warwick & Leamington, which K&S surrounds, will move from ultra marginal to safe Labour, for example. However, another next door constituency, Stratford-upon-Avon, will be a major LibDem focus, while Labour will be looking to take Rugby. In other words, there are no real pointers. This is a seat where I can see the Tory holding on with well under 50% because of a split opposition. Forced choice - my very uneducated guess is Labour will get closest.
Replying to @RobDotHutton and @mrjamesob
It gets better. http://Vetting.com is not a vetting company, it's a vetting platform. You buy a license and do the input yourself. It looks like someone at @reformparty_uk didn't understand that. But no, of course, it's "an establishment stitch-up"
🚨NEW: FIRST IPSOS #GE2024 MRP🚨
Ipsos MRP estimates Labour could win 453 seats
🔴LAB 453
🔵CON 115
🟠LD 38
🟡SNP 15
🟢PC 4
🟦RFM 3
🟩GRN 3
20,000 participants surveyed online on the Ipsos KnowledgePanel
https://x.com/IpsosUK/status/1803107966637199746
Not saying they will stick to the manifesto at all but there wasn’t much in there which seemed credibly scary.
On the MRP I’m not sure where that third Green seat is coming from. In reality I expect two close seconds and no actual seats.
One of the two countries actually has a comprehensible reason for using the St George’s cross
https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1803081614345330761
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls/ipsos-election-mrp
Why is a so-called successful writer spending so much of his life on a minor political forum? It doesn’t stack up ...
https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/1803108317641744819
They won't be able to throw money at public services, so in the absence of that they will do loads of Woke things to keep activists and MPs happy, they won't tackle immigration, or the boat people, they will follow Scotland and Wales on education and health (God help us), they will follow Scotland on Trans, they will do awful, damaging things
Hence, I believe, a brutal backlash in five years when desperate voters reach for the hard right, not just the right
If Skyr Toolmakersson can prove me wrong, I will buy him - or me - a bottle of Brennivin by way of relief and celebration
No Parliament can bind it's successor. The Tories could have thrown out most or all of the 1997-2010 reforms in the past 14 years if they'd wished but the fact is they chose not to.
The Conservative Party has, for so long, been a successful political party because it has been able to tie together disparate groups, who don't all share exactly the same ideology.
And it's done this by being pragmatic and remembering that there are going to be people who believe homosexuality is a sin, and there are going to be people are publicly gay, but they might share common views about - say - the size of the state.
I'm reminded of Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, who was caught on tape saying that the US was in a (culture) war, and there would only be one winner.
No, Justice Alito, there is no winner. You cannot silence the voices of the 50% of people who disagree with you without actual war. And that actual war (see the Thirty Years War for an example) will end with everyone grudgingly agreeing that actually they can't agree and they can't force other people to agree with them.
The Conservative Party cannot just be the party of people left behind by globalisation. Nor can it just be the party of pensioners. Nor can it just be the party of wealthy plutocrats. It needs to be a big tent. If you choose to silence - or make unwelcome - the voices that disagree with you, then you are consigning yourself to electoral oblivion.
This is why "we didn't win because we weren't centrist enough" and "we didn't win because we weren't right wing enough" are both bullshit arguments. You didn't win because you were unable to make the tent big enough.
@Pro_Rata this is exactly what I was saying earlier. Newton Abbot is leaning Conservative but with Labour, not the LibDems, in second
- the economy. People feel the inflation here every time they go to the store. And they complain about it constantly and spontaneously, unlike most political issues. Biden has got all the blame for that, partially undeservedly, but that's politics. His misnamed and misdirected Inflation Reduction Act convinced absolutely nobody.
- Israel/Palestine. As so often with his foreign policy, Biden has picked an unhappy middle course, doing enough to obstruct Israel to annoy its supporters while not helping the Palestinians nearly enough to appease theirs.
- Biden's age. Spontaneously people are mentioning how he is deteriorating more and more. He is even more the butt of jokes than when I was here last time, which is not where a politician wants to be.
- Trump. The 34 guilty verdicts are in a case no-one really cares about, and have angered only Trump's opponents. As none of the other cases look likely to go to trial before the election, and as any sentence in New York will be appealed until well into next year, I don't think the NY DA's indictment has done anything besides give Trump masses of free publicity to energise his supporters. It's completely bizarre and counterintuitive but there we are.
Some dogs that haven't barked in my political discussions with friends: the border, Ukraine, the strength of the economy, China.
Conservatives still solidly the His Majesty's Opposition though 115 is still the worst defeat in Con history.
Sounds like it might, in a wipeout, also end up with a LL one-two. If there are lots of them it will make for an interesting general election next time.
Con 50%
Lab 38%
LD 7%
Grn 5%