Why do some right wing Tory MPs want to overturn a democratic vote? – politicalbetting.com

Another MRP predicting Reform will win a seat in Leicestershire.

Farooq said:

Malmesbury said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

It's a crushing blow not to be on Leon's list. I'm staring at the bollard outside my bedsit but even the mandatory drizzle can't cheer me. I'm shaken. To the core.

I'll do another one next year. You never know

I might not last. I'm thinking of doing something drastic.

Thinking of Voting Reform? Do something more sensible like training to be a Kamikaze pilot.

To be fair, I've looked at all my local candidates and the Reform one actually made the top 5

I bumped into my Reform candidate and he seemed nice a quietly spoken if not very impactful. But I’m not voting for a party lead by Farage

Meanwhile, in confus? vous serez news,

France politics just got more complicated. Bardella - leader of the hard right RN- now saying he won’t go to Matignon (Downing street ) without an absolute majority. Which he probably won’t get now because of the seeming rise of the hard left coalition. Has he avoided Macron’s trap?

https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1802993185116807364

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

There's no need for confusion on the tax question. Labour will raise ALL taxes, they won't have any choice

Everyone knows that, the size of their majority depends upon which ones they admit they are planning to raise.

Labour are gonna end up hated, really quite quickly

After that, Farage beckons

Ah so this is an interesting (!) self-help strategy to cope with the prospect of a landslide Labour government - convince yourself it will lead to the triumph of the Hard Right.

You can read it as you wish, I don't give a tiny scintilla of an iota of a soupcon of an atomic nano-fuck how you perceive me

It is obviously going to be easier if you could let us know whose opinion of you you do care about then you don't have to spell it out each time to each poster.

I'll help you to get the process going.

You really, really care what I think of you and a strenuous denial will simply be proof that you are super affected by my opinion of you.

That;s actually an interesting question. Whose opinion matters to me. It would have to be PB-ers whose intellect I respect, and/or who can ban me

So that's RCS and TSE

After that

@Richard_Nabavi

@IshmaelZ

(now sadly gone)

Sometimes @Gardenwalker and @FrancisUrquhart and a couple of others (I'll spare their blushes)

And @Peter_the_Punter because I've met him and he's a genuinely nice guy

They all think you're a c**t if that helps.

They are sensible enough to know an echo chamber and having eccentric right wingers who are gifted at writing prose helps avoid this fate.

Heathener said:

I think the IPSOS is out? It’s an MRP?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/18/labour-landslide-projected-tory-seats-conservatives-general-election?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Lab 453
Con 115
LibDem 38
SNP 15
Ref 3
Greens 3

Labour has an implied vote share of 43%, with Rishi Sunak’s Tories on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3% and Plaid Cymru on 1%.

IPSOS Sample 20,000 people 7-12 June

A lot of this will be relatively old data, but it's the very top end of the polling for the Tories. The range for them here is 160 seats if everything goes well (ie, DKs break to them disproportionately) to around 70 if it doesn't.

Islington North down as a comfortable Labour hold.

Heathener said:

wooliedyed said:

kinabalu said:

wooliedyed said:

How long until 0-49 seats is favourite??

Is that where you see it going? Really?

If the polling doesn't start to turn, yes. It's been one way traffic for 2 weeks solid

Got to admit I was expecting things to begin narrowing.

Maybe they still will. Maybe the constant tax attack will stick. Time is running out though.

An interesting test on this coming up @Heathener
Today's Yougov 'stories heard most about in the last week' is the first since Dday to not feature Rishi doing a runner in the top 3 (it's almost faded out totally overnight), if that has been impacting Tory VI that shackle MAY now be released

Farooq said:

StillWaters said:

Farooq said:

Malmesbury said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

It's a crushing blow not to be on Leon's list. I'm staring at the bollard outside my bedsit but even the mandatory drizzle can't cheer me. I'm shaken. To the core.

I'll do another one next year. You never know

I might not last. I'm thinking of doing something drastic.

Thinking of Voting Reform? Do something more sensible like training to be a Kamikaze pilot.

To be fair, I've looked at all my local candidates and the Reform one actually made the top 5

I bumped into my Reform candidate and he seemed nice a quietly spoken if not very impactful. But I’m not voting for a party lead by Farage

Nor me. I've got five candidates in my area. They didn't make the top 4.

He beat the LibDem for me.

Entire leaflet was relitigating Brexit.

Again the Tory MRP share higher than standard poll share

Heathener said:

I’m surprised at that MRP on Jeremy Hunt. It doesn’t tally with what I’ve heard on the local grapevine, but who knows?

He’s not the worst of the Conservatives and he has some personal support in these parts.

He is noticeably invisible from the national campaign.

Is the Ipsos seat-by-seat breakdown anywhere?

Heathener said:

I’m surprised at that MRP on Jeremy Hunt. It doesn’t tally with what I’ve heard on the local grapevine, but who knows?

He’s not the worst of the Conservatives and he has some personal support in these parts.

MRP doesn't take account of personal votes, right? Stand corrected if it does.

Andy_JS said:

"Dozens of Tory-held seats on a knife-edge" is a logically stupid thing to write, because that would be the case almost no matter what swing there was from Con to Lab. But it probably sounds good in a headline.

Its not stupid at all. Off a very similar Tory % they could end up with 50 or 150 seats. That is not normal in a UK election.

eek said:

If you want an idea of how defensive the Tory campaign has become, Sunak has just been meeting fishermen in Geoffrey Cox’s constituency in West Devon, where he has a majority of 25,000

Did they feel it was a bit high?

Stuartinromford said:

Meanwhile, in confus? vous serez news,

France politics just got more complicated. Bardella - leader of the hard right RN- now saying he won’t go to Matignon (Downing street ) without an absolute majority. Which he probably won’t get now because of the seeming rise of the hard left coalition. Has he avoided Macron’s trap?

https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1802993185116807364

Well if he leads the largest party Macron will likely appoint him PM anyway as neither the hard left block or Macron's block plus Les Republicains would have a majority either

Leon said:

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

DougSeal said:

What are those of us not on Leon’s list going to do? We must form a support group.

I'll do a special needs list for the strivers, like yourself

Special needs? Yes, you've caught me. In my defence I lose brain cells every time I look at your shit. Reading you is like being waterboarded with dumb.

It is indeed a marvel of the world that I get paid to write this "dumb shit", and you, to put it gently, don't

It is indeed a marvel that you get paid to write what you come out with. The fact that someone pays you for this, and that a politician with the talents of Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, does prove that shit constantly rises to the top.

Heathener said:

I’m surprised at that MRP on Jeremy Hunt. It doesn’t tally with what I’ve heard on the local grapevine, but who knows?

He’s not the worst of the Conservatives and he has some personal support in these parts.

Unless "How many huge orange diamonds can you see from your window?" is one of the questions, there's no way I can see of a MRP getting a hyper focused campaign like the Lib Dems right. Or, come to think of it, Comrade Jez's bid to win in Islington.

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

Meanwhile, in confus? vous serez news,

France politics just got more complicated. Bardella - leader of the hard right RN- now saying he won’t go to Matignon (Downing street ) without an absolute majority. Which he probably won’t get now because of the seeming rise of the hard left coalition. Has he avoided Macron’s trap?

https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1802993185116807364

Well if he leads the largest party Macron will likely appoint him PM anyway as neither the hard left block or Macron's block plus Les Republicains would have a majority either

It could set up an interesting constitutional crisis if the elected parliament effectively refused to form a government under Macron.

The previous MRP said Mid Leicestershire would go to Reform, this one says NW Leicestershire will do, which was Andrew Bridgen's seat until dissolution.

"Reform UK, meanwhile, is estimated to hang on to Lee Anderson’s Ashfield seat and to take Clacton, where Farage could overturn a massive Conservative majority. North West Leicestershire is also leaning towards Reform, though with a small lead."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/18/labour-landslide-projected-tory-seats-conservatives-general-election

I am told the full MRP will be published on the Ipsos website at 6pm.

Perfectly executed volley. A thing of beauty.

SouthamObserver said:

Heathener said:

I think the IPSOS is out? It’s an MRP?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/18/labour-landslide-projected-tory-seats-conservatives-general-election?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Lab 453
Con 115
LibDem 38
SNP 15
Ref 3
Greens 3

Labour has an implied vote share of 43%, with Rishi Sunak’s Tories on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3% and Plaid Cymru on 1%.

IPSOS Sample 20,000 people 7-12 June

A lot of this will be relatively old data, but it's the very top end of the polling for the Tories. The range for them here is 160 seats if everything goes well (ie, DKs break to them disproportionately) to around 70 if it doesn't.

Islington North down as a comfortable Labour hold.

On your last point, it says that all the independents combined will only get 13% (Labour 54%) in Islington N. Clearly, Corbyn on his own will get a lot more than 13%, even though I don't think he'll win. But it rather suggests the poll isn't taking into account specific constituency factors. And, as you say, it's a bit old (polling 7-12 June).

Artist said:

Another MRP predicting Reform will win a seat in Leicestershire.

Yes, this time it's the obvious one of NW, whereas Mid in the previous MRP was a very weird result.

Heathener said:

I think the IPSOS is out? It’s an MRP?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/18/labour-landslide-projected-tory-seats-conservatives-general-election?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Lab 453
Con 115
LibDem 38
SNP 15
Ref 3
Greens 3

Labour has an implied vote share of 43%, with Rishi Sunak’s Tories on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3% and Plaid Cymru on 1%.

IPSOS Sample 20,000 people 7-12 June

I’d actually be really happy with a result like this. It would give me the Gov’t I want. But it wouldn’t decimate the Conservatives, meaning that they would hopefully pick themselves up, begin sorting things out, and get back on an even keel to be an effective Opposition. Whilst all the while keeping at bay the fascists like Braverman and Farage.

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

DougSeal said:

What are those of us not on Leon’s list going to do? We must form a support group.

I'll do a special needs list for the strivers, like yourself

Special needs? Yes, you've caught me. In my defence I lose brain cells every time I look at your shit. Reading you is like being waterboarded with dumb.

It is indeed a marvel of the world that I get paid to write this "dumb shit", and you, to put it gently, don't

It is indeed a marvel that you get paid to write what you come out with. The fact that someone pays you for this, and that a politician with the talents of Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, does prove that shit constantly rises to the top.

Even better, this state of affair drives you fucking mental

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ooh.

STATEMENT REGARDING JOEY BARTON:

The news of Joey Barton’s apology and commitment to pay damages and costs is not the final outcome of this case.

After five defamatory tweets, my lawyer offered Barton a chance to settle: pay £75k, plus my costs, and make an apology.

He ignored that offer and posted more disgusting tweets about me, even publishing my home address to his followers.

When I then took my case to the High Court, a judge ruled that TEN of the tweets I complained of were defamatory. Having lost, Barton has returned to the offer we made after tweet 5.

There has therefore been a parallel action on tweets 6-10 and Barton will pay further damages for these. A number of other steps — including statements made in Court by way of apology — are still to be taken, and Barton has agreed to pay my legal costs of all of the claims.

Jeremy Vine

https://x.com/theJeremyVine/status/1803100048403665035

Vine's lawyers must have bought their 4 or 5th home on the back of knobheads on social media having a go at Vine.

Andy_JS said:

"Labour’s vote share is increasing across the country, especially in Scotland and north-east England, with more modest advances or even some drops in urban areas where the party has traditionally been strong such as London, Manchester and Birmingham."

Why would Labour's vote go down in London?

Hamas.

SouthamObserver said:

From someone who really knows his stuff ...

Great to see from Ipsos.

This MRP (7-12 June) used random probability sampling, which means this should be a very high quality sample.

The fact it puts Cons a bit higher (25%) and Reform a bit lower (12%) is significant and reinforces my suspicions about RefUK being overstated.

https://x.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1803099004466602227

@SouthamObserver as (I presume) a Southam local can you put me right on a question: my parents live in the Southam & Kenilworth seat. They are planning to vote Lib Dem and are convinced Lib Dems are best placed to beat the Conservative there but tactical websites think otherwise. Your thoughts?

TOPPING said:

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

DougSeal said:

What are those of us not on Leon’s list going to do? We must form a support group.

I'll do a special needs list for the strivers, like yourself

Special needs? Yes, you've caught me. In my defence I lose brain cells every time I look at your shit. Reading you is like being waterboarded with dumb.

It is indeed a marvel of the world that I get paid to write this "dumb shit", and you, to put it gently, don't

It is indeed a marvel that you get paid to write what you come out with. The fact that someone pays you for this, and that a politician with the talents of Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, does prove that shit constantly rises to the top.

Naughty. Leon is a gifted writer and his articles and posts always worth reading (haven't taken the step yet with his books, as um, one or two others on the list ahead of his).

He is just a very needy gifted writer.

Leon, darling, we're just teasing.

Exhibitonist rather than needy, it's fine judgment, but there is a difference

A show-off, basically

What a game!

In news that forces me to reappraise my views on the iniquities of UK planning law, I've just been told that the "prefecture" (i.e. the department of Saone et Loire) have retrospectively denied us planning permission to use a certain colour of corrugated metal on a barn conversion despite the Mairie giving its blessing a year ago.

The building work has already bloody been done!

And who the hell cares at the prefecture? The metal cladding is on a building tucked away down a cul de sac at the edge of a hamlet and is only visible to one neighbour, who loves it and has something similar herself.

This appears to be not NIMBY action but pen-pushers in the city hall. But apparently it's the first time our architects have ever seen the prefecture go against the advice of a Mairie.

Unless that devious local farmer who has been trying to play silly buggers with our garden perimeter has been up to his usual tricks...

TimS said:

SouthamObserver said:

From someone who really knows his stuff ...

Great to see from Ipsos.

This MRP (7-12 June) used random probability sampling, which means this should be a very high quality sample.

The fact it puts Cons a bit higher (25%) and Reform a bit lower (12%) is significant and reinforces my suspicions about RefUK being overstated.

https://x.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1803099004466602227

@SouthamObserver as (I presume) a Southam local can you put me right on a question: my parents live in the Southam & Kenilworth seat. They are planning to vote Lib Dem and are convinced Lib Dems are best placed to beat the Conservative there but tactical websites think otherwise. Your thoughts?

Ex-local lad, now in Sidmouth, East Devon.

Last time, Labour and the LDs finished within a couple of hundred votes of each other, I think, so it's a very tough call to make. Warwick & Leamington, which K&S surrounds, will move from ultra marginal to safe Labour, for example. However, another next door constituency, Stratford-upon-Avon, will be a major LibDem focus, while Labour will be looking to take Rugby. In other words, there are no real pointers. This is a seat where I can see the Tory holding on with well under 50% because of a split opposition. Forced choice - my very uneducated guess is Labour will get closest.

@ChrisStoneTV

Replying to @RobDotHutton and @mrjamesob

It gets better. http://Vetting.com is not a vetting company, it's a vetting platform. You buy a license and do the input yourself. It looks like someone at @reformparty_uk didn't understand that. But no, of course, it's "an establishment stitch-up"

@IpsosUK
🚨NEW: FIRST IPSOS #GE2024 MRP🚨

Ipsos MRP estimates Labour could win 453 seats

🔴LAB 453
🔵CON 115
🟠LD 38
🟡SNP 15
🟢PC 4
🟦RFM 3
🟩GRN 3

20,000 participants surveyed online on the Ipsos KnowledgePanel

https://x.com/IpsosUK/status/1803107966637199746

Leon said:

An absolutely terrifying thread about what an actual Labour government will be like


https://x.com/admcollingwood/status/1803104439697313995

"In November, long before #zeroseats, even as the media was reporting politics as usual, I wrote a thread on why the Tories were heading for an epochal defeat. Now that this is received wisdom, it's time for a new thread, forecasting how Labour will govern. Be very afraid."


I pray that this dude is wrong; I fear in my vittals that he is bang on

Just read that thread. Most of it read linked “Labour have said they will do X…but what if they do Y? That would be terrifying”

Not saying they will stick to the manifesto at all but there wasn’t much in there which seemed credibly scary.

England v Georgia would be interesting.

One of the two countries actually has a comprehensible reason for using the St George’s cross

Full Ipsos MRP data here

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls/ipsos-election-mrp

PedestrianRock said:

Leon said:

An absolutely terrifying thread about what an actual Labour government will be like


https://x.com/admcollingwood/status/1803104439697313995

"In November, long before #zeroseats, even as the media was reporting politics as usual, I wrote a thread on why the Tories were heading for an epochal defeat. Now that this is received wisdom, it's time for a new thread, forecasting how Labour will govern. Be very afraid."


I pray that this dude is wrong; I fear in my vittals that he is bang on

Just read that thread. Most of it read linked “Labour have said they will do X…but what if they do Y? That would be terrifying”

Not saying they will stick to the manifesto at all but there wasn’t much in there which seemed credibly scary.

Another subtlety lost on @Leon. He’s just a MAGAloon I’m afraid and loves trying to whip up reaction on here.

Why is a so-called successful writer spending so much of his life on a minor political forum? It doesn’t stack up ...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Full Ipsos MRP data here

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls/ipsos-election-mrp

Doesn't pass the smell test in Oxfordshire. Labour are going to be higher than 19% in Witney and they're not going to be anywhere near 30% in Didcot & Wantage or Bicester & Woodstock.

This Ipsos MRP is nuts. North Herefordshire is going... Green? What the actual ****?

TimS said:

A very useful graphic showing why the focus on small boats is an obfuscatory red herring, whether you're for or against large scale immigration:

https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/1803108317641744819

As I said during a discussion on here last week 96.4% of the immigration into this country is legal and sanctioned/encouraged by the Government. Focusing on the 3ish % that come over by small boats is just another in a long line of Tory deceptions.

Heathener said:

Pro_Rata said:

Heathener said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

I would have thought the most likely outcome for a big chunk of that 43% is not voting at all. If they've got so far and are still uncertain...

I am showing up in the polls (not this one) as undecided, but will definitely vote. I don't think I am the only one on this board.

Actually that’s a really good point as well. Some of the undecideds may be Tactical Voters?

My Newton Abbot constituency is conflicted!

Best for Britain tell me to vote Labour: https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001381

Tactical.vote tell me to vote LibDem:
https://tactical.vote/newton-abbot/

and

TacticalVote.co.uk haven’t yet made up their mind!
https://tacticalvote.co.uk/#NewtonAbbot


So whereas I thought I might have to vote LibDem, I’m no longer sure!

There is nothing about Newton Abbot that says Labour to me in any manner for a tactical vote. Lib Dem all the way.

Can I ask you please to be searingly honest? Are you a LibDem voter? Your “nothing […] in any manner” makes me less, not more, likely to believe you. It’s overdone.

Tactical.Vote didn’t even think about it, seemingly. They put LibDem from the word go.

Best for Britain took 3 weeks to weigh it up, carefully, and concluded that I should vote Labour.

From the MORI-IPSOS MRP on Newton Abbot

@Pro_Rata this is exactly what I was saying earlier. Newton Abbot is leaning Conservative but with Labour, not the LibDems, in second

I've been in California for the last couple of weeks. I've been trying to get a sense on the ground of where the Presidential election is heading, and from my entirely unscientific sample of friends and acquaintances in this completely atypical state, I am leaning Trump. Of course the usual caveat is that people don't start to focus on politics till after Labor Day in September, but with that out of the way, my main reasons for thinking so are:

- the economy. People feel the inflation here every time they go to the store. And they complain about it constantly and spontaneously, unlike most political issues. Biden has got all the blame for that, partially undeservedly, but that's politics. His misnamed and misdirected Inflation Reduction Act convinced absolutely nobody.
- Israel/Palestine. As so often with his foreign policy, Biden has picked an unhappy middle course, doing enough to obstruct Israel to annoy its supporters while not helping the Palestinians nearly enough to appease theirs.
- Biden's age. Spontaneously people are mentioning how he is deteriorating more and more. He is even more the butt of jokes than when I was here last time, which is not where a politician wants to be.
- Trump. The 34 guilty verdicts are in a case no-one really cares about, and have angered only Trump's opponents. As none of the other cases look likely to go to trial before the election, and as any sentence in New York will be appealed until well into next year, I don't think the NY DA's indictment has done anything besides give Trump masses of free publicity to energise his supporters. It's completely bizarre and counterintuitive but there we are.

Some dogs that haven't barked in my political discussions with friends: the border, Ukraine, the strength of the economy, China.

Gavin Williamson forecast to get 50% in his new seat of Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge.

Con 50%
Lab 38%
LD 7%
Grn 5%

Andy_JS said:

Gavin Williamson forecast to get 50% in his new seat of Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge.

Con 50%
Lab 38%
LD 7%
Grn 5%

No reform ?

Andy_JS said:

Gavin Williamson forecast to get 50% in his new seat of Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge.

Con 50%
Lab 38%
LD 7%
Grn 5%

That constituency name is so long I assumed it must be in Scotland.

And it's Sir Gavin Williamson, never forget what this great man did to earn his accolades.

Leon said:

Heathener said:

PedestrianRock said:

Leon said:

An absolutely terrifying thread about what an actual Labour government will be like


https://x.com/admcollingwood/status/1803104439697313995

"In November, long before #zeroseats, even as the media was reporting politics as usual, I wrote a thread on why the Tories were heading for an epochal defeat. Now that this is received wisdom, it's time for a new thread, forecasting how Labour will govern. Be very afraid."


I pray that this dude is wrong; I fear in my vittals that he is bang on

Just read that thread. Most of it read linked “Labour have said they will do X…but what if they do Y? That would be terrifying”

Not saying they will stick to the manifesto at all but there wasn’t much in there which seemed credibly scary.

Another subtlety lost on @Leon. He’s just a MAGAloon I’m afraid and loves trying to whip up reaction on here.

Why is a so-called successful writer spending so much of his life on a minor political forum? It doesn’t stack up ...

Why is a world traveller, thermos-hot-water-hoarder, transgender expert, well known TV pundit, hardworking postwoman, friend of Misha Hussein, spa day goer, single mother, Devonshire farmer, AWARD WINNING WRITER, and close friend of Surrey Tories WHO ALSO ACTUALLY HAS A LIFE ACTUALLY - spending so much time on a minor political forum?

Community service?

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

An absolutely terrifying thread about what an actual Labour government will be like


https://x.com/admcollingwood/status/1803104439697313995

"In November, long before #zeroseats, even as the media was reporting politics as usual, I wrote a thread on why the Tories were heading for an epochal defeat. Now that this is received wisdom, it's time for a new thread, forecasting how Labour will govern. Be very afraid."


I pray that this dude is wrong; I fear in my vittals that he is bang on

A lot of this talk about Labour seeking to stop any future government going in a right wing direction seems like scaremongering to me.

No Parliament can bind it's successor. The Tories could have thrown out most or all of the 1997-2010 reforms in the past 14 years if they'd wished but the fact is they chose not to.

It is because they chose not to that they were unable to enact meaningful reform and this has torn them apart.

As unthinkable as it seems for the Human Rights Act, Equality Act and Climate Change Act to be Repealed, it was equally unthinkable that the European Communties Act would ever be repealed not that long ago.

The only pretty well irreversible change you could make is to replace the House of Lords with a Senate elected by PR with elections at different times to general election. Eg six year terms with 1/3 re elected every two years AND abolish the parliament act.

The tory/reform split is essentially between those who would reform or repeal those acts and those who support them and in some cases regdard them as as close to Sacred as any secular document can be.

TimS said:

SouthamObserver said:

TimS said:

SouthamObserver said:

From someone who really knows his stuff ...

Great to see from Ipsos.

This MRP (7-12 June) used random probability sampling, which means this should be a very high quality sample.

The fact it puts Cons a bit higher (25%) and Reform a bit lower (12%) is significant and reinforces my suspicions about RefUK being overstated.

https://x.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1803099004466602227

@SouthamObserver as (I presume) a Southam local can you put me right on a question: my parents live in the Southam & Kenilworth seat. They are planning to vote Lib Dem and are convinced Lib Dems are best placed to beat the Conservative there but tactical websites think otherwise. Your thoughts?

Ex-local lad, now in Sidmouth, East Devon.

Last time, Labour and the LDs finished within a couple of hundred votes of each other, I think, so it's a very tough call to make. Warwick & Leamington, which K&S surrounds, will move from ultra marginal to safe Labour, for example. However, another next door constituency, Stratford-upon-Avon, will be a major LibDem focus, while Labour will be looking to take Rugby. In other words, there are no real pointers. This is a seat where I can see the Tory holding on with well under 50% because of a split opposition. Forced choice - my very uneducated guess is Labour will get closest.

Thanks. Given the tricky choice I expect they are probably best going with their hearts rather than me trying to persuade them otherwise. Their rationale was I think council election results.

Sounds like it might, in a wipeout, also end up with a LL one-two. If there are lots of them it will make for an interesting general election next time.

Just checked the Ipsos MRP and it has Labour in a strong second.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Full Ipsos MRP data here

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls/ipsos-election-mrp

Predicting that my constituency will go red for the first time ever. That will be quite something if it actually happens. The election event of a lifetime. Looking back, the last time this area was represented by someone other than a Tory was 1885.