Normal people don't pay attention to polls like we do, but the 'Reform overtaking Tories' narrative has broken through to the mainstream media - and I suspect social media for the right demographic.
So I suspect the next move for Reform is up rather than down. I still predict a low ceiling - not above 20% - but in any case the direction of travel is just terrible for the Tories.
It hasn’t “broken through to the mainstream media” as much as the mainstream media decided an angle that was exciting and newsy which they could all talk to each other about. There were four (?) polls out yesterday and 3 had the Tories ahead of reform.
The media could have reported that there was a surprise where one of the four polls yesterday had a reform lead over the Tories however the other three had Tories ahead of reform.
But the media have run and focussed on the one poll.
Now it doesn’t absolve Sunak and the Tories of being dismal but how things are reported can have a massive sway - put it this way, if for arguments sake, this one poll snowballed and led to a crazy situation where reform became the opposition most people in the political media would be having the vapours about how terrible it is that so many people are racists, like Brexit all over again.
They won’t however think - “why did we give such prominence to Farage and give him and his party a boost and a status they didn’t warrant just because in our little pathetic game playing politics media world we love a wild story rather than sober politics.”
Commentators have been talking up a crossover for 2 weeks. I don't say that caused it to happen, but many would have been so disappointed had it not.
The funny thing is that it would be absolutely fair if the commentators were disappointed with no crossover because they were reform supporters/thought reform could fix the country but the commentators are probably some of the furthest removed set of people from agreeing with Reform’s politics and would be the first to be devastated at Reform success.
Again they are infinitely more interested in gossip, games, the big story, breathless commentary in a media circle jerk than actually analysing what politicians really mean or want, what manifestos are really offering, what they aren’t saying. The latter is hard work, the former is just having WhatsApp and a contact list from the same politics bubble.
My father was a toolmaker. Started on the bench during the war, became a foreman and ended up a manager of toolmakers. I feel an affinity with Starmer.
The Tories sneer at a genuine working class chap who rose up the ranks to become - probably - the next PM. This current iteration of the Tory Party do not like aspiration and hard work.
Witness the ordure their client media threw over Angela Rayner – a self-made woman who grafted her way to the top.
Grifted Shirley? She had 8 years as a care worker, admirable job of course, got into Unison and was good at machine politics. Let's not get overly dewy eyed
My father was a toolmaker. Started on the bench during the war, became a foreman and ended up a manager of toolmakers. I feel an affinity with Starmer.
You may have inadvertently started a Starmer birther movement demaning to see his birth certificate.
The Tories sneer at a genuine working class chap who rose up the ranks to become - probably - the next PM. This current iteration of the Tory Party do not like aspiration and hard work.
This son of toil has given a leg up, in parliamentary selections, to his fellow working class has he,
No, not quite
It is all SPADS, Quangocrats, think tankers and charidee workers.
Parachuted in. Will move to the constituency if they get elected. Class.
Keir Starmer was a toolmaker’s son And when his candidate would visit, he'd come along When they gathered 'round and started canvassin’ That's when Keir would take me votin’ Through the hustings, we'd go walkin' Then, he'd look into my eyes Lord knows, to my surprise.
The only boy who could ever reach me Was the son of a toolmaker man The only boy who could ever teach me Was the son of a toolmaker man Yes, he was, he was Ooh, yes, he was, uh
According to Guido, Sir Keir's tool reached many during the 1990s.
Normal people don't pay attention to polls like we do, but the 'Reform overtaking Tories' narrative has broken through to the mainstream media - and I suspect social media for the right demographic.
So I suspect the next move for Reform is up rather than down. I still predict a low ceiling - not above 20% - but in any case the direction of travel is just terrible for the Tories.
It hasn’t “broken through to the mainstream media” as much as the mainstream media decided an angle that was exciting and newsy which they could all talk to each other about. There were four (?) polls out yesterday and 3 had the Tories ahead of reform.
The media could have reported that there was a surprise where one of the four polls yesterday had a reform lead over the Tories however the other three had Tories ahead of reform.
But the media have run and focussed on the one poll.
Now it doesn’t absolve Sunak and the Tories of being dismal but how things are reported can have a massive sway - put it this way, if for arguments sake, this one poll snowballed and led to a crazy situation where reform became the opposition most people in the political media would be having the vapours about how terrible it is that so many people are racists, like Brexit all over again.
They won’t however think - “why did we give such prominence to Farage and give him and his party a boost and a status they didn’t warrant just because in our little pathetic game playing politics media world we love a wild story rather than sober politics.”
I wonder if any Labour partisans have ever noticed that the media can have an unfair influence against a major party in an election?
It's the Tories turn, and its their first turn in at least fifty years to get that treatment, so not much sympathy given they have enabled and worked with the press to create this environment in the first place.
An important post, because I do think it is clear the media decided a couple of years or so ago that the Tories had lost and that narrative has been at play now for some time. Like you I don’t have tremendous sympathy given their uselessness and the fact their fall has been a long time coming, but it is clear to me the narrative that has been built.
To repeat, this isn't a standard opinion poll and shouldn't be treated as such. It's an extrapolation from the MRP model which is a different thing.
That's a fair point, and indeed YouGov have stated that the change in their methodology tends to reduce the Labour lead by about 3% (although it was 6% in the poll when they introduced the change) by depressing the Labour VI and boosting the LDs a bit.
Nonetheless Labour's polling is weakening. That weakening would be more apparent but for the parallel Conservative implosion. The best comparison to track changes over the past few weeks is with the YouGov MRP conducted in the week from 24th May which had Lab 43, Con 25, LD 11, Reform 10, Green 7. The latest YouGov (12/13th June) on what they say is the same methodology is Lab 37 (-6), Con 18 (-7), LD 14 (+3), Reform 19 (+9), Green 7 (uc).
I don't think that timing will properly reflect any bounce Labour get from the manifesto launch, whether there is much is a moot point although the LDs clearly got one.
I think Labour are at this point paying the price for being unduly cautious on tax. The consequences are that:
1. Labour cannot properly attack the Tories for the huge package of future austerity they are planning for in public services, because acknowledging those future cuts brings the riposte that Labour haven't set out how they would raise additional tax revenue to avoid them (although neither has any other party apart from the Greens.)
2. It would be far better for Labour to say that they will plug some of the gap by raising taxes in a way they define and which would be reassuring to 95% of the (unaffected) population. Something like capital gains tax and/or say a return to Ed Milliband's mansion tax would do the job just fine because hardly anyone would be worried about paying it. Instead, the Tories are raising the prospect of future unspecified Labour tax rises and because they are unspecified they are potentially of far more concern to the average voter. A bit of populist red meat here would actually be reassuring so long as it doesn't go too far.
The Tories sneer at a genuine working class chap who rose up the ranks to become - probably - the next PM. This current iteration of the Tory Party do not like aspiration and hard work.
Witness the ordure their client media threw over Angela Rayner – a self-made woman who grafted her way to the top.
Not just their client media. Remember Mr Daly asst convener of the C&UP. Flung more shite than the manure spreader in the field round the back of my house, and then claimed complete ignorance of what it was all about.
A Tory MP being completetly ignorant doesn't sound like it needs the word claimed attached.
Normal people don't pay attention to polls like we do, but the 'Reform overtaking Tories' narrative has broken through to the mainstream media - and I suspect social media for the right demographic.
So I suspect the next move for Reform is up rather than down. I still predict a low ceiling - not above 20% - but in any case the direction of travel is just terrible for the Tories.
It hasn’t “broken through to the mainstream media” as much as the mainstream media decided an angle that was exciting and newsy which they could all talk to each other about. There were four (?) polls out yesterday and 3 had the Tories ahead of reform.
The media could have reported that there was a surprise where one of the four polls yesterday had a reform lead over the Tories however the other three had Tories ahead of reform.
But the media have run and focussed on the one poll.
Now it doesn’t absolve Sunak and the Tories of being dismal but how things are reported can have a massive sway - put it this way, if for arguments sake, this one poll snowballed and led to a crazy situation where reform became the opposition most people in the political media would be having the vapours about how terrible it is that so many people are racists, like Brexit all over again.
They won’t however think - “why did we give such prominence to Farage and give him and his party a boost and a status they didn’t warrant just because in our little pathetic game playing politics media world we love a wild story rather than sober politics.”
I wonder if any Labour partisans have ever noticed that the media can have an unfair influence against a major party in an election?
It's the Tories turn, and its their first turn in at least fifty years to get that treatment, so not much sympathy given they have enabled and worked with the press to create this environment in the first place.
Didn't Cameron get pissy about press reporting on the referendum. Seems its not pleasant having buckets of shit thrown over you by the aristo's rags.
Over 4k likes for this comment on the Daily Mail in response to Penny Mordaunt calling Farage a 'Labour enabler':
But Reform have overtaken the Tories in the latest poll. Surely that makes the Tories ‘Labour enablers’, and if they’re that terrified of the consequences of a Labour government, then it’s surely their solemn duty to step down and encourage all their voters to switch to Reform?
"Latest" poll is, of course, four different polls conducted on 12-13th June: Lab 43 Con 19 Ref 16 Lab 37 Con 18 Ref 19 -- this is only one people are talking about Lab 42 Con 18 Ref 17 Lab 43 Con 20 Ref 16
Of course, I understand why: dog bites man man bites dog -- this is the only one people talk about (apart from Leon, for whom dog bites man is bowel-loosening excitement) dog bites man dog bites man
But most newsworthy is not the same as most accurate snapshot of reality. I'll say that again, because it needs to be understood much more widely and instinctively:
Newsworthiness is not the same as accuracy
YouGov are the first to see crossover (and seem to produce higher reform numbers) but others may follow if trends continue (Techne, Redfield and People polling are not far from crossover)
So what is a User Defined Poll? Is Lee Anderson pulling the one with bells on?
User defined poll is where you put in your own national numbers and EC set out the result based on what you input.
Example here of Holborn and St Pancras predicting that SKS will lose his seat. To be fair to Lee Anderson, I don't think he's plucked the numbers from his backside, it looks like what you get if you put the YouGov/Times numbers into Electoral Calculus.
Lee Anderson's numbers are likely to be the single poll that sows RefUK/Con crossover.
He's been talking about that too.
All the other polls than say something else are not mentioned.
Who's door knocking? Me, for the greens in Bristol Central. And there are LOADS out every night. I've no idea whether the numbers we've got door-knocking is something I'm meant to be keeping quiet about, but it's obvious to the competition that we're very active. And it's exciting / inspiring / fun. I'm LOVING this election.
I presume this has been focus-grouped to death and it really helps SKS, or else he wouldn't keep saying it, but it's a bit odd.
Who cares what your Dad or Mum did?
It's you we're interested in.
I'm old enough to remember at least one Tory PM whose parentage and background has been exhaustively trailed in this election. Right down to the presence or absence of Sky TV.
I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?
I'm sure we'd all like to have the election now. Or better still, for it to have been yesterday.
As for the Reform Poll Lead thing... They're probably still (just) behind really. But once that happens, you don't need much noise to give them the occaisonal poll in front.
And that's bad enough.
Has anyone modelled the worst possible RefCon split? The one that costs the Conservatives the most seats without Reform picking up more than a handful?
I see Putin has proposed a basis for a ceasefire which amounts to “give me all your lunch money and I’ll definitely stop punching you”. I can’t work out whether he is so delusional he thinks this approach has any likelihood of being successful or whether he’s so committed to the war that he’s deliberately trolling.
I guess we need starting points. Albeit red lines here that will be light years apart form each other.
I do believe there will need to be some concessions from the Ukraine side, but how this can happen I don't know - certainly I can't imagine any scenario that isn't also somehow up problems for the future (the whole Azov Brigade thing is real).
This war cannot go on forever. It's not about appeasement, it's about stopping people getting killed. Even the vaguest talk of ceasefire, I have to hope is a positive step.
The concession will be dropping the demand for reparations. If any Ukrainian territory or sovereignty is conceded then we only create problems for the future.
To repeat, this isn't a standard opinion poll and shouldn't be treated as such. It's an extrapolation from the MRP model which is a different thing.
It's only a different way of weighting the sample. It's not a fundamental methodological difference.
I'm not the expert some on here are but it's an important nuance, isn't it?
I think the weighting process is critical and it would be helpful (though it'll never happen) to determine how the sample has been weighted and on what criteria.
Are YouGov suggesting other pollsters are over-sampling Labour voters and under-representing LDs and Reform? It's a theory which we'll know more about in three weeks.
The other thing was the level of Don't Knows (15%) which runs well ahead of other pollsters (around 10%).
There have been lots of different ways of weighting the sample in the past. Some posters have used newspaper readership and others not.
I agree that it would be interesting to get into the detail of what the differences are, and see if there's any way to test the validity of the assumptions used. But that's a world away from dismissing the poll as, "not an opinion poll."
Interesting. Ofcourse there's two ways of looking at this ; he's trying to get the RFK vote and help build distrust in institutions by fusing it with the UFO issue. There's plenty of far-right loons as well as reasonable people interested in this issue, and unfortunately that helps to stigmatise for people in the centre.
But there's also another, maybe more unconventional explanation, that I would try and go with. He might well be trying to rope in these kind of topics to encourage distrust in government and attract far-right loons, but he might also simultaneously be talking about genuinely convincing conversations he's had, with military people who might more often be his supporters.
I can't remember who said it on a previous thread, but Trump is like a comedian. He tries out his new material on a test crowd, then sticks with and amplifies the stuff that gets the biggest positive response.
In that way Trump reflects America's id, the impuslive part of the brain driven by base instincts and desires. There is no real Trump, no real belief in anything - just a collection of what an American audience will howl at.
A number of American comedians have made that point. He works in the same way they do, coming up with an idea, then changing the words around each time he says it, until he has something that always hits.
South Park nailed it by portraying his rallies as an Andrew Dice Clay-esque stand up routine - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gfmTXSMsQA (NSFW unless you have headphones on).
I remember the exact moment I realised Trump was going to win, I was conducting a focus group in New Jersey in early 2016, and the topic of Trump came up unprompted, and people started talking about how he was their guy, how he spoke their language, how different he was to conventional politicians. IIRC I bet on him then at 50/1, but also cashed out at 5/1 after the first Presidential debate because I didn't think anyone could take him seriously as president of the free world after that. How wrong I was.
The Tories sneer at a genuine working class chap who rose up the ranks to become - probably - the next PM. This current iteration of the Tory Party do not like aspiration and hard work.
Witness the ordure their client media threw over Angela Rayner – a self-made woman who grafted her way to the top.
Grifted Shirley? She had 8 years as a care worker, admirable job of course, got into Unison and was good at machine politics. Let's not get overly dewy eyed
Whatever gets you through the night
Soft focus romantic reverie. In daylight hours remorseless logic takes over and I like to see claims supported by evidence.
Thanks! The stroke was reasonably serious (4 days completely blotted out from my memory, but apparently I was in hospital), but it's left few physical marks - a tendency to want to sleep in the day now and then. Mentally it's left gaps when I'm tired - I was puzzling over the names of close relatives last night, which seem absolutely clear now - but I'm gradually returning to normal.
I don't know how I missed the news at the time, but a heartfelt welcome back.
I see Putin has proposed a basis for a ceasefire which amounts to “give me all your lunch money and I’ll definitely stop punching you”. I can’t work out whether he is so delusional he thinks this approach has any likelihood of being successful or whether he’s so committed to the war that he’s deliberately trolling.
I guess we need starting points. Albeit red lines here that will be light years apart form each other.
I do believe there will need to be some concessions from the Ukraine side, but how this can happen I don't know - certainly I can't imagine any scenario that isn't also somehow up problems for the future (the whole Azov Brigade thing is real).
This war cannot go on forever. It's not about appeasement, it's about stopping people getting killed. Even the vaguest talk of ceasefire, I have to hope is a positive step.
I deprecate death and destruction of war as much as the next person, but I don’t think that negotiation in this instance is wise. Most people can work out that Putin will use any negotiated agreement as a way to reconstruct his forces and then come back for another slice. I think Ukraine and the allies are correct to reject any approach that gives Putin anything whatsoever. It’s not about appeasement but about a hard headed, but belated, understanding of the character of the person in the Kremlin.
Quite. He'll take what he can. The reason nations belatedly backed Ukraine this time and not over Crimea was recognising how the prior approach did not work and has led to more violence down the line. Slowly but surely nations will forget that lesson if they are not careful.
The 'deal' on this will be initiated by the US, when it decides the current situation cannot last. It will probably be similar to what Putin is suggesting. But it is unlikely to be a real peace agreement, because Russia will use the time to prepare the next attack. So the conflict which began in 2014 continues until such point as a strategic security settlement is reached with Russia. In the end you either destroy Russia, or you reach an agreement with it about the security situation in Europe, those are the two options. If you can't beat it, then the latter is the only option.
I see Putin has proposed a basis for a ceasefire which amounts to “give me all your lunch money and I’ll definitely stop punching you”. I can’t work out whether he is so delusional he thinks this approach has any likelihood of being successful or whether he’s so committed to the war that he’s deliberately trolling.
Angela Rayner is a huge plus for Labour and that’s why the DM and Tories went after her .
If she had been charged that would have been a huge blow to the party and impacted their election chances .
Thankfully that black swan didn’t get off the ground .
What's most impressive about Rayner is how disciplined she is, how good a team player. I strongly suspect that she would have liked to present a more radical manifesto offer (taxing the rich more, a bit more nationalisation etc.), but she has ensured that no chink of light could be exposed between her and Starmer's views. Such loyalty to the collective cause is something she can be rightly proud of.
Rayner never supported Corbyn or his ideas. She is much closer politically to the centre of Labour.
To repeat, this isn't a standard opinion poll and shouldn't be treated as such. It's an extrapolation from the MRP model which is a different thing.
It's only a different way of weighting the sample. It's not a fundamental methodological difference.
I'm not the expert some on here are but it's an important nuance, isn't it?
I think the weighting process is critical and it would be helpful (though it'll never happen) to determine how the sample has been weighted and on what criteria.
Are YouGov suggesting other pollsters are over-sampling Labour voters and under-representing LDs and Reform? It's a theory which we'll know more about in three weeks.
The other thing was the level of Don't Knows (15%) which runs well ahead of other pollsters (around 10%).
There have been lots of different ways of weighting the sample in the past. Some posters have used newspaper readership and others not.
I agree that it would be interesting to get into the detail of what the differences are, and see if there's any way to test the validity of the assumptions used. But that's a world away from dismissing the poll as, "not an opinion poll."
Especially when produced as opinion poll by a member of the BPC
I see Putin has proposed a basis for a ceasefire which amounts to “give me all your lunch money and I’ll definitely stop punching you”. I can’t work out whether he is so delusional he thinks this approach has any likelihood of being successful or whether he’s so committed to the war that he’s deliberately trolling.
I guess we need starting points. Albeit red lines here that will be light years apart form each other.
I do believe there will need to be some concessions from the Ukraine side, but how this can happen I don't know - certainly I can't imagine any scenario that isn't also somehow up problems for the future (the whole Azov Brigade thing is real).
This war cannot go on forever. It's not about appeasement, it's about stopping people getting killed. Even the vaguest talk of ceasefire, I have to hope is a positive step.
I deprecate death and destruction of war as much as the next person, but I don’t think that negotiation in this instance is wise. Most people can work out that Putin will use any negotiated agreement as a way to reconstruct his forces and then come back for another slice. I think Ukraine and the allies are correct to reject any approach that gives Putin anything whatsoever. It’s not about appeasement but about a hard headed, but belated, understanding of the character of the person in the Kremlin.
Quite. He'll take what he can. The reason nations belatedly backed Ukraine this time and not over Crimea was recognising how the prior approach did not work and has led to more violence down the line. Slowly but surely nations will forget that lesson if they are not careful.
The 'deal' on this will be initiated by the US, when it decides the current situation cannot last. It will probably be similar to what Putin is suggesting. But it is unlikely to be a real peace agreement, because Russia will use the time to prepare the next attack. So the conflict which began in 2014 continues until such point as a strategic security settlement is reached with Russia. In the end you either destroy Russia, or you reach an agreement with it about the security situation in Europe, those are the two options. If you can't beat it, then the latter is the only option.
It's avoiding that scenario which explains why Ukraine has been so keen to put all these security agreements to paper.
Then, even if the election of Trump turns off the tap of US support, there's a structure of agreements with other countries so that Ukraine can fight on.
I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?
I'm a great-Grandson of an Austro-Hungarian count (who probably greatly enjoyed was ruined by whoring and gambling). Do I get my silver mine back?
Strange, I’m the son of count, don’t know where from though but whenever I asked my mother who my father was she would tell me he was a massive count. Must be where I get my build from I suppose.
Thanks! The stroke was reasonably serious (4 days completely blotted out from my memory, but apparently I was in hospital), but it's left few physical marks - a tendency to want to sleep in the day now and then. Mentally it's left gaps when I'm tired - I was puzzling over the names of close relatives last night, which seem absolutely clear now - but I'm gradually returning to normal.
When I was a solicitor the medical records use to have NFF on them which stood for Normal for Fife. Dare I ask if there is an equivalent?
Seriously, its good to see you have made a good recovery.
I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?
I'm sure we'd all like to have the election now. Or better still, for it to have been yesterday.
As for the Reform Poll Lead thing... They're probably still (just) behind really. But once that happens, you don't need much noise to give them the occaisonal poll in front.
And that's bad enough.
Has anyone modelled the worst possible RefCon split? The one that costs the Conservatives the most seats without Reform picking up more than a handful?
Roughly as it is now, I think, unless Reform are really charging ahead in places like East Anglia, the Thames Estuary, Durham, and the Conservatives are faring better in Blue Wall seats.
Hertsmere is a good example. It went 62% Conservative to 21% Labour in 2024. One can assume the combined Conservative/Reform share would be 52% on current polling, while Labour would be on about 30%. If the Conservative and Reform shares split evenly, Labour would edge it.
If the Conservatives recover back into the mid twenties, they probably save a lot of seats. If Reform advance into the mid twenties, they gain them.
I'm the son of someone who changed jobs (and moved house) every 5 years, so i wouldn't know how to categorise what their principal profession was.
I think they were a civil engineer at the time if my birth, if that is what counts.
It's the moment of fertilisation that counts. That's when your DNA is made. Even if they later change jobs, it's fixed.
My mother is a seamstress and my father was a cloth wholesaler. It's in my jeans.
I find the idea of the profession being written down somewhat odd. Do people have professions anymore? If you change jobs entirely should the birth certificate get updated?
Thanks! The stroke was reasonably serious (4 days completely blotted out from my memory, but apparently I was in hospital), but it's left few physical marks - a tendency to want to sleep in the day now and then. Mentally it's left gaps when I'm tired - I was puzzling over the names of close relatives last night, which seem absolutely clear now - but I'm gradually returning to normal.
He forgot to post a tip on here so we could all pile in.
"But the Prime Minister’s position is said to be that he is happy to co-operate if needed and urges others to do likewise if requested to do so by those investigating."
Sounds like a throwing to the wolves to me, nothing to stop him saying Nobody knew except me (if that were true).
I'm the son of someone who changed jobs (and moved house) every 5 years, so i wouldn't know how to categorise what their principal profession was.
I think they were a civil engineer at the time if my birth, if that is what counts.
It's the moment of fertilisation that counts. That's when your DNA is made. Even if they later change jobs, it's fixed.
My mother is a seamstress and my father was a cloth wholesaler. It's in my jeans.
I find the idea of the profession being written down somewhat odd. Do people have professions anymore? If you change jobs entirely should the birth certificate get updated?
My grandfather became a social documentarist and a social author from being a surgeon.
I think he was generally thought of as "odd", or a dropout having no profession, by his class peers and family.
I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?
I'm the grandson of a surgeon-filmmaker, and descended from of a couple of 19th century Liberal MP's.
I also demand an election in my image.
A surgeon-filmmaker? ... gosh, exotic.
"Cut!"
Anyone can shout cut! The hard part is splicing things together in the edit suite.
Reminds me of the old joke - what do you get when you cross a goat with an octopus? Kicked off your PhD with a reprimand from the university ethics committee...
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
For me that would be a red line. I am bracing myself to vote Tory but I will not vote for Reform or anyone who does a deal with them.
Yes, about a third of those Tory voters and members still remaining like you would go LD if any deal or merger with Reform, though the majority would join up with Farage's party.
Reform would though also add a few of the white working class Leave voters they have been picking up from Labour who never voted Tory before Boris and likely never would again
Keir Starmer was a toolmaker’s son And when his candidate would visit, he'd come along When they gathered 'round and started canvassin’ That's when Keir would take me votin’ Through the hustings, we'd go walkin' Then, he'd look into my eyes Lord knows, to my surprise.
The only boy who could ever reach me Was the son of a toolmaker man The only boy who could ever teach me Was the son of a toolmaker man Yes, he was, he was Ooh, yes, he was, uh
Somewhat better than my effort from a month or two back. Damn you
I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?
I'm the grandson of a surgeon-filmmaker, and descended from of a couple of 19th century Liberal MP's.
I also demand an election in my image.
A surgeon-filmmaker? ... gosh, exotic.
"Cut!"
Anyone can shout cut! The hard part is splicing things together in the edit suite.
Reminds me of the old joke - what do you get when you cross a goat with an octopus? Kicked off your PhD with a reprimand from the university ethics committee...
No - you get hired by a Chinese lab, next to a wet market.
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
Head of BBC “which fucking idiots gave this Farage guy all the airtime?”
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
It is rather early for such speculation. Reform have only been ahead in a single poll, and that is a survey that many PBers have queried because it is an MRP extrapolation rather than a poll in the classic sense.
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
Yes as Rishi and Starmer wouldn't turn up if Farage was allowed in.
Farage has been in 2 debates with the LDs, Greens, SNP etc as well as Mordaunt and Rayner and if you included him you would have to add them too given they have MPs already
Although Farage is twisting things, I think there is a bit of a fair point here.
The 7 way debates are just too many people, 3-4 is the max you can have. I am not sure why SNP, PC, have to be invited to every national debate and green's are polling very low amount.
Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, Reform for at least one debate is fair.
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
It's very hard to come up with an objective set of criteria that is realistic and also allows for change.
I suspect, though, that it would be Sunak and Starmer who would insist on Farage not being invited to the debate, and the BBC would hide behind Reform's pathetic tally of existing councillors and MPs to explain their non-participation.
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
BBC putting Farage on QT is all about the clickbait. Same as putting all the numpty celebs on. It stopped being a serious show ages ago. Most weeks is it pretty unknown MPs from Tory and Labour, occasional Lib Dem, then the rest of the panel made up with journalists and celebs.
For me that would be a red line. I am bracing myself to vote Tory but I will not vote for Reform or anyone who does a deal with them.
Yes, about a third of those Tory voters and members still remaining like you would go LD if any deal or merger with Reform, though the majority would join up with Farage's party.
Reform would though also add a few of the white working class Leave voters they have been picking up from Labour who never voted Tory before Boris and likely never would again
One interesting question for post election is about the future of the LDs. Their activists have always been quite left wing, but if they elect a bunch of new MPs in blue wall seats then those MPs could well be centrist, if not slightly centre-right. If the Tories suffer an ELE, we could also see a split where councillors and activitsts on the right go to Reform, while the centrists move to LD.
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
Indeed - there's also the LDs to consider who are not far behind the Tories currently
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
It's very hard to come up with an objective set of criteria that is realistic and also allows for change.
I suspect, though, that it would be Sunak and Starmer who would insist on Farage not being invited to the debate, and the BBC would hide behind Reform's pathetic tally of existing councillors and MPs to explain their non-participation.
They could also bill it as incumbent v nearest challenger.
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?
I'm the grandson of a surgeon-filmmaker, and descended from of a couple of 19th century Liberal MP's.
I also demand an election in my image.
A surgeon-filmmaker? ... gosh, exotic.
"Cut!"
Anyone can shout cut! The hard part is splicing things together in the edit suite.
Reminds me of the old joke - what do you get when you cross a goat with an octopus? Kicked off your PhD with a reprimand from the university ethics committee...
Yes, that's more the 'snip', isn't it. Massive synergy between the 2 professions when you think about it. Although I wouldn't want Tarantino taking my appendix out.
Although Farage is twisting things, I think there is a bit of a fair point here.
The 7 way debates are just too many people, 3-4 is the max you can have. I am not sure why SNP, PC, have to be invited to every national debate and green's are polling very low amount.
Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, Reform for at least one debate is fair.
Having the SNP and PC there really distorts things because they're not putting forward a programme of government for the UK.
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
There's an argument that they should, for the main debate, only include leaders with a realistic chance of being PM after the election.
But I guess Starmer debating himself might not draw in the crowds
The Tories sneer at a genuine working class chap who rose up the ranks to become - probably - the next PM. This current iteration of the Tory Party do not like aspiration and hard work.
Although Farage is twisting things, I think there is a bit of a fair point here.
The 7 way debates are just too many people, 3-4 is the max you can have. I am not sure why SNP, PC, have to be invited to every national debate and green's are polling very low amount.
Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, Reform for at least one debate is fair.
A debate with those four - with the leaders of each - would be far more interesting.
Two-way debates are too linear back and forth.
More people offers the chance for a more dynamic debate, but seven is clearly far too many.
Reform are polling close to the Tories. The Lib Dems on several projections could end up with a similar number of seats to the Tories. I think it'd be fair to have a debate with all the potential major, national parties present.
(SNP only fights 50-odd seats, PC only 30-odd and Greens are only competitive in about two, with no chance of a Reform-style breakthrough this time).
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
Indeed - there's also the LDs to consider who are not far behind the Tories currently
Realistically the TV companies can't rearrange any of the debates on the basis of polls. Which do you use for starters? The most recent? The average over a month? A year? Farage "demanding" to be included is as ridiculous as his claim that suddenly Starmer is PM and he's leader of the opposition based on a single poll
Sunak and the Tories should have stomped on this clown ages ago. I wonder if the treasury will be going through the Reform Manifesto and telling us how much tax will rise to pay for it?
Comments
Again they are infinitely more interested in gossip, games, the big story, breathless commentary in a media circle jerk than actually analysing what politicians really mean or want, what manifestos are really offering, what they aren’t saying. The latter is hard work, the former is just having WhatsApp and a contact list from the same politics bubble.
No, not quite
It is all SPADS, Quangocrats, think tankers and charidee workers.
Parachuted in. Will move to the constituency if they get elected. Class.
He has clearly forgotten where he came from.
Nonetheless Labour's polling is weakening. That weakening would be more apparent but for the parallel Conservative implosion. The best comparison to track changes over the past few weeks is with the YouGov MRP conducted in the week from 24th May which had Lab 43, Con 25, LD 11, Reform 10, Green 7. The latest YouGov (12/13th June) on what they say is the same methodology is Lab 37 (-6), Con 18 (-7), LD 14 (+3), Reform 19 (+9), Green 7 (uc).
I don't think that timing will properly reflect any bounce Labour get from the manifesto launch, whether there is much is a moot point although the LDs clearly got one.
I think Labour are at this point paying the price for being unduly cautious on tax. The consequences are that:
1. Labour cannot properly attack the Tories for the huge package of future austerity they are planning for in public services, because acknowledging those future cuts brings the riposte that Labour haven't set out how they would raise additional tax revenue to avoid them (although neither has any other party apart from the Greens.)
2. It would be far better for Labour to say that they will plug some of the gap by raising taxes in a way they define and which would be reassuring to 95% of the (unaffected) population. Something like capital gains tax and/or say a return to Ed Milliband's mansion tax would do the job just fine because hardly anyone would be worried about paying it. Instead, the Tories are raising the prospect of future unspecified Labour tax rises and because they are unspecified they are potentially of far more concern to the average voter. A bit of populist red meat here would actually be reassuring so long as it doesn't go too far.
Look after yourself.
He's been talking about that too.
All the other polls than say something else are not mentioned.
Lib Dem tactics
Who cares what your Dad or Mum did?
It's you we're interested in.
Can I have my election now please?
This shows he's a humble working class chap.
A few more Ashfield Independent placards.
I also demand an election in my image.
As for the Reform Poll Lead thing... They're probably still (just) behind really. But once that happens, you don't need much noise to give them the occaisonal poll in front.
And that's bad enough.
Has anyone modelled the worst possible RefCon split? The one that costs the Conservatives the most seats without Reform picking up more than a handful?
I agree that it would be interesting to get into the detail of what the differences are, and see if there's any way to test the validity of the assumptions used. But that's a world away from dismissing the poll as, "not an opinion poll."
My father was a Precision Grinder.
And whatever is your doctors' advice, follow it.
Propaganda 101.
Zuma left out in the cold; predictably he now has a proper cob on about it.
https://x.com/vucciria79/status/1801533359085981935
PM is understood to have been contacted earlier this week about Craig Williams being the subject of an investigation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/14/rishi-sunak-gambling-commission-craig-williams-bet-election/
I think they were a civil engineer at the time if my birth, if that is what counts.
He forgot to post a tip on here so we could all pile in.
Then, even if the election of Trump turns off the tap of US support, there's a structure of agreements with other countries so that Ukraine can fight on.
They do not intend to give up.
My mother is a seamstress and my father was a cloth wholesaler. It's in my jeans.
Dad used to operate presses at GEC as was, stamping out tools.
In order of precedence that puts me above a Marquis, but below a toolmaker.
Seriously, its good to see you have made a good recovery.
55% would also back Farage receiving the Conservative whip if he is elected as an MP in Clacton, again 37% opposed.
However 46% believe the party should focus on voters lost to Labour and the LDs to 42% on voters lost to Reform
https://conservativehome.com/2024/06/14/our-survey-members-back-a-reform-deal-and-giving-farage-the-whip-but-not-shifting-the-campaign-to-the-right/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Friday 14th June 2024&utm_content=Friday 14th June 2024+CID_80462b415161772952d63e7d95d989a0&utm_source=Daily Email&utm_term=Our survey Members back a Reform deal and giving Farage the whip - but not shifting the campaign to the right
Hertsmere is a good example. It went 62% Conservative to 21% Labour in 2024. One can assume the combined Conservative/Reform share would be 52% on current polling, while Labour would be on about 30%. If the Conservative and Reform shares split evenly, Labour would edge it.
If the Conservatives recover back into the mid twenties, they probably save a lot of seats. If Reform advance into the mid twenties, they gain them.
"Cut!"
Sounds like a throwing to the wolves to me, nothing to stop him saying Nobody knew except me (if that were true).
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
By the way, did you know they ran a pharmacy?
I think he was generally thought of as "odd", or a dropout having no profession, by his class peers and family.
Reminds me of the old joke - what do you get when you cross a goat with an octopus? Kicked off your PhD with a reprimand from the university ethics committee...
Way down in New Orleans
After the revelation about his hardships as a boy he will hence forth be known as
No dishy Rishi.
End of announcement
A little bit cerebral and forbidding at times, but also very humane, I think, looking at his output.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
Reform would though also add a few of the white working class Leave voters they have been picking up from Labour who never voted Tory before Boris and likely never would again
Quite droll.
Farage has been in 2 debates with the LDs, Greens, SNP etc as well as Mordaunt and Rayner and if you included him you would have to add them too given they have MPs already
The 7 way debates are just too many people, 3-4 is the max you can have. I am not sure why SNP, PC, have to be invited to every national debate and green's are polling very low amount.
Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, Reform for at least one debate is fair.
I suspect, though, that it would be Sunak and Starmer who would insist on Farage not being invited to the debate, and the BBC would hide behind Reform's pathetic tally of existing councillors and MPs to explain their non-participation.
Cant really have a 1st vs 4th only debate
But I guess Starmer debating himself might not draw in the crowds
And John Kettley was a weatherman....
No? That wasn't it?
Two-way debates are too linear back and forth.
More people offers the chance for a more dynamic debate, but seven is clearly far too many.
Reform are polling close to the Tories. The Lib Dems on several projections could end up with a similar number of seats to the Tories. I think it'd be fair to have a debate with all the potential major, national parties present.
(SNP only fights 50-odd seats, PC only 30-odd and Greens are only competitive in about two, with no chance of a Reform-style breakthrough this time).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cpvvl1xppdgt
The Tartan Army deserve our support.
Which do you use for starters? The most recent? The average over a month? A year?
Farage "demanding" to be included is as ridiculous as his claim that suddenly Starmer is PM and he's leader of the opposition based on a single poll
Sunak and the Tories should have stomped on this clown ages ago.
I wonder if the treasury will be going through the Reform Manifesto and telling us how much tax will rise to pay for it?