Keir was the toolmaker’s son – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Whatever gets you through the nightTweedledee said:
Grifted Shirley? She had 8 years as a care worker, admirable job of course, got into Unison and was good at machine politics. Let's not get overly dewy eyedAnabobazina said:
Witness the ordure their client media threw over Angela Rayner – a self-made woman who grafted her way to the top.BatteryCorrectHorse said:The Tories sneer at a genuine working class chap who rose up the ranks to become - probably - the next PM. This current iteration of the Tory Party do not like aspiration and hard work.
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You may have inadvertently started a Starmer birther movement demaning to see his birth certificate.Barnesian said:
My father was a toolmaker. Started on the bench during the war, became a foreman and ended up a manager of toolmakers. I feel an affinity with Starmer.northern_monkey said:Blessed are the
cheesemakerstoolmakers
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This son of toil has given a leg up, in parliamentary selections, to his fellow working class has he,BatteryCorrectHorse said:The Tories sneer at a genuine working class chap who rose up the ranks to become - probably - the next PM. This current iteration of the Tory Party do not like aspiration and hard work.
No, not quite
It is all SPADS, Quangocrats, think tankers and charidee workers.
Parachuted in. Will move to the constituency if they get elected. Class.
He has clearly forgotten where he came from.0 -
According to Guido, Sir Keir's tool reached many during the 1990s.Fairliered said:Keir Starmer was a toolmaker’s son
And when his candidate would visit, he'd come along
When they gathered 'round and started canvassin’
That's when Keir would take me votin’
Through the hustings, we'd go walkin'
Then, he'd look into my eyes
Lord knows, to my surprise.
The only boy who could ever reach me
Was the son of a toolmaker man
The only boy who could ever teach me
Was the son of a toolmaker man
Yes, he was, he was
Ooh, yes, he was, uh1 -
An important post, because I do think it is clear the media decided a couple of years or so ago that the Tories had lost and that narrative has been at play now for some time. Like you I don’t have tremendous sympathy given their uselessness and the fact their fall has been a long time coming, but it is clear to me the narrative that has been built.noneoftheabove said:
I wonder if any Labour partisans have ever noticed that the media can have an unfair influence against a major party in an election?boulay said:
It hasn’t “broken through to the mainstream media” as much as the mainstream media decided an angle that was exciting and newsy which they could all talk to each other about. There were four (?) polls out yesterday and 3 had the Tories ahead of reform.Ratters said:Normal people don't pay attention to polls like we do, but the 'Reform overtaking Tories' narrative has broken through to the mainstream media - and I suspect social media for the right demographic.
So I suspect the next move for Reform is up rather than down. I still predict a low ceiling - not above 20% - but in any case the direction of travel is just terrible for the Tories.
The media could have reported that there was a surprise where one of the four polls yesterday had a reform lead over the Tories however the other three had Tories ahead of reform.
But the media have run and focussed on the one poll.
Now it doesn’t absolve Sunak and the Tories of being dismal but how things are reported can have a massive sway - put it this way, if for arguments sake, this one poll snowballed and led to a crazy situation where reform became the opposition most people in the political media would be having the vapours about how terrible it is that so many people are racists, like Brexit all over again.
They won’t however think - “why did we give such prominence to Farage and give him and his party a boost and a status they didn’t warrant just because in our little pathetic game playing politics media world we love a wild story rather than sober politics.”
It's the Tories turn, and its their first turn in at least fifty years to get that treatment, so not much sympathy given they have enabled and worked with the press to create this environment in the first place.0 -
That's a fair point, and indeed YouGov have stated that the change in their methodology tends to reduce the Labour lead by about 3% (although it was 6% in the poll when they introduced the change) by depressing the Labour VI and boosting the LDs a bit.stodge said:Afternoon all
Sorry to carry this over FPT but just to mention to @TSE and others the wording in the YouGov data tables:
Westminster Voting Intention
[Headline voting intention projected by YouGov MRP model]
To repeat, this isn't a standard opinion poll and shouldn't be treated as such. It's an extrapolation from the MRP model which is a different thing.
Nonetheless Labour's polling is weakening. That weakening would be more apparent but for the parallel Conservative implosion. The best comparison to track changes over the past few weeks is with the YouGov MRP conducted in the week from 24th May which had Lab 43, Con 25, LD 11, Reform 10, Green 7. The latest YouGov (12/13th June) on what they say is the same methodology is Lab 37 (-6), Con 18 (-7), LD 14 (+3), Reform 19 (+9), Green 7 (uc).
I don't think that timing will properly reflect any bounce Labour get from the manifesto launch, whether there is much is a moot point although the LDs clearly got one.
I think Labour are at this point paying the price for being unduly cautious on tax. The consequences are that:
1. Labour cannot properly attack the Tories for the huge package of future austerity they are planning for in public services, because acknowledging those future cuts brings the riposte that Labour haven't set out how they would raise additional tax revenue to avoid them (although neither has any other party apart from the Greens.)
2. It would be far better for Labour to say that they will plug some of the gap by raising taxes in a way they define and which would be reassuring to 95% of the (unaffected) population. Something like capital gains tax and/or say a return to Ed Milliband's mansion tax would do the job just fine because hardly anyone would be worried about paying it. Instead, the Tories are raising the prospect of future unspecified Labour tax rises and because they are unspecified they are potentially of far more concern to the average voter. A bit of populist red meat here would actually be reassuring so long as it doesn't go too far.
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A Tory MP being completetly ignorant doesn't sound like it needs the word claimed attached.Carnyx said:
Not just their client media. Remember Mr Daly asst convener of the C&UP. Flung more shite than the manure spreader in the field round the back of my house, and then claimed complete ignorance of what it was all about.Anabobazina said:
Witness the ordure their client media threw over Angela Rayner – a self-made woman who grafted her way to the top.BatteryCorrectHorse said:The Tories sneer at a genuine working class chap who rose up the ranks to become - probably - the next PM. This current iteration of the Tory Party do not like aspiration and hard work.
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Didn't Cameron get pissy about press reporting on the referendum. Seems its not pleasant having buckets of shit thrown over you by the aristo's rags.noneoftheabove said:
I wonder if any Labour partisans have ever noticed that the media can have an unfair influence against a major party in an election?boulay said:
It hasn’t “broken through to the mainstream media” as much as the mainstream media decided an angle that was exciting and newsy which they could all talk to each other about. There were four (?) polls out yesterday and 3 had the Tories ahead of reform.Ratters said:Normal people don't pay attention to polls like we do, but the 'Reform overtaking Tories' narrative has broken through to the mainstream media - and I suspect social media for the right demographic.
So I suspect the next move for Reform is up rather than down. I still predict a low ceiling - not above 20% - but in any case the direction of travel is just terrible for the Tories.
The media could have reported that there was a surprise where one of the four polls yesterday had a reform lead over the Tories however the other three had Tories ahead of reform.
But the media have run and focussed on the one poll.
Now it doesn’t absolve Sunak and the Tories of being dismal but how things are reported can have a massive sway - put it this way, if for arguments sake, this one poll snowballed and led to a crazy situation where reform became the opposition most people in the political media would be having the vapours about how terrible it is that so many people are racists, like Brexit all over again.
They won’t however think - “why did we give such prominence to Farage and give him and his party a boost and a status they didn’t warrant just because in our little pathetic game playing politics media world we love a wild story rather than sober politics.”
It's the Tories turn, and its their first turn in at least fifty years to get that treatment, so not much sympathy given they have enabled and worked with the press to create this environment in the first place.1 -
YouGov are the first to see crossover (and seem to produce higher reform numbers) but others may follow if trends continue (Techne, Redfield and People polling are not far from crossover)Farooq said:
"Latest" poll is, of course, four different polls conducted on 12-13th June:williamglenn said:Over 4k likes for this comment on the Daily Mail in response to Penny Mordaunt calling Farage a 'Labour enabler':
But Reform have overtaken the Tories in the latest poll. Surely that makes the Tories ‘Labour enablers’, and if they’re that terrified of the consequences of a Labour government, then it’s surely their solemn duty to step down and encourage all their voters to switch to Reform?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13528353/Tories-Penny-Mordaunt-brands-Nigel-Farage-Labour-enabler-warns-hell-make-easier-Keir-Starmer-PM-Reform-UK-leader-hits-says-Conservatives-deceived-voters-migration.html
Lab 43 Con 19 Ref 16
Lab 37 Con 18 Ref 19 -- this is only one people are talking about
Lab 42 Con 18 Ref 17
Lab 43 Con 20 Ref 16
Of course, I understand why:
dog bites man
man bites dog -- this is the only one people talk about (apart from Leon, for whom dog bites man is bowel-loosening excitement)
dog bites man
dog bites man
But most newsworthy is not the same as most accurate snapshot of reality.
I'll say that again, because it needs to be understood much more widely and instinctively:
Newsworthiness is not the same as accuracy0 -
FPT:
Lee Anderson's numbers are likely to be the single poll that sows RefUK/Con crossover.DM_Andy said:
User defined poll is where you put in your own national numbers and EC set out the result based on what you input.MattW said:Ashfield Electoral Calculus projections now have Lab equal with Reform in likelihood of victory.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Ashfield
Mr Anderson is claiming that Reform are ahead, but that is using something called a "User Defined Poll" at electoral calculus, whatever that is.
https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1801536122834596125
So what is a User Defined Poll? Is Lee Anderson pulling the one with bells on?
Example here of Holborn and St Pancras predicting that SKS will lose his seat.
To be fair to Lee Anderson, I don't think he's plucked the numbers from his backside, it looks like what you get if you put the YouGov/Times numbers into Electoral Calculus.
He's been talking about that too.
All the other polls than say something else are not mentioned.
Lib Dem tactics . 0 -
I presume this has been focus-grouped to death and it really helps SKS, or else he wouldn't keep saying it, but it's a bit odd.
Who cares what your Dad or Mum did?
It's you we're interested in.0 -
I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?2 -
Who's door knocking? Me, for the greens in Bristol Central. And there are LOADS out every night. I've no idea whether the numbers we've got door-knocking is something I'm meant to be keeping quiet about, but it's obvious to the competition that we're very active. And it's exciting / inspiring / fun. I'm LOVING this election.9
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It started because when he became leader voters didn't like he was a knight/thought he was an aristo.Casino_Royale said:I presume this has been focus-grouped to death and it really helps SKS, or else he wouldn't keep saying it, but it's a bit odd.
Who cares what your Dad or Mum did?
It's you we're interested in.
This shows he's a humble working class chap.0 -
Just been to view a Brompton.
A few more Ashfield Independent placards.0 -
I'm old enough to remember at least one Tory PM whose parentage and background has been exhaustively trailed in this election. Right down to the presence or absence of Sky TV.Casino_Royale said:I presume this has been focus-grouped to death and it really helps SKS, or else he wouldn't keep saying it, but it's a bit odd.
Who cares what your Dad or Mum did?
It's you we're interested in.1 -
I'm the grandson of a surgeon-filmmaker, and descended from of a couple of 19th century Liberal MP's.Casino_Royale said:I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?
I also demand an election in my image.3 -
I'm sure we'd all like to have the election now. Or better still, for it to have been yesterday.Casino_Royale said:I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?
As for the Reform Poll Lead thing... They're probably still (just) behind really. But once that happens, you don't need much noise to give them the occaisonal poll in front.
And that's bad enough.
Has anyone modelled the worst possible RefCon split? The one that costs the Conservatives the most seats without Reform picking up more than a handful?1 -
The concession will be dropping the demand for reparations. If any Ukrainian territory or sovereignty is conceded then we only create problems for the future.Ghedebrav said:
I guess we need starting points. Albeit red lines here that will be light years apart form each other.ToryJim said:I see Putin has proposed a basis for a ceasefire which amounts to “give me all your lunch money and I’ll definitely stop punching you”. I can’t work out whether he is so delusional he thinks this approach has any likelihood of being successful or whether he’s so committed to the war that he’s deliberately trolling.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/russias-putin-outlines-conditions-for-peace-talks-with-ukraine.html
I do believe there will need to be some concessions from the Ukraine side, but how this can happen I don't know - certainly I can't imagine any scenario that isn't also somehow up problems for the future (the whole Azov Brigade thing is real).
This war cannot go on forever. It's not about appeasement, it's about stopping people getting killed. Even the vaguest talk of ceasefire, I have to hope is a positive step.1 -
The Lib Dem leaflets in Stratford have "Labour can't win here" barcharts on them2
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There have been lots of different ways of weighting the sample in the past. Some posters have used newspaper readership and others not.stodge said:
I'm not the expert some on here are but it's an important nuance, isn't it?LostPassword said:
It's only a different way of weighting the sample. It's not a fundamental methodological difference.stodge said:Afternoon all
Sorry to carry this over FPT but just to mention to @TSE and others the wording in the YouGov data tables:
Westminster Voting Intention
[Headline voting intention projected by YouGov MRP model]
To repeat, this isn't a standard opinion poll and shouldn't be treated as such. It's an extrapolation from the MRP model which is a different thing.
I think the weighting process is critical and it would be helpful (though it'll never happen) to determine how the sample has been weighted and on what criteria.
Are YouGov suggesting other pollsters are over-sampling Labour voters and under-representing LDs and Reform? It's a theory which we'll know more about in three weeks.
The other thing was the level of Don't Knows (15%) which runs well ahead of other pollsters (around 10%).
I agree that it would be interesting to get into the detail of what the differences are, and see if there's any way to test the validity of the assumptions used. But that's a world away from dismissing the poll as, "not an opinion poll."0 -
I am one of 15 siblings. We were all born at 6.38am on the 14th April, exactly one year apart.
My father was a Precision Grinder.18 -
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No, you're still right about that.kyf_100 said:
South Park nailed it by portraying his rallies as an Andrew Dice Clay-esque stand up routine - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gfmTXSMsQA (NSFW unless you have headphones on).Sandpit said:
A number of American comedians have made that point. He works in the same way they do, coming up with an idea, then changing the words around each time he says it, until he has something that always hits.kyf_100 said:
I can't remember who said it on a previous thread, but Trump is like a comedian. He tries out his new material on a test crowd, then sticks with and amplifies the stuff that gets the biggest positive response.WhisperingOracle said:
Interesting. Ofcourse there's two ways of looking at this ; he's trying to get the RFK vote and help build distrust in institutions by fusing it with the UFO issue. There's plenty of far-right loons as well as reasonable people interested in this issue, and unfortunately that helps to stigmatise for people in the centre.Leon said:
It is well done and funnykyf_100 said:
These mostly look more like errors caused by the autocue going too fast, or the print being too small to read.Leon said:Trump attack ad on Biden's senility. It is cruelly funny
But I inagine Biden could do exactly the same for Trump
https://www.instagram.com/realdonaldtrump/reel/C8LGmVhMvZe/
The clips of Biden just staring off into space, zoning out, trying to sit down when there isn't a chair, etc, are far more devastating IMHO.
The guy is clearly past it, but then again, as you point out, so is Trump.
This is also interesting. Trump was - quite notably - the one living president who has always scoffed at the idea of UAPs/UFOs
He is changing his tune
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1801379710406128079
But there's also another, maybe more unconventional explanation, that I would try and go with. He might well be trying to rope in these kind of topics to encourage distrust in government and attract far-right loons, but he might also simultaneously be talking about genuinely convincing conversations he's had, with military people who might more often be his supporters.
In that way Trump reflects America's id, the impuslive part of the brain driven by base instincts and desires. There is no real Trump, no real belief in anything - just a collection of what an American audience will howl at.
I remember the exact moment I realised Trump was going to win, I was conducting a focus group in New Jersey in early 2016, and the topic of Trump came up unprompted, and people started talking about how he was their guy, how he spoke their language, how different he was to conventional politicians. IIRC I bet on him then at 50/1, but also cashed out at 5/1 after the first Presidential debate because I didn't think anyone could take him seriously as president of the free world after that. How wrong I was.3 -
Soft focus romantic reverie. In daylight hours remorseless logic takes over and I like to see claims supported by evidence.Anabobazina said:
Whatever gets you through the nightTweedledee said:
Grifted Shirley? She had 8 years as a care worker, admirable job of course, got into Unison and was good at machine politics. Let's not get overly dewy eyedAnabobazina said:
Witness the ordure their client media threw over Angela Rayner – a self-made woman who grafted her way to the top.BatteryCorrectHorse said:The Tories sneer at a genuine working class chap who rose up the ranks to become - probably - the next PM. This current iteration of the Tory Party do not like aspiration and hard work.
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I don't know how I missed the news at the time, but a heartfelt welcome back.NickPalmer said:FPT
Thanks! The stroke was reasonably serious (4 days completely blotted out from my memory, but apparently I was in hospital), but it's left few physical marks - a tendency to want to sleep in the day now and then. Mentally it's left gaps when I'm tired - I was puzzling over the names of close relatives last night, which seem absolutely clear now - but I'm gradually returning to normal.
And whatever is your doctors' advice, follow it.
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The 'deal' on this will be initiated by the US, when it decides the current situation cannot last. It will probably be similar to what Putin is suggesting. But it is unlikely to be a real peace agreement, because Russia will use the time to prepare the next attack. So the conflict which began in 2014 continues until such point as a strategic security settlement is reached with Russia. In the end you either destroy Russia, or you reach an agreement with it about the security situation in Europe, those are the two options. If you can't beat it, then the latter is the only option.kle4 said:
Quite. He'll take what he can. The reason nations belatedly backed Ukraine this time and not over Crimea was recognising how the prior approach did not work and has led to more violence down the line. Slowly but surely nations will forget that lesson if they are not careful.ToryJim said:
I deprecate death and destruction of war as much as the next person, but I don’t think that negotiation in this instance is wise. Most people can work out that Putin will use any negotiated agreement as a way to reconstruct his forces and then come back for another slice. I think Ukraine and the allies are correct to reject any approach that gives Putin anything whatsoever. It’s not about appeasement but about a hard headed, but belated, understanding of the character of the person in the Kremlin.Ghedebrav said:
I guess we need starting points. Albeit red lines here that will be light years apart form each other.ToryJim said:I see Putin has proposed a basis for a ceasefire which amounts to “give me all your lunch money and I’ll definitely stop punching you”. I can’t work out whether he is so delusional he thinks this approach has any likelihood of being successful or whether he’s so committed to the war that he’s deliberately trolling.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/russias-putin-outlines-conditions-for-peace-talks-with-ukraine.html
I do believe there will need to be some concessions from the Ukraine side, but how this can happen I don't know - certainly I can't imagine any scenario that isn't also somehow up problems for the future (the whole Azov Brigade thing is real).
This war cannot go on forever. It's not about appeasement, it's about stopping people getting killed. Even the vaguest talk of ceasefire, I have to hope is a positive step.1 -
It's just so that he can say Ukraine rejected his 'peace' offer.ToryJim said:I see Putin has proposed a basis for a ceasefire which amounts to “give me all your lunch money and I’ll definitely stop punching you”. I can’t work out whether he is so delusional he thinks this approach has any likelihood of being successful or whether he’s so committed to the war that he’s deliberately trolling.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/russias-putin-outlines-conditions-for-peace-talks-with-ukraine.html
Propaganda 101.2 -
Surprising (to me, anyway) coalition deal in South Africa between the ANC, the DA and IFP.
Zuma left out in the cold; predictably he now has a proper cob on about it.0 -
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Sunak receives letter from Gambling Commission over aide who placed bet on July election
PM is understood to have been contacted earlier this week about Craig Williams being the subject of an investigation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/14/rishi-sunak-gambling-commission-craig-williams-bet-election/0 -
I'm the son of someone who changed jobs (and moved house) every 5 years, so i wouldn't know how to categorise what their principal profession was.
I think they were a civil engineer at the time if my birth, if that is what counts.0 -
What an idiot.TheScreamingEagles said:Sunak receives letter from Gambling Commission over aide who placed bet on July election
PM is understood to have been contacted earlier this week about Craig Williams being the subject of an investigation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/14/rishi-sunak-gambling-commission-craig-williams-bet-election/
He forgot to post a tip on here so we could all pile in.7 -
Rayner never supported Corbyn or his ideas. She is much closer politically to the centre of Labour.Northern_Al said:
What's most impressive about Rayner is how disciplined she is, how good a team player. I strongly suspect that she would have liked to present a more radical manifesto offer (taxing the rich more, a bit more nationalisation etc.), but she has ensured that no chink of light could be exposed between her and Starmer's views. Such loyalty to the collective cause is something she can be rightly proud of.nico679 said:Angela Rayner is a huge plus for Labour and that’s why the DM and Tories went after her .
If she had been charged that would have been a huge blow to the party and impacted their election chances .
Thankfully that black swan didn’t get off the ground .0 -
Especially when produced as opinion poll by a member of the BPCLostPassword said:
There have been lots of different ways of weighting the sample in the past. Some posters have used newspaper readership and others not.stodge said:
I'm not the expert some on here are but it's an important nuance, isn't it?LostPassword said:
It's only a different way of weighting the sample. It's not a fundamental methodological difference.stodge said:Afternoon all
Sorry to carry this over FPT but just to mention to @TSE and others the wording in the YouGov data tables:
Westminster Voting Intention
[Headline voting intention projected by YouGov MRP model]
To repeat, this isn't a standard opinion poll and shouldn't be treated as such. It's an extrapolation from the MRP model which is a different thing.
I think the weighting process is critical and it would be helpful (though it'll never happen) to determine how the sample has been weighted and on what criteria.
Are YouGov suggesting other pollsters are over-sampling Labour voters and under-representing LDs and Reform? It's a theory which we'll know more about in three weeks.
The other thing was the level of Don't Knows (15%) which runs well ahead of other pollsters (around 10%).
I agree that it would be interesting to get into the detail of what the differences are, and see if there's any way to test the validity of the assumptions used. But that's a world away from dismissing the poll as, "not an opinion poll."0 -
I'm a great-Grandson of an Austro-Hungarian count (who probably greatly enjoyed was ruined by whoring and gambling). Do I get my silver mine back?Casino_Royale said:I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?0 -
on Avon?Scott_xP said:The Lib Dem leaflets in Stratford have "Labour can't win here" barcharts on them
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It's avoiding that scenario which explains why Ukraine has been so keen to put all these security agreements to paper.darkage said:
The 'deal' on this will be initiated by the US, when it decides the current situation cannot last. It will probably be similar to what Putin is suggesting. But it is unlikely to be a real peace agreement, because Russia will use the time to prepare the next attack. So the conflict which began in 2014 continues until such point as a strategic security settlement is reached with Russia. In the end you either destroy Russia, or you reach an agreement with it about the security situation in Europe, those are the two options. If you can't beat it, then the latter is the only option.kle4 said:
Quite. He'll take what he can. The reason nations belatedly backed Ukraine this time and not over Crimea was recognising how the prior approach did not work and has led to more violence down the line. Slowly but surely nations will forget that lesson if they are not careful.ToryJim said:
I deprecate death and destruction of war as much as the next person, but I don’t think that negotiation in this instance is wise. Most people can work out that Putin will use any negotiated agreement as a way to reconstruct his forces and then come back for another slice. I think Ukraine and the allies are correct to reject any approach that gives Putin anything whatsoever. It’s not about appeasement but about a hard headed, but belated, understanding of the character of the person in the Kremlin.Ghedebrav said:
I guess we need starting points. Albeit red lines here that will be light years apart form each other.ToryJim said:I see Putin has proposed a basis for a ceasefire which amounts to “give me all your lunch money and I’ll definitely stop punching you”. I can’t work out whether he is so delusional he thinks this approach has any likelihood of being successful or whether he’s so committed to the war that he’s deliberately trolling.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/russias-putin-outlines-conditions-for-peace-talks-with-ukraine.html
I do believe there will need to be some concessions from the Ukraine side, but how this can happen I don't know - certainly I can't imagine any scenario that isn't also somehow up problems for the future (the whole Azov Brigade thing is real).
This war cannot go on forever. It's not about appeasement, it's about stopping people getting killed. Even the vaguest talk of ceasefire, I have to hope is a positive step.
Then, even if the election of Trump turns off the tap of US support, there's a structure of agreements with other countries so that Ukraine can fight on.
They do not intend to give up.0 -
Unfortunately for the Tories, his seat is the only one in Wales the Tories are currently expected to hold according to most forecasts.RobD said:
What an idiot.TheScreamingEagles said:Sunak receives letter from Gambling Commission over aide who placed bet on July election
PM is understood to have been contacted earlier this week about Craig Williams being the subject of an investigation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/14/rishi-sunak-gambling-commission-craig-williams-bet-election/
He forgot to post a tip on here so we could all pile in.0 -
I am actually the son of a toolmaker.kle4 said:I'm the son of someone who changed jobs (and moved house) every 5 years, so i wouldn't know how to categorise what their principal profession was.
I think they were a civil engineer at the time if my birth, if that is what counts.
Dad used to operate presses at GEC as was, stamping out tools.0 -
Strange, I’m the son of count, don’t know where from though but whenever I asked my mother who my father was she would tell me he was a massive count. Must be where I get my build from I suppose.LostPassword said:
I'm a great-Grandson of an Austro-Hungarian count (who probably greatly enjoyed was ruined by whoring and gambling). Do I get my silver mine back?Casino_Royale said:I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?1 -
I am the son of a salesman and a secretary.
In order of precedence that puts me above a Marquis, but below a toolmaker.1 -
Its all going a bit Four Yorkshire Men again....Me, I was born down pit, didn't see light of day until I was 18.2
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When I was a solicitor the medical records use to have NFF on them which stood for Normal for Fife. Dare I ask if there is an equivalent?NickPalmer said:FPT
Thanks! The stroke was reasonably serious (4 days completely blotted out from my memory, but apparently I was in hospital), but it's left few physical marks - a tendency to want to sleep in the day now and then. Mentally it's left gaps when I'm tired - I was puzzling over the names of close relatives last night, which seem absolutely clear now - but I'm gradually returning to normal.
Seriously, its good to see you have made a good recovery.
0 -
Conservative Home Tory members poll finds 56% would back a deal with ReformUK, 37% opposed.
55% would also back Farage receiving the Conservative whip if he is elected as an MP in Clacton, again 37% opposed.
However 46% believe the party should focus on voters lost to Labour and the LDs to 42% on voters lost to Reform
https://conservativehome.com/2024/06/14/our-survey-members-back-a-reform-deal-and-giving-farage-the-whip-but-not-shifting-the-campaign-to-the-right/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Friday 14th June 2024&utm_content=Friday 14th June 2024+CID_80462b415161772952d63e7d95d989a0&utm_source=Daily Email&utm_term=Our survey Members back a Reform deal and giving Farage the whip - but not shifting the campaign to the right0 -
Roughly as it is now, I think, unless Reform are really charging ahead in places like East Anglia, the Thames Estuary, Durham, and the Conservatives are faring better in Blue Wall seats.Stuartinromford said:
I'm sure we'd all like to have the election now. Or better still, for it to have been yesterday.Casino_Royale said:I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?
As for the Reform Poll Lead thing... They're probably still (just) behind really. But once that happens, you don't need much noise to give them the occaisonal poll in front.
And that's bad enough.
Has anyone modelled the worst possible RefCon split? The one that costs the Conservatives the most seats without Reform picking up more than a handful?
Hertsmere is a good example. It went 62% Conservative to 21% Labour in 2024. One can assume the combined Conservative/Reform share would be 52% on current polling, while Labour would be on about 30%. If the Conservative and Reform shares split evenly, Labour would edge it.
If the Conservatives recover back into the mid twenties, they probably save a lot of seats. If Reform advance into the mid twenties, they gain them.1 -
I find the idea of the profession being written down somewhat odd. Do people have professions anymore? If you change jobs entirely should the birth certificate get updated?Farooq said:
It's the moment of fertilisation that counts. That's when your DNA is made. Even if they later change jobs, it's fixed.kle4 said:I'm the son of someone who changed jobs (and moved house) every 5 years, so i wouldn't know how to categorise what their principal profession was.
I think they were a civil engineer at the time if my birth, if that is what counts.
My mother is a seamstress and my father was a cloth wholesaler. It's in my jeans.0 -
Best wishes Nick.NickPalmer said:FPT
Thanks! The stroke was reasonably serious (4 days completely blotted out from my memory, but apparently I was in hospital), but it's left few physical marks - a tendency to want to sleep in the day now and then. Mentally it's left gaps when I'm tired - I was puzzling over the names of close relatives last night, which seem absolutely clear now - but I'm gradually returning to normal.4 -
A surgeon-filmmaker? ... gosh, exotic.WhisperingOracle said:
I'm the grandson of a surgeon-filmmaker, and descended from of a couple of 19th century Liberal MP's.Casino_Royale said:I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?
I also demand an election in my image.
"Cut!"2 -
"But the Prime Minister’s position is said to be that he is happy to co-operate if needed and urges others to do likewise if requested to do so by those investigating."RobD said:
What an idiot.TheScreamingEagles said:Sunak receives letter from Gambling Commission over aide who placed bet on July election
PM is understood to have been contacted earlier this week about Craig Williams being the subject of an investigation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/14/rishi-sunak-gambling-commission-craig-williams-bet-election/
He forgot to post a tip on here so we could all pile in.
Sounds like a throwing to the wolves to me, nothing to stop him saying Nobody knew except me (if that were true).0 -
As soon as Crossover happened, this was coming…
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.1 -
To be fair, Rishi is also very keen to tell us about his parental background.Casino_Royale said:I presume this has been focus-grouped to death and it really helps SKS, or else he wouldn't keep saying it, but it's a bit odd.
Who cares what your Dad or Mum did?
It's you we're interested in.
By the way, did you know they ran a pharmacy?0 -
My grandfather became a social documentarist and a social author from being a surgeon.turbotubbs said:
I find the idea of the profession being written down somewhat odd. Do people have professions anymore? If you change jobs entirely should the birth certificate get updated?Farooq said:
It's the moment of fertilisation that counts. That's when your DNA is made. Even if they later change jobs, it's fixed.kle4 said:I'm the son of someone who changed jobs (and moved house) every 5 years, so i wouldn't know how to categorise what their principal profession was.
I think they were a civil engineer at the time if my birth, if that is what counts.
My mother is a seamstress and my father was a cloth wholesaler. It's in my jeans.
I think he was generally thought of as "odd", or a dropout having no profession, by his class peers and family.0 -
For me that would be a red line. I am bracing myself to vote Tory but I will not vote for Reform or anyone who does a deal with them.HYUFD said:Conservative Home Tory members poll finds 56% would back a deal with ReformUK, 37% opposed.
55% would also back Farage receiving the Conservative whip if he is elected as an MP in Clacton, again 37% opposed.
However 46% believe the party should focus on voters lost to Labour and the LDs to 42% on voters lost to Reform
https://conservativehome.com/2024/06/14/our-survey-members-back-a-reform-deal-and-giving-farage-the-whip-but-not-shifting-the-campaign-to-the-right/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Friday 14th June 2024&utm_content=Friday 14th June 2024+CID_80462b415161772952d63e7d95d989a0&utm_source=Daily Email&utm_term=Our survey Members back a Reform deal and giving Farage the whip - but not shifting the campaign to the right2 -
Anyone can shout cut! The hard part is splicing things together in the edit suite.kinabalu said:
A surgeon-filmmaker? ... gosh, exotic.WhisperingOracle said:
I'm the grandson of a surgeon-filmmaker, and descended from of a couple of 19th century Liberal MP's.Casino_Royale said:I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?
I also demand an election in my image.
"Cut!"
Reminds me of the old joke - what do you get when you cross a goat with an octopus? Kicked off your PhD with a reprimand from the university ethics committee...2 -
My daddy was a gambling manFarooq said:
It's the moment of fertilisation that counts. That's when your DNA is made. Even if they later change jobs, it's fixed.kle4 said:I'm the son of someone who changed jobs (and moved house) every 5 years, so i wouldn't know how to categorise what their principal profession was.
I think they were a civil engineer at the time if my birth, if that is what counts.
My mother is a seamstress and my father was a cloth wholesaler. It's in my jeans.
Way down in New Orleans0 -
In other news about Rishi Sunak.
After the revelation about his hardships as a boy he will hence forth be known as
No dishy Rishi.
End of announcement5 -
His post is inaccurate. He is only ahead of the Tories in one poll – singular. Fake news from Nigel!!PedestrianRock said:As soon as Crossover happened, this was coming…
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.0 -
Heh, yes a very interesting person.kinabalu said:
A surgeon-filmmaker? ... gosh, exotic.WhisperingOracle said:
I'm the grandson of a surgeon-filmmaker, and descended from of a couple of 19th century Liberal MP's.Casino_Royale said:I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?
I also demand an election in my image.
"Cut!"
A little bit cerebral and forbidding at times, but also very humane, I think, looking at his output.1 -
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.PedestrianRock said:As soon as Crossover happened, this was coming…
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?0 -
Yes, about a third of those Tory voters and members still remaining like you would go LD if any deal or merger with Reform, though the majority would join up with Farage's party.DavidL said:
For me that would be a red line. I am bracing myself to vote Tory but I will not vote for Reform or anyone who does a deal with them.HYUFD said:Conservative Home Tory members poll finds 56% would back a deal with ReformUK, 37% opposed.
55% would also back Farage receiving the Conservative whip if he is elected as an MP in Clacton, again 37% opposed.
However 46% believe the party should focus on voters lost to Labour and the LDs to 42% on voters lost to Reform
https://conservativehome.com/2024/06/14/our-survey-members-back-a-reform-deal-and-giving-farage-the-whip-but-not-shifting-the-campaign-to-the-right/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Friday 14th June 2024&utm_content=Friday 14th June 2024+CID_80462b415161772952d63e7d95d989a0&utm_source=Daily Email&utm_term=Our survey Members back a Reform deal and giving Farage the whip - but not shifting the campaign to the right
Reform would though also add a few of the white working class Leave voters they have been picking up from Labour who never voted Tory before Boris and likely never would again1 -
Somewhat better than my effort from a month or two back. Damn youFairliered said:Keir Starmer was a toolmaker’s son
And when his candidate would visit, he'd come along
When they gathered 'round and started canvassin’
That's when Keir would take me votin’
Through the hustings, we'd go walkin'
Then, he'd look into my eyes
Lord knows, to my surprise.
The only boy who could ever reach me
Was the son of a toolmaker man
The only boy who could ever teach me
Was the son of a toolmaker man
Yes, he was, he was
Ooh, yes, he was, uh
0 -
Wow. It's the speed of the smile dropping off her face at the end.williamglenn said:Not the warmest greeting from Meloni for Macron;
https://x.com/vucciria79/status/1801533359085981935
0 -
I'll give you that one.bigjohnowls said:In other news about Rishi Sunak.
After the revelation about his hardships as a boy he will hence forth be known as
No dishy Rishi.
End of announcement
Quite droll.1 -
No - you get hired by a Chinese lab, next to a wet market.kyf_100 said:
Anyone can shout cut! The hard part is splicing things together in the edit suite.kinabalu said:
A surgeon-filmmaker? ... gosh, exotic.WhisperingOracle said:
I'm the grandson of a surgeon-filmmaker, and descended from of a couple of 19th century Liberal MP's.Casino_Royale said:I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?
I also demand an election in my image.
"Cut!"
Reminds me of the old joke - what do you get when you cross a goat with an octopus? Kicked off your PhD with a reprimand from the university ethics committee...0 -
Luxury.FrancisUrquhart said:Its all going a bit Four Yorkshire Men again....Me, I was born down pit, didn't see light of day until I was 18.
0 -
Head of BBC “which fucking idiots gave this Farage guy all the airtime?”williamglenn said:
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.PedestrianRock said:As soon as Crossover happened, this was coming…
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?0 -
...don't call me Shirley..Farooq said:
Stamping them out? That makes him a tool destroyer, shirley.Daveyboy1961 said:
I am actually the son of a toolmaker.kle4 said:I'm the son of someone who changed jobs (and moved house) every 5 years, so i wouldn't know how to categorise what their principal profession was.
I think they were a civil engineer at the time if my birth, if that is what counts.
Dad used to operate presses at GEC as was, stamping out tools.
0 -
Mrs Macon has nothing to worry about, compared to Mrs Sunak...Luckyguy1983 said:
Wow. It's the speed of the smile dropping off her face at the end.williamglenn said:Not the warmest greeting from Meloni for Macron;
https://x.com/vucciria79/status/18015333590859819350 -
It is rather early for such speculation. Reform have only been ahead in a single poll, and that is a survey that many PBers have queried because it is an MRP extrapolation rather than a poll in the classic sense.williamglenn said:
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.PedestrianRock said:As soon as Crossover happened, this was coming…
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?1 -
The Tories have "Labour winning here on the way to a super majority if you don't vote for no dishy Rishi".Scott_xP said:The Lib Dem leaflets in Stratford have "Labour can't win here" barcharts on them
0 -
I'd be asking questions about Macron if Meloni was a Macron-enthusiast.williamglenn said:Not the warmest greeting from Meloni for Macron;
https://x.com/vucciria79/status/18015333590859819350 -
yesMarqueeMark said:
on Avon?Scott_xP said:The Lib Dem leaflets in Stratford have "Labour can't win here" barcharts on them
0 -
Given how much the BBC loves giving Farage airtime - of all currently active politicians, he's the one featured most on Question Time - you can just imagine the rending of clothes and gnashing of teeth that would ensue within the BBC if that were to happen.williamglenn said:
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.PedestrianRock said:As soon as Crossover happened, this was coming…
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?0 -
Yes as Rishi and Starmer wouldn't turn up if Farage was allowed in.williamglenn said:
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.PedestrianRock said:As soon as Crossover happened, this was coming…
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
Farage has been in 2 debates with the LDs, Greens, SNP etc as well as Mordaunt and Rayner and if you included him you would have to add them too given they have MPs already0 -
Although Farage is twisting things, I think there is a bit of a fair point here.
The 7 way debates are just too many people, 3-4 is the max you can have. I am not sure why SNP, PC, have to be invited to every national debate and green's are polling very low amount.
Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, Reform for at least one debate is fair.4 -
It's very hard to come up with an objective set of criteria that is realistic and also allows for change.williamglenn said:
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.PedestrianRock said:As soon as Crossover happened, this was coming…
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
I suspect, though, that it would be Sunak and Starmer who would insist on Farage not being invited to the debate, and the BBC would hide behind Reform's pathetic tally of existing councillors and MPs to explain their non-participation.0 -
BBC putting Farage on QT is all about the clickbait. Same as putting all the numpty celebs on. It stopped being a serious show ages ago. Most weeks is it pretty unknown MPs from Tory and Labour, occasional Lib Dem, then the rest of the panel made up with journalists and celebs.El_Capitano said:
Given how much the BBC loves giving Farage airtime - of all currently active politicians, he's the one featured most on Question Time - you can just imagine the rending of clothes and gnashing of teeth that would ensue within the BBC if that were to happen.williamglenn said:
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.PedestrianRock said:As soon as Crossover happened, this was coming…
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?0 -
One interesting question for post election is about the future of the LDs. Their activists have always been quite left wing, but if they elect a bunch of new MPs in blue wall seats then those MPs could well be centrist, if not slightly centre-right. If the Tories suffer an ELE, we could also see a split where councillors and activitsts on the right go to Reform, while the centrists move to LD.HYUFD said:
Yes, about a third of those Tory voters and members still remaining like you would go LD if any deal or merger with Reform, though the majority would join up with Farage's party.DavidL said:
For me that would be a red line. I am bracing myself to vote Tory but I will not vote for Reform or anyone who does a deal with them.HYUFD said:Conservative Home Tory members poll finds 56% would back a deal with ReformUK, 37% opposed.
55% would also back Farage receiving the Conservative whip if he is elected as an MP in Clacton, again 37% opposed.
However 46% believe the party should focus on voters lost to Labour and the LDs to 42% on voters lost to Reform
https://conservativehome.com/2024/06/14/our-survey-members-back-a-reform-deal-and-giving-farage-the-whip-but-not-shifting-the-campaign-to-the-right/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Friday 14th June 2024&utm_content=Friday 14th June 2024+CID_80462b415161772952d63e7d95d989a0&utm_source=Daily Email&utm_term=Our survey Members back a Reform deal and giving Farage the whip - but not shifting the campaign to the right
Reform would though also add a few of the white working class Leave voters they have been picking up from Labour who never voted Tory before Boris and likely never would again1 -
Indeed - there's also the LDs to consider who are not far behind the Tories currentlywilliamglenn said:
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.PedestrianRock said:As soon as Crossover happened, this was coming…
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?0 -
They could also bill it as incumbent v nearest challenger.LostPassword said:
It's very hard to come up with an objective set of criteria that is realistic and also allows for change.williamglenn said:
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.PedestrianRock said:As soon as Crossover happened, this was coming…
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
I suspect, though, that it would be Sunak and Starmer who would insist on Farage not being invited to the debate, and the BBC would hide behind Reform's pathetic tally of existing councillors and MPs to explain their non-participation.1 -
Every chance super Ed will be 3rd by them.williamglenn said:
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.PedestrianRock said:As soon as Crossover happened, this was coming…
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
Cant really have a 1st vs 4th only debate0 -
...
Sunak doesn't strike me as a huge ladies man, but hey, you never know.FrancisUrquhart said:
Mrs Macon has nothing to worry about, compared to Mrs Sunak...Luckyguy1983 said:
Wow. It's the speed of the smile dropping off her face at the end.williamglenn said:Not the warmest greeting from Meloni for Macron;
https://x.com/vucciria79/status/18015333590859819350 -
Yes, that's more the 'snip', isn't it. Massive synergy between the 2 professions when you think about it. Although I wouldn't want Tarantino taking my appendix out.kyf_100 said:
Anyone can shout cut! The hard part is splicing things together in the edit suite.kinabalu said:
A surgeon-filmmaker? ... gosh, exotic.WhisperingOracle said:
I'm the grandson of a surgeon-filmmaker, and descended from of a couple of 19th century Liberal MP's.Casino_Royale said:I'm the son of an insurance broker, and the grandson of Army Officers.
Can I have my election now please?
I also demand an election in my image.
"Cut!"
Reminds me of the old joke - what do you get when you cross a goat with an octopus? Kicked off your PhD with a reprimand from the university ethics committee...0 -
Given how weak he is and the way Meloni was all over him, I am not sure he would have much say in the matter...Luckyguy1983 said:...
Sunak doesn't strike me as a huge ladies man, but hey, you never know.FrancisUrquhart said:
Mrs Macon has nothing to worry about, compared to Mrs Sunak...Luckyguy1983 said:
Wow. It's the speed of the smile dropping off her face at the end.williamglenn said:Not the warmest greeting from Meloni for Macron;
https://x.com/vucciria79/status/18015333590859819350 -
Having the SNP and PC there really distorts things because they're not putting forward a programme of government for the UK.FrancisUrquhart said:Although Farage is twisting things, I think there is a bit of a fair point here.
The 7 way debates are just too many people, 3-4 is the max you can have. I am not sure why SNP, PC, have to be invited to every national debate and green's are polling very low amount.
Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, Reform for at least one debate is fair.1 -
What's the Unknown Stuntman up to today? 15 pint pub crawl drinking challenge?1
-
There's an argument that they should, for the main debate, only include leaders with a realistic chance of being PM after the election.williamglenn said:
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.PedestrianRock said:As soon as Crossover happened, this was coming…
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
But I guess Starmer debating himself might not draw in the crowds 1 -
Keir was the toolmaker’s son....TheScreamingEagles said:Hope people will spot my subtle musical references.
And John Kettley was a weatherman....
No? That wasn't it?1 -
Only when it turns people into Tories!BatteryCorrectHorse said:The Tories sneer at a genuine working class chap who rose up the ranks to become - probably - the next PM. This current iteration of the Tory Party do not like aspiration and hard work.
0 -
A debate with those four - with the leaders of each - would be far more interesting.FrancisUrquhart said:Although Farage is twisting things, I think there is a bit of a fair point here.
The 7 way debates are just too many people, 3-4 is the max you can have. I am not sure why SNP, PC, have to be invited to every national debate and green's are polling very low amount.
Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, Reform for at least one debate is fair.
Two-way debates are too linear back and forth.
More people offers the chance for a more dynamic debate, but seven is clearly far too many.
Reform are polling close to the Tories. The Lib Dems on several projections could end up with a similar number of seats to the Tories. I think it'd be fair to have a debate with all the potential major, national parties present.
(SNP only fights 50-odd seats, PC only 30-odd and Greens are only competitive in about two, with no chance of a Reform-style breakthrough this time).2 -
Germany vs Scotland in the football tonight, its a Alien vs Predator decision on who to support...1
-
Why do the Greens always get to debate? They poll sod all.0
-
ANC to form a coalition government in South Africa with liberal DA opposition and Zulu Inkatha Freedom Party
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cpvvl1xppdgt0 -
Scotland.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany vs Scotland in the football tonight, its a Alien vs Predator decision on who to support...
The Tartan Army deserve our support.4 -
Realistically the TV companies can't rearrange any of the debates on the basis of polls.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Indeed - there's also the LDs to consider who are not far behind the Tories currentlywilliamglenn said:
If they continue their momentum in the polls it will put the BBC in a very difficult position if they refuse.PedestrianRock said:As soon as Crossover happened, this was coming…
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1801596499735835075?s=46
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are taking part in a BBC debate on 26th June.
As we are now ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, I demand that Reform UK is a part of this debate.
If the BBC want a fight with me on this, they can have one.
Imagine if the polls on the eve of the debate are something like Labour 36%, Reform 23%, Tories 15%. Would they still try to exclude Farage from the main event?
Which do you use for starters? The most recent? The average over a month? A year?
Farage "demanding" to be included is as ridiculous as his claim that suddenly Starmer is PM and he's leader of the opposition based on a single poll
Sunak and the Tories should have stomped on this clown ages ago.
I wonder if the treasury will be going through the Reform Manifesto and telling us how much tax will rise to pay for it?0 -
How long is that going to last. ANC are proper left, DA are centre right and ZIF are proper right wing. I can't imagine they agree on anything.HYUFD said:ANC to form a coalition government in South Africa with liberal DA opposition and Zulu Inkatha Freedom Party
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cpvvl1xppdgt0 -
I thought this was a parody, when I saw the excerpt, but it's real. Keir Starmer interviewed by PinkNews:
PN: Now I want you to imagine that you’re in a gay bar…
SKS: Don’t have to imagine it, I’ve been in one many times!
PN: What are you ordering at the bar and what song is it going to take to get you on the dance floor?
SKS: A pint of lager. And what’s going to get me on the dance floor? I don’t know… “Sweet Caroline.”
https://www.thepinknews.com/2020/03/02/keir-starmer-labour-party-leadership-election-lgbt-rights-human-dignity-trust-trans/0 -
I would like to see him complete some form of South West London pub challenge. Could he nail a pint in every SW postal district, culminating with a whisky chase in the Red Lion, SW1?FrancisUrquhart said:What's the Unknown Stuntman up to today? 15 pint pub crawl drinking challenge?
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Shouldn’t that “is” be “was”? And the “are” “were”?Andy_JS said:
Unfortunately for the Tories, his seat is the only one in Wales the Tories are currently expected to hold according to most forecasts.RobD said:
What an idiot.TheScreamingEagles said:Sunak receives letter from Gambling Commission over aide who placed bet on July election
PM is understood to have been contacted earlier this week about Craig Williams being the subject of an investigation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/14/rishi-sunak-gambling-commission-craig-williams-bet-election/
He forgot to post a tip on here so we could all pile in.0
